> @isam said: > I'm surprised the LDs are still 50/1 to get most seats overall on Betfair Exchange, I'd have put it at more like 20/1 or 25/1. > > BXP 1.01-1.02 now. If they don't win this will be the shortest fav turned over in political betting history wont it?
The timing of the cut to 1.01 suggests a punter coming back after watching that 2-hour documentary about tyre choice in tax havens.
The Tories effectively abstained from the EU elections - and to only a slightly lesser extent that was also true of Labour. Not quite sure why either party bothered to contest at all.
Because letting voters get into the habit of voting for someone else is a bad idea . Also to assess how bad a situation each is in. Tories will be ecstatic if they can get third, labour contend if they get second.
The early indications of a success for the Lib Dems and the disaster for labour and the conservatives will play out over the next few days and change the political landscape. Those leadership candidates on the media this weekend making their willingnes to no deal may have committed themselves too soon, when the likes of Gove and Hunt have not committed to anything relevant yet and will be able to craft their bids with the hindsight and aftermath of the EU elections very much in their minds
> @DecrepitJohnL said: > > @isam said: > > I'm surprised the LDs are still 50/1 to get most seats overall on Betfair Exchange, I'd have put it at more like 20/1 or 25/1. > > > > BXP 1.01-1.02 now. If they don't win this will be the shortest fav turned over in political betting history wont it? > > The timing of the cut to 1.01 suggests a punter coming back after watching that <b>2-hour documentary about tyre choice in tax havens</b> .
> @augustus_carp said: > Hag on, wait a minute.... if Labour are fourth in Cheshire and/or the North West, and BXP are top, who is in 2nd and 3rd place? Suppose Lib Dems for one of them, but who else? The Changelings? Or the Greens? Or the Tories?
The Tories I suspect, if not only the Brexit Party and LDs beat Labour but the Tories too that would be an absolutely abysmal result for Corbyn. Hard then to see Starmer not launching a leadership challenge within weeks
> Hag on, wait a minute.... if Labour are fourth in Cheshire and/or the North West, and BXP are top, who is in 2nd and 3rd place? Suppose Lib Dems for one of them, but who else? The Changelings? Or the Greens? Or the Tories?
The Tories I suspect, if not only the Brexit Party and LDs beat Labour but the Tories too that would be an absolutely abysmal result for Corbyn. Hard then to see Starmer not launching a leadership challenge within weeks
> @DecrepitJohnL said: > > @HYUFD said: > > Looks like a Gove v Hunt final two after first MPs declarations though early days but Tory members will not be happy if both Raab and Boris are kept off the members ballot though Farage will be > > > > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1132644004770844672?s=20 > > The question around Gove, Raab and Boris is who inherits the supporters of whichever of them drops out first. > > Which means the worst-performing Brexiteer can be kingmaker and demand his own price.
True though Boris only 1 off Gove and 7 off Hunt and he should pick up most of Raab and Mcvey's support if they drop out and probably some of Javid's too
F1: not a great race from either perspective, although the first third was entertaining. Had the threatened rain arrived I think it might've been a classic.
But then, if I found Jennifer Morrison and Olivia Wilde pillow fighting over which one of them gets to sleep with me that'd improve the day too.
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > @justin124 said: > > > I think not - history teaches us that voters have a much more frivolous attitude to EU elections. Both major parties would fare much better at a GE whatever we see tonight. > > ---- > > Yep I think you are absolutely right with this and all the more so with regard to TBP. Whatever my personal views on the benefits of Brexit, TBP are a single issue party and I just don't believe they have the policies or the people to make real inroads into Parliament in terms of seats. > ---------
When an election becomes about the choice of Prime Minister, it drives votes to the main contender, and their main opponent. If Farage looks like becoming a contender, it could just cause the Tory vote to splinter.
> @DecrepitJohnL said: > > @HYUFD said: > > twitter.com/michaelgove/status/1132615012412010496?s=20 > > Gove wants to "bring our country together" which sounds like a Labour election leaflet.
I like Gove but these sorts of meaningless soundbites are really annoying. I mean just look at the opposite to see how facile his comments are.
'I want to tear our country apart'.
He is going to have to do much better than this if he wants to actually win a General Election at some point.
> @augustus_carp said: > Hag on, wait a minute.... if Labour are fourth in Cheshire and/or the North West, and BXP are top, who is in 2nd and 3rd place? Suppose Lib Dems for one of them, but who else? The Changelings? Or the Greens? Or the Tories?
Cheshire East. 3 large Con majorities and 1 Lab ultra marginal. Should imagine BP first, LD and Tories 2nd and 3rd.
> @kle4 said: > The Lib Dems seem very happy about Brent in London ! > > > > OMG if Labour lose to the Lib Dems there it’s going to be a bloodbath . > > Good. The Tories deserve their larger thrashing, but labour should not get away scot free.
London is the perfect place for a Libdem surge. Mixture of Libdems vs Labour battles in inner London where they have had past strength and Tory vs Libdems battles in outer south west London where libdems have recovered.
Very few councils in London where libdems have not had success in the recent past.
Which London councils could libdems actually do badly in relative to gains elsewhere?
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > The early indications of a success for the Lib Dems and the disaster for labour and the conservatives will play out over the next few days and change the political landscape. Those leadership candidates on the media this weekend making their willingnes to no deal may have committed themselves too soon, when the likes of Gove and Hunt have not committed to anything relevant yet and will be able to craft their bids with the hindsight and aftermath of the EU elections very much in their minds
Yes, but do we know that yet? A lot of rumours and anecdata so far.
> @williamglenn said: > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > @justin124 said: > > > > > I think not - history teaches us that voters have a much more frivolous attitude to EU elections. Both major parties would fare much better at a GE whatever we see tonight. > > > > ---- > > > > Yep I think you are absolutely right with this and all the more so with regard to TBP. Whatever my personal views on the benefits of Brexit, TBP are a single issue party and I just don't believe they have the policies or the people to make real inroads into Parliament in terms of seats. > > > --------- > > When an election becomes about the choice of Prime Minister, it drives votes to the main contender, and their main opponent. If Farage looks like becoming a contender, it could just cause the Tory vote to splinter.
Not with his baggage. At the moment people can turn a blind eye to his NHS policies for example because they can rightly say this election has nothing to do with Health policy. Give any decent spin doctor 5 minutes with what he has said in the past about policies other than the EU and he would be lucky to win a parish council.
BXP - 32% - Low thirties is a fair way up on what UKIP got last time thanks to Tory votes, but with residual UKIP votes I'd agree with you they may not reach the dizzying heights they have threatened.
Labour - 17% - On the low side, as they have had plenty of polling in the 20s, but I am banking on their being at least some basis to some switching to the LDs, but it was pretty late in the day, and as you say they have a great habitual vote.
