I'm glad I only predicted national vote share, not seats - could be tight in a few places for some seats.
My thoughts on my predictions based on these anecdotal reports:
BXP - 32% - Probably about right, within a few percent either way. Labour - 17% - May be a bit high, LDs do look very promising for second LD - 15% - Seems low. probably pushing 20 CON - 10% - About as good as they can hope for, seems like they will be a bit lower Green - 9% - Undercut but LD revival? I think this one is still solid enough UKIP - 3% - Heard nothing, assuming might be worse CUK - 3% - Heard nothing, assuming even worse
> @bigjohnowls said: > > @Byronic said: > > > @bigjohnowls said: > > > Brex: 24 MEPs (+24 vs 2014) > > > LDem: 15 (+14) > > > Lab: 14 (-6) > > > Con: 10 (-9) > > > Grn: 4 (+1) > > > SNP: 2 (-) > > > PC: 1 (-) > > > > > > Britain Elects predicts< > > > > +++++ > > > > Britain Elects is Wrong. > > > > BTW, is there ANY result for Labour which would be SO bad you would reconsider your support for Corbyn as Leader? > > > > > > No its a protest vote. > > A GE means JIPM
Yeah, right whatever. I’m the next James Bond and you’re the next pope.
The LDs are doing a piss-poor job in terms of expectation management
To be fair, some of the people spinning good LD results are Conservatives.
We've had Timmo on here claiming the LDs have won Borough after Borough in London and then Harry Cole (hardly an unbiased contributor) claiming LD "sources" (i.e: some LD he knows) tell him the Party is going to do well.
Everyone plays this game - we've had Tories claiming they're going to get no seats at all.
What will the Conservatives extrapolate from this drubbing? I suspect they will read from this performance that the nation is demanding a full-frontal no-deal Brexit.
What will Corbyn extrapolate from this drubbing? Err.....
> @Jonathan said: > > @bigjohnowls said: > > > @Byronic said: > > > > @bigjohnowls said: > > > > Brex: 24 MEPs (+24 vs 2014) > > > > LDem: 15 (+14) > > > > Lab: 14 (-6) > > > > Con: 10 (-9) > > > > Grn: 4 (+1) > > > > SNP: 2 (-) > > > > PC: 1 (-) > > > > > > > > Britain Elects predicts< > > > > > > +++++ > > > > > > Britain Elects is Wrong. > > > > > > BTW, is there ANY result for Labour which would be SO bad you would reconsider your support for Corbyn as Leader? > > > > > > > > > > No its a protest vote. > > > > A GE means JIPM > > Yeah, right whatever. I’m the next James Bond and you’re the next pope.
I hate to rub it in - but you voted for him in 2017
> @kle4 said: > I'm glad I only predicted national vote share, not seats - could be tight in a few places for some seats. > > My thoughts on my predictions based on these anecdotal reports: > > BXP - 32% - Probably about right, within a few percent either way. > Labour - 17% - May be a bit high, LDs do look very promising for second > LD - 15% - Seems low. probably pushing 20 > CON - 10% - About as good as they can hope for, seems like they will be a bit lower > Green - 9% - Undercut but LD revival? I think this one is still solid enough > UKIP - 3% - Heard nothing, assuming might be worse > CUK - 3% - Heard nothing, assuming even worse<
++++
Sounds right. I might add a few points to the BXP.
Regarding CUK, who the hell thinks, "Oooh, that lovely man-of-the-people Chuka Umunna, and that charming, friendly Anna Soubry, they'll get my vote!"
Apart from Chuka and Anna's immediate relatives (and even there one wonders), I cannot think of a single reason to vote for Change UK. The obvious Remain vote is Lib Dems. Policywise they are indistinguishable from the CUKs.
The LDs are doing a piss-poor job in terms of expectation management
To be fair, some of the people spinning good LD results are Conservatives.
We've had Timmo on here claiming the LDs have won Borough after Borough in London and then Harry Cole (hardly an unbiased contributor) claiming LD "sources" (i.e: some LD he knows) tell him the Party is going to do well.
Everyone plays this game - we've had Tories claiming they're going to get no seats at all.
Indeed. The Tories are looking to do very bad as their expectations management has involved suggesting they will get 0. Of course, as with the locals it is possible to do as bad or worse than your expecations management sometimes, but they'll presumably grab a handful.
Labour did not do huge expectations management to my recollection in the run up to the vote, but they are tonight - at this rate they will claim coming above the Tories as the benchmark for success.
> @Byronic said: > > @kle4 said: > > I'm glad I only predicted national vote share, not seats - could be tight in a few places for some seats. > > > > My thoughts on my predictions based on these anecdotal reports: > > > > BXP - 32% - Probably about right, within a few percent either way. > > Labour - 17% - May be a bit high, LDs do look very promising for second > > LD - 15% - Seems low. probably pushing 20 > > CON - 10% - About as good as they can hope for, seems like they will be a bit lower > > Green - 9% - Undercut but LD revival? I think this one is still solid enough > > UKIP - 3% - Heard nothing, assuming might be worse > > CUK - 3% - Heard nothing, assuming even worse< > > ++++ > > Sounds right. I might add a few points to the BXP. > > Regarding CUK, who the hell thinks, "Oooh, that lovely man-of-the-people Chuka Umunna, and that charming, friendly Anna Soubry, they'll get my vote!" > > Apart from Chuka and Anna's immediate relatives (and even there one wonders), I cannot think of a single reason to vote for Change UK. The obvious Remain vote is Lib Dems. Policywise they indistinguishable from the CUKs. > >
My guess: BXP 28, LD 22, Lab 11, Con 9, Green 9, UKIP 5, CUK 5, others 11.
