> @another_richard said: > > @Sandpit said: > > > > The VED is like stamp duty though, it’s an amount that needs to be found in cash on the day of the transaction - as opposed to the VAT that gets lost in the finance agreement. It’s a significant factor in affordability of the deal as a whole. > > If the buyer can't afford the VED then they can't afford the vehicle. > > We should not be encouraging excessive personal debt.
The solution is to tighten the credit rules, which is what the Bank of England did. If buyers do not have the cash for the VED they can go to wonga or family or spend the rent on it. If the loan company says no, that is it. It is no.
The house rises on 20th July so if the winner isn't announced until 21st July there won't be a sitting Parliament to call a VONC.
However when the House returns on 5th September its possible the first and only act of that sitting will be to dissolve Parliament for a 3rd October general election?
> @Quincel said: > It is weird that the odds on TBP vote share have changed to lower expectations, but the odds on them winning haven't budged even 0.01 on Betfair. You don't have to think they aren't favourites to think they aren't quite as strong favourites now.
Not really, because they'll probably still win easily with 27% as opposed to 32% or 37%.
> @isam said: > > @isam said: > > > There has to be a fair chance the LDs have won? If we hadn't seen any opinion polls, just the turnouts, they'd prob be favs > > > > > > https://twitter.com/JChristy93/status/1131928075871162369 > > > > > > Is there any way of working out what, if any, differential turnout the polls expected? But depending on what you mean 'fair chance' I'm not convinced. Turnout doesn't tell us who the people are voting for, I'd rather be the pollsters with a sample telling us who they intend to vote for. All we know is areas, not who in the areas of how. > > > > I'm satisfied with the 1/33 I laid against TBP last night, but I don't think it was an amazing bet. > > > > (Being facetious, if we hadn't seen ANY polls and say a remain surge I wonder if we'd think Change UK were connecting? If it wasn't for polling we might not be expecting a LD surge at all - apart from the Locals I guess.) > > The facetious comment is probably quite right! > > Actually, the people I’m looking at on twitter are saying that if BXP are getting 85-90% of Leave votes, then they win with 35%ish of the vote, and the fact that turnout is down in Leave areas (or not up as much as in Remain) is no biggie
If TBP were getting 85-90% of the leave vote and around 35% of the total the Tories would probably be under 5%. Not going to happen. I think that the leave vote will be more like 40-45% of which they will get 75% putting them around 30% overall.
It would be so ironic if the Lib Dems out vote TBP
Indeed I think it is possible remain will win the vote count quite easily
The grand total of six party signs I saw in my part of north Dorset this week were: 1 for BP, 2 for LD and 3 signs for the Green Party. That's in an area that was strongly Leave in 2016.
Could it be that Leave voters have just had enough?
North Dorset?
Thinks.
A bus is a big long taxi, rather like a long lorry with windows cut out. It stops at certain places and people get on and off as required....
> I just received this from Betfair and am posting it as a public service. Caveat emptor and all that. I have put more on but don't dare go mad just in case there is another twist in the flailing.
>
>
>
> Hi xxx
>
>
>
> Thanks for getting in touch.
>
>
>
> Apologies for the trouble xxx. The matter has been raised to the traders and they have informed us that the market will be settled on the 7th of June once the resignation is officially done. Kindly note that our traders are the ones that have the final say on such matters as the customer service team is simply the one that is forwarding communication to the necessary teams and assisting clients with day to day issues.
>
> “The market will be settled on 7th June”
>
> Really?
>
> With every statement they make, the hole they are digging themselves gets deeper.
> (Their lawyers are probably going to regret using non-native English speakers in customer service roles).
Agreed. I thought it was bizarre that the person I originally spoke to didn't really make any sense.
This email comes from a person called Nigel though and they have obviously had a chance to think about it. I presume similar emails have been sent out to other people who perhaps may not have read them yet.
This is free money at 3.5 if what you are saying is correct.. why arent you having it?
> Actually, the people I’m looking at on twitter are saying that if BXP are getting 85-90% of Leave votes, then they win with 35%ish of the vote, and the fact that turnout is down in Leave areas (or not up as much as in Remain) is no biggie
If TBP were getting 85-90% of the leave vote and around 35% of the total the Tories would probably be under 5%. Not going to happen. I think that the leave vote will be more like 40-45% of which they will get 75% putting them around 30% overall.
They say YouGov had BXP getting that % of Leave vote
> @williamglenn said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @another_richard said: > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > It would be so ironic if the Lib Dems out vote TBP > > > > > > > > Indeed I think it is possible remain will win the vote count quite easily > > > > > > It would be good to see the ERG meltdown. > > > > I would be very pleased to see that > > It would be a truly massive polling failure too.
Well we've just had a couple of those in the Netherlands, and Australia to a degree.
It would be so ironic if the Lib Dems out vote TBP
Indeed I think it is possible remain will win the vote count quite easily
The grand total of six party signs I saw in my part of north Dorset this week were: 1 for BP, 2 for LD and 3 signs for the Green Party. That's in an area that was strongly Leave in 2016.
Could it be that Leave voters have just had enough?
North Dorset?
Thinks.
A bus is a big long taxi, rather like a long lorry with windows cut out. It stops at certain places and people get on and off as required....
Thanks... I have seen them on the TV (not on the streets round here though, obvs)
> @isam said: > > @isam said: > > > The facetious comment is probably quite right! > > > > > > Actually, the people I’m looking at on twitter are saying that if BXP are getting 85-90% of Leave votes, then they win with 35%ish of the vote, and the fact that turnout is down in Leave areas (or not up as much as in Remain) is no biggie > > > > If TBP were getting 85-90% of the leave vote and around 35% of the total the Tories would probably be under 5%. Not going to happen. I think that the leave vote will be more like 40-45% of which they will get 75% putting them around 30% overall. > > They say YouGov had BXP getting that % of Leave vote > > Some Remainers will vote Tory?
Some but I think that the Tory vote hardened towards the end despite the exasperation. It certainly did in this house.
A lot of triumphant lib dems talk based upon small turnout increases, rather suspect to me. Their highest poll score was 20% and in the last 2 weeks they never got closer than 12% behind BXP.