LD - 15% -Would more than double what they got last time, and be perfectly impressive given they have not heretofore been rewarded for their unequivocal Pro-EU stance. Pushing Labour close for second seems a fine result.
CON - 10% - I do think they will drop more than Robert thinks - the atmosphere among Tories seems to be poisonous, mutinous or depressed, so I think they will do well to stay in double figures - I think so many of their voters will be staying home.
Green - 9% - A good rise, but like the locals not grabbing headlines like the LDs, and probably just missing out on pushing the tories into 5th.
UKIP - 3% - They still managed to send a leaflet to my house which is more than anyone but BXP managed, I don't think they will do well but will hope to have enough in a single region to get something out of this
CUK - 3% - Just not breaking through, will be damn lucky to get anything out of this
> @isam said: > I'm surprised the LDs are still 50/1 to get most seats overall on Betfair Exchange, I'd have put it at more like 20/1 or 25/1. > > BXP 1.01-1.02 now. If they don't win this will be the shortest fav turned over in political betting history wont it?
You’re worrying over nothing . The BP are a nailed on certainty to win . As a Remainer if I could have found a plausible way for them not to win I’d be clinging onto it . As it is the polls might be making a dogs dinner of the other placings but the BP have polled constantly above 30%.
Put the champagne in the freezer ! I will be joining you for other reasons if Labour get hammered by the Lib Dems . As a Labour Remainer only a complete disaster will get through to the delusional Len Mcluskey and the rest of the Corbyn fan club .
A bit like Clinton vs TRump these UK euros. Remain are going to pile up huge votes in the met areas but get trounced in the leave ones where turnout is lower. From what i have heard Lab are going to get buried in the Met areas and that means by definition there vote share will plummet. Also hearing Greens will have a stonking evening.
> @dixiedean said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > The early indications of a success for the Lib Dems and the disaster for labour and the conservatives will play out over the next few days and change the political landscape. Those leadership candidates on the media this weekend making their willingnes to no deal may have committed themselves too soon, when the likes of Gove and Hunt have not committed to anything relevant yet and will be able to craft their bids with the hindsight and aftermath of the EU elections very much in their minds > > Yes, but do we know that yet? A lot of rumours and anecdata so far.
You are right and I should maybe have applied a caveat.
However it does look like the spotlight is going to turn on labour over the next few days with a lot of blood letting. Also we need to see how the EU electors voted and the effect on the future of the EU
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > Not with his baggage. At the moment people can turn a blind eye to his NHS policies for example because they can rightly say this election has nothing to do with Health policy. Give any decent spin doctor 5 minutes with what he has said in the past about policies other than the EU and he would be lucky to win a parish council. -----------
You may be underestimating how much people would brush that off. One of the keys to populism is being unapologetic about criticising sacred cows, and plenty of people's direct experience of the NHS is not so great.
> @isam said: > > @DecrepitJohnL said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > twitter.com/michaelgove/status/1132615012412010496?s=20 > > > > > > Gove wants to "bring our country together" which sounds like a Labour election leaflet. > > > > I like Gove but these sorts of meaningless soundbites are really annoying. I mean just look at the opposite to see how facile his comments are. > > > > 'I want to tear our country apart'. > > > > He is going to have to do much better than this if he wants to actually win a General Election at some point. > > A politician that just says what they really think in simple terms would sweep the floor. Unfortunately there are none
Maybe that new Vivienne Rook MP off the telly. You know, from the 4 Star party.
Actually now I think about it that might be difficult
Very interesting article. Thank you. The people most marginalised at the moment are those who support Brexit on constitutional and democracy grounds, but think that extracting ourselves after 46 years is bound to be long and slow. hence the thoughtful people backing some kind of 'Norway for Now' - which is still the best answer, followed some way behind by TMs deal.
At the moment the only people being listened to (apart from unicorns like official Labour policy, EU will cave in to a different leader etc) are Remain and Rapid Leave. Of the two Remain is so much the more rational that unless something big alters it must be the more likely to occur.
There has been less discussion that you might expect of this issue: If it so hard to leave the EU after 46 years, what are the snags in Scottish independence which would come to haunt us?
I can't remember, how did the Lib Dems manage this when Emma Nicholson crossed over in West Devon? Free ride, or what? (and would it be any different this time, bearing in mind that Nicholson re-defected back to the Tories a few years later?)
> @algarkirk said: > Very interesting article. Thank you. The people most marginalised at the moment are those who support Brexit on constitutional and democracy grounds, but think that extracting ourselves after 46 years is bound to be long and slow. hence the thoughtful people backing some kind of 'Norway for Now' - which is still the best answer, followed some way behind by TMs deal. > > At the moment the only people being listened to (apart from unicorns like official Labour policy, EU will cave in to a different leader etc) are Remain and Rapid Leave. Of the two Remain is so much the more rational that unless something big alters it must be the more likely to occur. > > There has been less discussion that you might expect of this issue: If it so hard to leave the EU after 46 years, what are the snags in Scottish independence which would come to haunt us?
Under the right leadership, the dissolution of the UK could be an exciting opportunity for renewal for the English.
Unfortunately we presently lack any effective leadership at all.
> @El_Capitano said: > > @DecrepitJohnL said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > twitter.com/michaelgove/status/1132615012412010496?s=20 > > > > > > Gove wants to "bring our country together" which sounds like a Labour election leaflet. > > > > I like Gove but these sorts of meaningless soundbites are really annoying. I mean just look at the opposite to see how facile his comments are. > > > > 'I want to tear our country apart'. > > What a tragic waste of a pun opportunity. > > You mean "Gove will tear us apart... again".
Anyone know if Kilburn, Regent's Park and Somers Town have anything special about them which may explain why Labour have won there but not elsewhere, if that info is to be believed?
> @Black_Rook said: > > @algarkirk said: > > Under the right leadership, the dissolution of the UK could be an exciting opportunity for renewal for the English. > > Unfortunately we presently lack any effective leadership at all.
This is why I think it would be a mistake for the Lib Dems to choose a Scottish unionist leader at the moment.
If this is anywhere close to being representative of broader results from London - and if we then assume that the Brexit Party won't do any worse than about 20%, either (given that there are still plenty of Leavers in London, and about half-a-dozen of the outer boroughs actually voted to go) then Labour could be heading for a real shellacking.
> @RobD said: > > @FrancisUrquhart said: > > So have they started counting the euros? > > We have finally been granted permission from our EU overlords to count, yes.
When do they grant permission for the release of the results?
If this is anywhere close to being representative of broader results from London - and if we then assume that the Brexit Party won't do any worse than about 20%, either (given that there are still plenty of Leavers in London, and about half-a-dozen of the outer boroughs actually voted to go) then Labour could be heading for a real shellacking.
