> @isam said: > Votes in 2014 > > > > NE - 609k > > > > SE - 2,348K > > > > Anyone else surprised the NE finished the count before London? > > Don't the North East always seem to be first to announce the results in General Elections as well? > > They've got one up on London in the play off final anyway, in bizarre circumstances
Half the north east is on the side of the Londoners this afternoon - including me!
Curious. I've just been phone polled by Populus on the Heathrow expansion and my GE voting habits. What was that about? I wonder if Nigel is testing the water before a full-on campaign by the Brexit Party to scrap the third runway. It would be a brilliant way to embarrass Boris.
> @ab195 said: > Out of interest could one of you folk with experience of counts educate those of us with none as to how it’s done? I’m guessing you first screen out spoilt ballots then use the staff to count piles of (100?) votes per candidate? If that’s close to how it’s done, surely you can do that really quickly, even with thousands to count?
A couple of general elections back, it took Hackney about 15 hours to count the votes for their two parliamentary constituencies despite the fact that both are very safe seats. Don't ask me why it took so long.
> @AndyJS said: > > @nunuone said: > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > @timmo said: > > > > I am hearing that LDs have won the following. > > > > Camden by a landslide > > > > Southwark > > > > Barnet > > > > Sutton > > > > Enfield > > > > Kingston > > > > Richmond > > > > Close in others > > > > > > That's supposed to be kept secret until 10pm, officially. > > > > If the libdems have won in Barnet and Enfield they have surely topped the vote in London? > > Enfield was one of the worst places in London for the LDs at the last Euro election, they only got 3%. It would be amazing if they've won there.
I'd expect TBP to come first in Enfield, although the vote share may be very low.
> > On the issue of revealing the results, "not disputing" is not the same as "saying". If I don't dispute that my mum is a hamster, that doesn't mean I've said my mum is a hamster, I've just chosen not to argue the point.
>
>
>
> Enfield seems most unlikely, unless everyone's winning 10 - 15% there
> > Indeed. The LDs are or have been strong in all those except Enfield and Barnet. If they really have won in those two Boroughs then London is going to be exceptionally good for them. The caveat is that the papers won’t be mixed across wards, and whoever is providing the reports may only be looking at papers from one part of the Borough, which may not be representative.
>
> Indeed. I know people are eager for the numbers - but speculation/wishful thinking/despair based on rumour and limited reports really doesn't help anyone.
>
> I know it is 7 hours more to wait for real data to emerge. We ought not to get too ahead of ourselves.
--------------------
And it may be a good time to remind people about Kerry McCarthy in 2010; she got a police caution for revealing postal vote proportions (IIRC) and there were a lot of people rapidly deleting posts on here.
Nobody has revealed any numbers just reports based on anecdotes..they could all be wrong...
Twitter is going to make it very difficult to keep these results secret until 10pm. Only a few years ago it used to be a complete mystery how people had voted in the Euro elections until the official declarations.
I would expect a fair few will drop out after round 1 when they poll 20, 10 or even fewer votes. Some of the candidates barely have 3 declared supporters.> @AndyJS said: > > @nunuone said: > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > @timmo said: > > > > I am hearing that LDs have won the following. > > > > Camden by a landslide > > > > Southwark > > > > Barnet > > > > Sutton > > > > Enfield > > > > Kingston > > > > Richmond > > > > Close in others > > > > > > That's supposed to be kept secret until 10pm, officially. > > > > If the libdems have won in Barnet and Enfield they have surely topped the vote in London? > > Enfield was one of the worst places in London for the LDs at the last Euro election, they only got 3%. It would be amazing if they've won there.
I am wondering if Enfield is being confused with Ealing - the Lib Dems only polled 4% there in last year's local elections behind the Greens. Labour and the Tories won 90% of the vote.
You might also expect the Chukkas to have some impact there as Joan Ryan is a local MP.
If the Lib Dems have won Enfield then they are on course to win the next election with a 300 seat majority - if they can win Edmonton they can win anywhere.......
> @nunuone said: > > @AndyJS said: > > > @timmo said: > > > I am hearing that LDs have won the following. > > > Camden by a landslide > > > Southwark > > > Barnet > > > Sutton > > > Enfield > > > Kingston > > > Richmond > > > Close in others > > > > That's supposed to be kept secret until 10pm, officially. > > If the libdems have won in Barnet and Enfield they have surely topped the vote in London?
Both McDonnell and Chakrabarti were very downbeat this morning in their interviews
If a Lib Dem walk over has occurred in London and the South labour are going to pivot to a referendum or split
Furthermore, and notwithstanding TBP, the narrative will change and the likelyhood of no deal, even brexit, disappear over the horizon
I suspect that the most important thought encapsulated in Ms Cyclefree excellent thread is in the penultimate thread,
'The most important lesson is perhaps this: any significant change in the country’s course needs more than Parliamentary approval or passage as the legal default to gain support. '
At the moment it seems that the most comment directed at Remainers is 'You lost; suck it up!".
Which, bearing in mind that the margin was small, doesn't go a long way to unite the country. Unpopular in some quarters that a Customs Union, or May's Deal may be/have been, the fact 'remains' that a significant proportion of the public think the EU membership is, at least, quite a good idea and any government which rides roughshod over those beliefs is not going to last long.
Either that or it is going to have to find such a helping of bread and circuses to bribe enough of the electorate that it will very soon run out of money.
You lost, suck it up, seems like a taunt, and indeed it is, but it's also extremely sound advice. 'You lost' - accept that basic fact. Everything that could have been thrown at Remain was thrown. There are still so many clinging to the Russians, the racists, Farage, Cummings, to try and deligitimise the result in their own minds, which since they don't actually believe any of it, only leads to anger. 'Suck it up' - move on. We are departing an institution that does not sweep the streets, print the bank notes, or look after the sick. Life after the EU still has excitement, challenge, and ideological battles aplenty. I am not remotely convinced that when we've left, hardcore remainers will spend the rest of their lives in sulky isolation. Refusing to look beyond leaving is akin to a mania, and it hurts and damages those possessed by it more than their political opponents.
You are seriously underestimating the difficulties of leaving and of staying out once we have left. There must be thousands of areas where we have some kind of relationship with the EU. Take the example we were talking about earlier - the European Medicines Agency. Do we subscribe to it? De we build our own? If we build our own do we make it compatible with the EU one or do our own thing? It will be obvious to the people involved in the details which options make rejoining easy and which don't. Should that be a factor in what they decide what to do? Do we accept a sub-optimal arrangement in order to maintain our distance from the EU? If so, just how big a hit are we prepared to take?
And that applies in some form or other in many many areas.
Are the leavers ready for a prolonged battle on front after front? Because if they aren't we'll simply drift back in.
If there are 20 candidates for the Tory leadership, theoretically it could take about 10 weeks to whittle them down the two to face the membership, because only two votes a week are allowed, on Tuesdays and Thursdays. But as other people have said, there'd be a lot of pressure on candidates with only a few votes to drop out as quickly as possible to speed up the process.
