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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the latest YouGov is on the right lines the Tories are set

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    More lies. Where was the unilateral exit in the original plan?

    I don't engage with people who falsely accuse me of lying.
    do you engage with people who correctly accuse you of lying ? :-)

    If I can find any, yes of course.
    I believe youre voting LD so shouldnt be a log wait :smiley:
    Ms Swinson has been doing an excellent job trying to dissuade me from voting LibDem.
    Do you want me to send you some LibDem leaflets that I have surplus to requirements ?

    They may do the trick.
    I already have a lifetime's supply, thanks!
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    DavidL said:

    Philip Hammond facing the inevitability of oblivion today. It is startling to add up what happened to the cabinet May chose to negotiate Brexit. Damien Green, David Lidington, Philip Hammond, Amber Rudd, Justine Greening, David Gauke, no doubt others. It is an incredible changing of the guard and it is hard not to conclude that when May had control exactly the same thing could have happened to the ERG loons who made her life such a misery, if only she had had the courage to take them on.

    Boris got a lot of flak for excluding the 21 from the party but there is no question that the next Tory party, whether in government or out of it, is going to be more cohesive and reliable in its voting.

    There are still quite a number of potential rebels. Your assumption is also that he will get a majority, which even with the helpfulness of J Corbyn is far from a dead cert.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,127


    More lies. Where was the unilateral exit in the original plan?

    I don't engage with people who falsely accuse me of lying.
    do you engage with people who correctly accuse you of lying ? :-)

    If I can find any, yes of course.
    I believe youre voting LD so shouldnt be a log wait :smiley:
    Ms Swinson has been doing an excellent job trying to dissuade me from voting LibDem.
    How so, she seems to be doing OK form this ex-Tory's perspective. A little lightweight so far, but no more so than the alternatives.
    She’s a bit lightweight, but compared to the bantamweights Corbo and Bunter, that’s okay. I like her. She seems like a nice lady. She does have the air of a primary school teacher, but that’s mostly the colourful dangly earrings. The opprobrium she attracts on here is bizarre.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,762

    "I don't think that this is a realistic approach"

    Jean-Claude Juncker says he doesn't think it’s realistic for Jeremy Corbyn to negotiate a new Brexit deal if Labour wins the election, but says it’d be a decision for the incoming EC president

    https://t.co/s8AVIRRXNV https://t.co/mTzcqMVc5P

    Well, since: a) he said that about Boris's chances, b) Labour want a CU which the EU will jump at, and c) Junker will be gone anyway... I think we can take that with une pincée de sel.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,561
    edited November 2019
    On topic, if Labour doing this badly in London then they are going to get smashed all over Britain.
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    Sounds like an SNP voter.

    Scottish man gets a rocket from health and safety chiefs after injuring himself launching a firework from his BOTTOM

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7649797/Scottish-man-filmed-launching-firework-BOTTOM.html

    PS - Am I doing this clickbait malarkey right?

    I cannot use the daily mail site as I find the jumble of overlapping, bouncing, scrolling ads a total distraction.

    Not even going to try any more. What are the web designers (and the advertisers) thinking?!
    I never look at the mail site. I receive the actual paper through the mail.plus app at £9.99 per month
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    Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268


    Any examples? Links to Youtube or Facebook? Or even to descriptions? Most of the post-election commentary praised Labour's 2017 digital operation.

    I was shown some of them by my nephews. They went on to vote Labour. What was most interesting about it was to see the brain-washing in operation; it was extremely effective even with intelligent and well-educated youngsters, albeit highly cynical.

    The kinds of thing that were in the videos were very nasty insinuations about Theresa May and Grenfell, or implying that she took active delight in people committing suicide. Really, really nasty stuff.

    Fortunately youngsters now seem to have become a bit more inured to Corbyn's charms; those I know all seem to be voting LibDem this time.
    Tell them to vote tactically anti-Tory if they live in the ~100-150 marginals, or they'll let in a Nasty Party govt. featuring ministers who want to send the poor to the workhouse (if not 'put them down'). There's very little risk of a Corbyn govt., only a Lab/LD/SNP pact.
    No-one of integrity should vote Labour for as long as it is run by anti-Semitic, terrorist-supporting, economy-destroying Corbyn.
    The current PM said F*** Business. Brexit is for life, not just for Xmas. A govt's only for 4-5 years.

    The chances of a Labour majority are about zero. The betting odds are probably ~50, i.e. highly improbable. Any Corbyn victory would be neutered by the SDP wing. Unlike the rather striking cull of One-Nation Tories, there hasn't been a similar cull of the Labour right incl Benn or Cooper although some who were probably always more at home in a Centre Party have ended up as L.Dems.
    People thought there was zero chance of Corbyn becoming PM last time but it turned out it was margin of error stuff. The volatility of current politics mean there is a decent minority chance. People get far too certain about these things.

    And we can join the EU again. We likely will given demographics. However I am not sure anti-Semitism will be put back in the bottle after Corbyn is PM.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,783

    blueblue said:

    I'm not actually sure about this one. What exactly have Labour achieved in a week that the Tories seem to have taken off as a pre-election holiday? They've whined about the NHS and reminded everyone of what a mess their Brexit "policy" is. The few points they've recovered from LDs / Greens / whoever seem to be more of a Pavlovian reaction to an FPTP election being called than anything else.

    I think they might have opened up a chink for the Tories, and perhaps the LibDems, to attack them on the NHS. I'm referring to their stated policy of wanting to bring all NHS provision in house. Currently around 6% of elective surgery is sub-contracted by the NHS to private hospitals, and some of those at least have a very good reputation. For example, in my area the Horder Centre is widely used for things like hip replacements, and is reckoned to be really good. A lot of people will either have been treated in such hospitals, or will have friends and relatives who have. A well-targeted and well-researched campaign saying that 'Labour want to shut XXX', where XXX is a well-regarded local facility like that, might be quite effective, if the Conservatives get it right.
    I don't think Labour want to shut those extra units so much as to nationalise them.

    Private hospitals now make about half their income from outsourced NHS surgery, mostly due to inadequate capacity in the NHS. As it is all done by Consultants with substantive NHS contracts, a requirement of admission rights in the private sector.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited November 2019


    The EU originally offered a unilateral exit from any special arrangements for Northern Ireland? When did they originally offer this, or are you making up nonsense because you are too far down the rabbit hole to admit Boris did better than you expected?

    They offered almost exactly what Boris agreed to as their opening offer, with Michel Barnier making a big play about de-dramatising the regulatory requirements. True, at the end they gave Boris a fig-leaf of a theoretical unilateral exit from the NI arrangement, but no-one on this earth, literally no-one, thinks it's an exit which can ever actually happen in practice, so it's not exactly a major concession. The most significant thing from their point of view is that it removes the original backstop, which was so advantageous to us.
    Only in your delusions was the backstop advantageous to us. The people calling for the backstop to be removed was Boris and the Brexiteers not Barnier and the EU. In fact they did quite the opposite.

    Until you are willing to admit that removing the backstop was a victory not failure for a leader elected on a pledge to remove the backstop you just come across as bitter.
    Boris said a border down the Irish Sea was unacceptable

    Boris agreed to a deal with a border down the Irish seas.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,762

    Sounds like an SNP voter.

    Scottish man gets a rocket from health and safety chiefs after injuring himself launching a firework from his BOTTOM

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7649797/Scottish-man-filmed-launching-firework-BOTTOM.html

    PS - Am I doing this clickbait malarkey right?

    I cannot use the daily mail site as I find the jumble of overlapping, bouncing, scrolling ads a total distraction.

    Not even going to try any more. What are the web designers (and the advertisers) thinking?!
    I never look at the mail site. I receive the actual paper through the mail.plus app at £9.99 per month
    Blimey Big_G, you pay real money for the DM!?
  • Options
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Philip Hammond facing the inevitability of oblivion today. It is startling to add up what happened to the cabinet May chose to negotiate Brexit. Damien Green, David Lidington, Philip Hammond, Amber Rudd, Justine Greening, David Gauke, no doubt others. It is an incredible changing of the guard and it is hard not to conclude that when May had control exactly the same thing could have happened to the ERG loons who made her life such a misery, if only she had had the courage to take them on.