Mike's 7/2 bet that LD win London looking purty darn good
> @FrancisUrquhart said: > > @RobD said: > > > @FrancisUrquhart said: > > > So have they started counting the euros? > > > > We have finally been granted permission from our EU overlords to count, yes. > > When do they grant permission for the release of the results?
> @nunuone said: > > @kle4 said: > > The Lib Dems seem very happy about Brent in London ! > > > > > > > > OMG if Labour lose to the Lib Dems there it’s going to be a bloodbath . > > > > Good. The Tories deserve their larger thrashing, but labour should not get away scot free. > > London is the perfect place for a Libdem surge. Mixture of Libdems vs Labour battles in inner London where they have had past strength and Tory vs Libdems battles in outer south west London where libdems have recovered. > > Very few councils in London where libdems have not had success in the recent past. > > > Which London councils could libdems actually do badly in relative to gains elsewhere?
Barking and Dagenham., Bexley, Croydon, Havering, Hillingdon, Redbridge, Enfield, Harrow, Hounslow - plenty of London boroughs where the Lib Dems have patchy to little or no support and local success. Admittedly outside the bubble - so perhaps they aren't so innately self confident!
Not that strong in Westminster, Wandsworth, K&C or Hammersmith either.
> @Morris_Dancer said: > Good afternoon, everyone. > > F1: not a great race from either perspective, although the first third was entertaining. Had the threatened rain arrived I think it might've been a classic. > > But then, if I found Jennifer Morrison and Olivia Wilde pillow fighting over which one of them gets to sleep with me that'd improve the day too.
An instinctive compromiser should always say 'no need to fight, ladies'.
; I like Gove but these sorts of meaningless soundbites are really annoying. I mean just look at the opposite to see how facile his comments are. > 'I want to tear our country apart'.
> What a tragic waste of a pun opportunity.
>
> You mean "Gove will tear us apart... again".
LOL. That is brilliant
Surely he will use "It must be Gove" somehow in his campaign literature
> @Gallowgate said: > Anyone know if Kilburn, Regent's Park and Somers Town have anything special about them which may explain why Labour have won there but not elsewhere, if that info is to be believed?
Kilburn and Somers Town are usually two of the best areas for Labour in Camden, so it's not surprising.
> @algarkirk said: > Very interesting article. Thank you. The people most marginalised at the moment are those who support Brexit on constitutional and democracy grounds, but think that extracting ourselves after 46 years is bound to be long and slow. hence the thoughtful people backing some kind of 'Norway for Now' - which is still the best answer, followed some way behind by TMs deal. > > At the moment the only people being listened to (apart from unicorns like official Labour policy, EU will cave in to a different leader etc) are Remain and Rapid Leave. Of the two Remain is so much the more rational that unless something big alters it must be the more likely to occur. > > There has been less discussion that you might expect of this issue: If it so hard to leave the EU after 46 years, what are the snags in Scottish independence which would come to haunt us?
Wouldn't the UK government being manifestly crap at negotiating be the first massive snag?
If this is anywhere close to being representative of broader results from London - and if we then assume that the Brexit Party won't do any worse than about 20%, either (given that there are still plenty of Leavers in London, and about half-a-dozen of the outer boroughs actually voted to go) then Labour could be heading for a real shellacking.
Mike's 7/2 bet that LD win London looking purty darn good
its nailed on...something weird happening in Enfield.. Also i would not put a penny on the Tories winning ANY london boroughs inc Bexley and Bromley
BY NEGOTIATION OR IF NEGOTIATION CANNOT BE REACHED BY AGREEMENT OF ONE OR BOTH PARTIES WITH NO AGREEMENT
Thats the essence of what the Lisbon Treaty says and thats whats the nodding dogs in the Labour and Liberal Democrat parties signed up to. If they were so concerned about the exit process why didn't they set it out at the time or were they so determined to sell our sovereignty down the river that they glossed over the detail?
It is not Eurosceptics fault that in their hurry to sell the UK out that Blair, Brown and their Libdem pets failed to put in place the safeguards that might have ensured a structured exit. More likely in an insidious attempt to deter nations the EU left it open so that they could sabotage any exit in a manner similar to the bad faith activities they are currently taking place in.
This article is nothing more than purile whining by those who having lost a referendum through complacent incompetence, idleness, delusion and ignorance have done nothing but acted in bad faith (as their friends in Brussels have) over a shabby ill conceived Lisbon agreement that should never have been signed in the first place.
Europhiles cannot get away with blaming their incompetence and / or mailgnance on those who wish to be free of it. It was they who supported the Lisbon Treaty and now they must own it!
> @nico67 said: > The Lib Dems should not change their name , if Change MPs want to join then fine. > > Their brand is recovering so Change UK need to just accept they messed up and show some humility .
Spoil both brands by calling the combined group "Change Lib Dems"??
> @nico67 said: > These are my latest top 50 turnout increases . We still have loads of councils that haven’t reported yet though so a lot could still change . > > Based on Strong Remain /Leave in 2016 55> or weak Remain/Leave 55<? > > Strong Remain 21 > Strong Leave 11 > Weak Remain 8 > Weak Leave 10. > >
To interpret these properly we'd need the numbers in each category to begin with.
> @AndyJS said: > > @Gallowgate said: > > Anyone know if Kilburn, Regent's Park and Somers Town have anything special about them which may explain why Labour have won there but not elsewhere, if that info is to be believed? > > Kilburn and Somers Town are usually two of the best areas for Labour in Camden, so it's not surprising.
As I recall from my very distant Camden days, Regents Park ward is mostly one large estate.
> @oldpolitics said: > > @AndyJS said: > > I'm surprised the LDs are still 50/1 to get most seats overall on Betfair Exchange, I'd have put it at more like 20/1 or 25/1. > > Most seats less likely that most votes given they'll pile up votes in a minority of regions.
I suspect that the most important thought encapsulated in Ms Cyclefree excellent thread is in the penultimate thread,
'The most important lesson is perhaps this: any significant change in the country’s course needs more than Parliamentary approval or passage as the legal default to gain support. It needs it from as many of those who are initially opposed or indifferent or sceptical as possible. Without it, any change will be vulnerable to its first difficulties. Without it, it will not last.'
At the moment it seems that the most comment directed at Remainers is 'You lost; suck it up!".
Which, bearing in mind that the margin was small, doesn't go a long way to unite the country. Unpopular in some quarters that a Customs Union, or May's Deal may be/have been, the fact 'remains' that a significant proportion of the public think the EU membership is, at least, quite a good idea and any government which rides roughshod over those beliefs is not going to last long.
Either that or it is going to have to find such a helping of bread and circuses to bribe enough of the electorate that it will very soon run out of money.
