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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LDs – putting the coalition years behind them

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  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    > @nico67 said:
    > Amazing a party on a Stop Brexit message doing very well and the media desperate to couch this as a vote to get Brexit done .

    Indeed. They are swallowing the Labour and Tory spin
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    > @kjh said:
    > > @stodge said:
    > > Clearly a good night for the Lib Dems - a torrid one for the Tories and a disappointing one for Labour. But the other significant growth is the rise of 'Independents' - proportionately even more impressive than the Lib Dems - anyone know how these break down? I'm sure its not all 'Residents Association' (small 'c' Conservatives) - who else? Plays to the 'plague on both/ all your houses'.....
    > >
    > > As you say, "Independent" covers a multitude of sins. The days of the go-it-alone Independent are over - modern politics doesn't work that way. Instead, we've seen the rise of what I prefer to call micro-parties, groups coalescing around local identities and issues (mainly housing) which have a direct impact. The Oxted & Limpsfield Residents Group in Tandridge has been hugely successful and won more seats last night while there are a couple of village-based micro-parties in Guildford which may have won seats.
    > >
    > > These micro-parties are often well funded and utilise local-based social media as their main campaigning tool. They can get information out very quickly to large numbers of people within a concentrated area. It's an evolution of the LD "community politics" and is both political and apolitical at the same time - it functions as a political party but beyond the local so a supporter (as distinct from a member) of the Conservative, Labour or LD parties can support the micro-party locally while staying with their national party at Westminster elections.
    >
    > In Guildford we have two independent groups. It is all to do with the local plan and they are very anti the Conservative administration, but not because they are Conservatives, just because of the incompetence, arrogance and what appears to be some 'interesting' stuff re the local plan. One of the groups was formed by a mix of councillors from both the Tory and LD group. This group ranges in political views significantly, but are all agreed on what they think of the local plan.

    I saw at least one seat won by 'For Britain' - an off-shoot of UKIP - in Hartlepool, and there seems to have been a few called 'Veterans & People's Party' or similar up north etc. It seems veterans play well on the doostep.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    > @MikeSmithson said:

    > How the vote went in Moggsy own ward in NE Somerset

    > LD 67%

    > CON 28%

    > LAB 5%

    >

    > The turnout was 54%



    If that one wasn't a clear unambiguous anti-Brexit vote I don't know what is.

    https://twitter.com/LibDems/status/1123172643794874368
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    > @KentRising said:
    > Yeah, all those Sunderland voters suddenly want a second referendum do they? Laughable. I think it's more likely they want the first one respected.
    >

    The problem our politics has at the moment is with that word "all". Clearly many Remain voters, of which there were some in Sunderland, want another referendum, while Leave voters mostly do not. But we can't compromise by half having another referendum.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,888
    LibDems did well last night, congrats! I actually voted LD in two GEs, 2001 (Ilford N) and 2005 (Cambridge), plus Cambridge locals 2005-07, while I was working there.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,483
    edited May 2019
    Result in May's own backyard is 'interesting'. Windsor & Maidenhead Council Tories lost 15 of 38 councillors and the opposition has gone from 3 to 18; 9 LD (was1), 5 Rs Ass (was 2) and 4 Greens. (All new)
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    > @Nigel_Foremain said:
    > > @nico67 said:
    > > Amazing a party on a Stop Brexit message doing very well and the media desperate to couch this as a vote to get Brexit done .
    >
    > Indeed. They are swallowing the Labour and Tory spin

    Considering the main party positions are completely incoherent and the main pro Brexit party did not even stand, I suspect (or rather I hope) you are very much clutching at straws. I do not see the Euros confirming your claims.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,084
    > @dyedwoolie said:
    > Wow, clear late night horror for the blues! Minus 1000 looks on, LD plus 700?
    > Let's have Rees Mogg out of a seat please.
    > Crumb of comfort for the blues - it's not 1995. However I expect them to coalesce around Boris with the remainers fleeing to Change or the twitching zombie corpse of the LDs

    You guys always think the Lib Dems are dead... Pretty much since the party was founded it's been jokes on the "ex parrot" but in fact we are not only very much alive, but tentatively prospering...
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I see Ruth has blocked BoJo from turning up at the SCon conference.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    More idiocy from the commentators .

    Even in Leave areas you’d still find Remainers but somehow an increase in the Lib Dem vote there now negates their Stop Brexit message because how dare some voters in Sunderland actually vote to Stop Brexit .
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    > @Slackbladder said:
    > Looks like Labours tactic of trying to ride two horses on Brexit has been finally found out.

