> @Chris said: > You can just see what's going to happen, can't you? The Tories melt down tomorrow, with the Brexit Party triumphant. The Tory MPs panic wildly and stampede into No Deal. And the aftermath of that obliterates what's left.
Would have been a good moment for an Opposition VONC - get credit for forcing May out, or force the Tories to stick with her.
> @kle4 said: > As caretaker PM I think most would see it as a fair compromise. > > I disagree. The Tory party are a bunch of Corbynesque fanatics - the last thing most of them want is a compromise, fair or not. > > Nevertheless, I feel a dilemma. While I now think we should remain, I did very much back the deal and this might be the chance to register support for that outcome at an election. But that would mean rewarding the pathetic shower that is the Tory party. On the other hand the LDs might be able to sneak a second seat if I back them, but they have been quite extremist for a long time on Brexit, and should I reward that? CUK deserve something for boldness but don't seem to offer anything, a vote Labour would be fine but they seem somewhat confused about just how remainy or not they are. BXP and UKIp have at least attempted to get my vote through leaflets but, er, no, no thanks. > > So I think I might boil it down to the final two and toss a coin.
I still think TM will stay in post but to be fair you could be correct
I have no problem with my vote. I am a conservative party member and I voted conservative
In 12 hours I will be voting in an election. I do not yet know whom I will vote for. I am no closer to deciding than I was a week ago. I've never struggled to make up my mind as much as this before.
I’ve laid off some of mine. I fancy that the prices will shorten again further before the week is out.
He is part of my trinity of major moneymakers on the next PM market, together with Jacob Rees-Mogg and Jeremy Corbyn. Gawd bless that unlikely trio.
Sometimes I think I am a really crap political bettor.
I laid off last time round this happened. And then forgot to anticipate it could happen again, and reback him again once the odds drifted out high again.
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @kle4 said: > > As caretaker PM I think most would see it as a fair compromise. > > > > I disagree. The Tory party are a bunch of Corbynesque fanatics - the last thing most of them want is a compromise, fair or not. > > > > Nevertheless, I feel a dilemma. While I now think we should remain, I did very much back the deal and this might be the chance to register support for that outcome at an election. But that would mean rewarding the pathetic shower that is the Tory party. On the other hand the LDs might be able to sneak a second seat if I back them, but they have been quite extremist for a long time on Brexit, and should I reward that? CUK deserve something for boldness but don't seem to offer anything, a vote Labour would be fine but they seem somewhat confused about just how remainy or not they are. BXP and UKIp have at least attempted to get my vote through leaflets but, er, no, no thanks. > > > > So I think I might boil it down to the final two and toss a coin. > > I still think TM will stay in post but to be fair you could be correct > > I have no problem with my vote. I am a conservative party member and I voted conservative
Are there any leadership candidates who you'd leave your membership should they win?
> @AlastairMeeks said: > > @Omnium said: > > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > I’ve already laid off my Lidington. > > > > > > I’ve laid off some of mine. I fancy that the prices will shorten again further before the week is out. > > > > > > He is part of my trinity of major moneymakers on the next PM market, together with Jacob Rees-Mogg and Jeremy Corbyn. Gawd bless that unlikely trio. > > > > Surely you've indulged in the free money that has been David Millband too? > > > > (Easily my best result from the clown-spotter) > > Oh yes, and Nigel Farage too recently. But they are next tier down for me.
Interesting.
I absolutely love these long term markets. I can make a small profit (mainly from others foolishness, rather than my wisdom) but I mainly just love them for the intellectual challenge.
(PS when I say something is interesting I actually mean what I say)
> @ah009 said: > In 12 hours I will be voting in an election. I do not yet know whom I will vote for. > I am no closer to deciding than I was a week ago. I've never struggled to make up my mind as much as this before.
I don't know either, except I've ruled out Con, Lab and UKIP.
> @NickPalmer said: > > @Chris said: > > You can just see what's going to happen, can't you? The Tories melt down tomorrow, with the Brexit Party triumphant. The Tory MPs panic wildly and stampede into No Deal. And the aftermath of that obliterates what's left. > > Would have been a good moment for an Opposition VONC - get credit for forcing May out, or force the Tories to stick with her.
> @kle4 said: > So what on earth will we have to witter on about tomorrow. Is there going to be a thread on voting systems? > > Only if we are very good. Surely it should be nothing but an examination of the merits and flaws of d'hondt.
I did think about doing a thread header about what different poll shares might mean for seat counts for different parties but decided that was too geeky even for here.
> @ah009 said: > In 12 hours I will be voting in an election. I do not yet know whom I will vote for. > I am no closer to deciding than I was a week ago. I've never struggled to make up my mind as much as this before.
Do I support LD as I originally voted to remain, Conservative as I support the withdrawal agreement or Brexit Party because I just want it over as soon as possible.
If you are struggling to make up your mind perhaps you could vote Labour
> As caretaker PM I think most would see it as a fair compromise.
>
> I disagree. The Tory party are a bunch of Corbynesque fanatics - the last thing most of them want is a compromise, fair or not.
>
> Nevertheless, I feel a dilemma. While I now think we should remain, I did very much back the deal and this might be the chance to register support for that outcome at an election. But that would mean rewarding the pathetic shower that is the Tory party. On the other hand the LDs might be able to sneak a second seat if I back them, but they have been quite extremist for a long time on Brexit, and should I reward that? CUK deserve something for boldness but don't seem to offer anything, a vote Labour would be fine but they seem somewhat confused about just how remainy or not they are. BXP and UKIp have at least attempted to get my vote through leaflets but, er, no, no thanks.
>
> So I think I might boil it down to the final two and toss a coin.
I still think TM will stay in post but to be fair you could be correct
I have no problem with my vote. I am a conservative party member and I voted conservative
------------------ And when every single leadership candidate with prospects commits to no deal (including unicorn 'no deal if the EU does not back down, etc etc')?
> @Stereotomy said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @kle4 said: > > > As caretaker PM I think most would see it as a fair compromise. > > > > > > I disagree. The Tory party are a bunch of Corbynesque fanatics - the last thing most of them want is a compromise, fair or not. > > > > > > Nevertheless, I feel a dilemma. While I now think we should remain, I did very much back the deal and this might be the chance to register support for that outcome at an election. But that would mean rewarding the pathetic shower that is the Tory party. On the other hand the LDs might be able to sneak a second seat if I back them, but they have been quite extremist for a long time on Brexit, and should I reward that? CUK deserve something for boldness but don't seem to offer anything, a vote Labour would be fine but they seem somewhat confused about just how remainy or not they are. BXP and UKIp have at least attempted to get my vote through leaflets but, er, no, no thanks. > > > > > > So I think I might boil it down to the final two and toss a coin. > > > > I still think TM will stay in post but to be fair you could be correct > > > > I have no problem with my vote. I am a conservative party member and I voted conservative > > Are there any leadership candidates who you'd leave your membership should they win?
Baker and Francois but as for anyone else it will depend on the hustings and the direction of the party under a new leader and the new cabinet appointments
> @JohnO said: > > @Jonathan said: > > > @JohnO said: > > > I strongly supported May’s deal and will vote Conservative tomorrow. But I’ll shed few tears should the BP outperform expectations and poll towards 40%. She’s got to go and I just can’t see any alternative to Johnson or Raab becoming leader and the U.K. slouching to a No Deal Brexit. It’ll probably end in tears (who knows) but it’s the course I now feel we have to tread. > > > > Can't you knock a few heads together and come up with someone a little more sensible than Raab C Brexit or Boris 'the ego' Johnson? > > Oh, the Baker, Bridgen, Francois, Jenkyns crowd will have won. Hate it, but there you go. The Flint, Nancy, Cooper, Benn mob on your side played for high stakes in their hope that scuppering the flawed May deal would lead to revoke or a referendum. It won’t. They should have looked beyond narrow advantage and realised that the best is usually the enemy of the good. But they didn’t. And serves them right.
You can’t proclaim a winner until we we know what’s happened . The last few years has shown that making forecasts is a fools game . I have no idea what the end result will be and neither do the political commentators .
If people 3 months ago had said we’d be holding EU elections and that the UK would still be in the EU and won’t be leaving till October no one would have believed it .
> @Nemtynakht said: > > @ah009 said: > > In 12 hours I will be voting in an election. I do not yet know whom I will vote for. > > I am no closer to deciding than I was a week ago. I've never struggled to make up my mind as much as this before. > > Do I support LD as I originally voted to remain, Conservative as I support the withdrawal agreement or Brexit Party because I just want it over as soon as possible. > > If you are struggling to make up your mind perhaps you could vote Labour
Vote Labour so someone else can be indecisive for me?
> @ah009 said: > In 12 hours I will be voting in an election. I do not yet know whom I will vote for. > I am no closer to deciding than I was a week ago. I've never struggled to make up my mind as much as this before.<
However, other countries start to count earlier. European Parliament is expected to start give out estimations after 6PM with Germany, Austria, Netherlands, Greece, Malta, Ireland and Cyprus the first to give indications
Finland is expected to be the first final result at 22.00
> @AndyJS said: > > @AndreaParma_82 said: > > Italy polls close at 11PM local time which is 10pm for you > > > > > > > @AndyJS said: > > > > @AndreaParma_82 said: > > > > Tomorrow is voting day also in the Netherlands for Euro elections. > > > > > > > > Ireland vote on Friday > > > > > > > > Saturday: Slovakia, Malta and Latvia > > > > > > > > Guadeloupe, Martinique, Guyane, Saint-Barhélémy, Saint-Martin, Saint-Pierre et-Miquelon and Polynésie Française also vote on Saturday. > > > > > > > > Remaining countries vote on Sunday > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Do the final polls close on Sunday at 9pm British time or 10pm? > > > > > > Thanks, that explains why we have to wait until 10pm to start counting the votes. I think it's earlier in most countries (close of polling).
> > I strongly supported May’s deal and will vote Conservative tomorrow. But I’ll shed few tears should the BP outperform expectations and poll towards 40%. She’s got to go and I just can’t see any alternative to Johnson or Raab becoming leader and the U.K. slouching to a No Deal Brexit. It’ll probably end in tears (who knows) but it’s the course I now feel we have to tread.
>
> Can't you knock a few heads together and come up with someone a little more sensible than Raab C Brexit or Boris 'the ego' Johnson?
Oh, the Baker, Bridgen, Francois, Jenkyns crowd will have won. Hate it, but there you go. The Flint, Nancy, Cooper, Benn mob on your side played for high stakes in their hope that scuppering the flawed May deal would lead to revoke or a referendum. It won’t. They should have looked beyond narrow advantage and realised that the best is usually the enemy of the good. But they didn’t. And serves them right.
Exactly. Except not Flint. She’s been sensible throughout.
It’s Labour who have also been instrumental in shooting this down, and are doing it even now.
As far as I can tell May is giving them everything they wanted and they are *still* opposing it wholeheartedly.
What Labour want is the destruction of the Tory party, which is what they are getting.
The stupid Francois lot will get their No Deal Brexit and hand a weakened country to Corbyn. The malicious damaging fools.
I strongly supported May’s deal and will vote Conservative tomorrow. But I’ll shed few tears should the BP outperform expectations and poll towards 40%. She’s got to go and I just can’t see any alternative to Johnson or Raab becoming leader and the U.K. slouching to a No Deal Brexit. It’ll probably end in tears (who knows) but it’s the course I now feel we have to tread.
Why the hell should the country suffer to satisfy the loons in the Tory party and a party which has no MPs in Parliament and whose leader has failed in all his attempts at becoming an MP?
