Conservative majority is now favourite for the next GE. Another case of hypothetical, pre campaign polls being reverse indicators, or will Boris buck the trend?
It's always possible that the polls are wrong, but by underestimating the trouble Labour are in.
Not just votes at 16, there's probably a majority in the Commons to give votes to EU citizens as well.
That would boost the Tories by another few percent when they promise to repeal votes at 16 and votes for EU citizens.
Why don't you think EU citizens would vote Conservative? Quite a few of the people I work with from EU countries have voted Conservative in local and Holyrood elections.
Whatever their normal political leanings, the great majority of them are hardly likely to vote Conservative if that means the UK leaving the EU, are they?
Why wouldn't they be? Do you think EU citizens living here are going to suffer from the UK leaving the EU?
You do like being utterly disingenuous, don't you?
It's a perfectly innocent question. If EU citizens already living here are going to be fine, then they should be as equally in favour of leaving the EU as UK citizens. If they aren't, then perhaps giving them the vote ought to be an important counterweight to what is being done to them.
Conservatives used to believe in giving folk personal responsibility. I can't fathom why that idea doesn't translate into given them votes.
If they wish to be given the right to vote they should take on the responsibility of British citizenship.
In the past 3 ing Scottish if that is the way the Indy referendum goes)
What are the additonal responsibilities of British citizenship compared to a British resident.
Voting Eligible for conscription in a war? Not going to happen with modern warfare. Anything else?
So they shouldnt be able to vote as they havent taken on the responsibility of the right to vote.....
Eligible to be selected for the England football team ?
Eligible for the protection of HMG in the event they get in trouble overseas - Don Pacifico etc
In what sense are those responsibilities?
Fair enough. How about you probably pick up an ongoing obligation to HMRC were you ever to leave the UK as you might be deemed UK domiciled.
I'm not convinced the Tories will win an easy majority at a GE. They could lose loads of seats in the home counties and SW London to the LDs like Guildford and Wimbledon. The polls may not be a good guide because the Conservatives could be piling up huge majorities in their safe seats in the SW, Midlands, Yorkshire, etc.
There will be a point where the middle class make a decision on their priorities.
No deal Brexit is no longer a threat so for many I would think Corbyn will be much the bigger fear.
Yes, the beauty of achieving a deal for Boris is that it keeps the Tories in play in southern constituencies scared of No Deal.
Quite amusing - Newnight 5-1 Remainer panel tearing their hair out that Boris isn't being punished by the electorate for us not leaving on 31st October!
It's almost like voters can see through the remainiacs tactics.
I think Letwin on Saturday sealed the deal with BJ being deliberately and vindictively cornered. May extending by choice is completely different to Johnson being compelled against his will. The more they push the more they get further away from their goal of neutralising him.
Does anyone with a head on their shoulders really think Boris Johnson isn't down on his knees every night thanking heaven for Benn, Letwin and Co. for giving him the time he needs to get his deal through - and simultaneously relieving him of reponsibility for the extension?
Except he seems to be giving up on getting in through.
Not sure he has the numbers - you really don't want to be relying on the likes of Lisa Nandy.
A majority of 30 for the deal seems immense to me.
Can't help wondering what would have happened if when he was elected nearly three months ago he had applied himself then and negotiated a similar deal. They would probably have been erecting the statues already. Why didn't he do that?
Looks like the public want to remain in the EU with a mahoosive Tory majority
Deltapoll must have surveyed @Richard_Nabavi a lot of times...
Yes, but they forget to mention the caveat that I wanted Cameron and Osborne back running things, or if they're not available David Gauke, Phil Hammond and Amber Rudd.
You really do want to make sure the Tories never win again don't you.
Quite amusing - Newnight 5-1 Remainer panel tearing their hair out that Boris isn't being punished by the electorate for us not leaving on 31st October!
It's almost like voters can see through the remainiacs tactics.
I think Letwin on Saturday sealed the deal with BJ being deliberately and vindictively cornered. May extending by choice is completely different to Johnson being compelled against his will. The more they push the more they get further away from their goal of neutralising him.
Does anyone with a head on their shoulders really think Boris Johnson isn't down on his knees every night thanking heaven for Benn, Letwin and Co. for giving him the time he needs to get his deal through - and simultaneously relieving him of reponsibility for the extension?
Except he seems to be giving up on getting in through.
Not sure he has the numbers - you really don't want to be relying on the likes of Lisa Nandy.
A majority of 30 for the deal seems immense to me.