> @nico67 said: > The Lib Dems should not change their name , if Change MPs want to join then fine. > > Their brand is recovering so Change UK need to just accept they messed up and show some humility .
Or they could become Liberal Democrats UK? Seems fair
A quick anecdote from the Emerald Isle - according to RTE, Mr Patrick Sweeney received a total of one vote (that's 1 vote) in the Galway City Central ward.
"Matteo Salvini keeps flouting the rules on electoral silence with a flurry of tweets hash-tagged #voteleaguetoday. “The Europe of finance has failed, today Italy is raising its head,” he wrote in one. “With the Democratic Party and leftwing governments, bureaucrats and bankers won.” "
> @augustus_carp said: > A quick anecdote from the Emerald Isle - according to RTE, Mr Patrick Sweeney received a total of one vote (that's 1 vote) in the Galway City Central ward.
> @brendan16 said: > > @nunuone said: > > > @kle4 said: > > > The Lib Dems seem very happy about Brent in London ! > > > > > > > > > > > > OMG if Labour lose to the Lib Dems there it’s going to be a bloodbath . > > > > > > Good. The Tories deserve their larger thrashing, but labour should not get away scot free. > > > > London is the perfect place for a Libdem surge. Mixture of Libdems vs Labour battles in inner London where they have had past strength and Tory vs Libdems battles in outer south west London where libdems have recovered. > > > > Very few councils in London where libdems have not had success in the recent past. > > > > > > Which London councils could libdems actually do badly in relative to gains elsewhere? > > Barking and Dagenham., Bexley, Croydon, Havering, Hillingdon, Redbridge, Enfield, Harrow, Hounslow - plenty of London boroughs where the Lib Dems have patchy to little or no support and local success. Admittedly outside the bubble - so perhaps they aren't so innately self confident! > > Not that strong in Westminster, Wandsworth, K&C or Hammersmith either. > > So thats only about half the boroughs!
The last four (certainly the three ex-Wandsworth) have the right demographic for a LibDem remain vote this time, though. If the reports from Enfield are true then Harrow would be similar. That just leaves the poorer NE, W and SE Boroughs where the LibDems are unlikely to top the poll.
> @MikeL said: > The way the Con MP declarations are going it's hard to see more than six or seven candidates standing in even the first ballot. > > People aren't going to want to get embarrassingly few votes.
They're more likely to drop out after the first round.
> @FrancisUrquhart said: > > @RobD said: > > > @FrancisUrquhart said: > > > So have they started counting the euros? > > > > We have finally been granted permission from our EU overlords to count, yes. > > When do they grant permission for the release of the results?
it's UK electoral law that dictates we can't release until 10pm. Nothing to do with the EU.
I suspect that the most important thought encapsulated in Ms Cyclefree excellent thread is in the penultimate thread,
'The most important lesson is perhaps this: any significant change in the country’s course needs more than Parliamentary approval or passage as the legal default to gain support. It needs it from as many of those who are initially opposed or indifferent or sceptical as possible. Without it, any change will be vulnerable to its first difficulties. Without it, it will not last.'
At the moment it seems that the most comment directed at Remainers is 'You lost; suck it up!".
Which, bearing in mind that the margin was small, doesn't go a long way to unite the country. Unpopular in some quarters that a Customs Union, or May's Deal may be/have been, the fact 'remains' that a significant proportion of the public think the EU membership is, at least, quite a good idea and any government which rides roughshod over those beliefs is not going to last long.
Either that or it is going to have to find such a helping of bread and circuses to bribe enough of the electorate that it will very soon run out of money.
Aren't those angry at Leavers' apparent refusal to compromise aware that, for the previous decade or so, their side had completely ignored the complaints of what turned out to be over half of the country and, worse still, called them all sorts of names while they did it? Now we have had three years of non implementation of the referendum result, and anyone who dares be annoyed at those seeking to ignore that as well are the bad guys? Amazing
I don’t think it’s a question of good or bad guys but rather of those now seeking to implement Brexit making exactly the same mistake as the pro-EU crowd did - likely with the same dismal long-term result.
You may recall that both in the lead up to the referendum and afterwards I made pretty much the same points you are making about the failure to take immigration and other concerns seriously. We do not cure those concerns by creating new ones now.
> @IanB2 said: > > @nico67 said: > > These are my latest top 50 turnout increases . We still have loads of councils that haven’t reported yet though so a lot could still change . > > > > Based on Strong Remain /Leave in 2016 55> or weak Remain/Leave 55<? > > > > Strong Remain 21 > > Strong Leave 11 > > Weak Remain 8 > > Weak Leave 10. > > > > > > To interpret these properly we'd need the numbers in each category to begin with. > > The largest decreases would also be useful?
The largest decreases are more likely to be found in Labour Leave areas at the moment .
I think apathy there is an issue . What I suspect is happening is that the BP is doing well there helped by that apathy and Labour Remainers deserting the party .
I should also add the Leave areas doing best in terms of turnout increase are generally weak Leave areas , in the current top 20 there are no strong Leave areas.
I think the BP will do well , but their national vote share will be suppressed because strongly Remain areas will narrow the margin in terms of overall votes.
> @dixiedean said: > > @augustus_carp said: > > A quick anecdote from the Emerald Isle - according to RTE, Mr Patrick Sweeney received a total of one vote (that's 1 vote) in the Galway City Central ward. > > Well at least he remembered to vote. I assume.
His vote will count though as it will be transferred to his second (or lower) choice - unlike here under FPTP where it would be totally wasted! His transfer may even decide it all!
The early indications of a success for the Lib Dems and the disaster for labour and the conservatives will play out over the next few days and change the political landscape. Those leadership candidates on the media this weekend making their willingnes to no deal may have committed themselves too soon, when the likes of Gove and Hunt have not committed to anything relevant yet and will be able to craft their bids with the hindsight and aftermath of the EU elections very much in their minds
Could also trigger a leadership challenge on Jezza?
> @rottenborough said: > The early indications of a success for the Lib Dems and the disaster for labour and the conservatives will play out over the next few days and change the political landscape. Those leadership candidates on the media this weekend making their willingnes to no deal may have committed themselves too soon, when the likes of Gove and Hunt have not committed to anything relevant yet and will be able to craft their bids with the hindsight and aftermath of the EU elections very much in their minds > > Could also trigger a leadership challenge on Jezza? > > Or more Lab MPs jumping?
I am not sure if its a mistake (ie they have forgot about it still being live) on behalf of William hills but they are still offering 1/7 on the LDs to get more than 7 seats . The reason I think they may have forgotten is that it is under politics future odds with a load of bets about the next General election. Also 1/20 to get more than 5 seats is still live. Better than the bank overnight rate anyway!
