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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » MPs back the deal but block the timetable

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  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    blueblue said:

    Noo said:

    blueblue said:

    Noo said:

    blueblue said:

    SunnyJim said:

    Danny565 said:

    Not just votes at 16, there's probably a majority in the Commons to give votes to EU citizens as well.

    That would boost the Tories by another few percent when they promise to repeal votes at 16 and votes for EU citizens.
    It would be an almost unbelievable piece of vote-rigging. The Tories could run most of their campaign on telling the existing electorate that the opposition wants to dilute their votes because they know they can't win any other way.
    Why don't you think EU citizens would vote Conservative? Quite a few of the people I work with from EU countries have voted Conservative in local and Holyrood elections.
    Whatever their normal political leanings, the great majority of them are hardly likely to vote Conservative if that means the UK leaving the EU, are they?
    Why wouldn't they be? Do you think EU citizens living here are going to suffer from the UK leaving the EU?
    You do like being utterly disingenuous, don't you?
    It's a perfectly innocent question. If EU citizens already living here are going to be fine, then they should be as equally in favour of leaving the EU as UK citizens.
    If they aren't, then perhaps giving them the vote ought to be an important counterweight to what is being done to them.

    Conservatives used to believe in giving folk personal responsibility. I can't fathom why that idea doesn't translate into given them votes.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    Pulpstar said:

    So, do we think there'll be tough but arguably very necessary social care reforms in the Tory manifesto again ?

    Of course. It'll say that they believe there to be serious issues that need resolving, and they plan to resolve them, the end.

    I seem to recall the LD manifesto was a little more detailed than the Labour one on the same area last time, but not by much.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sky News breaking news:

    "A No.10 source says that the government will push for a general election if a Brexit extension is agreed".
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    GIN1138 said:

    GE is 12.12.19 imo

    Normally 7am - 10pm

    Not for 1 second around lunchtime
    School kids to vote in their lunch hour!

    I would also tack on compulsory voting.
    I wouldn't mind compulsory voting as long as there's a "None Of The Above" option - which is why it'll never happen as "None Of The Above" would win a landslide every time. ;)
    Thanks for your support but I am not planning on standing.
    To be honest I think we should have NOTA on voting now. Make a world of difference I think and encourage better candidates.
    What would be the practical effect of NOTA winning the vote?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794
    Carnyx said:

    viewcode said:

    Carnyx said:

    Freggles said:

    I see Tory Swinsons number one choice was congratulating Jester and saying if bill given 7 days rather than 3 he would vote for it.

    Tory Swinson really doesn't have a clue

    Tory Swinson is still better than Jeremy Corbyn.
    But a vote for Tory Swinson leads to PM Jestet and hard BREXIT.

    It's either PM Jester or Jezza and a 2nd Referendum
    I’m voting for Tory Swinson regardless.
    You aren't that bothered about stopping BREXIT or a 2nd Referendum then.

    What's Tory Swinsons other policies BTW?
    Oh BJO, I remember when we used to post daily YouGov polls with Red Ed winning and the words "tick tock".

    I thought you learned the perils of being hyper partisan from the 2015 experience
    Never used tick tock in any post ever.

    EICIPM was me.
    You have (see above).
    ??

    EICIPM was so 2015

    Tory Swinson is the new EICIPM
    What doies the acronym mean, please?
    Ed (Milliband) Is Crap Is Prime Minister.

    Prior to 2015 many of the polls were showing Labour leads (ask your mother), and criticism of Ed Miliband (the then-Labour leader at a time where Jews weren't hounded from the party) was inevitably met with a retort of "EICIPM"
    Thank you - I had retreated from PB at that time. You may be thinking of someone else, not that it matters at all - my late mother's ideas of Labour were founded on the likes of Harold Wilson and Wedgie Benn (with utter horror).
    I was trying to be funny. The saying "oh, ask your mother" is a humorous way of saying that something happened a long time ago. My use of the phrase was meant to emphasise the fact that the time of Labour leads was many years ago.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    edited October 2019
    AndyJS said:

    Sky News breaking news:

    "A No.10 source says that the government will push for a general election if a Brexit extension is agreed".

    FFS, that is already government policy. Do that but also try to push your legislation through while you're still there if you care about it.

    I really get the impression the Tories have lost their bottle in parliament, and after days of momentum are now scared they don't have the votes to get it through.

    Because that's key for me - they said they felt they had the votes to pass it, and if they were not lying still think that. OBviously they are very upset that they will face an extension, but if they want to pass it, and have the votes to pass it, why are they not passing it?

    At least May could argue she didn't have the votes to pass anything she might negotiate, as despite a slim majority she had enough ERGers and Grievers that it would have been a struggle. But Boris, with fewer MPs, says he can pass it, so doesn't need a GE to do that.
  • Pulpstar said:

    So, do we think there'll be tough but arguably very necessary social care reforms in the Tory manifesto again ?

    I'm more curious as to whether there will be easy and very necessary university tuition fee reforms in the Tory manifesto.
  • AndyJS said:

    Sky News breaking news:

    "A No.10 source says that the government will push for a general election if a Brexit extension is agreed".

    Looks like a November/early 2019 GE

    Good for those who called it
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    AndyJS said:

    Cummings' strategy is working. The average Tory lead is now 11% in the opinion polls compared to about 5% a few weeks ago.

    Listening to "Newsnight" a few minutes ago (desperate, I know), one of the talking heads there commented that Corbyn had dodged a bullet when he refused to allow Johnson a general election a month or two ago.

    I think not, for the reason you state. Johnson's lead in the polls has grown in the meantime and an election now looks inevitable whatever Labour do.

    It's a bit like the Lib Dems in the period 2010-15, when they dared not pull the plug on the coalition for fear that they would be decimated in an early GE. They just carried on, hoping that something would turn up, only to find that things worked out worse than their worst nightmares when finally they had to face the music in 2015.
  • BTW does anyone know when Widdywoman became a Faragist ?

    I don't recall her being a EUsceptic in previous decades.

    Has she had another religious experience ?
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    Noo said:

    blueblue said:

    Noo said:

    blueblue said:

    Noo said:

    blueblue said:

    SunnyJim said:

    Danny565 said:

    Not just votes at 16, there's probably a majority in the Commons to give votes to EU citizens as well.

    That would boost the Tories by another few percent when they promise to repeal votes at 16 and votes for EU citizens.
    It would be an almost unbelievable piece of vote-rigging. The Tories could run most of their campaign on telling the existing electorate that the opposition wants to dilute their votes because they know they can't win any other way.
    Why don't you think EU citizens would vote Conservative? Quite a few of the people I work with from EU countries have voted Conservative in local and Holyrood elections.
    Whatever their normal political leanings, the great majority of them are hardly likely to vote Conservative if that means the UK leaving the EU, are they?
    Why wouldn't they be? Do you think EU citizens living here are going to suffer from the UK leaving the EU?
    You do like being utterly disingenuous, don't you?
    It's a perfectly innocent question. If EU citizens already living here are going to be fine, then they should be as equally in favour of leaving the EU as UK citizens.
    If they aren't, then perhaps giving them the vote ought to be an important counterweight to what is being done to them.

    Conservatives used to believe in giving folk personal responsibility. I can't fathom why that idea doesn't translate into given them votes.
    Because they are not citizens of this country. If they wish to be, they can follow the prescribed procedure to become citizens and thus gain the right to vote.

    I know you subscribe to the utopian fantasy that all residents should have votes, but as has been discussed on here before very few places in the entire world hand out voting rights as if they were sweeties.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Noo said:

    So tonight johnson will speak to Varadkar, Macron and Merkel and theyll tell him what extension is getting given, he will tell them when he thinks he can get it through and tomorrow we will have a clearer picture.
    Smart money is Jan 31 flexitension with 15, 30, 15, 31, 15, 31 offered as exit dates

    31st December? That is not a good idea.
    Why not?

    (Setting aside that exit is not a good idea full stop!)
    Someone may have already answered but there is a huge amount of money flowing around due to year end balance sheets

    Add in options expiry and the financial sector is already stressed so don’t distract with another issue
  • Noo said:

    blueblue said:

    Noo said:

    blueblue said:

    Noo said:

    blueblue said:

    SunnyJim said:

    Danny565 said:

    Not just votes at 16, there's probably a majority in the Commons to give votes to EU citizens as well.

