> @Cyclefree said: > Interesting that in the Leeds result the combined Lib Dem/Green vote was higher than the Brexit party vote. Was Leeds for Remain or Leave in the referendum?
> @Cyclefree said: > Interesting that in the Leeds result the combined Lib Dem/Green vote was higher than the Brexit party vote. Was Leeds for Remain or Leave in the referendum?
BXP heading for about 34% on my maths based on results so far. Phew (from a betting perspective - over 40% was bad). I suspect over/under 35% may come down to GB vs UK.
> @Casino_Royale said: > > @rcs1000 said: > > My (gut) feel is that these numbers are pointing to BRX 33-35%, LDs 20%. > > > > Labour not doing badly enough for me to win my bet, I fear.
+++++++++++++++
I'd now move my BRX forecast up to 35%.
I'm reckoning that the LDs will be comfortably ahead of Lab on these numbers.
Interestingly (or depressingly from a polarisation of the country PoV), the Green strength means that I think it's going to look very finely balanced between LD/G/CUK and BRX.
Tories look like they'll be lucky to beat the Greens.
Again, let us remember that them coming 5th, even possibly 6th, was mooted before tonight. Personally I thought it would be tight, but they'd just edge out the Greens. That does not look likely right now.
> 57% in Leeds voting for Remain parties if you include Labour.
But it isn't as simple as that. I suspect a good percentage of the Labour Remain vote jumped ship - so it could be that the rump is either ambivalent or Leave. We just can't tell.
Quite possibly Labour’s residual vote is more leave than the Tories’ residual vote.
> @Casino_Royale said: > > @TheWhiteRabbit said: > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > What do these results point to for Labour vote share? > > > > ballpark, lost half, say 12% > > I need them under 15‰
> @AndyJS said: > > @kle4 said: > > Tory worse nightmares looking possible? > > These results are far worse than I was expecting for the Tories, and I was expecting them to get about 12% overall.
> @TheScreamingEagles said: > So it appears my father and myself are the only Tories in Sheffield. > > Shout out to my father as the only person who voted Labour in 1983 and Tory in 2019.
Didn't he vote Con in 1997 and LibDem in 2015 as well ?
> @TheWhiteRabbit said: > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > @TheWhiteRabbit said: > > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > What do these results point to for Labour vote share? > > > > > > ballpark, lost half, say 12% > > > > I need them under 15‰ > > I would say promising for you then
At least the choice of no deal or remain is filtering through to the politicians now - other than Rory Stewart who will propose a halfway house option now?
> @Richard_Nabavi said: > I can't help feeling that my punt at 6/4 on Labour getting the highest vote share wasn't the finest of my political bets.
If you want a laugh, Richard, you can find the polling graph between now and then. It's hilarious. It's like Wall St in the great depression, Lab needing to add bits of paper on the bottom.
> @IanB2 said: > > @AndyJS said: > > > 57% in Leeds voting for Remain parties if you include Labour. > > > > But it isn't as simple as that. I suspect a good percentage of the Labour Remain vote jumped ship - so it could be that the rump is either ambivalent or Leave. We just can't tell. > > Quite possibly Labour’s residual vote is more leave than the Tories’ residual vote.
I think Labour has held on to much of its inner city shithole vote which is otherwise going TBP in non urban areas.
Comments
> What do these results point to for Labour vote share?
ballpark, lost half, say 12%
> Interesting that in the Leeds result the combined Lib Dem/Green vote was higher than the Brexit party vote. Was Leeds for Remain or Leave in the referendum?
Marginally Remain.
https://twitter.com/cardiffcouncil/status/1132755317505384448?s=20
> Interesting that in the Leeds result the combined Lib Dem/Green vote was higher than the Brexit party vote. Was Leeds for Remain or Leave in the referendum?
50.3% Remain
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/helenpidd/status/1132755661878628352
>
> How are you ukip getting 6000 votes when BXP are getting 50% of the vote
A good night in store for BXP?
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132756713105448965
> > @rcs1000 said:
> > My (gut) feel is that these numbers are pointing to BRX 33-35%, LDs 20%.
> >
>
> Labour not doing badly enough for me to win my bet, I fear.
+++++++++++++++
I'd now move my BRX forecast up to 35%.
I'm reckoning that the LDs will be comfortably ahead of Lab on these numbers.
Interestingly (or depressingly from a polarisation of the country PoV), the Green strength means that I think it's going to look very finely balanced between LD/G/CUK and BRX.
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132756123646341121
> >
> > I don’t know what’s more amazing, Labour fourth or the Conservatives sixth.
>
> Or the Green Party within a gnats wotsit of winning
Sheffield Central must be a big target for the Greens now at the GE.
> > @Casino_Royale said:
> > What do these results point to for Labour vote share?
>
> ballpark, lost half, say 12%
I need them under 15‰
Shout out to my father as the only person who voted Labour in 1983 and Tory in 2019.
https://twitter.com/haughey_clare/status/1132753917094371328
SLab fcuked
https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1132756987559718912
> > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
> > > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > What do these results point to for Labour vote share?
> >
> > ballpark, lost half, say 12%
>
> I need them under 15‰
I would say promising for you then
> > @kle4 said:
> > Tory worse nightmares looking possible?
>
> These results are far worse than I was expecting for the Tories, and I was expecting them to get about 12% overall.
Ruthie’s breeks are reekin.
