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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first morning of the official campaign period in three Tweets
Not the finest hour for these two senior Tories. I'm sure their opponents on December 12th will have noticed. https://t.co/m56aDCAJPk
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https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1192059250673147905
Big_G, would you agree with that?
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1192064883602395136
From the end of October
https://twitter.com/LordJohnMann/status/1188494774141108224
Top work.
Also the overall direction of travel in Wales is positive
Lol
Tories dealing with their messes quickly it seems.
No?
So just like a manifesto then......
This isn’t to minimise the polling for Labour which is, well, minimal, but thinking of the campaign specifically it looks kind of ok as far as I can see.
The best I can say is that i'd rather it happen at the start and give people the wake up call to sort themselves out for the rest of the campaign than it happen with a week to go.
Hopefully voters aren't fully focused yet.
Useful line to take
If "Tory gaffes" drowns out Labour's enormo-bribes in the media it could even prove to be a net positive for the blue team!
That said, all Tory campaigns seem to get blasted as shite. It is partly a media looking to make a Tory campaign shite..... If Channel 4 say we're having a so-so camapaign, it will mean Boris has a majority of 250!
Ross England sounds like a typically arrogant & unpleasant & entitled Tory Boy. I hope this is the end of his political career.
Alun Cairns is probably a bit unlucky that this has blown up now (I think because the appeal against the original rape case was dismissed last week, and so details are only now becoming public of things that happened many months ago). But, it does look as though Cairns did breach the ministerial code to me. Cairns said he knew nothing, the Judge said he send a letter. Either Cairns is lying or the Judge is lying.
But, if the Tories want a rapid rebuttal against Labour calls for full disclosure of what happened -- they could point to the extraordinary secrecy regarding the death of Carl Sergeant. This is a huge scandal, no-one knows what happened, it led to a death of an AM and resignation of a First Minister, no report has ever been made public by Welsh Labour.
It was only a few weeks ago that Welsh Labour voted not to release it.
I can only see us going back to the ballot box in the event of a hung parliament.
The imagination of the Conservative master strategists to date has been flawless.
Wales is basically run like Goodfellas. We have the made men of Welsh Labour, untouchable.
Carl Sergeant gets whacked, just like Tommy and Morrie.
The mobsters attend the funeral, tears in their eyes.
If either of those things are not true then the very high leads from many pollsters are easily cut into and suddenly the narrative is 2017 all over again.
Its possible.
Williamson and Hepburn are currently suspended from Labour.
Godsiff lost the trigger ballot for reselection.
There are 3 other MPs (Osamor, Sharma and Lewell-Buck) who lost the trigger ballot but didn't have time to undergo the open selection. They should learn their fate today too.
https://twitter.com/iainjwatson/status/1192071588163850246
An indiscreet comment here, a poor comparison there, a few words that can be twisted around ... and he could end up splashed all over the news.
They were never going to be elected by the party membership.
Personally I would rather Boris doesn't try and run a minority government and instead vote down any alternative suggested.
We can go back to the polls again where I would expect voters to coalesce around a single alternative.
And do you know, there was one occasion in the recent past when Labour could have failed to form a Government !!
On 3 May 2007, Labour won 26 of 60 seats. There was an agreement between teh leaders of the three opposition parties, Plaid Cymru, Tories and LibDems to form a Rainbow Alliance Government.
It didn't happen because the LibDems chickened out at a special conference.
The LibDems, they never miss an opportunity to let Wales down ...
It suggests that @AlastairMeeks views fellow citizens with contempt
What a nasty man he has turned into
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-50184281
There will be a few boots going up ars*s in the Tory campaign team which will hopefully sharpen them up.
Couple of things on Cairns:
1. Will Boris appoint a new SoS? The ministerial/civil service codes are clear that existing ministers continue in post. But other MPs have ceased to be, so appointing one may look a bit weird. I guess asking a junior to step up and leave a consequent vacancy is a possible outcome?
2. I see Corbyn's calling for him to stand down as a candidate. If I was him, I'd keep shtum till nominations close, then exploit his not-very-firm looking 2k majority!
Brexit - There is a clear choice between the parties that wasn't there in 2017.
Spending/Economy - There is much less differential than 2017 with all parties promising a spending spree to a degree. In my experience, faced with the prospect of all parties promising to spunk our the financial prosperity of our children and grandchildren, the electorate would probably decide that the tories will go about that in the least irresponsible manner.
Possible that Labour might benefit from a few LD and GREEN votes peeling off to them with this already indicated in the polls. Can't see TBP hurting anyone disproportionately, given the Brexit fundamentals.
What we are seeing both in the Tories and indeed Labour is the clearing of at least the doormat of the Augean Stables (which, in fairness, had been cleaned only 30 years earlier) that is the Parliament of 2017. Hopefully there is a lot more of that to come.
Philippa Perry, psychotherapist"
https://unherd.com/2019/11/how-to-humanise-westminster/
Boris won't be long term, but he might get us over a couple of important hurdles that previously looked insurmountable