That is what every reluctant Tory voter needs to be aware of, that and the make up of the new Tory intake. There will be no going back to one nation conservatism. The same is true of labour.
People need to calm down a bit. Francois et al are a very public element of the Tories. They have always been there, however, and it is true that Boris has enabled them to shine, if that's the right word, for the moment.
But there is a vast swathe of Cons MPs, even allowing for the hugely regretted number stepping down, who are decent, centre right types who would no sooner think of endorsing Francois as they would of jumping off a cliff, especially a Brexit one. The Party hasn't completely transformed in a matter of days.
The rump Conservatives remain sensible and ones deserving of sensible peoples' votes. It is my belief that they won't allow the loons to take control of the keys any time soon.
Do you put Johnson and Cummings in the sensible category?
No. I put Johnson in the out for himself category and I put Cummings in the focused to the exclusion of all else category. That thing that he has been focused on being Brexit.
And we shall see whether, by hook or by crook, and in some format or another, we will get Brexit. My thinking is that we will.
I have long said on here that no deal, while hugely damaging for the country in many ways, is nevertheless a valid way of honouring the referendum result. Cummings gets this. I don't happen to think, however, that any PM will allow it, but I have no truck with those who say "there was no mandate for no deal". The famous ballot paper and its infamous brevity gave a mandate for any Brexit whatsoever, from full EEA/EFTA to no deal. Cummings has borne that in mind in his behaviour.
LibDems clearly making a tremendous effort here in Esher and Walton: Jo Swinson visiting local school today. Also masses of literature - will do wonders for Elmbridge’s recycling rate - all delivered through Royal Mail.
LibDems clearly making a tremendous effort here in Esher and Walton: Jo Swinson visiting local school today. Also masses of literature - will do wonders for Elmbridge’s recycling rate - all delivered through Royal Mail.
LibDems clearly making a tremendous effort here in Esher and Walton: Jo Swinson visiting local school today. Also masses of literature - will do wonders for Elmbridge’s recycling rate - all delivered through Royal Mail.
Are you going to vote for Raab?
Yes, of course....and deliver and canvass too (now a deal has been done, albeit like Dr Nabavi, I think May’s was better). Besides, I could never countenance voting for the LDs.
Living in a marginal Lab-Con constituency, I am astonished that with just 5 weeks to go there is next to nothing so far to suggest that a general election is going on here. Just a small A5 flyer from Labour with virtually no content and a couple of pretty routine mentions for the MP and challenger in the local paper. That's it. A complete contrast from the years worth of continuous bumpf that we received in 2015 (especially from the Tories) and so far nothing even to match the more concentrated 2017 campaign.
It wasn't as though an Autumn GE wasn't highly likely and yet it is obvious that both the Conservatives and Labour have failed to take action nationally to prepare their ground game in key constituencies at a national level, relying on local parties to instigate early campaigning (or not, at least here). I excuse the LDs since there is absolutely no reason for them to mount more than a paper campaign here.
Nothing at all here yet. I'ver had a letter from Priti Patel in response to a query I sent ages ago wittering about the 'Surrender Act', 'dither and delay over our exit from the EU', 'will of the people' 'get Brexit done' and such-like, but otherwise I've seen nothing directly constituency related.
As far as the neighbouring constituency of Braintree is concerned someone's suggested on the local Facebook page that people should vote wisely, not cleverly.
The Grenfell firefighters did their bloody best. Sure, question their commanders and their orders but do not question their commitment.
If there's one thing that utterly utterly pisses me off it's the sort of comment @nunu2 made about the rank and file officers somehow being culpable for what unfolded. And there is far too much of that around Grenfell.
Oh God, please don’t let any journalists ask a Tory MP whether those at the scene should have disobeyed the orders of those in command.
It stops them asking about the Mayor's cuts to the fire service.
The one question I have yet to hear the media ask about Grenfell is whether the London Fire Service ever asked for funding for a higher platform (before Grenfell), what was the answer and who gave that answer. I find it hard to believe they did not ask at some point given that their highest aerial platform at the time of Grenfell was only 32m, Surrey had a 45m platform (despite far fewer and lower buildings) which arrived hours into the fire and (in 2018) the London Fire Service was supposed to be buying higher platforms (all too late). Platforms up to 102m are used elsewhere in the world and although they may not have helped (access is an issue as well as height) it seems very odd that the service with the highest buildings in the UK had no decent aerial platforms.
This may be slightly counter intuitive but I wonder if Kay Burley might get in some hot water over this mornings antics..... aggressively no chairing someone not booked on your show in an election campaign? Shes got her gotcha moment but is it a self gotcha?
I think she'll get away with it as it was *just* outside the start of the formal campaign and purdah rules (which I'm sure they were well aware of)
Bet they won't dare try it again in the next five weeks.
This may be slightly counter intuitive but I wonder if Kay Burley might get in some hot water over this mornings antics..... aggressively no chairing someone not booked on your show in an election campaign? Shes got her gotcha moment but is it a self gotcha?
I think she'll get away with it as it was *just* outside the start of the formal campaign and purdah rules (which I'm sure they were well aware of)
Bet they won't dare try it again.
And they forget getting any interviews for a lengthy punishment period too.
"As soon as Brexit is over..." is the bit people are deluding themselves about.
Brexit will never be over.
Whilst I think you're right i'm not sure the Tories will be too upset if it turns out to be the case.
There will always be EU grist to add to every GE mill which will be useful for firing up potential Tory voters.
Labour on the other hand will have a horrendous internal war about how to position themselves in the future. Referendum on rejoining? Straight rejoin without a referendum? Stay out of the EU?
This election isn't just about Brexit, it is about the next 2 or 3 elections.
I doubt whether any of these campaign 'disasters' will cut through to voting intention TBH. Probably only the Rees-Mogg gaffe will be noticed by ordinary people, and they are either ardent Leavers who will forgive him anything because he's an ardent Leaver, or they are not in which case they already think he's a dork and won't be surprised to see their opinion confirmed.
None of this will affect the campaign, which only really starts today.
