> @williamglenn said: > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > > Parris is an unreconciled Remainer who believes in Unicorns just as much as the ERG. He has nothing of value to bring to the conversation. > > It may be a forlorn hope to wish for a break out of sanity, but it's not a unicorn.
> @Sandpit said: > Quite a few of the runners and riders are regularly shorter for next Prime Minister than for next Conservative leader. I leave the reader to determine how likely that is in reality. > > Are you thinking that Corbyn at 40 might be value for next PM, to cover the scenario where Mrs May stays on as a caretaker through an election, as the new Con leader doesn’t have enough votes to win a confidence motion?
The only path I can see is: Johnson makes it to the final 2, mass defections from the Conservatives, who abstain in a confidence vote, handing the keys to Corbyn.
I would want more than 40 to consider backing that. Simply put, it's never going to happen. There will be no defections if Johnson wins. None at all.
> @Luckyguy1983 said: > Nadim Zahawi already talking about withholding payments. Then the EU will cave. > > Whilst insisting No Deal would not be acrimonious. > > Unicorns being saddled up and down the country. > > But of course if there were no deal there would be no payments? Are you suggesting we would get no deal and pay? > > We wouldn't even get the bare minimum "lifeboat" deals to keep some semblance of trade flowing with the EU if we won't pay for stuff like pensions. > > And I doubt many other countries would be itching to sign anything with us too as we'll have demonstrated a contempt for treaty commitments. > > Oh dear, I'm too to tired to explain trade tonight, let alone negotiation. Have fun all.
Japan and Canada have competition clauses in their EU trade deals . The EU does this with many countries . Essentially if the UK walked out on no deal and tried to undercut the EU the clauses would prohibit them doing deals with the UK.
The USA document on what they want from the UK for a deal will horrify even some Tories. And will bomb with the public .
It’s a list of great campaign messages for Labour to bash the Tories with .
> @IanB2 said: > > @Scrapheap_as_was said: > > > @david_herdson said: > > > > @JohnO said: > > > > So who am I missing from pb's Great and Grand Electors (aka Tory party members)? I have: > > > > > > > > Richard N > > > > Big G > > > > HYUFD > > > > Tissue Price > > > > TSE > > > > Max > > > > Casino (I think) > > > > DavidL > > > > Moi > > > > > > > > It's imperative we vote en bloc at the duly appointed time! > > > > > > > > > > [Gently raises hand] > > > > Raises hand loudly by also shouting COYS > > It would be doing the Tories a favour if every PB’er voted to choose the best candidate, and then the PB Tories agreed to back that person as a bloc. Got to be better than leaving the choice to Tory members, who are the last people seemingly able to make any sort of rational choice.
I am happy to vote, sight unseen, for whomever the above list can agree is our best bet as a country. However, given the (lack of) strength in the candidate list, and the fact that it's most likely a straight binary choice by the time it gets to us, I suspect it'll be a pretty easy decision in the end.
> @IanB2 said: > > @Luckyguy1983 said: > > Nadim Zahawi already talking about withholding payments. Then the EU will cave. > > > > Whilst insisting No Deal would not be acrimonious. > > > > Unicorns being saddled up and down the country. > > > > But of course if there were no deal there would be no payments? Are you suggesting we would get no deal and pay? > > The ‘no deal, we don’t pay’ route is the preferred option only of true idiots. If we leave without a deal we will need a thousand and one things agreed with the EU going forward, and they won’t agree even the one without our paying our dues.
Of course if we agree to pay and the EU agrees a thousand and one (or fewer) things without a complex deal then that's not a no deal scenario really. That's just a different deal and that's what we want.
> @dixiedean said: > > @nico67 said: > > If I was Justine Greening I’d be making a quick move to the Lib Dems . > > > > She’s toast in Putney if she stays with the Tories. > > If I was her, I'd be preparing my leadership bid. I reckon, in a secret ballot, she'd surprise many on the upside.
> @Fenman said: > > @dixiedean said: > > > @nico67 said: > > > If I was Justine Greening I’d be making a quick move to the Lib Dems . > > > > > > She’s toast in Putney if she stays with the Tories. > > > > If I was her, I'd be preparing my leadership bid. I reckon, in a secret ballot, she'd surprise many on the upside. > > She'd be welcomed by the Lib Dems.
If you were a member of a party, and an MP defected to it after your leader announced he was quitting, then that defector stood for the leadership immediately... would you vote for them?
I wouldn't. Not in 100 years. No matter whether I liked them or not.
> @nico67 said: > > @Luckyguy1983 said: > > Nadim Zahawi already talking about withholding payments. Then the EU will cave. > > > > Whilst insisting No Deal would not be acrimonious. > > > > Unicorns being saddled up and down the country. > > > > But of course if there were no deal there would be no payments? Are you suggesting we would get no deal and pay? > > > > We wouldn't even get the bare minimum "lifeboat" deals to keep some semblance of trade flowing with the EU if we won't pay for stuff like pensions. > > > > And I doubt many other countries would be itching to sign anything with us too as we'll have demonstrated a contempt for treaty commitments. > > > > Oh dear, I'm too to tired to explain trade tonight, let alone negotiation. Have fun all. > > Japan and Canada have competition clauses in their EU trade deals . The EU does this with many countries . Essentially if the UK walked out on no deal and tried to undercut the EU the clauses would prohibit them doing deals with the UK. > > The USA document on what they want from the UK for a deal will horrify even some Tories. And will bomb with the public . > > It’s a list of great campaign messages for Labour to bash the Tories with .
I thought the clauses were that if they gave a better deal or sector deals to another country then this had to be automatically given to the EU. Nothing to stop them doing deals with us.
Also I think you should pay attention to what Trump is asking of the USA to stop the tariffs on cars. It is full access to the EU for clorinated chicken, hormone beef and everything else their food producers do.
Just on the US, it's worth remembering that any UK-US trade deal needs to go through the House of Representatives. If we're seen to have f*cked the Irish (irrespective of the rights and wrongs), then it is by no means clear that a trade deal would pass.
> @rcs1000 said: > Just on the US, it's worth remembering that any UK-US trade deal needs to go through the House of Representatives. If we're seen to have f*cked the Irish (irrespective of the rights and wrongs), then it is by no means clear that a trade deal would pass.
It would not pass. It's as simple as that. The Democrats have made that clear.
Actually, I'm not sure whether that download has the raw figures. It might just have the percentages. There's definitely a similar document that has the actual voting figures floating around somewhere if it doesn't.
> @another_richard said: > > @nico67 said: > > If I was Justine Greening I’d be making a quick move to the Lib Dems . > > > > She’s toast in Putney if she stays with the Tories. > > Are you really expecting the LibDems to win Putney ?
It depends on what Labour does over the next few years but Putney is a very high Remain area . Greening only just survived the last time because she’s quite popular and pro EU . But a Tory no deal would sink her there .
