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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » MPs back the deal but block the timetable

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  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,121
    JRM in his element talking about what is and isn't limbo (both before and after Pope Benedict XVI's 2007 decree).
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    By the way, as an aside, Jeremy Corbyn did well today.

    He's toxic, for sure, but sometimes he can perform very well. Bear this in mind when you're shelling out your bets ahead of the General Election campaign.

    Yes, Labour played this well. They gave tacit approval to those who wanted vote for the second reading but ensured that enough of them voted against the timetable in the knowledge that this would have the desired effect - Johnson has to accept the extension and it's now very unlikely his deal will pass.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1186718369342509059

    If BoZo does request a different date I am not sure the Courts will be happy

    He can’t if they offer31/1 he has to accept it if they were to offer a different date then it’s up to the commons. The best thing if you want out is for them to refuse an extension but you risk no deal or revoke.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    So on and on and on :wink:

    Various thoughts:

    1) Are the people who were outraged that Trump won despite receiving fewer votes equally outraged that Trudeau did as well ?

    2) Can those people who proclaim the sanctity of the GFA explain why the continued failure to agree a functioning NI assembly and executive doesn't mean the GFA is no longer fit for purpose ?

    3) There were seven different types of British apples on sale this evening in Tesco - looks like the claims about them all rotting in the orchards have as little validity as those about strawberries.

    Oh goodie, I miss your strawberry updates.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,427
    So 55% of the public now back Remain, and rising.

    Boris surely has united the country.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    Two questions:
    1. What's going to happen to to all those 31/10/2019 Brexit 50p pieces?
    2. Has the government stopped wasting money on the Get Ready for Brexit ads yet?

    Third question:
    3 Can UK taxpayers sue a PM who so flagrantly wastes public money?

    I fear they've got legal immunity but councillors who disregard their officials' advice can be surcharged.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,274
    edited October 2019

    So on and on and on :wink:

    Various thoughts:

    1) Are the people who were outraged that Trump won despite receiving fewer votes equally outraged that Trudeau did as well ?

    2) Can those people who proclaim the sanctity of the GFA explain why the continued failure to agree a functioning NI assembly and executive doesn't mean the GFA is no longer fit for purpose ?

    3) There were seven different types of British apples on sale this evening in Tesco - looks like the claims about them all rotting in the orchards have as little validity as those about strawberries.

    1 of course not (though to be fair even Hillary accepted defeat on the US system as Scheer did on the Canadian system).

    The issue in 2000 was over Florida's electoral college votes, Gore's popular vote win was irrelevant
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,358
    AndyJS said:
    Deltapoll was one that Labour could cling to in the hope they wouldn't suffer a meltdown. Tory lead up from 3% to 13% in a month. 5% swing to the Tories. Think how many Labour seats have been lot as they've dicked around.

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Endillion said:

    So it was fine to force the Benn Act nonsense through both houses in a day from scratch, casually whacking multiple well-established precedents out of existence in the process, but taking several times as long to finalise a bill they've already approved in principle and spent about a year discussing is totally out of the question. Have I understood correctly? What on earth is wrong with these people?

    I think the Opposition would accept that the WAIB was subjected to the same length of time of Parliamentary scrutiny as the Benn-Burt Act in proportion to the length of the Bill. How many dozens of sitting days would that result in?
  • DavidL said:

    So on and on and on :wink:

    Various thoughts:

    1) Are the people who were outraged that Trump won despite receiving fewer votes equally outraged that Trudeau did as well ?

    2) Can those people who proclaim the sanctity of the GFA explain why the continued failure to agree a functioning NI assembly and executive doesn't mean the GFA is no longer fit for purpose ?

    3) There were seven different types of British apples on sale this evening in Tesco - looks like the claims about them all rotting in the orchards have as little validity as those about strawberries.

    Oh goodie, I miss your strawberry updates.
    Had a quick glance at them as well - Aberdeenshire, Herefordshire, Kent and West Sussex today.

    I'm amazed they're still going at the end of October.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,691
    The problem with the left is that they actually know they are wrong. Their plan is just stealing.

    I could have said that at any time. At any time it's been true.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,358
    Scott_P said:
    How did they "trigger" him - going for a reselection?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,872

    I have been amazed through this Brexit at how often either side has contrived to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Four weeks ago, the Opposition had Johnson on the ropes. They could have struck, but chose instead to toy with him. This led to the surprise of Johnson securing a deal.

    Up until Friday I thought we were 'on' to Brexit. All Johnson needed to do was accept a short technical extension of a few weeks and his deal would almost certainly have passed. Even today he could have done that. But thanks to his utterly ridiculous self-imposed deadline he has totally screwed this up.

    A race to see who cocks up the least first.