Nevertheless the Tories need to be much more disciplined for the next 5 weeks.
The so called Starmer gaffe has lead to 820,000 views of the Tory video. I'm sure they are extremely happy with those numbers and the discussion of Labour's messy policy. That they edited the footage to dramatise their point is neither here or there.
It’s very much here and there.
They edited the footage so the ensuing controversy would ensure it got tens of thousands of more shares.
LibDems clearly making a tremendous effort here in Esher and Walton: Jo Swinson visiting local school today. Also masses of literature - will do wonders for Elmbridge’s recycling rate - all delivered through Royal Mail.
Are you going to vote for Raab?
Yes, of course....and deliver and canvass too (now a deal has been done, albeit like Dr Nabavi, I think May’s was better). Besides, I could never countenance voting for the LDs.
No, but it nearly all seems quite reasonable. Their current prediction Con 346 Lab 208 SNP 44 LD 29 is similar to my Con 335 Lab 221 SNP 44 LD 27.
It's both brave and useful to publish a table like this. As we saw in 2017, there is the possibility of everything being out of whack by several percent.
I doubt whether any of these campaign 'disasters' will cut through to voting intention TBH. Probably only the Rees-Mogg gaffe will be noticed by ordinary people, and they are either ardent Leavers who will forgive him anything because he's an ardent Leaver, or they are not in which case they already think he's a dork and won't be surprised to see their opinion confirmed.
None of this will affect the campaign, which only really starts today.
Nevertheless the Tories need to be much more disciplined for the next 5 weeks.
The so called Starmer gaffe has lead to 820,000 views of the Tory video. I'm sure they are extremely happy with those numbers and the discussion of Labour's messy policy. That they edited the footage to dramatise their point is neither here or there.
It’s very much here and there.
They edited the footage so the ensuing controversy would ensure it got tens of thousands of more shares.
It worked.
What is the strategic point of it though? They are just emphasising that Labour is the only party trying to span the divide on Brexit.
I doubt whether any of these campaign 'disasters' will cut through to voting intention TBH. Probably only the Rees-Mogg gaffe will be noticed by ordinary people, and they are either ardent Leavers who will forgive him anything because he's an ardent Leaver, or they are not in which case they already think he's a dork and won't be surprised to see their opinion confirmed.
None of this will affect the campaign, which only really starts today.
Nevertheless the Tories need to be much more disciplined for the next 5 weeks.
The so called Starmer gaffe has lead to 820,000 views of the Tory video. I'm sure they are extremely happy with those numbers and the discussion of Labour's messy policy. That they edited the footage to dramatise their point is neither here or there.
It’s very much here and there.
They edited the footage so the ensuing controversy would ensure it got tens of thousands of more shares.
It worked.
What is the strategic point of it though? They are just emphasising that Labour is the only party trying to span the divide on Brexit.
People want simplicity and clarity; they have Christmas presents to buy. They do not want a convoluted internal dialogue about whither Brexit.
Labour's Brexit policy, as we have all agreed on here, is ludicrous.
I doubt whether any of these campaign 'disasters' will cut through to voting intention TBH. Probably only the Rees-Mogg gaffe will be noticed by ordinary people, and they are either ardent Leavers who will forgive him anything because he's an ardent Leaver, or they are not in which case they already think he's a dork and won't be surprised to see their opinion confirmed.
None of this will affect the campaign, which only really starts today.
Nevertheless the Tories need to be much more disciplined for the next 5 weeks.
The so called Starmer gaffe has lead to 820,000 views of the Tory video. I'm sure they are extremely happy with those numbers and the discussion of Labour's messy policy. That they edited the footage to dramatise their point is neither here or there.
It’s very much here and there.
They edited the footage so the ensuing controversy would ensure it got tens of thousands of more shares.
It worked.
What is the strategic point of it though? They are just emphasising that Labour is the only party trying to span the divide on Brexit.
People want simplicity and clarity; they have Christmas presents to buy. They do not want a convoluted internal dialogue about whither Brexit.
Labour's Brexit policy, as we have all agreed on here, is ludicrous.
The clip just illustrates that.
Exactly - whether you're for Leave or Remain, almost no one wants more delay and uncertainty, and months and months of delay, stress, and uncertainty is exactly what Labour is promising...
No, but it nearly all seems quite reasonable. Their current prediction Con 346 Lab 208 SNP 44 LD 29 is similar to my Con 335 Lab 221 SNP 44 LD 27.
It's both brave and useful to publish a table like this. As we saw in 2017, there is the possibility of everything being out of whack by several percent.
Just been through it, concentrating on seats I know. Looks completely plausible, although sadly it predicts IDS will hold in Chingford.
What is the strategic point of it though? They are just emphasising that Labour is the only party trying to soak the divide on Brexit.
Come on, seriously?
I understand Labour need to sell their fudge on the doorsteps but there is literally not a single poster on here who doesn't see it for what is.
The Tories have spent the last three years trying to box Labour into being the stop Brexit party. If their attack line is now that Labour don’t know if they want to stop Brexit or not, it’s a win for Labour.
What is the strategic point of it though? They are just emphasising that Labour is the only party trying to soak the divide on Brexit.
Come on, seriously?
I understand Labour need to sell their fudge on the doorsteps but there is literally not a single poster on here who doesn't see it for what is.
The Tories have spent the last three years trying to box Labour into being the stop Brexit party. If their attack line is now that Labour don’t know if they want to stop Brexit or not, it’s a win for Labour.
It may well be. There may be people who want to "go on a journey" with Labour and Brexit. But as the man said, Labour have done a good job of convincing Leavers that they are for Remain and Remainers that they are for Leave.
If you believe that is an effective place to be then I would disagree. People have 0.94% of their time for this stuff (PB excepted) and want clear, simple options.
The Tories have spent the last three years trying to box Labour into being the stop Brexit party. If their attack line is now that Labour don’t know if they want to stop Brexit or not, it’s a win for Labour.
How big a pool of voters do you think there are who would vote for an ambiguous Brexit strategy?
