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  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478
    SunnyJim said:

    TOPPING said:


    Please do not remind me, even tangentially, of that disgusting petrified shark in Iceland (the country).

    Taste? Texture? Cost? Accompaniments?

    Don't leave us hanging.
    That’s a bit of an issue round here. (Priti Patel’s constituency)


  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614
    viewcode said:

    That's Professor Stephen Fisher, you dork! One of the best people in the whole field in the UK! Honestly, I give up... :)
    "How the betting markets for seats and the betting market for a Conservative majority can be reconciled, we’re not sure."

    Experts, huh! What do they know?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    edited November 2019
    You might have a typo, adds up to 99% on my end.
  • theakestheakes Posts: 931
    Looks like another hung parliament. Only answer then is what
    either another Referendum or just put the whole thing to a watery grave, a la Bin Laden.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614
    HYUFD said:
    Why ask about a general election tomorrow and not on 12th December? Fishy.....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    HYUFD said:
    Why ask about a general election tomorrow and not on 12th December? Fishy.....
    Looks pretty standard to me.
  • HYUFD said:
    Why ask about a general election tomorrow and not on 12th December? Fishy.....
    Calm down dear, this is standard practice amongst all pollsters.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited November 2019
    It would be 4% on a sample size of 410 for a perfectly representative sample with just two candidates, at 90% confidence. For this poll, more than 4%, depending on how many refused/undecided.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614
    RobD said:

    You might have a typo, adds up to 99% on my end.
    He's looking at gains v losses....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    RobD said:

    You might have a typo, adds up to 99% on my end.
    He's looking at gains v losses....
    UKIP, I imagine?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    RobD said:

    viewcode said:

    That's Professor Stephen Fisher, you dork! One of the best people in the whole field in the UK! Honestly, I give up... :)
    I only look at polls commissioned by knights of the realm.
    :)
  • SunnyJim said:

    TOPPING said:


    Please do not remind me, even tangentially, of that disgusting petrified shark in Iceland (the country).

    Taste? Texture? Cost? Accompaniments?

    Don't leave us hanging.
    That’s a bit of an issue round here. (Priti Patel’s constituency)


    "You are either Witham or Against 'em!"
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,236

    Why on earth are you campaigning for *this* Labour Party led by Corbyn?

    I think it’s utterly shameful what you’re doing.

    Because I think this country is in dire need of policies which will overtly and strongly favour the millions of people who currently have little in the way of wealth or opportunity at the expense of those who have a surfeit of both.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:
    Why ask about a general election tomorrow and not on 12th December? Fishy.....
    Looks pretty standard to me.
    http://i.imgur.com/F636xiP.gif
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156

    Meanwhile, in revisionist bullshit news:
    https://twitter.com/holland_tom/status/1192095471277359105

    It would be rather difficult to discuss history without using terms used at the time, or for most history in discussing it.
  • RobD said:

    You might have a typo, adds up to 99% on my end.
    He's looking at gains v losses....
    They appear to have used the Labour 2017 figure both for calculating the Lib Dem rise (which is in fact 21.5%) and for calculating the Labour fall.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614

    HYUFD said:
    Why ask about a general election tomorrow and not on 12th December? Fishy.....
    Calm down dear, this is standard practice amongst all pollsters.
    Is it? When the date of the election is known?
  • The question in all these polls seems to ask just how far can labour drop and could we see a UK wide disaster for them with the conservatives gaining a workable majoroty but the lib dems really adding to their haul
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131

    HYUFD said:
    Why ask about a general election tomorrow and not on 12th December? Fishy.....
    I don't know if you are being sarcastic, but "if there were a general election tomorrow" is standard wording.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Shes ex UUP, they might be in with a shout
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156
    RobD said:

    viewcode said:

    That's Professor Stephen Fisher, you dork! One of the best people in the whole field in the UK! Honestly, I give up... :)
    I only look at polls commissioned by knights of the realm.
    Not former members of the House of Lords a la the good Lord Ashcroft?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    edited November 2019

    HYUFD said:
    Why ask about a general election tomorrow and not on 12th December? Fishy.....
    No just your in built in bias.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,236

    I think at the moment May's deal was published, if either she or Corbyn had made a bold move and backed a referendum, it would have become inevitable.