    Boris got a lot of flak for excluding the 21 from the party but there is no question that the next Tory party, whether in government or out of it, is going to be more cohesive and reliable in its voting.

    I am not sure about that. It will certainly be a lot more right wing, which makes any further Johnson climbdowns in the ongoing negotiations with the EU very tricky indeed. How many would tolerate Johnson reneging on his promise not to extend the transition period, for example?

    I see 3 possible scenarios at the moment. The central one is that Boris wins a modest majority on the back of his deal. The deal goes through the Commons. The second possibility is that Boris wins massively. I still think he does the deal but the risk of some self indulgent nonsense based on no deal or (more likely) an extreme position taken during the transition is a possibility. The third possibility is that he does not get a majority in which case Brexit is dead.

    The deal is done if Johnson wins, of course, and Brexit is probably toast if he doesn't. But what I am talking about is his decision to rule out an extension of the transition period at the end of next year if a trade agreement has not been done with the EU. I cannot see the current iteration of the Conservative Party meekly accepting him reneging on that.

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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,197
    Have we checked that @Casino_Royale is okay...

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/nov/05/south-western-railway-staff-to-strike-for-nearly-all-of-december

    Rail workers on one of Britain’s biggest commuter networks, South Western Railway, are set to go on strike for almost all of December.

    The RMT union announced a total of 27 days of action for next month in the long-running dispute over the future role of guards on trains.</>
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    tlg86 said:

    Have we checked that @Casino_Royale is okay...

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/nov/05/south-western-railway-staff-to-strike-for-nearly-all-of-december

    Rail workers on one of Britain’s biggest commuter networks, South Western Railway, are set to go on strike for almost all of December.

    The RMT union announced a total of 27 days of action for next month in the long-running dispute over the future role of guards on trains.</>

    They are going on strike for 27 days in a month? I can see them falling out of favour quite rapidly.
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    How so, she seems to be doing OK form this ex-Tory's perspective. A little lightweight so far, but no more so than the alternatives.

    It's things like:

    - Trying to tack votes for children and votes for foreigners onto an election scheduled for a few weeks' time. I'm against both, but could live with those as policies to at least consider, but it strikes me as mad to try to introduce them with zero thought as an amendment to a bill setting a date for an election - or, worse, as gerrymandering.

    - Then the utter silliness about the 9th December vs the 12th December. I mean, that's the kind of childishness I expect from the SNP, not from a party seriously wanting my vote.

    - And then they even managed to vote against the election which a couple of days earlier they'd asked for. She should leave that sort of loony inconsistency to Labour, who have that market sewn up.

    - And then the utterly bonkers whinge that she was excluded from the TV debates because of sexism. The LibDems just about might have had a very weak case for wanting to be included, and certainly I would expect them to say they should be included, but blaming it on sexism is barmy.
    OK, well they are reasons I grant you, though a little overly critical. I think some of the reason for excluding her from the TV debates does have some basis in sexism. If she were there, the party managers for the blue and red team know it would show up the certain misogyny and old school staleness of Johnson and Corbyn.
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    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Philip Hammond facing the inevitability of oblivion today. It is startling to add up what happened to the cabinet May chose to negotiate Brexit. Damien Green, David Lidington, Philip Hammond, Amber Rudd, Justine Greening, David Gauke, no doubt others. It is an incredible changing of the guard and it is hard not to conclude that when May had control exactly the same thing could have happened to the ERG loons who made her life such a misery, if only she had had the courage to take them on.

    Boris got a lot of flak for excluding the 21 from the party but there is no question that the next Tory party, whether in government or out of it, is going to be more cohesive and reliable in its voting.

    I am not sure about that. It will certainly be a lot more right wing, which makes any further Johnson climbdowns in the ongoing negotiations with the EU very tricky indeed. How many would tolerate Johnson reneging on his promise not to extend the transition period, for example?

    I see 3 possible scenarios at the moment. The central one is that Boris wins a modest majority on the back of his deal. The deal goes through the Commons. The second possibility is that Boris wins massively. I still think he does the deal but the risk of some self indulgent nonsense based on no deal or (more likely) an extreme position taken during the transition is a possibility. The third possibility is that he does not get a majority in which case Brexit is dead.

    The deal is done if Johnson wins, of course, and Brexit is probably toast if he doesn't. But what I am talking about is his decision to rule out an extension of the transition period at the end of next year if a trade agreement has not been done with the EU. I cannot see the current iteration of the Conservative Party meekly accepting him reneging on that.

    I think it’s easily finessed with some sort of “outline of an agreement” or even some HoTs.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,762

    On topic, if Labour doing this badly in London then they are going to get smashed all over Britain.


    ... in the GE this Thursday. Oh, wait...

    Labour were 18% behind the Tories 37 days before the 2017 GE, just saying.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,894
    edited November 2019
    Which was more costly; Getting Zaghari-Ratcliffe an extended prison sentence by not doing your homework or blaming the dead for being too stupid to get out of Grenfell Tower?

    A close run thing but what they've both got in common is the arrogance of Old Etonians.
  • Options


    More lies. Where was the unilateral exit in the original plan?

    I don't engage with people who falsely accuse me of lying.
    do you engage with people who correctly accuse you of lying ? :-)

    If I can find any, yes of course.
    I believe youre voting LD so shouldnt be a log wait :smiley:
    Ms Swinson has been doing an excellent job trying to dissuade me from voting LibDem.
    How so, she seems to be doing OK form this ex-Tory's perspective. A little lightweight so far, but no more so than the alternatives.
    She’s a bit lightweight, but compared to the bantamweights Corbo and Bunter, that’s okay. I like her. She seems like a nice lady. She does have the air of a primary school teacher, but that’s mostly the colourful dangly earrings. The opprobrium she attracts on here is bizarre.
    Agreed. I am warming to her.
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    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    edited November 2019

    DavidL said:

    Philip Hammond facing the inevitability of oblivion today. It is startling to add up what happened to the cabinet May chose to negotiate Brexit. Damien Green, David Lidington, Philip Hammond, Amber Rudd, Justine Greening, David Gauke, no doubt others. It is an incredible changing of the guard and it is hard not to conclude that when May had control exactly the same thing could have happened to the ERG loons who made her life such a misery, if only she had had the courage to take them on.

    Boris got a lot of flak for excluding the 21 from the party but there is no question that the next Tory party, whether in government or out of it, is going to be more cohesive and reliable in its voting.

    I am not sure about that. It will certainly be a lot more right wing, which makes any further Johnson climbdowns in the ongoing negotiations with the EU very tricky indeed. How many would tolerate Johnson reneging on his promise not to extend the transition period, for example?

    It also highlights the problem with the Brexiteers central theme that if we do not like our politicians we can just change them.

    No we cannot.

    Look at our current choice. Our system only allows one of two parties to triumph or a coalition every 30 to 40 years. So if we want to want to change our politicians, who do we chose? A bunch of increasingly right-wing nutters or the People's Revolutionary Front aka Corbyn's Labour?

    It is no choice at all, so Brexit fails its raison d'etre and we stuck with a bunch of twerps no matter what we do.
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    Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Alistair said:


    The EU originally offered a unilateral exit from any special arrangements for Northern Ireland? When did they originally offer this, or are you making up nonsense because you are too far down the rabbit hole to admit Boris did better than you expected?

    They offered almost exactly what Boris agreed to as their opening offer, with Michel Barnier making a big play about de-dramatising the regulatory requirements. True, at the end they gave Boris a fig-leaf of a theoretical unilateral exit from the NI arrangement, but no-one on this earth, literally no-one, thinks it's an exit which can ever actually happen in practice, so it's not exactly a major concession. The most significant thing from their point of view is that it removes the original backstop, which was so advantageous to us.
    Only in your delusions was the backstop advantageous to us. The people calling for the backstop to be removed was Boris and the Brexiteers not Barnier and the EU. In fact they did quite the opposite.

    Until you are willing to admit that removing the backstop was a victory not failure for a leader elected on a pledge to remove the backstop you just come across as bitter.
    Boris said a border down the Irish Sea was unacceptable

    Boris agreed to a deal with a border down the Irish seas.
    The actual border in customs territories will be between ROI and NI. It is just tht administrative checks will be done in the ports.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,368

    On topic, if Labour doing this badly in London then they are going to get smashed all over Britain.