On Thursday 6th June there will be a parliamentary by-election in Peterborough following the jailing of the previous MP. There are 15 candidates, and given the current complete disillusionment with politics and a sense of political exhaustion, there may be a very low turnout, so someone might win with a remarkably low number of votes and low percentage of the vote. This must represent a unique opportunity for the candidate for the Official Monster Raving Loony party; if you live in Peterborough do vote for him; it would really tell the political establishment what you think of them. If you have friends or relatives in Peterborough, do encourage them. The revolution starts here. (Available at Coral and Ladbroke's at 1000-1
Fact: the last time anyone displayed a Conservative poster in their house was in about 1992. (You still see them in fields sometimes). It's not worth the hassle I assume.
The house rises on 20th July so if the winner isn't announced until 21st July there won't be a sitting Parliament to call a VONC.
However when the House returns on 5th September its possible the first and only act of that sitting will be to dissolve Parliament for a 3rd October general election?
That is yet another dimension to the situation as it might play out.
I wonder, if as an immediate reaction to the result of the leadership contest, two or more MPs renounce the Conservative whip, or the DUP indicate they cannot work with the new leader, can Mrs May go to the Palace and honestly tell HMQ who she needs to send for? I think it’s possible that Mrs May might stay as PM through a summer election, with the new Conservative leader in place.
I've never known anything so stupid than EU elections where people can spend days speculating about turnout but no one is allowed to actually count the ******* ballots.
> @Brom said: > A lot of triumphant lib dems talk based upon small turnout increases, rather suspect to me. Their highest poll score was 20% and in the last 2 weeks they never got closer than 12% behind BXP.
True, but it is almost refreshing to not have someone playing an expectations game for once.
> @justin124 said: > > @GIN1138 said: > > > @Scott_P said: > > > https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1132018476221194241 > > > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1132018480176177152 > > > > > > The house rises on 20th July so if the winner isn't announced until 21st July there won't be a sitting Parliament to call a VONC. > > > > However when the House returns on 5th September its possible the first and only act of that sitting will be to dissolve Parliament for a 3rd October general election? > > Polling Day would be later than that. The FTPA requires five weeks between Dissolution and Polling Day - 17th October would be more likely.
> > That is yet another dimension to the situation as it might play out. > > I wonder, if as an immediate reaction to the result of the leadership contest, two or more MPs renounce the Conservative whip, or the DUP indicate they cannot work with the new leader, can Mrs May go to the Palace and honestly tell HMQ who she needs to send for? I think it’s possible that Mrs May might stay as PM through a summer election, with the new Conservative leader in place.
There will be a LOT of very unhappy journalists if their forced to cancel their holidays for an August election.
> @Brom said: > A lot of triumphant lib dems talk based upon small turnout increases, rather suspect to me. Their highest poll score was 20% and in the last 2 weeks they never got closer than 12% behind BXP.
It could all end in tears for the LDs on Sunday night if they don't get anywhere near 20%.
> @justin124 said: > > @GIN1138 said: > > > @Scott_P said: > > > https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1132018476221194241 > > > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1132018480176177152 > > > > > > The house rises on 20th July so if the winner isn't announced until 21st July there won't be a sitting Parliament to call a VONC. > > > > However when the House returns on 5th September its possible the first and only act of that sitting will be to dissolve Parliament for a 3rd October general election? > > Polling Day would be later than that. The FTPA requires five weeks between Dissolution and Polling Day - 17th October would be more likely.
That would leave us 2 weeks to prevent a no deal Brexit. It would be totally irresponsible and reckless. You may well be right.
Actually, the people I’m looking at on twitter are saying that if BXP are getting 85-90% of Leave votes, then they win with 35%ish of the vote, and the fact that turnout is down in Leave areas (or not up as much as in Remain) is no biggie
>
>
>
> If TBP were getting 85-90% of the leave vote and around 35% of the total the Tories would probably be under 5%. Not going to happen. I think that the leave vote will be more like 40-45% of which they will get 75% putting them around 30% overall.
>
> They say YouGov had BXP getting that % of Leave vote
>
> Some Remainers will vote Tory?
Some but I think that the Tory vote hardened towards the end despite the exasperation. It certainly did in this house.
Hmmm... it would still meant That BXP getting 85% of Leave votes meant Conservatives could get 10% which is fair I think. Turnout is ok in Tory Leave places
> @Sandpit said: > > I wonder, if as an immediate reaction to the result of the leadership contest, two or more MPs renounce the Conservative whip, or the DUP indicate they cannot work with the new leader, can Mrs May go to the Palace and honestly tell HMQ who she needs to send for? I think it’s possible that Mrs May might stay as PM through a summer election, with the new Conservative leader in place. --------
Or neither party wants an election where they risk losing badly, so May carries on as PM with two leaders of the opposition - the official one and the leader of her own party.
> @kle4 said: > > @Brom said: > > A lot of triumphant lib dems talk based upon small turnout increases, rather suspect to me. Their highest poll score was 20% and in the last 2 weeks they never got closer than 12% behind BXP. > > True, but it is almost refreshing to not have someone playing an expectations game for once.
It's possible that a long gap between vote and result let some imaginations run wild. There's a combined 8m ukip and Tory votes from 2014, if most of them aren't going to the Brexit Party then where do people think they are disappearing to?
turnout needs to be much higher than a 4 or 5% increase in remain areas for the lib dems to have aspirations of winning imo
> @RochdalePioneers said: > > @justin124 said: > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > > @Scott_P said: > > > > https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1132018476221194241 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1132018480176177152 > > > > > > > > > The house rises on 20th July so if the winner isn't announced until 21st July there won't be a sitting Parliament to call a VONC. > > > > > > However when the House returns on 5th September its possible the first and only act of that sitting will be to dissolve Parliament for a 3rd October general election? > > > > Polling Day would be later than that. The FTPA requires five weeks between Dissolution and Polling Day - 17th October would be more likely. > > I said 17th October this morning
"She done everything"? From The Times? Truly this is the end of days.
> @DavidL said: > > @justin124 said: > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > > @Scott_P said: > > > > https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1132018476221194241 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1132018480176177152 > > > > > > > > > The house rises on 20th July so if the winner isn't announced until 21st July there won't be a sitting Parliament to call a VONC. > > > > > > However when the House returns on 5th September its possible the first and only act of that sitting will be to dissolve Parliament for a 3rd October general election? > > > > Polling Day would be later than that. The FTPA requires five weeks between Dissolution and Polling Day - 17th October would be more likely. > > That would leave us 2 weeks to prevent a no deal Brexit. It would be totally irresponsible and reckless. You may well be right.