    Perhaps so. But a mighty big ask at a time when the 2016 Ref and the 2017 GE which promised to implement it were so fresh.
  • They'll fancy their chances. Huge shoes for anyone to fill.
  • It would be 4% on a sample size of 410 for a perfectly representative sample with just two candidates, at 90% confidence. For this poll, more than 4%, depending on how many refused/undecided.
    For a perfectly random sample /not/ a representative one.
  • viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:
    Why ask about a general election tomorrow and not on 12th December? Fishy.....
    I don't know if you are being sarcastic, but "if there were a general election tomorrow" is standard wording.
    This is Heidi Allan''s former seat so not really surprising
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    kinabalu said:

    Why on earth are you campaigning for *this* Labour Party led by Corbyn?

    I think it’s utterly shameful what you’re doing.

    Because I think this country is in dire need of policies which will overtly and strongly favour the millions of people who currently have little in the way of wealth or opportunity at the expense of those who have a surfeit of both.
    Well said!

    Casino Royale's comment is quite disgraceful. Whatever your views on Corbyn, this country needs the Labour Party to redress the selfish and narcissistic direction the tories are taking it.
  • That's a real shame, one of the few who has actually impressed in this Parliament.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    You might have a typo, adds up to 99% on my end.
    He's looking at gains v losses....
    UKIP, I imagine?
    Didn't stand.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156
    HYUFD said:
    People love having options. He'd best hope they don't like Brexiting, as that's his target.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    HYUFD said:
    Why ask about a general election tomorrow and not on 12th December? Fishy.....
    Calm down dear, this is standard practice amongst all pollsters.
    Is it? When the date of the election is known?
    'Imagine the lovely Jo Swinson was giving you a mum cuddle. How would you vote in the GE?'
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124

    'Deluded' is the word which immediately springs to mind.
    That's exactly the same poll > national %ages > constituency projection > constituency %ages > LD bar chart nonsense for which one pollster wrote them a formal complaint today.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156
    HYUFD said:
    Well it's a more reasonable offer to the Tories than 'dump the deal you based your reputation on', although still a tough sell for the Tories.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    kinabalu said:

    Why on earth are you campaigning for *this* Labour Party led by Corbyn?

    I think it’s utterly shameful what you’re doing.

    Because I think this country is in dire need of policies which will overtly and strongly favour the millions of people who currently have little in the way of wealth or opportunity at the expense of those who have a surfeit of both.
    Well said!

    Casino Royale's comment is quite disgraceful. Whatever your views on Corbyn, this country needs the Labour Party to redress the selfish and narcissistic direction the tories are taking it.
    I think the country needs a credible left of centre alternative. I don't think it needs the Labour party though.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    HYUFD said:
    Why ask about a general election tomorrow and not on 12th December? Fishy.....
    Calm down dear, this is standard practice amongst all pollsters.
    Is it? When the date of the election is known?
    Yup. Would bugger up comparability otherwise.

    (I really thought you were joking).

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    JohnO said:


    GIN1138 said:
    "Recent poll analysis"... by whom and how analysed? it sounds like tosh.
    And it’s utter tosh of the toshest tripe. There’s been no polling in E&W and their candidate, Monica Harding, had to issue an humiliating apology (gleefully reported by Guido and others) for misrepresenting a Survation national survey and applying some form of flavible to it. She then whimpered about it being an innocent rookie error.....only to find that the candidate in Putney had done exactly the same. No one in this Board will be in the least bit surprised.

    I haven’t yet been out haranguing the good denizens of the constituency but reports from those who have are pretty sanguine. There’s little doubt that Raab’s majority will fall - inevitable given the intense LD campaign - but at this stage I’d hazard a hold of between 10-15 k.
    The Good Lord JohnO has spoken! :D
  • They'll fancy their chances. Huge shoes for anyone to fill.
    Superb MP. Another considerable loss to the House.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156
    Shame. And after SF made such a kind offer as well.
  • kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Well it's a more reasonable offer to the Tories than 'dump the deal you based your reputation on', although still a tough sell for the Tories.
    Give him time. He is under a lot of pressure both within and without TBP to strike a deal

    If he did not stand in South Cambridgeshire 7% of the vote is free
  • PierrotPierrot Posts: 112
    kinabalu said:

    johnt said:

    The problem with that approach is it is two years out of date. Labour should have insisted on a referendum on May's deal 18 months ago. That was the time when it should have been called. But actually they refused to get off the fence and the Tories managed to lose their majority and build the rhetoric that the way to break the Brexit impasse is to have a general election.

