It would be 4% on a sample size of 410 for a perfectly representative sample with just two candidates, at 90% confidence. For this poll, more than 4%, depending on how many refused/undecided.
Why on earth are you campaigning for *this* Labour Party led by Corbyn?
I think it’s utterly shameful what you’re doing.
Because I think this country is in dire need of policies which will overtly and strongly favour the millions of people who currently have little in the way of wealth or opportunity at the expense of those who have a surfeit of both.
The question in all these polls seems to ask just how far can labour drop and could we see a UK wide disaster for them with the conservatives gaining a workable majoroty but the lib dems really adding to their haul
It would be 4% on a sample size of 410 for a perfectly representative sample with just two candidates, at 90% confidence. For this poll, more than 4%, depending on how many refused/undecided.
For a perfectly random sample /not/ a representative one.
Why on earth are you campaigning for *this* Labour Party led by Corbyn?
I think it’s utterly shameful what you’re doing.
Because I think this country is in dire need of policies which will overtly and strongly favour the millions of people who currently have little in the way of wealth or opportunity at the expense of those who have a surfeit of both.
Well said!
Casino Royale's comment is quite disgraceful. Whatever your views on Corbyn, this country needs the Labour Party to redress the selfish and narcissistic direction the tories are taking it.
'Deluded' is the word which immediately springs to mind.
That's exactly the same poll > national %ages > constituency projection > constituency %ages > LD bar chart nonsense for which one pollster wrote them a formal complaint today.
Why on earth are you campaigning for *this* Labour Party led by Corbyn?
I think it’s utterly shameful what you’re doing.
Because I think this country is in dire need of policies which will overtly and strongly favour the millions of people who currently have little in the way of wealth or opportunity at the expense of those who have a surfeit of both.
Well said!
Casino Royale's comment is quite disgraceful. Whatever your views on Corbyn, this country needs the Labour Party to redress the selfish and narcissistic direction the tories are taking it.
I think the country needs a credible left of centre alternative. I don't think it needs the Labour party though.
"Recent poll analysis"... by whom and how analysed? it sounds like tosh.
And it’s utter tosh of the toshest tripe. There’s been no polling in E&W and their candidate, Monica Harding, had to issue an humiliating apology (gleefully reported by Guido and others) for misrepresenting a Survation national survey and applying some form of flavible to it. She then whimpered about it being an innocent rookie error.....only to find that the candidate in Putney had done exactly the same. No one in this Board will be in the least bit surprised.
I haven’t yet been out haranguing the good denizens of the constituency but reports from those who have are pretty sanguine. There’s little doubt that Raab’s majority will fall - inevitable given the intense LD campaign - but at this stage I’d hazard a hold of between 10-15 k.
The problem with that approach is it is two years out of date. Labour should have insisted on a referendum on May's deal 18 months ago. That was the time when it should have been called. But actually they refused to get off the fence and the Tories managed to lose their majority and build the rhetoric that the way to break the Brexit impasse is to have a general election.
Having agreed to that approach I personally see no need to have Ref2 to stop Brexit. Parties stand on a manifesto to form a government and the winner implements that manifesto. So if a party was to stand on a manifesto to revoke and win the election (which was called to break the Brexit impasse) then they can just revoke and we can all move on.
Personally while I am not opposed to Labour's position on a question of principle it is, in my view, two years too late.
Take your point but I do not think Labour could have forced Ref2 through the parliament just deceased. My view, with the perfect wisdom of hindsight, is they should have let May's Deal pass. That IMO would not have been the best thing for stopping Brexit (obvs) but it would have set up better GE prospects for Labour than we have right now.