> @brendan16 said: > > @williamglenn said: > > > @rottenborough said: > > > Three weeks of voting by Tory MPs: > > > > > > https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1132641563409039361 > > > > I'd be surprised if all the declared candidates make it to the starting gate. > > I would expect a fair few will drop out after round 1 when they poll 20, 10 or even fewer votes. Some of the candidates barely have 3 declared supporters.> @AndyJS said: > > > @nunuone said: > > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > > @timmo said: > > > > > I am hearing that LDs have won the following. > > > > > Camden by a landslide > > > > > Southwark > > > > > Barnet > > > > > Sutton > > > > > Enfield > > > > > Kingston > > > > > Richmond > > > > > Close in others > > > > > > > > That's supposed to be kept secret until 10pm, officially. > > > > > > If the libdems have won in Barnet and Enfield they have surely topped the vote in London? > > > > Enfield was one of the worst places in London for the LDs at the last Euro election, they only got 3%. It would be amazing if they've won there. > > I am wondering if Enfield is being confused with Ealing - the Lib Dems only polled 4% there in last year's local elections behind the Greens. Labour and the Tories won 90% of the vote. > > You might also expect the Chukkas to have some impact there as Joan Ryan is a local MP. > > If the Lib Dems have won Enfield then they are on course to win the next election with a 300 seat majority - if they can win Edmonton they can win anywhere.......
But it would not happen in a GE - Turnout would be much higher and voters would treat the election a lot more seriously.
> @nunuone said: > Didn't the polls that had the Libdems ahead of Labour also have the BXP with a share of the vote that was closer to 35% than 30%.
The Brexit Party share in London will actually be quite important as far as their national share is concerned. If they get 20% in London that means they'll probably get over 30% overall, but if they only get 10% in London they could be on about 25% nationally and it could be close for first places.
> @justin124 said: > > @brendan16 said: > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > Three weeks of voting by Tory MPs: > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1132641563409039361 > > > > > > I'd be surprised if all the declared candidates make it to the starting gate. > > > > I would expect a fair few will drop out after round 1 when they poll 20, 10 or even fewer votes. Some of the candidates barely have 3 declared supporters.> @AndyJS said: > > > > @nunuone said: > > > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > > > @timmo said: > > > > > > I am hearing that LDs have won the following. > > > > > > Camden by a landslide > > > > > > Southwark > > > > > > Barnet > > > > > > Sutton > > > > > > Enfield > > > > > > Kingston > > > > > > Richmond > > > > > > Close in others > > > > > > > > > > That's supposed to be kept secret until 10pm, officially. > > > > > > > > If the libdems have won in Barnet and Enfield they have surely topped the vote in London? > > > > > > Enfield was one of the worst places in London for the LDs at the last Euro election, they only got 3%. It would be amazing if they've won there. > > > > I am wondering if Enfield is being confused with Ealing - the Lib Dems only polled 4% there in last year's local elections behind the Greens. Labour and the Tories won 90% of the vote. > > > > You might also expect the Chukkas to have some impact there as Joan Ryan is a local MP. > > > > If the Lib Dems have won Enfield then they are on course to win the next election with a 300 seat majority - if they can win Edmonton they can win anywhere....... > > But it would not happen in a GE - Turnout would be much higher and voters would treat the election a lot more seriously.
Indeed some polling had a very close race for the top between them Labour and the Lib Dems . This is because of the split Remain votes.
For Labour Remainers who are fed up, if Labour have suffered in London then we need a proper collapse to ensure the Lib Dems come out on top . Otherwise big gob could scrape a win.
> @Cicero said: > > @nico67 said: > > Camden turnout 44.8 % . > > > > Pretty good , up around 4 points on 2014. > > > > 74.9 % Remain in 2016. > > Its all Lib Dem. If this is not just a London effect then this is going to the best night for the Liberal Democrats in over a century.
If areas that voted 75-80 per cent remain in inner London are typical...but perhaps they aren't!
Yet not a single leak on party support from anywhere outside the M25 - 400 plus electoral areas across England, Wales, NI and Scotland. Odd that... Or maybe outside London party agents and verifiers read electoral law - and are following that - as you aren't allowed to publish any indications of voting patterns until 10pm. Surely people who break electoral law should be fined or prosecuted - or are London remainers exempt?...
> @nunuone said: > Didn't the polls that had the Libdems ahead of Labour also have the BXP with a share of the vote that was closer to 35% than 30%.
The question is what happens to the Conservatives. If the Tory vote held up to the point that they do beat Labour, then that has probably reduced TBP too. If the Tories have not collapsed then this could get very close between Lib Dem and TBP. However London and the South East may have kicked the Conservatives harder than predicted so it is a very tight margin between comfortable TBP win and narrow TBP win/Second.
> @justin124 said: > > @ralphmalph said: > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > What time will the count get underway this evening? > > > > 10pm > > > > The count starts in most places at 5pm or 6pm. Results cannot be announced until 10 pm.
I think that's a change from how they used to do it. They actually used to wait until 10pm to start counting the votes for the Euros in 2004 and 2009 IIRC, and the results didn't start coming through until about 2am.
Out of interest could one of you folk with experience of counts educate those of us with none as to how it’s done? I’m guessing you first screen out spoilt ballots then use the staff to count piles of (100?) votes per candidate? If that’s close to how it’s done, surely you can do that really quickly, even with thousands to count?
Ok open ballot box check ballots in it against ballots issued, add to postal votes this gives turnout.
Separate the votes into piles by candidate which then go to someone counting particular candidates not sure if they bundle into 25,s or what but they then go to senior counter who checks the bundle count is correct. They then go on a table in rows for each candidate and if you hadn’t worked out at least the order by straw polls it should become obvious now. There are a few other things to do before declaration like decide on spoilt papers and mis matches in totals. I doubt if recounts happen but don’t know.
> @AndyJS said: > > @nunuone said: > > Didn't the polls that had the Libdems ahead of Labour also have the BXP with a share of the vote that was closer to 35% than 30%. > > The Brexit Party share in London will actually be quite important as far as their national share is concerned. If they get 20% in London that means they'll probably get over 30% overall, but if they only get 10% in London they could be on about 25% nationally and it could be close for first places.
London is half the country? Thinks about it... Oh, I see what you mean.
> @AndyJS said: > > @justin124 said: > > > @ralphmalph said: > > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > > What time will the count get underway this evening? > > > > > > 10pm > > > > > > > The count starts in most places at 5pm or 6pm. Results cannot be announced until 10 pm. > > I think that's a change from how they used to do it. They actually used to wait until 10pm to start counting the votes for the Euros in 2004 and 2009 IIRC, and the results didn't start coming through until about 2am.
In 2014 the North east announced their results at 10.15pm - 15 minutes after 10m. London took over 5 hours to declare - after 3am.
> @nunuone said: > > @AndyJS said: > > My prediction from yesterday was: > > > > BRX 28% > > LD 23% > > Lab 14% > > Con 12% > > Green 10% > > CUK 5% > > UKIP 4% > > Others 4% > > > > Those are GB figures, not UK. > > I mostly agree with that. But would swap Greens with Tories. And take a point away from UKIP and put it to the BXP.
I had it like that to begin with. The Greens have a small chance of beating both main parties which would be a big achievement for them.