Well presumably Boris would be campaigning on a platform of implementing No Deal and Jezza would be campaigning on a platform of... Well, who knows...
> I wonder, if as an immediate reaction to the result of the leadership contest, two or more MPs renounce the Conservative whip, or the DUP indicate they cannot work with the new leader, can Mrs May go to the Palace and honestly tell HMQ who she needs to send for? I think it’s possible that Mrs May might stay as PM through a summer election, with the new Conservative leader in place.
--------
Or neither party wants an election where they risk losing badly, so May carries on as PM with two leaders of the opposition - the official one and the leader of her own party.
LOL, that’s not entirely impossible, given everything that’s gone before!
> That would leave us 2 weeks to prevent a no deal Brexit. It would be totally irresponsible and reckless. You may well be right.
Well presumably Boris would be campaigning on a platform of implementing No Deal and Jezza would be campaigning on a platform of... Well, who knows...
I would think there would be a few ways for a determined PM/Tory Party to delay things for those two weeks as well. There must be a scenario in which a no confidence vote makes no difference....
> @DavidL said: > > @The_Taxman said: > > > @DavidL said: > > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > John Redwood on Sky is saying he believes the economy has been deliberately slowed by the treasury and we need an injection of public spending. > > > > > > These people are truly mental, they really are. He, a supposedly dry as dust Tory fiscal hawk, thinks that the Chancellor has reduced the deficit by too much and should boost public borrowing to accelerate short term growth???? > > > > > > I mean, words just fail me. > > > > +1 > > I think "Brexiteers" have some sort of mental disorder where they confuse their ideological purity for reality and anything that does not conform to it is seen as being a deliberate act to stop Brexit. Confronted with real evidence of economic damage related to Brexit they are in denial and cry project fear. They are stark raving mad, the Tories are f*****d. I doubt I will ever vote for them again. Such a sad end to a party... > > I’m still a Brexiteer but no one can seriously dispute that they have allowed a nest of vipers in their nest which ultimately, astonishingly enough, turned on them and bit them. I heard Cash on the radio driving home. What a deeply unpleasant, irrational ideologue. He should have been deselected decades ago. Just mad and bad.
> > @Brom said: > > A lot of triumphant lib dems talk based upon small turnout increases, rather suspect to me. Their highest poll score was 20% and in the last 2 weeks they never got closer than 12% behind BXP. > > True, but it is almost refreshing to not have someone playing an expectations game for once.
It's possible that a long gap between vote and result let some imaginations run wild. There's a combined 8m ukip and Tory votes from 2014, if most of them aren't going to the Brexit Party then where do people think they are disappearing to?
turnout needs to be much higher than a 4 or 5% increase in remain areas for the lib dems to have aspirations of winning imo
If my polling station is anything to go by, not turning out.
Fact: the last time anyone displayed a Conservative poster in their house was in about 1992. (You still see them in fields sometimes). It's not worth the hassle I assume.
Houses without any political posters, but well tended gardens, are often a surefire way of spotting a Conservative household.
> @Casino_Royale said: > Fact: the last time anyone displayed a Conservative poster in their house was in about 1992. (You still see them in fields sometimes). It's not worth the hassle I assume. > > Houses without any political posters, but well tended gardens, are often a surefire way of spotting a Conservative household.
It’s the smell of hypocrisy that’s the sure fire tell tale.
Not completely consistent with a Lib Dem tsunami? But it’s all about who bothered to vote.
We know the electorate is very volatile at present, that Euro elections are unpredictable and not taken too seriously, with the pollsters methods still not wholly reliable, which makes it a real opportunity for betting value.
This one could throw out all sorts of funny results.
> @AndreaParma_82 said: > Exit poll from Ireland > > > Dublin constituency (3 seats) > > Green 23 > Fine Gael 14 > Fianna Fail 12 > Clare Daly 12 > Sinn Fein 10 > Social Democracts 6 > Labour 5 > > > South (4 seats) > > Fine Gael 16 > Sinn Fein 13 > Fianna Fail 13 > Greens 12 > Wallace Ind 10 > Fiann File#2 9 > Fine Gael#2 9 > Fine Gael#3 4 > Labour 3 > > Midlands North West (4 seats) > > Fine Gael 25% > Sinn Fine 15% > Greens 12 > Fine Gale 12 > Flanagan 10 > Casey 7 > Fianna Fail 7 > Fianna Fail 3 > Labour 3
Surprising a state broadcaster is publishing exit polls - I thought they were embargoed until 10pm Sunday under EU rules.
Of course these are only first preferences and post transfers STV May give a different result. Two of those elected - the last seat won in Midlands north west and Dublin - also won’t be able to take their seats until and if the UK leaves the EU.
Still seems the Irish Greens - at least in Dublin - may as with the UK Lib Dems have finally recovered from the effects of being a junior coalition partner just after the crash.
> Fact: the last time anyone displayed a Conservative poster in their house was in about 1992. (You still see them in fields sometimes). It's not worth the hassle I assume.
>
> Houses without any political posters, but well tended gardens, are often a surefire way of spotting a Conservative household.
It’s the smell of hypocrisy that’s the sure fire tell tale.
Labour voters smell of socialism, despair, violence, malice, vicious resentment and poo. And helpfully display posters too.
> @brokenwheel said: > > @kle4 said: > > > > @Brom said: > > > A lot of triumphant lib dems talk based upon small turnout increases, rather suspect to me. Their highest poll score was 20% and in the last 2 weeks they never got closer than 12% behind BXP. > > > > True, but it is almost refreshing to not have someone playing an expectations game for once. > > It's possible that a long gap between vote and result let some imaginations run wild. There's a combined 8m ukip and Tory votes from 2014, if most of them aren't going to the Brexit Party then where do people think they are disappearing to? > > turnout needs to be much higher than a 4 or 5% increase in remain areas for the lib dems to have aspirations of winning imo > > If my polling station is anything to go by, not turning out.
I'm sure it was quiet 5 years ago too but all the info we have suggest little change in the turnout.
Fact: the last time anyone displayed a Conservative poster in their house was in about 1992. (You still see them in fields sometimes). It's not worth the hassle I assume.
Houses without any political posters, but well tended gardens, are often a surefire way of spotting a Conservative household.
Shocking stereotyping! Don't say that to Mrs P - she has very green fingers and Green tendencies.