Labour aren't doing so badly. There's been an idiotically arrogant statement by JRM about the Grenfell victims, applauded by Andrew Bridgen just so that voters can know that such obnoxiousness isn't restricted to those with posh accents; and a lot of the news has been about right-wing parties opposed to Labour (Tories and the Brexit Party) squabbling and taking shots at each other, with some saying they should team up and others saying the Tories should refuse any BXP overture, and probably most voters not having much certainty about what on earth will happen between those two parties before polling day, except that they'll probably continue to be sniping at each other. All of this is good for Labour, who are in a very slightly better position in the polls than they were when the election was called. Whether they win depends on what issues dominate. If they make it about class they're in with a chance. Most Tories will absolutely hate that. I doubt references to Stalin will play any better than references to the IRA did two years ago. Ditto Hamas. (Kulaks weren't at all similar to billionaires, but I'm a pedant.) I wonder how many voters under 50 could recognise a picture of Stalin or come up with five facts about him.
It would be 4% on a sample size of 410 for a perfectly representative sample with just two candidates, at 90% confidence. For this poll, more than 4%, depending on how many refused/undecided.
For a perfectly random sample /not/ a representative one.
Point one. It has to be a perfectly random samp!e from a representative sample frame. Point two. Following recent polling failures and following the US example, the BPC recommended that pollsters affiliated to the BPC should abandon margins of error derived from theory, and instead use historical ones. The wording of the caveats at the bottom of the polls has been changed to reflect this. If the pollster is BPC affiliated then get the PDF and look for the wording where it tells you what the margin of error is believed to be for that poll.
Well it's a more reasonable offer to the Tories than 'dump the deal you based your reputation on', although still a tough sell for the Tories.
Give him time. He is under a lot of pressure both within and without TBP to strike a deal
Is he? Without, certainly, but how much within? There's been some disquiet from a few candidates but with the Tories looking reasonable for a majority anyway how much pressure to pullout is there? Unless Labour close the gap fast it might be too late to pull back.
McDonnell reported to have demanded Treasury don't publish analysis of Labour's economic proposals. Am told Treasury expected foreign exchange controls to prevent a run on the pound. No wonder John McDonnell wants to keep that quiet.
Why ask about a general election tomorrow and not on 12th December? Fishy.....
Calm down dear, this is standard practice amongst all pollsters.
Is it? When the date of the election is known?
Yes. They work on existing practice then about a month before the election they make some adjustments and the wording may change. This is thought to be the reason why the YouGov Poll (not their MRP poll) did not do well in 2017.
In short: not only is this standard operating procedure, they did this in 2017 and 2015 as well
McDonnell reported to have demanded Treasury don't publish analysis of Labour's economic proposals. Am told Treasury expected foreign exchange controls to prevent a run on the pound. No wonder John McDonnell wants to keep that quiet.
The newspaper (FT.) headlines said the opposite this morning that the civil service had been blocked by Johnson running the Labour Party proposals through treasury models.
Well it's a more reasonable offer to the Tories than 'dump the deal you based your reputation on', although still a tough sell for the Tories.
Give him time. He is under a lot of pressure both within and without TBP to strike a deal
Is he? Without, certainly, but how much within? There's been some disquiet from a few candidates but with the Tories looking reasonable for a majority anyway how much pressure to pullout is there? Unless Labour close the gap fast it might be too late to pull back.
Day by day he moves slightly and now he is talking of accepting the WDA
Not much further for an agreement on the PDA and transistion
McDonnell reported to have demanded Treasury don't publish analysis of Labour's economic proposals. Am told Treasury expected foreign exchange controls to prevent a run on the pound. No wonder John McDonnell wants to keep that quiet.
Yes. Because a run on the pound is such a rare occurrence. That never happens. Oh dear me no.
McDonnell reported to have demanded Treasury don't publish analysis of Labour's economic proposals. Am told Treasury expected foreign exchange controls to prevent a run on the pound. No wonder John McDonnell wants to keep that quiet.
The newspaper (FT.) headlines said the opposite this morning that the civil service had been blocked by Johnson running the Labour Party proposals through treasury models.
