> Believe it or not TM is not the main problem here. Yes she has made mistakes but brexit is slipping away because of the ERG hard line position. Brexit will be lost altogether if the WDA is not passed in the next few weeks
>
> Boris or Rabb or any other brexiteer will not be able to change this narrative
>
> I am content forTM to stand down but you need to accept she is not the only reason for todays results
I think she actually is the root cause of all the Tory problems. Her deal has been rejected 3 times; she won’t move away from it; she has no political agenda apart from Brexit that is at all relevant to Britain; and she lacks any campaigning ability or political charisma.
I am less preoccupied with whom the next leader is than the fact we get one who will give the party a chance to find some unity and some political relevance away from Brexit.
Fraser Nelson agrees:
"...as long as the Tories leave her in No 10, they can’t very well complain about the results."
I was supposed to be at the conference today but decided I was not really wanting to listen to Boris as guest speaker.
Today is the result of ERG refusing to endorse TM deal from day one with unrealistic expectations of a no deal brexit. I accept TM has made mistakes but she is not solely responsible for the poor showing.
For me, the conservative party need to row in behind the WDA in the next couple of weeks and then let TM stand down in an orderly manner and a full leadership election take place.
As far as the Lib Dems and others are concerned I am pleased for them as it affirms this country will not elect Corbyn and his cabal into office. Labour need to get rid of him
A few days ago I said the LDs might be able to get more votes than the Tories at the Euro elections, but I think most people thought that was a stupid prediction at the time.
> @Endillion said: > This Green surge is all very well, but what does it mean for them nationally? In the 2017 GE, they effectively campaigned for Labour across much of the country, under the banner of the "Progressive Alliance", and consequently saw their vote share plummet (relative to 2015). So what do they do in the next GE? Most of their (relatively speaking) realistic targets are Labour held, or else Tory marginals where they risk splitting the left-wing vote just by standing. > > They can't just stand 200 candidates in safe Tory seats and still claim to be a competitive national party, especially if thy have another few years of progress in the locals between now and then. And they can't oppose Labour/LDs without risking helping the Tories. So what do they do?
they could really do with trying to get lab & lib dem to let them a have a free crack at even just one extra seat in exchange for standing aside at a few others. Getting up to 2 MPs would be a big deal for them I would think. but I don't think deals like this are easy to arrange.
> @kinabalu said: > The header is spot on. As a Labour supporter it pains me to say it but what a great day for the Lib Dems. They are surely the big story here. All the chatter about Vince Cable not cutting through as leader, being 'invisible' and 'low energy' etc etc, turns out to be bollox. These results are a triumph for his party and a vindication of the man. He can go out on a high now, assuming he does not change his mind about standing down this summer, and I'm pleased about that. As the only serious politician in the Western Hemisphere to predict the Great Financial Crash of 2008, he deserves no less.
Or it could be his invisibility is an asset at a time when people are pissed off with politicians and the Brexit deadlock nonsense. His and his party's invisibility has turned out to be a massive asset - a return to the Lib Dems pre-2010, when they could hoover up protest votes and people upset with the big two coming from either direction.
> @malcolmg said: > > @AmpfieldAndy said: > > > > @CarlottaVance said: > > > > https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1124276457977647106 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/BBCHelenaLee/status/1124277258116579328 > > > > > > > > Shame May didn’t take his advice. > > > > Believe it or not TM is not the main problem here. Yes she has made mistakes but brexit is slipping away because of the ERG hard line position. Brexit will be lost altogether if the WDA is not passed in the next few weeks > > > > Boris or Rabb or any other brexiteer will not be able to change this narrative > > > > I am content forTM to stand down but you need to accept she is not the only reason for todays results > > You made it home quick after getting chucked out G
> @rottenborough said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > @AmpfieldAndy said: > > > > > @CarlottaVance said: > > > > > https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1124276457977647106 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/BBCHelenaLee/status/1124277258116579328 > > > > > > > > > > Shame May didn’t take his advice. > > > > > > Believe it or not TM is not the main problem here. Yes she has made mistakes but brexit is slipping away because of the ERG hard line position. Brexit will be lost altogether if the WDA is not passed in the next few weeks > > > > > > Boris or Rabb or any other brexiteer will not be able to change this narrative > > > > > > I am content forTM to stand down but you need to accept she is not the only reason for todays results > > > > I think she actually is the root cause of all the Tory problems. Her deal has been rejected 3 times; she won’t move away from it; she has no political agenda apart from Brexit that is at all relevant to Britain; and she lacks any campaigning ability or political charisma. > > > > I am less preoccupied with whom the next leader is than the fact we get one who will give the party a chance to find some unity and some political relevance away from Brexit. > > Fraser Nelson agrees: > > "...as long as the Tories leave her in No 10, they can’t very well complain about the results." > > https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/05/02/stuck-leader-lost-authority-tories-imploding/
Yep - shame that lesson wasn’t learnt after the 2017 GE.
Abolition of Humberside, and no incorporation of Middlesborough and Teeside unless they beg for it. No more truck with names like South, West or North unless affixed to Riding.
> @JosiasJessop said: > > @malcolmg said: > > > New International Development Secretary Rory Stewart has said he intends to stand for the Conservative leadership after Theresa May steps down. > > > > > > > > > > > > Given he gets overlooked time and time again for a big job, supposed the only way to get one is via this route. > > > > > > He should take the hint and realise he is at least as crap as the rest of the donkeys, and given where he is the top brass think he is even worse, what a slap in the chops. > > > > What does this even mean? I'm not a Tory, but Stewart has been noticeably cooler under fire than most of the Cabinet and he has also demonstrated a much greater degree of loyalty. TBH the Tories could do a lot worse and in fact Stewart by being sane and loyal has actually earned his stripes. So don't let loathing of the Tories get in the way of a sober assessment of political reality. > > He has done nothing , an empty suit, talentless. Name me one thing he has done , pontificated about etc, he was shambles in the lowly prison job he had and it is hard to be duff at DFID as all you do is give shedloads of money away to crooks and chancers. > > As ever, Wiki is your friend: > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rory_Stewart > > IMV the highlights are: > > *) Walking 6,000 miles from Pakistan to Nepal over two years, staying mainly with locals. whilst a lightweight distance-wise (*), that's one heck of a learning experience. He's also done long walks in this country. > > *) I haven't read his books, but they've been quite well received in reviews I've seen, and I thought his TV proggies excellent. even if you disagree with him, he's certainly got a mind. > > *) He set up a charity, the Turquoise Mountain Foundation, and ran it through its formative years. > > *) He was involved in governing two Iraqi provinces after the Iraq War. Whether you think he did a good job or not, it was not an easy place or task to do. IMO he deserves credit for even trying. > > So in summation: he observes, learns, thinks and tries. He puts in effort. > > It makes an MP such as, say, Gavin Newlands appear an empty vessel: > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gavin_Newlands > > (*) Not really ...
