> > Parris is an unreconciled Remainer who believes in Unicorns just as much as the ERG. He has nothing of value to bring to the conversation.
>
> It may be a forlorn hope to wish for a break out of sanity, but it's not a unicorn.
Its certainly not sanity.
If anyone is going to pivot, it should be to EFTA or an analogue, and sell it as "out of the EU, but keeping trade flowing". Mind you that is broadly what I think should have been pursued by Cameron right from the start, so I don't think there's much chance of sensible approach being taken by the Tory Party.
> @williamglenn said: > John Redwood on Sky is saying he believes the economy has been deliberately slowed by the treasury and we need an injection of public spending.
He expands on this with his reasoning on his blog. One of his main arguments is that the treasury has increased VED on diesel cars in the face of a consumer slowdown that was already underway.
> Dan Hannan isn’t confident about his own seat either. This is a very weird election.
>
> (FWIW I think he’s misguided, he’ll be re-elected on 8% in the SE which is surely not possible to miss? Although he could well be the only one left).
> He won't need 8%. I'd be very surprised if he needed more than 6.5-7% to get elected, given 10 seats and ChUK and UKIP votes being wasted.
>
> Given the SE is likely to be one of the Tories' strongest regions, that would suggest they'd need to be on c. 6% nationwide.
>
> I just don't see it
Last time 8.04% was enough to elect the last MEP for the Lib Dems, but as you say there are likely to be more wasted votes this time. Last time the Conservatives received 30.95% of the vote in the south east, so one quarter of their vote would be enough.
I think that if Hannan has the sense that they are losing around three-quarters of their vote it's probably quite hard to tell the difference between retaining just enough or not enough and so you would not be surprised to see him overdo the scale of the collapse.
Tories in single figures in the South East would be truly astonishing.
Which people knocking on which doors? Would really be interested in where there was genuine GOTV activity, good morning leaflet, telephone knock up or doorstep. Standing at polling stations is irrelevant unless you do something with the data
To be fair to him, Dan Hannan has been posting about canvassing non-stop since the local elections. Assuming they were actually knocking on doors, not just turning up to get their photo taken with an MEP, a lot of towns in the SE region have seen supporters out.
There’s been reports from other regions of members and usual supporters sitting this one out though.
Thanks Interested in the answer for all party’s and all regions.
> @RH1992 said: > > @argyllrs said: > > Is everyone writing off Ester McVey. She isn't as right wing as Raab. Hasn't made a habit of offending everyone abroad like Boris. Did the right thing and resigned early on. Just can't see Gove or Hunt. If she comes over well in the hustings she could be the dark horse. > > Only other relative unknown is Steve Baker but he makes Raab look like a commie. > > That may be but in terms of experience and competence she is the lightest of lightweights. Although.... that hasn't stopped most of the front runners.....
Just trying to find someone who could beat Boris and cannot see any of the other front-runners getting close. 85 on Betfair Exchange so going to punt with a couple of quid.
Just on the US, it's worth remembering that any UK-US trade deal needs to go through the House of Representatives. If we're seen to have f*cked the Irish (irrespective of the rights and wrongs), then it is by no means clear that a trade deal would pass.
I wouldn't even bother talking trade with the US until Trump is history.
> @williamglenn said: > John Redwood on Sky is saying he believes the economy has been deliberately slowed by the treasury and we need an injection of public spending.
I wonder if the evens on LibDems in the 20-25 range may not be worth laying. There might be a bit of wishful betting there - they're punters are expecting the LibDem vote to virtually triple, which seems a big ask. DYOR but...
> Is everyone writing off Ester McVey. She isn't as right wing as Raab. Hasn't made a habit of offending everyone abroad like Boris. Did the right thing and resigned early on. Just can't see Gove or Hunt. If she comes over well in the hustings she could be the dark horse.
> Only other relative unknown is Steve Baker but he makes Raab look like a commie.
That may be but in terms of experience and competence she is the lightest of lightweights. Although.... that hasn't stopped most of the front runners.....
Given the inbox that a new PM is going to receive, it’s going to have to be someone with significant ministerial experience.
The time for a newbie is in opposition, not in government. My outsider is Liz Truss, but I think she’s much more likely to end up in Number 11 than Number 10. She’d make a good Chancellor.
Is a parish recreated in 2010 with no responsibility for the running of elections. Sandpit is right, it will be Hart DC. I was being flippant, it may well be that locals still call it Fleet Council, half a century after the fact.
Just on the US, it's worth remembering that any UK-US trade deal needs to go through the House of Representatives. If we're seen to have f*cked the Irish (irrespective of the rights and wrongs), then it is by no means clear that a trade deal would pass.
I wouldn't even bother talking trade with the US until Trump is history.
We could benefit by default, if we leave the EU just as Trump starts imposing tariffs on their goods.
> Is a parish recreated in 2010 with no responsibility for the running of elections. Sandpit is right, it will be Hart DC. I was being flippant, it may well be that locals still call it Fleet Council, half a century after the fact. > > You've got no Hart!
Yes, I think she said she lived in Fleet, not that the council was called that. My mistake!
> @NickPalmer said: > I wonder if the evens on LibDems in the 20-25 range may not be worth laying. There might be a bit of wishful betting there - they're punters are expecting the LibDem vote to virtually triple, which seems a big ask. DYOR but...
I'm on Labour in London Nick, any hope for that one !?
> @argyllrs said: > Is everyone writing off Ester McVey. She isn't as right wing as Raab. Hasn't made a habit of offending everyone abroad like Boris. Did the right thing and resigned early on. Just can't see Gove or Hunt. If she comes over well in the hustings she could be the dark horse. > Only other relative unknown is Steve Baker but he makes Raab look like a commie.
Yes, she is a lightweight, incompetent and sounds like a toilet cleaner! In addition never forget the innocents who have died due to her misjudgements in office...
> Is everyone writing off Ester McVey. She isn't as right wing as Raab. Hasn't made a habit of offending everyone abroad like Boris. Did the right thing and resigned early on. Just can't see Gove or Hunt. If she comes over well in the hustings she could be the dark horse.
> Only other relative unknown is Steve Baker but he makes Raab look like a commie.
That may be but in terms of experience and competence she is the lightest of lightweights. Although.... that hasn't stopped most of the front runners.....
Given the inbox that a new PM is going to receive, it’s going to have to be someone with significant ministerial experience.
The time for a newbie is in opposition, not in government. My outsider is Liz Truss, but I think she’s much more likely to end up in Number 11 than Number 10. She’d make a good Chancellor.
So it has to be Hammond then the only sane one among them
We could benefit by default, if we leave the EU just as Trump starts imposing tariffs on their goods.
I doubt it would be harmless for us. You only have to look at what has happened with Huawei this last week, as a consequence of Trump's beef with China over trade ARM have had to disengage from working with Huawei. That could happen to any Chinese company that is a licensee of ARM's IP, anyone could be the next victim of this or other Presidents. I expect that ARM are going to find China a much less lucrative market in the future as a result of what has happened, and I think that a Chinese competitor to ARM itself is an almost inevitable consequence.
> @glw said: > Just on the US, it's worth remembering that any UK-US trade deal needs to go through the House of Representatives. If we're seen to have f*cked the Irish (irrespective of the rights and wrongs), then it is by no means clear that a trade deal would pass. > > I wouldn't even bother talking trade with the US until Trump is history.
Quite. There is no worse conversation one can have in this world than that with a malicious idiot. It never ends well. I think we can all relate to this.
> @The_Taxman said: > > @argyllrs said: > > Is everyone writing off Ester McVey. She isn't as right wing as Raab. Hasn't made a habit of offending everyone abroad like Boris. Did the right thing and resigned early on. Just can't see Gove or Hunt. If she comes over well in the hustings she could be the dark horse. > > Only other relative unknown is Steve Baker but he makes Raab look like a commie. > > Yes, she is a lightweight, incompetent and sounds like a toilet cleaner! In addition never forget the innocents who have died due to her misjudgements in office...
She's not that lightweight, I think she sounds fine, and she isn't a mass murderer.
There's something wrong about Steve Baker - I think it's Steve Baker.
> @SirNorfolkPassmore said: > > @Black_Rook said: > > > @AndyJS said: > > > https://twitter.com/mjrharris/status/1131946176654249984?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=http://vote-2012.proboards.com/posts/recent > > > > My husband mentioned this little rumour a bit earlier. Apparently, there's also been differential turnout, with (on average) more voters bothering to go to the polls in Remainian areas, and actual drops in some very Brexity parts. > > > > The differences aren't gargantuan , but possibly enough to suggest that the Brexit Party may do slightly worse, and the Lib Dems and Greens slightly better, than might otherwise have been the case? > > I'd even stick my neck out and say the differences are reasonably big for this sort of thing. > > The correlation is highly significant and, on data so far, you'd expect a notional 100% remain constituency to have turnout up 13%, and a notional 100% leave one to be down 7%. So if they both started on 35% (more or less average turnout) in 2014, Remain Central typically has a 48% turnout, and Brexitville 28% in 2019. > > You need to be very cautious about extending out the trend lines like this, of course. It could also be that, for some reason, outnumbered leavers are driving the higher turnout in remainer areas but staying at home where there are lots of them. But it isn't one of those where it's statistically significant but with trivial effect size - it may actually turn out to be reasonably substantial.
Hmm. Working out what percentage changes in Leave and Remain votes are required to give those 13% and -7% changes in turnout (according to whether the votes last time were - say - 60:40 or 40:60) then they come out very large - on the order of a 50% increase in remain votes and a 50% decrease in leave votes.
I just received this from Betfair and am posting it as a public service. Caveat emptor and all that. I have put more on but don't dare go mad just in case there is another twist in the flailing.
Hi xxx
Thanks for getting in touch.
Apologies for the trouble xxx. The matter has been raised to the traders and they have informed us that the market will be settled on the 7th of June once the resignation is officially done. Kindly note that our traders are the ones that have the final say on such matters as the customer service team is simply the one that is forwarding communication to the necessary teams and assisting clients with day to day issues.
I just received this from Betfair and am posting it as a public service. Caveat emptor and all that. I have put more on but don't dare go mad just in case there is another twist in the flailing.
Hi xxx
Thanks for getting in touch.
Apologies for the trouble xxx. The matter has been raised to the traders and they have informed us that the market will be settled on the 7th of June once the resignation is officially done. Kindly note that our traders are the ones that have the final say on such matters as the customer service team is simply the one that is forwarding communication to the necessary teams and assisting clients with day to day issues.
> @Omnium said: > > @The_Taxman said: > > > @argyllrs said: > > > Is everyone writing off Ester McVey. She isn't as right wing as Raab. Hasn't made a habit of offending everyone abroad like Boris. Did the right thing and resigned early on. Just can't see Gove or Hunt. If she comes over well in the hustings she could be the dark horse. > > > Only other relative unknown is Steve Baker but he makes Raab look like a commie. > > > > Yes, she is a lightweight, incompetent and sounds like a toilet cleaner! In addition never forget the innocents who have died due to her misjudgements in office... > > She's not that lightweight, I think she sounds fine, and she isn't a mass murderer. > > There's something wrong about Steve Baker - I think it's Steve Baker.
I have to disagree on her! But I would agree on Steve Baker and unfortunately for the Tories the party is riddled with these people like a human with incurable cancer....
> @Alistair said: > I just received this from Betfair and am posting it as a public service. Caveat emptor and all that. I have put more on but don't dare go mad just in case there is another twist in the flailing. > > > > Hi xxx > > > > Thanks for getting in touch. > > > > Apologies for the trouble xxx. The matter has been raised to the traders and they have informed us that the market will be settled on the 7th of June once the resignation is officially done. Kindly note that our traders are the ones that have the final say on such matters as the customer service team is simply the one that is forwarding communication to the necessary teams and assisting clients with day to day issues. > > OK, back the fuck in I go.
