> @Richard_Nabavi said: > US commentators often talk about the 'lanes' by which candidates can hope to win a party nomination, for example the 'evangelical' or 'libertarian' or 'moderate' lanes in a Republican nomination contest. The basic idea is that your chance is better if you can dominate one or more lanes, rather than being crowded in with a load of other contenders selling the same thing. It's not the whole story but it can be a useful way of looking at things. > > In this contest, I don't see what Raab's 'lane' is. He's not extreme enough to run in the 'purist' lane, having voted for the deal in the final vote. He's crowded out by Boris in the 'leave means leave even without a deal' lane. He's not in the 'moderate pragmatist', ' charismatic winner' or 'stop Boris' lanes. > > The same is true of a number of other potential contenders. Although it's a big field, the number of realistic candidates is quite short, I think; as things stand, Boris, Leadsom, and Hunt look most likely to me, in that order, with Boris well ahead unless he screws up (which admittedly is quite likely, and may already have happened with his Oct 31st pledge).
Of course the lane which is empty is the Remainer lane. It would take a brave person, and is of course doomed amongst the membership. However, if neither Hammond nor Rudd go for it, an enterprising young soul could make the first four at least, and land a plum Cabinet post. There are plenty of Tory MPs who, privately at least, wish Brexit would go away.
if you believe the Johnson/Rudd joint ticket idea then Paddys are 8/1 that she is next chancellor after Hammond.
To make the last two they go:
Johnson 4/11 (awful price I think. better to back him to win if you think he goes to the membership) Raab 4/5 Hunt 3/1 Leadsom 5/1 Gove 11/2 Stewart 9/1 Javid 11/1 Mordaunt 12/1
> @oxfordsimon said: > > @malcolmg said: > > > > > May has got her deserved comeuppance, anyone who has sympathy for her is not right in the head or evil. > > That says a lot more about you and your attitudes than anything else.
As Dr Foxy pointed out yesterday, I lay Windrush against Theresa May, not Brexit. Depriving ordinary and vulnerable people of their citizenship and deporting them to a country they don't know to meet a statistical target was immoral.
Theresa May gave a thoughtful speech during the referendum about the problems of Brexit, which apply just as much now as before the vote. Aiming to deliver the vote is no shame even if the project is doomed.
I will be absolutely fascinated to read May's memoirs, if they're written with any honesty. By which I don't mean self-criticism - she could write 300 pages of "Exactly Why I Was Always Right" and I'd want to read it - but rather, actually letting on what she was thinking.
Over the past three years, very little of the inner May has been let out. She has stood at that sodding lectern how many times and repeated that "nothing has changed". She has mouthed platitudinous slogans like "Brexit means Brexit", which means nothing. It is remarkable how we still don't really know this person whose every act has been microscopically examined over and over again.
I never voted for her, but if her memoirs tell us something about why she did what she did, I will be first in the queue to buy them.
I think we shall learn more about why she did what she did from Tim Shipman or guesswork. Sadly I think there's lots of evidence that there isn't a particularly strategic or interesting mind in there. I have never heard her indicate or imply from a speech that she had read a book. Her principles seem real but shallow. I'm glad you will read her memoirs, as along with John Crace that will make two of you. I am looking forward to his review and only wish that Auberon Waugh were still alive to do the same
> World capital of meaningless virtue signalling turns out for meaningless virtue signalling shock.
>
>
What do you mean "virtue signalling" ?
It's a vapid alt-right cliche, useful only as a bellend alert on those who use it.
On the contrary, virtue signalling is a very useful phrase because to my mind it can be used quite effectively for left and right - it originated with the right, but it just depends which virtues one is trying to signal. Like how 'useful idiots' is a phrase which can be used more widely than its original intended purpose.
> @RobD said: > > @AndyJS said: > > > @El_Capitano said: > > > I will be absolutely fascinated to read May's memoirs, if they're written with any honesty. By which I don't mean self-criticism - she could write 300 pages of "Exactly Why I Was Always Right" and I'd want to read it - but rather, actually letting on what she was thinking. > > > > > > Over the past three years, very little of the inner May has been let out. She has stood at that sodding lectern how many times and repeated that "nothing has changed". She has mouthed platitudinous slogans like "Brexit means Brexit", which means nothing. It is remarkable how we still don't really know this person whose every act has been microscopically examined over and over again. > > > > > > I never voted for her, but if her memoirs tell us something about why she did what she did, I will be first in the queue to buy them. > > > > "How to blow a 25% poll lead in 4 weeks against Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell." > > Hindsight is a wonderful thing. Had they known that would have happened, the manifesto would have surely been steady as she goes, rather than trying to challenge a deeply emotive topic.
The Australian Labor Party has just learnt the same lesson. Don't put anything bold or radical in your manifesto if you want to win an election.
That does look promising for Remain. What if Remain has a majority? What does that do to the Tory leadership contest?
Make them more certain they need to no deal. They've already set the course, put the engines on maximum and destroyed the rudder, it doesn't matter what else happens now.
> @TGOHF said: > I think PM Boris or Gove is only going to exacerbate this problem > > https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/05/brexit-and-the-great-liberal-crack-up/ > > "This is unfamiliar territory and many diehard Remainers don’t make a case for the EU but a case against the people who are against it. They are anti-anti-Europeans bewildered by their estrangement from the reassuring political certainties shoved aside by Brexit. As they stumble around, bellowing one minute and weeping the next, liberals are every middle-aged man who isn’t handling the divorce well. She’s turned the C2s, Ds and Es against us."
I daresay the Zionist pie eater is having a wee crack up of his own.
> The Swiss model, of course, includes FoM. I don't see Boris having the slightest problem with FoM, but getting it past the ultras would be the difficult bit.
Has anyone ever bothered to do any analysis of the individual ultras to understand whether their Euroscepticism is immigration based or institutional based. If the former then you are right but all the arguments I have seen from them seem to revolve around separation from the institutions and EU law. Hence their opposition to the Customs Union and Single Market.
Is it possible that a route that prioritised separation from the institutions over immigration controls - effectively the Swiss Model - might appeal more to them than May's model of restricting migration over all other considerations?