    If Nov 15 is now possible just put in a new programme for then, saying no need to go all way to Jan. Do or die.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586

    AndyJS said:
    Deltapoll was one that Labour could cling to in the hope they wouldn't suffer a meltdown. Tory lead up from 3% to 13% in a month. 5% swing to the Tories. Think how many Labour seats have been lot as they've dicked around.

    ComRes and Panelbase have also tended to be closer - it will be interesting to see the next iteration of those two.

    In any event there is not going to be a GE before next spring imo. A lot could happen between now and the GE.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,872

    Endillion said:

    So it was fine to force the Benn Act nonsense through both houses in a day from scratch, casually whacking multiple well-established precedents out of existence in the process, but taking several times as long to finalise a bill they've already approved in principle and spent about a year discussing is totally out of the question. Have I understood correctly? What on earth is wrong with these people?

    I think the Opposition would accept that the WAIB was subjected to the same length of time of Parliamentary scrutiny as the Benn-Burt Act in proportion to the length of the Bill. How many dozens of sitting days would that result in?
    2-3 months if not including guidance notes?
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,121
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1186718369342509059

    If BoZo does request a different date I am not sure the Courts will be happy

    S3(4) of the Benn Act:. Nothing in this section shall prevent the Prime Minister from agreeing to an extension of the period specified in Article 50(3) of the Treaty on European Union otherwise than in accordance with this section.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Endillion said:

    So it was fine to force the Benn Act nonsense through both houses in a day from scratch, casually whacking multiple well-established precedents out of existence in the process, but taking several times as long to finalise a bill they've already approved in principle and spent about a year discussing is totally out of the question. Have I understood correctly? What on earth is wrong with these people?

    I think the Opposition would accept that the WAIB was subjected to the same length of time of Parliamentary scrutiny as the Benn-Burt Act in proportion to the length of the Bill. How many dozens of sitting days would that result in?
    The ‘experts’ said normally such a bill would require 37 sitting days to do its job correctly. Unable to provide citation but that’s what they said. I can think of several thing that are unacceptable in the bill which should be removed without altering the substantive even before it gets amended.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    DavidL said:

    So on and on and on :wink:

    Various thoughts:

    1) Are the people who were outraged that Trump won despite receiving fewer votes equally outraged that Trudeau did as well ?

    2) Can those people who proclaim the sanctity of the GFA explain why the continued failure to agree a functioning NI assembly and executive doesn't mean the GFA is no longer fit for purpose ?

    3) There were seven different types of British apples on sale this evening in Tesco - looks like the claims about them all rotting in the orchards have as little validity as those about strawberries.

    Oh goodie, I miss your strawberry updates.
    Had a quick glance at them as well - Aberdeenshire, Herefordshire, Kent and West Sussex today.

    I'm amazed they're still going at the end of October.
    The wonders of plastic tunnels.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,274
    edited October 2019

    So 55% of the public now back Remain, and rising.

    Boris surely has united the country.

    They are not when the question includes Leaving with the Boris Deal v Remain. The 55% likely includes those opposed to leaving with No Deal

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1185485165323313152?s=20
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329

    Endillion said:

    So it was fine to force the Benn Act nonsense through both houses in a day from scratch, casually whacking multiple well-established precedents out of existence in the process, but taking several times as long to finalise a bill they've already approved in principle and spent about a year discussing is totally out of the question. Have I understood correctly? What on earth is wrong with these people?

    FFS! The Benn Bill was two pages... The WAB is 110 pages plus 125 pages of explanatory notes!
    But as mentioned above most of the deal has already been debated. To death.

    Are we really suggesting if an EU country said it was going to veto and it would be No Deal or the deal then they would say it can’t be done. Clearly not.

    The Benn act set out approval of an indicative vote by the house on 19th October knowing a deal would only come back from EU summit on 17th. Did they provide too little time? Was the 19th to the 31st too short? If so why did the Benn act not specify an earlier date?

    When is an opposition party going to vote no confidence in the prime minister. He does not have the confidence of the house. He cannot get business through the house. The opposition keep on inflicting defeats thinking they are being clever but their main job is to replace a government that is not functioning, by supercession or election.

    What next? Two more years of this nonsense because they are scared to lose their jobs? Corbyn said once no deal was secured then the election he was asking for daily could be held. Is there any chance of this happening anytime soon?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Scott_P said:
    It’s called ‘silly buggers’ and he learned it on the playing fields of Eton.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    nichomar said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1186718369342509059

    If BoZo does request a different date I am not sure the Courts will be happy

    He can’t if they offer31/1 he has to accept it if they were to offer a different date then it’s up to the commons. The best thing if you want out is for them to refuse an extension but you risk no deal or revoke.
    The extension can be terminated early when the Bill passes, as indeed could the current one.