Don't blame me if the mammaries somehow find themselves pointing in the wrong direction but that seems pretty unequivocal and hard to row back from to me.
> @glw said: > We could benefit by default, if we leave the EU just as Trump starts imposing tariffs on their goods. > > I doubt it would be harmless for us. You only have to look at what has happened with Huawei this last week, as a consequence of Trump's beef with China over trade ARM have had to disengage from working with Huawei. That could happen to any Chinese company that is a licensee of ARM's IP, anyone could be the next victim of this or other Presidents. I expect that ARM are going to find China a much less lucrative market in the future as a result of what has happened, and I think that a Chinese competitor to ARM itself is an almost inevitable consequence.
Yes, this is the real danger of Trunp's trade war: that indigenous suppliers spring up to fill the gaps and will eventually supplant our companies. As SeanT warned, China is spending bigly on R&D at a time when we've been cutting back. The irony is that the Americans and Chinese are arguing about relatively small sums in the grand scheme of things.
> @Omnium said: > > There's something wrong about Steve Baker - I think it's Steve Baker. -------------
The problem with Steve Baker is that he sees himself as a thinker, so there's a risk that people could convince him of things. Send him in to the Commission to negotiate Brexit and he'd come out wanting to join the Euro.
I offer the following just because it took me an hour to calculate and I'll feel that it wasn't a waste of time if I share it!
I took the change in turnout by district in the South West and regressed it against share of the vote by party in 2014. I expected to see a negative correlation between Conservative share of the poll and turnout change (Tories not voting) but there was basically nothing there. The strongest links (-0.34) are with UKIP share of the vote and (+0.34) with Green share of the vote. There are also discernible links with LibDem share (+0.27) and Labour (-0.21).
My conclusion; Greens to do well, and maybe Labour to do worse than the Tories.
Do your own research and all those other normal warnings.....
> @NickPalmer said: > I wonder if the evens on LibDems in the 20-25 range may not be worth laying. There might be a bit of wishful betting there - they're punters are expecting the LibDem vote to virtually triple, which seems a big ask. DYOR but...
I agree with this. Just a hunch but I think the Greens might have scooped a few votes that would otherwise have switched to the LDs. Coalitionitis is still found among Labour voters, and the Greens are more innocent in that worldview.
> @TudorRose said: > I offer the following just because it took me an hour to calculate and I'll feel that it wasn't a waste of time if I share it! > > I took the change in turnout by district in the South West and regressed it against share of the vote by party in 2014. I expected to see a negative correlation between Conservative share of the poll and turnout change (Tories not voting) but there was basically nothing there. The strongest links (-0.34) are with UKIP share of the vote and (+0.34) with Green share of the vote. There are also discernible links with LibDem share (+0.27) and Labour (-0.21). > > My conclusion; Greens to do well, and maybe Labour to do worse than the Tories. > > Do your own research and all those other normal warnings.....
In each case, was that controlling for the shares of the other parties as party shares will themselves be related to each other?
SW is a fairly Leaver-y region is it not?... and up 3.5%. Not sure this supports the Remain areas up more than Leave areas theme.
I have a feeling that the vote will be more representative of the local elections three weeks ago. The party with the best organization will have mobilized their voters better. Yes BTP will do well, but not as well as expected but it’s only a view
> I just received this from Betfair and am posting it as a public service. Caveat emptor and all that. I have put more on but don't dare go mad just in case there is another twist in the flailing.
>
>
>
> Hi xxx
>
>
>
> Thanks for getting in touch.
>
>
>
> Apologies for the trouble xxx. The matter has been raised to the traders and they have informed us that the market will be settled on the 7th of June once the resignation is officially done. Kindly note that our traders are the ones that have the final say on such matters as the customer service team is simply the one that is forwarding communication to the necessary teams and assisting clients with day to day issues.
>
> OK, back the fuck in I go.
Don't blame me if the mammaries somehow find themselves pointing in the wrong direction but that seems pretty unequivocal and hard to row back from to me.
No blame for you, this is all on Betfair no matter how the chips fall. £50 quid of 2017 winnings will harm no one.
> @SirNorfolkPassmore said: > > @TudorRose said: > > I offer the following just because it took me an hour to calculate and I'll feel that it wasn't a waste of time if I share it! > > > > I took the change in turnout by district in the South West and regressed it against share of the vote by party in 2014. I expected to see a negative correlation between Conservative share of the poll and turnout change (Tories not voting) but there was basically nothing there. The strongest links (-0.34) are with UKIP share of the vote and (+0.34) with Green share of the vote. There are also discernible links with LibDem share (+0.27) and Labour (-0.21). > > > > My conclusion; Greens to do well, and maybe Labour to do worse than the Tories. > > > > Do your own research and all those other normal warnings..... > > In each case, was that controlling for the shares of the other parties as party shares will themselves be related to each other?
No, I was just trying to do some crude calculations to see if anything startling came out.
> @Alistair said: > > @Alistair said: > > > I just received this from Betfair and am posting it as a public service. Caveat emptor and all that. I have put more on but don't dare go mad just in case there is another twist in the flailing. > > > > > > > > > > > > Hi xxx > > > > > > > > > > > > Thanks for getting in touch. > > > > > > > > > > > > Apologies for the trouble xxx. The matter has been raised to the traders and they have informed us that the market will be settled on the 7th of June once the resignation is officially done. Kindly note that our traders are the ones that have the final say on such matters as the customer service team is simply the one that is forwarding communication to the necessary teams and assisting clients with day to day issues. > > > > > > OK, back the fuck in I go. > > > > Don't blame me if the mammaries somehow find themselves pointing in the wrong direction but that seems pretty unequivocal and hard to row back from to me. > > No blame for you, this is all on Betfair no matter how the chips fall. £50 quid of 2017 winnings will harm no one.
What significance does 7th June have if its not about May ceasing to be Tory leader? She's telling us that she'll leave office, but that intention is only valid from 7th June?
> @glw said: > > @williamglenn said: > > > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > > > > > > Parris is an unreconciled Remainer who believes in Unicorns just as much as the ERG. He has nothing of value to bring to the conversation. > > > > > > It may be a forlorn hope to wish for a break out of sanity, but it's not a unicorn. > > > > Its certainly not sanity. > > If anyone is going to pivot, it should be to EFTA or an analogue, and sell it as "out of the EU, but keeping trade flowing". Mind you that is broadly what I think should have been pursued by Cameron right from the start, so I don't think there's much chance of sensible approach being taken by the Tory Party.
It would certainly please me as it is what I have advocated from the start and moreover it means I win my £100 bet with Richard N.
> @TudorRose said: > > @SirNorfolkPassmore said: > > > @TudorRose said: > > > I offer the following just because it took me an hour to calculate and I'll feel that it wasn't a waste of time if I share it! > > > > > > I took the change in turnout by district in the South West and regressed it against share of the vote by party in 2014. I expected to see a negative correlation between Conservative share of the poll and turnout change (Tories not voting) but there was basically nothing there. The strongest links (-0.34) are with UKIP share of the vote and (+0.34) with Green share of the vote. There are also discernible links with LibDem share (+0.27) and Labour (-0.21). > > > > > > My conclusion; Greens to do well, and maybe Labour to do worse than the Tories. > > > > > > Do your own research and all those other normal warnings..... > > > > In each case, was that controlling for the shares of the other parties as party shares will themselves be related to each other? > > No, I was just trying to do some crude calculations to see if anything startling came out.
A lot more students voted than last time. And turnout was a little depressed in the most leave-y areas. I really don’t think there is anything more in the data than that.
> > A lot more students voted than last time. And turnout was a little depressed in the most leave-y areas. I really don’t think there is anything more in the data than that.
----------------------
You're probably right but we have to do something while we're waiting for the results.....
It wasn't far from the national result. Within the south west there were some very strong remain areas, and those are the areas mainly seeing higher turnout.
> @nichomar said: > Full turnout figures now available for the South West region. Overall turnout is 40.51%. > > > > https://www.bcpcouncil.gov.uk/Council-and-Democratic/Elections-and-voting/elections-voting-docs/euro-elections/SW-Region-Verification-Turnout-Report.pdf > > Up 3.5% on 2014. > > SW is a fairly Leaver-y region is it not?... and up 3.5%. Not sure this supports the Remain areas up more than Leave areas theme. > > I have a feeling that the vote will be more representative of the local elections three weeks ago. The party with the best organization will have mobilized their voters better. Yes BTP will do well, but not as well as expected but it’s only a view
> @nichomar said: > Full turnout figures now available for the South West region. Overall turnout is 40.51%. > > > > https://www.bcpcouncil.gov.uk/Council-and-Democratic/Elections-and-voting/elections-voting-docs/euro-elections/SW-Region-Verification-Turnout-Report.pdf > > Up 3.5% on 2014. > > SW is a fairly Leaver-y region is it not?... and up 3.5%. Not sure this supports the Remain areas up more than Leave areas theme. > > I have a feeling that the vote will be more representative of the local elections three weeks ago. The party with the best organization will have mobilized their voters better. Yes BTP will do well, but not as well as expected but it’s only a view
Can't speak for the whole SW but in Gloucestershire there were three "remain" districts and three "leave". Turns out the vote was up in the Remain ones and static in the Leave.
> @ralphmalph said: > > @williamglenn said: > > John Redwood on Sky is saying he believes the economy has been deliberately slowed by the treasury and we need an injection of public spending. > > He expands on this with his reasoning on his blog. One of his main arguments is that the treasury has increased VED on diesel cars in the face of a consumer slowdown that was already underway.
Surely everyone is still spending through their PPI compensation payments?
> > John Redwood on Sky is saying he believes the economy has been deliberately slowed by the treasury and we need an injection of public spending.
>
> He expands on this with his reasoning on his blog. One of his main arguments is that the treasury has increased VED on diesel cars in the face of a consumer slowdown that was already underway.
Surely everyone is still spending through their PPI compensation payments?
You can get compensation for PPI? Who'd have thought it!
> @williamglenn said: > John Redwood on Sky is saying he believes the economy has been deliberately slowed by the treasury and we need an injection of public spending.
These people are truly mental, they really are. He, a supposedly dry as dust Tory fiscal hawk, thinks that the Chancellor has reduced the deficit by too much and should boost public borrowing to accelerate short term growth????
> @Omnium said: > > @oldpolitics said: > > OK turnout aside, what is the argument against laying Brexit 40%+ in the Betfair market? > > > > How is 40% possible? That's 41% in GB. > > > > Lib Dems have done well, seems clear. much under 20% would be a huge miss. > > Greens were getting a fair bit of support, 5% would be disappointing. > > Con and Lab doing badly but surely at least 25% between the two of them, probably more. > > UKIP and ChUK still 5% between them, you'd have to think > > SNP and PC should easily account for 3% > > That leaves 1% to distribute between random eco-warriors, English Dems, independents, animal welfare, UKEU, Yorkshire Party > > > > I don't see how any of those numbers other than Brexit can be much lower than that.Surely even with the secrecy a party that had polled 41% wouldn't still be 5-1 to have polled under 30% (though you can of course argue it exactly the other way). > > > > > > I guess there's a fear of substantial numbers of shy Brexit Party voters. Previous Euros having overstated UKIP in the polling might be producing an opposite effect on the pollsters this time too. > > Just feels like the sort of bet to avoid, but of you forced me to choose a side I would lay rather than back.
