"What Happens When It Hits Land A tsunami’s trough, the low point beneath the wave’s crest, often reaches shore first. When it does, it produces a vacuum effect that sucks coastal water seaward and exposes harbor and sea floors. This retreating of sea water is an important warning sign of a tsunami, because the wave’s crest and its enormous volume of water typically hit shore five minutes or so later. Recognizing this phenomenon can save lives." https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/natural-disasters/tsunamis/
> @TGOHF said: > > @Sunil_Prasannan said: > > Terrible for Labour and Tories. > > > > > > > > The only excuse with any currency with me is that different voters turn up when locals are held at the same time as a GE. > > > > > > > > But dismal. Anyone who says otherwise is either lying or doesn’t understand politics. > > > > Labour seat losses = 76 > > Tory seat losses = 738 > > > > Labour councils lost = 3 > > Tory councils lost = 26 > > Cons losing 4.6 councillors per council. > > On track to end up 1,100-1,200 down.
Or about one Tory down for every minute since results starting being declared last night.
> @JonCisBack said: > > @JonCisBack said: > > Tories have so far lost 98 councillors in Somerset! Moggtastic > > Not quite that bad...my map clicking skills are somewhat wanting and North Devon is in, er, Devon it turns out...my bad > > but still not great and more results to come
Although with the skills of the boundary commission, such a small detail as a geographically designated name can not be taken to mean the name and location are 100% congruous.
Paddy Power's estimate of a fall off in takings were accurate as you would expect but the likes of Ladbrokes, Hills and Corals aren't saying much yet. It's my experience the betting shops here in East Ham are much quieter since the FOBT limit came in and it's hard to see other betting opportunities taking up the slack.
Sad if true. I was one of the few on here who argued against the Fobt limit and if it leads to the loss of high street bookmakers I shall be sad.
> @kinabalu said: > > @Bob__Sykes said: > > > In any event, I think once Brexit happens (in name only probably), which now seems increasingly likely before October (particularly after last night and the expected carnage of 23rd May if that happens), then Farage's fox is largely shot, the Brexiteer Tories will get what most of them think they want, and the Grieveite Tories will probably just shrug their shoulders, be grateful we haven't had a No Deal Brexit, and get back to worrying about a Marxist getting into power. > > * > > Yes, that is a credible alternative to the scenario I am postulating. > > And given it is less exciting then mine it is probably more likely.
How is "Brexit In Name Only" equivalent to "What the Brexiteer Tories think they want"?
> @GIN1138 said: > All this is just the warm up act for Nigel Farage. > > The star of the show is about to enter, stage left... > > #GetReady
If the polls are wrong and understating the votes for the Lib Dems, might the Brexit Party not be gaining an unwonted benefit the other way? Farage is very Marmite, and the people who hate him REALLY hate him.
Con sub 30 and the principle opposition sub 30 at the same time is pretty unusual... But to add in 25% for "Others" (and that's before the Brexit Party field a single candidate) is shocking no?
> @GIN1138 said: > All this is just the warm up act for Nigel Farage. > > The star of the show is about to enter, stage left... > > #GetReady
*
Indeed. It's going to be emotional. Careful with the expectations management though - at this rate if he doesn't make number 10 with a thumping overall majority before the year is out it will be an epic fail.
> @Sunil_Prasannan said: > Indies and green have gained more than the LDs. > > > > Suggests the LDs shouldnt get too excited. > > Broken, sleazy Tories down 782 seats
26.64% of councillors, the ratio is improving at least.
> @viewcode said: > Unrelated to local elections but the impact on a High Street near you may be approaching: > > > > https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/independent-bookmakers-hit-hard-as-fobt-revenues-plummet-40-per-cent/378830 > > > > Paddy Power's estimate of a fall off in takings were accurate as you would expect but the likes of Ladbrokes, Hills and Corals aren't saying much yet. It's my experience the betting shops here in East Ham are much quieter since the FOBT limit came in and it's hard to see other betting opportunities taking up the slack. > > Sad if true. I was one of the few on here who argued against the Fobt limit and if it leads to the loss of high street bookmakers I shall be sad.
Not me - no street needs or wants a bookies- no upside to having one.
> @Cicero said: > Yes commiserations to JohnO. I must admit to great surprise that Surrey- SURREY- has swung in quite the way it has. It was clearly nothing personal.
It's not that surprising. There's no point voting Tory when they give you the choice of building on the green belt or high rise tower blocks. The Lib Dems might not do anything different, but I can see why people wouldn't bother voting Tory.
> @Cicero said: > > @GIN1138 said: > > All this is just the warm up act for Nigel Farage. > > > > The star of the show is about to enter, stage left... > > > > #GetReady > > If the polls are wrong and understating the votes for the Lib Dems, might the Brexit Party not be gaining an unwonted benefit the other way? Farage is very Marmite, and the people who hate him REALLY hate him.
In most of these "shire" seats the Lib-Dems are the principle opposition to the Tories.
The Tory vote has stayed at home in disgust at what's happened with Brexit while the anti Tory vote has coalesced around the Lib-Dems.