    Scottish Labour look at their London cousins with deep envy, believe me.
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    blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    RobD said:

    tlg86 said:

    Have we checked that @Casino_Royale is okay...

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/nov/05/south-western-railway-staff-to-strike-for-nearly-all-of-december

    Rail workers on one of Britain’s biggest commuter networks, South Western Railway, are set to go on strike for almost all of December.

    The RMT union announced a total of 27 days of action for next month in the long-running dispute over the future role of guards on trains.</>

    They are going on strike for 27 days in a month? I can see them falling out of favour quite rapidly.
    The RMT are Tory [railway- :wink:] sleeper agents?
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    NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Sounds like an SNP voter.

    Scottish man gets a rocket from health and safety chiefs after injuring himself launching a firework from his BOTTOM

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7649797/Scottish-man-filmed-launching-firework-BOTTOM.html

    PS - Am I doing this clickbait malarkey right?

    I cannot use the daily mail site as I find the jumble of overlapping, bouncing, scrolling ads a total distraction.

    Not even going to try any more. What are the web designers (and the advertisers) thinking?!
    Well, if it gets the attention of the half-blind superannuated masturbators that is the Mail's core market, that's the job done.
  • Options
    Roger said:

    Which was more costly; Getting Zaghari-Ratcliffe an extended prison sentence by not doing your homework or blaming the dead for being too stupid to get out of Grenfell Tower?

    A close run thing but what they've both got in common is the arrogance of Old Etonians. Something voters might notice.

    I don't think it has anything to do with being an old Etonian; I have met some very humble extremely affable and pleasant ones. Rees-Mogg is just a not very bright tosser. You find them at all schools. Eton is no exception.
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    Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Roger said:

    Which was more costly; Getting Zaghari-Ratcliffe an extended prison sentence by not doing your homework or blaming the dead for being too stupid to get out of Grenfell Tower?

    A close run thing but what they've both got in common is the arrogance of Old Etonians.

    It is such a spectacular unforced error, made worse by the doubling down.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986
    Alistair said:


    The EU originally offered a unilateral exit from any special arrangements for Northern Ireland? When did they originally offer this, or are you making up nonsense because you are too far down the rabbit hole to admit Boris did better than you expected?

    They offered almost exactly what Boris agreed to as their opening offer, with Michel Barnier making a big play about de-dramatising the regulatory requirements. True, at the end they gave Boris a fig-leaf of a theoretical unilateral exit from the NI arrangement, but no-one on this earth, literally no-one, thinks it's an exit which can ever actually happen in practice, so it's not exactly a major concession. The most significant thing from their point of view is that it removes the original backstop, which was so advantageous to us.
    Only in your delusions was the backstop advantageous to us. The people calling for the backstop to be removed was Boris and the Brexiteers not Barnier and the EU. In fact they did quite the opposite.

    Until you are willing to admit that removing the backstop was a victory not failure for a leader elected on a pledge to remove the backstop you just come across as bitter.
    Boris said a border down the Irish Sea was unacceptable

    Boris agreed to a deal with a border down the Irish seas.
    He's fibbing about no deal too
  • Options

    "I don't think that this is a realistic approach"

    Jean-Claude Juncker says he doesn't think it’s realistic for Jeremy Corbyn to negotiate a new Brexit deal if Labour wins the election, but says it’d be a decision for the incoming EC president

    https://t.co/s8AVIRRXNV https://t.co/mTzcqMVc5P

    Well, since: a) he said that about Boris's chances, b) Labour want a CU which the EU will jump at, and c) Junker will be gone anyway... I think we can take that with une pincée de sel.
    The EU have said they will not open the treaty and the idea a new treaty can be agreed with the EU 27 and their Parliament and then a referendum take placeby mid June is for the birds.

    It will take some months to put in place any changes and then a referendum legislation will take months plus a 22 weeks campaign

    The whole process would drag on through most of 2020 with no certainty of outcome
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137

    On topic, if Labour doing this badly in London then they are going to get smashed all over Britain.


    ... in the GE this Thursday. Oh, wait...

    Labour were 18% behind the Tories 37 days before the 2017 GE, just saying.
    You don't think that since 2017, people might just have noticed that flocking to Corbyn simply led to completely fucked up Govt.? And that many, many might not want to repeat that mistake?
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    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,962

    On topic, if Labour doing this badly in London then they are going to get smashed all over Britain.

    Something something dockside something?
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,368

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Philip Hammond facing the inevitability of oblivion today. It is startling to add up what happened to the cabinet May chose to negotiate Brexit. Damien Green, David Lidington, Philip Hammond, Amber Rudd, Justine Greening, David Gauke, no doubt others. It is an incredible changing of the guard and it is hard not to conclude that when May had control exactly the same thing could have happened to the ERG loons who made her life such a misery, if only she had had the courage to take them on.

    Boris got a lot of flak for excluding the 21 from the party but there is no question that the next Tory party, whether in government or out of it, is going to be more cohesive and reliable in its voting.

    I am not sure about that. It will certainly be a lot more right wing, which makes any further Johnson climbdowns in the ongoing negotiations with the EU very tricky indeed. How many would tolerate Johnson reneging on his promise not to extend the transition period, for example?

    I see 3 possible scenarios at the moment. The central one is that Boris wins a modest majority on the back of his deal. The deal goes through the Commons. The second possibility is that Boris wins massively. I still think he does the deal but the risk of some self indulgent nonsense based on no deal or (more likely) an extreme position taken during the transition is a possibility. The third possibility is that he does not get a majority in which case Brexit is dead.

    The deal is done if Johnson wins, of course, and Brexit is probably toast if he doesn't. But what I am talking about is his decision to rule out an extension of the transition period at the end of next year if a trade agreement has not been done with the EU. I cannot see the current iteration of the Conservative Party meekly accepting him reneging on that.

    What we need is a trade deal that is so close to what we have in the transitional period that we don't need an extension. I agree that Boris will find that a hard sell but I think he will be trying. The hope is that once we are actually out a lot of the heat and madness goes out of this.
  • Options
    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483


    More lies. Where was the unilateral exit in the original plan?

    I don't engage with people who falsely accuse me of lying.
    do you engage with people who correctly accuse you of lying ? :-)

    If I can find any, yes of course.
    I believe youre voting LD so shouldnt be a log wait :smiley:
    Ms Swinson has been doing an excellent job trying to dissuade me from voting LibDem.
    snap

    the nanny knows best approach just makes me switch off
    Come on you were never going to vote Lib Dem as are all the other posters who are making snide and unjustified comments about her. The U.K. faces a choice of voting for a duplicitous buffoon taken hostage by the extreme right, a lunatic nationalizing incompetent idiot and a center ground alternative seeking to solve the real problems in health, education , electoral reform and a range of other issues. Corbyn and Johnson are both as bad as each other.
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    NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    edited November 2019

    On topic, if Labour doing this badly in London then they are going to get smashed all over Britain.


    ... in the GE this Thursday. Oh, wait...

    Labour were 18% behind the Tories 37 days before the 2017 GE, just saying.
    You don't think that since 2017, people might just have noticed that flocking to Corbyn simply led to completely fucked up Govt.? And that many, many might not want to repeat that mistake?
    :D:D:D:D
    "Why are these successive Conservative governments so shit?"
    "It's Labour's fault"
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    Swinson needs to be told that Boris has already suspended fracking:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50297164
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    blueblueblueblue Posts: 875

    On topic, if Labour doing this badly in London then they are going to get smashed all over Britain.


    ... in the GE this Thursday. Oh, wait...

    Labour were 18% behind the Tories 37 days before the 2017 GE, just saying.
    You don't think that since 2017, people might just have noticed that flocking to Corbyn simply led to completely fucked up Govt.? And that many, many might not want to repeat that mistake?
    If the electorate haven't learned from that experience, then I genuinely despair.
  • Options
    kyf_100 said:

    On topic, if Labour doing this badly in London then they are going to get smashed all over Britain.

    Something something dockside something?
    No that's rude and vulgar.

