politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Maastricht Redux
Options
Comments
-
Tabman! Check LinkedIn, will you?0
-
> @Gallowgate said:
> Sunderland lose with the last kick of the game. Fantastic.
Can't argue with that!0 -
> @rottenborough said:
> https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1132666613138972678
We're all Lib-Dems now!
0 -
> @brendan16 said:
> > @dixiedean said:
> > > @augustus_carp said:
> > > A quick anecdote from the Emerald Isle - according to RTE, Mr Patrick Sweeney received a total of one vote (that's 1 vote) in the Galway City Central ward.
> >
> > Well at least he remembered to vote. I assume.
>
> His vote will count though as it will be transferred to his second (or lower) choice - unlike here under FPTP where it would be totally wasted! His transfer may even decide it all!
Why is someone with a demonstrably terrible judgement (being the only voter for a candidate) allowed to have a second chance at voting?0 -
> @RobD said:
> > @Tabman said:
> > > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > > > @RobD said:
> > > > > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > > > > So have they started counting the euros?
> > > >
> > > > We have finally been granted permission from our EU overlords to count, yes.
> > >
> > > When do they grant permission for the release of the results?
> >
> > it's UK electoral law that dictates we can't release until 10pm. Nothing to do with the EU.
>
> It's part of the EU law that no state can release results before any other.
>
> <i>2. Member States may not officially make public the results of their count until after the close of polling in the Member State whose electors are the last to vote within the period referred to in paragraph 1.</i>
"Most European Union nations are today casting their ballots in the European elections to decide who will be the next sitting Members of the European Parliament (MEPs). The UK went to the polls on Thursday but its results are not allowed to be published until the rest of Europe has had its say. To do so would result in a criminal offence under UK law. "
(From that well known Remainiac paper, the Daily Express)0 -
> @rottenborough said:
> https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1132678736636252160
Fantastic for the SNP and Plaid Cymru if true. It’s good to have lots of friends.0 -
I think the word “official” gives plenty of room for informed speculation.Richard_Tyndall said:> @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > @RobD said:
> > > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > > So have they started counting the euros?
> >
> > We have finally been granted permission from our EU overlords to count, yes.
>
> When do they grant permission for the release of the results?
Not sure why people are up tight about this. It is election to the EU Parliament. As such it seems reasonable to ensure no results are released until the last seats for the Parliament have been voted on.0 -
How would a "structured exit" look any different to what has been negotiated? That's exactly what May's deal does.BillyBlake said:It is not Eurosceptics fault that in their hurry to sell the UK out that Blair, Brown and their Libdem pets failed to put in place the safeguards that might have ensured a structured exit. More likely in an insidious attempt to deter nations the EU left it open so that they could sabotage any exit in a manner similar to the bad faith activities they are currently taking place in.
0 -
@RochdalePioneers said:
"In an interesting turn of events, I am at the Stockon-on-Tees count!"
.......................................................................................................
Have you done a "JohnO" ? ....
Should you have been at Stockton in Warwickshire ?0 -
> @Black_Rook said:
> > @AndreaParma_82 said:
> > https://twitter.com/RichardOsley/status/1132667250698326017
>
> If this is anywhere close to being representative of broader results from London - and if we then assume that the Brexit Party won't do any worse than about 20%, either (given that there are still plenty of Leavers in London, and about half-a-dozen of the outer boroughs actually voted to go) then Labour could be heading for a real shellacking.
Bar Cheshire east - where that Labour cllr implied the Brexit party were ‘cleaning up’ - a very wealthy on the whole area which includes Alderley Edge etc - we still have few signs of results outside inner London.
Brent was highlighted earlier - it wasn’t long ago the LDs held the council and had an LD MP. It really isn’t that shocking to see them win in another highly remain borough they used to run when Labour are out of sorts in a lower turnout vote than a GE.
But we really need to see more figures from beyond the north and south circular - as it is a UK election!0 -
> @Tabman said:
> > @RobD said:
> > > @Tabman said:
> > > > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > > > > @RobD said:
> > > > > > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > > > > > So have they started counting the euros?
> > > > >
> > > > > We have finally been granted permission from our EU overlords to count, yes.
> > > >
> > > > When do they grant permission for the release of the results?
