politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Maastricht Redux
Comments
-
> @Byronic said:
> Jeremy Corbyn is 70 today (says the BBC). He is too old for this game.
>
>
"But I've learnt so much!"0 -
Sweden official result:
Social Democrats 23.7% -0.9
Moderates 16.7 +3.2
Sweden Democrats 15.6 +5.7
Centre 10.7 +4.2
Greens 11.4 -3.8
Left 6.8 +0.5
Christian Democrats 8.6 +2.7
Liberals 4.1 -5.80 -
-
> @bigjohnowls said:
> Andrew Hawkins
>
>
> @Andrew_ComRes
> Follow Follow @Andrew_ComRes
> More
> We can now publish postal votes from final @ComRes poll (before T May's speech) based on 20% of total voting sample:
> BRX 34%
> Lab 22%
> Con 12%
> LD 11%
> CHUK 5%
> Other (inc Grn) 12%
> #EuropeanElectionResults<
++++
Either the pollsters have lost their minds, or the British people are now consistently and deliberately lying.0 -
425 spoilt ballots...i wonder how many across the country there will be0
-
> @AndreaParma_82 said:
> Italy
>
> Exit poll for La7
>
> Lega 26-29
> PD 21-24
> 5 Stars 20-23
> Forza Italia 9-11
> Brothers of Italy 5-7
> +Europa
>
>
> Exit poll for Rai
>
> Lega 27-31
> PD 21-25
> 5 Stars 18.5-22.5
> Forza Italia 8-12
> Brothers of Italy 5-7.5
> +Europa 2.5-4.5
Comfortable win for Legs and Salvini0 -
Poor for Lega.AndreaParma_82 said:Italy
Exit poll for La
Lega 26-29
PD 21-24
5 Stars 20-23
Forza Italia 9-11
Brothers of Italy 5-7
+Europa 2.5-3.5
Exit poll for Rai
Lega 27-31
PD 21-25
5 Stars 18.5-22.5
Forza Italia 8-12
Brothers of Italy 5-7.5
+Europa 2.5-4.50 -
> @Casino_Royale said:
> Gentleman Jack?
>
> What nonsense is this?
A side of JackW we have never seen before....1 -
Any good website for numbers? Guardian is usually good, but couldn't seem to find one on their page.0
-
> @Sean_F said:
> > @Casino_Royale said:
> > Gentleman Jack?
> >
> > What nonsense is this?
>
> Titillating historical drama about lesbians is all the rage.
Slow. Its 17th century transgenderism now.0 -
No, we just troll the polling companies.Byronic said:> @bigjohnowls said:
> Andrew Hawkins
>
>
> @Andrew_ComRes
> Follow Follow @Andrew_ComRes
> More
> We can now publish postal votes from final @ComRes poll (before T May's speech) based on 20% of total voting sample:
> BRX 34%
> Lab 22%
> Con 12%
> LD 11%
> CHUK 5%
> Other (inc Grn) 12%
> #EuropeanElectionResults<
++++
Either the pollsters have lost their minds, or the British people are now consistently and deliberately lying.0 -
> @Byronic said:
> > @bigjohnowls said:
> > Andrew Hawkins
> >
> >
> > @Andrew_ComRes
> > Follow Follow @Andrew_ComRes
> > More
> > We can now publish postal votes from final @ComRes poll (before T May's speech) based on 20% of total voting sample:
> > BRX 34%
> > Lab 22%
> > Con 12%
> > LD 11%
> > CHUK 5%
> > Other (inc Grn) 12%
> > #EuropeanElectionResults<
>
> ++++
>
> Either the pollsters have lost their minds, or the British people are now consistently and deliberately lying.
Or people who use postal votes are older and less likely to change their votes.1 -
BBC reckons East could declare first in 20 mins0
-
-
> @Scott_P said:
> https://twitter.com/rosschawkins/status/1132753957829390336
Labour 5th in Chelmsford, with barely a tenth of the Brexit vote.....0 -
Has Nigel Farage resigned and unresigned yet?0
-
> @HYUFD said:
> https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1132753238657241089?s=20<
++++
Ah, wait, is this postal votes???