> @Benpointer said: > > @ralphmalph said: > > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > John Redwood on Sky is saying he believes the economy has been deliberately slowed by the treasury and we need an injection of public spending. > > > > > > He expands on this with his reasoning on his blog. One of his main arguments is that the treasury has increased VED on diesel cars in the face of a consumer slowdown that was already underway. > > > > Surely everyone is still spending through their PPI compensation payments? > > You can get compensation for PPI? Who'd have thought it!
> @TudorRose said: > > @IanB2 said: > > > > > A lot more students voted than last time. And turnout was a little depressed in the most leave-y areas. I really don’t think there is anything more in the data than that. > > ---------------------- > > You're probably right but we have to do something while we're waiting for the results.....
Our sample of reports as to whether ballot papers were handed out folded or unfolded is still rather light?
> @kinabalu said: > > @williamglenn said: > > John Redwood on Sky is saying he believes the economy has been deliberately slowed by the treasury and we need an injection of public spending. > > Good Keynsian, John is. > > Wonder where he wants the money spent? > > "No Deal Planning' I would imagine. > > Kill 2 birds with 1 stone.
No he f******* isn’t. Keynes promoted deficit spending counter cyclically in a recession, not after 9 years of continuous growth with levels of public debt that normally require a good sized war to run up. He’s a disgrace, looking to bribe the electorate with their children’s money. He should join the Labour Party if he believes that sort of nonsense.
> @IanB2 said: > > @Omnium said: > > > @oldpolitics said: > > > OK turnout aside, what is the argument against laying Brexit 40%+ in the Betfair market? > > > > > > How is 40% possible? That's 41% in GB. > > > > > > Lib Dems have done well, seems clear. much under 20% would be a huge miss. > > > Greens were getting a fair bit of support, 5% would be disappointing. > > > Con and Lab doing badly but surely at least 25% between the two of them, probably more. > > > UKIP and ChUK still 5% between them, you'd have to think > > > SNP and PC should easily account for 3% > > > That leaves 1% to distribute between random eco-warriors, English Dems, independents, animal welfare, UKEU, Yorkshire Party > > > > > > I don't see how any of those numbers other than Brexit can be much lower than that.Surely even with the secrecy a party that had polled 41% wouldn't still be 5-1 to have polled under 30% (though you can of course argue it exactly the other way). > > > > > > > > > > I guess there's a fear of substantial numbers of shy Brexit Party voters. Previous Euros having overstated UKIP in the polling might be producing an opposite effect on the pollsters this time too. > > > > Just feels like the sort of bet to avoid, but of you forced me to choose a side I would lay rather than back. > > I have laid a few £. I can’t see BXP beating 40%
Well good luck. Think you'll be fine.
To some extent anyway as a political bettor I guess you don't mind the extremes. If Brexit break 40% then it'll be carnage elsewhere. Chaos is generally good for political betting.
> @DavidL said: > > @williamglenn said: > > John Redwood on Sky is saying he believes the economy has been deliberately slowed by the treasury and we need an injection of public spending. > > These people are truly mental, they really are. He, a supposedly dry as dust Tory fiscal hawk, thinks that the Chancellor has reduced the deficit by too much and should boost public borrowing to accelerate short term growth???? > > I mean, words just fail me.
+1 I think "Brexiteers" have some sort of mental disorder where they confuse their ideological purity for reality and anything that does not conform to it is seen as being a deliberate act to stop Brexit. Confronted with real evidence of economic damage related to Brexit they are in denial and cry project fear. They are stark raving mad, the Tories are f*****d. I doubt I will ever vote for them again. Such a sad end to a party...
> John Redwood on Sky is saying he believes the economy has been deliberately slowed by the treasury and we need an injection of public spending.
These people are truly mental, they really are. He, a supposedly dry as dust Tory fiscal hawk, thinks that the Chancellor has reduced the deficit by too much and should boost public borrowing to accelerate short term growth????
> We could benefit by default, if we leave the EU just as Trump starts imposing tariffs on their goods.
>
> I doubt it would be harmless for us. You only have to look at what has happened with Huawei this last week, as a consequence of Trump's beef with China over trade ARM have had to disengage from working with Huawei. That could happen to any Chinese company that is a licensee of ARM's IP, anyone could be the next victim of this or other Presidents. I expect that ARM are going to find China a much less lucrative market in the future as a result of what has happened, and I think that a Chinese competitor to ARM itself is an almost inevitable consequence.
Yes, this is the real danger of Trunp's trade war: that indigenous suppliers spring up to fill the gaps and will eventually supplant our companies. As SeanT warned, China is spending bigly on R&D at a time when we've been cutting back. The irony is that the Americans and Chinese are arguing about relatively small sums in the grand scheme of things.
China is attempting to develop a vertically integrated chip industry; this will both hinder and accelerate that effort. Going to war with them on trade is a losing strategy.
> @The_Taxman said: > > @DavidL said: > > > @williamglenn said: > > > John Redwood on Sky is saying he believes the economy has been deliberately slowed by the treasury and we need an injection of public spending. > > > > These people are truly mental, they really are. He, a supposedly dry as dust Tory fiscal hawk, thinks that the Chancellor has reduced the deficit by too much and should boost public borrowing to accelerate short term growth???? > > > > I mean, words just fail me. > > +1 > I think "Brexiteers" have some sort of mental disorder where they confuse their ideological purity for reality and anything that does not conform to it is seen as being a deliberate act to stop Brexit. Confronted with real evidence of economic damage related to Brexit they are in denial and cry project fear. They are stark raving mad, the Tories are f*****d. I doubt I will ever vote for them again. Such a sad end to a party...
I think the mistake you're making is thinking that they are a political party. Think of them as a religious cult and it all becomes much clearer
> @The_Taxman said: > > @DavidL said: > > > @williamglenn said: > > > John Redwood on Sky is saying he believes the economy has been deliberately slowed by the treasury and we need an injection of public spending. > > > > These people are truly mental, they really are. He, a supposedly dry as dust Tory fiscal hawk, thinks that the Chancellor has reduced the deficit by too much and should boost public borrowing to accelerate short term growth???? > > > > I mean, words just fail me. > > +1 > I think "Brexiteers" have some sort of mental disorder where they confuse their ideological purity for reality and anything that does not conform to it is seen as being a deliberate act to stop Brexit. Confronted with real evidence of economic damage related to Brexit they are in denial and cry project fear. They are stark raving mad, the Tories are f*****d. I doubt I will ever vote for them again. Such a sad end to a party...
I’m still a Brexiteer but no one can seriously dispute that they have allowed a nest of vipers in their nest which ultimately, astonishingly enough, turned on them and bit them. I heard Cash on the radio driving home. What a deeply unpleasant, irrational ideologue. He should have been deselected decades ago. Just mad and bad.
> @DavidL said: > > @kinabalu said: > > > @williamglenn said: > > > John Redwood on Sky is saying he believes the economy has been deliberately slowed by the treasury and we need an injection of public spending. > > > > Good Keynsian, John is. > > > > Wonder where he wants the money spent? > > > > "No Deal Planning' I would imagine. > > > > Kill 2 birds with 1 stone. > > > No he f******* isn’t. Keynes promoted deficit spending counter cyclically in a recession, not after 9 years of continuous growth with levels of public debt that normally require a good sized war to run up. He’s a disgrace, looking to bribe the electorate with their children’s money. He should join the Labour Party if he believes that sort of nonsense.
There could be an argument for doing so if it was very specific spending for example in import substitution or to redevelop urban retail units for housing.
> @JonWC said: > I haven't yet replied to the effect that the traders are not the final arbiters if they choose to do something which is blatantly wrong..
Could you maybe ask what exactly they count as stepping down? And raise the examples of previous leaders who- other than Major- were technically leader right until they handed over to the next leader?
> @DavidL said: > > @kinabalu said: > > > @williamglenn said: > > > John Redwood on Sky is saying he believes the economy has been deliberately slowed by the treasury and we need an injection of public spending. > > > > Good Keynsian, John is. > > > > Wonder where he wants the money spent? > > > > "No Deal Planning' I would imagine. > > > > Kill 2 birds with 1 stone. > > > No he f******* isn’t. Keynes promoted deficit spending counter cyclically in a recession, not after 9 years of continuous growth with levels of public debt that normally require a good sized war to run up. He’s a disgrace, looking to bribe the electorate with their children’s money. He should join the Labour Party if he believes that sort of nonsense.
William is misrepresenting what he said. He said that we should spend the money we will save in leaving the EU on the UK priorities. So no net increase in borrowing.
But he does continually write about the treasury making bad choices. So why increase VED to deter new buyers when that raises 100's of pounds per car when VAT on a 20K car is 4K.
We could benefit by default, if we leave the EU just as Trump starts imposing tariffs on their goods.
I doubt it would be harmless for us. You only have to look at what has happened with Huawei this last week, as a consequence of Trump's beef with China over trade ARM have had to disengage from working with Huawei. That could happen to any Chinese company that is a licensee of ARM's IP, anyone could be the next victim of this or other Presidents. I expect that ARM are going to find China a much less lucrative market in the future as a result of what has happened, and I think that a Chinese competitor to ARM itself is an almost inevitable consequence.
There’s going to be global ramifications of the US/China trade war, that is for certain. I was thinking more of Trump imposing tariffs on EU cars for example, a situation that could be hugely beneficial to a U.K. that’s outside the EU customs union.
> @another_richard said: > > @DavidL said: > > > @kinabalu said: > > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > John Redwood on Sky is saying he believes the economy has been deliberately slowed by the treasury and we need an injection of public spending. > > > > > > Good Keynsian, John is. > > > > > > Wonder where he wants the money spent? > > > > > > "No Deal Planning' I would imagine. > > > > > > Kill 2 birds with 1 stone. > > > > > > No he f******* isn’t. Keynes promoted deficit spending counter cyclically in a recession, not after 9 years of continuous growth with levels of public debt that normally require a good sized war to run up. He’s a disgrace, looking to bribe the electorate with their children’s money. He should join the Labour Party if he believes that sort of nonsense. > > There could be an argument for doing so if it was very specific spending for example in import substitution or to redevelop urban retail units for housing.
Not really, not now. Obviously that is the sort of thing that we should be planning to do in the next recession which is falling due but our economy doesn’t need fiscal stimulus right now and the debt situation means that we have limited room for manoeuvre. You could make an argument for more of that kind of spending within the current spending envelope but not funded by borrowing.
I just received this from Betfair and am posting it as a public service. Caveat emptor and all that. I have put more on but don't dare go mad just in case there is another twist in the flailing.
Hi xxx
Thanks for getting in touch.
Apologies for the trouble xxx. The matter has been raised to the traders and they have informed us that the market will be settled on the 7th of June once the resignation is officially done. Kindly note that our traders are the ones that have the final say on such matters as the customer service team is simply the one that is forwarding communication to the necessary teams and assisting clients with day to day issues.
“The market will be settled on 7th June”
Really?
With every statement they make, the hole they are digging themselves gets deeper. (Their lawyers are probably going to regret using non-native English speakers in customer service roles).
> @Sandpit said: > We could benefit by default, if we leave the EU just as Trump starts imposing tariffs on their goods. > > I doubt it would be harmless for us. You only have to look at what has happened with Huawei this last week, as a consequence of Trump's beef with China over trade ARM have had to disengage from working with Huawei. That could happen to any Chinese company that is a licensee of ARM's IP, anyone could be the next victim of this or other Presidents. I expect that ARM are going to find China a much less lucrative market in the future as a result of what has happened, and I think that a Chinese competitor to ARM itself is an almost inevitable consequence. > > > There’s going to be global ramifications of the US/China trade war, that is for certain. I was thinking more of Trump imposing tariffs on EU cars for example, a situation that could be hugely beneficial to a U.K. that’s outside the EU customs union.
