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I think one can accept two victories in the London Mayoral elections as reasonably good evidence for that notion, even if you might have doubts for various reasons (Ken, it being seven years ago, etc)
> "Johnson’s reputation is based on the untested notion that he reaches voters that other potential leaders are unable to do."
>
> I think one can accept two victories in the London Mayoral elections as reasonably good evidence for that notion, even if you might have doubts for various reasons (Ken, it being seven years ago, etc)
Johnson won the Mayoralty at a time when the Tories nationally were very much on the up and his campaign managed to build the vote in high turnout outer London areas. In fact the margin was much closer than expected.
> "Johnson’s reputation is based on the untested notion that he reaches voters that other potential leaders are unable to do."
>
> I think one can accept two victories in the London Mayoral elections as reasonably good evidence for that notion, even if you might have doubts for various reasons (Ken, it being seven years ago, etc)
Johnson beat an anti-Semitic, far-left incumbent - so that should give the Tories some hope. But that was seven years ago and Johnson's public reputation has changed quite a bit since then. I think he has a chance against Corbyn, but if Labour changes leaders before the election (very unlikely, but who knows these days?), then I do not see how he wins.
Today has seen a lot of hate-filled postings from those on the left towards a person who tried as hard as possible to navigate an impossible situation. They are used lies to justify their hate and they have shown that they lack basic human courtesy towards someone who has dedicated much of her adult life to public service.
Every politician has flaws but when you see genuine emotion, you have to respond to that with a certain level of respect. Not spewing lies about their record to justify your own hate.
May did not initiate the hostile atmosphere towards illegal immigrants - that was the Labour Party when they were last in power. Windrush generation repatriations started under a Labour administration. Could she have done more to right these wrongs? Of course. But she did not initiate the policies. But Labour and their toxic followers just keep spinning the same lies to deny their culpability in these areas.
As regards the future, I just don't know. The prospect of any move that takes Corbyn even one step closer to Downing Street fills me with dread. But I am not sure that the Conservative Party is capable of finding their feet again in time.
There is one brain round the current Cabinet table that I think could find a way through this but the public perception of him would make it difficult for him to succeed. Johnson - I just don't see it but it feels almost inevitable right now. Raab is a no-hoper. Hunt is a survivor but not a leader, Javid feels a bit like Obama (and not in a good way) - what he appears to represent could be powerful, what he actually says and has done is far less convincing.
I just don't know.
> I can't see Brady on that chart. Some mishtake surely?
Brady's 36/1 on Betfair - not tight enough odds to register on the chart.
> > @OblitusSumMe said:
> > "Johnson’s reputation is based on the untested notion that he reaches voters that other potential leaders are unable to do."
> >
> > I think one can accept two victories in the London Mayoral elections as reasonably good evidence for that notion, even if you might have doubts for various reasons (Ken, it being seven years ago, etc)
>
> Johnson won the Mayoralty at a time when the Tories nationally were very much on the up and his campaign managed to build the vote in high turnout outer London areas. In fact the margin was much closer than expected.
I think he reaches gullible fools and idiots with almost the same efficacy as Nigel Farage. In that regard he far surpasses anyone else in the Tory Party, though it isn't much of an endorsement
I wont be putting anything his way at 36 though.
> Boris is probably the most hated and despised man in Europe (UK included) at the moment. Making him PM would be, shall we say, interesting.
I think it's safe to say this is a massive exaggeration. Most hated and despised man? Get a grip.
Like one of those Olympic years where the gold medal goes to someone who normally wouldn't make the final.
> Johnson won the Mayoralty at a time when the Tories nationally were very much on the up and his campaign managed to build the vote in high turnout outer London areas. In fact the margin was much closer than expected.
Yes, there are various reasons to doubt his electoral appeal. It's still evidence in his favour compared to the other candidates. Where is the evidence for the electoral appeal of Raab, Gove, Hunt or Esther 'Heart of Stone' McVey?
A lot of people say stuff like this to hide their real feelings, but I am not really a particular fan of Boris. I am a Brexiteer and I don't buy that he really is.
> I just don't know what to think any more.