Can't help wondering what would have happened if when he was elected nearly three months ago he had applied himself then and negotiated a similar deal. They would probably have been erecting the statues already. Why didn't he do that?
Maybe Ireland and the EU were not so amenable to reopening the Withdrawal Agreement three months ago? The time pressure doesn't just work one way.
What are the additonal responsibilities of British citizenship compared to a British resident.
Voting Eligible for conscription in a war? Not going to happen with modern warfare. Anything else?
So they shouldnt be able to vote as they havent taken on the responsibility of the right to vote.....
Jury service is the immediate one I can think of.
But the important point is that they are showing a commitment to remaining in Britain and making their lives here. The long term well being of our country now becomes part of their responsibility rather than just short term personal advantage.
Do you think UK nationals who live abroad for a lengthy period of time should have the right to vote here? I just find it hard to accept that someone who has lived in the country for 20 years plus and chosen to move here, has shown less of a commitment to the country than someone else, who has a UK passport from an accident of birth and chooses to live elsewhere!
No I don't think they should. They should take out citizenship of the country in which they are living and vote there.
Thanks, that is consistent. In the hierarchy of voting I would be UK resident nationals > UK nationals temporarily overseas > long term foreign residents here > UK nationals long term overseas.
Where we draw the line is arbitrary enough that I have no strong view, but think long term foreign residents should be treated at least as well as UK nationals long term overseas. I think we should phase out the differences between Commonwealth, EU and other foreign nationals voting rights too, possibly Irish too although that may be too controversial.
I would certainly agree with that. I would also massively reduce the costs of becoming a UK citizen. There is absolutely no reason it should cost so much.
Not just votes at 16, there's probably a majority in the Commons to give votes to EU citizens as well.
That would boost the Tories by another few percent when they promise to repeal votes at 16 and votes for EU citizens.
.
Why wouldn't they be? Do you think EU citizens living here are going to suffer from the UK leaving the EU?
You do like being utterly disingenuous, don't you?
It's a perfectly innocent question. If EU citizens already living here are going to be fine, then they should be as equally in favour of leaving the EU as UK citizens. If they aren't, then perhaps giving them the vote ought to be an important counterweight to what is being done to them.
Conservatives used to believe in giving folk personal responsibility. I can't fathom why that idea doesn't translate into given them votes.
If they wish to be given the right to vote they should take on the responsibility of British citizenship.
In the past 3 ing Scottish if that is the way the Indy referendum goes)
What are the additonal responsibilities of British citizenship compared to a British resident.
Voting Eligible for conscription in a war? Not going to happen with modern warfare. Anything else?
So they shouldnt be able to vote as they havent taken on the responsibility of the right to vote.....
Eligible to be selected for the England football team ?
Eligible for the protection of HMG in the event they get in trouble overseas - Don Pacifico etc
In what sense are those responsibilities?
Fair enough. How about you probably pick up an ongoing obligation to HMRC were you ever to leave the UK as you might be deemed UK domiciled.
Lived in the UK since a baby, cant afford the £1k cost of citizenship. Why on earth does the government want to make £587 profit from registering one eligible child as a citizen.
On your question I am far from a tax expert so will leave it at that for the evening, perhaps there is some tax responsibility.
Quite amusing - Newnight 5-1 Remainer panel tearing their hair out that Boris isn't being punished by the electorate for us not leaving on 31st October!
It's almost like voters can see through the remainiacs tactics.
I think Letwin on Saturday sealed the deal with BJ being deliberately and vindictively cornered. May extending by choice is completely different to Johnson being compelled against his will. The more they push the more they get further away from their goal of neutralising him.
Does anyone with a head on their shoulders really think Boris Johnson isn't down on his knees every night thanking heaven for Benn, Letwin and Co. for giving him the time he needs to get his deal through - and simultaneously relieving him of reponsibility for the extension?
Except he seems to be giving up on getting in through.
Not sure he has the numbers - you really don't want to be relying on the likes of Lisa Nandy.
As an aside, I thought it interesting (as someone who has family in Wigan) that of the three safe Labour MPs in the borough, two voted for Johnson's deal (Nandy and Jo Platt in Leigh) and the other abstained (Yvonne Fovargue in Makerfield). I still doubt Wigan Borough would deviate from its traditions going back to WWI of voting for Labour MPs in huge numbers, but presumably they are a bit concerned.
Anyway, from a betting point of view, if there's an election in early December and Johnson gets a working majority, do people think he'll still be mad keen to get Brexit done within a few days, or will he adopt a more leirsurely approach and leave next year?
