> @rottenborough said: > Leadsom. > > As I posted the other day. > > Dark Horse. > > There will be jealous Cabinet ministers tonight.
She came across well on Women with Balls and seems a good egg, and in hindsight could she have done any worse than May over the past three years? Probably not.
Leadsom would probably be a good choice for leader - she'll have learnt how stuff works during her time in cabinet so is less green behind the ears than before. Also she doesn't come off as completely batshit mental but is obviously a leaver and there is a certain humanity about her.
a big up yours to the smelly students and their grown up fans
In the first place this is terribly patronising. In the second, it's hopelessly outdated.: the sort of comment you'd have expected twenty years ago. In the third place it is a million miles from the 'always courteous' you proclaimed about yourself.
I expect you'll try and laugh it off as just a throwaway remark, a jest, that I should lighten up etc.
> @Mysticrose said: > Kantar was based on 53% turnout? Seriously? > > I do think people are quite a bit more motivated but there are no local elections alongside. > > Here's the previous: > > 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 > 32.35% 32.57% 36.37% 36.43% 24% 38.52% 34.7% 35.60%
Brexit party has the oldies, high turnout probably suits remain better.
Much as I’d like to pound the Phoenix frau ..... directors, what I’d really like to do is ask Andrea Leadsom and other resigning Cabinet Ministers:- 1. What advice they’ve been given about the impact of a No Deal exit; 2. The steps that could be taken in mitigation and their costsn 3. What cannot be mitigated and the risk assessments of these; and 4. Whether they will agree to publish all the advice and supporting material and risk assessments in full.
Do you realise it's entirely possible that however badly we leave, it won't actually be that bad because there's not enough to go wrong? It may well be literally impossible to achieve the doomsday effect by leaving a supranational body upon which nothing essential depends. Even if we have the maximum queues at Dover and Mars bar ingredient shortages, all the disasters that No Deal can visit on us may be fundamentally just things that could ruin someone's day but not their life.
Do you really think that falling out of 700 agreements with nothing to replace them is something of small moment?
But in any case, to understand exactly what the risks and costs are, let’s have the assessments published.
> @Mysticrose said: > Kantar was based on 53% turnout? Seriously? > > I do think people are quite a bit more motivated but there are no local elections alongside. > > Here's the previous: > > 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 > 32.35% 32.57% 36.37% 36.43% 24% 38.52% 34.7% 35.60%
No EU election has had such publicity nor such a clear imperative to vote nor such a clear choice. I would see something approaching 50% as realistic.
A curious thing from the Labour viewpoint. If May had proposed this 3 months ago, it would have been awkward for Labour. This is a serious referendum offer, and it's worded so that the Bill doesn't pass unless the House has actually rejected a referendum. Lots of Labour MPs and perhaps the leadership would have thought that an irresistible offer. But nobody is rushing out to say so as they think she's doomed.
One thing that surprised me is I have seen precisely one Brexit Party sign around here in very pro-Leave North Dorset; ahead of the EU-Ref the place was plastered in UKIP and Leave signs.
I have seen two Lib Dem signs, one Green sign and none for any other party.
It probably means nothing but with TBP polling 38% I'd have expected a flush of TBP signs.
> @IanB2 said: > > @Mysticrose said: > > Kantar was based on 53% turnout? Seriously? > > > > I do think people are quite a bit more motivated but there are no local elections alongside. > > > > Here's the previous: > > > > 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 > > 32.35% 32.57% 36.37% 36.43% 24% 38.52% 34.7% 35.60% > > No EU election has had such publicity nor such a clear imperative to vote nor such a clear choice. I would see something approaching 50% as realistic.
I am looking forward to spoiling my ballot paper tomorrow.
But I don't believe we will be anywhere near 50%. Many people can't quite understand why we are having elections for MEPs who aren't going to be in office by 1st November (assuming everything happens etc etc etc)
Oxford is currently a sea of Orange - so I suspect turnout here will be higher than average for the rest of the UK. But the impression I get is that a lot of people just don't see the point in the exercise.