I got Dominic Raab. I don't know anything about him though I suspect it does not speak well of me. Incidentally, I worked out the other day that the bloke in the jacket, jeans and white T who looked awful was Matt Hancock. Where do they get them?
> @rcs1000 said: > Just on the US, it's worth remembering that any UK-US trade deal needs to go through the House of Representatives. If we're seen to have f*cked the Irish (irrespective of the rights and wrongs), then it is by no means clear that a trade deal would pass.
If that were to be the case, it is by no means clear there would be any discussions of a trade deal.
> @nico67 said: > > @another_richard said: > > > @nico67 said: > > > If I was Justine Greening I’d be making a quick move to the Lib Dems . > > > > > > She’s toast in Putney if she stays with the Tories. > > > > Are you really expecting the LibDems to win Putney ? > > It depends on what Labour does over the next few years but Putney is a very high Remain area . Greening only just survived the last time because she’s quite popular and pro EU . But a Tory no deal would sink her there .
Brexit will either be a success or a failure.
If its a success the Conservatives will win Putney. If its a failure Labour will win Putney.
> @viewcode said: > > @Slackbladder said: > > > > @CarlottaVance said: > > > > I got Matt Hancock......no, me neither: > > > > > > > > https://www.buzzfeed.com/alanwhite/which-tory-leader-are-you > > > > > > I got Amber Rudd! > > > > so did I > > I got Dominic Raab. I don't know anything about him though I suspect it does not speak well of me. Incidentally, I worked out the other day that the bloke in the jacket, jeans and white T who looked awful was Matt Hancock. Where do they get them?
I suspect there is a website selling lightweight ToryBoys.
Perhaps Raab and Hancock came on a BOGOF special offer.
> @rcs1000 said: > Just on the US, it's worth remembering that any UK-US trade deal needs to go through the House of Representatives. If we're seen to have f*cked the Irish (irrespective of the rights and wrongs), then it is by no means clear that a trade deal would pass.
Its odd that there is still the Oirish nostalgia in the USA to a country which does jackshit for them.
Perhaps we should kick the US military out of Diego Garcia and tell them to relocate elsewhere.
My husband mentioned this little rumour a bit earlier. Apparently, there's also been differential turnout, with (on average) more voters bothering to go to the polls in Remainian areas, and actual drops in some very Brexity parts.
The differences aren't gargantuan , but possibly enough to suggest that the Brexit Party may do slightly worse, and the Lib Dems and Greens slightly better, than might otherwise have been the case?
On the Conservative leadership candidate I come up with:
Neville Wickham Saucepan
Now, from memory, he was a compatriot of Sir Waldron Smithers and an early member of the ERG (Empire Reconquest Group) which advocated the invasion of Canada, Australia, New Zealand, India and more controversially the United States.
His son, Algernon Wickham Saucepan, finished third in the 1973 Upper Class Twit of the Year contest.
It's all a complete clusterfeck, and I have enough shite going on without worrying which wank politicians are trying to climb the greasy pole. regards, Andrew Ellis Santoku
So the Boris Bandwagon has already started a-rollin'. Boris, as Prime Minister, will face exactly the same issues that bedevilled and bamboozled May. I don't see why his attempts to play both ends against the middle will be any more successful than hers but he seems determined to take us out of the EU on 31/10 whether via the WA or not.
I look forward to his verbal dexterity under some hopefully probing questions on this.
Evening all! Haven't posted all day because it's only just sunk in that Theresa's going. Well, it's been on the cards since the first meaningful vote. But not sure if Boris is the best person to succeed her.
> @twistedfirestopper3 said: > It's all a complete clusterfeck, and I have enough shite going on without worrying which wank politicians are trying to climb the greasy pole. > regards, > Andrew Ellis Santoku
“At a time like this we need a leader who is able to reach out across party lines. Regards, Max Green-Coddler”
Just on the US, it's worth remembering that any UK-US trade deal needs to go through the House of Representatives. If we're seen to have f*cked the Irish (irrespective of the rights and wrongs), then it is by no means clear that a trade deal would pass.
I have thrown all of my Silicon Valley goods into the Serpentine. Ditto my Harley Davison and my Doors Albums. I am basically not trading with the US until they elect a recognisable specimen of humanity as their president.
I'm not sure that measuring change in turnout is a particularly useful metric,especially as the yardstick was 2014.
I saw a graph earlier saying something similar, yet the turnout (with the odd exception) was pretty much within the same range, I expect we'll see the same Leave and Remain concentrations that we have for a few years now.
Anecdotes from today on who voted are just the same as yesterday in my work circle. The younger people (outskirts of London) never bothered. One older voter put their vote in weeks ago.
And there was a fair smattering of sympathy for May - 'impossible job', 'scapegoat'.
> @viewcode said: > > @Slackbladder said: > > > > @CarlottaVance said: > > > > I got Matt Hancock......no, me neither: > > > > > > > > https://www.buzzfeed.com/alanwhite/which-tory-leader-are-you > > > > > > I got Amber Rudd! > > > > so did I > > I got Dominic Raab. I don't know anything about him though I suspect it does not speak well of me. Incidentally, I worked out the other day that the bloke in the jacket, jeans and white T who looked awful was Matt Hancock. Where do they get them?
I think Matt Hancock comes across as a sly, untrustworthy oik with no personality or charisma. He would likely be worse than May as PM...
> @thecommissioner said: > > I'm not sure that measuring change in turnout is a particularly useful metric,especially as the yardstick was 2014. >
It seems like quite a good way of predicting differential turnout in this case. If Remainers were more likely to vote, you would expect the turnout to be up by more in the places where there are more Remainers.
> @rcs1000 said: > @Sandpit said: > Dan Hannan isn’t confident about his own seat either. This is a very weird election. > > (FWIW I think he’s misguided, he’ll be re-elected on 8% in the SE which is surely not possible to miss? Although he could well be the only one left). > > https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1131669660385062912 > > > ++++++++++++++++++++++ > > He won't need 8%. I'd be very surprised if he needed more than 6.5-7% to get elected, given 10 seats and ChUK and UKIP votes being wasted. > > Given the SE is likely to be one of the Tories' strongest regions, that would suggest they'd need to be on c. 6% nationwide. > > I just don't see it
Last time 8.04% was enough to elect the last MEP for the Lib Dems, but as you say there are likely to be more wasted votes this time. Last time the Conservatives received 30.95% of the vote in the south east, so one quarter of their vote would be enough.
I think that if Hannan has the sense that they are losing around three-quarters of their vote it's probably quite hard to tell the difference between retaining just enough or not enough and so you would not be surprised to see him overdo the scale of the collapse.
"This is unfamiliar territory and many diehard Remainers don’t make a case for the EU but a case against the people who are against it. They are anti-anti-Europeans bewildered by their estrangement from the reassuring political certainties shoved aside by Brexit. As they stumble around, bellowing one minute and weeping the next, liberals are every middle-aged man who isn’t handling the divorce well. She’s turned the C2s, Ds and Es against us."