>
> Today has seen a lot of hate-filled postings from those on the left towards a person who tried as hard as possible to navigate an impossible situation. They are used lies to justify their hate and they have shown that they lack basic human courtesy towards someone who has dedicated much of her adult life to public service.
>
> Every politician has flaws but when you see genuine emotion, you have to respond to that with a certain level of respect. Not spewing lies about their record to justify your own hate.
>
> May did not initiate the hostile atmosphere towards illegal immigrants - that was the Labour Party when they were last in power. Windrush generation repatriations started under a Labour administration. Could she have done more to right these wrongs? Of course. But she did not initiate the policies. But Labour and their toxic followers just keep spinning the same lies to deny their culpability in these areas.
>
> As regards the future, I just don't know. The prospect of any move that takes Corbyn even one step closer to Downing Street fills me with dread. But I am not sure that the Conservative Party is capable of finding their feet again in time.
>
> There is one brain round the current Cabinet table that I think could find a way through this but the public perception of him would make it difficult for him to succeed. Johnson - I just don't see it but it feels almost inevitable right now. Raab is a no-hoper. Hunt is a survivor but not a leader, Javid feels a bit like Obama (and not in a good way) - what he appears to represent could be powerful, what he actually says and has done is far less convincing.
>
> I just don't know.
Up until your (admittedly lukewarm) endorsement of Boris Johnson I was agreeing with everything you said
In that case, won't the fortunes of the Tory party be decided primarily by whether No Deal is tolerable or disastrous, rather than the finer points of Johnson's appeal to the electorate?
> I just don't know what to think any more.
>
> Today has seen a lot of hate-filled postings from those on the left towards a person who tried as hard as possible to navigate an impossible situation.
And there we were thinking it was Conservative Cabinet Ministers who failed to support the Prime Minister and who leaked against her; that it was Conservative MPs who repeatedly voted her down; that it was the Conservative men in grey suits who forced her out. Bloody lefties.
> > @oxfordsimon said:
> > I just don't know what to think any more.
> >
> > Today has seen a lot of hate-filled postings from those on the left towards a person who tried as hard as possible to navigate an impossible situation. They are used lies to justify their hate and they have shown that they lack basic human courtesy towards someone who has dedicated much of her adult life to public service.
> >
> > Every politician has flaws but when you see genuine emotion, you have to respond to that with a certain level of respect. Not spewing lies about their record to justify your own hate.
> >
> > May did not initiate the hostile atmosphere towards illegal immigrants - that was the Labour Party when they were last in power. Windrush generation repatriations started under a Labour administration. Could she have done more to right these wrongs? Of course. But she did not initiate the policies. But Labour and their toxic followers just keep spinning the same lies to deny their culpability in these areas.
> >
> > As regards the future, I just don't know. The prospect of any move that takes Corbyn even one step closer to Downing Street fills me with dread. But I am not sure that the Conservative Party is capable of finding their feet again in time.
> >
> > There is one brain round the current Cabinet table that I think could find a way through this but the public perception of him would make it difficult for him to succeed. Johnson - I just don't see it but it feels almost inevitable right now. Raab is a no-hoper. Hunt is a survivor but not a leader, Javid feels a bit like Obama (and not in a good way) - what he appears to represent could be powerful, what he actually says and has done is far less convincing.
> >
> > I just don't know.
>
> Up until your (admittedly lukewarm) endorsement of Boris Johnson I was agreeing with everything you said
As Simon says Gove is the sane option out of this mess so there is no way the Tory Party will elect him..
> Isn't all this deliberation about Johnson's political appeal rather secondary, if there's a likelihood of his taking us out of the EU without a deal?
>
> In that case, won't the fortunes of the Tory party be decided primarily by whether No Deal is tolerable or disastrous, rather than the finer points of Johnson's appeal to the electorate?
It is precisely because as the surge of the Brexit Party shows voters, especially Leave voters prefer No Deal to any further extension that hard Brexit now offers the best chance for the Tories to beat Corbyn in the autumn and Boris has the charisma to do so
> > @oxfordsimon said:
> > I just don't know what to think any more.