> @augustus_carp said: > A quick anecdote from the Emerald Isle - according to RTE, Mr Patrick Sweeney received a total of one vote (that's 1 vote) in the Galway City Central ward.
My dear chap, it's been a long time! Trust all is well. It's been quite the reunion on here recently.
> @FrancisUrquhart said: > All seems very silly. We vote thursday, they validate but dont count and then count sunday but dont release until the evening.
> @Tabman said: > > @FrancisUrquhart said: > > > @RobD said: > > > > @FrancisUrquhart said: > > > > So have they started counting the euros? > > > > > > We have finally been granted permission from our EU overlords to count, yes. > > > > When do they grant permission for the release of the results? > > it's UK electoral law that dictates we can't release until 10pm. Nothing to do with the EU.
It's part of the EU law that no state can release results before any other.
<i>2. Member States may not officially make public the results of their count until after the close of polling in the Member State whose electors are the last to vote within the period referred to in paragraph 1.</i>
> @MikeL said: > Boris gone above 3 on Betfair - now 3.05. Was Evens / slightly odds on a couple of days ago. > > Looks like he's going in wrong direction pretty rapidly.
> @FrancisUrquhart said: > > @RobD said: > > > @FrancisUrquhart said: > > > So have they started counting the euros? > > > > We have finally been granted permission from our EU overlords to count, yes. > > When do they grant permission for the release of the results?
Not sure why people are up tight about this. It is election to the EU Parliament. As such it seems reasonable to ensure no results are released until the last seats for the Parliament have been voted on.
Comments
> I'm surprised the LDs are still 50/1 to get most seats overall on Betfair Exchange, I'd have put it at more like 20/1 or 25/1.
>
> BXP 1.01-1.02 now. If they don't win this will be the shortest fav turned over in political betting history wont it?
The timing of the cut to 1.01 suggests a punter coming back after watching that 2-hour documentary about tyre choice in tax havens.
> > @isam said:
> > I'm surprised the LDs are still 50/1 to get most seats overall on Betfair Exchange, I'd have put it at more like 20/1 or 25/1.
> >
> > BXP 1.01-1.02 now. If they don't win this will be the shortest fav turned over in political betting history wont it?
>
> The timing of the cut to 1.01 suggests a punter coming back after watching that <b>2-hour documentary about tyre choice in tax havens</b>
> Hag on, wait a minute.... if Labour are fourth in Cheshire and/or the North West, and BXP are top, who is in 2nd and 3rd place? Suppose Lib Dems for one of them, but who else? The Changelings? Or the Greens? Or the Tories?
The Tories I suspect, if not only the Brexit Party and LDs beat Labour but the Tories too that would be an absolutely abysmal result for Corbyn. Hard then to see Starmer not launching a leadership challenge within weeks
> If anyone was betting that turnout would reach a new record, over 38.5%, its going to be very close indeed.
38.5% doesn't strike me as being that remarkable.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > Looks like a Gove v Hunt final two after first MPs declarations though early days but Tory members will not be happy if both Raab and Boris are kept off the members ballot though Farage will be
> >
> > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1132644004770844672?s=20
>
> The question around Gove, Raab and Boris is who inherits the supporters of whichever of them drops out first.
>
> Which means the worst-performing Brexiteer can be kingmaker and demand his own price.
True though Boris only 1 off Gove and 7 off Hunt and he should pick up most of Raab and Mcvey's support if they drop out and probably some of Javid's too
> Austria
> exit poll
>
> People's Party 34.5 (+7.5)
> Social Democrats 23.5 (-0.7)
> FPO 17.7 /-2.2
> Greens 13.5 (-1)
> NEOS 8.0 (-0.1)
>
> Seats
>
> People's Party 7 (+2)
> Social Democrats 5 (=)
> FPO 3 (-1)
> Greens 2 (-1). Back to 3 after Brexit
> NEOS 1 (=)
Great result for Kurz after his Coalition partners problems
F1: not a great race from either perspective, although the first third was entertaining. Had the threatened rain arrived I think it might've been a classic.
But then, if I found Jennifer Morrison and Olivia Wilde pillow fighting over which one of them gets to sleep with me that'd improve the day too.
> > @justin124 said:
>
> > I think not - history teaches us that voters have a much more frivolous attitude to EU elections. Both major parties would fare much better at a GE whatever we see tonight.
>
> ----
>
> Yep I think you are absolutely right with this and all the more so with regard to TBP. Whatever my personal views on the benefits of Brexit, TBP are a single issue party and I just don't believe they have the policies or the people to make real inroads into Parliament in terms of seats.
>
---------
When an election becomes about the choice of Prime Minister, it drives votes to the main contender, and their main opponent. If Farage looks like becoming a contender, it could just cause the Tory vote to splinter.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > twitter.com/michaelgove/status/1132615012412010496?s=20
>
> Gove wants to "bring our country together" which sounds like a Labour election leaflet.
I like Gove but these sorts of meaningless soundbites are really annoying. I mean just look at the opposite to see how facile his comments are.
'I want to tear our country apart'.
He is going to have to do much better than this if he wants to actually win a General Election at some point.
> Hag on, wait a minute.... if Labour are fourth in Cheshire and/or the North West, and BXP are top, who is in 2nd and 3rd place? Suppose Lib Dems for one of them, but who else? The Changelings? Or the Greens? Or the Tories?
Cheshire East. 3 large Con majorities and 1 Lab ultra marginal. Should imagine BP first, LD and Tories 2nd and 3rd.
> The Lib Dems seem very happy about Brent in London !
>
>
>
> OMG if Labour lose to the Lib Dems there it’s going to be a bloodbath .
>
> Good. The Tories deserve their larger thrashing, but labour should not get away scot free.
London is the perfect place for a Libdem surge. Mixture of Libdems vs Labour battles in inner London where they have had past strength and Tory vs Libdems battles in outer south west London where libdems have recovered.
Very few councils in London where libdems have not had success in the recent past.
Which London councils could libdems actually do badly in relative to gains elsewhere?
> The early indications of a success for the Lib Dems and the disaster for labour and the conservatives will play out over the next few days and change the political landscape. Those leadership candidates on the media this weekend making their willingnes to no deal may have committed themselves too soon, when the likes of Gove and Hunt have not committed to anything relevant yet and will be able to craft their bids with the hindsight and aftermath of the EU elections very much in their minds
Yes, but do we know that yet? A lot of rumours and anecdata so far.
>
> A politician that just says what they really think in simple terms would sweep the floor. Unfortunately there are none
-----
How about the Lib Dem slogan of "Bollocks to #####"?
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > @justin124 said:
> >
> > > I think not - history teaches us that voters have a much more frivolous attitude to EU elections. Both major parties would fare much better at a GE whatever we see tonight.