> > >
> > > it's UK electoral law that dictates we can't release until 10pm. Nothing to do with the EU.
> >
> > It's part of the EU law that no state can release results before any other.
> >
> > <i>2. Member States may not officially make public the results of their count until after the close of polling in the Member State whose electors are the last to vote within the period referred to in paragraph 1.</i>
>
> "Most European Union nations are today casting their ballots in the European elections to decide who will be the next sitting Members of the European Parliament (MEPs). The UK went to the polls on Thursday but its results are not allowed to be published until the rest of Europe has had its say. To do so would result in a criminal offence under UK law. "
>
> (From that well known Remainiac paper, the Daily Express)
That law being enacted because it is an EU law. I don't think there are any EU-specific criminal offences yet, thankfully.0 -
0
-
> @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > > @RobD said:
> > > > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > > > So have they started counting the euros?
> > >
> > > We have finally been granted permission from our EU overlords to count, yes.
> >
> > When do they grant permission for the release of the results?
>
> Not sure why people are up tight about this. It is election to the EU Parliament. As such it seems reasonable to ensure no results are released until the last seats for the Parliament have been voted on.
Does the vote in one country have any influence whatsoever on that in another?0 -
They could win vote share...reckon about 24%rottenborough said:0 -
> @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > @MikeL said:
> > Boris gone above 3 on Betfair - now 3.05. Was Evens / slightly odds on a couple of days ago.
> >
> > Looks like he's going in wrong direction pretty rapidly.
>
> Good
The Union might be saved yet. Ruthie’s been busy.0 -
> @rottenborough said:
> https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1132666613138972678
Jo Swinson growing a beard ?!? ..
0 -
> @timmo said:
> https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1132666613138972678
>
>
>
> They could win vote share...reckon about 24%
So what does that mean for TBP?0 -
Given that those who've remained loyal to Con are more likely to be remain/indifferent and those loyal to Lab leave/ indifferent, I think % BP +UKIP v Lib Dem + Green + CUK should give us a reasonable proxy for the state of leave vs remain sentiment in England i.e. Lab and Con discounted. Would be too complicated/ require too many caveats to work out what the Scot, Wales & NI votes indicate.0
-
> @RobD said:
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > > > @RobD said:
> > > > > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > > > > So have they started counting the euros?
> > > >
> > > > We have finally been granted permission from our EU overlords to count, yes.
> > >
> > > When do they grant permission for the release of the results?
> >
> > Not sure why people are up tight about this. It is election to the EU Parliament. As such it seems reasonable to ensure no results are released until the last seats for the Parliament have been voted on.
>
> Does the vote in one country have any influence whatsoever on that in another?
Yes, possibly.
Or at least, political parties seem to thing so. The Swedish Social Democrats were cock-a-hoop when that Dutch exit poll was published. Sharing like mad.0 -
Jesus...0
-
> @MikeL said:
> Boris gone above 3 on Betfair - now 3.05. Was Evens / slightly odds on a couple of days ago.
>
> Looks like he's going in wrong direction pretty rapidly.
Is that in favour of someone more Leavey - such as Raab - or someone less no-dealy - such as Gove/Hancock/whoever?0 -
0
-
> @williamglenn said:
> > @RochdalePioneers said:
> > Jesus...
>
> Give us a clue!
We don't want him sent to the gulags now, do we? 0 -
> @timmo said:
> > @timmo said:
>
> > https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1132666613138972678
>
>
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > They could win vote share...reckon about 24%
>
>
>
> So what does that mean for TBP?
>
> Think vote share will be close between LD and TBP but TBP will win most seats
TBP most seats seems fairly nailed on, but if they are not first in vote share it will be a disaster for Farage0 -
> @ThomasNashe said:
> Given that those who've remained loyal to Con are more likely to be remain/indifferent and those loyal to Lab leave/ indifferent, I think % BP +UKIP v Lib Dem + Green + CUK should give us a reasonable proxy for the state of leave vs remain sentiment in England i.e. Lab and Con discounted. Would be too complicated/ require too many caveats to work out what the Scot, Wales & NI votes indicate.
Brexit is not the main issue in either Scotland (independence) nor NI (reunion). But might be in Wales?0 -
> @OblitusSumMe said:
> > @MikeL said:
> > Boris gone above 3 on Betfair - now 3.05. Was Evens / slightly odds on a couple of days ago.