Just watched the news report of HMQ being shown how a self service checkout works. The look on her face was wonderful - it was either "I'm not an idiot, I do watch television you know" or "Can they not see how easy it would be to trick this?"
@NickPalmer Labour have treated the entire Brexit process like a parlour game where the objective is to "Sink the Tories !" instead of dealing with anything substantive. It's starting to come unstuck.
Leadsom is a little chilly, but still less so than May. She's also a little more intelligent than May. A little intelligence is a dangerous thing, however.
Mordaunt would be a better leader than either of them, if you're a committed Brexiter.
> @Pulpstar said: > > @Mysticrose said: > > Kantar was based on 53% turnout? Seriously? > > > > I do think people are quite a bit more motivated but there are no local elections alongside. > > > > Here's the previous: > > > > 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 > > 32.35% 32.57% 36.37% 36.43% 24% 38.52% 34.7% 35.60% > > Brexit party has the oldies, high turnout probably suits remain better.
True . Kantar is a wake up call for Remainers because of those definitely going to vote versus the probables . If they don’t vote the BP could easily top 40% .
> @Benpointer said: > One thing that surprised me is I have seen precisely one Brexit Party sign around here in very pro-Leave North Dorset; ahead of the EU-Ref the place was plastered in UKIP and Leave signs. > > I have seen two Lib Dem signs, one Green sign and none for any other party. > > It probably means nothing but with TBP polling 38% I'd have expected a flush of TBP signs.
TBP may not be something people want to admit voting for. If they get momentum and win by-elections then people may become less shy.
We don't put a Conservative poster in the window because we are worried we'd get a brick thrown at it.
> One thing that surprised me is I have seen precisely one Brexit Party sign around here in very pro-Leave North Dorset; ahead of the EU-Ref the place was plastered in UKIP and Leave signs.
>
> I have seen two Lib Dem signs, one Green sign and none for any other party.
>
> It probably means nothing but with TBP polling 38% I'd have expected a flush of TBP signs.
TBP may not be something people want to admit voting for. If they get momentum and win by-elections then people may become less shy.
We don't put a Conservative poster in the window because we are worried we'd get a brick thrown at it.
I’ve not seen any Brexit party posters round here (Havering) and would back them at big odds on to win most votes in this area
There were a couple of Labour posters up here for the locals (One the winners house !), not seen anything for the euros. Brexit party will defo get most votes here for the Euros.
> @isam said: > > @Benpointer said: > > > One thing that surprised me is I have seen precisely one Brexit Party sign around here in very pro-Leave North Dorset; ahead of the EU-Ref the place was plastered in UKIP and Leave signs. > > > > > > I have seen two Lib Dem signs, one Green sign and none for any other party. > > > > > > It probably means nothing but with TBP polling 38% I'd have expected a flush of TBP signs. > > > > TBP may not be something people want to admit voting for. If they get momentum and win by-elections then people may become less shy. > > > > We don't put a Conservative poster in the window because we are worried we'd get a brick thrown at it. > > I’ve not seen any Brexit party posters round here (Havering) and would back them at big odds on to win most votes
I have seen Brexit party posters. I deduced that somebody not very experienced politically had put them up as they were easily removable! I must add that I would not do that as I think it is wrong and I would not want to run the risk of being prosecuted.
The interesting thing about the livery of the Brexit party is its a rip off of the Tories. How did they get that past the electoral commission? I seem to remember Change UK had problems with their livery or icon...
> @WhisperingOracle said: > Leadsom is a little chilly, but still less so than May. She's also a little more intelligent than May. A little intelligence is a dangerous thing, however. > > Mordaunt would be a better leader than either of them, if you're a committed Brexiter.
Gut feeling - McVey.
As gut feelings go, it's about as welcome as gastro enteritis.
FINAL ELECTION CONTACT SCORE Green 2 leaflets Brexit Nigel Party 1 leaflet Change UK 1 leaflet Labour 1 leaflet Ukip 1 leaflet Socialist Party 1 leaflet SNP 1 SMS
> @ah009 said: > FINAL ELECTION CONTACT SCORE > Green 2 leaflets > Brexit Nigel Party 1 leaflet > Change UK 1 leaflet > Labour 1 leaflet > Ukip 1 leaflet > Socialist Party 1 leaflet > SNP 1 SMS > > Plus a few emails I can't be bothered to detail.
