By the way, as an aside, Jeremy Corbyn did well today.
He's toxic, for sure, but sometimes he can perform very well. Bear this in mind when you're shelling out your bets ahead of the General Election campaign.
Yes, Labour played this well. They gave tacit approval to those who wanted vote for the second reading but ensured that enough of them voted against the timetable in the knowledge that this would have the desired effect - Johnson has to accept the extension and it's now very unlikely his deal will pass.
If BoZo does request a different date I am not sure the Courts will be happy
He can’t if they offer31/1 he has to accept it if they were to offer a different date then it’s up to the commons. The best thing if you want out is for them to refuse an extension but you risk no deal or revoke.
1) Are the people who were outraged that Trump won despite receiving fewer votes equally outraged that Trudeau did as well ?
2) Can those people who proclaim the sanctity of the GFA explain why the continued failure to agree a functioning NI assembly and executive doesn't mean the GFA is no longer fit for purpose ?
3) There were seven different types of British apples on sale this evening in Tesco - looks like the claims about them all rotting in the orchards have as little validity as those about strawberries.
Two questions: 1. What's going to happen to to all those 31/10/2019 Brexit 50p pieces? 2. Has the government stopped wasting money on the Get Ready for Brexit ads yet?
Third question: 3 Can UK taxpayers sue a PM who so flagrantly wastes public money?
I fear they've got legal immunity but councillors who disregard their officials' advice can be surcharged.
1) Are the people who were outraged that Trump won despite receiving fewer votes equally outraged that Trudeau did as well ?
2) Can those people who proclaim the sanctity of the GFA explain why the continued failure to agree a functioning NI assembly and executive doesn't mean the GFA is no longer fit for purpose ?
3) There were seven different types of British apples on sale this evening in Tesco - looks like the claims about them all rotting in the orchards have as little validity as those about strawberries.
1 of course not (though to be fair even Hillary accepted defeat on the US system as Scheer did on the Canadian system).
The issue in 2000 was over Florida's electoral college votes, Gore's popular vote win was irrelevant
Deltapoll was one that Labour could cling to in the hope they wouldn't suffer a meltdown. Tory lead up from 3% to 13% in a month. 5% swing to the Tories. Think how many Labour seats have been lot as they've dicked around.
So it was fine to force the Benn Act nonsense through both houses in a day from scratch, casually whacking multiple well-established precedents out of existence in the process, but taking several times as long to finalise a bill they've already approved in principle and spent about a year discussing is totally out of the question. Have I understood correctly? What on earth is wrong with these people?
I think the Opposition would accept that the WAIB was subjected to the same length of time of Parliamentary scrutiny as the Benn-Burt Act in proportion to the length of the Bill. How many dozens of sitting days would that result in?
1) Are the people who were outraged that Trump won despite receiving fewer votes equally outraged that Trudeau did as well ?
2) Can those people who proclaim the sanctity of the GFA explain why the continued failure to agree a functioning NI assembly and executive doesn't mean the GFA is no longer fit for purpose ?
3) There were seven different types of British apples on sale this evening in Tesco - looks like the claims about them all rotting in the orchards have as little validity as those about strawberries.
Oh goodie, I miss your strawberry updates.
Had a quick glance at them as well - Aberdeenshire, Herefordshire, Kent and West Sussex today.
I'm amazed they're still going at the end of October.
I have been amazed through this Brexit at how often either side has contrived to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Four weeks ago, the Opposition had Johnson on the ropes. They could have struck, but chose instead to toy with him. This led to the surprise of Johnson securing a deal.
Up until Friday I thought we were 'on' to Brexit. All Johnson needed to do was accept a short technical extension of a few weeks and his deal would almost certainly have passed. Even today he could have done that. But thanks to his utterly ridiculous self-imposed deadline he has totally screwed this up.
A race to see who cocks up the least first.
If Nov 15 is now possible just put in a new programme for then, saying no need to go all way to Jan. Do or die.
Deltapoll was one that Labour could cling to in the hope they wouldn't suffer a meltdown. Tory lead up from 3% to 13% in a month. 5% swing to the Tories. Think how many Labour seats have been lot as they've dicked around.