> @timmo said: > > @ralphmalph said: > > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > > What time will the count get underway this evening? > > > > > > 10pm > > > > > > > The count starts in most places at 5pm or 6pm. Results cannot be announced until 10 pm. > > Not true..most counts have already taken place
What would the most 'cat amongst the pigeons' result be? The Brexit Party in the mid-to-high 30s with a huge lead, or the Brexit Party in the low 20s with the Lib Dems ahead of them?
One thing I'm sure of is Dan Hannan's prediction of no Tory seats is not going to happen. They will win at least one seat and it's guaranteed to be him because the Tories aren't going below 10% in the South East no matter what happens. (Famous last words).
> @AndyJS said: > > @GIN1138 said: > > Is there any particular reason we're only hear about whats happening in Remain Central (London) ? > > Yes, because London didn't do any verifications on Thursday night.
Surely if other areas did verifications you might expect leaks from outside inner London? So is this pattern from inner London based on factual evidence from ballot papers or just canvass returns?
I expect the counters may also have issues in London because of the ridiculously long ballot paper due to those 7 idiot climate change candidates who didn't understand the electoral process and stood individually rather than on a list thus wasting £30k and quite a lot of paper too! Hopefully the £30k they lose as their deposit will go to a good cause!!
> @williamglenn said: > What would the most 'cat amongst the pigeons' result be? The Brexit Party in the mid-to-high 30s with a huge lead, or the Brexit Party in the low 20s with the Lib Dems ahead of them?
> @isam said: > I suspect that the most important thought encapsulated in Ms Cyclefree excellent thread is in the penultimate thread, > > > > 'The most important lesson is perhaps this: any significant change in the country’s course needs more than Parliamentary approval or passage as the legal default to gain support. It needs it from as many of those who are initially opposed or indifferent or sceptical as possible. Without it, any change will be vulnerable to its first difficulties. Without it, it will not last.' > > > > At the moment it seems that the most comment directed at Remainers is 'You lost; suck it up!". > > Which, bearing in mind that the margin was small, doesn't go a long way to unite the country. Unpopular in some quarters that a Customs Union, or May's Deal may be/have been, the fact 'remains' that a significant proportion of the public think the EU membership is, at least, quite a good idea and any government which rides roughshod over those beliefs is not going to last long. > > Either that or it is going to have to find such a helping of bread and circuses to bribe enough of the electorate that it will very soon run out of money. > > Aren't those angry at Leavers' apparent refusal to compromise aware that, for the previous decade or so, their side had completely ignored the complaints of what turned out to be over half of the country and, worse still, called them all sorts of names while they did it? Now we have had three years of non implementation of the referendum result, and anyone who dares be annoyed at those seeking to ignore that as well are the bad guys? Amazing
I don't recall any abuse of those who wanted to pull out of the Union. I'd accept that those in power didn't take as much notice as perhaps they should, but TBH there was always the option of standing for election and doing something. Which was rarely taken.
> @isam said: > You can still get 5/1 for the Brexit Party to poll between 25% and 29.99% on Betfair Exchange, which is a value bet IMO. > > Stone me Andy how much have you had on this?!
It was 10/1 a few days ago. I mentioned it on here a few times.
> @brendan16 said: > > @AndyJS said: > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > Is there any particular reason we're only hear about whats happening in Remain Central (London) ? > > > > Yes, because London didn't do any verifications on Thursday night. > > Surely if other areas did verifications you might expect leaks from outside inner London? So is this pattern from inner London based on factual evidence from ballot papers or just canvass returns? > > I expect the counters may also have issues in London because of the ridiculously long ballot paper due to those 7 idiot climate change candidates who didn't understand the electoral process and stood individually rather than on a list thus wasting £30k and quite a lot of paper too! Hopefully the £30k they lose as their deposit will go to a good cause!!
It's probably just the innate self-confidence of people in London, believing they can chat about the potential results, whereas people in the rest of the country are more conservative about keeping the results secret as they've been instructed to do. (I know it's just speculation in London not actual results).
> I'd be surprised if all the declared candidates make it to the starting gate.
I would expect a fair few will drop out after round 1 when they poll 20, 10 or even fewer votes. Some of the candidates barely have 3 declared supporters.> @AndyJS said:
> > > > I am hearing that LDs have won the following.
> > > > Camden by a landslide
> > > > Southwark
> > > > Barnet
> > > > Sutton
> > > > Enfield
> > > > Kingston
> > > > Richmond
> > > > Close in others
> > >
> > > That's supposed to be kept secret until 10pm, officially.
> >
> > If the libdems have won in Barnet and Enfield they have surely topped the vote in London?
>
> Enfield was one of the worst places in London for the LDs at the last Euro election, they only got 3%. It would be amazing if they've won there.
I am wondering if Enfield is being confused with Ealing - the Lib Dems only polled 4% there in last year's local elections behind the Greens. Labour and the Tories won 90% of the vote.
You might also expect the Chukkas to have some impact there as Joan Ryan is a local MP.
If the Lib Dems have won Enfield then they are on course to win the next election with a 300 seat majority - if they can win Edmonton they can win anywhere.......
That is the equivalent of saying , if you win £5 on a scratchcard you are on course to win the Euromillions jackpot. Absolute bollox.
> > > Is there any particular reason we're only hear about whats happening in Remain Central (London) ?
> >
> > Yes, because London didn't do any verifications on Thursday night.
>
> Surely if other areas did verifications you might expect leaks from outside inner London? So is this pattern from inner London based on factual evidence from ballot papers or just canvass returns?
>
> I expect the counters may also have issues in London because of the ridiculously long ballot paper due to those 7 idiot climate change candidates who didn't understand the electoral process and stood individually rather than on a list thus wasting £30k and quite a lot of paper too! Hopefully the £30k they lose as their deposit will go to a good cause!!
It's probably just the innate self-confidence of people in London, believing they can chat about the potential results, whereas people in the rest of the country are more conservative about keeping the results secret as they've been instructed to do. (I know it's just speculation in London not actual results).
But for 30k didnt they get an election address posted to all addresses in london?
> @Cicero said: > > @nico67 said: > > Camden turnout 44.8 % . > > > > Pretty good , up around 4 points on 2014. > > > > 74.9 % Remain in 2016. > > Its all Lib Dem. If this is not just a London effect then this is going to the best night for the Liberal Democrats in over a century.
That would be rather surprising given that they have only existed for 30 years!
> > > What time will the count get underway this evening?
>
> >
>
> > 10pm
>
> >
>
>
>
> The count starts in most places at 5pm or 6pm. Results cannot be announced until 10 pm.
>
> Not true..most counts have already taken place
Only the verification check, not the full count
No..counts have occurred..you dont have to believe me but its true
If the counts had taken place then we would have as a minimum seen the betting markets reaction. I don’t believe 1000s of people would be able to keep t secret.
