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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the betting markets a no deal Brexit moves from a 37% chanc

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  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Dura_Ace said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    May I thank all those who are inviting the masses of people to discover Das Kapital by Karl Marx, or even The Communist Manifesto by Marx and Engels. By promoting the next potential Prime Minister as Marxist, many are going to be wanting to find out more about this "strange" previously "unknown" and definitely unpublicised philosophy. Now on sale on Amazon from 99p on Kindle and from £3.99 in paperback.
    You should take pride in your achievements in bringing down Capitalism and neo-liberalism. from the inside.

    I saw a schoolboy on the tube reading Das Kapital the other day. I just assumed it was @TheJezziah brushing up.
    Das Kapital is a bit tedious, but The Communist Manifesto is short and very readable. It is one of the political classics that everyone should read.
    The romance of Marx is undeniable. You've got a penniless and extravagantly bearded exile scratching away in the reading room of the British Library but he's writing a compelling political and economic history of a century that is yet to come.

    Hopefully we'll get him on a banknote in the second term.
    Will that be the new £10,000 note you'd need five of to buy a Cappuccino?
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337

    kinabalu said:

    What an opportunity for Jeremy to look pragmatic and Prime Ministerial and the early indications are that he will make the most of it.

    He has certainly made an excellent start with that photo this morning. Note the glasses perched halfway down his nose. It looks suitably serious for what is after all a serious situation. More to the point, he needs his spectacles to read the document in front of him, therefore that he is wearing them shows that he is all over this.

    And what is that document he is studying? This is the best sign of all. It is not the Withdrawal Agreement that everyone knows cannot be changed. No, it is the POLITICAL DECLARATION which (albeit meaningless) is now the heart of the matter and has the additional benefit of being much shorter and less unpleasant to wade through.

    The whole image says compromise, concentration, judgment, wood from the trees, national interest.

    But all of this great PR will be in vain if he does not go on to achieve what must be the objective - fail to reach an agreement with the PM while appearing to want one.

    That could prove difficult if the 'red lines' really have gone for a burton. How is he going to pull off a No Agreement if Mrs May is caving in left right and centre to his demands? That is the real challenge here and all the photos in the world will not help if Jeremy is not up to it. So is Jeremy up to it?

    Yes, I rather think he is.

    Theresa May spent seven hours yesterday not reaching agreement with her own Cabinet. She has spent the last two years not compromising with anyone. Why will it be different this time?
    Because she's talking to the well-known pragmatist and middle-of-the-road dealmaker Jeremy Corbyn, who doesn't in any way want to destroy the Tory party and line himself up for a stint at number ten off the back of a 'harmful Tory Brexit'.

    Oh.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    The point about the no-referendumers having nowhere to go in Labour is a good one. Who have they got to defect to ? At the same time the willingness for that has to come from Corbyn, and I haven't seen it so far.

    I don't think he will agree to a referendum in talks with May (and I doubt she will agree to one ether) but he will leave the way open for parliament to go for one later. A route it is quite likely to take now I think. A referendum will inevitably lead to the fall of the government.
    Look at it the other way around. With no agreement there's a vote on a PV on Monday. Can Corbyn really risk being the man who takes that away?
  • Michael Gove backers should note that he urged a long extension after signing the letter calling for Britain to exit on 22 May. Whether this commendable flexibility makes him more or less likely to reach the top of the greasy pole is not yet clear.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/04/02/seven-hours-rows-recrimination-cabinet-produced-surprising-shift/

    I think Gove now might be the candidate of the one nation wing of the party.

    I'd expect the likes of Rudd to back him.

    He'll deliver Brexit and one nation Toryism (see his early support for LGBT rights and stint as Justice Secretary) so he can unite the party.

    That said his former campaign manager has left the Tory party so that's going to be a blow to his chances.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    edited April 2019

    IanB2 said:

    FPT:

    Charles said:

    Xtrain said:

    I'm registered to vote in Twickenham but am spending most of my time in West Dorset, a second home. Are there any ramifications if I register to vote in West Dorset with the intention of voting here in any GE?

    So long as you only vote once it’s ok

    (There may also be council tax implications for primary residence)
    The rules on this have changed and it is no longer sufficient to register as a voter that you own a property, pay council tax on it, or spend an amount of time there. Unlike in the old days where just being the owner allowed you to register.

    There needs to be a reasonable degree of permanent residence. If you split your time reasonably equally between two locations, you can register at both. If you have a clear primary residence and only use the second property for leisure purposes (for example occasional holidays and weekends) then you cannot register there, and must register at your main property.

    From the OP's posting, if his "spending most of his time" is an ongoing situation and not simply transient, he actually MUST register in Dorset and come off the register in Twickenham.
    That's not quite right, I think. The law is much less clear-cut than you imply.

