It's terrible. One of those that gets worse rather than better with context and sober consideration.
JRM isn't going to lose the Tories a single vote amongst those who actually vote Conservative, as opposed to those who pretend to.
I was thinking this, amazed it's still in the news. A lot of people will quietly agree with Mogg and if any Tories are appalled are they going to vote lib dem or bxp instead? Of course not. Compare this with the anti Semitic candidate in Coventry who will actually lose Labour voters.
People won't agree with Rees-Mogg, but they might wonder why, out of all of the horrible, needless, tragic deaths out there (and there are many) the Grenfell deaths have been somehow given a quasi religious significance.
A significance that is such that any mention of them that isn;t in hushed reverential, penitent tones is a kind of blasphemy.
Because the narrative is heartless Tory bastards living in the wealthiest borough in the country leaving the poor and helpless to die because they don't matter.
No that's not my point. Labour have increased 4% since May. Now, okay, that 'might' be MoE.
But supposing it isn't? Supposing in fact that Labour hit the bottom a few months ago and they're starting to pick up? That, I would suggest, has been more-than-hinted at by some recent polling.
Clutching at straws? Perhaps. Perhaps not.
They picked up by 4 while the Tories rose by 6. Doh!
I'm soooo looking forward to the end of the Phoney War tomorrow Nice short campaign this time too, to cut down on the potential for a shift in, er, momentum / Momentum.
It's terrible. One of those that gets worse rather than better with context and sober consideration.
JRM isn't going to lose the Tories a single vote amongst those who actually vote Conservative, as opposed to those who pretend to.
I was thinking this, amazed it's still in the news. A lot of people will quietly agree with Mogg and if any Tories are appalled are they going to vote lib dem or bxp instead? Of course not. Compare this with the anti Semitic candidate in Coventry who will actually lose Labour voters.
People won't agree with Rees-Mogg, but they might wonder why, out of all of the horrible, needless, tragic deaths out there (and there are many) the Grenfell deaths have been somehow given a quasi religious significance.
A significance that is such that any mention of them that isn;t in hushed reverential, penitent tones is a kind of blasphemy.
Their final moments will have been particularly unpleasant; the nature of their death catches the imagination, and not in a good way. And it is a totemic event; the situation in the US with 9/11 victims is not dissimilar, as victims of smaller scale outrages go forgotten.
Net gains for Con in Lab's (supposedly) strongest area in the whole country indicates Jezza is in big, big trouble in this election, IMO.
I had coffee with an old friend this morning
He was the most ardent Remainer I know (my source on the French government’s tactics and views).
He’s come to the conclusion that Brexit needs to happen and hence will vote for Boris
(Just for @Beibheirli_C , he is the leading light of Somerset’s Old Family - it looks like the Families are unifying behind a position at last)
My family is as old as yours is Charles. We both have bloodlines and DNA that stretch back to the beginning of life on Earth (or else we would not be here)
Mine is simple and traceable back to about 1600, sheep farmers from Cumbria through and through only broken in the early 1900s when some moved to Liverpool.
But I am sure you don't want to talk about that.
No problem Kirkby Steven is a beautiful place
Indeed. When we were newly married we had a great tour across Yorkshire staying in various pubs on a B&B basis enjoying the local ales and we were there (although I think it is Kirkby Stephen). Hopefully those that went to Liverpool had the sense to come back.
It's terrible. One of those that gets worse rather than better with context and sober consideration.
JRM isn't going to lose the Tories a single vote amongst those who actually vote Conservative, as opposed to those who pretend to.
I was thinking this, amazed it's still in the news. A lot of people will quietly agree with Mogg and if any Tories are appalled are they going to vote lib dem or bxp instead? Of course not. Compare this with the anti Semitic candidate in Coventry who will actually lose Labour voters.
People won't agree with Rees-Mogg, but they might wonder why, out of all of the horrible, needless, tragic deaths out there (and there are many) the Grenfell deaths have been somehow given a quasi religious significance.
A significance that is such that any mention of them that isn;t in hushed reverential, penitent tones is a kind of blasphemy.
Because the narrative is heartless Tory bastards living in the wealthiest borough in the country leaving the poor and helpless to die because they don't matter.
Real-world Coral offered me 5/6 on LD under 40.5 seats.
To get to 41 they'd need all 22 of their holds (including 10 defectors) and every target up to Bermondsey (11% swing). I think they'll get Bermondsey, but they won't get 40 others. They'd need 25%+ or some serious tac votes.
What’s so depressing about that CV is that it’s yet another MP who’s done wonk > speechwriter > journalist > wonk > SPAD.
Where are the people who’ve worked in business and industry?
As someone who previously worked in senior industrial management and have run two successful small businesses myself, I think one issue is that you start at the bottom if you switch into politics - you are used to taking difficlut decisions, weighing up potential and risk, and so on, and suddenly nobody really wants your opinion, let alone your decisions. It's like switching from running a business to volunteering at the CAB - it's a worthy thing to do, but if you enjoyed decision-making you do miss it. It's only 10-15 years later if you make it to Minister of State level that you get comparable authority. Most businesspeople can't be bothered.
I think that's an interesting point, and it rings true. It's for the same reason you quickly find who is and is not likely to stick it out as a lcoal councillor for more than a term, as parties often don't seem to advise candidates of what the position really entails, and working amidst the bureacracy of local government is not going to be for everyone, especially when in leader and cabinet models, in cleare majority areas, the non Cabinet members may have very little decision making power.
Although councillors have more opportunity to influence and change things, if on a very small scale, than backbench MPs, who are glorified letter boxes for correspondence.
Oh that can indeed be so, and they are more able to and appropriate to help people with issues many take to their MPs, it can be very rewarding work, including for some who have been very high powered individuals in many fields. But I think they discover pretty quickly if it is work they will be interested in.
Honestly there's a huge lack of media discipline from the Tories. Who the fuck thought it was a good idea to let JRM and Bridgen on TV? Where's Lynton Crosby?!
It's terrible. One of those that gets worse rather than better with context and sober consideration.
JRM isn't going to lose the Tories a single vote amongst those who actually vote Conservative, as opposed to those who pretend to.
I was thinking this, amazed it's still in the news. A lot of people will quietly agree with Mogg and if any Tories are appalled are they going to vote lib dem or bxp instead? Of course not. Compare this with the anti Semitic candidate in Coventry who will actually lose Labour voters.
People won't agree with Rees-Mogg, but they might wonder why, out of all of the horrible, needless, tragic deaths out there (and there are many) the Grenfell deaths have been somehow given a quasi religious significance.
A significance that is such that any mention of them that isn;t in hushed reverential, penitent tones is a kind of blasphemy.
Because the narrative is heartless Tory bastards living in the wealthiest borough in the country leaving the poor and helpless to die because they don't matter.
Leaving aside the fuckwittery of Rees Mogg aside, what he said is actually an extremely dangerous position for a minister of the crown to take. In all sorts of areas we the General public rely implicitly on the advice given by the experts in the emergency or the public sector and often their safety and security depends on people listening to that advice and following it.
The Grenfell residents were clearly let down badly by following the advice, but even there it seems likely that the general advice was and is sound, is was the failure to change the advice in the terrible circumstances of the fire that was most to blame. For a Govt minister to, in effect, say that you should use ‘common sense’ and replace official advice with your own thoughts is incredibly dangerous, and has the potential to cause far more damage in the long run if people learn the “lessons” he is extolling.
He should resign.
Completely agree. It combined being stupid, insulting to innocent victims and dangerous.
What is dangerous is being so beholden to officialdom that you stay in a burning building against every human instinct and your own better judgement. The state doesn't always have the answers, and there are times when this becomes tragically obvious.
Easy to say with hindsight. But a lot of people climbing down dark stairs possibly overcome with smoke inhalation, leaving doors open, might well have turned into another sort of tragedy. It is really difficult to know what to do when you have very incomplete information and have no idea what rescue attempts are being made and when your own actions may make things worse for rescuers.
The focus on what JRM has said has obscured the criticisms being made of the Fire Brigade’s failure to have a plan for this sort of fire and for having rigidly stuck to its initial advice long past the time when this stopped being sensible. The leadership of the Fire Brigade should not be let off the hook on this as a result of one politician’s ill-considered comments.