    I was thinking of using 'Labour are going to get beaten like morning wood' but I self censored myself.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,119
    edited November 2019
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Philip Hammond facing the inevitability of oblivion today. It is startling to add up what happened to the cabinet May chose to negotiate Brexit. Damien Green, David Lidington, Philip Hammond, Amber Rudd, Justine Greening, David Gauke, no doubt others. It is an incredible changing of the guard and it is hard not to conclude that when May had control exactly the same thing could have happened to the ERG loons who made her life such a misery, if only she had had the courage to take them on.

    Boris got a lot of flak for excluding the 21 from the party but there is no question that the next Tory party, whether in government or out of it, is going to be more cohesive and reliable in its voting.

    I am not sure about that. It will certainly be a lot more right wing, which makes any further Johnson climbdowns in the ongoing negotiations with the EU very tricky indeed. How many would tolerate Johnson reneging on his promise not to extend the transition period, for example?

    I see 3 possible scenarios at the moment. The central one is that Boris wins a modest majority on the back of his deal. The deal goes through the Commons. The second possibility is that Boris wins massively. I still think he does the deal but the risk of some self indulgent nonsense based on no deal or (more likely) an extreme position taken during the transition is a possibility. The third possibility is that he does not get a majority in which case Brexit is dead.
    You think there is zero chance of Brexit winning a second referendum?
  • Options

    Thanks to @AaronBell4NUL, Conservative candidate for #NewcastleUnderLyme, for signing our new pledge.

    ✔️#BackBoris’ deal to #GetBrexitDone

    ✔️Back ‘No Deal’ if Withdrawal Agreement still not approved by 31st January

    #StandUp4Brexit https://t.co/OSyMB3P65s

    What an idiot. No deal is just stupidity of the highest order.
    I understand conservative mps signing the pledge will not have a TBP candidate standing in their seats

    And he is a fellow poster on PB
    Is that official? If so, that sounds like the sort of deal to ensure BXP can climb down from standing everywhere and #BollocksingBrexit

  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,762

    On topic, if Labour doing this badly in London then they are going to get smashed all over Britain.


    ... in the GE this Thursday. Oh, wait...

    Labour were 18% behind the Tories 37 days before the 2017 GE, just saying.
    You don't think that since 2017, people might just have noticed that flocking to Corbyn simply led to completely fucked up Govt.? And that many, many might not want to repeat that mistake?
    Correct - I don't.

    The people who flocked to Corbyn will (rightly) blame the the people who flocked to May for this completely fucked up government.
  • Options
    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,005
    edited November 2019
    JRM lead story on ITV.

    Was that on Dom’s grid for today?
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    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Philip Hammond facing the inevitability of oblivion today. It is startling to add up what happened to the cabinet May chose to negotiate Brexit. Damien Green, David Lidington, Philip Hammond, Amber Rudd, Justine Greening, David Gauke, no doubt others. It is an incredible changing of the guard and it is hard not to conclude that when May had control exactly the same thing could have happened to the ERG loons who made her life such a misery, if only she had had the courage to take them on.

    Boris got a lot of flak for excluding the 21 from the party but there is no question that the next Tory party, whether in government or out of it, is going to be more cohesive and reliable in its voting.

    I am not sure about that. It will certainly be a lot more right wing, which makes any further Johnson climbdowns in the ongoing negotiations with the EU very tricky indeed. How many would tolerate Johnson reneging on his promise not to extend the transition period, for example?

    I see 3 possible scenarios at the moment. The central one is that Boris wins a modest majority on the back of his deal. The deal goes through the Commons. The second possibility is that Boris wins massively. I still think he does the deal but the risk of some self indulgent nonsense based on no deal or (more likely) an extreme position taken during the transition is a possibility. The third possibility is that he does not get a majority in which case Brexit is dead.

    The deal is done if Johnson wins, of course, and Brexit is probably toast if he doesn't. But what I am talking about is his decision to rule out an extension of the transition period at the end of next year if a trade agreement has not been done with the EU. I cannot see the current iteration of the Conservative Party meekly accepting him reneging on that.

    What we need is a trade deal that is so close to what we have in the transitional period that we don't need an extension. I agree that Boris will find that a hard sell but I think he will be trying. The hope is that once we are actually out a lot of the heat and madness goes out of this.

    I think it will in the country, but not in the Tory party.
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    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    blueblue said:

    On topic, if Labour doing this badly in London then they are going to get smashed all over Britain.


    ... in the GE this Thursday. Oh, wait...

    Labour were 18% behind the Tories 37 days before the 2017 GE, just saying.
    You don't think that since 2017, people might just have noticed that flocking to Corbyn simply led to completely fucked up Govt.? And that many, many might not want to repeat that mistake?
    If the electorate haven't learned from that experience, then I genuinely despair.
    For some reason you think the tories are the solution others disagree.
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    DavidL said:

    Philip Hammond facing the inevitability of oblivion today. It is startling to add up what happened to the cabinet May chose to negotiate Brexit. Damien Green, David Lidington, Philip Hammond, Amber Rudd, Justine Greening, David Gauke, no doubt others. It is an incredible changing of the guard and it is hard not to conclude that when May had control exactly the same thing could have happened to the ERG loons who made her life such a misery, if only she had had the courage to take them on.

    Boris got a lot of flak for excluding the 21 from the party but there is no question that the next Tory party, whether in government or out of it, is going to be more cohesive and reliable in its voting.

    I am not sure about that. It will certainly be a lot more right wing, which makes any further Johnson climbdowns in the ongoing negotiations with the EU very tricky indeed. How many would tolerate Johnson reneging on his promise not to extend the transition period, for example?

    It also highlights the problem with the Brexiteers central theme that if we do not like our politicians we can just change them.

    No we cannot.

    Look at our current choice. Our system only allows one of two parties to triumph or a coalition every 30 to 40 years. So if we want to want to change our politicians, who do we chose? A bunch of increasingly right-wing nutters or the People's Revolutionary Front aka Corbyn's Labour?

    It is no choice at all, so Brexit fails its raison d'etre and we stuck with a bunch of twerps no matter what we do.
    Words of wisdom from you again Ms C.
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    Swinson needs to be told that Boris has already suspended fracking:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50297164

    I am sure he will start it up again once he has the relevant votes in the bag. After the election, what the voters think will not matter...
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    DavidL said:

    Philip Hammond facing the inevitability of oblivion today. It is startling to add up what happened to the cabinet May chose to negotiate Brexit. Damien Green, David Lidington, Philip Hammond, Amber Rudd, Justine Greening, David Gauke, no doubt others. It is an incredible changing of the guard and it is hard not to conclude that when May had control exactly the same thing could have happened to the ERG loons who made her life such a misery, if only she had had the courage to take them on.

    Boris got a lot of flak for excluding the 21 from the party but there is no question that the next Tory party, whether in government or out of it, is going to be more cohesive and reliable in its voting.

    I am not sure about that. It will certainly be a lot more right wing, which makes any further Johnson climbdowns in the ongoing negotiations with the EU very tricky indeed. How many would tolerate Johnson reneging on his promise not to extend the transition period, for example?

    It also highlights the problem with the Brexiteers central theme that if we do not like our politicians we can just change them.

    No we cannot.

    Look at our current choice. Our system only allows one of two parties to triumph or a coalition every 30 to 40 years. So if we want to want to change our politicians, who do we chose? A bunch of increasingly right-wing nutters or the People's Revolutionary Front aka Corbyn's Labour?

    It is no choice at all, so Brexit fails its raison d'etre and we stuck with a bunch of twerps no matter what we do.
    Words of wisdom from you again Ms C.
    Thank you.
  • Options

    Sounds like an SNP voter.

    Scottish man gets a rocket from health and safety chiefs after injuring himself launching a firework from his BOTTOM

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7649797/Scottish-man-filmed-launching-firework-BOTTOM.html

    PS - Am I doing this clickbait malarkey right?

    I cannot use the daily mail site as I find the jumble of overlapping, bouncing, scrolling ads a total distraction.

