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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LDs – putting the coalition years behind them

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  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    > @isam said:

    > > @isam said:

    >

    > > Ooh look what popped through my letterbox this morning

    >

    >

    >

    > Their canvassing database is a bit raggy if it doesn't have you down as a sure thing.

    >

    > Wouldn’t they think I might vote UKIP?



    Oh, I thought you'd joined BP?

    No I just didn’t renew the UKIP membership
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    First LD gain in Sheffield. A ward Labour won by 20% last year
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
    > > @AndreaParma_82 said:
    > > https://twitter.com/JohnMannMP/status/1124247290661752832
    >
    > eh? first results look similar to the national picture

    Far as I can see couple of Cons have gone Ind.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Yesterday I checked who the MEPs for my London constituency are. Sadly, no Lib Dem MEP but a Green one. (And that ghastly Batten character.). So I will vote, I think, Green in the euros.

    BTW I have just heard the Durufle Requiem for the first time. A big shout out to whoever mentioned it in here last night. Quite superb.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,167
    edited May 2019
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    > @Cyclefree said:
    > > @DavidL said:
    > > > @FrancisUrquhart said:
    > > > New International Development Secretary Rory Stewart has said he intends to stand for the Conservative leadership after Theresa May steps down.
    > > >
    > > > Given he gets overlooked time and time again for a big job, supposed the only way to get one is via this route.
    > >
    > > That almost makes me want to join the party. Almost.
    >
    > Having a PM from Cumbria would be nice.

    Didn’t work out so well for Farron when he tried.
  • It seems to me that Labour now has a bigger problem than the Tories on Brexit. Tories are pretty much in favour of Brexit - both MPs and supporters. They just need to make it happen. Labour is split down the middle among its MPs and although a majority of the membership supports remain a substantial majority want to leave. Corbyn - to give him credit - managed to sit on the fence successfully up until now but these results have emphatically tipped him off.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,888

    > @Sunil_Prasannan said:

    > > @Sunil_Prasannan said:

    >

    > > LibDems did well last night, congrats! I actually voted LD in two GEs, 2001 (Ilford N) and 2005 (Cambridge), plus Cambridge locals 2005-07, while I was working there.

    >

    >

    >

    > Brave of you to come out of the closet.

    >

    > Oh, I mentioned it on PB, albeit some years ago! Did you know I voted UKIP at the Euros in 2014? My only flirtation with the Purples!



    So it is a toss-up between Brexit Party and ChUK for you this year?

    Well I do like Heidi Allen, but such a pity she's no longer a Tory!

    *conflicted*
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,355
    > @Cyclefree said:
    > > @DavidL said:
    > > > @FrancisUrquhart said:
    > > > New International Development Secretary Rory Stewart has said he intends to stand for the Conservative leadership after Theresa May steps down.
    > > >
    > > > Given he gets overlooked time and time again for a big job, supposed the only way to get one is via this route.
    > >
    > > That almost makes me want to join the party. Almost.
    >
    > Having a PM from Cumbria would be nice.

    Great. And move Parliament to Barrow-in-Furness. The area needs the employment and London needs the spece.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352

    > @isam said:

    > > @isam said:

    >

    > > Ooh look what popped through my letterbox this morning

    >

    >

    >

    > Their canvassing database is a bit raggy if it doesn't have you down as a sure thing.

    >

    > Wouldn’t they think I might vote UKIP?



    Oh, I thought you'd joined BP?

    You can’t join TBP...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Lab gain Amber Valley
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Cyclefree said:

    Yesterday I checked who the MEPs for my London constituency are. Sadly, no Lib Dem MEP but a Green one. (And that ghastly Batten character.). So I will vote, I think, Green in the euros.



    BTW I have just heard the Durufle Requiem for the first time. A big shout out to whoever mentioned it in here last night. Quite superb.

    Yay! My presence here on PB has been of some use to someone. :smiley:

    On topic: very big LD gain (from Con) in one of our local wards most affected by house-building. Backs up Sebastian Payne's theory on Twitter that planning is actually the unspoken big issue in these elections... so maybe Nick Boles has unwittingly been an architect of the Tories' misfortunes.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    I would not want to be a cleaner at the Guardian today.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,267
    edited May 2019
    .

    Try again...
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    > @AmpfieldAndy said:
    > > @Cyclefree said:
    > > > @DavidL said:
    > > > > @FrancisUrquhart said:
    > > > > New International Development Secretary Rory Stewart has said he intends to stand for the Conservative leadership after Theresa May steps down.
    > > > >
    > > > > Given he gets overlooked time and time again for a big job, supposed the only way to get one is via this route.
    > > >
    > > > That almost makes me want to join the party. Almost.
    > >
    > > Having a PM from Cumbria would be nice.
    >
    > Didn’t work out so well for Farron when he tried.

    Stewart has been practically the only Tory MP talking calmly and sensibly about a way forward, despite him voting Remain and, crucially, to my mind anyway, has been the only Tory MP who has talked about trying to heal divisions and trying to reach a consensus rather than moving to one extreme.

    That is more than many in the Cabinet have done or even tried to do.

    And having someone with a constituency (his is on the unfashionable West Coast of Cumbria next to where we are, not the dinky Beatrix Potter bit of the Lakes) far away from metropolitan areas might actually give him a valuable perspective.