  • Scott_P said:
    OMG absolute gold.

    Replace him with some Momentum-ite and lose The People's Republic of Morningside.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,427
    HYUFD said:

    So 55% of the public now back Remain, and rising.

    Boris surely has united the country.

    They are not when the question includes Leaving with the Boris Deal v Remain. The 55% likely includes those opposed to leaving with No Deal

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1185485165323313152?s=20
    So 50-50? Slam dunk wILL of tHe PEopLe that.
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 1,118
    Danny565 said:


    My reading of the bill is that, after he's sent the letter, Boris's only legal duty after that concerns his reaction if/when the EU offers an extension date (if they offer 31st Jan, he's legally required to accept on the spot; if they offer another date, he's legally required to put it to a binding Commons vote within two days).

    Not quite, though this is a distinction without a difference -- if they offer another date, he's required to accept unless he puts it to a Commons vote and the Commons reject it; but he's allowed to accept without consulting the Commons. Since he's not about to voluntarily agree any extension it comes out to the same thing...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    ydoethur said:

    It’s called ‘silly buggers’ and he learned it on the playing fields of Eton.

    Just as the Supreme Court told the Government not to take the piss, the EU should do the same.

    Announce January 31st and be done with it
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586

    Endillion said:

    So it was fine to force the Benn Act nonsense through both houses in a day from scratch, casually whacking multiple well-established precedents out of existence in the process, but taking several times as long to finalise a bill they've already approved in principle and spent about a year discussing is totally out of the question. Have I understood correctly? What on earth is wrong with these people?

    FFS! The Benn Bill was two pages... The WAB is 110 pages plus 125 pages of explanatory notes!
    But as mentioned above most of the deal has already been debated. To death.

    Are we really suggesting if an EU country said it was going to veto and it would be No Deal or the deal then they would say it can’t be done. Clearly not.

    The Benn act set out approval of an indicative vote by the house on 19th October knowing a deal would only come back from EU summit on 17th. Did they provide too little time? Was the 19th to the 31st too short? If so why did the Benn act not specify an earlier date?

    When is an opposition party going to vote no confidence in the prime minister. He does not have the confidence of the house. He cannot get business through the house. The opposition keep on inflicting defeats thinking they are being clever but their main job is to replace a government that is not functioning, by supercession or election.

    What next? Two more years of this nonsense because they are scared to lose their jobs? Corbyn said once no deal was secured then the election he was asking for daily could be held. Is there any chance of this happening anytime soon?
    No Deal has not yet been removed from the table.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893

    I have been amazed through this Brexit at how often either side has contrived to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Four weeks ago, the Opposition had Johnson on the ropes. They could have struck, but chose instead to toy with him. This led to the surprise of Johnson securing a deal.

    Up until Friday I thought we were 'on' to Brexit. All Johnson needed to do was accept a short technical extension of a few weeks and his deal would almost certainly have passed. Even today he could have done that. But thanks to his utterly ridiculous self-imposed deadline he has totally screwed this up.

    This parliament will never sign off Brexit when it comes to the crunch. Just look at some of those who are needed to pass the deal. Since last Saturday Nick Boles threatened to pull his support because of comments one Brexiteer made, Vaizey said he'd pull support today because one government statement wasn't to his liking, De Piero said she was working towards a Customs Union all along and Lisa Nandy is Lisa Nandy.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    In lighter news, this thread is genius...

    https://twitter.com/MegClement/status/1186368272037494785
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Scott_P said:
    Also shown in him bragging about Parliament voting for his deal by a healthy majority one minute, then back to saying Parliament are blocking Brexit the next...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    Scott_P said:

    ydoethur said:

    It’s called ‘silly buggers’ and he learned it on the playing fields of Eton.

    Just as the Supreme Court told the Government not to take the piss, the EU should do the same.

    Announce January 31st and be done with it
    Yes, I think that is the most likely course of action for them right now.
  • HYUFD said:
    Does Ken want more time so that he can read the BorisDeal ?

    Unlike the Maastricht Treaty :wink:
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Scott_P said:
    That is insanity.
  • So the remain alliance has successfully taken the blame for an extension instead of Boris and, legally, based on what is coming out of the EU, an extension up to 31 Jan will now be agreed to because the EU will offer nothing else.

    There’s no time for a referendum so Boris either gets an election or his deal gets through in a panic as we move towards 31 Jan.

    Strategic geniuses, these remainers.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    kle4 said:

    Endillion said:

    So it was fine to force the Benn Act nonsense through both houses in a day from scratch, casually whacking multiple well-established precedents out of existence in the process, but taking several times as long to finalise a bill they've already approved in principle and spent about a year discussing is totally out of the question. Have I understood correctly? What on earth is wrong with these people?

