Have fun! After initial nervousness ("Will people ask me about our policy on sperm whales?") it becomes unscary and quite satisfying. Will be interesting to hear your impressions.
Thank you!
It will be a great test of whether what I keep saying on here - that the Brexit policy is actually very easy to understand - is in practice true.
How big a pool of voters do you think there are who would vote for an ambiguous Brexit strategy?
I can't think of many people I have met recently who have said they have no idea what we should do about Brexit and if only there was a party who were equally confused that they could vote for.
People will be voting for Labour despite their Brexit policy not because of it.
I will pitch it as below -
If you want to stop Brexit you need Ref2. Labour is the party offering that. Ergo, vote Labour for a chance - the ONLY chance - to stop Brexit.
I'm confident that most voters I meet will grasp it. If they can't, even after my efforts, I will just drop it and switch the subject to something more on their level, such as do they like Jeremy's beard.
The problem with that approach is it is two years out of date. Labour should have insisted on a referendum on May's deal 18 months ago. That was the time when it should have been called. But actually they refused to get off the fence and the Tories managed to lose their majority and build the rhetoric that the way to break the Brexit impasse is to have a general election.
Having agreed to that approach I personally see no need to have Ref2 to stop Brexit. Parties stand on a manifesto to form a government and the winner implements that manifesto. So if a party was to stand on a manifesto to revoke and win the election (which was called to break the Brexit impasse) then they can just revoke and we can all move on.
Personally while I am not opposed to Labour's position on a question of principle it is, in my view, two years too late.
How big a pool of voters do you think there are who would vote for an ambiguous Brexit strategy?
I can't think of many people I have met recently who have said they have no idea what we should do about Brexit and if only there was a party who were equally confused that they could vote for.
People will be voting for Labour despite their Brexit policy not because of it.
I will pitch it as below -
If you want to stop Brexit you need Ref2. Labour is the party offering that. Ergo, vote Labour for a chance - the ONLY chance - to stop Brexit.
I'm confident that most voters I meet will grasp it. If they can't, even after my efforts, I will just drop it and switch the subject to something more on their level, such as do they like Jeremy's beard.
The problem with that approach is it is two years out of date. Labour should have insisted on a referendum on May's deal 18 months ago. That was the time when it should have been called. But actually they refused to get off the fence and the Tories managed to lose their majority and build the rhetoric that the way to break the Brexit impasse is to have a general election.
Having agreed to that approach I personally see no need to have Ref2 to stop Brexit. Parties stand on a manifesto to form a government and the winner implements that manifesto. So if a party was to stand on a manifesto to revoke and win the election (which was called to break the Brexit impasse) then they can just revoke and we can all move on.
Personally while I am not opposed to Labour's position on a question of principle it is, in my view, two years too late.
Good post. Some people think that democracy should begin and end with an episode of direct democracy whereas the referendum was a blip amongst our representative democracy. Any party who wins a GE promising to revoke Article 50 or get some ships and tow the UK towards France will be perfectly and legitimately entitled to do that and it will be a democratic decision.
I've agreed to go canvassing (my debut) for Labour in Hampstead & Kilburn.
It's my first time as well.
Looking forward to it but i'm hoping for some guidance on dealing with less receptive householders.
I'm assuming my usual response to being challenged by strangers of a short jab followed by a heavy cross isn't going to help my candidate particularly.
Remember it's not your job to convince them, just to work out whose side they are on (and you should have much of that info already). Entertain as many conversations as you feel you want to and reply with a prompt "thank you good night" to those you don't.
As a PB-er I would expect you to enjoy the exchanges with those who have something to say. Same with @kinabalu.
In my experience voters are usually fairly polite when face to face with a canvasser even if they passionately disagree them.
Of course this may have gone to pot since the Brexit vote, it seems to have in every other walk of life.
David Cameron's entire political project was a rolling capitulation to the Spartans. They couldn't have dreamt of a more useful idiot.
The surprise will be when someone with a serious level of job responsibility says that Brexit is a triumph for UK soft power, will make the UK a titan on the world stage, will improve the lives of pensioners in Cleethorpes, etc. I can think of just one person in that kind of job who opposes EU membership, i.e. Mervyn King, ex-BoE.