> @malcolmg said: > > @williamglenn said: > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > Three weeks of voting by Tory MPs: > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1132641563409039361 > > > > > > > > I'd be surprised if all the declared candidates make it to the starting gate. > > > > I would expect a fair few will drop out after round 1 when they poll 20, 10 or even fewer votes. Some of the candidates barely have 3 declared supporters.> @AndyJS said: > > > > @nunuone said: > > > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > > > @timmo said: > > > > > > I am hearing that LDs have won the following. > > > > > > Camden by a landslide > > > > > > Southwark > > > > > > Barnet > > > > > > Sutton > > > > > > Enfield > > > > > > Kingston > > > > > > Richmond > > > > > > Close in others > > > > > > > > > > That's supposed to be kept secret until 10pm, officially. > > > > > > > > If the libdems have won in Barnet and Enfield they have surely topped the vote in London? > > > > > > Enfield was one of the worst places in London for the LDs at the last Euro election, they only got 3%. It would be amazing if they've won there. > > > > I am wondering if Enfield is being confused with Ealing - the Lib Dems only polled 4% there in last year's local elections behind the Greens. Labour and the Tories won 90% of the vote. > > > > You might also expect the Chukkas to have some impact there as Joan Ryan is a local MP. > > > > If the Lib Dems have won Enfield then they are on course to win the next election with a 300 seat majority - if they can win Edmonton they can win anywhere....... > > That is the equivalent of saying , if you win £5 on a scratchcard you are on course to win the Euromillions jackpot. Absolute bollox.
It isn't really - I merely point out its not the sort of place you expect the Lib Dems to do anything.
It could of course be close in Enfield with lots of parties in the teens but it really isn't a borough the LDs have any presence in at all. Its quite deprived and not like the other inner London boroughs demographically.
As I pointed out the LDs only won 4% in the local elections last year there - the Greens polled better. Its almost like Labour winning Tunbridge Wells.
I still think its more likely someone has mixed up Enfield and Ealing.
> @IanB2 said: > There were London wide local elections on EU Election Day in 2014, yet the reported Camden turnout is UP on 2014? Now that is remarkable.
Whether there were Locals or not in 2014 doesn't seem to have influenced turnout by much.
One thing I'm sure of is Dan Hannan's prediction of no Tory seats is not going to happen. They will win at least one seat and it's guaranteed to be him because the Tories aren't going below 10% in the South East no matter what happens. (Famous last words).
I think Hannan is very unlikely to be genuinely worried about losing his seat. But I did hear a conversation amongst some people I know to be Tories about how best to send the message that they want Brexit stopped. The conclusion was a one off vote for the Lib Dems. Nothing very surprising for us anoraks on here, but it sounded like for these individuals it was the first time they had thought it through. But the Tory vote is pretty deep in the South East and I think the Brexit pixie is safe enough.
> > > What time will the count get underway this evening?
>
> >
>
> > 10pm
>
> >
>
>
>
> The count starts in most places at 5pm or 6pm. Results cannot be announced until 10 pm.
>
> Not true..most counts have already taken place
Only the verification check, not the full count
No..counts have occurred..you dont have to believe me but its true
If the counts had taken place then we would have as a minimum seen the betting markets reaction. I don’t believe 1000s of people would be able to keep t secret.
Seamus controlling the full EU Lab 'campaign'. Just like the actual referendum all over again. Wake up young momentum kids - you are being taken for fools:
"It's probably just the innate self-confidence of people in London, believing they can chat about the potential results, whereas people in the rest of the country are more conservative about keeping the results secret as they've been instructed to do. (I know it's just speculation in London not actual results)."
The 'innate self confidence of Londoners' - how incredibly patronising! And people elsewhere lack self confidence?
And there was me thinking it was only leavers that didn't comply with electoral law. If results from the verification process linked to party support are being leaked before the 10pm deadline surely there should be an investigation - after all we must comply with electoral commission rules mustn't we.......When will the Observer be on it......Who knows it might affect the result in Bavaria or Andalucia...
You surely can't have one rule for 'innately self confident people' and another for everyone else?
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @justin124 said: > > > @brendan16 said: > > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > > Three weeks of voting by Tory MPs: > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1132641563409039361 > > > > > > > > I'd be surprised if all the declared candidates make it to the starting gate. > > > > > > I would expect a fair few will drop out after round 1 when they poll 20, 10 or even fewer votes. Some of the candidates barely have 3 declared supporters.> @AndyJS said: > > > > > @nunuone said: > > > > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > > > > @timmo said: > > > > > > > I am hearing that LDs have won the following. > > > > > > > Camden by a landslide > > > > > > > Southwark > > > > > > > Barnet > > > > > > > Sutton > > > > > > > Enfield > > > > > > > Kingston > > > > > > > Richmond > > > > > > > Close in others > > > > > > > > > > > > That's supposed to be kept secret until 10pm, officially. > > > > > > > > > > If the libdems have won in Barnet and Enfield they have surely topped the vote in London? > > > > > > > > Enfield was one of the worst places in London for the LDs at the last Euro election, they only got 3%. It would be amazing if they've won there. > > > > > > I am wondering if Enfield is being confused with Ealing - the Lib Dems only polled 4% there in last year's local elections behind the Greens. Labour and the Tories won 90% of the vote. > > > > > > You might also expect the Chukkas to have some impact there as Joan Ryan is a local MP. > > > > > > If the Lib Dems have won Enfield then they are on course to win the next election with a 300 seat majority - if they can win Edmonton they can win anywhere....... > > > > But it would not happen in a GE - Turnout would be much higher and voters would treat the election a lot more seriously. > > 'Straws' and 'grasping at' come to mind !!!!
I think not - history teaches us that voters have a much more frivolous attitude to EU elections. Both major parties would fare much better at a GE whatever we see tonight.
> @rottenborough said: > Seamus controlling the full EU Lab 'campaign'. Just like the actual referendum all over again. Wake up young momentum kids - you are being taken for fools: >
> > I'd be surprised if all the declared candidates make it to the starting gate.
>
>
>
> I would expect a fair few will drop out after round 1 when they poll 20, 10 or even fewer votes. Some of the candidates barely have 3 declared supporters.> @AndyJS said:
> > > > > I am hearing that LDs have won the following.
>
> > > > > Camden by a landslide
>
>
> > > > > Close in others
>
> > > >
>
> > > > That's supposed to be kept secret until 10pm, officially.
>
> > >
>
> > > If the libdems have won in Barnet and Enfield they have surely topped the vote in London?
>
> >
>
> > Enfield was one of the worst places in London for the LDs at the last Euro election, they only got 3%. It would be amazing if they've won there.
>
>
>
> I am wondering if Enfield is being confused with Ealing - the Lib Dems only polled 4% there in last year's local elections behind the Greens. Labour and the Tories won 90% of the vote.
>
>
>
> You might also expect the Chukkas to have some impact there as Joan Ryan is a local MP.
>
>
>
> If the Lib Dems have won Enfield then they are on course to win the next election with a 300 seat majority - if they can win Edmonton they can win anywhere.......
>
As I pointed out the LDs only won 4% in the local elections last year there - the Greens polled better. Its almost like Labour winning Tunbridge Wells.
I still think its more likely someone has mixed up Enfield and Ealing.
Unusual if true but will not be same in a real election. Most people don't count EU elections as of any importance, so a protest vote is easy.
