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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the betting markets a no deal Brexit moves from a 37% chanc

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  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    rpjs said:

    Crossrail… must have Crossrail...

    I wonder at what point will the Queen discretely convey to TfL “Thanks but no thanks, you can just call it Crossrail again”?
    Or We are not amused Rail.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    Endillion said:

    malcolmg said:

    Freggles said:

    Absolute howler from Blackford, asking why Scotland is being ignored - PM responds that she is meeting the First Ministers for Scotland and Wales today :lol:

    Too little too late, does not hide fact that she has ignored Scotland totally.
    What's Scotland?
    very droll :smiley:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    _Anazina_ said:

    Will someone put PMQs out of its misery?

    It’s always bloody awful.

    But then Bercow would not get his chance to shine, and we cannot have that.

    It is of limited usefulness, to be fair.

  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yet 36% of Britons want NI to stay in the UK to only 19% who want it to Leave and join the Republic even if 36% would leave it correctly entirely up to the people of NI
    Does punting the idea of Loyalist armed UDI of a Prod enclave in the event of reunification count as leaving it correctly entirely up to the people of NI?
    That is up to loyalists, if there is a majority in Antrim for UDI so be it
    AIUI the only reason why Fermanagh and Tyrone were included in Norn Iron in the first place was that Carson et al. concluded that just four counties wouldn’t be a viable statelet, so I don’t see how one or two would be.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631

    Endillion said:

    dixiedean said:

    Starmer, Brown and RLB to accompany JC to no 10.

    Gordon Brown???
    More of a statesman since leaving office than Blair or Cameron.

    They could hardly take John Major!
    To be fair to Cameron, he’s been pretty much invisible since he stepped down. I imagine his memior’s publication has been somewhat delayed by not wishing to make life any more difficult for the Brexit negotiations that it has been already.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Can I just say it is FAKE NEWS that my vote swap helped Lee Rowley gain his seat in 2017.

    FFS first Andrea Jenkyns now Lee Rowley.

    One question about that, how do youI answer the "How did you vote in the last election" question on the surveys ?
    Lib Dem.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    Can I just say it is FAKE NEWS that my vote swap helped Lee Rowley gain his seat in 2017.

    FFS first Andrea Jenkyns now Lee Rowley.

    Console yourself with the thought that since he won by more than 1, you really didn't.
    Your genial and convincing doorstep manner probably swung thousands for Andrea, however...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Sandpit said:

    Endillion said:

    dixiedean said:

    Starmer, Brown and RLB to accompany JC to no 10.

    Gordon Brown???
    More of a statesman since leaving office than Blair or Cameron.

    They could hardly take John Major!
    To be fair to Cameron, he’s been pretty much invisible since he stepped down. I imagine his memior’s publication has been somewhat delayed by not wishing to make life any more difficult for the Brexit negotiations that it has been already.
    Would he really want to publish, everyone seeing what an utter mess has arisen from the cockup that finished his career?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Can anybody think of a reason why we shouldn't, as a country, start political measures against Brunei wrt their rather medieval new laws?

    There are times when 'condemnation' is not enough. Before anyone starts, I'm not talking about war, but something more than just tut-tutting.

    They are in a geopolitically significant location and have been long term allies of the U.K.

    They are unpleasant jerks but countries can’t always afford to pick their friends
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    Charles said:

    Can anybody think of a reason why we shouldn't, as a country, start political measures against Brunei wrt their rather medieval new laws?

    There are times when 'condemnation' is not enough. Before anyone starts, I'm not talking about war, but something more than just tut-tutting.

    They are in a geopolitically significant location and have been long term allies of the U.K.

    They are unpleasant jerks but countries can’t always afford to pick their friends
    Really? We could have a referendum
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    isam said:


    Not much, but the symbolism of no longer being a member of the EU would at least be a start, and make it easier to gradually release ourselves from it in the future.

    It also makes it impossible for the establishment to forget that over 50% of voters disagreed with them on something they held dear & presumed was the will of the nation.