    That would boost the Tories by another few percent when they promise to repeal votes at 16 and votes for EU citizens.
    It would be an almost unbelievable piece of vote-rigging. The Tories could run most of their campaign on telling the existing electorate that the opposition wants to dilute their votes because they know they can't win any other way.
    Why don't you think EU citizens would vote Conservative? Quite a few of the people I work with from EU countries have voted Conservative in local and Holyrood elections.
    Whatever their normal political leanings, the great majority of them are hardly likely to vote Conservative if that means the UK leaving the EU, are they?
    Why wouldn't they be? Do you think EU citizens living here are going to suffer from the UK leaving the EU?
    You do like being utterly disingenuous, don't you?
    It's a perfectly innocent question. If EU citizens already living here are going to be fine, then they should be as equally in favour of leaving the EU as UK citizens.
    If they aren't, then perhaps giving them the vote ought to be an important counterweight to what is being done to them.

    Conservatives used to believe in giving folk personal responsibility. I can't fathom why that idea doesn't translate into given them votes.
    If they wish to be given the right to vote they should take on the responsibility of British citizenship.

    In the past 3 months I have stood referee for three 3 friends - two Polish and a Vietnamese - who wished to show their commitment to the UK by becoming British citizens. I was immensely proud to be asked to do so. I am pretty sure that given the chance the two Polish friends would vote to Remain in the EU but that doesn't matter. I love the fact they wish to commit to being British (actually in two of the three cases being Scottish if that is the way the Indy referendum goes)
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    edited October 2019

    GIN1138 said:

    GE is 12.12.19 imo

    Normally 7am - 10pm

    Not for 1 second around lunchtime
    School kids to vote in their lunch hour!

    I would also tack on compulsory voting.
    I wouldn't mind compulsory voting as long as there's a "None Of The Above" option - which is why it'll never happen as "None Of The Above" would win a landslide every time. ;)
    Thanks for your support but I am not planning on standing.
    To be honest I think we should have NOTA on voting now. Make a world of difference I think and encourage better candidates.
    What would be the practical effect of NOTA winning the vote?
    In an individual constituency? A new slate of candidates has to be put up. Rinse and repeat.

    At the moment I’m sure in many constituencies the least worst candidate wins and wins by default. The assumption someone *must*win can’t be a good thing.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    BTW does anyone know when Widdywoman became a Faragist ?

    I don't recall her being a EUsceptic in previous decades.

    Has she had another religious experience ?

    The funniest thing is she used to be a diehard supporter of Ken Clarke in his bids for the leadership.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    AndyJS said:

    Newsnight: Sky News have launched a Brexit-free YouTube channel:

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=jFWp2aZklHk

    Could we have a Brexit-free PB as well? One day? Please?
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    AndyJS said:

    Cummings' strategy is working. The average Tory lead is now 11% in the opinion polls compared to about 5% a few weeks ago.

    Listening to "Newsnight" a few minutes ago (desperate, I know), one of the talking heads there commented that Corbyn had dodged a bullet when he refused to allow Johnson a general election a month or two ago.

    I think not, for the reason you state. Johnson's lead in the polls has grown in the meantime and an election now looks inevitable whatever Labour do.

    It's a bit like the Lib Dems in the period 2010-15, when they dared not pull the plug on the coalition for fear that they would be decimated in an early GE. They just carried on, hoping that something would turn up, only to find that things worked out worse than their worst nightmares when finally they had to face the music in 2015.
    The country dodged a bullet, because it looked a lot like Boris was trying to "achieve" no deal. The opposition parties did exactly the right thing in keeping him from dismissing parliament during that crucial time.
    We needed MPs to keep our PM in check.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    My eldest Grand Daughter is 16 on 12.12.19.

    She loves Jezza.

    Honest question - why? I don't doubt the popularity of Labour and Jezza with young people, but what is it about him that she finds so appealing? He's got an amount of gravitas, at times, but he's not a superb speaker, plenty of others say similar things, what quality does he have that she adores so much?
    Think she wants an end to people using food banks and sleeping in shop doorways and likes the sound of council houses and not wasting money on wars and Labours Green Deal and the fact that he would ban fracking.

    Apart from that not sure.
    Yes, but that's a reason to support him and his policies. Why the love? I can understand why people would get fired up by a poltical leader and their policies, but its the adoration I do not understand, particularly when plenty of others within the same movement support the same things and may have other beneficial qualities. Yes he is the leader and that gives a boost, but he's not some unique christ like figure.

    I'd ask, and have asked, the same question about people adorating leaders on the right as well.
    Think it's the fact he is so comfortable talking to ordinary people and never personal about opponents.

    I will ask her tomorrow.
    "Darling, a strange man on the internet wants me to ask you about Mr Corbyn..." :)
    I wont describe you as strange.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited October 2019

    AndyJS said:

    Cummings' strategy is working. The average Tory lead is now 11% in the opinion polls compared to about 5% a few weeks ago.

    Listening to "Newsnight" a few minutes ago (desperate, I know), one of the talking heads there commented that Corbyn had dodged a bullet when he refused to allow Johnson a general election a month or two ago.

    I think not, for the reason you state. Johnson's lead in the polls has grown in the meantime and an election now looks inevitable whatever Labour do.

    It's a bit like the Lib Dems in the period 2010-15, when they dared not pull the plug on the coalition for fear that they would be decimated in an early GE. They just carried on, hoping that something would turn up, only to find that things worked out worse than their worst nightmares when finally they had to face the music in 2015.
    They couldn't have foreseen that Boris would achieve a deal. They were blinded by their hatred for him and so bought into their own propaganda about his uselessness that they completely underestimated him, thinking they'd just leave him to stew. Their fox is now shot.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,926
    Re Air New Zealand

    That's disastrous news :disappointed:

    Air New Zealand was the best value business class from London to LAX. You could often get returns for under £3,000. And it was really good too.

    I'm completely gutted.

    Worse, this means that prices for other airlines will rise as capacity is taken out of the market.
  • kle4 said:

    My mate's lad has just turned 17 and is an apprentice sparky, earning about 4 quid an hour. Why shouldn't he be allowed a say in how the country is run?

    Because he is under the legal voting age.

    Listen, I've got a niece who's very bright, has strong views, wise before her years. She's 8 - should we give her the vote too? Tell you what, how about you can vote from any age, and go into the booth marking an X with your favourite colour crayon?

    Your mate's lad is a year or less off being able to vote. He can wait that long.
    People bring up joining the army at this point, and various other things, but all it really says is we are inconsistent in our attitude to young people and what age we think they can and cannot do things, or should not be allowed to do things.

    Definitely there should be more consistency in approach, and for me the question is whether on balance we treat people aged 16-17 as children and think that is the right approach, or whether on balance we think of them as adults and treat them as such. What we shouldn't do is treat them like children one day on one issue and then like adults the next day on another issue, so once we settle if we think they are children or adults, we can adjust the rules on various things up or down depending on that.
    The obvious question to me is whether you would be happy to have a 16 year old signing contracts, sitting in judgement on you in a jury or making decisions about your money.

    Personally I think 18 is the right age for all these things and hence think that is also the right age for have the right to vote.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    edited October 2019

    AndyJS said:

    Sky News breaking news:

    "A No.10 source says that the government will push for a general election if a Brexit extension is agreed".

    Looks like a November/early 2019 GE

    Good for those who called it
    Early 2019??
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    I bet Cummings can't believe his luck with talk of votes for 16 year-olds and EU citizens. He'll be praying the opposition is actually stupid enough to do it.

    Labour seem determined to self-immolate.

  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    rcs1000 said:

    Re Air New Zealand

    That's disastrous news :disappointed:

    Air New Zealand was the best value business class from London to LAX. You could often get returns for under £3,000. And it was really good too.

    I'm completely gutted.

    Worse, this means that prices for other airlines will rise as capacity is taken out of the market.