So, perhaps Boris is the answer, as he the candidate most likely to not give two hoots about promising the membership a No Deal in October and then, on election, pivoting to an extension and a negotiation just in time for the call from the Palace.
> @malcolmg said: > > Unusual if true but will not be same in a real election. Most people don't count EU elections as of any importance, so a protest vote is easy.
What will happen between now and the next 'real' election to revive the Tories or Labour?
> @rottenborough said: > A Crewe Labour Cllr from the count thinks Labour will finish 4th in Cheshire. Unless he means Labour to collapse into 4th in NW > > > > https://twitter.com/AntCritchley/status/1132654639730630656 > > > > A Lab councillor who has, potentially, just broken electoral law?
Looks like a Gove v Hunt final two after first MPs declarations though early days but Tory members will not be happy if both Raab and Boris are kept off the members ballot though Farage will be
> @HYUFD said: > Looks like a Gove v Hunt final two after first MPs declarations though early days but Tory members will not be happy if both Raab and Boris are kept off the members ballot though Farage will be > > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1132644004770844672?s=20
Perfect for me and I could not care less about the ukippers in our party or Farage
> @rottenborough said: > > @rottenborough said: > > > A Crewe Labour Cllr from the count thinks Labour will finish 4th in Cheshire. Unless he means Labour to collapse into 4th in NW > > > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/AntCritchley/status/1132654639730630656 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > A Lab councillor who has, potentially, just broken electoral law? > > > > Not unless he's revealing results. > > Isn't "cleaned up" effectively a result. BP top of the poll?
I think it's sufficiently ambiguous to avoid breaking the law.
The Tories effectively abstained from the EU elections - and to only a slightly lesser extent that was also true of Labour. Not quite sure why either party bothered to contest at all.
> @HYUFD said: > Looks like a Gove v Hunt final two after first MPs declarations though early days but Tory members will not be happy if both Raab and Boris are kept off the members ballot though Farage will be > > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1132644004770844672?s=20
The question around Gove, Raab and Boris is who inherits the supporters of whichever of them drops out first.
Which means the worst-performing Brexiteer can be kingmaker and demand his own price.
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @nico67 said: > > The Lib Dems seem very happy about Brent in London ! > > > > OMG if Labour lose to the Lib Dems there it’s going to be a bloodbath . > > Time for Corbyn, McDonnell and the rest to go. Come on labour time to split away from the marxists
They already have, they're called Change UK and they might come last
Hag on, wait a minute.... if Labour are fourth in Cheshire and/or the North West, and BXP are top, who is in 2nd and 3rd place? Suppose Lib Dems for one of them, but who else? The Changelings? Or the Greens? Or the Tories?
> I think not - history teaches us that voters have a much more frivolous attitude to EU elections. Both major parties would fare much better at a GE whatever we see tonight.
----
Yep I think you are absolutely right with this and all the more so with regard to TBP. Whatever my personal views on the benefits of Brexit, TBP are a single issue party and I just don't believe they have the policies or the people to make real inroads into Parliament in terms of seats.
That said I can see the Lib Dems retaining a significant proportion of their vote heading towards a GE so long as Corbyn is still in charge of the Labour Party.
Comments
> There is a possibility that the Tories wont win a seat in London from what im hearing
What are Gavin Esler's chances of winning a seat for ChangeUK?
> Votes in 2014
>
>
>
> NE - 609k
>
>
>
> SE - 2,348K
>
>
>
> Anyone else surprised the NE finished the count before London?
>
> Don't the North East always seem to be first to announce the results in General Elections as well?
>
> They've got one up on London in the play off final anyway, in bizarre circumstances
Half the north east is on the side of the Londoners this afternoon - including me!
> Out of interest could one of you folk with experience of counts educate those of us with none as to how it’s done? I’m guessing you first screen out spoilt ballots then use the staff to count piles of (100?) votes per candidate? If that’s close to how it’s done, surely you can do that really quickly, even with thousands to count?
A couple of general elections back, it took Hackney about 15 hours to count the votes for their two parliamentary constituencies despite the fact that both are very safe seats. Don't ask me why it took so long.
> > @nunuone said:
> > > @AndyJS said:
> > > > @timmo said:
> > > > I am hearing that LDs have won the following.
> > > > Camden by a landslide
> > > > Southwark
> > > > Barnet
> > > > Sutton
> > > > Enfield
> > > > Kingston
> > > > Richmond
> > > > Close in others
> > >
> > > That's supposed to be kept secret until 10pm, officially.
> >
> > If the libdems have won in Barnet and Enfield they have surely topped the vote in London?
>
> Enfield was one of the worst places in London for the LDs at the last Euro election, they only got 3%. It would be amazing if they've won there.
I'd expect TBP to come first in Enfield, although the vote share may be very low.
BRX 28%
LD 23%
Lab 14%
Con 12%
Green 10%
CUK 5%
UKIP 4%
Others 4%
Those are GB figures, not UK.
> > @rottenborough said:
> > Three weeks of voting by Tory MPs:
> >
> > https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1132641563409039361
>
> I'd be surprised if all the declared candidates make it to the starting gate.
I would expect a fair few will drop out after round 1 when they poll 20, 10 or even fewer votes. Some of the candidates barely have 3 declared supporters.> @AndyJS said:
> > @nunuone said:
> > > @AndyJS said:
> > > > @timmo said:
> > > > I am hearing that LDs have won the following.
> > > > Camden by a landslide
> > > > Southwark
> > > > Barnet
> > > > Sutton
> > > > Enfield
> > > > Kingston
> > > > Richmond
> > > > Close in others
> > >
> > > That's supposed to be kept secret until 10pm, officially.
> >
> > If the libdems have won in Barnet and Enfield they have surely topped the vote in London?
>
> Enfield was one of the worst places in London for the LDs at the last Euro election, they only got 3%. It would be amazing if they've won there.
I am wondering if Enfield is being confused with Ealing - the Lib Dems only polled 4% there in last year's local elections behind the Greens. Labour and the Tories won 90% of the vote.
You might also expect the Chukkas to have some impact there as Joan Ryan is a local MP.
If the Lib Dems have won Enfield then they are on course to win the next election with a 300 seat majority - if they can win Edmonton they can win anywhere.......
> > @AndyJS said:
> > > @timmo said:
> > > I am hearing that LDs have won the following.
> > > Camden by a landslide
> > > Southwark
> > > Barnet
> > > Sutton
> > > Enfield
> > > Kingston
> > > Richmond
> > > Close in others
> >
> > That's supposed to be kept secret until 10pm, officially.
>
> If the libdems have won in Barnet and Enfield they have surely topped the vote in London?
Both McDonnell and Chakrabarti were very downbeat this morning in their interviews
If a Lib Dem walk over has occurred in London and the South labour are going to pivot to a referendum or split
Furthermore, and notwithstanding TBP, the narrative will change and the likelyhood of no deal, even brexit, disappear over the horizon
And that applies in some form or other in many many areas.
Are the leavers ready for a prolonged battle on front after front? Because if they aren't we'll simply drift back in.
> > @williamglenn said:
> > > @rottenborough said:
> > > Three weeks of voting by Tory MPs:
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1132641563409039361
> >
> > I'd be surprised if all the declared candidates make it to the starting gate.
