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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LDs – putting the coalition years behind them
In many ways this is all going to what had been expected. Rallings and Thrasher had predicted 400 LD gains while Tory elections expert, Lord Hayward, had put it at 500. We’ll have to see how this goes.
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> Given the lib dems hardly trouble the scorers when it comes to VI polls, makes you wonder if the pooling companies are really picking up what is going on.
One issue is that some of the alternatives in the polls (e.g.Greens or Change UK) won't have been standing a candidate in the ward that a voter was voting in, because they don't have the breadth and depth of electoral infrastructure that the Liberal Democrats have.
Given he gets overlooked time and time again for a big job, supposed the only way to get one is via this route.
> > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > Given the lib dems hardly trouble the scorers when it comes to VI polls, makes you wonder if the pooling companies are really picking up what is going on.
>
> One issue is that some of the alternatives in the polls (e.g.Greens or Change UK) won't have been standing a candidate in the ward that a voter was voting in, because they don't have the breadth and depth of electoral infrastructure that the Liberal Democrats have.
Obviously one other thing is you can safely vote for them without worrying about waking up to a corbn / mcdonnell double act in power.
Well, that's two of us who have noticed, so you never know...
It's a big step on the long road back - a significant step but just a step. Councils like VWH, North Devon and Chelmsford were held in the good years in the 90s and 00s so it's welcome to see them coming back under LD control. There are still areas which need to be regained and clearly large areas of the country have no LD presence at all.
Independents have perhaps been the bigger beneficiary of the Conservative and Labour collapse and we may see more of that later today.
What it means for the LDs is more members, more coverage, more attention and hopefully more people prepared to listen when they see Jo Swinson, Ed Davey or Layla Moran on the tv or on a political show.
I'm certain a lot of this election has been about Conservatives abstaining but are these abstainers the potential foot soldiers of Farage's BP army? Will we see BP candidates and indeed CUK candidates in the 2020 set of elections?
Move forward to 2021 and the County Councils won at the peak of May's pre-election popularity will be up again - if we are still in the EU morass and the BP put up candidates, well, I'll leave that one with you...
> > @OblitusSumMe said:
> > > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > > Given the lib dems hardly trouble the scorers when it comes to VI polls, makes you wonder if the pooling companies are really picking up what is going on.
> >
> > One issue is that some of the alternatives in the polls (e.g.Greens or Change UK) won't have been standing a candidate in the ward that a voter was voting in, because they don't have the breadth and depth of electoral infrastructure that the Liberal Democrats have.
>
> Obviously one other thing is you can safely vote for them without worrying about waking up to a corbn / mcdonnell double act in power.
Your pot-holes are safe in LibDem hands......
EDIT: Gawd, just realised that with all these new LibDem councillors, we are going to see the return of "pointing at pot-holes pics" in a billion leaflets....
> I think the octupling of the Green coumncillor count deserves a bit more attention.
The Greens could win a lot of seats in Herefordshire later today.
> I think the octupling of the Green coumncillor count deserves a bit more attention.
Considering the small number of candidates it is quite impressive. I forecast a good Green vote in the Euros. The top Green in the EM looks a good sort.
Tory voters really alienated by May are voting LD as are Labour voters who don’t want Corbyn’s back to the future Marxism.
https://twitter.com/AmIRightSir/status/1124230112625471489
https://www.broxtowe.gov.uk/elections-overview/
> 40 years on...
>
> https://twitter.com/AmIRightSir/status/1124230112625471489
The Tory share in 1979 was almost the same as at GE2017.
> > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > > @OblitusSumMe said:
> > > > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > > > Given the lib dems hardly trouble the scorers when it comes to VI polls, makes you wonder if the pooling companies are really picking up what is going on.
> > >
> > > One issue is that some of the alternatives in the polls (e.g.Greens or Change UK) won't have been standing a candidate in the ward that a voter was voting in, because they don't have the breadth and depth of electoral infrastructure that the Liberal Democrats have.
> >
> > Obviously one other thing is you can safely vote for them without worrying about waking up to a corbn / mcdonnell double act in power.
>
> Your pot-holes are safe in LibDem hands......
>
> EDIT: Gawd, just realised that with all these new LibDem councillors, we are going to see the return of "pointing at pot-holes pics" in a billion leaflets....
It would be interesting to see how many of those potholes ever get repaired if said LD then gets elected...
https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1124231043253440513
In Scotland labour tried to play the flip flop road on the independence referendum and got squashed. Will they make the same mistake on brexit?