    Having agreed to that approach I personally see no need to have Ref2 to stop Brexit. Parties stand on a manifesto to form a government and the winner implements that manifesto. So if a party was to stand on a manifesto to revoke and win the election (which was called to break the Brexit impasse) then they can just revoke and we can all move on.

    Personally while I am not opposed to Labour's position on a question of principle it is, in my view, two years too late.

    Take your point but I do not think Labour could have forced Ref2 through the parliament just deceased. My view, with the perfect wisdom of hindsight, is they should have let May's Deal pass. That IMO would not have been the best thing for stopping Brexit (obvs) but it would have set up better GE prospects for Labour than we have right now.
    Labour aren't doing so badly. There's been an idiotically arrogant statement by JRM about the Grenfell victims, applauded by Andrew Bridgen just so that voters can know that such obnoxiousness isn't restricted to those with posh accents; and a lot of the news has been about right-wing parties opposed to Labour (Tories and the Brexit Party) squabbling and taking shots at each other, with some saying they should team up and others saying the Tories should refuse any BXP overture, and probably most voters not having much certainty about what on earth will happen between those two parties before polling day, except that they'll probably continue to be sniping at each other. All of this is good for Labour, who are in a very slightly better position in the polls than they were when the election was called. Whether they win depends on what issues dominate. If they make it about class they're in with a chance. Most Tories will absolutely hate that. I doubt references to Stalin will play any better than references to the IRA did two years ago. Ditto Hamas. (Kulaks weren't at all similar to billionaires, but I'm a pedant.) I wonder how many voters under 50 could recognise a picture of Stalin or come up with five facts about him.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131

    It would be 4% on a sample size of 410 for a perfectly representative sample with just two candidates, at 90% confidence. For this poll, more than 4%, depending on how many refused/undecided.
    For a perfectly random sample /not/ a representative one.
    Point one. It has to be a perfectly random samp!e from a representative sample frame.
    Point two. Following recent polling failures and following the US example, the BPC recommended that pollsters affiliated to the BPC should abandon margins of error derived from theory, and instead use historical ones. The wording of the caveats at the bottom of the polls has been changed to reflect this. If the pollster is BPC affiliated then get the PDF and look for the wording where it tells you what the margin of error is believed to be for that poll.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Well it's a more reasonable offer to the Tories than 'dump the deal you based your reputation on', although still a tough sell for the Tories.
    Give him time. He is under a lot of pressure both within and without TBP to strike a deal

    Is he? Without, certainly, but how much within? There's been some disquiet from a few candidates but with the Tories looking reasonable for a majority anyway how much pressure to pullout is there? Unless Labour close the gap fast it might be too late to pull back.
  • This is the one and only moment for Brexit


    Boris majority, we exit on the 31st January and both revoke and a referendum dies

    Anything else and it is remain

    Of course if Boris wins then re-join becomes a respectable policy position from 1st February
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    Who were all those saying she’d seen the polling, and...
  • Guido

    McDonnell reported to have demanded Treasury don't publish analysis of Labour's economic proposals. Am told Treasury expected foreign exchange controls to prevent a run on the pound. No wonder John McDonnell wants to keep that quiet.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614
    Nigelb said:

    Who were all those saying she’d seen the polling, and...
    Polling over the past two days....
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131

    HYUFD said:
    Why ask about a general election tomorrow and not on 12th December? Fishy.....
    Calm down dear, this is standard practice amongst all pollsters.
    Is it? When the date of the election is known?
    Yes. They work on existing practice then about a month before the election they make some adjustments and the wording may change. This is thought to be the reason why the YouGov
    Poll (not their MRP poll) did not do well in 2017.