>
> I would expect a fair few will drop out after round 1 when they poll 20, 10 or even fewer votes. Some of the candidates barely have 3 declared supporters.> @AndyJS said:
> > > @nunuone said:
> > > > @AndyJS said:
> > > > > @timmo said:
> > > > > I am hearing that LDs have won the following.
> > > > > Camden by a landslide
> > > > > Southwark
> > > > > Barnet
> > > > > Sutton
> > > > > Enfield
> > > > > Kingston
> > > > > Richmond
> > > > > Close in others
> > > >
> > > > That's supposed to be kept secret until 10pm, officially.
> > >
> > > If the libdems have won in Barnet and Enfield they have surely topped the vote in London?
> >
> > Enfield was one of the worst places in London for the LDs at the last Euro election, they only got 3%. It would be amazing if they've won there.
>
> I am wondering if Enfield is being confused with Ealing - the Lib Dems only polled 4% there in last year's local elections behind the Greens. Labour and the Tories won 90% of the vote.
>
> You might also expect the Chukkas to have some impact there as Joan Ryan is a local MP.
>
> If the Lib Dems have won Enfield then they are on course to win the next election with a 300 seat majority - if they can win Edmonton they can win anywhere.......
But it would not happen in a GE - Turnout would be much higher and voters would treat the election a lot more seriously.
> Didn't the polls that had the Libdems ahead of Labour also have the BXP with a share of the vote that was closer to 35% than 30%.
The Brexit Party share in London will actually be quite important as far as their national share is concerned. If they get 20% in London that means they'll probably get over 30% overall, but if they only get 10% in London they could be on about 25% nationally and it could be close for first places.
> > @brendan16 said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > Three weeks of voting by Tory MPs:
> > > >
> > > > https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1132641563409039361
> > >
> > > I'd be surprised if all the declared candidates make it to the starting gate.
> >
> > I would expect a fair few will drop out after round 1 when they poll 20, 10 or even fewer votes. Some of the candidates barely have 3 declared supporters.> @AndyJS said:
> > > > @nunuone said:
> > > > > @AndyJS said:
> > > > > > @timmo said:
> > > > > > I am hearing that LDs have won the following.
> > > > > > Camden by a landslide
> > > > > > Southwark
> > > > > > Barnet
> > > > > > Sutton
> > > > > > Enfield
> > > > > > Kingston
> > > > > > Richmond
> > > > > > Close in others
> > > > >
> > > > > That's supposed to be kept secret until 10pm, officially.
> > > >
> > > > If the libdems have won in Barnet and Enfield they have surely topped the vote in London?
> > >
> > > Enfield was one of the worst places in London for the LDs at the last Euro election, they only got 3%. It would be amazing if they've won there.
> >
> > I am wondering if Enfield is being confused with Ealing - the Lib Dems only polled 4% there in last year's local elections behind the Greens. Labour and the Tories won 90% of the vote.
> >
> > You might also expect the Chukkas to have some impact there as Joan Ryan is a local MP.
> >
> > If the Lib Dems have won Enfield then they are on course to win the next election with a 300 seat majority - if they can win Edmonton they can win anywhere.......
>
> But it would not happen in a GE - Turnout would be much higher and voters would treat the election a lot more seriously.
'Straws' and 'grasping at' come to mind !!!!
Indeed some polling had a very close race for the top between them Labour and the Lib Dems . This is because of the split Remain votes.
For Labour Remainers who are fed up, if Labour have suffered in London then we need a proper collapse to ensure the Lib Dems come out on top . Otherwise big gob could scrape a win.
> Is there any particular reason we're only hear about whats happening in Remain Central (London) ?
Yes, because London didn't do any verifications on Thursday night.
> > @nico67 said:
> > Camden turnout 44.8 % .
> >
> > Pretty good , up around 4 points on 2014.
> >
> > 74.9 % Remain in 2016.
>
> Its all Lib Dem. If this is not just a London effect then this is going to the best night for the Liberal Democrats in over a century.
If areas that voted 75-80 per cent remain in inner London are typical...but perhaps they aren't!
Yet not a single leak on party support from anywhere outside the M25 - 400 plus electoral areas across England, Wales, NI and Scotland. Odd that... Or maybe outside London party agents and verifiers read electoral law - and are following that - as you aren't allowed to publish any indications of voting patterns until 10pm. Surely people who break electoral law should be fined or prosecuted - or are London remainers exempt?...
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > What time will the count get underway this evening?
>
> 10pm
>
The count starts in most places at 5pm or 6pm. Results cannot be announced until 10 pm.
> Didn't the polls that had the Libdems ahead of Labour also have the BXP with a share of the vote that was closer to 35% than 30%.
The question is what happens to the Conservatives. If the Tory vote held up to the point that they do beat Labour, then that has probably reduced TBP too. If the Tories have not collapsed then this could get very close between Lib Dem and TBP. However London and the South East may have kicked the Conservatives harder than predicted so it is a very tight margin between comfortable TBP win and narrow TBP win/Second.
> > @ralphmalph said:
> > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > What time will the count get underway this evening?
> >
> > 10pm
> >
>
> The count starts in most places at 5pm or 6pm. Results cannot be announced until 10 pm.
I think that's a change from how they used to do it. They actually used to wait until 10pm to start counting the votes for the Euros in 2004 and 2009 IIRC, and the results didn't start coming through until about 2am.
Separate the votes into piles by candidate which then go to someone counting particular candidates not sure if they bundle into 25,s or what but they then go to senior counter who checks the bundle count is correct. They then go on a table in rows for each candidate and if you hadn’t worked out at least the order by straw polls it should become obvious now. There are a few other things to do before declaration like decide on spoilt papers and mis matches in totals. I doubt if recounts happen but don’t know.
> > @nunuone said:
> > Didn't the polls that had the Libdems ahead of Labour also have the BXP with a share of the vote that was closer to 35% than 30%.
>
> The Brexit Party share in London will actually be quite important as far as their national share is concerned. If they get 20% in London that means they'll probably get over 30% overall, but if they only get 10% in London they could be on about 25% nationally and it could be close for first places.
London is half the country?
Thinks about it...
Oh, I see what you mean.
https://twitter.com/rickrodan/status/1132645503060140032
> > @justin124 said:
> > > @ralphmalph said:
> > > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > > What time will the count get underway this evening?
> > >
> > > 10pm
> > >
> >
> > The count starts in most places at 5pm or 6pm. Results cannot be announced until 10 pm.
>
> I think that's a change from how they used to do it. They actually used to wait until 10pm to start counting the votes for the Euros in 2004 and 2009 IIRC, and the results didn't start coming through until about 2am.
In 2014 the North east announced their results at 10.15pm - 15 minutes after 10m. London took over 5 hours to declare - after 3am.
Not sure why that was?
Scotland and NI don't count until tomorrow.
> My prediction from yesterday was:
>
> BRX 28%
> LD 23%
> Lab 14%
> Con 12%
> Green 10%
> CUK 5%
> UKIP 4%
> Others 4%
>
> Those are GB figures, not UK.