I am sure you agree that that sums up a GE campaign
McDonnell reported to have demanded Treasury don't publish analysis of Labour's economic proposals. Am told Treasury expected foreign exchange controls to prevent a run on the pound. No wonder John McDonnell wants to keep that quiet.
The newspaper (FT.) headlines said the opposite this morning that the civil service had been blocked by Johnson running the Labour Party proposals through treasury models.
Which is the more reliable source, Guido or the FT? Hmm.
McDonnell reported to have demanded Treasury don't publish analysis of Labour's economic proposals. Am told Treasury expected foreign exchange controls to prevent a run on the pound. No wonder John McDonnell wants to keep that quiet.
The newspaper (FT.) headlines said the opposite this morning that the civil service had been blocked by Johnson running the Labour Party proposals through treasury models.
Fair play to Johnson for that, although why the civil service is gung-ho about costing Labour's proposal sounds a bit suspicious.
Regarding Farage's proposed pact, can someone with more mathematical nous than me tell me how many seats the Brexit Party would be more likely to win than the Conservatives?
McDonnell reported to have demanded Treasury don't publish analysis of Labour's economic proposals. Am told Treasury expected foreign exchange controls to prevent a run on the pound. No wonder John McDonnell wants to keep that quiet.
The newspaper (FT.) headlines said the opposite this morning that the civil service had been blocked by Johnson running the Labour Party proposals through treasury models.
Fair play to Johnson for that, although why the civil service is gung-ho about costing Labour's proposal sounds a bit suspicious.
The Civil Service is supposed to be prepared for any government on Friday 13th.
McDonnell reported to have demanded Treasury don't publish analysis of Labour's economic proposals. Am told Treasury expected foreign exchange controls to prevent a run on the pound. No wonder John McDonnell wants to keep that quiet.
The newspaper (FT.) headlines said the opposite this morning that the civil service had been blocked by Johnson running the Labour Party proposals through treasury models.
Fair play to Johnson for that, although why the civil service is gung-ho about costing Labour's proposal sounds a bit suspicious.
Wasn't this a land grab by OBR, who wanted to cost out the prospecti of parties? I think Johnson blocked it because it's a double-edged sword.
Trump jr has outed the whistleblower on twitter. Tee hee.
Inciting campaigns of harassment and abuse to an unhinged mob. How funny!
He's CIA, I think he will be fine
And he just blew the whistle on illegal action by his superiors.
That he wasn't witness to and wasn't illegal. Hes an Obama holdover, Brennan plant and registered Democrat and his identity has been well known online for over two weeks. His name is also apparantly very likely to feature in the FISA abuse report. Trumps side arent the only ones that stink to high heaven
Boris majority, we exit on the 31st January and both revoke and a referendum dies
Anything else and it is remain
Of course if Boris wins then re-join becomes a respectable policy position from 1st February
Johnson wins, makes stupid promise to not extend transition, UK crashes out no deal on 31/12.
Not no Deal, the Deal is the Withdrawal Agreement, just no further extension of the transition period during FTA negotiations with the EU
First they are ongoing relationship discussions which may end up as a FTA. If there is no agreement on that relationship by the end of June and no application is made for an extension then if no agreement its no deal on 31/12. If you don’t know what is in the WA that’s your problem. There is no ongoing relationship in the WA just none binding declarations. Why do you think the ERG and eventually Farage will fall in behind Johnson. No deal is very much on the cards
Shame. And after SF made such a kind offer as well.
SF and SDLP got just 2% there last time combined.
In 2005 Lady Hermon got 50% as the UUP candidate and the DUP got 35% so UUP could regain an MP
Sure, but her majority was 3.1% last time, if she had stood and SF didn't it could have been crucial, so a nice gesture (unless it spurred people away from her!).
It's a shame when NI only gets 2 parties, since with 1 being SF only 1 gets represented, so here's hoping SDLP and UUP do ok.
I have been thinking. I am wondering if the best outcome of this election would be the Tories to win a majority of around 60 BUT at the same time all the Cabinet plus Francois and Duncan Smith lose their seats.
