Seats to watch at a GE in the NE might include Darlington, Bishop Auckland, Stockton south, Sedgefield, Tynemouth, the likes of Blaydon if the cancer spreads.......
> @Sean_F said: > > @Sean_F said: > > Con hold Solihull (just). > > But, lose Mendip to NOC. For some reason, the Conservatives are performing terribly in Somerset.
Paddy Power's estimate of a fall off in takings were accurate as you would expect but the likes of Ladbrokes, Hills and Corals aren't saying much yet. It's my experience the betting shops here in East Ham are much quieter since the FOBT limit came in and it's hard to see other betting opportunities taking up the slack.
> @Sean_F said: > > @Sean_F said: > > Con hold Solihull (just). > > But, lose Mendip to NOC. For some reason, the Conservatives are performing terribly in Somerset.
Tories are doing badly in the South; Labour are doing badly in the North. It’s protest vote politics. Of that long since Solihull had a LD MP so suspect they still have a strong base there.
> @SandyRentool said: > So despite all the noise an bluster, the Tories have 'won' on notional national vote share. > > Agree that this is shite for Labour.
It's desperately bad when the PM is being told to resign at her own party conference and the Opposition still can't come up on top.
FPTP is currently the only thing standing between Labour and oblivion.
> @AmpfieldAndy said: > > @Sean_F said: > > > @Sean_F said: > > > Con hold Solihull (just). > > > > But, lose Mendip to NOC. For some reason, the Conservatives are performing terribly in Somerset. > > Tories are doing badly in the South; Labour are doing badly in the North. It’s protest vote politics. Of that long since Solihull had a LD MP so suspect they still have a strong base there.
The Tories are not doing badly everywhere in the South. There have been some very strong results, as well as bad ones.
> @Sean_F said: > > @AmpfieldAndy said: > > > @Sean_F said: > > > > @Sean_F said: > > > > Con hold Solihull (just). > > > > > > But, lose Mendip to NOC. For some reason, the Conservatives are performing terribly in Somerset. > > > > Tories are doing badly in the South; Labour are doing badly in the North. It’s protest vote politics. Of that long since Solihull had a LD MP so suspect they still have a strong base there. > > The Tories are not doing badly everywhere in the South. There have been some very strong results, as well as bad ones.
> But, lose Mendip to NOC. For some reason, the Conservatives are performing terribly in Somerset.
Tories are doing badly in the South; Labour are doing badly in the North. It’s protest vote politics. Of that long since Solihull had a LD MP so suspect they still have a strong base there.
> I'm not wrong in thinking that (for the Blues at least) its neither as bad as the possible 1,000 councillor losses a few were predicting, but not as good as the 350 losses a few on here thought they might keep it to.
>
> Great night for the Lib Dems/Greens. Pretty poor for Labour.
> I really don't know what message this is telling us about Brexit.
> I think if Labour and the Conservatives don't sort something soon they are going to both start being seriously harmed. Doubt Labour under Corbyn have what it takes. Doubt the Conservatives under May have either.
I think it will round about 1,000 by the end of the day...
Sadly, the deluded crazy woman who's superglued herself into Downing Street will take this dreadful performance as validation of her terrible deal/sell out.
True. But I think we are seeing the return of the LDs as an electoral force. And in the GE, hopefully they will get back to doing the thing they do best - what they exist for really - which is taking seats off the Tories in affluent and/or quirky parts of the country where they have a tradition and in the process enabling Labour to win outright on a modest vote share.
The combined total of Independent/Green/Others net gains has been catching up with and has now just passed those of the Lib Dems, according to the BBC site. +402 compared to +399 as I write.
> @Sean_F said: > > @AmpfieldAndy said: > > > @Sean_F said: > > > > @Sean_F said: > > > > Con hold Solihull (just). > > > > > > But, lose Mendip to NOC. For some reason, the Conservatives are performing terribly in Somerset. > > > > Tories are doing badly in the South; Labour are doing badly in the North. It’s protest vote politics. Of that long since Solihull had a LD MP so suspect they still have a strong base there. > > The Tories are not doing badly everywhere in the South. There have been some very strong results, as well as bad ones.
Labour has some good results in the north too, Trafford (I think) and my area Bassetlaw for instance.
> @TheValiant said: > > @TheValiant said: > > > I'm not wrong in thinking that (for the Blues at least) its neither as bad as the possible 1,000 councillor losses a few were predicting, but not as good as the 350 losses a few on here thought they might keep it to. > > > > > > Great night for the Lib Dems/Greens. Pretty poor for Labour. > > > I really don't know what message this is telling us about Brexit. > > > I think if Labour and the Conservatives don't sort something soon they are going to both start being seriously harmed. Doubt Labour under Corbyn have what it takes. Doubt the Conservatives under May have either. > > > > I think it will round about 1,000 by the end of the day... > > Oh yeah. Looking that way now isn't it?