> >
> > ----
> >
> > Yep I think you are absolutely right with this and all the more so with regard to TBP. Whatever my personal views on the benefits of Brexit, TBP are a single issue party and I just don't believe they have the policies or the people to make real inroads into Parliament in terms of seats.
> >
> ---------
>
> When an election becomes about the choice of Prime Minister, it drives votes to the main contender, and their main opponent. If Farage looks like becoming a contender, it could just cause the Tory vote to splinter.
Not with his baggage. At the moment people can turn a blind eye to his NHS policies for example because they can rightly say this election has nothing to do with Health policy. Give any decent spin doctor 5 minutes with what he has said in the past about policies other than the EU and he would be lucky to win a parish council.
Educated people swearing angrily on demand is too contrived for me
BXP - 32% - Low thirties is a fair way up on what UKIP got last time thanks to Tory votes, but with residual UKIP votes I'd agree with you they may not reach the dizzying heights they have threatened.
Labour - 17% - On the low side, as they have had plenty of polling in the 20s, but I am banking on their being at least some basis to some switching to the LDs, but it was pretty late in the day, and as you say they have a great habitual vote.
LD - 15% -Would more than double what they got last time, and be perfectly impressive given they have not heretofore been rewarded for their unequivocal Pro-EU stance. Pushing Labour close for second seems a fine result.
CON - 10% - I do think they will drop more than Robert thinks - the atmosphere among Tories seems to be poisonous, mutinous or depressed, so I think they will do well to stay in double figures - I think so many of their voters will be staying home.
Green - 9% - A good rise, but like the locals not grabbing headlines like the LDs, and probably just missing out on pushing the tories into 5th.
UKIP - 3% - They still managed to send a leaflet to my house which is more than anyone but BXP managed, I don't think they will do well but will hope to have enough in a single region to get something out of this
CUK - 3% - Just not breaking through, will be damn lucky to get anything out of this
> I'm surprised the LDs are still 50/1 to get most seats overall on Betfair Exchange, I'd have put it at more like 20/1 or 25/1.
>
> BXP 1.01-1.02 now. If they don't win this will be the shortest fav turned over in political betting history wont it?
You’re worrying over nothing . The BP are a nailed on certainty to win . As a Remainer if I could have found a plausible way for them not to win I’d be clinging onto it . As it is the polls might be making a dogs dinner of the other placings but the BP have polled constantly above 30%.
Put the champagne in the freezer ! I will be joining you for other reasons if Labour get hammered by the Lib Dems . As a Labour Remainer only a complete disaster will get through to the delusional Len Mcluskey and the rest of the Corbyn fan club .
Remain are going to pile up huge votes in the met areas but get trounced in the leave ones where turnout is lower.
From what i have heard Lab are going to get buried in the Met areas and that means by definition there vote share will plummet.
Also hearing Greens will have a stonking evening.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > The early indications of a success for the Lib Dems and the disaster for labour and the conservatives will play out over the next few days and change the political landscape. Those leadership candidates on the media this weekend making their willingnes to no deal may have committed themselves too soon, when the likes of Gove and Hunt have not committed to anything relevant yet and will be able to craft their bids with the hindsight and aftermath of the EU elections very much in their minds
>
> Yes, but do we know that yet? A lot of rumours and anecdata so far.
You are right and I should maybe have applied a caveat.
However it does look like the spotlight is going to turn on labour over the next few days with a lot of blood letting. Also we need to see how the EU electors voted and the effect on the future of the EU
>
> Not with his baggage. At the moment people can turn a blind eye to his NHS policies for example because they can rightly say this election has nothing to do with Health policy. Give any decent spin doctor 5 minutes with what he has said in the past about policies other than the EU and he would be lucky to win a parish council.
-----------
You may be underestimating how much people would brush that off. One of the keys to populism is being unapologetic about criticising sacred cows, and plenty of people's direct experience of the NHS is not so great.
People aren't going to want to get embarrassingly few votes.
> > @DecrepitJohnL said:
>
> > > @HYUFD said:
>
> > > twitter.com/michaelgove/status/1132615012412010496?s=20
>
> >
>
> > Gove wants to "bring our country together" which sounds like a Labour election leaflet.
>
>
>
> I like Gove but these sorts of meaningless soundbites are really annoying. I mean just look at the opposite to see how facile his comments are.
>
>
>
> 'I want to tear our country apart'.
>
>
>
> He is going to have to do much better than this if he wants to actually win a General Election at some point.
>
> A politician that just says what they really think in simple terms would sweep the floor. Unfortunately there are none
Maybe that new Vivienne Rook MP off the telly. You know, from the 4 Star party.
Actually now I think about it that might be difficult
At the moment the only people being listened to (apart from unicorns like official Labour policy, EU will cave in to a different leader etc) are Remain and Rapid Leave. Of the two Remain is so much the more rational that unless something big alters it must be the more likely to occur.
There has been less discussion that you might expect of this issue: If it so hard to leave the EU after 46 years, what are the snags in Scottish independence which would come to haunt us?
Note: prior to the Coalition, the Liberal Democrats were the main challengers to the Conservatives in South Cambridgeshire (see also: Totnes.)
> https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/1132667499835777024
>
> Note: prior to the Coalition, the Liberal Democrats were the main challengers to the Conservatives in South Cambridgeshire (see also: Totnes.)
I can't remember, how did the Lib Dems manage this when Emma Nicholson crossed over in West Devon? Free ride, or what? (and would it be any different this time, bearing in mind that Nicholson re-defected back to the Tories a few years later?)
You mean "Gove will tear us apart... again".
> https://twitter.com/RichardOsley/status/1132667250698326017
Naughty.
> So have they started counting the euros?
We have finally been granted permission from our EU overlords to count, yes.
> Very interesting article. Thank you. The people most marginalised at the moment are those who support Brexit on constitutional and democracy grounds, but think that extracting ourselves after 46 years is bound to be long and slow. hence the thoughtful people backing some kind of 'Norway for Now' - which is still the best answer, followed some way behind by TMs deal.
>
> At the moment the only people being listened to (apart from unicorns like official Labour policy, EU will cave in to a different leader etc) are Remain and Rapid Leave. Of the two Remain is so much the more rational that unless something big alters it must be the more likely to occur.
>
> There has been less discussion that you might expect of this issue: If it so hard to leave the EU after 46 years, what are the snags in Scottish independence which would come to haunt us?
Under the right leadership, the dissolution of the UK could be an exciting opportunity for renewal for the English.
Unfortunately we presently lack any effective leadership at all.
> > @DecrepitJohnL said:
>
> > > @HYUFD said:
>
> > > twitter.com/michaelgove/status/1132615012412010496?s=20
>
> >
>
> > Gove wants to "bring our country together" which sounds like a Labour election leaflet.