    Thank God we have been released from the grip of the Establishment by a ragged-trousered army of Old Etonians and their billionaire hedge fund paymasters.
    Politicians on the whole are part of the elite establishment, it’s not worth trying to play that card really. It’s the voters that disagreed with the establishment status quo.
    Suppose JRM et al won and implemented whatever flavour of Brexit their tiny, warped, idiotic, moronic brains wanted. Why would that not then be the establishment status quo?
    The establishment is more than politicians - it includes bishops, the BBC etc
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752
    dixiedean said:

    Endillion said:

    viewcode said:

    Nicky Morgan is serious about trying to win the ERG vote in the leadership contest.

    https://twitter.com/DamianGreen/status/1113394935686946817

    How come Rees Mogg is MR Jacob Rees Mogg, and Steve Baker is MR Steve Baker, whereas the others simply have their names? Maybe it is how Rees Mogg and Baker announce themselves. A now deceased relative of mine always said that a gentleman never refers to himself as "Mr". This is obviously a piece of snobbish old-fashioned-ry that has passed by the monocle mutineer.
    Are they privy councillors or chairs of select committees? Would that explain it?
    It's just personal preference, expressed when they're sworn in:
    https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/elections-and-voting/swearingin/#jump-link-4

    After shaking the Speaker’s hand, the MP goes behind the Speaker’s Chair, where staff will take a signature for recognition purposes and ask how the MP wishes to be known in House documents.
    Is Zorgon the Earthshaker, Master of all I Survey available?
    Already taken by Vince Cable unfortunately, in his capacity as successor to Ming the Merciless.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042
    I see that Labour is now purging members for their PB posts.

    I await the 2am knock on the door from two men in leather overcoats...
  • dixiedean said:

    Can I just say it is FAKE NEWS that my vote swap helped Lee Rowley gain his seat in 2017.

    FFS first Andrea Jenkyns now Lee Rowley.

    Console yourself with the thought that since he won by more than 1, you really didn't.
    Your genial and convincing doorstep manner probably swung thousands for Andrea, however...
    That’s cheered me right up.

    At least I’ve never voted/campaign for Private Francois.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Endillion said:

    dixiedean said:

    Starmer, Brown and RLB to accompany JC to no 10.

    Gordon Brown???
    More of a statesman since leaving office than Blair or Cameron.

    They could hardly take John Major!
    To be fair to Cameron, he’s been pretty much invisible since he stepped down. I imagine his memior’s publication has been somewhat delayed by not wishing to make life any more difficult for the Brexit negotiations that it has been already.
    Would he really want to publish, everyone seeing what an utter mess has arisen from the cockup that finished his career?
    On the basis that he’s rumoured to have already been paid a £2n advance for them, probably yes!
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    edited April 2019
    Charles said:

    Can anybody think of a reason why we shouldn't, as a country, start political measures against Brunei wrt their rather medieval new laws?

    There are times when 'condemnation' is not enough. Before anyone starts, I'm not talking about war, but something more than just tut-tutting.

    They are in a geopolitically significant location and have been long term allies of the U.K.

    They are unpleasant jerks but countries can’t always afford to pick their friends
    Now that Malaysia is gone, what is significant about their location? If they are an ally, in what way have they contributed to our foreign policy objectives? I think the idea of Britain projecting military power so close to the PRC is unthinkable.

    If we still need a jungle warfare school, couldn’t we build one in Brazil instead? I’m sure Bolsonaro would be keen, and Brazil has slightly more geopolitical significance than Brunei.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Charles said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    isam said:


    Not much, but the symbolism of no longer being a member of the EU would at least be a start, and make it easier to gradually release ourselves from it in the future.

    It also makes it impossible for the establishment to forget that over 50% of voters disagreed with them on something they held dear & presumed was the will of the nation.

    Thank God we have been released from the grip of the Establishment by a ragged-trousered army of Old Etonians and their billionaire hedge fund paymasters.
    Politicians on the whole are part of the elite establishment, it’s not worth trying to play that card really. It’s the voters that disagreed with the establishment status quo.
    Suppose JRM et al won and implemented whatever flavour of Brexit their tiny, warped, idiotic, moronic brains wanted. Why would that not then be the establishment status quo?
    The establishment is more than politicians - it includes bishops, the BBC etc
    Absolutely. And I can't see JRM getting rid of any of the bishops any time soon. The BBC maybe...
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    Sandpit said:

    Endillion said:

    dixiedean said:

    Starmer, Brown and RLB to accompany JC to no 10.

    Gordon Brown???
    More of a statesman since leaving office than Blair or Cameron.

    They could hardly take John Major!
    To be fair to Cameron, he’s been pretty much invisible since he stepped down. I imagine his memior’s publication has been somewhat delayed by not wishing to make life any more difficult for the Brexit negotiations that it has been already.
    Not to mention the difficulty of coming up with a convincing justification for the disastrous mess he left behind him that will stand up to historical scrutiny.

    I very much doubt the book will ever appear.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    malcolmg said:

    Freggles said:

    Absolute howler from Blackford, asking why Scotland is being ignored - PM responds that she is meeting the First Ministers for Scotland and Wales today :lol:

    He tried to get out of that by saying it's not formal talks, the surprised face of the lady next to him when TMay said she was meeting with the FM rather gives the lie to that...
    Your arse , it is a meeting only , no formal talks have ever taken place with Scottish Government or will with these cretins.
    When is a meeting not a meeting

    When Malcs mate doesnt know about it
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,543
    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    isam said:


    Not much, but the symbolism of no longer being a member of the EU would at least be a start, and make it easier to gradually release ourselves from it in the future.