You may well have been right, in the weeks after the referendum, even after GE2017 - indeed then might have been best time to have gone for the Swiss model. Now, though, I think the Brexiteer Overton window has shifted so far that it would be seen as almost as much a "betrayal" as revocation.
Could remainer MPs conspire to put Boris to the ballot with a remainer candidate that will obviously lose, but be able to draw the discussion away from who will be more brexit. Thus, easier for Boris to gradually pivot away and betray the cause.
> @david_herdson said: > > @JohnO said: > > So who am I missing from pb's Great and Grand Electors (aka Tory party members)? I have: > > > > Richard N > > Big G > > HYUFD > > Tissue Price > > TSE > > Max > > Casino (I think) > > DavidL > > Moi > > > > It's imperative we vote en bloc at the duly appointed time! > > > > [Gently raises hand]
Could remainer MPs conspire to put Boris to the ballot with a remainer candidate that will obviously lose, but be able to draw the discussion away from who will be more brexit. Thus, easier for Boris to gradually pivot away and betray the cause.
I have seen it suggested elsewhere that BoZo's self-imposed red line today is in fact designed to lose him the leadership (again), so next time he can swoop in as saviour of the party...
I Just heard Graham Brady AKA 'Thicko' is thinking of standing. What's happened to the men in grey suits or is it white coats? Somebody please stop him. All the country needs at this time is IDS Mk11
How does Boris get away with this stuff? Why do they seem so convinced he will give them what they want? Why is he allowed to back the deal, especially when doing so inthe manner he did was very stupid, since it was him admitting that the many thousands of times he was told it might be no deal or no Brexit were right.
> @Scrapheap_as_was said: > > @david_herdson said: > > > @JohnO said: > > > So who am I missing from pb's Great and Grand Electors (aka Tory party members)? I have: > > > > > > Richard N > > > Big G > > > HYUFD > > > Tissue Price > > > TSE > > > Max > > > Casino (I think) > > > DavidL > > > Moi > > > > > > It's imperative we vote en bloc at the duly appointed time! > > > > > > > [Gently raises hand] > > Raises hand loudly by also shouting COYS
It would be doing the Tories a favour if every PB’er voted to choose the best candidate, and then the PB Tories agreed to back that person as a bloc. Got to be better than leaving the choice to Tory members, who are the last people seemingly able to make any sort of rational choice.
> @dixiedean said: > > @Richard_Nabavi said: > > US commentators often talk about the 'lanes' by which candidates can hope to win a party nomination, for example the 'evangelical' or 'libertarian' or 'moderate' lanes in a Republican nomination contest. The basic idea is that your chance is better if you can dominate one or more lanes, rather than being crowded in with a load of other contenders selling the same thing. It's not the whole story but it can be a useful way of looking at things. > > > > In this contest, I don't see what Raab's 'lane' is. He's not extreme enough to run in the 'purist' lane, having voted for the deal in the final vote. He's crowded out by Boris in the 'leave means leave even without a deal' lane. He's not in the 'moderate pragmatist', ' charismatic winner' or 'stop Boris' lanes. > > > > The same is true of a number of other potential contenders. Although it's a big field, the number of realistic candidates is quite short, I think; as things stand, Boris, Leadsom, and Hunt look most likely to me, in that order, with Boris well ahead unless he screws up (which admittedly is quite likely, and may already have happened with his Oct 31st pledge). > > Of course the lane which is empty is the Remainer lane. It would take a brave person, and is of course doomed amongst the membership. However, if neither Hammond nor Rudd go for it, an enterprising young soul could make the first four at least, and land a plum Cabinet post. > There are plenty of Tory MPs who, privately at least, wish Brexit would go away.
That lane is Rory Stewart's. Whilst is he is for deal rather than remain, it is clear he would accept any deal that can get through parliament. Nearly all remain Tory MPs would accept that deal to move past Brexit.
According to Guido Steve Baker actually thinks he should be PM, and at least one MP thinks the same. Hope Guido's just joking but I have a horrible feeling he isn't.
> @algarkirk said: > Guido has a spreadsheet showing which Tory MPs are backing each candidate. I don't know how reliable it is, but there's a link to it here: > > > > https://order-order.com/2019/05/24/no-backers-yet-penny-rory-brady/ > > According to Guido Steve Baker actually thinks he should be PM, and at least one MP thinks the same. Hope Guido's just joking but I have a horrible feeling he isn't.
Step forward the ridiculous Private Francois as the one MP supporting Baker so far... he's a walking talking parody.
> @algarkirk said: > Guido has a spreadsheet showing which Tory MPs are backing each candidate. I don't know how reliable it is, but there's a link to it here: > > > > https://order-order.com/2019/05/24/no-backers-yet-penny-rory-brady/ > > According to Guido Steve Baker actually thinks he should be PM, and at least one MP thinks the same. Hope Guido's just joking but I have a horrible feeling he isn't.
Heard Francois backing Baker earlier today and worse still heard Baker saying he had received lots of support to stand
You got: Dominic Raab You're a dark horse. A very, very dark horse. A lot of people think you're the man to unlock Brexit. A lot of other people think you might bring the country to its knees. And where are the people who are most terrified of you? Brussels.
> @kle4 said: > https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1131902988820406273 > > > > How does Boris get away with this stuff? Why do they seem so convinced he will give them what they want? Why is he allowed to back the deal, especially when doing so inthe manner he did was very stupid, since it was him admitting that the many thousands of times he was told it might be no deal or no Brexit were right.
They can't count and don't play chess. What do they do at Eton these days?
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @algarkirk said: > > Guido has a spreadsheet showing which Tory MPs are backing each candidate. I don't know how reliable it is, but there's a link to it here: > > > > > > > > https://order-order.com/2019/05/24/no-backers-yet-penny-rory-brady/ > > > > According to Guido Steve Baker actually thinks he should be PM, and at least one MP thinks the same. Hope Guido's just joking but I have a horrible feeling he isn't. > > Heard Francois backing Baker earlier today and worse still heard Baker saying he had received lots of support to stand > > They are made for each other
Surely some nefarious foreign secret service has them as deep plants?
Nadim Zahawi already talking about withholding payments. Then the EU will cave. Whilst insisting No Deal would not be acrimonious. Unicorns being saddled up and down the country.