Stupid to say with hindsight or without. The choice wasn't stay in/leave a burning building, it was stay in this part of a burning building or go to another part of it witn a view to eventually leaving. And people don't obey firemen because they are part of officialdom or of the state, they obey them because they presumably know more about how fires behave in high rise buildings than people who are not firemen.
Honestly there's a huge lack of media discipline from the Tories. Who the fuck thought it was a good idea to let JRM and Bridgen on TV? Where's Lynton Crosby?!
JRM is a Cabinet Minister and therefore, unfortunately, in a position of authority and trust, it makes sense they let him out and about in that respect. But why has Bridgen not had his phone taken away so he cannot agree to interviews or media pieces, and told not to leave his constituency?
It's terrible. One of those that gets worse rather than better with context and sober consideration.
JRM isn't going to lose the Tories a single vote amongst those who actually vote Conservative, as opposed to those who pretend to.
I was thinking this, amazed it's still in the news. A lot of people will quietly agree with Mogg and if any Tories are appalled are they going to vote lib dem or bxp instead? Of course not. Compare this with the anti Semitic candidate in Coventry who will actually lose Labour voters.
JRM was accused of antisemitism recently over his Soros remarks. I don't think he is antisemitic but it was amusing to watch his defenders jump through hoops to clear him of the same sort of thing they condemn Labour for.
When Tory’s way out in front under Thatcher, Labour way out in front under Blair, I always felt media back the underdog. Things led news that really shouldn’t. Even suspecting Daily Mail are journo’s first and foremost, given a “boris bonked me and kept me in tax payer funded luxury” scoop tomorrow they would print it.
Certainly this whole election feels different last couple of days. Bizarrely I think the nations up for a winter election. Maybe like how TV viewing is up in winter without summer distractions people got more time to get into it. Even this early in it we can all agree, this certainly isn’t going to be a brexit election, or Parliament v people election?
Honestly there's a huge lack of media discipline from the Tories. Who the fuck thought it was a good idea to let JRM and Bridgen on TV? Where's Lynton Crosby?!
It doesn't matter if anyone thought it a good idea or not.
Because some politicians are addicted to media controversy.
It's terrible. One of those that gets worse rather than better with context and sober consideration.
JRM isn't going to lose the Tories a single vote amongst those who actually vote Conservative, as opposed to those who pretend to.
I was thinking this, amazed it's still in the news. A lot of people will quietly agree with Mogg and if any Tories are appalled are they going to vote lib dem or bxp instead? Of course not. Compare this with the anti Semitic candidate in Coventry who will actually lose Labour voters.
People won't agree with Rees-Mogg, but they might wonder why, out of all of the horrible, needless, tragic deaths out there (and there are many) the Grenfell deaths have been somehow given a quasi religious significance.
A significance that is such that any mention of them that isn;t in hushed reverential, penitent tones is a kind of blasphemy.
Because the narrative is heartless Tory bastards living in the wealthiest borough in the country leaving the poor and helpless to die because they don't matter.
Is why.
Is that not kinda obvious?
He/she asked.
True. And it highlights other problems. 39 dead illegal immigrants in a lorry. Children washed up dead on beaches in the Med. I think it is important to acknowledge the terrible human cost of some policies that instinctively feel right. To do otherwise is inhuman.
That Bridgen interview is extraordinary. The deference he shows to Rees Moog boils down to the cringe so many Brits have when confronted with a crisp, home counties accent. The assumption that well-spoken equals smart has caused the UK so much trouble over the years and continues to do so.
That Rees Mogg thing gets worse the more you think about it.
You have bad gaffes and crank candidates in every election. In fact, it’s almost a statistical certainty.
I think the material impact is negligible unless very heavily concentrated in one party and part of a broader narrative.
Socialism presses some of the same buttons as nationalism about belonging and community.
A lot of voting is visceral not logical.
I've been a very successful capitalist....but, my outlook is just different...alyways has been...I drive a knackered car, and hate materialism......I don't think I'll change now....but accumulating wealth has never been a problem for me
The Grenfell residents were clearly let down badly by following the advice, but even there it seems likely that the general advice was and is sound, is was the failure to change the advice in the terrible circumstances of the fire that was most to blame.
He should resign.
Completely agree. It combined being stupid, insulting to innocent victims and dangerous.
What is dangerous is being so beholden to officialdom that you stay in a burning building against every human instinct and your own better judgement. The state doesn't always have the answers, and there are times when this becomes tragically obvious.
Easy to say with hindsight. But a lot of people climbing down dark stairs possibly overcome with smoke inhalation, leaving doors open, might well have turned into another sort of tragedy. It is really difficult to know what to do when you have very incomplete information and have no idea what rescue attempts are being made and when your own actions may make things worse for rescuers.
The focus on what JRM has said has obscured the criticisms being made of the Fire Brigade’s failure to have a plan for this sort of fire and for having rigidly stuck to its initial advice long past the time when this stopped being sensible. The leadership of the Fire Brigade should not be let off the hook on this as a result of one politician’s ill-considered comments.
I agree that it's really difficult, and I can only thank God I've never been placed in that situation, however, ultimately, as well as state agencies being better prepared, it's to be hoped that we all develop our 'survival senses' (common sense is a better way of saying it but clearly gives people an attack of the vapours). We cannot subcontract responsibility for our health and safety to the state - to do so is dangerous.
When you are in such a situation, panic often sets in and it is not at all obvious what the best “survival” step to take is. That is why it is so important to have effective police/fire/health professionals who are properly trained - above all not to panic.
In this case, staying in the flats was the wrong thing to do. In other cases, it might well be the most sensible thing to do. I don’t think you can draw some general lesson - either about trusting or not the state. Look at the police advice about a terror attack which has changed from staying put and hiding to running away. And yet - depending on the circumstances - both of those pieces of advice could be the most common-sense thing to do (remember our own @BJO hiding in his bathroom in Tunisia a few years back) or the most stupid.
What’s so depressing about that CV is that it’s yet another MP who’s done wonk > speechwriter > journalist > wonk > SPAD.
Where are the people who’ve worked in business and industry?
As someone who previously worked in senior industrial management and have run two successful small businesses myself, I think one issue is that you start at the bottom if you switch into politics - you are used to taking difficlut decisions, weighing up potential and risk, and so on, and suddenly nobody really wants your opinion, let alone your decisions. It's like switching from running a business to volunteering at the CAB - it's a worthy thing to do, but if you enjoyed decision-making you do miss it. It's only 10-15 years later if you make it to Minister of State level that you get comparable authority. Most businesspeople can't be bothered.
That assumes you get off on authority and decision-making.
A close relative of mine took up LOCAL politics as a sideline to running her own reasonably successful small business, after reasonably senior jobs in midranking global megacorps.
It's started consuming her. Real local problems, where a modest amount of understanding the constituent's problem, the reason officials are doing what they're doing and the reason the local politicians are doing what they're doing can transform someone's misery into a sane result for all concerned. And, slowly, turn her own party into the likely front runner in Authorities where they were a minor player a decade ago (start in one tier of Authority and you find yourself pushed to spread to the other three)
One of the reasons she's clearly making a contribution is that - as most businesspeople purport to be true of them too - she's found herself more motivated by seeing results than by the chimera of "taking decisions". In local politics, if you've got reasonable social skills, views conventional thinking sees as hostile are just different perspectives on a messy situation. Force, however subtly, your colleagues to confront that and there's huge satisfaction in getting a result. You don't "take decisions" because you've got no authority. The challenge is to be effective without formal authority.
The real reason businesspeople look down on politics is a combination of greed and arrogance. It's easy to condemn Johnson for his "Fuck business" nonsense: but I've hardly ever, in 45 years in business, found a businessperson who didn't think themselves entitled to express, without shame, "Fuck politicians" bigotry.
My mum is neither male nor pale, she says she can't stand Swinson.
What name does she post under on here Sunil?
Byronic...
No. Sunil's mum posts as "@Sunil", Sunil posts as @rcs1000, rcs1000 posts as @TOPPING , Topping posts as @SeanT, and SeanT is Sunil's mum IRL. It all makes perfect sense.
No. I am Sunilsmumacus.
Who am I? I've lost track.
You are @Ave_it on alternate Thursdays. You have to stock the exclamation marks and keep the hyperbole watered. I'll send you the rota. DON'T PRESS THE RED BUTTON.
