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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A 2019 general election moves up in the betting as the pressur

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,583
    edited May 2019
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    > https://twitter.com/cgwOMT/status/1131271062656823297

    Until 1942 the post usually was held by the PM.
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    Roger said:

    The French aren't even mentioning the fiasco that's happening across the channel. We're a laughing stock but they can't even be bothered to laugh.



    PS. Get your money on Govey ridiculous as it sounds.

    "PARIS (Reuters) - Victory for veteran British anti-EU campaigner Nigel Farage in this week's European Parliament election will create a big headache for the European Union and the UK should exit the bloc as soon as possible, France's finance minister said on Tuesday.

    Opinion polls put Farage's newly created Brexit Party well ahead of its rivals, including Prime Minister Theresa May's governing Conservatives and the main opposition Labour Party, in the countdown to the vote, which in Britain is held on May 23.

    "When you have Nigel Farage at more than 35 percent of the vote that won't be easy for the European Union to manage," Bruno Le Maire said. "How long do we continue like that?"

    France has previously warned that it would not tolerate repeated extensions of the Brexit deadline and has said it hopes the European Parliament vote in Britain will jolt its political parties into reaching a deal on leaving the EU.

    "I consider that the British people decided to leave the European Union and the faster Britain leaves the better," Le Maire told reporters."
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    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,045
    Thanks for the mess, you lying disingenuous politicians, What a clusterf*ck we have had and continue to have!
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    kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    >
    > > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    >
    > > > Where's Mortimer?
    >
    > > >
    >
    > > > Back in 2016 he assured me that only a Leave victory would unite the Tory party & country and end the Tory civil war over Europe.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > He was here briefly last night, perhaps he is putting up his Brexit Party poster for tomorrow?
    >
    > >
    >
    >
    >
    > Ah contraire. I’m here.
    >
    >
    >
    > Call me naive, but I assumed the democratic choice of the nation would be honoured. When we leave, the Tory party will be far more united than now.
    >
    >
    >
    > Was knocking for the locals - the anger is at the delay. Before then things were going well.
    >
    > As Gove said to the cabinet, he didn't campaign for No Deal, and it does't honour the referendum campaign/result.
    >
    > A No Deal Brexit doesn't honour the democratic result.

    We voted to leave whether there is a deal or WTO brexit ,the ballot paper was leave or remain, how we left was up to the government to decide
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,920
    > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    > https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1131271545060564997

    May wasn't in the mood for "receiving" visitors earlier so...
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    > @Gallowgate said:
    > Call me naive, but I assumed the democratic choice of the nation would be honoured. When we leave, the Tory party will be far more united than now.
    >
    > If you Brexiteers had compromised on Single Market, we would have left on time, with a reasonably united nation. This is your fault.

    Freedom of movement says hello.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    Nigel Farage has been forced to seek refuge on his campaign bus after being stalked by people carrying milkshakes in Kent, according to reports.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/22/nigel-farage-shelters-on-campaign-bus-to-avoid-milkshake-attack

    Again, this is totally unacceptable.
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    > @HYUFD said:
    > https://twitter.com/hilarybennmp/status/1131272655024340992?s=20

    The issue many have is that they would rather Farage speak for us than Corbyn - and whilst that is hardly a pleasant thought, it is the reality of where we are right now
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    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,045
    > @HYUFD said:
    > https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1131268171539853317?s=20

    The brains of the Tory party has spoken. LOLz...
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    FF43 said:

    Get my political epitaph in early. Theresa May was an incompetent prime minister. It probably made no difference to the Brexit outcome as any likely alternative Conservative leader would have hit the same issues and there just wasn't a big enough Conservative majority in the House of Commons to steam roller it through. Theresa May worked her guts out for Brexit, but the project was doomed from the start. It's now about how we deal with the failure.