    Not even going to try any more. What are the web designers (and the advertisers) thinking?!
    I never look at the mail site. I receive the actual paper through the mail.plus app at £9.99 per month
    Blimey Big_G, you pay real money for the DM!?
    I had the daily mail delivered for many years and went on line with it some time ago. I genuinely do not read it most of the time but it is very much used by my wife who does the puzzles daily, keeping active as she reaches 80
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062

    Cookie said:

    If the Tories do make gains in London - and Wales, and the North - and losses in the home counties - and form a government - then it could be the most geographically balanced party in power we've seen for some time. A lot of ifs there, mind you.

    Especially if they can hold off the SNP too.
    Highly unlikely
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,955

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Philip Hammond facing the inevitability of oblivion today. It is startling to add up what happened to the cabinet May chose to negotiate Brexit. Damien Green, David Lidington, Philip Hammond, Amber Rudd, Justine Greening, David Gauke, no doubt others. It is an incredible changing of the guard and it is hard not to conclude that when May had control exactly the same thing could have happened to the ERG loons who made her life such a misery, if only she had had the courage to take them on.

    Boris got a lot of flak for excluding the 21 from the party but there is no question that the next Tory party, whether in government or out of it, is going to be more cohesive and reliable in its voting.

    I am not sure about that. It will certainly be a lot more right wing, which makes any further Johnson climbdowns in the ongoing negotiations with the EU very tricky indeed. How many would tolerate Johnson reneging on his promise not to extend the transition period, for example?

    I see 3 possible scenarios at the moment. The central one is that Boris wins a modest majority on the back of his deal. The deal goes through the Commons. The second possibility is that Boris wins massively. I still think he does the deal but the risk of some self indulgent nonsense based on no deal or (more likely) an extreme position taken during the transition is a possibility. The third possibility is that he does not get a majority in which case Brexit is dead.
    You think there is zero chance of Brexit winning a second referendum?
    About 15% maybe. If significant numbers of leavers won't accept leaving under May or Boris deals via parliament, at least some of them will not if either gets put to a referendum. Add to that Remain growing in strength and I'd agree with DavidL, any outcome other than a Tory majority means Brexit is dead.
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    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Swinson needs to be told that Boris has already suspended fracking:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50297164


    Only until after the election if you think it won’t start again then if they win then ".......
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,503
    edited November 2019
    Just for shits and giggles, what do we think the polling and GE2019 might look like if it were still on for 12th December and...

    (1) The Tories (led by Stewart or Hammond) had campaigned on a 2nd referendum plus Remain platform on the basis of Cameron’s Deal+ (they’d looked at Leave, and couldn’t reach an agreement in the national interest they could in good faith recommend, so were pledging a new vote on a new - improved - Deal inside the EU instead)
    (2) The Lib Dems were still led by Swinson but with no Tory defectors, just from Corbyn’s Labour
    (3) Labour was the same current shitshow
    (4) The Brexit Party was full-on billy bollocks for Brexit and led by Farage, going utterly apeshit about the Tory position
    (5) Sturgeon was still the same and basically trying it on (again) with a 2nd indyref lush

    Thoughts??
  • Options

    JRM lead story on ITV.

    Was that on Dom’s grid for today?

    I expect he is going to provide plenty more materiel for Labour before the campaign is out.
  • Options
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Philip Hammond facing the inevitability of oblivion today. It is startling to add up what happened to the cabinet May chose to negotiate Brexit. Damien Green, David Lidington, Philip Hammond, Amber Rudd, Justine Greening, David Gauke, no doubt others. It is an incredible changing of the guard and it is hard not to conclude that when May had control exactly the same thing could have happened to the ERG loons who made her life such a misery, if only she had had the courage to take them on.

    Boris got a lot of flak for excluding the 21 from the party but there is no question that the next Tory party, whether in government or out of it, is going to be more cohesive and reliable in its voting.

    I am not sure about that. It will certainly be a lot more right wing, which makes any further Johnson climbdowns in the ongoing negotiations with the EU very tricky indeed. How many would tolerate Johnson reneging on his promise not to extend the transition period, for example?

    I see 3 possible scenarios at the moment. The central one is that Boris wins a modest majority on the back of his deal. The deal goes through the Commons. The second possibility is that Boris wins massively. I still think he does the deal but the risk of some self indulgent nonsense based on no deal or (more likely) an extreme position taken during the transition is a possibility. The third possibility is that he does not get a majority in which case Brexit is dead.

    The deal is done if Johnson wins, of course, and Brexit is probably toast if he doesn't. But what I am talking about is his decision to rule out an extension of the transition period at the end of next year if a trade agreement has not been done with the EU. I cannot see the current iteration of the Conservative Party meekly accepting him reneging on that.

    What we need is a trade deal that is so close to what we have in the transitional period that we don't need an extension. I agree that Boris will find that a hard sell but I think he will be trying. The hope is that once we are actually out a lot of the heat and madness goes out of this.
    The heat and madness will go on for years. Brexit is a debilitating disease, a cure for which is currently beyond scientific understanding or capability .
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    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,782

    And people wonder why ex-Tories like me thing the party has been taken over by fuckwits! You really could not make it up! The only reason Labour isn't 20 points ahead is because they have chosen an even more cretinous individual to lead them!
    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1191773046031429632?s=20
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,955
    So have the Tories started campaigning yet?
  • Options

    Swinson needs to be told that Boris has already suspended fracking:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50297164

    I am sure he will start it up again once he has the relevant votes in the bag. After the election, what the voters think will not matter...
    No, fracking is dead. It has been for at least a couple of years, but the government didn't want to face the reality.

    It's a great pity, of course, but politics is the art of the possible. Better to accept the inevitable.
  • Options

    JRM lead story on ITV.

    Was that on Dom’s grid for today?

    Wargame plan No. 31,621 scenario 3, outcome 7......
  • Options
    I'm getting targeted ads telling me only the Tories can beat Corbyn's Labour in Sheffield Hallam
  • Options
    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Philip Hammond facing the inevitability of oblivion today. It is startling to add up what happened to the cabinet May chose to negotiate Brexit. Damien Green, David Lidington, Philip Hammond, Amber Rudd, Justine Greening, David Gauke, no doubt others. It is an incredible changing of the guard and it is hard not to conclude that when May had control exactly the same thing could have happened to the ERG loons who made her life such a misery, if only she had had the courage to take them on.

    Boris got a lot of flak for excluding the 21 from the party but there is no question that the next Tory party, whether in government or out of it, is going to be more cohesive and reliable in its voting.

    I am not sure about that. It will certainly be a lot more right wing, which makes any further Johnson climbdowns in the ongoing negotiations with the EU very tricky indeed. How many would tolerate Johnson reneging on his promise not to extend the transition period, for example?

    I see 3 possible scenarios at the moment. The central one is that Boris wins a modest majority on the back of his deal. The deal goes through the Commons. The second possibility is that Boris wins massively. I still think he does the deal but the risk of some self indulgent nonsense based on no deal or (more likely) an extreme position taken during the transition is a possibility. The third possibility is that he does not get a majority in which case Brexit is dead.

    The deal is done if Johnson wins, of course, and Brexit is probably toast if he doesn't. But what I am talking about is his decision to rule out an extension of the transition period at the end of next year if a trade agreement has not been done with the EU. I cannot see the current iteration of the Conservative Party meekly accepting him reneging on that.

    What we need is a trade deal that is so close to what we have in the transitional period that we don't need an extension. I agree that Boris will find that a hard sell but I think he will be trying. The hope is that once we are actually out a lot of the heat and madness goes out of this.
    I’m sure we can have the same deal as that in transition if we pay £350 million a week no problems.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,368

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Philip Hammond facing the inevitability of oblivion today. It is startling to add up what happened to the cabinet May chose to negotiate Brexit. Damien Green, David Lidington, Philip Hammond, Amber Rudd, Justine Greening, David Gauke, no doubt others. It is an incredible changing of the guard and it is hard not to conclude that when May had control exactly the same thing could have happened to the ERG loons who made her life such a misery, if only she had had the courage to take them on.

    Boris got a lot of flak for excluding the 21 from the party but there is no question that the next Tory party, whether in government or out of it, is going to be more cohesive and reliable in its voting.

    I am not sure about that. It will certainly be a lot more right wing, which makes any further Johnson climbdowns in the ongoing negotiations with the EU very tricky indeed. How many would tolerate Johnson reneging on his promise not to extend the transition period, for example?