    I think the Opposition would accept that the WAIB was subjected to the same length of time of Parliamentary scrutiny as the Benn-Burt Act in proportion to the length of the Bill. How many dozens of sitting days would that result in?
    2-3 months if not including guidance notes?
    With a Christmas recess we might even need longer than 31st Jan!
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Two questions:
    1. What's going to happen to to all those 31/10/2019 Brexit 50p pieces?
    2. Has the government stopped wasting money on the Get Ready for Brexit ads yet?

    Third question:
    3 Can UK taxpayers sue a PM who so flagrantly wastes public money?

    I fear they've got legal immunity but councillors who disregard their officials' advice can be surcharged.
    I actually went into this in some detail after the referendum and the pound crashed. I was told that I could sue but they have more money than me and it would be like pissing into the wind. I won’t name the the learned and noble friend who offered me his advice for free.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329

    Fourth night in Barca. Went to the Sagrada Familia again, going inside this time. Quite spectacular when the sun shines through the stained glass. Also experienced first bit of serious rain since arriving but it didn't last long. Also visited Gaudi's Casa Battlo, Casa Mila, Park Guell, the Olympic Park, harbour area, Museum of Catalan Art and a very ornate former hospital. Also saw the Nude Camp stadium from outside at any rate. Are you kids still arguing about Brexit? 😂

    Nude Camp sounds like fun :wink: (More fun than Brexit anyway!)

    I prefer the way the Spanish say it - Camp nude.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138

    By the way, as an aside, Jeremy Corbyn did well today.

    He's toxic, for sure, but sometimes he can perform very well. Bear this in mind when you're shelling out your bets ahead of the General Election campaign.

    He can perform well.


    When he wants to.
  • humbuggerhumbugger Posts: 377
    We are not leaving the EU at all unless we have a GE or the EU tells this Parliament no more extensions. There's no point progressing the WAB in this Parliament as MPs will always find some reason, device or tactic to delay implementation.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    So the remain alliance has successfully taken the blame for an extension instead of Boris and, legally, based on what is coming out of the EU, an extension up to 31 Jan will now be agreed to because the EU will offer nothing else.

    There’s no time for a referendum so Boris either gets an election or his deal gets through in a panic as we move towards 31 Jan.

    Strategic geniuses, these remainers.

    Alternatively, we get a super-soft Brexit that the Lisa Nandy faction can swallow (and that the ERG resign themselves to as the only Brexit on offer); or Parliament forces Boris to extend again once we get close to 31st Jan.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:
    It’s called ‘silly buggers’ and he learned it on the playing fields of Eton.
    It's called an unwritten constitution.

    Do what you like unless someone more powerful and influential stops you.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    So the remain alliance has successfully taken the blame for an extension instead of Boris and, legally, based on what is coming out of the EU, an extension up to 31 Jan will now be agreed to because the EU will offer nothing else.

    There’s no time for a referendum so Boris either gets an election or his deal gets through in a panic as we move towards 31 Jan.

    Strategic geniuses, these remainers.

    Give me one sane reason apart from get it done why MPs should just vote for any old shit Al Johnson puts before them?
  • Two questions:
    1. What's going to happen to to all those 31/10/2019 Brexit 50p pieces?
    2. Has the government stopped wasting money on the Get Ready for Brexit ads yet?

    Third question:
    3 Can UK taxpayers sue a PM who so flagrantly wastes public money?

    I fear they've got legal immunity but councillors who disregard their officials' advice can be surcharged.
    We should be suing the MPs who keep preventing a Deal.
  • Danny565 said:

    So the remain alliance has successfully taken the blame for an extension instead of Boris and, legally, based on what is coming out of the EU, an extension up to 31 Jan will now be agreed to because the EU will offer nothing else.

    There’s no time for a referendum so Boris either gets an election or his deal gets through in a panic as we move towards 31 Jan.

    Strategic geniuses, these remainers.

    Alternatively, we get a super-soft Brexit that the Lisa Nandy faction can swallow (and that the ERG resign themselves to as the only Brexit on offer); or Parliament forces Boris to extend again once we get close to 31st Jan.
    Why does no one on either side of the argument get the fact that nothing done now can define what “type “ of Brexit we get? All that can be done is to insert something into the PD and into our withdrawal act. The former means nothing and the latter can be overwritten by whatever Gvt is in power in 4-5 years as we close in on a trade deal.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Strategic geniuses, these remainers.

    Yet here we are, still in the EU..
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    So the remain alliance has successfully taken the blame for an extension instead of Boris and, legally, based on what is coming out of the EU, an extension up to 31 Jan will now be agreed to because the EU will offer nothing else.