I can't think of many people I have met recently who have said they have no idea what we should do about Brexit and if only there was a party who were equally confused that they could vote for.
People will be voting for Labour despite their Brexit policy not because of it.
That is what every reluctant Tory voter needs to be aware of, that and the make up of the new Tory intake. There will be no going back to one nation conservatism. The same is true of labour.
Disagree.
If politics were cricket then this election will see the T20 Brexit side out in the field looking to blast the opposition in a quick victory.
As soon as Brexit is over the line then the test match side will re-appear, with Captain Boris heading up a one-nation team, moving back to the centre of the pitch as the opposition disappear ever leftwards to the boundary ropes.
“I declare President Trump will overcome every strategy from hell, and every strategy of the enemy, every strategy, and he will fulfil his calling and his destiny.”...
If Boris returned as PM: Boris WA / PD passed and A50 exit on 31/1 After 31/1 will soon become apparent that FTA negotiation is as fraught as WA. Lots of fish stories (and equivalent) in UK press. Course of FTA will depend on size of majority.
Majority large enough: Something will be agreed and transition exit will be end 2020 I'm not too worried about formal no deal. The something is likely to be a moderately coherent bundle of mini-deals, akin to EU-US arrangements, but with some difficult areas sat out (e.g. fisheries) This may not be an FTA because, by WTO definition, an FTA is something that broadly covers most sectors (but it could just be a skeleton FTA) The need for a deal means it will be on sub optimal terms for GB
2021: GB will have encountered / be encountering cyclical recession The chilling effect of Brexit trade limitations will be kicking in - not the full No Deal, but there will be queues at Dover, less food choice etc., even with what has been agreed Severe double dip / further downward lurch will be on the horizon There will be urgency around any work to expand the deals, progress the FTA.
2023: GB growth may recover on capital inflow from the East into cities masking many issues, but GB will be even more prone to capital outwash as Global structural issues continue to make things wobble. But out with cities economy will stay anaemic on many fundamentals. Additional mini deals or an FTA will still be central on the political agenda, because small town GB will continue to hurt badly from Brexit. Also NI divergence will be hurting, and the need for a closer relationship to ease woes across the North Passage will be a strong pressure. The urgency will not be advantageous to GB.
A smaller Con majority to me leads to a similar dynamic to that just passed: ERG No Deal (the EU are riding over us on specifics) Vs parliamentary moves to try and force extension of Transition
The Tories have spent the last three years trying to box Labour into being the stop Brexit party. If their attack line is now that Labour don’t know if they want to stop Brexit or not, it’s a win for Labour.
How big a pool of voters do you think there are who would vote for an ambiguous Brexit strategy?
I can't think of many people I have met recently who have said they have no idea what we should do about Brexit and if only there was a party who were equally confused that they could vote for.
People will be voting for Labour despite their Brexit policy not because of it.
The Tory campaign is all about "getting Brexit done" so that we can "focus on the priorities of the British people", so they implicitly agree that Brexit isn't one of them.
No, but it nearly all seems quite reasonable. Their current prediction Con 346 Lab 208 SNP 44 LD 29 is similar to my Con 335 Lab 221 SNP 44 LD 27.
It's both brave and useful to publish a table like this. As we saw in 2017, there is the possibility of everything being out of whack by several percent.
I suspect they've not (understandably) been able to allow for special factors. For example, I see their predicted score of 0.0% for the LDs and "others" in Broxtowe. They are endorsing Anna Soubry, who should turn up in one column or the other - I don't think she has any chance of winning, but she won't get 0 votes.
No, but it nearly all seems quite reasonable. Their current prediction Con 346 Lab 208 SNP 44 LD 29 is similar to my Con 335 Lab 221 SNP 44 LD 27.
It's both brave and useful to publish a table like this. As we saw in 2017, there is the possibility of everything being out of whack by several percent.
Here is my table for England and Wales. I also show the MRP projections for each seat for reference and comparison.
deliberate shift of the Tory party from a conservative, unionist and pro business party into an English populist nationalist party that cares only about the latest polls.
One persons 'English populist nationalist party'...
...is another persons 'respecter of the referendum result against the establishment elite'.
We get to choose our definitions next month.
Yes lets pretend the party that has been in govt the last decade and most of the last century is not the establishment elite. Nor the Eton educated PM or his lackeys such as Baron Rees-Mogg the hedge fund managing son of the editor of the Times.
How easily people are persuaded of nonsense in pursuit of this Brexit religion. Black is white and white is black as long as the temples are led by believers.
Jacob Rees-Mogg is not a baron. His father was a life peer so there is no title for him to inherit. Even if there was, it would go to his older brother, Thomas.
A lacklustre start to the Tory campaign is naturally frustrating for us supporters, but I wonder whether (a) raising the real possibility that Corbyn could become PM, (b) setting expectations for the quality of the Tory campaign so low, might assist the Tories in the latter stages of the campaign when it really matters. No point being 25 points ahead now just to end up neck-and-neck on election day!
“I declare President Trump will overcome every strategy from hell, and every strategy of the enemy, every strategy, and he will fulfil his calling and his destiny.”...
She's married to one of the members of the band Journey who did "Don't Stop Believing..."
No, but it nearly all seems quite reasonable. Their current prediction Con 346 Lab 208 SNP 44 LD 29 is similar to my Con 335 Lab 221 SNP 44 LD 27.
It's both brave and useful to publish a table like this. As we saw in 2017, there is the possibility of everything being out of whack by several percent.
I suspect they've not (understandably) been able to allow for special factors. For example, I see their predicted score of 0.0% for the LDs and "others" in Broxtowe. They are endorsing Anna Soubry, who should turn up in one column or the other - I don't think she has any chance of winning, but she won't get 0 votes.
No, but it nearly all seems quite reasonable. Their current prediction Con 346 Lab 208 SNP 44 LD 29 is similar to my Con 335 Lab 221 SNP 44 LD 27.
It's both brave and useful to publish a table like this. As we saw in 2017, there is the possibility of everything being out of whack by several percent.
Here is my table for England and Wales. I also show the MRP projections for each seat for reference and comparison.