In the EU election the Tory switches en-mass to Brexit Party as does a lot of the Labour leave vote.
Remain vote will slplit between Lib, Green and TIG so BP will end up with a thumping win.
That's what I think will happen anyway but as ever we shall see.
> @viewcode said: > Unrelated to local elections but the impact on a High Street near you may be approaching: > > > > https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/independent-bookmakers-hit-hard-as-fobt-revenues-plummet-40-per-cent/378830 > > > > Paddy Power's estimate of a fall off in takings were accurate as you would expect but the likes of Ladbrokes, Hills and Corals aren't saying much yet. It's my experience the betting shops here in East Ham are much quieter since the FOBT limit came in and it's hard to see other betting opportunities taking up the slack. > > Sad if true. I was one of the few on here who argued against the Fobt limit and if it leads to the loss of high street bookmakers I shall be sad.
Can't agree.
In my annual visit to the bookies to place my mate's mate's tip on the National i see some sad sights people with clearly not much money and vacant stares losing it in FOBTs. Horrific
Perhaps the wrong website for this (!) but i am pretty uncomfortable with the proliferation and normalisation of gambling in society. there will always be a small percentage who get in too deep.
> @GIN1138 said: > > @Cicero said: > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > All this is just the warm up act for Nigel Farage. > > > > > > The star of the show is about to enter, stage left... > > > > > > #GetReady > > > > If the polls are wrong and understating the votes for the Lib Dems, might the Brexit Party not be gaining an unwonted benefit the other way? Farage is very Marmite, and the people who hate him REALLY hate him. > > In most of these "shire" seats the Lib-Dems are the principle opposition to the Tories. > > The Tory vote has stayed at home in disgust at what's happened with Brexit while the anti Tory vote has coalesced around the Lib-Dems. > > In the EU election the Tory switches en-mass to Brexit Party as does a lot of the Labour leave vote. > > Remain vote will slip between Lib Green and TIG so BP will end up with a thumping win. > > That's what I think will happen anyway but as ever we shall see.
UKIP was an alternative to the Brexit Party in the locals - and they got hammered.
Con sub 30 and the principle opposition sub 30 at the same time is pretty unusual... But to add in 25% for "Others" (and that's before the Brexit Party field a single candidate) is shocking no?
Although that time it was UKIP making up the majority of Others, the overall figures seem closest to 2013.
> @dyedwoolie said: > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > Very surprised at the Newark and Sherwood result. Tories gained 3 seats and Labour lost 5. > > Palmer will be along to tell us how well labour are doing in notts
They have indeed done well in Bassetlaw as a counterweight to Newark.
> @logical_song said: > > @GIN1138 said: > > > @Cicero said: > > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > > All this is just the warm up act for Nigel Farage. > > > > > > > > The star of the show is about to enter, stage left... > > > > > > > > #GetReady > > > > > > If the polls are wrong and understating the votes for the Lib Dems, might the Brexit Party not be gaining an unwonted benefit the other way? Farage is very Marmite, and the people who hate him REALLY hate him. > > > > In most of these "shire" seats the Lib-Dems are the principle opposition to the Tories. > > > > The Tory vote has stayed at home in disgust at what's happened with Brexit while the anti Tory vote has coalesced around the Lib-Dems. > > > > In the EU election the Tory switches en-mass to Brexit Party as does a lot of the Labour leave vote. > > > > Remain vote will slip between Lib Green and TIG so BP will end up with a thumping win. > > > > That's what I think will happen anyway but as ever we shall see. > > UKIP was an alternative to the Brexit Party in the locals - and they got hammered.
UKIP are done. People don't vote ( generally) for a party that associates itself with racist thugs.
Shire Tories in particular are not going to vote for a party that's involved with Yaxley-Lennon... But they will vote for Farage's Brexit Party
> @Pulpstar said: > > @dyedwoolie said: > > > @Richard_Tyndall said: > > > Very surprised at the Newark and Sherwood result. Tories gained 3 seats and Labour lost 5. > > > > Palmer will be along to tell us how well labour are doing in notts > > They have indeed done well in Bassetlaw as a counterweight to Newark. > > Lab gain 4, Con losses 7.
A Leave voting town with a Leave voting Labour MP.
Not me - no street needs or wants a bookies- no upside to having one.
Nor any need - bet online.
*
You're right of course. But still, the warm fug of the shop on a freezing day, a haven from the nagging wife, the surly yet affectionate camaraderie with the other punters, all of them hiding from someone or something, the companionable silence broken only by the chesty coughs and grunts of mild disappointment as another dog or horse fails to deliver, and tickets get screwed up and tossed to the floor - this is a slice of England that will soon be no more and it merits a wistful mention.