I wonder if the LDs could win the popular vote overall if there's a much higher turnout in the regions they win compared to the regions the Brexit Party wins.
> @brokenwheel said: > Regional winners (Ave it projection) > > London LD > SE LD > SW BXP > Wales LD > East Midlands BXP > West Midlands BXP > NW BXP > Yorkshire etc BXP > NE BXP > Scotland SLD > NI Sinn Fein > > I want what you're smoking.
@bigjohnowls when loyal Labour voters get the appetite for voting for other parties, it's going to be much harder to win them back. If the right wing vote is split, the danger of splitting the left vote becomes less.
> @Floater said: > > @Jonathan said: > > > @bigjohnowls said: > > > > @Byronic said: > > > > > @bigjohnowls said: > > > > > Brex: 24 MEPs (+24 vs 2014) > > > > > LDem: 15 (+14) > > > > > Lab: 14 (-6) > > > > > Con: 10 (-9) > > > > > Grn: 4 (+1) > > > > > SNP: 2 (-) > > > > > PC: 1 (-) > > > > > > > > > > Britain Elects predicts< > > > > > > > > +++++ > > > > > > > > Britain Elects is Wrong. > > > > > > > > BTW, is there ANY result for Labour which would be SO bad you would reconsider your support for Corbyn as Leader? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > No its a protest vote. > > > > > > A GE means JIPM > > > > Yeah, right whatever. I’m the next James Bond and you’re the next pope. > > I hate to rub it in - but you voted for him in 2017
Yeah, but clearly not happening twice!
The Labour humiliation may well be the nail in the coffin of Lexitism, but perhaps also Corbynism.
Sounds right. I might add a few points to the BXP.
Regarding CUK, who the hell thinks, "Oooh, that lovely man-of-the-people Chuka Umunna, and that charming, friendly Anna Soubry, they'll get my vote!"
Apart from Chuka and Anna's immediate relatives (and even there one wonders), I cannot think of a single reason to vote for Change UK. The obvious Remain vote is Lib Dems. Policywise they are indistinguishable from the CUKs.
Someone at work admitted to voting for the Chuka and Heidi Party the other day, so they do exist. From what I could work out they don't like the Lib Dems and think the Greens are nuts.
> @NickPalmer said: > > @Byronic said: > > > @kle4 said: > > > I'm glad I only predicted national vote share, not seats - could be tight in a few places for some seats. > > > > > > My thoughts on my predictions based on these anecdotal reports: > > > > > > BXP - 32% - Probably about right, within a few percent either way. > > > Labour - 17% - May be a bit high, LDs do look very promising for second > > > LD - 15% - Seems low. probably pushing 20 > > > CON - 10% - About as good as they can hope for, seems like they will be a bit lower > > > Green - 9% - Undercut but LD revival? I think this one is still solid enough > > > UKIP - 3% - Heard nothing, assuming might be worse > > > CUK - 3% - Heard nothing, assuming even worse< > > > > ++++ > > > > Sounds right. I might add a few points to the BXP. > > > > Regarding CUK, who the hell thinks, "Oooh, that lovely man-of-the-people Chuka Umunna, and that charming, friendly Anna Soubry, they'll get my vote!" > > > > Apart from Chuka and Anna's immediate relatives (and even there one wonders), I cannot think of a single reason to vote for Change UK. The obvious Remain vote is Lib Dems. Policywise they indistinguishable from the CUKs. > > > > > > My guess: > BXP 28, LD 22, Lab 11, Con 9, Green 9, UKIP 5, CUK 5, others 11. >
There we go folks, an ex-Lab MP who thinks the party will get its worse vote share in a national election since universal suffrage
> @isam said: > . > @Sean_F said: > > > > @not_on_fire said: > > > > https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1132737533018816515 > > > > > > > > If they've won 10-17 seats, they should be quite a way behind the Brexit Party in terms of vote share. > > > > TBP has to beat LD+GRN+CUK in terms of votes to claim any bragging rights > > Can we have UKIP on our side?
> @Floater said: > > @Jonathan said: > > > @bigjohnowls said: > > > > @Byronic said: > > > > > @bigjohnowls said: > > > > > Brex: 24 MEPs (+24 vs 2014) > > > > > LDem: 15 (+14) > > > > > Lab: 14 (-6) > > > > > Con: 10 (-9) > > > > > Grn: 4 (+1) > > > > > SNP: 2 (-) > > > > > PC: 1 (-) > > > > > > > > > > Britain Elects predicts< > > > > > > > > +++++ > > > > > > > > Britain Elects is Wrong. > > > > > > > > BTW, is there ANY result for Labour which would be SO bad you would reconsider your support for Corbyn as Leader? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > No its a protest vote. > > > > > > A GE means JIPM > > > > Yeah, right whatever. I’m the next James Bond and you’re the next pope. > > I hate to rub it in - but you voted for him in 2017
> > > > > > > My guess: > > BXP 28, LD 22, Lab 11, Con 9, Green 9, UKIP 5, CUK 5, others 11. > > > > There we go folks, an ex-Lab MP who thinks the party will get its worse vote share in a national election since universal suffrage<
> @Mexicanpete said: > What will the Conservatives extrapolate from this drubbing? I suspect they will read from this performance that the nation is demanding a full-frontal no-deal Brexit. > > What will Corbyn extrapolate from this drubbing? Err.....