ComRes and Panelbase have also tended to be closer - it will be interesting to see the next iteration of those two.
In any event there is not going to be a GE before next spring imo. A lot could happen between now and the GE.
So it was fine to force the Benn Act nonsense through both houses in a day from scratch, casually whacking multiple well-established precedents out of existence in the process, but taking several times as long to finalise a bill they've already approved in principle and spent about a year discussing is totally out of the question. Have I understood correctly? What on earth is wrong with these people?
I think the Opposition would accept that the WAIB was subjected to the same length of time of Parliamentary scrutiny as the Benn-Burt Act in proportion to the length of the Bill. How many dozens of sitting days would that result in?
If BoZo does request a different date I am not sure the Courts will be happy
S3(4) of the Benn Act:. Nothing in this section shall prevent the Prime Minister from agreeing to an extension of the period specified in Article 50(3) of the Treaty on European Union otherwise than in accordance with this section.
So it was fine to force the Benn Act nonsense through both houses in a day from scratch, casually whacking multiple well-established precedents out of existence in the process, but taking several times as long to finalise a bill they've already approved in principle and spent about a year discussing is totally out of the question. Have I understood correctly? What on earth is wrong with these people?
I think the Opposition would accept that the WAIB was subjected to the same length of time of Parliamentary scrutiny as the Benn-Burt Act in proportion to the length of the Bill. How many dozens of sitting days would that result in?
The ‘experts’ said normally such a bill would require 37 sitting days to do its job correctly. Unable to provide citation but that’s what they said. I can think of several thing that are unacceptable in the bill which should be removed without altering the substantive even before it gets amended.
1) Are the people who were outraged that Trump won despite receiving fewer votes equally outraged that Trudeau did as well ?
2) Can those people who proclaim the sanctity of the GFA explain why the continued failure to agree a functioning NI assembly and executive doesn't mean the GFA is no longer fit for purpose ?
3) There were seven different types of British apples on sale this evening in Tesco - looks like the claims about them all rotting in the orchards have as little validity as those about strawberries.
Oh goodie, I miss your strawberry updates.
Had a quick glance at them as well - Aberdeenshire, Herefordshire, Kent and West Sussex today.
I'm amazed they're still going at the end of October.
So it was fine to force the Benn Act nonsense through both houses in a day from scratch, casually whacking multiple well-established precedents out of existence in the process, but taking several times as long to finalise a bill they've already approved in principle and spent about a year discussing is totally out of the question. Have I understood correctly? What on earth is wrong with these people?
FFS! The Benn Bill was two pages... The WAB is 110 pages plus 125 pages of explanatory notes!
But as mentioned above most of the deal has already been debated. To death.
Are we really suggesting if an EU country said it was going to veto and it would be No Deal or the deal then they would say it can’t be done. Clearly not.
The Benn act set out approval of an indicative vote by the house on 19th October knowing a deal would only come back from EU summit on 17th. Did they provide too little time? Was the 19th to the 31st too short? If so why did the Benn act not specify an earlier date?
When is an opposition party going to vote no confidence in the prime minister. He does not have the confidence of the house. He cannot get business through the house. The opposition keep on inflicting defeats thinking they are being clever but their main job is to replace a government that is not functioning, by supercession or election.
What next? Two more years of this nonsense because they are scared to lose their jobs? Corbyn said once no deal was secured then the election he was asking for daily could be held. Is there any chance of this happening anytime soon?
If BoZo does request a different date I am not sure the Courts will be happy
He can’t if they offer31/1 he has to accept it if they were to offer a different date then it’s up to the commons. The best thing if you want out is for them to refuse an extension but you risk no deal or revoke.
The extension can be terminated early when the Bill passes, as indeed could the current one.
My reading of the bill is that, after he's sent the letter, Boris's only legal duty after that concerns his reaction if/when the EU offers an extension date (if they offer 31st Jan, he's legally required to accept on the spot; if they offer another date, he's legally required to put it to a binding Commons vote within two days).
Not quite, though this is a distinction without a difference -- if they offer another date, he's required to accept unless he puts it to a Commons vote and the Commons reject it; but he's allowed to accept without consulting the Commons. Since he's not about to voluntarily agree any extension it comes out to the same thing...