> @Richard_Nabavi said: > > @Pulpstar said: > > These extra remainers aren't heading out for Corbyn are they ? > > No, the LibDems are going to do very well indeed I think. > > Mind you, I suspect Jo Swinson will be quite voter-repellent, so it might not last.
Why ? She seems popular up in Mulguye. With the Tories about to embark on another failing and betraying soft Brexit project and Corbyn being well Corbyn why can't she do well ?
> @Richard_Nabavi said: > > @Pulpstar said: > > These extra remainers aren't heading out for Corbyn are they ? > > No, the LibDems are going to do very well indeed I think. > > Mind you, I suspect Jo Swinson will be quite voter-repellent, so it might not last.
> @TheWhiteRabbit said: > > @AndyJS said: > > > @Richard_Nabavi said: > > > Guido has a spreadsheet showing which Tory MPs are backing each candidate. I don't know how reliable it is, but there's a link to it here: > > > > > > https://order-order.com/2019/05/24/no-backers-yet-penny-rory-brady/ > > > > > > > > > > There's no such thing as too many spreadsheets. > > The Mayites/softer side of the party not doing too badly. But yo see how badly it needs the Raab/Boris split.
Well Boris has tied up the fruitcake vote.....Bone Rees Mogg Dorries Rosindell Goldsmith Mercer.....
> @Roger said: > > @nico67 said: > > If I was Justine Greening I’d be making a quick move to the Lib Dems . > > > > She’s toast in Putney if she stays with the Tories. > > She's headed for the Tiggers
After Sunday night she might want to have a rethink?
> @Pulpstar said: > > @Richard_Nabavi said: > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > These extra remainers aren't heading out for Corbyn are they ? > > > > No, the LibDems are going to do very well indeed I think. > > > > Mind you, I suspect Jo Swinson will be quite voter-repellent, so it might not last. > > Why ? She seems popular up in Mulguye. With the Tories about to embark on another failing and betraying soft Brexit project and Corbyn being well Corbyn why can't she do well ?
As a LibDem I am not convinced that Jo is a great prospect. Although if the Tories pick a man and Corbyn sticks around, having a female leader would at least give the party some differentiation. And almost guarantee that Labour is pressured into Corbyn’s replacement being a woman.
> @Roger said: > > @nico67 said: > > If I was Justine Greening I’d be making a quick move to the Lib Dems . > > > > She’s toast in Putney if she stays with the Tories. > > She's headed for the Tiggers
> > US commentators often talk about the 'lanes' by which candidates can hope to win a party nomination, for example the 'evangelical' or 'libertarian' or 'moderate' lanes in a Republican nomination contest. The basic idea is that your chance is better if you can dominate one or more lanes, rather than being crowded in with a load of other contenders selling the same thing. It's not the whole story but it can be a useful way of looking at things.
> >
> > In this contest, I don't see what Raab's 'lane' is. He's not extreme enough to run in the 'purist' lane, having voted for the deal in the final vote. He's crowded out by Boris in the 'leave means leave even without a deal' lane. He's not in the 'moderate pragmatist', ' charismatic winner' or 'stop Boris' lanes.
> >
> > The same is true of a number of other potential contenders. Although it's a big field, the number of realistic candidates is quite short, I think; as things stand, Boris, Leadsom, and Hunt look most likely to me, in that order, with Boris well ahead unless he screws up (which admittedly is quite likely, and may already have happened with his Oct 31st pledge).
>
> Of course the lane which is empty is the Remainer lane. It would take a brave person, and is of course doomed amongst the membership. However, if neither Hammond nor Rudd go for it, an enterprising young soul could make the first four at least, and land a plum Cabinet post.
> There are plenty of Tory MPs who, privately at least, wish Brexit would go away.
That lane is Rory Stewart's. Whilst is he is for deal rather than remain, it is clear he would accept any deal that can get through parliament. Nearly all remain Tory MPs would accept that deal to move past Brexit.
'Lanes' sounds a good concept. Boris has the charisma lane entirely to himself, and it is possible that at this moment charisma trumps all. He shares the narcissist lane with so many others that it won't help him. Rory would probably do fine if the electorate were five other chaps with Eton, Balliol, Harvard, Black Watch, ownership of large chunk of Southern Scotland and tutor to royal princes on their CV. Pretty much how it was in 1963(not joking). But Home lost the following year to Wilson and the rest is history.
Profuse apologies to Messrs Herdson (the shame), Rabbit and defunct Scrapheap - I blame the ElecTORYial Commission.
I suggest that our noble selves caucus at Dr Nabavi’s modest but tasteful residence where we can assess the divers inducements from the candidates over several bottles of his vintage claret.
Quite a few of the runners and riders are regularly shorter for next Prime Minister than for next Conservative leader. I leave the reader to determine how likely that is in reality.
> @Luckyguy1983 said: > Nadim Zahawi already talking about withholding payments. Then the EU will cave. > > Whilst insisting No Deal would not be acrimonious. > > Unicorns being saddled up and down the country. > > But of course if there were no deal there would be no payments? Are you suggesting we would get no deal and pay?
The ‘no deal, we don’t pay’ route is the preferred option only of true idiots. If we leave without a deal we will need a thousand and one things agreed with the EU going forward, and they won’t agree even the one without our paying our dues.
I also got Gove and it's worth saying alongside the Parris article that you need a person who could say with a straight face "We screwed this one up, lads." and still be standing afterwards.
> @Pulpstar said: > > @Richard_Nabavi said: > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > These extra remainers aren't heading out for Corbyn are they ? > > > > No, the LibDems are going to do very well indeed I think. > > > > Mind you, I suspect Jo Swinson will be quite voter-repellent, so it might not last. > > Why ? She seems popular up in Mulguye. With the Tories about to embark on another failing and betraying soft Brexit project and Corbyn being well Corbyn why can't she do well ?
What do the LDs do if there are 20 Tory MPs who resign the whip under no deal? Are they willing to sacrifice their party to become a broad centre party? Can they attract centre left and centre right voters at the same time (often they seem to argue whether national spending should be 42 or 43 per cent as if it is a matter of great importance so they should be able to, but people still feel left or right because of the two party system we have had to date). Where do CUK fit in, if anywhere?