Living in a marginal Lab-Con constituency, I am astonished that with just 5 weeks to go there is next to nothing so far to suggest that a general election is going on here. Just a small A5 flyer from Labour with virtually no content and a couple of pretty routine mentions for the MP and challenger in the local paper. That's it. A complete contrast from the years worth of continuous bumpf that we received in 2015 (especially from the Tories) and so far nothing even to match the more concentrated 2017 campaign.
It wasn't as though an Autumn GE wasn't highly likely and yet it is obvious that both the Conservatives and Labour have failed to take action nationally to prepare their ground game in key constituencies at a national level, relying on local parties to instigate early campaigning (or not, at least here). I excuse the LDs since there is absolutely no reason for them to mount more than a paper campaign here.
It's varying enormously, I think. I know of one marginal seat where the Labour office isn't even replying to offers of help, and another where they are canvassing in 3 sessions a day already and are eager for help. The national parties are only just concluding candidate selection - my seat (Waverley) is a LibDem target (because they won the locals) and they finally selected last week, while in Guildford next door I gather they've been hammering away for ages.
No, but it nearly all seems quite reasonable. Their current prediction Con 346 Lab 208 SNP 44 LD 29 is similar to my Con 335 Lab 221 SNP 44 LD 27.
It's both brave and useful to publish a table like this. As we saw in 2017, there is the possibility of everything being out of whack by several percent.
Just been through it, concentrating on seats I know. Looks completely plausible, although sadly it predicts IDS will hold in Chingford.
But very much based on uniform regional swings. It takes no account of local factors. Does anyone really believe Labour will come 2nd to the Conservatives in Finchley and Golders Green?
By the way, expect the Remain Alliance announcement pretty soon - I know LibDems and Greens who are all lined up to simulate jumps of joy as they stand down for each other. As many as 80 seats is what I've heard.
The Tory campaign is all about "getting Brexit done" so that we can "focus on the priorities of the British people", so they implicitly agree that Brexit isn't one of them.
No, but it nearly all seems quite reasonable. Their current prediction Con 346 Lab 208 SNP 44 LD 29 is similar to my Con 335 Lab 221 SNP 44 LD 27.
It's both brave and useful to publish a table like this. As we saw in 2017, there is the possibility of everything being out of whack by several percent.
I suspect they've not (understandably) been able to allow for special factors. For example, I see their predicted score of 0.0% for the LDs and "others" in Broxtowe. They are endorsing Anna Soubry, who should turn up in one column or the other - I don't think she has any chance of winning, but she won't get 0 votes.
No, but it nearly all seems quite reasonable. Their current prediction Con 346 Lab 208 SNP 44 LD 29 is similar to my Con 335 Lab 221 SNP 44 LD 27.
It's both brave and useful to publish a table like this. As we saw in 2017, there is the possibility of everything being out of whack by several percent.
I suspect they've not (understandably) been able to allow for special factors. For example, I see their predicted score of 0.0% for the LDs and "others" in Broxtowe. They are endorsing Anna Soubry, who should turn up in one column or the other - I don't think she has any chance of winning, but she won't get 0 votes.
Yes, there is no 'independent' factor in any seat on that model. I'd also expect the LDs to score better in Finchley and Golders Green - no allowance for local factors. The Chorley data is also out of date.
That is what every reluctant Tory voter needs to be aware of, that and the make up of the new Tory intake. There will be no going back to one nation conservatism. The same is true of labour.
Disagree.
If politics were cricket then this election will see the T20 Brexit side out in the field looking to blast the opposition in a quick victory.
As soon as Brexit is over the line then the test match side will re-appear, with Captain Boris heading up a one-nation team, moving back to the centre of the pitch as the opposition disappear ever leftwards to the boundary ropes.
Or something.
Jeez. Is that an analogy or an hallucination ?
TBF there is a strange physical resemblance between Boris and Colin Cowdrey (or perhaps even 'Bunter' Key).
No, but it nearly all seems quite reasonable. Their current prediction Con 346 Lab 208 SNP 44 LD 29 is similar to my Con 335 Lab 221 SNP 44 LD 27.
It's both brave and useful to publish a table like this. As we saw in 2017, there is the possibility of everything being out of whack by several percent.
Here is my table for England and Wales. I also show the MRP projections for each seat for reference and comparison.
in your document, 3 seats in wales seem to have a 0% for labour? (the 3 seats are ceredigion, montgomery, and brecon - all of which you have as LD wins)
I've agreed to go canvassing (my debut) for Labour in Hampstead & Kilburn.
Tip: Take a wooden spoon/plastic spatula. Let the lurking dog sink it teeth into that rather than your fingers, as you poke "sorry we missed you" leaflets through the letterbox.
I've agreed to go canvassing (my debut) for Labour in Hampstead & Kilburn.
Have fun! After initial nervousness ("Will people ask me about our policy on sperm whales?") it becomes unscary and quite satisfying. Will be interesting to hear your impressions.
By the way, expect the Remain Alliance announcement pretty soon - I know LibDems and Greens who are all lined up to simulate jumps of joy as they stand down for each other. As many as 80 seats is what I've heard.
Does Swinson laud the activities of Extinction Rebellion, then, as Lucas does?
Must do if the libs are prepared to stand aside in some places.
Wonder if they know that in.....er.....Esher and Walton.
By the way, expect the Remain Alliance announcement pretty soon - I know LibDems and Greens who are all lined up to simulate jumps of joy as they stand down for each other. As many as 80 seats is what I've heard.
Does Swinson laud the activities of Extinction Rebellion, then, as Lucas does?
Must do if the libs are prepared to stand aside in some places.
Wonder if they know that in.....er.....Esher and Walton.
I've agreed to go canvassing (my debut) for Labour in Hampstead & Kilburn.
It's my first time as well.
Looking forward to it but i'm hoping for some guidance on dealing with less receptive householders.
I'm assuming my usual response to being challenged by strangers of a short jab followed by a heavy cross isn't going to help my candidate particularly.