Do we think Mrs May is going to break the magic 1,000 barrier then? It woud be nowhere near a record but an outstanding performance considering the unpopularity of the LOTO and the divisions in Labour.
The ratio of councillors lost to councils reporting is deterioating for the Tories. We are almost certainly looking in excess of 1000 now, more like 1,200.
> @kinabalu said: > The header is spot on. As a Labour supporter it pains me to say it but what a great day for the Lib Dems. They are surely the big story here. All the chatter about Vince Cable not cutting through as leader, being 'invisible' and 'low energy' etc etc, turns out to be bollox. These results are a triumph for his party and a vindication of the man. He can go out on a high now, assuming he does not change his mind about standing down this summer, and I'm pleased about that. As the only serious politician in the Western Hemisphere to predict the Great Financial Crash of 2008, he deserves no less.
But it is a protest and Ant-establshment vote - support for them has always been 'easy come - easy go' - very little depth or core vote as such.
If the LDs are the NOTA party again, inheriting that mantle from UKIP's interregnum, presumably previous UKIP voters who voted UKIP on account of Brexit believe that Brexit is now done and dusted.
The ratio of councillors lost to councils reporting is deterioating for the Tories. We are almost certainly looking in excess of 1000 now, more like 1,200.
That's a very bad result by any measure.
The Conservatives have done relatively better in the more urban northern councils that tended to report results earlier. The more rural councils, which report later, have been carnage for them. 1,200 losses might be an underestimate.
> @AlastairMeeks said: > The ratio of councillors lost to councils reporting is deterioating for the Tories. We are almost certainly looking in excess of 1000 now, more like 1,200. > > > > That's a very bad result by any measure. > > The Conservatives have done relatively better in the more urban northern councils that tended to report results earlier. The more rural councils, which report later, have been carnage for them. 1,200 losses might be an underestimate.
Yeah, that's the way I'm seeing it. Also in the more urban councils they had very little to actually lose. In the Shires there are lots of soft targets.
> @malcolmg said: > He will give a referendum for sure to get some kind of confidence deal that gets him in Number 10
*
If he does, and it goes for Sindy, and hence Westminster loses Scottish representation, I can envisage that Corbyn Labour government being the last Labour government we ever see. After that it will be years and years of right and centre right. So they will need to make it count.
> @dyedwoolie said: > Seats to watch at a GE in the NE might include Darlington, Bishop Auckland, Stockton south, Sedgefield, Tynemouth, the likes of Blaydon if the cancer spreads.......
I can't see Tynenouth or Blaydon going as they are more in the orbit of Newcastle.
Lab's most at risk seats in the NE are:
Bishop Auckland Stockton S Darlington Hartlepool Sedgefield Durham NW Stockton N Redcar Blyth Valley Sunderland C
All these saw swings away from Lab last election (except Stockton S which saw a big swing to Labour and Hartlepool which saw a small swing to Labour)
A couple of comments to add to what people have said already:
- The National Equivalent Vote share figures might be overstating the Conservative position. This is because it is calculated using the historic relationship between vote shares in the local elections being contested and the GE vote shares. However, that historic relationship is likely to be distorted by Brexit, which cuts across normal party geographic distributions. In particular I suspect that extrapolating vote changes in rural and smaller town results to London might well underestimate the Brexit damage to the Conservatives in London.
- Some of the results include dramatic gains for independents. However, independent groups are often built around defectors from the big two parties and from the LibDems; it would be very interesting to do an analysis of the origins of the most successful independent groups in this election.
> @GarethoftheVale2 said: > > @dyedwoolie said: > > Seats to watch at a GE in the NE might include Darlington, Bishop Auckland, Stockton south, Sedgefield, Tynemouth, the likes of Blaydon if the cancer spreads....... > > I can't see Tynenouth or Blaydon going as they are more in the orbit of Newcastle. > > Lab's most at risk seats in the NE are: > > Bishop Auckland > Stockton S > Darlington > Hartlepool > Sedgefield > Durham NW > Stockton N > Redcar > Blyth Valley > Sunderland C > > All these saw swings away from Lab last election (except Stockton S which saw a big swing to Labour and Hartlepool which saw a small swing to Labour)
Blyth Valley will stay solidly Labour whilst lexiter Ronnie Campbell is in charge there.
> @DavidL said: > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > The ratio of councillors lost to councils reporting is deterioating for the Tories. We are almost certainly looking in excess of 1000 now, more like 1,200. > > > > > > > > That's a very bad result by any measure. > > > > The Conservatives have done relatively better in the more urban northern councils that tended to report results earlier. The more rural councils, which report later, have been carnage for them. 1,200 losses might be an underestimate. > > Yeah, that's the way I'm seeing it. Also in the more urban councils they had very little to actually lose. In the Shires there are lots of soft targets.
I've been tracking the % today and it's been pretty steady at 27% of Councillors lost where it started and is now.
> @Sean_F said: > > @Sunil_Prasannan said: > > 121/248 councils in. Tory losses on 494. 1000 losses looks on. > > > > Labour losses look just like a flesh-wound by comparison. > > 9 years into this government, Labour should be making (hundreds of) gains, not losses.