The way Tories regularly conflate what is in their interests with what is in the country’s interests is despicable. Drive your own bus over a cliff if you must. But stop including the rest of us in your “we”.
This isn’t about the Tories. They are just a vehicle.
In case you hadn’t noticed it isn’t the mid noughties anymore with this being a fringe opinion. The country is totally split down the middle with basically half the voters wanting Out and looking for any available vehicle to get it.
They’re not going to go away and nor will they stay silent. They are going to tell in our political system whether you like it or not.
Revoke or revocation simply isn’t going to happen unless the Government radically changes. If it does, there will still be awful fallout for a very long time and it will neither settle nor end the matter.
> @kle4 said: > > @kle4 said: > > > As caretaker PM I think most would see it as a fair compromise. > > > > > > I disagree. The Tory party are a bunch of Corbynesque fanatics - the last thing most of them want is a compromise, fair or not. > > > > > > Nevertheless, I feel a dilemma. While I now think we should remain, I did very much back the deal and this might be the chance to register support for that outcome at an election. But that would mean rewarding the pathetic shower that is the Tory party. On the other hand the LDs might be able to sneak a second seat if I back them, but they have been quite extremist for a long time on Brexit, and should I reward that? CUK deserve something for boldness but don't seem to offer anything, a vote Labour would be fine but they seem somewhat confused about just how remainy or not they are. BXP and UKIp have at least attempted to get my vote through leaflets but, er, no, no thanks. > > > > > > So I think I might boil it down to the final two and toss a coin. > > > > I still think TM will stay in post but to be fair you could be correct > > > > I have no problem with my vote. I am a conservative party member and I voted conservative > > ------------------ > And when every single leadership candidate with prospects commits to no deal (including unicorn 'no deal if the EU does not back down, etc etc')?
That may well be but that in itself will not see me resign unless it becomes a reality
> @AndyJS said: > > @ah009 said: > > In 12 hours I will be voting in an election. I do not yet know whom I will vote for. > > I am no closer to deciding than I was a week ago. I've never struggled to make up my mind as much as this before. > > I don't know either, except I've ruled out Con, Lab and UKIP.
Those three I've also ruled out. Probably for the rest of my life, but we'll see.
> So what on earth will we have to witter on about tomorrow. Is there going to be a thread on voting systems?
>
> Only if we are very good. Surely it should be nothing but an examination of the merits and flaws of d'hondt.
I did think about doing a thread header about what different poll shares might mean for seat counts for different parties but decided that was too geeky even for here.
> > I strongly supported May’s deal and will vote Conservative tomorrow. But I’ll shed few tears should the BP outperform expectations and poll towards 40%. She’s got to go and I just can’t see any alternative to Johnson or Raab becoming leader and the U.K. slouching to a No Deal Brexit. It’ll probably end in tears (who knows) but it’s the course I now feel we have to tread.
>
> Can't you knock a few heads together and come up with someone a little more sensible than Raab C Brexit or Boris 'the ego' Johnson?
Oh, the Baker, Bridgen, Francois, Jenkyns crowd will have won. Hate it, but there you go. The Flint, Nancy, Cooper, Benn mob on your side played for high stakes in their hope that scuppering the flawed May deal would lead to revoke or a referendum. It won’t. They should have looked beyond narrow advantage and realised that the best is usually the enemy of the good. But they didn’t. And serves them right.
Exactly. Except not Flint. She’s been sensible throughout.
It’s Labour who have also been instrumental in shooting this down, and are doing it even now.
As far as I can tell May is giving them everything they wanted and they are *still* opposing it wholeheartedly.
What Labour want is the destruction of the Tory party, which is what they are getting.
The stupid Francois lot will get their No Deal Brexit and hand a weakened country to Corbyn. The malicious damaging fools.
Their sense of purity will reassure them all is well.
> Revoke or revocation simply isn’t going to happen unless the Government radically changes. If it does, there will still be awful fallout for a very long time and it will neither settle nor end the matter.
> @Casino_Royale said: > I strongly supported May’s deal and will vote Conservative tomorrow. But I’ll shed few tears should the BP outperform expectations and poll towards 40%. She’s got to go and I just can’t see any alternative to Johnson or Raab becoming leader and the U.K. slouching to a No Deal Brexit. It’ll probably end in tears (who knows) but it’s the course I now feel we have to tread. > > Why the hell should the country suffer to satisfy the loons in the Tory party and a party which has no MPs in Parliament and whose leader has failed in all his attempts at becoming an MP? > > The way Tories regularly conflate what is in their interests with what is in the country’s interests is despicable. Drive your own bus over a cliff if you must. But stop including the rest of us in your “we”. > > This isn’t about the Tories. They are just a vehicle. > > In case you hadn’t noticed it isn’t the mid noughties anymore with this being a fringe opinion. The country is totally split down the middle with basically half the voters wanting Out and looking for any available vehicle to get it. > > They’re not going to go away and nor will they stay silent. They are going to tell in our political system whether you like it or not. > > Revoke or revocation simply isn’t going to happen unless the Government radically changes. If it does, there will still be awful fallout for a very long time and it will neither settle nor end the matter.
The same applies to no deal Brexit. With the difference that jobs will be lost, lives will be disrupted and put at risk and the mandate for no deal Brexit is even worse than that for revoke.
> > I strongly supported May’s deal and will vote Conservative tomorrow. But I’ll shed few tears should the BP outperform expectations and poll towards 40%. She’s got to go and I just can’t see any alternative to Johnson or Raab becoming leader and the U.K. slouching to a No Deal Brexit. It’ll probably end in tears (who knows) but it’s the course I now feel we have to tread.
>
> Can't you knock a few heads together and come up with someone a little more sensible than Raab C Brexit or Boris 'the ego' Johnson?
Oh, the Baker, Bridgen, Francois, Jenkyns crowd will have won. Hate it, but there you go. The Flint, Nancy, Cooper, Benn mob on your side played for high stakes in their hope that scuppering the flawed May deal would lead to revoke or a referendum. It won’t. They should have looked beyond narrow advantage and realised that the best is usually the enemy of the good. But they didn’t. And serves them right.
Exactly. Except not Flint. She’s been sensible throughout.
It’s Labour who have also been instrumental in shooting this down, and are doing it even now.
As far as I can tell May is giving them everything they wanted and they are *still* opposing it wholeheartedly.
What Labour want is the destruction of the Tory party, which is what they are getting.
The stupid Francois lot will get their No Deal Brexit and hand a weakened country to Corbyn. The malicious damaging fools.
And they might rip themselves to shreds in the process. Their polling is also appalling.
It’s beyond stupid, as the very bright James Kanagasooriam has pointed out.
Looking at that BMG poll, if it is right (I sense it might be, though perhaps a bit toppy on BXP) then the CUKs, by refusing to do a deal with the Lib Dems, have possibly prevented a clear Remain party coming second. The Greens are similarly to blame.
I have unexpectedly had to spend the night in Edinburgh and am committed to being here tomorrow night too. I am wondering if an emergency proxy is worth the faff, especially as my initial instincts were not to vote at all.
My concern now is that the Tory party could completely collapse. This is not just a question of May, who I have always said should have been got rid of immediately after the 2017 fiasco. It is the issue of whether we are to have a moderate centre right party in this country. It is no longer something we can take for granted.
I think I will give it a go. The end of days is upon us.
This woman told Osborne to go and learn more about his party. Just mind blowing.
Seeing so many on here struggling to decide where to place their x tomorrow does make me wonder that the public as a whole may just ignore the vote as they do not understand any of it anyway
> @DavidL said: > I have unexpectedly had to spend the night in Edinburgh and am committed to being here tomorrow night too. I am wondering if an emergency proxy is worth the faff, especially as my initial instincts were not to vote at all. > > My concern now is that the Tory party could completely collapse. This is not just a question of May, who I have always said should have been got rid of immediately after the 2017 fiasco. It is the issue of whether we are to have a moderate centre right party in this country. It is no longer something we can take for granted. > > I think I will give it a go. The end of days is upon us. > > This woman told Osborne to go and learn more about his party. Just mind blowing.
I'm sure there'll always be a centre-right party in the UK, it's just a question of whether it's going to continue to be the Conservatives.
If I was any normal sort of person then I'd be abstaining - I think I'll be voting for https://www.independentnetwork.org.uk/sites/default/files/East Midlands Leaflet May 2019.pdf this lot. They don't have a hope of winning a seat, which is good as I don't want to give brexiteers any real power, and psephologists will ponder whether people meant to vote for Change UK, The Independent group instead of this lot. I really don't fancy another referendum, both the Tories and Labour are a shower and I don't think Farage needs any more help. Whilst I enjoy watching the UKIP sideshow too I don't think they should be given a seat either so TIN it is.
> @Cyclefree said: > > @Jonathan said: > > > > @JohnO said: > > > > I strongly supported May’s deal and will vote Conservative tomorrow. But I’ll shed few tears should the BP outperform expectations and poll towards 40%. She’s got to go and I just can’t see any alternative to Johnson or Raab becoming leader and the U.K. slouching to a No Deal Brexit. It’ll probably end in tears (who knows) but it’s the course I now feel we have to tread. > > > > > > Can't you knock a few heads together and come up with someone a little more sensible than Raab C Brexit or Boris 'the ego' Johnson? > > > > Oh, the Baker, Bridgen, Francois, Jenkyns crowd will have won. Hate it, but there you go. The Flint, Nancy, Cooper, Benn mob on your side played for high stakes in their hope that scuppering the flawed May deal would lead to revoke or a referendum. It won’t. They should have looked beyond narrow advantage and realised that the best is usually the enemy of the good. But they didn’t. And serves them right. > > Exactly. Except not Flint. She’s been sensible throughout. > > It’s Labour who have also been instrumental in shooting this down, and are doing it even now. > > As far as I can tell May is giving them everything they wanted and they are *still* opposing it wholeheartedly. > > What Labour want is the destruction of the Tory party, which is what they are getting. > > The stupid Francois lot will get their No Deal Brexit and hand a weakened country to Corbyn. The malicious damaging fools.
A Corbyn heading to the lowest Labour share of the vote since 1910 tomorrow according to the latest Yougov?
No the momentum is all with Farage and his Brexit Party and the LDs at the moment, Corbyn Labour is in almost as bad a state as the Tories.
Over 80% of voters voted Tory and Labour at the last general election, tomorrow it is likely less than 40% will that is how angry Leavers and indeed Remainers feel with the 2 main parties
> @ah009 said: > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > I shall vote tomorrow, either Lib Dem, Green or CHUK. I’ll see how I feel in the polling booth. > > There's a real chance that CHUK will be a wasted vote. Polling looks bad for them. > But that depends on whether you care about MEP numbers.
As I have explained previously, I might vote CHUK for the same reason I sort of regret not taking the opportunity to go home with a man from Greenland: the opportunity might not come again.
> I strongly supported May’s deal and will vote Conservative tomorrow. But I’ll shed few tears should the BP outperform expectations and poll towards 40%. She’s got to go and I just can’t see any alternative to Johnson or Raab becoming leader and the U.K. slouching to a No Deal Brexit. It’ll probably end in tears (who knows) but it’s the course I now feel we have to tread.
>
> Why the hell should the country suffer to satisfy the loons in the Tory party and a party which has no MPs in Parliament and whose leader has failed in all his attempts at becoming an MP?
>
> The way Tories regularly conflate what is in their interests with what is in the country’s interests is despicable. Drive your own bus over a cliff if you must. But stop including the rest of us in your “we”.
>
> This isn’t about the Tories. They are just a vehicle.