    In short: not only is this standard operating procedure, they did this in 2017 and 2015 as well


  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Trump jr has outed the whistleblower on twitter. Tee hee.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Guido

    McDonnell reported to have demanded Treasury don't publish analysis of Labour's economic proposals. Am told Treasury expected foreign exchange controls to prevent a run on the pound. No wonder John McDonnell wants to keep that quiet.

    The newspaper (FT.) headlines said the opposite this morning that the civil service had been blocked by Johnson running the Labour Party proposals through treasury models.
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Well it's a more reasonable offer to the Tories than 'dump the deal you based your reputation on', although still a tough sell for the Tories.
    Give him time. He is under a lot of pressure both within and without TBP to strike a deal

    Is he? Without, certainly, but how much within? There's been some disquiet from a few candidates but with the Tories looking reasonable for a majority anyway how much pressure to pullout is there? Unless Labour close the gap fast it might be too late to pull back.
    Day by day he moves slightly and now he is talking of accepting the WDA

    Not much further for an agreement on the PDA and transistion
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131

    Guido

    McDonnell reported to have demanded Treasury don't publish analysis of Labour's economic proposals. Am told Treasury expected foreign exchange controls to prevent a run on the pound. No wonder John McDonnell wants to keep that quiet.

    Yes. Because a run on the pound is such a rare occurrence. That never happens. Oh dear me no.

    (Grinds teeth in frustration)
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    This is the one and only moment for Brexit


    Boris majority, we exit on the 31st January and both revoke and a referendum dies

    Anything else and it is remain

    Of course if Boris wins then re-join becomes a respectable policy position from 1st February


    Johnson wins, makes stupid promise to not extend transition, UK crashes out no deal on 31/12.
  • nichomar said:

    Guido

    McDonnell reported to have demanded Treasury don't publish analysis of Labour's economic proposals. Am told Treasury expected foreign exchange controls to prevent a run on the pound. No wonder John McDonnell wants to keep that quiet.

    The newspaper (FT.) headlines said the opposite this morning that the civil service had been blocked by Johnson running the Labour Party proposals through treasury models.
    I am sure you agree that that sums up a GE campaign
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386
    nichomar said:

    Guido

    McDonnell reported to have demanded Treasury don't publish analysis of Labour's economic proposals. Am told Treasury expected foreign exchange controls to prevent a run on the pound. No wonder John McDonnell wants to keep that quiet.

    The newspaper (FT.) headlines said the opposite this morning that the civil service had been blocked by Johnson running the Labour Party proposals through treasury models.
    Which is the more reliable source, Guido or the FT? Hmm.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    edited November 2019
    nichomar said:

    Guido

    McDonnell reported to have demanded Treasury don't publish analysis of Labour's economic proposals. Am told Treasury expected foreign exchange controls to prevent a run on the pound. No wonder John McDonnell wants to keep that quiet.

    The newspaper (FT.) headlines said the opposite this morning that the civil service had been blocked by Johnson running the Labour Party proposals through treasury models.
    Fair play to Johnson for that, although why the civil service is gung-ho about costing Labour's proposal sounds a bit suspicious.
  • nichomar said:

    This is the one and only moment for Brexit


    Boris majority, we exit on the 31st January and both revoke and a referendum dies

    Anything else and it is remain

    Of course if Boris wins then re-join becomes a respectable policy position from 1st February


    Johnson wins, makes stupid promise to not extend transition, UK crashes out no deal on 31/12.
    I recognise that and the date being 31st December 2020
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Regarding Farage's proposed pact, can someone with more mathematical nous than me tell me how many seats the Brexit Party would be more likely to win than the Conservatives?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    nichomar said:

    This is the one and only moment for Brexit


    Boris majority, we exit on the 31st January and both revoke and a referendum dies

    Anything else and it is remain

    Of course if Boris wins then re-join becomes a respectable policy position from 1st February


    Johnson wins, makes stupid promise to not extend transition, UK crashes out no deal on 31/12.
    Not no Deal, the Deal is the Withdrawal Agreement, just no further extension of the transition period during FTA negotiations with the EU
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    Trump jr has outed the whistleblower on twitter. Tee hee.