Labour lost seats at the local elections of 1959, 1960 & 1961 despite having been in opposition since 1951. The Tories lost several hundred seats in May 1970 but did win the General Election a month later.
> @TheWhiteRabbit said: > > @DavidL said: > > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > > The ratio of councillors lost to councils reporting is deterioating for the Tories. We are almost certainly looking in excess of 1000 now, more like 1,200. > > > > > > > > > > > > That's a very bad result by any measure. > > > > > > The Conservatives have done relatively better in the more urban northern councils that tended to report results earlier. The more rural councils, which report later, have been carnage for them. 1,200 losses might be an underestimate. > > > > Yeah, that's the way I'm seeing it. Also in the more urban councils they had very little to actually lose. In the Shires there are lots of soft targets. > > I've been tracking the % today and it's been pretty steady at 27% of Councillors lost where it started and is now.
I agree the % is about the same. The point is that in most of the later councils there are more sitting Tories so the absolute number of councillors lost per council increases. They are down 655 in 149 councils, approximately 4.4 councillors per council. That rate of loss will increase even if the overall percentage of losses remains the same.
> @AlastairMeeks said: > The ratio of councillors lost to councils reporting is deterioating for the Tories. We are almost certainly looking in excess of 1000 now, more like 1,200. > > > > That's a very bad result by any measure. > > The Conservatives have done relatively better in the more urban northern councils that tended to report results earlier. The more rural councils, which report later, have been carnage for them. 1,200 losses might be an underestimate.
I had 500/800 down as the 'expected' range so yes, over 1,000 is pretty bad. But is it any worse than Labour's results? I really didn't expect them to be losing seats.
> You're assuming that Farage won't take votes from Labour. You may be right. But I wonder how safe an assumption that is.
*
I'm sure he will take votes from Labour. Especially if I'm right about them offering Ref2 at the GE if it comes before Brexit. Impact on seats is incredibly difficult (!) to model. I'm not even trying at this point, but I suppose some of the more courageous posters on here are.
This was my canvassing report on the 13th of April,
<i>I've had a pretty bracing canvassing experience today, here's my observations
1) The government is as popular you'd expect a government soon to be celebrating its 9th birthday.
2) There's anger at not delivering Brexit.
3) There's anger at not stopping Brexit.
4) A lot of 2 and 3 are united in frustration in that Brexit is occupying in the entire bandwidth of the government and they are taking their eye off the ball on public services. There's more anger in this than 2 and 3.
5) Local and European elections are a free hit at expressing your frustration at the Tories and which will not see us getting PM Corbyn. A few expressed the view that it was better for the country if Farage and the Kipper loons were sent to Bruxelles than stay here and cause more damage.
6) Corbyn isn't seen as a PM in waiting.
7) Nor is Boris and most of the cabinet. Met a teacher who is still pissed off at Gove and won't vote Tory whilst Gove is an MP.
7) Mrs May might be the only reason the Tory share is holding up. A lot of admiration for her and dealing with the hospital pass of Brexit.
8) A lot of uncomplimentary comments towards Andrea Jenkyns. At the next GE I'd expect a larger swing against the ERG than regular Tories.
9) I also think independents will do better than expected in the locals, a lot of voters think they are TIG/CUK.
If the Tories are going to have an ok nights in the locals they are going to need Labour's lazy voters to stay at home. I think the TPA have spent a lot of money on facebook adverts pointing out the councillors/council staff who earn more than the PM, that was mentioned a few times. Don't be shocked at some surprise gains by the Tories.
But I'm expecting the Tories to do very badly in the European elections, dockside hooker when the fleet is in territory.</i>
_________
Here endeth my report from the 13th of April.
My canvassing skills are awesome, I could get a Tory elected in Bootle.
> @Peter_the_Punter said: > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > The ratio of councillors lost to councils reporting is deterioating for the Tories. We are almost certainly looking in excess of 1000 now, more like 1,200. > > > > > > > > That's a very bad result by any measure. > > > > The Conservatives have done relatively better in the more urban northern councils that tended to report results earlier. The more rural councils, which report later, have been carnage for them. 1,200 losses might be an underestimate. > > I had 500/800 down as the 'expected' range so yes, over 1,000 is pretty bad. But is it any worse than Labour's results? I really didn't expect them to be losing seats.
Labour will probably end up around even at the end of the night ?
Surely not all the losses of the Tories can be to Green, Ind and Lib Dem ?
> The ratio of councillors lost to councils reporting is deterioating for the Tories. We are almost certainly looking in excess of 1000 now, more like 1,200.
>
>
>
> That's a very bad result by any measure.
>
> The Conservatives have done relatively better in the more urban northern councils that tended to report results earlier. The more rural councils, which report later, have been carnage for them. 1,200 losses might be an underestimate.
I had 500/800 down as the 'expected' range so yes, over 1,000 is pretty bad. But is it any worse than Labour's results? I really didn't expect them to be losing seats.