That would kill off the nutters in the Labour Party, probably for good, get rid of this shambolic government and mean everyone who bet on a Labour gain in Uxbridge gets a payout.
What’s not to like?
Of course, it’s about as likely as an SNP government (for example, no way will Williamson lose his seat) but it would be immensely satisfying.
I have been thinking. I am wondering if the best outcome of this election would be the Tories to win a majority of around 60 BUT at the same time all the Cabinet plus Francois and Duncan Smith lose their seats.
That would kill off the nutters in the Labour Party, probably for good, get rid of this shambolic government and mean everyone who bet on a Labour gain in Uxbridge gets a payout.
What’s not to like?
Of course, it’s about as likely as an SNP government (for example, no way will Williamson lose his seat) but it would be immensely satisfying.
National popular vote not swing state polls (even Hillary won the popular vote against Trump) and Emerson has it much closer even there
With all due respect, you can lose the Presidential election with a 3% national vote lead. It might even be possible with a 4% or 5% one. It won't happen with a 10% one. At that point, the Dems are getting 20% more votes than the Republicans, and they ain't all piling up up in California.
I'd also point out that the Siena College (no 538 rating) polls are out of line with the polls produced the previous day by Emerson College (an A- pollster). In Michigan (which Trump won narrowly), Emerson has Biden +12 and Sanders +14, against +2 and +1 for Siena.
Siena, in fact, seems to get very similar results to Rasmussen. Which might, of course, be correct. But Rasmussen was predicting a Republican win in the midterms last year (the only pollster to do so) against an actual result of Dems +8.
It’s not acceptable for the treasury to use its resources to model Labours proposals . This was blocked by the Cabinet Secretary not Johnson .
It was clearly a breach of impartiality to use civil servants before an election to effectively help the government . The fact that we’re even discussing this shows the depths that this rotten government has sunk to .
McDonnell reported to have demanded Treasury don't publish analysis of Labour's economic proposals. Am told Treasury expected foreign exchange controls to prevent a run on the pound. No wonder John McDonnell wants to keep that quiet.
The newspaper (FT.) headlines said the opposite this morning that the civil service had been blocked by Johnson running the Labour Party proposals through treasury models.
Fair play to Johnson for that, although why the civil service is gung-ho about costing Labour's proposal sounds a bit suspicious.
I actually think it is because if you run labour and Tory policies side by side it’s difficult to work out which are worse.
Boris majority, we exit on the 31st January and both revoke and a referendum dies
Anything else and it is remain
Of course if Boris wins then re-join becomes a respectable policy position from 1st February
Johnson wins, makes stupid promise to not extend transition, UK crashes out no deal on 31/12.
Not no Deal, the Deal is the Withdrawal Agreement, just no further extension of the transition period during FTA negotiations with the EU
First they are ongoing relationship discussions which may end up as a FTA. If there is no agreement on that relationship by the end of June and no application is made for an extension then if no agreement its no deal on 31/12. If you don’t know what is in the WA that’s your problem. There is no ongoing relationship in the WA just none binding declarations. Why do you think the ERG and eventually Farage will fall in behind Johnson. No deal is very much on the cards
No, it is not No Deal. No Deal means no Withdrawal Agreement agreed and passed and the EU refuses to start FTA talks with the UK as a result. If you don't understand what No Deal is defined as that is your problem.
Even Canada agreed a FTA with the EU after 7 years so at most it is a delayed FTA and no extended transition period not No Deal
It’s not acceptable for the treasury to use its resources to model Labours proposals . This was blocked by the Cabinet Secretary not Johnson .
It was clearly a breach of impartiality to use civil servants before an election to effectively help the government . The fact that we’re even discussing this shows the depths that this rotten government has sunk to .
Yet the reports say otherwise, unless you have a source to back up your claim?
It’s not acceptable for the treasury to use its resources to model Labours proposals . This was blocked by the Cabinet Secretary not Johnson .