The long term impact is a new energised Lib Dem base back in the Home Counties mostly. This will worry many Tory mps.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-48142962
Wipe out by Yellow Peril.
LD 67%
CON 28%
LAB 5%
The turnout was 54%
> Up to a point, perhaps.
>
> It's a big step on the long road back - a significant step but just a step. Councils like VWH, North Devon and Chelmsford were held in the good years in the 90s and 00s so it's welcome to see them coming back under LD control. There are still areas which need to be regained and clearly large areas of the country have no LD presence at all.
>
> Independents have perhaps been the bigger beneficiary of the Conservative and Labour collapse and we may see more of that later today.
>
> What it means for the LDs is more members, more coverage, more attention and hopefully more people prepared to listen when they see Jo Swinson, Ed Davey or Layla Moran on the tv or on a political show.
>
> I'm certain a lot of this election has been about Conservatives abstaining but are these abstainers the potential foot soldiers of Farage's BP army? Will we see BP candidates and indeed CUK candidates in the 2020 set of elections?
>
> Move forward to 2021 and the County Councils won at the peak of May's pre-election popularity will be up again - if we are still in the EU morass and the BP put up candidates, well, I'll leave that one with you...
>
Sky reporting turnout around 33% and on par with other local elections
> New International Development Secretary Rory Stewart has said he intends to stand for the Conservative leadership after Theresa May steps down.
>
>
>
> Given he gets overlooked time and time again for a big job, supposed the only way to get one is via this route.
>
> He should take the hint and realise he is at least as crap as the rest of the donkeys, and given where he is the top brass think he is even worse, what a slap in the chops.
What does this even mean? I'm not a Tory, but Stewart has been noticeably cooler under fire than most of the Cabinet and he has also demonstrated a much greater degree of loyalty. TBH the Tories could do a lot worse and in fact Stewart by being sane and loyal has actually earned his stripes. So don't let loathing of the Tories get in the way of a sober assessment of political reality.
> > @stodge said:
> > Up to a point, perhaps.
> >
> > It's a big step on the long road back - a significant step but just a step. Councils like VWH, North Devon and Chelmsford were held in the good years in the 90s and 00s so it's welcome to see them coming back under LD control. There are still areas which need to be regained and clearly large areas of the country have no LD presence at all.
> >
> > Independents have perhaps been the bigger beneficiary of the Conservative and Labour collapse and we may see more of that later today.
> >
> > What it means for the LDs is more members, more coverage, more attention and hopefully more people prepared to listen when they see Jo Swinson, Ed Davey or Layla Moran on the tv or on a political show.
> >
> > I'm certain a lot of this election has been about Conservatives abstaining but are these abstainers the potential foot soldiers of Farage's BP army? Will we see BP candidates and indeed CUK candidates in the 2020 set of elections?
> >
> > Move forward to 2021 and the County Councils won at the peak of May's pre-election popularity will be up again - if we are still in the EU morass and the BP put up candidates, well, I'll leave that one with you...
> >
>
> Sky reporting turnout around 33% and on par with other local elections
Exactly. All that stuff yesterday about derisory turnout was just PB fluff
https://www.publicfinance.co.uk/news/2019/05/nao-slams-crossrail-chiefs-lack-planning?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_term=
> Labour are probably lucky these elections didn’t include places like London. Clearly their fence sitting and refusal to back a second vote in all circumstances would have seen heavier losses in pro EU areas .
How do you work that out?
Labour lost a whole bunch of councillors in Leave-voting Sunderland, but didn't lose any councillors in Remain-voting Cambridge.
UKIP (Uber Leave) -32%
Con (Hard Leave) -26%
Lab (Soft Leave) -6%
LD (Remain) +109%
Green (Remain) +500%
Message is very clear - the UK now wants to Remain.
https://www.broxtowe.gov.uk/elections-overview/attenborough-and-chilwell-east/
> Consternation at Rees Mogg Towers.
>
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-48142962
>
> Wipe out by Yellow Peril.
This was the result in Rees Mogg's constituency at the last election:
Con 53.6%
Lab 34.7%
LD 8.3%
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000846
> Proportionate change in seat numbers, currently:
>
> UKIP (Uber Leave) -32%
> Con (Hard Leave) -26%
> Lab (Soft Leave) -6%
> LD (Remain) +109%
> Green (Remain) +500%
>
> Message is very clear - the UK now wants to Remain.