    It also makes it impossible for the establishment to forget that over 50% of voters disagreed with them on something they held dear & presumed was the will of the nation.

    Thank God we have been released from the grip of the Establishment by a ragged-trousered army of Old Etonians and their billionaire hedge fund paymasters.
    Politicians on the whole are part of the elite establishment, it’s not worth trying to play that card really. It’s the voters that disagreed with the establishment status quo.
    Suppose JRM et al won and implemented whatever flavour of Brexit their tiny, warped, idiotic, moronic brains wanted. Why would that not then be the establishment status quo?
    The establishment is more than politicians - it includes bishops, the BBC etc
    Absolutely. And I can't see JRM getting rid of any of the bishops any time soon. The BBC maybe...
    But is JRM in favour of disenstablishmentarianism? He is a Roman Catholic.
  • Hilariously, I am being investigated by the Labour party for an article and a post I made here on Political Betting. I could end up being expelled from a party of which I am no longer a member. maybe they think I'm Jewish!!

    https://twitter.com/SpaJw/status/1113392278876360705

    Hang on. Rule Book 2018. Chapter 2 Para 1 Clause 4 is about reasons they can exclude you. They relate to:
    A. Running against the party or nominating someone who runs against us
    B. Supporting a non-affiliated other party or unit
    C. A candidate not standing under the official Labour logo / description
    D. Convicts.

    Based on what they have sent you, WHAT THE ACTUAL FUCK are they on about?

    Wankers.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387
    RoyalBlue said:

    Charles said:

    Can anybody think of a reason why we shouldn't, as a country, start political measures against Brunei wrt their rather medieval new laws?

    There are times when 'condemnation' is not enough. Before anyone starts, I'm not talking about war, but something more than just tut-tutting.

    They are in a geopolitically significant location and have been long term allies of the U.K.

    They are unpleasant jerks but countries can’t always afford to pick their friends
    Now that Malaysia is gone, what is significant about their location? If they are an ally, in what way have they contributed to our foreign policy objectives? I think the idea of Britain projecting military power so close to the PRC is unthinkable.

    If we still need a jungle warfare school, couldn’t we build one in Brazil instead? I’m sure Bolsonaro would be keen, and Brazil has slightly more geopolitical significance than Brunei.
    More pertinently, Brunei provides lots of money to lots of professional people in the UK.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,620

    I see that Labour is now purging members for their PB posts.

    I await the 2am knock on the door from two men in leather overcoats...

    Report them to the Vegan Activists.....
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Sean_F said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Charles said:

    Can anybody think of a reason why we shouldn't, as a country, start political measures against Brunei wrt their rather medieval new laws?

    There are times when 'condemnation' is not enough. Before anyone starts, I'm not talking about war, but something more than just tut-tutting.

    They are in a geopolitically significant location and have been long term allies of the U.K.

    They are unpleasant jerks but countries can’t always afford to pick their friends
    Now that Malaysia is gone, what is significant about their location? If they are an ally, in what way have they contributed to our foreign policy objectives? I think the idea of Britain projecting military power so close to the PRC is unthinkable.

    If we still need a jungle warfare school, couldn’t we build one in Brazil instead? I’m sure Bolsonaro would be keen, and Brazil has slightly more geopolitical significance than Brunei.
    More pertinently, Brunei provides lots of money to lots of professional people in the UK.
    I will accept realpolitik arguments for Saudi Arabia, but not for some irrelevant statelet.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,620
    Chris said:

    dixiedean said:

    Endillion said:

    viewcode said:

    Nicky Morgan is serious about trying to win the ERG vote in the leadership contest.

    https://twitter.com/DamianGreen/status/1113394935686946817

    How come Rees Mogg is MR Jacob Rees Mogg, and Steve Baker is MR Steve Baker, whereas the others simply have their names? Maybe it is how Rees Mogg and Baker announce themselves. A now deceased relative of mine always said that a gentleman never refers to himself as "Mr". This is obviously a piece of snobbish old-fashioned-ry that has passed by the monocle mutineer.
    Are they privy councillors or chairs of select committees? Would that explain it?
    It's just personal preference, expressed when they're sworn in:
    https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/elections-and-voting/swearingin/#jump-link-4