    Here's what the Electoral Commission says:

    Whether or not you reside at an address is not defined in law. Residence is understood to mean a “considerable degree of permanence”.

    This means a person with two homes who spends the same amount of time in each can legally register at both addresses.

    It is unlikely that merely owning a second home that is used for recreation would be enough to qualify you to register to vote in that area. Simply paying council tax on a second home would also not be enough.


    Note that they DON'T say that spending about the same time in the two residences is a condition for registering at both addresses. The reason they don't say that is that there is no basis in law for saying it.

    As I understand it, the main case law on this is Fox vs Stirk, helpfully summarised by the tax man here:

    https://www.gov.uk/hmrc-internal-manuals/capital-gains-manual/cg64455

    As you can see, there's no requirement to spend roughly equal amounts of time in the two residences.
    And around five years ago second home discounts for council tax were abolished. You can choose where to vote in a GE.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    May criticizing some in the Tory party who refused to back her deal . Blaming them for having to speak to Corbyn .

    The ERG nutjobs getting exactly what they deserve . Overplayed their hand and clearly couldn’t count.

    Opposition and just a small number of sane Tories trumps the lunatics .
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    In any case it turns out that neither we nor the German car makers held all the cards. Jeremy did.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited April 2019

    Not commented since the TM announcement last night.

    Think she has been pragmatic and sensible. What else can she really do?

    Whilst I do sympathise with the ERG to a degree (notwithstanding their idiocy), they are behaving as if this is a Tory administration with a 100 seat majority. May tried for that in June 2017, and day by day is being vindicated for that strategic judgement call even if she ballsed it up. We all posted on here on the morning after the GE that Brexit was either dead completely or we would have BINO.

    May valiantly tried to press on and came very very close to getting a sensible compromise deal which should have kept both sides of her party together, the DUP, and a sensible core of moderate Labour MPs particularly those in Leave seats. The backstop was a mess and we should have stood firmer on that sooner. But I do admire what she has tried to do.

    The ERG say we should No Deal. But how can a minority Government, under threat of a VONC every day and likely to get hammered at a GE, allow such a thing to happen - especially when Parliament may take it out of their hands next week anyway?

    I think with hindsight "pressing on anyway" after June 2017 was a grave mistake. She should have said "we are minority now so we have to build consensus". Even with Cameron's thin majority the same may well have been true anyway.

    Engaging Corbyn is right, and I am encouraged by his consensual and statesmanlike tone, which is to his credit. I think they will sort it. Or agree a list of options, one of which will get a majority in the final crunch vote on Monday. The Tories will lose core voter support (I read a tweet by Jenkyns last night and the comments of her "betrayed" constituents in response to it do not make happy reading for moderate middle ground Tory supporters like me frankly), but in the long term we are probably going to leave the EU, we will find a happy compromise settlement which will be worse than TM's own deal, but the administration may survive, with a new PM, and get to lead the future settlement which may depart from whatever the May/Corbyn deal requires. The country will get to move on, the Union will survive for now, and in time, we will have a GE where we get a straight choice between the new PM and Corbyn away from the current frenzied heat.

    I hope...!

    In 2010 you and I were the only two sensible Tory supporters on here (when we could see the Posh Boys were blowing their chance of a majority) so all I can say about this post is:

    Dream On! :D
  • TOPPING said:

    In any case it turns out that neither we nor the German car makers held all the cards. Jeremy did.

    LOL. Theresa May was also right.

    https://twitter.com/theresa_may/status/865855578454806529
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    If this was a horror film, a zombified tezzajezza would appear outside number 10 just repeating 'were all in this together' whilst the shot cuts to a sunlit upland where David Cameron is pleasuring himself with a dead pig whilst laughing hysterically.
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    I don't buy this "Corbyn now de facto PM" garbage.

    Surely having a discussion with the Leader of the Opposition to find a way of unlocking votes from his MPs, when you need to build a majority, is a world apart from saying "name your price, whatever it is I will pay it".

    She's already said that if the two of them can't find a way through, it will go back to Parliament to decide.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    You can lay TM being next out of the Cabinet at 3.5.
    Surely someone is going to resign soon... it's almost been four months now...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    The only upside of all this is watching the ERG reap what they have sowed.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    She has a point with the ERG but who blew her majority by calling a vanity election and losing a 20%+ opinion poll lead in four weeks so she had to rely on the DUP in the first place?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    GIN1138 said:

    She has a point with the ERG but who blew her majority by calling a vanity election and losing a 20%+ opinion poll lead in four weeks so she had to rely on the DUP in the first place?
    Thus have we made the world and thus has she made it
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    If, from here, we get a major Tory split, a Labour membership revolt against the leadership and a very soft Brexit, or even none at all, it could just be that the last three years turn out to be worth it! Big if, though.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,469
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    MaxPB said:

    The only upside of all this is watching the ERG reap what they have sowed.