    Has Corbyn announced he’ll nationalise them to protect jobs?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231
    Noo said:

    blueblue said:

    Noo said:

    blueblue said:

    Noo said:

    blueblue said:

    SunnyJim said:

    Danny565 said:

    Not just votes at 16, there's probably a majority in the Commons to give votes to EU citizens as well.

    That would boost the Tories by another few percent when they promise to repeal votes at 16 and votes for EU citizens.
    It would be an almost unbelievable piece of vote-rigging. The Tories could run most of their campaign on telling the existing electorate that the opposition wants to dilute their votes because they know they can't win any other way.
    Why don't you think EU citizens would vote Conservative? Quite a few of the people I work with from EU countries have voted Conservative in local and Holyrood elections.
    Whatever their normal political leanings, the great majority of them are hardly likely to vote Conservative if that means the UK leaving the EU, are they?
    Why wouldn't they be? Do you think EU citizens living here are going to suffer from the UK leaving the EU?
    You do like being utterly disingenuous, don't you?
    It's a perfectly innocent question. If EU citizens already living here are going to be fine, then they should be as equally in favour of leaving the EU as UK citizens.
    If they aren't, then perhaps giving them the vote ought to be an important counterweight to what is being done to them.

    Conservatives used to believe in giving folk personal responsibility. I can't fathom why that idea doesn't translate into given them votes.
    Nothing is being done to them. The country they live in is going through some political changes. I lived in France for a short while. If the political status of France had changed in that time, I'd have dealt with the ramifications, not made it into some weepy X-factor vt.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    Enough excitement for one day.

    7 days to heart bypass assessment appointment.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    edited October 2019
    Quite amusing - Newnight 4-1 Remainer panel tearing their hair out that Boris isn't being punished by the electorate for us not leaving on 31st October! :D
  • Noo said:

    blueblue said:

    Noo said:

    blueblue said:

    Noo said:

    blueblue said:

    SunnyJim said:

    Danny565 said:

    Not just votes at 16, there's probably a majority in the Commons to give votes to EU citizens as well.

    That would boost the Tories by another few percent when they promise to repeal votes at 16 and votes for EU citizens.
    It would be an almost unbelievable piece of vote-rigging. The Tories could run most of their campaign on telling the existing electorate that the opposition wants to dilute their votes because they know they can't win any other way.
    Why don't you think EU citizens would vote Conservative? Quite a few of the people I work with from EU countries have voted Conservative in local and Holyrood elections.
    Whatever their normal political leanings, the great majority of them are hardly likely to vote Conservative if that means the UK leaving the EU, are they?
    Why wouldn't they be? Do you think EU citizens living here are going to suffer from the UK leaving the EU?
    You do like being utterly disingenuous, don't you?
    It's a perfectly innocent question. If EU citizens already living here are going to be fine, then they should be as equally in favour of leaving the EU as UK citizens.
    If they aren't, then perhaps giving them the vote ought to be an important counterweight to what is being done to them.

    Conservatives used to believe in giving folk personal responsibility. I can't fathom why that idea doesn't translate into given them votes.
    If they wish to be given the right to vote they should take on the responsibility of British citizenship.

    In the past 3 months I have stood referee for three 3 friends - two Polish and a Vietnamese - who wished to show their commitment to the UK by becoming British citizens. I was immensely proud to be asked to do so. I am pretty sure that given the chance the two Polish friends would vote to Remain in the EU but that doesn't matter. I love the fact they wish to commit to being British (actually in two of the three cases being Scottish if that is the way the Indy referendum goes)
    What are the additonal responsibilities of British citizenship compared to a British resident.

    Voting
    Eligible for conscription in a war? Not going to happen with modern warfare.
    Anything else?

    So they shouldnt be able to vote as they havent taken on the responsibility of the right to vote.....

  • Enough excitement for one day.

    7 days to heart bypass assessment appointment.

    Oh. I do hope you receive good news BJO. All the best
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    blueblue said:

    AndyJS said:

    Newsnight: Sky News have launched a Brexit-free YouTube channel:

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=jFWp2aZklHk

    Could we have a Brexit-free PB as well? One day? Please?
    Yeah, we can talk about AV instead.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    GIN1138 said:

    Quite amusing - Newnight 5-1 Remainer panel tearing their hair out that Boris isn't being punished by the electorate for us not leaving on 31st October! :D

    It's almost like voters can see through the remainiacs tactics.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    Sky News breaking news:

    "A No.10 source says that the government will push for a general election if a Brexit extension is agreed".

    Looks like a November/early 2019 GE

    Good for those who called it
    A November election is 30 / 90 on Betfair Exchange.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.154849135
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637

    Enough excitement for one day.

    7 days to heart bypass assessment appointment.

    Oh. I do hope you receive good news BJO. All the best
    Ta goodnight Big G sleep tight.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,825
    AndyJS said:

    Sky News breaking news:

    "A No.10 source says that the government will push for a general election if a Brexit extension is agreed".

    Labour were saying they'd go for one if there was an extension.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    edited October 2019

    Enough excitement for one day.

    7 days to heart bypass assessment appointment.

    Hope your appointment goes well BJO. :)
  • Enough excitement for one day.

    7 days to heart bypass assessment appointment.

    Oh. I do hope you receive good news BJO. All the best
    Ta goodnight Big G sleep tight.
    And you BJO
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited October 2019

    AndyJS said:

    Sky News breaking news:

    "A No.10 source says that the government will push for a general election if a Brexit extension is agreed".

    Looks like a November/early 2019 GE

    Good for those who called it
    Pundits on Twitter saying 28th Nov, 5th Dec or January.

    The latter would provide the novelty of an election campaign over Christmas. Happy Holidays.....
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    The Benn Act already has the fiexible extension available as it says you can terminate it earlier if the deal is ratified.

  • kle4 said:

    My mate's lad has just turned 17 and is an apprentice sparky, earning about 4 quid an hour. Why shouldn't he be allowed a say in how the country is run?

    Because he is under the legal voting age.

    Listen, I've got a niece who's very bright, has strong views, wise before her years. She's 8 - should we give her the vote too? Tell you what, how about you can vote from any age, and go into the booth marking an X with your favourite colour crayon?

    Your mate's lad is a year or less off being able to vote. He can wait that long.
    People bring up joining the army at this point, and various other things, but all it really says is we are inconsistent in our attitude to young people and what age we think they can and cannot do things, or should not be allowed to do things.

    Definitely there should be more consistency in approach, and for me the question is whether on balance we treat people aged 16-17 as children and think that is the right approach, or whether on balance we think of them as adults and treat them as such. What we shouldn't do is treat them like children one day on one issue and then like adults the next day on another issue, so once we settle if we think they are children or adults, we can adjust the rules on various things up or down depending on that.
    The obvious question to me is whether you would be happy to have a 16 year old signing contracts, sitting in judgement on you in a jury or making decisions about your money.

    Personally I think 18 is the right age for all these things and hence think that is also the right age for have the right to vote.
    I wouldnt be happy with a 55 year old bank manager looking after my money, nor a 35 year old financial advisor.

    The best argument for 18 is simply there has to be a cut off somewhere and 18 is the status quo and no better or worse than 16 or 17.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    If they wish to be given the right to vote they should take on the responsibility of British citizenship.

    In the past 3 months I have stood referee for three 3 friends - two Polish and a Vietnamese - who wished to show their commitment to the UK by becoming British citizens. I was immensely proud to be asked to do so. I am pretty sure that given the chance the two Polish friends would vote to Remain in the EU but that doesn't matter. I love the fact they wish to commit to being British (actually in two of the three cases being Scottish if that is the way the Indy referendum goes)

    Yes, we've been over this conversation before.
    I'm trying to get my shovel under this idea that giving EU citizens the vote is somehow "rigging" elections; I have spoken before about the immigrants I know in the UK, folk from Venezuela, Lithuania, Romania, Czech Republic. These are people who are not going to vote Labour, because they know something about politics from their own past in those countries. I do also know immigrants who would vote Labour.