That is what every reluctant Tory voter needs to be aware of, that and the make up of the new Tory intake. There will be no going back to one nation conservatism. The same is true of labour.
Disagree.
If politics were cricket then this election will see the T20 Brexit side out in the field looking to blast the opposition in a quick victory.
As soon as Brexit is over the line then the test match side will re-appear, with Captain Boris heading up a one-nation team, moving back to the centre of the pitch as the opposition disappear ever leftwards to the boundary ropes.
Or something.
Jeez. Is that an analogy or an hallucination ?
TBF there is a strange physical resemblance between Boris and Colin Cowdrey (or perhaps even 'Bunter' Key).
Living in a marginal Lab-Con constituency, I am astonished that with just 5 weeks to go there is next to nothing so far to suggest that a general election is going on here. Just a small A5 flyer from Labour with virtually no content and a couple of pretty routine mentions for the MP and challenger in the local paper. That's it. A complete contrast from the years worth of continuous bumpf that we received in 2015 (especially from the Tories) and so far nothing even to match the more concentrated 2017 campaign.
It wasn't as though an Autumn GE wasn't highly likely and yet it is obvious that both the Conservatives and Labour have failed to take action nationally to prepare their ground game in key constituencies at a national level, relying on local parties to instigate early campaigning (or not, at least here). I excuse the LDs since there is absolutely no reason for them to mount more than a paper campaign here.
It's varying enormously, I think. I know of one marginal seat where the Labour office isn't even replying to offers of help, and another where they are canvassing in 3 sessions a day already and are eager for help. The national parties are only just concluding candidate selection - my seat (Waverley) is a LibDem target (because they won the locals) and they finally selected last week, while in Guildford next door I gather they've been hammering away for ages.
LDs and Conservatives have maintained regular door drops in Guildford since the last election (at least in Merrow). Labour seems to decamped to more promising territory (which presumably means a long trip to London or Crawley).
I've agreed to go canvassing (my debut) for Labour in Hampstead & Kilburn.
Have fun! After initial nervousness ("Will people ask me about our policy on sperm whales?") it becomes unscary and quite satisfying. Will be interesting to hear your impressions.
Does Labour have a policy on sperm whales? I'd rather assumed that ambergris was a 19th century hot topic.
I've agreed to go canvassing (my debut) for Labour in Hampstead & Kilburn.
Have fun! After initial nervousness ("Will people ask me about our policy on sperm whales?") it becomes unscary and quite satisfying. Will be interesting to hear your impressions.
Your policy on sperm whales should be to never, ever give away your secret family recipe..... (Cut the meat into slices, brown in the pan and put in a cooking pot or stew pan with the onions. Boil the water, stir in the tomato purée, salt and paprika and pour over the meat. Cook slowly for 14 to 30 minutes, or until the meat is tender. Serve with potatoes.)
By the way, expect the Remain Alliance announcement pretty soon - I know LibDems and Greens who are all lined up to simulate jumps of joy as they stand down for each other. As many as 80 seats is what I've heard.
Does Swinson laud the activities of Extinction Rebellion, then, as Lucas does?
Must do if the libs are prepared to stand aside in some places.
Wonder if they know that in.....er.....Esher and Walton.
The Green Party is not Extinction Rebellion and vice versa. Early in their existence ER demonstrated at a GP meeting.
I've agreed to go canvassing (my debut) for Labour in Hampstead & Kilburn.
Have fun! After initial nervousness ("Will people ask me about our policy on sperm whales?") it becomes unscary and quite satisfying. Will be interesting to hear your impressions.
Does Labour have a policy on sperm whales? I'd rather assumed that ambergris was a 19th century hot topic.
The truth is the Firefighters made huge mistakes that night and need to answer for them.
JRM is still a prat tho.
I've read most of the report. The tenants had repeated "stay where you are" messages - and even when it was belatedly decided to advise self-evacuation the clarity of the message ranged from "get out or you'll die" to "it might be a good idea...'
The Firefighters performed heroically, above and beyond the call of duty.
The Fire Brigade performed poorly - inadequate training and far too slow to recognise that the fire was out of control - and from the testimony to the enquiry its leadership unlikely to learn from the experience.
What no one anticipated - and I suspect is still not widely known - was that many of the first to die were in flats furthest from the fire's origin - on the top floors, while the fire started on the fourth - but had reached the top of the building in under half an hour, then burning back down.
JRM is pompous opinionated and nowhere near as clever as he thinks he is - lets hope we next hear from him on December 13th, making his ungracious concession speech.....
How big a pool of voters do you think there are who would vote for an ambiguous Brexit strategy?
I can't think of many people I have met recently who have said they have no idea what we should do about Brexit and if only there was a party who were equally confused that they could vote for.
People will be voting for Labour despite their Brexit policy not because of it.
I will pitch it as below -
If you want to stop Brexit you need Ref2. Labour is the party offering that. Ergo, vote Labour for a chance - the ONLY chance - to stop Brexit.
I'm confident that most voters I meet will grasp it. If they can't, even after my efforts, I will just drop it and switch the subject to something more on their level, such as do they like Jeremy's beard.
I've agreed to go canvassing (my debut) for Labour in Hampstead & Kilburn.
It's my first time as well.
Looking forward to it but i'm hoping for some guidance on dealing with less receptive householders.
I'm assuming my usual response to being challenged by strangers of a short jab followed by a heavy cross isn't going to help my candidate particularly.
Remember it's not your job to convince them, just to work out whose side they are on (and you should have much of that info already). Entertain as many conversations as you feel you want to and reply with a prompt "thank you good night" to those you don't.
As a PB-er I would expect you to enjoy the exchanges with those who have something to say. Same with @kinabalu.
I've agreed to go canvassing (my debut) for Labour in Hampstead & Kilburn.
Have fun! After initial nervousness ("Will people ask me about our policy on sperm whales?") it becomes unscary and quite satisfying. Will be interesting to hear your impressions.