    They tried to get rid of May - the wets who voted for her to stay on are at fault.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    If, from here, we get a major Tory split, a Labour membership revolt against the leadership and a very soft Brexit, or even none at all, it could just be that the last three years turn out to be worth it! Big if, though.

    Ive done a bit of early morning drinking myself :-)
  • tottenhamWCtottenhamWC Posts: 352

    Michael Gove backers should note that he urged a long extension after signing the letter calling for Britain to exit on 22 May. Whether this commendable flexibility makes him more or less likely to reach the top of the greasy pole is not yet clear.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/04/02/seven-hours-rows-recrimination-cabinet-produced-surprising-shift/

    I think Gove now might be the candidate of the one nation wing of the party.

    I'd expect the likes of Rudd to back him.

    He'll deliver Brexit and one nation Toryism (see his early support for LGBT rights and stint as Justice Secretary) so he can unite the party.

    That said his former campaign manager has left the Tory party so that's going to be a blow to his chances.
    Gove and Rudd together would win quite a lot of support as a combo, I suspect.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    edited April 2019
    I'm not sure how all this is going to play with the and of course that will depend on the process and outcome. Rushing to the view that Corbyn as PM is inevitable is actually very speculative.

    Anti-Corbyn sentiment is strong and pretty much unshakeable but in itself will probably not prevent a Labour majority. However many people recognise the difficulty of managing Brexit hence TM's reasonable ratings under the circumstances. If an election is avoided at the point of maximum Tory disarray who then regroup under a relatively sane leader that might be enough to stop a Lab majority or even win one. You also have to factor in that Corbyn could get this wrong now that he is more in the Brexit spotlight. The obvious dangers electorally are obvious game playing and nit-picking, pushing FOM hard (I like FOM but I think it is net negative for votes) and permanent CU dipping in popularity when the implications sink in. The PV issue is potentially big. If both parties are for or against then it is probably neutralised (an unlikely TIG + Lib Dem surge not withstanding). If the Tories wanted to damage Corbyn then they would engineer a Labour Tory split foisting the PV on to a reluctant May! Not likely though.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    GIN1138 said:

    She has a point with the ERG but who blew her majority by calling a vanity election and losing a 20%+ opinion poll lead in four weeks so she had to rely on the DUP in the first place?
    TBF it wasn't exactly a vanity election; Her majority wasn't huge, and she correctly saw that it was going to be hard to get stuff through and it would go more smoothly with a bigger one.

    The actual election was heavily characterized by being shit at prime ministering but the decision to hold it made sense on available evidence.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Michael Gove backers should note that he urged a long extension after signing the letter calling for Britain to exit on 22 May. Whether this commendable flexibility makes him more or less likely to reach the top of the greasy pole is not yet clear.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/04/02/seven-hours-rows-recrimination-cabinet-produced-surprising-shift/

    I think Gove now might be the candidate of the one nation wing of the party.

    I'd expect the likes of Rudd to back him.

    He'll deliver Brexit and one nation Toryism (see his early support for LGBT rights and stint as Justice Secretary) so he can unite the party.

    That said his former campaign manager has left the Tory party so that's going to be a blow to his chances.
    Gove and Rudd together would win quite a lot of support as a combo, I suspect.
    Fangirl Gove Rudd shippers are already penning fanfics
    I still think Truss is the girl for this
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    If Brexit were a Netflix show the next episode would be the one where Sinn Fein announce they are taking their seats.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    TGOHF said:

    MaxPB said:

    The only upside of all this is watching the ERG reap what they have sowed.

    They tried to get rid of May - the wets who voted for her to stay on are at fault.

    No, they had three chances to vote for brexit, they fucked it each time.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    GIN1138 said:

    She has a point with the ERG but who blew her majority by calling a vanity election and losing a 20%+ opinion poll lead in four weeks so she had to rely on the DUP in the first place?
    TBF it wasn't exactly a vanity election; Her majority wasn't huge, and she correctly saw that it was going to be hard to get stuff through and it would go more smoothly with a bigger one.

    The actual election was heavily characterized by being shit at prime ministering but the decision to hold it made sense on available evidence.
    Yes. Given the ERG was bigger than the size of the majority she inherited from Cameron, calling an election to increase her majority made a lot of sense given the polls of the time, but she wasn’t up to the task.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    MaxPB said:

    TGOHF said:

    MaxPB said:

    The only upside of all this is watching the ERG reap what they have sowed.