> @Casino_Royale said: > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > Fact: the last time anyone displayed a Conservative poster in their house was in about 1992. (You still see them in fields sometimes). It's not worth the hassle I assume. > > > > > > Houses without any political posters, but well tended gardens, are often a surefire way of spotting a Conservative household. > > > > It’s the smell of hypocrisy that’s the sure fire tell tale. > > Labour voters smell of socialism, despair, violence, malice, vicious resentment and poo. And helpfully display posters too. > > How’s that?
> @Casino_Royale said: > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > Fact: the last time anyone displayed a Conservative poster in their house was in about 1992. (You still see them in fields sometimes). It's not worth the hassle I assume. > > > > > > Houses without any political posters, but well tended gardens, are often a surefire way of spotting a Conservative household. > > > > It’s the smell of hypocrisy that’s the sure fire tell tale. > > Labour voters smell of socialism, despair, violence, malice, vicious resentment and poo. And helpfully display posters too. > > How’s that?
It is easy to spot a green voter. They have concreted over both front and rear gardens.
> > Fact: the last time anyone displayed a Conservative poster in their house was in about 1992. (You still see them in fields sometimes). It's not worth the hassle I assume.
>
> >
>
> > Houses without any political posters, but well tended gardens, are often a surefire way of spotting a Conservative household.
>
>
>
> It’s the smell of hypocrisy that’s the sure fire tell tale.
>
> Labour voters smell of socialism, despair, violence, malice, vicious resentment and poo. And helpfully display posters too.
>
> How’s that?
We all poo, even conservatives.
Yes, but we wipe our bottoms, wash our hands, and flush.
> @Casino_Royale said: > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > > > > Fact: the last time anyone displayed a Conservative poster in their house was in about 1992. (You still see them in fields sometimes). It's not worth the hassle I assume. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Houses without any political posters, but well tended gardens, are often a surefire way of spotting a Conservative household. > > > > > > > > > > > > It’s the smell of hypocrisy that’s the sure fire tell tale. > > > > > > Labour voters smell of socialism, despair, violence, malice, vicious resentment and poo. And helpfully display posters too. > > > > > > How’s that? > > > > We all poo, even conservatives. > > Yes, but we wipe our bottoms, wash our hands, and flush.
> @ralphmalph said: > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > > Fact: the last time anyone displayed a Conservative poster in their house was in about 1992. (You still see them in fields sometimes). It's not worth the hassle I assume. > > > > > > > > > > Houses without any political posters, but well tended gardens, are often a surefire way of spotting a Conservative household. > > > > > > > > It’s the smell of hypocrisy that’s the sure fire tell tale. > > > > Labour voters smell of socialism, despair, violence, malice, vicious resentment and poo. And helpfully display posters too. > > > > How’s that? > > It is easy to spot a green voter. They have concreted over both front and rear gardens.
On the way to the office yesterday I passed a house with a Green Party board and three fairly beefy diesel cars on the drive.
> @ralphmalph said: > > @williamglenn said: > > John Redwood on Sky is saying he believes the economy has been deliberately slowed by the treasury and we need an injection of public spending. > > He expands on this with his reasoning on his blog. One of his main arguments is that the treasury has increased VED on diesel cars in the face of a consumer slowdown that was already underway.
If only there was another product you could buy that had the same utility as a diesel car. If only...
Because if there was some substitute you could buy, then rational consumers would simply buy it.
Sadly, I don't think there is a substitute for diesel cars.
> > > Fact: the last time anyone displayed a Conservative poster in their house was in about 1992. (You still see them in fields sometimes). It's not worth the hassle I assume.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > Houses without any political posters, but well tended gardens, are often a surefire way of spotting a Conservative household.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > It’s the smell of hypocrisy that’s the sure fire tell tale.
>
> >
>
> > Labour voters smell of socialism, despair, violence, malice, vicious resentment and poo. And helpfully display posters too.
>
> >
>
> > How’s that?
>
>
>
> We all poo, even conservatives.
>
> Yes, but we wipe our bottoms, wash our hands, and flush.
> > > A lot of triumphant lib dems talk based upon small turnout increases, rather suspect to me. Their highest poll score was 20% and in the last 2 weeks they never got closer than 12% behind BXP.
> >
> > True, but it is almost refreshing to not have someone playing an expectations game for once.
>
> It's possible that a long gap between vote and result let some imaginations run wild. There's a combined 8m ukip and Tory votes from 2014, if most of them aren't going to the Brexit Party then where do people think they are disappearing to?
>
> turnout needs to be much higher than a 4 or 5% increase in remain areas for the lib dems to have aspirations of winning imo
>
> If my polling station is anything to go by, not turning out.
I'm sure it was quiet 5 years ago too but all the info we have suggest little change in the turnout.
I voted here 5 years ago too, it was way down in comparison. I'm sure the remainier wards saw increases which may balance out the turnout a little.
> @rcs1000 said: > OK. Now my forecasts. > > I've held them back until now so they're fresh. > > <b>Brexit</b> > Will win. Duh. But probably do slightly less well than forecast, as UKIP slightly outperforms. 31%. > > <b>Labour</b> > Second. Does better than some of the polls suggested. There are lots of habitual Labour voters. 20%. > > <b>Conservative</b> > Also does better than expected, getting third place, with 16%. > > <b>LibDem</b> > Tied in third, or just a smidgen behind, are the LDs. Who (umm) come out slightly below their NEV in the locals. > > <b>Green</b> > Underperforms somewhat. 7% > > <b>UKIP</b> > Better than people expected: 4% > > <b>CUK</b> > Disastrous. 1% > > <b>Nats</b> > 5%. > > These are ex-NI > > > >
I think that the Lib Dem’s and Labour will be the other way around. Labour’s campaign was no better than the Tories and they didn’t have one. I think you are a bit optimistic about the Tory vote too.
> > > Fact: the last time anyone displayed a Conservative poster in their house was in about 1992. (You still see them in fields sometimes). It's not worth the hassle I assume.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Houses without any political posters, but well tended gardens, are often a surefire way of spotting a Conservative household.
> >
> >
> >
> > It’s the smell of hypocrisy that’s the sure fire tell tale.
> >
> > Labour voters smell of socialism, despair, violence, malice, vicious resentment and poo. And helpfully display posters too.
> >
> > How’s that?
>
> It is easy to spot a green voter. They have concreted over both front and rear gardens.
On the way to the office yesterday I passed a house with a Green Party board and three fairly beefy diesel cars on the drive.