    Inciting campaigns of harassment and abuse to an unhinged mob. How funny!
  • RobD said:

    nichomar said:

    Guido

    McDonnell reported to have demanded Treasury don't publish analysis of Labour's economic proposals. Am told Treasury expected foreign exchange controls to prevent a run on the pound. No wonder John McDonnell wants to keep that quiet.

    The newspaper (FT.) headlines said the opposite this morning that the civil service had been blocked by Johnson running the Labour Party proposals through treasury models.
    Fair play to Johnson for that, although why the civil service is gung-ho about costing Labour's proposal sounds a bit suspicious.
    The Civil Service is supposed to be prepared for any government on Friday 13th.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    RobD said:

    nichomar said:

    Guido

    McDonnell reported to have demanded Treasury don't publish analysis of Labour's economic proposals. Am told Treasury expected foreign exchange controls to prevent a run on the pound. No wonder John McDonnell wants to keep that quiet.

    The newspaper (FT.) headlines said the opposite this morning that the civil service had been blocked by Johnson running the Labour Party proposals through treasury models.
    Fair play to Johnson for that, although why the civil service is gung-ho about costing Labour's proposal sounds a bit suspicious.
    Wasn't this a land grab by OBR, who wanted to cost out the prospecti of parties? I think Johnson blocked it because it's a double-edged sword.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Gabs2 said:

    Trump jr has outed the whistleblower on twitter. Tee hee.

    Inciting campaigns of harassment and abuse to an unhinged mob. How funny!
    He's CIA, I think he will be fine
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    edited November 2019
    kle4 said:

    Shame. And after SF made such a kind offer as well.
    SF and SDLP got just 2% there last time combined.

    In 2005 Lady Hermon got 50% as the UUP candidate in North Down and the DUP got 35% so UUP could regain an MP
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    Gabs2 said:

    Trump jr has outed the whistleblower on twitter. Tee hee.

    Inciting campaigns of harassment and abuse to an unhinged mob. How funny!
    He's CIA, I think he will be fine
    And he just blew the whistle on illegal action by his superiors.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Shame. And after SF made such a kind offer as well.
    SF and SDLP got just 2% there last time combined
    It will be a DUP/UUP run off
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,236
    Brom said:

    I think the country needs a credible left of centre alternative. I don't think it needs the Labour party though.

    "Alternative" is the important word there.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688



    Guido

    McDonnell reported

    If that's Guido and he's using the word 'reported' I bet it's straight out of the Dominic Cummings deliberate lies pond
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,489
    Just a whiff of things moving against the Populist English Nationalist Front, in these opening hours of the campaign.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited November 2019
    Gabs2 said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Trump jr has outed the whistleblower on twitter. Tee hee.

    Inciting campaigns of harassment and abuse to an unhinged mob. How funny!
    He's CIA, I think he will be fine
    And he just blew the whistle on illegal action by his superiors.
    That he wasn't witness to and wasn't illegal. Hes an Obama holdover, Brennan plant and registered Democrat and his identity has been well known online for over two weeks.
    His name is also apparantly very likely to feature in the FISA abuse report.
    Trumps side arent the only ones that stink to high heaven
  • This is the one and only moment for Brexit


    Boris majority, we exit on the 31st January and both revoke and a referendum dies

    Anything else and it is remain

    Of course if Boris wins then re-join becomes a respectable policy position from 1st February

    Does anyone imagine we could rejoin on anything like the terms we enjoy now?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    HYUFD said:

    nichomar said:

    This is the one and only moment for Brexit


    Boris majority, we exit on the 31st January and both revoke and a referendum dies

    Anything else and it is remain

    Of course if Boris wins then re-join becomes a respectable policy position from 1st February


    Johnson wins, makes stupid promise to not extend transition, UK crashes out no deal on 31/12.
    Not no Deal, the Deal is the Withdrawal Agreement, just no further extension of the transition period during FTA negotiations with the EU
    First they are ongoing relationship discussions which may end up as a FTA. If there is no agreement on that relationship by the end of June and no application is made for an extension then if no agreement its no deal on 31/12. If you don’t know what is in the WA that’s your problem. There is no ongoing relationship in the WA just none binding declarations. Why do you think the ERG and eventually Farage will fall in behind Johnson. No deal is very much on the cards
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156
    edited November 2019
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Shame. And after SF made such a kind offer as well.
    SF and SDLP got just 2% there last time combined.