    That and also the party is focused on its internal struggles rather than on creating a convincing story to take to the electorate.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
    > LibDems did well last night, congrats! I actually voted LD in two GEs, 2001 (Ilford N) and 2005 (Cambridge), plus Cambridge locals 2005-07, while I was working there.

    Was Cambridge LD in 2005?
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    > @CD13 said:
    > A poor night for Labour in St Helens. I stuck to my strict political principles of voting for the best looking one who had two X chromosomes per cell, and wasn't a Green.
    >
    > She unseated the old Labour councillor who'd been in place for years - an ugly bastard with only one X chromosome.

    Er... Every human has more than two X chromosomes. Women have 46.

    It is also bigoted to vote for people based on genetics rather than on policies.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    > @Nigel_Foremain said:

    > > @nico67 said:

    > > Amazing a party on a Stop Brexit message doing very well and the media desperate to couch this as a vote to get Brexit done .

    >

    > Indeed. They are swallowing the Labour and Tory spin



    Considering the main party positions are completely incoherent and the main pro Brexit party did not even stand, I suspect (or rather I hope) you are very much clutching at straws. I do not see the Euros confirming your claims.

    Lib Dem speciality is campaigning on local issues - and the Tories and Labour understandably avoided Brexit like the plague. Yet now this is 'a vote for Remain'.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Bassetlaw count underway. Might be interesting one, as the archetypal Northern leave seat where 'Brexit means Brexit' should be a factor if Northern MPs are to be believed.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,193
    > @AndyJS said:
    > > @kamski said:
    > > This election result doesn't really change my take on labour's prospects.
    > >
    > > This is all anecdotal (but might represent a significant chunk of 2017 Labour voters), but I wasn't surprised by Labour doing better than expected in 2017 because I knew loads of people who were very enthusiastic about Corbyn. They were often people who hadn't voted before/for a long time and I could imagine were difficult for pollsters to capture. Some were motivated to get back on the electoral roll because of the 2016 referendum, all seemed to be enthusiastic about Corbyn's honesty, integrity, principles and lack of spin, nearly all were strongly anti-brexit.
    > >
    > > They seem (going by social media posts and conversations) to be very anti-Corbyn now and are not voting Labour and won't in a general election (maybe a commitment to a 2nd referendum would bring some back, but it might be too late now). Some (eg my mum, who's 79) joined Labour because of Corbyn, and have now left Labour because of Corbyn.
    > >
    > > It's not just that they are disappointed with Labour's Brexit policy (or lack of it), it's also that Corbyn is seen as having been hypocritical and dishonest over the biggest issue that he has influence over, and so his personal appeal of integrity etc has been trashed. Additionally, because of this (I'm speculating here), people who might have been willing to give him the benefit of the doubt over anti-semitism now don't.
    > >
    > > Long story short: 2 years ago my timeline was full of very enthusiastic Corbyn supporters, now mostly anti. If Corbyn is leader at the next general election I think Labour will do badly, probably worse than most people seem to expect at the moment. Their only chance is if the Conservatives do even worse (which is always possible).
    >
    > Corbyn has been a Euro-sceptic for his entire political career. If people couldn't be bothered to find that out, that's their mistake. They shouldn't be disappointed by it.

    and yet they are.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    > @Cicero said:
    > > @dyedwoolie said:
    > > Wow, clear late night horror for the blues! Minus 1000 looks on, LD plus 700?
    > > Let's have Rees Mogg out of a seat please.
    > > Crumb of comfort for the blues - it's not 1995. However I expect them to coalesce around Boris with the remainers fleeing to Change or the twitching zombie corpse of the LDs
    >
    > You guys always think the Lib Dems are dead... Pretty much since the party was founded it's been jokes on the "ex parrot" but in fact we are not only very much alive, but tentatively prospering...

    Would make a great party slogan: 'The Lib Dems - tentatively prospering here'!
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    > @Richard_Tyndall said:
    > > @Nigel_Foremain said:
    > > > @nico67 said:
    > > > Amazing a party on a Stop Brexit message doing very well and the media desperate to couch this as a vote to get Brexit done .
    > >
    > > Indeed. They are swallowing the Labour and Tory spin
    >
    > Considering the main party positions are completely incoherent and the main pro Brexit party did not even stand, I suspect (or rather I hope) you are very much clutching at straws. I do not see the Euros confirming your claims.

    If voters wanted to send a message for pro Brexit they could have voted UKIP. They didn’t and the only other party with a clear message the Lib Dems are doing well .

    The media would be spinning this differently if the Brexit Party were doing well .
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042
    > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
    > LibDems did well last night, congrats! I actually voted LD in two GEs, 2001 (Ilford N) and 2005 (Cambridge), plus Cambridge locals 2005-07, while I was working there.