>
>
>
> I like Gove but these sorts of meaningless soundbites are really annoying. I mean just look at the opposite to see how facile his comments are.
>
>
>
> 'I want to tear our country apart'.
>
> What a tragic waste of a pun opportunity.
>
> You mean "Gove will tear us apart... again".
LOL. That is brilliant
> /twitter.com/RichardOsley/status/1132667250698326017
Might as well just announced the figures...
> https://twitter.com/RichardOsley/status/1132667250698326017
There are 18 wards in Camden so Lib Dems have won 15 of them !
That must be a definite win for them there .
> Sinn Fein are taking a hammering in the Irish local elections, I'm glad to see.
Who are making gains?
> > @algarkirk said:
>
> Under the right leadership, the dissolution of the UK could be an exciting opportunity for renewal for the English.
>
> Unfortunately we presently lack any effective leadership at all.
This is why I think it would be a mistake for the Lib Dems to choose a Scottish unionist leader at the moment.
> https://twitter.com/RichardOsley/status/1132667250698326017
If this is anywhere close to being representative of broader results from London - and if we then assume that the Brexit Party won't do any worse than about 20%, either (given that there are still plenty of Leavers in London, and about half-a-dozen of the outer boroughs actually voted to go) then Labour could be heading for a real shellacking.
Their brand is recovering so Change UK need to just accept they messed up and show some humility .
> > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > So have they started counting the euros?
>
> We have finally been granted permission from our EU overlords to count, yes.
When do they grant permission for the release of the results?
> > @RobD said:
> > > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > > So have they started counting the euros?
> >
> > We have finally been granted permission from our EU overlords to count, yes.
>
> When do they grant permission for the release of the results?
Still up for negotiation.
> > @kle4 said:
> > The Lib Dems seem very happy about Brent in London !
> >
> >
> >
> > OMG if Labour lose to the Lib Dems there it’s going to be a bloodbath .
> >
> > Good. The Tories deserve their larger thrashing, but labour should not get away scot free.
>
> London is the perfect place for a Libdem surge. Mixture of Libdems vs Labour battles in inner London where they have had past strength and Tory vs Libdems battles in outer south west London where libdems have recovered.
>
> Very few councils in London where libdems have not had success in the recent past.
>
>
> Which London councils could libdems actually do badly in relative to gains elsewhere?
Barking and Dagenham., Bexley, Croydon, Havering, Hillingdon, Redbridge, Enfield, Harrow, Hounslow - plenty of London boroughs where the Lib Dems have patchy to little or no support and local success. Admittedly outside the bubble - so perhaps they aren't so innately self confident!
Not that strong in Westminster, Wandsworth, K&C or Hammersmith either.
So thats only about half the boroughs!
> Good afternoon, everyone.
>
> F1: not a great race from either perspective, although the first third was entertaining. Had the threatened rain arrived I think it might've been a classic.
>
> But then, if I found Jennifer Morrison and Olivia Wilde pillow fighting over which one of them gets to sleep with me that'd improve the day too.
An instinctive compromiser should always say 'no need to fight, ladies'.
> Anyone know if Kilburn, Regent's Park and Somers Town have anything special about them which may explain why Labour have won there but not elsewhere, if that info is to be believed?
Kilburn and Somers Town are usually two of the best areas for Labour in Camden, so it's not surprising.
> Very interesting article. Thank you. The people most marginalised at the moment are those who support Brexit on constitutional and democracy grounds, but think that extracting ourselves after 46 years is bound to be long and slow. hence the thoughtful people backing some kind of 'Norway for Now' - which is still the best answer, followed some way behind by TMs deal.
>
> At the moment the only people being listened to (apart from unicorns like official Labour policy, EU will cave in to a different leader etc) are Remain and Rapid Leave. Of the two Remain is so much the more rational that unless something big alters it must be the more likely to occur.
>
> There has been less discussion that you might expect of this issue: If it so hard to leave the EU after 46 years, what are the snags in Scottish independence which would come to haunt us?
Wouldn't the UK government being manifestly crap at negotiating be the first massive snag?
Based on Strong Remain /Leave in 2016 55> or weak Remain/Leave 55<?
Strong Remain 21
Strong Leave 11
Weak Remain 8
Weak Leave 10.
Also i would not put a penny on the Tories winning ANY london boroughs inc Bexley and Bromley
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/05/monaco-post-race-analysis-2019.html
BY NEGOTIATION OR IF NEGOTIATION CANNOT BE REACHED BY AGREEMENT OF ONE OR BOTH PARTIES WITH NO AGREEMENT
Thats the essence of what the Lisbon Treaty says and thats whats the nodding dogs in the Labour and Liberal Democrat parties signed up to. If they were so concerned about the exit process why didn't they set it out at the time or were they so determined to sell our sovereignty down the river that they glossed over the detail?
It is not Eurosceptics fault that in their hurry to sell the UK out that Blair, Brown and their Libdem pets failed to put in place the safeguards that might have ensured a structured exit. More likely in an insidious attempt to deter nations the EU left it open so that they could sabotage any exit in a manner similar to the bad faith activities they are currently taking place in.
This article is nothing more than purile whining by those who having lost a referendum through complacent incompetence, idleness, delusion and ignorance have done nothing but acted in bad faith (as their friends in Brussels have) over a shabby ill conceived Lisbon agreement that should never have been signed in the first place.
Europhiles cannot get away with blaming their incompetence and / or mailgnance on those who wish to be free of it. It was they who supported the Lisbon Treaty and now they must own it!
> The Lib Dems should not change their name , if Change MPs want to join then fine.
>
> Their brand is recovering so Change UK need to just accept they messed up and show some humility .
Spoil both brands by calling the combined group "Change Lib Dems"??
> These are my latest top 50 turnout increases . We still have loads of councils that haven’t reported yet though so a lot could still change .
>
> Based on Strong Remain /Leave in 2016 55> or weak Remain/Leave 55<?
>
> Strong Remain 21
> Strong Leave 11
> Weak Remain 8
> Weak Leave 10.
>
>
To interpret these properly we'd need the numbers in each category to begin with.
The largest decreases would also be useful?
> > @Gallowgate said:
> > Anyone know if Kilburn, Regent's Park and Somers Town have anything special about them which may explain why Labour have won there but not elsewhere, if that info is to be believed?
>
> Kilburn and Somers Town are usually two of the best areas for Labour in Camden, so it's not surprising.
As I recall from my very distant Camden days, Regents Park ward is mostly one large estate.
> > @AndyJS said:
> > I'm surprised the LDs are still 50/1 to get most seats overall on Betfair Exchange, I'd have put it at more like 20/1 or 25/1.