I've agreed to go canvassing (my debut) for Labour in Hampstead & Kilburn.
It's my first time as well.
Looking forward to it but i'm hoping for some guidance on dealing with less receptive householders.
I'm assuming my usual response to being challenged by strangers of a short jab followed by a heavy cross isn't going to help my candidate particularly.
Remember it's not your job to convince them, just to work out whose side they are on (and you should have much of that info already). Entertain as many conversations as you feel you want to and reply with a prompt "thank you good night" to those you don't.
As a PB-er I would expect you to enjoy the exchanges with those who have something to say. Same with @kinabalu.
In my experience voters are usually fairly polite when face to face with a canvasser even if they passionately disagree them.
Of course this may have gone to pot since the Brexit vote, it seems to have in every other walk of life.
It went to pot since the Brexit vote. Was called a nazi and the rest on the doorstep. Including by Conservatives.
(tbf that was in response to the proposed alien registration scheme, but everyone was angry.)
If that Ipsos Mori poll is new, why are the changes listed since September?
It's not. It's their Oct 25-28 poll, reheated.
Nick, any thoughts on Ashfield?
I don't know anything about the current squabble. When I was in Broxtowe next door, Ashfield politics was famously internecine with real venom within and across parties. The LibDems were the worst but Labour and Tories weren't far behind, and it was reinforced by scurrilous anonymous leaflets which were (fairly or not, who knows) generally thought to be from the BNP. It seemed to have settled down under Gloria so I'm sorry to see they're at it again.
Thanks, Nick.
I find the language quite emotive her, ...internecine...venom...yet very little actual detail. What were the LibDems the worst at? why pick on them?
Could be worse - nice to see Labour static. Now that the Tories have actually begun their campaign one might hope for an improvement in their number next time.
I know it could be noise, but interesting that the 2 points lost by the Tories haven't gone over to the Brexit Party, but the aggregate of the two is down as well.
Labour/Lib Dems need to be driving that aggregate down, rather than relying on the Brexit Party splitting the vote.
No, but it nearly all seems quite reasonable. Their current prediction Con 346 Lab 208 SNP 44 LD 29 is similar to my Con 335 Lab 221 SNP 44 LD 27.
It's both brave and useful to publish a table like this. As we saw in 2017, there is the possibility of everything being out of whack by several percent.
Here is my table for England and Wales. I also show the MRP projections for each seat for reference and comparison.
If that Ipsos Mori poll is new, why are the changes listed since September?
It's not. It's their Oct 25-28 poll, reheated.
Nick, any thoughts on Ashfield?
I don't know anything about the current squabble. When I was in Broxtowe next door, Ashfield politics was famously internecine with real venom within and across parties. The LibDems were the worst but Labour and Tories weren't far behind, and it was reinforced by scurrilous anonymous leaflets which were (fairly or not, who knows) generally thought to be from the BNP. It seemed to have settled down under Gloria so I'm sorry to see they're at it again.
Thanks, Nick.
I find the language quite emotive her, ...internecine...venom...yet very little actual detail. What were the LibDems the worst at? why pick on them?
Re the Bercow tweet. Aren’t ex-speakers supposed to remain impartial? I don’t recall Boothroyd immediately resuming partisan operations the day after she stood down.
I'm confused because some people defended him as speaker by saying impartiality was not critical, but hes saying it was and he was, but doesnt have to be now.
But while I'd prefer they remain relatively impartial- and sit as crossbenchers - he doesnt have to do what is traditionally done or is supposed to do. Whether that's a good idea is another matter.
Could be worse - nice to see Labour static. Now that the Tories have actually begun their campaign one might hope for an improvement in their number next time.
Didn’t the Tory campaign start when the Queen was required to read out their lines to take?
I've agreed to go canvassing (my debut) for Labour in Hampstead & Kilburn.
It's my first time as well.
Looking forward to it but i'm hoping for some guidance on dealing with less receptive householders.
I'm assuming my usual response to being challenged by strangers of a short jab followed by a heavy cross isn't going to help my candidate particularly.
Remember it's not your job to convince them, just to work out whose side they are on (and you should have much of that info already). Entertain as many conversations as you feel you want to and reply with a prompt "thank you good night" to those you don't.