    His judgment of Johnson is witheringly dismissive and accurate too.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,888

    > @Cyclefree said:

    > > @DavidL said:

    > > > @FrancisUrquhart said:

    > > > New International Development Secretary Rory Stewart has said he intends to stand for the Conservative leadership after Theresa May steps down.

    > > >

    > > > Given he gets overlooked time and time again for a big job, supposed the only way to get one is via this route.

    > >

    > > That almost makes me want to join the party. Almost.

    >

    > Having a PM from Cumbria would be nice.



    Great. And move Parliament to Barrow-in-Furness. The area needs the employment and London needs the spece.

    Barrow used to be in Lancashire!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042
    > @rottenborough said:
    > Lab gain Amber Valley

    That result sounds counter-intuitive.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    > @Peter_the_Punter said:
    > > @Cyclefree said:
    > > > @DavidL said:
    > > > > @FrancisUrquhart said:
    > > > > New International Development Secretary Rory Stewart has said he intends to stand for the Conservative leadership after Theresa May steps down.
    > > > >
    > > > > Given he gets overlooked time and time again for a big job, supposed the only way to get one is via this route.
    > > >
    > > > That almost makes me want to join the party. Almost.
    > >
    > > Having a PM from Cumbria would be nice.
    >
    > Great. And move Parliament to Barrow-in-Furness. The area needs the employment and London needs the spece.

    Yep - agree with that. Plus the MPs will find out how lovely this area is and how much is going on and might actually do something about the problems which do exist.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    > @TheKingofLangley said:
    > It seems to me that Labour now has a bigger problem than the Tories on Brexit. Tories are pretty much in favour of Brexit - both MPs and supporters. They just need to make it happen. Labour is split down the middle among its MPs and although a majority of the membership supports remain a substantial majority want to leave. Corbyn - to give him credit - managed to sit on the fence successfully up until now but these results have emphatically tipped him off.

    Not so much split down the middle, but split down the extreme left. It is a tragedy of extreme proprtions for the country that we have such a left wing thicko of a LOTO at a time like this. The country needs a Blair without the warmongering tendency.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,006
    edited May 2019
    > @brokenwheel said:
    > You can’t join TBP...

    What's the difference between being a member and a registered supporter? Is it some kind of fudge to get round electoral rules?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,355
    > @Cyclefree said:
    > > @Peter_the_Punter said:
    > > > @Cyclefree said:
    > > > > @DavidL said:
    > > > > > @FrancisUrquhart said:
    > > > > > New International Development Secretary Rory Stewart has said he intends to stand for the Conservative leadership after Theresa May steps down.
    > > > > >
    > > > > > Given he gets overlooked time and time again for a big job, supposed the only way to get one is via this route.
    > > > >
    > > > > That almost makes me want to join the party. Almost.
    > > >
    > > > Having a PM from Cumbria would be nice.
    > >
    > > Great. And move Parliament to Barrow-in-Furness. The area needs the employment and London needs the spece.
    >
    > Yep - agree with that. Plus the MPs will find out how lovely this area is and how much is going on and might actually do something about the problems which do exist.

    Nor will it be quite so easy for them to 'lunch' with journalists in posh restaurants. The upsides are endless.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    > @SandyRentool said:
    > > @rottenborough said:
    > > Lab gain Amber Valley
    >
    > That result sounds counter-intuitive.

    Yep.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,355
    > @SandyRentool said:
    > > @rottenborough said:
    > > Lab gain Amber Valley
    >
    > That result sounds counter-intuitive.

    Yes, shouldn't it be Orange...or Green?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    > @El_Capitano said:
    > Yesterday I checked who the MEPs for my London constituency are. Sadly, no Lib Dem MEP but a Green one. (And that ghastly Batten character.). So I will vote, I think, Green in the euros.
    >
    >
    >
    > BTW I have just heard the Durufle Requiem for the first time. A big shout out to whoever mentioned it in here last night. Quite superb.
    >
    > Yay! My presence here on PB has been of some use to someone. :smiley:
    >
    > On topic: very big LD gain (from Con) in one of our local wards most affected by house-building. Backs up Sebastian Payne's theory on Twitter that planning is actually the unspoken big issue in these elections... so maybe Nick Boles has unwittingly been an architect of the Tories' misfortunes.

    It certainly has! The Castagnet Mass for me next. I love hearing about new pieces of music.

    In return, try the Allegri Miserere. First time I heard it in a church in Venice I thought I'd died and gone to heaven. (Though you probably already know it.)
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    > @brokenwheel said:

    > You can’t join TBP...



    What's the difference between being a member and a registered supporter? Is it some kind of fudge to get round electoral rules?