And for their own electoral future, they'll both be right. The wings of either party which disagree need to get in the boat and row, or get out completely because electoral cleavages have moved.
> @AndyJS said: > I wonder if the LDs could win the popular vote overall if there's a much higher turnout in the regions they win compared to the regions the Brexit Party wins.
> @IanB2 said: > The fact that we (broadly) have PR and yet forecasts for Tory seats range from 1 to 10 illustrates what a polling disaster this has been.
If the Conservatives get 12% they might get 10 seats. If they get 9% they might get one seat.
The polling problems are more at the top end of the table.
> @IanB2 said: > The fact that we (broadly) have PR and yet forecasts for Tory seats range from 1 to 10 illustrates what a polling disaster this has been.
That's also a function of the way that this version of PR has been implemented.
> @Gallowgate said: > @bigjohnowls when loyal Labour voters get the appetite for voting for other parties, it's going to be much harder to win them back. If the right wing vote is split, the danger of splitting the left vote becomes less. > > JCMNBPM
Sounds right. I might add a few points to the BXP. Regarding CUK, who the hell thinks, "Oooh, that lovely man-of-the-people Chuka Umunna, and that charming, friendly Anna Soubry, they'll get my vote!" Apart from Chuka and Anna's immediate relatives (and even there one wonders), I cannot think of a single reason to vote for Change UK. The obvious Remain vote is Lib Dems. Policywise they are indistinguishable from the CUKs.
Someone at work admitted to voting for the Chuka and Heidi Party the other day, so they do exist. From what I could work out they don't like the Lib Dems and think the Greens are nuts.
> @Foxy said: > > @AndyJS said: > > I wonder if the LDs could win the popular vote overall if there's a much higher turnout in the regions they win compared to the regions the Brexit Party wins. > > Yes please, at 130/1
I wanted to bet on them getting most votes but Betfair only had most seats as an option.
> @bigjohnowls said: > > @Gallowgate said: > > @bigjohnowls when loyal Labour voters get the appetite for voting for other parties, it's going to be much harder to win them back. If the right wing vote is split, the danger of splitting the left vote becomes less. > > > > JCMNBPM > > Your M is upside down surely
What might help the Tories is if Labour have a catastrophe aswell .
Technically, but odds are if Labour are having a really bad night, the Tories will be having a disastrously bad night. It will be some solace if Labour are also well down, but if the Tories truly have held only 1 seat, nothing will mollify things for them. If the calculation of 10 were to happen, sure, but no one seems to believe that.
Still £599 available on LDs coming top on the "without BXP" Betfair market - that's £120 to earn in half an hour. DYOR but it seems quite mad not to take it (I don't bet against my party or I'd snap it up.)
> @AndyJS said: > I wonder if the LDs could win the popular vote overall if there's a much higher turnout in the regions they win compared to the regions the Brexit Party wins.
If TBP and the Lib Dems really are neck and neck in OxWab I doubt it.
What might help the Tories is if Labour have a catastrophe aswell .
Technically, but odds are if Labour are having a really bad night, the Tories will be having a disastrously bad night. It will be some solace if Labour are also well down, but if the Tories truly have held only 1 seat, nothing will mollify things for them. If the calculation of 10 were to happen, sure, but no one seems to believe that.
If the Tories beat Labour in Norwich that hardly augurs well
> @Jonathan said: > > @bigjohnowls said: > > > @Byronic said: > > > > @bigjohnowls said: > > > > Brex: 24 MEPs (+24 vs 2014) > > > > LDem: 15 (+14) > > > > Lab: 14 (-6) > > > > Con: 10 (-9) > > > > Grn: 4 (+1) > > > > SNP: 2 (-) > > > > PC: 1 (-) > > > > > > > > Britain Elects predicts< > > > > > > +++++ > > > > > > Britain Elects is Wrong. > > > > > > BTW, is there ANY result for Labour which would be SO bad you would reconsider your support for Corbyn as Leader? > > > > > > > > > > No its a protest vote. > > > > A GE means JIPM > > Yeah, right whatever. I’m the next James Bond and you’re the next pope.
Your names Bond James Bond?
How far were you out re Corbyns 40% in 2017 remind me?
> @Sean_F said: > > @AndyJS said: > > I wonder if the LDs could win the popular vote overall if there's a much higher turnout in the regions they win compared to the regions the Brexit Party wins. > > If TBP and the Lib Dems really are neck and neck in OxWab I doubt it.
The LDs are doing a piss-poor job in terms of expectation management
To be fair, some of the people spinning good LD results are Conservatives.
We've had Timmo on here claiming the LDs have won Borough after Borough in London and then Harry Cole (hardly an unbiased contributor) claiming LD "sources" (i.e: some LD he knows) tell him the Party is going to do well.