Let me guess. Is this another Spectator article written by a twat who's never worked a day in their life, bemoaning the existence of Remainers and their incomprehensible inability to understand the revealed truth of Brexit ? Because I believe I have enough now to keep my garden going...
With the utmost imaginable respect to all who have participated, wtf is the point of this silly names thing? It doesn't even yield any satisfyingly silly names.
> @thecommissioner said: > > @Foxy said: > > > @thecommissioner said: > > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > Full turnout figures now available for the South West region. Overall turnout is 40.51%. > > > > > > > > https://www.bcpcouncil.gov.uk/Council-and-Democratic/Elections-and-voting/elections-voting-docs/euro-elections/SW-Region-Verification-Turnout-Report.pdf > > > > > > Much of a muchness, floating around the 40% mark. > > > > Great graphics here, and in the rest of this twitter thread. Looks good for Remain. > > > > https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1131981168134508545?s=19 > > I'm not sure that measuring change in turnout is a particularly useful metric,especially as the yardstick was 2014. > > I saw a graph earlier saying something similar, yet the turnout (with the odd exception) was pretty much within the same range, > I expect we'll see the same Leave and Remain concentrations that we have for a few years now. > > Anecdotes from today on who voted are just the same as yesterday in my work circle. The younger people (outskirts of London) never bothered. One older voter put their vote in weeks ago. > > And there was a fair smattering of sympathy for May - 'impossible job', 'scapegoat'.
With the utmost imaginable respect to all who have participated, wtf is the point of this silly names thing? It doesn't even yield any satisfyingly silly names.
It may not yield any satisfyingly silly names, but it's still better than rehash #287405265 of the Brexit arguments ...
A Greek colleague is one of the victims of the voting rights cockup - she asked about her right to vote some time ago, and was told by Fleet Council to await a letter to tell her what to do. Nothing came, so she went to vote on Thursday evening and was turned away. She complained to the Electoral Returning Officer, who said, apparently quite rudely, "If you were that keen to vote you should have found out." She asks, quite distressed as she's never missed a vote in her life, whether it's really fair that a registered voter isn't informed of a new requirement.
There was no question of the letter being delayed or anything - Fleet simply didn't bother to tell the affected voters at all, and are unapologetic about it. (This is not a party point - I have no idea how she votes.)
"This is unfamiliar territory and many diehard Remainers don’t make a case for the EU but a case against the people who are against it. They are anti-anti-Europeans bewildered by their estrangement from the reassuring political certainties shoved aside by Brexit. As they stumble around, bellowing one minute and weeping the next, liberals are every middle-aged man who isn’t handling the divorce well. She’s turned the C2s, Ds and Es against us."
And I think the Spectator is talking bollocks. Each to their own, I guess.
> Dan Hannan isn’t confident about his own seat either. This is a very weird election.
>
> (FWIW I think he’s misguided, he’ll be re-elected on 8% in the SE which is surely not possible to miss? Although he could well be the only one left).
> He won't need 8%. I'd be very surprised if he needed more than 6.5-7% to get elected, given 10 seats and ChUK and UKIP votes being wasted.
>
> Given the SE is likely to be one of the Tories' strongest regions, that would suggest they'd need to be on c. 6% nationwide.
>
> I just don't see it
Last time 8.04% was enough to elect the last MEP for the Lib Dems, but as you say there are likely to be more wasted votes this time. Last time the Conservatives received 30.95% of the vote in the south east, so one quarter of their vote would be enough.
I think that if Hannan has the sense that they are losing around three-quarters of their vote it's probably quite hard to tell the difference between retaining just enough or not enough and so you would not be surprised to see him overdo the scale of the collapse.
I think he thinks he’s probably okay, but is intelligent and aware enough to know that a Tweet saying “Looks like it’s just going to be me then” would not go down very well with the wider party support who have been knocking on doors for the last month.
Tories in single figures in the South East would be truly astonishing.
> @NickPalmer said: > A Greek colleague is one of the victims of the voting rights > cockup - she asked about her right to vote some time ago, > and was told by Fleet Council to await a letter to tell her what to do.
In Fleet Council's defence, they were abolished in 1974 so being expected to run an election 45 years later must have been quite difficult for them.
> @oldpolitics said: > > @NickPalmer said: > > A Greek colleague is one of the victims of the voting rights > > cockup - she asked about her right to vote some time ago, > > and was told by Fleet Council to await a letter to tell her what to do. > > In Fleet Council's defence, they were abolished in 1974 so being expected to run an election 45 years later must have been quite difficult for them.
> Dan Hannan isn’t confident about his own seat either. This is a very weird election.
>
> (FWIW I think he’s misguided, he’ll be re-elected on 8% in the SE which is surely not possible to miss? Although he could well be the only one left).
> He won't need 8%. I'd be very surprised if he needed more than 6.5-7% to get elected, given 10 seats and ChUK and UKIP votes being wasted.
>
> Given the SE is likely to be one of the Tories' strongest regions, that would suggest they'd need to be on c. 6% nationwide.
>
> I just don't see it
Last time 8.04% was enough to elect the last MEP for the Lib Dems, but as you say there are likely to be more wasted votes this time. Last time the Conservatives received 30.95% of the vote in the south east, so one quarter of their vote would be enough.
I think that if Hannan has the sense that they are losing around three-quarters of their vote it's probably quite hard to tell the difference between retaining just enough or not enough and so you would not be surprised to see him overdo the scale of the collapse.
I think he thinks he’s probably okay, but is intelligent and aware enough to know that a Tweet saying “Looks like it’s just going to be me then” would not go down very well with the wider party support who have been knocking on doors for the last month.
Tories in single figures in the South East would be truly astonishing.
Which people knocking on which doors? Would really be interested in where there was genuine GOTV activity, good morning leaflet, telephone knock up or doorstep. Standing at polling stations is irrelevant unless you do something with the data
OK turnout aside, what is the argument against laying Brexit 40%+ in the Betfair market?
How is 40% possible? That's 41% in GB.
Lib Dems have done well, seems clear. much under 20% would be a huge miss. Greens were getting a fair bit of support, 5% would be disappointing. Con and Lab doing badly but surely at least 25% between the two of them, probably more. UKIP and ChUK still 5% between them, you'd have to think SNP and PC should easily account for 3% That leaves 1% to distribute between random eco-warriors, English Dems, independents, animal welfare, UKEU, Yorkshire Party
I don't see how any of those numbers other than Brexit can be much lower than that.Surely even with the secrecy a party that had polled 41% wouldn't still be 5-1 to have polled under 30% (though you can of course argue it exactly the other way).
> @Sunil_Prasannan said: > > @oldpolitics said: > > > @NickPalmer said: > > > A Greek colleague is one of the victims of the voting rights > > > cockup - she asked about her right to vote some time ago, > > > and was told by Fleet Council to await a letter to tell her what to do. > > > > In Fleet Council's defence, they were abolished in 1974 > > so being expected to run an election 45 years later must have been quite > > difficult for them. > > http://www.fleet-tc.gov.uk/
Is a parish recreated in 2010 with no responsibility for the running of elections. Sandpit is right, it will be Hart DC. I was being flippant, it may well be that locals still call it Fleet Council, half a century after the fact.