    After shaking the Speaker’s hand, the MP goes behind the Speaker’s Chair, where staff will take a signature for recognition purposes and ask how the MP wishes to be known in House documents.
    Is Zorgon the Earthshaker, Master of all I Survey available?
    Already taken by Vince Cable unfortunately, in his capacity as successor to Ming the Merciless.
    I would love to get promoted to the House of Lords, if only to bag Lord Vader of Cheam ahead of Eddie Izzard.....
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    Hilariously, I am being investigated by the Labour party for an article and a post I made here on Political Betting. I could end up being expelled from a party of which I am no longer a member. maybe they think I'm Jewish!!

    https://twitter.com/SpaJw/status/1113392278876360705

    Hang on. Rule Book 2018. Chapter 2 Para 1 Clause 4 is about reasons they can exclude you. They relate to:
    A. Running against the party or nominating someone who runs against us
    B. Supporting a non-affiliated other party or unit
    C. A candidate not standing under the official Labour logo / description
    D. Convicts.

    Based on what they have sent you, WHAT THE ACTUAL FUCK are they on about?

    Wankers.
    It is dated 1st April otherwise such is the wankery that one might suspect...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387
    RoyalBlue said:

    Sean_F said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Charles said:

    Can anybody think of a reason why we shouldn't, as a country, start political measures against Brunei wrt their rather medieval new laws?

    There are times when 'condemnation' is not enough. Before anyone starts, I'm not talking about war, but something more than just tut-tutting.

    They are in a geopolitically significant location and have been long term allies of the U.K.

    They are unpleasant jerks but countries can’t always afford to pick their friends
    Now that Malaysia is gone, what is significant about their location? If they are an ally, in what way have they contributed to our foreign policy objectives? I think the idea of Britain projecting military power so close to the PRC is unthinkable.

    If we still need a jungle warfare school, couldn’t we build one in Brazil instead? I’m sure Bolsonaro would be keen, and Brazil has slightly more geopolitical significance than Brunei.
    More pertinently, Brunei provides lots of money to lots of professional people in the UK.
    I will accept realpolitik arguments for Saudi Arabia, but not for some irrelevant statelet.
    That's not the view that prevails among the people who make money out of Brunei.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    isam said:


    Not much, but the symbolism of no longer being a member of the EU would at least be a start, and make it easier to gradually release ourselves from it in the future.

    It also makes it impossible for the establishment to forget that over 50% of voters disagreed with them on something they held dear & presumed was the will of the nation.

    Thank God we have been released from the grip of the Establishment by a ragged-trousered army of Old Etonians and their billionaire hedge fund paymasters.
    Politicians on the whole are part of the elite establishment, it’s not worth trying to play that card really. It’s the voters that disagreed with the establishment status quo.
    Suppose JRM et al won and implemented whatever flavour of Brexit their tiny, warped, idiotic, moronic brains wanted. Why would that not then be the establishment status quo?
    The establishment is more than politicians - it includes bishops, the BBC etc
    Absolutely. And I can't see JRM getting rid of any of the bishops any time soon. The BBC maybe...
    But is JRM in favour of disenstablishmentarianism? He is a Roman Catholic.
    Unlikely as it would pave the way for gay marriage to occur in (at least anglican) churches.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Programme Motion debate starts. Cross-party (Benn) amendment called. Other amendments not called, although Letwin says he supports votes on Monday if Brexit isn't resolved.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    This thread

    has gone to watch the new one

  • NEW THREAD

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,008
    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    isam said:


    Not much, but the symbolism of no longer being a member of the EU would at least be a start, and make it easier to gradually release ourselves from it in the future.

    It also makes it impossible for the establishment to forget that over 50% of voters disagreed with them on something they held dear & presumed was the will of the nation.

    Thank God we have been released from the grip of the Establishment by a ragged-trousered army of Old Etonians and their billionaire hedge fund paymasters.
    Politicians on the whole are part of the elite establishment, it’s not worth trying to play that card really. It’s the voters that disagreed with the establishment status quo.
    Suppose JRM et al won and implemented whatever flavour of Brexit their tiny, warped, idiotic, moronic brains wanted. Why would that not then be the establishment status quo?
    The establishment is more than politicians - it includes bishops, the BBC etc
    Absolutely. And I can't see JRM getting rid of any of the bishops any time soon. The BBC maybe...
    However as at present, he may bash them from time to time.
  • I see that Labour is now purging members for their PB posts.

    I await the 2am knock on the door from two men in leather overcoats...

    I already got reported for comments made on social media. By local "comrades" who having wandered into the party following the Messiah decided that as I do not worship His feet I - a member for the last 24 years - should go.

    Actually wrote directly to the General Secretary DEMANDING my expulsion.

    Was quite funny when I put in one phone call and had it dropped into the circular file...
This discussion has been closed.