    There’s no time for a referendum so Boris either gets an election or his deal gets through in a panic as we move towards 31 Jan.

    Strategic geniuses, these remainers.

    Well the UK still hasn't left the EU more than 3 years after the referendum. And it is not leaving on 31 October. Remainers might not all be strategic geniuses but they have got their way, so far.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,691
    nunuone said:

    By the way, as an aside, Jeremy Corbyn did well today.

    He's toxic, for sure, but sometimes he can perform very well. Bear this in mind when you're shelling out your bets ahead of the General Election campaign.

    He can perform well.


    When he wants to.
    Well, lets look forward to that then.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,427
    humbugger said:

    We are not leaving the EU at all unless we have a GE or the EU tells this Parliament no more extensions. There's no point progressing the WAB in this Parliament as MPs will always find some reason, device or tactic to delay implementation.
    And thank God for that. At least some of them are looking out for our wellbeing.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    edited October 2019
    Danny565 said:

    So the remain alliance has successfully taken the blame for an extension instead of Boris and, legally, based on what is coming out of the EU, an extension up to 31 Jan will now be agreed to because the EU will offer nothing else.

    There’s no time for a referendum so Boris either gets an election or his deal gets through in a panic as we move towards 31 Jan.

    Strategic geniuses, these remainers.

    Alternatively, we get a super-soft Brexit that the Lisa Nandy faction can swallow (and that the ERG resign themselves to as the only Brexit on offer); or Parliament forces Boris to extend again once we get close to 31st Jan.
    The deal is the only one on offer and will not be reopened by the EU

    The choice is to pass this deal, GE or no deal on 31st January so we are back to where we were
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,427

    Danny565 said:

    So the remain alliance has successfully taken the blame for an extension instead of Boris and, legally, based on what is coming out of the EU, an extension up to 31 Jan will now be agreed to because the EU will offer nothing else.

    There’s no time for a referendum so Boris either gets an election or his deal gets through in a panic as we move towards 31 Jan.

    Strategic geniuses, these remainers.

    Alternatively, we get a super-soft Brexit that the Lisa Nandy faction can swallow (and that the ERG resign themselves to as the only Brexit on offer); or Parliament forces Boris to extend again once we get close to 31st Jan.
    The deal is the only one on offer and will not be reopened by the EU

    The choice is to pass this deal, GE or no deal on 31st January so se are back to where we were
    We’ve heard that before...
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited October 2019

    Danny565 said:

    So the remain alliance has successfully taken the blame for an extension instead of Boris and, legally, based on what is coming out of the EU, an extension up to 31 Jan will now be agreed to because the EU will offer nothing else.

    There’s no time for a referendum so Boris either gets an election or his deal gets through in a panic as we move towards 31 Jan.

    Strategic geniuses, these remainers.

    Alternatively, we get a super-soft Brexit that the Lisa Nandy faction can swallow (and that the ERG resign themselves to as the only Brexit on offer); or Parliament forces Boris to extend again once we get close to 31st Jan.
    Why does no one on either side of the argument get the fact that nothing done now can define what “type “ of Brexit we get? All that can be done is to insert something into the PD and into our withdrawal act. The former means nothing and the latter can be overwritten by whatever Gvt is in power in 4-5 years as we close in on a trade deal.
    Well, that is a risk, admittedly.

    But then, if the Tories really are that confident that a Customs Union commitment can be cancelled easily (because an election will definitely get triggered somehow, the Tories will definitely win a landslide, Parliament will then definitely repeal the CU law) then doesn't that beg the question why the Tories are so desperate that the Customs Union DOESN'T get put into the current Withdrawal Bill?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    Scott_P said:
    And yet Boris's lead grows bigger and bigger... :)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    edited October 2019
    humbugger said:

    We are not leaving the EU at all unless we have a GE or the EU tells this Parliament no more extensions. There's no point progressing the WAB in this Parliament as MPs will always find some reason, device or tactic to delay implementation.
    We could easily leave the EU if the government were brave enough to put their deal to the people in a referendum... I suspect they would win easily.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    Whatever. Let the cowards keep Boris in office until 2022, and he'll still smash them in a GE then.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,772
    Ok, I’ve now digested the events of today.

    Some thoughts:

    1. The merry-go-round of doom stutters on.

    2. Boris has weakened himself by not pulling the bill. By not following through with the threat, he emboldens those who were looking to amend the legislation - he becomes the boy who cried wolf. This will not auger well for passage of this legislation.

    3. If the EU offer an extension until the end of January, this probably kills Brexit this side of a general election. The urgency will vanish. MPs will be more likely to play silly games.