    Brave of you to come out of the closet.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Local anonymous Twitter account (generally believed to be run by an unnamed councillor) is predicting Labour will win Chipping Norton.

    If true, that's a symbolic end to the Cameron era.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,775
    edited May 2019
    Streeter said:

    Proportionate change in seat numbers, currently:

    UKIP (Uber Leave) -32%
    Con (Hard Leave) -26%
    Lab (Soft Leave) -6%
    LD (Remain) +109%
    Green (Remain) +500%

    Message is very clear - the UK now wants to Remain.

    Not so convinced, even though I'd like to be as a remainer
    1. Low (though normal for locals) turnout. Most people not that fussed about politics and probably also not that strong opinions about Brexit, hard to say how they would vote or if they would vote in another referendum
    2. Remainers have clear choices to support - LD or Green both unequivocal in policy. Leavers not motivated to vote Labour (still on the fence and may pivot to referendum, who knows?), nor probably Conservative: pro-Brexit but making a right horlicks of delivering it. UKIP works for pro-Brexit but look like real extremists now, hard to see remotely decent non-racist leavers voting for them (but would probably vote for the, on the surface at least, less extreme BP)
    3. Also some local issues in some votes

    Opinion polls on EU better guide I think (and also heading in remain direction, though not conclusively so). EU elections also a better though very imperfect guide - there's a reasonable option for annoyed leavers to express their annoyance, BP.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    > @Brom said:
    > > @GIN1138 said:
    > > > @Scott_P said:
    > > > https://twitter.com/krishgm/status/1124239449112629248
    > >
    > > People are clearly protesting again Con and Lab... But should probably wait and see how the Brexit Party do in the EU elections before drawing too many conclusions about Brexit.
    >
    > Would agree. Those drawing entirely remain narratives from low turnout local elections in parts of the country will presumably report on a seismic shift in the nation's outlook in a mere 3 week period. It's more complicated than people like Krishnan think and Nandy is probably closest to the mark.

    I see tories got bashed in bath. Now obviously they have a lib dem mp and very remainy, but i was there a few weeks ago and a number of people i met were doing their nut over council proposal for some london style emission zone.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Vicky Ford MP on the verge of tears and head in her hands

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-england-essex-48146485/election-results-mp-vicky-ford-upset-as-tories-lose-council

    Perfect metaphor for Theresa May's Conservative Party...
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Suspect Rory running is more likely to result in being offered a top Cabinet job after the contest than actually winning, but you never know. Go for it Rory!

    The country is crying out for an Etonian and Oxford PPE PM. He's also too Remainy for the undead horde. I might as well announce I'm running for leader of the tories; we both have the same chance.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384
    > @Richard_Tyndall said:
    > > @Nigel_Foremain said:
    > > > @nico67 said:
    > > > Amazing a party on a Stop Brexit message doing very well and the media desperate to couch this as a vote to get Brexit done .
    > >
    > > Indeed. They are swallowing the Labour and Tory spin
    >
    > Considering the main party positions are completely incoherent and the main pro Brexit party did not even stand, I suspect (or rather I hope) you are very much clutching at straws. I do not see the Euros confirming your claims.

    We can all play games with numbers. Unequivocally anti-Brexit parties won about 20-25% of the vote, and will pick up 15-20% of the seats. That tells us nothing that opinion polls don't already tell us.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Ooh look what popped through my letterbox this morning


  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    > @CarlottaVance said:
    > > @Nigel_Foremain said:
    >
    > > > @nico67 said:
    >
    > > > Amazing a party on a Stop Brexit message doing very well and the media desperate to couch this as a vote to get Brexit done .
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Indeed. They are swallowing the Labour and Tory spin
    >
    >
    >
    > Considering the main party positions are completely incoherent and the main pro Brexit party did not even stand, I suspect (or rather I hope) you are very much clutching at straws. I do not see the Euros confirming your claims.
    >
    > Lib Dem speciality is campaigning on local issues - and the Tories and Labour understandably avoided Brexit like the plague. Yet now this is 'a vote for Remain'.

    Gotta remember as well that in many places the options were only: Con, Lab, Lib Dem and Green - how do you register a protest about Brexit and wanting to get it done when they are your only options, apart from spoiling your ballot? Wouldn't be surprised if the Lib Dems and Greens benefitted from simply not being the two main parties, despite their pro-Brexit stance (I bet a large chunk of voters don't even know what the Greens' stance is on Europe, seeing them as a one issue party).
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    > @Cicero said:
    > > @dyedwoolie said:
    > > Wow, clear late night horror for the blues! Minus 1000 looks on, LD plus 700?
    > > Let's have Rees Mogg out of a seat please.
    > > Crumb of comfort for the blues - it's not 1995. However I expect them to coalesce around Boris with the remainers fleeing to Change or the twitching zombie corpse of the LDs
    >
    > You guys always think the Lib Dems are dead... Pretty much since the party was founded it's been jokes on the "ex parrot" but in fact we are not only very much alive, but tentatively prospering...