> @JonCisBack said: > > @viewcode said: > > Unrelated to local elections but the impact on a High Street near you may be approaching: > > > > > > > > https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/independent-bookmakers-hit-hard-as-fobt-revenues-plummet-40-per-cent/378830 > > > > > > > > Paddy Power's estimate of a fall off in takings were accurate as you would expect but the likes of Ladbrokes, Hills and Corals aren't saying much yet. It's my experience the betting shops here in East Ham are much quieter since the FOBT limit came in and it's hard to see other betting opportunities taking up the slack. > > > > Sad if true. I was one of the few on here who argued against the Fobt limit and if it leads to the loss of high street bookmakers I shall be sad. > > Can't agree. > > In my annual visit to the bookies to place my mate's mate's tip on the National i see some sad sights people with clearly not much money and vacant stares losing it in FOBTs. Horrific > > Perhaps the wrong website for this (!) but i am pretty uncomfortable with the proliferation and normalisation of gambling in society. there will always be a small percentage who get in too deep. >
I have to agree - FOBTs were not betting in the way this site is where it is our expertise against the expertise of the people on the other side of the counter. I'm very glad to see them gone even though I do know it means some people will have to find new jobs.
> @eek said: > > @JonCisBack said: > > > @viewcode said: > > > Unrelated to local elections but the impact on a High Street near you may be approaching: > > > > > > > > > > > > https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/independent-bookmakers-hit-hard-as-fobt-revenues-plummet-40-per-cent/378830 > > > > > > > > > > > > Paddy Power's estimate of a fall off in takings were accurate as you would expect but the likes of Ladbrokes, Hills and Corals aren't saying much yet. It's my experience the betting shops here in East Ham are much quieter since the FOBT limit came in and it's hard to see other betting opportunities taking up the slack. > > > > > > Sad if true. I was one of the few on here who argued against the Fobt limit and if it leads to the loss of high street bookmakers I shall be sad. > > > > Can't agree. > > > > In my annual visit to the bookies to place my mate's mate's tip on the National i see some sad sights people with clearly not much money and vacant stares losing it in FOBTs. Horrific > > > > Perhaps the wrong website for this (!) but i am pretty uncomfortable with the proliferation and normalisation of gambling in society. there will always be a small percentage who get in too deep. > > > > I have to agree - FOBTs were not betting in the way this site is where it is our expertise against the expertise of the people on the other side of the counter. I'm very glad to see them gone even though I do know it means some people will have to find new jobs. > >
I'd close them in a heartbeat. They have long outlived their original purpose. The 'jobs' argument is vacuous.
Quite how CHUK and the Brexit Party are factored into that projected share is a mystery, if indeed either is. Neither has yet to contest an election. So it is a bit hard to take the precise figures very seriously without knowing the methodology.
Not me - no street needs or wants a bookies- no upside to having one.
Nor any need - bet online.
*
You're right of course. But still, the warm fug of the shop on a freezing day, a haven from the nagging wife, the surly yet affectionate camaraderie with the other punters, all of them hiding from someone or something, the companionable silence broken only by the chesty coughs and grunts of mild disappointment as another dog or horse fails to deliver, and tickets get screwed up and tossed to the floor - this is a slice of England that will soon be no more and it merits a wistful mention.
It went long ago I think. I worked in betting shops in the late 90s and it was just how you described it. But now they’re desolate, miserable and empty. It’s all online and I can’t see a way of that changing except maybe applying a tax on online bets. There is probably enough business for maybe one shop per town.
> @TudorRose said: > > @TheValiant said: > > My canvassing skills are awesome, I could get a Tory elected in Bootle. > > > > No, you really couldn’t. > > You could try pinning a red rosette on them....
Tories tried that with UKIP colours in the Eastleigh by-election after Huhne went. Didn’t go well - but nothing Shapps did worked well.
> @TheScreamingEagles said: > So what moniker should I use for Gavin Williamson? > > Disgraced national security risk is already used by Liam Fox, or is Gav the Miles Morales to Liam's Peter Parker?
"a self-confessed traitor who wished to profit from his treachery"?
> @Jonathan said: > Blimey we have now two green councillors in darkest Blue Horsham. (Tory losses)
The Greens are also doing well in Wealden. Two seats so far, with quite a few results to come. Also they have achieved some respectable second places. It's hard to compare with 2015, though, because there have been extensive boundary changes.
> @Wulfrun_Phil said: > > @Scott_P said: > > https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1124314584104493057 > > Quite how CHUK and the Brexit Party are factored into that projected share is a mystery, if indeed either is. Neither has yet to contest an election. So it is a bit hard to take the precise figures very seriously without knowing the methodology.
It's not a prediction for the general election. It's a way to compare the results between local elections held in different parts of the country from year to year to provide a simple way to judge who won and who lost.
And it clearly shows that the two main parties lost. Big time.
So a massive opportunity for both the Brexit Party and Change UK, but can't say anything about how they would do because they didn't stand.
> @Wulfrun_Phil said: > > @Scott_P said: > > https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1124314584104493057 > > Quite how CHUK and the Brexit Party are factored into that projected share is a mystery, if indeed either is. Neither has yet to contest an election. So it is a bit hard to take the precise figures very seriously without knowing the methodology.