> >
> >
>
> Up until your (admittedly lukewarm) endorsement of Boris Johnson I was agreeing with everything you said
I didn't endorse Johnson - I just said that it felt inevitable that he will win.
I certainly don't hope for that. I don't think he is right for the job on a number of levels - but things are so fractured at the moment, I find it hard to see who beats him.
Of course, there will be new scandals about his personal life to emerge in the Sunday papers. But he has weathered those in the past. And he is perfectly capable of undermining himself with a gaffe or two.
But I certainly don't think he should win.
> I just don't know what to think any more.
>
> Today has seen a lot of hate-filled postings from those on the left towards a person who tried as hard as possible to navigate an impossible situation. They are used lies to justify their hate and they have shown that they lack basic human courtesy towards someone who has dedicated much of her adult life to public service.
>
I think you generalise too much about what "the left" think and say. FWIW this was my tweet on the subject:
Quite apart from politics I thought yesterday's media bullying of May was revolting. I disagreed with her most of the time but she did her best as she saw it - let's let her retire in dignity without further sneering from any side.
> When William Hague looks head and shoulders above all of the potential candidates, you know that the parliamentary conservative party is not bursting t the seams with talent.
>
> Like one of those Olympic years where the gold medal goes to someone who normally wouldn't make the final.
As Corbyn is such a gold standard leader of Labour
Nope, me neither but I assure you they are both Tory MPs.
> > @MikeSmithson said:
> > Johnson won the Mayoralty at a time when the Tories nationally were very much on the up and his campaign managed to build the vote in high turnout outer London areas. In fact the margin was much closer than expected.
>
> Yes, there are various reasons to doubt his electoral appeal. It's still evidence in his favour compared to the other candidates. Where is the evidence for the electoral appeal of Raab, Gove, Hunt or Esther 'Heart of Stone' McVey?
McVey appeals to the parts other candidates cannot reach.
Well, except for Priti and The Truss I guess.
> "Johnson’s reputation is based on the untested notion that he reaches voters that other potential leaders are unable to do."
>
>
>
> I think one can accept two victories in the London Mayoral elections as reasonably good evidence for that notion, even if you might have doubts for various reasons (Ken, it being seven years ago, etc)
>
> When I used to suggest that Farage was the reason Leave won the referendum, I was howled down with shouts of "It was actually Boris who got them over the line". Now Boris is on the verge of leading the Tory party, all of a sudden he hasn't connected with voters since 2012...
>
> A lot of people say stuff like this to hide their real feelings, but I am not really a particular fan of Boris. I am a Brexiteer and I don't buy that he really is.
Farage's blatantly racist poster probably did appeal to the blatantly racist, and got them out to vote. So he does deserve the "credit" in that regard. Personally I think Boris Johnson did make a difference, even if his support was almost certainly disingenuous.
> Boris is probably the most hated and despised man in Europe (UK included) at the moment. Making him PM would be, shall we say, interesting.
Being hated and despised by the liberal left does not stop you winning as a right-winger at the moment, see Trump, Salvini, Netanyahu, Bolsonaro, Modi, Morrison etc.
If Boris wins over blue collar and skilled working class voters in the suburbs and market towns it does not matter if he loses some urban professional graduates
> Whilst investigating the cluster fuck of the May exit date market I glanced at my Next Tory Leader market and discovered I am actually all green (to the tune of 3 whole pounds). Technically I win 20 pounds if, say, aiain Duncan Smith gets in.
That wouldn't be much consolation...
>
> When I used to suggest that Farage was the reason Leave won the referendum, I was howled down with shouts of "It was actually Boris who got them over the line". Now Boris is on the verge of leading the Tory party, all of a sudden he hasn't connected with voters since 2012...
>
> A lot of people say stuff like this to hide their real feelings, but I am not really a particular fan of Boris. I am a Brexiteer and I don't buy that he really is. <
+++++
Intriguingly, there's a lot of BXPers on Twitter spitting venom at Boris, saying, like you, that he's not a true Brexiteer, he's just lying etc etc (btw I am not labelling you a Farageist, just noting the echo)
Beneath all the anger, I think, is a simple fear that Boris is the one Tory politician who has the charisma to outdo Farage, and destroy Farage's new party.