    I see 3 possible scenarios at the moment. The central one is that Boris wins a modest majority on the back of his deal. The deal goes through the Commons. The second possibility is that Boris wins massively. I still think he does the deal but the risk of some self indulgent nonsense based on no deal or (more likely) an extreme position taken during the transition is a possibility. The third possibility is that he does not get a majority in which case Brexit is dead.

    The deal is done if Johnson wins, of course, and Brexit is probably toast if he doesn't. But what I am talking about is his decision to rule out an extension of the transition period at the end of next year if a trade agreement has not been done with the EU. I cannot see the current iteration of the Conservative Party meekly accepting him reneging on that.

    What we need is a trade deal that is so close to what we have in the transitional period that we don't need an extension. I agree that Boris will find that a hard sell but I think he will be trying. The hope is that once we are actually out a lot of the heat and madness goes out of this.

    I think it will in the country, but not in the Tory party.
    Well, we'll see. As my initial comment pointed out the next Tory party will be much more cohesive than it has been since 2015, arguably since Maastricht. For good or ill we have a winner and the future of the party is clear.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062


    More lies. Where was the unilateral exit in the original plan?

    I don't engage with people who falsely accuse me of lying.
    do you engage with people who correctly accuse you of lying ? :-)

    If I can find any, yes of course.
    I believe youre voting LD so shouldnt be a log wait :smiley:
    Ms Swinson has been doing an excellent job trying to dissuade me from voting LibDem.
    How so, she seems to be doing OK form this ex-Tory's perspective. A little lightweight so far, but no more so than the alternatives.
    She’s a bit lightweight, but compared to the bantamweights Corbo and Bunter, that’s okay. I like her. She seems like a nice lady. She does have the air of a primary school teacher, but that’s mostly the colourful dangly earrings. The opprobrium she attracts on here is bizarre.
    Agreed. I am warming to her.
    She is crap
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,127
    kyf_100 said:

    On topic, if Labour doing this badly in London then they are going to get smashed all over Britain.

    Something something dockside something?
    A fucking gross, misogynistic analogy that you are unwise even to allude to.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    kle4 said:

    So have the Tories started campaigning yet?

    Tomorrow is launch day.
  • Options
    blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    Noo said:

    On topic, if Labour doing this badly in London then they are going to get smashed all over Britain.


    ... in the GE this Thursday. Oh, wait...

    Labour were 18% behind the Tories 37 days before the 2017 GE, just saying.
    You don't think that since 2017, people might just have noticed that flocking to Corbyn simply led to completely fucked up Govt.? And that many, many might not want to repeat that mistake?
    :D:D:D:D
    "Why are these successive Conservative governments so shit?"
    "It's Labour's fault"
    If a few % of voters hadn't stupidly put their trust in Corbyn in 2017, May would have had a majority and got her Deal through with no fuss and no bother. They didn't get their crazy commie in but managed to cripple a sensible Government instead.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,955

    On topic, if Labour doing this badly in London then they are going to get smashed all over Britain.


    ... in the GE this Thursday. Oh, wait...

    Labour were 18% behind the Tories 37 days before the 2017 GE, just saying.
    You don't think that since 2017, people might just have noticed that flocking to Corbyn simply led to completely fucked up Govt.? And that many, many might not want to repeat that mistake?
    That would require a lot of people to accept they made a mistake, rather than, as Benpointer notes, blaming the people who flocked to the other side.

    Which of those options is easier for people to do? I think we know.
  • Options
    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    malcolmg said:

    Cookie said:

    If the Tories do make gains in London - and Wales, and the North - and losses in the home counties - and form a government - then it could be the most geographically balanced party in power we've seen for some time. A lot of ifs there, mind you.

    Especially if they can hold off the SNP too.
    Highly unlikely
    I'm going Tories 6, LDs 5, Labour zero, SNP 48
    What's your thinking this time round?
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,509
    Roger said:

    Which was more costly; Getting Zaghari-Ratcliffe an extended prison sentence by not doing your homework or blaming the dead for being too stupid to get out of Grenfell Tower?

    A close run thing but what they've both got in common is the arrogance of Old Etonians.

    There is nothing wrong with Rees Mogg's comments.
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    kyf_100 said:

    On topic, if Labour doing this badly in London then they are going to get smashed all over Britain.

    Something something dockside something?
    A fucking gross, misogynistic analogy that you are unwise even to allude to.
    No, you're showing your own misogyny, hookers can be men (as well as others points on the LBTQI scale).

    Plus with my experience with sailors, any hole is a goal with them.
  • Options
    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    edited November 2019
    Noo said:

    On topic, if Labour doing this badly in London then they are going to get smashed all over Britain.


    ... in the GE this Thursday. Oh, wait...

    Labour were 18% behind the Tories 37 days before the 2017 GE, just saying.
    You don't think that since 2017, people might just have noticed that flocking to Corbyn simply led to completely fucked up Govt.? And that many, many might not want to repeat that mistake?
    :D:D:D:D
    "Why are these successive Conservative governments so shit?"
    "It's Labour's fault"
    Comedy central perhaps, but it has an element of truth. If a competent Labour Party had coherent policies, the Conservatives would be in electoral oblivion for at least 10 years, maybe 15.

    The Conservative's victory will largely be down to the Labour Party's complete, utter and total ineptness. The current Tory party should be unelectable on any absolute basis, but relative to opposition....
  • Options

    Roger said:

    Which was more costly; Getting Zaghari-Ratcliffe an extended prison sentence by not doing your homework or blaming the dead for being too stupid to get out of Grenfell Tower?

    A close run thing but what they've both got in common is the arrogance of Old Etonians.

    There is nothing wrong with Rees Mogg's comments.
    So why did he apologise?
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "General Election: Jo Swinson has a Facebook problem
    Sky News to investigate how tech is used and misused through the election with Under the Radar project."

    https://news.sky.com/story/general-election-jo-swinson-has-a-facebook-problem-11855013
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    NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    blueblue said:

    Noo said:

    On topic, if Labour doing this badly in London then they are going to get smashed all over Britain.


    ... in the GE this Thursday. Oh, wait...

    Labour were 18% behind the Tories 37 days before the 2017 GE, just saying.
    You don't think that since 2017, people might just have noticed that flocking to Corbyn simply led to completely fucked up Govt.? And that many, many might not want to repeat that mistake?
    :D:D:D:D
    "Why are these successive Conservative governments so shit?"
    "It's Labour's fault"
    If a few % of voters hadn't stupidly put their trust in Corbyn in 2017, May would have had a majority and got her Deal through with no fuss and no bother. They didn't get their crazy commie in but managed to cripple a sensible Government instead.
    :D:D:D:D:D
    This is gold. Pure, pure gold.

    What else can we blame Corbyn for? I see we have rain in some part of the country this bonfire night.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,127
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    So have the Tories started campaigning yet?

    Tomorrow is launch day.
    We wait with bated breath.
  • Options
    tlg86 said:

    Have we checked that @Casino_Royale is okay...

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/nov/05/south-western-railway-staff-to-strike-for-nearly-all-of-december

    Rail workers on one of Britain’s biggest commuter networks, South Western Railway, are set to go on strike for almost all of December.

    The RMT union announced a total of 27 days of action for next month in the long-running dispute over the future role of guards on trains.</>

    tlg86 said:

    Have we checked that @Casino_Royale is okay...

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/nov/05/south-western-railway-staff-to-strike-for-nearly-all-of-december

    Rail workers on one of Britain’s biggest commuter networks, South Western Railway, are set to go on strike for almost all of December.

    The RMT union announced a total of 27 days of action for next month in the long-running dispute over the future role of guards on trains.</>

    tlg86 said:

    Have we checked that @Casino_Royale is okay...

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/nov/05/south-western-railway-staff-to-strike-for-nearly-all-of-december

    Rail workers on one of Britain’s biggest commuter networks, South Western Railway, are set to go on strike for almost all of December.