I assume the current bill dies if there is an election as it's a new session ?
My guess is he'd allow scrutiny of the bill for the exit date of 31st January - there's probably legitimate things that need tidying up in there that don't alter the substance of the matter.
Yes. Once he's won an election I think the urgency will disappear. I think it will be a January Brexit.
Eggs eggscruciating analysis part two if no GE then confirmatory vote?
i am not going to ask you the question would you like one, do you think it a good idea, or do you think it might happen. I am going to ask you do you think Dominic Cummings would be tempted by one?
He won the last one against the odds. He knows he’s good at them. He now has the government machine at his disposal not against him, he’s clearly got much media too. He’s also got a weary electorate desperate to move on to domestic agenda on his side. Surely he would be thinking he Will add to 17.4M not lose much from that? We know vast amount of Labour support is remain, vast amount of Labour members remain, vast amount of its MPs remain, but, and this is how Cummings thinks, they are offered confirmatory ref tomorrow, it blows them up into a civil war; not only that, when they lose the confirmatory ref and the country brexits Labour ceases to exist and never comes back from it.
Where in Cummings war game, especially after trying and failing for GE, does he have confirmatory ref?
Eggs eggscruciating analysis part one the General Election
I don’t think Boris will get a GE under `fTPA anytime soon because
labour. I don’t feel they all want one. Even if some at top want one In short or medium term I think vociferous support against will stop them. Libdems and SNP. They could put on seats. But the flip side is massive win for Boris so he can ram through his Brexit and domestic policy. The GE and Boris majority wouldn’t help their brexit fight one bit. Remain Parliament. Surely remain now have Boris and his deal where they want it? Even if Boris is right and we do leave under his deal, it may say this is Boris brexit at top of paper, but it can dramatically change under that. So what really good reason would remain Parliament have for surrendering that influence.
Certainly it looks like Boris and Cummings and their friends throughout media will now try to exert as much pressure to get one, but I don’t see them getting anywhere near enough votes in parliament under current law.
A majority of 30 for the deal seems immense to me.
Can't help wondering what would have happened if when he was elected nearly three months ago he had applied himself then and negotiated a similar deal. They would probably have been erecting the statues already. Why didn't he do that?
The ERG would have voted against it. The way he got their support was by creating a huge tribal divide where the whole Leave side were cheering him on against a common enemy, so when he brought back a deal they put scoring a victory over the Remoners above their own policy preferences, like the UK having a single market.
Eggs eggscruciating analysis part one the General Election
I don’t think Boris will get a GE under `fTPA anytime soon because
labour. I don’t feel they all want one. Even if some at top want one In short or medium term I think vociferous support against will stop them. Libdems and SNP. They could put on seats. But the flip side is massive win for Boris so he can ram through his Brexit and domestic policy. The GE and Boris majority wouldn’t help their brexit fight one bit. Remain Parliament. Surely remain now have Boris and his deal where they want it? Even if Boris is right and we do leave under his deal, it may say this is Boris brexit at top of paper, but it can dramatically change under that. So what really good reason would remain Parliament have for surrendering that influence.
Certainly it looks like Boris and Cummings and their friends throughout media will now try to exert as much pressure to get one, but I don’t see them getting anywhere near enough votes in parliament under current law.
Boris can go on TV every single day - the news will have him on because he is, y'know, the Prime Minister - and say "Parliament is sabotaging my Deal. I need a majority to pass it, and therefore I need an election. Jeremy Corbyn is blocking one, because he is a ******* coward who knows he will lose".
Rinse and repeat, every single day until an election is called. The longer it continues, the more discredited Corbyn becomes, and the more disheartened his supporters feel. Win-win!
Anyway, from a betting point of view, if there's an election in early December and Johnson gets a working majority, do people think he'll still be mad keen to get Brexit done within a few days, or will he adopt a more leirsurely approach and leave next year?
Ironically, I think the Bill will then receive full scrutiny, since the Government can safely repel any wrecking amendments. All the poor governance of the last few years is a direct result of the muddled result of GE2017, and I hope to God the voters will take note this time and return a clear Conservative majority.
Eggs eggscruciating analysis part one the General Election
I don’t think Boris will get a GE under `fTPA anytime soon because
labour. I don’t feel they all want one. Even if some at top want one In short or medium term I think vociferous support against will stop them. Libdems and SNP. They could put on seats. But the flip side is massive win for Boris so he can ram through his Brexit and domestic policy. The GE and Boris majority wouldn’t help their brexit fight one bit. Remain Parliament. Surely remain now have Boris and his deal where they want it? Even if Boris is right and we do leave under his deal, it may say this is Boris brexit at top of paper, but it can dramatically change under that. So what really good reason would remain Parliament have for surrendering that influence.