I've read one of his books. I enjoyed it. He has also walked all round his constituency, proper walking I mean, not just strolling up the high street handing out leaflets.
> @SandyRentool said: > > @El_Capitano said: > > .Just noticed this candidate in Blaydon: > > > > > > > > Lisabela Zxywhiddm Marschild, Space Navies Party, 133 (6.7%) > > > > > > > > Impressive! > > > > Her leaflet is quite magnificent: > > > > https://electionleaflets.org/leaflets/14770/ > > I support a fair few of their policies. > > Building the new parliament on top of a landfill site is pure genius.
Building a new landfill site on top of parliament would be even more so.
> @kinabalu said: > National vote share: Labour tied with the Tories with no London and no Farage on the ballot. > > Add in London and Farage - spells PM Corbyn to me.
And no Scotland with labour no seats - Corbyn will not be PM
This should be enough to trigger a leadership contest at this stage of the cycle given that the government is in utter disarray and failing to deliver on its only key policy.
Labour candidate is Momentum Corbynista. He could lose on transfers with all these votes potentially around. Depends on who predicted the top 2 correctly (I guess some LD may have the Ind as second preference)
> @AndreaParma_82 said: > North of Tyne mayoral result > > Round 1 > > Jamie Driscoll (Lab) 62,034 > > Charlie Hoult (Con) 45,494 > > John McCabe (Ind) 31,507 > > John Appleby (Lib Dem) 23,768 > > Hugh Jackson (Ukip) 20,131 > > Labour candidate is Momentum Corbynista. He could lose on transfers with all these votes potentially around. Depends on who predicted the top 2 correctly (I guess some LD may have the Ind as second preference)
the idea this isn't a safe Lab win is quite incredible.
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @kinabalu said: > > National vote share: Labour tied with the Tories with no London and no Farage on the ballot. > > > > Add in London and Farage - spells PM Corbyn to me. > > And no Scotland with labour no seats - Corbyn will not be PM
But the SNP might support a minority Lab govt remember.
Labour candidate is Momentum Corbynista. He could lose on transfers with all these votes potentially around. Depends on who predicted the top 2 correctly (I guess some LD may have the Ind as second preference)
Let me see. 2017 election called by May to increase her majority and make Brexit easier to achieve, result majority lost. 2019 locals - again real votes and the main beneficiaries the LibDems having billed themselves as the 'Party of Remain' plus the Greens (also Remainers). So the two chances the electorate have had since the referendum and they have done their best to stymie Brexit.
> @kinabalu said: > National vote share: Labour tied with the Tories with no London and no Farage on the ballot. > > Add in London and Farage - spells PM Corbyn to me.
You're assuming that Farage won't take votes from Labour. You may be right. But I wonder how safe an assumption that is.
Wales didn't vote in the locals this time round, did they?
> @KentRising said: > > @nunuone said: > > > @Sean_F said: > > > It looks like Darlington is a Conservative gain from Labour. > > > > Realignment! > > The Northeast is lost to Labour. Probably not just Brexit but the Corbynistas' deeply socially liberal agenda.
> @kinabalu said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @kinabalu said: > > > National vote share: Labour tied with the Tories with no London and no Farage on the ballot. > > > > > > Add in London and Farage - spells PM Corbyn to me. > > > > And no Scotland with labour no seats - Corbyn will not be PM > > But the SNP might support a minority Lab govt remember.
> @MikeSmithson said: > > @Sean_F said: > > It looks like Darlington is a Conservative gain from Labour. > > I'll wait for the Bastani Tweet
Why - Labour lost the council due to various pieces of incompetency (their plans to close the library and move it into the leisure centre has been an ongoing story for years).
> @logical_song said: > > @CarlottaVance said: > > https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/1124279354287112192 > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/1124279138649612289 > > Let me see. > 2017 election called by May to increase her majority and make Brexit easier to achieve, result majority lost. > 2019 locals - again real votes and the main beneficiaries the LibDems having billed themselves as the 'Party of Remain' plus the Greens (also Remainers). > So the two chances the electorate have had since the referendum and they have done their best to stymie Brexit.
Yes that is one reading but the other is that Brexit turned out to be only one of many national issues during the GE2017 campaign and maybe, just maybe, people yesterday were voting mainly on local issues?
The last referendum on Brexit was, err, the actual Brexit referendum in 2016.
We don't have wait to long for a better indication of voter opinion regarding Brexit. Three weeks in fact.
> @kinabalu said: > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > @kinabalu said: > > > National vote share: Labour tied with the Tories with no London and no Farage on the ballot. > > > > > > Add in London and Farage - spells PM Corbyn to me. > > > > And no Scotland with labour no seats - Corbyn will not be PM > > But the SNP might support a minority Lab govt remember.
Only if he gives them a second Independence referendum I suspect and if he does that, and they win it, he loses the support of their Westminster MPs. He therefore needs them to lose it for it to be worthwhile. The Coalition turned sour when the LibDems lost the AV referendum so the precedent isn’t great.
> @KentRising said: > > @nunuone said: > > > @Sean_F said: > > > It looks like Darlington is a Conservative gain from Labour. > > > > Realignment! > > The Northeast is lost to Labour. Probably not just Brexit but the Corbynistas' deeply socially liberal agenda.
It's more 20 years of incompetency coming back to bite the party
> New International Development Secretary Rory Stewart has said he intends to stand for the Conservative leadership after Theresa May steps down.
>
>
>
> Given he gets overlooked time and time again for a big job, supposed the only way to get one is via this route.
>
> He should take the hint and realise he is at least as crap as the rest of the donkeys, and given where he is the top brass think he is even worse, what a slap in the chops.
What does this even mean? I'm not a Tory, but Stewart has been noticeably cooler under fire than most of the Cabinet and he has also demonstrated a much greater degree of loyalty. TBH the Tories could do a lot worse and in fact Stewart by being sane and loyal has actually earned his stripes. So don't let loathing of the Tories get in the way of a sober assessment of political reality.
He has done nothing , an empty suit, talentless. Name me one thing he has done , pontificated about etc, he was shambles in the lowly prison job he had and it is hard to be duff at DFID as all you do is give shedloads of money away to crooks and chancers.
*) Walking 6,000 miles from Pakistan to Nepal over two years, staying mainly with locals. whilst a lightweight distance-wise (*), that's one heck of a learning experience. He's also done long walks in this country.