I mostly agree with that. But would swap Greens with Tories. And take a point away from UKIP and put it to the BXP.
> > @AndyJS said:
> > My prediction from yesterday was:
> >
> > BRX 28%
> > LD 23%
> > Lab 14%
> > Con 12%
> > Green 10%
> > CUK 5%
> > UKIP 4%
> > Others 4%
> >
> > Those are GB figures, not UK.
>
> I mostly agree with that. But would swap Greens with Tories. And take a point away from UKIP and put it to the BXP.
I had it like that to begin with. The Greens have a small chance of beating both main parties which would be a big achievement for them.
> > @ralphmalph said:
>
> > > @GIN1138 said:
>
> > > What time will the count get underway this evening?
>
> >
>
> > 10pm
>
> >
>
>
>
> The count starts in most places at 5pm or 6pm. Results cannot be announced until 10 pm.
>
> Not true..most counts have already taken place
Only the verification check, not the full count
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > Is there any particular reason we're only hear about whats happening in Remain Central (London) ?
>
> Yes, because London didn't do any verifications on Thursday night.
Surely if other areas did verifications you might expect leaks from outside inner London? So is this pattern from inner London based on factual evidence from ballot papers or just canvass returns?
I expect the counters may also have issues in London because of the ridiculously long ballot paper due to those 7 idiot climate change candidates who didn't understand the electoral process and stood individually rather than on a list thus wasting £30k and quite a lot of paper too! Hopefully the £30k they lose as their deposit will go to a good cause!!
> What would the most 'cat amongst the pigeons' result be? The Brexit Party in the mid-to-high 30s with a huge lead, or the Brexit Party in the low 20s with the Lib Dems ahead of them?
The latter hopefully
> I suspect that the most important thought encapsulated in Ms Cyclefree excellent thread is in the penultimate thread,
>
>
>
> 'The most important lesson is perhaps this: any significant change in the country’s course needs more than Parliamentary approval or passage as the legal default to gain support. It needs it from as many of those who are initially opposed or indifferent or sceptical as possible. Without it, any change will be vulnerable to its first difficulties. Without it, it will not last.'
>
>
>
> At the moment it seems that the most comment directed at Remainers is 'You lost; suck it up!".
>
> Which, bearing in mind that the margin was small, doesn't go a long way to unite the country. Unpopular in some quarters that a Customs Union, or May's Deal may be/have been, the fact 'remains' that a significant proportion of the public think the EU membership is, at least, quite a good idea and any government which rides roughshod over those beliefs is not going to last long.
>
> Either that or it is going to have to find such a helping of bread and circuses to bribe enough of the electorate that it will very soon run out of money.
>
> Aren't those angry at Leavers' apparent refusal to compromise aware that, for the previous decade or so, their side had completely ignored the complaints of what turned out to be over half of the country and, worse still, called them all sorts of names while they did it? Now we have had three years of non implementation of the referendum result, and anyone who dares be annoyed at those seeking to ignore that as well are the bad guys? Amazing
I don't recall any abuse of those who wanted to pull out of the Union. I'd accept that those in power didn't take as much notice as perhaps they should, but TBH there was always the option of standing for election and doing something. Which was rarely taken.
> You can still get 5/1 for the Brexit Party to poll between 25% and 29.99% on Betfair Exchange, which is a value bet IMO.
>
> Stone me Andy how much have you had on this?!
It was 10/1 a few days ago. I mentioned it on here a few times.
> > @AndyJS said:
> > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > Is there any particular reason we're only hear about whats happening in Remain Central (London) ?
> >
> > Yes, because London didn't do any verifications on Thursday night.
>
> Surely if other areas did verifications you might expect leaks from outside inner London? So is this pattern from inner London based on factual evidence from ballot papers or just canvass returns?
>
> I expect the counters may also have issues in London because of the ridiculously long ballot paper due to those 7 idiot climate change candidates who didn't understand the electoral process and stood individually rather than on a list thus wasting £30k and quite a lot of paper too! Hopefully the £30k they lose as their deposit will go to a good cause!!
It's probably just the innate self-confidence of people in London, believing they can chat about the potential results, whereas people in the rest of the country are more conservative about keeping the results secret as they've been instructed to do. (I know it's just speculation in London not actual results).
> > @nico67 said:
> > Camden turnout 44.8 % .
> >
> > Pretty good , up around 4 points on 2014.
> >
> > 74.9 % Remain in 2016.
>
> Its all Lib Dem. If this is not just a London effect then this is going to the best night for the Liberal Democrats in over a century.
That would be rather surprising given that they have only existed for 30 years!
> > @williamglenn said:
>
> > > @rottenborough said:
>
> > > Three weeks of voting by Tory MPs:
>
> > >
>
> > > https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1132641563409039361
>
>
>
> >
>
> > I'd be surprised if all the declared candidates make it to the starting gate.
>
>
>
> I would expect a fair few will drop out after round 1 when they poll 20, 10 or even fewer votes. Some of the candidates barely have 3 declared supporters.> @AndyJS said:
>
> > > @nunuone said:
>
> > > > @AndyJS said:
>
> > > > > @timmo said:
>
> > > > > I am hearing that LDs have won the following.
>
> > > > > Camden by a landslide
>
> > > > > Southwark
>
> > > > > Barnet
>
> > > > > Sutton
>
> > > > > Enfield
>
> > > > > Kingston
>
> > > > > Richmond
>
> > > > > Close in others
>
> > > >
>
> > > > That's supposed to be kept secret until 10pm, officially.
>
> > >
>
> > > If the libdems have won in Barnet and Enfield they have surely topped the vote in London?
>
> >
>
> > Enfield was one of the worst places in London for the LDs at the last Euro election, they only got 3%. It would be amazing if they've won there.
>
>
>
> I am wondering if Enfield is being confused with Ealing - the Lib Dems only polled 4% there in last year's local elections behind the Greens. Labour and the Tories won 90% of the vote.
>
>
>
> You might also expect the Chukkas to have some impact there as Joan Ryan is a local MP.
>
>
>
> If the Lib Dems have won Enfield then they are on course to win the next election with a 300 seat majority - if they can win Edmonton they can win anywhere.......
>
> That is the equivalent of saying , if you win £5 on a scratchcard you are on course to win the Euromillions jackpot. Absolute bollox.
It isn't really - I merely point out its not the sort of place you expect the Lib Dems to do anything.
It could of course be close in Enfield with lots of parties in the teens but it really isn't a borough the LDs have any presence in at all. Its quite deprived and not like the other inner London boroughs demographically.
As I pointed out the LDs only won 4% in the local elections last year there - the Greens polled better. Its almost like Labour winning Tunbridge Wells.
I still think its more likely someone has mixed up Enfield and Ealing.
> There were London wide local elections on EU Election Day in 2014, yet the reported Camden turnout is UP on 2014? Now that is remarkable.
Whether there were Locals or not in 2014 doesn't seem to have influenced turnout by much.
Perhaps this is where the leaks are coming from .
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1132653746863972353
The 'innate self confidence of Londoners' - how incredibly patronising! And people elsewhere lack self confidence?