Certainly it looks like Boris and Cummings and their friends throughout media will now try to exert as much pressure to get one, but I don’t see them getting anywhere near enough votes in parliament under current law.
Boris can go on TV every single day - the news will have him on because he is, y'know, the Prime Minister - and say "Parliament is sabotaging my Deal. I need a majority to pass it, and therefore I need an election. Jeremy Corbyn is blocking one, because he is a ******* coward who knows he will lose".
Rinse and repeat, every single day until an election is called. The longer it continues, the more discredited Corbyn becomes, and the more disheartened his supporters feel. Win-win!
Would you like to have a guess at the date of the general election?
A November election needs to be called by Thursday.
December is possible but even that requires a 2/3rd vote otherwise we are rapidly into late December and very quickly into early January.
I expect Boris to call it immediately he receives Tusk letter confirming a flexi extension to 31st January. As that is likely tomorrow Boris calls it on Thursday and GE on 28th November
And Boris campaign will be elect me and we leave the EU on the 31st December. Clear and no prevarication. Powerful message
One thing, they won't need an extended period for Parliamentary "wash up" as bugger all has been happening in Parliament for months.
I'm not convinced the Tories will win an easy majority at a GE. They could lose loads of seats in the home counties and SW London to the LDs like Guildford and Wimbledon. The polls may not be a good guide because the Conservatives could be piling up huge majorities in their safe seats in the SW, Midlands, Yorkshire, etc.
Hmmm: I suspect the opposite *could* be true. Take Wimbledon. I could easily see the Conservatives holding on with 35% of the vote, as the "pro EU" opposition splits between LD, Lab and Green.
A November election needs to be called by Thursday.
December is possible but even that requires a 2/3rd vote otherwise we are rapidly into late December and very quickly into early January.
I expect Boris to call it immediately he receives Tusk letter confirming a flexi extension to 31st January. As that is likely tomorrow Boris calls it on Thursday and GE on 28th November
And Boris campaign will be elect me and we leave the EU on the 31st December. Clear and no prevarication. Powerful message
Too late now I think. An election on 28th November requires Dissolution on 24th October - which in turn requires a 2/3 vote in Parliament on 23rd October . Such a vote would have to be tabled on 22nd October. No longer possible - so first Thursday is really 5th December now.
I know it's one poll, and it's YouGov (which tends to show the Tories with stronger leads than other pollsters) but some of the breakouts are striking:
Tory Lead: GB: +15 ABC1: +13 C2DE: +17
Among ABC1 LD ahead of Lab (24 vs 22) while among C2DE LD on 12, vs Lab on 22.
I see Tory Swinsons number one choice was congratulating Jester and saying if bill given 7 days rather than 3 he would vote for it.
Tory Swinson really doesn't have a clue
Tory Swinson is still better than Jeremy Corbyn.
But a vote for Tory Swinson leads to PM Jestet and hard BREXIT.
It's either PM Jester or Jezza and a 2nd Referendum
I’m voting for Tory Swinson regardless.
You aren't that bothered about stopping BREXIT or a 2nd Referendum then.
What's Tory Swinsons other policies BTW?
Oh BJO, I remember when we used to post daily YouGov polls with Red Ed winning and the words "tick tock".
I thought you learned the perils of being hyper partisan from the 2015 experience
Never used tick tock in any post ever.
EICIPM was me.
You have (see above).
??
EICIPM was so 2015
Tory Swinson is the new EICIPM
What doies the acronym mean, please?
Ed (Milliband) Is Crap Is Prime Minister.
Prior to 2015 many of the polls were showing Labour leads (ask your mother), and criticism of Ed Miliband (the then-Labour leader at a time where Jews weren't hounded from the party) was inevitably met with a retort of "EICIPM"
Thank you - I had retreated from PB at that time. You may be thinking of someone else, not that it matters at all - my late mother's ideas of Labour were founded on the likes of Harold Wilson and Wedgie Benn (with utter horror).
I was trying to be funny. The saying "oh, ask your mother" is a humorous way of saying that something happened a long time ago. My use of the phrase was meant to emphasise the fact that the time of Labour leads was many years ago.
FPT - thank you, I've learned two new things now, and no offence taken at all!