Reminds me of one of my favourite Pratchett quotes (in a crowded field) : "Some humans would do anything to see if it was possible to do it. If you put a large switch in some cave somewhere, with a sign on it saying 'End-of-the-World Switch. PLEASE DO NOT TOUCH', the paint wouldn't even have time to dry."
Recently my son did a physics exam which quoted "a famous science fiction writer" who said, "in the beginning there was nothing. Which exploded. Explain". Not sure if he got an extra mark for pointing out it was Pratchett.
I am going thru my bookshelves and trying to clear it up (a hopeless endevor, since I buy them faster than I can give them away). I'm genuinely Thinking of throwing the Pratchetts: not that I want rid, I just figure they'll never be out of print so I can rebuy on demand.
It's terrible. One of those that gets worse rather than better with context and sober consideration.
JRM isn't going to lose the Tories a single vote amongst those who actually vote Conservative, as opposed to those who pretend to.
I was thinking this, amazed it's still in the news. A lot of people will quietly agree with Mogg and if any Tories are appalled are they going to vote lib dem or bxp instead? Of course not. Compare this with the anti Semitic candidate in Coventry who will actually lose Labour voters.
People won't agree with Rees-Mogg, but they might wonder why, out of all of the horrible, needless, tragic deaths out there (and there are many) the Grenfell deaths have been somehow given a quasi religious significance.
A significance that is such that any mention of them that isn;t in hushed reverential, penitent tones is a kind of blasphemy.
Because the narrative is heartless Tory bastards living in the wealthiest borough in the country leaving the poor and helpless to die because they don't matter.
Is why.
Do they have a volunteer fire service comprised of wealthy bastards then?
I would say this sort of polling was relevant if Corbyns ratings were due to labour’s anti semitism under his watch. But I suspect it’s low because he’s crap. And during elections turds can be polished.
But that is yougov 4 nov. Let’s keep an eye on that one for movement in the coming weeks. If the polishing of the turd can’t close that gap it helps this betting site call it before the result?
What’s so depressing about that CV is that it’s yet another MP who’s done wonk > speechwriter > journalist > wonk > SPAD.
Where are the people who’ve worked in business and industry?
As someone who previously worked in senior industrial management and have run two successful small businesses myself, I think one issue is that you start at the bottom if you switch into politics - you are used to taking difficlut decisions, weighing up potential and risk, and so on, and suddenly nobody really wants your opinion, let alone your decisions. It's like switching from running a business to volunteering at the CAB - it's a worthy thing to do, but if you enjoyed decision-making you do miss it. It's only 10-15 years later if you make it to Minister of State level that you get comparable authority. Most businesspeople can't be bothered.
That assumes you get off on authority and decision-making.
A close relative of mine took up LOCAL politics as a sideline to running her own reasonably successful small business, after reasonably senior jobs in midranking global megacorps.
It's started consuming her. Real local problems, where a modest amount of understanding the constituent's problem, the reason officials are doing what they're doing and the reason the local politicians are doing what they're doing can transform someone's misery into a sane result for all concerned. And, slowly, turn her own party into the likely front runner in Authorities where they were a minor player a decade ago (start in one tier of Authority and you find yourself pushed to spread to the other three)
One of the reasons she's clearly making a contribution is that - as most businesspeople purport to be true of them too - she's found herself more motivated by seeing results than by the chimera of "taking decisions". In local politics, if you've got reasonable social skills, views conventional thinking sees as hostile are just different perspectives on a messy situation. Force, however subtly, your colleagues to confront that and there's huge satisfaction in getting a result. You don't "take decisions" because you've got no authority. The challenge is to be effective without formal authority.
The real reason businesspeople look down on politics is a combination of greed and arrogance. It's easy to condemn Johnson for his "Fuck business" nonsense: but I've hardly ever, in 45 years in business, found a businessperson who didn't think themselves entitled to express, without shame, "Fuck politicians" bigotry.
Local politics may be a different beast than national politics though. As an experiencer of both I'd be interested in Dr Palmer's take on the differences.
Real-world Coral offered me 5/6 on LD under 40.5 seats.
To get to 41 they'd need all 22 of their holds (including 10 defectors) and every target up to Bermondsey (11% swing). I think they'll get Bermondsey, but they won't get 40 others. They'd need 25%+ or some serious tac votes.
Anyway, I'm on.
Lib dems start on 12, they will lose 2 they then need to gain 30 to get to 40. I can see 20/23 gains at the moment ignore the defectors. They will do well but how you define well is important. Standing still or going backward is poor, five to ten gains is reasonable thirty is excellent. It’s far too early to make predictions but if you want to risk a fiver look at Yeovil asa long shot lib dem gain.
I'm soooo looking forward to the end of the Phoney War tomorrow Nice short campaign this time too, to cut down on the potential for a shift in, er, momentum / Momentum.
Wasn’t that when the maginot line collapsed (by being outflanked)?
Leaving aside the fuckwittery of Rees Mogg aside, what he said is actually an extremely dangerous position for a minister of the crown to take. In all sorts of areas we the General public rely implicitly on the advice given by the experts in the emergency or the public sector and often their safety and security depends on people listening to that advice and following it.
The Grenfell residents were clearly let down badly by following the advice, but even there it seems likely that the general advice was and is sound, is was the failure to change the advice in the terrible circumstances of the fire that was most to blame. For a Govt minister to, in effect, say that you should use ‘common sense’ and replace official advice with your own thoughts is incredibly dangerous, and has the potential to cause far more damage in the long run if people learn the “lessons” he is extolling.
He should resign.
Completely agree. It combined being stupid, insulting to innocent victims and dangerous.
What is dangerous is being so beholden to officialdom that you stay in a burning building against every human instinct and your own better judgement. The state doesn't always have the answers, and there are times when this becomes tragically obvious.
Easy to say with hindsight. But a lot of people climbing down dark stairs possibly overcome with smoke inhalation, leaving doors open, might well have turned into another sort of tragedy. It is really difficult to know what to do when you have very incomplete information and have no idea what rescue attempts are being made and when your own actions may make things worse for rescuers.
The focus on what JRM has said has obscured the criticisms being made of the Fire Brigade’s failure to have a plan for this sort of fire and for having rigidly stuck to its initial advice long past the time when this stopped being sensible. The leadership of the Fire Brigade should not be let off the hook on this as a result of one politician’s ill-considered comments.
Is what JRM said any better or worse than Doreen Lawrence calling the LFB racist.
Andrew Bridgen's wonderful defence of JRM was something to behold on tonight's PM. As a witness for the defence he wasn't remotely effective, unless the whole point of the interview was to prove there are worse people out there than JRM, to that end Bridgen was wholly successful.
Leaving aside the fuckwittery of Rees Mogg aside, what he said is actually an extremely dangerous position for a minister of the crown to take. In all sorts of areas we the General public rely implicitly on the advice given by the experts in the emergency or the public sector and often their safety and security depends on people listening to that advice and following it.
The Grenfell residents were clearly let down badly by following the advice, but even there it seems likely that the general advice was and is sound, is was the failure to change the advice in the terrible circumstances of the fire that was most to blame. For a Govt minister to, in effect, say that you should use ‘common sense’ and replace official advice with your own thoughts is incredibly dangerous, and has the potential to cause far more damage in the long run if people learn the “lessons” he is extolling.
He should resign.
Completely agree. It combined being stupid, insulting to innocent victims and dangerous.
What is dangerous is being so beholden to officialdom that you stay in a burning building against every human instinct and your own better judgement. The state doesn't always have the answers, and there are times when this becomes tragically obvious.
Easy to say with hindsight. But a lot of people climbing down dark stairs possibly overcome with smoke inhalation, leaving doors open, might well have turned into another sort of tragedy. It is really difficult to know what to do when you have very incomplete information and have no idea what rescue attempts are being made and when your own actions may make things worse for rescuers.
The focus on what JRM has said has obscured the criticisms being made of the Fire Brigade’s failure to have a plan for this sort of fire and for having rigidly stuck to its initial advice long past the time when this stopped being sensible. The leadership of the Fire Brigade should not be let off the hook on this as a result of one politician’s ill-considered comments.
Is what JRM said any better or worse than Doreen Lawrence calling the LFB racist.
She was completely out of order saying that. And was pretty smartly criticised on Twitter (I know!) for doing so.
Honestly there's a huge lack of media discipline from the Tories. Who the fuck thought it was a good idea to let JRM and Bridgen on TV? Where's Lynton Crosby?!