> >
> > Looks like he's going in wrong direction pretty rapidly.
>
> Is that in favour of someone more Leavey - such as Raab - or someone less no-dealy - such as Gove/Hancock/whoever?
Perhaps in favour of somebody more sensible?0 -
> @williamglenn said:
> > @RochdalePioneers said:
> > Jesus...
>
> Give us a clue!
I would be surprised if it was good news for labour0 -
> @StuartDickson said:
> > @RobD said:
> > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > > > > @RobD said:
> > > > > > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > > > > > So have they started counting the euros?
> > > > >
> > > > > We have finally been granted permission from our EU overlords to count, yes.
> > > >
> > > > When do they grant permission for the release of the results?
> > >
> > > Not sure why people are up tight about this. It is election to the EU Parliament. As such it seems reasonable to ensure no results are released until the last seats for the Parliament have been voted on.
> >
> > Does the vote in one country have any influence whatsoever on that in another?
>
> Yes, possibly.
> Or at least, political parties seem to thing so. The Swedish Social Democrats were cock-a-hoop when that Dutch exit poll was published. Sharing like mad.
Predictive power =/= influence (except possibly at quantum scales).0 -
0
-
> @JackW said:
> > @rottenborough said:
> > https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1132666613138972678
>
> Jo Swinson growing a beard ?!? ..
Wouldn't be the the first time a Lib has made use of a beard.0 -
0
-
> @Cicero said:
> > @timmo said:
> > > @timmo said:
> >
> > > https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1132666613138972678
> >
> >
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > They could win vote share...reckon about 24%
> >
> >
> >
> > So what does that mean for TBP?
> >
> > Think vote share will be close between LD and TBP but TBP will win most seats
>
> TBP most seats seems fairly nailed on, but if they are not first in vote share it will be a disaster for Farage
Fingers crossed0 -
> @RobD said:
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > > > @RobD said:
> > > > > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > > > > So have they started counting the euros?
> > > >
> > > > We have finally been granted permission from our EU overlords to count, yes.
> > >
> > > When do they grant permission for the release of the results?
> >
> > Not sure why people are up tight about this. It is election to the EU Parliament. As such it seems reasonable to ensure no results are released until the last seats for the Parliament have been voted on.
>
> Does the vote in one country have any influence whatsoever on that in another?
I think we can all imagine circumstances where it could even if they don't exist at this very moment. Moreover there is now the first pan-European party - Volt Europa - standing in 7 countries across Europe.
It seems eminently sensible to me for all voting to be done for a given institution before the results start being announced1 -
@RochdalePioneers said:
"Jesus..."
..........................................
Yes you've guessed it at last .... man with a beard and sandals - Bloody Liberal Democrat !!4 -
0
-
> @JackW said:
> @RochdalePioneers said:
>
> "Jesus..."
>
> ..........................................
>
> Yes you've guessed it at last .... man with a beard and sandals - Bloody Liberal Democrat !!
Yeah, what a virtue signaller!1 -
> @ThomasNashe said:
> Given that those who've remained loyal to Con are more likely to be remain/indifferent and those loyal to Lab leave/ indifferent, I think % BP +UKIP v Lib Dem + Green + CUK should give us a reasonable proxy for the state of leave vs remain sentiment in England i.e. Lab and Con discounted. Would be too complicated/ require too many caveats to work out what the Scot, Wales & NI votes indicate.
-------------------
Not on a 40% turnout. The turnout in 2016 was nearly double that; the 'indifferents' will still have a vote in any second referendum.0 -
> @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > @williamglenn said:
> > > @RochdalePioneers said:
> > > Jesus...
> >
> > Give us a clue!
>
> I would be surprised if it was good news for labour
I'm not going to break the legal embargo. But holy hell...0 -
> @timmo said:
> https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1132666613138972678
>
>
>
> They could win vote share...reckon about 24%
That would mean Brexit Party getting considerably less votes than UKIP 2014 even taking into account the slightly increased turnout. Seems pretty unlikely.0 -
> @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > TBP most seats seems fairly nailed on, but if they are not first in vote share it will be a disaster for Farage
>
> Fingers crossed
To take a brand new party with no real infrastructure to gaining most seats in a Euro Election in a matter of weeks will still be a massive achievement - whatever you think of TBP or Farage or what they stand for.