Some very big decisions for the new leader, good luck to them.
> @Luckyguy1983 said: > Nadim Zahawi already talking about withholding payments. Then the EU will cave. > > Whilst insisting No Deal would not be acrimonious. > > Unicorns being saddled up and down the country. > > But of course if there were no deal there would be no payments? Are you suggesting we would get no deal and pay?
No. I am saying it would be acrimonious. Still Nigel's face when he has to sue for his pension, eh?
> Nadim Zahawi already talking about withholding payments. Then the EU will cave.
>
> Whilst insisting No Deal would not be acrimonious.
>
> Unicorns being saddled up and down the country.
>
> But of course if there were no deal there would be no payments? Are you suggesting we would get no deal and pay?
The ‘no deal, we don’t pay’ route is the preferred option only of true idiots. If we leave without a deal we will need a thousand and one things agreed with the EU going forward, and they won’t agree even the one without our paying our dues.
> @IanB2 said: > > @Luckyguy1983 said: > > Nadim Zahawi already talking about withholding payments. Then the EU will cave. > > > > Whilst insisting No Deal would not be acrimonious. > > > > Unicorns being saddled up and down the country. > > > > But of course if there were no deal there would be no payments? Are you suggesting we would get no deal and pay? > > The ‘no deal, we don’t pay’ route is the preferred option only of true idiots. If we leave without a deal we will need a thousand and one things agreed with the EU going forward, and they won’t agree even the one without our paying our dues.
This is correct although it is worth pointing out that there is a difference between 'our dues' and what we are currently being asked to pay under the Withdrawal Agreement.
We should certainly pay what we owe but no more than that.
That said I am still hopeful that we will have an agreement in which case there will be some kind of monetary settlement involved over and above our owings just as there is now.
> @Luckyguy1983 said: > > @Luckyguy1983 said: > > > Nadim Zahawi already talking about withholding payments. Then the EU will cave. > > > > > > Whilst insisting No Deal would not be acrimonious. > > > > > > Unicorns being saddled up and down the country. > > > > > > But of course if there were no deal there would be no payments? Are you suggesting we would get no deal and pay? > > > > The ‘no deal, we don’t pay’ route is the preferred option only of true idiots. If we leave without a deal we will need a thousand and one things agreed with the EU going forward, and they won’t agree even the one without our paying our dues. > > Um, no dear.
Because you lot have accurately predicted the EU's moves so far? #GermanCarMakers #EasiestDealInHistory
> @RobD said: > Hindsight is a wonderful thing. Had they known that would have happened, the manifesto would have surely been steady as she goes, rather than trying to challenge a deeply emotive topic.
Odds of 1.7 that the memoirs will be called "I've been very clear"
> @Luckyguy1983 said: > > @Luckyguy1983 said: > > > Nadim Zahawi already talking about withholding payments. Then the EU will cave. > > > > > > Whilst insisting No Deal would not be acrimonious. > > > > > > Unicorns being saddled up and down the country. > > > > > > But of course if there were no deal there would be no payments? Are you suggesting we would get no deal and pay? > > > > The ‘no deal, we don’t pay’ route is the preferred option only of true idiots. If we leave without a deal we will need a thousand and one things agreed with the EU going forward, and they won’t agree even the one without our paying our dues. > > Um, no dear.
> @Luckyguy1983 said: > Nadim Zahawi already talking about withholding payments. Then the EU will cave. > > Whilst insisting No Deal would not be acrimonious. > > Unicorns being saddled up and down the country. > > But of course if there were no deal there would be no payments? Are you suggesting we would get no deal and pay? > > We wouldn't even get the bare minimum "lifeboat" deals to keep some semblance of trade flowing with the EU if we won't pay for stuff like pensions. > > And I doubt many other countries would be itching to sign anything with us too as we'll have demonstrated a contempt for treaty commitments. > > Oh dear, I'm too to tired to explain trade tonight, let alone negotiation. Have fun all.
Quite a few of the runners and riders are regularly shorter for next Prime Minister than for next Conservative leader. I leave the reader to determine how likely that is in reality.
Are you thinking that Corbyn at 40 might be value for next PM, to cover the scenario where Mrs May stays on as a caretaker through an election, as the new Con leader doesn’t have enough votes to win a confidence motion?
> @ah009 said: > > @RobD said: > > Hindsight is a wonderful thing. Had they known that would have happened, the manifesto would have surely been steady as she goes, rather than trying to challenge a deeply emotive topic. > > Odds of 1.7 that the memoirs will be called "I've been very clear"
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @Pulpstar said: > > > @Richard_Nabavi said: > > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > > These extra remainers aren't heading out for Corbyn are they ? > > > > > > No, the LibDems are going to do very well indeed I think. > > > > > > Mind you, I suspect Jo Swinson will be quite voter-repellent, so it might not last. > > > > Why ? She seems popular up in Mulguye. With the Tories about to embark on another failing and betraying soft Brexit project and Corbyn being well Corbyn why can't she do well ? > > What do the LDs do if there are 20 Tory MPs who resign the whip under no deal? Are they willing to sacrifice their party to become a broad centre party? Can they attract centre left and centre right voters at the same time (often they seem to argue whether national spending should be 42 or 43 per cent as if it is a matter of great importance so they should be able to, but people still feel left or right because of the two party system we have had to date). Where do CUK fit in, if anywhere? > > Some very big decisions for the new leader, good luck to them.
Depends if they see Remain/Rejoin as a long term basis for realignment. If they do it is essential that they do so. There are strong Remainers on the outer left and right.
> @david_herdson said: > American-style term limits gave them Trump.
Ummm, the term limits didn't choose Trump in the primaries. The term limits didn't hack the DNC and set up troll farms to undermine trust in one of the candidates. The term limits didn't selectively leak FBI investigation information, forcing the director to make a statement a week before the elections.
And the term limits didn't vote.
Lastly, the term limits mean Trump's time is limited even if he isn't impeached or is swept away by some vulgar little tumour. That can only be a good thing, given the fact that he's hollowing out American democracy from the inside.