So it was fine to force the Benn Act nonsense through both houses in a day from scratch, casually whacking multiple well-established precedents out of existence in the process, but taking several times as long to finalise a bill they've already approved in principle and spent about a year discussing is totally out of the question. Have I understood correctly? What on earth is wrong with these people?
FFS! The Benn Bill was two pages... The WAB is 110 pages plus 125 pages of explanatory notes!
But as mentioned above most of the deal has already been debated. To death.
Are we really suggesting if an EU country said it was going to veto and it would be No Deal or the deal then they would say it can’t be done. Clearly not.
The Benn act set out approval of an indicative vote by the house on 19th October knowing a deal would only come back from EU summit on 17th. Did they provide too little time? Was the 19th to the 31st too short? If so why did the Benn act not specify an earlier date?
When is an opposition party going to vote no confidence in the prime minister. He does not have the confidence of the house. He cannot get business through the house. The opposition keep on inflicting defeats thinking they are being clever but their main job is to replace a government that is not functioning, by supercession or election.
What next? Two more years of this nonsense because they are scared to lose their jobs? Corbyn said once no deal was secured then the election he was asking for daily could be held. Is there any chance of this happening anytime soon?
I have been amazed through this Brexit at how often either side has contrived to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Four weeks ago, the Opposition had Johnson on the ropes. They could have struck, but chose instead to toy with him. This led to the surprise of Johnson securing a deal.
Up until Friday I thought we were 'on' to Brexit. All Johnson needed to do was accept a short technical extension of a few weeks and his deal would almost certainly have passed. Even today he could have done that. But thanks to his utterly ridiculous self-imposed deadline he has totally screwed this up.
This parliament will never sign off Brexit when it comes to the crunch. Just look at some of those who are needed to pass the deal. Since last Saturday Nick Boles threatened to pull his support because of comments one Brexiteer made, Vaizey said he'd pull support today because one government statement wasn't to his liking, De Piero said she was working towards a Customs Union all along and Lisa Nandy is Lisa Nandy.
Also shown in him bragging about Parliament voting for his deal by a healthy majority one minute, then back to saying Parliament are blocking Brexit the next...
So the remain alliance has successfully taken the blame for an extension instead of Boris and, legally, based on what is coming out of the EU, an extension up to 31 Jan will now be agreed to because the EU will offer nothing else.
There’s no time for a referendum so Boris either gets an election or his deal gets through in a panic as we move towards 31 Jan.
So it was fine to force the Benn Act nonsense through both houses in a day from scratch, casually whacking multiple well-established precedents out of existence in the process, but taking several times as long to finalise a bill they've already approved in principle and spent about a year discussing is totally out of the question. Have I understood correctly? What on earth is wrong with these people?
I think the Opposition would accept that the WAIB was subjected to the same length of time of Parliamentary scrutiny as the Benn-Burt Act in proportion to the length of the Bill. How many dozens of sitting days would that result in?
2-3 months if not including guidance notes?
With a Christmas recess we might even need longer than 31st Jan!
Two questions: 1. What's going to happen to to all those 31/10/2019 Brexit 50p pieces? 2. Has the government stopped wasting money on the Get Ready for Brexit ads yet?
Third question: 3 Can UK taxpayers sue a PM who so flagrantly wastes public money?
I fear they've got legal immunity but councillors who disregard their officials' advice can be surcharged.
I actually went into this in some detail after the referendum and the pound crashed. I was told that I could sue but they have more money than me and it would be like pissing into the wind. I won’t name the the learned and noble friend who offered me his advice for free.
Fourth night in Barca. Went to the Sagrada Familia again, going inside this time. Quite spectacular when the sun shines through the stained glass. Also experienced first bit of serious rain since arriving but it didn't last long. Also visited Gaudi's Casa Battlo, Casa Mila, Park Guell, the Olympic Park, harbour area, Museum of Catalan Art and a very ornate former hospital. Also saw the Nude Camp stadium from outside at any rate. Are you kids still arguing about Brexit? 😂
Nude Camp sounds like fun (More fun than Brexit anyway!)
By the way, as an aside, Jeremy Corbyn did well today.