It makes the future look even more unpredictable.0 -
It confirms what i KNOWGallowgate said:https://twitter.com/JamesDAustin/status/1132639088287391744
This been posted yet?0 -
> @dixiedean said:
> > @nico67 said:
> > > @AndreaParma_82 said:
> > > https://twitter.com/RichardOsley/status/1132667250698326017
> >
> > There are 18 wards in Camden so Lib Dems have won 15 of them !
> >
> > That must be a definite win for them there .
>
> Now that does seem to breach the definition of releasing results. And from a newspaper editor too!
But there are no detailed figures for a specific constituency.0 -
> @Gallowgate said:
> https://twitter.com/JamesDAustin/status/1132639088287391744
>
>
>
> This been posted yet?
---------------
This must be very close to breaching the regulations; assuming anyone cares.....0 -
LDs topping the % vote means the end of Change UK surely?
One of their central arguments is that LDs are busted flush whose brand is ruined.0 -
> @RochdalePioneers said:
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > @RochdalePioneers said:
> > > > Jesus...
> > >
> > > Give us a clue!
> >
> > I would be surprised if it was good news for labour
>
> I'm not going to break the legal embargo. But holy hell...
Let us hope this sees the end of Corbyn and McDonnell and their cabal.
Time to lead the labour mps out Tom and declare the referendum you want0 -
LDUK... yellow bird... lame duck... nahIanB2 said:> @nico67 said:
> The Lib Dems should not change their name , if Change MPs want to join then fine.
>
> Their brand is recovering so Change UK need to just accept they messed up and show some humility .
Or they could become Liberal Democrats UK? Seems fair0 -
0
-
> @TudorRose said:
> > @ThomasNashe said:
> > Given that those who've remained loyal to Con are more likely to be remain/indifferent and those loyal to Lab leave/ indifferent, I think % BP +UKIP v Lib Dem + Green + CUK should give us a reasonable proxy for the state of leave vs remain sentiment in England i.e. Lab and Con discounted. Would be too complicated/ require too many caveats to work out what the Scot, Wales & NI votes indicate.
>
> -------------------
>
> Not on a 40% turnout. The turnout in 2016 was nearly double that; the 'indifferents' will still have a vote in any second referendum.
Yes, I think so too.
It may frighten a few of our MPs though, the question is perhaps who frightens the Tories most, and who frightens the Labour. Both of those may vary by constituency.0 -
Afternoon all
Years of bitter experience tell me not to over-hype the LD performance. Winning places like Camden is all well and good - I'd be more excited if the LDs won Newham or Barking & Dagenham but I suspect they won't.
Likewise, a strong performance in London is a long way from a strong performance everywhere - yes, the South West may be good but what about NE England as an example? Obviously, winning more than 1 MEP will be an improvement, I'd be looking to get back to 10-15 before I start getting too excited.
A lot happening elsewhere in Europe - I'll be looking at the Danish results to offer clues to the Folketing vote on June 5th.0 -
The funny thing is even if Labour lose four times as many Remainers to Leavers I expect Milne and the rest to say we need to get on and deliver Brexit!1
-
> @Cyclefree said:
> I suspect that the most important thought encapsulated in Ms Cyclefree excellent thread is in the penultimate thread,
>
>
>
> 'The most important lesson is perhaps this: any significant change in the country’s course needs more than Parliamentary approval or passage as the legal default to gain support. It needs it from as many of those who are initially opposed or indifferent or sceptical as possible. Without it, any change will be vulnerable to its first difficulties. Without it, it will not last.'
>
>
>
> At the moment it seems that the most comment directed at Remainers is 'You lost; suck it up!".
>
> Which, bearing in mind that the margin was small, doesn't go a long way to unite the country. Unpopular in some quarters that a Customs Union, or May's Deal may be/have been, the fact 'remains' that a significant proportion of the public think the EU membership is, at least, quite a good idea and any government which rides roughshod over those beliefs is not going to last long.
>
> Either that or it is going to have to find such a helping of bread and circuses to bribe enough of the electorate that it will very soon run out of money.
>
> Thank you. I’m glad someone’s read it!