    4. Corbyn is clearly holding out for a break of Boris’ promise to be out by 31st. If he gets it, I think Labour will wait for the mood to be tested in a couple of polls, but could then move to supporting a GE.

    5. A GE campaign over Christmas with a vote in January is going to be hideously messy. However, avoiding it is going to be very perilous for labour. As each day goes by, they grow weaker (unless post 31st polling shows a shift).

    6. The public won’t take kindly to being sent out to vote in freezing temperatures in January. Who benefits? Difficult to say at this point.

    7. On balance the odds have to be that we leave the EU with this deal. But still a fair bit of uncertainty swilling around.

    8. I wonder how Oliver Letwin feels this evening...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,892
    Looks like the public want to remain in the EU with a mahoosive Tory majority
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    edited October 2019
    Scott_P said:
    Parlament will be prorogued for an election by then?
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,123
    edited October 2019
    humbugger said:

    We are not leaving the EU at all unless we have a GE or the EU tells this Parliament no more extensions. There's no point progressing the WAB in this Parliament as MPs will always find some reason, device or tactic to delay implementation.
    Really? I actually think that if Johnson hadn't got so much skin and macho pride in the 31 October game, this would get through.

    They've voted for the principle of it and, although the scrutiny entailed in spending more than two minutes going clause by clause would be a bit of a ball-ache, it's perfectly doable.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Scott_P said:
    OMG absolute gold.

    Replace him with some Momentum-ite and lose The People's Republic of Morningside.
    I said some weeks ago that Murray will never lose Morningside. I regret that I was imprecise. I meant in an election against other parties. I didn't bank on him being defeated by Labour.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555

    Danny565 said:

    So the remain alliance has successfully taken the blame for an extension instead of Boris and, legally, based on what is coming out of the EU, an extension up to 31 Jan will now be agreed to because the EU will offer nothing else.

    There’s no time for a referendum so Boris either gets an election or his deal gets through in a panic as we move towards 31 Jan.

    Strategic geniuses, these remainers.

    Alternatively, we get a super-soft Brexit that the Lisa Nandy faction can swallow (and that the ERG resign themselves to as the only Brexit on offer); or Parliament forces Boris to extend again once we get close to 31st Jan.
    The deal is the only one on offer and will not be reopened by the EU

    The choice is to pass this deal, GE or no deal on 31st January so we are back to where we were
    You said that last time.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780

    AndyJS said:
    Deltapoll was one that Labour could cling to in the hope they wouldn't suffer a meltdown. Tory lead up from 3% to 13% in a month. 5% swing to the Tories. Think how many Labour seats have been lot as they've dicked around.

    Yes, and Panelbase was another. Now of the 10 firms that have reported VI in the last fortnight, I make it that 8 of them have the Conservatives in the range of 35% to 39%. ComRes and Survation are the two exceptions at 33% (on a GB basis in Survation's case).

    Johnson gained the support of the majority of Conservative MPs not least because most of them seemed to be facing with the end of their political careers back around the start of June. The Brexit Party, Labour, and the LDs all took turns to lead in consecutive polls and the Conservatives were polling at sub 20%. Johnson was seen as the one person who could turn around the Conservatives' fortunes. At the moment their judgement seems to have been vindicated.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Pulpstar said:

    Looks like the public want to remain in the EU with a mahoosive Tory majority

    Deltapoll must have surveyed @Richard_Nabavi a lot of times...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Pulpstar said:

    Looks like the public want to remain in the EU with a mahoosive Tory majority

    That’s quite an indictment of Corbyn.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,691

    humbugger said:

    We are not leaving the EU at all unless we have a GE or the EU tells this Parliament no more extensions. There's no point progressing the WAB in this Parliament as MPs will always find some reason, device or tactic to delay implementation.
    We could easily leave the EU if the government were brave enough to put their deal to the people in a referendum... I suspect they would win easily.
    We left. We voted to leave. We haven't found it so easy to actually leave.

    Let's just agree we left.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    Let's unpack those parentheses: "prob flexible". What does that mean?
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    And yet Boris's lead grows bigger and bigger... :)
    So why is he not calling for an election? Corbyn has said he will support one when the extension is in place, which should be by next week, so what's Johnson waiting for?
  • Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:
    That is insanity.
    I've no time for Murray at all, but he has a big personal vote in that seat, and would be the last man standing at a GE.