    I respect but reject your argument for making certain people jump through a difficult series of hoops before they vote, but it's a bit of a tangent to the main point I was making, that it's wrong that you can rely on EU citizens to vote a certain way, and even if it were that is then an argument against them being allowed to vote. Your arguments are separate from that point, so I'll leave them to stand for themselves.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    Floater said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Quite amusing - Newnight 5-1 Remainer panel tearing their hair out that Boris isn't being punished by the electorate for us not leaving on 31st October! :D

    It's almost like voters can see through the remainiacs tactics.
    I think Letwin on Saturday sealed the deal with BJ being deliberately and vindictively cornered. May extending by choice is completely different to Johnson being compelled against his will. The more they push the more they get further away from their goal of neutralising him.


  • What are the additonal responsibilities of British citizenship compared to a British resident.

    Voting
    Eligible for conscription in a war? Not going to happen with modern warfare.
    Anything else?

    So they shouldnt be able to vote as they havent taken on the responsibility of the right to vote.....

    Jury service is the immediate one I can think of.

    But the important point is that they are showing a commitment to remaining in Britain and making their lives here. The long term well being of our country now becomes part of their responsibility rather than just short term personal advantage.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sky News breaking news:

    "A No.10 source says that the government will push for a general election if a Brexit extension is agreed".

    Looks like a November/early 2019 GE

    Good for those who called it
    A November election is 30 / 90 on Betfair Exchange.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.154849135
    A November election needs to be called by Thursday.

    December is possible but even that requires a 2/3rd vote otherwise we are rapidly into late December and very quickly into early January.
  • Enough excitement for one day.

    7 days to heart bypass assessment appointment.

    Hope it all goes well Big John.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,825

    Enough excitement for one day.

    7 days to heart bypass assessment appointment.

    Oh. I do hope you receive good news BJO. All the best
    Ta goodnight Big G sleep tight.
    Hope it goes well BJO!!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Scott_P said:

    Amazing the 3 letters thing didn't work...

    You’re assuming it was to influence the EU...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,825
    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:

    Amazing the 3 letters thing didn't work...

    You’re assuming it was to influence the EU...
    Yeah - the other letter was for domestic consumption. And it appears to have worked in that respect.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    eek said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sky News breaking news:

    "A No.10 source says that the government will push for a general election if a Brexit extension is agreed".

    Looks like a November/early 2019 GE

    Good for those who called it
    A November election is 30 / 90 on Betfair Exchange.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.154849135
    A November election needs to be called by Thursday.

    December is possible but even that requires a 2/3rd vote otherwise we are rapidly into late December and very quickly into early January.
    I can't see an election campaign starting in the middle of December in order to hold it in the middle of January.
  • Noo said:

    If they wish to be given the right to vote they should take on the responsibility of British citizenship.

    In the past 3 months I have stood referee for three 3 friends - two Polish and a Vietnamese - who wished to show their commitment to the UK by becoming British citizens. I was immensely proud to be asked to do so. I am pretty sure that given the chance the two Polish friends would vote to Remain in the EU but that doesn't matter. I love the fact they wish to commit to being British (actually in two of the three cases being Scottish if that is the way the Indy referendum goes)

    Yes, we've been over this conversation before.
    I'm trying to get my shovel under this idea that giving EU citizens the vote is somehow "rigging" elections; I have spoken before about the immigrants I know in the UK, folk from Venezuela, Lithuania, Romania, Czech Republic. These are people who are not going to vote Labour, because they know something about politics from their own past in those countries. I do also know immigrants who would vote Labour.

    I respect but reject your argument for making certain people jump through a difficult series of hoops before they vote, but it's a bit of a tangent to the main point I was making, that it's wrong that you can rely on EU citizens to vote a certain way, and even if it were that is then an argument against them being allowed to vote. Your arguments are separate from that point, so I'll leave them to stand for themselves.
    That s fair enough. I was arguing purely on the ethics of giving non citizens the vote rather than the practical effects on any individual election.

    Though I would of course point out that giving 3 million people the vote in a referendum when in all likelihood they are not interested in the long term effects of that vote, merely the next few years before they then go home, does seem a bit off.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Noo said:

    blueblue said:

    Noo said:

    blueblue said:

    Noo said:

    blueblue said:

    SunnyJim said:

    Danny565 said:

    Not just votes at 16, there's probably a majority in the Commons to give votes to EU citizens as well.

    That would boost the Tories by another few percent when they promise to repeal votes at 16 and votes for EU citizens.
    It would be an almost unbelievable piece of vote-rigging. The Tories could run most of their campaign on telling the existing electorate that the opposition wants to dilute their votes because they know they can't win any other way.
    Why don't you think EU citizens would vote Conservative? Quite a few of the people I work with from EU countries have voted Conservative in local and Holyrood elections.
    Whatever their normal political leanings, the great majority of them are hardly likely to vote Conservative if that means the UK leaving the EU, are they?
    Why wouldn't they be? Do you think EU citizens living here are going to suffer from the UK leaving the EU?
    You do like being utterly disingenuous, don't you?
    It's a perfectly innocent question. If EU citizens already living here are going to be fine, then they should be as equally in favour of leaving the EU as UK citizens.
    If they aren't, then perhaps giving them the vote ought to be an important counterweight to what is being done to them.

    Conservatives used to believe in giving folk personal responsibility. I can't fathom why that idea doesn't translate into given them votes.
    Nothing is being done to them. The country they live in is going through some political changes. I lived in France for a short while. If the political status of France had changed in that time, I'd have dealt with the ramifications, not made it into some weepy X-factor vt.
    Passing out drunk in the toilets of a hypermarket isn't "living in France".

    And in point of fact, I was offering up the idea of stuff being "done to them" as a choice of two things. If you assert that nothing is being "done to them", then you are saying that they won't suffer from these changes. That's my challenge to you now: tell me that EU citizens in the UK aren't going to suffer from the UK leaving the EU.


  • What are the additonal responsibilities of British citizenship compared to a British resident.

    Voting
    Eligible for conscription in a war? Not going to happen with modern warfare.
    Anything else?

    So they shouldnt be able to vote as they havent taken on the responsibility of the right to vote.....

    Jury service is the immediate one I can think of.

    But the important point is that they are showing a commitment to remaining in Britain and making their lives here. The long term well being of our country now becomes part of their responsibility rather than just short term personal advantage.
    Jury service is an obligation for EU nationals who are long term residents in the UK. http://www.zenithchambers.co.uk/current-awareness/crime/is-it-possible-for-foreigners-to-sit-on-an-english-jury

    Do you think UK nationals who live abroad for a lengthy period of time should have the right to vote here? I just find it hard to accept that someone who has lived in the country for 20 years plus and chosen to move here, has shown less of a commitment to the country than someone else, who has a UK passport from an accident of birth and chooses to live elsewhere!
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875

    Floater said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Quite amusing - Newnight 5-1 Remainer panel tearing their hair out that Boris isn't being punished by the electorate for us not leaving on 31st October! :D

    It's almost like voters can see through the remainiacs tactics.
    I think Letwin on Saturday sealed the deal with BJ being deliberately and vindictively cornered. May extending by choice is completely different to Johnson being compelled against his will. The more they push the more they get further away from their goal of neutralising him.
    It's almost as if the electorate can see the Remain Bloc placing not just a thumb on the scales, but loading several sumo wrestlers onto it...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    edited October 2019
    eek said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sky News breaking news:

    "A No.10 source says that the government will push for a general election if a Brexit extension is agreed".

    Looks like a November/early 2019 GE

    Good for those who called it
    A November election is 30 / 90 on Betfair Exchange.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.154849135
    A November election needs to be called by Thursday.

    December is possible but even that requires a 2/3rd vote otherwise we are rapidly into late December and very quickly into early January.
    I expect Boris to call it immediately he receives Tusk letter confirming a flexi extension to 31st January. As that is likely tomorrow Boris calls it on Thursday and GE on 28th November

    And Boris campaign will be elect me and we leave the EU on the 31st December. Clear and no prevarication. Powerful message
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320

    Floater said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Quite amusing - Newnight 5-1 Remainer panel tearing their hair out that Boris isn't being punished by the electorate for us not leaving on 31st October! :D

    It's almost like voters can see through the remainiacs tactics.
    I think Letwin on Saturday sealed the deal with BJ being deliberately and vindictively cornered. May extending by choice is completely different to Johnson being compelled against his will. The more they push the more they get further away from their goal of neutralising him.
    May was also compelled against her will. She was just more dignified about it.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    AndyJS said:

    eek said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sky News breaking news:

    "A No.10 source says that the government will push for a general election if a Brexit extension is agreed".