    Yes your 11 MPs are simply framing the narrative for decades to come
    Once Change move into view you're done,
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    10.26 Corbyn being interviewed in Trafford: “We have won Trafford. We have swings to Labour in a number of boroughs and that gives us a basis on which we can win marginal seats… I’m looking for an election in which we can do that.”

    On the loss of Labour heartlands, he said: “I’m very sorry we lost them. We’ll win them back.”

    Why did Labour lose in those areas? “Some of them were local factors, and some of them were people disagreeing with both parties on attitudes towards the EU.”

    If you’re expecting these local election results to change Labour’s Brexit policy, think again.


    LabourList
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042
    BBC:

    'Green Party co-leader Jonathan Bartley says it has been "the biggest election night in our history".

    The party has gained 42 councillors so far.

    "Voters see that we need a new kind of politics, one that recognises the huge imperative of acting on climate change, but also the social emergency that is creating misery and suffering in communities across the country," Mr Bartley says.

    He adds that Brexit has also played "a significant role" in the elections, with the Greens "standing up for the UK's membership of the European Union".'
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2019
    > @GIN1138 said:
    > Vicky Ford MP on the verge of tears and head in her hands
    >
    > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-england-essex-48146485/election-results-mp-vicky-ford-upset-as-tories-lose-council
    >
    > Perfect metaphor for Theresa May's Conservative Party...

    It's only a council, it's not the end of the world. Let's keep a sense of proportion.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384
    > @CarlottaVance said:
    > Proportionate change in seat numbers, currently:
    >
    > UKIP (Uber Leave) -32%
    > Con (Hard Leave) -26%
    > Lab (Soft Leave) -6%
    > LD (Remain) +109%
    > Green (Remain) +500%
    >
    > Message is very clear - the UK now wants to Remain.
    >
    > You don't win elections on percentage changes - you win them on won seats.
    >
    > How does your calculation look if you measure it that way?

    It looks very different.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,888
    AndyJS said:

    > @Sunil_Prasannan said:

    > LibDems did well last night, congrats! I actually voted LD in two GEs, 2001 (Ilford N) and 2005 (Cambridge), plus Cambridge locals 2005-07, while I was working there.



    Was Cambridge LD in 2005?

    I think MP was Labour, and LDs gained it in 2005.

  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,206
    > @Streeter said:
    > Proportionate change in seat numbers, currently:
    >
    > UKIP (Uber Leave) -32%
    > Con (Hard Leave) -26%
    > Lab (Soft Leave) -6%
    > LD (Remain) +109%
    > Green (Remain) +500%
    >
    > Message is very clear - the UK now wants to Remain.

    You've got that back to front.

    Lots of seats with no UKIP candidate, and they've gone fairly mental anyway, plus their councilors are often useless and tend not to be re-elected.
    Tory vote has collapsed because they are meant to be running the country, and won't implement Brexit. They are not for Soft Brexit - they are for incompetence and can kicking.
    Labour vote has collapsed in leave voting areas, because they are too keen on remaining, and in remain areas because they are too keen on leaving.
    LD vote has held up because they are the only lot that have actual stuck to their principles and done what they said they would do.

    It's not that the country has become more remainy - it's simply that leavers can't trust any of the supposedly leave parties to get on and do it. I spoiled my ballot yesterday, for the first time ever, because I couldn't bring myself to endorse T May, and there were no other even remotely leavey options - I can't believe I was alone.

    Note also that independents have done very well - had I been offered one, I would have voted for them almost regardless of stated policies (if any) - I would suggest in many ways they are a proxy for the (non running) Brexiteers.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,007
    > @isam said:
    > Ooh look what popped through my letterbox this morning

    Their canvassing database is a bit raggy if it doesn't have you down as a sure thing.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    What this election also proves is that no matter how bad a party's fortunes are... There is ALWAYS scope for recovery in time.

    In 2015 the Lib-Dems looked dead and buried - But here they are back in business in local government once again.

    It's taken four years but welcome back to the game Liberal Demorcrats.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    a ward somewhere in West Suffolk

    Lab 228
    Ind 225
    Con 225
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    > @AndyJS said:
    > > @GIN1138 said:
    > > Vicky Ford MP on the verge of tears and head in her hands
    > >
    > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-england-essex-48146485/election-results-mp-vicky-ford-upset-as-tories-lose-council
    > >
    > > Perfect metaphor for Theresa May's Conservative Party...
    >
    > It's only a council, it's not the end of the world. Let's keep a sense of proportion.