Your policy on sperm whales should be to never, ever give away your secret family recipe..... (Cut the meat into slices, brown in the pan and put in a cooking pot or stew pan with the onions. Boil the water, stir in the tomato purée, salt and paprika and pour over the meat. Cook slowly for 14 to 30 minutes, or until the meat is tender. Serve with potatoes.)
Quite so. One of Greta's strongest points is that sperm whales are responsible for 97% of global warming. HARVEST THEM.
I've agreed to go canvassing (my debut) for Labour in Hampstead & Kilburn.
Have fun! After initial nervousness ("Will people ask me about our policy on sperm whales?") it becomes unscary and quite satisfying. Will be interesting to hear your impressions.
Does Labour have a policy on sperm whales? I'd rather assumed that ambergris was a 19th century hot topic.
I rather assumed 'sperm whale' was some sort of obtuse reference to Boris and his rather unpleasant personal habits and appearance.
If that Ipsos Mori poll is new, why are the changes listed since September?
It's not. It's their Oct 25-28 poll, reheated.
Nick, any thoughts on Ashfield?
I don't know anything about the current squabble. When I was in Broxtowe next door, Ashfield politics was famously internecine with real venom within and across parties. The LibDems were the worst but Labour and Tories weren't far behind, and it was reinforced by scurrilous anonymous leaflets which were (fairly or not, who knows) generally thought to be from the BNP. It seemed to have settled down under Gloria so I'm sorry to see they're at it again.
No, but it nearly all seems quite reasonable. Their current prediction Con 346 Lab 208 SNP 44 LD 29 is similar to my Con 335 Lab 221 SNP 44 LD 27.
It's both brave and useful to publish a table like this. As we saw in 2017, there is the possibility of everything being out of whack by several percent.
Here is my table for England and Wales. I also show the MRP projections for each seat for reference and comparison.
David Cameron's entire political project was a rolling capitulation to the Spartans. They couldn't have dreamt of a more useful idiot.
There were at least 4m people comprising 13% of the vote who had been effectively disenfranchised and hence their pressure group, UKIP, forced a policy change on one of the parties in exchange for votes. It's how politics works.
No, but it nearly all seems quite reasonable. Their current prediction Con 346 Lab 208 SNP 44 LD 29 is similar to my Con 335 Lab 221 SNP 44 LD 27.
It's both brave and useful to publish a table like this. As we saw in 2017, there is the possibility of everything being out of whack by several percent.
Here is my table for England and Wales. I also show the MRP projections for each seat for reference and comparison.
Many thanks for sharing that. I think though that your model underestimates the impact of the Leave/Remain % on the seat outcomes. For example, in LD held Carshalton which voted 56% to Leave you have the Conservatives and BXP with only 35% between them.
If you want to stop Brexit you need Ref2. Labour is the party offering that. Ergo, vote Labour for a chance - the ONLY chance - to stop Brexit.
I'm confident that most voters I meet will grasp it. If they can't, even after my efforts, I will just drop it and switch the subject to something more on their level, such as do they like Jeremy's beard.
Far be it from me to help the opposition but anybody listening to you will be hearing...stop Brexit, stop Brexit.
If you're in the south I suspect the LD's will have that particular angle covered and if you're in the north voters won't want to hear it.
How big a pool of voters do you think there are who would vote for an ambiguous Brexit strategy?
I can't think of many people I have met recently who have said they have no idea what we should do about Brexit and if only there was a party who were equally confused that they could vote for.
People will be voting for Labour despite their Brexit policy not because of it.
I will pitch it as below -
If you want to stop Brexit you need Ref2. Labour is the party offering that. Ergo, vote Labour for a chance - the ONLY chance - to stop Brexit.
I'm confident that most voters I meet will grasp it. If they can't, even after my efforts, I will just drop it and switch the subject to something more on their level, such as do they like Jeremy's beard.
What will you answer when they ask: Does Jeremy want to stop Brexit?
Re the Bercow tweet. Aren’t ex-speakers supposed to remain impartial? I don’t recall Boothroyd immediately resuming partisan operations the day after she stood down.
David Cameron's entire political project was a rolling capitulation to the Spartans. They couldn't have dreamt of a more useful idiot.
There were at least 4m people comprising 13% of the vote who had been effectively disenfranchised and hence their pressure group, UKIP, forced a policy change on one of the parties in exchange for votes. It's how politics works.
Effectively disenfranchised? That is absurd propaganda. Do you believe that representative democracy under FPTP disenfranchises everyone who disagrees with the two main parties on a given issue?
I've agreed to go canvassing (my debut) for Labour in Hampstead & Kilburn.
Have fun! After initial nervousness ("Will people ask me about our policy on sperm whales?") it becomes unscary and quite satisfying. Will be interesting to hear your impressions.
Your policy on sperm whales should be to never, ever give away your secret family recipe..... (Cut the meat into slices, brown in the pan and put in a cooking pot or stew pan with the onions. Boil the water, stir in the tomato purée, salt and paprika and pour over the meat. Cook slowly for 14 to 30 minutes, or until the meat is tender. Serve with potatoes.)
Re the Bercow tweet. Aren’t ex-speakers supposed to remain impartial? I don’t recall Boothroyd immediately resuming partisan operations the day after she stood down.
Effectively disenfranchised? That is absurd propaganda. Do you believe that representative democracy under FPTP disenfranchises everyone who disagrees with the two main parties on a given issue?
Isn't one of the main arguments against FPTP that it effectively disenfranchises many voters who support the policies of the smaller parties?
Tip: Take a wooden spoon/plastic spatula. Let the lurking dog sink it teeth into that rather than your fingers, as you poke "sorry we missed you" leaflets through the letterbox.
Oh lord. I'm scared of dogs too. I was savaged by an Alsatian when I was 5 (I was stealing its bone) which I suppose accounts for it. So door to door would not be great for me. I'm doing a stall and perhaps also some telephone. Think that will be more manageable.
I've agreed to go canvassing (my debut) for Labour in Hampstead & Kilburn.
Have fun! After initial nervousness ("Will people ask me about our policy on sperm whales?") it becomes unscary and quite satisfying. Will be interesting to hear your impressions.