    The RMT union announced a total of 27 days of action for next month in the long-running dispute over the future role of guards on trains.</>

    Check out the clusterfuck today on train formations - it wasn’t just my service:

    https://twitter.com/CRS_1972/status/1191764000775790592?s=20
  • Options
    XtrainXtrain Posts: 338

    On topic, if Labour doing this badly in London then they are going to get smashed all over Britain.


    ... in the GE this Thursday. Oh, wait...

    Labour were 18% behind the Tories 37 days before the 2017 GE, just saying.
    You don't think that since 2017, people might just have noticed that flocking to Corbyn simply led to completely fucked up Govt.? And that many, many might not want to repeat that mistake?
    Yes I think the floaters wanted to limit May's expected huge majority last time.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,509

    Roger said:

    Which was more costly; Getting Zaghari-Ratcliffe an extended prison sentence by not doing your homework or blaming the dead for being too stupid to get out of Grenfell Tower?

    A close run thing but what they've both got in common is the arrogance of Old Etonians.

    There is nothing wrong with Rees Mogg's comments.
    So why did he apologise?
    That question would be best put to him.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,368

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Philip Hammond facing the inevitability of oblivion today. It is startling to add up what happened to the cabinet May chose to negotiate Brexit. Damien Green, David Lidington, Philip Hammond, Amber Rudd, Justine Greening, David Gauke, no doubt others. It is an incredible changing of the guard and it is hard not to conclude that when May had control exactly the same thing could have happened to the ERG loons who made her life such a misery, if only she had had the courage to take them on.

    Boris got a lot of flak for excluding the 21 from the party but there is no question that the next Tory party, whether in government or out of it, is going to be more cohesive and reliable in its voting.

    I am not sure about that. It will certainly be a lot more right wing, which makes any further Johnson climbdowns in the ongoing negotiations with the EU very tricky indeed. How many would tolerate Johnson reneging on his promise not to extend the transition period, for example?

    I see 3 possible scenarios at the moment. The central one is that Boris wins a modest majority on the back of his deal. The deal goes through the Commons. The second possibility is that Boris wins massively. I still think he does the deal but the risk of some self indulgent nonsense based on no deal or (more likely) an extreme position taken during the transition is a possibility. The third possibility is that he does not get a majority in which case Brexit is dead.
    You think there is zero chance of Brexit winning a second referendum?
    Not zero but vanishingly unlikely. In a second referendum the choice will not be leave or remain but a particular brand of leave against remain. I am not convinced that there was ever a majority for a particular brand of leave as opposed to the principle. Only a small number of idiots led by that idiot Farage (in fairness many other idiots are available) would be sufficient to change what was always a close result.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,955
    edited November 2019

    Roger said:

    Which was more costly; Getting Zaghari-Ratcliffe an extended prison sentence by not doing your homework or blaming the dead for being too stupid to get out of Grenfell Tower?

    A close run thing but what they've both got in common is the arrogance of Old Etonians.

    There is nothing wrong with Rees Mogg's comments.
    He apparently disagrees, if he's apologised. Not much point fighting for the General when he's already thrown in the towell.

    Roger said:

    Which was more costly; Getting Zaghari-Ratcliffe an extended prison sentence by not doing your homework or blaming the dead for being too stupid to get out of Grenfell Tower?

    A close run thing but what they've both got in common is the arrogance of Old Etonians.

    There is nothing wrong with Rees Mogg's comments.
    So why did he apologise?
    That question would be best put to him.
    Sounds like a bad idea. It would just rile up those who don't think he should have.
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    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    edited November 2019

    Just for shits and giggles, what do we think the polling and GE2019 might look like if it were still on for 12th December and...

    (1) The Tories (led by Stewart or Hammond) had campaigned on a 2nd referendum plus Remain platform on the basis of Cameron’s Deal+ (they’d looked at Leave, and couldn’t reach an agreement in the national interest they could in good faith recommend, so were pledging a new vote on a new - improved - Deal inside the EU instead)
    (2) The Lib Dems were still led by Swinson but with no Tory defectors, just from Corbyn’s Labour
    (3) Labour was the same current shitshow
    (4) The Brexit Party was full-on billy bollocks for Brexit and led by Farage, going utterly apeshit about the Tory position
    (5) Sturgeon was still the same and basically trying it on (again) with a 2nd indyref lush

    Thoughts??

    Landslide Tory win, lib dems seeking to replace labour
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Roger said:

    Which was more costly; Getting Zaghari-Ratcliffe an extended prison sentence by not doing your homework or blaming the dead for being too stupid to get out of Grenfell Tower?

    A close run thing but what they've both got in common is the arrogance of Old Etonians.

    There is nothing wrong with Rees Mogg's comments.
    So why did he apologise?
    It was poorly and insensitively stated?
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,127

    kyf_100 said:

    On topic, if Labour doing this badly in London then they are going to get smashed all over Britain.

    Something something dockside something?
    A fucking gross, misogynistic analogy that you are unwise even to allude to.
    No, you're showing your own misogyny, hookers can be men (as well as others points on the LBTQI scale).

    Plus with my experience with sailors, any hole is a goal with them.
    Perhaps in your maritime/metrosexual consciousness. I’m fairly the sure the OP did not conceive of such diversity.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,122

    I'm getting targeted ads telling me only the Tories can beat Corbyn's Labour in Sheffield Hallam

    They obviously know your voting history and read PB
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,611
    Labour have sent me two leaflets. Happy to see how poor their targeting is.
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    RobD said:

    tlg86 said:

    Have we checked that @Casino_Royale is okay...

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/nov/05/south-western-railway-staff-to-strike-for-nearly-all-of-december

    Rail workers on one of Britain’s biggest commuter networks, South Western Railway, are set to go on strike for almost all of December.

    The RMT union announced a total of 27 days of action for next month in the long-running dispute over the future role of guards on trains.</>

    They are going on strike for 27 days in a month? I can see them falling out of favour quite rapidly.
    They won’t. Their members would lose far too much pay.

    It’s a show of union muscle.
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    Swinson needs to be told that Boris has already suspended fracking:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50297164

    I am sure he will start it up again once he has the relevant votes in the bag. After the election, what the voters think will not matter...
    No, fracking is dead. It has been for at least a couple of years, but the government didn't want to face the reality.

    It's a great pity, of course, but politics is the art of the possible. Better to accept the inevitable.
    Why is it dead? Uneconomic?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,955
    Xtrain said:

    On topic, if Labour doing this badly in London then they are going to get smashed all over Britain.


    ... in the GE this Thursday. Oh, wait...

    Labour were 18% behind the Tories 37 days before the 2017 GE, just saying.
    You don't think that since 2017, people might just have noticed that flocking to Corbyn simply led to completely fucked up Govt.? And that many, many might not want to repeat that mistake?
    Yes I think the floaters wanted to limit May's expected huge majority last time.
    And while people are trying to dampen down the triumphalism this time, a majority for the Tories is expected this time, and it really is the last chance for Remain and Leave alike. Those who did not want May to have a majority have just as much reason to go against Boris, possibly more. Just a question of if the push factor of Corbyn is strong enough to overcome that.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,955
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    So have the Tories started campaigning yet?

    Tomorrow is launch day.
    Not sure why that means they've been so quiet so far though.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,509
    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    Which was more costly; Getting Zaghari-Ratcliffe an extended prison sentence by not doing your homework or blaming the dead for being too stupid to get out of Grenfell Tower?

    A close run thing but what they've both got in common is the arrogance of Old Etonians.

    There is nothing wrong with Rees Mogg's comments.
    He apparently disagrees, if he's apologised. Not much point fighting for the General when he's already thrown in the towell.

    Roger said:

    Which was more costly; Getting Zaghari-Ratcliffe an extended prison sentence by not doing your homework or blaming the dead for being too stupid to get out of Grenfell Tower?

    A close run thing but what they've both got in common is the arrogance of Old Etonians.

    There is nothing wrong with Rees Mogg's comments.
    So why did he apologise?
    That question would be best put to him.
    Sounds like a bad idea. It would just rile up those who don't think he should have.
    I didn't realise I was fighting for anyone, I thought I was expressing my opinion.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,955

    I'm getting targeted ads telling me only the Tories can beat Corbyn's Labour in Sheffield Hallam

    So people are allowed to lie in targeted ads I guess.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,368
    nichomar said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Philip Hammond facing the inevitability of oblivion today. It is startling to add up what happened to the cabinet May chose to negotiate Brexit. Damien Green, David Lidington, Philip Hammond, Amber Rudd, Justine Greening, David Gauke, no doubt others. It is an incredible changing of the guard and it is hard not to conclude that when May had control exactly the same thing could have happened to the ERG loons who made her life such a misery, if only she had had the courage to take them on.