If that is the case, it is perhaps an argument in Boris's favour.
> If not Boris I could see Steve Baker getting it such is the momentum within the Tory Party now with hard Brexiteers
Not a chance in hell.
Basically, to get on the ballot you need one-third of Tory MPs to back you.
So a hard Brexiteer candidate needs to get at least some more pragmatic types on board, who feel they aren't so bad and have a solution to the impasse, whilst not losing any fellow Brexiteers who think they are thick as mince / bonkers.
Steve Baker simply can't do that for obvious reasons.
> When I used to suggest that Farage was the reason Leave won the referendum, I was howled down with shouts of "It was actually Boris who got them over the line". Now Boris is on the verge of leading the Tory party, all of a sudden he hasn't connected with voters since 2012...
>
> A lot of people say stuff like this to hide their real feelings, but I am not really a particular fan of Boris. I am a Brexiteer and I don't buy that he really is.
Well, I was out of the country for a lot of the EU referendum campaign so I wasn't going to base my argument on that. A mayoral election should be more clear cut, but you can see there are arguments against there too.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/05/24/sorry-mrs-may-compromise-dirty-word-involves-betrayal-brexit/
I mean - just who??? Who else are you going to pluck from the limited ranks of the Conservative Parliamentary Party to become PM - and tackle each of Farage and Corbyn and the EU and Trump and Putin?
It would be nice to have a choice, but....
> > @anothernick said:
> > Boris is probably the most hated and despised man in Europe (UK included) at the moment. Making him PM would be, shall we say, interesting.
>
> I think it's safe to say this is a massive exaggeration. Most hated and despised man? Get a grip.
He is probably up there. Farage might beat him, along with the man Farage most admires who currently occupies the Kremlin (though that is not quite in Europe)
> IDS: I'm sorry Mrs May, but compromise is a dirty word when it involves the betrayal of Brexit
>
> https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/05/24/sorry-mrs-may-compromise-dirty-word-involves-betrayal-brexit/
Never! Never! Never!
> Mrs B, hmm... wasn't Aldous the gorilla general in Planet of the Apes?
MP for Waveney. Honest.
He may well win, then he can implement May's deal with some sort of a majority. That's the optimistic scenario for the Tories with Boris in charge.
> How long before the fuss seriously starts on 150K members deciding who is PM, while the rest of us look on?
The voters had a choice in 2017, and will have another in 2022.
As normal.
> > @Nigel_Foremain said:
> > > @oxfordsimon said:
> > > I just don't know what to think any more.
> > >
> > > Today has seen a lot of hate-filled postings from those on the left towards a person who tried as hard as possible to navigate an impossible situation. They are used lies to justify their hate and they have shown that they lack basic human courtesy towards someone who has dedicated much of her adult life to public service.
> > >
> > > Every politician has flaws but when you see genuine emotion, you have to respond to that with a certain level of respect. Not spewing lies about their record to justify your own hate.
> > >
> > > May did not initiate the hostile atmosphere towards illegal immigrants - that was the Labour Party when they were last in power. Windrush generation repatriations started under a Labour administration. Could she have done more to right these wrongs? Of course. But she did not initiate the policies. But Labour and their toxic followers just keep spinning the same lies to deny their culpability in these areas.
> > >
> > > As regards the future, I just don't know. The prospect of any move that takes Corbyn even one step closer to Downing Street fills me with dread. But I am not sure that the Conservative Party is capable of finding their feet again in time.
> > >
> > > There is one brain round the current Cabinet table that I think could find a way through this but the public perception of him would make it difficult for him to succeed. Johnson - I just don't see it but it feels almost inevitable right now. Raab is a no-hoper. Hunt is a survivor but not a leader, Javid feels a bit like Obama (and not in a good way) - what he appears to represent could be powerful, what he actually says and has done is far less convincing.
> > >
> > > I just don't know.
> >
> > Up until your (admittedly lukewarm) endorsement of Boris Johnson I was agreeing with everything you said
>
> As Simon says Gove is the sane option out of this mess so there is no way the Tory Party will elect him..
Alternatively, Gove is the reason we are in this mess.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/alanwhite/which-tory-leader-are-you
> > @oxfordsimon said:
> > I just don't know what to think any more.