*******************************************************************************************
I've read it too. It's particularly good. Hard to comment on it really. Says it all.0 -
> @timmo said:
> https://twitter.com/JamesDAustin/status/1132639088287391744
>
>
>
> This been posted yet?
>
> It confirms what i KNOW
What about the rest of the country? Sounds like Labour are getting a twatting, but the critical thing is if TBP are lower than 27%...0 -
> @RochdalePioneers said:
> In an interesting turn of events, I am at the Stockon-on-Tees count!
Any news you can report - staying within electoral law of course! You would assume a close battle there between Labour and the Brexit party?0 -
> @Charles said:
>
> Not necessarily. May encourage Leo to think his intransigence works
He already knows that it works.0 -
Are any markets up on total seats? Just wondering if BP are lengthening to backable odds.0
-
The pollsters at Survation are going to need a stiff drink if these rumours are correct .
They had Labour at 23% and the Lib Dems at 12% for the EU elections in their final poll!0 -
Don’t tell me you’ve caught sight of TSE’s next AV thread?RochdalePioneers said:> @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > @williamglenn said:
> > > @RochdalePioneers said:
> > > Jesus...
> >
> > Give us a clue!
>
> I would be surprised if it was good news for labour
I'm not going to break the legal embargo. But holy hell...
0 -
> @Brom said:
> > @timmo said:
> > https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1132666613138972678
> >
> >
> >
> > They could win vote share...reckon about 24%
>
> That would mean Brexit Party getting considerably less votes than UKIP 2014 even taking into account the slightly increased turnout. Seems pretty unlikely.
Yes. I suspect some people are excitedly over-extrapolating from very good results in strong Remain areas. The Lib Dems have form for being too confident of their results.0 -
> @justin124 said:
> > @dixiedean said:
> > > @nico67 said:
> > > > @AndreaParma_82 said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/RichardOsley/status/1132667250698326017
> > >
> > > There are 18 wards in Camden so Lib Dems have won 15 of them !
> > >
> > > That must be a definite win for them there .
> >
> > Now that does seem to breach the definition of releasing results. And from a newspaper editor too!
>
> But there are no detailed figures for a specific constituency.
That is a very narrow definition. No one is in a position to know full constituency figures.
Why should leaked results from London shape the narrative?0 -
> @brendan16 said:
> > @RochdalePioneers said:
> > In an interesting turn of events, I am at the Stockon-on-Tees count!
>
> Any news you can report - staying within electoral law of course! You would assume a close battle there between Labour and the Brexit party?
His posts earlier are very entertaining and looks as if labour have been obliterated0 -
Because they are totally anti-eu. They believe it is a capitalist plot, which shows the depths of their imaginary world.nico67 said:The funny thing is even if Labour lose four times as many Remainers to Leavers I expect Milne and the rest to say we need to get on and deliver Brexit!
What I can't understand is why young people have fallen for this crap.0 -
What always seems odd is that the US releases east coast results before the west coast polls close.RobD said:> @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > > @RobD said:
> > > > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > > > So have they started counting the euros?
> > >
> > > We have finally been granted permission from our EU overlords to count, yes.
> >
> > When do they grant permission for the release of the results?
>
> Not sure why people are up tight about this. It is election to the EU Parliament. As such it seems reasonable to ensure no results are released until the last seats for the Parliament have been voted on.
Does the vote in one country have any influence whatsoever on that in another?0 -
The London County council area is the only place that matters.dixiedean said:> @justin124 said:
> > @dixiedean said:
> > > @nico67 said:
> > > > @AndreaParma_82 said:
> > > >
> > >
> > > There are 18 wards in Camden so Lib Dems have won 15 of them !
> > >
> > > That must be a definite win for them there .
> >
> > Now that does seem to breach the definition of releasing results. And from a newspaper editor too!
>
> But there are no detailed figures for a specific constituency.
That is a very narrow definition. No one is in a position to know full constituency figures.
Why should leaked results from London shape the narrative.0 -
Thank you to you too.Barnesian said:> @Cyclefree said:
> I suspect that the most important thought encapsulated in Ms Cyclefree excellent thread is in the penultimate thread,
>
>
>
> 'The most important lesson is perhaps this: any significant change in the country’s course needs more than Parliamentary approval or passage as the legal default to gain support. It needs it from as many of those who are initially opposed or indifferent or sceptical as possible. Without it, any change will be vulnerable to its first difficulties. Without it, it will not last.'