He's toxic, for sure, but sometimes he can perform very well. Bear this in mind when you're shelling out your bets ahead of the General Election campaign.
We are not leaving the EU at all unless we have a GE or the EU tells this Parliament no more extensions. There's no point progressing the WAB in this Parliament as MPs will always find some reason, device or tactic to delay implementation.
So the remain alliance has successfully taken the blame for an extension instead of Boris and, legally, based on what is coming out of the EU, an extension up to 31 Jan will now be agreed to because the EU will offer nothing else.
There’s no time for a referendum so Boris either gets an election or his deal gets through in a panic as we move towards 31 Jan.
Strategic geniuses, these remainers.
Alternatively, we get a super-soft Brexit that the Lisa Nandy faction can swallow (and that the ERG resign themselves to as the only Brexit on offer); or Parliament forces Boris to extend again once we get close to 31st Jan.
So the remain alliance has successfully taken the blame for an extension instead of Boris and, legally, based on what is coming out of the EU, an extension up to 31 Jan will now be agreed to because the EU will offer nothing else.
There’s no time for a referendum so Boris either gets an election or his deal gets through in a panic as we move towards 31 Jan.
Strategic geniuses, these remainers.
Give me one sane reason apart from get it done why MPs should just vote for any old shit Al Johnson puts before them?
Two questions: 1. What's going to happen to to all those 31/10/2019 Brexit 50p pieces? 2. Has the government stopped wasting money on the Get Ready for Brexit ads yet?
Third question: 3 Can UK taxpayers sue a PM who so flagrantly wastes public money?
I fear they've got legal immunity but councillors who disregard their officials' advice can be surcharged.
We should be suing the MPs who keep preventing a Deal.
So the remain alliance has successfully taken the blame for an extension instead of Boris and, legally, based on what is coming out of the EU, an extension up to 31 Jan will now be agreed to because the EU will offer nothing else.
There’s no time for a referendum so Boris either gets an election or his deal gets through in a panic as we move towards 31 Jan.
Strategic geniuses, these remainers.
Alternatively, we get a super-soft Brexit that the Lisa Nandy faction can swallow (and that the ERG resign themselves to as the only Brexit on offer); or Parliament forces Boris to extend again once we get close to 31st Jan.
Why does no one on either side of the argument get the fact that nothing done now can define what “type “ of Brexit we get? All that can be done is to insert something into the PD and into our withdrawal act. The former means nothing and the latter can be overwritten by whatever Gvt is in power in 4-5 years as we close in on a trade deal.
So the remain alliance has successfully taken the blame for an extension instead of Boris and, legally, based on what is coming out of the EU, an extension up to 31 Jan will now be agreed to because the EU will offer nothing else.
There’s no time for a referendum so Boris either gets an election or his deal gets through in a panic as we move towards 31 Jan.
Strategic geniuses, these remainers.
Well the UK still hasn't left the EU more than 3 years after the referendum. And it is not leaving on 31 October. Remainers might not all be strategic geniuses but they have got their way, so far.
By the way, as an aside, Jeremy Corbyn did well today.
He's toxic, for sure, but sometimes he can perform very well. Bear this in mind when you're shelling out your bets ahead of the General Election campaign.
We are not leaving the EU at all unless we have a GE or the EU tells this Parliament no more extensions. There's no point progressing the WAB in this Parliament as MPs will always find some reason, device or tactic to delay implementation.
And thank God for that. At least some of them are looking out for our wellbeing.
So the remain alliance has successfully taken the blame for an extension instead of Boris and, legally, based on what is coming out of the EU, an extension up to 31 Jan will now be agreed to because the EU will offer nothing else.
There’s no time for a referendum so Boris either gets an election or his deal gets through in a panic as we move towards 31 Jan.
Strategic geniuses, these remainers.
Alternatively, we get a super-soft Brexit that the Lisa Nandy faction can swallow (and that the ERG resign themselves to as the only Brexit on offer); or Parliament forces Boris to extend again once we get close to 31st Jan.
The deal is the only one on offer and will not be reopened by the EU
The choice is to pass this deal, GE or no deal on 31st January so we are back to where we were
So the remain alliance has successfully taken the blame for an extension instead of Boris and, legally, based on what is coming out of the EU, an extension up to 31 Jan will now be agreed to because the EU will offer nothing else.