    The Brexit Party is like the RAC used to be - membership is restricted to an elite (chums of Nigel). Anyone, however, can be a registered supporter.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,267
    edited May 2019
    > Elitist snob.
    >
    > Imagine some of the comments people make on here were said in person on national tv.
    >
    > Let he without sin cast the first stone

    Lost the blockquotes, but this is funny.

    https://us.v-cdn.net/5020679/uploads/editor/cr/qdu5q3sxfvd2.jpeg

    Gina Miller was lightened by the Times, not darkened by the Sun.

    https://metro.co.uk/2016/11/04/the-sun-didnt-actually-darken-brexit-challenger-gina-millers-skin-6235941/

    A perfect illustration of kneejerk reactions by some people obsessed with Murdoch.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    > @Cyclefree said:
    > > @AmpfieldAndy said:
    > > > @Cyclefree said:
    > > > > @DavidL said:
    > > > > > @FrancisUrquhart said:
    > > > > > New International Development Secretary Rory Stewart has said he intends to stand for the Conservative leadership after Theresa May steps down.
    > > > > >
    > > > > > Given he gets overlooked time and time again for a big job, supposed the only way to get one is via this route.
    > > > >
    > > > > That almost makes me want to join the party. Almost.
    > > >
    > > > Having a PM from Cumbria would be nice.
    > >
    > > Didn’t work out so well for Farron when he tried.
    >
    > Stewart has been practically the only Tory MP talking calmly and sensibly about a way forward, despite him voting Remain and, crucially, to my mind anyway, has been the only Tory MP who has talked about trying to heal divisions and trying to reach a consensus rather than moving to one extreme.
    >
    > That is more than many in the Cabinet have done or even tried to do.
    >
    > And having someone with a constituency (his is on the unfashionable West Coast of Cumbria next to where we are, not the dinky Beatrix Potter bit of the Lakes) far away from metropolitan areas might actually give him a valuable perspective.
    >
    > His judgment of Johnson is witheringly dismissive and accurate too.

    Stewart is a fully paid up member of May’s BRINO policy as far as I can see with no clue how to proceed post Brexit. Impressive CV outside politics but nothing as a MP. He is a May loyalist and look what’s that done to the Tories.

    There are a fair few of us who don’t want Johnson but don’t want someone like Stewart either.

    Sadly, I rather like the Lake District - best part of the U.K. imo.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710
    That's the great thing about elections, particularly local council ones. The numbers don't lie but they settle precisely 0 arguments.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537
    > @rottenborough said:
    > Lab gain Amber Valley

    Adds to the confusing picture - Amber Valley is ex-Notts coalfield and solidly WWC Leave. It's next to Broxtowe, where Labour also did well.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    One thing we can all agree on. UKIP are finished
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited May 2019
    > @TheKingofLangley said:
    > It seems to me that Labour now has a bigger problem than the Tories on Brexit. Tories are pretty much in favour of Brexit - both MPs and supporters. They just need to make it happen.

    I don't think the problems for the Tories will end if they manage to make Brexit happen. Too many are now ready to trash any Brexit as the wrong Brexit and any detail in respect to our relationship with the EU will split open the divide between Pragmatists and Purists all over again.

    There will be no end to it.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited May 2019
    > @NickPalmer said:
    > > @rottenborough said:
    > > Lab gain Amber Valley
    >
    > Adds to the confusing picture - Amber Valley is ex-Notts coalfield and solidly WWC Leave. It's next to Broxtowe, where Labour also did well.

    One seat changed hands. Labour are also only defending one seat here. It's not remotely confusing. It's one ward.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    The hits are coming thick and fast for Mrs May's bedraggled Con party loyalists now and over the next few hours as the losses are starting to rack up in an ugly way.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    > @CarlottaVance said:
    > Oh dear......
    >
    > https://twitter.com/jameschappers/status/1124217508863647745

    Starting to think Keir Starmer won't be defecting...
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    > @Peter_the_Punter said:
    > > @Cyclefree said:
    > > > @Peter_the_Punter said:
    > > > > @Cyclefree said:
    > > > > > @DavidL said:
    > > > > > > @FrancisUrquhart said:
    > > > > > > New International Development Secretary Rory Stewart has said he intends to stand for the Conservative leadership after Theresa May steps down.
    > > > > > >
    > > > > > > Given he gets overlooked time and time again for a big job, supposed the only way to get one is via this route.
    > > > > >
    > > > > > That almost makes me want to join the party. Almost.
    > > > >
    > > > > Having a PM from Cumbria would be nice.
    > > >
    > > > Great. And move Parliament to Barrow-in-Furness. The area needs the employment and London needs the spece.
    > >
    > > Yep - agree with that. Plus the MPs will find out how lovely this area is and how much is going on and might actually do something about the problems which do exist.
    >
    > Nor will it be quite so easy for them to 'lunch' with journalists in posh restaurants. The upsides are endless.

    Though, to be fair, this is one area which is blessed with good restaurants and pubs.

    Years ago during the credit crisis I and a friend, also from the area, had the idea of a satire on the finance world, involving a Goldman Sachs-style bank being taken over by The Millom and Furness Building Society (one branch, early closing on Wednesday) with US bankers having to enjoy the delights of Walney Airport, sponsoring the local farm animal shows and eating their egg and chips in the local cafe. We had all sorts of characters written up. I'm sure with a tweak it could be adapted for politicians.

    Copyright: Cyclefree.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384
    > @CarlottaVance said:
    > Oh dear......
    >
    > https://twitter.com/jameschappers/status/1124217508863647745

    Did he discover that when the Greeks were torturing him at the behest of the UK government?
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited May 2019

    > @brokenwheel said:

    > You can’t join TBP...