What are the number of councillors elected.
> Proportionate change in seat numbers, currently:
>
> UKIP (Uber Leave) -32%
> Con (Hard Leave) -26%
> Lab (Soft Leave) -6%
> LD (Remain) +109%
> Green (Remain) +500%
>
> Message seems very clear - the UK now wants to Remain.
Yes, I would guess that is the real reason for the general discontent and the ever more shrill nonsense from the Far Right: the country has changed its mind they know it. Meanwhile Labour are still hedging while the Tories are walking off into the wilderness. Even if a Brexit fudge can be cobbled together between May and Corbyn, without a PV both parties will be eviscerated.
> New International Development Secretary Rory Stewart has said he intends to stand for the Conservative leadership after Theresa May steps down.
>
>
>
> Given he gets overlooked time and time again for a big job, supposed the only way to get one is via this route.
>
> He should take the hint and realise he is at least as crap as the rest of the donkeys, and given where he is the top brass think he is even worse, what a slap in the chops.
>
> So no one should run for the leadership ?
I certainly think no one would be in with a shout.
https://twitter.com/tmorrissyswan/status/1124065702053388290?s=21
How does your calculation look if you measure it that way?
> I think the octupling of the Green coumncillor count deserves a bit more attention.
I agree Mr P
the big 2 parties have often been coalitions which have a vested interest in working together, Now that appears to be on the slide.
The tories are in danger of losing the shires to vested interests in London, the nation first to the internationalists the social conservatives to the social liberals
Labour are risking the Northern WWC to the Southern Middle Classes, Leavers to Remainers, traditional pragmatic Labour to left wing idealists,
Politics is in flux and we may well end up with large demographics shifting position away from the old tribal certainties to join a new tribe
P.S. Labour need a name change.
https://twitter.com/WearsideLibDem/status/1123899653668446208
https://twitter.com/WearsideLibDem/status/1123550474131705856
https://twitter.com/WearsideLibDem/status/1123300055329517569
https://twitter.com/WearsideLibDem/status/1122309327761682433
> Proportionate change in seat numbers, currently:
>
> UKIP (Uber Leave) -32%
> Con (Hard Leave) -26%
> Lab (Soft Leave) -6%
> LD (Remain) +109%
> Green (Remain) +500%
>
> Message is very clear - the UK now wants to Remain.
The country is still split, just as it was in 2016, but now seems less willing to compromise with itself.
These micro-parties are often well funded and utilise local-based social media as their main campaigning tool. They can get information out very quickly to large numbers of people within a concentrated area. It's an evolution of the LD "community politics" and is both political and apolitical at the same time - it functions as a political party but beyond the local so a supporter (as distinct from a member) of the Conservative, Labour or LD parties can support the micro-party locally while staying with their national party at Westminster elections.
> Just taking a look at the Broxtowe results.
>
>
>
> https://www.broxtowe.gov.uk/elections-overview/
>
> Tories retain one ward with 13%:
>
> https://www.broxtowe.gov.uk/elections-overview/attenborough-and-chilwell-east/
The way these results are reported is a bit peculiar. Ithink it's because they're multi-member wards. So if you're looking at party share you have to add up the percentages for all the candidates for that party.
LabourList
> > @malcolmg said:
> > New International Development Secretary Rory Stewart has said he intends to stand for the Conservative leadership after Theresa May steps down.
> >
> >
> >
> > Given he gets overlooked time and time again for a big job, supposed the only way to get one is via this route.
> >
> > He should take the hint and realise he is at least as crap as the rest of the donkeys, and given where he is the top brass think he is even worse, what a slap in the chops.
>
> What does this even mean? I'm not a Tory, but Stewart has been noticeably cooler under fire than most of the Cabinet and he has also demonstrated a much greater degree of loyalty. TBH the Tories could do a lot worse and in fact Stewart by being sane and loyal has actually earned his stripes. So don't let loathing of the Tories get in the way of a sober assessment of political reality.
I would imagine a Tory party led by Stewart would have a decent chance of getting my vote, not that that matters much. I can't think of any other of the expected contenders where that applies. Sane, loyal and pragmatic are underrated imo. Caveat would be still don't know much about his wider policy aims.
> https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1124239951246372864
Hardly surprising given both wings were able to spin the NEC decision their way
She unseated the old Labour councillor who'd been in place for years - an ugly bastard with only one X chromosome.
