That makes me officially the most geeky person on here.
I don't know, I wrote a script to find comments from specific users who I consider noteworthy and then write them to a data frame then email me a CSV. It's a shame it was in a Jupyter notebook which I don't have access to any more.
> @maaarsh said: > > @AndyJS said: > > I put £20 on the LDs winning most seats at 50/1. Don't expect to win but you never know. > > Given they're likely to be winning in the high turn-out regions, it's fair to assume their vote efficiency will be pretty poor. So for that bet to win, they'd need a comfortable win on headline vote share too. > > Best of luck.
Though there will be similar high turnout districts even in low turnout regions. The macro and micro are driven by the same factors.
> @Jonathan said: > > @rcs1000 said: > > I just read PB on the Oculus Quest browser. > > > > That makes me officially the most geeky person on here. > > You need a VR bar chart.
> @Sean_F said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @RobD said: > > > > @Gallowgate said: > > > > https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1132746074895077377 > > > > > > Tsk, another criminal. > > > > Goodness, maybe some of the polls even underestimated the Brexit Party as well as the LDs > > +18% for the Lib Dems, +8% for TBP on 2014, if that turns out to be the case.
Would be consistent with Brexit Party 36% nationally, assuming a similar relationship to the Referendum vote, and a 5% turnout penalty. Doesn't seem implausible.
> @MaxPB said: > I just read PB on the Oculus Quest browser. > > > > That makes me officially the most geeky person on here. > > I don't know, I wrote a script to find comments from specific users who I consider noteworthy and then write them to a data frame then email me a CSV. It's a shame it was in a Jupyter notebook which I don't have access to any more.
I hope you host your Juypter notebooks on pythonanywhere
> @nico67 said: > > @AndyJS said: > > Richmond Upon Thames, turnout: 53.85%. > > 7% rise in turnout from 2014. > > Remain 69% in 2016. > > If what we’re hearing from other parts of London is correct then the Lib Dems will definitely have topped the poll here.
I was in Kew on Thursday and I've never seen so many Lib Dem posters anywhere.
> @HYUFD said: > > @Sean_F said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @RobD said: > > > > > @Gallowgate said: > > > > > https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1132746074895077377 > > > > > > > > Tsk, another criminal. > > > > > > Goodness, maybe some of the polls even underestimated the Brexit Party as well as the LDs > > > > +18% for the Lib Dems, +8% for TBP on 2014, if that turns out to be the case. > > The TBP did not stand in 2014
> @brendan16 said: > > @dyedwoolie said: > > Sky commentator saying labour may get zero in London! > > Surely they have got more than 8 per cent in the capital - it can’t be that bad?...
Not possible. I think he’s overdoing the hyperbole .
> @HYUFD said: > > @Chris said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > As we await the UK European election results here is President Trump at the Sumo wrestling in Japan today > > > > > > https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1132623971139112960?s=20 > > > > How disappointing. I thought you meant he was taking part. > > He did present the trophy, he has done WWF before
Will be fascinating to see whose predictions on this site are the most inaccurate !
I can only hope that a really horrific result for both Conservative and Labour knock some sense into them. And who will now want to lead the Conservatives when they face potential wipeout in a General election
I do feel that Mrs May's greatest misfortune was that she never faced a proper opposition
> @Sean_F said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Sean_F said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @RobD said: > > > > > > @Gallowgate said: > > > > > > https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1132746074895077377 > > > > > > > > > > Tsk, another criminal. > > > > > > > > Goodness, maybe some of the polls even underestimated the Brexit Party as well as the LDs > > > > > > +18% for the Lib Dems, +8% for TBP on 2014, if that turns out to be the case. > > > > The TBP did not stand in 2014 > > +8% on UKIP.
Same chap reporting a sample from Cardiff: BXP 31%, LD 23%, PC 21%... LAB 10%
> @Peter_the_Punter said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Chris said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > As we await the UK European election results here is President Trump at the Sumo wrestling in Japan today > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1132623971139112960?s=20 > > > > > > How disappointing. I thought you meant he was taking part. > > > > He did present the trophy, he has done WWF before > > World Wildlife Fund?