    In 2005 Lady Hermon got 50% as the UUP candidate and the DUP got 35% so UUP could regain an MP
    Sure, but her majority was 3.1% last time, if she had stood and SF didn't it could have been crucial, so a nice gesture (unless it spurred people away from her!).

    It's a shame when NI only gets 2 parties, since with 1 being SF only 1 gets represented, so here's hoping SDLP and UUP do ok.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    edited November 2019
    I have been thinking. I am wondering if the best outcome of this election would be the Tories to win a majority of around 60 BUT at the same time all the Cabinet plus Francois and Duncan Smith lose their seats.

    That would kill off the nutters in the Labour Party, probably for good, get rid of this shambolic government and mean everyone who bet on a Labour gain in Uxbridge gets a payout.

    What’s not to like?

    Of course, it’s about as likely as an SNP government (for example, no way will Williamson lose his seat) but it would be immensely satisfying.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    edited November 2019

    nichomar said:

    This is the one and only moment for Brexit


    Boris majority, we exit on the 31st January and both revoke and a referendum dies

    Anything else and it is remain

    Of course if Boris wins then re-join becomes a respectable policy position from 1st February


    Johnson wins, makes stupid promise to not extend transition, UK crashes out no deal on 31/12.
    I recognise that and the date being 31st December 2020

    Of course, I did not mean this year. The extension does have to be agreed by 30/6 though
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    37th on the LD target list
  • ydoethur said:

    I have been thinking. I am wondering if the best outcome of this election would be the Tories to win a majority of around 60 BUT at the same time all the Cabinet plus Francois and Duncan Smith lose their seats.

    That would kill off the nutters in the Labour Party, probably for good, get rid of this shambolic government and mean everyone who bet on a Labour gain in Uxbridge gets a payout.

    What’s not to like?

    Of course, it’s about as likely as an SNP government (for example, no way will Williamson lose his seat) but it would be immensely satisfying.

    Works for me. When do we form the Facebook Group?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,234
    edited November 2019
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Swing state polling suggests Donald Trump's 2020 re-election chances are much better than presumed"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/11/04/swing-state-polling-suggests-donald-trumps-2020-re-election/

    Trump trails Biden by just 1% across key swing states in a new NYT poll and beats Sanders by 1% and Warren by 3%
    What do you make of the more recent polling that has Trumpton being shat on from a great height by both Biden and Warren?

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/national_general_election/
    National popular vote not swing state polls (even Hillary won the popular vote against Trump) and Emerson has it much closer even there
    With all due respect, you can lose the Presidential election with a 3% national vote lead. It might even be possible with a 4% or 5% one. It won't happen with a 10% one. At that point, the Dems are getting 20% more votes than the Republicans, and they ain't all piling up up in California.

    I'd also point out that the Siena College (no 538 rating) polls are out of line with the polls produced the previous day by Emerson College (an A- pollster). In Michigan (which Trump won narrowly), Emerson has Biden +12 and Sanders +14, against +2 and +1 for Siena.

    Siena, in fact, seems to get very similar results to Rasmussen. Which might, of course, be correct. But Rasmussen was predicting a Republican win in the midterms last year (the only pollster to do so) against an actual result of Dems +8.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131

    Gabs2 said:

    Trump jr has outed the whistleblower on twitter. Tee hee.

    Inciting campaigns of harassment and abuse to an unhinged mob. How funny!
    He's CIA, I think he will be fine
    Valerie Plame
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    It’s not acceptable for the treasury to use its resources to model Labours proposals . This was blocked by the Cabinet Secretary not Johnson .

    It was clearly a breach of impartiality to use civil servants before an election to effectively help the government . The fact that we’re even discussing this shows the depths that this rotten government has sunk to .