>
> In case you hadn’t noticed it isn’t the mid noughties anymore with this being a fringe opinion. The country is totally split down the middle with basically half the voters wanting Out and looking for any available vehicle to get it.
>
> They’re not going to go away and nor will they stay silent. They are going to tell in our political system whether you like it or not.
>
> Revoke or revocation simply isn’t going to happen unless the Government radically changes. If it does, there will still be awful fallout for a very long time and it will neither settle nor end the matter.
The same applies to no deal Brexit. With the difference that jobs will be lost, lives will be disrupted and put at risk and the mandate for no deal Brexit is even worse than that for revoke.
It isn’t, because it’s still the implementation of the original decision rather than sticking a giant two fingers up to it on account of some choice polling trends as justification.
I agree there will be major political blowback from No Deal as well. I think it’d be worse with Revoke.
> @kle4 said: > Do people see May staying as an MP? Feels difficult with the way she has been treated by her "party". Another by election coming? Another reduction in the majority? > > I hope she sticks around. It will be rough, but if things go even further to shit, or we Remain, and I were her, I'd want to be there to tell them. None of the last five people to take over as Prime Minister mid-term, Lord Home, Jim Callaghan, John Major, Gordon Brown and Theresa May herself, have called an immediate General Election in the same year. > > > > Nowadays the PM no longer has the power to 'call' one, they have to take place every 5 years unless MPs themselves want an earlier one. > > > > Opposition MPs don't have much to lose but why would government MPs vote for an early election when they are behind in the opinion polls? > > For some reason many of them seem to think taking a firm no deal position will see them rewarded massively by the public.
No deal will be very popular until about 10.45 am on No Deal Brexit Day. Seriously- there are lots of examples of pure populism starting well; are there any of it ending well?
> @AndyJS said: > > @DavidL said: > > I have unexpectedly had to spend the night in Edinburgh and am committed to being here tomorrow night too. I am wondering if an emergency proxy is worth the faff, especially as my initial instincts were not to vote at all. > > > > My concern now is that the Tory party could completely collapse. This is not just a question of May, who I have always said should have been got rid of immediately after the 2017 fiasco. It is the issue of whether we are to have a moderate centre right party in this country. It is no longer something we can take for granted. > > > > I think I will give it a go. The end of days is upon us. > > > > This woman told Osborne to go and learn more about his party. Just mind blowing. > > I'm sure there'll always be a centre-right party in the UK, it's just a question of whether it's going to continue to be the Conservatives.
I would not class their potential replacement at the moment as centre right. Or completely sane for that matter. But a flight to the extremes with all the instability that brings is looking very likely right now.
> Revoke or revocation simply isn’t going to happen unless the Government radically changes. If it does, there will still be awful fallout for a very long time and it will neither settle nor end the matter.
That is true for all outcomes now.
It’s not six of one or half-a-dozen of the other. We *have* to Leave now or I fear our entire democratic consensus behind our Government in this country could collapse.
If forced between Revoke or No Deal, I would choose the latter.
I strongly supported May’s deal and will vote Conservative tomorrow. But I’ll shed few tears should the BP outperform expectations and poll towards 40%. She’s got to go and I just can’t see any alternative to Johnson or Raab becoming leader and the U.K. slouching to a No Deal Brexit. It’ll probably end in tears (who knows) but it’s the course I now feel we have to tread.
Why the hell should the country suffer to satisfy the loons in the Tory party and a party which has no MPs in Parliament and whose leader has failed in all his attempts at becoming an MP?
The way Tories regularly conflate what is in their interests with what is in the country’s interests is despicable. Drive your own bus over a cliff if you must. But stop including the rest of us in your “we”.
This isn’t about the Tories. They are just a vehicle.
In case you hadn’t noticed it isn’t the mid noughties anymore with this being a fringe opinion. The country is totally split down the middle with basically half the voters wanting Out and looking for any available vehicle to get it.
They’re not going to go away and nor will they stay silent. They are going to tell in our political system whether you like it or not.
Revoke or revocation simply isn’t going to happen unless the Government radically changes. If it does, there will still be awful fallout for a very long time and it will neither settle nor end the matter.
It is worrying how so many Leavers have gone from saying in 2016 that No Deal was just Project Fear to No Deal is the only true Brexit in 2019.
I used to get mocked for this article, but I reckon it is going to happen.
> @DavidL said: > I have unexpectedly had to spend the night in Edinburgh and am committed to being here tomorrow night too. I am wondering if an emergency proxy is worth the faff, especially as my initial instincts were not to vote at all. > > My concern now is that the Tory party could completely collapse. This is not just a question of May, who I have always said should have been got rid of immediately after the 2017 fiasco. It is the issue of whether we are to have a moderate centre right party in this country. It is no longer something we can take for granted. > > I think I will give it a go. The end of days is upon us. > > This woman told Osborne to go and learn more about his party. Just mind blowing.
May I recommend Dishoom for food? It's rather good.
> @Casino_Royale said: > > @Jonathan said: > > > > @JohnO said: > > > > I strongly supported May’s deal and will vote Conservative tomorrow. But I’ll shed few tears should the BP outperform expectations and poll towards 40%. She’s got to go and I just can’t see any alternative to Johnson or Raab becoming leader and the U.K. slouching to a No Deal Brexit. It’ll probably end in tears (who knows) but it’s the course I now feel we have to tread. > > > > > > Can't you knock a few heads together and come up with someone a little more sensible than Raab C Brexit or Boris 'the ego' Johnson? > > > > Oh, the Baker, Bridgen, Francois, Jenkyns crowd will have won. Hate it, but there you go. The Flint, Nancy, Cooper, Benn mob on your side played for high stakes in their hope that scuppering the flawed May deal would lead to revoke or a referendum. It won’t. They should have looked beyond narrow advantage and realised that the best is usually the enemy of the good. But they didn’t. And serves them right. > > Exactly. Except not Flint. She’s been sensible throughout. > > It’s Labour who have also been instrumental in shooting this down, and are doing it even now. > > As far as I can tell May is giving them everything they wanted and they are *still* opposing it wholeheartedly. > > What Labour want is the destruction of the Tory party, which is what they are getting. > > The stupid Francois lot will get their No Deal Brexit and hand a weakened country to Corbyn. The malicious damaging fools. > > And they might rip themselves to shreds in the process. Their polling is also appalling. > > It’s beyond stupid, as the very bright James Kanagasooriam has pointed out.
It is stupid for Labour generally but not for Corbyn Labour. Corbyn could never have won a majority to enact his program against a sensible Tory party. He did not see much difference between Blair and Cameron so has been quite happy to risk speeding up the re-alignment of politics, knowing it would lose Labour votes but expecting it to lose even more Tory votes as they are the party that the public will see as most responsible for Brexit.
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > Seeing so many on here struggling to decide where to place their x tomorrow does make me wonder that the public as a whole may just ignore the vote as they do not understand any of it anyway
I still think turnout will be nearer 30% than 40%.
> Revoke or revocation simply isn’t going to happen unless the Government radically changes. If it does, there will still be awful fallout for a very long time and it will neither settle nor end the matter.
That is true for all outcomes now.
May Day must be tempted to drop her mate Jean-Claude a quick line and revoke Article 50, just for shit and giggles.
Germany distributing 96 MEPs on nation wide lists with no threshold is always fun in guessing which obscure parties will get in with 0.something of the vote.
I strongly supported May’s deal and will vote Conservative tomorrow. But I’ll shed few tears should the BP outperform expectations and poll towards 40%. She’s got to go and I just can’t see any alternative to Johnson or Raab becoming leader and the U.K. slouching to a No Deal Brexit. It’ll probably end in tears (who knows) but it’s the course I now feel we have to tread.
Why the hell should the country suffer to satisfy the loons in the Tory party and a party which has no MPs in Parliament and whose leader has failed in all his attempts at becoming an MP?
The way Tories regularly conflate what is in their interests with what is in the country’s interests is despicable. Drive your own bus over a cliff if you must. But stop including the rest of us in your “we”.
This isn’t about the Tories. They are just a vehicle.
In case you hadn’t noticed it isn’t the mid noughties anymore with this being a fringe opinion. The country is totally split down the middle with basically half the voters wanting Out and looking for any available vehicle to get it.
They’re not going to go away and nor will they stay silent. They are going to tell in our political system whether you like it or not.
Revoke or revocation simply isn’t going to happen unless the Government radically changes. If it does, there will still be awful fallout for a very long time and it will neither settle nor end the matter.
It is worrying how so many Leavers have gone from saying in 2016 that No Deal was just Project Fear to No Deal is the only true Brexit in 2019.
I used to get mocked for this article, but I reckon it is going to happen.
For the record, I haven’t. I wanted the Deal on the table and indeed was happy with it.
But, it looks like all we’ll be left with is No Deal or Revoke.
Maybe by some genius a new PM will get some changes to the WA from the EU (I doubt it, because they’re as totally fucking stubborn and tunnel visioned as May is) and get it through, but that must be a 20% shot max now.
> @Casino_Royale said: > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > I strongly supported May’s deal and will vote Conservative tomorrow. But I’ll shed few tears should the BP outperform expectations and poll towards 40%. She’s got to go and I just can’t see any alternative to Johnson or Raab becoming leader and the U.K. slouching to a No Deal Brexit. It’ll probably end in tears (who knows) but it’s the course I now feel we have to tread. > > > > > > Why the hell should the country suffer to satisfy the loons in the Tory party and a party which has no MPs in Parliament and whose leader has failed in all his attempts at becoming an MP? > > > > > > The way Tories regularly conflate what is in their interests with what is in the country’s interests is despicable. Drive your own bus over a cliff if you must. But stop including the rest of us in your “we”. > > > > > > This isn’t about the Tories. They are just a vehicle. > > > > > > In case you hadn’t noticed it isn’t the mid noughties anymore with this being a fringe opinion. The country is totally split down the middle with basically half the voters wanting Out and looking for any available vehicle to get it. > > > > > > They’re not going to go away and nor will they stay silent. They are going to tell in our political system whether you like it or not. > > > > > > Revoke or revocation simply isn’t going to happen unless the Government radically changes. If it does, there will still be awful fallout for a very long time and it will neither settle nor end the matter. > > > > The same applies to no deal Brexit. With the difference that jobs will be lost, lives will be disrupted and put at risk and the mandate for no deal Brexit is even worse than that for revoke. > > It isn’t, because it’s still the implementation of the original decision rather than sticking a giant two fingers up to it on account of some choice polling trends as justification. > > I agree there will be major political blowback from No Deal as well. I think it’d be worse with Revoke.
It would be implementing something every Leave campaigner said could not possibly happen. It would be a democratic outrage.
> @AndreaParma_82 said: > Germany distributing 96 MEPs on nation wide lists with no threshold is always fun in guessing which obscure parties will get in with 0.5 of the vote.
Why no threshold for this? 5% is standard over there.
> @Cyclefree said: > I strongly supported May’s deal and will vote Conservative tomorrow. But I’ll shed few tears should the BP outperform expectations and poll towards 40%. She’s got to go and I just can’t see any alternative to Johnson or Raab becoming leader and the U.K. slouching to a No Deal Brexit. It’ll probably end in tears (who knows) but it’s the course I now feel we have to tread. > > Why the hell should the country suffer to satisfy the loons in the Tory party and a party which has no MPs in Parliament and whose leader has failed in all his attempts at becoming an MP? > > The way Tories regularly conflate what is in their interests with what is in the country’s interests is despicable. Drive your own bus over a cliff if you must. But stop including the rest of us in your “we”.