    I was thinking more of the image of the MP with head on her hands and fighting back tears... Instantly takes you back to the "dark days" of the 90s for the Tories.
  • XtrainXtrain Posts: 341
    Alistair said:

    I see Ruth has blocked BoJo from turning up at the SCon conference.

    Can she do that?
    Boris needs to turn up if he wants to be PM.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I really don't think there's any way to interpret these results as anything other than Remainers' revenge. Now you might argue that an effective pro-Brexit party would also have done well (UKIP, I note though, are also down on the seat count), but that's pure speculation for now.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,007
    > @Alistair said:
    > I see Ruth has blocked BoJo from turning up at the SCon conference.

    Ross Thomson will be greetin'. I'm sure he was dying to do his hand maiden act to another triumphant Boris entrance on his home turf.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    > @AndyJS said:
    > LD +302
    > Con -433
    > Lab -85
    >
    > https://election.news.sky.com/england-local-council-elections-26

    To put the results so far in context, based on the standard 4 year cycle which approximates to the seats now being contested, the LDs started off with 1846 councillors defending these seats in 2011, were down to 1,098 after the 2011 elections and were reduced to 658 after 2015.

    The results are consistent with the very modest LD recovery since 2015 in the opinion polls, with the changes in seats mainly attributable to the meltdown of from their 2015 opinion poll levels.

    The thread header of "putting the coalition years behind them" therefore reeks of wishful thinking even if the LDs double their gains so far. Are they going to end up with anything close to 1846 seats at a time of Tory meltdown? No.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    edited May 2019
    > @GIN1138 said:
    > What this election also proves is that no matter how bad a party's fortunes are... There is ALWAYS scope for recovery in time.
    >
    > In 2015 the Lib-Dems looked dead and buried - But here they are back in business in local government once again.
    >
    > It's taken four years but welcome back to the game Liberal Demorcrats.

    Perhaps the secret to success is have an invisible leader then nobody hates you.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    local Labour briefing they have lost between 4 and 8 seats in Sheffield
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    I really don't think there's any way to interpret these results as anything other than Remainers' revenge.

    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/1124245748936318978
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > I really don't think there's any way to interpret these results as anything other than Remainers' revenge. Now you might argue that an effective pro-Brexit party would also have done well (UKIP, I note though, are also down on the seat count), but that's pure speculation for now.

    We'll see Lib-Dems and Greens 1st and 2nd in the EU elections then? :D
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,168
    > @nico67 said:
    > > @Richard_Tyndall said:
    > > > @Nigel_Foremain said:
    > > > > @nico67 said:
    > > > > Amazing a party on a Stop Brexit message doing very well and the media desperate to couch this as a vote to get Brexit done .
    > > >
    > > > Indeed. They are swallowing the Labour and Tory spin
    > >
    > > Considering the main party positions are completely incoherent and the main pro Brexit party did not even stand, I suspect (or rather I hope) you are very much clutching at straws. I do not see the Euros confirming your claims.
    >
    > If voters wanted to send a message for pro Brexit they could have voted UKIP. They didn’t and the only other party with a clear message the Lib Dems are doing well .
    >
    > The media would be spinning this differently if the Brexit Party were doing well .

    A lot of Brexiteers stayed at home or even spoiled their ballots with no Brexit Party candidate in most wards and the LDs were the default option for those dissatisfied with the Tories or Labour.


    Come the European elections Brexiteers will be out in force to vote for the Brexit Party, that will give a clearer indication of the strength of Remain and Leave feeling (especially as even some Leavers will have voted LD to mend the potholes, that does not mean they want to stay in the EU)
  • XtrainXtrain Posts: 341
    > @Theuniondivvie said:
    > > @isam said:
    > > Ooh look what popped through my letterbox this morning
    >
    > Their canvassing database is a bit raggy if it doesn't have you down as a sure thing.

    Nobody likes to be taken for granted!
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    GIN1138 said:

    Vicky Ford MP on the verge of tears and head in her hands



    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-england-essex-48146485/election-results-mp-vicky-ford-upset-as-tories-lose-council



    Perfect metaphor for Theresa May's Conservative Party...

    I was rock hard watching that.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,913
    I suspect that most of the "hot takes" about what these local elections mean, are going to look quite silly in a few weeks time, if the European Parliament elections take place.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Initial thought - if we have brexited before the next GE, Tories will be largest party
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    I really don't think there's any way to interpret these results as anything other than Remainers' revenge.