>
>
>
> At the moment it seems that the most comment directed at Remainers is 'You lost; suck it up!".
>
> Which, bearing in mind that the margin was small, doesn't go a long way to unite the country. Unpopular in some quarters that a Customs Union, or May's Deal may be/have been, the fact 'remains' that a significant proportion of the public think the EU membership is, at least, quite a good idea and any government which rides roughshod over those beliefs is not going to last long.
>
> Either that or it is going to have to find such a helping of bread and circuses to bribe enough of the electorate that it will very soon run out of money.
>
> Thank you. I’m glad someone’s read it!
*******************************************************************************************
I've read it too. It's particularly good. Hard to comment on it really. Says it all.
0 -
Punters obviously don't believe the LD surge in London will be reflected elsewhere because they're still 60/1 to win most seats overall with Betfair.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.1576400260 -
> @Barnesian said:
> > @Cyclefree said:
> > I suspect that the most important thought encapsulated in Ms Cyclefree excellent thread is in the penultimate thread,
> >
> >
> >
> > 'The most important lesson is perhaps this: any significant change in the country’s course needs more than Parliamentary approval or passage as the legal default to gain support. It needs it from as many of those who are initially opposed or indifferent or sceptical as possible. Without it, any change will be vulnerable to its first difficulties. Without it, it will not last.'
> >
> >
> >
> > At the moment it seems that the most comment directed at Remainers is 'You lost; suck it up!".
> >
> > Which, bearing in mind that the margin was small, doesn't go a long way to unite the country. Unpopular in some quarters that a Customs Union, or May's Deal may be/have been, the fact 'remains' that a significant proportion of the public think the EU membership is, at least, quite a good idea and any government which rides roughshod over those beliefs is not going to last long.
> >
> > Either that or it is going to have to find such a helping of bread and circuses to bribe enough of the electorate that it will very soon run out of money.
> >
> > Thank you. I’m glad someone’s read it!
>
> *******************************************************************************************
> I've read it too. It's particularly good. Hard to comment on it really. Says it all.
I am sorry to keep banging on about this but some of us have been saying this since the bloody referendum. And the response from far too many Remainers on here has been; 'its your problem, you are racists and xenophobes and don't ask us for either help or support'.
The intransigence and bloody mindedness has been far too prevelant on both sides of the argument.0 -
OblitusSumMe said:
> @Brom said:
> > @timmo said:
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > They could win vote share...reckon about 24%
>
> That would mean Brexit Party getting considerably less votes than UKIP 2014 even taking into account the slightly increased turnout. Seems pretty unlikely.
Yes. I suspect some people are excitedly over-extrapolating from very good results in strong Remain areas. The Lib Dems have form for being too confident of their results.
It's entirely possible that the Lib Dems could win 24% and the Brexit Party over 30%. Both parties would be cannibalising the other parties on their own side.0 -
0
-
Is it only the UK that plays by the rules in the EU?rottenborough said:0 -
> @nico67 said:
> > @AndreaParma_82 said:
> > https://twitter.com/RichardOsley/status/1132667250698326017
>
> There are 18 wards in Camden so Lib Dems have won 15 of them !
>
> That must be a definite win for them there .
Camden was 75% Remain, no surprise the LDs are trouncing Labour there0 -
> @nico67 said:
> The pollsters at Survation are going to need a stiff drink if these rumours are correct .
>
> They had Labour at 23% and the Lib Dems at 12% for the EU elections in their final poll!
Pity the poor lambs.0 -
Seems there is a good chance that Seamus and Jeremy have come up with the ultimate antithesis of Blair's hated triangulations.
The anti-triangulation concept involves pissing off everyone on all sides of a policy choice, so that you lose all your voters!
Genius.
0 -
How come they can but we cant mention it..complete crap when a lot of us already know a lot of the resultsrottenborough said:0 -
> @rottenborough said:
> The funny thing is even if Labour lose four times as many Remainers to Leavers I expect Milne and the rest to say we need to get on and deliver Brexit!
>
> Because they are totally anti-eu. They believe it is a capitalist plot, which shows the depths of their imaginary world.