The country voted Leave, according to the latest Opinium more voters back No Deal than EUref2 or revoke and further extension combined
> @_Anazina_ said: > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > > Revoke or revocation simply isn’t going to happen unless the Government radically changes. If it does, there will still be awful fallout for a very long time and it will neither settle nor end the matter. > > > > That is true for all outcomes now. > > May Day must be tempted to drop her mate Jean-Claude a quick line and revoke Article 50, just for shit and giggles.
That’s actually not a bad idea. She may as well carry the whole can.
> @Casino_Royale said: > > It’s not six of one or half-a-dozen of the other. We *have* to Leave now or I fear our entire democratic consensus behind our Government in this country could collapse. > > If forced between Revoke or No Deal, I would choose the latter.
If No Deal means the end of the union, why not start with an orderly dissolution of the UK and then ask England whether it still wants to be outside the EU?
> > Revoke or revocation simply isn’t going to happen unless the Government radically changes. If it does, there will still be awful fallout for a very long time and it will neither settle nor end the matter.
>
>
>
> That is true for all outcomes now.
>
> May Day must be tempted to drop her mate Jean-Claude a quick line and revoke Article 50, just for shit and giggles.
That’s actually not a bad idea. She may as well carry the whole can.
> @Byronic said: > > @ah009 said: > > In 12 hours I will be voting in an election. I do not yet know whom I will vote for. > > I am no closer to deciding than I was a week ago. I've never struggled to make up my mind as much as this before.< > > ++++ > > Likewise > > >
I think you should vote LibDem. It would be cathartic.
> > I strongly supported May’s deal and will vote Conservative tomorrow. But I’ll shed few tears should the BP outperform expectations and poll towards 40%. She’s got to go and I just can’t see any alternative to Johnson or Raab becoming leader and the U.K. slouching to a No Deal Brexit. It’ll probably end in tears (who knows) but it’s the course I now feel we have to tread.
>
> >
>
> > Why the hell should the country suffer to satisfy the loons in the Tory party and a party which has no MPs in Parliament and whose leader has failed in all his attempts at becoming an MP?
>
> >
>
> > The way Tories regularly conflate what is in their interests with what is in the country’s interests is despicable. Drive your own bus over a cliff if you must. But stop including the rest of us in your “we”.
>
> >
>
> > This isn’t about the Tories. They are just a vehicle.
>
> >
>
> > In case you hadn’t noticed it isn’t the mid noughties anymore with this being a fringe opinion. The country is totally split down the middle with basically half the voters wanting Out and looking for any available vehicle to get it.
>
> >
>
> > They’re not going to go away and nor will they stay silent. They are going to tell in our political system whether you like it or not.
>
> >
>
> > Revoke or revocation simply isn’t going to happen unless the Government radically changes. If it does, there will still be awful fallout for a very long time and it will neither settle nor end the matter.
>
>
>
> The same applies to no deal Brexit. With the difference that jobs will be lost, lives will be disrupted and put at risk and the mandate for no deal Brexit is even worse than that for revoke.
>
> It isn’t, because it’s still the implementation of the original decision rather than sticking a giant two fingers up to it on account of some choice polling trends as justification.
>
> I agree there will be major political blowback from No Deal as well. I think it’d be worse with Revoke.
It would be implementing something every Leave campaigner said could not possibly happen. It would be a democratic outrage.
The democratic outrage would be to simply revoke the original decision.
> @HYUFD said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > I strongly supported May’s deal and will vote Conservative tomorrow. But I’ll shed few tears should the BP outperform expectations and poll towards 40%. She’s got to go and I just can’t see any alternative to Johnson or Raab becoming leader and the U.K. slouching to a No Deal Brexit. It’ll probably end in tears (who knows) but it’s the course I now feel we have to tread. > > > > Why the hell should the country suffer to satisfy the loons in the Tory party and a party which has no MPs in Parliament and whose leader has failed in all his attempts at becoming an MP? > > > > The way Tories regularly conflate what is in their interests with what is in the country’s interests is despicable. Drive your own bus over a cliff if you must. But stop including the rest of us in your “we”. > > The country voted Leave, according to the latest Opinium more voters back No Deal than EUref2 or revoke and further extension combined
> @_Anazina_ said: > I shall vote tomorrow, either Lib Dem, Green or CHUK. I’ll see how I feel in the polling booth. > > That is exactly my position.
In London it's probably best to vote CHUK because the LDs and Greens are mostly likely guaranteed one seat each and will be hard-pressed to win a second whereas Gavin Esler is probably on the edge of being elected.
> It’s not six of one or half-a-dozen of the other. We *have* to Leave now or I fear our entire democratic consensus behind our Government in this country could collapse.
>
> If forced between Revoke or No Deal, I would choose the latter.
If No Deal means the end of the union, why not start with an orderly dissolution of the UK and then ask England whether it still wants to be outside the EU?
The Lib Dems have plenty of smart remainers who are thinking about where to put their X but the tribal loyalty (The North East is an exception and remainers should vote Labour there) behind the reds is something to behold. Labour have a magnificent 'zombie vote' in every election.
> @ah009 said: > > @DavidL said: > > I have unexpectedly had to spend the night in Edinburgh and am committed to being here tomorrow night too. I am wondering if an emergency proxy is worth the faff, especially as my initial instincts were not to vote at all. > > > > My concern now is that the Tory party could completely collapse. This is not just a question of May, who I have always said should have been got rid of immediately after the 2017 fiasco. It is the issue of whether we are to have a moderate centre right party in this country. It is no longer something we can take for granted. > > > > I think I will give it a go. The end of days is upon us. > > > > This woman told Osborne to go and learn more about his party. Just mind blowing. > > May I recommend Dishoom for food? It's rather good.
We've been there for our Christmas lunch the last 2 years and I have been on other occasions as well. I agree it is absolutely excellent although I miss the calamari from their menu. Best starter I have ever had in an Indian restaurant.
> @Casino_Royale said: > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > > > > I strongly supported May’s deal and will vote Conservative tomorrow. But I’ll shed few tears should the BP outperform expectations and poll towards 40%. She’s got to go and I just can’t see any alternative to Johnson or Raab becoming leader and the U.K. slouching to a No Deal Brexit. It’ll probably end in tears (who knows) but it’s the course I now feel we have to tread. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Why the hell should the country suffer to satisfy the loons in the Tory party and a party which has no MPs in Parliament and whose leader has failed in all his attempts at becoming an MP? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > The way Tories regularly conflate what is in their interests with what is in the country’s interests is despicable. Drive your own bus over a cliff if you must. But stop including the rest of us in your “we”. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > This isn’t about the Tories. They are just a vehicle. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > In case you hadn’t noticed it isn’t the mid noughties anymore with this being a fringe opinion. The country is totally split down the middle with basically half the voters wanting Out and looking for any available vehicle to get it. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > They’re not going to go away and nor will they stay silent. They are going to tell in our political system whether you like it or not. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Revoke or revocation simply isn’t going to happen unless the Government radically changes. If it does, there will still be awful fallout for a very long time and it will neither settle nor end the matter. > > > > > > > > > > > > The same applies to no deal Brexit. With the difference that jobs will be lost, lives will be disrupted and put at risk and the mandate for no deal Brexit is even worse than that for revoke. > > > > > > It isn’t, because it’s still the implementation of the original decision rather than sticking a giant two fingers up to it on account of some choice polling trends as justification. > > > > > > I agree there will be major political blowback from No Deal as well. I think it’d be worse with Revoke. > > > > It would be implementing something every Leave campaigner said could not possibly happen. It would be a democratic outrage. > > The democratic outrage would be to simply revoke the original decision. > > That simply cannot happen.
A referendum between the two achievable options is the only democratic way out now.
> @Casino_Royale said: > > The democratic outrage would be to simply revoke the original decision. > > That simply cannot happen.
-------
Revoking Article 50 would just reset the process, not reverse the decision. Ultimately only the people can reverse their own decision in a second referendum.
> > Revoke or revocation simply isn’t going to happen unless the Government radically changes. If it does, there will still be awful fallout for a very long time and it will neither settle nor end the matter.
>
>
>
> That is true for all outcomes now.
>
> May Day must be tempted to drop her mate Jean-Claude a quick line and revoke Article 50, just for shit and giggles.
That’s actually not a bad idea. She may as well carry the whole can.
> The democratic outrage would be to simply revoke the original decision.
>
> That simply cannot happen.
-------
Revoking Article 50 would just reset the process, not reverse the decision. Ultimately only the people can reverse their own decision in a second referendum.
The first sentence insults my intelligence.
The second is valid, and is an option.
I caution as to whether it would go your way though.
I suppose we should look on the bright side. We've been given an opportunity to practise our stockpiling, so we should make a better job of it in October than we did in March.
> @Barnesian said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @williamglenn said: > > > https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1131212470985666561?s=21 > > > > Get rid of May now and the next Tory leader has to go straight to Brussels and ask for the backstop to be removed and replaced by a technical solution and if not they will have to call a general election in October on a platform of No Deal as the current Commons will always vote for further extension or if refused by Macron likely revoke over No Deal > > That would be great for two reasons: > > 1. I have money on an October election. > 2. Labour would win a majority on a manifesto promising a 2nd referendum with the Tory vote split with The Brexit Party.
No, the Brexit Party vote would collapse to the Tories if Boris went on a hard Brexit platform while Corbyn still refuses to back another referendum and even if he did that would hand northern and midlands Leave marginals to the Tories
> @Nemtynakht said: > > @ah009 said: > > In 12 hours I will be voting in an election. I do not yet know whom I will vote for. > > I am no closer to deciding than I was a week ago. I've never struggled to make up my mind as much as this before. > > Do I support LD as I originally voted to remain, Conservative as I support the withdrawal agreement or Brexit Party because I just want it over as soon as possible. > > If you are struggling to make up your mind perhaps you could vote Labour
What makes you think that voting Brexit Party will make it over soon?
> @dixiedean said: > > @AndreaParma_82 said: > > Germany distributing 96 MEPs on nation wide lists with no threshold is always fun in guessing which obscure parties will get in with 0.5 of the vote. > > Why no threshold for this? 5% is standard over there.
Why should there be? If you can get 1% of the vote, shouldn't you have 1% of the power?
@Casino_Royale said: I agree there will be major political blowback from No Deal as well. I think it’d be worse with Revoke.
++++++++++
Oh yes. In the event of No Deal and a nasty recession*, Jeremy Corbyn would probably end up in Number 10 with a stonking majority, and the ability to do some real damage to the UK over the next five years.
In the event of Revoke, the consequences for our democracy would be severe.
It's like being offered the choice between herpes and syphilis.
* As an aside, it's worth noting that we're probably due a recession now anyway.
> @logical_song said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Cyclefree said: > > > I strongly supported May’s deal and will vote Conservative tomorrow. But I’ll shed few tears should the BP outperform expectations and poll towards 40%. She’s got to go and I just can’t see any alternative to Johnson or Raab becoming leader and the U.K. slouching to a No Deal Brexit. It’ll probably end in tears (who knows) but it’s the course I now feel we have to tread. > > > > > > Why the hell should the country suffer to satisfy the loons in the Tory party and a party which has no MPs in Parliament and whose leader has failed in all his attempts at becoming an MP? > > > > > > The way Tories regularly conflate what is in their interests with what is in the country’s interests is despicable. Drive your own bus over a cliff if you must. But stop including the rest of us in your “we”. > > > > The country voted Leave, according to the latest Opinium more voters back No Deal than EUref2 or revoke and further extension combined > > EU referendum voting intention: > > Remain: 54% (+1) > Leave: 46% (-1) > > via @Panelbase, 14 - 21 May > Chgs. w/ 24 Apr
No higher than most of the polls had Remain ahead before the 2016 referendum
> @HYUFD said: > > No, the Brexit Party vote would collapse to the Tories if Boris went on a hard Brexit platform while Corbyn still refuses to back another referendum and even if he did that would hand northern and midlands Leave marginals to the Tories
------------
If the Tories run on a "Nigel is right" platform, what's to stop Nigel saying thank you very much and telling people to vote for the real thing?