    May had a decent majority, then fucked it in an extended moment of hubris.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,387
    > @sarissa said:
    > > @ah009 said:
    >
    > > > @DavidL said:
    >
    > > > I have unexpectedly had to spend the night in Edinburgh and am committed to being here tomorrow night too. I am wondering if an emergency proxy is worth the faff, especially as my initial instincts were not to vote at all.
    >
    > > >
    >
    > > > My concern now is that the Tory party could completely collapse. This is not just a question of May, who I have always said should have been got rid of immediately after the 2017 fiasco. It is the issue of whether we are to have a moderate centre right party in this country. It is no longer something we can take for granted.
    >
    > > >
    >
    > > > I think I will give it a go. The end of days is upon us.
    >
    > > >
    >
    > > > This woman told Osborne to go and learn more about his party. Just mind blowing.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > May I recommend Dishoom for food? It's rather good.
    >
    >
    >
    > We've been there for our Christmas lunch the last 2 years and I have been on other occasions as well. I agree it is absolutely excellent although I miss the calamari from their menu. Best starter I have ever had in an Indian restaurant.
    >
    > Look on the bright side - you’ll be back home before us Hearts supporters return from Hamden.....

    I'm back on Saturday but we are going to Cafe St Honore (which is also seriously good) where there is unlikely to be too many Hearts fans drowning their sorrows. Remember the target is to lose by less than 6.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,385

    > @HYUFD said:

    >





    The issue many have is that they would rather Farage speak for us than Corbyn - and whilst that is hardly a pleasant thought, it is the reality of where we are right now
    They have a choice between a fifth rate populist nutter with some highly racist friends running a party as a sort of one man freak show spouting rubbish he doesn't understand about policies he wouldn't implement...

    ...or Nigel Farage.
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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,800
    > @Gallowgate said:
    > Call me naive, but I assumed the democratic choice of the nation would be honoured. When we leave, the Tory party will be far more united than now.
    >
    > If you Brexiteers had compromised on Single Market, we would have left on time, with a reasonably united nation. This is your fault.

    There is a degree to which you're saying if the vote winners had simply embraced the the vote losers position and then just bigged it up about how they won, then it would have been great.

    You may see some flaws in this, but I'm just going to tell you that you're wonderful. (Behind the scenes I move the furniture)
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,385

    Nigel Farage has been forced to seek refuge on his campaign bus after being stalked by people carrying milkshakes in Kent, according to reports.



    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/22/nigel-farage-shelters-on-campaign-bus-to-avoid-milkshake-attack



    Again, this is totally unacceptable.

    Are we sure he's not just milking it?
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,094
    Mortimer said:

    Freedom of movement says hello.

    That is such bollocks. Stop rewriting history. Freedom of movement was not put to a referendum and therefore retaining it is not an 'insult to democracy'.

    This is your fault. Nobody elses.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,002

    Seeing so many on here struggling to decide where to place their x tomorrow does make me wonder that the public as a whole may just ignore the vote as they do not understand any of it anyway

    Notorious B.I.G, people on here waaaaay overthink how to vote compared to your average joe
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    > @FrancisUrquhart said:
    > Nigel Farage has been forced to seek refuge on his campaign bus after being stalked by people carrying milkshakes in Kent, according to reports.
    >
    > https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/22/nigel-farage-shelters-on-campaign-bus-to-avoid-milkshake-attack
    >
    > Again, this is totally unacceptable.

    Allegedly also not true - according to the Mirror.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,387
    > @HYUFD said:
    > https://twitter.com/tom_watson/status/1131272001937711106?s=20

    You know he's mischief making when he talks of Tory activists who have been working hard for these elections.
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    rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > I shall vote tomorrow, either Lib Dem, Green or CHUK. I’ll see how I feel in the polling booth.
    ____________________________

    www.remainvoter.com may give you useful advice.
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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Can we have Blair back .