Guilt. Probably fly first class with Emma Thompson too.
> @AndyJS said: > > @Pulpstar said: > > 29.99% and 31% ex NI are about the same ? > > Do you know whether Betfair are basing the percentages on GB or UK?
> @AndyJS said: > > @Pulpstar said: > > 29.99% and 31% ex NI are about the same ? > > Do you know whether Betfair are basing the percentages on GB or UK?
Brexit - Will win. Duh. But probably do slightly less well than forecast, as UKIP slightly outperforms. 31%. Labour - Second. Does better than some of the polls suggested. There are lots of habitual Labour voters. 20%. Conservative - Also does better than expected, getting third place, with 16%. LibDem -Tied in third, or just a smidgen behind, are the LDs. Who (umm) come out slightly below their NEV in the locals Green - Underperforms somewhat - 7% UKIP - Better than people expected - 4% CUK - Disastrous - 1% Nats - 5% These are ex-NI
Hmm. That would be a very embarrassing result for most participants, which seems like it should be surprising. That said, some of your guesses I think are pretty sound.
BXP - 32% - Low thirties is a fair way up on what UKIP got last time thanks to Tory votes, but with residual UKIP votes I'd agree with you they may not reach the dizzying heights they have threatened.
Labour - 17% - On the low side, as they have had plenty of polling in the 20s, but I am banking on their being at least some basis to some switching to the LDs, but it was pretty late in the day, and as you say they have a great habitual vote.
LD - 15% -Would more than double what they got last time, and be perfectly impressive given they have not heretofore been rewarded for their unequivocal Pro-EU stance. Pushing Labour close for second seems a fine result.
CON - 10% - I do think they will drop more than Robert thinks - the atmosphere among Tories seems to be poisonous, mutinous or depressed, so I think they will do well to stay in double figures - I think so many of their voters will be staying home.
Green - 9% - A good rise, but like the locals not grabbing headlines like the LDs, and probably just missing out on pushing the tories into 5th.
UKIP - 3% - They still managed to send a leaflet to my house which is more than anyone but BXP managed, I don't think they will do well but will hope to have enough in a single region to get something out of this
CUK - 3% - Just not breaking through, will be damn lucky to get anything out of this
> @oldpolitics said: > > @AndyJS said: > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > 29.99% and 31% ex NI are about the same ? > > > > Do you know whether Betfair are basing the percentages on GB or UK? > > Market rules say UK.
Seems to me Labour and the Tories are both being massively despondent, which means it will be easy to take at least some comfort from results which are merely bad, rather than disastrous (for Tories that would be merely disastrous, rather than a wipe out), while LD and BXP are going full on overhyping mode, confident that even if they do not reach the level some supporters now dream of it will still be so clearly a good night it does not matter.
It seems blindingly obvious to me that the only thing that can possibly satisfy the country as a whole is EFTA or something that looks just like it. Hard Brexit or Revoke (as some Remainers have moved on to advocating) are both likely to be catastrophically bad for our politics.
Paul has no chance. After much deliberation on here it was Jude Kirton-Darling - our number 1 on the NE List - who made me vote Labour. She has a chance of retaining a seat. Maybe. And she's been a great MEP
Comments
> > @Sandpit said:
> >
> > The VED is like stamp duty though, it’s an amount that needs to be found in cash on the day of the transaction - as opposed to the VAT that gets lost in the finance agreement. It’s a significant factor in affordability of the deal as a whole.
>
> If the buyer can't afford the VED then they can't afford the vehicle.
>
> We should not be encouraging excessive personal debt.
The solution is to tighten the credit rules, which is what the Bank of England did. If buyers do not have the cash for the VED they can go to wonga or family or spend the rent on it. If the loan company says no, that is it. It is no.
> https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1132018476221194241
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1132018480176177152
The house rises on 20th July so if the winner isn't announced until 21st July there won't be a sitting Parliament to call a VONC.
However when the House returns on 5th September its possible the first and only act of that sitting will be to dissolve Parliament for a 3rd October general election?
> It is weird that the odds on TBP vote share have changed to lower expectations, but the odds on them winning haven't budged even 0.01 on Betfair. You don't have to think they aren't favourites to think they aren't quite as strong favourites now.
Not really, because they'll probably still win easily with 27% as opposed to 32% or 37%.
> > @isam said:
>
> > There has to be a fair chance the LDs have won? If we hadn't seen any opinion polls, just the turnouts, they'd prob be favs
>
> >
>
> > https://twitter.com/JChristy93/status/1131928075871162369
>
>
>
>
>
> Is there any way of working out what, if any, differential turnout the polls expected? But depending on what you mean 'fair chance' I'm not convinced. Turnout doesn't tell us who the people are voting for, I'd rather be the pollsters with a sample telling us who they intend to vote for. All we know is areas, not who in the areas of how.
>
>
>
> I'm satisfied with the 1/33 I laid against TBP last night, but I don't think it was an amazing bet.
>
>
>
> (Being facetious, if we hadn't seen ANY polls and say a remain surge I wonder if we'd think Change UK were connecting? If it wasn't for polling we might not be expecting a LD surge at all - apart from the Locals I guess.)
>
> The facetious comment is probably quite right!
>
> Actually, the people I’m looking at on twitter are saying that if BXP are getting 85-90% of Leave votes, then they win with 35%ish of the vote, and the fact that turnout is down in Leave areas (or not up as much as in Remain) is no biggie
If TBP were getting 85-90% of the leave vote and around 35% of the total the Tories would probably be under 5%. Not going to happen. I think that the leave vote will be more like 40-45% of which they will get 75% putting them around 30% overall.
Thinks.
A bus is a big long taxi, rather like a long lorry with windows cut out. It stops at certain places and people get on and off as required....
Some Remainers will vote Tory?
> Betfair has now issued directly contradictory emails & statements on the May exit date market...
They're not exactly currying favour with their own users.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @another_richard said:
> > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > It would be so ironic if the Lib Dems out vote TBP
> > > >
> > > > Indeed I think it is possible remain will win the vote count quite easily
> > >
> > > It would be good to see the ERG meltdown.
> >
> > I would be very pleased to see that
>
> It would be a truly massive polling failure too.
Well we've just had a couple of those in the Netherlands, and Australia to a degree.
> > @isam said:
>
> > The facetious comment is probably quite right!