    Boris got a lot of flak for excluding the 21 from the party but there is no question that the next Tory party, whether in government or out of it, is going to be more cohesive and reliable in its voting.

    I am not sure about that. It will certainly be a lot more right wing, which makes any further Johnson climbdowns in the ongoing negotiations with the EU very tricky indeed. How many would tolerate Johnson reneging on his promise not to extend the transition period, for example?

    I see 3 possible scenarios at the moment. The central one is that Boris wins a modest majority on the back of his deal. The deal goes through the Commons. The second possibility is that Boris wins massively. I still think he does the deal but the risk of some self indulgent nonsense based on no deal or (more likely) an extreme position taken during the transition is a possibility. The third possibility is that he does not get a majority in which case Brexit is dead.

    The deal is done if Johnson wins, of course, and Brexit is probably toast if he doesn't. But what I am talking about is his decision to rule out an extension of the transition period at the end of next year if a trade agreement has not been done with the EU. I cannot see the current iteration of the Conservative Party meekly accepting him reneging on that.

    What we need is a trade deal that is so close to what we have in the transitional period that we don't need an extension. I agree that Boris will find that a hard sell but I think he will be trying. The hope is that once we are actually out a lot of the heat and madness goes out of this.
    I’m sure we can have the same deal as that in transition if we pay £350 million a week no problems.
    See, that's where May's deal was patently better. Under it we had the right to unlimited access to the SM for the whole of the UK for NOTHING!!!!. It was a huge concession from the EU and we will regret not keeping it.
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    Why is it dead? Uneconomic?

    Just too much opposition.
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    NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Noo said:

    On topic, if Labour doing this badly in London then they are going to get smashed all over Britain.


    ... in the GE this Thursday. Oh, wait...

    Labour were 18% behind the Tories 37 days before the 2017 GE, just saying.
    You don't think that since 2017, people might just have noticed that flocking to Corbyn simply led to completely fucked up Govt.? And that many, many might not want to repeat that mistake?
    :D:D:D:D
    "Why are these successive Conservative governments so shit?"
    "It's Labour's fault"
    Comedy central perhaps, but it has an element of truth. If a competent Labour Party had coherent policies, the Conservatives would be in electoral oblivion for at least 10 years, maybe 15.

    The Conservative's victory will largely be down to the Labour Party's complete, utter and total ineptness. The current Tory party should be unelectable on any absolute basis, but relative to opposition....
    Sorry, but I'll never get over this most plaintive of whines: "if you think the government is shit, blame the people who didn't vote for it!"
    It's a work of tragic beauty. Truly one for the ages.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,955
    HYUFD said:
    Poor Hickenlooper and Klobuchar. Only Buttigieg left in the interesting name stakes.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,119
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    So have the Tories started campaigning yet?

    Tomorrow is launch day.
    Not sure why that means they've been so quiet so far though.
    They probably judge that 2017’s initial onslaught against Corbyn was what helped him to consolidate the opposition, so they want to be more low key this time.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,955
    edited November 2019

    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    Which was more costly; Getting Zaghari-Ratcliffe an extended prison sentence by not doing your homework or blaming the dead for being too stupid to get out of Grenfell Tower?

    A close run thing but what they've both got in common is the arrogance of Old Etonians.

    There is nothing wrong with Rees Mogg's comments.
    He apparently disagrees, if he's apologised. Not much point fighting for the General when he's already thrown in the towell.

    Roger said:

    Which was more costly; Getting Zaghari-Ratcliffe an extended prison sentence by not doing your homework or blaming the dead for being too stupid to get out of Grenfell Tower?

    A close run thing but what they've both got in common is the arrogance of Old Etonians.

    There is nothing wrong with Rees Mogg's comments.
    So why did he apologise?
    That question would be best put to him.
    Sounds like a bad idea. It would just rile up those who don't think he should have.
    I didn't realise I was fighting for anyone, I thought I was expressing my opinion.
    And I didn't realise metaphors have to be taken literally, I thought it was understood they were not.

    The point is even if we think person x's comments were acceptable, if person x says they were not acceptable it does at the least make it a harder argument, even though it does mean it is impossible.
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    eggegg Posts: 1,749
    It feels like proper bunfight between parties in a general election campaign. Arguing over debates. Sneaky Tax. Seems more a referendum on NHS than Brexit?
    Is it just me, or does it no longer feel like Parliament v the People? What happened to the Parliament v the people campaign?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    So have the Tories started campaigning yet?

    Tomorrow is launch day.
    Not sure why that means they've been so quiet so far though.
    I thought it was an agreement between the parties not to interfere with each other's launches.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,401


    More lies. Where was the unilateral exit in the original plan?

    I don't engage with people who falsely accuse me of lying.
    do you engage with people who correctly accuse you of lying ? :-)

    If I can find any, yes of course.
    I believe youre voting LD so shouldnt be a log wait :smiley:
    Ms Swinson has been doing an excellent job trying to dissuade me from voting LibDem.
    How so, she seems to be doing OK form this ex-Tory's perspective. A little lightweight so far, but no more so than the alternatives.
    She’s a bit lightweight, but compared to the bantamweights Corbo and Bunter, that’s okay. I like her. She seems like a nice lady. She does have the air of a primary school teacher, but that’s mostly the colourful dangly earrings. The opprobrium she attracts on here is bizarre.
    Not that bizarre. Most posters on here are pale, male and stale. There is an undercurrent of jealousy, misogyny, and bullying at the prospect of a younger woman as party leader shouting the odds as though she was a normal politician.
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Leaving aside the fuckwittery of Rees Mogg aside, what he said is actually an extremely dangerous position for a minister of the crown to take. In all sorts of areas we the General public rely implicitly on the advice given by the experts in the emergency or the public sector and often their safety and security depends on people listening to that advice and following it.

    The Grenfell residents were clearly let down badly by following the advice, but even there it seems likely that the general advice was and is sound, is was the failure to change the advice in the terrible circumstances of the fire that was most to blame. For a Govt minister to, in effect, say that you should use ‘common sense’ and replace official advice with your own thoughts is incredibly dangerous, and has the potential to cause far more damage in the long run if people learn the “lessons” he is extolling.

    He should resign.
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,596

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Philip Hammond facing the inevitability of oblivion today. It is startling to add up what happened to the cabinet May chose to negotiate Brexit. Damien Green, David Lidington, Philip Hammond, Amber Rudd, Justine Greening, David Gauke, no doubt others. It is an incredible changing of the guard and it is hard not to conclude that when May had control exactly the same thing could have happened to the ERG loons who made her life such a misery, if only she had had the courage to take them on.

    Boris got a lot of flak for excluding the 21 from the party but there is no question that the next Tory party, whether in government or out of it, is going to be more cohesive and reliable in its voting.

    I am not sure about that. It will certainly be a lot more right wing, which makes any further Johnson climbdowns in the ongoing negotiations with the EU very tricky indeed. How many would tolerate Johnson reneging on his promise not to extend the transition period, for example?

    I see 3 possible scenarios at the moment. The central one is that Boris wins a modest majority on the back of his deal. The deal goes through the Commons. The second possibility is that Boris wins massively. I still think he does the deal but the risk of some self indulgent nonsense based on no deal or (more likely) an extreme position taken during the transition is a possibility. The third possibility is that he does not get a majority in which case Brexit is dead.

    The deal is done if Johnson wins, of course, and Brexit is probably toast if he doesn't. But what I am talking about is his decision to rule out an extension of the transition period at the end of next year if a trade agreement has not been done with the EU. I cannot see the current iteration of the Conservative Party meekly accepting him reneging on that.

    There is no point in taking any promises about timetable, no extensions etc. They are best ignored. The certainty is that Boris has no intention of leaving eithetr now or after a transition without a deal and never has had.

This discussion has been closed.