    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/1124245748936318978
    Sure they can. And people can vote Labour and Conservatives for other reasons too.

    But if people are not voting for those two parties because they are disaffected over their Brexit stance, and people are voting Lib Dem and Greens and are not disaffected over their Brexit stance, clearly an out-and-proud pro-Remain position is less of a drawback.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,168
    edited May 2019
    > @GIN1138 said:
    > > @AndyJS said:
    > > > @GIN1138 said:
    > > > Vicky Ford MP on the verge of tears and head in her hands
    > > >
    > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-england-essex-48146485/election-results-mp-vicky-ford-upset-as-tories-lose-council
    > > >
    > > > Perfect metaphor for Theresa May's Conservative Party...
    > >
    > > It's only a council, it's not the end of the world. Let's keep a sense of proportion.
    >
    > I was thinking more of the image of the MP with head on her hands and fighting back tears... Instantly takes you back to the "dark days" of the 90s for the Tories.

    In 1995 Blair gained 1,807 council seats, so far Corbyn has lost 79 council seats on the same electoral cycle


    The only way this is the 90s is the LDs are taking some Tory seats, from a Labour perspective it has been a poor set of results so far
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    as predicted last night...


    "Jeremy Corbyn has arrived in Trafford"
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    > @GIN1138 said:
    > > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > > I really don't think there's any way to interpret these results as anything other than Remainers' revenge. Now you might argue that an effective pro-Brexit party would also have done well (UKIP, I note though, are also down on the seat count), but that's pure speculation for now.
    >
    > We'll see Lib-Dems and Greens 1st and 2nd in the EU elections then? :D

    2nd and 1st!
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    I feel a surge of new hope today. This county is crying out for a centrist pro-Remain party and not one tarnished and incompetent like the Tiggers.

    Once the LibDems have their new leader, assuming it's someone even half-competent, they will be a formidable force once more.

    This is a big remain backlash which the msn are having considerable trouble reconciling.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384
    > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > I really don't think there's any way to interpret these results as anything other than Remainers' revenge.
    >
    > https://twitter.com/election_data/status/1124245748936318978
    >
    >
    >
    > Sure they can. And people can vote Labour and Conservatives for other reasons too.
    >
    > But if people are not voting for those two parties because they are disaffected over their Brexit stance, and people are voting Lib Dem and Greens and are not disaffected over their Brexit stance, clearly an out-and-proud pro-Remain position is less of a drawback.

    Though even if you combine the Lib Dem and Green votes and seat totals, they are firmly in third place.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    edited May 2019
    Difficult to see local election results as a pro - Remain vote rather than a protest vote given the polling for the Euro elections. People don’t vote for divided parties.

    What Corbyn showed in 2017 however was that Brexit wasn’t going to determine how people voted in a GE. That would be on the usual issues. Brexit needs to be done and dusted before the next General Election.
  • JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > I really don't think there's any way to interpret these results as anything other than Remainers' revenge. Now you might argue that an effective pro-Brexit party would also have done well (UKIP, I note though, are also down on the seat count), but that's pure speculation for now.

    And yet i voted LD as the only likely party to beat the tories, because the tories have been so crap over Brexit and in fact just monumentally crap in general.

    I will not be voting LD in the Euros. May I respectfully suggest that the European elections may be a better guide to people views on, er, Europe. If you were to interpret my protest vote against the tories yesterday as a pro Remain one, you would be wholly incorrect.

    LDs are 2nd to the tories in most shire seats, so they get the most protest votes. Simple as that
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,483
    > @CarlottaVance said:
    > Thread:
    >
    > https://twitter.com/election_data/status/1124235356247863296
    >
    >
    >
    > https://twitter.com/election_data/status/1124237877888655360

    Methodism (and Trade Union-ism) vs Marx. When they work together, it's fine; when they don't .........
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    I really don't think there's any way to interpret these results as anything other than Remainers' revenge. Now you might argue that an effective pro-Brexit party would also have done well (UKIP, I note though, are also down on the seat count), but that's pure speculation for now.

    In local elections I vote for the Residents Association without any idea of their view on the EU and wouldn’t mind at all if the Lib Dem’s ran my local council
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    > @HYUFD said:
    > > @GIN1138 said:
    > > > @AndyJS said:
    > > > > @GIN1138 said:
    > > > > Vicky Ford MP on the verge of tears and head in her hands
    > > > >
    > > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-england-essex-48146485/election-results-mp-vicky-ford-upset-as-tories-lose-council
    > > > >
    > > > > Perfect metaphor for Theresa May's Conservative Party...
    > > >
    > > > It's only a council, it's not the end of the world. Let's keep a sense of proportion.
    > >
    > > I was thinking more of the image of the MP with head on her hands and fighting back tears... Instantly takes you back to the "dark days" of the 90s for the Tories.
    >
    > In 1995 Blair gained 1,807 council seats, so far Corbyn has lost 79 council seats on the same electoral cycle
    >
    >
    > The only way this is the 90s is the LDs are taking some Tory seats, from a Labour perspective it has been a poor set of results so far
    >

    History never repeats exactly... But you can see the Tories are currently having a terrible time of it... Things have been going from bad to worse under May and Hammond ever since they took over in 2016.