>
> >
>
> > Actually, the people I’m looking at on twitter are saying that if BXP are getting 85-90% of Leave votes, then they win with 35%ish of the vote, and the fact that turnout is down in Leave areas (or not up as much as in Remain) is no biggie
>
>
>
> If TBP were getting 85-90% of the leave vote and around 35% of the total the Tories would probably be under 5%. Not going to happen. I think that the leave vote will be more like 40-45% of which they will get 75% putting them around 30% overall.
>
> They say YouGov had BXP getting that % of Leave vote
>
> Some Remainers will vote Tory?
Some but I think that the Tory vote hardened towards the end despite the exasperation. It certainly did in this house.
This must represent a unique opportunity for the candidate for the Official Monster Raving Loony party; if you live in Peterborough do vote for him; it would really tell the political establishment what you think of them. If you have friends or relatives in Peterborough, do encourage them. The revolution starts here.
(Available at Coral and Ladbroke's at 1000-1
I wonder, if as an immediate reaction to the result of the leadership contest, two or more MPs renounce the Conservative whip, or the DUP indicate they cannot work with the new leader, can Mrs May go to the Palace and honestly tell HMQ who she needs to send for? I think it’s possible that Mrs May might stay as PM through a summer election, with the new Conservative leader in place.
Only in the EU...
Sounds like a Tory
> A lot of triumphant lib dems talk based upon small turnout increases, rather suspect to me. Their highest poll score was 20% and in the last 2 weeks they never got closer than 12% behind BXP.
True, but it is almost refreshing to not have someone playing an expectations game for once.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1132018476221194241
> >
> >
> >
> > https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1132018480176177152
>
>
> The house rises on 20th July so if the winner isn't announced until 21st July there won't be a sitting Parliament to call a VONC.
>
> However when the House returns on 5th September its possible the first and only act of that sitting will be to dissolve Parliament for a 3rd October general election?
Polling Day would be later than that. The FTPA requires five weeks between Dissolution and Polling Day - 17th October would be more likely.
> My Tory leadership name: James Elizabeth-Spatula
>
> Sounds like a Tory
Mrs P is Maria Ashton-Whisk
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > > @Scott_P said:
> > > https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1132018476221194241
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1132018480176177152
> >
> >
> > The house rises on 20th July so if the winner isn't announced until 21st July there won't be a sitting Parliament to call a VONC.
> >
> > However when the House returns on 5th September its possible the first and only act of that sitting will be to dissolve Parliament for a 3rd October general election?
>
> Polling Day would be later than that. The FTPA requires five weeks between Dissolution and Polling Day - 17th October would be more likely.
I said 17th October this morning
>
> That is yet another dimension to the situation as it might play out.
>
> I wonder, if as an immediate reaction to the result of the leadership contest, two or more MPs renounce the Conservative whip, or the DUP indicate they cannot work with the new leader, can Mrs May go to the Palace and honestly tell HMQ who she needs to send for? I think it’s possible that Mrs May might stay as PM through a summer election, with the new Conservative leader in place.
There will be a LOT of very unhappy journalists if their forced to cancel their holidays for an August election.
> A lot of triumphant lib dems talk based upon small turnout increases, rather suspect to me. Their highest poll score was 20% and in the last 2 weeks they never got closer than 12% behind BXP.
It could all end in tears for the LDs on Sunday night if they don't get anywhere near 20%.
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > > @Scott_P said:
> > > https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1132018476221194241
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1132018480176177152
> >
> >
> > The house rises on 20th July so if the winner isn't announced until 21st July there won't be a sitting Parliament to call a VONC.
> >
> > However when the House returns on 5th September its possible the first and only act of that sitting will be to dissolve Parliament for a 3rd October general election?
>
> Polling Day would be later than that. The FTPA requires five weeks between Dissolution and Polling Day - 17th October would be more likely.
That would leave us 2 weeks to prevent a no deal Brexit. It would be totally irresponsible and reckless. You may well be right.
>
> I wonder, if as an immediate reaction to the result of the leadership contest, two or more MPs renounce the Conservative whip, or the DUP indicate they cannot work with the new leader, can Mrs May go to the Palace and honestly tell HMQ who she needs to send for? I think it’s possible that Mrs May might stay as PM through a summer election, with the new Conservative leader in place.
--------
Or neither party wants an election where they risk losing badly, so May carries on as PM with two leaders of the opposition - the official one and the leader of her own party.
> > @Brom said:
> > A lot of triumphant lib dems talk based upon small turnout increases, rather suspect to me. Their highest poll score was 20% and in the last 2 weeks they never got closer than 12% behind BXP.
>
> True, but it is almost refreshing to not have someone playing an expectations game for once.
It's possible that a long gap between vote and result let some imaginations run wild. There's a combined 8m ukip and Tory votes from 2014, if most of them aren't going to the Brexit Party then where do people think they are disappearing to?
turnout needs to be much higher than a 4 or 5% increase in remain areas for the lib dems to have aspirations of winning imo
> > @justin124 said:
> > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > > @Scott_P said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1132018476221194241
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1132018480176177152
> > >
> > >
> > > The house rises on 20th July so if the winner isn't announced until 21st July there won't be a sitting Parliament to call a VONC.
> > >
> > > However when the House returns on 5th September its possible the first and only act of that sitting will be to dissolve Parliament for a 3rd October general election?
> >
> > Polling Day would be later than that. The FTPA requires five weeks between Dissolution and Polling Day - 17th October would be more likely.
>
> I said 17th October this morning
"She done everything"? From The Times? Truly this is the end of days.
https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/1131975984520073216
> > @justin124 said:
> > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > > @Scott_P said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1132018476221194241
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1132018480176177152
> > >
> > >
> > > The house rises on 20th July so if the winner isn't announced until 21st July there won't be a sitting Parliament to call a VONC.
> > >
> > > However when the House returns on 5th September its possible the first and only act of that sitting will be to dissolve Parliament for a 3rd October general election?
> >
> > Polling Day would be later than that. The FTPA requires five weeks between Dissolution and Polling Day - 17th October would be more likely.
>
> That would leave us 2 weeks to prevent a no deal Brexit. It would be totally irresponsible and reckless. You may well be right.
Well presumably Boris would be campaigning on a platform of implementing No Deal and Jezza would be campaigning on a platform of... Well, who knows...
> https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1132028759928987654
Another country doesn't wait until Sunday night.