  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    RobD said:

    nichomar said:

    Guido

    McDonnell reported to have demanded Treasury don't publish analysis of Labour's economic proposals. Am told Treasury expected foreign exchange controls to prevent a run on the pound. No wonder John McDonnell wants to keep that quiet.

    The newspaper (FT.) headlines said the opposite this morning that the civil service had been blocked by Johnson running the Labour Party proposals through treasury models.
    Fair play to Johnson for that, although why the civil service is gung-ho about costing Labour's proposal sounds a bit suspicious.
    I actually think it is because if you run labour and Tory policies side by side it’s difficult to work out which are worse.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    edited November 2019
    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    nichomar said:

    This is the one and only moment for Brexit


    Boris majority, we exit on the 31st January and both revoke and a referendum dies

    Anything else and it is remain

    Of course if Boris wins then re-join becomes a respectable policy position from 1st February


    Johnson wins, makes stupid promise to not extend transition, UK crashes out no deal on 31/12.
    Not no Deal, the Deal is the Withdrawal Agreement, just no further extension of the transition period during FTA negotiations with the EU
    First they are ongoing relationship discussions which may end up as a FTA. If there is no agreement on that relationship by the end of June and no application is made for an extension then if no agreement its no deal on 31/12. If you don’t know what is in the WA that’s your problem. There is no ongoing relationship in the WA just none binding declarations. Why do you think the ERG and eventually Farage will fall in behind Johnson. No deal is very much on the cards
    No, it is not No Deal. No Deal means no Withdrawal Agreement agreed and passed and the EU refuses to start FTA talks with the UK as a result. If you don't understand what No Deal is defined as that is your problem.

    Even Canada agreed a FTA with the EU after 7 years so at most it is a delayed FTA and no extended transition period not No Deal
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    nico67 said:

    It’s not acceptable for the treasury to use its resources to model Labours proposals . This was blocked by the Cabinet Secretary not Johnson .

    It was clearly a breach of impartiality to use civil servants before an election to effectively help the government . The fact that we’re even discussing this shows the depths that this rotten government has sunk to .

    Yet the reports say otherwise, unless you have a source to back up your claim?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    It’s not acceptable for the treasury to use its resources to model Labours proposals . This was blocked by the Cabinet Secretary not Johnson .

    It was clearly a breach of impartiality to use civil servants before an election to effectively help the government . The fact that we’re even discussing this shows the depths that this rotten government has sunk to .

    Yet the reports say otherwise, unless you have a source to back up your claim?
    Nico67is right it was the cabinet secretary that blocked it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    nichomar said:

    RobD said:

    nichomar said:

    Guido

    McDonnell reported to have demanded Treasury don't publish analysis of Labour's economic proposals. Am told Treasury expected foreign exchange controls to prevent a run on the pound. No wonder John McDonnell wants to keep that quiet.

    The newspaper (FT.) headlines said the opposite this morning that the civil service had been blocked by Johnson running the Labour Party proposals through treasury models.
    Fair play to Johnson for that, although why the civil service is gung-ho about costing Labour's proposal sounds a bit suspicious.
    I actually think it is because if you run labour and Tory policies side by side it’s difficult to work out which are worse.
    I would have said the Tories are worse, actually. It depends a bit on what you mean by ‘worse’, though. If providing a fantasy of uncosted proposals based entirely on borrowing is worse than presenting a fantasy of uncosted proposals based on borrowing and tax rises that will actually bring in no extra money, then I’m giving it to the Tories.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    PClipp said:

    Charles said:

    I wonder what treats we have in store for the rest of the day. Film of Sajid Javid urinating on a homeless man? Liz Truss launching a verbal tirade against David Attenborough? Priti Patel musing on the good side of Fred West?

    The imagination of the Conservative master strategists to date has been flawless.

    Is urinating on homeless people something you think about a lot?
    IIRC, Mr Meeks is not a Conservative.
    In 30 years I’ve never heard a Tory suggest anything remotely as unpleasant as that.