*) I haven't read his books, but they've been quite well received in reviews I've seen, and I thought his TV proggies excellent. even if you disagree with him, he's certainly got a mind.
*) He set up a charity, the Turquoise Mountain Foundation, and ran it through its formative years.
*) He was involved in governing two Iraqi provinces after the Iraq War. Whether you think he did a good job or not, it was not an easy place or task to do. IMO he deserves credit for even trying.
So in summation: he observes, learns, thinks and tries. He puts in effort.
What has he done for the country as an MP, a big fat zero. Outside in his own spare time fair enough, but we pay him shedloads for a cushy number where he has shown no talent.
> @AmpfieldAndy said: > > @kinabalu said: > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > @kinabalu said: > > > > National vote share: Labour tied with the Tories with no London and no Farage on the ballot. > > > > > > > > Add in London and Farage - spells PM Corbyn to me. > > > > > > And no Scotland with labour no seats - Corbyn will not be PM > > > > But the SNP might support a minority Lab govt remember. > > Only if he gives them a second Independence referendum I suspect and if he does that, and they win it, he loses the support of their Westminster MPs. He therefore needs them to lose it for it to be worthwhile. The Coalition turned sour when the LibDems lost the AV referendum so the precedent isn’t great.
Did it though? The AV referendum was in 2011 and the Lib Dems were fairly happy in coalition for another 4 years.
Anyway, I think what happened to the Lib Dems in 2015 will be enough to keep the SNP from forming any formal coalition with Labour.
> @logical_song said: > > @CarlottaVance said: > > https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/1124279354287112192 > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/1124279138649612289 > > Let me see. > 2017 election called by May to increase her majority and make Brexit easier to achieve, result majority lost. > 2019 locals - again real votes and the main beneficiaries the LibDems having billed themselves as the 'Party of Remain' plus the Greens (also Remainers). > So the two chances the electorate have had since the referendum and they have done their best to stymie Brexit.
If every Lib Dem vote is a vote for Remain, that's 18%, plus 5% or so for the Greens.
> @another_richard said: > > @Pulpstar said: > > Lol my ward has gone Labour. It's never been labour I think ! > > > > Maj of 24. > > Meanwhile in Eckington and Killamarsh Conservatives have been elected. > > Strange days indeed.
I had two Labour leaflets as opposed to the Tories one, and also noted the Labour candidate walking the village yesterday evening. John Mann featured prominently on his leaflets too. Strong GOTV effort I think
> @Pulpstar said: > > @another_richard said: > > > @Pulpstar said: > > > Lol my ward has gone Labour. It's never been labour I think ! > > > > > > Maj of 24. > > > > Meanwhile in Eckington and Killamarsh Conservatives have been elected. > > > > Strange days indeed. > > I had two Labour leaflets as opposed to the Tories one, and also noted the Labour candidate walking the village yesterday evening. John Mann featured prominently on his leaflets too. > Strong GOTV effort I think
John Mann being the image of Labour Leave wouldn't hurt in Bassetlaw.
It looks like the Conservatives might gain NE Derbyshire.
> @KentRising said: > > @AmpfieldAndy said: > > > @kinabalu said: > > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > > > > @kinabalu said: > > > > > National vote share: Labour tied with the Tories with no London and no Farage on the ballot. > > > > > > > > > > Add in London and Farage - spells PM Corbyn to me. > > > > > > > > And no Scotland with labour no seats - Corbyn will not be PM > > > > > > But the SNP might support a minority Lab govt remember. > > > > Only if he gives them a second Independence referendum I suspect and if he does that, and they win it, he loses the support of their Westminster MPs. He therefore needs them to lose it for it to be worthwhile. The Coalition turned sour when the LibDems lost the AV referendum so the precedent isn’t great. > > Did it though? The AV referendum was in 2011 and the Lib Dems were fairly happy in coalition for another 4 years. > > Anyway, I think what happened to the Lib Dems in 2015 will be enough to keep the SNP from forming any formal coalition with Labour.
It did survive, forced necessity I think, but relations soured and it didn’t achieve much. I think what you say about 2015 is however a point well made.
> Or it could be his invisibility is an asset at a time when people are pissed off with politicians and the Brexit deadlock nonsense. His and his party's invisibility has turned out to be a massive asset - a return to the Lib Dems pre-2010, when they could hoover up protest votes and people upset with the big two coming from either direction.
*
That's a good point. Hadn't thought of that. Perhaps they should stick with Vince rather than replace him with some 'charismatic' attention grabber who's going to provoke and irritate.
> @eek said: > > @KentRising said: > > > @nunuone said: > > > > @Sean_F said: > > > > It looks like Darlington is a Conservative gain from Labour. > > > > > > Realignment! > > > > The Northeast is lost to Labour. Probably not just Brexit but the Corbynistas' deeply socially liberal agenda. > > It's more 20 years of incompetency coming back to bite the party
As I've said before, the Labour Party is, or ought to be a coalition between 'old-fashioned Trade Unionism/Methodism and Marxism. At the moment it's concentrating far too much on the latter.
I'm not wrong in thinking that (for the Blues at least) its neither as bad as the possible 1,000 councillor losses a few were predicting, but not as good as the 350 losses a few on here thought they might keep it to.
Great night for the Lib Dems/Greens. Pretty poor for Labour. I really don't know what message this is telling us about Brexit. I think if Labour and the Conservatives don't sort something soon they are going to both start being seriously harmed. Doubt Labour under Corbyn have what it takes. Doubt the Conservatives under May have either.
> @kinabalu said: > The header is spot on. As a Labour supporter it pains me to say it but what a great day for the Lib Dems. They are surely the big story here. All the chatter about Vince Cable not cutting through as leader, being 'invisible' and 'low energy' etc etc, turns out to be bollox. These results are a triumph for his party and a vindication of the man. He can go out on a high now, assuming he does not change his mind about standing down this summer, and I'm pleased about that. As the only serious politician in the Western Hemisphere to predict the Great Financial Crash of 2008, he deserves no less.
But if they had really put the coalition years behind them, shouldn't they be back to where they were in 2010?
> @TheValiant said: > I'm not wrong in thinking that (for the Blues at least) its neither as bad as the possible 1,000 councillor losses a few were predicting, but not as good as the 350 losses a few on here thought they might keep it to. > > Great night for the Lib Dems/Greens. Pretty poor for Labour. > I really don't know what message this is telling us about Brexit. > I think if Labour and the Conservatives don't sort something soon they are going to both start being seriously harmed. Doubt Labour under Corbyn have what it takes. Doubt the Conservatives under May have either.