> > @The_Taxman said:
> > > @DavidL said:
> > > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > John Redwood on Sky is saying he believes the economy has been deliberately slowed by the treasury and we need an injection of public spending.
> > >
> > > These people are truly mental, they really are. He, a supposedly dry as dust Tory fiscal hawk, thinks that the Chancellor has reduced the deficit by too much and should boost public borrowing to accelerate short term growth????
> > >
> > > I mean, words just fail me.
> >
> > +1
> > I think "Brexiteers" have some sort of mental disorder where they confuse their ideological purity for reality and anything that does not conform to it is seen as being a deliberate act to stop Brexit. Confronted with real evidence of economic damage related to Brexit they are in denial and cry project fear. They are stark raving mad, the Tories are f*****d. I doubt I will ever vote for them again. Such a sad end to a party...
>
> I’m still a Brexiteer but no one can seriously dispute that they have allowed a nest of vipers in their nest which ultimately, astonishingly enough, turned on them and bit them. I heard Cash on the radio driving home. What a deeply unpleasant, irrational ideologue. He should have been deselected decades ago. Just mad and bad.
Well said.
Dublin constituency (3 seats)
Green 23
Fine Gael 14
Fianna Fail 12
Clare Daly 12
Sinn Fein 10
Social Democracts 6
Labour 5
South (4 seats)
Fine Gael 16
Sinn Fein 13
Fianna Fail 13
Greens 12
Wallace Ind 10
Fiann File#2 9
Fine Gael#2 9
Fine Gael#3 4
Labour 3
Midlands North West (4 seats)
Fine Gael 25%
Sinn Fein 15%
Greens 12
Fine Gael 12
Flanagan 10
Casey 7
Fianna Fail 7
Fianna Fail 3
Labour 3
> https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1132029835042332673
>
>
>
> There’s definitely some Lib-Dem barchartery on those numbers.
The 3% bar being about two-thirds the length of the 23% bar is lovely work.
> While we have no actual votes to talk about... Hypotheticals will have to do
>
> https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/1131975984520073216
Not completely consistent with a Lib Dem tsunami? But it’s all about who bothered to vote.
> Fact: the last time anyone displayed a Conservative poster in their house was in about 1992. (You still see them in fields sometimes). It's not worth the hassle I assume.
>
> Houses without any political posters, but well tended gardens, are often a surefire way of spotting a Conservative household.
It’s the smell of hypocrisy that’s the sure fire tell tale.
This one could throw out all sorts of funny results.
> Exit poll from Ireland
>
>
> Dublin constituency (3 seats)
>
> Green 23
> Fine Gael 14
> Fianna Fail 12
> Clare Daly 12
> Sinn Fein 10
> Social Democracts 6
> Labour 5
>
>
> South (4 seats)
>
> Fine Gael 16
> Sinn Fein 13
> Fianna Fail 13
> Greens 12
> Wallace Ind 10
> Fiann File#2 9
> Fine Gael#2 9
> Fine Gael#3 4
> Labour 3
>
> Midlands North West (4 seats)
>
> Fine Gael 25%
> Sinn Fine 15%
> Greens 12
> Fine Gale 12
> Flanagan 10
> Casey 7
> Fianna Fail 7
> Fianna Fail 3
> Labour 3
Surprising a state broadcaster is publishing exit polls - I thought they were embargoed until 10pm Sunday under EU rules.
Of course these are only first preferences and post transfers STV May give a different result. Two of those elected - the last seat won in Midlands north west and Dublin - also won’t be able to take their seats until and if the UK leaves the EU.
Still seems the Irish Greens - at least in Dublin - may as with the UK Lib Dems have finally recovered from the effects of being a junior coalition partner just after the crash.
How’s that?
Looking good for BXP in Euro19
BXP 42%
LD 21%
GRN 11%
LAB 8%
CON 6%
OTH 12%
D'Hondt LAB 3 seats CON 1 seat
> @viewcode said:
> @trussliz
>
> Social liberal. Economically conservative.
>
> Our last hope.
>
> Which is why she won't win. Sadly, IMHO...
> > @kle4 said:
>
> > > @Brom said:
> > > A lot of triumphant lib dems talk based upon small turnout increases, rather suspect to me. Their highest poll score was 20% and in the last 2 weeks they never got closer than 12% behind BXP.
> >
> > True, but it is almost refreshing to not have someone playing an expectations game for once.
>
> It's possible that a long gap between vote and result let some imaginations run wild. There's a combined 8m ukip and Tory votes from 2014, if most of them aren't going to the Brexit Party then where do people think they are disappearing to?
>
> turnout needs to be much higher than a 4 or 5% increase in remain areas for the lib dems to have aspirations of winning imo
>
> If my polling station is anything to go by, not turning out.
I'm sure it was quiet 5 years ago too but all the info we have suggest little change in the turnout.
> > @Casino_Royale said:
>
> > Fact: the last time anyone displayed a Conservative poster in their house was in about 1992. (You still see them in fields sometimes). It's not worth the hassle I assume.
>
> >
>
> > Houses without any political posters, but well tended gardens, are often a surefire way of spotting a Conservative household.
>
>
>
> It’s the smell of hypocrisy that’s the sure fire tell tale.
>
> Labour voters smell of socialism, despair, violence, malice, vicious resentment and poo. And helpfully display posters too.
>
> How’s that?
We all poo, even conservatives.
> > @Casino_Royale said:
>
> > Fact: the last time anyone displayed a Conservative poster in their house was in about 1992. (You still see them in fields sometimes). It's not worth the hassle I assume.
>
> >
>
> > Houses without any political posters, but well tended gardens, are often a surefire way of spotting a Conservative household.
>
>
>
> It’s the smell of hypocrisy that’s the sure fire tell tale.
>
> Labour voters smell of socialism, despair, violence, malice, vicious resentment and poo. And helpfully display posters too.
>
> How’s that?
It is easy to spot a green voter. They have concreted over both front and rear gardens.
I've held them back until now so they're fresh.
<b>Brexit</b>
Will win. Duh. But probably do slightly less well than forecast, as UKIP slightly outperforms. 31%.
<b>Labour</b>
Second. Does better than some of the polls suggested. There are lots of habitual Labour voters. 20%.
<b>Conservative</b>
Also does better than expected, getting third place, with 16%.
<b>LibDem</b>
Tied in third, or just a smidgen behind, are the LDs. Who (umm) come out slightly below their NEV in the locals.