Oh, Labour's results are appalling too by any objective measure.
Buy shares in the single issue parties for the EU elections.
> The ratio of councillors lost to councils reporting is deterioating for the Tories. We are almost certainly looking in excess of 1000 now, more like 1,200.
>
>
>
> That's a very bad result by any measure.
>
> The Conservatives have done relatively better in the more urban northern councils that tended to report results earlier. The more rural councils, which report later, have been carnage for them. 1,200 losses might be an underestimate.
I had 500/800 down as the 'expected' range so yes, over 1,000 is pretty bad. But is it any worse than Labour's results? I really didn't expect them to be losing seats.
Oh, Labour's results are appalling too by any objective measure.
Buy shares in the single issue parties for the EU elections.
> The ratio of councillors lost to councils reporting is deterioating for the Tories. We are almost certainly looking in excess of 1000 now, more like 1,200.
>
>
>
> That's a very bad result by any measure.
>
> The Conservatives have done relatively better in the more urban northern councils that tended to report results earlier. The more rural councils, which report later, have been carnage for them. 1,200 losses might be an underestimate.
I had 500/800 down as the 'expected' range so yes, over 1,000 is pretty bad. But is it any worse than Labour's results? I really didn't expect them to be losing seats.
Oh, Labour's results are appalling too by any objective measure.
Buy shares in the single issue parties for the EU elections.
> @TheScreamingEagles said: > You know what these local election results really mean don't you? > > A lot more areas of the country will now be bombarded with Lib Dem focus leaflets with 'interesting' bar charts.
> @Peter_the_Punter said: > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > The ratio of councillors lost to councils reporting is deterioating for the Tories. We are almost certainly looking in excess of 1000 now, more like 1,200. > > > > > > > > That's a very bad result by any measure. > > > > The Conservatives have done relatively better in the more urban northern councils that tended to report results earlier. The more rural councils, which report later, have been carnage for them. 1,200 losses might be an underestimate. > > I had 500/800 down as the 'expected' range so yes, over 1,000 is pretty bad. But is it any worse than Labour's results? I really didn't expect them to be losing seats.
I think they've lost just over 60 from the last 9 councils added to the BBC tally.if they lose 600 from the remaining 90 they'll be down over 1300.
Yes. I wonder whether, somehow, the Remain electorate will manage to coalesce around one of Lib Dem, Green or Change UK and force Labour down into third.
Even if the electorate only manage to whittle the three down to two that could be enough to push the Tories out of the top three.
> @OblitusSumMe said: > > @isam said: > > > Labour 6/4 for the Euros looks like £33 lost 😔 > > Yes. I wonder whether, somehow, the Remain electorate will manage to coalesce around one of Lib Dem, Green or Change UK and force Labour down into third. > > Even if the electorate only manage to whittle the three down to two that could be enough to push the Tories out of the top three.
Perhaps these results will cause the Lib Dems to break out of the pack.
> In any event, I think once Brexit happens (in name only probably), which now seems increasingly likely before October (particularly after last night and the expected carnage of 23rd May if that happens), then Farage's fox is largely shot, the Brexiteer Tories will get what most of them think they want, and the Grieveite Tories will probably just shrug their shoulders, be grateful we haven't had a No Deal Brexit, and get back to worrying about a Marxist getting into power.
*
Yes, that is a credible alternative to the scenario I am postulating.
And given it is less exciting then mine it is probably more likely.
Maybe - it’s not as though that hasn’t been done before both though pre Thatcher and post Major. Those predictions didn’t work out so well and not sure Lilico, who might be an admirable economist, is a good political pundit.
> @OblitusSumMe said: > > @isam said: > > > Labour 6/4 for the Euros looks like £33 lost 😔 > > Yes. I wonder whether, somehow, the Remain electorate will manage to coalesce around one of Lib Dem, Green or Change UK and force Labour down into third. > > Even if the electorate only manage to whittle the three down to two that could be enough to push the Tories out of the top three.
Perhaps Remain could coalesce around spoiled ballots ?
> @Sunil_Prasannan said: > Terrible for Labour and Tories. > > > > The only excuse with any currency with me is that different voters turn up when locals are held at the same time as a GE. > > > > But dismal. Anyone who says otherwise is either lying or doesn’t understand politics. > > Labour seat losses = 76 > Tory seat losses = 738 > > Labour councils lost = 3 > Tory councils lost = 26
> @tlg86 said: > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > > Bugger, bugger, John really doesn't deserve to lose. > > I didn't realise he was my uncle's councillor. I'm sure my uncle would have voted for him.
Comments
> > @Sean_F said:
> > Con hold Solihull (just).
>
> But, lose Mendip to NOC. For some reason, the Conservatives are performing terribly in Somerset.