    What's the difference between being a member and a registered supporter? Is it some kind of fudge to get round electoral rules?

    As Meeks said above.

    A supporter is just a fee-paying groupie with no real say over the party. Though to be fair the same could be said of Conservative members.

    Basically Farage is in favour of democracy as long as it’s not internal party democracy...
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Cyclefree said:

    In return, try the Allegri Miserere. First time I heard it in a church in Venice I thought I'd died and gone to heaven. (Though you probably already know it.)

    I do but it bears repeating. It is indeed beautiful - a very accomplished local choir sang it in our church the other month. That soprano top C though...!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    MattW said:

    > Elitist snob.

    >

    > Imagine some of the comments people make on here were said in person on national tv.

    >

    > Let he without sin cast the first stone



    Lost the blockquotes, but this is funny.



    https://us.v-cdn.net/5020679/uploads/editor/cr/qdu5q3sxfvd2.jpeg



    Gina Miller was lightened by the Times, not darkened by the Sun.



    https://metro.co.uk/2016/11/04/the-sun-didnt-actually-darken-brexit-challenger-gina-millers-skin-6235941/



    A perfect illustration of kneejerk reactions by some people obsessed with Murdoch.

    A sorry tale
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    > @CarlottaVance said:
    > Oh dear......
    >
    > https://twitter.com/jameschappers/status/1124217508863647745

    Lol, the Russians under every bed distraction
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Local anonymous Twitter account (generally believed to be run by an unnamed councillor) is predicting Labour will win Chipping Norton.

    If true, that's a symbolic end to the Cameron era.

    Have you been to Chipping Norton? If Labour win there the world we have known has ended.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042
    > @Nigel_Foremain said:
    > > @TheKingofLangley said:
    > > It seems to me that Labour now has a bigger problem than the Tories on Brexit. Tories are pretty much in favour of Brexit - both MPs and supporters. They just need to make it happen. Labour is split down the middle among its MPs and although a majority of the membership supports remain a substantial majority want to leave. Corbyn - to give him credit - managed to sit on the fence successfully up until now but these results have emphatically tipped him off.
    >
    > Not so much split down the middle, but split down the extreme left. It is a tragedy of extreme proprtions for the country that we have such a left wing thicko of a LOTO at a time like this. The country needs a Blair without the warmongering tendency.

    That isn't where Labour's split is, and it predates Jezza. There is a total disconnect between the Guardianista, hand-wringing luvvie Labour and the folk down the Working Men's Club. It it getting harder and harder to keep everyone inside the broad church that is Labour. I wish I could offer a solution.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    > @AmpfieldAndy said:
    > > @Cyclefree said:
    > > > @AmpfieldAndy said:
    > > > > @Cyclefree said:
    > > > > > @DavidL said:
    > > > > > > @FrancisUrquhart said:
    > > > > > > New International Development Secretary Rory Stewart has said he intends to stand for the Conservative leadership after Theresa May steps down.
    > > > > > >
    > > > > > > Given he gets overlooked time and time again for a big job, supposed the only way to get one is via this route.
    > > > > >
    > > > > > That almost makes me want to join the party. Almost.
    > > > >
    > > > > Having a PM from Cumbria would be nice.
    > > >
    > > > Didn’t work out so well for Farron when he tried.
    > >
    > > Stewart has been practically the only Tory MP talking calmly and sensibly about a way forward, despite him voting Remain and, crucially, to my mind anyway, has been the only Tory MP who has talked about trying to heal divisions and trying to reach a consensus rather than moving to one extreme.
    > >
    > > That is more than many in the Cabinet have done or even tried to do.
    > >
    > > And having someone with a constituency (his is on the unfashionable West Coast of Cumbria next to where we are, not the dinky Beatrix Potter bit of the Lakes) far away from metropolitan areas might actually give him a valuable perspective.
    > >
    > > His judgment of Johnson is witheringly dismissive and accurate too.
    >
    > Stewart is a fully paid up member of May’s BRINO policy as far as I can see with no clue how to proceed post Brexit. Impressive CV outside politics but nothing as a MP. He is a May loyalist and look what’s that done to the Tories.
    >
    > There are a fair few of us who don’t want Johnson but don’t want someone like Stewart either.
    >
    > Sadly, I rather like the Lake District - best part of the U.K. imo.

    It certainly is. But why the "sadly" then?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,888
    Yeah, I remember being brainwashed by Moscow's dastardly mind-control ray even as I voted in the polling booth!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    > @TheKingofLangley said:
    > It seems to me that Labour now has a bigger problem than the Tories on Brexit. Tories are pretty much in favour of Brexit - both MPs and supporters. They just need to make it happen. Labour is split down the middle among its MPs and although a majority of the membership supports remain a substantial majority want to leave. Corbyn - to give him credit - managed to sit on the fence successfully up until now but these results have emphatically tipped him off.