> @williamglenn said: > John Redwood on Sky is saying he believes the economy has been deliberately slowed by the treasury and we need an injection of public spending.
Redwood is batshit crazy, so we can safely ignore him.
I'd even stick my neck out and say the differences are reasonably big for this sort of thing.
The correlation is highly significant and, on data so far, you'd expect a notional 100% remain constituency to have turnout up 13%, and a notional 100% leave one to be down 7%. So if they both started on 35% (more or less average turnout) in 2014, Remain Central typically has a 48% turnout, and Brexitville 28% in 2019.
You need to be very cautious about extending out the trend lines like this, of course. It could also be that, for some reason, outnumbered leavers are driving the higher turnout in remainer areas but staying at home where there are lots of them. But it isn't one of those where it's statistically significant but with trivial effect size - it may actually turn out to be reasonably substantial.
> @oldpolitics said: > OK turnout aside, what is the argument against laying Brexit 40%+ in the Betfair market? > > How is 40% possible? That's 41% in GB. > > Lib Dems have done well, seems clear. much under 20% would be a huge miss. > Greens were getting a fair bit of support, 5% would be disappointing. > Con and Lab doing badly but surely at least 25% between the two of them, probably more. > UKIP and ChUK still 5% between them, you'd have to think > SNP and PC should easily account for 3% > That leaves 1% to distribute between random eco-warriors, English Dems, independents, animal welfare, UKEU, Yorkshire Party > > I don't see how any of those numbers other than Brexit can be much lower than that.Surely even with the secrecy a party that had polled 41% wouldn't still be 5-1 to have polled under 30% (though you can of course argue it exactly the other way). > >
I guess there's a fear of substantial numbers of shy Brexit Party voters. Previous Euros having overstated UKIP in the polling might be producing an opposite effect on the pollsters this time too.
Just feels like the sort of bet to avoid, but of you forced me to choose a side I would lay rather than back.
> Dan Hannan isn’t confident about his own seat either. This is a very weird election.
>
> (FWIW I think he’s misguided, he’ll be re-elected on 8% in the SE which is surely not possible to miss? Although he could well be the only one left).
> He won't need 8%. I'd be very surprised if he needed more than 6.5-7% to get elected, given 10 seats and ChUK and UKIP votes being wasted.
>
> Given the SE is likely to be one of the Tories' strongest regions, that would suggest they'd need to be on c. 6% nationwide.
>
> I just don't see it
Last time 8.04% was enough to elect the last MEP for the Lib Dems, but as you say there are likely to be more wasted votes this time. Last time the Conservatives received 30.95% of the vote in the south east, so one quarter of their vote would be enough.
I think that if Hannan has the sense that they are losing around three-quarters of their vote it's probably quite hard to tell the difference between retaining just enough or not enough and so you would not be surprised to see him overdo the scale of the collapse.
I think he thinks he’s probably okay, but is intelligent and aware enough to know that a Tweet saying “Looks like it’s just going to be me then” would not go down very well with the wider party support who have been knocking on doors for the last month.
Tories in single figures in the South East would be truly astonishing.
Which people knocking on which doors? Would really be interested in where there was genuine GOTV activity, good morning leaflet, telephone knock up or doorstep. Standing at polling stations is irrelevant unless you do something with the data
To be fair to him, Dan Hannan has been posting about canvassing non-stop since the local elections. Assuming they were actually knocking on doors, not just turning up to get their photo taken with an MEP, a lot of towns in the SE region have seen supporters out.
There’s been reports from other regions of members and usual supporters sitting this one out though.
> @oldpolitics said: > > @Sunil_Prasannan said: > > > @oldpolitics said: > > > > @NickPalmer said: > > > > A Greek colleague is one of the victims of the voting rights > > > > cockup - she asked about her right to vote some time ago, > > > > and was told by Fleet Council to await a letter to tell her what to do. > > > > > > In Fleet Council's defence, they were abolished in 1974 > > > so being expected to run an election 45 years later must have been quite > > > difficult for them. > > > > http://www.fleet-tc.gov.uk/ > > Is a parish recreated in 2010 with no responsibility for the running of elections. Sandpit is right, it will be Hart DC. I was being flippant, it may well be that locals still call it Fleet Council, half a century after the fact.
I wonder if Swindonians ever referred to Thamesdown Council?
Is everyone writing off Ester McVey. She isn't as right wing as Raab. Hasn't made a habit of offending everyone abroad like Boris. Did the right thing and resigned early on. Just can't see Gove or Hunt. If she comes over well in the hustings she could be the dark horse. Only other relative unknown is Steve Baker but he makes Raab look like a commie.
> @argyllrs said: > Is everyone writing off Ester McVey. She isn't as right wing as Raab. Hasn't made a habit of offending everyone abroad like Boris. Did the right thing and resigned early on. Just can't see Gove or Hunt. If she comes over well in the hustings she could be the dark horse. > Only other relative unknown is Steve Baker but he makes Raab look like a commie.
That may be but in terms of experience and competence she is the lightest of lightweights. Although.... that hasn't stopped most of the front runners.....
Comments
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> >
> > Parris is an unreconciled Remainer who believes in Unicorns just as much as the ERG. He has nothing of value to bring to the conversation.
>
> It may be a forlorn hope to wish for a break out of sanity, but it's not a unicorn.
Its certainly not sanity.
> Quite a few of the runners and riders are regularly shorter for next Prime Minister than for next Conservative leader. I leave the reader to determine how likely that is in reality.
>
> Are you thinking that Corbyn at 40 might be value for next PM, to cover the scenario where Mrs May stays on as a caretaker through an election, as the new Con leader doesn’t have enough votes to win a confidence motion?
The only path I can see is:
Johnson makes it to the final 2, mass defections from the Conservatives, who abstain in a confidence vote, handing the keys to Corbyn.
I would want more than 40 to consider backing that. Simply put, it's never going to happen. There will be no defections if Johnson wins. None at all.
> Nadim Zahawi already talking about withholding payments. Then the EU will cave.
>
> Whilst insisting No Deal would not be acrimonious.
>
> Unicorns being saddled up and down the country.
>
> But of course if there were no deal there would be no payments? Are you suggesting we would get no deal and pay?
>
> We wouldn't even get the bare minimum "lifeboat" deals to keep some semblance of trade flowing with the EU if we won't pay for stuff like pensions.
>
> And I doubt many other countries would be itching to sign anything with us too as we'll have demonstrated a contempt for treaty commitments.
>
> Oh dear, I'm too to tired to explain trade tonight, let alone negotiation. Have fun all.