> >
> > Today has seen a lot of hate-filled postings from those on the left towards a person who tried as hard as possible to navigate an impossible situation.
>
> And there we were thinking it was Conservative Cabinet Ministers who failed to support the Prime Minister and who leaked against her; that it was Conservative MPs who repeatedly voted her down; that it was the Conservative men in grey suits who forced her out. Bloody lefties.
I have plenty to say about the poor behaviour of the parliamentary Conservative party and of MPs in general. That wasn't the post to do that.
It was all about the tone of the response from the left on a day where they displayed a lack of respect towards a public servant - a flawed one, without question - who didn't deserve the vitriol they have sought to throw at her today.
We all have moments where we are less than civil towards our opponents - but when they resign from high office after a turbulent period, a more considered approach is always appropriate.
> > @oxfordsimon said:
> > I just don't know what to think any more.
> >
> > Today has seen a lot of hate-filled postings from those on the left towards a person who tried as hard as possible to navigate an impossible situation. They are used lies to justify their hate and they have shown that they lack basic human courtesy towards someone who has dedicated much of her adult life to public service.
> >
> I think you generalise too much about what "the left" think and say. FWIW this was my tweet on the subject:
>
> Quite apart from politics I thought yesterday's media bullying of May was revolting. I disagreed with her most of the time but she did her best as she saw it - let's let her retire in dignity without further sneering from any side.
>
>
I agree, Nick.
It's perfectly possible to think May's premiership disastrous both for the country (and, FWIW, the Tory party), as I do, but have sympathy for her on a human level.
> How long before the fuss seriously starts on 150K members deciding who is PM, while the rest of us look on?
This will soon be a huge issue. Our new PM will have been chosen by probably around 50,000 people, or about 0.1% of the electorate, almost all of them of pensionable age. His or her democratic legitimacy will be pretty much zero and certainly not a mandate to take the UK out of the EU without a deal against the wishes of Parliament and the vast majority of the electorate, as will be revealed by the votes on Sunday.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1131940675388432384
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1131940877407010816
> > @oxfordsimon said:
> > I just don't know what to think any more.
> >
> > Today has seen a lot of hate-filled postings from those on the left towards a person who tried as hard as possible to navigate an impossible situation. They are used lies to justify their hate and they have shown that they lack basic human courtesy towards someone who has dedicated much of her adult life to public service.
> >
> I think you generalise too much about what "the left" think and say. FWIW this was my tweet on the subject:
>
> Quite apart from politics I thought yesterday's media bullying of May was revolting. I disagreed with her most of the time but she did her best as she saw it - let's let her retire in dignity without further sneering from any side.
>
> <
+++++
Agreed. And it wasn't just the Left that was cruel (though they were), that awful Telegraph front page of her various grimaces came close to mockery of the afflicted.
Nasty.
>
> Beneath all the anger, I think, is a simple fear that Boris is the one Tory politician who has the charisma to outdo Farage, and destroy Farage's new party.
>
-------
I don't think that's the reason. The Brexit Party isn't a Farage personality cult. People are suspicious of Johnson for the reasons they state.
> > @rottenborough said:
> > How long before the fuss seriously starts on 150K members deciding who is PM, while the rest of us look on?
>
> This will soon be a huge issue. Our new PM will have been chosen by probably around 50,000 people, or about 0.1% of the electorate, almost all of them of pensionable age. His or her democratic legitimacy will be pretty much zero and certainly not a mandate to take the UK out of the EU without a deal against the wishes of Parliament and the vast majority of the electorate, as will be revealed by the votes on Sunday.
Wilson handed on to Callaghan. Thatcher to Major. Blair to Brown.
Where was my say in any of them???
You tackle Trump and Putin by being a member of the EU, not by fighting them.
You tackle Farage by opposing him, not by appeasing him.
Could someone please update me where, on a scale from “Polite” to “Vomit Inducing” via “Hypocritically Oleaginous”, the eulogies for Mrs May’s premiership have reached.
Thanks.
> https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1131940749279420416?s=21
> Isn't all this deliberation about Johnson's political appeal rather secondary, if there's a likelihood of his taking us out of the EU without a deal?