Mogg and Fox
https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/independent-bookmakers-hit-hard-as-fobt-revenues-plummet-40-per-cent/378830
Paddy Power's estimate of a fall off in takings were accurate as you would expect but the likes of Ladbrokes, Hills and Corals aren't saying much yet. It's my experience the betting shops here in East Ham are much quieter since the FOBT limit came in and it's hard to see other betting opportunities taking up the slack.
> Not Corbyn
*
The wish being father to the thought?
> > @Sean_F said:
> > Con hold Solihull (just).
>
> But, lose Mendip to NOC. For some reason, the Conservatives are performing terribly in Somerset.
Tories are doing badly in the South; Labour are doing badly in the North. It’s protest vote politics. Of that long since Solihull had a LD MP so suspect they still have a strong base there.
> So despite all the noise an bluster, the Tories have 'won' on notional national vote share.
>
> Agree that this is shite for Labour.
It's desperately bad when the PM is being told to resign at her own party conference and the Opposition still can't come up on top.
FPTP is currently the only thing standing between Labour and oblivion.
> > @Sean_F said:
> > > @Sean_F said:
> > > Con hold Solihull (just).
> >
> > But, lose Mendip to NOC. For some reason, the Conservatives are performing terribly in Somerset.
>
> Tories are doing badly in the South; Labour are doing badly in the North. It’s protest vote politics. Of that long since Solihull had a LD MP so suspect they still have a strong base there.
The Tories are not doing badly everywhere in the South. There have been some very strong results, as well as bad ones.
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1124204103897440256
> > @AmpfieldAndy said:
> > > @Sean_F said:
> > > > @Sean_F said:
> > > > Con hold Solihull (just).
> > >
> > > But, lose Mendip to NOC. For some reason, the Conservatives are performing terribly in Somerset.
> >
> > Tories are doing badly in the South; Labour are doing badly in the North. It’s protest vote politics. Of that long since Solihull had a LD MP so suspect they still have a strong base there.
>
> The Tories are not doing badly everywhere in the South. There have been some very strong results, as well as bad ones.
However the east is pretty shocking
> But if they had really put the coalition years behind them, shouldn't they be back to where they were in 2010?
>
> That projected share of 18% is actually identical with the one from 2017, and is 9 points below the one from 2010:
> https://electionsetc.com/2019/05/01/calculating-the-local-elections-projected-national-share-pns-and-projected-house-of-commons-in-2019/
*
True. But I think we are seeing the return of the LDs as an electoral force. And in the GE, hopefully they will get back to doing the thing they do best - what they exist for really - which is taking seats off the Tories in affluent and/or quirky parts of the country where they have a tradition and in the process enabling Labour to win outright on a modest vote share.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/ceeqy0e9894t/england-local-elections-2019
> > @AmpfieldAndy said:
> > > @Sean_F said:
> > > > @Sean_F said:
> > > > Con hold Solihull (just).
> > >
> > > But, lose Mendip to NOC. For some reason, the Conservatives are performing terribly in Somerset.
> >
> > Tories are doing badly in the South; Labour are doing badly in the North. It’s protest vote politics. Of that long since Solihull had a LD MP so suspect they still have a strong base there.
>
> The Tories are not doing badly everywhere in the South. There have been some very strong results, as well as bad ones.
Labour has some good results in the north too, Trafford (I think) and my area Bassetlaw for instance.
> > @TheValiant said:
>
> > I'm not wrong in thinking that (for the Blues at least) its neither as bad as the possible 1,000 councillor losses a few were predicting, but not as good as the 350 losses a few on here thought they might keep it to.
>
> >
>
> > Great night for the Lib Dems/Greens. Pretty poor for Labour.
>
> > I really don't know what message this is telling us about Brexit.
>
> > I think if Labour and the Conservatives don't sort something soon they are going to both start being seriously harmed. Doubt Labour under Corbyn have what it takes. Doubt the Conservatives under May have either.
>
>
>
> I think it will round about 1,000 by the end of the day...
>
> Oh yeah. Looking that way now isn't it?
Do we think Mrs May is going to break the magic 1,000 barrier then? It woud be nowhere near a record but an outstanding performance considering the unpopularity of the LOTO and the divisions in Labour.
That's a very bad result by any measure.
> The header is spot on. As a Labour supporter it pains me to say it but what a great day for the Lib Dems. They are surely the big story here. All the chatter about Vince Cable not cutting through as leader, being 'invisible' and 'low energy' etc etc, turns out to be bollox. These results are a triumph for his party and a vindication of the man. He can go out on a high now, assuming he does not change his mind about standing down this summer, and I'm pleased about that. As the only serious politician in the Western Hemisphere to predict the Great Financial Crash of 2008, he deserves no less.
But it is a protest and Ant-establshment vote - support for them has always been 'easy come - easy go' - very little depth or core vote as such.
Or is everyone waiting for the euro elections?
> The ratio of councillors lost to councils reporting is deterioating for the Tories. We are almost certainly looking in excess of 1000 now, more like 1,200.
>
>
>
> That's a very bad result by any measure.