>
> Most seats less likely that most votes given they'll pile up votes in a minority of regions.
That was a mistake — I meant to say most votes.
> The Lib Dems should not change their name , if Change MPs want to join then fine.
>
> Their brand is recovering so Change UK need to just accept they messed up and show some humility .
Or they could become Liberal Democrats UK? Seems fair
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/may/26/european-elections-2019-results-eu-election-parliament-brexit-party-farage-tories-may-live
> A quick anecdote from the Emerald Isle - according to RTE, Mr Patrick Sweeney received a total of one vote (that's 1 vote) in the Galway City Central ward.
Well at least he remembered to vote. I assume.
> > @nunuone said:
> > > @kle4 said:
> > > The Lib Dems seem very happy about Brent in London !
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > OMG if Labour lose to the Lib Dems there it’s going to be a bloodbath .
> > >
> > > Good. The Tories deserve their larger thrashing, but labour should not get away scot free.
> >
> > London is the perfect place for a Libdem surge. Mixture of Libdems vs Labour battles in inner London where they have had past strength and Tory vs Libdems battles in outer south west London where libdems have recovered.
> >
> > Very few councils in London where libdems have not had success in the recent past.
> >
> >
> > Which London councils could libdems actually do badly in relative to gains elsewhere?
>
> Barking and Dagenham., Bexley, Croydon, Havering, Hillingdon, Redbridge, Enfield, Harrow, Hounslow - plenty of London boroughs where the Lib Dems have patchy to little or no support and local success. Admittedly outside the bubble - so perhaps they aren't so innately self confident!
>
> Not that strong in Westminster, Wandsworth, K&C or Hammersmith either.
>
> So thats only about half the boroughs!
The last four (certainly the three ex-Wandsworth) have the right demographic for a LibDem remain vote this time, though. If the reports from Enfield are true then Harrow would be similar. That just leaves the poorer NE, W and SE Boroughs where the LibDems are unlikely to top the poll.
> The way the Con MP declarations are going it's hard to see more than six or seven candidates standing in even the first ballot.
>
> People aren't going to want to get embarrassingly few votes.
They're more likely to drop out after the first round.
> > @RobD said:
> > > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > > So have they started counting the euros?
> >
> > We have finally been granted permission from our EU overlords to count, yes.
>
> When do they grant permission for the release of the results?
it's UK electoral law that dictates we can't release until 10pm. Nothing to do with the EU.
CDU 27.5
Greens 20.5
SPD 15.5
AFD 10.5
FPD 5.5
Linke 5.5
Die Partei 2.5
Freie Wähler 2
You may recall that both in the lead up to the referendum and afterwards I made pretty much the same points you are making about the failure to take immigration and other concerns seriously. We do not cure those concerns by creating new ones now.
> > @nico67 said:
> > These are my latest top 50 turnout increases . We still have loads of councils that haven’t reported yet though so a lot could still change .
> >
> > Based on Strong Remain /Leave in 2016 55> or weak Remain/Leave 55<?
> >
> > Strong Remain 21
> > Strong Leave 11
> > Weak Remain 8
> > Weak Leave 10.
> >
> >
>
> To interpret these properly we'd need the numbers in each category to begin with.
>
> The largest decreases would also be useful?
The largest decreases are more likely to be found in Labour Leave areas at the moment .
I think apathy there is an issue . What I suspect is happening is that the BP is doing well there helped by that apathy and Labour Remainers deserting the party .
I should also add the Leave areas doing best in terms of turnout increase are generally weak Leave areas , in the current top 20 there are no strong Leave areas.
I think the BP will do well , but their national vote share will be suppressed because strongly Remain areas will narrow the margin in terms of overall votes.
> > @AndreaParma_82 said:
> > https://twitter.com/RichardOsley/status/1132667250698326017
>
> There are 18 wards in Camden so Lib Dems have won 15 of them !
>
> That must be a definite win for them there .
Now that does seem to breach the definition of releasing results. And from a newspaper editor too!
> > @augustus_carp said:
> > A quick anecdote from the Emerald Isle - according to RTE, Mr Patrick Sweeney received a total of one vote (that's 1 vote) in the Galway City Central ward.
>
> Well at least he remembered to vote. I assume.
His vote will count though as it will be transferred to his second (or lower) choice - unlike here under FPTP where it would be totally wasted! His transfer may even decide it all!
Exit poll for ARD is similar
CDU/CSU-EPP: 28%
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 22%
SPD-S&D: 15.5%
AfD-EFDD: 10.5%
LINKE-LEFT: 5.5%
FDP-ALDE: 5.5%
Or more Lab MPs jumping?
Looks like he's going in wrong direction pretty rapidly.
> The early indications of a success for the Lib Dems and the disaster for labour and the conservatives will play out over the next few days and change the political landscape. Those leadership candidates on the media this weekend making their willingnes to no deal may have committed themselves too soon, when the likes of Gove and Hunt have not committed to anything relevant yet and will be able to craft their bids with the hindsight and aftermath of the EU elections very much in their minds
>
> Could also trigger a leadership challenge on Jezza?
>
> Or more Lab MPs jumping?
Lets hope so
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1132678316698292224
XA is Golden Daw
KKE is Communists
Better than the bank overnight rate anyway!
> A quick anecdote from the Emerald Isle - according to RTE, Mr Patrick Sweeney received a total of one vote (that's 1 vote) in the Galway City Central ward.
My dear chap, it's been a long time! Trust all is well. It's been quite the reunion on here recently.
That looks like value to me.
> All seems very silly. We vote thursday, they validate but dont count and then count sunday but dont release until the evening.
I've never known such a balls up.
Classic EU!
CDU/CSU: 28,0
Greens: 22,0
SPD: 15,5
> > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > > @RobD said:
> > > > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > > > So have they started counting the euros?
> > >
> > > We have finally been granted permission from our EU overlords to count, yes.
> >
> > When do they grant permission for the release of the results?
>
> it's UK electoral law that dictates we can't release until 10pm. Nothing to do with the EU.
It's part of the EU law that no state can release results before any other.
<i>2. Member States may not officially make public the results of their count until after the close of polling in the Member State whose electors are the last to vote within the period referred to in paragraph 1.</i>
> Boris gone above 3 on Betfair - now 3.05. Was Evens / slightly odds on a couple of days ago.
>
> Looks like he's going in wrong direction pretty rapidly.
Good
> > @RobD said:
> > > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > > So have they started counting the euros?
> >
> > We have finally been granted permission from our EU overlords to count, yes.
>
> When do they grant permission for the release of the results?
Not sure why people are up tight about this. It is election to the EU Parliament. As such it seems reasonable to ensure no results are released until the last seats for the Parliament have been voted on.