I am not quite sure why Theresa May subjected herself to that ordeal at the lectern in Downing Street this morning. There was no need for it at all. She could simply have issued a Press Release - which is all Churchill did in 1955 when handing over to Eden. Again in March 1976 , Wilson did that - though allowed himself to be interviewed later in day.No use of the lectern though at any stage. In 1990 Thatcher said nothing in public until the day she actually departed from No 10 - which in May's case might yet be almost two months away.
> @DavidL said: > > @another_richard said: > > > @DavidL said: > > > > @kinabalu said: > > > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > > John Redwood on Sky is saying he believes the economy has been deliberately slowed by the treasury and we need an injection of public spending. > > > > > > > > Good Keynsian, John is. > > > > > > > > Wonder where he wants the money spent? > > > > > > > > "No Deal Planning' I would imagine. > > > > > > > > Kill 2 birds with 1 stone. > > > > > > > > > No he f******* isn’t. Keynes promoted deficit spending counter cyclically in a recession, not after 9 years of continuous growth with levels of public debt that normally require a good sized war to run up. He’s a disgrace, looking to bribe the electorate with their children’s money. He should join the Labour Party if he believes that sort of nonsense. > > > > There could be an argument for doing so if it was very specific spending for example in import substitution or to redevelop urban retail units for housing. > > Not really, not now. Obviously that is the sort of thing that we should be planning to do in the next recession which is falling due but our economy doesn’t need fiscal stimulus right now and the debt situation means that we have limited room for manoeuvre. You could make an argument for more of that kind of spending within the current spending envelope but not funded by borrowing.
With the next recession falling due those are exactly the things you should be implementing now.
It takes time to move from having an idea to the implementation to the effect.
And its never the wrong time to encourage the economy towards something more sustainable.
> @ralphmalph said: > > @DavidL said: > > > @kinabalu said: > > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > John Redwood on Sky is saying he believes the economy has been deliberately slowed by the treasury and we need an injection of public spending. > > > > > > Good Keynsian, John is. > > > > > > Wonder where he wants the money spent? > > > > > > "No Deal Planning' I would imagine. > > > > > > Kill 2 birds with 1 stone. > > > > > > No he f******* isn’t. Keynes promoted deficit spending counter cyclically in a recession, not after 9 years of continuous growth with levels of public debt that normally require a good sized war to run up. He’s a disgrace, looking to bribe the electorate with their children’s money. He should join the Labour Party if he believes that sort of nonsense. > > William is misrepresenting what he said. He said that we should spend the money we will save in leaving the EU on the UK priorities. So no net increase in borrowing. > > But he does continually write about the treasury making bad choices. So why increase VED to deter new buyers when that raises 100's of pounds per car when VAT on a 20K car is 4K.
I don’t know. Maybe to encourage the buyer to buy something other than a diesel? Or because you are seriously concerned about the insane level of credit outstanding on new cars? Or because you want to rein in excessive consumption which is causing an unsustainable trade deficit? Just off the top of my head of course.
> @justin124 said: > I am not quite sure why Theresa May subjected herself to that ordeal at the lectern in Downing Street this morning. There was no need for it at all. She could simply have issued a Press Release - which is all Churchill did in 1955 when handing over to Eden. Again in March 1976 , Wilson did that - though allowed himself to be interviewed later in day.No use of the lectern though at any stage. In 1990 Thatcher said nothing in public until the day she actually departed from No 10 - which in May's case might yet be almost two months away. ================================= Spirit of the times demands such a display I guess ================================== @isam said: > There has to be a fair chance the LDs have won? If we hadn't seen any opinion polls, just the turnouts, they'd prob be favs > > https://twitter.com/JChristy93/status/1131928075871162369 =================================== But with the LDs needing to rise so much, and BXP basically assumed to be taking the UKIP vote from last time and a big big chunk of the Tory vote, even with not as great turnout in Brexit friendly areas it would be hard for BXP to not come top, unless they have taken fewer votes off Labour and Tory than people expected them to?
Is there any way of working out what, if any, differential turnout the polls expected? But depending on what you mean 'fair chance' I'm not convinced. Turnout doesn't tell us who the people are voting for, I'd rather be the pollsters with a sample telling us who they intend to vote for. All we know is areas, not who in the areas of how.
I'm satisfied with the 1/33 I laid against TBP last night, but I don't think it was an amazing bet.
(Being facetious, if we hadn't seen ANY polls and say a remain surge I wonder if we'd think Change UK were connecting? If it wasn't for polling we might not be expecting a LD surge at all - apart from the Locals I guess.)
We > @another_richard said: > > @DavidL said: > > > @another_richard said: > > > > @DavidL said: > > > > > @kinabalu said: > > > > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > > > John Redwood on Sky is saying he believes the economy has been deliberately slowed by the treasury and we need an injection of public spending. > > > > > > > > > > Good Keynsian, John is. > > > > > > > > > > Wonder where he wants the money spent? > > > > > > > > > > "No Deal Planning' I would imagine. > > > > > > > > > > Kill 2 birds with 1 stone. > > > > > > > > > > > > No he f******* isn’t. Keynes promoted deficit spending counter cyclically in a recession, not after 9 years of continuous growth with levels of public debt that normally require a good sized war to run up. He’s a disgrace, looking to bribe the electorate with their children’s money. He should join the Labour Party if he believes that sort of nonsense. > > > > > > There could be an argument for doing so if it was very specific spending for example in import substitution or to redevelop urban retail units for housing. > > > > Not really, not now. Obviously that is the sort of thing that we should be planning to do in the next recession which is falling due but our economy doesn’t need fiscal stimulus right now and the debt situation means that we have limited room for manoeuvre. You could make an argument for more of that kind of spending within the current spending envelope but not funded by borrowing. > > With the next recession falling due those are exactly the things you should be implementing now. > > It takes time to move from having an idea to the implementation to the effect. > > And its never the wrong time to encourage the economy towards something more sustainable.
I would certainly like the planning done but we already have shortages of skilled labour in construction. We should wait until there is spare capacity.
> > > John Redwood on Sky is saying he believes the economy has been deliberately slowed by the treasury and we need an injection of public spending.
> >
> > Good Keynsian, John is.
> >
> > Wonder where he wants the money spent?
> >
> > "No Deal Planning' I would imagine.
> >
> > Kill 2 birds with 1 stone.
>
>
> No he f******* isn’t. Keynes promoted deficit spending counter cyclically in a recession, not after 9 years of continuous growth with levels of public debt that normally require a good sized war to run up. He’s a disgrace, looking to bribe the electorate with their children’s money. He should join the Labour Party if he believes that sort of nonsense.
William is misrepresenting what he said. He said that we should spend the money we will save in leaving the EU on the UK priorities. So no net increase in borrowing.
But he does continually write about the treasury making bad choices. So why increase VED to deter new buyers when that raises 100's of pounds per car when VAT on a 20K car is 4K.
The VED is like stamp duty though, it’s an amount that needs to be found in cash on the day of the transaction - as opposed to the VAT that gets lost in the finance agreement. It’s a significant factor in affordability of the deal as a whole.
> @kle4 said: > > @justin124 said: > > I am not quite sure why Theresa May subjected herself to that ordeal at the lectern in Downing Street this morning. There was no need for it at all. She could simply have issued a Press Release - which is all Churchill did in 1955 when handing over to Eden. Again in March 1976 , Wilson did that - though allowed himself to be interviewed later in day.No use of the lectern though at any stage. In 1990 Thatcher said nothing in public until the day she actually departed from No 10 - which in May's case might yet be almost two months away. > ================================= > Spirit of the times demands such a display I guess > ================================== > @isam said: > > There has to be a fair chance the LDs have won? If we hadn't seen any opinion polls, just the turnouts, they'd prob be favs > > > > https://twitter.com/JChristy93/status/1131928075871162369 > =================================== > But with the LDs needing to rise so much, and BXP basically assumed to be taking the UKIP vote from last time and a big big chunk of the Tory vote, even with not as great turnout in Brexit friendly areas it would be hard for BXP to not come top, unless they have taken fewer votes off Labour and Tory than people expected them to?
'Spirit of the times'? Were I in her position the last thing I would have been inclined to do would have been to bow to media expectations.
> @justin124 said: > 'Spirit of the times'? Were I in her position the last thing I would have been inclined to do would have been to bow to media expectations. ----------------- I don't disagree, but politicians in particular seem unable to not play into the 24 hour news and video content game of the media and the public even when it makes them look awful or is just unnecessary aggravation to themselves.
> @Quincel said: > > Is there any way of working out what, if any, differential turnout the polls expected? But depending on what you mean 'fair chance' I'm not convinced. Turnout doesn't tell us who the people are voting for, I'd rather be the pollsters with a sample telling us who they intend to vote for. All we know is areas, not who in the areas of how. >
---------
The final YouGov poll has a slightly higher "certain to vote" figure for 2016 Leave voters.
> @DavidL said: > We > @another_richard said: > > > @DavidL said: > > > > @another_richard said: > > > > > @DavidL said: > > > > > > @kinabalu said: > > > > > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > > > > John Redwood on Sky is saying he believes the economy has been deliberately slowed by the treasury and we need an injection of public spending. > > > > > > > > > > > > Good Keynsian, John is. > > > > > > > > > > > > Wonder where he wants the money spent? > > > > > > > > > > > > "No Deal Planning' I would imagine. > > > > > > > > > > > > Kill 2 birds with 1 stone. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > No he f******* isn’t. Keynes promoted deficit spending counter cyclically in a recession, not after 9 years of continuous growth with levels of public debt that normally require a good sized war to run up. He’s a disgrace, looking to bribe the electorate with their children’s money. He should join the Labour Party if he believes that sort of nonsense. > > > > > > > > There could be an argument for doing so if it was very specific spending for example in import substitution or to redevelop urban retail units for housing. > > > > > > Not really, not now. Obviously that is the sort of thing that we should be planning to do in the next recession which is falling due but our economy doesn’t need fiscal stimulus right now and the debt situation means that we have limited room for manoeuvre. You could make an argument for more of that kind of spending within the current spending envelope but not funded by borrowing. > > > > With the next recession falling due those are exactly the things you should be implementing now. > > > > It takes time to move from having an idea to the implementation to the effect. > > > > And its never the wrong time to encourage the economy towards something more sustainable. > > I would certainly like the planning done but we already have shortages of skilled labour in construction. We should wait until there is spare capacity.
I imagine the planning will take years so its something which should be started.
> @williamglenn said: > > @Quincel said: > > > > Is there any way of working out what, if any, differential turnout the polls expected? But depending on what you mean 'fair chance' I'm not convinced. Turnout doesn't tell us who the people are voting for, I'd rather be the pollsters with a sample telling us who they intend to vote for. All we know is areas, not who in the areas of how. > > > > --------- > > The final YouGov poll has a slightly higher "certain to vote" figure for 2016 Leave voters. > > https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/c6muz9lchd/TheTimes_190521_EPVI_w.pdf > > If you assume that Leave vs Remain is a consistent factor in differential turnout then I think the figures based on area do tell us quite a lot.
Hmm, maybe I'm being too dismissive. YouGov had a big Brexit Party lead, but they also had LDs coming in second so if (and it's still a big if) we can 'adjust' their figures with the turnout stats then the LDs might not win but surely get a hell of a result.
Ultimately I've placed my final bets for this election. Now it's just the waiting.