Everyone plays this game - we've had Tories claiming they're going to get no seats at all.
We will see wont we... I will obv accept an apology when you are proven wrong.
What might help the Tories is if Labour have a catastrophe aswell .
Technically, but odds are if Labour are having a really bad night, the Tories will be having a disastrously bad night. It will be some solace if Labour are also well down, but if the Tories truly have held only 1 seat, nothing will mollify things for them. If the calculation of 10 were to happen, sure, but no one seems to believe that.
If the Tories beat Labour in Norwich that hardly augurs well
Won't cover up their demise being worse overall. They won seats in the north in the locals, or held up ok, it didn't mean their losing over 1000 seats less of a gut punch. If they had held out a bit better Labour's performance would seem more like sharing in disaster, as it is it was the Tories in disaster, Labour pretty bad.
I expect that will be the story again here - both punished, but one more than the other.
Labour also have a path to recovery of sorts - go Remain, full on. The Tories can recover somewhat bu going no deal, but it doesn't solve their problems.
> @Foxy said: > > @Floater said: > > > @M.Partridge said: > > > Odds on Corbyn resigning after the results tonight? > > > > Zero - next question :-) > > Though a challenge is quite possible, after all, not much else happening over the next 6 weeks.
True - it's not like the parties have something really important to think about other than themselves....... :-)
> @bigjohnowls said: > > @Jonathan said: > > > @bigjohnowls said: > > > > @Byronic said: > > > > > @bigjohnowls said: > > > > > Brex: 24 MEPs (+24 vs 2014) > > > > > LDem: 15 (+14) > > > > > Lab: 14 (-6) > > > > > Con: 10 (-9) > > > > > Grn: 4 (+1) > > > > > SNP: 2 (-) > > > > > PC: 1 (-) > > > > > > > > > > Britain Elects predicts< > > > > > > > > +++++ > > > > > > > > Britain Elects is Wrong. > > > > > > > > BTW, is there ANY result for Labour which would be SO bad you would reconsider your support for Corbyn as Leader? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > No its a protest vote. > > > > > > A GE means JIPM > > > > Yeah, right whatever. I’m the next James Bond and you’re the next pope. > > Your names Bond James Bond? > > How far were you out re Corbyns 40% in 2017 remind me?
I was less far out than Corbyn is now. I am astonished at how far your man has screwed this up. It’s impressive even by his dire standards.
> @IanB2 said: > What might help the Tories is if Labour have a catastrophe aswell . > > Technically, but odds are if Labour are having a really bad night, the Tories will be having a disastrously bad night. It will be some solace if Labour are also well down, but if the Tories truly have held only 1 seat, nothing will mollify things for them. If the calculation of 10 were to happen, sure, but no one seems to believe that. > > If the Tories beat Labour in Norwich that hardly augurs well
I can't see it, I think change are 4th, labour 5th, Tories 6th. If Tories are ahead in Norwich labour have completely imploded
Sky News are showing the Leave Vote / Change in turnout chart to kill time. No credit given on screen to whoever it was that first came up with the correlation though.
Looks like main left and right blocs will not be able to form a grand coalition in EP for first time. Liberal group could be a part of it now. Or maybe the various left groups or right groups can cobble a majority with the Liberals.
Probably closer to 5-2 at the moment you have a top bet which might come in! > @AndyJS said: > I put £20 on the LDs winning most seats at 50/1. Don't expect to win but you never know.
> @Mauve said: > Sky News are showing the Leave Vote / Change in turnout chart to kill time. No credit given on screen to whoever it was that first came up with the correlation though.
> @TheWhiteRabbit said: > > @M.Partridge said: > > Odds on Corbyn resigning after the results tonight? > > I'll give you 25/1 Corbyn to resign within a week
> @M.Partridge said: > > @TheWhiteRabbit said: > > > @M.Partridge said: > > > Odds on Corbyn resigning after the results tonight? > > > > I'll give you 25/1 Corbyn to resign within a week > > I'll take this
> @AndyJS said: > I put £20 on the LDs winning most seats at 50/1. Don't expect to win but you never know.
Given they're likely to be winning in the high turn-out regions, it's fair to assume their vote efficiency will be pretty poor. So for that bet to win, they'd need a comfortable win on headline vote share too.
Comments
My thoughts on my predictions based on these anecdotal reports:
BXP - 32% - Probably about right, within a few percent either way.
Labour - 17% - May be a bit high, LDs do look very promising for second
LD - 15% - Seems low. probably pushing 20
CON - 10% - About as good as they can hope for, seems like they will be a bit lower
Green - 9% - Undercut but LD revival? I think this one is still solid enough
UKIP - 3% - Heard nothing, assuming might be worse
CUK - 3% - Heard nothing, assuming even worse
"who's on the bbc team tonight - Emily Maitless ? Dimbleby?"
...............................................................................
Huw Edwards and Reeta Chakrabarti
> > @Byronic said:
> > > @bigjohnowls said:
> > > Brex: 24 MEPs (+24 vs 2014)
> > > LDem: 15 (+14)
> > > Lab: 14 (-6)
> > > Con: 10 (-9)
> > > Grn: 4 (+1)
> > > SNP: 2 (-)
> > > PC: 1 (-)
> > >
> > > Britain Elects predicts<
> >
> > +++++
> >
> > Britain Elects is Wrong.