    About half of those who poll for Con on the Euros are pro Remain, so a fair chunk of the electorate. I see CHUK under Heidi Allen more as a Heathite Tory party, and could appeal to many of these, particularly if May's successor is a headbanger.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    There's an alternative history where Farage didn't abandon UKIP to the street thugs but managed to hold it together for a couple of difficult years and would then have been in a really strong position to make massive gains in these local elections.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Labour already hold 2 out of 3 Cllrs in Chipping Norton

    > @Recidivist said:
    > Local anonymous Twitter account (generally believed to be run by an unnamed councillor) is predicting Labour will win Chipping Norton.
    >
    > If true, that's a symbolic end to the Cameron era.
    >
    > Have you been to Chipping Norton? If Labour win there the world we have known has ended.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042
    > @dyedwoolie said:
    > One thing we can all agree on. UKIP are finished

    Have you looked at the ward results in Sunderland?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    edited May 2019
    Redlands goes Green, while Amber Valley goes red...

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1124260469999579138?s=19
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    > @El_Capitano said:
    > Yesterday I checked who the MEPs for my London constituency are. Sadly, no Lib Dem MEP but a Green one. (And that ghastly Batten character.). So I will vote, I think, Green in the euros.
    >
    >
    >
    > BTW I have just heard the Durufle Requiem for the first time. A big shout out to whoever mentioned it in here last night. Quite superb.
    >
    > Yay! My presence here on PB has been of some use to someone. :smiley:
    >
    > On topic: very big LD gain (from Con) in one of our local wards most affected by house-building. Backs up Sebastian Payne's theory on Twitter that planning is actually the unspoken big issue in these elections... so maybe Nick Boles has unwittingly been an architect of the Tories' misfortunes.

    Sounds about right. Made a similar point on an earlier thread.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    > @AmpfieldAndy said:
    > > @Cyclefree said:
    > > > @AmpfieldAndy said:
    > > > > @Cyclefree said:
    > > > > > @DavidL said:
    > > > > > > @FrancisUrquhart said:
    > > > > > > New International Development Secretary Rory Stewart has said he intends to stand for the Conservative leadership after Theresa May steps down.
    > > > > > >
    > > > > > > Given he gets overlooked time and time again for a big job, supposed the only way to get one is via this route.
    > > > > >
    > > > > > That almost makes me want to join the party. Almost.
    > > > >
    > > > > Having a PM from Cumbria would be nice.
    > > >
    > > > Didn’t work out so well for Farron when he tried.
    > >
    > > Stewart has been practically the only Tory MP talking calmly and sensibly about a way forward, despite him voting Remain and, crucially, to my mind anyway, has been the only Tory MP who has talked about trying to heal divisions and trying to reach a consensus rather than moving to one extreme.
    > >
    > > That is more than many in the Cabinet have done or even tried to do.
    > >
    > > And having someone with a constituency (his is on the unfashionable West Coast of Cumbria next to where we are, not the dinky Beatrix Potter bit of the Lakes) far away from metropolitan areas might actually give him a valuable perspective.
    > >
    > > His judgment of Johnson is witheringly dismissive and accurate too.
    >
    > Stewart is a fully paid up member of May’s BRINO policy as far as I can see with no clue how to proceed post Brexit. Impressive CV outside politics but nothing as a MP. He is a May loyalist and look what’s that done to the Tories.
    >
    > There are a fair few of us who don’t want Johnson but don’t want someone like Stewart either.
    >
    > Sadly, I rather like the Lake District - best part of the U.K. imo.


    I don't think Stewart has any following - and may be a bit too cerebral for the cut and thrust these day - so doubt he will get anywhere. But he might make a good senior Cabinet Minister, who knows.

    But by comparison with twits and liars like Johnson or Leadsom or some of the others he is worth looking at.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352

    Local anonymous Twitter account (generally believed to be run by an unnamed councillor) is predicting Labour will win Chipping Norton.

    If true, that's a symbolic end to the Cameron era.

    Have you been to Chipping Norton? If Labour win there the world we have known has ended.
    Not really, just speaks to the change in the Labour electorate.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    > @SandyRentool said:
    > > @dyedwoolie said:
    > > One thing we can all agree on. UKIP are finished
    >
    > Have you looked at the ward results in Sunderland?

    Where else have the kippers done well?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Local anonymous Twitter account (generally believed to be run by an unnamed councillor) is predicting Labour will win Chipping Norton.

    If true, that's a symbolic end to the Cameron era.

    Have you been to Chipping Norton? If Labour win there the world we have known has ended.
    Its changing......

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/12/conservatives-lost-home-counties-influx-young-people-london-south-east
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    There's an alternative history where Farage didn't abandon UKIP to the street thugs but managed to hold it together for a couple of difficult years and would then have been in a really strong position to make massive gains in these local elections.

    Farage effctively sold UKIP at the top of the market and has bought back in at the low
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    > @SandyRentool said:
    > > @dyedwoolie said:
    > > One thing we can all agree on. UKIP are finished
    >
    > Have you looked at the ward results in Sunderland?

    They had F all and have lost most of it. They are done once Farages lot starts standing
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,888

    > @dyedwoolie said:

    > One thing we can all agree on. UKIP are finished



    Have you looked at the ward results in Sunderland?

    Nationally, they lost over 50 seats...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Green gain from Lab in St Helens.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    > @OblitusSumMe said:
    > There's an alternative history where Farage didn't abandon UKIP to the street thugs but managed to hold it together for a couple of difficult years and would then have been in a really strong position to make massive gains in these local elections.