They aren't. It's a representation simply of yesterday's results as if every seat had been up for election in England
> @dyedwoolie said: > Con leader of Canterbury council loses
Cons holding up better than expected across Canterbury overall, but my ward just voted for three Labour councillors, changing it from a 2/1 Tory-Labour split. Whitstable is now a very Labour place. All the down from Londoners.
> @TheWhiteRabbit said: > > @Wulfrun_Phil said: > > > @Scott_P said: > > > https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1124314584104493057 > > > > Quite how CHUK and the Brexit Party are factored into that projected share is a mystery, if indeed either is. Neither has yet to contest an election. So it is a bit hard to take the precise figures very seriously without knowing the methodology. > > They aren't. It's a representation simply of yesterday's results as if every seat had been up for election in England
Would you bet on Labour or Con increasing their NEV share in the Euro elections ?
> @Sunil_Prasannan said: > > @Sunil_Prasannan said: > > > 26.4%, Tories stemming the ratio of flow of losses > > > > > > Tory losses now exceed 800 seats > > > > I think they will end up over 1300 down, maybe even over 1400. > > Tories just lost their 30th council.
Which will happen first; Tories go -1000 or Labour go -100?
Where are you looking? On the BBC site it's -91 currently. (Possibly they don't include any figures for a council until the count for a council is complete.)
It went long ago I think. I worked in betting shops in the late 90s and it was just how you described it. But now they’re desolate, miserable and empty. It’s all online and I can’t see a way of that changing except maybe applying a tax on online bets. There is probably enough business for maybe one shop per town.
*
That is true. I pop in still - I like to do the odd cash bet - but it is rather grim and I am not tempted to linger.
> @Cicero said: > > @TGOHF said: > > Indies and green have gained more than the LDs. > > > > Suggests the LDs shouldnt get too excited. > > No they haven't. The Lib Dems have gained over 450 as i write, while Greens have gained 102 and Others 150.
BBC reporting Independents up 370. The figures are a bit different depending where you look. What's your source?
> @TudorRose said: > > @Sunil_Prasannan said: > > > @Sunil_Prasannan said: > > > > > 26.4%, Tories stemming the ratio of flow of losses > > > > > > > > > > Tory losses now exceed 800 seats > > > > > > > > I think they will end up over 1300 down, maybe even over 1400. > > > > Tories just lost their 30th council. > > Which will happen first; Tories go -1000 or Labour go -100?
Ooh I like that one. I'll go for Tories -1000 first.
> @Cicero said: > > @TGOHF said: > > Indies and green have gained more than the LDs. > > > > Suggests the LDs shouldnt get too excited. > > No they haven't. The Lib Dems have gained over 450 as i write, while Greens have gained 102 and Others 150.
> @paulyork64 said: > > @TudorRose said: > > > @Sunil_Prasannan said: > > > > @Sunil_Prasannan said: > > > > > > > 26.4%, Tories stemming the ratio of flow of losses > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Tory losses now exceed 800 seats > > > > > > > > > > > > I think they will end up over 1300 down, maybe even over 1400. > > > > > > Tories just lost their 30th council. > > > > Which will happen first; Tories go -1000 or Labour go -100? > > Ooh I like that one. I'll go for Tories -1000 first.
It'll be close but I reckon it'll be Labour -100 first.
> @isam said: > > @TGOHF said: > > > > Not me - no street needs or wants a bookies- no upside to having one. > > > > Nor any need - bet online. > > > > * > > > > You're right of course. But still, the warm fug of the shop on a freezing day, a haven from the nagging wife, the surly yet affectionate camaraderie with the other punters, all of them hiding from someone or something, the companionable silence broken only by the chesty coughs and grunts of mild disappointment as another dog or horse fails to deliver, and tickets get screwed up and tossed to the floor - this is a slice of England that will soon be no more and it merits a wistful mention. > > It went long ago I think. I worked in betting shops in the late 90s and it was just how you described it. But now they’re desolate, miserable and empty. It’s all online and I can’t see a way of that changing except maybe applying a tax on online bets. There is probably enough business for maybe one shop per town.
There's a very nice Ladbrokes near Cheltenham that I use but mostly they're toilets now. Yes, I remember how they used to be, exactly as described above, but that all went soem time back. It's time to close them down.
> @Cicero said: > > @TGOHF said: > > Indies and green have gained more than the LDs. > > > > Suggests the LDs shouldnt get too excited. > > No they haven't. The Lib Dems have gained over 450 as i write, while Greens have gained 102 and Others 150.
Comments
A tsunami’s trough, the low point beneath the wave’s crest, often reaches shore first. When it does, it produces a vacuum effect that sucks coastal water seaward and exposes harbor and sea floors. This retreating of sea water is an important warning sign of a tsunami, because the wave’s crest and its enormous volume of water typically hit shore five minutes or so later. Recognizing this phenomenon can save lives."
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/natural-disasters/tsunamis/
> Very sad that JohnO has fallen. Top class chap.
He'll be off to the Lords when Raab becomes PM.
> > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
> > Terrible for Labour and Tories.