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > It would be so ironic if the Lib Dems out vote TBP > > Indeed I think it is possible remain will win the vote count quite easily
> @Sandpit said: > I just received this from Betfair and am posting it as a public service. Caveat emptor and all that. I have put more on but don't dare go mad just in case there is another twist in the flailing. > > > > Hi xxx > > > > Thanks for getting in touch. > > > > Apologies for the trouble xxx. The matter has been raised to the traders and they have informed us that the market will be settled on the 7th of June once the resignation is officially done. Kindly note that our traders are the ones that have the final say on such matters as the customer service team is simply the one that is forwarding communication to the necessary teams and assisting clients with day to day issues. > > “The market will be settled on 7th June” > > Really? > > With every statement they make, the hole they are digging themselves gets deeper. > (Their lawyers are probably going to regret using non-native English speakers in customer service roles).
Agreed. I thought it was bizarre that the person I originally spoke to didn't really make any sense.
This email comes from a person called Nigel though and they have obviously had a chance to think about it. I presume similar emails have been sent out to other people who perhaps may not have read them yet.
It is weird that the odds on TBP vote share have changed to lower expectations, but the odds on them winning haven't budged even 0.01 on Betfair. You don't have to think they aren't favourites to think they aren't quite as strong favourites now.
Is there any way of working out what, if any, differential turnout the polls expected? But depending on what you mean 'fair chance' I'm not convinced. Turnout doesn't tell us who the people are voting for, I'd rather be the pollsters with a sample telling us who they intend to vote for. All we know is areas, not who in the areas of how.
I'm satisfied with the 1/33 I laid against TBP last night, but I don't think it was an amazing bet.
(Being facetious, if we hadn't seen ANY polls and say a remain surge I wonder if we'd think Change UK were connecting? If it wasn't for polling we might not be expecting a LD surge at all - apart from the Locals I guess.)
The facetious comment is probably quite right!
Actually, the people I’m looking at on twitter are saying that if BXP are getting 85-90% of Leave votes, then they win with 35%ish of the vote, and the fact that turnout is down in Leave areas (or not up as much as in Remain) is no biggie
> @another_richard said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > It would be so ironic if the Lib Dems out vote TBP > > > > Indeed I think it is possible remain will win the vote count quite easily > > It would be good to see the ERG meltdown.
> @Sandpit said: > > The VED is like stamp duty though, it’s an amount that needs to be found in cash on the day of the transaction - as opposed to the VAT that gets lost in the finance agreement. It’s a significant factor in affordability of the deal as a whole.
If the buyer can't afford the VED then they can't afford the vehicle.
We should not be encouraging excessive personal debt.
> @another_richard said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > It would be so ironic if the Lib Dems out vote TBP > > > > Indeed I think it is possible remain will win the vote count quite easily > > It would be good to see the ERG meltdown.
Given how ridiculous politics has been the last few years it wouldn't be the most shocking thing if the LDs won prompting the Tories to decide they need to appeal to remainers more than leavers and drafting Ken Clarke.
I mean, Corbyn was elected Labour leader for god's sake! We forget how wild that was!
> @Tissue_Price said: > How do these turnout changes correlate with the Tory vote? Plenty of supporters will have deliberately abstained.
My assumptions about low turnout were based on a belief that quite a lot of Labour and Tory voters would sit this one out. I was either wrong or the increased participation of others has offset the effect.
It would be so ironic if the Lib Dems out vote TBP
Indeed I think it is possible remain will win the vote count quite easily
The grand total of six party signs I saw in my part of north Dorset this week were: 1 for BP, 2 for LD and 3 signs for the Green Party. That's in an area that was strongly Leave in 2016.
Could it be that Leave voters have just had enough?
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @another_richard said: > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > It would be so ironic if the Lib Dems out vote TBP > > > > > > Indeed I think it is possible remain will win the vote count quite easily > > > > It would be good to see the ERG meltdown. > > I would be very pleased to see that
Comments
> > @Pro_Rata said:
> > > @twistedfirestopper3 said:
> > > > @Andrew said:
> > > > > @MarqueeMark said:
> > > > > > @Omnium said:
> > > > > > > @NorthofStoke said:
> > > > > > > > @ah009 said:
> > > > > > > > > @sarissa said:
> > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/garius/status/1131949245127364610
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > James Stenhouse Corkscrew
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > Good name for a lawyer!
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Xander Ypres Zester
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Edward Heath Corer
> > > > > >
> > > > > > John Balmoral Corkscrew
> > > > >
> > > > > Christopher Nuthall-Grater
> > > >
> > > > Robert Redford Orange-Squeezer.
> > > >
> > > > Sounds a bit serial-killerish, but that still makes him preferable to Boris.
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > My wife could actually be Mary Butthole Nutcracker. A serious leader for serious times.
> >
> > Bow down for Peter Garden Mezzaluna
>
> Tim 28th October-Knife
Actually, remember an earlier house now: Tim Camarthen-Knife
> John Redwood on Sky is saying he believes the economy has been deliberately slowed by the treasury and we need an injection of public spending.
He expands on this with his reasoning on his blog. One of his main arguments is that the treasury has increased VED on diesel cars in the face of a consumer slowdown that was already underway.
> > @argyllrs said:
> > Is everyone writing off Ester McVey. She isn't as right wing as Raab. Hasn't made a habit of offending everyone abroad like Boris. Did the right thing and resigned early on. Just can't see Gove or Hunt. If she comes over well in the hustings she could be the dark horse.
> > Only other relative unknown is Steve Baker but he makes Raab look like a commie.
>
> That may be but in terms of experience and competence she is the lightest of lightweights. Although.... that hasn't stopped most of the front runners.....
Just trying to find someone who could beat Boris and cannot see any of the other front-runners getting close. 85 on Betfair Exchange so going to punt with a couple of quid.
> > @twistedfirestopper3 said:
> > > @JackW said:
> > > Agamemnon Eaton Skewer
> > >
> > > Signed J (A) W
> >
> > I'd be too scared to NOT vote for you!
>
> ............................................................
>
> Precisely ....
So you don't take the kebabs off the skewer?
> John Redwood on Sky is saying he believes the economy has been deliberately slowed by the treasury and we need an injection of public spending.
Good Keynsian, John is.
Wonder where he wants the money spent?
"No Deal Planning' I would imagine.
Kill 2 birds with 1 stone.
The time for a newbie is in opposition, not in government. My outsider is Liz Truss, but I think she’s much more likely to end up in Number 11 than Number 10. She’d make a good Chancellor.
> > @JackW said:
> > > @twistedfirestopper3 said:
> > > > @JackW said:
> > > > Agamemnon Eaton Skewer
> > > >
> > > > Signed J (A) W
> > >
> > > I'd be too scared to NOT vote for you!
> >
> > ............................................................
> >
> > Precisely ....
>
> So you don't take the kebabs off the skewer?
......................................................................
Kebabs in Auchentennach Castle dungeons ?!? .... hardly !! ....
> > @AndreaParma_82 said:
> > 45.14% turnout in Northern Ireland, down from 51.8% last time
>
> A DUP enthusiasm gap?
Maybe worth backing Alliance then
> > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
>
> Is a parish recreated in 2010 with no responsibility for the running of elections. Sandpit is right, it will be Hart DC. I was being flippant, it may well be that locals still call it Fleet Council, half a century after the fact.
>
> You've got no Hart!
Yes, I think she said she lived in Fleet, not that the council was called that. My mistake!
> I wonder if the evens on LibDems in the 20-25 range may not be worth laying. There might be a bit of wishful betting there - they're punters are expecting the LibDem vote to virtually triple, which seems a big ask. DYOR but...
I'm on Labour in London Nick, any hope for that one
> Is everyone writing off Ester McVey. She isn't as right wing as Raab. Hasn't made a habit of offending everyone abroad like Boris. Did the right thing and resigned early on. Just can't see Gove or Hunt. If she comes over well in the hustings she could be the dark horse.
> Only other relative unknown is Steve Baker but he makes Raab look like a commie.
Yes, she is a lightweight, incompetent and sounds like a toilet cleaner! In addition never forget the innocents who have died due to her misjudgements in office...
> Just on the US, it's worth remembering that any UK-US trade deal needs to go through the House of Representatives. If we're seen to have f*cked the Irish (irrespective of the rights and wrongs), then it is by no means clear that a trade deal would pass.
>
> I wouldn't even bother talking trade with the US until Trump is history.
Quite. There is no worse conversation one can have in this world than that with a malicious idiot. It never ends well. I think we can all relate to this.
> > @argyllrs said:
> > Is everyone writing off Ester McVey. She isn't as right wing as Raab. Hasn't made a habit of offending everyone abroad like Boris. Did the right thing and resigned early on. Just can't see Gove or Hunt. If she comes over well in the hustings she could be the dark horse.
> > Only other relative unknown is Steve Baker but he makes Raab look like a commie.
>
> Yes, she is a lightweight, incompetent and sounds like a toilet cleaner! In addition never forget the innocents who have died due to her misjudgements in office...
She's not that lightweight, I think she sounds fine, and she isn't a mass murderer.
There's something wrong about Steve Baker - I think it's Steve Baker.
> > @Black_Rook said:
> > > @AndyJS said:
> > > https://twitter.com/mjrharris/status/1131946176654249984?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=http://vote-2012.proboards.com/posts/recent
> >
> > My husband mentioned this little rumour a bit earlier. Apparently, there's also been differential turnout, with (on average) more voters bothering to go to the polls in Remainian areas, and actual drops in some very Brexity parts.
> >
> > The differences aren't gargantuan , but possibly enough to suggest that the Brexit Party may do slightly worse, and the Lib Dems and Greens slightly better, than might otherwise have been the case?
>
> I'd even stick my neck out and say the differences are reasonably big for this sort of thing.
>
> The correlation is highly significant and, on data so far, you'd expect a notional 100% remain constituency to have turnout up 13%, and a notional 100% leave one to be down 7%. So if they both started on 35% (more or less average turnout) in 2014, Remain Central typically has a 48% turnout, and Brexitville 28% in 2019.
>
> You need to be very cautious about extending out the trend lines like this, of course. It could also be that, for some reason, outnumbered leavers are driving the higher turnout in remainer areas but staying at home where there are lots of them. But it isn't one of those where it's statistically significant but with trivial effect size - it may actually turn out to be reasonably substantial.
Hmm. Working out what percentage changes in Leave and Remain votes are required to give those 13% and -7% changes in turnout (according to whether the votes last time were - say - 60:40 or 40:60) then they come out very large - on the order of a 50% increase in remain votes and a 50% decrease in leave votes.
>
> You've got no Hart!
Come and have a go if you think you're Hart enough.
Hi xxx
Thanks for getting in touch.
Apologies for the trouble xxx. The matter has been raised to the traders and they have informed us that the market will be settled on the 7th of June once the resignation is officially done. Kindly note that our traders are the ones that have the final say on such matters as the customer service team is simply the one that is forwarding communication to the necessary teams and assisting clients with day to day issues.
> > @The_Taxman said:
> > > @argyllrs said:
> > > Is everyone writing off Ester McVey. She isn't as right wing as Raab. Hasn't made a habit of offending everyone abroad like Boris. Did the right thing and resigned early on. Just can't see Gove or Hunt. If she comes over well in the hustings she could be the dark horse.
> > > Only other relative unknown is Steve Baker but he makes Raab look like a commie.
> >
> > Yes, she is a lightweight, incompetent and sounds like a toilet cleaner! In addition never forget the innocents who have died due to her misjudgements in office...
>
> She's not that lightweight, I think she sounds fine, and she isn't a mass murderer.