    Looks like a November/early 2019 GE

    Good for those who called it
    A November election is 30 / 90 on Betfair Exchange.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.154849135
    A November election needs to be called by Thursday.

    December is possible but even that requires a 2/3rd vote otherwise we are rapidly into late December and very quickly into early January.
    I can't see an election campaign starting in the middle of December in order to hold it in the middle of January.
    I know - the FTPA is going to screw up elections unless things are done very rapidly.

    But the election campaigning wouldn't start in December - it would kick off as soon as the vote was held (or 14 days later if it's a VoNC).
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780

    Votes at sixteen isn't ambitious enough. I'd like to see votes from birth - but exercised by proxy by the mother until the child claims their vote by writing a letter to the returning officer to do so.

    Yes to the principle, which is that MPs should govern in the interest of all citizens, which means representing all equally amongst the electorate rather than ignoring those aged 0 to 17.

    In terms of practicalities, I would favour the child taking over the right to vote for themselves only at an age when they were deemed responsible enough, that is 18 or perhaps 16 but not before. Also, where both parents were living together, the father would be given the voting rights for boys, and the mother the voting rights for girls. Where children were living at an address where only one parent was registered to vote, that parent would vote for all of them.

    An interim step would be to equalise constituency sizes based on ONS estimates for the whole population, rather than just those aged 18+ who bother to register.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    Floater said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Quite amusing - Newnight 5-1 Remainer panel tearing their hair out that Boris isn't being punished by the electorate for us not leaving on 31st October! :D

    It's almost like voters can see through the remainiacs tactics.
    I think Letwin on Saturday sealed the deal with BJ being deliberately and vindictively cornered. May extending by choice is completely different to Johnson being compelled against his will. The more they push the more they get further away from their goal of neutralising him.
    May was also compelled against her will. She was just more dignified about it.
    Well not compelled by newly made laws designed specifically for her.


  • What are the additonal responsibilities of British citizenship compared to a British resident.

    Voting
    Eligible for conscription in a war? Not going to happen with modern warfare.
    Anything else?

    So they shouldnt be able to vote as they havent taken on the responsibility of the right to vote.....

    Jury service is the immediate one I can think of.

    But the important point is that they are showing a commitment to remaining in Britain and making their lives here. The long term well being of our country now becomes part of their responsibility rather than just short term personal advantage.
    Jury service is an obligation for EU nationals who are long term residents in the UK. http://www.zenithchambers.co.uk/current-awareness/crime/is-it-possible-for-foreigners-to-sit-on-an-english-jury

    Do you think UK nationals who live abroad for a lengthy period of time should have the right to vote here? I just find it hard to accept that someone who has lived in the country for 20 years plus and chosen to move here, has shown less of a commitment to the country than someone else, who has a UK passport from an accident of birth and chooses to live elsewhere!
    No I don't think they should. They should take out citizenship of the country in which they are living and vote there.

  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Trump -7% approval in recent poll.

    Doesn't sound much …….. until you see it's a Rasmussen.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    I wonder if Corbyn will table a VoNC early tomorrow to beat Boris to the punch.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664

    eek said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sky News breaking news:

    "A No.10 source says that the government will push for a general election if a Brexit extension is agreed".

    Looks like a November/early 2019 GE

    Good for those who called it
    A November election is 30 / 90 on Betfair Exchange.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.154849135
    A November election needs to be called by Thursday.

    December is possible but even that requires a 2/3rd vote otherwise we are rapidly into late December and very quickly into early January.
    I expect Boris to call it immediately he receives Tusk letter confirming a flexi extension to 31st January. As that is likely tomorrow Boris calls it on Thursday and GE on 28th November

    And Boris campaign will be elect me and we leave the EU on the 31st December. Clear and no prevarication. Powerful message
    Not sure that's possible.

    Motion for GE must go on Order Paper the night before.

    So earliest date motion could be debated is now Thurs.

    And I think that's too late for 28 Nov - Parliament would not actually be dissolved the same day as the vote - think Queen has to sign a proclamation or similar which would only be the next day (at earliest).
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320

    Floater said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Quite amusing - Newnight 5-1 Remainer panel tearing their hair out that Boris isn't being punished by the electorate for us not leaving on 31st October! :D

    It's almost like voters can see through the remainiacs tactics.
    I think Letwin on Saturday sealed the deal with BJ being deliberately and vindictively cornered. May extending by choice is completely different to Johnson being compelled against his will. The more they push the more they get further away from their goal of neutralising him.
    May was also compelled against her will. She was just more dignified about it.
    Well not compelled by newly made laws designed specifically for her.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/03/mps-pass-motion-to-debate-article-50-extension-by-one-vote

    A cross-party group of MPs has forced through an emergency bill in less than six hours to instruct Theresa May to seek an extension to article 50 and avoid a no-deal Brexit, despite government opposition.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited October 2019
    Anyway, if we do get an election, my prediction is a Tory majority of ~40. Prediction for vote shares: Tories 42%, Labour 36%. Much as people aren't pleased with either of the two parties, they'll end up polarising anyway with people picking the lesser evil, because the alternative seems so unbelievably horrendous (a la Clinton/Trump).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sky News breaking news:

    "A No.10 source says that the government will push for a general election if a Brexit extension is agreed".

    FFS, that is already government policy. Do that but also try to push your legislation through while you're still there if you care about it.

    I really get the impression the Tories have lost their bottle in parliament, and after days of momentum are now scared they don't have the votes to get it through.

    Because that's key for me - they said they felt they had the votes to pass it, and if they were not lying still think that. OBviously they are very upset that they will face an extension, but if they want to pass it, and have the votes to pass it, why are they not passing it?

    Because the bill might get amended, and while clearly willing to compromise on all manner of stuff (the integrity of the union, for example), they absolutely refuse to compromise on stuff that matters to them... or doesn’t accord with the maintenance of Boris’ ego.

    And think they can win a majority any ensuing election.

  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613



    What are the additonal responsibilities of British citizenship compared to a British resident.

    Voting
    Eligible for conscription in a war? Not going to happen with modern warfare.
    Anything else?

    So they shouldnt be able to vote as they havent taken on the responsibility of the right to vote.....

    Jury service is the immediate one I can think of.

    But the important point is that they are showing a commitment to remaining in Britain and making their lives here. The long term well being of our country now becomes part of their responsibility rather than just short term personal advantage.
    Jury service is an obligation for EU nationals who are long term residents in the UK. http://www.zenithchambers.co.uk/current-awareness/crime/is-it-possible-for-foreigners-to-sit-on-an-english-jury

    Do you think UK nationals who live abroad for a lengthy period of time should have the right to vote here? I just find it hard to accept that someone who has lived in the country for 20 years plus and chosen to move here, has shown less of a commitment to the country than someone else, who has a UK passport from an accident of birth and chooses to live elsewhere!
    I suppose the argument would be someone who has lived in the UK for 20 years plus would have had the opportunity to apply for British citizenship if they wanted. If they have chosen for whatever reason not to, then they can't vote.

    As an aside, when living in the US, I contacted Manchester City Council about getting on the electoral roll to maintain my voting rights and was told "I wouldn't bother mate, they're all as bad as each other". When I said I'd still like to register regardless he said "Well if you must then. I'll send the form in the post". And then didn't.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Noo said:

    If they wish to be given the right to vote they should take on the responsibility of British citizenship.

    In the past 3 months I have stood referee for three 3 friends - two Polish and a Vietnamese - who wished to show their commitment to the UK by becoming British citizens. I was immensely proud to be asked to do so. I am pretty sure that given the chance the two Polish friends would vote to Remain in the EU but that doesn't matter. I love the fact they wish to commit to being British (actually in two of the three cases being Scottish if that is the way the Indy referendum goes)

    Yes, we've been over this conversation before.
    I'm trying to get my shovel under this idea that giving EU citizens the vote is somehow "rigging" elections; I have spoken before about the immigrants I know in the UK, folk from Venezuela, Lithuania, Romania, Czech Republic. These are people who are not going to vote Labour, because they know something about politics from their own past in those countries. I do also know immigrants who would vote Labour.