    He only fucked other countries not his own .
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    > @HYUFD said:
    > https://twitter.com/tom_watson/status/1131272001937711106?s=20

    How many Tory activists are actually working to get a Tory MEP???
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,978
    ydoethur said:

    @viewcode (rather belatedly fpt)

    viewcode said:

    > @CarlottaVance said:

    >



    Surely Greybull must have some successes, or they would have gone under themselves?
    You buy the company at a deflated price, get funding from the government, strip off all the desirable bits to another company, go bust, buy any desirable assets at pennies to the pound, then eff off and let the taxpayer clean up the mess. I think that's what Alchemy did with Rover IIRC
    Alchemy didn't take on Rover as the then government effectively blockaded them from doing so. Are you referring to Phoenix? They did take it over and to call their conduct of the company's affairs highly questionable would be to dignify it.
    Yes, you are correct. My brain doesn't work as well as it did.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,920
    edited May 2019
    > @HYUFD said:
    > https://twitter.com/Lord_Sugar/status/1131277230057893890?s=20

    Still think Theresa's playing a blinder @HYUFD ? :D
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,907
    For a cabinet minister to resign the day before an election is shameful, disrespectful to all those members and voters working for the party.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,583

    Mortimer said:

    Freedom of movement says hello.

    That is such bollocks. Stop rewriting history. Freedom of movement was not put to a referendum and therefore retaining it is not an 'insult to democracy'.

    This is your fault. Nobody elses.
    It is odd, Leavers remember the part from the referendum campaign where their side we were leaving the single market, but forget the bits where their side No Deal was Project Fear and that we'd leave with a deal.

    Can't imagine why.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,002

    > @HYUFD said:

    >

    > No higher than most of the polls had Remain ahead before the 2016 referendum

    ---------



    It is higher than all but a handful of polls had Remain in 2016.

    It’s pretty standard for the hypothetical period before the date was announced in 2016, and for 2015 which are the comparable times to now
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,227
    Frankly, we need a GE. To have another PM foisted on us then foisting a policy on us to suit internal Tory party politics without consulting us is a disgrace.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,385
    nico67 said:

    Can we have Blair back .



    He only fucked other countries not his own .

    PFI, tuition fees, and Gordon Brown as Chancellor all give a discreet wave.
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    When Farage and TBP wins overnight on Sunday, do we see the creation of a TBP parliamentary group with defections from the ERG and their fellow travellers or do they stay in the hope of getting someone they like from within the Tory Party into the top job?

    I am genuinely not sure which way they will jump. Forcing the collapse of government and an election in a matter of weeks, they could hope to ride on the populist wave that could sweep TBP into power.

    I don't believe a TBP parliamentary win is possible - but at the moment, I don't think anything is impossible.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,146
    > @rural_voter said:
    > > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > > I shall vote tomorrow, either Lib Dem, Green or CHUK. I’ll see how I feel in the polling booth.
    > ____________________________
    >
    > www.remainvoter.com may give you useful advice.

    It gives quite misleading advice, because its model breaks if too many people follow the advice. If you want to vote for a Remain party it's better either to vote for the one highest in the polls in your region, or just for the one you like best.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,551
    Jonathan said:

    For a cabinet minister to resign the day before an election is shameful, disrespectful to all those members and voters working for the party.

    Clearly you don't want her to win, wonder why?
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    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,045
    > @rural_voter said:
    > > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > > I shall vote tomorrow, either Lib Dem, Green or CHUK. I’ll see how I feel in the polling booth.
    > ____________________________
    >
    > www.remainvoter.com may give you useful advice.

    Thanks for the link. Brexit is a calamity and those who voted Leave should hang their heads in shame. Morons!
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,403
    Mortimer said:

    Freedom of movement says hello.

    Oh yes that's right we are beholden to the anti-foreigner brigade. Not sure why you're so happy, Brexiters don't read books.
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    The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    I have long been of the opinion that Leadsom is a political and intellectual lightweight.

    I think the Leadsom strategy of quitting at this time is incorrect, surely she would have been better staying in Cabinet and joining other members of the Cabinet in forcing May out. To be honest I don't have much time for May, Leadsom or many other members of the current Cabinet.

    I believe the Tories have screwed this country up in so many ways that it is amazing they have got along with it so long. I cannot believe that Brexit is still going ahead despite the mounting evidence it will achieve none of the promises Leave made and will lead to lower economic growth than our European rivals and will leave us marginalised and irrelevant in European affairs.