> @Richard_Tyndall said: > > Parris is an unreconciled Remainer who believes in Unicorns just as much as the ERG. He has nothing of value to bring to the conversation.
It may be a forlorn hope to wish for a break out of sanity, but it's not a unicorn.
> > Hindsight is a wonderful thing. Had they known that would have happened, the manifesto would have surely been steady as she goes, rather than trying to challenge a deeply emotive topic.
>
> Odds of 1.7 that the memoirs will be called "I've been very clear"
Nothing has changed
Nothing had changed? It’s a retrospective, after all.
Quite a few of the runners and riders are regularly shorter for next Prime Minister than for next Conservative leader. I leave the reader to determine how likely that is in reality.
Are you thinking that Corbyn at 40 might be value for next PM, to cover the scenario where Mrs May stays on as a caretaker through an election, as the new Con leader doesn’t have enough votes to win a confidence motion?
I was thinking that the circumstances where Boris Johnson is next Prime Minister and not next leader of the Conservative party take some imagining (the converse is not true).
Comments
> US commentators often talk about the 'lanes' by which candidates can hope to win a party nomination, for example the 'evangelical' or 'libertarian' or 'moderate' lanes in a Republican nomination contest. The basic idea is that your chance is better if you can dominate one or more lanes, rather than being crowded in with a load of other contenders selling the same thing. It's not the whole story but it can be a useful way of looking at things.
>
> In this contest, I don't see what Raab's 'lane' is. He's not extreme enough to run in the 'purist' lane, having voted for the deal in the final vote. He's crowded out by Boris in the 'leave means leave even without a deal' lane. He's not in the 'moderate pragmatist', ' charismatic winner' or 'stop Boris' lanes.
>
> The same is true of a number of other potential contenders. Although it's a big field, the number of realistic candidates is quite short, I think; as things stand, Boris, Leadsom, and Hunt look most likely to me, in that order, with Boris well ahead unless he screws up (which admittedly is quite likely, and may already have happened with his Oct 31st pledge).
Of course the lane which is empty is the Remainer lane. It would take a brave person, and is of course doomed amongst the membership. However, if neither Hammond nor Rudd go for it, an enterprising young soul could make the first four at least, and land a plum Cabinet post.
There are plenty of Tory MPs who, privately at least, wish Brexit would go away.
To make the last two they go:
Johnson 4/11 (awful price I think. better to back him to win if you think he goes to the membership)
Raab 4/5
Hunt 3/1
Leadsom 5/1
Gove 11/2
Stewart 9/1
Javid 11/1
Mordaunt 12/1
https://order-order.com/2019/05/24/no-backers-yet-penny-rory-brady/
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/garius/status/1131949245127364610
>
> Dick Chiltern-Honey-Drizzler
John London Cheese-Knife
> > @malcolmg said:
>
> >
> > May has got her deserved comeuppance, anyone who has sympathy for her is not right in the head or evil.
>
> That says a lot more about you and your attitudes than anything else.
As Dr Foxy pointed out yesterday, I lay Windrush against Theresa May, not Brexit. Depriving ordinary and vulnerable people of their citizenship and deporting them to a country they don't know to meet a statistical target was immoral.
Theresa May gave a thoughtful speech during the referendum about the problems of Brexit, which apply just as much now as before the vote. Aiming to deliver the vote is no shame even if the project is doomed.
> https://twitter.com/garius/status/1131949245127364610
Colin Conyngham-Colander
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/garius/status/1131949245127364610
>
> Dick Chiltern-Honey-Drizzler
And Wor Lass is Princess Warrenside-Basting-Brush
(Translating Kaur to Princess)
> > @SandyRentool said:
> > > @Scott_P said:
> > > https://twitter.com/garius/status/1131949245127364610
> >
> > Dick Chiltern-Honey-Drizzler
>
> John London Cheese-Knife
Blank Pentyla Garlic Press
> > @AndyJS said:
> > > @El_Capitano said:
> > > I will be absolutely fascinated to read May's memoirs, if they're written with any honesty. By which I don't mean self-criticism - she could write 300 pages of "Exactly Why I Was Always Right" and I'd want to read it - but rather, actually letting on what she was thinking.
> > >
> > > Over the past three years, very little of the inner May has been let out. She has stood at that sodding lectern how many times and repeated that "nothing has changed". She has mouthed platitudinous slogans like "Brexit means Brexit", which means nothing. It is remarkable how we still don't really know this person whose every act has been microscopically examined over and over again.
> > >
> > > I never voted for her, but if her memoirs tell us something about why she did what she did, I will be first in the queue to buy them.
> >
> > "How to blow a 25% poll lead in 4 weeks against Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell."
>
> Hindsight is a wonderful thing. Had they known that would have happened, the manifesto would have surely been steady as she goes, rather than trying to challenge a deeply emotive topic.
The Australian Labor Party has just learnt the same lesson. Don't put anything bold or radical in your manifesto if you want to win an election.
> > @CarlottaVance said:
> > I got Matt Hancock......no, me neither:
> >
> > https://www.buzzfeed.com/alanwhite/which-tory-leader-are-you
>
> I got Amber Rudd!
#MeToo
> Guido has a spreadsheet showing which Tory MPs are backing each candidate. I don't know how reliable it is, but there's a link to it here:
>
> https://order-order.com/2019/05/24/no-backers-yet-penny-rory-brady/
>
>
There's no such thing as too many spreadsheets.
> https://twitter.com/garius/status/1131949245127364610
I'm St John Gower Bar-Blade
> I think PM Boris or Gove is only going to exacerbate this problem
>
> https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/05/brexit-and-the-great-liberal-crack-up/
>
> "This is unfamiliar territory and many diehard Remainers don’t make a case for the EU but a case against the people who are against it. They are anti-anti-Europeans bewildered by their estrangement from the reassuring political certainties shoved aside by Brexit. As they stumble around, bellowing one minute and weeping the next, liberals are every middle-aged man who isn’t handling the divorce well. She’s turned the C2s, Ds and Es against us."
I daresay the Zionist pie eater is having a wee crack up of his own.
https://twitter.com/JournoStephen/status/753615205540716544
There can be only one candidate. Step forward, Chris Grayling...