Japan and Canada have competition clauses in their EU trade deals . The EU does this with many countries . Essentially if the UK walked out on no deal and tried to undercut the EU the clauses would prohibit them doing deals with the UK.
The USA document on what they want from the UK for a deal will horrify even some Tories. And will bomb with the public .
It’s a list of great campaign messages for Labour to bash the Tories with .
> > @Scrapheap_as_was said:
> > > @david_herdson said:
> > > > @JohnO said:
> > > > So who am I missing from pb's Great and Grand Electors (aka Tory party members)? I have:
> > > >
> > > > Richard N
> > > > Big G
> > > > HYUFD
> > > > Tissue Price
> > > > TSE
> > > > Max
> > > > Casino (I think)
> > > > DavidL
> > > > Moi
> > > >
> > > > It's imperative we vote en bloc at the duly appointed time!
> > > >
> > >
> > > [Gently raises hand]
> >
> > Raises hand loudly by also shouting COYS
>
> It would be doing the Tories a favour if every PB’er voted to choose the best candidate, and then the PB Tories agreed to back that person as a bloc. Got to be better than leaving the choice to Tory members, who are the last people seemingly able to make any sort of rational choice.
I am happy to vote, sight unseen, for whomever the above list can agree is our best bet as a country. However, given the (lack of) strength in the candidate list, and the fact that it's most likely a straight binary choice by the time it gets to us, I suspect it'll be a pretty easy decision in the end.
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
>
> > > @SandyRentool said:
>
> > > > @Scott_P said:
>
> > > > https://twitter.com/garius/status/1131949245127364610
>
>
>
> > >
>
> > > Dick Chiltern-Honey-Drizzler
>
> >
>
> > John London Cheese-Knife
>
>
>
> Blank Pentyla Garlic Press
>
> Martin Logan-Swizzle-Stick
John Redwood
> > @Luckyguy1983 said:
> > Nadim Zahawi already talking about withholding payments. Then the EU will cave.
> >
> > Whilst insisting No Deal would not be acrimonious.
> >
> > Unicorns being saddled up and down the country.
> >
> > But of course if there were no deal there would be no payments? Are you suggesting we would get no deal and pay?
>
> The ‘no deal, we don’t pay’ route is the preferred option only of true idiots. If we leave without a deal we will need a thousand and one things agreed with the EU going forward, and they won’t agree even the one without our paying our dues.
Of course if we agree to pay and the EU agrees a thousand and one (or fewer) things without a complex deal then that's not a no deal scenario really. That's just a different deal and that's what we want.
> https://twitter.com/garius/status/1131949245127364610
>
>
>
> James Stenhouse Corkscrew
>
> Good name for a lawyer!
Xander Ypres Zester
> How come so many PB’ers have a favourite utensil?
Generally we are a smart looking bunch and that's because we're fork leaning.
> > @sarissa said:
> > https://twitter.com/garius/status/1131949245127364610
> >
> >
> >
> > James Stenhouse Corkscrew
> >
> > Good name for a lawyer!
>
> Xander Ypres Zester
Edward Heath Corer
> > @nico67 said:
> > If I was Justine Greening I’d be making a quick move to the Lib Dems .
> >
> > She’s toast in Putney if she stays with the Tories.
>
> If I was her, I'd be preparing my leadership bid. I reckon, in a secret ballot, she'd surprise many on the upside.
She'd be welcomed by the Lib Dems.
> Waaaay off topic, but this is so beautifully cringey your brain might turn inside out
>
It's even worse in the full interview.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m00057k4
> Edward Bennett-Masher
Shoo in for the final 2 in my book criminal record notwithstanding.
Wished I'd backed him at 750 when I had the chance. Value gone now.
> > @dixiedean said:
> > > @nico67 said:
> > > If I was Justine Greening I’d be making a quick move to the Lib Dems .
> > >
> > > She’s toast in Putney if she stays with the Tories.
> >
> > If I was her, I'd be preparing my leadership bid. I reckon, in a secret ballot, she'd surprise many on the upside.
>
> She'd be welcomed by the Lib Dems.
If you were a member of a party, and an MP defected to it after your leader announced he was quitting, then that defector stood for the leadership immediately... would you vote for them?
I wouldn't. Not in 100 years. No matter whether I liked them or not.
> Waaaay off topic, but this is so beautifully cringey your brain might turn inside out
>
> https://twitter.com/thymetikon/status/1131702577878503425
Utterly brilliant.
Who is the other person talking to her???
> > @Luckyguy1983 said:
> > Nadim Zahawi already talking about withholding payments. Then the EU will cave.
> >
> > Whilst insisting No Deal would not be acrimonious.
> >
> > Unicorns being saddled up and down the country.
> >
> > But of course if there were no deal there would be no payments? Are you suggesting we would get no deal and pay?
> >
> > We wouldn't even get the bare minimum "lifeboat" deals to keep some semblance of trade flowing with the EU if we won't pay for stuff like pensions.
> >
> > And I doubt many other countries would be itching to sign anything with us too as we'll have demonstrated a contempt for treaty commitments.
> >
> > Oh dear, I'm too to tired to explain trade tonight, let alone negotiation. Have fun all.
>
> Japan and Canada have competition clauses in their EU trade deals . The EU does this with many countries . Essentially if the UK walked out on no deal and tried to undercut the EU the clauses would prohibit them doing deals with the UK.
>
> The USA document on what they want from the UK for a deal will horrify even some Tories. And will bomb with the public .
>
> It’s a list of great campaign messages for Labour to bash the Tories with .
I thought the clauses were that if they gave a better deal or sector deals to another country then this had to be automatically given to the EU. Nothing to stop them doing deals with us.
Also I think you should pay attention to what Trump is asking of the USA to stop the tariffs on cars. It is full access to the EU for clorinated chicken, hormone beef and everything else their food producers do.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7067929/At-eight-people-hurt-parcel-bomb-explodes-Lyon.html
> If I was Justine Greening I’d be making a quick move to the Lib Dems .
>
> She’s toast in Putney if she stays with the Tories.
Are you really expecting the LibDems to win Putney ?
https://www.bcpcouncil.gov.uk/Council-and-Democratic/Elections-and-voting/elections-voting-docs/euro-elections/SW-Region-Verification-Turnout-Report.pdf
> Just on the US, it's worth remembering that any UK-US trade deal needs to go through the House of Representatives. If we're seen to have f*cked the Irish (irrespective of the rights and wrongs), then it is by no means clear that a trade deal would pass.
It would not pass. It's as simple as that. The Democrats have made that clear.
https://www.euronews.com/2019/04/18/no-uk-us-trade-deal-if-brexit-risks-good-friday-agreement-pelosi-tells-irish-lawmakers
I expected a lot more apathy both there and in the rest of the UK.
The story so far seems to be one of better turnouts throughout England and Wales .
Nothing spectacular as a whole . Remain areas seems to be doing better but there are still a lot of councils to report .
> Is there a source for data relating to the 2014 EU election results by council area? I need a Sunday night spreadsheet!