    They tried to get rid of May - the wets who voted for her to stay on are at fault.

    No, they had three chances to vote for brexit, they fucked it each time.
    May had

    The General Election

    2 years of being PM

    She f**ked it all.


  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Dura_Ace said:

    If Brexit were a Netflix show the next episode would be the one where Sinn Fein announce they are taking their seats.

    And then vote with the government leaving a horrified Corbyn screaming 'why?!!!!!'
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Always unwise to take a twitter at face value. I watched the exchange and it is neither verbatlm nor in context.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    Asking for a friend.

    Why is it ok for the ERG to vote with Corbyn to stop Mrs May's Brexit deal but Mrs May is evil for trying to get Corbyn's votes to pass a deal?

    Morality plays are like lobster traps. Only one way.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    GIN1138 said:

    She has a point with the ERG but who blew her majority by calling a vanity election and losing a 20%+ opinion poll lead in four weeks so she had to rely on the DUP in the first place?
    She called the election because she knew she couldn't rely on the ERG to vote for her. She was right.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    GIN1138 said:

    She has a point with the ERG but who blew her majority by calling a vanity election and losing a 20%+ opinion poll lead in four weeks so she had to rely on the DUP in the first place?
    TBF it wasn't exactly a vanity election; Her majority wasn't huge, and she correctly saw that it was going to be hard to get stuff through and it would go more smoothly with a bigger one.

    The actual election was heavily characterized by being shit at prime ministering but the decision to hold it made sense on available evidence.
    It was a vanity election as she wasn't offering up anything new.

    It was all about buying years.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,725
    edited April 2019
    DougSeal said:

    GIN1138 said:

    She has a point with the ERG but who blew her majority by calling a vanity election and losing a 20%+ opinion poll lead in four weeks so she had to rely on the DUP in the first place?
    TBF it wasn't exactly a vanity election; Her majority wasn't huge, and she correctly saw that it was going to be hard to get stuff through and it would go more smoothly with a bigger one.

    The actual election was heavily characterized by being shit at prime ministering but the decision to hold it made sense on available evidence.
    Yes. Given the ERG was bigger than the size of the majority she inherited from Cameron, calling an election to increase her majority made a lot of sense given the polls of the time, but she wasn’t up to the task.
    Given that she did get over 42% of the vote I think criticism of the campaign tends to be overstated as a factor in why the election went badly and turned out to have been a strategic mistake.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Endillion said:

    GIN1138 said:

    She has a point with the ERG but who blew her majority by calling a vanity election and losing a 20%+ opinion poll lead in four weeks so she had to rely on the DUP in the first place?
    She called the election because she knew she couldn't rely on the ERG to vote for her. She was right.
    Why was her manifesto and campaign so crap then ? Was that the ERG's fault too ?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    I'm not sure how all this is going to play with the and of course that will depend on the process and outcome. Rushing to the view that Corbyn as PM is inevitable is actually very speculative.

    Anti-Corbyn sentiment is strong and pretty much unshakeable but in itself will probably not prevent a Labour majority. However many people recognise the difficulty of managing Brexit hence TM's reasonable ratings under the circumstances. If an election is avoided at the point of maximum Tory disarray who then regroup under a relatively sane leader that might be enough to stop a Lab majority or even win one. You also have to factor in that Corbyn could get this wrong now that he is more in the Brexit spotlight. The obvious dangers electorally are obvious game playing and nit-picking, pushing FOM hard (I like FOM but I think it is net negative for votes) and permanent CU dipping in popularity when the implications sink in. The PV issue is potentially big. If both parties are for or against then it is probably neutralised (an unlikely TIG + Lib Dem surge not withstanding). If the Tories wanted to damage Corbyn then they would engineer a Labour Tory split foisting the PV on to a reluctant May! Not likely though.

    I cannot see any party winning a majority at the next election unless either Corbyn or May go. Even then, without a recovery in Scotland, I can’t see where the Labour seats come from to make them anything other than largest party and a minority government.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Telegraph reporting that Starmer wants to tag along to meet the PM but Jezza isn't keen.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387

    If, from here, we get a major Tory split, a Labour membership revolt against the leadership and a very soft Brexit, or even none at all, it could just be that the last three years turn out to be worth it! Big if, though.

    Followed by a GE with multiple parties, and either Farage or Corbyn winning an overall majority on about 27% of the vote.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    TGOHF said:

    Telegraph reporting that Starmer wants to tag along to meet the PM but Jezza isn't keen.

    Starmer overreaching there
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited April 2019
    TGOHF said:

    Telegraph reporting that Starmer wants to tag along to meet the PM but Jezza isn't keen.