It was clearly a breach of impartiality to use civil servants before an election to effectively help the government . The fact that we’re even discussing this shows the depths that this rotten government has sunk to .
Yet the reports say otherwise, unless you have a source to back up your claim?
Nico67is right it was the cabinet secretary that blocked it.
McDonnell reported to have demanded Treasury don't publish analysis of Labour's economic proposals. Am told Treasury expected foreign exchange controls to prevent a run on the pound. No wonder John McDonnell wants to keep that quiet.
The newspaper (FT.) headlines said the opposite this morning that the civil service had been blocked by Johnson running the Labour Party proposals through treasury models.
Fair play to Johnson for that, although why the civil service is gung-ho about costing Labour's proposal sounds a bit suspicious.
I actually think it is because if you run labour and Tory policies side by side it’s difficult to work out which are worse.
I would have said the Tories are worse, actually. It depends a bit on what you mean by ‘worse’, though. If providing a fantasy of uncosted proposals based entirely on borrowing is worse than presenting a fantasy of uncosted proposals based on borrowing and tax rises that will actually bring in no extra money, then I’m giving it to the Tories.
I wonder what treats we have in store for the rest of the day. Film of Sajid Javid urinating on a homeless man? Liz Truss launching a verbal tirade against David Attenborough? Priti Patel musing on the good side of Fred West?
The imagination of the Conservative master strategists to date has been flawless.
Is urinating on homeless people something you think about a lot?
IIRC, Mr Meeks is not a Conservative.
In 30 years I’ve never heard a Tory suggest anything remotely as unpleasant as that.
It suggests that @AlastairMeeks views fellow citizens with contempt
What a nasty man he has turned into
Having them “put down” is less unpleasant, or did you miss that comment?
It’s less specific, and not someone i know, but not particularly nice
Boris majority, we exit on the 31st January and both revoke and a referendum dies
Anything else and it is remain
Of course if Boris wins then re-join becomes a respectable policy position from 1st February
Johnson wins, makes stupid promise to not extend transition, UK crashes out no deal on 31/12.
Not no Deal, the Deal is the Withdrawal Agreement, just no further extension of the transition period during FTA negotiations with the EU
First they are ongoing relationship discussions which may end up as a FTA. If there is no agreement on that relationship by the end of June and no application is made for an extension then if no agreement its no deal on 31/12. If you don’t know what is in the WA that’s your problem. There is no ongoing relationship in the WA just none binding declarations. Why do you think the ERG and eventually Farage will fall in behind Johnson. No deal is very much on the cards
No, it is not No Deal. No Deal means no Withdrawal Agreement agreed and passed and the EU refuses to start FTA talks with the UK as a result. If you don't understand what No Deal is defined as that is your problem.
Even Canada agreed a FTA with the EU after 7 years so at most it is a delayed FTA and no extended transition period not No Deal
If the transition isn’t extended it’s no deal there is no middle way.
It’s not acceptable for the treasury to use its resources to model Labours proposals . This was blocked by the Cabinet Secretary not Johnson .
It was clearly a breach of impartiality to use civil servants before an election to effectively help the government . The fact that we’re even discussing this shows the depths that this rotten government has sunk to .
So when the Treasury used its resources to predict a year long recession immediately after a Leave vote was that acceptable ?
It’s not acceptable for the treasury to use its resources to model Labours proposals . This was blocked by the Cabinet Secretary not Johnson .
It was clearly a breach of impartiality to use civil servants before an election to effectively help the government . The fact that we’re even discussing this shows the depths that this rotten government has sunk to .
Yet the reports say otherwise, unless you have a source to back up your claim?
Nico67is right it was the cabinet secretary that blocked it.
Like I said, it'd be nice to have a source. The FT was claiming it was blocked by Johnson.
Why on earth are you campaigning for *this* Labour Party led by Corbyn?
I think it’s utterly shameful what you’re doing.