> >
> >
> >
> > The only excuse with any currency with me is that different voters turn up when locals are held at the same time as a GE.
> >
> >
> >
> > But dismal. Anyone who says otherwise is either lying or doesn’t understand politics.
> >
> > Labour seat losses = 76
> > Tory seat losses = 738
> >
> > Labour councils lost = 3
> > Tory councils lost = 26
>
> Cons losing 4.6 councillors per council.
>
> On track to end up 1,100-1,200 down.
Or about one Tory down for every minute since results starting being declared last night.
https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1124310048249995267
> > @JonCisBack said:
> > Tories have so far lost 98 councillors in Somerset! Moggtastic
>
> Not quite that bad...my map clicking skills are somewhat wanting and North Devon is in, er, Devon it turns out...my bad
>
> but still not great and more results to come
Although with the skills of the boundary commission, such a small detail as a geographically designated name can not be taken to mean the name and location are 100% congruous.
>
>
> Is this an endorsement by Mark Francois of the Brexit party?
Don't think so - unless he thinks Tsunami's are a good thing.
> https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1124309667620978688
Shocking!
> https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1124309667620978688
Wow
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsunami#Drawback
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1124309667620978688
>
> Shocking!
what part is shocking?
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > > @Scott_P said:
> > > https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1124309667620978688
> >
> > Shocking!
>
> what part is shocking?
25% for Others?
> > @Bob__Sykes said:
>
> > In any event, I think once Brexit happens (in name only probably), which now seems increasingly likely before October (particularly after last night and the expected carnage of 23rd May if that happens), then Farage's fox is largely shot, the Brexiteer Tories will get what most of them think they want, and the Grieveite Tories will probably just shrug their shoulders, be grateful we haven't had a No Deal Brexit, and get back to worrying about a Marxist getting into power.
>
> *
>
> Yes, that is a credible alternative to the scenario I am postulating.
>
> And given it is less exciting then mine it is probably more likely.
How is "Brexit In Name Only" equivalent to "What the Brexiteer Tories think they want"?
> All this is just the warm up act for Nigel Farage.
>
> The star of the show is about to enter, stage left...
>
> #GetReady
If the polls are wrong and understating the votes for the Lib Dems, might the Brexit Party not be gaining an unwonted benefit the other way? Farage is very Marmite, and the people who hate him REALLY hate him.
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > > @Scott_P said:
> > > https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1124309667620978688
> >
> > Shocking!
>
> what part is shocking?
Con sub 30 and the principle opposition sub 30 at the same time is pretty unusual... But to add in 25% for "Others" (and that's before the Brexit Party field a single candidate) is shocking no?
> All this is just the warm up act for Nigel Farage.
>
> The star of the show is about to enter, stage left...
>
> #GetReady
*
Indeed. It's going to be emotional. Careful with the expectations management though - at this rate if he doesn't make number 10 with a thumping overall majority before the year is out it will be an epic fail.
> Indies and green have gained more than the LDs.
>
>
>
> Suggests the LDs shouldnt get too excited.
>
> Broken, sleazy Tories down 782 seats
26.64% of councillors, the ratio is improving at least.
> North of Tyne expected soon
Looked to big a gap to cover to be honest.
> Unrelated to local elections but the impact on a High Street near you may be approaching:
>
>
>
> https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/independent-bookmakers-hit-hard-as-fobt-revenues-plummet-40-per-cent/378830
>
>
>
> Paddy Power's estimate of a fall off in takings were accurate as you would expect but the likes of Ladbrokes, Hills and Corals aren't saying much yet. It's my experience the betting shops here in East Ham are much quieter since the FOBT limit came in and it's hard to see other betting opportunities taking up the slack.
>
> Sad if true. I was one of the few on here who argued against the Fobt limit and if it leads to the loss of high street bookmakers I shall be sad.
Not me - no street needs or wants a bookies- no upside to having one.
Nor any need - bet online.
> Yes commiserations to JohnO. I must admit to great surprise that Surrey- SURREY- has swung in quite the way it has. It was clearly nothing personal.
It's not that surprising. There's no point voting Tory when they give you the choice of building on the green belt or high rise tower blocks. The Lib Dems might not do anything different, but I can see why people wouldn't bother voting Tory.
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > All this is just the warm up act for Nigel Farage.
> >
> > The star of the show is about to enter, stage left...
> >
> > #GetReady
>
> If the polls are wrong and understating the votes for the Lib Dems, might the Brexit Party not be gaining an unwonted benefit the other way? Farage is very Marmite, and the people who hate him REALLY hate him.
In most of these "shire" seats the Lib-Dems are the principle opposition to the Tories.
The Tory vote has stayed at home in disgust at what's happened with Brexit while the anti Tory vote has coalesced around the Lib-Dems.
In the EU election the Tory switches en-mass to Brexit Party as does a lot of the Labour leave vote.
Remain vote will slplit between Lib, Green and TIG so BP will end up with a thumping win.
That's what I think will happen anyway but as ever we shall see.