>
> There's something wrong about Steve Baker - I think it's Steve Baker.
I have to disagree on her! But I would agree on Steve Baker and unfortunately for the Tories the party is riddled with these people like a human with incurable cancer....
> I just received this from Betfair and am posting it as a public service. Caveat emptor and all that. I have put more on but don't dare go mad just in case there is another twist in the flailing.
>
>
>
> Hi xxx
>
>
>
> Thanks for getting in touch.
>
>
>
> Apologies for the trouble xxx. The matter has been raised to the traders and they have informed us that the market will be settled on the 7th of June once the resignation is officially done. Kindly note that our traders are the ones that have the final say on such matters as the customer service team is simply the one that is forwarding communication to the necessary teams and assisting clients with day to day issues.
>
> OK, back the fuck in I go.
Don't blame me if the mammaries somehow find themselves pointing in the wrong direction but that seems pretty unequivocal and hard to row back from to me.
> We could benefit by default, if we leave the EU just as Trump starts imposing tariffs on their goods.
>
> I doubt it would be harmless for us. You only have to look at what has happened with Huawei this last week, as a consequence of Trump's beef with China over trade ARM have had to disengage from working with Huawei. That could happen to any Chinese company that is a licensee of ARM's IP, anyone could be the next victim of this or other Presidents. I expect that ARM are going to find China a much less lucrative market in the future as a result of what has happened, and I think that a Chinese competitor to ARM itself is an almost inevitable consequence.
Yes, this is the real danger of Trunp's trade war: that indigenous suppliers spring up to fill the gaps and will eventually supplant our companies. As SeanT warned, China is spending bigly on R&D at a time when we've been cutting back. The irony is that the Americans and Chinese are arguing about relatively small sums in the grand scheme of things.
>
> There's something wrong about Steve Baker - I think it's Steve Baker.
-------------
The problem with Steve Baker is that he sees himself as a thinker, so there's a risk that people could convince him of things. Send him in to the Commission to negotiate Brexit and he'd come out wanting to join the Euro.
I took the change in turnout by district in the South West and regressed it against share of the vote by party in 2014. I expected to see a negative correlation between Conservative share of the poll and turnout change (Tories not voting) but there was basically nothing there. The strongest links (-0.34) are with UKIP share of the vote and (+0.34) with Green share of the vote. There are also discernible links with LibDem share (+0.27) and Labour (-0.21).
My conclusion; Greens to do well, and maybe Labour to do worse than the Tories.
Do your own research and all those other normal warnings.....
> I wonder if the evens on LibDems in the 20-25 range may not be worth laying. There might be a bit of wishful betting there - they're punters are expecting the LibDem vote to virtually triple, which seems a big ask. DYOR but...
I agree with this. Just a hunch but I think the Greens might have scooped a few votes that would otherwise have switched to the LDs. Coalitionitis is still found among Labour voters, and the Greens are more innocent in that worldview.
> > @MTimT said:
> > > @Pro_Rata said:
> > > > @twistedfirestopper3 said:
> > > > > @Andrew said:
> > > > > > @MarqueeMark said:
> > > > > > > @Omnium said:
> > > > > > > > @NorthofStoke said:
> > > > > > > > > @ah009 said:
> > > > > > > > > > @sarissa said:
> > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/garius/status/1131949245127364610
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > James Stenhouse Corkscrew
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > Good name for a lawyer!
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > Xander Ypres Zester
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Edward Heath Corer
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > John Balmoral Corkscrew
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Christopher Nuthall-Grater
> > > > >
> > > > > Robert Redford Orange-Squeezer.
> > > > >
> > > > > Sounds a bit serial-killerish, but that still makes him preferable to Boris.
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > My wife could actually be Mary Butthole Nutcracker. A serious leader for serious times.
> > >
> > > Bow down for Peter Garden Mezzaluna
> >
> > Tim 28th October-Knife
>
> Actually, remember an earlier house now: Tim Camarthen-Knife
James Tufnell-Fork
> I offer the following just because it took me an hour to calculate and I'll feel that it wasn't a waste of time if I share it!
>
> I took the change in turnout by district in the South West and regressed it against share of the vote by party in 2014. I expected to see a negative correlation between Conservative share of the poll and turnout change (Tories not voting) but there was basically nothing there. The strongest links (-0.34) are with UKIP share of the vote and (+0.34) with Green share of the vote. There are also discernible links with LibDem share (+0.27) and Labour (-0.21).
>
> My conclusion; Greens to do well, and maybe Labour to do worse than the Tories.
>
> Do your own research and all those other normal warnings.....
In each case, was that controlling for the shares of the other parties as party shares will themselves be related to each other?
> > @TudorRose said:
> > I offer the following just because it took me an hour to calculate and I'll feel that it wasn't a waste of time if I share it!
> >
> > I took the change in turnout by district in the South West and regressed it against share of the vote by party in 2014. I expected to see a negative correlation between Conservative share of the poll and turnout change (Tories not voting) but there was basically nothing there. The strongest links (-0.34) are with UKIP share of the vote and (+0.34) with Green share of the vote. There are also discernible links with LibDem share (+0.27) and Labour (-0.21).
> >
> > My conclusion; Greens to do well, and maybe Labour to do worse than the Tories.
> >
> > Do your own research and all those other normal warnings.....
>
> In each case, was that controlling for the shares of the other parties as party shares will themselves be related to each other?
No, I was just trying to do some crude calculations to see if anything startling came out.
> > @Alistair said:
>
> > I just received this from Betfair and am posting it as a public service. Caveat emptor and all that. I have put more on but don't dare go mad just in case there is another twist in the flailing.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Hi xxx
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Thanks for getting in touch.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Apologies for the trouble xxx. The matter has been raised to the traders and they have informed us that the market will be settled on the 7th of June once the resignation is officially done. Kindly note that our traders are the ones that have the final say on such matters as the customer service team is simply the one that is forwarding communication to the necessary teams and assisting clients with day to day issues.
>
> >
>
> > OK, back the fuck in I go.
>
>
>
> Don't blame me if the mammaries somehow find themselves pointing in the wrong direction but that seems pretty unequivocal and hard to row back from to me.
>
> No blame for you, this is all on Betfair no matter how the chips fall. £50 quid of 2017 winnings will harm no one.
What significance does 7th June have if its not about May ceasing to be Tory leader? She's telling us that she'll leave office, but that intention is only valid from 7th June?
I think not.
> > @williamglenn said:
>
> > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
>
> > >
>
> > > Parris is an unreconciled Remainer who believes in Unicorns just as much as the ERG. He has nothing of value to bring to the conversation.
>
> >
>
> > It may be a forlorn hope to wish for a break out of sanity, but it's not a unicorn.
>
>
>
> Its certainly not sanity.
>
> If anyone is going to pivot, it should be to EFTA or an analogue, and sell it as "out of the EU, but keeping trade flowing". Mind you that is broadly what I think should have been pursued by Cameron right from the start, so I don't think there's much chance of sensible approach being taken by the Tory Party.
It would certainly please me as it is what I have advocated from the start and moreover it means I win my £100 bet with Richard N.
> > @SirNorfolkPassmore said:
> > > @TudorRose said:
> > > I offer the following just because it took me an hour to calculate and I'll feel that it wasn't a waste of time if I share it!
> > >
> > > I took the change in turnout by district in the South West and regressed it against share of the vote by party in 2014. I expected to see a negative correlation between Conservative share of the poll and turnout change (Tories not voting) but there was basically nothing there. The strongest links (-0.34) are with UKIP share of the vote and (+0.34) with Green share of the vote. There are also discernible links with LibDem share (+0.27) and Labour (-0.21).
> > >
> > > My conclusion; Greens to do well, and maybe Labour to do worse than the Tories.
> > >
> > > Do your own research and all those other normal warnings.....
> >
> > In each case, was that controlling for the shares of the other parties as party shares will themselves be related to each other?
>
> No, I was just trying to do some crude calculations to see if anything startling came out.
A lot more students voted than last time. And turnout was a little depressed in the most leave-y areas. I really don’t think there is anything more in the data than that.
>
> A lot more students voted than last time. And turnout was a little depressed in the most leave-y areas. I really don’t think there is anything more in the data than that.
----------------------
You're probably right but we have to do something while we're waiting for the results.....
> Full turnout figures now available for the South West region. Overall turnout is 40.51%.
>
>
>
> https://www.bcpcouncil.gov.uk/Council-and-Democratic/Elections-and-voting/elections-voting-docs/euro-elections/SW-Region-Verification-Turnout-Report.pdf
>
> Up 3.5% on 2014.
>
> SW is a fairly Leaver-y region is it not?... and up 3.5%. Not sure this supports the Remain areas up more than Leave areas theme.
It wasn't far from the national result. Within the south west there were some very strong remain areas, and those are the areas mainly seeing higher turnout.
> Full turnout figures now available for the South West region. Overall turnout is 40.51%.
>
>
>
> https://www.bcpcouncil.gov.uk/Council-and-Democratic/Elections-and-voting/elections-voting-docs/euro-elections/SW-Region-Verification-Turnout-Report.pdf
>
> Up 3.5% on 2014.
>
> SW is a fairly Leaver-y region is it not?... and up 3.5%. Not sure this supports the Remain areas up more than Leave areas theme.
>
> I have a feeling that the vote will be more representative of the local elections three weeks ago. The party with the best organization will have mobilized their voters better. Yes BTP will do well, but not as well as expected but it’s only a view
> @nichomar said:
> Full turnout figures now available for the South West region. Overall turnout is 40.51%.
>
>
>
> https://www.bcpcouncil.gov.uk/Council-and-Democratic/Elections-and-voting/elections-voting-docs/euro-elections/SW-Region-Verification-Turnout-Report.pdf
>
> Up 3.5% on 2014.
>
> SW is a fairly Leaver-y region is it not?... and up 3.5%. Not sure this supports the Remain areas up more than Leave areas theme.
>
> I have a feeling that the vote will be more representative of the local elections three weeks ago. The party with the best organization will have mobilized their voters better. Yes BTP will do well, but not as well as expected but it’s only a view
Can't speak for the whole SW but in Gloucestershire there were three "remain" districts and three "leave". Turns out the vote was up in the Remain ones and static in the Leave.
UK was 35.6%
> > @williamglenn said:
> > John Redwood on Sky is saying he believes the economy has been deliberately slowed by the treasury and we need an injection of public spending.
>
> He expands on this with his reasoning on his blog. One of his main arguments is that the treasury has increased VED on diesel cars in the face of a consumer slowdown that was already underway.
Surely everyone is still spending through their PPI compensation payments?
> John Redwood on Sky is saying he believes the economy has been deliberately slowed by the treasury and we need an injection of public spending.
These people are truly mental, they really are. He, a supposedly dry as dust Tory fiscal hawk, thinks that the Chancellor has reduced the deficit by too much and should boost public borrowing to accelerate short term growth????
I mean, words just fail me.
Your Western Union name is your Grandads first name, Mothers maiden name and street where you lived as a child
> > @oldpolitics said:
> > OK turnout aside, what is the argument against laying Brexit 40%+ in the Betfair market?
> >
> > How is 40% possible? That's 41% in GB.
> >
> > Lib Dems have done well, seems clear. much under 20% would be a huge miss.
> > Greens were getting a fair bit of support, 5% would be disappointing.
> > Con and Lab doing badly but surely at least 25% between the two of them, probably more.