I discovered today that Tom Newton Dunn is the son of a former Tory, then LD MEP! Just thought some might find it interesting. I discovered this on wiki completely by accident.
I can only hope that a really horrific result for both Conservative and Labour knock some sense into them. And who will now want to lead the Conservatives when they face potential wipeout in a General election
The true believers among the Tories believe that going no deal will deliver them a majority. SOMehow.
As for the result knocking sense into them, we can see from the responses before today andafter the anecdotes that that will not be the case. It's more akin to them having suffered a concussion from the blow, but they will insist on stepping out into the ring again anyway, on wobbly feat and shaking hands. Then they will throw up over us.
> @Black_Rook said: > > @Sean_F said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @Sean_F said: > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > @RobD said: > > > > > > > @Gallowgate said: > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1132746074895077377 > > > > > > > > > > > > Tsk, another criminal. > > > > > > > > > > Goodness, maybe some of the polls even underestimated the Brexit Party as well as the LDs > > > > > > > > +18% for the Lib Dems, +8% for TBP on 2014, if that turns out to be the case. > > > > > > The TBP did not stand in 2014 > > > > +8% on UKIP. > > Same chap reporting a sample from Cardiff: BXP 31%, LD 23%, PC 21%... LAB 10%
Wow, he really gets around. Or makes things up. Delete as appropriate.
> @dyedwoolie said: > > @IanB2 said: > > What might help the Tories is if Labour have a catastrophe aswell . > > > > Technically, but odds are if Labour are having a really bad night, the Tories will be having a disastrously bad night. It will be some solace if Labour are also well down, but if the Tories truly have held only 1 seat, nothing will mollify things for them. If the calculation of 10 were to happen, sure, but no one seems to believe that. > > > > If the Tories beat Labour in Norwich that hardly augurs well > > I can't see it, I think change are 4th, labour 5th, Tories 6th. If Tories are ahead in Norwich labour have completely imploded
> @brendan16 said: > > @Sean_F said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @Sean_F said: > > > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > > > @RobD said: > > > > > > > > @Gallowgate said: > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1132746074895077377 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Tsk, another criminal. > > > > > > > > > > > > Goodness, maybe some of the polls even underestimated the Brexit Party as well as the LDs > > > > > > > > > > +18% for the Lib Dems, +8% for TBP on 2014, if that turns out to be the case. > > > > > > > > The TBP did not stand in 2014 > > > > > > +8% on UKIP. > > > > Same chap reporting a sample from Cardiff: BXP 31%, LD 23%, PC 21%... LAB 10% > > Cardiff is the Just about the most remain council Area in Wales which suggests the BXP have topped the poll in the principality? > > Surely the valleys will give Labour more votes?
I think people underestimated the impact the revoke petition had on politics in Britain. It was the moment the students woke up. Just speaking with my son in Hackney, His whole student class voted. 30 out of 30. The only failure was one who was an EU citizen and not allowed to vote. This is a scandal I am sure we will hear more of. They wanted to vote remain and then choose the party. My son went Green.
> @Chris said: > > @Byronic said: > > I think I want Gove now. > > > > Major, major faults, but the only sane choice, seeing as it has to be a Brexiteer. > > > > > > It comes to something, doesn't it? Praying for Gove to win the leadership, As we prayed for Theresa May three years ago.
This Tory leadership election just gets better and better.
> @justin124 said: > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > @IanB2 said: > > > What might help the Tories is if Labour have a catastrophe aswell . > > > > > > Technically, but odds are if Labour are having a really bad night, the Tories will be having a disastrously bad night. It will be some solace if Labour are also well down, but if the Tories truly have held only 1 seat, nothing will mollify things for them. If the calculation of 10 were to happen, sure, but no one seems to believe that. > > > > > > If the Tories beat Labour in Norwich that hardly augurs well > > > > I can't see it, I think change are 4th, labour 5th, Tories 6th. If Tories are ahead in Norwich labour have completely imploded > > The Tories did control Norwich 1968 - 1970.