> Unrelated to local elections but the impact on a High Street near you may be approaching:
>
>
>
> https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/independent-bookmakers-hit-hard-as-fobt-revenues-plummet-40-per-cent/378830
>
>
>
> Paddy Power's estimate of a fall off in takings were accurate as you would expect but the likes of Ladbrokes, Hills and Corals aren't saying much yet. It's my experience the betting shops here in East Ham are much quieter since the FOBT limit came in and it's hard to see other betting opportunities taking up the slack.
>
> Sad if true. I was one of the few on here who argued against the Fobt limit and if it leads to the loss of high street bookmakers I shall be sad.
Can't agree.
In my annual visit to the bookies to place my mate's mate's tip on the National i see some sad sights people with clearly not much money and vacant stares losing it in FOBTs. Horrific
Perhaps the wrong website for this (!) but i am pretty uncomfortable with the proliferation and normalisation of gambling in society. there will always be a small percentage who get in too deep.
> Very surprised at the Newark and Sherwood result. Tories gained 3 seats and Labour lost 5.
Palmer will be along to tell us how well labour are doing in notts
> > @Cicero said:
> > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > All this is just the warm up act for Nigel Farage.
> > >
> > > The star of the show is about to enter, stage left...
> > >
> > > #GetReady
> >
> > If the polls are wrong and understating the votes for the Lib Dems, might the Brexit Party not be gaining an unwonted benefit the other way? Farage is very Marmite, and the people who hate him REALLY hate him.
>
> In most of these "shire" seats the Lib-Dems are the principle opposition to the Tories.
>
> The Tory vote has stayed at home in disgust at what's happened with Brexit while the anti Tory vote has coalesced around the Lib-Dems.
>
> In the EU election the Tory switches en-mass to Brexit Party as does a lot of the Labour leave vote.
>
> Remain vote will slip between Lib Green and TIG so BP will end up with a thumping win.
>
> That's what I think will happen anyway but as ever we shall see.
UKIP was an alternative to the Brexit Party in the locals - and they got hammered.
> > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
> > North of Tyne expected soon
>
> Looked to big a gap to cover to be honest.
I agree, the fact it is even this close is a surprise, remember Lab were 1/16
> > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > Very surprised at the Newark and Sherwood result. Tories gained 3 seats and Labour lost 5.
>
> Palmer will be along to tell us how well labour are doing in notts
They have indeed done well in Bassetlaw as a counterweight to Newark.
Lab gain 4, Con losses 7.
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > > @Cicero said:
> > > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > > All this is just the warm up act for Nigel Farage.
> > > >
> > > > The star of the show is about to enter, stage left...
> > > >
> > > > #GetReady
> > >
> > > If the polls are wrong and understating the votes for the Lib Dems, might the Brexit Party not be gaining an unwonted benefit the other way? Farage is very Marmite, and the people who hate him REALLY hate him.
> >
> > In most of these "shire" seats the Lib-Dems are the principle opposition to the Tories.
> >
> > The Tory vote has stayed at home in disgust at what's happened with Brexit while the anti Tory vote has coalesced around the Lib-Dems.
> >
> > In the EU election the Tory switches en-mass to Brexit Party as does a lot of the Labour leave vote.
> >
> > Remain vote will slip between Lib Green and TIG so BP will end up with a thumping win.
> >
> > That's what I think will happen anyway but as ever we shall see.
>
> UKIP was an alternative to the Brexit Party in the locals - and they got hammered.
UKIP are done. People don't vote ( generally) for a party that associates itself with racist thugs.
Shire Tories in particular are not going to vote for a party that's involved with Yaxley-Lennon... But they will vote for Farage's Brexit Party
> > @JackW said:
> > Very sad that JohnO has fallen. Top class chap.
>
> Agreed. Still, at least he didn't lose to a LibDem!
JohnO would have "fallen" on his sword after such a calamity !!
> > @dyedwoolie said:
> > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > > Very surprised at the Newark and Sherwood result. Tories gained 3 seats and Labour lost 5.
> >
> > Palmer will be along to tell us how well labour are doing in notts
>
> They have indeed done well in Bassetlaw as a counterweight to Newark.
>
> Lab gain 4, Con losses 7.
A Leave voting town with a Leave voting Labour MP.
Not me - no street needs or wants a bookies- no upside to having one.
Nor any need - bet online.
*
You're right of course. But still, the warm fug of the shop on a freezing day, a haven from the nagging wife, the surly yet affectionate camaraderie with the other punters, all of them hiding from someone or something, the companionable silence broken only by the chesty coughs and grunts of mild disappointment as another dog or horse fails to deliver, and tickets get screwed up and tossed to the floor - this is a slice of England that will soon be no more and it merits a wistful mention.
> > @viewcode said:
> > Unrelated to local elections but the impact on a High Street near you may be approaching:
> >
> >
> >
> > https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/independent-bookmakers-hit-hard-as-fobt-revenues-plummet-40-per-cent/378830
> >
> >
> >
> > Paddy Power's estimate of a fall off in takings were accurate as you would expect but the likes of Ladbrokes, Hills and Corals aren't saying much yet. It's my experience the betting shops here in East Ham are much quieter since the FOBT limit came in and it's hard to see other betting opportunities taking up the slack.