JRM was actually on LBC yesterday (Monday) morning when he made these comments.
Oddly no one really mentioned it at the time (or for much of yesterday) and even the LBC presenter Nick Ferrari didn't pick him up on what he said.
Honestly there's a huge lack of media discipline from the Tories. Who the fuck thought it was a good idea to let JRM and Bridgen on TV? Where's Lynton Crosby?!
He's not running the campaign.
A mix of Dom Cummings and Isaac Levido are running the campaign, the latter is a protégé of Sir Lynton.
My mum is neither male nor pale, she says she can't stand Swinson.
What name does she post under on here Sunil?
Byronic...
No. Sunil's mum posts as "@Sunil", Sunil posts as @rcs1000, rcs1000 posts as @TOPPING , Topping posts as @SeanT, and SeanT is Sunil's mum IRL. It all makes perfect sense.
No. I am Sunilsmumacus.
Who am I? I've lost track.
You are @Ave_it on alternate Thursdays. You have to stock the exclamation marks and keep the hyperbole watered. I'll send you the rota. DON'T PRESS THE RED BUTTON.
Reminds me of one of my favourite Pratchett quotes (in a crowded field) : "Some humans would do anything to see if it was possible to do it. If you put a large switch in some cave somewhere, with a sign on it saying 'End-of-the-World Switch. PLEASE DO NOT TOUCH', the paint wouldn't even have time to dry."
Recently my son did a physics exam which quoted "a famous science fiction writer" who said, "in the beginning there was nothing. Which exploded. Explain". Not sure if he got an extra mark for pointing out it was Pratchett.
I am going thru my bookshelves and trying to clear it up (a hopeless endevor, since I buy them faster than I can give them away). I'm genuinely Thinking of throwing the Pratchetts: not that I want rid, I just figure they'll never be out of print so I can rebuy on demand.
Sacrilege. Whenever I am feeling down I retreat to a bath with one, often Thief of Time or Maskerade, and amuse the rest of my family with hoots of laughter despite reading them so many times before.
What an idiot. No deal is just stupidity of the highest order.
He’s one of our most valued posters
The two points are not contradictory
Promising to back no deal as a backup should be an easier prospect for people now since they know if the Tories have a majority Boris does have a deal to pass. The chance of needing to deliver on that promise are much less than, say, early September.
My mum is neither male nor pale, she says she can't stand Swinson.
What name does she post under on here Sunil?
Byronic...
No. Sunil's mum posts as "@Sunil", Sunil posts as @rcs1000, rcs1000 posts as @TOPPING , Topping posts as @SeanT, and SeanT is Sunil's mum IRL. It all makes perfect sense.
No. I am Sunilsmumacus.
Who am I? I've lost track.
You are @Ave_it on alternate Thursdays. You have to stock the exclamation marks and keep the hyperbole watered. I'll send you the rota. DON'T PRESS THE RED BUTTON.
Remi
I am gmand.
Sacrilege. Whenever I am feeling down I retreat to a bath with one, often Thief of Time or Maskerade, and amuse the rest of my family with hoots of laughter despite reading them so many times before.
Hear hear. There's so many to choose from as well, so while they are not all great, you'll never run short of great ones to try. One of the all time greats. (Going Postal or Feet of Clay among my favourites)
I'm very nervous about the proposed TV adaption, not to any particular book, but on 'The Watch' generally.
Honestly there's a huge lack of media discipline from the Tories. Who the fuck thought it was a good idea to let JRM and Bridgen on TV? Where's Lynton Crosby?!
JRM is a Cabinet Minister and therefore, unfortunately, in a position of authority and trust, it makes sense they let him out and about in that respect. But why has Bridgen not had his phone taken away so he cannot agree to interviews or media pieces, and told not to leave his constituency?
It is good that we hear plenty from Bridgen and Francois in this election, after all they are the fuckwits that we are going to have in government for the next 4 years.
Real-world Coral offered me 5/6 on LD under 40.5 seats.
To get to 41 they'd need all 22 of their holds (including 10 defectors) and every target up to Bermondsey (11% swing). I think they'll get Bermondsey, but they won't get 40 others. They'd need 25%+ or some serious tac votes.
Anyway, I'm on.
Lib dems start on 12, they will lose 2 they then need to gain 30 to get to 40. I can see 20/23 gains at the moment ignore the defectors. They will do well but how you define well is important. Standing still or going backward is poor, five to ten gains is reasonable thirty is excellent. It’s far too early to make predictions but if you want to risk a fiver look at Yeovil asa long shot lib dem gain.
I wonder how much resource they'll put in to defending the new recruit's seats? MPs like Ummuna give them some benefit beyond an average new MP, but would that benefit be greater than getting two average new MPs? (I think no)
Must be quite an interesting thing to be involved in deciding these balances.
Sacrilege. Whenever I am feeling down I retreat to a bath with one, often Thief of Time or Maskerade, and amuse the rest of my family with hoots of laughter despite reading them so many times before.
Excellent choices, but Hogfather deserves a mention as does Moving Pictures and I will never tire of Mort (y)
Andrew Bridgen's wonderful defence of JRM was something to behold on tonight's PM. As a witness for the defence he wasn't remotely effective, unless the whole point of the interview was to prove there are worse people out there than JRM, to that end Bridgen was wholly successful.
Yes, while I think one can construe JRM's remarks as a Freudian slip which showed a dodgy way of thinking but was not intended to be offensivel, Budgen is quite unequivocally indicating that he thinks JRM's remarks show him to be a cleverer man than the victims. Ugh.
My mum is neither male nor pale, she says she can't stand Swinson.
What name does she post under on here Sunil?
Byronic...
No. Sunil's mum posts as "@Sunil", Sunil posts as @rcs1000, rcs1000 posts as @TOPPING , Topping posts as @SeanT, and SeanT is Sunil's mum IRL. It all makes perfect sense.
No. I am Sunilsmumacus.
Who am I? I've lost track.
You are @Ave_it on alternate Thursdays. You have to stock the exclamation marks and keep the hyperbole watered. I'll send you the rota. DON'T PRESS THE RED BUTTON.
Reminds me of one of my favourite Pratchett quotes (in a crowded field) : "Some humans would do anything to see if it was possible to do it. If you put a large switch in some cave somewhere, with a sign on it saying 'End-of-the-World Switch. PLEASE DO NOT TOUCH', the paint wouldn't even have time to dry."
Recently my son did a physics exam which quoted "a famous science fiction writer" who said, "in the beginning there was nothing. Which exploded. Explain". Not sure if he got an extra mark for pointing out it was Pratchett.
I am going thru my bookshelves and trying to clear it up (a hopeless endevor, since I buy them faster than I can give them away). I'm genuinely Thinking of throwing the Pratchetts: not that I want rid, I just figure they'll never be out of print so I can rebuy on demand.
Sacrilege. Whenever I am feeling down I retreat to a bath with one, often Thief of Time or Maskerade, and amuse the rest of my family with hoots of laughter despite reading them so many times before.
I know, but they take up over two shelves on their own...
I would say this sort of polling was relevant if Corbyns ratings were due to labour’s anti semitism under his watch. But I suspect it’s low because he’s crap. And during elections turds can be polished.
But that is yougov 4 nov. Let’s keep an eye on that one for movement in the coming weeks. If the polishing of the turd can’t close that gap it helps this betting site call it before the result?
I think labour in Wales is tired and presides over failing NHS and education amongst other things
I really do not see much changing in the next month
In the end Corbyn may well see a poor GE result, but above all else he may well have facilitated brexit more than any other opposition politician, and on the way devastated the moderate sensible labour party that won three elections
Sacrilege. Whenever I am feeling down I retreat to a bath with one, often Thief of Time or Maskerade, and amuse the rest of my family with hoots of laughter despite reading them so many times before.
Excellent choices, but Hogfather deserves a mention as does Moving Pictures and I will never tire of Mort (y)
Susan is one of my absolute favourite Pratchett characters. His ability to write strong, funny and humorous female characters was very rare in a man. Mort is BRILLIANT.
Same here. I shall miss Ken Clarke’s voice, in every sense.
I shall miss Ken Clarke and the Conservative Party will be poorer for his absence.