> @justin124 said: > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > @IanB2 said: > > > What might help the Tories is if Labour have a catastrophe aswell . > > > > > > Technically, but odds are if Labour are having a really bad night, the Tories will be having a disastrously bad night. It will be some solace if Labour are also well down, but if the Tories truly have held only 1 seat, nothing will mollify things for them. If the calculation of 10 were to happen, sure, but no one seems to believe that. > > > > > > If the Tories beat Labour in Norwich that hardly augurs well > > > > I can't see it, I think change are 4th, labour 5th, Tories 6th. If Tories are ahead in Norwich labour have completely imploded > > The Tories did control Norwich 1968 - 1970.
1968 produced some of the most absurd results ever, with the Conservatives winning Islington, Hackney, Camden, Sheffield, Lambeth etc. Labour only kept Newham with the Mayor's casting vote.
> @justin124 said: > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > @IanB2 said: > > > What might help the Tories is if Labour have a catastrophe aswell . > > > > > > Technically, but odds are if Labour are having a really bad night, the Tories will be having a disastrously bad night. It will be some solace if Labour are also well down, but if the Tories truly have held only 1 seat, nothing will mollify things for them. If the calculation of 10 were to happen, sure, but no one seems to believe that. > > > > > > If the Tories beat Labour in Norwich that hardly augurs well > > > > I can't see it, I think change are 4th, labour 5th, Tories 6th. If Tories are ahead in Norwich labour have completely imploded > > The Tories did control Norwich 1968 - 1970.
I'm guessing that vote base has largely 'moved on'
> @hamiltonace said: > I think people underestimated the impact the revoke petition had on politics in Britain. It was the moment the students woke up.
@brendan16 said: Cardiff is the Just about the most remain council Area in Wales which suggests the BXP have topped the poll in the principality?
Surely the valleys will give Labour more votes?
+++++++++++++++
Given Wales is more Leavey than the UK as a whole, and given you probably only need 26-28% to top the polls in Wales, I would be utterly staggered if they did not come first in the Principality.
Cardiff is the Just about the most remain council Area in Wales which suggests the BXP have topped the poll in the principality?
Surely the valleys will give Labour more votes?
At a guess, no. Lab have begu to loosen ots hold on the Valleys, with Plaid and Ukip (now BXP) attacking it from different directions. If you're a remainer in the Valleys, who are you going to vote for? If you're a leaver in the Valleys, who are you going to vote for? Labour is beginning to become the answer to a question that's no longer being asked...
> @TheWhiteRabbit said: > > @justin124 said: > > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > What might help the Tories is if Labour have a catastrophe aswell . > > > > > > > > Technically, but odds are if Labour are having a really bad night, the Tories will be having a disastrously bad night. It will be some solace if Labour are also well down, but if the Tories truly have held only 1 seat, nothing will mollify things for them. If the calculation of 10 were to happen, sure, but no one seems to believe that. > > > > > > > > If the Tories beat Labour in Norwich that hardly augurs well > > > > > > I can't see it, I think change are 4th, labour 5th, Tories 6th. If Tories are ahead in Norwich labour have completely imploded > > > > The Tories did control Norwich 1968 - 1970. > > And they hold Norwich South, but SIXTH?
North, Norwich south is Clive Lewis Chloe Smith holds Nch Nth for the Tories (just)
> @dyedwoolie said: > > @TheWhiteRabbit said: > > > @justin124 said: > > > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > > What might help the Tories is if Labour have a catastrophe aswell . > > > > > > > > > > Technically, but odds are if Labour are having a really bad night, the Tories will be having a disastrously bad night. It will be some solace if Labour are also well down, but if the Tories truly have held only 1 seat, nothing will mollify things for them. If the calculation of 10 were to happen, sure, but no one seems to believe that. > > > > > > > > > > If the Tories beat Labour in Norwich that hardly augurs well > > > > > > > > I can't see it, I think change are 4th, labour 5th, Tories 6th. If Tories are ahead in Norwich labour have completely imploded > > > > > > The Tories did control Norwich 1968 - 1970. > > > > And they hold Norwich South, but SIXTH? > > North, Norwich south is Clive Lewis > Chloe Smith holds Nch Nth for the Tories (just)
> > > > > Goodness, maybe some of the polls even underestimated the Brexit Party as well as the LDs
> > > >
> > > > +18% for the Lib Dems, +8% for TBP on 2014, if that turns out to be the case.