    Winston Churchill advocated a three circles concept of international policy for the UK. We will be ditching the EU in which we had a say for a master and servant relationship with the US. How can anyone think that is a sensible policy given Trump!
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    > @Gallowgate said:
    > Freedom of movement says hello.
    >
    > That is such bollocks. Stop rewriting history. Freedom of movement was not put to a referendum and therefore retaining it is not an 'insult to democracy'.
    >
    > This is your fault. Nobody elses.

    You’re the one rewriting history. Leaving the single market put forward as the result of Leave by both Leave and Reemain figures.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,385
    viewcode said:

    ydoethur said:

    @viewcode (rather belatedly fpt)

    viewcode said:

    > @CarlottaVance said:

    >



    Surely Greybull must have some successes, or they would have gone under themselves?
    You buy the company at a deflated price, get funding from the government, strip off all the desirable bits to another company, go bust, buy any desirable assets at pennies to the pound, then eff off and let the taxpayer clean up the mess. I think that's what Alchemy did with Rover IIRC
    Alchemy didn't take on Rover as the then government effectively blockaded them from doing so. Are you referring to Phoenix? They did take it over and to call their conduct of the company's affairs highly questionable would be to dignify it.
    Yes, you are correct. My brain doesn't work as well as it did.
    I only wish Cyclefree had been around to pound them, because what they did was truly shocking, and their support from those bent twats in New Labour barely less so:

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2011/may/08/mg-rover-directors-banned-collapse
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,140
    > @HYUFD said:
    > https://twitter.com/tom_watson/status/1131272001937711106?s=20

    Andrea Leadsom - the compassionate, caring face of the Conservative Party.
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    StreeterStreeter Posts: 684
    GIN1138 said:

    > @HYUFD said:

    >





    Still think Theresa's playing a blinder @HYUFD ? :D
    Marine Le Pen’s still in with a chance, apparently.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,164
    > @Cyclefree said:
    > Frankly, we need a GE. To have another PM foisted on us then foisting a policy on us to suit internal Tory party politics without consulting us is a disgrace.

    Given the only way we get to No Deal is likely with a Boris, Leadsom or Raab majority in an October general election that is very likely, the current Commons will always vote for extension or revoke over No Deal
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,385
    Chris said:

    > @HYUFD said:

    >





    Andrea Leadsom - the compassionate, caring face of the Conservative Party.
    She has no womb for any animosity?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001
    > @isam said:
    > Seeing so many on here struggling to decide where to place their x tomorrow does make me wonder that the public as a whole may just ignore the vote as they do not understand any of it anyway
    >
    > Notorious B.I.G, people on here waaaaay overthink how to vote compared to your average joe

    2 Brexit votes and one "Won't bother" amongst the three colleagues whose VI I know about.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,583
    There's rumours Gove might be quitting.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,164
    > @GIN1138 said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    > > https://twitter.com/Lord_Sugar/status/1131277230057893890?s=20
    >
    > Still think Theresa's playing a blinder @HYUFD ? :disappointed:

    She is still there and Labour MPs from Leave seats now are staring down the barrel of WA, No Deal or Revoke
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,387
    > @Cyclefree said:
    > Frankly, we need a GE. To have another PM foisted on us then foisting a policy on us to suit internal Tory party politics without consulting us is a disgrace.

    It is inevitable. There is no clear majority for anything inside the Tory party, let alone Parliament. Whoever wins the Iron throne will be no more capable of getting their business past this House than May is. The Tory party is completely ungovernable at present and therefore unfit to govern.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,920
    > @Jonathan said:
    > For a cabinet minister to resign the day before an election is shameful, disrespectful to all those members and voters working for the party.
    >
    >

    Everyone in the party is voting for the Brexit Party. :D
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    Macron says Britain MUST leave the EU on Halloween as the French President pledges to block any more delays to Brexit

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7058647/Macron-says-Britain-leave-EU-without-deal-Halloween.html
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001
    > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    > There's rumours Gove might be quitting.

    I wanna know what Gove is
    I want you to show me
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,551
    The correlation between those calling others stupid and those whose own posts have never really sparkled with valuable insight is strong in this thread.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,227
    And the French will not extend. They have been using this time to make themselves attractive to British businesses and will continue to do so.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,446
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,048
    Such unpleasantness - they don't even accept converts, goodness knows why people think Boris will appeal to such types.