For anyone in London on 2 December you can see him being interviewed by Nick Robinson - tickets available on the Intelligence Squared website. I saw him during a Brexit debate earlier this year and he was very good value - and a charming man as well. I have a rather lovely photo someone took of us together.
Real-world Coral offered me 5/6 on LD under 40.5 seats.
To get to 41 they'd need all 22 of their holds (including 10 defectors) and every target up to Bermondsey (11% swing). I think they'll get Bermondsey, but they won't get 40 others. They'd need 25%+ or some serious tac votes.
Anyway, I'm on.
Oh, LibDem seats is the gift that keeps on giving.
Of the defectors, if absolutely everything went perfectly for them, they'd hold Torbay and South Cambs. Everything else is a certain loss
Real-world Coral offered me 5/6 on LD under 40.5 seats.
To get to 41 they'd need all 22 of their holds (including 10 defectors) and every target up to Bermondsey (11% swing). I think they'll get Bermondsey, but they won't get 40 others. They'd need 25%+ or some serious tac votes.
Anyway, I'm on.
Lib dems start on 12, they will lose 2 they then need to gain 30 to get to 40. I can see 20/23 gains at the moment ignore the defectors. They will do well but how you define well is important. Standing still or going backward is poor, five to ten gains is reasonable thirty is excellent. It’s far too early to make predictions but if you want to risk a fiver look at Yeovil asa long shot lib dem gain.
I wonder how much resource they'll put in to defending the new recruit's seats? MPs like Ummuna give them some benefit beyond an average new MP, but would that benefit be greater than getting two average new MPs? (I think no)
Must be quite an interesting thing to be involved in deciding these balances.
I’m too far removed to be in the know these days but Westminster and Finchley will get big support, geographically but not financial their may be support for Lee on the ground in Wokingham but beyond that I doubt it.it has always been a 50/50 election, 50 target and 50 development seats but combined with a better air war it should deliver a degree of recovery
My mum is neither male nor pale, she says she can't stand Swinson.
What name does she post under on here Sunil?
Byronic...
No. Sunil's mum posts as "@Sunil", Sunil posts as @rcs1000, rcs1000 posts as @TOPPING , Topping posts as @SeanT, and SeanT is Sunil's mum IRL. It all makes perfect sense.
No. I am Sunilsmumacus.
Who am I? I've lost track.
You are @Ave_it on alternate Thursdays. You have to stock the exclamation marks and keep the hyperbole watered. I'll send you the rota. DON'T PRESS THE RED BUTTON.
Reminds me of one of my favourite Pratchett quotes (in a crowded field) : "Some humans would do anything to see if it was possible to do it. If you put a large switch in some cave somewhere, with a sign on it saying 'End-of-the-World Switch. PLEASE DO NOT TOUCH', the paint wouldn't even have time to dry."
Recently my son did a physics exam which quoted "a famous science fiction writer" who said, "in the beginning there was nothing. Which exploded. Explain". Not sure if he got an extra mark for pointing out it was Pratchett.
I am going thru my bookshelves and trying to clear it up (a hopeless endevor, since I buy them faster than I can give them away). I'm genuinely Thinking of throwing the Pratchetts: not that I want rid, I just figure they'll never be out of print so I can rebuy on demand.
Sacrilege. Whenever I am feeling down I retreat to a bath with one, often Thief of Time or Maskerade, and amuse the rest of my family with hoots of laughter despite reading them so many times before.
I know, but they take up over two shelves on their own...
Have you considered suspending some shelving from the ceiling in order to make some space?
What an idiot. No deal is just stupidity of the highest order.
He’s one of our most valued posters
The two points are not contradictory
Promising to back no deal as a backup should be an easier prospect for people now since they know if the Tories have a majority Boris does have a deal to pass. The chance of needing to deliver on that promise are much less than, say, early September.
My mum is neither male nor pale, she says she can't stand Swinson.
What name does she post under on here Sunil?
Byronic...
No. Sunil's mum posts as "@Sunil", Sunil posts as @rcs1000, rcs1000 posts as @TOPPING , Topping posts as @SeanT, and SeanT is Sunil's mum IRL. It all makes perfect sense.
No. I am Sunilsmumacus.
Who am I? I've lost track.
You are @Ave_it on alternate Thursdays. You have to stock the exclamation marks and keep the hyperbole watered. I'll send you the rota. DON'T PRESS THE RED BUTTON.
Remi
I am gmand.
Sacrilege. Whenever I am feeling down I retreat to a bath with one, often Thief of Time or Maskerade, and amuse the rest of my family with hoots of laughter despite reading them so many times before.
Hear hear. There's so many to choose from as well, so while they are not all great, you'll never run short of great ones to try. One of the all time greats. (Going Postal or Feet of Clay among my favourites)
I'm very nervous about the proposed TV adaption, not to any particular book, but on 'The Watch' generally.
My mum is neither male nor pale, she says she can't stand Swinson.
What name does she post under on here Sunil?
Byronic...
No. Sunil's mum posts as "@Sunil", Sunil posts as @rcs1000, rcs1000 posts as @TOPPING , Topping posts as @SeanT, and SeanT is Sunil's mum IRL. It all makes perfect sense.
No. I am Sunilsmumacus.
Who am I? I've lost track.
You are @Ave_it on alternate Thursdays. You have to stock the exclamation marks and keep the hyperbole watered. I'll send you the rota. DON'T PRESS THE RED BUTTON.
Reminds me of one of my favourite Pratchett quotes (in a crowded field) : "Some humans would do anything to see if it was possible to do it. If you put a large switch in some cave somewhere, with a sign on it saying 'End-of-the-World Switch. PLEASE DO NOT TOUCH', the paint wouldn't even have time to dry."
Recently my son did a physics exam which quoted "a famous science fiction writer" who said, "in the beginning there was nothing. Which exploded. Explain". Not sure if he got an extra mark for pointing out it was Pratchett.
I am going thru my bookshelves and trying to clear it up (a hopeless endevor, since I buy them faster than I can give them away). I'm genuinely Thinking of throwing the Pratchetts: not that I want rid, I just figure they'll never be out of print so I can rebuy on demand.
Sacrilege. Whenever I am feeling down I retreat to a bath with one, often Thief of Time or Maskerade, and amuse the rest of my family with hoots of laughter despite reading them so many times before.
I know, but they take up over two shelves on their own...
That reminds me of when someone said to Joseph Heller that he had never written anything else as good as Catch 22. He replied: "Who has?"
What an idiot. No deal is just stupidity of the highest order.
He’s one of our most valued posters
The two points are not contradictory
Promising to back no deal as a backup should be an easier prospect for people now since they know if the Tories have a majority Boris does have a deal to pass. The chance of needing to deliver on that promise are much less than, say, early September.
My mum is neither male nor pale, she says she can't stand Swinson.
What name does she post under on here Sunil?
Byronic...
No. Sunil's mum posts as "@Sunil", Sunil posts as @rcs1000, rcs1000 posts as @TOPPING , Topping posts as @SeanT, and SeanT is Sunil's mum IRL. It all makes perfect sense.
No. I am Sunilsmumacus.
Who am I? I've lost track.
You are @Ave_it on alternate Thursdays. You have to stock the exclamation marks and keep the hyperbole watered. I'll send you the rota. DON'T PRESS THE RED BUTTON.
Remi
I am gmand.
Sacrilege. Whenever I am feeling down I retreat to a bath with one, often Thief of Time or Maskerade, and amuse the rest of my family with hoots of laughter despite reading them so many times before.
Hear hear. There's so many to choose from as well, so while they are not all great, you'll never run short of great ones to try. One of the all time greats. (Going Postal or Feet of Clay among my favourites)
I'm very nervous about the proposed TV adaption, not to any particular book, but on 'The Watch' generally.
Same here. I shall miss Ken Clarke’s voice, in every sense.
I shall miss Ken Clarke and the Conservative Party will be poorer for his absence.
For anyone in London on 2 December you can see him being interviewed by Nick Robinson - tickets available on the Intelligence Squared website. I saw him during a Brexit debate earlier this year and he was very good value - and a charming man as well. I have a rather lovely photo someone took of us together.
I have started to drink cappuccinos without chocolate actually. But I'm ashamed to say I still drink them at all times of the day.
Same here. I shall miss Ken Clarke’s voice, in every sense.
I shall miss Ken Clarke and the Conservative Party will be poorer for his absence.