<b>Green</b>
Underperforms somewhat. 7%
<b>UKIP</b>
Better than people expected: 4%
<b>CUK</b>
Disastrous. 1%
<b>Nats</b>
5%.
These are ex-NI
> > @Casino_Royale said:
>
> > > @Casino_Royale said:
>
> >
>
> > > Fact: the last time anyone displayed a Conservative poster in their house was in about 1992. (You still see them in fields sometimes). It's not worth the hassle I assume.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > Houses without any political posters, but well tended gardens, are often a surefire way of spotting a Conservative household.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > It’s the smell of hypocrisy that’s the sure fire tell tale.
>
> >
>
> > Labour voters smell of socialism, despair, violence, malice, vicious resentment and poo. And helpfully display posters too.
>
> >
>
> > How’s that?
>
>
>
> We all poo, even conservatives.
>
> Yes, but we wipe our bottoms, wash our hands, and flush.
We use bog roll, but each to their own
(The old ones are the best)
> > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > @Casino_Royale said:
> >
> > > Fact: the last time anyone displayed a Conservative poster in their house was in about 1992. (You still see them in fields sometimes). It's not worth the hassle I assume.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Houses without any political posters, but well tended gardens, are often a surefire way of spotting a Conservative household.
> >
> >
> >
> > It’s the smell of hypocrisy that’s the sure fire tell tale.
> >
> > Labour voters smell of socialism, despair, violence, malice, vicious resentment and poo. And helpfully display posters too.
> >
> > How’s that?
>
> It is easy to spot a green voter. They have concreted over both front and rear gardens.
On the way to the office yesterday I passed a house with a Green Party board and three fairly beefy diesel cars on the drive.
> > @williamglenn said:
> > John Redwood on Sky is saying he believes the economy has been deliberately slowed by the treasury and we need an injection of public spending.
>
> He expands on this with his reasoning on his blog. One of his main arguments is that the treasury has increased VED on diesel cars in the face of a consumer slowdown that was already underway.
If only there was another product you could buy that had the same utility as a diesel car. If only...
Because if there was some substitute you could buy, then rational consumers would simply buy it.
Sadly, I don't think there is a substitute for diesel cars.
Shall we end this?
It’s very credible.
> OK. Now my forecasts.
>
> I've held them back until now so they're fresh.
>
> <b>Brexit</b>
> Will win. Duh. But probably do slightly less well than forecast, as UKIP slightly outperforms. 31%.
>
> <b>Labour</b>
> Second. Does better than some of the polls suggested. There are lots of habitual Labour voters. 20%.
>
> <b>Conservative</b>
> Also does better than expected, getting third place, with 16%.
>
> <b>LibDem</b>
> Tied in third, or just a smidgen behind, are the LDs. Who (umm) come out slightly below their NEV in the locals.
>
> <b>Green</b>
> Underperforms somewhat. 7%
>
> <b>UKIP</b>
> Better than people expected: 4%
>
> <b>CUK</b>
> Disastrous. 1%
>
> <b>Nats</b>
> 5%.
>
> These are ex-NI
>
>
>
>
I think that the Lib Dem’s and Labour will be the other way around. Labour’s campaign was no better than the Tories and they didn’t have one. I think you are a bit optimistic about the Tory vote too.
> https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1132024012526235648
I love Ed
> 29.99% and 31% ex NI are about the same ?
Do you know whether Betfair are basing the percentages on GB or UK?
I'll go for:
BP 29%
LD 21%
Lab 18%
Green 12%
Con 8%
UKIP 4%
CUK 3%
NATs 5%
> https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1132037015413899265
Shame that Swinson is not that persuasive
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > 29.99% and 31% ex NI are about the same ?
>
> Do you know whether Betfair are basing the percentages on GB or UK?
"UK as a whole"
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > 29.99% and 31% ex NI are about the same ?
>
> Do you know whether Betfair are basing the percentages on GB or UK?
Market rules say UK.
BXP - 32% - Low thirties is a fair way up on what UKIP got last time thanks to Tory votes, but with residual UKIP votes I'd agree with you they may not reach the dizzying heights they have threatened.
Labour - 17% - On the low side, as they have had plenty of polling in the 20s, but I am banking on their being at least some basis to some switching to the LDs, but it was pretty late in the day, and as you say they have a great habitual vote.
LD - 15% -Would more than double what they got last time, and be perfectly impressive given they have not heretofore been rewarded for their unequivocal Pro-EU stance. Pushing Labour close for second seems a fine result.
CON - 10% - I do think they will drop more than Robert thinks - the atmosphere among Tories seems to be poisonous, mutinous or depressed, so I think they will do well to stay in double figures - I think so many of their voters will be staying home.
Green - 9% - A good rise, but like the locals not grabbing headlines like the LDs, and probably just missing out on pushing the tories into 5th.
UKIP - 3% - They still managed to send a leaflet to my house which is more than anyone but BXP managed, I don't think they will do well but will hope to have enough in a single region to get something out of this
CUK - 3% - Just not breaking through, will be damn lucky to get anything out of this
> > @Sandpit said:
> > https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1132029835042332673
> >
> >
> >
> > There’s definitely some Lib-Dem barchartery on those numbers.
>
> The 3% bar being about two-thirds the length of the 23% bar is lovely work.
What happened to the guy with the stick?
> > @AndyJS said:
> > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > 29.99% and 31% ex NI are about the same ?
> >
> > Do you know whether Betfair are basing the percentages on GB or UK?
>
> Market rules say UK.
That's a pleasant surprise.
https://twitter.com/paulbrannenne/status/1131679073816780800?s=21
See Ed Balls for a further example.
They’d be much better off showing their personalities a little more while in the job.
That is, they are all still playing games.
> > @solarflare said:
> > > @Sandpit said:
> > > https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1132029835042332673
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > There’s definitely some Lib-Dem barchartery on those numbers.
> >
> > The 3% bar being about two-thirds the length of the 23% bar is lovely work.
>
> What happened to the guy with the stick?
If you read the axis as starting at the grey line, and the bit to the right of the grey line as a colour-coded figure, it becomes a lot more legit.
> Labour are going to have a very bad result.
>
> https://twitter.com/paulbrannenne/status/1131679073816780800?s=21
Paul has no chance. After much deliberation on here it was Jude Kirton-Darling - our number 1 on the NE List - who made me vote Labour. She has a chance of retaining a seat. Maybe. And she's been a great MEP