    "Why - don't you trust me, Keir ? "

    "It's not that I don't trust you Jeremy, it's just.."
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    TGOHF said:

    Telegraph reporting that Starmer wants to tag along to meet the PM but Jezza isn't keen.

    Why would Jezza want to share the money shot of him walking into Downing St to sort out Brexit with Starmer? :D
  • GreenHeronGreenHeron Posts: 148

    This apparent future desire for Corbyn amongst some of the harder Brexit posters does show how the extremes of political right and left are much closer than one might otherwise predict or expect :)

    Brexit and Corbynism are two cheeks of the same arse.

    Both blame others for the ills of the country and are prepared to trash the economy so they can they deliver on their policies.
    There's a lot of truth in that. Trumpism over the pond as well. The problem is that these movements have gained and are remaining popular because the established politicians have failed to address the concerns of large numbers of voters, and sadly I've seen virtually no evidence that the established politicians have either attempted to address these concerns or even grasped this point.

    And until they do, I remain convinced that an extremist government of one type or other is around the corner.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    edited April 2019
    Stormont hasnt sat for 807 days, but MLAs have had £9.7m in salaries

    https://sluggerotoole.com/2019/04/03/two-questions-on-how-we-lost-stormont-807-days-and-counting-ago/
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,888
    Mike, what's your take on the Welsh Devolution Referendum of 1997, when Yes won by only 0.6%?

    image
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653

    If, from here, we get a major Tory split, a Labour membership revolt against the leadership and a very soft Brexit, or even none at all, it could just be that the last three years turn out to be worth it! Big if, though.

    Ive done a bit of early morning drinking myself :-)

    I did mine last night!

    Off to your homeland next week with an ex-colleague from a place called Carryduff, or something like that. Do you know it? He is going to show me the North and we are going to drink a lot, I suspect.

  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    MaxPB said:

    TGOHF said:

    MaxPB said:

    The only upside of all this is watching the ERG reap what they have sowed.

    They tried to get rid of May - the wets who voted for her to stay on are at fault.

    No, they had three chances to vote for brexit, they fucked it each time.
    Could the 22 committee change the rules on leadership election - considering 200 mps want no deal might be a good route for them and ditch May sharpish
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    TGOHF said:

    Endillion said:

    GIN1138 said:

    She has a point with the ERG but who blew her majority by calling a vanity election and losing a 20%+ opinion poll lead in four weeks so she had to rely on the DUP in the first place?
    She called the election because she knew she couldn't rely on the ERG to vote for her. She was right.
    Why was her manifesto and campaign so crap then ? Was that the ERG's fault too ?
    No, that's entirely on her. But it wasn't a vanity election called just because she thought she could increase her majority, and if the ERG hadn't been such utter bellends, she might not have bothered.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387
    The ERG should certainly have taken the deal that was on offer.

    If you compromise about nothing, you get nothing.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    DougSeal said:

    GIN1138 said:

    She has a point with the ERG but who blew her majority by calling a vanity election and losing a 20%+ opinion poll lead in four weeks so she had to rely on the DUP in the first place?
    TBF it wasn't exactly a vanity election; Her majority wasn't huge, and she correctly saw that it was going to be hard to get stuff through and it would go more smoothly with a bigger one.

    The actual election was heavily characterized by being shit at prime ministering but the decision to hold it made sense on available evidence.
    Yes. Given the ERG was bigger than the size of the majority she inherited from Cameron, calling an election to increase her majority made a lot of sense given the polls of the time, but she wasn’t up to the task.
    Given that she did get over 42% of the vote I think criticism of the campaign tends to be overstated as a factor in why the election went badly and turned out to have been a strategic mistake.
    I agree. Brexit was a key factor in London, where I did a lot of campaigning. May's blundering was secondary. I remember very well being sent out to canvass a street of large houses overlooking a common, which I naturally approached with some trepidation as it seemed unlikely that their prosperous owners would look kindly on Corbyn's Labour. But house after house said they were voting :Labour because of Brexit. It soon became clear that the Tories would not get the large majority that was then expected.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387

    Stormont hasnt sat for 807 days, but MLAs have had £9.7m in salaries

    https://sluggerotoole.com/2019/04/03/two-questions-on-how-we-lost-stormont-807-days-and-counting-ago/

    Nice work if you can get it.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,149
    edited April 2019
    kjohnw said:

    MaxPB said:

    TGOHF said:

    MaxPB said:

    The only upside of all this is watching the ERG reap what they have sowed.

    They tried to get rid of May - the wets who voted for her to stay on are at fault.