> > UKIP and ChUK still 5% between them, you'd have to think
> > SNP and PC should easily account for 3%
> > That leaves 1% to distribute between random eco-warriors, English Dems, independents, animal welfare, UKEU, Yorkshire Party
> >
> > I don't see how any of those numbers other than Brexit can be much lower than that.Surely even with the secrecy a party that had polled 41% wouldn't still be 5-1 to have polled under 30% (though you can of course argue it exactly the other way).
> >
> >
>
> I guess there's a fear of substantial numbers of shy Brexit Party voters. Previous Euros having overstated UKIP in the polling might be producing an opposite effect on the pollsters this time too.
>
> Just feels like the sort of bet to avoid, but of you forced me to choose a side I would lay rather than back.
I have laid a few £. I can’t see BXP beating 40%
> > @ralphmalph said:
>
> > > @williamglenn said:
>
> > > John Redwood on Sky is saying he believes the economy has been deliberately slowed by the treasury and we need an injection of public spending.
>
> >
>
> > He expands on this with his reasoning on his blog. One of his main arguments is that the treasury has increased VED on diesel cars in the face of a consumer slowdown that was already underway.
>
>
>
> Surely everyone is still spending through their PPI compensation payments?
>
> You can get compensation for PPI? Who'd have thought it!
I got £4.20. Less 20% for the claims firm.
> > @IanB2 said:
>
> >
> > A lot more students voted than last time. And turnout was a little depressed in the most leave-y areas. I really don’t think there is anything more in the data than that.
>
> ----------------------
>
> You're probably right but we have to do something while we're waiting for the results.....
Our sample of reports as to whether ballot papers were handed out folded or unfolded is still rather light?
> > @williamglenn said:
> > John Redwood on Sky is saying he believes the economy has been deliberately slowed by the treasury and we need an injection of public spending.
>
> Good Keynsian, John is.
>
> Wonder where he wants the money spent?
>
> "No Deal Planning' I would imagine.
>
> Kill 2 birds with 1 stone.
No he f******* isn’t. Keynes promoted deficit spending counter cyclically in a recession, not after 9 years of continuous growth with levels of public debt that normally require a good sized war to run up. He’s a disgrace, looking to bribe the electorate with their children’s money. He should join the Labour Party if he believes that sort of nonsense.
> > @Omnium said:
> > > @oldpolitics said:
> > > OK turnout aside, what is the argument against laying Brexit 40%+ in the Betfair market?
> > >
> > > How is 40% possible? That's 41% in GB.
> > >
> > > Lib Dems have done well, seems clear. much under 20% would be a huge miss.
> > > Greens were getting a fair bit of support, 5% would be disappointing.
> > > Con and Lab doing badly but surely at least 25% between the two of them, probably more.
> > > UKIP and ChUK still 5% between them, you'd have to think
> > > SNP and PC should easily account for 3%
> > > That leaves 1% to distribute between random eco-warriors, English Dems, independents, animal welfare, UKEU, Yorkshire Party
> > >
> > > I don't see how any of those numbers other than Brexit can be much lower than that.Surely even with the secrecy a party that had polled 41% wouldn't still be 5-1 to have polled under 30% (though you can of course argue it exactly the other way).
> > >
> > >
> >
> > I guess there's a fear of substantial numbers of shy Brexit Party voters. Previous Euros having overstated UKIP in the polling might be producing an opposite effect on the pollsters this time too.
> >
> > Just feels like the sort of bet to avoid, but of you forced me to choose a side I would lay rather than back.
>
> I have laid a few £. I can’t see BXP beating 40%
Well good luck. Think you'll be fine.
To some extent anyway as a political bettor I guess you don't mind the extremes. If Brexit break 40% then it'll be carnage elsewhere. Chaos is generally good for political betting.
> > @williamglenn said:
> > John Redwood on Sky is saying he believes the economy has been deliberately slowed by the treasury and we need an injection of public spending.
>
> These people are truly mental, they really are. He, a supposedly dry as dust Tory fiscal hawk, thinks that the Chancellor has reduced the deficit by too much and should boost public borrowing to accelerate short term growth????
>
> I mean, words just fail me.
+1
I think "Brexiteers" have some sort of mental disorder where they confuse their ideological purity for reality and anything that does not conform to it is seen as being a deliberate act to stop Brexit. Confronted with real evidence of economic damage related to Brexit they are in denial and cry project fear. They are stark raving mad, the Tories are f*****d. I doubt I will ever vote for them again. Such a sad end to a party...
Going to war with them on trade is a losing strategy.
> > @DavidL said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > John Redwood on Sky is saying he believes the economy has been deliberately slowed by the treasury and we need an injection of public spending.
> >
> > These people are truly mental, they really are. He, a supposedly dry as dust Tory fiscal hawk, thinks that the Chancellor has reduced the deficit by too much and should boost public borrowing to accelerate short term growth????
> >
> > I mean, words just fail me.
>
> +1
> I think "Brexiteers" have some sort of mental disorder where they confuse their ideological purity for reality and anything that does not conform to it is seen as being a deliberate act to stop Brexit. Confronted with real evidence of economic damage related to Brexit they are in denial and cry project fear. They are stark raving mad, the Tories are f*****d. I doubt I will ever vote for them again. Such a sad end to a party...
I think the mistake you're making is thinking that they are a political party. Think of them as a religious cult and it all becomes much clearer
> > @DavidL said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > John Redwood on Sky is saying he believes the economy has been deliberately slowed by the treasury and we need an injection of public spending.
> >
> > These people are truly mental, they really are. He, a supposedly dry as dust Tory fiscal hawk, thinks that the Chancellor has reduced the deficit by too much and should boost public borrowing to accelerate short term growth????
> >
> > I mean, words just fail me.
>
> +1
> I think "Brexiteers" have some sort of mental disorder where they confuse their ideological purity for reality and anything that does not conform to it is seen as being a deliberate act to stop Brexit. Confronted with real evidence of economic damage related to Brexit they are in denial and cry project fear. They are stark raving mad, the Tories are f*****d. I doubt I will ever vote for them again. Such a sad end to a party...
I’m still a Brexiteer but no one can seriously dispute that they have allowed a nest of vipers in their nest which ultimately, astonishingly enough, turned on them and bit them. I heard Cash on the radio driving home. What a deeply unpleasant, irrational ideologue. He should have been deselected decades ago. Just mad and bad.
> > @kinabalu said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > John Redwood on Sky is saying he believes the economy has been deliberately slowed by the treasury and we need an injection of public spending.
> >
> > Good Keynsian, John is.
> >
> > Wonder where he wants the money spent?
> >
> > "No Deal Planning' I would imagine.
> >
> > Kill 2 birds with 1 stone.
>
>
> No he f******* isn’t. Keynes promoted deficit spending counter cyclically in a recession, not after 9 years of continuous growth with levels of public debt that normally require a good sized war to run up. He’s a disgrace, looking to bribe the electorate with their children’s money. He should join the Labour Party if he believes that sort of nonsense.
There could be an argument for doing so if it was very specific spending for example in import substitution or to redevelop urban retail units for housing.
> I haven't yet replied to the effect that the traders are not the final arbiters if they choose to do something which is blatantly wrong..
Could you maybe ask what exactly they count as stepping down? And raise the examples of previous leaders who- other than Major- were technically leader right until they handed over to the next leader?
> > @kinabalu said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > John Redwood on Sky is saying he believes the economy has been deliberately slowed by the treasury and we need an injection of public spending.
> >
> > Good Keynsian, John is.
> >
> > Wonder where he wants the money spent?
> >
> > "No Deal Planning' I would imagine.
> >
> > Kill 2 birds with 1 stone.
>
>
> No he f******* isn’t. Keynes promoted deficit spending counter cyclically in a recession, not after 9 years of continuous growth with levels of public debt that normally require a good sized war to run up. He’s a disgrace, looking to bribe the electorate with their children’s money. He should join the Labour Party if he believes that sort of nonsense.
William is misrepresenting what he said. He said that we should spend the money we will save in leaving the EU on the UK priorities. So no net increase in borrowing.
But he does continually write about the treasury making bad choices. So why increase VED to deter new buyers when that raises 100's of pounds per car when VAT on a 20K car is 4K.
https://twitter.com/JChristy93/status/1131928075871162369
> > @DavidL said:
> > > @kinabalu said:
> > > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > John Redwood on Sky is saying he believes the economy has been deliberately slowed by the treasury and we need an injection of public spending.
> > >
> > > Good Keynsian, John is.
> > >
> > > Wonder where he wants the money spent?
> > >
> > > "No Deal Planning' I would imagine.
> > >
> > > Kill 2 birds with 1 stone.
> >
> >
> > No he f******* isn’t. Keynes promoted deficit spending counter cyclically in a recession, not after 9 years of continuous growth with levels of public debt that normally require a good sized war to run up. He’s a disgrace, looking to bribe the electorate with their children’s money. He should join the Labour Party if he believes that sort of nonsense.
>
> There could be an argument for doing so if it was very specific spending for example in import substitution or to redevelop urban retail units for housing.
Not really, not now. Obviously that is the sort of thing that we should be planning to do in the next recession which is falling due but our economy doesn’t need fiscal stimulus right now and the debt situation means that we have limited room for manoeuvre. You could make an argument for more of that kind of spending within the current spending envelope but not funded by borrowing.
Really?
With every statement they make, the hole they are digging themselves gets deeper.
(Their lawyers are probably going to regret using non-native English speakers in customer service roles).
> We could benefit by default, if we leave the EU just as Trump starts imposing tariffs on their goods.
>
> I doubt it would be harmless for us. You only have to look at what has happened with Huawei this last week, as a consequence of Trump's beef with China over trade ARM have had to disengage from working with Huawei. That could happen to any Chinese company that is a licensee of ARM's IP, anyone could be the next victim of this or other Presidents. I expect that ARM are going to find China a much less lucrative market in the future as a result of what has happened, and I think that a Chinese competitor to ARM itself is an almost inevitable consequence.
>
>
> There’s going to be global ramifications of the US/China trade war, that is for certain. I was thinking more of Trump imposing tariffs on EU cars for example, a situation that could be hugely beneficial to a U.K. that’s outside the EU customs union.
Or we could get screwed every which way...
> > @another_richard said:
> > > @DavidL said:
> > > > @kinabalu said:
> > > > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > > John Redwood on Sky is saying he believes the economy has been deliberately slowed by the treasury and we need an injection of public spending.
> > > >
> > > > Good Keynsian, John is.
> > > >
> > > > Wonder where he wants the money spent?
> > > >
> > > > "No Deal Planning' I would imagine.
> > > >
> > > > Kill 2 birds with 1 stone.
> > >
> > >
> > > No he f******* isn’t. Keynes promoted deficit spending counter cyclically in a recession, not after 9 years of continuous growth with levels of public debt that normally require a good sized war to run up. He’s a disgrace, looking to bribe the electorate with their children’s money. He should join the Labour Party if he believes that sort of nonsense.
> >
> > There could be an argument for doing so if it was very specific spending for example in import substitution or to redevelop urban retail units for housing.
>
> Not really, not now. Obviously that is the sort of thing that we should be planning to do in the next recession which is falling due but our economy doesn’t need fiscal stimulus right now and the debt situation means that we have limited room for manoeuvre. You could make an argument for more of that kind of spending within the current spending envelope but not funded by borrowing.
With the next recession falling due those are exactly the things you should be implementing now.
It takes time to move from having an idea to the implementation to the effect.
And its never the wrong time to encourage the economy towards something more sustainable.
> > @DavidL said:
> > > @kinabalu said:
> > > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > John Redwood on Sky is saying he believes the economy has been deliberately slowed by the treasury and we need an injection of public spending.
> > >
> > > Good Keynsian, John is.
> > >
> > > Wonder where he wants the money spent?