> >
> > BTW, is there ANY result for Labour which would be SO bad you would reconsider your support for Corbyn as Leader?
> >
> >
>
> No its a protest vote.
>
> A GE means JIPM
Yeah, right whatever. I’m the next James Bond and you’re the next pope.
Keir Starmer must be seriously pissed off.
> Is there an "exit poll" for the UK coming up at 10pm?
For the first time, no. They decided it was too expensive.
We've had Timmo on here claiming the LDs have won Borough after Borough in London and then Harry Cole (hardly an unbiased contributor) claiming LD "sources" (i.e: some LD he knows) tell him the Party is going to do well.
Everyone plays this game - we've had Tories claiming they're going to get no seats at all.
> https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1132738245836574720
>
>
>
> Their card has been Marked.
>
> Recovery is not Drakeforward.
>
> People are Baying for them.
>
> Should I go on?
It cannot come soon enough
> What are the facts that have changed your mind since Friday? Genuine question.
+++++++++++++++++++++++
The reports from the polling stations in London indicating that the LDs are outpolling Labour for one.
What will Corbyn extrapolate from this drubbing? Err.....
> https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1132736081596690432
I said this earlier today.
> > @bigjohnowls said:
> > > @Byronic said:
> > > > @bigjohnowls said:
> > > > Brex: 24 MEPs (+24 vs 2014)
> > > > LDem: 15 (+14)
> > > > Lab: 14 (-6)
> > > > Con: 10 (-9)
> > > > Grn: 4 (+1)
> > > > SNP: 2 (-)
> > > > PC: 1 (-)
> > > >
> > > > Britain Elects predicts<
> > >
> > > +++++
> > >
> > > Britain Elects is Wrong.
> > >
> > > BTW, is there ANY result for Labour which would be SO bad you would reconsider your support for Corbyn as Leader?
> > >
> > >
> >
> > No its a protest vote.
> >
> > A GE means JIPM
>
> Yeah, right whatever. I’m the next James Bond and you’re the next pope.
I hate to rub it in - but you voted for him in 2017
> Regional winners (Ave it projection)
>
> London LD
> SE LD
> SW BXP
> Wales LD
> East Midlands BXP
> West Midlands BXP
> NW BXP
> Yorkshire etc BXP
> NE BXP
> Scotland SLD
> NI Sinn Fein
+++++++++
BXP will win Wales easily.
> I'm glad I only predicted national vote share, not seats - could be tight in a few places for some seats.
>
> My thoughts on my predictions based on these anecdotal reports:
>
> BXP - 32% - Probably about right, within a few percent either way.
> Labour - 17% - May be a bit high, LDs do look very promising for second
> LD - 15% - Seems low. probably pushing 20
> CON - 10% - About as good as they can hope for, seems like they will be a bit lower
> Green - 9% - Undercut but LD revival? I think this one is still solid enough
> UKIP - 3% - Heard nothing, assuming might be worse
> CUK - 3% - Heard nothing, assuming even worse<
++++
Sounds right. I might add a few points to the BXP.
Regarding CUK, who the hell thinks, "Oooh, that lovely man-of-the-people Chuka Umunna, and that charming, friendly Anna Soubry, they'll get my vote!"
Apart from Chuka and Anna's immediate relatives (and even there one wonders), I cannot think of a single reason to vote for Change UK. The obvious Remain vote is Lib Dems. Policywise they are indistinguishable from the CUKs.
Labour did not do huge expectations management to my recollection in the run up to the vote, but they are tonight - at this rate they will claim coming above the Tories as the benchmark for success.
> > @bigjohnowls said:
>
> > > @Ave_it said:
>
> > > AVE IT final forecast!
>
> > >
>
> > > BXP 37%
>
> > > LD 32%
>
> > > GRN 8%
>
> > > LAB 8%
>
> > > CON 6%
>
> > > OTH 9%
>
> >
>
> > Knock 14% off LDs
>
> >
>
> > Knock 5% off BXP
>
> >
>
> > Double Lab and Con
>
> >
>
> > and you are spot on
>
>
>
> I think that's almost exactly right, except I think the LDs'll make 20%, while the Cons will struggle to get to 16%.
>
> @rcs1000, it's only two days ago you were saying LDs would come 4th:
>
> Brexit 31%.
> Labour 20%.
> Conservative16%.
> LibDem 16%
> Green 7%
> UKIP 4%
> CUK 1%
> Nats 5%.
I was predicting LDs in equal third on 16 and now i am saying 18% after seeing turnout.
MOE!!
> > @kle4 said:
> > I'm glad I only predicted national vote share, not seats - could be tight in a few places for some seats.
> >
> > My thoughts on my predictions based on these anecdotal reports:
> >
> > BXP - 32% - Probably about right, within a few percent either way.
> > Labour - 17% - May be a bit high, LDs do look very promising for second
> > LD - 15% - Seems low. probably pushing 20
> > CON - 10% - About as good as they can hope for, seems like they will be a bit lower
> > Green - 9% - Undercut but LD revival? I think this one is still solid enough
> > UKIP - 3% - Heard nothing, assuming might be worse
> > CUK - 3% - Heard nothing, assuming even worse<
>
> ++++
>
> Sounds right. I might add a few points to the BXP.