Your policy on sperm whales should be to never, ever give away your secret family recipe..... (Cut the meat into slices, brown in the pan and put in a cooking pot or stew pan with the onions. Boil the water, stir in the tomato purée, salt and paprika and pour over the meat. Cook slowly for 14 to 30 minutes, or until the meat is tender. Serve with potatoes.)
And the leftovers?
I once found a whale's tail washed up on the beach.
I've never seen one before or since, so I suppose it must have been a fluke.
David Cameron's entire political project was a rolling capitulation to the Spartans. They couldn't have dreamt of a more useful idiot.
There were at least 4m people comprising 13% of the vote who had been effectively disenfranchised and hence their pressure group, UKIP, forced a policy change on one of the parties in exchange for votes. It's how politics works.
Effectively disenfranchised? That is absurd propaganda. Do you believe that representative democracy under FPTP disenfranchises everyone who disagrees with the two main parties on a given issue?
I believe that pressure groups are there to agitate for their desired outcome. Whether it be to stop carbon emissions, bring back foxhunting, or to leave the European Union. Political parties either ignore them or, seeing electoral advantage, incorporate to some degree their demands.
That is what David Cameron did and 17.4m people decided to vote to leave the European Union.
Re the Bercow tweet. Aren’t ex-speakers supposed to remain impartial? I don’t recall Boothroyd immediately resuming partisan operations the day after she stood down.
What do you want to do? Sack him?
Aren’t we allowed to criticise people’s behaviour?
Re the Bercow tweet. Aren’t ex-speakers supposed to remain impartial? I don’t recall Boothroyd immediately resuming partisan operations the day after she stood down.
I've agreed to go canvassing (my debut) for Labour in Hampstead & Kilburn.
Have fun! After initial nervousness ("Will people ask me about our policy on sperm whales?") it becomes unscary and quite satisfying. Will be interesting to hear your impressions.
Your policy on sperm whales should be to never, ever give away your secret family recipe..... (Cut the meat into slices, brown in the pan and put in a cooking pot or stew pan with the onions. Boil the water, stir in the tomato purée, salt and paprika and pour over the meat. Cook slowly for 14 to 30 minutes, or until the meat is tender. Serve with potatoes.)
Please do not remind me, even tangentially, of that disgusting petrified shark in Iceland (the country).
No, but it nearly all seems quite reasonable. Their current prediction Con 346 Lab 208 SNP 44 LD 29 is similar to my Con 335 Lab 221 SNP 44 LD 27.
It's both brave and useful to publish a table like this. As we saw in 2017, there is the possibility of everything being out of whack by several percent.
Here is my table for England and Wales. I also show the MRP projections for each seat for reference and comparison.
Many thanks for sharing that. I think though that your model underestimates the impact of the Leave/Remain % on the seat outcomes. For example, in LD held Carshalton which voted 56% to Leave you have the Conservatives and BXP with only 35% between them.
LDs held North Norfolk and took Eastbourne despite both voting Leave. There is more to a GE than Brexit, and will be again.
I've agreed to go canvassing (my debut) for Labour in Hampstead & Kilburn.
Have fun! After initial nervousness ("Will people ask me about our policy on sperm whales?") it becomes unscary and quite satisfying. Will be interesting to hear your impressions.
Your policy on sperm whales should be to never, ever give away your secret family recipe..... (Cut the meat into slices, brown in the pan and put in a cooking pot or stew pan with the onions. Boil the water, stir in the tomato purée, salt and paprika and pour over the meat. Cook slowly for 14 to 30 minutes, or until the meat is tender. Serve with potatoes.)
And the leftovers?
I once found a whale's tail washed up on the beach.
I've never seen one before or since, so I suppose it must have been a fluke.
That post breaches the PB.com guidelines on punning.
I've agreed to go canvassing (my debut) for Labour in Hampstead & Kilburn.
Have fun! After initial nervousness ("Will people ask me about our policy on sperm whales?") it becomes unscary and quite satisfying. Will be interesting to hear your impressions.
Your policy on sperm whales should be to never, ever give away your secret family recipe..... (Cut the meat into slices, brown in the pan and put in a cooking pot or stew pan with the onions. Boil the water, stir in the tomato purée, salt and paprika and pour over the meat. Cook slowly for 14 to 30 minutes, or until the meat is tender. Serve with potatoes.)
Please do not remind me, even tangentially, of that disgusting petrified shark in Iceland (the country).
I would normally say "Well, no-one put a gun to your head", but.....
I've agreed to go canvassing (my debut) for Labour in Hampstead & Kilburn.
Have fun! After initial nervousness ("Will people ask me about our policy on sperm whales?") it becomes unscary and quite satisfying. Will be interesting to hear your impressions.
Your policy on sperm whales should be to never, ever give away your secret family recipe..... (Cut the meat into slices, brown in the pan and put in a cooking pot or stew pan with the onions. Boil the water, stir in the tomato purée, salt and paprika and pour over the meat. Cook slowly for 14 to 30 minutes, or until the meat is tender. Serve with potatoes.)
And the leftovers?
I once found a whale's tail washed up on the beach.
I've never seen one before or since, so I suppose it must have been a fluke.
That post breaches the PB.com guidelines on punning.
Comments
And we shall see whether, by hook or by crook, and in some format or another, we will get Brexit. My thinking is that we will.
I have long said on here that no deal, while hugely damaging for the country in many ways, is nevertheless a valid way of honouring the referendum result. Cummings gets this. I don't happen to think, however, that any PM will allow it, but I have no truck with those who say "there was no mandate for no deal". The famous ballot paper and its infamous brevity gave a mandate for any Brexit whatsoever, from full EEA/EFTA to no deal. Cummings has borne that in mind in his behaviour.
As far as the neighbouring constituency of Braintree is concerned someone's suggested on the local Facebook page that people should vote wisely, not cleverly.
Bet they won't dare try it again in the next five weeks.
All wasted effort.
His firm were told to stay put after the first strike but he immediately thought 'b8llocks to that' and headed straight for the elevator.
There will always be EU grist to add to every GE mill which will be useful for firing up potential Tory voters.