    Maybe this time instead of Blair and Labour the threat will be from Farage and Brexit Party? ;)
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    > @Mysticrose said:
    > I feel a surge of new hope today. This county is crying out for a centrist pro-Remain party and not one tarnished and incompetent like the Tiggers.
    >
    > Once the LibDems have their new leader, assuming it's someone even half-competent, they will be a formidable force once more.
    >
    > This is a big remain backlash which the msn are having considerable trouble reconciling.

    Bless
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    > @isam said:
    > I really don't think there's any way to interpret these results as anything other than Remainers' revenge. Now you might argue that an effective pro-Brexit party would also have done well (UKIP, I note though, are also down on the seat count), but that's pure speculation for now.
    >
    > In local elections I vote for the Residents Association without any idea of their view on the EU and wouldn’t mind at all if the Lib Dem’s ran my local council

    Similarly, I gave the Greens two of my three votes yesterday even though I'm voting Brexit Party on the 23rd. They ran a very good local campaign and one of their candidates is a good lad who volunteers for the RNLI. I haven't become a Remainer.

    Let's see what happens in a couple of weeks.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    > @AlastairMeeks said:

    > I really don't think there's any way to interpret these results as anything other than Remainers' revenge. Now you might argue that an effective pro-Brexit party would also have done well (UKIP, I note though, are also down on the seat count), but that's pure speculation for now.



    And yet i voted LD as the only likely party to beat the tories, because the tories have been so crap over Brexit and in fact just monumentally crap in general.



    I will not be voting LD in the Euros. May I respectfully suggest that the European elections may be a better guide to people views on, er, Europe. If you were to interpret my protest vote against the tories yesterday as a pro Remain one, you would be wholly incorrect.



    LDs are 2nd to the tories in most shire seats, so they get the most protest votes. Simple as that

    I seriously considered voting Lib Dem - I even told the candidate I'd vote for him (I feel a bit bad now) - but then I saw the PEB for the Lib Dems and thought about what would happen the day after the vote and thought "I can't vote for them."
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    > @isam said:

    > Ooh look what popped through my letterbox this morning



    Their canvassing database is a bit raggy if it doesn't have you down as a sure thing.

    Wouldn’t they think I might vote UKIP?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Remember, a sizeable number of Lib Dems voted for Brexit:

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/06/27/how-britain-voted
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,872
    > @FrancisUrquhart said:
    > New International Development Secretary Rory Stewart has said he intends to stand for the Conservative leadership after Theresa May steps down.
    >
    > Given he gets overlooked time and time again for a big job, supposed the only way to get one is via this route.

    That almost makes me want to join the party. Almost.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    > @isam said:
    > I really don't think there's any way to interpret these results as anything other than Remainers' revenge. Now you might argue that an effective pro-Brexit party would also have done well (UKIP, I note though, are also down on the seat count), but that's pure speculation for now.
    >
    > In local elections I vote for the Residents Association without any idea of their view on the EU and wouldn’t mind at all if the Lib Dem’s ran my local council

    Of course, but the ebb and flow of Local election results does largely reflect the national polls.

    Clearly the LDs are electable again, as are the Greens.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042
    > @isam said:
    > I really don't think there's any way to interpret these results as anything other than Remainers' revenge. Now you might argue that an effective pro-Brexit party would also have done well (UKIP, I note though, are also down on the seat count), but that's pure speculation for now.
    >
    > In local elections I vote for the Residents Association without any idea of their view on the EU and wouldn’t mind at all if the Lib Dem’s ran my local council

    RA: Hitler youth with hedge clippers
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Scott_P said:
    As it stands, as per the last official such question, the British public wants Brexit.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,888

    > @Sunil_Prasannan said:

    > LibDems did well last night, congrats! I actually voted LD in two GEs, 2001 (Ilford N) and 2005 (Cambridge), plus Cambridge locals 2005-07, while I was working there.



    Brave of you to come out of the closet.

    Oh, I mentioned it on PB, albeit some years ago! Did you know I voted UKIP at the Euros in 2014? My only flirtation with the Purples!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    > @isam said:

    > I really don't think there's any way to interpret these results as anything other than Remainers' revenge. Now you might argue that an effective pro-Brexit party would also have done well (UKIP, I note though, are also down on the seat count), but that's pure speculation for now.