> > @Richard_Nabavi said:
> > Guido has a spreadsheet showing which Tory MPs are backing each candidate. I don't know how reliable it is, but there's a link to it here:
> >
> > https://order-order.com/2019/05/24/no-backers-yet-penny-rory-brady/
> >
> >
>
> There's no such thing as too many spreadsheets.
The Mayites/softer side of the party not doing too badly. But yo see how badly it needs the Raab/Boris split.
> So there is a vacancy for Chair of the '22 now.
>
> There can be only one candidate. Step forward, Chris Grayling...
You used to like the tory party :-)
> > @JohnO said:
> > So who am I missing from pb's Great and Grand Electors (aka Tory party members)? I have:
> >
> > Richard N
> > Big G
> > HYUFD
> > Tissue Price
> > TSE
> > Max
> > Casino (I think)
> > DavidL
> > Moi
> >
> > It's imperative we vote en bloc at the duly appointed time!
> >
>
> [Gently raises hand]
Raises hand loudly by also shouting COYS
https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1131952538549411842
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/garius/status/1131949245127364610
>
Dick Chiltern-Honey-Drizzler
______________&
The Brexit Party candidates in Scotland literally had names like that. God knows where they dragged them up from.
> > @david_herdson said:
> > > @JohnO said:
> > > So who am I missing from pb's Great and Grand Electors (aka Tory party members)? I have:
> > >
> > > Richard N
> > > Big G
> > > HYUFD
> > > Tissue Price
> > > TSE
> > > Max
> > > Casino (I think)
> > > DavidL
> > > Moi
> > >
> > > It's imperative we vote en bloc at the duly appointed time!
> > >
> >
> > [Gently raises hand]
>
> Raises hand loudly by also shouting COYS
It would be doing the Tories a favour if every PB’er voted to choose the best candidate, and then the PB Tories agreed to back that person as a bloc. Got to be better than leaving the choice to Tory members, who are the last people seemingly able to make any sort of rational choice.
> > @Richard_Nabavi said:
> > US commentators often talk about the 'lanes' by which candidates can hope to win a party nomination, for example the 'evangelical' or 'libertarian' or 'moderate' lanes in a Republican nomination contest. The basic idea is that your chance is better if you can dominate one or more lanes, rather than being crowded in with a load of other contenders selling the same thing. It's not the whole story but it can be a useful way of looking at things.
> >
> > In this contest, I don't see what Raab's 'lane' is. He's not extreme enough to run in the 'purist' lane, having voted for the deal in the final vote. He's crowded out by Boris in the 'leave means leave even without a deal' lane. He's not in the 'moderate pragmatist', ' charismatic winner' or 'stop Boris' lanes.
> >
> > The same is true of a number of other potential contenders. Although it's a big field, the number of realistic candidates is quite short, I think; as things stand, Boris, Leadsom, and Hunt look most likely to me, in that order, with Boris well ahead unless he screws up (which admittedly is quite likely, and may already have happened with his Oct 31st pledge).
>
> Of course the lane which is empty is the Remainer lane. It would take a brave person, and is of course doomed amongst the membership. However, if neither Hammond nor Rudd go for it, an enterprising young soul could make the first four at least, and land a plum Cabinet post.
> There are plenty of Tory MPs who, privately at least, wish Brexit would go away.
That lane is Rory Stewart's. Whilst is he is for deal rather than remain, it is clear he would accept any deal that can get through parliament. Nearly all remain Tory MPs would accept that deal to move past Brexit.
> The correlation between increase in turnout and strength of the Remain vote continues to hold.
> https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1131952538549411842
Many more dots to the right of the 50% line, however.
> https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1131940749279420416
>
>
>
> LDs didn't want to be left out eh?
Nope, announced ages ago (march to be exact) https://news.sky.com/story/sir-vince-cable-to-stand-down-as-lib-dem-leader-in-may-11665686
> > @CarlottaVance said:
> > I got Matt Hancock......no, me neither:
> >
> > https://www.buzzfeed.com/alanwhite/which-tory-leader-are-you
>
> I got Amber Rudd!
so did I
> These extra remainers aren't heading out for Corbyn are they ?
No, the LibDems are going to do very well indeed I think.
Mind you, I suspect Jo Swinson will be quite voter-repellent, so it might not last.
> Guido has a spreadsheet showing which Tory MPs are backing each candidate. I don't know how reliable it is, but there's a link to it here:
>
>
>
> https://order-order.com/2019/05/24/no-backers-yet-penny-rory-brady/
>
> According to Guido Steve Baker actually thinks he should be PM, and at least one MP thinks the same. Hope Guido's just joking but I have a horrible feeling he isn't.
Step forward the ridiculous Private Francois as the one MP supporting Baker so far... he's a walking talking parody.
> Guido has a spreadsheet showing which Tory MPs are backing each candidate. I don't know how reliable it is, but there's a link to it here:
>
>
>
> https://order-order.com/2019/05/24/no-backers-yet-penny-rory-brady/
>
> According to Guido Steve Baker actually thinks he should be PM, and at least one MP thinks the same. Hope Guido's just joking but I have a horrible feeling he isn't.
Heard Francois backing Baker earlier today and worse still heard Baker saying he had received lots of support to stand
They are made for each other
I think it has to be a single word, if not single syllable utensil to work.
Very sad to see May breaking down. Good that the worst is now behind her and she can rebuild.
You're a dark horse. A very, very dark horse. A lot of people think you're the man to unlock Brexit. A lot of other people think you might bring the country to its knees. And where are the people who are most terrified of you? Brussels.
> https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1131902988820406273
>
>
>
> How does Boris get away with this stuff? Why do they seem so convinced he will give them what they want? Why is he allowed to back the deal, especially when doing so inthe manner he did was very stupid, since it was him admitting that the many thousands of times he was told it might be no deal or no Brexit were right.
They can't count and don't play chess. What do they do at Eton these days?
>
> Mind you, I suspect Jo Swinson will be quite voter-repellent, so it might not last.
If Justine Greening defected now, would she be eligible to stand for the leadership?