>
> Regarding CUK, who the hell thinks, "Oooh, that lovely man-of-the-people Chuka Umunna, and that charming, friendly Anna Soubry, they'll get my vote!"
>
> Apart from Chuka and Anna's immediate relatives (and even there one wonders), I cannot think of a single reason to vote for Change UK. The obvious Remain vote is Lib Dems. Policywise they indistinguishable from the CUKs.
>
>
My guess:
BXP 28, LD 22, Lab 11, Con 9, Green 9, UKIP 5, CUK 5, others 11.
> Regional winners (Ave it projection)
>
> London LD
> SE LD
> SW BXP
> Wales LD
> East Midlands BXP
> West Midlands BXP
> NW BXP
> Yorkshire etc BXP
> NE BXP
> Scotland SLD
> NI Sinn Fein
>
> I want what you're smoking.
Wales BXP
JCMNBPM
> > @Jonathan said:
> > > @bigjohnowls said:
> > > > @Byronic said:
> > > > > @bigjohnowls said:
> > > > > Brex: 24 MEPs (+24 vs 2014)
> > > > > LDem: 15 (+14)
> > > > > Lab: 14 (-6)
> > > > > Con: 10 (-9)
> > > > > Grn: 4 (+1)
> > > > > SNP: 2 (-)
> > > > > PC: 1 (-)
> > > > >
> > > > > Britain Elects predicts<
> > > >
> > > > +++++
> > > >
> > > > Britain Elects is Wrong.
> > > >
> > > > BTW, is there ANY result for Labour which would be SO bad you would reconsider your support for Corbyn as Leader?
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > No its a protest vote.
> > >
> > > A GE means JIPM
> >
> > Yeah, right whatever. I’m the next James Bond and you’re the next pope.
>
> I hate to rub it in - but you voted for him in 2017
Yeah, but clearly not happening twice!
The Labour humiliation may well be the nail in the coffin of Lexitism, but perhaps also Corbynism.
> > @Byronic said:
> > > @kle4 said:
> > > I'm glad I only predicted national vote share, not seats - could be tight in a few places for some seats.
> > >
> > > My thoughts on my predictions based on these anecdotal reports:
> > >
> > > BXP - 32% - Probably about right, within a few percent either way.
> > > Labour - 17% - May be a bit high, LDs do look very promising for second
> > > LD - 15% - Seems low. probably pushing 20
> > > CON - 10% - About as good as they can hope for, seems like they will be a bit lower
> > > Green - 9% - Undercut but LD revival? I think this one is still solid enough
> > > UKIP - 3% - Heard nothing, assuming might be worse
> > > CUK - 3% - Heard nothing, assuming even worse<
> >
> > ++++
> >
> > Sounds right. I might add a few points to the BXP.
> >
> > Regarding CUK, who the hell thinks, "Oooh, that lovely man-of-the-people Chuka Umunna, and that charming, friendly Anna Soubry, they'll get my vote!"
> >
> > Apart from Chuka and Anna's immediate relatives (and even there one wonders), I cannot think of a single reason to vote for Change UK. The obvious Remain vote is Lib Dems. Policywise they indistinguishable from the CUKs.
> >
> >
>
> My guess:
> BXP 28, LD 22, Lab 11, Con 9, Green 9, UKIP 5, CUK 5, others 11.
>
There we go folks, an ex-Lab MP who thinks the party will get its worse vote share in a national election since universal suffrage
> . > @Sean_F said:
>
> > > @not_on_fire said:
>
> > > https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1132737533018816515
>
>
>
> >
>
> > If they've won 10-17 seats, they should be quite a way behind the Brexit Party in terms of vote share.
>
>
>
> TBP has to beat LD+GRN+CUK in terms of votes to claim any bragging rights
>
> Can we have UKIP on our side?
With the greatest of pleasure
> > @Jonathan said:
> > > @bigjohnowls said:
> > > > @Byronic said:
> > > > > @bigjohnowls said:
> > > > > Brex: 24 MEPs (+24 vs 2014)
> > > > > LDem: 15 (+14)
> > > > > Lab: 14 (-6)
> > > > > Con: 10 (-9)
> > > > > Grn: 4 (+1)
> > > > > SNP: 2 (-)
> > > > > PC: 1 (-)
> > > > >
> > > > > Britain Elects predicts<
> > > >
> > > > +++++
> > > >
> > > > Britain Elects is Wrong.
> > > >
> > > > BTW, is there ANY result for Labour which would be SO bad you would reconsider your support for Corbyn as Leader?
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > No its a protest vote.
> > >
> > > A GE means JIPM
> >
> > Yeah, right whatever. I’m the next James Bond and you’re the next pope.
>
> I hate to rub it in - but you voted for him in 2017
Did I?
> > >
> >
> > My guess:
> > BXP 28, LD 22, Lab 11, Con 9, Green 9, UKIP 5, CUK 5, others 11.
> >
>
> There we go folks, an ex-Lab MP who thinks the party will get its worse vote share in a national election since universal suffrage<
++++
And still supports Jeremy Corbyn....
> Lib Dems apparently trouncing Labour and the Tories in Barnet.
Oy veh!