For anyone in London on 2 December you can see him being interviewed by Nick Robinson - tickets available on the Intelligence Squared website. I saw him during a Brexit debate earlier this year and he was very good value - and a charming man as well. I have a rather lovely photo someone took of us together.
I have started to drink cappuccinos without chocolate actually. But I'm ashamed to say I still drink them at all times of the day.
Boris Johnson thinks the Tory Party is better off with Andrew Bridgen in the party and Ken Clarke out of it.
Not my party anymore.
Wheeling JRM and Bridgen out may just be an effective smokescreen by the Tories, in order for the BBC to miss Johnson's withholding the Russian election interference report story, or Alun Cairn's whopper about knowing nothing of Ross England's antics until last month.
Local politics may be a different beast than national politics though. As an experiencer of both I'd be interested in Dr Palmer's take on the differences.
It's very different. For a start, you potentially can get much more easily into decision-making - I'd been a councillor for one day when I was invited onto the executive; contrast with 13 years in Parliament doing various PPS and select committee positions. Secondly, the honest truth is that local government is largely non-partisan if it's done properly - not only have I yet to have a serious disagreement with the LibDems after 6 months, I haven't had one with the Tories either. We're all just discussing what needs to be done in a civilised way, with the occasional token joust. I've heard that not all councils are like that, though Broxtowe was pretty similar in tone.
On the other hand, what you're doing naturally affects far fewer people and your powers to do anything that changes lives for the better are strictly limited and constrained by Government. I hope to help improve the availability of low-cost housing; make the borough greener; improve local transport and parking and er that's about it. Also, although it's paid at the level of a part-time job, to do it well you'd ideally do it full time, and most of the councillors are indeed retired. Because I have a day job, I feel guilty that I'm not spending 8 hours a day on the council work, as I'm quite sure i could do more if I had more time. I think it's a really good retirement job, though, if you want to "give something back".
When you are in such a situation, panic often sets in and it is not at all obvious what the best “survival” step to take is. That is why it is so important to have effective police/fire/health professionals who are properly trained - above all not to panic.
In this case, staying in the flats was the wrong thing to do. In other cases, it might well be the most sensible thing to do. I don’t think you can draw some general lesson - either about trusting or not the state. Look at the police advice about a terror attack which has changed from staying put and hiding to running away. And yet - depending on the circumstances - both of those pieces of advice could be the most common-sense thing to do (remember our own @BJO hiding in his bathroom in Tunisia a few years back) or the most stupid.
It seems to me that is a strong argument in favour of being able to make an informed but independent decision in real time.
I took part in a terrorism workshop with police as part of a compulsory health and safety training day. It was good, but I was slightly troubled that they did not mention that it was a bad idea, when you've successfully hidden and survived, to open the door when 'the police' anounce themselves, as this can be a technique used by mass killers to flush out more victims. So I asked the question, and the trainers vehemently confirmed that you should remain hidden until it is confirmed beyond doubt that it's the police. But it wouldn't have been mentioned in the session otherwise. Nobody is perfect and we need to inform ourselves.
Since we still seem to be commenting on JRM's Grenfell remarks, I think people have lost sight of the fact that the Fire Brigade advice was sound right up to the point where the building was clad with flammable sheets. Staying put is fine in a building where fire cannot spread, and sensible to avoid stairwells filled with smoke. But the flats were invaded by fire spreading up the cladding and cracking the windows. Since the stairwell JRM seems to think would make a great escape route was dark and full of smoke and toxic fumes, there was no way out and no advice on earth could have saved them.
This storm in a teacup is just distracting from looking at the people who decided to clad the block with flammable sheets against the advice of the manufacturers. They made it into a fire trap no fire brigade could rescue people from.
The London figures are very interesting and the top line numbers hide a real collapse of Labour support in Inner London but they can afford that in constituencies like East Ham where Stephen Timms clings on by 39,883 votes.
The LDs and BP have candidates and I imagine Timms will be re-selected so we await the Conservative choice who I imagine will do very little in the constituency and will help in places like Ilford North perhaps.
Apart from 2005 when Respect polled 21% and came second, Stephen Timms has polled above 70% in every election since 2001 so that's a baseline for his support number.
The Conservatives have been second in every GE apart from 2005 but from 15-16% in 2010 they've eased back to 12-13%. The LDs polled 11% in 2010 but crashed to 1.2% finishing fourth, 41 votes behind UKIP.
I'd like to think the deposit can be saved and the share will be nearer 10% than 5%. BP won't do much and neither will the Greens who polled only 0.8% here last time.
Honestly there's a huge lack of media discipline from the Tories. Who the fuck thought it was a good idea to let JRM and Bridgen on TV? Where's Lynton Crosby?!
Absolutely. You decide who your media performers are and tell everyone else to knock on doors and not let a microphone within a mile of their gob. That's basic.
Surely it's time for Robert Mueller to investigate Russian meddling in our elections? It must be severe cos Thornberry was in full on tin foil hat conspiracy mode this afternoon
That assumes you get off on authority and decision-making.
A close relative of mine took up LOCAL politics as a sideline to running her own reasonably successful small business, after reasonably senior jobs in midranking global megacorps.
It's started consuming her. Real local problems, where a modest amount of understanding the constituent's problem, the reason officials are doing what they're doing and the reason the local politicians are doing what they're doing can transform someone's misery into a sane result for all concerned. And, slowly, turn her own party into the likely front runner in Authorities where they were a minor player a decade ago (start in one tier of Authority and you find yourself pushed to spread to the other three)
One of the reasons she's clearly making a contribution is that - as most businesspeople purport to be true of them too - she's found herself more motivated by seeing results than by the chimera of "taking decisions". In local politics, if you've got reasonable social skills, views conventional thinking sees as hostile are just different perspectives on a messy situation. Force, however subtly, your colleagues to confront that and there's huge satisfaction in getting a result. You don't "take decisions" because you've got no authority. The challenge is to be effective without formal authority.
The real reason businesspeople look down on politics is a combination of greed and arrogance. It's easy to condemn Johnson for his "Fuck business" nonsense: but I've hardly ever, in 45 years in business, found a businessperson who didn't think themselves entitled to express, without shame, "Fuck politicians" bigotry.
I do largely agree with you and your relative, though I think you are setting a false antithesis between "seeing results" and "taking decisions" - I don't see the latter as dubious megalomania, but simmply as a way to achieve the former.
I have never read any Terry Pratchett. Mind you, I don’t read much fiction generally. What genre are they?
Mostly comedic fantasy with Discworld, and with elements which are the written equivalent of slapstick (and you must love puns). Which puts off a lot of people right there, but without trying to be too pretentious about it, as Sir Terry would surely not approve, the very best of his stuff is thoughtful, tightly plotted and very witty, with great settings and characterisation, with some being adventure stories, some political thrillers, mystery novel, and some can get pretty deep and dark.
The great ones make me feel like they are saying something important, whilst still first and foremost just telling a great story in a funny way, rather than some award winning novel which sells itself on its deep philsophical insights. I much prefer feeling like I am gleaning insights from a book which is just trying to be funny, rather than go in expecting some deep message.
Night's Watch probably relies on knowing the backstory of the characters from earlier books a bit for some, but I'd rank it is a truly great novel - intense, moving and hilarious. Going Postal was great for newbies, or The Truth, both being almost standalone compared to earlier books.
Stephen Gethins and Pete Wishart are doomed right?
Stephen Gethins is surely doomed and I have bet accordingly at odds I feel Shadsy was unwise to offer.
Pete Wishart is where it gets insanely complicated/really simple. I currently don't feel like I can make a prognostic.
I can see SLAB voters ensuring it becomes an SNP hold.
There's multiple overlapping tactical vote considerations, plus trying to model what the fucking Lib Dem vote might do.
Looking at the history of the national LibDem vote in Scotland vs Constituency Lib Dem vote is infuriating.
Between 2015 and 2017 the Lib Dem lost 0.7 percentage points (about 10% of their remaing vote) yet in Constituencies that still had a strong LD vote (Like Ross Skye and Lochaber or West Aberdeenshire) that translated into a 15 point drop or some ridiculous shit like that.
Given the Lib Dems are now polling at double their 2017.vote how do you model that swing? My working theory is SCons are going to take a hammering in exactly the seats they cannot afford to lose votes in as natural LDs shot back from tactical Con votes to their regular home But WHO The FUCK Knows.