> @Alistair said: > Just taken the 8/1 at Ladbrokes for Brexit Party to get 20-30% if the vote. > > I think this election is unpollable and that 8/1 is surely to long.
they abolished in 2014. Constituional Court declared it invalid. They proposed a 3% threshold but this one was ruled out by the court. They end up with no threshold and a party (Party for Labour, Rule of Law, Animal Protection, Promotion of Elites and Grassroots Democratic Initiative) getting a MEP with 0.6%
The reasoning of the Federal Court was that EU Parliament is not like a National Parliament with a government and so they don't need a working majority. And therefore a threshold is not necessary to allow the Parliament work.
It is a bit bizarre
> @dixiedean said: > > @AndreaParma_82 said: > > Germany distributing 96 MEPs on nation wide lists with no threshold is always fun in guessing which obscure parties will get in with 0.5 of the vote. > > Why no threshold for this? 5% is standard over there.
> @AndreaParma_82 said: > they abolished in 2014. Constituional Court declared it invalid. Government proposed a new 3% threshold but also that one was ruled out by the court. They end up with no threshold and a party (Party for Labour, Rule of Law, Animal Protection, Promotion of Elites and Grassroots Democratic Initiative) getting a MEP with 0.6% > > The reasoning of the Federal Court was that EU Parliament is not like a National Parliament with a government and so they don't need a working majority. And therefore a threshold is not necessary to allow the Parliament work. > > It is a bit bizarre > > > @dixiedean said: > > > @AndreaParma_82 said: > > > Germany distributing 96 MEPs on nation wide lists with no threshold is always fun in guessing which obscure parties will get in with 0.5 of the vote. > > > > Why no threshold for this? 5% is standard over there. >
> @williamglenn said: > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > It’s not six of one or half-a-dozen of the other. We *have* to Leave now or I fear our entire democratic consensus behind our Government in this country could collapse. > > > > If forced between Revoke or No Deal, I would choose the latter. > > If No Deal means the end of the union, why not start with an orderly dissolution of the UK and then ask England whether it still wants to be outside the EU?
It would do by an even greater margin, England alone voted 53.3% Leave, the UK only 51.8% Leave
A question on polling, how do they deal with postal votes?
Do they check if you have voted and treat that differently to intend to vote? Would someone who voted Conservative by post 2 weeks ago but would now choose Brexit show as Brexit or Tory? Does this vary by firm?
With postal voting increasing, turnout volatile and a swing during the campaign it seems this could account for quite a lot of volatility depending on how they address this.
Just been away for an hour and a half to eat my tea and edit my cv. Was in two minds as to whether the PM would still be there or not. Hey Presto! Nothing has Changed! Off to meditate soon. May return to find Grayling has seized power or some such...
> No, the Brexit Party vote would collapse to the Tories if Boris went on a hard Brexit platform while Corbyn still refuses to back another referendum and even if he did that would hand northern and midlands Leave marginals to the Tories
I suspect TBP won't give up so easily. They may well put up candidates against the Conservatives and clearly have a game plan for attacking a Johnson leadership. They also have changed tack and are talking the Trumpian language of changing the political system which will attract many.
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > @Jonathan said: > > > > > > @JohnO said: > > > > > > I strongly supported May’s deal and will vote Conservative tomorrow. But I’ll shed few tears should the BP outperform expectations and poll towards 40%. She’s got to go and I just can’t see any alternative to Johnson or Raab becoming leader and the U.K. slouching to a No Deal Brexit. It’ll probably end in tears (who knows) but it’s the course I now feel we have to tread. > > > > > > > > > > Can't you knock a few heads together and come up with someone a little more sensible than Raab C Brexit or Boris 'the ego' Johnson? > > > > > > > > Oh, the Baker, Bridgen, Francois, Jenkyns crowd will have won. Hate it, but there you go. The Flint, Nancy, Cooper, Benn mob on your side played for high stakes in their hope that scuppering the flawed May deal would lead to revoke or a referendum. It won’t. They should have looked beyond narrow advantage and realised that the best is usually the enemy of the good. But they didn’t. And serves them right. > > > > Exactly. Except not Flint. She’s been sensible throughout. > > > > It’s Labour who have also been instrumental in shooting this down, and are doing it even now. > > > > As far as I can tell May is giving them everything they wanted and they are *still* opposing it wholeheartedly. > > > > What Labour want is the destruction of the Tory party, which is what they are getting. > > > > The stupid Francois lot will get their No Deal Brexit and hand a weakened country to Corbyn. The malicious damaging fools. > > > > And they might rip themselves to shreds in the process. Their polling is also appalling. > > > > It’s beyond stupid, as the very bright James Kanagasooriam has pointed out. > > It is stupid for Labour generally but not for Corbyn Labour. Corbyn could never have won a majority to enact his program against a sensible Tory party. He did not see much difference between Blair and Cameron so has been quite happy to risk speeding up the re-alignment of politics, knowing it would lose Labour votes but expecting it to lose even more Tory votes as they are the party that the public will see as most responsible for Brexit.
I would not be certain of that, the only election Corbyn Labour has beaten the Tories in national voteshare was the 2016 local elections when Cameron was still Tory leader
If they want to really avoid all the 1% parties getting a MEP and can't implement a threshold, Germany should move to allocate seats by region like in UK. Even without an official threshold, there would be an implicit one if the number of available seats are limited
> @brokenwheel said: > The French aren't even mentioning the fiasco that's happening across the channel. We're a laughing stock but they can't even be bothered to laugh. > > RN are likely to win the French European elections...
The FN comfortably won the 2014 European Elections in France, so I don't think that should surprise us.
> @logical_song said: > > @Nemtynakht said: > > > @ah009 said: > > > In 12 hours I will be voting in an election. I do not yet know whom I will vote for. > > > I am no closer to deciding than I was a week ago. I've never struggled to make up my mind as much as this before. > > > > Do I support LD as I originally voted to remain, Conservative as I support the withdrawal agreement or Brexit Party because I just want it over as soon as possible. > > > > If you are struggling to make up your mind perhaps you could vote Labour > > What makes you think that voting Brexit Party will make it over soon?
Fair point. The only quick resolution in terms of Things Wot Need To Be Done is revoke. There is no quick resolution in terms of What We Will Be Talking About.
I didn't used to be a revoker, but I'm definitely open to it now.
Comments
> You can just see what's going to happen, can't you? The Tories melt down tomorrow, with the Brexit Party triumphant. The Tory MPs panic wildly and stampede into No Deal. And the aftermath of that obliterates what's left.
Would have been a good moment for an Opposition VONC - get credit for forcing May out, or force the Tories to stick with her.
> As caretaker PM I think most would see it as a fair compromise.
>
> I disagree. The Tory party are a bunch of Corbynesque fanatics - the last thing most of them want is a compromise, fair or not.
>
> Nevertheless, I feel a dilemma. While I now think we should remain, I did very much back the deal and this might be the chance to register support for that outcome at an election. But that would mean rewarding the pathetic shower that is the Tory party. On the other hand the LDs might be able to sneak a second seat if I back them, but they have been quite extremist for a long time on Brexit, and should I reward that? CUK deserve something for boldness but don't seem to offer anything, a vote Labour would be fine but they seem somewhat confused about just how remainy or not they are. BXP and UKIp have at least attempted to get my vote through leaflets but, er, no, no thanks.
>
> So I think I might boil it down to the final two and toss a coin.
I still think TM will stay in post but to be fair you could be correct
I have no problem with my vote. I am a conservative party member and I voted conservative
I am no closer to deciding than I was a week ago. I've never struggled to make up my mind as much as this before.
I laid off last time round this happened. And then forgot to anticipate it could happen again, and reback him again once the odds drifted out high again.
Dumbo.
> So what on earth will we have to witter on about tomorrow. Is there going to be a thread on voting systems?
Anecdotes about turnout at our polling stations?
> > @kle4 said:
> > As caretaker PM I think most would see it as a fair compromise.
> >
> > I disagree. The Tory party are a bunch of Corbynesque fanatics - the last thing most of them want is a compromise, fair or not.
> >
> > Nevertheless, I feel a dilemma. While I now think we should remain, I did very much back the deal and this might be the chance to register support for that outcome at an election. But that would mean rewarding the pathetic shower that is the Tory party. On the other hand the LDs might be able to sneak a second seat if I back them, but they have been quite extremist for a long time on Brexit, and should I reward that? CUK deserve something for boldness but don't seem to offer anything, a vote Labour would be fine but they seem somewhat confused about just how remainy or not they are. BXP and UKIp have at least attempted to get my vote through leaflets but, er, no, no thanks.
> >
> > So I think I might boil it down to the final two and toss a coin.
>
> I still think TM will stay in post but to be fair you could be correct
>
> I have no problem with my vote. I am a conservative party member and I voted conservative
Are there any leadership candidates who you'd leave your membership should they win?
> > @Omnium said:
> > > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > > > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > > I’ve already laid off my Lidington.
> > >
> > > I’ve laid off some of mine. I fancy that the prices will shorten again further before the week is out.
> > >
> > > He is part of my trinity of major moneymakers on the next PM market, together with Jacob Rees-Mogg and Jeremy Corbyn. Gawd bless that unlikely trio.
> >
> > Surely you've indulged in the free money that has been David Millband too?
> >
> > (Easily my best result from the clown-spotter)
>
> Oh yes, and Nigel Farage too recently. But they are next tier down for me.
Interesting.
I absolutely love these long term markets. I can make a small profit (mainly from others foolishness, rather than my wisdom) but I mainly just love them for the intellectual challenge.
(PS when I say something is interesting I actually mean what I say)
> In 12 hours I will be voting in an election. I do not yet know whom I will vote for.
> I am no closer to deciding than I was a week ago. I've never struggled to make up my mind as much as this before.
I don't know either, except I've ruled out Con, Lab and UKIP.
> > @Chris said:
> > You can just see what's going to happen, can't you? The Tories melt down tomorrow, with the Brexit Party triumphant. The Tory MPs panic wildly and stampede into No Deal. And the aftermath of that obliterates what's left.
>
> Would have been a good moment for an Opposition VONC - get credit for forcing May out, or force the Tories to stick with her.
Is it too late?
> So what on earth will we have to witter on about tomorrow. Is there going to be a thread on voting systems?
>
> Only if we are very good. Surely it should be nothing but an examination of the merits and flaws of d'hondt.
I did think about doing a thread header about what different poll shares might mean for seat counts for different parties but decided that was too geeky even for here.
> In 12 hours I will be voting in an election. I do not yet know whom I will vote for.
> I am no closer to deciding than I was a week ago. I've never struggled to make up my mind as much as this before.
Do I support LD as I originally voted to remain, Conservative as I support the withdrawal agreement or Brexit Party because I just want it over as soon as possible.
If you are struggling to make up your mind perhaps you could vote Labour
And when every single leadership candidate with prospects commits to no deal (including unicorn 'no deal if the EU does not back down, etc etc')?
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @kle4 said:
> > > As caretaker PM I think most would see it as a fair compromise.
> > >
> > > I disagree. The Tory party are a bunch of Corbynesque fanatics - the last thing most of them want is a compromise, fair or not.