A download with the data is on this page:
https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/RP14-32
> > @TudorRose said:
> > Is there a source for data relating to the 2014 EU election results by council area? I need a Sunday night spreadsheet!
>
> A download with the data is on this page:
>
> https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/RP14-32
Fantastic; thanks for such a quick reply.
> Full turnout figures now available for the South West region. Overall turnout is 40.51%.
>
> https://www.bcpcouncil.gov.uk/Council-and-Democratic/Elections-and-voting/elections-voting-docs/euro-elections/SW-Region-Verification-Turnout-Report.pdf
I'm surprised turnout is so low in Gibraltar.
yours, giles sunningdale bottle-opener
> > @AndyJS said:
> > > @TudorRose said:
> > > Is there a source for data relating to the 2014 EU election results by council area? I need a Sunday night spreadsheet!
> >
> > A download with the data is on this page:
> >
> > https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/RP14-32
>
> Fantastic; thanks for such a quick reply.
Actually, I'm not sure whether that download has the raw figures. It might just have the percentages. There's definitely a similar document that has the actual voting figures floating around somewhere if it doesn't.
> > @nico67 said:
> > If I was Justine Greening I’d be making a quick move to the Lib Dems .
> >
> > She’s toast in Putney if she stays with the Tories.
>
> Are you really expecting the LibDems to win Putney ?
It depends on what Labour does over the next few years but Putney is a very high Remain area . Greening only just survived the last time because she’s quite popular and pro EU . But a Tory no deal would sink her there .
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.158459621
> Just on the US, it's worth remembering that any UK-US trade deal needs to go through the House of Representatives. If we're seen to have f*cked the Irish (irrespective of the rights and wrongs), then it is by no means clear that a trade deal would pass.
If that were to be the case, it is by no means clear there would be any discussions of a trade deal.
https://twitter.com/dmcbfs/status/1131971673589256194?s=20
1. recent investigation:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-break-rules-financial-declaration-a8859736.html
> Full turnout figures now available for the South West region. Overall turnout is 40.51%.
>
> https://www.bcpcouncil.gov.uk/Council-and-Democratic/Elections-and-voting/elections-voting-docs/euro-elections/SW-Region-Verification-Turnout-Report.pdf
Much of a muchness, floating around the 40% mark.
> > @another_richard said:
> > > @nico67 said:
> > > If I was Justine Greening I’d be making a quick move to the Lib Dems .
> > >
> > > She’s toast in Putney if she stays with the Tories.
> >
> > Are you really expecting the LibDems to win Putney ?
>
> It depends on what Labour does over the next few years but Putney is a very high Remain area . Greening only just survived the last time because she’s quite popular and pro EU . But a Tory no deal would sink her there .
Brexit will either be a success or a failure.
If its a success the Conservatives will win Putney.
If its a failure Labour will win Putney.
> > @Slackbladder said:
>
> > > @CarlottaVance said:
>
> > > I got Matt Hancock......no, me neither:
>
> > >
>
> > > https://www.buzzfeed.com/alanwhite/which-tory-leader-are-you
>
> >
>
> > I got Amber Rudd!
>
>
>
> so did I
>
> I got Dominic Raab. I don't know anything about him though I suspect it does not speak well of me. Incidentally, I worked out the other day that the bloke in the jacket, jeans and white T who looked awful was Matt Hancock. Where do they get them?
I suspect there is a website selling lightweight ToryBoys.
Perhaps Raab and Hancock came on a BOGOF special offer.
Pause.
Feels very old...
> Just on the US, it's worth remembering that any UK-US trade deal needs to go through the House of Representatives. If we're seen to have f*cked the Irish (irrespective of the rights and wrongs), then it is by no means clear that a trade deal would pass.
Its odd that there is still the Oirish nostalgia in the USA to a country which does jackshit for them.
Perhaps we should kick the US military out of Diego Garcia and tell them to relocate elsewhere.
> > @AndyJS said:
> > Full turnout figures now available for the South West region. Overall turnout is 40.51%.
> >
> > https://www.bcpcouncil.gov.uk/Council-and-Democratic/Elections-and-voting/elections-voting-docs/euro-elections/SW-Region-Verification-Turnout-Report.pdf
>
> Much of a muchness, floating around the 40% mark.
Great graphics here, and in the rest of this twitter thread. Looks good for Remain.
https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1131981168134508545?s=19
> https://twitter.com/mjrharris/status/1131946176654249984?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=http://vote-2012.proboards.com/posts/recent
My husband mentioned this little rumour a bit earlier. Apparently, there's also been differential turnout, with (on average) more voters bothering to go to the polls in Remainian areas, and actual drops in some very Brexity parts.
The differences aren't gargantuan , but possibly enough to suggest that the Brexit Party may do slightly worse, and the Lib Dems and Greens slightly better, than might otherwise have been the case?
Neville Wickham Saucepan
Now, from memory, he was a compatriot of Sir Waldron Smithers and an early member of the ERG (Empire Reconquest Group) which advocated the invasion of Canada, Australia, New Zealand, India and more controversially the United States.
His son, Algernon Wickham Saucepan, finished third in the 1973 Upper Class Twit of the Year contest.
regards,
Andrew Ellis Santoku
So the Boris Bandwagon has already started a-rollin'. Boris, as Prime Minister, will face exactly the same issues that bedevilled and bamboozled May. I don't see why his attempts to play both ends against the middle will be any more successful than hers but he seems determined to take us out of the EU on 31/10 whether via the WA or not.
I look forward to his verbal dexterity under some hopefully probing questions on this.
> It's all a complete clusterfeck, and I have enough shite going on without worrying which wank politicians are trying to climb the greasy pole.
> regards,
> Andrew Ellis Santoku
“At a time like this we need a leader who is able to reach out across party lines.
Regards,
Max Green-Coddler”
I think the UK should take a leaf.
Which is interesting because I bet on Jeremy Hunt to be next PM in 2017.
> > @thecommissioner said:
> > > @AndyJS said:
> > > Full turnout figures now available for the South West region. Overall turnout is 40.51%.
> > >
> > > https://www.bcpcouncil.gov.uk/Council-and-Democratic/Elections-and-voting/elections-voting-docs/euro-elections/SW-Region-Verification-Turnout-Report.pdf
> >
> > Much of a muchness, floating around the 40% mark.
>
> Great graphics here, and in the rest of this twitter thread. Looks good for Remain.
>
> https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1131981168134508545?s=19
I'm not sure that measuring change in turnout is a particularly useful metric,especially as the yardstick was 2014.
I saw a graph earlier saying something similar, yet the turnout (with the odd exception) was pretty much within the same range,
I expect we'll see the same Leave and Remain concentrations that we have for a few years now.
Anecdotes from today on who voted are just the same as yesterday in my work circle. The younger people (outskirts of London) never bothered. One older voter put their vote in weeks ago.
And there was a fair smattering of sympathy for May - 'impossible job', 'scapegoat'.