There’s no time for a referendum so Boris either gets an election or his deal gets through in a panic as we move towards 31 Jan.
Strategic geniuses, these remainers.
Alternatively, we get a super-soft Brexit that the Lisa Nandy faction can swallow (and that the ERG resign themselves to as the only Brexit on offer); or Parliament forces Boris to extend again once we get close to 31st Jan.
The deal is the only one on offer and will not be reopened by the EU
The choice is to pass this deal, GE or no deal on 31st January so se are back to where we were
So the remain alliance has successfully taken the blame for an extension instead of Boris and, legally, based on what is coming out of the EU, an extension up to 31 Jan will now be agreed to because the EU will offer nothing else.
There’s no time for a referendum so Boris either gets an election or his deal gets through in a panic as we move towards 31 Jan.
Strategic geniuses, these remainers.
Alternatively, we get a super-soft Brexit that the Lisa Nandy faction can swallow (and that the ERG resign themselves to as the only Brexit on offer); or Parliament forces Boris to extend again once we get close to 31st Jan.
Why does no one on either side of the argument get the fact that nothing done now can define what “type “ of Brexit we get? All that can be done is to insert something into the PD and into our withdrawal act. The former means nothing and the latter can be overwritten by whatever Gvt is in power in 4-5 years as we close in on a trade deal.
Well, that is a risk, admittedly.
But then, if the Tories really are that confident that a Customs Union commitment can be cancelled easily (because an election will definitely get triggered somehow, the Tories will definitely win a landslide, Parliament will then definitely repeal the CU law) then doesn't that beg the question why the Tories are so desperate that the Customs Union DOESN'T get put into the current Withdrawal Bill?
We are not leaving the EU at all unless we have a GE or the EU tells this Parliament no more extensions. There's no point progressing the WAB in this Parliament as MPs will always find some reason, device or tactic to delay implementation.
We could easily leave the EU if the government were brave enough to put their deal to the people in a referendum... I suspect they would win easily.
2. Boris has weakened himself by not pulling the bill. By not following through with the threat, he emboldens those who were looking to amend the legislation - he becomes the boy who cried wolf. This will not auger well for passage of this legislation.
3. If the EU offer an extension until the end of January, this probably kills Brexit this side of a general election. The urgency will vanish. MPs will be more likely to play silly games.
4. Corbyn is clearly holding out for a break of Boris’ promise to be out by 31st. If he gets it, I think Labour will wait for the mood to be tested in a couple of polls, but could then move to supporting a GE.
5. A GE campaign over Christmas with a vote in January is going to be hideously messy. However, avoiding it is going to be very perilous for labour. As each day goes by, they grow weaker (unless post 31st polling shows a shift).
6. The public won’t take kindly to being sent out to vote in freezing temperatures in January. Who benefits? Difficult to say at this point.
7. On balance the odds have to be that we leave the EU with this deal. But still a fair bit of uncertainty swilling around.
8. I wonder how Oliver Letwin feels this evening...
We are not leaving the EU at all unless we have a GE or the EU tells this Parliament no more extensions. There's no point progressing the WAB in this Parliament as MPs will always find some reason, device or tactic to delay implementation.
Really? I actually think that if Johnson hadn't got so much skin and macho pride in the 31 October game, this would get through.
They've voted for the principle of it and, although the scrutiny entailed in spending more than two minutes going clause by clause would be a bit of a ball-ache, it's perfectly doable.
Replace him with some Momentum-ite and lose The People's Republic of Morningside.
I said some weeks ago that Murray will never lose Morningside. I regret that I was imprecise. I meant in an election against other parties. I didn't bank on him being defeated by Labour.
So the remain alliance has successfully taken the blame for an extension instead of Boris and, legally, based on what is coming out of the EU, an extension up to 31 Jan will now be agreed to because the EU will offer nothing else.
There’s no time for a referendum so Boris either gets an election or his deal gets through in a panic as we move towards 31 Jan.
Strategic geniuses, these remainers.
Alternatively, we get a super-soft Brexit that the Lisa Nandy faction can swallow (and that the ERG resign themselves to as the only Brexit on offer); or Parliament forces Boris to extend again once we get close to 31st Jan.