>
> In that case, won't the fortunes of the Tory party be decided primarily by whether No Deal is tolerable or disastrous, rather than the finer points of Johnson's appeal to the electorate?
I'd imagine his turd-polishing skills might be better than May's in such a circumstance (ie persuading* people it's tolerable rather than disastrous, or fantastic rather than tolerable etc)
(*traditional term, in this case "making a massive joke of it and hoping enough people go along with him")
> If not Boris, then who?
>
>
>
> I mean - just who??? Who else are you going to pluck from the limited ranks of the Conservative Parliamentary Party to become PM - and tackle each of Farage and Corbyn and the EU and Trump and Putin?
>
>
>
> It would be nice to have a choice, but....
>
> Well nobody, but that's kinda the point.
>
> You tackle Trump and Putin by being a member of the EU, not by fighting them.
>
> You tackle Farage by opposing him, not by appeasing him.
Am amazed any country can do anything without being in the EU, to be honest.
I think even Farage realises this - hence why he left Ukip.
https://mobile.twitter.com/EalingCouncil/status/1131938424477425665
Plenty of choice for those of bigoted sensibilities
> > @Byronic said:
> >
> > Beneath all the anger, I think, is a simple fear that Boris is the one Tory politician who has the charisma to outdo Farage, and destroy Farage's new party.
> >
> -------
>
> I don't think that's the reason. The Brexit Party isn't a Farage personality cult. People are suspicious of Johnson for the reasons they state. <
++++
As is often the case, both are probably true. They are not mutually contradictory.
Hardcore BXPers don't trust Boris, they ALSO fear his ability to damage their new party.
You forgot the classic 'history will look more kindly than we do today'!
I keep thinking it's switched to Crimewatch by mistake
George Osborne has a freezer for sale.
> > @rottenborough said:
> > How long before the fuss seriously starts on 150K members deciding who is PM, while the rest of us look on?
>
> This will soon be a huge issue. Our new PM will have been chosen by probably around 50,000 people, or about 0.1% of the electorate, almost all of them of pensionable age. His or her democratic legitimacy will be pretty much zero and certainly not a mandate to take the UK out of the EU without a deal against the wishes of Parliament and the vast majority of the electorate, as will be revealed by the votes on Sunday.
Indeed. It is a democratically unsustainable position. There will have to be a GE, but is there time before Halloween?
> I got Matt Hancock......no, me neither:
>
> https://www.buzzfeed.com/alanwhite/which-tory-leader-are-you
I got Amber Rudd!
Now according to those self-same people he's apparently a True Believer and Leavers not sure of his credentials have ulterior motives.
That's what it's always like with Remainers, nothing but disingenuous gaslighting. It's so boring.
> What is Boris going to do about his seat? Marginal these days and Owen Jones and friends will be camping there for the next three years.
Win it, Hillingdon voted comfortably Leave
> What is Boris going to do about his seat? Marginal these days and Owen Jones and friends will be camping there for the next three years.
I can't see how he loses Uxbridge. There is very little third party vote for Labour to squeeze. And what exists is 50/50 UKIP and LibDem.
> "Johnson’s reputation is based on the untested notion that he reaches voters that other potential leaders are unable to do."
>
>
>
> I think one can accept two victories in the London Mayoral elections as reasonably good evidence for that notion, even if you might have doubts for various reasons (Ken, it being seven years ago, etc)
>
> When I used to suggest that Farage was the reason Leave won the referendum, I was howled down with shouts of "It was actually Boris who got them over the line". Now Boris is on the verge of leading the Tory party, all of a sudden he hasn't connected with voters since 2012...
>
> A lot of people say stuff like this to hide their real feelings, but I am not really a particular fan of Boris. I am a Brexiteer and I don't buy that he really is.
Can't both statements be true? Say 5% of voters could only have been persuaded to back Brexit by Boris, and another 5% only by Farage, then had either not been involved in the campaign, remain would have won?
> > @rottenborough said:
> > How long before the fuss seriously starts on 150K members deciding who is PM, while the rest of us look on?