> >
> > Sad if true. I was one of the few on here who argued against the Fobt limit and if it leads to the loss of high street bookmakers I shall be sad.
>
> Can't agree.
>
> In my annual visit to the bookies to place my mate's mate's tip on the National i see some sad sights people with clearly not much money and vacant stares losing it in FOBTs. Horrific
>
> Perhaps the wrong website for this (!) but i am pretty uncomfortable with the proliferation and normalisation of gambling in society. there will always be a small percentage who get in too deep.
>
I have to agree - FOBTs were not betting in the way this site is where it is our expertise against the expertise of the people on the other side of the counter. I'm very glad to see them gone even though I do know it means some people will have to find new jobs.
Poor old Gove
> > @JonCisBack said:
> > > @viewcode said:
> > > Unrelated to local elections but the impact on a High Street near you may be approaching:
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/independent-bookmakers-hit-hard-as-fobt-revenues-plummet-40-per-cent/378830
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Paddy Power's estimate of a fall off in takings were accurate as you would expect but the likes of Ladbrokes, Hills and Corals aren't saying much yet. It's my experience the betting shops here in East Ham are much quieter since the FOBT limit came in and it's hard to see other betting opportunities taking up the slack.
> > >
> > > Sad if true. I was one of the few on here who argued against the Fobt limit and if it leads to the loss of high street bookmakers I shall be sad.
> >
> > Can't agree.
> >
> > In my annual visit to the bookies to place my mate's mate's tip on the National i see some sad sights people with clearly not much money and vacant stares losing it in FOBTs. Horrific
> >
> > Perhaps the wrong website for this (!) but i am pretty uncomfortable with the proliferation and normalisation of gambling in society. there will always be a small percentage who get in too deep.
> >
>
> I have to agree - FOBTs were not betting in the way this site is where it is our expertise against the expertise of the people on the other side of the counter. I'm very glad to see them gone even though I do know it means some people will have to find new jobs.
>
>
I'd close them in a heartbeat. They have long outlived their original purpose. The 'jobs' argument is vacuous.
> https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1124314584104493057
Quite how CHUK and the Brexit Party are factored into that projected share is a mystery, if indeed either is. Neither has yet to contest an election. So it is a bit hard to take the precise figures very seriously without knowing the methodology.
> My canvassing skills are awesome, I could get a Tory elected in Bootle.
>
> No, you really couldn’t.
You could try pinning a red rosette on them....
> 26.4%, Tories stemming the ratio of flow of losses
>
> Tory losses now exceed 800 seats
Ratio of losses to council rising - now 4.61
> 26.4%, Tories stemming the ratio of flow of losses
>
> Tory losses now exceed 800 seats
I think they will end up over 1300 down, maybe even over 1400.
Disgraced national security risk is already used for Liam Fox, or is Gav the Miles Morales to Liam's Peter Parker?
> > @TheValiant said:
> > My canvassing skills are awesome, I could get a Tory elected in Bootle.
> >
> > No, you really couldn’t.
>
> You could try pinning a red rosette on them....
Tories tried that with UKIP colours in the Eastleigh by-election after Huhne went. Didn’t go well - but nothing Shapps did worked well.
> So what moniker should I use for Gavin Williamson?
>
> Disgraced national security risk is already used by Liam Fox, or is Gav the Miles Morales to Liam's Peter Parker?
"a self-confessed traitor who wished to profit from his treachery"?
> Blimey we have now two green councillors in darkest Blue Horsham. (Tory losses)
The Greens are also doing well in Wealden. Two seats so far, with quite a few results to come. Also they have achieved some respectable second places. It's hard to compare with 2015, though, because there have been extensive boundary changes.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1124314584104493057
>
> Quite how CHUK and the Brexit Party are factored into that projected share is a mystery, if indeed either is. Neither has yet to contest an election. So it is a bit hard to take the precise figures very seriously without knowing the methodology.
It's not a prediction for the general election. It's a way to compare the results between local elections held in different parts of the country from year to year to provide a simple way to judge who won and who lost.
And it clearly shows that the two main parties lost. Big time.
So a massive opportunity for both the Brexit Party and Change UK, but can't say anything about how they would do because they didn't stand.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1124314584104493057
>
> Quite how CHUK and the Brexit Party are factored into that projected share is a mystery, if indeed either is. Neither has yet to contest an election. So it is a bit hard to take the precise figures very seriously without knowing the methodology.
They aren't. It's a representation simply of yesterday's results as if every seat had been up for election in England
> Indies and green have gained more than the LDs.
>
> Suggests the LDs shouldnt get too excited.
No they haven't. The Lib Dems have gained over 450 as i write, while Greens have gained 102 and Others 150.