The Socialist one was fun. On one side "THERE IS ONLY ONE WORLD". On the other side, "The way out". Ummm
> @Luckyguy1983 said: > I'm not concerned by either shortage. It would be us stopping those things coming in. Worst case scenario we let the lorries in without filling in the right forms.
As a former exporter from the UK, not having documentation on all your imports is actually a BFD, because of the need to fill in tortuous Rules of Origin paperwork when you export things.
It would, of course, all get sorted in time. But I do believe it would be a painful six to nine months. And for people who lose their jobs and houses, well, they won't easily forget.
Comments
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1131296341177577474
>
> Nigel Farage and the seven dwarves
Peaking precisely when he means to?
> Leadsom.
>
> As I posted the other day.
>
> Dark Horse.
>
> There will be jealous Cabinet ministers tonight.
She came across well on Women with Balls and seems a good egg, and in hindsight could she have done any worse than May over the past three years? Probably not.
I do think people are quite a bit more motivated but there are no local elections alongside.
Here's the previous:
1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014
32.35% 32.57% 36.37% 36.43% 24% 38.52% 34.7% 35.60%
Early voting has begum in Latvia.
You bore me 😘
> Kantar was based on 53% turnout? Seriously?
>
> I do think people are quite a bit more motivated but there are no local elections alongside.
>
> Here's the previous:
>
> 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014
> 32.35% 32.57% 36.37% 36.43% 24% 38.52% 34.7% 35.60%
Brexit party has the oldies, high turnout probably suits remain better.
But in any case, to understand exactly what the risks and costs are, let’s have the assessments published.
> Kantar was based on 53% turnout? Seriously?
>
> I do think people are quite a bit more motivated but there are no local elections alongside.
>
> Here's the previous:
>
> 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014
> 32.35% 32.57% 36.37% 36.43% 24% 38.52% 34.7% 35.60%
No EU election has had such publicity nor such a clear imperative to vote nor such a clear choice. I would see something approaching 50% as realistic.
> https://twitter.com/johnmcdonnellMP/status/1131298054857011200
Labour won't either though will they ?
Every Tory, DUP and ChangeUK* will be against. That's even before we get to them talking to the SNP or Lib Dems for potential support ?
*Change nothing
Timing is so critical in politics.
I have seen two Lib Dem signs, one Green sign and none for any other party.
It probably means nothing but with TBP polling 38% I'd have expected a flush of TBP signs.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2019/05/22/theresa-may-must-go-now-national-emergency/
> Probably not original but quite amusing nonetheless:
>
> https://twitter.com/craig4nwarks/status/1131275040706781189
>
>
>
> He avoided resigning by a whisker?
He’s under the sofa and refusing to come out.
> > @Mysticrose said:
> > Kantar was based on 53% turnout? Seriously?
> >
> > I do think people are quite a bit more motivated but there are no local elections alongside.
> >
> > Here's the previous:
> >
> > 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014
> > 32.35% 32.57% 36.37% 36.43% 24% 38.52% 34.7% 35.60%
>
> No EU election has had such publicity nor such a clear imperative to vote nor such a clear choice. I would see something approaching 50% as realistic.
I am looking forward to spoiling my ballot paper tomorrow.
But I don't believe we will be anywhere near 50%. Many people can't quite understand why we are having elections for MEPs who aren't going to be in office by 1st November (assuming everything happens etc etc etc)
Oxford is currently a sea of Orange - so I suspect turnout here will be higher than average for the rest of the UK. But the impression I get is that a lot of people just don't see the point in the exercise.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/05/20/putting-thursday-into-context-a-look-back-at-previous-uk-euro-elections/
> https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1131298214760648705
Talk about making a meal of it...
Mordaunt would be a better leader than either of them, if you're a committed Brexiter.
> > @Mysticrose said:
> > Kantar was based on 53% turnout? Seriously?