    Jonathan said:

    For a cabinet minister to resign the day before an election is shameful, disrespectful to all those members and voters working for the party.

    Clearly you don't want her to win, wonder why?
    I don't care if she wins - her reputation has gone up since 2017 - and while I would not go as far as jonathan, iI don't quite get the point of quitting tonight, not Friday, other than to beat the rush, but then many more beat her to it by many months.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,164
    > @FrancisUrquhart said:
    > Macron says Britain MUST leave the EU on Halloween as the French President pledges to block any more delays to Brexit
    >
    > https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7058647/Macron-says-Britain-leave-EU-without-deal-Halloween.html

    Finally, so MPs either vote for the WA next month or face a revoke or No Deal choice in October
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,920
    > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    > There's rumours Gove might be quitting.

    Gove is ALWAYS plotting something...
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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    > https://twitter.com/labour_history/status/1131277454054744066

    So funny thanks .

    The UK has become a laughing stock . It’s tragic .
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,387
    > @Jonathan said:
    > For a cabinet minister to resign the day before an election is shameful, disrespectful to all those members and voters working for the party.
    >
    >

    I think that you will find that they are working for a different party.
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,517
    edited May 2019
    The TM Plan MK-whatever-we’re-on-now is clearly DOA. It’s time for her to go after the election. I have very little faith that her successor will have any more luck, or will be any more competent, but it’s time to let those saying they’d do so much better put their money where their mouth is.

    I feel sorry for Mrs May. She’s clearly tried. Unfortunately she’s presiding over a hostile house that smells blood and won’t see compromise and there’s little she can do about it now. Power is seeping away.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,446
    Pulpstar said:

    > @TheScreamingEagles said:

    > There's rumours Gove might be quitting.



    I wanna know what Gove is

    I want you to show me

    It's that old sly devil called Gove again
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,164
    > @Streeter said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    >
    > > https://twitter.com/Lord_Sugar/status/1131277230057893890
    >
    >
    >
    >
    >
    > Still think Theresa's playing a blinder @HYUFD ? :D
    >
    > Marine Le Pen’s still in with a chance, apparently.

    Yes, she leads the polls in France for the Europeans
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    mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    Mortimer said:

    Freedom of movement says hello.

    That is such bollocks. Stop rewriting history. Freedom of movement was not put to a referendum and therefore retaining it is not an 'insult to democracy'.

    This is your fault. Nobody elses.
    It is odd, Leavers remember the part from the referendum campaign where their side we were leaving the single market, but forget the bits where their side No Deal was Project Fear and that we'd leave with a deal.

    Can't imagine why.
    There was a “golden rule” that kept being mentioned here. Seems to have been quietly laid to rest.
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    NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    > @Cyclefree said:
    > Frankly, we need a GE. To have another PM foisted on us then foisting a policy on us to suit internal Tory party politics without consulting us is a disgrace.

    It still needs parliamentary approval
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,048
    HYUFD said:

    > @FrancisUrquhart said:

    > Macron says Britain MUST leave the EU on Halloween as the French President pledges to block any more delays to Brexit

    >

    > https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7058647/Macron-says-Britain-leave-EU-without-deal-Halloween.html



    Finally, so MPs either vote for the WA next month or face a revoke or No Deal choice in October

    That would be nice, though I would still be afraid his strong words could be worn away but other less stern voices. It worked once, but he was right, and proven right by how we've wasted the time.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,048

    The correlation between those calling others stupid and those whose own posts have never really sparkled with valuable insight is strong in this thread.