    No, they had three chances to vote for brexit, they fucked it each time.
    Could the 22 committee change the rules on leadership election - considering 200 mps want no deal might be a good route for them and ditch May sharpish
    Not in the next week when a decision has to be made
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    edited April 2019

    May I thank all those who are inviting the masses of people to discover Das Kapital by Karl Marx, or even The Communist Manifesto by Marx and Engels. By promoting the next potential Prime Minister as Marxist, many are going to be wanting to find out more about this "strange" previously "unknown" and definitely unpublicised philosophy. Now on sale on Amazon from 99p on Kindle and from £3.99 in paperback.
    You should take pride in your achievements in bringing down Capitalism and neo-liberalism. from the inside.

    Obvious troll is obvious. ;)

    May I thank all those who are inviting the masses of people to discover Das Kapital by Karl Marx, or even The Communist Manifesto by Marx and Engels. By promoting the next potential Prime Minister as Marxist, many are going to be wanting to find out more about this "strange" previously "unknown" and definitely unpublicised philosophy. Now on sale on Amazon from 99p on Kindle and from £3.99 in paperback.
    You should take pride in your achievements in bringing down Capitalism and neo-liberalism. from the inside.

    Obvious troll is obvious. ;)
    Troll, liar, Labour PR. People here are generally pretty bright and cynical.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    If, from here, we get a major Tory split, a Labour membership revolt against the leadership and a very soft Brexit, or even none at all, it could just be that the last three years turn out to be worth it! Big if, though.

    Ive done a bit of early morning drinking myself :-)

    I did mine last night!

    Off to your homeland next week with an ex-colleague from a place called Carryduff, or something like that. Do you know it? He is going to show me the North and we are going to drink a lot, I suspect.

    yeah

    small village in Co Down

    near Strangford Lough which is worth a visit also if youre an NT member go to Mount Stewart the ancestral home of Lord Castlereagh - has some of the original chhairs from the Congress of Vienna. If youre a Game of Thrones fans there lots to see as NI is basically the set for Winterfell.

    Otherwise if youre travelling, do the North Coast, Belfast and the Titanic, Mournes and drink and eat lots.

    Hope you have a fun time
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219
    Sean_F said:

    Stormont hasnt sat for 807 days, but MLAs have had £9.7m in salaries

    https://sluggerotoole.com/2019/04/03/two-questions-on-how-we-lost-stormont-807-days-and-counting-ago/

    Nice work if you can get it.
    Their constituents must be thrilled with all the constituency work they're able to do now.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    I agree. Brexit was a key factor in London, where I did a lot of campaigning. May's blundering was secondary. I remember very well being sent out to canvass a street of large houses overlooking a common, which I naturally approached with some trepidation as it seemed unlikely that their prosperous owners would look kindly on Corbyn's Labour. But house after house said they were voting :Labour because of Brexit. It soon became clear that the Tories would not get the large majority that was then expected.

    I think you are right that it depended a lot on the area. In Eastbourne and in Hastings & Rye the much-misunderstood 'dementia tax' seemed to be much more of a factor than Brexit.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    Mike, what's your take on the Welsh Devolution Referendum of 1997, when Yes won by only 0.6%?

    image

    It’s not the referendum but what happened after the referendum. Brexit’s like prohibition - hugely popular idea until its difficulties become evident. The Welsh Assembly was a reasonably well thought out proposal decently implemented. Brexit isn’t as we see today. Anyway, it’s not as if the Conservatives were not ruling out a second referendum on the issue ( https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/theresa-now-lying-welsh-assembly-15673406 ) and there is a party in Wales devoted to the Assembly’s abolition that isn’t exactly setting the polls on fire.
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    TGOHF said:

    Telegraph reporting that Starmer wants to tag along to meet the PM but Jezza isn't keen.

    Lol I wonder why that is.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    edited April 2019

    I don't buy this "Corbyn now de facto PM" garbage.

    Surely having a discussion with the Leader of the Opposition to find a way of unlocking votes from his MPs, when you need to build a majority, is a world apart from saying "name your price, whatever it is I will pay it".

    She's already said that if the two of them can't find a way through, it will go back to Parliament to decide.

    People here are terribly keen to jump to conclusions. Those who put a smiley face at the end of their posts are generally just Farage smegma suckers.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653

    If, from here, we get a major Tory split, a Labour membership revolt against the leadership and a very soft Brexit, or even none at all, it could just be that the last three years turn out to be worth it! Big if, though.

    Ive done a bit of early morning drinking myself :-)

    I did mine last night!

    Off to your homeland next week with an ex-colleague from a place called Carryduff, or something like that. Do you know it? He is going to show me the North and we are going to drink a lot, I suspect.

    yeah

    small village in Co Down

    near Strangford Lough which is worth a visit also if youre an NT member go to Mount Stewart the ancestral home of Lord Castlereagh - has some of the original chhairs from the Congress of Vienna. If youre a Game of Thrones fans there lots to see as NI is basically the set for Winterfell.