> > >
> > > The TBP did not stand in 2014
> >
> > +8% on UKIP.
>
> Same chap reporting a sample from Cardiff: BXP 31%, LD 23%, PC 21%... LAB 10%
Wow, he really gets around. Or makes things up. Delete as appropriate.
Snap!
Plus, what's he seeing counted? - postal votes or polling station votes? I suspect the results will be different for each.
It'll be interesting to see how closely the actiual Portsmouth results match this sample.
As I have said before, sampling can be very accurate, but only if you are looking at a representative sample to start with. Wards won’t be well mixed and a sample taken from one table will be looking at one end of an area only. In Portsmouth it matters hugely whether the sample is from North or South.
@Andrew_ComRes Follow Follow @Andrew_ComRes More We can now publish postal votes from final @ComRes poll (before T May's speech) based on 20% of total voting sample: BRX 34% Lab 22% Con 12% LD 11% CHUK 5% Other (inc Grn) 12% #EuropeanElectionResults
BXP - The establishment has been defeated, and we must leave with no deal LDs - The establishment (not us, we promise) has been defeated, and we must remain LAB - Look, don't blame us ok, we did better than the Tories at least Con - *sobs quietly* leave me along, alright? Green - even though we came behind another remain party, clearly we are the voice of the people UKIP - When you think about it, BXP just copied us so we really came top CUK - I am proud to be a member of the LDs.
Comments
> I just read PB on the Oculus Quest browser.
>
> That makes me officially the most geeky person on here.
Only if you did so whilst on a train...
> https://twitter.com/MehreenKhn/status/1132694835113148419?s=20<;
+++++
There's a certain funereal humour in that. Only a scintilla, mind.
> > @Byronic said:
> > > @RobD said:
> > > > @Gallowgate said:
> > > > twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1132746074895077377
> > >
> > > Tsk, another criminal.<
> >
> > +++++
> >
> > Christ.
>
> Tongue in cheek. Unless your comment was also tongue in cheek. In which case, carry on.<
+++++
My remark was aimed at the incredible result, not you.
> > @RobD said:
> > > @Gallowgate said:
> > > https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1132746074895077377
> >
> > Tsk, another criminal.
>
> Goodness, maybe some of the polls even underestimated the Brexit Party as well as the LDs
I’ve been saying this for days. Most Tories seem to have voted TBP
> > @RobD said:
> > > @Gallowgate said:
> > > https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1132746074895077377
> >
> > Tsk, another criminal.
>
> Goodness, maybe some of the polls even underestimated the Brexit Party as well as the LDs
+18% for the Lib Dems, +8% for TBP on 2014, if that turns out to be the case.
> > @RobD said:
> > > @Byronic said:
> > > > @RobD said:
> > > > > @Gallowgate said:
> > > > > twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1132746074895077377
> > > >
> > > > Tsk, another criminal.<
> > >
> > > +++++
> > >
> > > Christ.
> >
> > Tongue in cheek. Unless your comment was also tongue in cheek. In which case, carry on.<
>
> +++++
>
> My remark was aimed at the incredible result, not you.
Ah, my apologies!
> LD winning everything in London
>
> Bit like 1906!
>
Even Havering?
> Richmond Upon Thames, turnout: 53.85%.
7% rise in turnout from 2014.
Remain 69% in 2016.
If what we’re hearing from other parts of London is correct then the Lib Dems will definitely have topped the poll here.
> > @AndyJS said:
> > I put £20 on the LDs winning most seats at 50/1. Don't expect to win but you never know.
>
> Given they're likely to be winning in the high turn-out regions, it's fair to assume their vote efficiency will be pretty poor. So for that bet to win, they'd need a comfortable win on headline vote share too.
>
> Best of luck.
Though there will be similar high turnout districts even in low turnout regions. The macro and micro are driven by the same factors.
> On a non-partisan note - if all the votes have been counted, why will they wait till the early hours to announce them?
They're on double time plus shift allowance. Unionised returning officers, comrade!
> On a non-partisan note - if all the votes have been counted, why will they wait till the early hours to announce them?