    Hey, I have at least 5 really insightful posts out of 43k, thank you very much, I call that a good ratio.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001
    > @HYUFD said:
    > > @FrancisUrquhart said:
    > > Macron says Britain MUST leave the EU on Halloween as the French President pledges to block any more delays to Brexit
    > >
    > > https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7058647/Macron-says-Britain-leave-EU-without-deal-Halloween.html
    >
    > Finally, so MPs either vote for the WA next month or face a revoke or No Deal choice in October

    Noone really believes Macron's threat as he always wilts under a bit of collective EU pressure.
    Which is bad news for remain if he actually means it this time...
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    I will only listen to Watson when he shows respect for UK voters by acting to remove the poison that is Corbyn and his cabal from the Labour movement. Unless and until he acts to achieve that, he has no right to be heard.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,446

    > @rural_voter said:

    > > @AlastairMeeks said:

    > > I shall vote tomorrow, either Lib Dem, Green or CHUK. I’ll see how I feel in the polling booth.

    > ____________________________

    >

    > www.remainvoter.com may give you useful advice.



    It gives quite misleading advice, because its model breaks if too many people follow the advice. If you want to vote for a Remain party it's better either to vote for the one highest in the polls in your region, or just for the one you like best.

    These are multi-seat constituencies after all.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,048

    > @Cyclefree said:

    > Frankly, we need a GE. To have another PM foisted on us then foisting a policy on us to suit internal Tory party politics without consulting us is a disgrace.



    It still needs parliamentary approval

    INdeed. I have to disagree with cyclefree on this one. If something were to pass it would not be a disgrace, it is how our system works that you don't have to go back to the people if parliament can agree. What it would be is very silly.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,227

    When Farage and TBP wins overnight on Sunday, do we see the creation of a TBP parliamentary group with defections from the ERG and their fellow travellers or do they stay in the hope of getting someone they like from within the Tory Party into the top job?



    I am genuinely not sure which way they will jump. Forcing the collapse of government and an election in a matter of weeks, they could hope to ride on the populist wave that could sweep TBP into power.



    I don't believe a TBP parliamentary win is possible - but at the moment, I don't think anything is impossible.

    If Tory MPs defect to TBP, the Tories lose their majority. Corbyn rubs his hands with glee.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,551
    kle4 said:

    The correlation between those calling others stupid and those whose own posts have never really sparkled with valuable insight is strong in this thread.

    Hey, I have at least 5 really insightful posts out of 43k, thank you very much, I call that a good ratio.
    That comment wasn't directed at you; I haven't read any posts by you calling people stupid in this thread.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,002

    The correlation between those calling others stupid and those whose own posts have never really sparkled with valuable insight is strong in this thread.

    Some of the rickets made by those who repeatedly call others stupid are too embarrassing to mention
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    Any of the Brains Trust here back Leadsom as next out the Cabinet?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    So the cabinet member with the largest cohones turns out to be a woman...
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,387
    > @FrancisUrquhart said:
    > Macron says Britain MUST leave the EU on Halloween as the French President pledges to block any more delays to Brexit
    >
    > https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7058647/Macron-says-Britain-leave-EU-without-deal-Halloween.html

    It is a cruel irony that Macron may be the only person who can now deliver Brexit.
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    > @Cyclefree said:
    > When Farage and TBP wins overnight on Sunday, do we see the creation of a TBP parliamentary group with defections from the ERG and their fellow travellers or do they stay in the hope of getting someone they like from within the Tory Party into the top job?
    >
    >
    >
    > I am genuinely not sure which way they will jump. Forcing the collapse of government and an election in a matter of weeks, they could hope to ride on the populist wave that could sweep TBP into power.
    >
    >
    >
    > I don't believe a TBP parliamentary win is possible - but at the moment, I don't think anything is impossible.
    >
    > If Tory MPs defect to TBP, the Tories lose their majority. Corbyn rubs his hands with glee.

    But he also can't form a stable coalition. There aren't the votes for him to win a vote of confidence. So we head to an election
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,048
    nico67 said:

    > @TheScreamingEagles said:

    >





    So funny thanks .



    The UK has become a laughing stock . It’s tragic .
    I ask once again, so what? I don't know why people get so concerned with being laughed at. We all have difficult politics sometimes, particularly when a nation is very divided. It will provoke concern, regret and yes, amusement among others. But you get through it, or not, and deal with the new situation afterwards, as indeed they will in return, and then we will laugh at them when they have a crisis. It's not irrelevant to note our crisis provokes amusement, but people get so worked up about it, acting like that alone means we should not do something, or indeed must do something. Sometimes nations might get laughed at for things which are perfectly right for them, even if no one else agrees. The logic of those wetting themselves because we are getting laughed at in a low moment is that we should only do that which others agree with.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,920
    > @Scott_P said:
    > So the cabinet member with the largest cohones turns out to be a woman...