    It suggests that @AlastairMeeks views fellow citizens with contempt

    What a nasty man he has turned into
    Having them “put down” is less unpleasant, or did you miss that comment?
    It’s less specific, and not someone i know, but not particularly nice
  • This is the one and only moment for Brexit


    Boris majority, we exit on the 31st January and both revoke and a referendum dies

    Anything else and it is remain

    Of course if Boris wins then re-join becomes a respectable policy position from 1st February

    Does anyone imagine we could rejoin on anything like the terms we enjoy now?
    Possibly but not certain
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    HYUFD said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    nichomar said:

    This is the one and only moment for Brexit


    Boris majority, we exit on the 31st January and both revoke and a referendum dies

    Anything else and it is remain

    Of course if Boris wins then re-join becomes a respectable policy position from 1st February


    Johnson wins, makes stupid promise to not extend transition, UK crashes out no deal on 31/12.
    Not no Deal, the Deal is the Withdrawal Agreement, just no further extension of the transition period during FTA negotiations with the EU
    First they are ongoing relationship discussions which may end up as a FTA. If there is no agreement on that relationship by the end of June and no application is made for an extension then if no agreement its no deal on 31/12. If you don’t know what is in the WA that’s your problem. There is no ongoing relationship in the WA just none binding declarations. Why do you think the ERG and eventually Farage will fall in behind Johnson. No deal is very much on the cards
    No, it is not No Deal. No Deal means no Withdrawal Agreement agreed and passed and the EU refuses to start FTA talks with the UK as a result. If you don't understand what No Deal is defined as that is your problem.

    Even Canada agreed a FTA with the EU after 7 years so at most it is a delayed FTA and no extended transition period not No Deal
    If the transition isn’t extended it’s no deal there is no middle way.


  • Guido

    McDonnell reported

    If that's Guido and he's using the word 'reported' I bet it's straight out of the Dominic Cummings deliberate lies pond
    Does that help you
  • nico67 said:

    It’s not acceptable for the treasury to use its resources to model Labours proposals . This was blocked by the Cabinet Secretary not Johnson .

    It was clearly a breach of impartiality to use civil servants before an election to effectively help the government . The fact that we’re even discussing this shows the depths that this rotten government has sunk to .

    So when the Treasury used its resources to predict a year long recession immediately after a Leave vote was that acceptable ?

    And why didn't the Cabinet Secretary block that ?

    IMO neither should have been allowed.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    nichomar said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    It’s not acceptable for the treasury to use its resources to model Labours proposals . This was blocked by the Cabinet Secretary not Johnson .

    It was clearly a breach of impartiality to use civil servants before an election to effectively help the government . The fact that we’re even discussing this shows the depths that this rotten government has sunk to .

    Yet the reports say otherwise, unless you have a source to back up your claim?
    Nico67is right it was the cabinet secretary that blocked it.
    Like I said, it'd be nice to have a source. The FT was claiming it was blocked by Johnson.
  • kinabalu said:

    Why on earth are you campaigning for *this* Labour Party led by Corbyn?

    I think it’s utterly shameful what you’re doing.

    Because I think this country is in dire need of policies which will overtly and strongly favour the millions of people who currently have little in the way of wealth or opportunity at the expense of those who have a surfeit of both.
    So why are you supporting a party that will make things immeasurably worse for them then?

    Use your brain man.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156



    Guido

    McDonnell reported

    If that's Guido and he's using the word 'reported' I bet it's straight out of the Dominic Cummings deliberate lies pond
    He's not very on message then, he has reported on Tory selection issues, and in his round ups for the last couple of days stated the cut through messages of the day are the ones not great for the Tories.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    edited November 2019

    This is the one and only moment for Brexit


    Boris majority, we exit on the 31st January and both revoke and a referendum dies

    Anything else and it is remain

    Of course if Boris wins then re-join becomes a respectable policy position from 1st February

    Does anyone imagine we could rejoin on anything like the terms we enjoy now?
    Possibly but not certain
    No way
    no rebate, euro and schengan. That’s the deal you are throwing away Germany +++
  • nico67 said:

    It’s not acceptable for the treasury to use its resources to model Labours proposals . This was blocked by the Cabinet Secretary not Johnson .

    It was clearly a breach of impartiality to use civil servants before an election to effectively help the government . The fact that we’re even discussing this shows the depths that this rotten government has sunk to .

    But, how about the message and probability
This discussion has been closed.