>
> The Conservatives have done relatively better in the more urban northern councils that tended to report results earlier. The more rural councils, which report later, have been carnage for them. 1,200 losses might be an underestimate.
Yeah, that's the way I'm seeing it. Also in the more urban councils they had very little to actually lose. In the Shires there are lots of soft targets.
>
He will give a referendum for sure to get some kind of confidence deal that gets him in Number 10
*
If he does, and it goes for Sindy, and hence Westminster loses Scottish representation, I can envisage that Corbyn Labour government being the last Labour government we ever see. After that it will be years and years of right and centre right. So they will need to make it count.
> Seats to watch at a GE in the NE might include Darlington, Bishop Auckland, Stockton south, Sedgefield, Tynemouth, the likes of Blaydon if the cancer spreads.......
I can't see Tynenouth or Blaydon going as they are more in the orbit of Newcastle.
Lab's most at risk seats in the NE are:
Bishop Auckland
Stockton S
Darlington
Hartlepool
Sedgefield
Durham NW
Stockton N
Redcar
Blyth Valley
Sunderland C
All these saw swings away from Lab last election (except Stockton S which saw a big swing to Labour and Hartlepool which saw a small swing to Labour)
- The National Equivalent Vote share figures might be overstating the Conservative position. This is because it is calculated using the historic relationship between vote shares in the local elections being contested and the GE vote shares. However, that historic relationship is likely to be distorted by Brexit, which cuts across normal party geographic distributions. In particular I suspect that extrapolating vote changes in rural and smaller town results to London might well underestimate the Brexit damage to the Conservatives in London.
- Some of the results include dramatic gains for independents. However, independent groups are often built around defectors from the big two parties and from the LibDems; it would be very interesting to do an analysis of the origins of the most successful independent groups in this election.
https://twitter.com/Tony_Robinson/status/1124297214472400898
> > @dyedwoolie said:
> > Seats to watch at a GE in the NE might include Darlington, Bishop Auckland, Stockton south, Sedgefield, Tynemouth, the likes of Blaydon if the cancer spreads.......
>
> I can't see Tynenouth or Blaydon going as they are more in the orbit of Newcastle.
>
> Lab's most at risk seats in the NE are:
>
> Bishop Auckland
> Stockton S
> Darlington
> Hartlepool
> Sedgefield
> Durham NW
> Stockton N
> Redcar
> Blyth Valley
> Sunderland C
>
> All these saw swings away from Lab last election (except Stockton S which saw a big swing to Labour and Hartlepool which saw a small swing to Labour)
Blyth Valley will stay solidly Labour whilst lexiter Ronnie Campbell is in charge there.
https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/1124170818509049856
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > The ratio of councillors lost to councils reporting is deterioating for the Tories. We are almost certainly looking in excess of 1000 now, more like 1,200.
> >
> >
> >
> > That's a very bad result by any measure.
> >
> > The Conservatives have done relatively better in the more urban northern councils that tended to report results earlier. The more rural councils, which report later, have been carnage for them. 1,200 losses might be an underestimate.
>
> Yeah, that's the way I'm seeing it. Also in the more urban councils they had very little to actually lose. In the Shires there are lots of soft targets.
I've been tracking the % today and it's been pretty steady at 27% of Councillors lost where it started and is now.
> https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1124295562910584833
"Look, we may be shit but Labour are shit as well".
And that's all the Tory has going for it now?
A mess, like the country over Brexit really.
> Interesting charts.
> https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/1124170818509049856
Since most degrees awarded in the past 10 years or so would have barely been A levels in the 60s I'm not clear how significant that is.
> > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
> > 121/248 councils in. Tory losses on 494. 1000 losses looks on.
> >
> > Labour losses look just like a flesh-wound by comparison.
>
> 9 years into this government, Labour should be making (hundreds of) gains, not losses.
Labour lost seats at the local elections of 1959, 1960 & 1961 despite having been in opposition since 1951. The Tories lost several hundred seats in May 1970 but did win the General Election a month later.
> > @DavidL said:
> > > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > > The ratio of councillors lost to councils reporting is deterioating for the Tories. We are almost certainly looking in excess of 1000 now, more like 1,200.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > That's a very bad result by any measure.
> > >
> > > The Conservatives have done relatively better in the more urban northern councils that tended to report results earlier. The more rural councils, which report later, have been carnage for them. 1,200 losses might be an underestimate.
> >
> > Yeah, that's the way I'm seeing it. Also in the more urban councils they had very little to actually lose. In the Shires there are lots of soft targets.
>
> I've been tracking the % today and it's been pretty steady at 27% of Councillors lost where it started and is now.
I agree the % is about the same. The point is that in most of the later councils there are more sitting Tories so the absolute number of councillors lost per council increases. They are down 655 in 149 councils, approximately 4.4 councillors per council. That rate of loss will increase even if the overall percentage of losses remains the same.
> > @CarlottaVance said:
> > https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1124295562910584833
>
> "Look, we may be shit but Labour are shit as well".