> > @ah009 said:
> > > @sarissa said:
> > > https://twitter.com/garius/status/1131949245127364610
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > James Stenhouse Corkscrew
> > >
> > > Good name for a lawyer!
> >
> > Xander Ypres Zester
>
> Edward Heath Corer
John Balmoral Corkscrew
> > @Slackbladder said:
>
> > > @CarlottaVance said:
>
> > > I got Matt Hancock......no, me neither:
>
> > >
>
> > > https://www.buzzfeed.com/alanwhite/which-tory-leader-are-you
>
> >
>
> > I got Amber Rudd!
>
>
>
> so did I
>
> I got Dominic Raab. I don't know anything about him though I suspect it does not speak well of me. Incidentally, I worked out the other day that the bloke in the jacket, jeans and white T who looked awful was Matt Hancock. Where do they get them?
I think Matt Hancock comes across as a sly, untrustworthy oik with no personality or charisma. He would likely be worse than May as PM...
> > @NorthofStoke said:
> > > @ah009 said:
> > > > @sarissa said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/garius/status/1131949245127364610
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > James Stenhouse Corkscrew
> > > >
> > > > Good name for a lawyer!
> > >
> > > Xander Ypres Zester
> >
> > Edward Heath Corer
>
> John Balmoral Corkscrew
Stuart Blossomfield-Tongs
>
> I'm not sure that measuring change in turnout is a particularly useful metric,especially as the yardstick was 2014.
>
It seems like quite a good way of predicting differential turnout in this case. If Remainers were more likely to vote, you would expect the turnout to be up by more in the places where there are more Remainers.
Just a well it wasn't a game involving car keys.
(For Amber's sake!)
> > @NorthofStoke said:
> > > @ah009 said:
> > > > @sarissa said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/garius/status/1131949245127364610
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > James Stenhouse Corkscrew
> > > >
> > > > Good name for a lawyer!
> > >
> > > Xander Ypres Zester
> >
> > Edward Heath Corer
>
> John Balmoral Corkscrew
Christopher Nuthall-Grater
> @Sandpit said:
> Dan Hannan isn’t confident about his own seat either. This is a very weird election.
>
> (FWIW I think he’s misguided, he’ll be re-elected on 8% in the SE which is surely not possible to miss? Although he could well be the only one left).
>
> https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1131669660385062912
>
>
> ++++++++++++++++++++++
>
> He won't need 8%. I'd be very surprised if he needed more than 6.5-7% to get elected, given 10 seats and ChUK and UKIP votes being wasted.
>
> Given the SE is likely to be one of the Tories' strongest regions, that would suggest they'd need to be on c. 6% nationwide.
>
> I just don't see it
Last time 8.04% was enough to elect the last MEP for the Lib Dems, but as you say there are likely to be more wasted votes this time. Last time the Conservatives received 30.95% of the vote in the south east, so one quarter of their vote would be enough.
I think that if Hannan has the sense that they are losing around three-quarters of their vote it's probably quite hard to tell the difference between retaining just enough or not enough and so you would not be surprised to see him overdo the scale of the collapse.
> > @Foxy said:
> > > @thecommissioner said:
> > > > @AndyJS said:
> > > > Full turnout figures now available for the South West region. Overall turnout is 40.51%.
> > > >
> > > > https://www.bcpcouncil.gov.uk/Council-and-Democratic/Elections-and-voting/elections-voting-docs/euro-elections/SW-Region-Verification-Turnout-Report.pdf
> > >
> > > Much of a muchness, floating around the 40% mark.
> >
> > Great graphics here, and in the rest of this twitter thread. Looks good for Remain.
> >
> > https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1131981168134508545?s=19
>
> I'm not sure that measuring change in turnout is a particularly useful metric,especially as the yardstick was 2014.
>
> I saw a graph earlier saying something similar, yet the turnout (with the odd exception) was pretty much within the same range,
> I expect we'll see the same Leave and Remain concentrations that we have for a few years now.
>
> Anecdotes from today on who voted are just the same as yesterday in my work circle. The younger people (outskirts of London) never bothered. One older voter put their vote in weeks ago.
>
> And there was a fair smattering of sympathy for May - 'impossible job', 'scapegoat'.
This is another interesting one
https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1131981759523053569?s=19
> I think Andrew Ellis Citrus-Reamer would be a fine Tory PM
I'd vote for him.
So says Ilke Merle Magimix (my son)
There was no question of the letter being delayed or anything - Fleet simply didn't bother to tell the affected voters at all, and are unapologetic about it. (This is not a party point - I have no idea how she votes.)
> > @Omnium said:
> > > @NorthofStoke said:
> > > > @ah009 said:
> > > > > @sarissa said:
> > > > > https://twitter.com/garius/status/1131949245127364610
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > James Stenhouse Corkscrew
> > > > >
> > > > > Good name for a lawyer!
> > > >
> > > > Xander Ypres Zester
> > >
> > > Edward Heath Corer
> >
> > John Balmoral Corkscrew
>
> Christopher Nuthall-Grater
Robert Redford Orange-Squeezer.
Sounds a bit serial-killerish, but that still makes him preferable to Boris.
Each to their own, I guess.
Tories in single figures in the South East would be truly astonishing.
> > @MarqueeMark said:
> > > @Omnium said:
> > > > @NorthofStoke said:
> > > > > @ah009 said:
> > > > > > @sarissa said:
> > > > > > https://twitter.com/garius/status/1131949245127364610
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > James Stenhouse Corkscrew
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Good name for a lawyer!
> > > > >
> > > > > Xander Ypres Zester
> > > >
> > > > Edward Heath Corer
> > >
> > > John Balmoral Corkscrew
> >
> > Christopher Nuthall-Grater
>
> Robert Redford Orange-Squeezer.
>
> Sounds a bit serial-killerish, but that still makes him preferable to Boris.
>
>
My wife could actually be Mary Butthole Nutcracker. A serious leader for serious times.
> A Greek colleague is one of the victims of the voting rights
> cockup - she asked about her right to vote some time ago,
> and was told by Fleet Council to await a letter to tell her what to do.
In Fleet Council's defence, they were abolished in 1974 so being expected to run an election 45 years later must have been quite difficult for them.
> > @NickPalmer said:
> > A Greek colleague is one of the victims of the voting rights
> > cockup - she asked about her right to vote some time ago,
> > and was told by Fleet Council to await a letter to tell her what to do.
>
> In Fleet Council's defence, they were abolished in 1974 so being expected to run an election 45 years later must have been quite difficult for them.
http://www.fleet-tc.gov.uk/
Would really be interested in where there was genuine GOTV activity, good morning leaflet, telephone knock up or doorstep. Standing at polling stations is irrelevant unless you do something with the data
How is 40% possible? That's 41% in GB.
Lib Dems have done well, seems clear. much under 20% would be a huge miss.
Greens were getting a fair bit of support, 5% would be disappointing.