> >
> > I do think people are quite a bit more motivated but there are no local elections alongside.
> >
> > Here's the previous:
> >
> > 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014
> > 32.35% 32.57% 36.37% 36.43% 24% 38.52% 34.7% 35.60%
>
> Brexit party has the oldies, high turnout probably suits remain better.
True . Kantar is a wake up call for Remainers because of those definitely going to vote versus the probables . If they don’t vote the BP could easily top 40% .
> One thing that surprised me is I have seen precisely one Brexit Party sign around here in very pro-Leave North Dorset; ahead of the EU-Ref the place was plastered in UKIP and Leave signs.
>
> I have seen two Lib Dem signs, one Green sign and none for any other party.
>
> It probably means nothing but with TBP polling 38% I'd have expected a flush of TBP signs.
TBP may not be something people want to admit voting for. If they get momentum and win by-elections then people may become less shy.
We don't put a Conservative poster in the window because we are worried we'd get a brick thrown at it.
Brexit party will defo get most votes here for the Euros.
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > https://twitter.com/DPMcBride/status/1131283255179776001
>
> Is the PM now sitting on the floor in the corner of the room, gibbering and drooling? What. The. Actual. Heck. Is. She. Thinking?
The floor is the only strong and stable thing left
> > @Benpointer said:
>
> > One thing that surprised me is I have seen precisely one Brexit Party sign around here in very pro-Leave North Dorset; ahead of the EU-Ref the place was plastered in UKIP and Leave signs.
>
> >
>
> > I have seen two Lib Dem signs, one Green sign and none for any other party.
>
> >
>
> > It probably means nothing but with TBP polling 38% I'd have expected a flush of TBP signs.
>
>
>
> TBP may not be something people want to admit voting for. If they get momentum and win by-elections then people may become less shy.
>
>
>
> We don't put a Conservative poster in the window because we are worried we'd get a brick thrown at it.
>
> I’ve not seen any Brexit party posters round here (Havering) and would back them at big odds on to win most votes
I have seen Brexit party posters. I deduced that somebody not very experienced politically had put them up as they were easily removable! I must add that I would not do that as I think it is wrong and I would not want to run the risk of being prosecuted.
The interesting thing about the livery of the Brexit party is its a rip off of the Tories. How did they get that past the electoral commission? I seem to remember Change UK had problems with their livery or icon...
> Leadsom is a little chilly, but still less so than May. She's also a little more intelligent than May. A little intelligence is a dangerous thing, however.
>
> Mordaunt would be a better leader than either of them, if you're a committed Brexiter.
Gut feeling - McVey.
As gut feelings go, it's about as welcome as gastro enteritis.
> https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1131298214760648705
I didn't realise that Erwin Schrödinger was now chair of the 1922 committee.
NEW THREAD
Green 2 leaflets
Brexit Nigel Party 1 leaflet
Change UK 1 leaflet
Labour 1 leaflet
Ukip 1 leaflet
Socialist Party 1 leaflet
SNP 1 SMS
Plus a few emails I can't be bothered to detail.
> FINAL ELECTION CONTACT SCORE
> Green 2 leaflets
> Brexit Nigel Party 1 leaflet
> Change UK 1 leaflet
> Labour 1 leaflet
> Ukip 1 leaflet
> Socialist Party 1 leaflet
> SNP 1 SMS
>
> Plus a few emails I can't be bothered to detail.
The Socialist one was fun. On one side "THERE IS ONLY ONE WORLD". On the other side, "The way out". Ummm
The UKIP one literally has the words "AXE LADY HAW HAW" on it. Fuck me, Ukip are the WORST.
> I'm not concerned by either shortage. It would be us stopping those things coming in. Worst case scenario we let the lorries in without filling in the right forms.
As a former exporter from the UK, not having documentation on all your imports is actually a BFD, because of the need to fill in tortuous Rules of Origin paperwork when you export things.
It would, of course, all get sorted in time. But I do believe it would be a painful six to nine months. And for people who lose their jobs and houses, well, they won't easily forget.