> What will the Conservatives extrapolate from this drubbing? I suspect they will read from this performance that the nation is demanding a full-frontal no-deal Brexit.
>
> What will Corbyn extrapolate from this drubbing? Err.....
And for their own electoral future, they'll both be right. The wings of either party which disagree need to get in the boat and row, or get out completely because electoral cleavages have moved.
> who's on the bbc team tonight - Emily Maitless ? Dimbleby?
Dimbleby has retired sadly.
> I wonder if the LDs could win the popular vote overall if there's a much higher turnout in the regions they win compared to the regions the Brexit Party wins.
Yes please, at 130/1
> The fact that we (broadly) have PR and yet forecasts for Tory seats range from 1 to 10 illustrates what a polling disaster this has been.
If the Conservatives get 12% they might get 10 seats. If they get 9% they might get one seat.
The polling problems are more at the top end of the table.
> > @state_go_away said:
> > who's on the bbc team tonight - Emily Maitless ? Dimbleby?
>
> Dimbleby has retired sadly.
He should have done that a long time ago. No-one should cling on that long
> The fact that we (broadly) have PR and yet forecasts for Tory seats range from 1 to 10 illustrates what a polling disaster this has been.
That's also a function of the way that this version of PR has been implemented.
> @bigjohnowls when loyal Labour voters get the appetite for voting for other parties, it's going to be much harder to win them back. If the right wing vote is split, the danger of splitting the left vote becomes less.
>
> JCMNBPM
Your M is upside down surely
> > @nico67 said:
> > Lib Dems apparently trouncing Labour and the Tories in Barnet.
>
> Oy veh!
Don't tell Jenny Tonge or David Ward...
> > @Floater said:
> > > @Jonathan said:
> > > > @bigjohnowls said:
> > > > > @Byronic said:
> > > > > > @bigjohnowls said:
> > > > > > Brex: 24 MEPs (+24 vs 2014)
> > > > > > LDem: 15 (+14)
> > > > > > Lab: 14 (-6)
> > > > > > Con: 10 (-9)
> > > > > > Grn: 4 (+1)
> > > > > > SNP: 2 (-)
> > > > > > PC: 1 (-)
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Britain Elects predicts<
> > > > >
> > > > > +++++
> > > > >
> > > > > Britain Elects is Wrong.
> > > > >
> > > > > BTW, is there ANY result for Labour which would be SO bad you would reconsider your support for Corbyn as Leader?
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > No its a protest vote.
> > > >
> > > > A GE means JIPM
> > >
> > > Yeah, right whatever. I’m the next James Bond and you’re the next pope.
> >
> > I hate to rub it in - but you voted for him in 2017
>
> Did I?
Well, you said you went in the booth and voted Labour - I don't think I am confusing you with someone else.
(* Aside from TBP winning most votes/seats, I guess)
> Odds on Corbyn resigning after the results tonight?
Zero - next question :-)
> What might help the Tories is if Labour have a catastrophe aswell .
>
>
If?
> Odds on Corbyn resigning after the results tonight?
I'll give you 25/1 Corbyn to resign within a week
> Odds on Corbyn resigning after the results tonight?
Lol. No.
> > @AndyJS said:
> > I wonder if the LDs could win the popular vote overall if there's a much higher turnout in the regions they win compared to the regions the Brexit Party wins.
>
> Yes please, at 130/1
I wanted to bet on them getting most votes but Betfair only had most seats as an option.
> > @Gallowgate said:
> > @bigjohnowls when loyal Labour voters get the appetite for voting for other parties, it's going to be much harder to win them back. If the right wing vote is split, the danger of splitting the left vote becomes less.
> >
> > JCMNBPM
>
> Your M is upside down surely
Must?
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.158989602
> I wonder if the LDs could win the popular vote overall if there's a much higher turnout in the regions they win compared to the regions the Brexit Party wins.
If TBP and the Lib Dems really are neck and neck in OxWab I doubt it.
> Lib Dems apparently trouncing Labour and the Tories in Barnet.
Wow.
> > @bigjohnowls said:
> > > @Byronic said:
> > > > @bigjohnowls said:
> > > > Brex: 24 MEPs (+24 vs 2014)
> > > > LDem: 15 (+14)
> > > > Lab: 14 (-6)
> > > > Con: 10 (-9)
> > > > Grn: 4 (+1)
> > > > SNP: 2 (-)
> > > > PC: 1 (-)
> > > >
> > > > Britain Elects predicts<
> > >
> > > +++++
> > >
> > > Britain Elects is Wrong.
> > >
> > > BTW, is there ANY result for Labour which would be SO bad you would reconsider your support for Corbyn as Leader?
> > >
> > >
> >
> > No its a protest vote.
> >
> > A GE means JIPM
>
> Yeah, right whatever. I’m the next James Bond and you’re the next pope.
Your names Bond James Bond?
How far were you out re Corbyns 40% in 2017 remind me?
> > @AndyJS said:
> > I wonder if the LDs could win the popular vote overall if there's a much higher turnout in the regions they win compared to the regions the Brexit Party wins.
>
> If TBP and the Lib Dems really are neck and neck in OxWab I doubt it.
I don't believe that report to be honest.
> > @M.Partridge said:
> > Odds on Corbyn resigning after the results tonight?