>
> What I can't understand is why young people have fallen for this crap.
I won’t be voting Labour again unless they move 100% to another EU vote . And that goes for many of my Labour friends who voted Lib Dem this time .0 -
> @nico67 said:
> The pollsters at Survation are going to need a stiff drink if these rumours are correct .
>
> They had Labour at 23% and the Lib Dems at 12% for the EU elections in their final poll!
Yougov is the Gold standard for Euros, they had the LDs ahead of Labour and were spot on in 2014.
Survation only the Gold standard for general elections it seems0 -
Looks like the LDs are on for a big night. We therefore have to ask the question, if the chance arises would the LDs go into coalition with the Brexit party and implement hard Brexit?2
-
If as it appears that the yellow peril are to have a decent showing then I'm minded to remember that old LibDem war horse, late of this parish - @MarkSenior
He will undoubtedly be readjusting his celestial bar charts and with a resounding holy chorus encouraging the heavenly company to "return to your harps and prepare for government."8 -
Will no one think of the pollsters!StuartDickson said:> @nico67 said:
> The pollsters at Survation are going to need a stiff drink if these rumours are correct .
>
> They had Labour at 23% and the Lib Dems at 12% for the EU elections in their final poll!
Pity the poor lambs.0 -
> @rottenborough said:
> Because they are totally anti-eu. They believe it is a capitalist plot, which shows the depths of their imaginary world.
>
> What I can't understand is why young people have fallen for this crap.
Blairites have taught them that sometimes they have to compromise on their principles in order to win power and now people are complaining that young Corbynites have learnt to compromise on their principles to stay united (in the hopes of winning power) because the principles they've chosen to compromise on (being pro-EU and anti-anti-semitism) are not the principles they are supposed to compromise on (fighting capitalism).
Would be funny if it were a story.0 -
> @StuartDickson said:
> > @nico67 said:
> > The pollsters at Survation are going to need a stiff drink if these rumours are correct .
> >
> > They had Labour at 23% and the Lib Dems at 12% for the EU elections in their final poll!
>
> Pity the poor lambs.
By the way Stuart, not thought to say it yet but absolutely delighted to see you back posting on here. Perspectives from outside the UK are always extremely welcome.0 -
> @Brom said:
> > @timmo said:
> > https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1132666613138972678
> >
> >
> >
> > They could win vote share...reckon about 24%
>
> That would mean Brexit Party getting considerably less votes than UKIP 2014 even taking into account the slightly increased turnout. Seems pretty unlikely.
Indeed, reports earlier suggested the Brexit Party have easily won Cheshire East and that was 51% Leave in 2016 ie almost exactly the UK average.
So seems the Brexit Party still a clear first nationwide but the LDs winning big in London and Remain areas0 -
How is that possible?timmo said:
They could win vote share...reckon about 24%rottenborough said:
IF LD win it on 24%, then the most BXP could get is 23%... where do the other 53% go?0 -
Mr. Borough, perhaps the opposite of a triangle is a caltrop. Such a thing would indeed annoy people.0
-
OK. Question for those who know more about Labour than me:
What level of performance by Labour would be terminal for Corbyn?
Behind the Tories? Seems unlikely.
Under 20% of the vote? Seems possible.
Or will nothing from these elections get rid of the man who makes Theresa May look like a snake instead of a limpet?1 -
oxfordsimon said:
> @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > TBP most seats seems fairly nailed on, but if they are not first in vote share it will be a disaster for Farage
>
> Fingers crossed
To take a brand new party with no real infrastructure to gaining most seats in a Euro Election in a matter of weeks will still be a massive achievement - whatever you think of TBP or Farage or what they stand for.
It makes the future look even more unpredictable.
Peterborough becomes critical. If BXP follow through with a win or at least a very strong showing, Farage’s strategy remains in play. If BXP don’t run close then the EU result can be dismissed as a short term protest vote.0 -
If the London result is as suggested then time for UDI. London Northern Ireland and Scotland Remain. Hartlepool Grimsby Stoke and the East Coast Leave.