Labour on the other hand will have a horrendous internal war about how to position themselves in the future. Referendum on rejoining? Straight rejoin without a referendum? Stay out of the EU?
This election isn't just about Brexit, it is about the next 2 or 3 elections.
They edited the footage so the ensuing controversy would ensure it got tens of thousands of more shares.
It worked.
It's both brave and useful to publish a table like this. As we saw in 2017, there is the possibility of everything being out of whack by several percent.
https://mobile.twitter.com/latelateshow/status/1191957918305927168
Labour's Brexit policy, as we have all agreed on here, is ludicrous.
The clip just illustrates that.
https://twitter.com/EvanMcMullin/status/1192097434521886720?s=19
I understand Labour need to sell their fudge on the doorsteps but there is literally not a single poster on here who doesn't see it for what is.
If you believe that is an effective place to be then I would disagree. People have 0.94% of their time for this stuff (PB excepted) and want clear, simple options.
https://twitter.com/hstplabour/status/1192108294745264134
I can't think of many people I have met recently who have said they have no idea what we should do about Brexit and if only there was a party who were equally confused that they could vote for.
People will be voting for Labour despite their Brexit policy not because of it.
Is that an analogy or an hallucination ?
https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2019/11/paula-white-donald-trumps-new-white-house-adviser-ratchets-up-fake-news-rhetoric-denouncing-demonic-networks.html
“We are not wrestling against flesh and blood but against principalities, powers, against rulers of darkness of this world, against spiritual wickedness in high places,” White declared in the sermon. “So right now let every demonic network that has aligned itself against the purpose, against the calling of President Trump, let it be broken, let it be torn down in the name of Jesus.”
“I declare President Trump will overcome every strategy from hell, and every strategy of the enemy, every strategy, and he will fulfil his calling and his destiny.”...
I've always been taught to quietly applaud ambition. In this case I feel a standing ovation is in order.
If Boris returned as PM: Boris WA / PD passed and A50 exit on 31/1
After 31/1 will soon become apparent that FTA negotiation is as fraught as WA. Lots of fish stories (and equivalent) in UK press.
Course of FTA will depend on size of majority.
Majority large enough:
Something will be agreed and transition exit will be end 2020
I'm not too worried about formal no deal.
The something is likely to be a moderately coherent bundle of mini-deals, akin to EU-US arrangements, but with some difficult areas sat out (e.g. fisheries)
This may not be an FTA because, by WTO definition, an FTA is something that broadly covers most sectors (but it could just be a skeleton FTA)
The need for a deal means it will be on sub optimal terms for GB
2021:
GB will have encountered / be encountering cyclical recession
The chilling effect of Brexit trade limitations will be kicking in - not the full No Deal, but there will be queues at Dover, less food choice etc., even with what has been agreed
Severe double dip / further downward lurch will be on the horizon
There will be urgency around any work to expand the deals, progress the FTA.
2023:
GB growth may recover on capital inflow from the East into cities masking many issues, but GB will be even more prone to capital outwash as Global structural issues continue to make things wobble.
But out with cities economy will stay anaemic on many fundamentals.
Additional mini deals or an FTA will still be central on the political agenda, because small town GB will continue to hurt badly from Brexit.
Also NI divergence will be hurting, and the need for a closer relationship to ease woes across the North Passage will be a strong pressure.
The urgency will not be advantageous to GB.
A smaller Con majority to me leads to a similar dynamic to that just passed: ERG No Deal (the EU are riding over us on specifics) Vs parliamentary moves to try and force extension of Transition
Rather less ambitious than lovely Jo.
We need more polls!
My seat total for GB are Con/Lab/LD 322/222/35
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing
https://twitter.com/MikeSassi/status/1192104148503867393?s=19
Leicester is on Opel 4* too.
*the new euphemism for black alert.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election#Seat_predictions
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1191847916903768065?s=19
I've agreed to go canvassing (my debut) for Labour in Hampstead & Kilburn.
https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1192096339322187776?s=20
(the 3 seats are ceredigion, montgomery, and brecon - all of which you have as LD wins)
"I don't have to be impartial now".
He might want to take a look at the speeches by the new speaker candidates and the reactions from MPs.
As a number of the candidates alluded to he will be remembered as a partisan, biased speaker who debased and diminished the role.
Arse of a man.
Must do if the libs are prepared to stand aside in some places.
Wonder if they know that in.....er.....Esher and Walton.
Looking forward to it but i'm hoping for some guidance on dealing with less receptive householders.
I'm assuming my usual response to being challenged by strangers of a short jab followed by a heavy cross isn't going to help my candidate particularly.
The Firefighters performed heroically, above and beyond the call of duty.
The Fire Brigade performed poorly - inadequate training and far too slow to recognise that the fire was out of control - and from the testimony to the enquiry its leadership unlikely to learn from the experience.
What no one anticipated - and I suspect is still not widely known - was that many of the first to die were in flats furthest from the fire's origin - on the top floors, while the fire started on the fourth - but had reached the top of the building in under half an hour, then burning back down.
JRM is pompous opinionated and nowhere near as clever as he thinks he is - lets hope we next hear from him on December 13th, making his ungracious concession speech.....
If you want to stop Brexit you need Ref2. Labour is the party offering that. Ergo, vote Labour for a chance - the ONLY chance - to stop Brexit.
I'm confident that most voters I meet will grasp it. If they can't, even after my efforts, I will just drop it and switch the subject to something more on their level, such as do they like Jeremy's beard.
As a PB-er I would expect you to enjoy the exchanges with those who have something to say. Same with @kinabalu.
Stalybridge & Hyde going Blue.....
If they get that one right (requires 9.6% swing, with BXP in play as well), that is a Canterbury / Kensington scale prediction.
If you're in the south I suspect the LD's will have that particular angle covered and if you're in the north voters won't want to hear it.
It never occurred to me that Bercow opposed Brexit.
I've never seen one before or since, so I suppose it must have been a fluke.
That is what David Cameron did and 17.4m people decided to vote to leave the European Union.