The deal is the only one on offer and will not be reopened by the EU
The choice is to pass this deal, GE or no deal on 31st January so we are back to where we were
Deltapoll was one that Labour could cling to in the hope they wouldn't suffer a meltdown. Tory lead up from 3% to 13% in a month. 5% swing to the Tories. Think how many Labour seats have been lot as they've dicked around.
Yes, and Panelbase was another. Now of the 10 firms that have reported VI in the last fortnight, I make it that 8 of them have the Conservatives in the range of 35% to 39%. ComRes and Survation are the two exceptions at 33% (on a GB basis in Survation's case).
Johnson gained the support of the majority of Conservative MPs not least because most of them seemed to be facing with the end of their political careers back around the start of June. The Brexit Party, Labour, and the LDs all took turns to lead in consecutive polls and the Conservatives were polling at sub 20%. Johnson was seen as the one person who could turn around the Conservatives' fortunes. At the moment their judgement seems to have been vindicated.
We are not leaving the EU at all unless we have a GE or the EU tells this Parliament no more extensions. There's no point progressing the WAB in this Parliament as MPs will always find some reason, device or tactic to delay implementation.
We could easily leave the EU if the government were brave enough to put their deal to the people in a referendum... I suspect they would win easily.
We left. We voted to leave. We haven't found it so easy to actually leave.
So why is he not calling for an election? Corbyn has said he will support one when the extension is in place, which should be by next week, so what's Johnson waiting for?
Surely Boris will have to resign then. It would be simply unthinkable that he remains in position if we haven't left by the 31st given his promises. A man of such integrity wouldn't just brazenly ignore it.
We are not leaving the EU at all unless we have a GE or the EU tells this Parliament no more extensions. There's no point progressing the WAB in this Parliament as MPs will always find some reason, device or tactic to delay implementation.
We could easily leave the EU if the government were brave enough to put their deal to the people in a referendum... I suspect they would win easily.
We left. We voted to leave. We haven't found it so easy to actually leave.
2. Boris has weakened himself by not pulling the bill. By not following through with the threat, he emboldens those who were looking to amend the legislation - he becomes the boy who cried wolf. This will not auger well for passage of this legislation.
3. If the EU offer an extension until the end of January, this probably kills Brexit this side of a general election. The urgency will vanish. MPs will be more likely to play silly games.
4. Corbyn is clearly holding out for a break of Boris’ promise to be out by 31st. If he gets it, I think Labour will wait for the mood to be tested in a couple of polls, but could then move to supporting a GE.
5. A GE campaign over Christmas with a vote in January is going to be hideously messy. However, avoiding it is going to be very perilous for labour. As each day goes by, they grow weaker (unless post 31st polling shows a shift).
6. The public won’t take kindly to being sent out to vote in freezing temperatures in January. Who benefits? Difficult to say at this point.
7. On balance the odds have to be that we leave the EU with this deal. But still a fair bit of uncertainty swilling around.
8. I wonder how Oliver Letwin feels this evening...
Why are you assuming Labour gets a say on an election one way or another?
Con + SNP is enough to get a one line election bill through Parliament whatever Labour does.
2. Boris has weakened himself by not pulling the bill. By not following through with the threat, he emboldens those who were looking to amend the legislation - he becomes the boy who cried wolf. This will not auger well for passage of this legislation.
3. If the EU offer an extension until the end of January, this probably kills Brexit this side of a general election. The urgency will vanish. MPs will be more likely to play silly games.
4. Corbyn is clearly holding out for a break of Boris’ promise to be out by 31st. If he gets it, I think Labour will wait for the mood to be tested in a couple of polls, but could then move to supporting a GE.
5. A GE campaign over Christmas with a vote in January is going to be hideously messy. However, avoiding it is going to be very perilous for labour. As each day goes by, they grow weaker (unless post 31st polling shows a shift).
6. The public won’t take kindly to being sent out to vote in freezing temperatures in January. Who benefits? Difficult to say at this point.
7. On balance the odds have to be that we leave the EU with this deal. But still a fair bit of uncertainty swilling around.