    As is often the case in politics...
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,048

    kle4 said:

    The correlation between those calling others stupid and those whose own posts have never really sparkled with valuable insight is strong in this thread.

    Hey, I have at least 5 really insightful posts out of 43k, thank you very much, I call that a good ratio.
    That comment wasn't directed at you; I haven't read any posts by you calling people stupid in this thread.
    Didn't think it was, just couldn't resist.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,387
    > @numbertwelve said:
    > The TM Plan MK-whatever-we’re-on-now is clearly DOA. It’s time for her to go after the election. I have very little faith that her successor will have any more luck, or will be any more competent, but it’s time to let those saying they’d do so much better put their money where their mouth is.
    >
    > I feel sorry for Mrs May. She’s clearly tried. Unfortunately she’s presiding over a hostile house that smells blood and won’t see compromise and there’s little she can do about it now. Power is seeping away.

    Interesting choice of tense.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    > @Pulpstar said:
    > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    > > There's rumours Gove might be quitting.
    >
    > I wanna know what Gove is
    > I want you to show me

    Gove will tear us apart.....
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    isamisam Posts: 41,002
    ...
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    MauveMauve Posts: 129
    Even if there is a General Election what policy do the Conservatives stand on? If they go full on No Deal then a not insignificant number of MPs and voters will defect to LD / CUK letting Corbyn in. If they go for a moderate Brexit then the ERG and Farage will stand against them and split the vote, again letting Corbyn in.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,790
    edited May 2019
    > @Alistair said:
    > Get my political epitaph in early. Theresa May was an incompetent prime minister. It probably made no difference to the Brexit outcome as any likely alternative Conservative leader would have hit the same issues and there just wasn't a big enough Conservative majority in the House of Commons to steam roller it through. Theresa May worked her guts out for Brexit, but the project was doomed from the start. It's now about how we deal with the failure.
    >
    > May had a decent majority, then fucked it in an extended moment of hubris.

    --------

    But not a big enough majority to get Brexit through, it seems. Problem is, the only workable form of Brexit is where we do what the EU tells us and get less. So why do we leave? No-one has worked that one out.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,583
    edited May 2019
    One for @Cyclefree.

    Also aren't the Heads of Compliance/ Legal & Regulatory Affairs in Financial Services thick as mince?

    A city worker who fell off a spiked security gate while trying to get into his £1 million mews home is suing for more than £100,000 in compensation.

    Carlos Reguero Perez, 49, says he was “carrying his evening meal” as he returned to the rented Hampstead flat at 10.30pm to discover the newly-installed gate, and fell heavily onto concrete after trying to climb over it.

    He blames lettings agent Savills for his injuries, including a fractured spine and brain damage, and is seeking six-figure damages from the firm.

    Mr Perez, who is head of compliance for Santander in London according to his online profile, says he was taken by surprise that the security measure had “gone live”, and claims the agents failed to give him an access code or fob to open the gates.

    Savills (UK) Ltd denies being to blame for his injuries, saying he “acted in reckless disregard for his own safety by climbing the gate”. Central London county court heard Mr Perez returned home at 10.30pm on February 4, 2015 to find he was locked out, and got no answer from buzzing neighbours.

    He decided “in the agony of the moment” that he had no choice but to scale the gates, according to papers lodged with the court by his lawyers, but lost his footing. He says a “moderate traumatic brain injury” has left his eyes very sensitive to light which means he has to wear sunglasses, and he suffers from ongoing psychological effects.