    UKIP would have become too tarnished, even if he'd remained, to see the sort of polling numbers the Brexit Party are now enjoying. Part of the BP's appeal is that they are very new and have no baggage - two things UKIP can't claim.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,847
    > @NickPalmer said:
    > > @rottenborough said:
    > > Lab gain Amber Valley
    >
    > Adds to the confusing picture - Amber Valley is ex-Notts coalfield and solidly WWC Leave. It's next to Broxtowe, where Labour also did well.

    Nick! Really! Amber Valley is Derbyshire!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384
    > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
    > > @dyedwoolie said:
    >
    > > One thing we can all agree on. UKIP are finished
    >
    >
    >
    > Have you looked at the ward results in Sunderland?
    >
    > Nationally, they lost over 50 seats...

    Quite a lot of ex-UKIP councillors are getting re-elected either as part of breakaway parties, or as independents (eg Thurrock Independents).
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,006
    > @KentRising said:
    > > @OblitusSumMe said:
    > > There's an alternative history where Farage didn't abandon UKIP to the street thugs but managed to hold it together for a couple of difficult years and would then have been in a really strong position to make massive gains in these local elections.
    >
    > UKIP would have become too tarnished, even if he'd remained, to see the sort of polling numbers the Brexit Party are now enjoying. Part of the BP's appeal is that they are very new and have no baggage - two things UKIP can't claim.

    Apart from BP candidates' own baggage (which I accept is fairly irrelevant in the Euros).
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    > @Foxy said:
    > > @SandyRentool said:
    > > > @dyedwoolie said:
    > > > One thing we can all agree on. UKIP are finished
    > >
    > > Have you looked at the ward results in Sunderland?
    >
    > Where else have the kippers done well?

    Kippers were done before yesterday - they couldn't put up enough candidates to be relevant.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,267
    edited May 2019
    > @NickPalmer said:
    > > @rottenborough said:
    > > Lab gain Amber Valley
    >
    > Adds to the confusing picture - Amber Valley is ex-Notts coalfield and solidly WWC Leave. It's next to Broxtowe, where Labour also did well.

    As a local, I would say that that is to do with changing commuter patterns.

    Broxtowe goes a long way into the suburbs of Nottingham eg Beeston-Wollaton (small city, Nottingham). The trams and light rail go well beyond that.

    Amber Valley ... not so sure, but it includes Belper which has been moving from industry to commuter/tourism for years. Nice place with reasonably priced houses, and the Derwent Valley Mills World Heritage stuff.

    Even the S end of Ashfield - Hucknall, is now turning into part of commuter Nottingham, and that has kicked Labour out pretty thoroughly. My (biased) opinion is that may have to do with too many Corbynista nut-jobs emerging, and perhaps the recent casual racism problems of the Lab Mayoral candidate for Mansfield. Plus Pavement Politics.

    AI leaflet: "Labour spent £3 million making your bins smaller."

    For the record, I do not know whether the Ashfield Indies are pro-Brexit or not, but they are from ex-LibDem stock and the Head Honcho is the Lib Dem Candidate who came within a whisker of removing Gloria in 2010.

    In 2017 it was the Tory who was as close.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    > @SandyRentool said:
    > > @Nigel_Foremain said:
    > > > @TheKingofLangley said:
    > > > It seems to me that Labour now has a bigger problem than the Tories on Brexit. Tories are pretty much in favour of Brexit - both MPs and supporters. They just need to make it happen. Labour is split down the middle among its MPs and although a majority of the membership supports remain a substantial majority want to leave. Corbyn - to give him credit - managed to sit on the fence successfully up until now but these results have emphatically tipped him off.
    > >
    > > Not so much split down the middle, but split down the extreme left. It is a tragedy of extreme proprtions for the country that we have such a left wing thicko of a LOTO at a time like this. The country needs a Blair without the warmongering tendency.
    >
    > That isn't where Labour's split is, and it predates Jezza. There is a total disconnect between the Guardianista, hand-wringing luvvie Labour and the folk down the Working Men's Club. It it getting harder and harder to keep everyone inside the broad church that is Labour. I wish I could offer a solution.

    Probably a socially centre-right (and pro-Brexit), economically centre-left party like the SDP is what the north would vote for. Sadly the SDP are now a micro-party, and have won and will win zero seats in these elections.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Wow. A real local fixture (councillor for 50 years, Con and independent at various times in his life, terrific old buffer in enormous manor house) has just lost his seat, Stonesfield & Tackley, to the Lib Dems.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,872
    Do we think it is fair to blame David Attenborough for the Green meanies advance? The timing of his documentary was, interesting.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Jo Swinson claiming LD success is due to Brexit, local issues, protest, the strength of LDs In local politics. Basically everything. They won all the seats, everywhere
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384
    > @CarlottaVance said:
    > Local anonymous Twitter account (generally believed to be run by an unnamed councillor) is predicting Labour will win Chipping Norton.
    >
    > If true, that's a symbolic end to the Cameron era.
    >
    > Have you been to Chipping Norton? If Labour win there the world we have known has ended.
    >
    > Its changing......
    >
    > https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/12/conservatives-lost-home-counties-influx-young-people-london-south-east