Overtime?
> > @rcs1000 said:
> > I just read PB on the Oculus Quest browser.
> >
> > That makes me officially the most geeky person on here.
>
> You need a VR bar chart.
Don't let that LD column take your eye out.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @RobD said:
> > > > @Gallowgate said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1132746074895077377
> > >
> > > Tsk, another criminal.
> >
> > Goodness, maybe some of the polls even underestimated the Brexit Party as well as the LDs
>
> +18% for the Lib Dems, +8% for TBP on 2014, if that turns out to be the case.
The TBP did not stand in 2014
> > @HYUFD said:
> > As we await the UK European election results here is President Trump at the Sumo wrestling in Japan today
> >
> > https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1132623971139112960?s=20
>
> How disappointing. I thought you meant he was taking part.
He failed the weigh-in.
> > @RobD said:
> > > @Gallowgate said:
> > > https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1132746074895077377
> >
> > Tsk, another criminal.<
>
> +++++
>
> Christ.
Would be consistent with Brexit Party 36% nationally, assuming a similar relationship to the Referendum vote, and a 5% turnout penalty. Doesn't seem implausible.
> Sky commentator saying labour may get zero in London!
Surely they have got more than 8 per cent in the capital - it can’t be that bad?...
> On a non-partisan note - if all the votes have been counted, why will they wait till the early hours to announce them?
I’m pretty sure they won’t wait. If the votes are counted, they’ll announce
> I just read PB on the Oculus Quest browser.
>
>
>
> That makes me officially the most geeky person on here.
>
> I don't know, I wrote a script to find comments from specific users who I consider noteworthy and then write them to a data frame then email me a CSV. It's a shame it was in a Jupyter notebook which I don't have access to any more.
I hope you host your Juypter notebooks on pythonanywhere
> > @HYUFD said:
> > As we await the UK European election results here is President Trump at the Sumo wrestling in Japan today
> >
> > https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1132623971139112960?s=20
>
> How disappointing. I thought you meant he was taking part.
He did present the trophy, he has done WWE before
https://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=AwrExwhz_Opcs6YAbgL13olQ;_ylu=X3oDMTBzcTlnazAzBHNlYwNjZC1hdHRyBHNsawNzb3VyY2UEdnRpZAM-/RV=2/RE=1558932724/RO=10/RU=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZEDP5-O9MZI/RK=2/RS=ICKDpeJ7Z_jviX03K8BCDam6W6E-
> > @AndyJS said:
> > Richmond Upon Thames, turnout: 53.85%.
>
> 7% rise in turnout from 2014.
>
> Remain 69% in 2016.
>
> If what we’re hearing from other parts of London is correct then the Lib Dems will definitely have topped the poll here.
I was in Kew on Thursday and I've never seen so many Lib Dem posters anywhere.
> > @Sean_F said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @RobD said:
> > > > > @Gallowgate said:
> > > > > https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1132746074895077377
> > > >
> > > > Tsk, another criminal.
> > >
> > > Goodness, maybe some of the polls even underestimated the Brexit Party as well as the LDs
> >
> > +18% for the Lib Dems, +8% for TBP on 2014, if that turns out to be the case.
>
> The TBP did not stand in 2014
+8% on UKIP.
> > @dyedwoolie said:
> > Sky commentator saying labour may get zero in London!
>
> Surely they have got more than 8 per cent in the capital - it can’t be that bad?...
Not possible. I think he’s overdoing the hyperbole .
> > @Chris said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > As we await the UK European election results here is President Trump at the Sumo wrestling in Japan today
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1132623971139112960?s=20
> >
> > How disappointing. I thought you meant he was taking part.
>
> He did present the trophy, he has done WWF before
World Wildlife Fund?
I can only hope that a really horrific result for both Conservative and Labour knock some sense into them. And who will now want to lead the Conservatives when they face potential wipeout in a General election
I do feel that Mrs May's greatest misfortune was that she never faced a proper opposition
LD winning everything in London
Bit like 1906!
...................................
No I wasn't in London ..... but at the Manchester North West count when Winston Churchill won the seat !! ....
> https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1132750369048662018
Paging @bigjohnowls !!