As a PB-er I would expect you to enjoy the exchanges with those who have something to say. Same with @kinabalu.
In my experience voters are usually fairly polite when face to face with a canvasser even if they passionately disagree them.
Of course this may have gone to pot since the Brexit vote, it seems to have in every other walk of life.
It went to pot since the Brexit vote. Was called a nazi and the rest on the doorstep. Including by Conservatives.
(tbf that was in response to the proposed alien registration scheme, but everyone was angry.)
I know it could be noise, but interesting that the 2 points lost by the Tories haven't gone over to the Brexit Party, but the aggregate of the two is down as well.
Labour/Lib Dems need to be driving that aggregate down, rather than relying on the Brexit Party splitting the vote.
47%, give or take 2%, is where their combined vote has been for months.
So in a poll taken yesterday and today and despite supposedly the worst start to a general election campaign ever for the Tories they are still polling at Cameron 2015 levels and Corbyn Labour are still polling worse than Foot 1983 and have not picked up a single point. Indeed the only party to gain have been the LDs and only by a point
I've agreed to go canvassing (my debut) for Labour in Hampstead & Kilburn.
It's my first time as well.
Looking forward to it but i'm hoping for some guidance on dealing with less receptive householders.
I'm assuming my usual response to being challenged by strangers of a short jab followed by a heavy cross isn't going to help my candidate particularly.
Remember it's not your job to convince them, just to work out whose side they are on (and you should have much of that info already). Entertain as many conversations as you feel you want to and reply with a prompt "thank you good night" to those you don't.
As a PB-er I would expect you to enjoy the exchanges with those who have something to say. Same with @kinabalu.
In my experience voters are usually fairly polite when face to face with a canvasser even if they passionately disagree them.
Of course this may have gone to pot since the Brexit vote, it seems to have in every other walk of life.
It went to pot since the Brexit vote. Was called a nazi and the rest on the doorstep. Including by Conservatives.
(tbf that was in response to the proposed alien registration scheme, but everyone was angry.)
The ones from Alpha Centauri are the worst....
They keep teleporting away when they should be signing their registration forms.
If that Ipsos Mori poll is new, why are the changes listed since September?
It's not. It's their Oct 25-28 poll, reheated.
Nick, any thoughts on Ashfield?
I don't know anything about the current squabble. When I was in Broxtowe next door, Ashfield politics was famously internecine with real venom within and across parties. The LibDems were the worst but Labour and Tories weren't far behind, and it was reinforced by scurrilous anonymous leaflets which were (fairly or not, who knows) generally thought to be from the BNP. It seemed to have settled down under Gloria so I'm sorry to see they're at it again.
Thanks, Nick.
I find the language quite emotive her, ...internecine...venom...yet very little actual detail. What were the LibDems the worst at? why pick on them?
So in a poll taken yesterday and today and despite supposedly the worst start to a general election campaign ever for the Tories they are still polling at Cameron 2015 levels and Labour are still polling worse than Foot 1983 and have not picked up a single point. Indeed the only party to gain have been the LDs and only by a point
At no point during Theresa May's 2017 campaign did you poll as badly as this.
So in a poll taken yesterday and today and despite supposedly the worst start to a general election campaign ever for the Tories they are still polling at Cameron 2015 levels and Corbyn Labour are still polling worse than Foot 1983 and have not picked up a single point. Indeed the only party to gain have been the LDs and only by a point
Polls always take time to react to current events that are not cataclysmic.
Are you implying the libdems were annoyed because he left the party?
No, I'm pointing out that there was clearly bad feeling there, which probably explains what Nick said. More recently, there has also been bad feeling in the local Labour Party:
However, I only know what I've read in the national news sites, I have no local knowledge. That is why I was asking Nick about the constituency: the betting markets currently have Jason Zadrozny as the favourite, which is unusual for a purely local party.
So in a poll taken yesterday and today and despite supposedly the worst start to a general election campaign ever for the Tories they are still polling at Cameron 2015 levels and Corbyn Labour are still polling worse than Foot 1983 and have not picked up a single point. Indeed the only party to gain have been the LDs and only by a point
Polls always take time to react to current events that are not cataclysmic.