    Despite losing Chipping Norton, West Oxfordshire is a Conservative hold.
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,242
    > @KentRising said:
    > > @SandyRentool said:
    > > > @Nigel_Foremain said:
    > > > > @TheKingofLangley said:
    > > > > It seems to me that Labour now has a bigger problem than the Tories on Brexit. Tories are pretty much in favour of Brexit - both MPs and supporters. They just need to make it happen. Labour is split down the middle among its MPs and although a majority of the membership supports remain a substantial majority want to leave. Corbyn - to give him credit - managed to sit on the fence successfully up until now but these results have emphatically tipped him off.
    > > >
    > > > Not so much split down the middle, but split down the extreme left. It is a tragedy of extreme proprtions for the country that we have such a left wing thicko of a LOTO at a time like this. The country needs a Blair without the warmongering tendency.
    > >
    > > That isn't where Labour's split is, and it predates Jezza. There is a total disconnect between the Guardianista, hand-wringing luvvie Labour and the folk down the Working Men's Club. It it getting harder and harder to keep everyone inside the broad church that is Labour. I wish I could offer a solution.
    >
    > Probably a socially centre-right (and pro-Brexit), economically centre-left party like the SDP is what the north would vote for. Sadly the SDP are now a micro-party, and have won and will win zero seats in these elections.

    I call it Labour's Hartlepool and Hornsey problem. How to keep both on side.

    I think it could prove a big problem if there is an election before Brexit is resolved.

    I do wonder if there is an opportunity for the Tories to do well at a GE, if they replace May with a Brexiteer. It would be a big risk but might be worth it.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2019
    The same political parties are getting hammered for being thought of as in favour of a soft Brexit in some areas and a hard Brexit in others. Somerset voted Leave in the referendum and the Tories are doing badly. Bath voted Remain and the Tories are doing badly. But the same thing is also true of Labour in many areas, such as Sunderland and Reading
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Mr Rottenborough,

    The Green gain in St Helens was one of four seats taken from Labour in a NIMBY protest. Our seat was another. It's been described as a landslide in the local paper. It's down to Labour proposing building on the green belt. They tried to reverse-ferret a little when they saw the reaction coming.


    They failed, because the Labour councillors would still have obeyed orders when push came to shove, so they were pushed out decisively. An interesting exercise in local democracy. We, the voters, tell you what to do, not some distant party meeting. We had no Green candidate so the Independent won. In other parts there were Green candidates and no independents but the issue was the same.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384
    Con hold West Lindsey. Con 19 (-4) Lib Dem 12 (+5) Ind 5 (+3) Lab 0 (-4)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited May 2019
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    AndyJS said:

    The same political parties are getting hammered for being thought of as in favour of a soft Brexit in some areas and a hard Brexit in others. Somerset voted Leave in the referendum and the Tories are doing badly. Bath voted Remain and the Tories are doing badly. But the same thing is also true of Labour in many areas, such as Sunderland and Reading

    A reminder of how remainers and (leavers) view the two parties in terms of Brexit:

    Conservatives:

    Pro-Brexit: 56 (23)
    Anti-Brexit: 11 (40)
    Neither: 18 (21)
    Don't know: 15 (16)

    Labour:

    Pro-Brexit: 18 (7)
    Anti-Brexit: 28 (61)
    Neither: 30 (14)
    Don't know: 24 (18)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    > @Cyclefree said:

    > > @DavidL said:

    > > > @FrancisUrquhart said:

    > > > New International Development Secretary Rory Stewart has said he intends to stand for the Conservative leadership after Theresa May steps down.

    > > >

    > > > Given he gets overlooked time and time again for a big job, supposed the only way to get one is via this route.

    > >

    > > That almost makes me want to join the party. Almost.

    >

    > Having a PM from Cumbria would be nice.



    Great. And move Parliament to Barrow-in-Furness. The area needs the employment and London needs the spece.

    if they did that do you think the railway line might get some investment?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    CD13 said:

    Mr Rottenborough,



    The Green gain in St Helens was one of four seats taken from Labour in a NIMBY protest. Our seat was another. It's been described as a landslide in the local paper. It's down to Labour proposing building on the green belt. They tried to reverse-ferret a little when they saw the reaction coming.





    They failed, because the Labour councillors would still have obeyed orders when push came to shove, so they were pushed out decisively. An interesting exercise in local democracy. We, the voters, tell you what to do, not some distant party meeting. We had no Green candidate so the Independent won. In other parts there were Green candidates and no independents but the issue was the same.

    Thanks.

    Anyone know what the Barnsley issue was?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    > @CD13 said:
    > Mr Rottenborough,
    >
    > The Green gain in St Helens was one of four seats taken from Labour in a NIMBY protest. Our seat was another. It's been described as a landslide in the local paper. It's down to Labour proposing building on the green belt. They tried to reverse-ferret a little when they saw the reaction coming.
    >
    >
    > They failed, because the Labour councillors would still have obeyed orders when push came to shove, so they were pushed out decisively. An interesting exercise in local democracy. We, the voters, tell you what to do, not some distant party meeting. We had no Green candidate so the Independent won. In other parts there were Green candidates and no independents but the issue was the same.