Major, major faults, but the only sane choice, seeing as it has to be a Brexiteer.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Sean_F said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > @RobD said:
> > > > > > @Gallowgate said:
> > > > > > https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1132746074895077377
> > > > >
> > > > > Tsk, another criminal.
> > > >
> > > > Goodness, maybe some of the polls even underestimated the Brexit Party as well as the LDs
> > >
> > > +18% for the Lib Dems, +8% for TBP on 2014, if that turns out to be the case.
> >
> > The TBP did not stand in 2014
>
> +8% on UKIP.
Same chap reporting a sample from Cardiff: BXP 31%, LD 23%, PC 21%... LAB 10%
> 15 mins to go
We probably have two hours of insipid talking head chat to get through first.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Chris said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > As we await the UK European election results here is President Trump at the Sumo wrestling in Japan today
> > > >
> > > > https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1132623971139112960?s=20
> > >
> > > How disappointing. I thought you meant he was taking part.
> >
> > He did present the trophy, he has done WWF before
>
> World Wildlife Fund?
WWE sorry
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.158458385
> As we await the UK European election results here is President Trump at the Sumo wrestling in Japan today
>
> https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1132623971139112960?s=20
https://twitter.com/DannyZuker/status/1132672574809227265
> https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1132750369048662018
I discovered today that Tom Newton Dunn is the son of a former Tory, then LD MEP! Just thought some might find it interesting. I discovered this on wiki completely by accident.
As for the result knocking sense into them, we can see from the responses before today andafter the anecdotes that that will not be the case. It's more akin to them having suffered a concussion from the blow, but they will insist on stepping out into the ring again anyway, on wobbly feat and shaking hands. Then they will throw up over us.
> Another safe-looking bet, admittedly only at 1.09-1.11: £350 on Tory fewer than NINE seats:
>
> https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.158458385
Well - you can bet on that one !
Surely the valleys will give Labour more votes?
> https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1132746074895077377
>
>
>
> Con 22.2% Lab 17.0% LD10.2% UKIP 34.2% Green 10.4% BNP 1% Others 5.0% in 2014
Staggered the LDs got 10% in Portsmouth in 2014. Were there local elections that day?
On Sky news just now
" a terrible night for the tories (in Wales)"
> > @Sean_F said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @Sean_F said:
> > > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > > @RobD said:
> > > > > > > @Gallowgate said:
> > > > > > > https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1132746074895077377
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Tsk, another criminal.
> > > > >
> > > > > Goodness, maybe some of the polls even underestimated the Brexit Party as well as the LDs
> > > >
> > > > +18% for the Lib Dems, +8% for TBP on 2014, if that turns out to be the case.
> > >
> > > The TBP did not stand in 2014
> >
> > +8% on UKIP.
>
> Same chap reporting a sample from Cardiff: BXP 31%, LD 23%, PC 21%... LAB 10%
Wow, he really gets around. Or makes things up. Delete as appropriate.
> > @IanB2 said:
> > What might help the Tories is if Labour have a catastrophe aswell .
> >
> > Technically, but odds are if Labour are having a really bad night, the Tories will be having a disastrously bad night. It will be some solace if Labour are also well down, but if the Tories truly have held only 1 seat, nothing will mollify things for them. If the calculation of 10 were to happen, sure, but no one seems to believe that.
> >
> > If the Tories beat Labour in Norwich that hardly augurs well
>
> I can't see it, I think change are 4th, labour 5th, Tories 6th. If Tories are ahead in Norwich labour have completely imploded
The Tories did control Norwich 1968 - 1970.
> I think I want Gove now.
>
> Major, major faults, but the only sane choice, seeing as it has to be a Brexiteer.
>
>
It comes to something, doesn't it? Praying for Gove to win the leadership, As we prayed for Theresa May three years ago.
> > @Sean_F said:
>
> > > @HYUFD said:
>
> > > > @Sean_F said:
>
> > > > > @HYUFD said:
>
> > > > > > @RobD said:
>
> > > > > > > @Gallowgate said:
>
> > > > > > > https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1132746074895077377
>
>
>
> > > > > >
>
> > > > > > Tsk, another criminal.