> > >
> > > "No Deal Planning' I would imagine.
> > >
> > > Kill 2 birds with 1 stone.
> >
> >
> > No he f******* isn’t. Keynes promoted deficit spending counter cyclically in a recession, not after 9 years of continuous growth with levels of public debt that normally require a good sized war to run up. He’s a disgrace, looking to bribe the electorate with their children’s money. He should join the Labour Party if he believes that sort of nonsense.
>
> William is misrepresenting what he said. He said that we should spend the money we will save in leaving the EU on the UK priorities. So no net increase in borrowing.
>
> But he does continually write about the treasury making bad choices. So why increase VED to deter new buyers when that raises 100's of pounds per car when VAT on a 20K car is 4K.
I don’t know. Maybe to encourage the buyer to buy something other than a diesel? Or because you are seriously concerned about the insane level of credit outstanding on new cars? Or because you want to rein in excessive consumption which is causing an unsustainable trade deficit? Just off the top of my head of course.
> I am not quite sure why Theresa May subjected herself to that ordeal at the lectern in Downing Street this morning. There was no need for it at all. She could simply have issued a Press Release - which is all Churchill did in 1955 when handing over to Eden. Again in March 1976 , Wilson did that - though allowed himself to be interviewed later in day.No use of the lectern though at any stage. In 1990 Thatcher said nothing in public until the day she actually departed from No 10 - which in May's case might yet be almost two months away.
=================================
Spirit of the times demands such a display I guess
==================================
@isam said:
> There has to be a fair chance the LDs have won? If we hadn't seen any opinion polls, just the turnouts, they'd prob be favs
>
> https://twitter.com/JChristy93/status/1131928075871162369
===================================
But with the LDs needing to rise so much, and BXP basically assumed to be taking the UKIP vote from last time and a big big chunk of the Tory vote, even with not as great turnout in Brexit friendly areas it would be hard for BXP to not come top, unless they have taken fewer votes off Labour and Tory than people expected them to?
> There has to be a fair chance the LDs have won? If we hadn't seen any opinion polls, just the turnouts, they'd prob be favs
>
> https://twitter.com/JChristy93/status/1131928075871162369
Is there any way of working out what, if any, differential turnout the polls expected? But depending on what you mean 'fair chance' I'm not convinced. Turnout doesn't tell us who the people are voting for, I'd rather be the pollsters with a sample telling us who they intend to vote for. All we know is areas, not who in the areas of how.
I'm satisfied with the 1/33 I laid against TBP last night, but I don't think it was an amazing bet.
(Being facetious, if we hadn't seen ANY polls and say a remain surge I wonder if we'd think Change UK were connecting? If it wasn't for polling we might not be expecting a LD surge at all - apart from the Locals I guess.)
> > @DavidL said:
> > > @another_richard said:
> > > > @DavidL said:
> > > > > @kinabalu said:
> > > > > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > > > John Redwood on Sky is saying he believes the economy has been deliberately slowed by the treasury and we need an injection of public spending.
> > > > >
> > > > > Good Keynsian, John is.
> > > > >
> > > > > Wonder where he wants the money spent?
> > > > >
> > > > > "No Deal Planning' I would imagine.
> > > > >
> > > > > Kill 2 birds with 1 stone.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > No he f******* isn’t. Keynes promoted deficit spending counter cyclically in a recession, not after 9 years of continuous growth with levels of public debt that normally require a good sized war to run up. He’s a disgrace, looking to bribe the electorate with their children’s money. He should join the Labour Party if he believes that sort of nonsense.
> > >
> > > There could be an argument for doing so if it was very specific spending for example in import substitution or to redevelop urban retail units for housing.
> >
> > Not really, not now. Obviously that is the sort of thing that we should be planning to do in the next recession which is falling due but our economy doesn’t need fiscal stimulus right now and the debt situation means that we have limited room for manoeuvre. You could make an argument for more of that kind of spending within the current spending envelope but not funded by borrowing.
>
> With the next recession falling due those are exactly the things you should be implementing now.
>
> It takes time to move from having an idea to the implementation to the effect.
>
> And its never the wrong time to encourage the economy towards something more sustainable.
I would certainly like the planning done but we already have shortages of skilled labour in construction. We should wait until there is spare capacity.
> > @justin124 said:
> > I am not quite sure why Theresa May subjected herself to that ordeal at the lectern in Downing Street this morning. There was no need for it at all. She could simply have issued a Press Release - which is all Churchill did in 1955 when handing over to Eden. Again in March 1976 , Wilson did that - though allowed himself to be interviewed later in day.No use of the lectern though at any stage. In 1990 Thatcher said nothing in public until the day she actually departed from No 10 - which in May's case might yet be almost two months away.
> =================================
> Spirit of the times demands such a display I guess
> ==================================
> @isam said:
> > There has to be a fair chance the LDs have won? If we hadn't seen any opinion polls, just the turnouts, they'd prob be favs
> >
> > https://twitter.com/JChristy93/status/1131928075871162369
> ===================================
> But with the LDs needing to rise so much, and BXP basically assumed to be taking the UKIP vote from last time and a big big chunk of the Tory vote, even with not as great turnout in Brexit friendly areas it would be hard for BXP to not come top, unless they have taken fewer votes off Labour and Tory than people expected them to?
'Spirit of the times'? Were I in her position the last thing I would have been inclined to do would have been to bow to media expectations.
> 'Spirit of the times'? Were I in her position the last thing I would have been inclined to do would have been to bow to media expectations.
-----------------
I don't disagree, but politicians in particular seem unable to not play into the 24 hour news and video content game of the media and the public even when it makes them look awful or is just unnecessary aggravation to themselves.
>
> Is there any way of working out what, if any, differential turnout the polls expected? But depending on what you mean 'fair chance' I'm not convinced. Turnout doesn't tell us who the people are voting for, I'd rather be the pollsters with a sample telling us who they intend to vote for. All we know is areas, not who in the areas of how.
>
---------
The final YouGov poll has a slightly higher "certain to vote" figure for 2016 Leave voters.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/c6muz9lchd/TheTimes_190521_EPVI_w.pdf
If you assume that Leave vs Remain is a consistent factor in differential turnout then I think the figures based on area do tell us quite a lot.
Social liberal. Economically conservative.
Our last hope.
> We > @another_richard said:
> > > @DavidL said:
> > > > @another_richard said:
> > > > > @DavidL said:
> > > > > > @kinabalu said:
> > > > > > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > > > > John Redwood on Sky is saying he believes the economy has been deliberately slowed by the treasury and we need an injection of public spending.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Good Keynsian, John is.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Wonder where he wants the money spent?
> > > > > >
> > > > > > "No Deal Planning' I would imagine.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Kill 2 birds with 1 stone.
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > No he f******* isn’t. Keynes promoted deficit spending counter cyclically in a recession, not after 9 years of continuous growth with levels of public debt that normally require a good sized war to run up. He’s a disgrace, looking to bribe the electorate with their children’s money. He should join the Labour Party if he believes that sort of nonsense.
> > > >
> > > > There could be an argument for doing so if it was very specific spending for example in import substitution or to redevelop urban retail units for housing.
> > >
> > > Not really, not now. Obviously that is the sort of thing that we should be planning to do in the next recession which is falling due but our economy doesn’t need fiscal stimulus right now and the debt situation means that we have limited room for manoeuvre. You could make an argument for more of that kind of spending within the current spending envelope but not funded by borrowing.
> >
> > With the next recession falling due those are exactly the things you should be implementing now.
> >
> > It takes time to move from having an idea to the implementation to the effect.
> >
> > And its never the wrong time to encourage the economy towards something more sustainable.
>
> I would certainly like the planning done but we already have shortages of skilled labour in construction. We should wait until there is spare capacity.
I imagine the planning will take years so its something which should be started.
Indeed I think it is possible remain will win the vote count quite easily
> > @Quincel said:
> >
> > Is there any way of working out what, if any, differential turnout the polls expected? But depending on what you mean 'fair chance' I'm not convinced. Turnout doesn't tell us who the people are voting for, I'd rather be the pollsters with a sample telling us who they intend to vote for. All we know is areas, not who in the areas of how.
> >
>
> ---------
>
> The final YouGov poll has a slightly higher "certain to vote" figure for 2016 Leave voters.
>
> https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/c6muz9lchd/TheTimes_190521_EPVI_w.pdf
>
> If you assume that Leave vs Remain is a consistent factor in differential turnout then I think the figures based on area do tell us quite a lot.
Hmm, maybe I'm being too dismissive. YouGov had a big Brexit Party lead, but they also had LDs coming in second so if (and it's still a big if) we can 'adjust' their figures with the turnout stats then the LDs might not win but surely get a hell of a result.
Ultimately I've placed my final bets for this election. Now it's just the waiting.
> It would be so ironic if the Lib Dems out vote TBP
>
> Indeed I think it is possible remain will win the vote count quite easily
It would be good to see the ERG meltdown.
> I just received this from Betfair and am posting it as a public service. Caveat emptor and all that. I have put more on but don't dare go mad just in case there is another twist in the flailing.
>
>
>
> Hi xxx
>
>
>
> Thanks for getting in touch.
>
>
>
> Apologies for the trouble xxx. The matter has been raised to the traders and they have informed us that the market will be settled on the 7th of June once the resignation is officially done. Kindly note that our traders are the ones that have the final say on such matters as the customer service team is simply the one that is forwarding communication to the necessary teams and assisting clients with day to day issues.
>
> “The market will be settled on 7th June”
>
> Really?
>
> With every statement they make, the hole they are digging themselves gets deeper.
> (Their lawyers are probably going to regret using non-native English speakers in customer service roles).
Agreed. I thought it was bizarre that the person I originally spoke to didn't really make any sense.
This email comes from a person called Nigel though and they have obviously had a chance to think about it. I presume similar emails have been sent out to other people who perhaps may not have read them yet.
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1132018480176177152
Actually, the people I’m looking at on twitter are saying that if BXP are getting 85-90% of Leave votes, then they win with 35%ish of the vote, and the fact that turnout is down in Leave areas (or not up as much as in Remain) is no biggie
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > It would be so ironic if the Lib Dems out vote TBP
> >
> > Indeed I think it is possible remain will win the vote count quite easily
>
> It would be good to see the ERG meltdown.
I would be very pleased to see that
>
> The VED is like stamp duty though, it’s an amount that needs to be found in cash on the day of the transaction - as opposed to the VAT that gets lost in the finance agreement. It’s a significant factor in affordability of the deal as a whole.
If the buyer can't afford the VED then they can't afford the vehicle.
We should not be encouraging excessive personal debt.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > It would be so ironic if the Lib Dems out vote TBP
> >
> > Indeed I think it is possible remain will win the vote count quite easily
>
> It would be good to see the ERG meltdown.
Given how ridiculous politics has been the last few years it wouldn't be the most shocking thing if the LDs won prompting the Tories to decide they need to appeal to remainers more than leavers and drafting Ken Clarke.
I mean, Corbyn was elected Labour leader for god's sake! We forget how wild that was!
> How do these turnout changes correlate with the Tory vote? Plenty of supporters will have deliberately abstained.
My assumptions about low turnout were based on a belief that quite a lot of Labour and Tory voters would sit this one out. I was either wrong or the increased participation of others has offset the effect.
Could it be that Leave voters have just had enough?
> > @another_richard said:
> > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > It would be so ironic if the Lib Dems out vote TBP
> > >
> > > Indeed I think it is possible remain will win the vote count quite easily
> >
> > It would be good to see the ERG meltdown.
>
> I would be very pleased to see that
It would be a truly massive polling failure too.