    Otherwise if youre travelling, do the North Coast, Belfast and the Titanic, Mournes and drink and eat lots.

    Hope you have a fun time

    Cheers!

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,724
    matt said:

    May I thank all those who are inviting the masses of people to discover Das Kapital by Karl Marx, or even The Communist Manifesto by Marx and Engels. By promoting the next potential Prime Minister as Marxist, many are going to be wanting to find out more about this "strange" previously "unknown" and definitely unpublicised philosophy. Now on sale on Amazon from 99p on Kindle and from £3.99 in paperback.
    You should take pride in your achievements in bringing down Capitalism and neo-liberalism. from the inside.

    Obvious troll is obvious. ;)

    May I thank all those who are inviting the masses of people to discover Das Kapital by Karl Marx, or even The Communist Manifesto by Marx and Engels. By promoting the next potential Prime Minister as Marxist, many are going to be wanting to find out more about this "strange" previously "unknown" and definitely unpublicised philosophy. Now on sale on Amazon from 99p on Kindle and from £3.99 in paperback.
    You should take pride in your achievements in bringing down Capitalism and neo-liberalism. from the inside.

    Obvious troll is obvious. ;)
    Troll, liar, Labour PR. People here are generally pretty bright and cynical.
    There were several lines that could be taken against him: for instance, it's funny that someone into Marx and Communism, and who wants to bring down Capitalism, says you should buy your books from Amazon!

    It does show a rather lack of serious thought on his part ... :p
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,724
    matt said:

    I don't buy this "Corbyn now de facto PM" garbage.

    Surely having a discussion with the Leader of the Opposition to find a way of unlocking votes from his MPs, when you need to build a majority, is a world apart from saying "name your price, whatever it is I will pay it".

    She's already said that if the two of them can't find a way through, it will go back to Parliament to decide.

    People here are terribly keen to jump to conclusions. Those who put a smiley face at the end of their posts are generally just Farage smegma suckers.
    Thanks! ;)
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    edited April 2019

    This apparent future desire for Corbyn amongst some of the harder Brexit posters does show how the extremes of political right and left are much closer than one might otherwise predict or expect :)

    It’s not desire. It’s making the best of it. Hopefully ‘excitement’ will make up for rapid relative decline.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    TGOHF said:

    Telegraph reporting that Starmer wants to tag along to meet the PM but Jezza isn't keen.

    Probably a good indicator whether Corbyn is serious or not.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    If, from here, we get a major Tory split, a Labour membership revolt against the leadership and a very soft Brexit, or even none at all, it could just be that the last three years turn out to be worth it! Big if, though.

    Ive done a bit of early morning drinking myself :-)

    I did mine last night!

    Off to your homeland next week with an ex-colleague from a place called Carryduff, or something like that. Do you know it? He is going to show me the North and we are going to drink a lot, I suspect.

    Try this also (never a holiday from politics, is there)

    https://viator.com/tours/Belfast/Belfast-Mural-Tour/d738-15965P1
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    IanB2 said:

    Parallel universe: Leadsom wins the leadership and becomes PM.

    How different would Brexit have turned out?

    She would have crashed and burned earlier, losing her remainer wing and we'd be into a GE or Referendum by now.
    I'm not so sure. She's proved a far better Leader of the House than May has proved a PM....

    She would probably have told the EU to piss off on the negotiation structure. That could have gone either way. I also think it likely she would also have planned for No Deal from the off. That may have had early doors Cabinet resignations. But defections?

    I suspect we would have had a Canada-style deal in the bag with Tusk. Ireland border would still be fun and games. But maybe with some more creative thinking....
    Leadsome is still in the Cabinet as of time of writing so presumably accepts the outcome of May's negotiations. It seems to me therefore that she likely would have conceded on the same things.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Andrew said:

    TGOHF said:

    Telegraph reporting that Starmer wants to tag along to meet the PM but Jezza isn't keen.

    Probably a good indicator whether Corbyn is serious or not.
    Corbyn doesn't want someone there which actually understands the issue....and which will be likely to do a reasonsable deal.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387
    RoyalBlue said:

    This apparent future desire for Corbyn amongst some of the harder Brexit posters does show how the extremes of political right and left are much closer than one might otherwise predict or expect :)

    It’s not desire. It’s making the best of it. Hopefully ‘excitement’ will make up for rapid relative decline.
    Some people just want to pull the house down, if they don't get what they want. There was a burst of enthusiasm for Corbyn for some Remainers after the referendum.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,136
    matt said:

    I don't buy this "Corbyn now de facto PM" garbage.

    Surely having a discussion with the Leader of the Opposition to find a way of unlocking votes from his MPs, when you need to build a majority, is a world apart from saying "name your price, whatever it is I will pay it".