> https://twitter.com/krishgm/status/1124239449112629248
At least some of those Independents seem to be Leaver types, in places like Bolsolver.
> https://twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1124237419509891072
Not often I agree with the Nandy, but she's right. Or at least, it's not about Europe, it's about the likes of Ashfield and the Metropolitan values of the Labour Party becoming increasingly divergent. Northern leave votes are a symptom of this, but Europe is not the only issue here.
I suspect this is in part why they are trying to be ambiguous about Brexit.
> How the vote went in Moggsy own ward in NE Somerset
> LD 67%
> CON 28%
> LAB 5%
>
> The turnout was 54%
If that one wasn't a clear unambiguous anti-Brexit vote I don't know what is.
Apparently the first time since the 70s
> How much the LDs have benefitted from protest votes as opposed to a positive vote in their favour or low turnout as Labour and Tory voters stay away will be an interesting analysis. Probably need the Euro election results as well to make that judgement.
>
> Tory voters really alienated by May are voting LD as are Labour voters who don’t want Corbyn’s back to the future Marxism.
>
>
Presumably previous Tory voters voting LD are alienated by the ERG not May. The percentage of remain breaking Tories who couldnt live with the withdrawal agreement was pretty low, and not sure why leavers would be voting LD in significant numbers?
> > @MikeSmithson said:
> > How the vote went in Moggsy own ward in NE Somerset
> > LD 67%
> > CON 28%
> > LAB 5%
> >
> > The turnout was 54%
>
> If that one wasn't a clear unambiguous anti-Brexit vote I don't know what is.
I have a straw for you to clutch
> In 2017, a lot of Remain voters lent Labour their support to prevent the Tories winning. The overall message from yesterday's election results is that this is not going to happen again - and that replacement votes are not going to come from elsewhere. It's not all about Brexit, of course. In fact, Corbyn is probably a bigger problem. But the issues are linked. The only reason Labour has taken the position it has on Brexit is to accommodate its leader and the Morning Star Lexiteers who surround him.
If there was an Autumn general election with a hard Leaver like Boris in charge of the Tories campaigning for a mandate for a no backstop deal (and no deal if the EU wouldn't agree) and opinion polls gave him a chance of winning, then I think that Remainers might rally to voting Labour as the surest way to prevent that from happening under FPTP.
If a general election happens under different circumstances then I'd agree with you.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1124237419509891072
>
> Not often I agree with the Nandy, but she's right. Or at least, it's not about Europe, it's about the likes of Ashfield and the Metropolitan values of the Labour Party becoming increasingly divergent. Northern leave votes are a symptom of this, but Europe is not the only issue here.
>
Values diverging is a part of it, as is Europe, money, jobs and opportunity at least as important though.
> https://twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/status/1124181721774211072
Anna as gentle and forgiving as ever ). Broxtowe's results were pretty good for Labour and LibDems - Labour took two seats in the longstanding battleground of Chilwell West with a Corbynite topping the poll and came close in the perennially Tory Chilwell East. The ChUK independent in Kimberley (who works for ChUK MP Gavin Shuker), topped the poll (technically at Tory expense), though this is I think largely a personal vote - he's represented the ward forever. (Both Corbynite and ChUKist are friends of mine - Broxtowe is an amiable place.)
https://twitter.com/BBCRichardMoss/status/1124236547182690304?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1124236547182690304&ref_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-48131095
> > @nico67 said:
>
> > Labour are probably lucky these elections didn’t include places like London. Clearly their fence sitting and refusal to back a second vote in all circumstances would have seen heavier losses in pro EU areas .
>
>
>
> How do you work that out?
>
>
>
> Labour lost a whole bunch of councillors in Leave-voting Sunderland, but didn't lose any councillors in Remain-voting Cambridge.
>
> And did well in Remain voting Trafford due to gentrification of previously working class parts of the borough with Corbynite luvvies...
>
> P.S. Labour need a name change.
The revolutionary anti semitic party?
> A poor night for Labour in St Helens. I stuck to my strict political principles of voting for the best looking one who had two X chromosomes per cell, and wasn't a Green.
>
> She unseated the old Labour councillor who'd been in place for years - an ugly bastard with only one X chromosome.
Are you sure the candidate isn't Trans?
Let's have Rees Mogg out of a seat please.