These are clearly Westminster bubble issues, swing voters could not care less
The YouGov poll must be a relief to the Lib Dems .
Stops the slide . Although to be blunt the less people see of Jo Swinson the better probably for the party . I just can’t warm to her and she seriously needs some good advice regarding her wardrobe which is shocking .
Don’t get me wrong I like the Lib Dems and hope they do well but Swinson just isn’t doing it for me as leader .
So in a poll taken yesterday and today and despite supposedly the worst start to a general election campaign ever for the Tories they are still polling at Cameron 2015 levels and Labour are still polling worse than Foot 1983 and have not picked up a single point. Indeed the only party to gain have been the LDs and only by a point
At no point during Theresa May's 2017 campaign did you poll as badly as this.
By this stage in 2017 Labour were polling above this
It’s interesting to pause and digest what the leader numbers mean. Corbyn does not satisfy at about half of Labour voters. I guess they believe he should be doing better. Whereas the other leaders seem to be able to reach beyond their voters.
Clearly Labour has to unfuck Corbyn in the way they did in 2017. The Tories and LibDems should be looking to reach those approvers.
Are you implying the libdems were annoyed because he left the party?
No, I'm pointing out that there was clearly bad feeling there, which probably explains what Nick said. More recently, there has also been bad feeling in the local Labour Party:
However, I only know what I've read in the national news sites, I have no local knowledge. That is why I was asking Nick about the constituency: the betting markets currently have Jason Zadrozny as the favourite, which is unusual for a purely local party.
Perhaps you know more about it?
Sadly I know very little as I am from Wales, nowhere near.
No, but it nearly all seems quite reasonable. Their current prediction Con 346 Lab 208 SNP 44 LD 29 is similar to my Con 335 Lab 221 SNP 44 LD 27.
It's both brave and useful to publish a table like this. As we saw in 2017, there is the possibility of everything being out of whack by several percent.
Here is my table for England and Wales. I also show the MRP projections for each seat for reference and comparison.
If they get that one right (requires 9.6% swing, with BXP in play as well), that is a Canterbury / Kensington scale prediction.
It's the The Best for Britain/Focal Data MRP .
The MRP has Stalybridge and Hyde Con/Lab as 33.2/32.8. My model has it as 32/44 - not even close.
I think your model is far better than the MRP one. To me the MRP one understates Labour in safe Labour seats by a considerable margin. I'm most familiar with the North West, and having Labour at 34% in Makerfield is nuts. 33% in Leigh also and having Labour in the 50s in the LIverpool seats also seems very low. Your numbers seem much nearer the mark. Maybe the MRP model is putting too much weight on leave % and UNS. The flip side is that it is presumably overstating Labour somewhere else.
Depends if Boris appoints a successor. David Jones is ready made having been SOS before
Also the overall direction of travel in Wales is positive
Just have Boris announce he is going to look again at the tidal lagoons if elected - and is minded to make Wales the first country in the world powered by waves....
I believe he already has said that, but it's just words without a firm step in that direction. I would have liked to see them sign the deal at a lower strike price - surely the existence of a rival scheme has brought a sense of realism to the tidal lagoon company.
The problem with that approach is it is two years out of date. Labour should have insisted on a referendum on May's deal 18 months ago. That was the time when it should have been called. But actually they refused to get off the fence and the Tories managed to lose their majority and build the rhetoric that the way to break the Brexit impasse is to have a general election.
Having agreed to that approach I personally see no need to have Ref2 to stop Brexit. Parties stand on a manifesto to form a government and the winner implements that manifesto. So if a party was to stand on a manifesto to revoke and win the election (which was called to break the Brexit impasse) then they can just revoke and we can all move on.
Personally while I am not opposed to Labour's position on a question of principle it is, in my view, two years too late.
Take your point but I do not think Labour could have forced Ref2 through the parliament just deceased. My view, with the perfect wisdom of hindsight, is they should have let May's Deal pass. That IMO would not have been the best thing for stopping Brexit (obvs) but it would have set up better GE prospects for Labour than we have right now.
The problem with that approach is it is two years out of date. Labour should have insisted on a referendum on May's deal 18 months ago. That was the time when it should have been called. But actually they refused to get off the fence and the Tories managed to lose their majority and build the rhetoric that the way to break the Brexit impasse is to have a general election.