Because I think this country is in dire need of policies which will overtly and strongly favour the millions of people who currently have little in the way of wealth or opportunity at the expense of those who have a surfeit of both.
So why are you supporting a party that will make things immeasurably worse for them then?
If that's Guido and he's using the word 'reported' I bet it's straight out of the Dominic Cummings deliberate lies pond
He's not very on message then, he has reported on Tory selection issues, and in his round ups for the last couple of days stated the cut through messages of the day are the ones not great for the Tories.
It’s not acceptable for the treasury to use its resources to model Labours proposals . This was blocked by the Cabinet Secretary not Johnson .
It was clearly a breach of impartiality to use civil servants before an election to effectively help the government . The fact that we’re even discussing this shows the depths that this rotten government has sunk to .
Comments
Experts, huh! What do they know?
either another Referendum or just put the whole thing to a watery grave, a la Bin Laden.
Casino Royale's comment is quite disgraceful. Whatever your views on Corbyn, this country needs the Labour Party to redress the selfish and narcissistic direction the tories are taking it.
(I really thought you were joking).
If he did not stand in South Cambridgeshire 7% of the vote is free
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1192145141282279424
Point two. Following recent polling failures and following the US example, the BPC recommended that pollsters affiliated to the BPC should abandon margins of error derived from theory, and instead use historical ones. The wording of the caveats at the bottom of the polls has been changed to reflect this. If the pollster is BPC affiliated then get the PDF and look for the wording where it tells you what the margin of error is believed to be for that poll.
https://mobile.twitter.com/jhsnS6/status/1192129884421861376
Boris majority, we exit on the 31st January and both revoke and a referendum dies
Anything else and it is remain
Of course if Boris wins then re-join becomes a respectable policy position from 1st February
McDonnell reported to have demanded Treasury don't publish analysis of Labour's economic proposals. Am told Treasury expected foreign exchange controls to prevent a run on the pound. No wonder John McDonnell wants to keep that quiet.
Poll (not their MRP poll) did not do well in 2017.
In short: not only is this standard operating procedure, they did this in 2017 and 2015 as well
Not much further for an agreement on the PDA and transistion
(Grinds teeth in frustration)
Johnson wins, makes stupid promise to not extend transition, UK crashes out no deal on 31/12.
In 2005 Lady Hermon got 50% as the UUP candidate in North Down and the DUP got 35% so UUP could regain an MP
His name is also apparantly very likely to feature in the FISA abuse report.
Trumps side arent the only ones that stink to high heaven
It's a shame when NI only gets 2 parties, since with 1 being SF only 1 gets represented, so here's hoping SDLP and UUP do ok.
That would kill off the nutters in the Labour Party, probably for good, get rid of this shambolic government and mean everyone who bet on a Labour gain in Uxbridge gets a payout.
What’s not to like?
Of course, it’s about as likely as an SNP government (for example, no way will Williamson lose his seat) but it would be immensely satisfying.
Of course, I did not mean this year. The extension does have to be agreed by 30/6 though
I'd also point out that the Siena College (no 538 rating) polls are out of line with the polls produced the previous day by Emerson College (an A- pollster). In Michigan (which Trump won narrowly), Emerson has Biden +12 and Sanders +14, against +2 and +1 for Siena.
Siena, in fact, seems to get very similar results to Rasmussen. Which might, of course, be correct. But Rasmussen was predicting a Republican win in the midterms last year (the only pollster to do so) against an actual result of Dems +8.
It was clearly a breach of impartiality to use civil servants before an election to effectively help the government . The fact that we’re even discussing this shows the depths that this rotten government has sunk to .
Even Canada agreed a FTA with the EU after 7 years so at most it is a delayed FTA and no extended transition period not No Deal
And why didn't the Cabinet Secretary block that ?
IMO neither should have been allowed.
Use your brain man.
no rebate, euro and schengan. That’s the deal you are throwing away Germany +++