    It is amazing how strong NIMBY is. Apart from people saying time and time again we need a lot more houses, no one seems to want them nearby.
  • XtrainXtrain Posts: 341
    It's touching to see people on Twitter all claiming the results confirm their views
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Cyclefree said:

    > @El_Capitano said:

    > Yesterday I checked who the MEPs for my London constituency are. Sadly, no Lib Dem MEP but a Green one. (And that ghastly Batten character.). So I will vote, I think, Green in the euros.

    >

    >

    >

    > BTW I have just heard the Durufle Requiem for the first time. A big shout out to whoever mentioned it in here last night. Quite superb.

    >

    > Yay! My presence here on PB has been of some use to someone. :smiley:

    >

    > On topic: very big LD gain (from Con) in one of our local wards most affected by house-building. Backs up Sebastian Payne's theory on Twitter that planning is actually the unspoken big issue in these elections... so maybe Nick Boles has unwittingly been an architect of the Tories' misfortunes.



    It certainly has! The Castagnet Mass for me next. I love hearing about new pieces of music.



    In return, try the Allegri Miserere. First time I heard it in a church in Venice I thought I'd died and gone to heaven. (Though you probably already know it.)

    Do you know the Missa Sancti Nicolai? We chose it for our nuptial mass. Here's the Kyrie

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aqgczcc16dM
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,289
    edited May 2019
    Lab gain Elland from Con: 1 gain short of control in Calderdale

    Meanwhile lose 3 in Kirklees in first 9 declared: 1 more loss will cede to NOC.

    Swapsies?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    > @Charles said:
    > > @El_Capitano said:
    >
    > > Yesterday I checked who the MEPs for my London constituency are. Sadly, no Lib Dem MEP but a Green one. (And that ghastly Batten character.). So I will vote, I think, Green in the euros.
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > BTW I have just heard the Durufle Requiem for the first time. A big shout out to whoever mentioned it in here last night. Quite superb.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Yay! My presence here on PB has been of some use to someone. :smiley:
    >
    > >
    >
    > > On topic: very big LD gain (from Con) in one of our local wards most affected by house-building. Backs up Sebastian Payne's theory on Twitter that planning is actually the unspoken big issue in these elections... so maybe Nick Boles has unwittingly been an architect of the Tories' misfortunes.
    >
    >
    >
    > It certainly has! The Castagnet Mass for me next. I love hearing about new pieces of music.
    >
    >
    >
    > In return, try the Allegri Miserere. First time I heard it in a church in Venice I thought I'd died and gone to heaven. (Though you probably already know it.)
    >
    > Do you know the Missa Sancti Nicolai? We chose it for our nuptial mass. Here's the Kyrie

    No, I don't. Thank you. I will listen. Currently listening to Pergolesi's Stabat Mater.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Looks like Greens have done well in Brighton and Hove while Labour (who had a Momentum take over, more than half of the Cllrs retiring or deselected and dodgy new candidates) will be disappointed
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited May 2019
    > @Pro_Rata said:
    > Lab gain Elland from Con: 1 gain short of control in Calderdale
    >
    > Meanwhile lose 3 in Kirklees in first 9 declared: 1 more loss will cede to NOC.
    >
    > Swapsies?

    Could it be that some voters are just giving who was in possession a kicking, even at lowly council level? Meaning no real pattern and just churn for churn's sake in some areas.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Sean_F said:

    Despite losing Chipping Norton, West Oxfordshire is a Conservative hold.

    Indeed, though as it's elected in thirds that was always pretty much a given.

    Labour are absolutely destroying the Conservatives in Witney though, and the Lib Dems have picked up a few in the rural areas. It's possible that it may go NOC in the next few years.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    If you were a Leave voter disgusted with the Tories handling of Brexit, who didn't like Corbyn and doesn't like the latest version of UKIP, who would you have voted for in these local elections?
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    2 Greens gain in Knowsley so far
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    > @El_Capitano said:
    > Despite losing Chipping Norton, West Oxfordshire is a Conservative hold.
    >
    > Indeed, though as it's elected in thirds that was always pretty much a given.
    >
    > Labour are absolutely destroying the Conservatives in Witney though, and the Lib Dems have picked up a few in the rural areas. It's possible that it may go NOC in the next few years.

    Losing Bolsover and within winning distance in Witney. Corbyn's salt-of-the-earth Labour Party.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    > @isam said:
    > If you were a Leave voter disgusted with the Tories handling of Brexit, who didn't like Corbyn and doesn't like the latest version of UKIP, who would you have voted for in these local elections?

    In some places there would be an Ind
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    > @isam said:
    > If you were a Leave voter disgusted with the Tories handling of Brexit, who didn't like Corbyn and doesn't like the latest version of UKIP, who would you have voted for in these local elections?

    Independent, residents, sdp, old liberal, the splinter kippers and failing that LD or Green as an FU knowing locals ard not euros
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
    > > @isam said:
    > > If you were a Leave voter disgusted with the Tories handling of Brexit, who didn't like Corbyn and doesn't like the latest version of UKIP, who would you have voted for in these local elections?
    >
    > In some places there would be an Ind

    A lot of places that didn't have an Indie, the Greens or Lib Dems benefitted, is my theory.
This discussion has been closed.