Crumb of comfort for the blues - it's not 1995. However I expect them to coalesce around Boris with the remainers fleeing to Change or the twitching zombie corpse of the LDs
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0074yz8
This is all anecdotal (but might represent a significant chunk of 2017 Labour voters), but I wasn't surprised by Labour doing better than expected in 2017 because I knew loads of people who were very enthusiastic about Corbyn. They were often people who hadn't voted before/for a long time and I could imagine were difficult for pollsters to capture. Some were motivated to get back on the electoral roll because of the 2016 referendum, all seemed to be enthusiastic about Corbyn's honesty, integrity, principles and lack of spin, nearly all were strongly anti-brexit.
They seem (going by social media posts and conversations) to be very anti-Corbyn now and are not voting Labour and won't in a general election (maybe a commitment to a 2nd referendum would bring some back, but it might be too late now). Some (eg my mum, who's 79) joined Labour because of Corbyn, and have now left Labour because of Corbyn.
It's not just that they are disappointed with Labour's Brexit policy (or lack of it), it's also that Corbyn is seen as having been hypocritical and dishonest over the biggest issue that he has influence over, and so his personal appeal of integrity etc has been trashed. Additionally, because of this (I'm speculating here), people who might have been willing to give him the benefit of the doubt over anti-semitism now don't.
Long story short: 2 years ago my timeline was full of very enthusiastic Corbyn supporters, now mostly anti. If Corbyn is leader at the next general election I think Labour will do badly, probably worse than most people seem to expect at the moment. Their only chance is if the Conservatives do even worse (which is always possible).
Con -433
Lab -85
https://election.news.sky.com/england-local-council-elections-26
> Clearly a good night for the Lib Dems - a torrid one for the Tories and a disappointing one for Labour. But the other significant growth is the rise of 'Independents' - proportionately even more impressive than the Lib Dems - anyone know how these break down? I'm sure its not all 'Residents Association' (small 'c' Conservatives) - who else? Plays to the 'plague on both/ all your houses'.....
>
> As you say, "Independent" covers a multitude of sins. The days of the go-it-alone Independent are over - modern politics doesn't work that way. Instead, we've seen the rise of what I prefer to call micro-parties, groups coalescing around local identities and issues (mainly housing) which have a direct impact. The Oxted & Limpsfield Residents Group in Tandridge has been hugely successful and won more seats last night while there are a couple of village-based micro-parties in Guildford which may have won seats.
>
> These micro-parties are often well funded and utilise local-based social media as their main campaigning tool. They can get information out very quickly to large numbers of people within a concentrated area. It's an evolution of the LD "community politics" and is both political and apolitical at the same time - it functions as a political party but beyond the local so a supporter (as distinct from a member) of the Conservative, Labour or LD parties can support the micro-party locally while staying with their national party at Westminster elections.
In Guildford we have two independent groups. It is all to do with the local plan and they are very anti the Conservative administration, but not because they are Conservatives, just because of the incompetence, arrogance and what appears to be some 'interesting' stuff re the local plan. One of the groups was formed by a mix of councillors from both the Tory and LD group. This group ranges in political views significantly, but are all agreed on what they think of the local plan.
> https://twitter.com/krishgm/status/1124239449112629248
People are clearly protesting against Con and Lab... But should probably wait and see how the Brexit Party do in the EU elections before drawing too many conclusions about Brexit.
> I've no idea about the politics of the independent I voted for. But she passed the onerous physical tests.
>
>
She wasn't the one who lost her deposit...
Let he without sin cast the first stone
> Yeah, all those Sunderland voters suddenly want a second referendum do they? Laughable. I think it's more likely they want the first one respected.
>
> https://twitter.com/BBCRichardMoss/status/1124236547182690304?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1124236547182690304&ref_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-48131095
>
>
We are in a totally shambolic state in places like Sunderland. I haven't a clue how we get out of this mess.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/krishgm/status/1124239449112629248
>
> People are clearly protesting again Con and Lab... But should probably wait and see how the Brexit Party do in the EU elections before drawing too many conclusions about Brexit.
Would agree. Those drawing entirely remain narratives from low turnout local elections in parts of the country will presumably report on a seismic shift in the nation's outlook in a mere 3 week period. It's more complicated than people like Krishnan think and Nandy is probably closest to the mark.
> > @stodge said:
> > Clearly a good night for the Lib Dems - a torrid one for the Tories and a disappointing one for Labour. But the other significant growth is the rise of 'Independents' - proportionately even more impressive than the Lib Dems - anyone know how these break down? I'm sure its not all 'Residents Association' (small 'c' Conservatives) - who else? Plays to the 'plague on both/ all your houses'.....