I think it will round about 1,000 by the end of the day...
I've said it before but I remain mystified as to why Corbyn Labour's only mantra is 'give us a GE'. I wish May would say 'Fuck it' and announce one just to see their Wile E. Coyote expressions as they hang in mid air over the Grand Canyon.
> @Sunil_Prasannan said: > 121/248 councils in. Tory losses on 494. 1000 losses looks on. > > Labour losses look just like a flesh-wound by comparison.
Labour should have been winning seats - yesterday evening McMao was looking for 400 plus gains
> @Sunil_Prasannan said: > 121/248 councils in. Tory losses on 494. 1000 losses looks on. > > Labour losses look just like a flesh-wound by comparison.
9 years into this government, Labour should be making (hundreds of) gains, not losses.
> @Sunil_Prasannan said: > 121/248 councils in. Tory losses on 494. 1000 losses looks on. > > Labour losses look just like a flesh-wound by comparison.
Not for the main opposition party after 9 years in opposition against the high water mark of Tory gains.
> @malcolmg said: > > @kinabalu said: > > > National vote share: Labour tied with the Tories with no London and no Farage on the ballot. > > > > > > Add in London and Farage - spells PM Corbyn to me. > > > > And no Scotland with labour no seats - Corbyn will not be PM > > G, He will give a referendum for sure to get some kind of confidence deal that gets him in Number 10
Did I miss the GE being called?
Not going to be one.
A chance, I suppose, if Tory MP numbers dwindle through recalls, other by-elections or defections, but even then I am not sure Corbyn would cobble together the coalition he needs to keep the Tories from hanging on to 2022.
In any event, I think once Brexit happens (in name only probably), which now seems increasingly likely before October (particularly after last night and the expected carnage of 23rd May if that happens), then Farage's fox is largely shot, the Brexiteer Tories will get what most of them think they want, and the Grieveite Tories will probably just shrug their shoulders, be grateful we haven't had a No Deal Brexit, and get back to worrying about a Marxist getting into power.
The ANTI BREXIT Party was a pretty clear national message. The fact that they campaign on local issues for, um, local elections is just a bonus. As others have said up thread "None so blind as WILL not see".
> @kinabalu said: > > @brokenwheel said: > > Err, it’s national equivalent voteshare, so it includes an estimate of the change in London. Fair point about Farage though. > > * > > Ah OK right. That is rather different then. Thanks for correcting me before I had the chance to mislead anybody else.
If Labour had matched the Tories in these largely shire elections it would have been astonishing!
As it is Labour haven;t done that well, and frankly considering the utter disarray of the Tories Labour's performance must be considered poor, no two ways about it.
> @Cicero said: > > @malcolmg said: > > > @williamglenn said: > > > > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124267419034431491 > > > > > > > > > > > > Because the LibDems campaigned on dog mess and potholes, rather than Brexit. > > > > That does sound about their level right enough > > The ANTI BREXIT Party was a pretty clear national message. The fact that they campaign on local issues for, um, local elections is just a bonus. As others have said up thread "None so blind as WILL not see".
The Lib Dems are coming in third on 18%. Is that such a big vote against Brexit?
Again, while I'm delighted with the Party's performance at this round of elections, a strong sense of perspective needs to be added. This isn't 1995 - this is at best starting to correct the disasters of 2011 and 2015. In 2011, the Party lost 750 seats, mainly to Labour and in 2015, over 400 seats, mainly to the Conservatives.
That's 1150 council seats lost in two rounds so while 500 or more gains would be welcome, it's a start but no more.
As an example, these are the numbers for New Forest District Council, lifted from Wikpedia - the order of the parties is CON-LD-Others.
Political Party 1995 23-31-4 1999 30-25-3 2003 32-27-1 2007 44-14-2 2011 54-6-0 2015 58-2-0 2019 46-13-1
In other words, we are back not at 1995-2003 but 2007 when the Conservatives under Cameron gained over 900 seats and the LDs lost 250, This will be the first time since 2003 the LDs have made gains in this set of elections and that's great but the magnitude of the task remains clear.
The other aspect for me is this fundamentally changes the prospective relationship with CUK. Had the LDs stood still or lost ground, CUK might well have been able to argue the LDs were dead and they would inherit the centre ground but this shows the opposite and I suspect it strengthens the prospect of some kind of electoral pact with CUK standing aside in obvious areas of local LD strength and seeking to establish themselves in areas of current LD weakness (and there are plenty of those).
What has he done for the country as an MP, a big fat zero. Outside in his own spare time fair enough, but we pay him shedloads for a cushy number where he has shown no talent.
An MP has several jobs. One is to look after his own constituency: and it can be quite hard to know exactly what an individual MP does with that role from outside. Stewart's increased his percentage at every election in his constituency (2010 as freshly elected, and then 15/17), so he's hardly being rejected by his constituents. He certainly seems to 'care' for the area he represents./
The other job is the national one, and you can be most effective at this if you have a senior position. For years Stewart was given a series of junior roles, and only recently has he been given a more senior position - and a mid-level one at that.
But as I said above, how has (say) Gavin Newlands done any better for his 'country' given the circumstances?
Cumulatively, after 10 years of Labour national government, the Cons had gained 2,846 councillors. After 9 years of Conservative led government, Labour, before today, have gained 654.
Comments
"...as long as the Tories leave her in No 10, they can’t very well complain about the results."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/05/02/stuck-leader-lost-authority-tories-imploding/
> https://twitter.com/paulbranditv/status/1124278124307521536
>
>
>
> Has anyone heard from @BigG recently?
I was supposed to be at the conference today but decided I was not really wanting to listen to Boris as guest speaker.
Today is the result of ERG refusing to endorse TM deal from day one with unrealistic expectations of a no deal brexit. I accept TM has made mistakes but she is not solely responsible for the poor showing.
For me, the conservative party need to row in behind the WDA in the next couple of weeks and then let TM stand down in an orderly manner and a full leadership election take place.
As far as the Lib Dems and others are concerned I am pleased for them as it affirms this country will not elect Corbyn and his cabal into office. Labour need to get rid of him
> This Green surge is all very well, but what does it mean for them nationally? In the 2017 GE, they effectively campaigned for Labour across much of the country, under the banner of the "Progressive Alliance", and consequently saw their vote share plummet (relative to 2015). So what do they do in the next GE? Most of their (relatively speaking) realistic targets are Labour held, or else Tory marginals where they risk splitting the left-wing vote just by standing.