And thereby lies the problem, why then can not labour supporters see their problem?
Like the Abrahamic religions, Labour has a strong dose of "Us and Them". Questioning the Party is like doubting the Vatican - for many, it is simply beyond the pale.
The fervent Labour supporters I have met really do believe in their own righteousness.
I've never met a Labour Party member who didn't question the party, frankly. "Herding cats" is the phrase that sometimes comes to mind. I assume all parties are like that, no?
"For instance, the £250bn estimated cost of installing loft insulation, double glazing and renewable, low-carbon technologies in all the UK’s 27m homes – or an average of £9,300 per house – will come £60bn from the state to pay for the lowest income households, and the balance from the rest of us via interest-free government loans to be repaid out of the supposed savings we make on our energy bills.
Simples. Now why did no one think of that before?
Because it’s laughably unworkable in a free society, that’s why."
Actually, I am pretty sure it has been tried. There was some kind of green scheme a few years involving boilers, iirc, or possibly insulation, where the householder was loaned the money and paid back through saved energy bills.
I think about 300 people signed up across whole of UK.
Real-world Coral offered me 5/6 on LD under 40.5 seats.
To get to 41 they'd need all 22 of their holds (including 10 defectors) and every target up to Bermondsey (11% swing). I think they'll get Bermondsey, but they won't get 40 others. They'd need 25%+ or some serious tac votes.
Anyway, I'm on.
Lib dems start on 12, they will lose 2 they then need to gain 30 to get to 40. I can see 20/23 gains at the moment ignore the defectors. They will do well but how you define well is important. Standing still or going backward is poor, five to ten gains is reasonable thirty is excellent. It’s far too early to make predictions but if you want to risk a fiver look at Yeovil asa long shot lib dem gain.
I think it's far from certain they'll lose Norfolk North and Eastbourne.
My mum is neither male nor pale, she says she can't stand Swinson.
What name does she post under on here Sunil?
Byronic...
No. Sunil's mum posts as "@Sunil", Sunil posts as @rcs1000, rcs1000 posts as @TOPPING , Topping posts as @SeanT, and SeanT is Sunil's mum IRL. It all makes perfect sense.
No. I am Sunilsmumacus.
Who am I? I've lost track.
You are @Ave_it on alternate Thursdays. You have to stock the exclamation marks and keep the hyperbole watered. I'll send you the rota. DON'T PRESS THE RED BUTTON.
Reminds me of one of my favourite Pratchett quotes (in a crowded field) : "Some humans would do anything to see if it was possible to do it. If you put a large switch in some cave somewhere, with a sign on it saying 'End-of-the-World Switch. PLEASE DO NOT TOUCH', the paint wouldn't even have time to dry."
Recently my son did a physics exam which quoted "a famous science fiction writer" who said, "in the beginning there was nothing. Which exploded. Explain". Not sure if he got an extra mark for pointing out it was Pratchett.
I am going thru my bookshelves and trying to clear it up (a hopeless endevor, since I buy them faster than I can give them away). I'm genuinely Thinking of throwing the Pratchetts: not that I want rid, I just figure they'll never be out of print so I can rebuy on demand.
Sacrilege. Whenever I am feeling down I retreat to a bath with one, often Thief of Time or Maskerade, and amuse the rest of my family with hoots of laughter despite reading them so many times before.
I know, but they take up over two shelves on their own...
Have you considered suspending some shelving from the ceiling in order to make some space?
It's plasterboard suspended from the joists (crossbeams). It wouldn't bear the weight. I am thinking of putting up more cabinets in the kitchen and putting them in that, but ultimately I have to throw something out.
And thereby lies the problem, why then can not labour supporters see their problem?
Like the Abrahamic religions, Labour has a strong dose of "Us and Them". Questioning the Party is like doubting the Vatican - for many, it is simply beyond the pale.
The fervent Labour supporters I have met really do believe in their own righteousness.
I've never met a Labour Party member who didn't question the party, frankly. "Herding cats" is the phrase that sometimes comes to mind. I assume all parties are like that, no?
In my experience there are many examples where members of a party are more likely to question their party than supproters of a party. Certainly, as per your experience of local government cooperation, you can find the elected members far less partisan than every day supporters.
I think that's why there is such concern about members becoming more fanatically partisan in many parties, and enforcing that same attitude on those they choose to to stand for the party.
I would say this sort of polling was relevant if Corbyns ratings were due to labour’s anti semitism under his watch. But I suspect it’s low because he’s crap. And during elections turds can be polished.
But that is yougov 4 nov. Let’s keep an eye on that one for movement in the coming weeks. If the polishing of the turd can’t close that gap it helps this betting site call it before the result?
I think labour in Wales is tired and presides over failing NHS and education amongst other things
I really do not see much changing in the next month
In the end Corbyn may well see a poor GE result, but above all else he may well have facilitated brexit more than any other opposition politician, and on the way devastated the moderate sensible labour party that won three elections
I am not entirely convinced Boris is the man to sweep Labour from Wales. Anecdotally speaking the Boris/Trump/NHS story is even more of a concern than Betsi Cadwalladr's shortcomings.
Oh the hilarity some will have that Juncker will be an authority to be listened to now. But he is probably right, but the realism of the approach only needs to survive until December 12th. After that if it is not realistic then gosh darn it turns out Labour will have no choice but to campaign for Remain - how very different to what 90% of their members and 95% of their MPs were going to do anyway.
When you are in such a situation, panic often sets in and it is not at all obvious what the best “survival” step to take is. That is why it is so important to have effective police/fire/health professionals who are properly trained - above all not to panic.
In this case, staying in the flats was the wrong thing to do. In other cases, it might well be the most sensible thing to do. I don’t think you can draw some general lesson - either about trusting or not the state. Look at the police advice about a terror attack which has changed from staying put and hiding to running away. And yet - depending on the circumstances - both of those pieces of advice could be the most common-sense thing to do (remember our own @BJO hiding in his bathroom in Tunisia a few years back) or the most stupid.
It seems to me that is a strong argument in favour of being able to make an informed but independent decision in real time.
I took part in a terrorism workshop with police as part of a compulsory health and safety training day. It was good, but I was slightly troubled that they did not mention that it was a bad idea, when you've successfully hidden and survived, to open the door when 'the police' anounce themselves, as this can be a technique used by mass killers to flush out more victims. So I asked the question, and the trainers vehemently confirmed that you should remain hidden until it is confirmed beyond doubt that it's the police. But it wouldn't have been mentioned in the session otherwise. Nobody is perfect and we need to inform ourselves.
We had our major incident training on Monday, with the Manchester Arena bombing as the model. Some interesting insights from those on the ground there, but perhaps even more interesting was from an Orthopd who was at the hospital that received 2000 casualties after the Mumbai stock exchange bombing.
In all these incidents it is easy to be wise after the event, but in the uncertainty of an evolving situation confusion will reign.
Oh the hilarity some will have that Juncker will be an authority to be listened to now. But he is probably right, but the realism of the approach only needs to survive until December 12th. After that if it is not realistic then gosh darn it turns out Labour will have no choice but to campaign for Remain - how very different to what 90% of their members and 95% of their MPs were going to do anyway.
It'll be too late by then. The party that could have stopped brexit but failed. Good luck winning those lib dems back
In my experience there are many examples where members of a party are more likely to question their party than supproters of a party. Certainly, as per your experience of local government cooperation, you can find the elected members far less partisan than every day supporters.
I think that's why there is such concern about members becoming more fanatically partisan in many parties, and enforcing that same attitude on those they choose to to stand for the party.
Yes, that's a good point that you're making. In practice, members do tend to shrink from deselecting sitting MPs - I'm quite surprised at some of the Labour reselections, to be honest, but in the end we feel affection for the people we've helped elect and worked with. But the level of bile (on all sides) towards other parties is pretty high and possibly getting higher.
I have never read any Terry Pratchett. Mind you, I don’t read much fiction generally. What genre are they?
Science fantasy/comedy. And some of the sharpest observations on human nature that you will find in writing anywhere.
Have you read the Science of Discworld? Very witty mix of a Discworld story combined with examining 'Roundworld' science from the Big Bang, through evolution to space travel. Not your typical Discworld story but very good.
Comments
Is why.
Their final moments will have been particularly unpleasant; the nature of their death catches the imagination, and not in a good way. And it is a totemic event; the situation in the US with 9/11 victims is not dissimilar, as victims of smaller scale outrages go forgotten.