>
> > > > >
>
> > > > > Goodness, maybe some of the polls even underestimated the Brexit Party as well as the LDs
>
> > > >
>
> > > > +18% for the Lib Dems, +8% for TBP on 2014, if that turns out to be the case.
>
> > >
>
> > > The TBP did not stand in 2014
>
> >
>
> > +8% on UKIP.
>
>
>
> Same chap reporting a sample from Cardiff: BXP 31%, LD 23%, PC 21%... LAB 10%
>
> Cardiff is the Just about the most remain council Area in Wales which suggests the BXP have topped the poll in the principality?
>
> Surely the valleys will give Labour more votes?
Yep. 21% is very good for Plaid in Cardiff too.
> > @Byronic said:
> > I think I want Gove now.
> >
> > Major, major faults, but the only sane choice, seeing as it has to be a Brexiteer.
> >
> >
>
> It comes to something, doesn't it? Praying for Gove to win the leadership, As we prayed for Theresa May three years ago.
This Tory leadership election just gets better and better.
> > @dyedwoolie said:
> > > @IanB2 said:
> > > What might help the Tories is if Labour have a catastrophe aswell .
> > >
> > > Technically, but odds are if Labour are having a really bad night, the Tories will be having a disastrously bad night. It will be some solace if Labour are also well down, but if the Tories truly have held only 1 seat, nothing will mollify things for them. If the calculation of 10 were to happen, sure, but no one seems to believe that.
> > >
> > > If the Tories beat Labour in Norwich that hardly augurs well
> >
> > I can't see it, I think change are 4th, labour 5th, Tories 6th. If Tories are ahead in Norwich labour have completely imploded
>
> The Tories did control Norwich 1968 - 1970.
And they hold Norwich South, but SIXTH?
> > @dyedwoolie said:
> > > @IanB2 said:
> > > What might help the Tories is if Labour have a catastrophe aswell .
> > >
> > > Technically, but odds are if Labour are having a really bad night, the Tories will be having a disastrously bad night. It will be some solace if Labour are also well down, but if the Tories truly have held only 1 seat, nothing will mollify things for them. If the calculation of 10 were to happen, sure, but no one seems to believe that.
> > >
> > > If the Tories beat Labour in Norwich that hardly augurs well
> >
> > I can't see it, I think change are 4th, labour 5th, Tories 6th. If Tories are ahead in Norwich labour have completely imploded
>
> The Tories did control Norwich 1968 - 1970.
1968 produced some of the most absurd results ever, with the Conservatives winning Islington, Hackney, Camden, Sheffield, Lambeth etc. Labour only kept Newham with the Mayor's casting vote.
> > @dyedwoolie said:
> > > @IanB2 said:
> > > What might help the Tories is if Labour have a catastrophe aswell .
> > >
> > > Technically, but odds are if Labour are having a really bad night, the Tories will be having a disastrously bad night. It will be some solace if Labour are also well down, but if the Tories truly have held only 1 seat, nothing will mollify things for them. If the calculation of 10 were to happen, sure, but no one seems to believe that.
> > >
> > > If the Tories beat Labour in Norwich that hardly augurs well
> >
> > I can't see it, I think change are 4th, labour 5th, Tories 6th. If Tories are ahead in Norwich labour have completely imploded
>
> The Tories did control Norwich 1968 - 1970.
I'm guessing that vote base has largely 'moved on'
What nonsense is this?
> I think people underestimated the impact the revoke petition had on politics in Britain. It was the moment the students woke up.
Lunchtime? I didn't remember that.
Snap!
Plus, what's he seeing counted? - postal votes or polling station votes? I suspect the results will be different for each.
It'll be interesting to see how closely the actiual Portsmouth results match this sample.
Cardiff is the Just about the most remain council Area in Wales which suggests the BXP have topped the poll in the principality?
Surely the valleys will give Labour more votes?
+++++++++++++++
Given Wales is more Leavey than the UK as a whole, and given you probably only need 26-28% to top the polls in Wales, I would be utterly staggered if they did not come first in the Principality.
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1132751912825237505
> > @justin124 said:
> > > @dyedwoolie said:
> > > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > What might help the Tories is if Labour have a catastrophe aswell .