>
> They can't just stand 200 candidates in safe Tory seats and still claim to be a competitive national party, especially if thy have another few years of progress in the locals between now and then. And they can't oppose Labour/LDs without risking helping the Tories. So what do they do?
they could really do with trying to get lab & lib dem to let them a have a free crack at even just one extra seat in exchange for standing aside at a few others. Getting up to 2 MPs would be a big deal for them I would think. but I don't think deals like this are easy to arrange.
> .Just noticed this candidate in Blaydon:
>
>
>
> Lisabela Zxywhiddm Marschild, Space Navies Party, 133 (6.7%)
>
>
>
> Impressive!
>
> Her leaflet is quite magnificent:
>
> https://electionleaflets.org/leaflets/14770/
I support a fair few of their policies.
Building the new parliament on top of a landfill site is pure genius.
https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/1124279138649612289
> The header is spot on. As a Labour supporter it pains me to say it but what a great day for the Lib Dems. They are surely the big story here. All the chatter about Vince Cable not cutting through as leader, being 'invisible' and 'low energy' etc etc, turns out to be bollox. These results are a triumph for his party and a vindication of the man. He can go out on a high now, assuming he does not change his mind about standing down this summer, and I'm pleased about that. As the only serious politician in the Western Hemisphere to predict the Great Financial Crash of 2008, he deserves no less.
Or it could be his invisibility is an asset at a time when people are pissed off with politicians and the Brexit deadlock nonsense. His and his party's invisibility has turned out to be a massive asset - a return to the Lib Dems pre-2010, when they could hoover up protest votes and people upset with the big two coming from either direction.
> > @AmpfieldAndy said:
>
> > > @CarlottaVance said:
>
> > > https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1124276457977647106
>
>
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > >
>
> > > https://twitter.com/BBCHelenaLee/status/1124277258116579328
>
>
>
> >
>
> > Shame May didn’t take his advice.
>
>
>
> Believe it or not TM is not the main problem here. Yes she has made mistakes but brexit is slipping away because of the ERG hard line position. Brexit will be lost altogether if the WDA is not passed in the next few weeks
>
>
>
> Boris or Rabb or any other brexiteer will not be able to change this narrative
>
>
>
> I am content forTM to stand down but you need to accept she is not the only reason for todays results
>
> You made it home quick after getting chucked out G
As if TM would chuck me out !!!!!
> https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1124281407625420800?s=19
>
> Bad for Tories
> Woeful for the main opposition
This is much the same as the vote share the Conservatives won in 1993, 1996, and 1994, but then Labour were polling in the mid 40's.
I imagine he goes down like cold sick in the towns of Middle England.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
>
> > > @AmpfieldAndy said:
>
> > > > @CarlottaVance said:
>
> > > > https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1124276457977647106
>
>
>
> > > >
>
> > > >
>
> > > >
>
> > > > https://twitter.com/BBCHelenaLee/status/1124277258116579328
>
>
>
> > >
>
> > > Shame May didn’t take his advice.
>
> >
>
> > Believe it or not TM is not the main problem here. Yes she has made mistakes but brexit is slipping away because of the ERG hard line position. Brexit will be lost altogether if the WDA is not passed in the next few weeks
>
> >
>
> > Boris or Rabb or any other brexiteer will not be able to change this narrative
>
> >
>
> > I am content forTM to stand down but you need to accept she is not the only reason for todays results
>
>
>
> I think she actually is the root cause of all the Tory problems. Her deal has been rejected 3 times; she won’t move away from it; she has no political agenda apart from Brexit that is at all relevant to Britain; and she lacks any campaigning ability or political charisma.
>
>
>
> I am less preoccupied with whom the next leader is than the fact we get one who will give the party a chance to find some unity and some political relevance away from Brexit.
>
> Fraser Nelson agrees:
>
> "...as long as the Tories leave her in No 10, they can’t very well complain about the results."
>
> https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/05/02/stuck-leader-lost-authority-tories-imploding/
Yep - shame that lesson wasn’t learnt after the 2017 GE.
> It looks like Darlington is a Conservative gain from Labour.
Realignment!
These are as Dyed says woeful for Jezza.
https://twitter.com/ChrisMusson/status/1124282879142432769
Add in London and Farage - spells PM Corbyn to me.
Agree that this is shite for Labour.
Abolition of Humberside, and no incorporation of Middlesborough and Teeside unless they beg for it. No more truck with names like South, West or North unless affixed to Riding.
> > @dyedwoolie said:
> > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1124281407625420800?s=19
> >
> > Bad for Tories
> > Woeful for the main opposition
>
> This is much the same as the vote share the Conservatives won in 1993, 1996, and 1994, but then Labour were polling in the mid 40's.
LibDems still under 20% would be crap for them as well.
They were at 30% in 2003 and 26% in 2007.
> > @Sean_F said:
> > It looks like Darlington is a Conservative gain from Labour.
>
> Realignment!
The Northeast is lost to Labour. Probably not just Brexit but the Corbynistas' deeply socially liberal agenda.
> > @malcolmg said:
>
> > New International Development Secretary Rory Stewart has said he intends to stand for the Conservative leadership after Theresa May steps down.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Given he gets overlooked time and time again for a big job, supposed the only way to get one is via this route.
>
> >
>
> > He should take the hint and realise he is at least as crap as the rest of the donkeys, and given where he is the top brass think he is even worse, what a slap in the chops.
>
>
>
> What does this even mean? I'm not a Tory, but Stewart has been noticeably cooler under fire than most of the Cabinet and he has also demonstrated a much greater degree of loyalty. TBH the Tories could do a lot worse and in fact Stewart by being sane and loyal has actually earned his stripes. So don't let loathing of the Tories get in the way of a sober assessment of political reality.
>
> He has done nothing , an empty suit, talentless. Name me one thing he has done , pontificated about etc, he was shambles in the lowly prison job he had and it is hard to be duff at DFID as all you do is give shedloads of money away to crooks and chancers.
>
> As ever, Wiki is your friend:
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rory_Stewart
>
> IMV the highlights are:
>
> *) Walking 6,000 miles from Pakistan to Nepal over two years, staying mainly with locals. whilst a lightweight distance-wise (*), that's one heck of a learning experience. He's also done long walks in this country.
>
> *) I haven't read his books, but they've been quite well received in reviews I've seen, and I thought his TV proggies excellent. even if you disagree with him, he's certainly got a mind.
>
> *) He set up a charity, the Turquoise Mountain Foundation, and ran it through its formative years.
>
> *) He was involved in governing two Iraqi provinces after the Iraq War. Whether you think he did a good job or not, it was not an easy place or task to do. IMO he deserves credit for even trying.
>
> So in summation: he observes, learns, thinks and tries. He puts in effort.