To get to 41 they'd need all 22 of their holds (including 10 defectors) and every target up to Bermondsey (11% swing). I think they'll get Bermondsey, but they won't get 40 others. They'd need 25%+ or some serious tac votes.
Anyway, I'm on.
B. Johnson: 41%
J. Corbyn: 26%
via @YouGov, 31 Oct - 04 Nov
Certainly this whole election feels different last couple of days. Bizarrely I think the nations up for a winter election. Maybe like how TV viewing is up in winter without summer distractions people got more time to get into it. Even this early in it we can all agree, this certainly isn’t going to be a brexit election, or Parliament v people election?
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Berwickshire Roxburgh and Selkirk
Con @ 1.33
BRS is the last to fall, barring a Lib Dem revival that would make Lazarus look like a lightweight and is available @51
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Because some politicians are addicted to media controversy.
In this case, staying in the flats was the wrong thing to do. In other cases, it might well be the most sensible thing to do. I don’t think you can draw some general lesson - either about trusting or not the state. Look at the police advice about a terror attack which has changed from staying put and hiding to running away. And yet - depending on the circumstances - both of those pieces of advice could be the most common-sense thing to do (remember our own @BJO hiding in his bathroom in Tunisia a few years back) or the most stupid.
A close relative of mine took up LOCAL politics as a sideline to running her own reasonably successful small business, after reasonably senior jobs in midranking global megacorps.
It's started consuming her. Real local problems, where a modest amount of understanding the constituent's problem, the reason officials are doing what they're doing and the reason the local politicians are doing what they're doing can transform someone's misery into a sane result for all concerned. And, slowly, turn her own party into the likely front runner in Authorities where they were a minor player a decade ago (start in one tier of Authority and you find yourself pushed to spread to the other three)
One of the reasons she's clearly making a contribution is that - as most businesspeople purport to be true of them too - she's found herself more motivated by seeing results than by the chimera of "taking decisions". In local politics, if you've got reasonable social skills, views conventional thinking sees as hostile are just different perspectives on a messy situation. Force, however subtly, your colleagues to confront that and there's huge satisfaction in getting a result. You don't "take decisions" because you've got no authority. The challenge is to be effective without formal authority.
The real reason businesspeople look down on politics is a combination of greed and arrogance. It's easy to condemn Johnson for his "Fuck business" nonsense: but I've hardly ever, in 45 years in business, found a businessperson who didn't think themselves entitled to express, without shame, "Fuck politicians" bigotry.
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/insights/ge2017-marginal-seats-and-turnout/
But that is yougov 4 nov. Let’s keep an eye on that one for movement in the coming weeks. If the polishing of the turd can’t close that gap it helps this betting site call it before the result?
Oddly no one really mentioned it at the time (or for much of yesterday) and even the LBC presenter Nick Ferrari didn't pick him up on what he said.
You watch the whole thing here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NC9YC3hlxRA
A mix of Dom Cummings and Isaac Levido are running the campaign, the latter is a protégé of Sir Lynton.
I'm very nervous about the proposed TV adaption, not to any particular book, but on 'The Watch' generally.
https://www.radiotimes.com/news/tv/2018-11-01/terry-pratchetts-discworld-tv-series-bbc-the-watch/
Must be quite an interesting thing to be involved in deciding these balances.
The short answer is it is insanely complicated.
Or it could be very, very simple.
Not my party anymore.
I really do not see much changing in the next month
In the end Corbyn may well see a poor GE result, but above all else he may well have facilitated brexit more than any other opposition politician, and on the way devastated the moderate sensible labour party that won three elections
Later
Of the defectors, if absolutely everything went perfectly for them, they'd hold Torbay and South Cambs. Everything else is a certain loss
Oh yeah. And everything is not going perfectly.
Pete Wishart is where it gets insanely complicated/really simple. I currently don't feel like I can make a prognostic.
Unsurprising given St Hezza of Westlands Lib Demmery in the summer
What could make better use of that space?
On the other hand, what you're doing naturally affects far fewer people and your powers to do anything that changes lives for the better are strictly limited and constrained by Government. I hope to help improve the availability of low-cost housing; make the borough greener; improve local transport and parking and er that's about it. Also, although it's paid at the level of a part-time job, to do it well you'd ideally do it full time, and most of the councillors are indeed retired. Because I have a day job, I feel guilty that I'm not spending 8 hours a day on the council work, as I'm quite sure i could do more if I had more time. I think it's a really good retirement job, though, if you want to "give something back".
I took part in a terrorism workshop with police as part of a compulsory health and safety training day. It was good, but I was slightly troubled that they did not mention that it was a bad idea, when you've successfully hidden and survived, to open the door when 'the police' anounce themselves, as this can be a technique used by mass killers to flush out more victims. So I asked the question, and the trainers vehemently confirmed that you should remain hidden until it is confirmed beyond doubt that it's the police. But it wouldn't have been mentioned in the session otherwise. Nobody is perfect and we need to inform ourselves.
This storm in a teacup is just distracting from looking at the people who decided to clad the block with flammable sheets against the advice of the manufacturers. They made it into a fire trap no fire brigade could rescue people from.
The London figures are very interesting and the top line numbers hide a real collapse of Labour support in Inner London but they can afford that in constituencies like East Ham where Stephen Timms clings on by 39,883 votes.
The LDs and BP have candidates and I imagine Timms will be re-selected so we await the Conservative choice who I imagine will do very little in the constituency and will help in places like Ilford North perhaps.
Apart from 2005 when Respect polled 21% and came second, Stephen Timms has polled above 70% in every election since 2001 so that's a baseline for his support number.
The Conservatives have been second in every GE apart from 2005 but from 15-16% in 2010 they've eased back to 12-13%. The LDs polled 11% in 2010 but crashed to 1.2% finishing fourth, 41 votes behind UKIP.
I'd like to think the deposit can be saved and the share will be nearer 10% than 5%. BP won't do much and neither will the Greens who polled only 0.8% here last time.
JCJ: Honestly spoken, I don’t think that this is a realistic approach.
#StandUp4Brexit https://t.co/C8q25WVFth
The great ones make me feel like they are saying something important, whilst still first and foremost just telling a great story in a funny way, rather than some award winning novel which sells itself on its deep philsophical insights. I much prefer feeling like I am gleaning insights from a book which is just trying to be funny, rather than go in expecting some deep message.
Night's Watch probably relies on knowing the backstory of the characters from earlier books a bit for some, but I'd rank it is a truly great novel - intense, moving and hilarious. Going Postal was great for newbies, or The Truth, both being almost standalone compared to earlier books.
Looking at the history of the national LibDem vote in Scotland vs Constituency Lib Dem vote is infuriating.
Between 2015 and 2017 the Lib Dem lost 0.7 percentage points (about 10% of their remaing vote) yet in Constituencies that still had a strong LD vote (Like Ross Skye and Lochaber or West Aberdeenshire) that translated into a 15 point drop or some ridiculous shit like that.
Given the Lib Dems are now polling at double their 2017.vote how do you model that swing? My working theory is SCons are going to take a hammering in exactly the seats they cannot afford to lose votes in as natural LDs shot back from tactical Con votes to their regular home But WHO The FUCK Knows.
"For instance, the £250bn estimated cost of installing loft insulation, double glazing and renewable, low-carbon technologies in all the UK’s 27m homes – or an average of £9,300 per house – will come £60bn from the state to pay for the lowest income households, and the balance from the rest of us via interest-free government loans to be repaid out of the supposed savings we make on our energy bills.
Simples. Now why did no one think of that before?
Because it’s laughably unworkable in a free society, that’s why."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/11/05/labours-green-new-deal-no-just-puerile-delusional-nonsense-dressed/
Actually, I am pretty sure it has been tried. There was some kind of green scheme a few years involving boilers, iirc, or possibly insulation, where the householder was loaned the money and paid back through saved energy bills.
I think about 300 people signed up across whole of UK.
I think that's why there is such concern about members becoming more fanatically partisan in many parties, and enforcing that same attitude on those they choose to to stand for the party.
In all these incidents it is easy to be wise after the event, but in the uncertainty of an evolving situation confusion will reign.
Have had M&S mostly in the past.
No exclusive London tailors selling for £1000 please!
We're going to have far fewer tweets on here now.