Having agreed to that approach I personally see no need to have Ref2 to stop Brexit. Parties stand on a manifesto to form a government and the winner implements that manifesto. So if a party was to stand on a manifesto to revoke and win the election (which was called to break the Brexit impasse) then they can just revoke and we can all move on.
Personally while I am not opposed to Labour's position on a question of principle it is, in my view, two years too late.
Take your point but I do not think Labour could have forced Ref2 through the parliament just deceased. My view, with the perfect wisdom of hindsight, is they should have let May's Deal pass. That IMO would not have been the best thing for stopping Brexit (obvs) but it would have set up better GE prospects for Labour than we have right now.
I think at the moment May's deal was published, if either she or Corbyn had made a bold move and backed a referendum, it would have become inevitable.
I was a little worried. I did not receive any campaign literature from the LibDems on Saturday.
Nor on Sunday. Nor on Monday. Nor on Tuesday.
I had begun to fear that an incautious word or phrase of mine on pb.com may have caused the Liberal Democrats to take offence.
So picture my happiness when on returning home, there it was on the door-mat.
It is a little skinny, no bar charts or wacky statistics. Just a single piece of card telling me that the "Liberal Democrats are WINNING across the country". WINNING of course in orange capitals.
And now and then, it seems to drift into Keith Vaz's electoral vocabulary, with talk of LibDems being "on the up".
But, how consoling it is to know that normal service has been resumed.
@Benpointer and others who asked about 326 Politics.
326 Politics is the brainchild of John Sandall, a data scientist in London. He has a portfolio career, and has founded and run quite a few companies at this point. One of the young kids with a laptop and Python. Quite smart, keen about politics. Used to bop out of Newspeak House on Bethnal Green Road. Runs Python classes and data scientist courses to corporates, does Pol work in his spare time. Is building a bit of a rep. I think he's still involved with CampaignLab. Is the kind of person that can use the word "Hackathon" without giggling. Still young and hungry and a bit of an evangelist. Might go far, might not: it's a crowded game but he knows all the buzzwords. He presented to RSS in 2018 Cardiff. Not bad, but I didn't have the heart to tell him he'd used the wrong definition of swing. John Curtice was in the audience and was less inhibited. Decent chap, basically.
Far be it from me to help the opposition but anybody listening to you will be hearing...stop Brexit, stop Brexit.
If you're in the south I suspect the LD's will have that particular angle covered and if you're in the north voters won't want to hear it.
I'm not somebody with a particularly high opinion of the public's political nous but I do think they are capable of a little bit of nuance. For example, that it might be less traumatic for our democracy to Remain via Ref2 than via straight parliamentary Revoke. You might not agree with this - not sure I do tbh - but it's certainly a valid point and one that I think most people are capable of engaging with. To listen to you and @TOPPING etc it's as if to be effective in British politics these days, all you can do is roam around grunting basic slogans of maximum 3 words pitched at about primary school level. I want us to be better than that.
The problem with that approach is it is two years out of date. Labour should have insisted on a referendum on May's deal 18 months ago. That was the time when it should have been called. But actually they refused to get off the fence and the Tories managed to lose their majority and build the rhetoric that the way to break the Brexit impasse is to have a general election.
Having agreed to that approach I personally see no need to have Ref2 to stop Brexit. Parties stand on a manifesto to form a government and the winner implements that manifesto. So if a party was to stand on a manifesto to revoke and win the election (which was called to break the Brexit impasse) then they can just revoke and we can all move on.
Personally while I am not opposed to Labour's position on a question of principle it is, in my view, two years too late.
Take your point but I do not think Labour could have forced Ref2 through the parliament just deceased. My view, with the perfect wisdom of hindsight, is they should have let May's Deal pass. That IMO would not have been the best thing for stopping Brexit (obvs) but it would have set up better GE prospects for Labour than we have right now.
I think at the moment May's deal was published, if either she or Corbyn had made a bold move and backed a referendum, it would have become inevitable.