    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/city-worker-sues-letting-agent-after-injuring-himself-climbing-new-gate-at-1m-home-a4148671.html
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,387
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,227
    Much as I’d like to pound the Phoenix frau ..... directors, what I’d really like to do is ask Andrea Leadsom and other resigning Cabinet Ministers:-
    1. What advice they’ve been given about the impact of a No Deal exit;
    2. The steps that could be taken in mitigation and their costsn
    3. What cannot be mitigated and the risk assessments of these; and
    4. Whether they will agree to publish all the advice and supporting material and risk assessments in full.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,048
    Mauve said:

    Even if there is a General Election what policy do the Conservatives stand on? If they go full on No Deal then a not insignificant number of MPs and voters will defect to LD / CUK letting Corbyn in. If they go for a moderate Brexit then the ERG and Farage will stand against them and split the vote, again letting Corbyn in.

    It's why the best approach for them for a long time was get some sort of Brexit through, hand on until 2022 with a new leader and hope to rebuild with a new offer.

    But the Grievers and ERGers would not wear it. Now the hope is entirely that whatever shambles they put up, people will not vote for Corbyn enough (even though LD defections could prove fatal too). It's a blind hope.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    > @FF43 said:
    > > @Alistair said:
    > > Get my political epitaph in early. Theresa May was an incompetent prime minister. It probably made no difference to the Brexit outcome as any likely alternative Conservative leader would have hit the same issues and there just wasn't a big enough Conservative majority in the House of Commons to steam roller it through. Theresa May worked her guts out for Brexit, but the project was doomed from the start. It's now about how we deal with the failure.
    > >
    > > May had a decent majority, then fucked it in an extended moment of hubris.
    >
    > --------
    >
    > But not a big enough majority to get Brexit through, it seems. Problem is, the only workable form of Brexit is where we do what the EU tells us and get less. So why do we leave? No-one has worked that one out.

    But both the Remainers and the ERG would have been robbed of the cover of the DUP blocking the deal. Failing to deliver Brexit would have solely been a Tory problem.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001
    > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    > One for @Cyclefree.
    >
    > Also aren't the Heads of Compliance/ Legal & Regulatory Affairs in Financial Services thick as mince?
    >
    > A city worker who fell off a spiked security gate while trying to get into his £1 million mews home is suing for more than £100,000 in compensation.
    >
    > Carlos Reguero Perez, 49, says he was “carrying his evening meal” as he returned to the rented Hampstead flat at 10.30pm to discover the newly-installed gate, and fell heavily onto concrete after trying to climb over it.
    >
    > He blames lettings agent Savills for his injuries, including a fractured spine and brain damage, and is seeking six-figure damages from the firm.
    >
    > Mr Perez, who is head of compliance for Santander in London according to his online profile, says he was taken by surprise that the security measure had “gone live”, and claims the agents failed to give him an access code or fob to open the gates.
    >
    > Savills (UK) Ltd denies being to blame for his injuries, saying he “acted in reckless disregard for his own safety by climbing the gate”. Central London county court heard Mr Perez returned home at 10.30pm on February 4, 2015 to find he was locked out, and got no answer from buzzing neighbours.
    >
    > He decided “in the agony of the moment” that he had no choice but to scale the gates, according to papers lodged with the court by his lawyers, but lost his footing. He says a “moderate traumatic brain injury” has left his eyes very sensitive to light which means he has to wear sunglasses, and he suffers from ongoing psychological effects.
    >
    > https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/city-worker-sues-letting-agent-after-injuring-himself-climbing-new-gate-at-1m-home-a4148671.html

    That, right there is the entitlted Londerati. Off he can fuck.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    > @Cyclefree said:
    > When Farage and TBP wins overnight on Sunday, do we see the creation of a TBP parliamentary group with defections from the ERG and their fellow travellers or do they stay in the hope of getting someone they like from within the Tory Party into the top job?
    >
    >
    >
    > I am genuinely not sure which way they will jump. Forcing the collapse of government and an election in a matter of weeks, they could hope to ride on the populist wave that could sweep TBP into power.
    >
    >
    >
    > I don't believe a TBP parliamentary win is possible - but at the moment, I don't think anything is impossible.
    >
    > If Tory MPs defect to TBP, the Tories lose their majority. Corbyn rubs his hands with glee.

    Great stuff as they also get barred from running as tories in the next general election too presumably
This discussion has been closed.