Confused.0 -
Britain Elects
@britainelects
Following Following @britainelects
More
Corby (East Midlands) result:
Brex: 40.2% (+40.2)
Lab: 23.1% (-15.5)
LDem: 11.7% (+9.0)
Grn: 7.6% (+4.1)
Con: 7.3% (-8.9)
UKIP: 5.3% (-29.7)0 -
brokenwheel said:
Poor for Lega.AndreaParma_82 said:Italy
Exit poll for La
Lega 26-29
PD 21-24
5 Stars 20-23
Forza Italia 9-11
Brothers of Italy 5-7
+Europa 2.5-3.5
Exit poll for Rai
Lega 27-31
PD 21-25
5 Stars 18.5-22.5
Forza Italia 8-12
Brothers of Italy 5-7.5
+Europa 2.5-4.5
Well, I'm none the wiser.rcs1000 said:
Great result from Lega.0 -
Ephemera:
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1132753092318060546
https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1132753238657241089
https://twitter.com/rosschawkins/status/1132753616778006528
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1132754031825293312
https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/1132754215321952257
https://twitter.com/RaynerSkyNews/status/11327523071653109760 -
Now we have three or so data points, where are the national projections?0
-
Chelmsford:
BRX 19113
LD 13572
Con 4639
Green 4503
Lab 2237
CUK 1555
UKIP 13510 -
Corby
BP 40
Lab 23
LD 12
Green 8
Tory 7
UKIP 50 -
Brexit Party got 43% here in Stockton. Lab 2nd with 17%, LDs 3rd with 14%0
-
0
-
@Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/rosschawkins/status/1132753957829390336
++++++++++
Chelmsford votes 51:49 for Leave, so could be a fairly decent proxy for the country. Good result for the LDs there.0 -
-
The lovely Katya Adler is on.0
-
> @rcs1000 said:
> > @Byronic said:
> > > @bigjohnowls said:
> > > Andrew Hawkins
> > >
> > >
> > > @Andrew_ComRes
> > > Follow Follow @Andrew_ComRes
> > > More
> > > We can now publish postal votes from final @ComRes poll (before T May's speech) based on 20% of total voting sample:
> > > BRX 34%
> > > Lab 22%
> > > Con 12%
> > > LD 11%
> > > CHUK 5%
> > > Other (inc Grn) 12%
> > > #EuropeanElectionResults<
> >
> > ++++
> >
> > Either the pollsters have lost their minds, or the British people are now consistently and deliberately lying.
>
> Or people who use postal votes are older and less likely to change their votes.
The Lib Dem surge probably came too late for many postal voters.0 -
> @Scott_P said:
> https://twitter.com/hnjsamuels/status/1132754465528926208
Hm, not sure that's how this works0 -
> @AndyJS said:
> Chelmsford:
>
> BRX 19113
> LD 13572
> Con 4639
> Green 4503
> Lab 2237
> CUK 1555
> UKIP 1351
Con 9.8% touch and go for 1 MEP
Lab 5th!!!0 -
Tories behind Labour in Sutton is dismal for them.0
-
> @RochdalePioneers said:
> Brexit Party got 43% here in Stockton. Lab 2nd with 17%, LDs 3rd with 14%
Replicate that across the NE, with far stronger Labour hating seats likely to swing LD than here, and I stand by my BXP 2 LD 1 forecast0 -
> @Sunil_Prasannan said:
> I am ready, man! Ready to get it on!
I got a bad feeling about this drop...0 -
20% for the Greens in Lambeth, a very good showing - but how many seats are actually winnable for them ?0
-
Britain Elects
@britainelects
Following Following @britainelects
More
Folkestone & Hythe (South East) result:
Brex: 48.4% (+48.4)
LDem: 15.6% (+10.6)
Grn: 15.4% (+6.2)
Con: 8.0% (-18.8)
Lab: 6.0% (-4.1)0 -
-
LOL, well it's good but they had been polling over 30 for ages.kle4 said:brokenwheel said:
Poor for Lega.AndreaParma_82 said:Italy
Exit poll for La
Lega 26-29
PD 21-24
5 Stars 20-23
Forza Italia 9-11
Brothers of Italy 5-7
+Europa 2.5-3.5
Exit poll for Rai
Lega 27-31
PD 21-25
5 Stars 18.5-22.5
Forza Italia 8-12
Brothers of Italy 5-7.5
+Europa 2.5-4.5
Well, I'm none the wiser.rcs1000 said:
Great result from Lega.0 -
> @RochdalePioneers said:
> Brexit Party got 43% here in Stockton. Lab 2nd with 17%, LDs 3rd with 14%
Bugger me senseless.0 -
It has to be remembered the polling was not great but not disastrous for them, it is possible they will do ok in plenty of areas - but there's been so many reports of bad results for them that it is probably the case they are down more than they would have expected.Byronic said:Not so bad for Labour?
0 -
0
-
The Greek government has just collapsed
That didn't take long...0 -
0
-
> @TheWhiteRabbit said:
> The Greek government has just collapsed
>
> That didn't take long...
Must have been a heck of an exit poll!1 -
My buy of Brexit seats is also looking ok.0
-
> @Sean_F said:
> > @RochdalePioneers said:
> > Brexit Party got 43% here in Stockton. Lab 2nd with 17%, LDs 3rd with 14%
>
> Bugger me senseless.