Agreed and the reality is that whatever deal is eventually done for Brexit it will look nothing like the fantasy that Vote Leave sold to the public so Brexit will continue to be an issue even after we have left. The whole Tory rhetoric about voting Tory to 'get Brexit done' is just another fantasy. This mess will go on on for another decade.
"Recent poll analysis"... by whom and how analysed? it sounds like tosh.
And it’s utter tosh of the toshest tripe. There’s been no polling in E&W and their candidate, Monica Harding, had to issue an humiliating apology (gleefully reported by Guido and others) for misrepresenting a Survation national survey and applying some form of flavible to it. She then whimpered about it being an innocent rookie error.....only to find that the candidate in Putney had done exactly the same. No one in this Board will be in the least bit surprised.
I haven’t yet been out haranguing the good denizens of the constituency but reports from those who have are pretty sanguine. There’s little doubt that Raab’s majority will fall - inevitable given the intense LD campaign - but at this stage I’d hazard a hold of between 10-15 k.
"We have already established what you are. Now we are merely haggling over the price..."
Sounds like begging to be honest.
The Lib Dem / Green tie up is a gift to the Tories as far as persuading BXP supporters over. If they can get them free, not much point in striking a deal.
I've agreed to go canvassing (my debut) for Labour in Hampstead & Kilburn.
It's my first time as well.
Looking forward to it but i'm hoping for some guidance on dealing with less receptive householders.
I'm assuming my usual response to being challenged by strangers of a short jab followed by a heavy cross isn't going to help my candidate particularly.
Remember it's not your job to convince them, just to work out whose side they are on (and you should have much of that info already). Entertain as many conversations as you feel you want to and reply with a prompt "thank you good night" to those you don't.
As a PB-er I would expect you to enjoy the exchanges with those who have something to say. Same with @kinabalu.
In my experience voters are usually fairly polite when face to face with a canvasser even if they passionately disagree them.
Of course this may have gone to pot since the Brexit vote, it seems to have in every other walk of life.
After Jeremy Thorpe advocated bombing Rhodesia I was ‘escorted off the premises’ several times while canvassing in a particularly Conservative area.
I've agreed to go canvassing (my debut) for Labour in Hampstead & Kilburn.
It's my first time as well.
Looking forward to it but i'm hoping for some guidance on dealing with less receptive householders.
I'm assuming my usual response to being challenged by strangers of a short jab followed by a heavy cross isn't going to help my candidate particularly.
Remember it's not your job to convince them, just to work out whose side they are on (and you should have much of that info already). Entertain as many conversations as you feel you want to and reply with a prompt "thank you good night" to those you don't.
As a PB-er I would expect you to enjoy the exchanges with those who have something to say. Same with @kinabalu.
In my experience voters are usually fairly polite when face to face with a canvasser even if they passionately disagree them.
Of course this may have gone to pot since the Brexit vote, it seems to have in every other walk of life.
After Jeremy Thorpe advocated bombing Rhodesia I was ‘escorted off the premises’ several times while canvassing in a particularly Conservative area.
I was once, as a Liberal, canvassing a very posh house, greeted with the following statement. My husband and I will be voting for you, but the servants vote Conservative.
Comments
Thank you!
It will be a great test of whether what I keep saying on here - that the Brexit policy is actually very easy to understand - is in practice true.
Having agreed to that approach I personally see no need to have Ref2 to stop Brexit. Parties stand on a manifesto to form a government and the winner implements that manifesto. So if a party was to stand on a manifesto to revoke and win the election (which was called to break the Brexit impasse) then they can just revoke and we can all move on.
Personally while I am not opposed to Labour's position on a question of principle it is, in my view, two years too late.
What can I do?
I want to go to Downing Street
And they sent me off to Crewe!
Don't leave us hanging.
Of course this may have gone to pot since the Brexit vote, it seems to have in every other walk of life.
(tbf that was in response to the proposed alien registration scheme, but everyone was angry.)
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1192125215301652481?s=20
Cardiff North: Anna McMorrin to hold her seat at evens (Bet365) looks better value today after some bad publicity for the tories in Whales.
Although only a 4 point Lab>Con swing is required, BXP have announced a candidate which will hopefully split the tory vote.