    I respect but reject your argument for making certain people jump through a difficult series of hoops before they vote, but it's a bit of a tangent to the main point I was making, that it's wrong that you can rely on EU citizens to vote a certain way, and even if it were that is then an argument against them being allowed to vote. Your arguments are separate from that point, so I'll leave them to stand for themselves.
    That s fair enough. I was arguing purely on the ethics of giving non citizens the vote rather than the practical effects on any individual election.

    Though I would of course point out that giving 3 million people the vote in a referendum when in all likelihood they are not interested in the long term effects of that vote, merely the next few years before they then go home, does seem a bit off.
    I'm not so much interested in giving people the vote for the referendum, it's a lot more general and principled than that for me. I am a Remainer, but that aside I have no party affiliations and I'm a floating voter. I'm really keen for people who live here to vote in general elections. I can't tell whether that would benefit me personally, because I don't always know who I'm going to vote for. I didn't make up my mind in May until I was in the polling station.
    So I appreciate it's hard to put Brexit to one side in this conversation, but I assure you it's not my motivation here.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106


    I expect Boris to call it immediately he receives Tusk letter confirming a flexi extension to 31st January. As that is likely tomorrow Boris calls it on Thursday and GE on 28th November

    And Boris campaign will be elect me and we leave the EU on the 31st December. Clear and no prevarication. Powerful message

    I agree.

    To be fair the LD's message is also completely clear which will hoover up millions of remainers.

    It is Labour's positioning that is unlikely to survive the first week of a GE campaign.


  • What are the additonal responsibilities of British citizenship compared to a British resident.

    Voting
    Eligible for conscription in a war? Not going to happen with modern warfare.
    Anything else?

    So they shouldnt be able to vote as they havent taken on the responsibility of the right to vote.....

    Jury service is the immediate one I can think of.

    But the important point is that they are showing a commitment to remaining in Britain and making their lives here. The long term well being of our country now becomes part of their responsibility rather than just short term personal advantage.
    Jury service is an obligation for EU nationals who are long term residents in the UK. http://www.zenithchambers.co.uk/current-awareness/crime/is-it-possible-for-foreigners-to-sit-on-an-english-jury

    Do you think UK nationals who live abroad for a lengthy period of time should have the right to vote here? I just find it hard to accept that someone who has lived in the country for 20 years plus and chosen to move here, has shown less of a commitment to the country than someone else, who has a UK passport from an accident of birth and chooses to live elsewhere!
    No I don't think they should. They should take out citizenship of the country in which they are living and vote there.

    Thanks, that is consistent. In the hierarchy of voting I would be UK resident nationals > UK nationals temporarily overseas > long term foreign residents here > UK nationals long term overseas.

    Where we draw the line is arbitrary enough that I have no strong view, but think long term foreign residents should be treated at least as well as UK nationals long term overseas. I think we should phase out the differences between Commonwealth, EU and other foreign nationals voting rights too, possibly Irish too although that may be too controversial.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Votes at sixteen isn't ambitious enough. I'd like to see votes from birth - but exercised by proxy by the mother until the child claims their vote by writing a letter to the returning officer to do so.

    Yes to the principle, which is that MPs should govern in the interest of all citizens, which means representing all equally amongst the electorate rather than ignoring those aged 0 to 17.

    In terms of practicalities, I would favour the child taking over the right to vote for themselves only at an age when they were deemed responsible enough, that is 18 or perhaps 16 but not before. Also, where both parents were living together, the father would be given the voting rights for boys, and the mother the voting rights for girls. Where children were living at an address where only one parent was registered to vote, that parent would vote for all of them.

    An interim step would be to equalise constituency sizes based on ONS estimates for the whole population, rather than just those aged 18+ who bother to register.
    A fascinating variation on that is giving dads the girls' votes and mums the boys'. Maybe get you thinking a bit about other people's viewpoints.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Where is Byronic anyway?

    Getting a grand out of a cash machine.
  • SunnyJim said:


    I expect Boris to call it immediately he receives Tusk letter confirming a flexi extension to 31st January. As that is likely tomorrow Boris calls it on Thursday and GE on 28th November

    And Boris campaign will be elect me and we leave the EU on the 31st December. Clear and no prevarication. Powerful message

    I agree.

    To be fair the LD's message is also completely clear which will hoover up millions of remainers.

    It is Labour's positioning that is unlikely to survive the first week of a GE campaign.
    I have been saying this for a while. It could be a labour bloodbath caught in a pincer between Boris and Lib Dems
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,893

    Floater said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Quite amusing - Newnight 5-1 Remainer panel tearing their hair out that Boris isn't being punished by the electorate for us not leaving on 31st October! :D

    It's almost like voters can see through the remainiacs tactics.
    I think Letwin on Saturday sealed the deal with BJ being deliberately and vindictively cornered. May extending by choice is completely different to Johnson being compelled against his will. The more they push the more they get further away from their goal of neutralising him.
    May was also compelled against her will. She was just more dignified about it.
    Dignity, sanity and politeness don't seem traits much appreciated by the electorate though.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664
    edited October 2019
    Thurs 5 Dec still possible.

    But Thurs 12 Dec looks a bit silly - w/c Mon 16 Dec would be taken up with swearing in MPs (3 days) + electing Speaker so there wouldn't even be time for a Queens Speech before Christmas.

    One other thing - there needs to be a Budget in 2019 - I think by law there have to be two fiscal events each calendar year - and by law OBR has to issue forecasts on public finances twice each calendar year.

    If Parliament is dissolved in next few days for a Thurs 5 Dec GE there is no way a Budget could take place before January.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    Floater said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Quite amusing - Newnight 5-1 Remainer panel tearing their hair out that Boris isn't being punished by the electorate for us not leaving on 31st October! :D

    It's almost like voters can see through the remainiacs tactics.
    I think Letwin on Saturday sealed the deal with BJ being deliberately and vindictively cornered. May extending by choice is completely different to Johnson being compelled against his will. The more they push the more they get further away from their goal of neutralising him.
    May was also compelled against her will. She was just more dignified about it.
    Well not compelled by newly made laws designed specifically for her.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/03/mps-pass-motion-to-debate-article-50-extension-by-one-vote

    A cross-party group of MPs has forced through an emergency bill in less than six hours to instruct Theresa May to seek an extension to article 50 and avoid a no-deal Brexit, despite government opposition.
    Fair enough. 🤔
  • Enough excitement for one day.

    7 days to heart bypass assessment appointment.

    Good luck, hope all goes well.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    SunnyJim said:


    I expect Boris to call it immediately he receives Tusk letter confirming a flexi extension to 31st January. As that is likely tomorrow Boris calls it on Thursday and GE on 28th November

    And Boris campaign will be elect me and we leave the EU on the 31st December. Clear and no prevarication. Powerful message

    I agree.

    To be fair the LD's message is also completely clear which will hoover up millions of remainers.

    It is Labour's positioning that is unlikely to survive the first week of a GE campaign.
    MikeL said:

    eek said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sky News breaking news:

    "A No.10 source says that the government will push for a general election if a Brexit extension is agreed".

    Looks like a November/early 2019 GE

    Good for those who called it
    A November election is 30 / 90 on Betfair Exchange.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.154849135
    A November election needs to be called by Thursday.

    December is possible but even that requires a 2/3rd vote otherwise we are rapidly into late December and very quickly into early January.
    I expect Boris to call it immediately he receives Tusk letter confirming a flexi extension to 31st January. As that is likely tomorrow Boris calls it on Thursday and GE on 28th November

    And Boris campaign will be elect me and we leave the EU on the 31st December. Clear and no prevarication. Powerful message
    Not sure that's possible.

    Motion for GE must go on Order Paper the night before.

    So earliest date motion could be debated is now Thurs.