And there was me thinking it was only leavers that didn't comply with electoral law. If results from the verification process linked to party support are being leaked before the 10pm deadline surely there should be an investigation - after all we must comply with electoral commission rules mustn't we.......When will the Observer be on it......Who knows it might affect the result in Bavaria or Andalucia...
You surely can't have one rule for 'innately self confident people' and another for everyone else?
> > @justin124 said:
> > > @brendan16 said:
> > > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > > Three weeks of voting by Tory MPs:
> > > > >
> > > > > https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1132641563409039361
> > > >
> > > > I'd be surprised if all the declared candidates make it to the starting gate.
> > >
> > > I would expect a fair few will drop out after round 1 when they poll 20, 10 or even fewer votes. Some of the candidates barely have 3 declared supporters.> @AndyJS said:
> > > > > @nunuone said:
> > > > > > @AndyJS said:
> > > > > > > @timmo said:
> > > > > > > I am hearing that LDs have won the following.
> > > > > > > Camden by a landslide
> > > > > > > Southwark
> > > > > > > Barnet
> > > > > > > Sutton
> > > > > > > Enfield
> > > > > > > Kingston
> > > > > > > Richmond
> > > > > > > Close in others
> > > > > >
> > > > > > That's supposed to be kept secret until 10pm, officially.
> > > > >
> > > > > If the libdems have won in Barnet and Enfield they have surely topped the vote in London?
> > > >
> > > > Enfield was one of the worst places in London for the LDs at the last Euro election, they only got 3%. It would be amazing if they've won there.
> > >
> > > I am wondering if Enfield is being confused with Ealing - the Lib Dems only polled 4% there in last year's local elections behind the Greens. Labour and the Tories won 90% of the vote.
> > >
> > > You might also expect the Chukkas to have some impact there as Joan Ryan is a local MP.
> > >
> > > If the Lib Dems have won Enfield then they are on course to win the next election with a 300 seat majority - if they can win Edmonton they can win anywhere.......
> >
> > But it would not happen in a GE - Turnout would be much higher and voters would treat the election a lot more seriously.
>
> 'Straws' and 'grasping at' come to mind !!!!
I think not - history teaches us that voters have a much more frivolous attitude to EU elections. Both major parties would fare much better at a GE whatever we see tonight.
> Seamus controlling the full EU Lab 'campaign'. Just like the actual referendum all over again. Wake up young momentum kids - you are being taken for fools:
>
https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/1132601777109590018
https://twitter.com/AntCritchley/status/1132654639730630656
So, perhaps Boris is the answer, as he the candidate most likely to not give two hoots about promising the membership a No Deal in October and then, on election, pivoting to an extension and a negotiation just in time for the call from the Palace.
Voted 75% Remain in 2016.
>
> Unusual if true but will not be same in a real election. Most people don't count EU elections as of any importance, so a protest vote is easy.
What will happen between now and the next 'real' election to revive the Tories or Labour?
"Our great party" is sounding pretty bloody hollow these days I'm afraid. Shitshow is a better word.
> A Crewe Labour Cllr from the count thinks Labour will finish 4th in Cheshire. Unless he means Labour to collapse into 4th in NW
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/AntCritchley/status/1132654639730630656
>
>
>
> A Lab councillor who has, potentially, just broken electoral law?
Not unless he's revealing results.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1132644004770844672?s=20
> Looks like a Gove v Hunt final two after first MPs declarations though early days but Tory members will not be happy if both Raab and Boris are kept off the members ballot though Farage will be
>
> https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1132644004770844672?s=20
Perfect for me and I could not care less about the ukippers in our party or Farage
> I'm surprised the LDs are still 50/1 to get most seats overall on Betfair Exchange, I'd have put it at more like 20/1 or 25/1.
Most seats less likely that most votes given they'll pile up votes in a minority of regions.
> > @rottenborough said:
>
> > A Crewe Labour Cllr from the count thinks Labour will finish 4th in Cheshire. Unless he means Labour to collapse into 4th in NW
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > https://twitter.com/AntCritchley/status/1132654639730630656
>
>
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > A Lab councillor who has, potentially, just broken electoral law?
>
>
>
> Not unless he's revealing results.
>
> Isn't "cleaned up" effectively a result. BP top of the poll?
I think it's sufficiently ambiguous to avoid breaking the law.
exit poll
People's Party 34.5 (+7.5)
Social Democrats 23.5 (-0.7)
FPO 17.7 /-2.2
Greens 13.5 (-1)
NEOS 8.0 (-0.1)
Seats
People's Party 7 (+2)
Social Democrats 5 (=)
FPO 3 (-1)
Greens 2 (-1). Back to 3 after Brexit
NEOS 1 (=)
> A Crewe Labour Cllr from the count thinks Labour will finish 4th in Cheshire. Unless he means Labour to collapse into 4th in NW
>
> https://twitter.com/AntCritchley/status/1132654639730630656
First decent straw in the wind for the Brexit Party.
> Islington turnout 47.7% up over 7% on 2014.
>
> Voted 75% Remain in 2016.
Wow. BXP are lucky these votes are regional instead of national.
London is their best chance though to win a region .
> twitter.com/michaelgove/status/1132615012412010496?s=20
Gove wants to "bring our country together" which sounds like a Labour election leaflet.
OMG if Labour lose to the Lib Dems there it’s going to be a bloodbath .
> The Lib Dems seem very happy about Brent in London !
>
> OMG if Labour lose to the Lib Dems there it’s going to be a bloodbath .
Time for Corbyn, McDonnell and the rest to go. Come on labour time to split away from the marxists
exit polls
Disy (EPP) 30% (-8)
Communists 29 (+2)
DIKO (Democrats) 13 (+2)
EDEK (Social Democrats) 10 (+2)
> Looks like a Gove v Hunt final two after first MPs declarations though early days but Tory members will not be happy if both Raab and Boris are kept off the members ballot though Farage will be
>
> https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1132644004770844672?s=20
The question around Gove, Raab and Boris is who inherits the supporters of whichever of them drops out first.
Which means the worst-performing Brexiteer can be kingmaker and demand his own price.
> > @nico67 said:
> > The Lib Dems seem very happy about Brent in London !
> >
> > OMG if Labour lose to the Lib Dems there it’s going to be a bloodbath .
>
> Time for Corbyn, McDonnell and the rest to go. Come on labour time to split away from the marxists
They already have, they're called Change UK and they might come last
> I think not - history teaches us that voters have a much more frivolous attitude to EU elections. Both major parties would fare much better at a GE whatever we see tonight.
----
Yep I think you are absolutely right with this and all the more so with regard to TBP. Whatever my personal views on the benefits of Brexit, TBP are a single issue party and I just don't believe they have the policies or the people to make real inroads into Parliament in terms of seats.
That said I can see the Lib Dems retaining a significant proportion of their vote heading towards a GE so long as Corbyn is still in charge of the Labour Party.
> Cyprus
>
> exit polls
>
> Disy (EPP) 30% (-8)
> Communists 29 (+2)
> DIKO (Democrats) 13 (+2)
> EDEK (Social Democrats) 10 (+2)
Centre Right vs. The far far left