> > >
> > > Nevertheless, I feel a dilemma. While I now think we should remain, I did very much back the deal and this might be the chance to register support for that outcome at an election. But that would mean rewarding the pathetic shower that is the Tory party. On the other hand the LDs might be able to sneak a second seat if I back them, but they have been quite extremist for a long time on Brexit, and should I reward that? CUK deserve something for boldness but don't seem to offer anything, a vote Labour would be fine but they seem somewhat confused about just how remainy or not they are. BXP and UKIp have at least attempted to get my vote through leaflets but, er, no, no thanks.
> > >
> > > So I think I might boil it down to the final two and toss a coin.
> >
> > I still think TM will stay in post but to be fair you could be correct
> >
> > I have no problem with my vote. I am a conservative party member and I voted conservative
>
> Are there any leadership candidates who you'd leave your membership should they win?
Baker and Francois but as for anyone else it will depend on the hustings and the direction of the party under a new leader and the new cabinet appointments
> > @Jonathan said:
> > > @JohnO said:
> > > I strongly supported May’s deal and will vote Conservative tomorrow. But I’ll shed few tears should the BP outperform expectations and poll towards 40%. She’s got to go and I just can’t see any alternative to Johnson or Raab becoming leader and the U.K. slouching to a No Deal Brexit. It’ll probably end in tears (who knows) but it’s the course I now feel we have to tread.
> >
> > Can't you knock a few heads together and come up with someone a little more sensible than Raab C Brexit or Boris 'the ego' Johnson?
>
> Oh, the Baker, Bridgen, Francois, Jenkyns crowd will have won. Hate it, but there you go. The Flint, Nancy, Cooper, Benn mob on your side played for high stakes in their hope that scuppering the flawed May deal would lead to revoke or a referendum. It won’t. They should have looked beyond narrow advantage and realised that the best is usually the enemy of the good. But they didn’t. And serves them right.
You can’t proclaim a winner until we we know what’s happened . The last few years has shown that making forecasts is a fools game . I have no idea what the end result will be and neither do the political commentators .
If people 3 months ago had said we’d be holding EU elections and that the UK would still be in the EU and won’t be leaving till October no one would have believed it .
> > @ah009 said:
> > In 12 hours I will be voting in an election. I do not yet know whom I will vote for.
> > I am no closer to deciding than I was a week ago. I've never struggled to make up my mind as much as this before.
>
> Do I support LD as I originally voted to remain, Conservative as I support the withdrawal agreement or Brexit Party because I just want it over as soon as possible.
>
> If you are struggling to make up your mind perhaps you could vote Labour
Vote Labour so someone else can be indecisive for me?
> In 12 hours I will be voting in an election. I do not yet know whom I will vote for.
> I am no closer to deciding than I was a week ago. I've never struggled to make up my mind as much as this before.<
++++
Likewise
European Parliament is expected to start give out estimations after 6PM with Germany, Austria, Netherlands, Greece, Malta, Ireland and Cyprus the first to give indications
Finland is expected to be the first final result at 22.00
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/resources/library/media/20190521RES52073/20190521RES52073.pdf
> @AndyJS said:
> > @AndreaParma_82 said:
> > Italy polls close at 11PM local time which is 10pm for you
> >
> >
> > > @AndyJS said:
> > > > @AndreaParma_82 said:
> > > > Tomorrow is voting day also in the Netherlands for Euro elections.
> > > >
> > > > Ireland vote on Friday
> > > >
> > > > Saturday: Slovakia, Malta and Latvia
> > > >
> > > > Guadeloupe, Martinique, Guyane, Saint-Barhélémy, Saint-Martin, Saint-Pierre et-Miquelon and Polynésie Française also vote on Saturday.
> > > >
> > > > Remaining countries vote on Sunday
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > Do the final polls close on Sunday at 9pm British time or 10pm?
> >
> >
>
> Thanks, that explains why we have to wait until 10pm to start counting the votes. I think it's earlier in most countries (close of polling).
The stupid Francois lot will get their No Deal Brexit and hand a weakened country to Corbyn. The malicious damaging fools.
In case you hadn’t noticed it isn’t the mid noughties anymore with this being a fringe opinion. The country is totally split down the middle with basically half the voters wanting Out and looking for any available vehicle to get it.
They’re not going to go away and nor will they stay silent. They are going to tell in our political system whether you like it or not.
Revoke or revocation simply isn’t going to happen unless the Government radically changes. If it does, there will still be awful fallout for a very long time and it will neither settle nor end the matter.
Is it confirmed you have risen to Cabinet in just your first council meeting?
The sky is clearly the limit if so.
> > @kle4 said:
>
> > As caretaker PM I think most would see it as a fair compromise.
>
> >
>
> > I disagree. The Tory party are a bunch of Corbynesque fanatics - the last thing most of them want is a compromise, fair or not.
>
> >
>
> > Nevertheless, I feel a dilemma. While I now think we should remain, I did very much back the deal and this might be the chance to register support for that outcome at an election. But that would mean rewarding the pathetic shower that is the Tory party. On the other hand the LDs might be able to sneak a second seat if I back them, but they have been quite extremist for a long time on Brexit, and should I reward that? CUK deserve something for boldness but don't seem to offer anything, a vote Labour would be fine but they seem somewhat confused about just how remainy or not they are. BXP and UKIp have at least attempted to get my vote through leaflets but, er, no, no thanks.
>
> >
>
> > So I think I might boil it down to the final two and toss a coin.
>
>
>
> I still think TM will stay in post but to be fair you could be correct
>
>
>
> I have no problem with my vote. I am a conservative party member and I voted conservative
>
> ------------------
> And when every single leadership candidate with prospects commits to no deal (including unicorn 'no deal if the EU does not back down, etc etc')?
That may well be but that in itself will not see me resign unless it becomes a reality
> > @ah009 said:
> > In 12 hours I will be voting in an election. I do not yet know whom I will vote for.
> > I am no closer to deciding than I was a week ago. I've never struggled to make up my mind as much as this before.
>
> I don't know either, except I've ruled out Con, Lab and UKIP.
Those three I've also ruled out. Probably for the rest of my life, but we'll see.
> Incidentally, Jacob Rees-Mogg was last matched for next PM at 310. Where is the Moggmentum of last year?
Still tattooed to a bloke in Doncaster ?
https://totalpolitics.com/articles/news/jacob-rees-mogg-‘enormously-honoured’-fan’s-tattoo
> Revoke or revocation simply isn’t going to happen unless the Government radically changes. If it does, there will still be awful fallout for a very long time and it will neither settle nor end the matter.
That is true for all outcomes now.
> I shall vote tomorrow, either Lib Dem, Green or CHUK. I’ll see how I feel in the polling booth.
There's a real chance that CHUK will be a wasted vote. Polling looks bad for them.
But that depends on whether you care about MEP numbers.
> I strongly supported May’s deal and will vote Conservative tomorrow. But I’ll shed few tears should the BP outperform expectations and poll towards 40%. She’s got to go and I just can’t see any alternative to Johnson or Raab becoming leader and the U.K. slouching to a No Deal Brexit. It’ll probably end in tears (who knows) but it’s the course I now feel we have to tread.
>
> Why the hell should the country suffer to satisfy the loons in the Tory party and a party which has no MPs in Parliament and whose leader has failed in all his attempts at becoming an MP?
>
> The way Tories regularly conflate what is in their interests with what is in the country’s interests is despicable. Drive your own bus over a cliff if you must. But stop including the rest of us in your “we”.
>
> This isn’t about the Tories. They are just a vehicle.
>
> In case you hadn’t noticed it isn’t the mid noughties anymore with this being a fringe opinion. The country is totally split down the middle with basically half the voters wanting Out and looking for any available vehicle to get it.
>
> They’re not going to go away and nor will they stay silent. They are going to tell in our political system whether you like it or not.
>
> Revoke or revocation simply isn’t going to happen unless the Government radically changes. If it does, there will still be awful fallout for a very long time and it will neither settle nor end the matter.
The same applies to no deal Brexit. With the difference that jobs will be lost, lives will be disrupted and put at risk and the mandate for no deal Brexit is even worse than that for revoke.
> I shall vote tomorrow, either Lib Dem, Green or CHUK. I’ll see how I feel in the polling booth.
If you are in Eastern region , I suspect that of those options LibDem would be the most effective.
It’s beyond stupid, as the very bright James Kanagasooriam has pointed out.
My concern now is that the Tory party could completely collapse. This is not just a question of May, who I have always said should have been got rid of immediately after the 2017 fiasco. It is the issue of whether we are to have a moderate centre right party in this country. It is no longer something we can take for granted.
I think I will give it a go. The end of days is upon us.
This woman told Osborne to go and learn more about his party. Just mind blowing.
> I have unexpectedly had to spend the night in Edinburgh and am committed to being here tomorrow night too. I am wondering if an emergency proxy is worth the faff, especially as my initial instincts were not to vote at all.
>
> My concern now is that the Tory party could completely collapse. This is not just a question of May, who I have always said should have been got rid of immediately after the 2017 fiasco. It is the issue of whether we are to have a moderate centre right party in this country. It is no longer something we can take for granted.
>
> I think I will give it a go. The end of days is upon us.
>
> This woman told Osborne to go and learn more about his party. Just mind blowing.
I'm sure there'll always be a centre-right party in the UK, it's just a question of whether it's going to continue to be the Conservatives.
They don't have a hope of winning a seat, which is good as I don't want to give brexiteers any real power, and psephologists will ponder whether people meant to vote for Change UK, The Independent group instead of this lot.
I really don't fancy another referendum, both the Tories and Labour are a shower and I don't think Farage needs any more help. Whilst I enjoy watching the UKIP sideshow too I don't think they should be given a seat either so TIN it is.
> > @Jonathan said:
>
> > > @JohnO said:
>
> > > I strongly supported May’s deal and will vote Conservative tomorrow. But I’ll shed few tears should the BP outperform expectations and poll towards 40%. She’s got to go and I just can’t see any alternative to Johnson or Raab becoming leader and the U.K. slouching to a No Deal Brexit. It’ll probably end in tears (who knows) but it’s the course I now feel we have to tread.
>
> >
>
> > Can't you knock a few heads together and come up with someone a little more sensible than Raab C Brexit or Boris 'the ego' Johnson?
>
>
>
> Oh, the Baker, Bridgen, Francois, Jenkyns crowd will have won. Hate it, but there you go. The Flint, Nancy, Cooper, Benn mob on your side played for high stakes in their hope that scuppering the flawed May deal would lead to revoke or a referendum. It won’t. They should have looked beyond narrow advantage and realised that the best is usually the enemy of the good. But they didn’t. And serves them right.
>
> Exactly. Except not Flint. She’s been sensible throughout.
>
> It’s Labour who have also been instrumental in shooting this down, and are doing it even now.
>
> As far as I can tell May is giving them everything they wanted and they are *still* opposing it wholeheartedly.
>
> What Labour want is the destruction of the Tory party, which is what they are getting.
>
> The stupid Francois lot will get their No Deal Brexit and hand a weakened country to Corbyn. The malicious damaging fools.
A Corbyn heading to the lowest Labour share of the vote since 1910 tomorrow according to the latest Yougov?
No the momentum is all with Farage and his Brexit Party and the LDs at the moment, Corbyn Labour is in almost as bad a state as the Tories.
Over 80% of voters voted Tory and Labour at the last general election, tomorrow it is likely less than 40% will that is how angry Leavers and indeed Remainers feel with the 2 main parties
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > I shall vote tomorrow, either Lib Dem, Green or CHUK. I’ll see how I feel in the polling booth.
>
> There's a real chance that CHUK will be a wasted vote. Polling looks bad for them.