> > @Slackbladder said:
> > > @CarlottaVance said:
> > > I got Matt Hancock......no, me neither:
> > >
> > > https://www.buzzfeed.com/alanwhite/which-tory-leader-are-you
> >
> > I got Amber Rudd!
>
> so did I
Oh god, I got Gove.
On that bombshell, I'm off to Iberia.
> > @algarkirk said:
> > Guido has a spreadsheet showing which Tory MPs are backing each candidate. I don't know how reliable it is, but there's a link to it here:
> >
> >
> >
> > https://order-order.com/2019/05/24/no-backers-yet-penny-rory-brady/
> >
> > According to Guido Steve Baker actually thinks he should be PM, and at least one MP thinks the same. Hope Guido's just joking but I have a horrible feeling he isn't.
>
> Heard Francois backing Baker earlier today and worse still heard Baker saying he had received lots of support to stand
>
> They are made for each other
Surely some nefarious foreign secret service has them as deep plants?
https://twitter.com/thymetikon/status/1131702577878503425
Whilst insisting No Deal would not be acrimonious.
Unicorns being saddled up and down the country.
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > These extra remainers aren't heading out for Corbyn are they ?
>
> No, the LibDems are going to do very well indeed I think.
>
> Mind you, I suspect Jo Swinson will be quite voter-repellent, so it might not last.
Why ? She seems popular up in Mulguye. With the Tories about to embark on another failing and betraying soft Brexit project and Corbyn being well Corbyn why can't she do well ?
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > These extra remainers aren't heading out for Corbyn are they ?
>
> No, the LibDems are going to do very well indeed I think.
>
> Mind you, I suspect Jo Swinson will be quite voter-repellent, so it might not last.
She is a better option than Moran would have been
She’s toast in Putney if she stays with the Tories.
> > @AndyJS said:
> > > @Richard_Nabavi said:
> > > Guido has a spreadsheet showing which Tory MPs are backing each candidate. I don't know how reliable it is, but there's a link to it here:
> > >
> > > https://order-order.com/2019/05/24/no-backers-yet-penny-rory-brady/
> > >
> > >
> >
> > There's no such thing as too many spreadsheets.
>
> The Mayites/softer side of the party not doing too badly. But yo see how badly it needs the Raab/Boris split.
Well Boris has tied up the fruitcake vote.....Bone Rees Mogg Dorries Rosindell Goldsmith Mercer.....
> If I was Justine Greening I’d be making a quick move to the Lib Dems .
>
> She’s toast in Putney if she stays with the Tories.
She's headed for the Tiggers
> > @nico67 said:
> > If I was Justine Greening I’d be making a quick move to the Lib Dems .
> >
> > She’s toast in Putney if she stays with the Tories.
>
> She's headed for the Tiggers
After Sunday night she might want to have a rethink?
> > @Richard_Nabavi said:
> > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > These extra remainers aren't heading out for Corbyn are they ?
> >
> > No, the LibDems are going to do very well indeed I think.
> >
> > Mind you, I suspect Jo Swinson will be quite voter-repellent, so it might not last.
>
> Why ? She seems popular up in Mulguye. With the Tories about to embark on another failing and betraying soft Brexit project and Corbyn being well Corbyn why can't she do well ?
As a LibDem I am not convinced that Jo is a great prospect. Although if the Tories pick a man and Corbyn sticks around, having a female leader would at least give the party some differentiation. And almost guarantee that Labour is pressured into Corbyn’s replacement being a woman.
> > @nico67 said:
> > If I was Justine Greening I’d be making a quick move to the Lib Dems .
> >
> > She’s toast in Putney if she stays with the Tories.
>
> She's headed for the Tiggers
Why ?!
I suggest that our noble selves caucus at Dr Nabavi’s modest but tasteful residence where we can assess the divers inducements from the candidates over several bottles of his vintage claret.
Those in favour say ‘Aye’......
> Nadim Zahawi already talking about withholding payments. Then the EU will cave.
>
> Whilst insisting No Deal would not be acrimonious.
>
> Unicorns being saddled up and down the country.
>
> But of course if there were no deal there would be no payments? Are you suggesting we would get no deal and pay?
The ‘no deal, we don’t pay’ route is the preferred option only of true idiots. If we leave without a deal we will need a thousand and one things agreed with the EU going forward, and they won’t agree even the one without our paying our dues.
> > @MrsB said:
> > > @Slackbladder said:
> > > > @CarlottaVance said:
> > > > I got Matt Hancock......no, me neither:
> > > >
> > > > https://www.buzzfeed.com/alanwhite/which-tory-leader-are-you
> > >
> > > I got Amber Rudd!
> >
> > so did I
>
> Oh god, I got Gove.
>
> On that bombshell, I'm off to Iberia.
I also got Gove and it's worth saying alongside the Parris article that you need a person who could say with a straight face "We screwed this one up, lads." and still be standing afterwards.
I suspect only Gove or Boris could do that..
> > @Richard_Nabavi said:
> > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > These extra remainers aren't heading out for Corbyn are they ?
> >
> > No, the LibDems are going to do very well indeed I think.
> >
> > Mind you, I suspect Jo Swinson will be quite voter-repellent, so it might not last.
>
> Why ? She seems popular up in Mulguye. With the Tories about to embark on another failing and betraying soft Brexit project and Corbyn being well Corbyn why can't she do well ?
What do the LDs do if there are 20 Tory MPs who resign the whip under no deal? Are they willing to sacrifice their party to become a broad centre party? Can they attract centre left and centre right voters at the same time (often they seem to argue whether national spending should be 42 or 43 per cent as if it is a matter of great importance so they should be able to, but people still feel left or right because of the two party system we have had to date). Where do CUK fit in, if anywhere?
Some very big decisions for the new leader, good luck to them.
Dan Hannan isn’t confident about his own seat either. This is a very weird election.
(FWIW I think he’s misguided, he’ll be re-elected on 8% in the SE which is surely not possible to miss? Although he could well be the only one left).
https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1131669660385062912
++++++++++++++++++++++
He won't need 8%. I'd be very surprised if he needed more than 6.5-7% to get elected, given 10 seats and ChUK and UKIP votes being wasted.
Given the SE is likely to be one of the Tories' strongest regions, that would suggest they'd need to be on c. 6% nationwide.
