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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A 2019 general election moves up in the betting as the pressure mounts on TMay
Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange
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> The Saj wants to see her now. Crabbe and Tugendhat jumped ship. Previously loyal.
Time to get that sandwich-board out... the end is truly nigh!
> So is May the end of May?
Shame she can't hang on for 9 more days so that the end of May occurs at the end of May.
> https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1131223031991427072
We've seen a few of those before and they've never gone that way the media lead us to expect.,
> The worst thing about all this is going to be Nigel Farage gleefully celebrating getting her scalp.
When planning revenge - first dig two graves.
> First! Like the LDs in London
very unlikely
https://twitter.com/steveholland1/status/1131221427162689537?s=21
> The worst thing about all this is going to be Nigel Farage gleefully celebrating getting her scalp.
The worst thing about this, is she didn't go earlier. Much, much earlier.
> https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1131212470985666561?s=21
Which may be why Javid is going to see her? Someone needs to wield the knife. In return for being kept on in a plum position as kingmaker.
Could that person be the Saj? Wouldn't bet on it.
The parallels with Game of Thrones are getting stronger by the minute.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/12/31/three-tips-on-who-might-be-theresa-mays-successor/
> All threads will eventually die.
No thread is ever really gone...
> @brokenwheel said:
> Ouch
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> https://twitter.com/joncraig/status/1131220451806588929
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All sounds possible except for the Lidington part. Don't see why TM can't remain as PM while the Tories have their contest to elect a new leader.
In fact really, it is her duty to do so... Don't think we've ever had a PM that has just gone without their successor being put in place since Anthony Eden?
> https://twitter.com/nickjbarlow/status/1131223207858593792
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> Have I ever mentioned that I tipped David Lidington at 100/1 to succeed Mrs May?
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> http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/12/31/three-tips-on-who-might-be-theresa-mays-successor/
You would surely be too modest to mention it if you did, TSE.
> https://twitter.com/cathynewman/status/1131226742457348096
Nest of vipers?
> https://twitter.com/nickjbarlow/status/1131223207858593792
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> Have I ever mentioned that I tipped David Lidington at 100/1 to succeed Mrs May?
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> http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/12/31/three-tips-on-who-might-be-theresa-mays-successor/
Yep - As did I back in December (also at 100-1) and Mr Meeks earlier today at 45-1 (he took all the 59-1).
I have to admit its strange how many people on here will be both happy and unsurprised were things to play out this way.
He’s a Sidney Sussex old boy and used to sorting out the mess begat by Old Oxonians.
> > @Benpointer said:
> > First! Like the LDs in London
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> very unlikely
I'd say about 50/50. Labour vote is very weak and a number of party members I have spoken to said they are voting LD. Labour's performance will be dire, probably its worst ever in a euro election - this would be seen as a disaster for an opposition party were it not for the Tory calamity that is absorbing our attention.
> https://twitter.com/cathynewman/status/1131226742457348096
The People's Front for Change has a certain ring about it.
> https://twitter.com/cathynewman/status/1131226742457348096
Interesting that Heidi Allen is keen to publicly burnish her Lib Dem-friendly credentials at this stage...
> https://twitter.com/cathynewman/status/1131226742457348096
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> It's very on brand for ChangeUK to put their big "Look at us, please. Please?" story out up against the PM's resignation.
You think you're divided? Hold my pint. There is a lot of it about.
> Will the Tory vote share tomorrow go up or down if Mrs May resigns tonight?
Doubt it'll make much difference either way.
> Will the Tory vote share tomorrow go up or down if Mrs May resigns tonight?
Up. But there will be no way to ever truly know.
Still think this is a long shot, but maybe someone knows something as he is now at 3.
> All threads will eventually die.
What is dead may never die.
> https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1131212470985666561?s=21
Get rid of May now and the next Tory leader has to go straight to Brussels and ask for the backstop to be removed and replaced by a technical solution and if not they will have to call a general election in October on a platform of No Deal as the current Commons will always vote for further extension or if refused by Macron likely revoke over No Deal
Which means Alastair Meeks cannot gloat on his 999/1 bet.
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
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> > https://twitter.com/nickjbarlow/status/1131223207858593792
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> > Have I ever mentioned that I tipped David Lidington at 100/1 to succeed Mrs May?
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> > http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/12/31/three-tips-on-who-might-be-theresa-mays-successor/
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> Yep - As did I back in December (also at 100-1) and Mr Meeks earlier today at 45-1 (he took all the 59-1).
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> I have to admit its strange how many people on here will be both happy and unsurprised were things to play out this way.