>
> This will soon be a huge issue. Our new PM will have been chosen by probably around 50,000 people, or about 0.1% of the electorate, almost all of them of pensionable age. His or her democratic legitimacy will be pretty much zero and certainly not a mandate to take the UK out of the EU without a deal against the wishes of Parliament and the vast majority of the electorate, as will be revealed by the votes on Sunday.
This old chestnut comes up time after time. And it falls because we don't have a directly elected Head of Government. We have seen many handovers from one Prime Minister to their successor mid-Parliament.
Cameron to May (aborted leadership election process)
Blair to Brown (no leadership election at all)
Thatcher to Major (MPs only election process)
Wilson to Callaghan (MPs only election process)
And those are just the ones in my lifetime
Assuming this new leadership process is completed as anticipated at this stag, it will be the first time that the new leader will have faced a full membership vote
We have seen mid-term change of PM so many times that it really isn't an issue
> > @HYUFD said:
> > If not Boris I could see Steve Baker getting it such is the momentum within the Tory Party now with hard Brexiteers
>
> Not a chance in hell.
>
> Basically, to get on the ballot you need one-third of Tory MPs to back you.
>
> So a hard Brexiteer candidate needs to get at least some more pragmatic types on board, who feel they aren't so bad and have a solution to the impasse, whilst not losing any fellow Brexiteers who think they are thick as mince / bonkers.
>
> Steve Baker simply can't do that for obvious reasons.
Tory Remainer MPs are not going to vote for a Remain leader. It would be a waste of a vote, and furthermore it leaves the other Leave candidate, whoever it is, as the next PM.
There is going to be a hard Brexiteer candidate - probably Raab, possibly Baker. Tory Remainer MPs should vote for Boris on a One Nation platform with Amber Rudd holding his hand. The membership will then pick him and the Remainers can get to work with him. First action will be to defer the 31 October date on the grounds that it's a new PM, which the EU will grant.
> https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1131940749279420416?s=21
Probably not a bad move by them - elect someone (relatively) young and shiny without anyone concentrating on policy differences because they're all too busy on BoJo v Brady (!).. then they emerge as the main voice against Boris's No Deal while Corbyn sinks into irrelevance with fence splinters in his arse.
> If you have PM Boris you don't need Farage or the Brexit party.
>
> I think even Farage realises this - hence why he left Ukip.
>
>
Boris always being so reliable, trustworthy and competent.
> https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1131940749279420416
>
>
>
> LDs didn't want to be left out eh?
I have to say, I think Cable is wrong to do it at the same time as the Tory contest. Who the PM is may well affect who the Lib Dems would be best off choosing. Similar thing when Farron got in - they went for a left-ish, revive the activist base candidate in Farron. If they'd known they'd be facing Corbyn (and a load of unhappy Labour MPs who might defect) Lamb would have been the better choice (pragmatic, liked by MPs of other parties).
> I’ve been out.
>
> Could someone please update me where, on a scale from “Polite” to “Vomit Inducing” via “Hypocritically Oleaginous”, the eulogies for Mrs May’s premiership have reached.
>
> Thanks.
I must admit it is difficult to see that picture of her crying without feeling momentary sympathy.
But then you remember all the genuine pain and suffering she has caused to so many people - not with regard to Brexit but with the way she handled immigration matters when she was Home Secretary and then PM.
I find my heart rapidly hardening towards her at that point.
> Sorry if I’m being thick here, but wouldn’t this graph look good for Leave if the 2016 Ref axis was their %s not Remains?
I think the key assumption you are implicitly making is that the increase in turnout will be reflective of the 2016 referendum vote, so if the turnout goes up in an area which majority voted Leave then that means more Leave voters for the national total, but that isn't what the graph shows.
What it shows is that you can predict the increase in turnout by looking at the Remain vote percentage. That strongly implies that the increase in turnout is because Remainers are more motivated to vote, relative to Leavers, than they were in 2014. That implies differential turnout in favour of Remainers.
It's not a huge effect though.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > If not Boris I could see Steve Baker getting it such is the momentum within the Tory Party now with hard Brexiteers
>
> Not a chance in hell.