    >

    > In local elections I vote for the Residents Association without any idea of their view on the EU and wouldn’t mind at all if the Lib Dem’s ran my local council



    RA: Hitler youth with hedge clippers

    Look at their filthy literature!


  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Easily addressed. Labour Party members/supporters who want Brexit are either:

    1) rich enough such that Brexit is an ideological project for them (eg Milne et al); or
    2) not well educated enough to understand Brexit (eg. the bbcqt folk).
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,007
    > @isam said:
    > > @isam said:
    >
    > > Ooh look what popped through my letterbox this morning
    >
    >
    >
    > Their canvassing database is a bit raggy if it doesn't have you down as a sure thing.
    >
    > Wouldn’t they think I might vote UKIP?

    Oh, I thought you'd joined BP?
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    AndyJS said:

    > @GIN1138 said:

    > Vicky Ford MP on the verge of tears and head in her hands

    >

    > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-england-essex-48146485/election-results-mp-vicky-ford-upset-as-tories-lose-council

    >

    > Perfect metaphor for Theresa May's Conservative Party...



    It's only a council, it's not the end of the world. Let's keep a sense of proportion.

    The Lib Dems and the Alliance ran Chelmsford for 20 years from 1983 to 2003 with a gap of only four years. It’s been Tory for a while but given whole council elections and a unpopular Tory government it was always going to revert back one day.

    Didn’t get the LDs into national government then.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    > @AndreaParma_82 said:
    > https://twitter.com/JohnMannMP/status/1124247290661752832

    eh? first results look similar to the national picture
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042
    > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
    > > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
    >
    > > LibDems did well last night, congrats! I actually voted LD in two GEs, 2001 (Ilford N) and 2005 (Cambridge), plus Cambridge locals 2005-07, while I was working there.
    >
    >
    >
    > Brave of you to come out of the closet.
    >
    > Oh, I mentioned it on PB, albeit some years ago! Did you know I voted UKIP at the Euros in 2014? My only flirtation with the Purples!

    So it is a toss-up between Brexit Party and ChUK for you this year?
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    > @Alistair said:
    > I see Ruth has blocked BoJo from turning up at the SCon conference.

    Can't blame her......
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    > @DavidL said:
    > > @FrancisUrquhart said:
    > > New International Development Secretary Rory Stewart has said he intends to stand for the Conservative leadership after Theresa May steps down.
    > >
    > > Given he gets overlooked time and time again for a big job, supposed the only way to get one is via this route.
    >
    > That almost makes me want to join the party. Almost.

    Having a PM from Cumbria would be nice.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,355
    > @AndreaParma_82 said:
    > a ward somewhere in West Suffolk
    >
    > Lab 228
    > Ind 225
    > Con 225

    I bet there was some healthy argument over the spoiled papers.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,168
    > @GIN1138 said:
    > > @HYUFD said:
    > > > @GIN1138 said:
    > > > > @AndyJS said:
    > > > > > @GIN1138 said:
    > > > > > Vicky Ford MP on the verge of tears and head in her hands
    > > > > >
    > > > > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-england-essex-48146485/election-results-mp-vicky-ford-upset-as-tories-lose-council
    > > > > >
    > > > > > Perfect metaphor for Theresa May's Conservative Party...
    > > > >
    > > > > It's only a council, it's not the end of the world. Let's keep a sense of proportion.
    > > >
    > > > I was thinking more of the image of the MP with head on her hands and fighting back tears... Instantly takes you back to the "dark days" of the 90s for the Tories.
    > >
    > > In 1995 Blair gained 1,807 council seats, so far Corbyn has lost 79 council seats on the same electoral cycle
    > >
    > >
    > > The only way this is the 90s is the LDs are taking some Tory seats, from a Labour perspective it has been a poor set of results so far
    > >
    >
    > History never repeats exactly... But you can see the Tories are currently having a terrible time of it... Things have been going from bad to worse under May and Hammond ever since they took over in 2016.
    >
    > Maybe this time instead of Blair and Labour the threat will be from Farage and Brexit Party? ;)

    Until we leave the EU quite possibly
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    I think Vince is right - its more a general impression of disunity and in-fighting than any particular policy:

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1124254307933671424
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,888
    Blimey, the NI electorate like their local elections:

    In County Fermanagh, the turnout was almost 72% in the Erne East DEA.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-politics-47969822
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Chipping Norton has fallen to Labour (one of three seats, elected in thirds; the other two were already Labour).
This discussion has been closed.