>
> And that's all the Tory has going for it now?
It's more like; I've lost an arm and two legs, but they've lost a couple of feet.....
> The ratio of councillors lost to councils reporting is deterioating for the Tories. We are almost certainly looking in excess of 1000 now, more like 1,200.
>
>
>
> That's a very bad result by any measure.
>
> The Conservatives have done relatively better in the more urban northern councils that tended to report results earlier. The more rural councils, which report later, have been carnage for them. 1,200 losses might be an underestimate.
I had 500/800 down as the 'expected' range so yes, over 1,000 is pretty bad. But is it any worse than Labour's results? I really didn't expect them to be losing seats.
> LibDems hit 400 gains! OMG!
Independents up 307. Anti-politics rules ok.
> You're assuming that Farage won't take votes from Labour. You may be right. But I wonder how safe an assumption that is.
*
I'm sure he will take votes from Labour. Especially if I'm right about them offering Ref2 at the GE if it comes before Brexit. Impact on seats is incredibly difficult (!) to model. I'm not even trying at this point, but I suppose some of the more courageous posters on here are.
Ex Lab NEC member.
<i>I've had a pretty bracing canvassing experience today, here's my observations
1) The government is as popular you'd expect a government soon to be celebrating its 9th birthday.
2) There's anger at not delivering Brexit.
3) There's anger at not stopping Brexit.
4) A lot of 2 and 3 are united in frustration in that Brexit is occupying in the entire bandwidth of the government and they are taking their eye off the ball on public services. There's more anger in this than 2 and 3.
5) Local and European elections are a free hit at expressing your frustration at the Tories and which will not see us getting PM Corbyn. A few expressed the view that it was better for the country if Farage and the Kipper loons were sent to Bruxelles than stay here and cause more damage.
6) Corbyn isn't seen as a PM in waiting.
7) Nor is Boris and most of the cabinet. Met a teacher who is still pissed off at Gove and won't vote Tory whilst Gove is an MP.
7) Mrs May might be the only reason the Tory share is holding up. A lot of admiration for her and dealing with the hospital pass of Brexit.
8) A lot of uncomplimentary comments towards Andrea Jenkyns. At the next GE I'd expect a larger swing against the ERG than regular Tories.
9) I also think independents will do better than expected in the locals, a lot of voters think they are TIG/CUK.
If the Tories are going to have an ok nights in the locals they are going to need Labour's lazy voters to stay at home. I think the TPA have spent a lot of money on facebook adverts pointing out the councillors/council staff who earn more than the PM, that was mentioned a few times. Don't be shocked at some surprise gains by the Tories.
But I'm expecting the Tories to do very badly in the European elections, dockside hooker when the fleet is in territory.</i>
_________
Here endeth my report from the 13th of April.
My canvassing skills are awesome, I could get a Tory elected in Bootle.
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > The ratio of councillors lost to councils reporting is deterioating for the Tories. We are almost certainly looking in excess of 1000 now, more like 1,200.
> >
> >
> >
> > That's a very bad result by any measure.
> >
> > The Conservatives have done relatively better in the more urban northern councils that tended to report results earlier. The more rural councils, which report later, have been carnage for them. 1,200 losses might be an underestimate.
>
> I had 500/800 down as the 'expected' range so yes, over 1,000 is pretty bad. But is it any worse than Labour's results? I really didn't expect them to be losing seats.
Labour will probably end up around even at the end of the night ?
Surely not all the losses of the Tories can be to Green, Ind and Lib Dem ?
> > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
> > LibDems hit 400 gains! OMG!
>
> Independents up 307. Anti-politics rules ok.
Yes, but are they mostly Tory independents, or Labour independents?
Buy shares in the single issue parties for the EU elections.
Or as we still waiting.
> JohnO... Speak to us.. JohnO... https://twitter.com/bbcelection/status/1124301719804968960
>
>
>
> That's not his patch, he's up for election elsewhere, he'll message me the result once he knows.
I think it's already out:
https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/live-surrey-local-elections-results-16218838
See 13:27.
> These were interesting
>
> https://order-order.com/2019/05/03/curtice-not-remain-backlash/
>
> https://order-order.com/2019/05/03/labour-staffer-corbyn-poison-doorstep/
Do you ever worry that Guido makes Jeremy Kyle sound insightful?
A lot more areas of the country will now be bombarded with Lib Dem focus leaflets with 'interesting' bar charts.
A terrible night.
> You know what these local election results really mean don't you?
>
> A lot more areas of the country will now be bombarded with Lib Dem focus leaflets with 'interesting' bar charts.
Glad you like them!
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/05/03/nowadays-good-going-get-tories-party-really/
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > The ratio of councillors lost to councils reporting is deterioating for the Tories. We are almost certainly looking in excess of 1000 now, more like 1,200.
> >
> >
> >
> > That's a very bad result by any measure.
> >
> > The Conservatives have done relatively better in the more urban northern councils that tended to report results earlier. The more rural councils, which report later, have been carnage for them. 1,200 losses might be an underestimate.