>
> It makes an MP such as, say, Gavin Newlands appear an empty vessel:
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gavin_Newlands
>
> (*) Not really ...
I've read one of his books. I enjoyed it. He has also walked all round his constituency, proper walking I mean, not just strolling up the high street handing out leaflets.
> > @El_Capitano said:
> > .Just noticed this candidate in Blaydon:
> >
> >
> >
> > Lisabela Zxywhiddm Marschild, Space Navies Party, 133 (6.7%)
> >
> >
> >
> > Impressive!
> >
> > Her leaflet is quite magnificent:
> >
> > https://electionleaflets.org/leaflets/14770/
>
> I support a fair few of their policies.
>
> Building the new parliament on top of a landfill site is pure genius.
Building a new landfill site on top of parliament would be even more so.
> National vote share: Labour tied with the Tories with no London and no Farage on the ballot.
>
> Add in London and Farage - spells PM Corbyn to me.
And no Scotland with labour no seats - Corbyn will not be PM
This should be enough to trigger a leadership contest at this stage of the cycle given that the government is in utter disarray and failing to deliver on its only key policy.
Round 1
Jamie Driscoll (Lab) 62,034
Charlie Hoult (Con) 45,494
John McCabe (Ind) 31,507
John Appleby (Lib Dem) 23,768
Hugh Jackson (Ukip) 20,131
Labour candidate is Momentum Corbynista. He could lose on transfers with all these votes potentially around. Depends on who predicted the top 2 correctly (I guess some LD may have the Ind as second preference)
A pity I didn't hear them as I'd have enjoyed giving them some voter feedback.
> North of Tyne mayoral result
>
> Round 1
>
> Jamie Driscoll (Lab) 62,034
>
> Charlie Hoult (Con) 45,494
>
> John McCabe (Ind) 31,507
>
> John Appleby (Lib Dem) 23,768
>
> Hugh Jackson (Ukip) 20,131
>
> Labour candidate is Momentum Corbynista. He could lose on transfers with all these votes potentially around. Depends on who predicted the top 2 correctly (I guess some LD may have the Ind as second preference)
the idea this isn't a safe Lab win is quite incredible.
> > @kinabalu said:
> > National vote share: Labour tied with the Tories with no London and no Farage on the ballot.
> >
> > Add in London and Farage - spells PM Corbyn to me.
>
> And no Scotland with labour no seats - Corbyn will not be PM
But the SNP might support a minority Lab govt remember.
> https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/1124279354287112192
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/1124279138649612289
Let me see.
2017 election called by May to increase her majority and make Brexit easier to achieve, result majority lost.
2019 locals - again real votes and the main beneficiaries the LibDems having billed themselves as the 'Party of Remain' plus the Greens (also Remainers).
So the two chances the electorate have had since the referendum and they have done their best to stymie Brexit.
> National vote share: Labour tied with the Tories with no London and no Farage on the ballot.
>
> Add in London and Farage - spells PM Corbyn to me.
You're assuming that Farage won't take votes from Labour. You may be right. But I wonder how safe an assumption that is.
Wales didn't vote in the locals this time round, did they?
> > @nunuone said:
> > > @Sean_F said:
> > > It looks like Darlington is a Conservative gain from Labour.
> >
> > Realignment!
>
> The Northeast is lost to Labour. Probably not just Brexit but the Corbynistas' deeply socially liberal agenda.
Will it go ScotLab.........
> https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1124276708989968384
That is magnificently bitchy of Jess!
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @kinabalu said:
> > > National vote share: Labour tied with the Tories with no London and no Farage on the ballot.
> > >
> > > Add in London and Farage - spells PM Corbyn to me.
> >
> > And no Scotland with labour no seats - Corbyn will not be PM
>
> But the SNP might support a minority Lab govt remember.
Not Corbyn
> > @Sean_F said:
> > It looks like Darlington is a Conservative gain from Labour.
>
> I'll wait for the Bastani Tweet
Why - Labour lost the council due to various pieces of incompetency (their plans to close the library and move it into the leisure centre has been an ongoing story for years).
Equally the £400,000 final years pay for the previous chief executive has probably impacted a few votes https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/opinion/letters/17579487.town-hall-rich-list-alleges-ada-burns-earned-almost-387652-last-year-how-can-that-be-true/
> > @CarlottaVance said:
> > https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/1124279354287112192
> >
> >
> >
> > https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/1124279138649612289
>
> Let me see.
> 2017 election called by May to increase her majority and make Brexit easier to achieve, result majority lost.
> 2019 locals - again real votes and the main beneficiaries the LibDems having billed themselves as the 'Party of Remain' plus the Greens (also Remainers).
> So the two chances the electorate have had since the referendum and they have done their best to stymie Brexit.
Yes that is one reading but the other is that Brexit turned out to be only one of many national issues during the GE2017 campaign and maybe, just maybe, people yesterday were voting mainly on local issues?
The last referendum on Brexit was, err, the actual Brexit referendum in 2016.
We don't have wait to long for a better indication of voter opinion regarding Brexit. Three weeks in fact.
> Lol my ward has gone Labour. It's never been labour I think !
>
> Maj of 24.
Meanwhile in Eckington and Killamarsh Conservatives have been elected.
Strange days indeed.
> > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > @kinabalu said:
> > > National vote share: Labour tied with the Tories with no London and no Farage on the ballot.
> > >
> > > Add in London and Farage - spells PM Corbyn to me.
> >
> > And no Scotland with labour no seats - Corbyn will not be PM
>
> But the SNP might support a minority Lab govt remember.
Only if he gives them a second Independence referendum I suspect and if he does that, and they win it, he loses the support of their Westminster MPs. He therefore needs them to lose it for it to be worthwhile. The Coalition turned sour when the LibDems lost the AV referendum so the precedent isn’t great.
> > @nunuone said:
> > > @Sean_F said:
> > > It looks like Darlington is a Conservative gain from Labour.
> >
> > Realignment!
>
> The Northeast is lost to Labour. Probably not just Brexit but the Corbynistas' deeply socially liberal agenda.
It's more 20 years of incompetency coming back to bite the party
> > @kinabalu said:
> > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > @kinabalu said:
> > > > National vote share: Labour tied with the Tories with no London and no Farage on the ballot.
> > > >
> > > > Add in London and Farage - spells PM Corbyn to me.
> > >
> > > And no Scotland with labour no seats - Corbyn will not be PM
> >
> > But the SNP might support a minority Lab govt remember.