> Con leader of Canterbury council loses
Cons holding up better than expected across Canterbury overall, but my ward just voted for three Labour councillors, changing it from a 2/1 Tory-Labour split. Whitstable is now a very Labour place. All the down from Londoners.
https://election.news.sky.com/england-local-council-elections-26
> > @Wulfrun_Phil said:
> > > @Scott_P said:
> > > https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1124314584104493057
> >
> > Quite how CHUK and the Brexit Party are factored into that projected share is a mystery, if indeed either is. Neither has yet to contest an election. So it is a bit hard to take the precise figures very seriously without knowing the methodology.
>
> They aren't. It's a representation simply of yesterday's results as if every seat had been up for election in England
Would you bet on Labour or Con increasing their NEV share in the Euro elections ?
> > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
>
> > 26.4%, Tories stemming the ratio of flow of losses
>
> >
>
> > Tory losses now exceed 800 seats
>
>
>
> I think they will end up over 1300 down, maybe even over 1400.
>
> Tories just lost their 30th council.
Which will happen first; Tories go -1000 or Labour go -100?
> Last time I checked a few hours ago Labour were down 75 councillors. Now it's 110. They've also lost 5 councils compared to 3.
>
> https://election.news.sky.com/england-local-council-elections-26
Where are you looking? On the BBC site it's -91 currently. (Possibly they don't include any figures for a council until the count for a council is complete.)
Round II
Driscoll (Momentum/Lab) 76,862 votes.
Hoult (Con) 60,089
It went long ago I think. I worked in betting shops in the late 90s and it was just how you described it. But now they’re desolate, miserable and empty. It’s all online and I can’t see a way of that changing except maybe applying a tax on online bets. There is probably enough business for maybe one shop per town.
*
That is true. I pop in still - I like to do the odd cash bet - but it is rather grim and I am not tempted to linger.
> > @TGOHF said:
> > Indies and green have gained more than the LDs.
> >
> > Suggests the LDs shouldnt get too excited.
>
> No they haven't. The Lib Dems have gained over 450 as i write, while Greens have gained 102 and Others 150.
BBC reporting Independents up 370. The figures are a bit different depending where you look. What's your source?
> > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
> > > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
> >
> > > 26.4%, Tories stemming the ratio of flow of losses
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Tory losses now exceed 800 seats
> >
> >
> >
> > I think they will end up over 1300 down, maybe even over 1400.
> >
> > Tories just lost their 30th council.
>
> Which will happen first; Tories go -1000 or Labour go -100?
Ooh I like that one. I'll go for Tories -1000 first.
> People on here told me there's no way the Tories were going to lose 1,000 seats.....hmmmmm
Con party can't even do expectation management.
> Tories defending all 18 seats in Tunbridge Wells; held only five.
Sounds like the electorate there are well & truly disgusted.
> https://twitter.com/bbcelection/status/1124317921331773441
Labour shambles in the Northeast continues. No longer a heartland.
> In about 35 minutes, the Conservatives should overhaul the combined Labour and Lib Dem seat total.
And chalk up another 35 lost seats
> > @TGOHF said:
> > Indies and green have gained more than the LDs.
> >
> > Suggests the LDs shouldnt get too excited.
>
> No they haven't. The Lib Dems have gained over 450 as i write, while Greens have gained 102 and Others 150.
BBC have Indies +382 and others on 0.
> > @TudorRose said:
> > > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
> > > > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
> > >
> > > > 26.4%, Tories stemming the ratio of flow of losses
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > Tory losses now exceed 800 seats
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > I think they will end up over 1300 down, maybe even over 1400.
> > >
> > > Tories just lost their 30th council.
> >
> > Which will happen first; Tories go -1000 or Labour go -100?
>
> Ooh I like that one. I'll go for Tories -1000 first.
It'll be close but I reckon it'll be Labour -100 first.
> > @TGOHF said:
>
>
>
> Not me - no street needs or wants a bookies- no upside to having one.
>
>
>
> Nor any need - bet online.
>
>
>
> *
>
>
>
> You're right of course. But still, the warm fug of the shop on a freezing day, a haven from the nagging wife, the surly yet affectionate camaraderie with the other punters, all of them hiding from someone or something, the companionable silence broken only by the chesty coughs and grunts of mild disappointment as another dog or horse fails to deliver, and tickets get screwed up and tossed to the floor - this is a slice of England that will soon be no more and it merits a wistful mention.
>
> It went long ago I think. I worked in betting shops in the late 90s and it was just how you described it. But now they’re desolate, miserable and empty. It’s all online and I can’t see a way of that changing except maybe applying a tax on online bets. There is probably enough business for maybe one shop per town.
There's a very nice Ladbrokes near Cheltenham that I use but mostly they're toilets now. Yes, I remember how they used to be, exactly as described above, but that all went soem time back. It's time to close them down.
> > @TGOHF said:
> > Indies and green have gained more than the LDs.
> >
> > Suggests the LDs shouldnt get too excited.
>
> No they haven't. The Lib Dems have gained over 450 as i write, while Greens have gained 102 and Others 150.
Independents +378
Greens + 124
Residents +13
ichc +6
TOTAL +521
LDs + 475
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/ceeqy0e9894t/england-local-elections-2019#councils-a