    Morningside matrons aren't about to vote for whichever scruffy Corbynite Unite are hoping to dredge up.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    Pulpstar said:

    Looks like the public want to remain in the EU with a mahoosive Tory majority

    The lesson continental Eurosceptics learnt from Brexit is never put yourself in a position where people actually expect you to leave the EU.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586

    Surely Boris will have to resign then. It would be simply unthinkable that he remains in position if we haven't left by the 31st given his promises. A man of such integrity wouldn't just brazenly ignore it.
    Boris is not resigning anytime soon

    He has united the conservative party
    You said that too... about Theresa May.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    The chance of avoiding another EU council summit is probably very appealing .
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Omnium said:

    humbugger said:

    We are not leaving the EU at all unless we have a GE or the EU tells this Parliament no more extensions. There's no point progressing the WAB in this Parliament as MPs will always find some reason, device or tactic to delay implementation.
    We could easily leave the EU if the government were brave enough to put their deal to the people in a referendum... I suspect they would win easily.
    We left. We voted to leave. We haven't found it so easy to actually leave.

    Let's just agree we left.
    Even then the mp's would wreck it
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    edited October 2019

    Ok, I’ve now digested the events of today.

    Some thoughts:

    1. The merry-go-round of doom stutters on.

    2. Boris has weakened himself by not pulling the bill. By not following through with the threat, he emboldens those who were looking to amend the legislation - he becomes the boy who cried wolf. This will not auger well for passage of this legislation.

    3. If the EU offer an extension until the end of January, this probably kills Brexit this side of a general election. The urgency will vanish. MPs will be more likely to play silly games.

    4. Corbyn is clearly holding out for a break of Boris’ promise to be out by 31st. If he gets it, I think Labour will wait for the mood to be tested in a couple of polls, but could then move to supporting a GE.

    5. A GE campaign over Christmas with a vote in January is going to be hideously messy. However, avoiding it is going to be very perilous for labour. As each day goes by, they grow weaker (unless post 31st polling shows a shift).

    6. The public won’t take kindly to being sent out to vote in freezing temperatures in January. Who benefits? Difficult to say at this point.

    7. On balance the odds have to be that we leave the EU with this deal. But still a fair bit of uncertainty swilling around.

    8. I wonder how Oliver Letwin feels this evening...

    Why are you assuming Labour gets a say on an election one way or another?

    Con + SNP is enough to get a one line election bill through Parliament whatever Labour does.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    https://twitter.com/LibDems/status/1186726415208734720

    Lib Dems sticking a knife into Corbyn.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Looks like the public want to remain in the EU with a mahoosive Tory majority

    That’s quite an indictment of Corbyn.
    who would have thought turning us into Venezuela including the anti semitism wasn't a vote winner
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    Noo said:

    Let's unpack those parentheses: "prob flexible". What does that mean?
    Suspect it means they'd be willing to revise it to an earlier exit once the deal is ratified on both sides.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    GIN1138 said:

    Ok, I’ve now digested the events of today.

    Some thoughts:

    1. The merry-go-round of doom stutters on.

    2. Boris has weakened himself by not pulling the bill. By not following through with the threat, he emboldens those who were looking to amend the legislation - he becomes the boy who cried wolf. This will not auger well for passage of this legislation.

    3. If the EU offer an extension until the end of January, this probably kills Brexit this side of a general election. The urgency will vanish. MPs will be more likely to play silly games.

    4. Corbyn is clearly holding out for a break of Boris’ promise to be out by 31st. If he gets it, I think Labour will wait for the mood to be tested in a couple of polls, but could then move to supporting a GE.

    5. A GE campaign over Christmas with a vote in January is going to be hideously messy. However, avoiding it is going to be very perilous for labour. As each day goes by, they grow weaker (unless post 31st polling shows a shift).

    6. The public won’t take kindly to being sent out to vote in freezing temperatures in January. Who benefits? Difficult to say at this point.

    7. On balance the odds have to be that we leave the EU with this deal. But still a fair bit of uncertainty swilling around.

    8. I wonder how Oliver Letwin feels this evening...

    Why are you assuming Labout gets a say on an electio one way or another?

    Con + SNP is enough to get a one line election bill through Parliament whatever Labour does.
    And the House of Lords?
  • Danny565 said:

    So the remain alliance has successfully taken the blame for an extension instead of Boris and, legally, based on what is coming out of the EU, an extension up to 31 Jan will now be agreed to because the EU will offer nothing else.

    There’s no time for a referendum so Boris either gets an election or his deal gets through in a panic as we move towards 31 Jan.

    Strategic geniuses, these remainers.