>
> I had 500/800 down as the 'expected' range so yes, over 1,000 is pretty bad. But is it any worse than Labour's results? I really didn't expect them to be losing seats.
I think they've lost just over 60 from the last 9 councils added to the BBC tally.if they lose 600 from the remaining 90 they'll be down over 1300.
> Labour 6/4 for the Euros looks like £33 lost 😔
Yes. I wonder whether, somehow, the Remain electorate will manage to coalesce around one of Lib Dem, Green or Change UK and force Labour down into third.
Even if the electorate only manage to whittle the three down to two that could be enough to push the Tories out of the top three.
> Bugger, bugger, John really doesn't deserve to lose.
I didn't realise he was my uncle's councillor. I'm sure my uncle would have voted for him.
The only excuse with any currency with me is that different voters turn up when locals are held at the same time as a GE.
But dismal. Anyone who says otherwise is either lying or doesn’t understand politics.
> > @isam said:
>
> > Labour 6/4 for the Euros looks like £33 lost 😔
>
> Yes. I wonder whether, somehow, the Remain electorate will manage to coalesce around one of Lib Dem, Green or Change UK and force Labour down into third.
>
> Even if the electorate only manage to whittle the three down to two that could be enough to push the Tories out of the top three.
Perhaps these results will cause the Lib Dems to break out of the pack.
> In any event, I think once Brexit happens (in name only probably), which now seems increasingly likely before October (particularly after last night and the expected carnage of 23rd May if that happens), then Farage's fox is largely shot, the Brexiteer Tories will get what most of them think they want, and the Grieveite Tories will probably just shrug their shoulders, be grateful we haven't had a No Deal Brexit, and get back to worrying about a Marxist getting into power.
*
Yes, that is a credible alternative to the scenario I am postulating.
And given it is less exciting then mine it is probably more likely.
> Andrew Lilico declares the death of the Tory party.
>
> https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/05/03/nowadays-good-going-get-tories-party-really/
Nothing a competent leader, CoTE and a bit of Brexit couldn't cure.
> Andrew Lilico declares the death of the Tory party.
>
> https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/05/03/nowadays-good-going-get-tories-party-really/
Maybe - it’s not as though that hasn’t been done before both though pre Thatcher and post Major. Those predictions didn’t work out so well and not sure Lilico, who might be an admirable economist, is a good political pundit.
> > @isam said:
>
> > Labour 6/4 for the Euros looks like £33 lost 😔
>
> Yes. I wonder whether, somehow, the Remain electorate will manage to coalesce around one of Lib Dem, Green or Change UK and force Labour down into third.
>
> Even if the electorate only manage to whittle the three down to two that could be enough to push the Tories out of the top three.
Perhaps Remain could coalesce around spoiled ballots ?
Tory seat losses = 738
Labour councils lost = 3
Tory councils lost = 26
Labour aren't going to hold Sheffield Hallam at the next general election.
> My bold prediction.
>
> Labour aren't going to hold Sheffield Hallam at the next general election.
Don’t hold it now strictly speaking.
Bigger swings at the GE against the ERG mob?
> Tories have so far lost 98 councillors in Somerset! Moggtastic
Not quite that bad...my map clicking skills are somewhat wanting and North Devon is in, er, Devon it turns out...my bad
but still not great and more results to come
> Terrible for Labour and Tories.
>
>
>
> The only excuse with any currency with me is that different voters turn up when locals are held at the same time as a GE.
>
>
>
> But dismal. Anyone who says otherwise is either lying or doesn’t understand politics.
>
> Labour seat losses = 76
> Tory seat losses = 738
>
> Labour councils lost = 3
> Tory councils lost = 26
Cons losing 4.6 councillors per council.
On track to end up 1,100-1,200 down.
> Andrew Lilico declares the death of the Tory party.
>
> https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/05/03/nowadays-good-going-get-tories-party-really/
Damn. I was hoping it might actually happen.
> > @williamglenn said:
> > Andrew Lilico declares the death of the Tory party.
> >
> > https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/05/03/nowadays-good-going-get-tories-party-really/
>
> Maybe - it’s not as though that hasn’t been done before both though pre Thatcher and post Major. Those predictions didn’t work out so well and not sure Lilico, who might be an admirable economist, is a good political pundit.
He's good for the entertainment value.
https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1124305719686307841?s=21
https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1124306690092994560?s=21
> Cons on target for -1200.
>
> A terrible night.
>
>
Or a terrrrrrrrrrrrrrible night for the Tories [in a Canadian twang]
Suggests the LDs shouldnt get too excited.
The star of the show is about to enter, stage left...
#GetReady
> Very sad that JohnO has fallen. Top class chap.
Agreed. Still, at least he didn't lose to a LibDem!
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
>
> > Bugger, bugger, John really doesn't deserve to lose.
>
> I didn't realise he was my uncle's councillor. I'm sure my uncle would have voted for him.
John O deserves a better Party.