> https://twitter.com/helenpidd/status/1132755661878628352
Nowhere near half, on those figures - less than 40%.
Lab: 28.0% (-9.8)
LDem: 10.4% (+7.7)
Con: 9.1% (-8.4)
Grn: 7.2% (+3.7)
UKIP: 5.8% (-25.5)
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132756123646341121
>
> I don’t know what’s more amazing, Labour fourth or the Conservatives sixth.
The People's Republic of South Yorkshire? You jest?
> Why are these results not on BBC?
We all know PB is the place to be on election night.
> Brex: 37.0% (+37.0)
> Lab: 28.0% (-9.8)
> LDem: 10.4% (+7.7)
> Con: 9.1% (-8.4)
> Grn: 7.2% (+3.7)
> UKIP: 5.8% (-25.5)
Where?
> Brex: 37.0% (+37.0)
> Lab: 28.0% (-9.8)
> LDem: 10.4% (+7.7)
> Con: 9.1% (-8.4)
> Grn: 7.2% (+3.7)
> UKIP: 5.8% (-25.5)
What are these?
> So it appears my father and myself are the only Tories in Sheffield.
>
> Shout out to my father as the only person who voted Labour in 1983 and Tory in 2019.
Didn't he vote Con in 1997 and LibDem in 2015 as well ?
> Why are these results not on BBC?
BBC now reporting Chelmsford and Sedgemoor
Brexit Party win both, LDs second
Good result for LDs and even ChUK, Cons and Lab not so much.
2017 result Con 55%, LD 24% Lab 19%. So Con share is down by over 40 points, Lab down about 15.
@britainelects
Following Following @britainelects
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Cardiff (Wales) result:
Brex: 21.2% (+21.2)
LDem: 20.9% (+14.2)
PC: 20.2% (+9.4)
Lab: 17.4% (-13.5)
Grn: 8.5% (+1.2)
Con: 6.4% (-12.5)
> > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
> > > > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > > What do these results point to for Labour vote share?
> > >
> > > ballpark, lost half, say 12%
> >
> > I need them under 15‰
>
> I would say promising for you then
Hope so
> https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/1132757445611315202
All in an effort to stick it to the Tories. Excellent.
> https://twitter.com/MammothWhale/status/1132756052410327041
>
> https://twitter.com/haughey_clare/status/1132753917094371328
Feel the love.
> https://twitter.com/jruddy99/status/1132757493157978116
Words fail......
https://twitter.com/AwayDays_/status/1132396530286174215
People Party 7 seats (+2)
Social Democrats 5 (=)
FPO 3 (-1)
Greens 2 (-1)
NEOS 1 (=)
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/jruddy99/status/1132757493157978116
>
> Words fail......
Oh sweet baby...
> Ah, Sir John Curtice.
Reckons Tories have got 10-12%. He's usually right.
I wonder if she might make a move against Jezza?
Now is the time. After a national election where Labour have been demolished.
Brex: 36.5% (+36.5)
Lab: 35.5% (-9.3)
LDem: 7.2% (+5.3)
Grn: 6.7% (+3.5)
UKIP: 5.9% (-24.2)
Con: 5.9% (-5.8)
ChUK: 2.3% (+2.3)
> I am not a fan, but top marks to Emily Thornberry for going on BBC to take the bad news.
Yep, props to her (and the Tory equivalent) for doing it.
At least the choice of no deal or remain is filtering through to the politicians now - other than Rory Stewart who will propose a halfway house option now?
> Anyone sticking with Tory beating Labour?
>
> DId anyone actually suggest that?!
Several posters did yes.
Looks good for LD and Brexit parties so far though
Not top in any poll of members or MPs..
> I can't help feeling that my punt at 6/4 on Labour getting the highest vote share wasn't the finest of my political bets.
If you want a laugh, Richard, you can find the polling graph between now and then. It's hilarious. It's like Wall St in the great depression, Lab needing to add bits of paper on the bottom.
> Britain Elects
>
>
> @britainelects
> Following Following @britainelects
> More
> Cardiff (Wales) result:
>
> Brex: 21.2% (+21.2)
> LDem: 20.9% (+14.2)
> PC: 20.2% (+9.4)
> Lab: 17.4% (-13.5)
> Grn: 8.5% (+1.2)
> Con: 6.4% (-12.5)
So the Brexit party picking up just over half the percentage that voted Leave in the referendum there.
> Britain Elects
>
>
> @britainelects
> Following Following @britainelects
> More
> Cardiff (Wales) result:
>
> Brex: 21.2% (+21.2)
> LDem: 20.9% (+14.2)
> PC: 20.2% (+9.4)
> Lab: 17.4% (-13.5)
> Grn: 8.5% (+1.2)
> Con: 6.4% (-12.5)
Terrific result for Plaid Cymru.
Lab win Redbridge
(For those not watching on BBC - says basically Labour unclear on Brexit and should now back a 2nd Ref, and should then campaign to Remain)
> > @AndyJS said:
>
> > 57% in Leeds voting for Remain parties if you include Labour.
>
>
>
> But it isn't as simple as that. I suspect a good percentage of the Labour Remain vote jumped ship - so it could be that the rump is either ambivalent or Leave. We just can't tell.
>
> Quite possibly Labour’s residual vote is more leave than the Tories’ residual vote.
I think Labour has held on to much of its inner city shithole vote which is otherwise going TBP in non urban areas.
Labour are stuffed aren't they?