    Alternatively, we get a super-soft Brexit that the Lisa Nandy faction can swallow (and that the ERG resign themselves to as the only Brexit on offer); or Parliament forces Boris to extend again once we get close to 31st Jan.
    The deal is the only one on offer and will not be reopened by the EU

    The choice is to pass this deal, GE or no deal on 31st January so se are back to where we were
    We’ve heard that before...
    But that is the logical pathway and if the EU confirm the extension expect Boris to call an immediate GE with the full backing of the SNP as confirmed by Stephen Gethins today

    There is no way Corbyn will be able to stonewall, indeed I expect he will be pleased to try to become PM as he knows he has no route to it in this HOC
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:
    It’s called ‘silly buggers’ and he learned it on the playing fields of Eton.
    Is Boris going for no deal? No legislation, he's not going to ask for an extension, EU won't offer one unasked... :(
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    As I’ve said all along. Beyond that I haven’t got a clue.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    Floater said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Looks like the public want to remain in the EU with a mahoosive Tory majority

    That’s quite an indictment of Corbyn.
    who would have thought turning us into Venezuela including the anti semitism wasn't a vote winner
    He probably saw how successful racism has been for Farage and his Leave.EU cronies and decided to tap into that.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    AndyJS said:
    Deltapoll was one that Labour could cling to in the hope they wouldn't suffer a meltdown. Tory lead up from 3% to 13% in a month. 5% swing to the Tories. Think how many Labour seats have been lot as they've dicked around.

    ComRes and Panelbase have also tended to be closer - it will be interesting to see the next iteration of those two.

    In any event there is not going to be a GE before next spring imo. A lot could happen between now and the GE.
    A February election would not surprise me at all.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153

    GIN1138 said:

    Ok, I’ve now digested the events of today.

    Some thoughts:

    1. The merry-go-round of doom stutters on.

    2. Boris has weakened himself by not pulling the bill. By not following through with the threat, he emboldens those who were looking to amend the legislation - he becomes the boy who cried wolf. This will not auger well for passage of this legislation.

    3. If the EU offer an extension until the end of January, this probably kills Brexit this side of a general election. The urgency will vanish. MPs will be more likely to play silly games.

    4. Corbyn is clearly holding out for a break of Boris’ promise to be out by 31st. If he gets it, I think Labour will wait for the mood to be tested in a couple of polls, but could then move to supporting a GE.

    5. A GE campaign over Christmas with a vote in January is going to be hideously messy. However, avoiding it is going to be very perilous for labour. As each day goes by, they grow weaker (unless post 31st polling shows a shift).

    6. The public won’t take kindly to being sent out to vote in freezing temperatures in January. Who benefits? Difficult to say at this point.

    7. On balance the odds have to be that we leave the EU with this deal. But still a fair bit of uncertainty swilling around.

    8. I wonder how Oliver Letwin feels this evening...

    Why are you assuming Labout gets a say on an electio one way or another?

    Con + SNP is enough to get a one line election bill through Parliament whatever Labour does.
    And the House of Lords?
    HoL to block a general election? I don't think so. ;)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,872
    edited October 2019
    Scott_P said:
    Dont know why he doesnt push the deal timetable, since if it looks like winning labour VONC and he'll get his election.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,358

    GIN1138 said:

    Ok, I’ve now digested the events of today.

    Some thoughts:

    1. The merry-go-round of doom stutters on.

    2. Boris has weakened himself by not pulling the bill. By not following through with the threat, he emboldens those who were looking to amend the legislation - he becomes the boy who cried wolf. This will not auger well for passage of this legislation.

    3. If the EU offer an extension until the end of January, this probably kills Brexit this side of a general election. The urgency will vanish. MPs will be more likely to play silly games.

    4. Corbyn is clearly holding out for a break of Boris’ promise to be out by 31st. If he gets it, I think Labour will wait for the mood to be tested in a couple of polls, but could then move to supporting a GE.

    5. A GE campaign over Christmas with a vote in January is going to be hideously messy. However, avoiding it is going to be very perilous for labour. As each day goes by, they grow weaker (unless post 31st polling shows a shift).

    6. The public won’t take kindly to being sent out to vote in freezing temperatures in January. Who benefits? Difficult to say at this point.

    7. On balance the odds have to be that we leave the EU with this deal. But still a fair bit of uncertainty swilling around.

    8. I wonder how Oliver Letwin feels this evening...

    Why are you assuming Labout gets a say on an electio one way or another?

    Con + SNP is enough to get a one line election bill through Parliament whatever Labour does.
    And the House of Lords?
    Right, as well as Brexit, let's throw the unelected Lords into the mix of blocking an election the Commons has voted for.

    The Lords will acquiesce.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Noo said:

    Let's unpack those parentheses: "prob flexible". What does that mean?
    Suspect it means they'd be willing to revise it to an earlier exit once the deal is ratified on both sides.
    Makes sense, thanks
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    Scott_P said:
    Then give a final extension of 2 weeks you utter pillocks. It's the only way this Parliament will ever pass anything of substance!
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Noo said:

    Strategic geniuses, these remainers.

    Yet here we are, still in the EU..
    win the battle lose the war
This discussion has been closed.