8. I wonder how Oliver Letwin feels this evening...
Why are you assuming Labout gets a say on an electio one way or another?
Con + SNP is enough to get a one line election bill through Parliament whatever Labour does.
So the remain alliance has successfully taken the blame for an extension instead of Boris and, legally, based on what is coming out of the EU, an extension up to 31 Jan will now be agreed to because the EU will offer nothing else.
There’s no time for a referendum so Boris either gets an election or his deal gets through in a panic as we move towards 31 Jan.
Strategic geniuses, these remainers.
Alternatively, we get a super-soft Brexit that the Lisa Nandy faction can swallow (and that the ERG resign themselves to as the only Brexit on offer); or Parliament forces Boris to extend again once we get close to 31st Jan.
The deal is the only one on offer and will not be reopened by the EU
The choice is to pass this deal, GE or no deal on 31st January so se are back to where we were
We’ve heard that before...
But that is the logical pathway and if the EU confirm the extension expect Boris to call an immediate GE with the full backing of the SNP as confirmed by Stephen Gethins today
There is no way Corbyn will be able to stonewall, indeed I expect he will be pleased to try to become PM as he knows he has no route to it in this HOC
Deltapoll was one that Labour could cling to in the hope they wouldn't suffer a meltdown. Tory lead up from 3% to 13% in a month. 5% swing to the Tories. Think how many Labour seats have been lot as they've dicked around.
ComRes and Panelbase have also tended to be closer - it will be interesting to see the next iteration of those two.
In any event there is not going to be a GE before next spring imo. A lot could happen between now and the GE.
2. Boris has weakened himself by not pulling the bill. By not following through with the threat, he emboldens those who were looking to amend the legislation - he becomes the boy who cried wolf. This will not auger well for passage of this legislation.
3. If the EU offer an extension until the end of January, this probably kills Brexit this side of a general election. The urgency will vanish. MPs will be more likely to play silly games.
4. Corbyn is clearly holding out for a break of Boris’ promise to be out by 31st. If he gets it, I think Labour will wait for the mood to be tested in a couple of polls, but could then move to supporting a GE.
5. A GE campaign over Christmas with a vote in January is going to be hideously messy. However, avoiding it is going to be very perilous for labour. As each day goes by, they grow weaker (unless post 31st polling shows a shift).
6. The public won’t take kindly to being sent out to vote in freezing temperatures in January. Who benefits? Difficult to say at this point.
7. On balance the odds have to be that we leave the EU with this deal. But still a fair bit of uncertainty swilling around.
8. I wonder how Oliver Letwin feels this evening...
Why are you assuming Labout gets a say on an electio one way or another?
Con + SNP is enough to get a one line election bill through Parliament whatever Labour does.
And the House of Lords?
HoL to block a general election? I don't think so.
2. Boris has weakened himself by not pulling the bill. By not following through with the threat, he emboldens those who were looking to amend the legislation - he becomes the boy who cried wolf. This will not auger well for passage of this legislation.
3. If the EU offer an extension until the end of January, this probably kills Brexit this side of a general election. The urgency will vanish. MPs will be more likely to play silly games.
4. Corbyn is clearly holding out for a break of Boris’ promise to be out by 31st. If he gets it, I think Labour will wait for the mood to be tested in a couple of polls, but could then move to supporting a GE.
5. A GE campaign over Christmas with a vote in January is going to be hideously messy. However, avoiding it is going to be very perilous for labour. As each day goes by, they grow weaker (unless post 31st polling shows a shift).
6. The public won’t take kindly to being sent out to vote in freezing temperatures in January. Who benefits? Difficult to say at this point.
7. On balance the odds have to be that we leave the EU with this deal. But still a fair bit of uncertainty swilling around.
8. I wonder how Oliver Letwin feels this evening...
Why are you assuming Labout gets a say on an electio one way or another?
Con + SNP is enough to get a one line election bill through Parliament whatever Labour does.
And the House of Lords?
Right, as well as Brexit, let's throw the unelected Lords into the mix of blocking an election the Commons has voted for.
Comments
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1185485165323313152?s=20
Or this one
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1185485189914464256?s=20
Boris surely has united the country.