> >
> > As you say, "Independent" covers a multitude of sins. The days of the go-it-alone Independent are over - modern politics doesn't work that way. Instead, we've seen the rise of what I prefer to call micro-parties, groups coalescing around local identities and issues (mainly housing) which have a direct impact. The Oxted & Limpsfield Residents Group in Tandridge has been hugely successful and won more seats last night while there are a couple of village-based micro-parties in Guildford which may have won seats.
> >
> > These micro-parties are often well funded and utilise local-based social media as their main campaigning tool. They can get information out very quickly to large numbers of people within a concentrated area. It's an evolution of the LD "community politics" and is both political and apolitical at the same time - it functions as a political party but beyond the local so a supporter (as distinct from a member) of the Conservative, Labour or LD parties can support the micro-party locally while staying with their national party at Westminster elections.
>
> In Guildford we have two independent groups. It is all to do with the local plan and they are very anti the Conservative administration, but not because they are Conservatives, just because of the incompetence, arrogance and what appears to be some 'interesting' stuff re the local plan. One of the groups was formed by a mix of councillors from both the Tory and LD group. This group ranges in political views significantly, but are all agreed on what they think of the local plan.
I hope there will be carnage here. I suspect the neighbouring Mole Valley Tories won't be sorry to see the Guildford Tories disappear either and come back in a different form as where the wards overlap the Mole Valley Tories views are more in line with the Independents.
> Presumably previous Tory voters voting LD are alienated by the ERG not May.
>
> I wouldn't be too sure. It's quite possible to have liked Cameron but to find May's personality and her little-Englander rhetoric a turn-off.
I would put myself in that category, though I find it difficult to forgive his stupid decision to go for a simplistic binary referendum
> Wow, clear late night horror for the blues! Minus 1000 looks on, LD plus 700?
> Let's have Rees Mogg out of a seat please.
> Crumb of comfort for the blues - it's not 1995. However I expect them to coalesce around Boris with the remainers fleeing to Change or the twitching zombie corpse of the LDs
I've been saying Con would lose 1000 seats in these local elections...
> This election result doesn't really change my take on labour's prospects.
>
> This is all anecdotal (but might represent a significant chunk of 2017 Labour voters), but I wasn't surprised by Labour doing better than expected in 2017 because I knew loads of people who were very enthusiastic about Corbyn. They were often people who hadn't voted before/for a long time and I could imagine were difficult for pollsters to capture. Some were motivated to get back on the electoral roll because of the 2016 referendum, all seemed to be enthusiastic about Corbyn's honesty, integrity, principles and lack of spin, nearly all were strongly anti-brexit.
>
> They seem (going by social media posts and conversations) to be very anti-Corbyn now and are not voting Labour and won't in a general election (maybe a commitment to a 2nd referendum would bring some back, but it might be too late now). Some (eg my mum, who's 79) joined Labour because of Corbyn, and have now left Labour because of Corbyn.
>
> It's not just that they are disappointed with Labour's Brexit policy (or lack of it), it's also that Corbyn is seen as having been hypocritical and dishonest over the biggest issue that he has influence over, and so his personal appeal of integrity etc has been trashed. Additionally, because of this (I'm speculating here), people who might have been willing to give him the benefit of the doubt over anti-semitism now don't.
>
> Long story short: 2 years ago my timeline was full of very enthusiastic Corbyn supporters, now mostly anti. If Corbyn is leader at the next general election I think Labour will do badly, probably worse than most people seem to expect at the moment. Their only chance is if the Conservatives do even worse (which is always possible).
Corbyn has been a Euro-sceptic for his entire political career. If people couldn't be bothered to find that out, that's their mistake. They shouldn't be disappointed by it.
> Presumably previous Tory voters voting LD are alienated by the ERG not May.
>
> I wouldn't be too sure. It's quite possible to have liked Cameron but to find May's personality and her little-Englander rhetoric a turn-off.
On low turnouts it is likely that in 2015 many LD "voters" didn't vote and in 2019 many tory "voters" didn't vote. The actual number of switchers could be very low.
> Presumably previous Tory voters voting LD are alienated by the ERG not May.
>
> I wouldn't be too sure. It's quite possible to have liked Cameron but to find May's personality and her little-Englander rhetoric a turn-off.
Even i voted for the Lib dems where i could.,... not easy when in one election there was 1 LD and about 8/9 tories (I think that was the parish one rather than the borough one though