>
> Only if he gives them a second Independence referendum I suspect and if he does that, and they win it, he loses the support of their Westminster MPs. He therefore needs them to lose it for it to be worthwhile. The Coalition turned sour when the LibDems lost the AV referendum so the precedent isn’t great.
Did it though? The AV referendum was in 2011 and the Lib Dems were fairly happy in coalition for another 4 years.
Anyway, I think what happened to the Lib Dems in 2015 will be enough to keep the SNP from forming any formal coalition with Labour.
> > @CarlottaVance said:
> > https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/1124279354287112192
> >
> >
> >
> > https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/1124279138649612289
>
> Let me see.
> 2017 election called by May to increase her majority and make Brexit easier to achieve, result majority lost.
> 2019 locals - again real votes and the main beneficiaries the LibDems having billed themselves as the 'Party of Remain' plus the Greens (also Remainers).
> So the two chances the electorate have had since the referendum and they have done their best to stymie Brexit.
If every Lib Dem vote is a vote for Remain, that's 18%, plus 5% or so for the Greens.
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > Lol my ward has gone Labour. It's never been labour I think !
> >
> > Maj of 24.
>
> Meanwhile in Eckington and Killamarsh Conservatives have been elected.
>
> Strange days indeed.
I had two Labour leaflets as opposed to the Tories one, and also noted the Labour candidate walking the village yesterday evening. John Mann featured prominently on his leaflets too.
Strong GOTV effort I think
> > @another_richard said:
> > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > Lol my ward has gone Labour. It's never been labour I think !
> > >
> > > Maj of 24.
> >
> > Meanwhile in Eckington and Killamarsh Conservatives have been elected.
> >
> > Strange days indeed.
>
> I had two Labour leaflets as opposed to the Tories one, and also noted the Labour candidate walking the village yesterday evening. John Mann featured prominently on his leaflets too.
> Strong GOTV effort I think
John Mann being the image of Labour Leave wouldn't hurt in Bassetlaw.
It looks like the Conservatives might gain NE Derbyshire.
> > @AmpfieldAndy said:
> > > @kinabalu said:
> > > > @Big_G_NorthWales said:
> > > > > @kinabalu said:
> > > > > National vote share: Labour tied with the Tories with no London and no Farage on the ballot.
> > > > >
> > > > > Add in London and Farage - spells PM Corbyn to me.
> > > >
> > > > And no Scotland with labour no seats - Corbyn will not be PM
> > >
> > > But the SNP might support a minority Lab govt remember.
> >
> > Only if he gives them a second Independence referendum I suspect and if he does that, and they win it, he loses the support of their Westminster MPs. He therefore needs them to lose it for it to be worthwhile. The Coalition turned sour when the LibDems lost the AV referendum so the precedent isn’t great.
>
> Did it though? The AV referendum was in 2011 and the Lib Dems were fairly happy in coalition for another 4 years.
>
> Anyway, I think what happened to the Lib Dems in 2015 will be enough to keep the SNP from forming any formal coalition with Labour.
It did survive, forced necessity I think, but relations soured and it didn’t achieve much. I think what you say about 2015 is however a point well made.
> Or it could be his invisibility is an asset at a time when people are pissed off with politicians and the Brexit deadlock nonsense. His and his party's invisibility has turned out to be a massive asset - a return to the Lib Dems pre-2010, when they could hoover up protest votes and people upset with the big two coming from either direction.
*
That's a good point. Hadn't thought of that. Perhaps they should stick with Vince rather than replace him with some 'charismatic' attention grabber who's going to provoke and irritate.
> > @KentRising said:
> > > @nunuone said:
> > > > @Sean_F said:
> > > > It looks like Darlington is a Conservative gain from Labour.
> > >
> > > Realignment!
> >
> > The Northeast is lost to Labour. Probably not just Brexit but the Corbynistas' deeply socially liberal agenda.
>
> It's more 20 years of incompetency coming back to bite the party
As I've said before, the Labour Party is, or ought to be a coalition between 'old-fashioned Trade Unionism/Methodism and Marxism. At the moment it's concentrating far too much on the latter.
Great night for the Lib Dems/Greens. Pretty poor for Labour.
I really don't know what message this is telling us about Brexit.
I think if Labour and the Conservatives don't sort something soon they are going to both start being seriously harmed. Doubt Labour under Corbyn have what it takes. Doubt the Conservatives under May have either.
> The header is spot on. As a Labour supporter it pains me to say it but what a great day for the Lib Dems. They are surely the big story here. All the chatter about Vince Cable not cutting through as leader, being 'invisible' and 'low energy' etc etc, turns out to be bollox. These results are a triumph for his party and a vindication of the man. He can go out on a high now, assuming he does not change his mind about standing down this summer, and I'm pleased about that. As the only serious politician in the Western Hemisphere to predict the Great Financial Crash of 2008, he deserves no less.
But if they had really put the coalition years behind them, shouldn't they be back to where they were in 2010?
That projected share of 18% is actually identical with the one from 2017, and is 9 points below the one from 2010:
https://electionsetc.com/2019/05/01/calculating-the-local-elections-projected-national-share-pns-and-projected-house-of-commons-in-2019/
> I'm not wrong in thinking that (for the Blues at least) its neither as bad as the possible 1,000 councillor losses a few were predicting, but not as good as the 350 losses a few on here thought they might keep it to.
>
> Great night for the Lib Dems/Greens. Pretty poor for Labour.
> I really don't know what message this is telling us about Brexit.
> I think if Labour and the Conservatives don't sort something soon they are going to both start being seriously harmed. Doubt Labour under Corbyn have what it takes. Doubt the Conservatives under May have either.
I think it will round about 1,000 by the end of the day...
> https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1124282043926499328
>
> This should be enough to trigger a leadership contest at this stage of the cycle given that the government is in utter disarray and failing to deliver on its only key policy.
I've said it before but I remain mystified as to why Corbyn Labour's only mantra is 'give us a GE'. I wish May would say 'Fuck it' and announce one just to see their Wile E. Coyote expressions as they hang in mid air over the Grand Canyon.
Conservatives LOSE three seats Elmbridge
The big news from Elmbridge is that the Conservatives have lost three seats.
Richard John lost out to residents’ association candidate Richard Williams in Esher
Paul Wood lost out to Lib Dem Ashley Tilling in Weybridge Riverside
John O’Reilly came second to independent candidate Tom Catton in Weybridge St George’s Hill
> 121/248 councils in. Tory losses on 494. 1000 losses looks on.
>
> Labour losses look just like a flesh-wound by comparison.
Labour should have been winning seats - yesterday evening McMao was looking for 400 plus gains
> https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1124281407625420800?s=19
>
> Bad for Tories
> Woeful for the main opposition
Others 23% then. Without the Brexit Party even being on the ballot.