>
I have no idea how to calibrate these numbers though. That could be good/bad for Brexit or LD!0 -
Leeds:
BRX 29%
Lab 20%
LD 18%
Green 16%
Con 7%
YP 3%
UKIP 3%
ChangeUK 3%0 -
-
Anyone sticking with Tory beating Labour?0
-
Brexit Party win Leeds on 28% to 20% for Labour, LDs also up 12% and Tories down 12%0
-
Lab second in Leeds, just.0
-
57% in Leeds voting for Remain parties if you include Labour.0
-
> @RobD said:
> > @Sean_F said:
> > > @RochdalePioneers said:
> > > Brexit Party got 43% here in Stockton. Lab 2nd with 17%, LDs 3rd with 14%
> >
> > Bugger me senseless.
> >
>
> I have no idea how to calibrate these numbers though. That could be good/bad for Brexit or LD!
Those are staggering numbers for TBP.0 -
0
-
My (gut) feel is that these numbers are pointing to BRX 33-35%, LDs 20%.0
-
-
Thanks for that.AlastairMeeks said:My buy of Brexit seats is also looking ok.
0 -
High CUK score - any hope of them grabbing a seat in London?Scott_P said:0 -
Exit poll?0
-
Already it’s clear Labour are absolutely being punished by Remainers .
In Leeds Labour down 13 ,Lib Dems up 12.
Wake up Corbyn !0 -
-
Ouch. The only groups who should be happy with that are the Fr...the Faragistas and the San...the Liberal Democrats.Scott_P said:
Of poor old CHUK, the less said the better...0 -
> @Black_Rook said:
> It is not impossible that Labour could be simultaneously wiped out in the North-East and in Wales tonight.
And Scotland?0 -
Lib Dems looking like they will get about 25% of vote now way above projections0
-
0
-
-
> @TheScreamingEagles said:
> https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132756123646341121
I don’t know what’s more amazing, Labour fourth or the Conservatives sixth.0 -
0
-
> @rcs1000 said:
> My (gut) feel is that these numbers are pointing to BRX 33-35%, LDs 20%.
>
Labour not doing badly enough for me to win my bet, I fear.0 -
> @StuartDickson said:
> > @Black_Rook said:
> > It is not impossible that Labour could be simultaneously wiped out in the North-East and in Wales tonight.
>
> And Scotland?
They exist in Scotland?0 -
> @kle4 said:
> https://twitter.com/hnjsamuels/status/1132754465528926208
>
>
>
> High CUK score - any hope of them grabbing a seat in London?
Their best shot but probably 3/1, if that0 -
Punters still voting for UKIP - drag on the ticket for Nigel.0
-
@TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132756123646341121
++++++++++++++++++
That's a staggering Conservative collapse, and an incredible Green performance.0 -
Tory worse nightmares looking possible?0
-
Labour beat Tories in Southend as well.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/11327556753255874560 -
What do these results point to for Labour vote share?0
-
> @Scott_P said:
> https://twitter.com/helenpidd/status/1132755661878628352
How are you ukip getting 6000 votes when BXP are getting 50% of the vote0 -
IIRC LibDems won Newcastle in 2009 Euros.0
-
> @TheScreamingEagles said:
> https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132756123646341121
24% for the Greens in Sheffield is pretty amazing. They'll be pretty disappointed if none of all this translates into seats, though.0 -
> @brokenwheel said:
> Italy
>
> Exit poll for La
> Lega 26-29
> PD 21-24
> 5 Stars 20-23
> Forza Italia 9-11
> Brothers of Italy 5-7
> +Europa 2.5-3.5
>
> Exit poll for Rai
>
> Lega 27-31
> PD 21-25
> 5 Stars 18.5-22.5
> Forza Italia 8-12
> Brothers of Italy 5-7.5
> +Europa 2.5-4.5
>
> Poor for Lega.
Lega up 20 to 25% on 2014 and easily first hardly poor0 -
-
LOL
Sheffield (Yorkshire & the Humber) result: Brex: 28.1% (+28.1) Grn: 24.8% (+12.6) LDem: 18.1% (+8.0) Lab: 17.0% (-16.6) UKIP: 3.9% (-23.8) Con: 3.4% (-7.4)0 -
Interesting that in the Leeds result the combined Lib Dem/Green vote was higher than the Brexit party vote. Was Leeds for Remain or Leave in the referendum?0
-
Croydon (London) result:
Lab: 23.9% (-9.3)
LDem: 22.7% (+18.8)
Brex: 22.1% (+22.1)
Grn: 11.4% (+4.4)
Con: 10.8% (-16.5)0 -
> @AlastairMeeks said:
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132756123646341121
>
> I don’t know what’s more amazing, Labour fourth or the Conservatives sixth.
Or the Green Party within a gnats wotsit of winning0 -
> @AndyJS said:
> 57% in Leeds voting for Remain parties if you include Labour.
But it isn't as simple as that. I suspect a good percentage of the Labour Remain vote jumped ship - so it could be that the rump is either ambivalent or Leave. We just can't tell.0 -
> @dixiedean said:
> Anyone sticking with Tory beating Labour?
Tories look like they'll be lucky to beat the Greens.0