> But that depends on whether you care about MEP numbers.
As I have explained previously, I might vote CHUK for the same reason I sort of regret not taking the opportunity to go home with a man from Greenland: the opportunity might not come again.
I agree there will be major political blowback from No Deal as well. I think it’d be worse with Revoke.
> Do people see May staying as an MP? Feels difficult with the way she has been treated by her "party". Another by election coming? Another reduction in the majority?
>
> I hope she sticks around. It will be rough, but if things go even further to shit, or we Remain, and I were her, I'd want to be there to tell them. None of the last five people to take over as Prime Minister mid-term, Lord Home, Jim Callaghan, John Major, Gordon Brown and Theresa May herself, have called an immediate General Election in the same year.
>
>
>
> Nowadays the PM no longer has the power to 'call' one, they have to take place every 5 years unless MPs themselves want an earlier one.
>
>
>
> Opposition MPs don't have much to lose but why would government MPs vote for an early election when they are behind in the opinion polls?
>
> For some reason many of them seem to think taking a firm no deal position will see them rewarded massively by the public.
No deal will be very popular until about 10.45 am on No Deal Brexit Day.
Seriously- there are lots of examples of pure populism starting well; are there any of it ending well?
PS. Get your money on Govey ridiculous as it sounds.
> > @DavidL said:
> > I have unexpectedly had to spend the night in Edinburgh and am committed to being here tomorrow night too. I am wondering if an emergency proxy is worth the faff, especially as my initial instincts were not to vote at all.
> >
> > My concern now is that the Tory party could completely collapse. This is not just a question of May, who I have always said should have been got rid of immediately after the 2017 fiasco. It is the issue of whether we are to have a moderate centre right party in this country. It is no longer something we can take for granted.
> >
> > I think I will give it a go. The end of days is upon us.
> >
> > This woman told Osborne to go and learn more about his party. Just mind blowing.
>
> I'm sure there'll always be a centre-right party in the UK, it's just a question of whether it's going to continue to be the Conservatives.
I would not class their potential replacement at the moment as centre right. Or completely sane for that matter. But a flight to the extremes with all the instability that brings is looking very likely right now.
If forced between Revoke or No Deal, I would choose the latter.
I used to get mocked for this article, but I reckon it is going to happen.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/10/18/the-brexiteers-junckers-fifth-columnists/
> I have unexpectedly had to spend the night in Edinburgh and am committed to being here tomorrow night too. I am wondering if an emergency proxy is worth the faff, especially as my initial instincts were not to vote at all.
>
> My concern now is that the Tory party could completely collapse. This is not just a question of May, who I have always said should have been got rid of immediately after the 2017 fiasco. It is the issue of whether we are to have a moderate centre right party in this country. It is no longer something we can take for granted.
>
> I think I will give it a go. The end of days is upon us.
>
> This woman told Osborne to go and learn more about his party. Just mind blowing.
May I recommend Dishoom for food? It's rather good.
> > @Jonathan said:
>
> > > @JohnO said:
>
> > > I strongly supported May’s deal and will vote Conservative tomorrow. But I’ll shed few tears should the BP outperform expectations and poll towards 40%. She’s got to go and I just can’t see any alternative to Johnson or Raab becoming leader and the U.K. slouching to a No Deal Brexit. It’ll probably end in tears (who knows) but it’s the course I now feel we have to tread.
>
> >
>
> > Can't you knock a few heads together and come up with someone a little more sensible than Raab C Brexit or Boris 'the ego' Johnson?
>
>
>
> Oh, the Baker, Bridgen, Francois, Jenkyns crowd will have won. Hate it, but there you go. The Flint, Nancy, Cooper, Benn mob on your side played for high stakes in their hope that scuppering the flawed May deal would lead to revoke or a referendum. It won’t. They should have looked beyond narrow advantage and realised that the best is usually the enemy of the good. But they didn’t. And serves them right.
>
> Exactly. Except not Flint. She’s been sensible throughout.
>
> It’s Labour who have also been instrumental in shooting this down, and are doing it even now.
>
> As far as I can tell May is giving them everything they wanted and they are *still* opposing it wholeheartedly.
>
> What Labour want is the destruction of the Tory party, which is what they are getting.
>
> The stupid Francois lot will get their No Deal Brexit and hand a weakened country to Corbyn. The malicious damaging fools.
>
> And they might rip themselves to shreds in the process. Their polling is also appalling.
>
> It’s beyond stupid, as the very bright James Kanagasooriam has pointed out.
It is stupid for Labour generally but not for Corbyn Labour. Corbyn could never have won a majority to enact his program against a sensible Tory party. He did not see much difference between Blair and Cameron so has been quite happy to risk speeding up the re-alignment of politics, knowing it would lose Labour votes but expecting it to lose even more Tory votes as they are the party that the public will see as most responsible for Brexit.
> Seeing so many on here struggling to decide where to place their x tomorrow does make me wonder that the public as a whole may just ignore the vote as they do not understand any of it anyway
I still think turnout will be nearer 30% than 40%.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom
But, it looks like all we’ll be left with is No Deal or Revoke.
Maybe by some genius a new PM will get some changes to the WA from the EU (I doubt it, because they’re as totally fucking stubborn and tunnel visioned as May is) and get it through, but that must be a 20% shot max now.
> > @Casino_Royale said:
>
> > I strongly supported May’s deal and will vote Conservative tomorrow. But I’ll shed few tears should the BP outperform expectations and poll towards 40%. She’s got to go and I just can’t see any alternative to Johnson or Raab becoming leader and the U.K. slouching to a No Deal Brexit. It’ll probably end in tears (who knows) but it’s the course I now feel we have to tread.
>
> >
>
> > Why the hell should the country suffer to satisfy the loons in the Tory party and a party which has no MPs in Parliament and whose leader has failed in all his attempts at becoming an MP?
>
> >
>
> > The way Tories regularly conflate what is in their interests with what is in the country’s interests is despicable. Drive your own bus over a cliff if you must. But stop including the rest of us in your “we”.
>
> >
>
> > This isn’t about the Tories. They are just a vehicle.
>
> >
>
> > In case you hadn’t noticed it isn’t the mid noughties anymore with this being a fringe opinion. The country is totally split down the middle with basically half the voters wanting Out and looking for any available vehicle to get it.
>
> >
>
> > They’re not going to go away and nor will they stay silent. They are going to tell in our political system whether you like it or not.
>
> >
>
> > Revoke or revocation simply isn’t going to happen unless the Government radically changes. If it does, there will still be awful fallout for a very long time and it will neither settle nor end the matter.
>
>
>
> The same applies to no deal Brexit. With the difference that jobs will be lost, lives will be disrupted and put at risk and the mandate for no deal Brexit is even worse than that for revoke.
>
> It isn’t, because it’s still the implementation of the original decision rather than sticking a giant two fingers up to it on account of some choice polling trends as justification.
>
> I agree there will be major political blowback from No Deal as well. I think it’d be worse with Revoke.
It would be implementing something every Leave campaigner said could not possibly happen. It would be a democratic outrage.
> Germany distributing 96 MEPs on nation wide lists with no threshold is always fun in guessing which obscure parties will get in with 0.5 of the vote.
Why no threshold for this? 5% is standard over there.
> I strongly supported May’s deal and will vote Conservative tomorrow. But I’ll shed few tears should the BP outperform expectations and poll towards 40%. She’s got to go and I just can’t see any alternative to Johnson or Raab becoming leader and the U.K. slouching to a No Deal Brexit. It’ll probably end in tears (who knows) but it’s the course I now feel we have to tread.
>
> Why the hell should the country suffer to satisfy the loons in the Tory party and a party which has no MPs in Parliament and whose leader has failed in all his attempts at becoming an MP?
>
> The way Tories regularly conflate what is in their interests with what is in the country’s interests is despicable. Drive your own bus over a cliff if you must. But stop including the rest of us in your “we”.
The country voted Leave, according to the latest Opinium more voters back No Deal than EUref2 or revoke and further extension combined
> > @Casino_Royale said:
>
>
>
> > Revoke or revocation simply isn’t going to happen unless the Government radically changes. If it does, there will still be awful fallout for a very long time and it will neither settle nor end the matter.
>
>
>
> That is true for all outcomes now.
>
> May Day must be tempted to drop her mate Jean-Claude a quick line and revoke Article 50, just for shit and giggles.
That’s actually not a bad idea. She may as well carry the whole can.
>
> It’s not six of one or half-a-dozen of the other. We *have* to Leave now or I fear our entire democratic consensus behind our Government in this country could collapse.
>
> If forced between Revoke or No Deal, I would choose the latter.
If No Deal means the end of the union, why not start with an orderly dissolution of the UK and then ask England whether it still wants to be outside the EU?
> > @ah009 said:
> > In 12 hours I will be voting in an election. I do not yet know whom I will vote for.
> > I am no closer to deciding than I was a week ago. I've never struggled to make up my mind as much as this before.<
>
> ++++
>
> Likewise
>
>
>
I think you should vote LibDem. It would be cathartic.
That simply cannot happen.
> > @Cyclefree said:
> > I strongly supported May’s deal and will vote Conservative tomorrow. But I’ll shed few tears should the BP outperform expectations and poll towards 40%. She’s got to go and I just can’t see any alternative to Johnson or Raab becoming leader and the U.K. slouching to a No Deal Brexit. It’ll probably end in tears (who knows) but it’s the course I now feel we have to tread.
> >
> > Why the hell should the country suffer to satisfy the loons in the Tory party and a party which has no MPs in Parliament and whose leader has failed in all his attempts at becoming an MP?
> >
> > The way Tories regularly conflate what is in their interests with what is in the country’s interests is despicable. Drive your own bus over a cliff if you must. But stop including the rest of us in your “we”.
>
> The country voted Leave, according to the latest Opinium more voters back No Deal than EUref2 or revoke and further extension combined
EU referendum voting intention:
Remain: 54% (+1)
Leave: 46% (-1)
via @Panelbase, 14 - 21 May
Chgs. w/ 24 Apr
> I shall vote tomorrow, either Lib Dem, Green or CHUK. I’ll see how I feel in the polling booth.
>
> That is exactly my position.
In London it's probably best to vote CHUK because the LDs and Greens are mostly likely guaranteed one seat each and will be hard-pressed to win a second whereas Gavin Esler is probably on the edge of being elected.
> https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1131261293791469570
>
>
>
> Slight risk of the LDs coming behind the Tories if that is right, which would be a major flop after a few weeks of positive momentum.
The Lib Dems have plenty of smart remainers who are thinking about where to put their X but the tribal loyalty (The North East is an exception and remainers should vote Labour there) behind the reds is something to behold.
Labour have a magnificent 'zombie vote' in every election.
> > @DavidL said:
> > I have unexpectedly had to spend the night in Edinburgh and am committed to being here tomorrow night too. I am wondering if an emergency proxy is worth the faff, especially as my initial instincts were not to vote at all.
> >
> > My concern now is that the Tory party could completely collapse. This is not just a question of May, who I have always said should have been got rid of immediately after the 2017 fiasco. It is the issue of whether we are to have a moderate centre right party in this country. It is no longer something we can take for granted.
> >
> > I think I will give it a go. The end of days is upon us.
> >
> > This woman told Osborne to go and learn more about his party. Just mind blowing.
>
> May I recommend Dishoom for food? It's rather good.
We've been there for our Christmas lunch the last 2 years and I have been on other occasions as well. I agree it is absolutely excellent although I miss the calamari from their menu. Best starter I have ever had in an Indian restaurant.