> > > >
> > > > Technically, but odds are if Labour are having a really bad night, the Tories will be having a disastrously bad night. It will be some solace if Labour are also well down, but if the Tories truly have held only 1 seat, nothing will mollify things for them. If the calculation of 10 were to happen, sure, but no one seems to believe that.
> > > >
> > > > If the Tories beat Labour in Norwich that hardly augurs well
> > >
> > > I can't see it, I think change are 4th, labour 5th, Tories 6th. If Tories are ahead in Norwich labour have completely imploded
> >
> > The Tories did control Norwich 1968 - 1970.
>
> And they hold Norwich South, but SIXTH?
North, Norwich south is Clive Lewis
Chloe Smith holds Nch Nth for the Tories (just)
> > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
> > > @justin124 said:
> > > > @dyedwoolie said:
> > > > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > > What might help the Tories is if Labour have a catastrophe aswell .
> > > > >
> > > > > Technically, but odds are if Labour are having a really bad night, the Tories will be having a disastrously bad night. It will be some solace if Labour are also well down, but if the Tories truly have held only 1 seat, nothing will mollify things for them. If the calculation of 10 were to happen, sure, but no one seems to believe that.
> > > > >
> > > > > If the Tories beat Labour in Norwich that hardly augurs well
> > > >
> > > > I can't see it, I think change are 4th, labour 5th, Tories 6th. If Tories are ahead in Norwich labour have completely imploded
> > >
> > > The Tories did control Norwich 1968 - 1970.
> >
> > And they hold Norwich South, but SIXTH?
>
> North, Norwich south is Clive Lewis
> Chloe Smith holds Nch Nth for the Tories (just)
Amendment gratefully accepted
> Gentleman Jack?
>
> What nonsense is this?
Titillating historical drama about lesbians is all the rage.
Snap!
Plus, what's he seeing counted? - postal votes or polling station votes? I suspect the results will be different for each.
It'll be interesting to see how closely the actiual Portsmouth results match this sample.
+++++++++++++++
Plus different boxes will have different results anyway. Some areas will be Remain friendly, others Leave.
Exit poll for La7
Lega 26-29
PD 21-24
5 Stars 20-23
Forza Italia 9-11
Brothers of Italy 5-7
+Europa 2.5-3.5
Exit poll for Rai
Lega 27-31
PD 21-25
5 Stars 18.5-22.5
Forza Italia 8-12
Brothers of Italy 5-7.5
+Europa 2.5-4.5
https://twitter.com/AmandaFBelfast/status/1132702759982194688
@Andrew_ComRes
Follow Follow @Andrew_ComRes
More
We can now publish postal votes from final @ComRes poll (before T May's speech) based on 20% of total voting sample:
BRX 34%
Lab 22%
Con 12%
LD 11%
CHUK 5%
Other (inc Grn) 12%
#EuropeanElectionResults
BXP - The establishment has been defeated, and we must leave with no deal
LDs - The establishment (not us, we promise) has been defeated, and we must remain
LAB - Look, don't blame us ok, we did better than the Tories at least
Con - *sobs quietly* leave me along, alright?
Green - even though we came behind another remain party, clearly we are the voice of the people
UKIP - When you think about it, BXP just copied us so we really came top
CUK - I am proud to be a member of the LDs.
> Jeremy Corbyn is 70 today (says the BBC). He is too old for this game.
>
>
Too thick is the bigger issue.
> Italy
>
> Exit poll for La7
>
> Lega 26-29
> PD 21-24
> 5 Stars 20-23
> Forza Italia 9-11
> Brothers of Italy 5-7
> +Europa
>
>
> Exit poll for Rai
>
> Lega 27-31
> PD 21-25
> 5 Stars 18.5-22.5
> Forza Italia 8-12
> Brothers of Italy 5-7.5
> +Europa 2.5-4.5
Great result from Lega. Probably slightly better than expected for PD. Disappointing for M5S.
Lib Dem 18706
Conservative 4863
Labour 5563
Green 4663
Change 2062
Sutton result
Gentleman Jack?
What nonsense is this?
...................................
Qui !?!?
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.157640026