I just don't see it
> Nadim Zahawi already talking about withholding payments. Then the EU will cave.
>
> Whilst insisting No Deal would not be acrimonious.
>
> Unicorns being saddled up and down the country.
>
> But of course if there were no deal there would be no payments? Are you suggesting we would get no deal and pay?
No. I am saying it would be acrimonious.
Still Nigel's face when he has to sue for his pension, eh?
And I doubt many other countries would be itching to sign anything with us too as we'll have demonstrated a contempt for treaty commitments.
> > @Luckyguy1983 said:
> > Nadim Zahawi already talking about withholding payments. Then the EU will cave.
> >
> > Whilst insisting No Deal would not be acrimonious.
> >
> > Unicorns being saddled up and down the country.
> >
> > But of course if there were no deal there would be no payments? Are you suggesting we would get no deal and pay?
>
> The ‘no deal, we don’t pay’ route is the preferred option only of true idiots. If we leave without a deal we will need a thousand and one things agreed with the EU going forward, and they won’t agree even the one without our paying our dues.
This is correct although it is worth pointing out that there is a difference between 'our dues' and what we are currently being asked to pay under the Withdrawal Agreement.
We should certainly pay what we owe but no more than that.
That said I am still hopeful that we will have an agreement in which case there will be some kind of monetary settlement involved over and above our owings just as there is now.
> > @Luckyguy1983 said:
>
> > Nadim Zahawi already talking about withholding payments. Then the EU will cave.
>
> >
>
> > Whilst insisting No Deal would not be acrimonious.
>
> >
>
> > Unicorns being saddled up and down the country.
>
> >
>
> > But of course if there were no deal there would be no payments? Are you suggesting we would get no deal and pay?
>
>
>
> The ‘no deal, we don’t pay’ route is the preferred option only of true idiots. If we leave without a deal we will need a thousand and one things agreed with the EU going forward, and they won’t agree even the one without our paying our dues.
>
> Um, no dear.
Because you lot have accurately predicted the EU's moves so far? #GermanCarMakers #EasiestDealInHistory
> How come so many PB’ers have a favourite utensil?
I know. I don't even have a middle name, so was spared having to put my mind to that.
> Hindsight is a wonderful thing. Had they known that would have happened, the manifesto would have surely been steady as she goes, rather than trying to challenge a deeply emotive topic.
Odds of 1.7 that the memoirs will be called "I've been very clear"
> > @Luckyguy1983 said:
>
> > Nadim Zahawi already talking about withholding payments. Then the EU will cave.
>
> >
>
> > Whilst insisting No Deal would not be acrimonious.
>
> >
>
> > Unicorns being saddled up and down the country.
>
> >
>
> > But of course if there were no deal there would be no payments? Are you suggesting we would get no deal and pay?
>
>
>
> The ‘no deal, we don’t pay’ route is the preferred option only of true idiots. If we leave without a deal we will need a thousand and one things agreed with the EU going forward, and they won’t agree even the one without our paying our dues.
>
> Um, no dear.
Then join the idiot queue.
> https://twitter.com/Martha_Gill/status/1131964371851042816
Parris is an unreconciled Remainer who believes in Unicorns just as much as the ERG. He has nothing of value to bring to the conversation.
> Nadim Zahawi already talking about withholding payments. Then the EU will cave.
>
> Whilst insisting No Deal would not be acrimonious.
>
> Unicorns being saddled up and down the country.
>
> But of course if there were no deal there would be no payments? Are you suggesting we would get no deal and pay?
>
> We wouldn't even get the bare minimum "lifeboat" deals to keep some semblance of trade flowing with the EU if we won't pay for stuff like pensions.
>
> And I doubt many other countries would be itching to sign anything with us too as we'll have demonstrated a contempt for treaty commitments.
>
> Oh dear, I'm too to tired to explain trade tonight, let alone negotiation. Have fun all.
= I surrender
> If I was Justine Greening I’d be making a quick move to the Lib Dems .
>
> She’s toast in Putney if she stays with the Tories.
If I was her, I'd be preparing my leadership bid. I reckon, in a secret ballot, she'd surprise many on the upside.
> > @RobD said:
> > Hindsight is a wonderful thing. Had they known that would have happened, the manifesto would have surely been steady as she goes, rather than trying to challenge a deeply emotive topic.
>
> Odds of 1.7 that the memoirs will be called "I've been very clear"
Nothing has changed
Because spooning leads to forking.
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > > @Richard_Nabavi said:
> > > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > > These extra remainers aren't heading out for Corbyn are they ?
> > >
> > > No, the LibDems are going to do very well indeed I think.
> > >
> > > Mind you, I suspect Jo Swinson will be quite voter-repellent, so it might not last.
> >
> > Why ? She seems popular up in Mulguye. With the Tories about to embark on another failing and betraying soft Brexit project and Corbyn being well Corbyn why can't she do well ?
>
> What do the LDs do if there are 20 Tory MPs who resign the whip under no deal? Are they willing to sacrifice their party to become a broad centre party? Can they attract centre left and centre right voters at the same time (often they seem to argue whether national spending should be 42 or 43 per cent as if it is a matter of great importance so they should be able to, but people still feel left or right because of the two party system we have had to date). Where do CUK fit in, if anywhere?
>
> Some very big decisions for the new leader, good luck to them.
Depends if they see Remain/Rejoin as a long term basis for realignment. If they do it is essential that they do so. There are strong Remainers on the outer left and right.
> American-style term limits gave them Trump.
Ummm, the term limits didn't choose Trump in the primaries. The term limits didn't hack the DNC and set up troll farms to undermine trust in one of the candidates. The term limits didn't selectively leak FBI investigation information, forcing the director to make a statement a week before the elections.
And the term limits didn't vote.
Lastly, the term limits mean Trump's time is limited even if he isn't impeached or is swept away by some vulgar little tumour. That can only be a good thing, given the fact that he's hollowing out American democracy from the inside.
>
> Parris is an unreconciled Remainer who believes in Unicorns just as much as the ERG. He has nothing of value to bring to the conversation.
It may be a forlorn hope to wish for a break out of sanity, but it's not a unicorn.
Good name for a lawyer!