LibDems and Plaid are nowhere so Anna has the remainer tactical vote pretty much to herself in remainy Cardiff.
https://twitter.com/AdamSerwer/status/1192121072998658050?s=19
CON: 36% (-2)
LAB: 25% (=)
LDM: 17% (+1)
BXP: 11% (=)
Via @YouGov, 5-6 Nov.
Changes w/ 1-4 Nov.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1192126253622579200?s=19
Labour/Lib Dems need to be driving that aggregate down, rather than relying on the Brexit Party splitting the vote.
The MRP has Stalybridge and Hyde Con/Lab as 33.2/32.8.
My model has it as 32/44 - not even close.
Ah, more straws, thanks!
https://twitter.com/SallyGimson/status/1192117362075435008?s=20
But while I'd prefer they remain relatively impartial- and sit as crossbenchers - he doesnt have to do what is traditionally done or is supposed to do. Whether that's a good idea is another matter.
https://twitter.com/holland_tom/status/1192095471277359105
Still Con/Lab/LD 322/222/35
EDIT: Sporting Index has:
Con 319-327
Lab 210-218
LD 41-46
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/20/gloria-de-piero-quits-labour-frontbench-over-lack-of-tolerance
However, I only know what I've read in the national news sites, I have no local knowledge. That is why I was asking Nick about the constituency: the betting markets currently have Jason Zadrozny as the favourite, which is unusual for a purely local party.
Perhaps you know more about it?
Stops the slide . Although to be blunt the less people see of Jo Swinson the better probably for the party . I just can’t warm to her and she seriously needs some good advice regarding her wardrobe which is shocking .
Don’t get me wrong I like the Lib Dems and hope they do well but Swinson just isn’t doing it for me as leader .
Clearly Labour has to unfuck Corbyn in the way they did in 2017. The Tories and LibDems should be looking to reach those approvers.
https://twitter.com/michaelthrasher/status/1192062961323585536
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/national_general_election/
Think that will go down extremely well. People like to feel important.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/df8cjzcpgw/TheTimes_Sky_VI_191106_w.pdf
On the other hand, maybe it's as well they didn't, just in case there isn't a bounce ...
I think it’s utterly shameful what you’re doing.
They are on 11 per cent in that 'analysis'.
https://twitter.com/StephenDFisher/status/1192133105198469125
Nor on Sunday. Nor on Monday. Nor on Tuesday.
I had begun to fear that an incautious word or phrase of mine on pb.com may have caused the Liberal Democrats to take offence.
So picture my happiness when on returning home, there it was on the door-mat.
It is a little skinny, no bar charts or wacky statistics. Just a single piece of card telling me that the "Liberal Democrats are WINNING across the country". WINNING of course in orange capitals.
And now and then, it seems to drift into Keith Vaz's electoral vocabulary, with talk of LibDems being "on the up".
But, how consoling it is to know that normal service has been resumed.
https://twitter.com/StephenDFisher/status/1192133105198469125?s=20
'Wibbly wobbly Tory bottoms.'
'Cameron. Pledge a referendum on EU membership. NOW!'
'Osborne has to go.'
'That Michael Crick really is a ...'
326 Politics is the brainchild of John Sandall, a data scientist in London. He has a portfolio career, and has founded and run quite a few companies at this point. One of the young kids with a laptop and Python. Quite smart, keen about politics. Used to bop out of Newspeak House on Bethnal Green Road. Runs Python classes and data scientist courses to corporates, does Pol work in his spare time. Is building a bit of a rep. I think he's still involved with CampaignLab. Is the kind of person that can use the word "Hackathon" without giggling. Still young and hungry and a bit of an evangelist. Might go far, might not: it's a crowded game but he knows all the buzzwords. He presented to RSS in 2018 Cardiff. Not bad, but I didn't have the heart to tell him he'd used the wrong definition of swing. John Curtice was in the audience and was less inhibited. Decent chap, basically.
I haven’t yet been out haranguing the good denizens of the constituency but reports from those who have are pretty sanguine. There’s little doubt that Raab’s majority will fall - inevitable given the intense LD campaign - but at this stage I’d hazard a hold of between 10-15 k.
The Lib Dem / Green tie up is a gift to the Tories as far as persuading BXP supporters over. If they can get them free, not much point in striking a deal.