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> Sorry to trump you boys, but I am on at 140 from November.
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> Still think this is a long shot, but maybe someone knows something as he is now at 3.
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> Doesn’t count unless you tipped it in a PB thread header.
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> Which means Alastair Meeks cannot gloat on his 999/1 bet.
It doesn't count unless it actually happens
I mean Chris Grayling is also a Sidney old boy.
I've had some interim manager shafting before now with footie managers..
> > @williamglenn said:
> > https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1131212470985666561?s=21
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> Get rid of May now and the next Tory leader has to go straight to Brussels and ask for the backstop to be removed and replaced by a technical solution and if not they will have to call a general election in October on a platform of No Deal as the current Commons will always vote for further extension or if refused by Macron likely revoke over No Deal
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The backstop is an interim guarantee. It can't be replaced with something that doesn't deliver.
Whiskey and Revolver time?
> > @williamglenn said:
> > https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1131212470985666561?s=21
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> Get rid of May now and the next Tory leader has to go straight to Brussels and ask for the backstop to be removed and replaced by a technical solution and if not they will have to call a general election in October on a platform of No Deal as the current Commons will always vote for further extension or if refused by Macron likely revoke over No Deal
I know you don't like the backstop, but what did the full stop ever do to offend you?
> I'm on to win a grand with a bookie but have a bit laid off on Betfair - when someone becomes the PM they definitely become the PM right ?
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> I've had some interim manager shafting before now with footie managers..
Dunno about bookies but BF says:
This market will be settled based on the first official announcement of the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.
> 22 exec: “We haven’t done anything yet”. Meeting chief now. Meeting adjourned.
Chief Whip at 5:30
Meeting resumes at 6.
> > @williamglenn said:
> > https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1131212470985666561?s=21
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> Get rid of May now and the next Tory leader has to go straight to Brussels and ask for the backstop to be removed and replaced by a technical solution and if not they will have to call a general election in October on a platform of No Deal as the current Commons will always vote for further extension or if refused by Macron likely revoke over No Deal
That would be great for two reasons:
1. I have money on an October election.
2. Labour would win a majority on a manifesto promising a 2nd referendum with the Tory vote split with The Brexit Party.
> https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1131231297190465539
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> Whiskey and Revolver time?
If so, she's lost the ascots too. It's whisky, not whiskey, if you're a loyal Scotch drinker
> https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/1131232323402379265
We no longer really have a constitution. Discuss
> https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/1131232323402379265
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> Can they show me the relevant part of the constitution to back up this assertion?
Since we don't have a constitution I find this a bit difficult to understand.
> I’m thinking Election Day purdah/broadcasting rules means she cannot quit tomorrow until after 10pm.
If you resign during purdah, no-one can hear you scream.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/1131232323402379265
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> We no longer really have a constitution. Discuss
We never had one - all we have is conventions....
He was briefly next PM in waiting.
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > I’m thinking Election Day purdah/broadcasting rules means she cannot quit tomorrow until after 10pm.
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> If you resign during purdah, no-one can hear you scream.
I have no confidence and I must scream
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/1131232323402379265
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> We no longer really have a constitution. Discuss
Only in the sense that he would find it hard to command a majority. Meanwhile Hunt wants to see the PM too. Gonna be crowded in there.
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/1131232323402379265
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> > Can they show me the relevant part of the constitution to back up this assertion?
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> Since we don't have a constitution I find this a bit difficult to understand.
As executive power is delegated by the sovereign to the Prime Minister and their cabinet, there has to be a PM. If the incumbent does not wish to act as caretaker after submitting their resignation, somebody has to be appointed.
> I’m thinking Election Day purdah/broadcasting rules means she cannot quit tomorrow until after 10pm.
You keep using that word "purdah" but it does not mean what you think it means
> What ever happened to Cox by the way?
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> He was briefly next PM in waiting.
His reputation took a knock trying to renegotiate the backstop.
> I'm sure everyone is delighted to learn that Andrea Leadsom will be launching another leadership campaign, according to various reports.
Expect her to demonstrate flexibility this time by saying that having too many children can be a bad thing.
> What ever happened to Cox by the way?
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> He was briefly next PM in waiting.
Not really, he was a possible option before things changed 30 seconds later. Liddington has always had the job title that says were the PM to fall under a bus he takes over short term..
Turns out Led By Donkeys is a Greenpeace front.
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1131229354439127040
Really think about how utterly unprecedented that is. To be even suggesting it.
> https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/1131232323402379265
Bring in Ken Clarke and see how many head bangers spontaneously combust... But I'd rather see one of their own carry the can if no deal really does happen...