>
> Basically, to get on the ballot you need one-third of Tory MPs to back you.
>
> So a hard Brexiteer candidate needs to get at least some more pragmatic types on board, who feel they aren't so bad and have a solution to the impasse, whilst not losing any fellow Brexiteers who think they are thick as mince / bonkers.
>
> Steve Baker simply can't do that for obvious reasons.
If MPs both Leave and Remain start falling into line behind Boris and drift from Hunt for the sake of their careers given Boris' big lead with members then Baker could scrape into the final two with the ERG hard right fully behind him and knock out Hunt.
Baker could knock out Hunt as IDS knocked out Portillo
> > @rottenborough said:
> > What is Boris going to do about his seat? Marginal these days and Owen Jones and friends will be camping there for the next three years.
>
> I can't see how he loses Uxbridge. There is very little third party vote for Labour to squeeze. And what exists is 50/50 UKIP and LibDem.
The whole of London could turn into Wimbledon as remain voters can't work out whether to stick Labour or go Lib Dem in a GE.
> BREAKING:
>
> George Osborne has a freezer for sale.
George might regret being out of parliament for this leadership contest.
> > @isam said:
>
>
>
> >
>
> > When I used to suggest that Farage was the reason Leave won the referendum, I was howled down with shouts of "It was actually Boris who got them over the line". Now Boris is on the verge of leading the Tory party, all of a sudden he hasn't connected with voters since 2012...
>
> >
>
> > A lot of people say stuff like this to hide their real feelings, but I am not really a particular fan of Boris. I am a Brexiteer and I don't buy that he really is. <
>
>
>
> +++++
>
>
>
> Intriguingly, there's a lot of BXPers on Twitter spitting venom at Boris, saying, like you, that he's not a true Brexiteer, he's just lying etc etc (btw I am not labelling you a Farageist, just noting the echo)
>
>
>
> Beneath all the anger, I think, is a simple fear that Boris is the one Tory politician who has the charisma to outdo Farage, and destroy Farage's new party.
>
>
>
> If that is the case, it is perhaps an argument in Boris's favour.
>
> Funny, before Boris joined the Leave campaign all the Remainers on here were saying he wasn't really a Leaver, he was just doing it for political gain.
>
> Now according to those self-same people he's apparently a True Believer and Leavers not sure of his credentials have ulterior motives.
>
> That's what it's always like with Remainers, nothing but disingenuous gaslighting. It's so boring.
Hilarious. Boris is a charlatan. He says what he thinks will most benefit Boris. What is boring is how gullible people who still believe in this ridiculous project are. Brexit is pointless, puerile and is going to cost the country dear. Has it not got through to you yet?
https://scontent-arn2-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.15752-9/61126872_338541080192705_3280457121166000128_n.jpg?_nc_cat=108&_nc_ht=scontent-arn2-2.xx&oh=2ce9e868844b76044b1fcbe3bb52b347&oe=5D52F245
> https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1131940749279420416
>
>
>
> Just needs Corbyn to get challenged next week following an abysmal EU election result, and we’ll have all three replaced over the summer!
Why clash it with the Tories contest? Another mistake from Uncle Vince.
> How long before the fuss seriously starts on 150K members deciding who is PM, while the rest of us look on?
>
> Yes there will be a fuss, However it is a given that we have the FTPA, and a fact that we elect MPs who are responsible for formation of governments. This combines with the fact that the system allows both MPs and members a say, and that any adult can join a party if they want but most choose to leave it to others. So the question would be: How would you do it better?
In terms of good governance, MPs choosing makes more sense (and although a smaller electorate, they do at least have more democratic accountability themselves).
I understand the yearning of parties to give their members a say... but they rarely choose people who appeal to the wider electorate.
> Remainers have been voting. Hearing that the differential turn out is going to make it close..
>
> https://scontent-arn2-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.15752-9/61126872_338541080192705_3280457121166000128_n.jpg?_nc_cat=108&_nc_ht=scontent-arn2-2.xx&oh=2ce9e868844b76044b1fcbe3bb52b347&oe=5D52F245
>
> <
+++++
That does look promising for Remain. What if Remain has a majority? What does that do to the Tory leadership contest?