It is unlikely that there is a brexit deal that can command Government support and gain enough opposition support in a hung parliament. Therefore the only way a deal does get through is through an election.
Unless you want all this to come back at an EU summit every 3 months and prevent the EU from functioning properly
No just give us an extension to 2200 that will resolve everything, we can then go back to worry about important things rather than pathetic sovereignty arguments
As I understand it you don't even live in the UK so no surprise you don't care anout the place as long as it keeps sending you money.
I have every right to care about what happens in the UK because it will affect my and my children’s rights, the UK do not send me a penny that I haven’t earned or contributed to over the years. I think having paid x,xxx,xxx in tax in my working life I have a right to my £140/week pension as much as anyone. If We all had to come back to the UK I think we might bugger a few things up.
Exactly and a very poor return you et for the largesse you provided to these chisellers
And the Labour whips have reportedly advised Jeremy Corbyn that if he supports an early general election he will not have enough Labour MPs on his side. Around 140 Labour MPs have reportedly told whips they would vote no to early election
Any that vote no should not be eligible to stand as Lab Candidates
Comments
And amusingly Ollie realised it earlier today when he tweeted in panic before the votes.
Can't help wondering what would have happened if when he was elected nearly three months ago he had applied himself then and negotiated a similar deal. They would probably have been erecting the statues already. Why didn't he do that?
Lived in the UK since a baby, cant afford the £1k cost of citizenship. Why on earth does the government want to make £587 profit from registering one eligible child as a citizen.
On your question I am far from a tax expert so will leave it at that for the evening, perhaps there is some tax responsibility.
The simple truth is that the PB mood is always much more willing to pass Brexit than MPs are.
Presumably any forecasts of a 2019 GE should be seen through a similar prism?
Eggs eggscruciating analysis part two if no GE then confirmatory vote?
i am not going to ask you the question would you like one, do you think it a good idea, or do you think it might happen. I am going to ask you do you think Dominic Cummings would be tempted by one?
He won the last one against the odds. He knows he’s good at them.
He now has the government machine at his disposal not against him, he’s clearly got much media too.
He’s also got a weary electorate desperate to move on to domestic agenda on his side. Surely he would be thinking he Will add to 17.4M not lose much from that?
We know vast amount of Labour support is remain, vast amount of Labour members remain, vast amount of its MPs remain, but, and this is how Cummings thinks, they are offered confirmatory ref tomorrow, it blows them up into a civil war; not only that, when they lose the confirmatory ref and the country brexits Labour ceases to exist and never comes back from it.
Where in Cummings war game, especially after trying and failing for GE, does he have confirmatory ref?
I don’t think Boris will get a GE under `fTPA anytime soon because
labour. I don’t feel they all want one. Even if some at top want one In short or medium term I think vociferous support against will stop them.
Libdems and SNP. They could put on seats. But the flip side is massive win for Boris so he can ram through his Brexit and domestic policy. The GE and Boris majority wouldn’t help their brexit fight one bit.
Remain Parliament. Surely remain now have Boris and his deal where they want it? Even if Boris is right and we do leave under his deal, it may say this is Boris brexit at top of paper, but it can dramatically change under that. So what really good reason would remain Parliament have for surrendering that influence.
Certainly it looks like Boris and Cummings and their friends throughout media will now try to exert as much pressure to get one, but I don’t see them getting anywhere near enough votes in parliament under current law.
A confirmatory ref would let them off the hook.
Rinse and repeat, every single day until an election is called. The longer it continues, the more discredited Corbyn becomes, and the more disheartened his supporters feel. Win-win!
Milton
Sandbach
Stewart
Bebb
Clarke
Greening
Grieve
Hammond
Harrington
At least 3 of those who may have hoped for a reprieve have been stitched up by Letwin's folly.
Tory Lead:
GB: +15
ABC1: +13
C2DE: +17
Among ABC1 LD ahead of Lab (24 vs 22) while among C2DE LD on 12, vs Lab on 22.
There is a similar picture on 'Best PM':
Johnson lead:
GB: +23
ABC1: +18
C2DE: +30
Tory lead:
18-24: -10
25-49: -4
50-64: +22
65+: +44
The Con vote is now slightly 'stickier' than the LD vote:
% 2017 voters VI same now (ie 73% of those who voted Con in 17 have Con VI now):
Con: 73
Lab: 53
LD: 69
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/mh2qgto87a/TheTimes_191021_VI_Trackers_w.pdf
Any that vote no should not be eligible to stand as Lab Candidates