Con and Lab doing badly but surely at least 25% between the two of them, probably more.
UKIP and ChUK still 5% between them, you'd have to think
SNP and PC should easily account for 3%
That leaves 1% to distribute between random eco-warriors, English Dems, independents, animal welfare, UKEU, Yorkshire Party
I don't see how any of those numbers other than Brexit can be much lower than that.Surely even with the secrecy a party that had polled 41% wouldn't still be 5-1 to have polled under 30% (though you can of course argue it exactly the other way).
Signed J (A) W
> > @oldpolitics said:
> > > @NickPalmer said:
> > > A Greek colleague is one of the victims of the voting rights
> > > cockup - she asked about her right to vote some time ago,
> > > and was told by Fleet Council to await a letter to tell her what to do.
> >
> > In Fleet Council's defence, they were abolished in 1974
> > so being expected to run an election 45 years later must have been quite
> > difficult for them.
>
> http://www.fleet-tc.gov.uk/
Is a parish recreated in 2010 with no responsibility for the running of elections. Sandpit is right, it will be Hart DC. I was being flippant, it may well be that locals still call it Fleet Council, half a century after the fact.
> 45.14% turnout in Northern Ireland, down from 51.8% last time
A DUP enthusiasm gap?
> Agamemnon Eaton Skewer
>
> Signed J (A) W
I'd be too scared to NOT vote for you!
> > @Andrew said:
> > > @MarqueeMark said:
> > > > @Omnium said:
> > > > > @NorthofStoke said:
> > > > > > @ah009 said:
> > > > > > > @sarissa said:
> > > > > > > https://twitter.com/garius/status/1131949245127364610
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > James Stenhouse Corkscrew
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Good name for a lawyer!
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Xander Ypres Zester
> > > > >
> > > > > Edward Heath Corer
> > > >
> > > > John Balmoral Corkscrew
> > >
> > > Christopher Nuthall-Grater
> >
> > Robert Redford Orange-Squeezer.
> >
> > Sounds a bit serial-killerish, but that still makes him preferable to Boris.
> >
> >
>
> My wife could actually be Mary Butthole Nutcracker. A serious leader for serious times.
Bow down for Peter Garden Mezzaluna
> John Redwood on Sky is saying he believes the economy has been deliberately slowed by the treasury and we need an injection of public spending.
Redwood is batshit crazy, so we can safely ignore him.
> > @AndyJS said:
> > https://twitter.com/mjrharris/status/1131946176654249984?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=http://vote-2012.proboards.com/posts/recent
>
> My husband mentioned this little rumour a bit earlier. Apparently, there's also been differential turnout, with (on average) more voters bothering to go to the polls in Remainian areas, and actual drops in some very Brexity parts.
>
> The differences aren't gargantuan , but possibly enough to suggest that the Brexit Party may do slightly worse, and the Lib Dems and Greens slightly better, than might otherwise have been the case?
I'd even stick my neck out and say the differences are reasonably big for this sort of thing.
The correlation is highly significant and, on data so far, you'd expect a notional 100% remain constituency to have turnout up 13%, and a notional 100% leave one to be down 7%. So if they both started on 35% (more or less average turnout) in 2014, Remain Central typically has a 48% turnout, and Brexitville 28% in 2019.
You need to be very cautious about extending out the trend lines like this, of course. It could also be that, for some reason, outnumbered leavers are driving the higher turnout in remainer areas but staying at home where there are lots of them. But it isn't one of those where it's statistically significant but with trivial effect size - it may actually turn out to be reasonably substantial.
> OK turnout aside, what is the argument against laying Brexit 40%+ in the Betfair market?
>
> How is 40% possible? That's 41% in GB.
>
> Lib Dems have done well, seems clear. much under 20% would be a huge miss.
> Greens were getting a fair bit of support, 5% would be disappointing.
> Con and Lab doing badly but surely at least 25% between the two of them, probably more.
> UKIP and ChUK still 5% between them, you'd have to think
> SNP and PC should easily account for 3%
> That leaves 1% to distribute between random eco-warriors, English Dems, independents, animal welfare, UKEU, Yorkshire Party
>
> I don't see how any of those numbers other than Brexit can be much lower than that.Surely even with the secrecy a party that had polled 41% wouldn't still be 5-1 to have polled under 30% (though you can of course argue it exactly the other way).
>
>
I guess there's a fear of substantial numbers of shy Brexit Party voters. Previous Euros having overstated UKIP in the polling might be producing an opposite effect on the pollsters this time too.
Just feels like the sort of bet to avoid, but of you forced me to choose a side I would lay rather than back.
There’s been reports from other regions of members and usual supporters sitting this one out though.
> > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
> > > @oldpolitics said:
> > > > @NickPalmer said:
> > > > A Greek colleague is one of the victims of the voting rights
> > > > cockup - she asked about her right to vote some time ago,
> > > > and was told by Fleet Council to await a letter to tell her what to do.
> > >
> > > In Fleet Council's defence, they were abolished in 1974
> > > so being expected to run an election 45 years later must have been quite
> > > difficult for them.
> >
> > http://www.fleet-tc.gov.uk/
>
> Is a parish recreated in 2010 with no responsibility for the running of elections. Sandpit is right, it will be Hart DC. I was being flippant, it may well be that locals still call it Fleet Council, half a century after the fact.
I wonder if Swindonians ever referred to Thamesdown Council?
Only other relative unknown is Steve Baker but he makes Raab look like a commie.
> Is everyone writing off Ester McVey. She isn't as right wing as Raab. Hasn't made a habit of offending everyone abroad like Boris. Did the right thing and resigned early on. Just can't see Gove or Hunt. If she comes over well in the hustings she could be the dark horse.
> Only other relative unknown is Steve Baker but he makes Raab look like a commie.
That may be but in terms of experience and competence she is the lightest of lightweights. Although.... that hasn't stopped most of the front runners.....
> > @JackW said:
> > Agamemnon Eaton Skewer
> >
> > Signed J (A) W
>
> I'd be too scared to NOT vote for you!
............................................................
Precisely ....
> > @twistedfirestopper3 said:
> > > @Andrew said:
> > > > @MarqueeMark said:
> > > > > @Omnium said:
> > > > > > @NorthofStoke said:
> > > > > > > @ah009 said:
> > > > > > > > @sarissa said:
> > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/garius/status/1131949245127364610
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > James Stenhouse Corkscrew
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Good name for a lawyer!
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Xander Ypres Zester
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Edward Heath Corer
> > > > >
> > > > > John Balmoral Corkscrew
> > > >
> > > > Christopher Nuthall-Grater
> > >
> > > Robert Redford Orange-Squeezer.
> > >
> > > Sounds a bit serial-killerish, but that still makes him preferable to Boris.
> > >
> > >
> >
> > My wife could actually be Mary Butthole Nutcracker. A serious leader for serious times.
>
> Bow down for Peter Garden Mezzaluna
Tim 28th October-Knife