    And I think that's too late for 28 Nov - Parliament would not actually be dissolved the same day as the vote - think Queen has to sign a proclamation or similar which would only be the next day (at earliest).
    i
    Having double checked it's too late for the 28th. It's 25 business days before an election so the only November date left is the 29th.
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613

    Noo said:

    blueblue said:

    Noo said:

    blueblue said:

    Noo said:

    blueblue said:

    SunnyJim said:

    Danny565 said:

    Not just votes at 16, there's probably a majority in the Commons to give votes to EU citizens as well.

    That would boost the Tories by another few percent when they promise to repeal votes at 16 and votes for EU citizens.
    It would be an almost unbelievable piece of vote-rigging. The Tories could run most of their campaign on telling the existing electorate that the opposition wants to dilute their votes because they know they can't win any other way.
    Why don't you think EU citizens would vote Conservative? Quite a few of the people I work with from EU countries have voted Conservative in local and Holyrood elections.
    Whatever their normal political leanings, the great majority of them are hardly likely to vote Conservative if that means the UK leaving the EU, are they?
    Why wouldn't they be? Do you think EU citizens living here are going to suffer from the UK leaving the EU?
    You do like being utterly disingenuous, don't you?
    It's a perfectly innocent question. If EU citizens already living here are going to be fine, then they should be as equally in favour of leaving the EU as UK citizens.
    If they aren't, then perhaps giving them the vote ought to be an important counterweight to what is being done to them.

    Conservatives used to believe in giving folk personal responsibility. I can't fathom why that idea doesn't translate into given them votes.
    If they wish to be given the right to vote they should take on the responsibility of British citizenship.

    In the past 3 months I have stood referee for three 3 friends - two Polish and a Vietnamese - who wished to show their commitment to the UK by becoming British citizens. I was immensely proud to be asked to do so. I am pretty sure that given the chance the two Polish friends would vote to Remain in the EU but that doesn't matter. I love the fact they wish to commit to being British (actually in two of the three cases being Scottish if that is the way the Indy referendum goes)
    What are the additonal responsibilities of British citizenship compared to a British resident.

    Voting
    Eligible for conscription in a war? Not going to happen with modern warfare.
    Anything else?

    So they shouldnt be able to vote as they havent taken on the responsibility of the right to vote.....

    Eligible to be selected for the England football team ?

    Eligible for the protection of HMG in the event they get in trouble overseas - Don Pacifico etc
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736

    Floater said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Quite amusing - Newnight 5-1 Remainer panel tearing their hair out that Boris isn't being punished by the electorate for us not leaving on 31st October! :D

    It's almost like voters can see through the remainiacs tactics.
    I think Letwin on Saturday sealed the deal with BJ being deliberately and vindictively cornered. May extending by choice is completely different to Johnson being compelled against his will. The more they push the more they get further away from their goal of neutralising him.
    Does anyone with a head on their shoulders really think Boris Johnson isn't down on his knees every night thanking heaven for Benn, Letwin and Co. for giving him the time he needs to get his deal through - and simultaneously relieving him of reponsibility for the extension?
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    I dithered over taking a punt on the election being next month and in the space of a few minutes the 30s have been taken and there's a few quid left at 20.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477

    viewcode said:

    OH MY GOODNESS! PART 1

    @williamglenn wins his bet from @SeanT !!!

    How byronic that Sean's not here to comment, eh?
    Just catching up on the evening’s goings-on. Been at the football. Sean will lose his bet to William if we are still in the EU at 0001hrs on 1 Jan 2020. Is that now the case? (Warning, I’m smashed, so speak slowly)
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    GIN1138 said:

    GE is 12.12.19 imo

    Normally 7am - 10pm

    Not for 1 second around lunchtime
    School kids to vote in their lunch hour!

    I would also tack on compulsory voting.
    I wouldn't mind compulsory voting as long as there's a "None Of The Above" option - which is why it'll never happen as "None Of The Above" would win a landslide every time. ;)
    Thanks for your support but I am not planning on standing.
    To be honest I think we should have NOTA on voting now. Make a world of difference I think and encourage better candidates.
    What would be the practical effect of NOTA winning the vote?
    In an individual constituency? A new slate of candidates has to be put up. Rinse and repeat.

    At the moment I’m sure in many constituencies the least worst candidate wins and wins by default. The assumption someone *must*win can’t be a good thing.
    So you're talking about the student union staple RON, Re-Open Nominations. I thought you might have something else in mind.
  • eek said:

    SunnyJim said:


    I expect Boris to call it immediately he receives Tusk letter confirming a flexi extension to 31st January. As that is likely tomorrow Boris calls it on Thursday and GE on 28th November

    And Boris campaign will be elect me and we leave the EU on the 31st December. Clear and no prevarication. Powerful message

    I agree.

    To be fair the LD's message is also completely clear which will hoover up millions of remainers.

    It is Labour's positioning that is unlikely to survive the first week of a GE campaign.
    MikeL said:

    eek said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sky News breaking news:

    "A No.10 source says that the government will push for a general election if a Brexit extension is agreed".

    Looks like a November/early 2019 GE

    Good for those who called it
    A November election is 30 / 90 on Betfair Exchange.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.154849135
    A November election needs to be called by Thursday.

    December is possible but even that requires a 2/3rd vote otherwise we are rapidly into late December and very quickly into early January.
    I expect Boris to call it immediately he receives Tusk letter confirming a flexi extension to 31st January. As that is likely tomorrow Boris calls it on Thursday and GE on 28th November

    And Boris campaign will be elect me and we leave the EU on the 31st December. Clear and no prevarication. Powerful message
    Not sure that's possible.

    Motion for GE must go on Order Paper the night before.

    So earliest date motion could be debated is now Thurs.

    And I think that's too late for 28 Nov - Parliament would not actually be dissolved the same day as the vote - think Queen has to sign a proclamation or similar which would only be the next day (at earliest).
    i
    Having double checked it's too late for the 28th. It's 25 business days before an election so the only November date left is the 29th.
    Thanks, so a friday election
  • PaulM said:

    Noo said:

    blueblue said:

    Noo said:

    blueblue said:

    Noo said:

    blueblue said:

    SunnyJim said:

    Danny565 said:

    Not just votes at 16, there's probably a majority in the Commons to give votes to EU citizens as well.

    That would boost the Tories by another few percent when they promise to repeal votes at 16 and votes for EU citizens.
    Why don't you think EU citizens would vote Conservative? Quite a few of the people I work with from EU countries have voted Conservative in local and Holyrood elections.
    Whatever their normal political leanings, the great majority of them are hardly likely to vote Conservative if that means the UK leaving the EU, are they?
    Why wouldn't they be? Do you think EU citizens living here are going to suffer from the UK leaving the EU?
    You do like being utterly disingenuous, don't you?
    It's a perfectly innocent question. If EU citizens already living here are going to be fine, then they should be as equally in favour of leaving the EU as UK citizens.
    If they aren't, then perhaps giving them the vote ought to be an important counterweight to what is being done to them.

    Conservatives used to believe in giving folk personal responsibility. I can't fathom why that idea doesn't translate into given them votes.
    If they wish to be given the right to vote they should take on the responsibility of British citizenship.

    In the past 3 months I have stood referee for three 3 friends - two Polish and a Vietnamese - who wished to show their commitment to the UK by becoming British citizens. I was immensely proud to be asked to do so. I am pretty sure that given the chance the two Polish friends would vote to Remain in the EU but that doesn't matter. I love the fact they wish to commit to being British (actually in two of the three cases being Scottish if that is the way the Indy referendum goes)
    What are the additonal responsibilities of British citizenship compared to a British resident.

    Voting
    Eligible for conscription in a war? Not going to happen with modern warfare.
    Anything else?

    So they shouldnt be able to vote as they havent taken on the responsibility of the right to vote.....

    Eligible to be selected for the England football team ?