3 Can UK taxpayers sue a PM who so flagrantly wastes public money?
I fear they've got legal immunity but councillors who disregard their officials' advice can be surcharged.
The issue in 2000 was over Florida's electoral college votes, Gore's popular vote win was irrelevant
I'm amazed they're still going at the end of October.
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1186721793496760320
I could have said that at any time. At any time it's been true.
If Nov 15 is now possible just put in a new programme for then, saying no need to go all way to Jan. Do or die.
https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1186722197378928641
https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1186722200210067461
In any event there is not going to be a GE before next spring imo. A lot could happen between now and the GE.
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1185485165323313152?s=20
Are we really suggesting if an EU country said it was going to veto and it would be No Deal or the deal then they would say it can’t be done. Clearly not.
The Benn act set out approval of an indicative vote by the house on 19th October knowing a deal would only come back from EU summit on 17th. Did they provide too little time? Was the 19th to the 31st too short? If so why did the Benn act not specify an earlier date?
When is an opposition party going to vote no confidence in the prime minister. He does not have the confidence of the house. He cannot get business through the house. The opposition keep on inflicting defeats thinking they are being clever but their main job is to replace a government that is not functioning, by supercession or election.
What next? Two more years of this nonsense because they are scared to lose their jobs? Corbyn said once no deal was secured then the election he was asking for daily could be held. Is there any chance of this happening anytime soon?
Replace him with some Momentum-ite and lose The People's Republic of Morningside.
Announce January 31st and be done with it
https://twitter.com/MegClement/status/1186368272037494785
Unlike the Maastricht Treaty
There’s no time for a referendum so Boris either gets an election or his deal gets through in a panic as we move towards 31 Jan.
Strategic geniuses, these remainers.
I prefer the way the Spanish say it - Camp nude.
When he wants to.
Do what you like unless someone more powerful and influential stops you.
The choice is to pass this deal, GE or no deal on 31st January so we are back to where we were
But then, if the Tories really are that confident that a Customs Union commitment can be cancelled easily (because an election will definitely get triggered somehow, the Tories will definitely win a landslide, Parliament will then definitely repeal the CU law) then doesn't that beg the question why the Tories are so desperate that the Customs Union DOESN'T get put into the current Withdrawal Bill?
Some thoughts:
1. The merry-go-round of doom stutters on.
2. Boris has weakened himself by not pulling the bill. By not following through with the threat, he emboldens those who were looking to amend the legislation - he becomes the boy who cried wolf. This will not auger well for passage of this legislation.
3. If the EU offer an extension until the end of January, this probably kills Brexit this side of a general election. The urgency will vanish. MPs will be more likely to play silly games.
4. Corbyn is clearly holding out for a break of Boris’ promise to be out by 31st. If he gets it, I think Labour will wait for the mood to be tested in a couple of polls, but could then move to supporting a GE.
5. A GE campaign over Christmas with a vote in January is going to be hideously messy. However, avoiding it is going to be very perilous for labour. As each day goes by, they grow weaker (unless post 31st polling shows a shift).
6. The public won’t take kindly to being sent out to vote in freezing temperatures in January. Who benefits? Difficult to say at this point.
7. On balance the odds have to be that we leave the EU with this deal. But still a fair bit of uncertainty swilling around.
8. I wonder how Oliver Letwin feels this evening...
They've voted for the principle of it and, although the scrutiny entailed in spending more than two minutes going clause by clause would be a bit of a ball-ache, it's perfectly doable.
Johnson gained the support of the majority of Conservative MPs not least because most of them seemed to be facing with the end of their political careers back around the start of June. The Brexit Party, Labour, and the LDs all took turns to lead in consecutive polls and the Conservatives were polling at sub 20%. Johnson was seen as the one person who could turn around the Conservatives' fortunes. At the moment their judgement seems to have been vindicated.
Let's just agree we left.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1186725977004621824
Morningside matrons aren't about to vote for whichever scruffy Corbynite Unite are hoping to dredge up.
Con + SNP is enough to get a one line election bill through Parliament whatever Labour does.
Lib Dems sticking a knife into Corbyn.
There is no way Corbyn will be able to stonewall, indeed I expect he will be pleased to try to become PM as he knows he has no route to it in this HOC
The Lords will acquiesce.