> > @Casino_Royale said:
>
> > > @Casino_Royale said:
>
> >
>
> > > I strongly supported May’s deal and will vote Conservative tomorrow. But I’ll shed few tears should the BP outperform expectations and poll towards 40%. She’s got to go and I just can’t see any alternative to Johnson or Raab becoming leader and the U.K. slouching to a No Deal Brexit. It’ll probably end in tears (who knows) but it’s the course I now feel we have to tread.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > Why the hell should the country suffer to satisfy the loons in the Tory party and a party which has no MPs in Parliament and whose leader has failed in all his attempts at becoming an MP?
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > The way Tories regularly conflate what is in their interests with what is in the country’s interests is despicable. Drive your own bus over a cliff if you must. But stop including the rest of us in your “we”.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > This isn’t about the Tories. They are just a vehicle.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > In case you hadn’t noticed it isn’t the mid noughties anymore with this being a fringe opinion. The country is totally split down the middle with basically half the voters wanting Out and looking for any available vehicle to get it.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > They’re not going to go away and nor will they stay silent. They are going to tell in our political system whether you like it or not.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > Revoke or revocation simply isn’t going to happen unless the Government radically changes. If it does, there will still be awful fallout for a very long time and it will neither settle nor end the matter.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > The same applies to no deal Brexit. With the difference that jobs will be lost, lives will be disrupted and put at risk and the mandate for no deal Brexit is even worse than that for revoke.
>
> >
>
> > It isn’t, because it’s still the implementation of the original decision rather than sticking a giant two fingers up to it on account of some choice polling trends as justification.
>
> >
>
> > I agree there will be major political blowback from No Deal as well. I think it’d be worse with Revoke.
>
>
>
> It would be implementing something every Leave campaigner said could not possibly happen. It would be a democratic outrage.
>
> The democratic outrage would be to simply revoke the original decision.
>
> That simply cannot happen.
A referendum between the two achievable options is the only democratic way out now.
>
> The democratic outrage would be to simply revoke the original decision.
>
> That simply cannot happen.
-------
Revoking Article 50 would just reset the process, not reverse the decision. Ultimately only the people can reverse their own decision in a second referendum.
Some Remainers are living in cloud cuckoo land.
The second is valid, and is an option.
I caution as to whether it would go your way though.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1131212470985666561?s=21
> >
> > Get rid of May now and the next Tory leader has to go straight to Brussels and ask for the backstop to be removed and replaced by a technical solution and if not they will have to call a general election in October on a platform of No Deal as the current Commons will always vote for further extension or if refused by Macron likely revoke over No Deal
>
> That would be great for two reasons:
>
> 1. I have money on an October election.
> 2. Labour would win a majority on a manifesto promising a 2nd referendum with the Tory vote split with The Brexit Party.
No, the Brexit Party vote would collapse to the Tories if Boris went on a hard Brexit platform while Corbyn still refuses to back another referendum and even if he did that would hand northern and midlands Leave marginals to the Tories
> > @ah009 said:
> > In 12 hours I will be voting in an election. I do not yet know whom I will vote for.
> > I am no closer to deciding than I was a week ago. I've never struggled to make up my mind as much as this before.
>
> Do I support LD as I originally voted to remain, Conservative as I support the withdrawal agreement or Brexit Party because I just want it over as soon as possible.
>
> If you are struggling to make up your mind perhaps you could vote Labour
What makes you think that voting Brexit Party will make it over soon?
> > @AndreaParma_82 said:
> > Germany distributing 96 MEPs on nation wide lists with no threshold is always fun in guessing which obscure parties will get in with 0.5 of the vote.
>
> Why no threshold for this? 5% is standard over there.
Why should there be? If you can get 1% of the vote, shouldn't you have 1% of the power?
I agree there will be major political blowback from No Deal as well. I think it’d be worse with Revoke.
++++++++++
Oh yes. In the event of No Deal and a nasty recession*, Jeremy Corbyn would probably end up in Number 10 with a stonking majority, and the ability to do some real damage to the UK over the next five years.
In the event of Revoke, the consequences for our democracy would be severe.
It's like being offered the choice between herpes and syphilis.
* As an aside, it's worth noting that we're probably due a recession now anyway.
I think this election is unpollable and that 8/1 is surely to long.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Cyclefree said:
> > > I strongly supported May’s deal and will vote Conservative tomorrow. But I’ll shed few tears should the BP outperform expectations and poll towards 40%. She’s got to go and I just can’t see any alternative to Johnson or Raab becoming leader and the U.K. slouching to a No Deal Brexit. It’ll probably end in tears (who knows) but it’s the course I now feel we have to tread.
> > >
> > > Why the hell should the country suffer to satisfy the loons in the Tory party and a party which has no MPs in Parliament and whose leader has failed in all his attempts at becoming an MP?
> > >
> > > The way Tories regularly conflate what is in their interests with what is in the country’s interests is despicable. Drive your own bus over a cliff if you must. But stop including the rest of us in your “we”.
> >
> > The country voted Leave, according to the latest Opinium more voters back No Deal than EUref2 or revoke and further extension combined
>
> EU referendum voting intention:
>
> Remain: 54% (+1)
> Leave: 46% (-1)
>
> via @Panelbase, 14 - 21 May
> Chgs. w/ 24 Apr
No higher than most of the polls had Remain ahead before the 2016 referendum
>
> No, the Brexit Party vote would collapse to the Tories if Boris went on a hard Brexit platform while Corbyn still refuses to back another referendum and even if he did that would hand northern and midlands Leave marginals to the Tories
------------
If the Tories run on a "Nigel is right" platform, what's to stop Nigel saying thank you very much and telling people to vote for the real thing?
> Just taken the 8/1 at Ladbrokes for Brexit Party to get 20-30% if the vote.
>
> I think this election is unpollable and that 8/1 is surely to long.
It does matxh some of the polls. I am on too.
>
> No higher than most of the polls had Remain ahead before the 2016 referendum
---------
It is higher than all but a handful of polls had Remain in 2016.
The reasoning of the Federal Court was that EU Parliament is not like a National Parliament with a government and so they don't need a working majority. And therefore a threshold is not necessary to allow the Parliament work.
It is a bit bizarre
> @dixiedean said:
> > @AndreaParma_82 said:
> > Germany distributing 96 MEPs on nation wide lists with no threshold is always fun in guessing which obscure parties will get in with 0.5 of the vote.
>
> Why no threshold for this? 5% is standard over there.
> they abolished in 2014. Constituional Court declared it invalid. Government proposed a new 3% threshold but also that one was ruled out by the court. They end up with no threshold and a party (Party for Labour, Rule of Law, Animal Protection, Promotion of Elites and Grassroots Democratic Initiative) getting a MEP with 0.6%
>
> The reasoning of the Federal Court was that EU Parliament is not like a National Parliament with a government and so they don't need a working majority. And therefore a threshold is not necessary to allow the Parliament work.
>
> It is a bit bizarre
>
> > @dixiedean said:
> > > @AndreaParma_82 said:
> > > Germany distributing 96 MEPs on nation wide lists with no threshold is always fun in guessing which obscure parties will get in with 0.5 of the vote.
> >
> > Why no threshold for this? 5% is standard over there.
>
> > @Casino_Royale said:
> >
> > It’s not six of one or half-a-dozen of the other. We *have* to Leave now or I fear our entire democratic consensus behind our Government in this country could collapse.
> >
> > If forced between Revoke or No Deal, I would choose the latter.
>
> If No Deal means the end of the union, why not start with an orderly dissolution of the UK and then ask England whether it still wants to be outside the EU?
It would do by an even greater margin, England alone voted 53.3% Leave, the UK only 51.8% Leave
>
> It would do by an even greater margin, England alone voted 53.3% Leave, the UK only 51.8% Leave
-------------
You can't extrapolate from that because it would be an utterly different context.
> https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1131261293791469570
A question on polling, how do they deal with postal votes?
Do they check if you have voted and treat that differently to intend to vote?
Would someone who voted Conservative by post 2 weeks ago but would now choose Brexit show as Brexit or Tory?
Does this vary by firm?
With postal voting increasing, turnout volatile and a swing during the campaign it seems this could account for quite a lot of volatility depending on how they address this.
Hey Presto! Nothing has Changed!
Off to meditate soon. May return to find Grayling has seized power or some such...
> No, the Brexit Party vote would collapse to the Tories if Boris went on a hard Brexit platform while Corbyn still refuses to back another referendum and even if he did that would hand northern and midlands Leave marginals to the Tories
I suspect TBP won't give up so easily. They may well put up candidates against the Conservatives and clearly have a game plan for attacking a Johnson leadership. They also have changed tack and are talking the Trumpian language of changing the political system which will attract many.
> > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > @Jonathan said:
> >
> > > > @JohnO said:
> >
> > > > I strongly supported May’s deal and will vote Conservative tomorrow. But I’ll shed few tears should the BP outperform expectations and poll towards 40%. She’s got to go and I just can’t see any alternative to Johnson or Raab becoming leader and the U.K. slouching to a No Deal Brexit. It’ll probably end in tears (who knows) but it’s the course I now feel we have to tread.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Can't you knock a few heads together and come up with someone a little more sensible than Raab C Brexit or Boris 'the ego' Johnson?
> >
> >
> >
> > Oh, the Baker, Bridgen, Francois, Jenkyns crowd will have won. Hate it, but there you go. The Flint, Nancy, Cooper, Benn mob on your side played for high stakes in their hope that scuppering the flawed May deal would lead to revoke or a referendum. It won’t. They should have looked beyond narrow advantage and realised that the best is usually the enemy of the good. But they didn’t. And serves them right.
> >
> > Exactly. Except not Flint. She’s been sensible throughout.
> >
> > It’s Labour who have also been instrumental in shooting this down, and are doing it even now.
> >
> > As far as I can tell May is giving them everything they wanted and they are *still* opposing it wholeheartedly.
> >
> > What Labour want is the destruction of the Tory party, which is what they are getting.
> >
> > The stupid Francois lot will get their No Deal Brexit and hand a weakened country to Corbyn. The malicious damaging fools.
> >
> > And they might rip themselves to shreds in the process. Their polling is also appalling.
> >
> > It’s beyond stupid, as the very bright James Kanagasooriam has pointed out.
>
> It is stupid for Labour generally but not for Corbyn Labour. Corbyn could never have won a majority to enact his program against a sensible Tory party. He did not see much difference between Blair and Cameron so has been quite happy to risk speeding up the re-alignment of politics, knowing it would lose Labour votes but expecting it to lose even more Tory votes as they are the party that the public will see as most responsible for Brexit.
I would not be certain of that, the only election Corbyn Labour has beaten the Tories in national voteshare was the 2016 local elections when Cameron was still Tory leader
> The French aren't even mentioning the fiasco that's happening across the channel. We're a laughing stock but they can't even be bothered to laugh.
>
> RN are likely to win the French European elections...
The FN comfortably won the 2014 European Elections in France, so I don't think that should surprise us.
> > @Nemtynakht said:
> > > @ah009 said:
> > > In 12 hours I will be voting in an election. I do not yet know whom I will vote for.
> > > I am no closer to deciding than I was a week ago. I've never struggled to make up my mind as much as this before.
> >
> > Do I support LD as I originally voted to remain, Conservative as I support the withdrawal agreement or Brexit Party because I just want it over as soon as possible.
> >
> > If you are struggling to make up your mind perhaps you could vote Labour
>
> What makes you think that voting Brexit Party will make it over soon?
Fair point. The only quick resolution in terms of Things Wot Need To Be Done is revoke.
There is no quick resolution in terms of What We Will Be Talking About.
I didn't used to be a revoker, but I'm definitely open to it now.