Then we'll all be happy0 -
https://twitter.com/michael_chessum/status/1132660690068676608
Momentum member I believe. Saying there might be a challenge - as I predicted earlier.0 -
The denizens of Camden and Islington were sadly outvoted once before, in the AV referendum.AndyJS said:Punters obviously don't believe the LD surge in London will be reflected elsewhere because they're still 60/1 to win most seats overall with Betfair.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.1576400260 -
> @ydoethur said:
> OK. Question for those who know more about Labour than me:
>
> What level of performance by Labour would be terminal for Corbyn?
>
> Behind the Tories? Seems unlikely.
>
> Under 20% of the vote? Seems possible.
>
> Or will nothing from these elections get rid of the man who makes Theresa May look like a snake instead of a limpet?
It is funny. We are talking about what it means if TBP fall short of their projected vote share but probably the greatest threat to Brexit from these elections is a total collapse of Labour. If Corbyn goes and we end up with a Revote/Revoke Labour leader that changes things dramatically straight away.0 -
My prediction of a million votes for the Lib Dems in London could come true if the leaks are accurate.0
-
> @Cyclefree said:
> > @Cyclefree said:
>
> > I suspect that the most important thought encapsulated in Ms Cyclefree excellent thread is in the penultimate thread,
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > 'The most important lesson is perhaps this: any significant change in the country’s course needs more than Parliamentary approval or passage as the legal default to gain support. It needs it from as many of those who are initially opposed or indifferent or sceptical as possible. Without it, any change will be vulnerable to its first difficulties. Without it, it will not last.'
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > At the moment it seems that the most comment directed at Remainers is 'You lost; suck it up!".
>
> >
>
> > Which, bearing in mind that the margin was small, doesn't go a long way to unite the country. Unpopular in some quarters that a Customs Union, or May's Deal may be/have been, the fact 'remains' that a significant proportion of the public think the EU membership is, at least, quite a good idea and any government which rides roughshod over those beliefs is not going to last long.
>
> >
>
> > Either that or it is going to have to find such a helping of bread and circuses to bribe enough of the electorate that it will very soon run out of money.
>
> >
>
> > Thank you. I’m glad someone’s read it!
>
>
>
> *******************************************************************************************
>
> I've read it too. It's particularly good. Hard to comment on it really. Says it all.
>
> Thank you to you too.
>
>
Yes, a good header, but perhaps too complete for argument.0 -
Mr. W, indeed, and Mr. SBS, who was also a Lib Dem (and a sound fellow).2
-
Very nice thread header, Cyclefree. Eloquent and persuasive.
My new prediction, based on nothing but the movement of clouds and the colour of my coffee grounds - and some of the rumours on this 'ere site - is this:
BXP: 29
LD: 24
Lab:14
Con: 13
SNP+PC: 6
Green: 6
UKIP: 3
CUK: 2
No idea if this adds up to 100. Could add up to 294.0 -
> @timmo said:
> > @AndreaParma_82 said:
>
> > https://twitter.com/RichardOsley/status/1132667250698326017
>
>
>
>
>
> If this is anywhere close to being representative of broader results from London - and if we then assume that the Brexit Party won't do any worse than about 20%, either (given that there are still plenty of Leavers in London, and about half-a-dozen of the outer boroughs actually voted to go) then Labour could be heading for a real shellacking.
>
> Mike's 7/2 bet that LD win London looking purty darn good
>
> its nailed on...something weird happening in Enfield..
> Also i would not put a penny on the Tories winning ANY london boroughs inc Bexley and Bromley
I suspect the Brexit Party will win Bexley and the LDs will win Bromley0 -
> @ydoethur said:
> OK. Question for those who know more about Labour than me:
>
> What level of performance by Labour would be terminal for Corbyn?
>
> Behind the Tories? Seems unlikely.
>
> Under 20% of the vote? Seems possible.
>
> Or will nothing from these elections get rid of the man who makes Theresa May look like a snake instead of a limpet?
Nothing will be terminal for him. He has the support of a cult who hold the levers of power and they like him. Len McClusk loves him.0 -
> @ydoethur said:
> OK. Question for those who know more about Labour than me:
>
> What level of performance by Labour would be terminal for Corbyn?
>
> Behind the Tories? Seems unlikely.
>
> Under 20% of the vote? Seems possible.
>
> Or will nothing from these elections get rid of the man who makes Theresa May look like a snake instead of a limpet?
I think excuses/deflections are already being got ready.
https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/11326874398463467570
This discussion has been closed.