> https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1124283235465342982
Christ. I'd better prepare myself for deportation.
> 121/248 councils in. Tory losses on 494. 1000 losses looks on.
>
> Labour losses look just like a flesh-wound by comparison.
9 years into this government, Labour should be making (hundreds of) gains, not losses.
> > @dyedwoolie said:
> > https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1124281407625420800?s=19
> >
> > Bad for Tories
> > Woeful for the main opposition
>
> Others 23% then. Without the Brexit Party even being on the ballot.
25%!
https://order-order.com/2019/05/03/curtice-not-remain-backlash/
https://order-order.com/2019/05/03/labour-staffer-corbyn-poison-doorstep/
> 121/248 councils in. Tory losses on 494. 1000 losses looks on.
>
> Labour losses look just like a flesh-wound by comparison.
Not for the main opposition party after 9 years in opposition against the high water mark of Tory gains.
https://twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/1124289911975182336
> https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1124276708989968384
She's going to be in deep trouble on Twitter, talking about eating cake like that to a diabetic.
https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1124289829292916737
> > @kinabalu said:
>
> > National vote share: Labour tied with the Tories with no London and no Farage on the ballot.
>
> >
>
> > Add in London and Farage - spells PM Corbyn to me.
>
>
>
> And no Scotland with labour no seats - Corbyn will not be PM
>
> G, He will give a referendum for sure to get some kind of confidence deal that gets him in Number 10
Did I miss the GE being called?
Not going to be one.
A chance, I suppose, if Tory MP numbers dwindle through recalls, other by-elections or defections, but even then I am not sure Corbyn would cobble together the coalition he needs to keep the Tories from hanging on to 2022.
In any event, I think once Brexit happens (in name only probably), which now seems increasingly likely before October (particularly after last night and the expected carnage of 23rd May if that happens), then Farage's fox is largely shot, the Brexiteer Tories will get what most of them think they want, and the Grieveite Tories will probably just shrug their shoulders, be grateful we haven't had a No Deal Brexit, and get back to worrying about a Marxist getting into power.
> > @rottenborough said:
> > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1124283235465342982
>
> Christ. I'd better prepare myself for deportation.
Any council elections in Cornwall this time? I fancy a bit of Mebyon Kernow....
Err, it’s national equivalent voteshare, so it includes an estimate of the change in London. Fair point about Farage though.
*
Ah OK right. That is rather different then. Thanks for correcting me before I had the chance to mislead anybody else.
> > @rottenborough said:
> > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1124283235465342982
>
> Christ. I'd better prepare myself for deportation.
They got 8.6% of the vote in the Sheffield mayoral election. An outside chance for an MEP seat, perhaps?
>Outside in his own spare time fair enough, but we pay him shedloads for a cushy number where he has shown no talent.
He's an accountant?
https://twitter.com/pmcm1355/status/1124280810763321344
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-48143634
> > @williamglenn said:
>
> > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124267419034431491
>
>
>
>
>
> Because the LibDems campaigned on dog mess and potholes, rather than Brexit.
>
> That does sound about their level right enough
The ANTI BREXIT Party was a pretty clear national message. The fact that they campaign on local issues for, um, local elections is just a bonus. As others have said up thread "None so blind as WILL not see".
> > @brokenwheel said:
>
> Err, it’s national equivalent voteshare, so it includes an estimate of the change in London. Fair point about Farage though.
>
> *
>
> Ah OK right. That is rather different then. Thanks for correcting me before I had the chance to mislead anybody else.
If Labour had matched the Tories in these largely shire elections it would have been astonishing!
As it is Labour haven;t done that well, and frankly considering the utter disarray of the Tories Labour's performance must be considered poor, no two ways about it.
> > @malcolmg said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> >
> > > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124267419034431491
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Because the LibDems campaigned on dog mess and potholes, rather than Brexit.
> >
> > That does sound about their level right enough
>
> The ANTI BREXIT Party was a pretty clear national message. The fact that they campaign on local issues for, um, local elections is just a bonus. As others have said up thread "None so blind as WILL not see".
The Lib Dems are coming in third on 18%. Is that such a big vote against Brexit?
> https://twitter.com/KateEMcCann/status/1124290405904916480
F'ing hell.
Honestly I would have slapped him one there and then.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/KateEMcCann/status/1124290405904916480
>
> F'ing hell.
>
> Honestly I would have slapped him one there and then.
Hes an attention seeking moron, they need to stop giving him air time
Again, while I'm delighted with the Party's performance at this round of elections, a strong sense of perspective needs to be added. This isn't 1995 - this is at best starting to correct the disasters of 2011 and 2015. In 2011, the Party lost 750 seats, mainly to Labour and in 2015, over 400 seats, mainly to the Conservatives.
That's 1150 council seats lost in two rounds so while 500 or more gains would be welcome, it's a start but no more.
As an example, these are the numbers for New Forest District Council, lifted from Wikpedia - the order of the parties is CON-LD-Others.
Political Party
1995 23-31-4
1999 30-25-3
2003 32-27-1
2007 44-14-2
2011 54-6-0
2015 58-2-0
2019 46-13-1
In other words, we are back not at 1995-2003 but 2007 when the Conservatives under Cameron gained over 900 seats and the LDs lost 250, This will be the first time since 2003 the LDs have made gains in this set of elections and that's great but the magnitude of the task remains clear.
The other aspect for me is this fundamentally changes the prospective relationship with CUK. Had the LDs stood still or lost ground, CUK might well have been able to argue the LDs were dead and they would inherit the centre ground but this shows the opposite and I suspect it strengthens the prospect of some kind of electoral pact with CUK standing aside in obvious areas of local LD strength and seeking to establish themselves in areas of current LD weakness (and there are plenty of those).
The other job is the national one, and you can be most effective at this if you have a senior position. For years Stewart was given a series of junior roles, and only recently has he been given a more senior position - and a mid-level one at that.
But as I said above, how has (say) Gavin Newlands done any better for his 'country' given the circumstances?
> Con hold Solihull (just).
But, lose Mendip to NOC. For some reason, the Conservatives are performing terribly in Somerset.
1999:Con: +1,348, Lab: -1,150, LibD: -90
2003: Con + 566, Lab: -833, LibD +193
2007: Con: +932, Lab: -665, LibD: -255
2011: Con: +86, Lab: +857, LibD: -748
2015: Con: +541, Lab: -203, LibD: -411
Cumulatively, after 10 years of Labour national government, the Cons had gained 2,846 councillors. After 9 years of Conservative led government, Labour, before today, have gained 654.