    Eligible for the protection of HMG in the event they get in trouble overseas - Don Pacifico etc
    In what sense are those responsibilities?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Chris said:

    Floater said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Quite amusing - Newnight 5-1 Remainer panel tearing their hair out that Boris isn't being punished by the electorate for us not leaving on 31st October! :D

    It's almost like voters can see through the remainiacs tactics.
    I think Letwin on Saturday sealed the deal with BJ being deliberately and vindictively cornered. May extending by choice is completely different to Johnson being compelled against his will. The more they push the more they get further away from their goal of neutralising him.
    Does anyone with a head on their shoulders really think Boris Johnson isn't down on his knees every night thanking heaven for Benn, Letwin and Co. for giving him the time he needs to get his deal through - and simultaneously relieving him of reponsibility for the extension?
    Indeed. ‘Vindictively cornered’ is almost as absurd as Rees Mogg’s disingenuous nonsense from earlier today.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    Foxy said:

    Scott_P said:
    Pity. Good airline.
    Does it really have a route to LHR? You have to change at LAX, SIN or A.N. OTHER as I recall.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    PaulM said:

    Eligible to be selected for the England football team ?

    Eligible for the protection of HMG in the event they get in trouble overseas - Don Pacifico etc

    What about the Scottish, Welsh, Northern Ireland or Irish national teams ;)
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Conservative majority is now favourite for the next GE. Another case of hypothetical, pre campaign polls being reverse indicators, or will Boris buck the trend?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Danny565 said:

    Anyway, if we do get an election, my prediction is a Tory majority of ~40. Prediction for vote shares: Tories 42%, Labour 36%. Much as people aren't pleased with either of the two parties, they'll end up polarising anyway with people picking the lesser evil, because the alternative seems so unbelievably horrendous (a la Clinton/Trump).

    My guess is Tory majority of 20, with Tories no higher than 40 %.

    Like you, I expect a classic small party squeeze on the LibDems and The Brexit Party.

    The election will be good for the SNP and bad for PC.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    Chris said:

    Floater said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Quite amusing - Newnight 5-1 Remainer panel tearing their hair out that Boris isn't being punished by the electorate for us not leaving on 31st October! :D

    It's almost like voters can see through the remainiacs tactics.
    I think Letwin on Saturday sealed the deal with BJ being deliberately and vindictively cornered. May extending by choice is completely different to Johnson being compelled against his will. The more they push the more they get further away from their goal of neutralising him.
    Does anyone with a head on their shoulders really think Boris Johnson isn't down on his knees every night thanking heaven for Benn, Letwin and Co. for giving him the time he needs to get his deal through - and simultaneously relieving him of reponsibility for the extension?
    Except he seems to be giving up on getting in through.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2019
    I'm not convinced the Tories will win an easy majority at a GE. They could lose loads of seats in the home counties and SW London to the LDs like Guildford and Wimbledon. The polls may not be a good guide because the Conservatives could be piling up huge majorities in their safe seats in the SW, Midlands, Yorkshire, etc.
  • Chris said:

    Floater said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Quite amusing - Newnight 5-1 Remainer panel tearing their hair out that Boris isn't being punished by the electorate for us not leaving on 31st October! :D

    It's almost like voters can see through the remainiacs tactics.
    I think Letwin on Saturday sealed the deal with BJ being deliberately and vindictively cornered. May extending by choice is completely different to Johnson being compelled against his will. The more they push the more they get further away from their goal of neutralising him.
    Does anyone with a head on their shoulders really think Boris Johnson isn't down on his knees every night thanking heaven for Benn, Letwin and Co. for giving him the time he needs to get his deal through - and simultaneously relieving him of reponsibility for the extension?
    He is a very lucky general and if he wins a GE before Xmas with divorce from the EU on the 31st December he will have confounded us all
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,825

    Foxy said:

    Scott_P said:
    Pity. Good airline.
    Does it really have a route to LHR? You have to change at LAX, SIN or A.N. OTHER as I recall.
    The LAX route sucked. You had to go through customs to sit in a waiting room for 30 mins. I'm sure the Singapore route was much nicer.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    Anyway, from a betting point of view, if there's an election in early December and Johnson gets a working majority, do people think he'll still be mad keen to get Brexit done within a few days, or will he adopt a more leirsurely approach and leave next year?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,893
    kle4 said:

    Chris said:

    Floater said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Quite amusing - Newnight 5-1 Remainer panel tearing their hair out that Boris isn't being punished by the electorate for us not leaving on 31st October! :D

    It's almost like voters can see through the remainiacs tactics.
    I think Letwin on Saturday sealed the deal with BJ being deliberately and vindictively cornered. May extending by choice is completely different to Johnson being compelled against his will. The more they push the more they get further away from their goal of neutralising him.
    Does anyone with a head on their shoulders really think Boris Johnson isn't down on his knees every night thanking heaven for Benn, Letwin and Co. for giving him the time he needs to get his deal through - and simultaneously relieving him of reponsibility for the extension?
    Except he seems to be giving up on getting in through.
    Not sure he has the numbers - you really don't want to be relying on the likes of Lisa Nandy.
  • Danny565 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Looks like the public want to remain in the EU with a mahoosive Tory majority

    Deltapoll must have surveyed @Richard_Nabavi a lot of times...
    Yes, but they forget to mention the caveat that I wanted Cameron and Osborne back running things, or if they're not available David Gauke, Phil Hammond and Amber Rudd.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited October 2019
    kle4 said:

    Chris said:

    Floater said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Quite amusing - Newnight 5-1 Remainer panel tearing their hair out that Boris isn't being punished by the electorate for us not leaving on 31st October! :D

    It's almost like voters can see through the remainiacs tactics.
    I think Letwin on Saturday sealed the deal with BJ being deliberately and vindictively cornered. May extending by choice is completely different to Johnson being compelled against his will. The more they push the more they get further away from their goal of neutralising him.
    Does anyone with a head on their shoulders really think Boris Johnson isn't down on his knees every night thanking heaven for Benn, Letwin and Co. for giving him the time he needs to get his deal through - and simultaneously relieving him of reponsibility for the extension?
    Except he seems to be giving up on getting in through.
    I've got some sympathy with this viewpoint. After all, Ken Clarke said quite reasonably after the vote tonight that perhaps only another 3-4 days of debate was needed on the WAB than what was already slated, why doesn't the government just plough on?

    But of course we know the reason. The mendacity of a Remainer House that will amend the bill up to the gills and be holding things up indefinitely through whatever chicanery it can improvise. There needs to be some time pressure or the thing will get salami-sliced to oblivion.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,893
    Chris said:

    Anyway, from a betting point of view, if there's an election in early December and Johnson gets a working majority, do people think he'll still be mad keen to get Brexit done within a few days, or will he adopt a more leirsurely approach and leave next year?

    I assume the current bill dies if there is an election as it's a new session ?

    My guess is he'd allow scrutiny of the bill for the exit date of 31st January - there's probably legitimate things that need tidying up in there that don't alter the substance of the matter.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    AndyJS said:

    I'm not convinced the Tories will win an easy majority at a GE. They could lose loads of seats in the home counties and SW London to the LDs like Guildford and Wimbledon. The polls may not be a good guide because the Conservatives could be piling up huge majorities in their safe seats in the SW, Midlands, Yorkshire, etc.

    There will be a point where the middle class make a decision on their priorities.

    No deal Brexit is no longer a threat so for many I would think Corbyn will be much the bigger fear.
  • AndyJS said:

    I'm not convinced the Tories will win an easy majority at a GE. They could lose loads of seats in the home counties and SW London to the LDs like Guildford and Wimbledon. The polls may not be a good guide because the Conservatives could be piling up huge majorities in their safe seats in the SW, Midlands, Yorkshire, etc.

    They already piled up huge majorities in many of those in 2017.

    The situation is both complicated and unclear.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited October 2019
    AndyJS said:

    I'm not convinced the Tories will win an easy majority at a GE. They could lose loads of seats in the home counties and SW London to the LDs like Guildford and Wimbledon. The polls may not be a good guide because the Conservatives could be piling up huge majorities in their safe seats in the SW, Midlands, Yorkshire, etc.

    I am not convinced they will get a big majority, & I would not be at all surprised if they lost Wimbledon & Guildford.

    But there are many more Wrexhams and Newcastle-Under-Lymes and Ashfields that I think they will take.

This discussion has been closed.