>
> Zero - next question :-)
Though a challenge is quite possible, after all, not much else happening over the next 6 weeks.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1132623971139112960?s=20
I will obv accept an apology when you are proven wrong.
That makes me officially the most geeky person on here.
> Still £599 available on LDs coming top on the "without BXP" Betfair market - that's £120 to earn in half an hour. DYOR but it seems quite mad not to take it (I don't bet against my party or I'd snap it up.)
>
> https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.158989602
Gone now.
I expect that will be the story again here - both punished, but one more than the other.
Labour also have a path to recovery of sorts - go Remain, full on. The Tories can recover somewhat bu going no deal, but it doesn't solve their problems.
> > @Floater said:
> > > @M.Partridge said:
> > > Odds on Corbyn resigning after the results tonight?
> >
> > Zero - next question :-)
>
> Though a challenge is quite possible, after all, not much else happening over the next 6 weeks.
True - it's not like the parties have something really important to think about other than themselves....... :-)
> > @Jonathan said:
> > > @bigjohnowls said:
> > > > @Byronic said:
> > > > > @bigjohnowls said:
> > > > > Brex: 24 MEPs (+24 vs 2014)
> > > > > LDem: 15 (+14)
> > > > > Lab: 14 (-6)
> > > > > Con: 10 (-9)
> > > > > Grn: 4 (+1)
> > > > > SNP: 2 (-)
> > > > > PC: 1 (-)
> > > > >
> > > > > Britain Elects predicts<
> > > >
> > > > +++++
> > > >
> > > > Britain Elects is Wrong.
> > > >
> > > > BTW, is there ANY result for Labour which would be SO bad you would reconsider your support for Corbyn as Leader?
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > No its a protest vote.
> > >
> > > A GE means JIPM
> >
> > Yeah, right whatever. I’m the next James Bond and you’re the next pope.
>
> Your names Bond James Bond?
>
> How far were you out re Corbyns 40% in 2017 remind me?
I was less far out than Corbyn is now. I am astonished at how far your man has screwed this up. It’s impressive even by his dire standards.
https://mobile.twitter.com/JamesEnders/status/1132729446472081409
> What might help the Tories is if Labour have a catastrophe aswell .
>
> Technically, but odds are if Labour are having a really bad night, the Tories will be having a disastrously bad night. It will be some solace if Labour are also well down, but if the Tories truly have held only 1 seat, nothing will mollify things for them. If the calculation of 10 were to happen, sure, but no one seems to believe that.
>
> If the Tories beat Labour in Norwich that hardly augurs well
I can't see it, I think change are 4th, labour 5th, Tories 6th. If Tories are ahead in Norwich labour have completely imploded
> https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1132746074895077377
Tsk, another criminal.
> @AndyJS said:
> I put £20 on the LDs winning most seats at 50/1. Don't expect to win but you never know.
> I just read PB on the Oculus Quest browser.
>
> That makes me officially the most geeky person on here.
You need a VR bar chart.
> I just read PB on the Oculus Quest browser.
>
> That makes me officially the most geeky person on here.
> @rcs1000 said:
> I just read PB on the Oculus Quest browser.
>
> That makes me officially the most geeky person on here.
Can we find you some sort of VR swingometer?
> I just read PB on the Oculus Quest browser.
>
> That makes me officially the most geeky person on here.
Are we all going to need one to use the new commenting system (if we get one)?
> Sky News are showing the Leave Vote / Change in turnout chart to kill time. No credit given on screen to whoever it was that first came up with the correlation though.
Multiple people could have done the job.
Bit like 1906!
> > @M.Partridge said:
> > Odds on Corbyn resigning after the results tonight?
>
> I'll give you 25/1 Corbyn to resign within a week
I'll take this
> Do we know the dates for this poll?
>
> https://mobile.twitter.com/JamesEnders/status/1132729446472081409
Old:
https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-17th-may-2019/
> > @Gallowgate said:
> > https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1132746074895077377
>
> Tsk, another criminal.<
+++++
Christ.
> On a non-partisan note - if all the votes have been counted, why will they wait till the early hours to announce them?
I was hoping you might be able to answer that question, as a political insider.
> > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
> > > @M.Partridge said:
> > > Odds on Corbyn resigning after the results tonight?
> >
> > I'll give you 25/1 Corbyn to resign within a week
>
> I'll take this
You're on for a tenner.
> As we await the UK European election results here is President Trump at the Sumo wrestling in Japan today
>
> https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1132623971139112960?s=20
How disappointing. I thought you meant he was taking part.
> > @RobD said:
> > > @Gallowgate said:
> > > twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1132746074895077377
> >
> > Tsk, another criminal.<
>
> +++++
>
> Christ.
Tongue in cheek. Unless your comment was also tongue in cheek. In which case, carry on.
> > @Gallowgate said:
> > https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1132746074895077377
>
> Tsk, another criminal.
Goodness, maybe some of the polls even underestimated the Brexit Party as well as the LDs
> I put £20 on the LDs winning most seats at 50/1. Don't expect to win but you never know.
Given they're likely to be winning in the high turn-out regions, it's fair to assume their vote efficiency will be pretty poor. So for that bet to win, they'd need a comfortable win on headline vote share too.
Best of luck.