    She's already said that if the two of them can't find a way through, it will go back to Parliament to decide.

    People here are terribly keen to jump to conclusions. Those who put a smiley face at the end of their posts are generally just Farage smegma suckers.
    :)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Sigh. Already said, but not good at all.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    Andrew said:

    TGOHF said:

    Telegraph reporting that Starmer wants to tag along to meet the PM but Jezza isn't keen.

    Probably a good indicator whether Corbyn is serious or not.
    Corbyn doesn't want someone there which actually understands the issue....and which will be likely to do a reasonsable deal.
    Does Starmer want a PV? If so, it might be useful for Jezza to bring him along if he thinks that would collapse any negotiations.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    edited April 2019

    May I thank all those who are inviting the masses of people to discover Das Kapital by Karl Marx, or even The Communist Manifesto by Marx and Engels. By promoting the next potential Prime Minister as Marxist, many are going to be wanting to find out more about this "strange" previously "unknown" and definitely unpublicised philosophy. Now on sale on Amazon from 99p on Kindle and from £3.99 in paperback.
    You should take pride in your achievements in bringing down Capitalism and neo-liberalism. from the inside.

    Alternatively, take a look at The Road to Serfdom by Friedrich Hayek, completely free to download thanks to those wonderful people at the IEA.

    https://iea.org.uk/publications/research/the-road-to-serfdom
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    tlg86 said:

    Andrew said:

    TGOHF said:

    Telegraph reporting that Starmer wants to tag along to meet the PM but Jezza isn't keen.

    Probably a good indicator whether Corbyn is serious or not.
    Corbyn doesn't want someone there which actually understands the issue....and which will be likely to do a reasonsable deal.
    Does Starmer want a PV? If so, it might be useful for Jezza to bring him along if he thinks that would collapse any negotiations.
    Starmers been pretty clear/strong pushing on a PV hasn't he?

    Which of course Jezza doesn't want.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_P said:
    Well, this is going to be a fun day. Loads of Ministers no-one has ever heard of with no discernible achievements to their name impress us all with their ability to sign a letter.
    It's been 6 months since a cabinet minister quit over Brexit. I expect that to change.

    I'm not sure it will get better, but it will get worse for may first even if it works. But attempting compromise rather than pretend she can push through is the right stance at least. And of course she's pilloried for it. For showing weakness. Well she is weak, nothing has changed. Admitting it is first step to attempt to fix things though
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622
    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Parallel universe: Leadsom wins the leadership and becomes PM.

    How different would Brexit have turned out?

    She would have crashed and burned earlier, losing her remainer wing and we'd be into a GE or Referendum by now.
    I'm not so sure. She's proved a far better Leader of the House than May has proved a PM....

    She would probably have told the EU to piss off on the negotiation structure. That could have gone either way. I also think it likely she would also have planned for No Deal from the off. That may have had early doors Cabinet resignations. But defections?

    I suspect we would have had a Canada-style deal in the bag with Tusk. Ireland border would still be fun and games. But maybe with some more creative thinking....
    Leadsome is still in the Cabinet as of time of writing so presumably accepts the outcome of May's negotiations. It seems to me therefore that she likely would have conceded on the same things.
    I think, as I said, that many of the Cabinet are sitting back. Watching. Waiting.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    That Army thing is scary if real. Almost Breivik like.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Not his best moment. But better everyone is flexible now frankly.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,253

    No just the authority of office. If Brown had met Cameron in similar circumstances the headline would have been "PM to meet Cameron for talks"

    But that should work both ways. It has to be "May meets Corbyn" or "PM meets Opposition Leader".

    Bit rich for the BBC to expect me to pay my licence fee when my favoured political leader is so shamelessly disrespected.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,725
    RoyalBlue said:

    Hopefully ‘excitement’ will make up for rapid relative decline.

    That’s the next Brexit campaign message right there.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Jonathan said:

    That Army thing is scary if real. Almost Breivik like.

    Yes, it's very disturbing.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Jonathan said:

    That Army thing is scary if real. Almost Breivik like.

    why so?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Asking for a friend.

    Why is it ok for the ERG to vote with Corbyn to stop Mrs May's Brexit deal but Mrs May is evil for trying to get Corbyn's votes to pass a deal?

    They regard it as him voting with them not the other way around. Also they're hypocrites.

    Or they would no doubt say because they're voting with him was for the greater good of no deal while her asking him at all would be for greater evil of a bad deal.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622
    TGOHF said:

    Telegraph reporting that Starmer wants to tag along to meet the PM but Jezza isn't keen.

    "Keep the gimp under the stairs...."
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387

    TGOHF said:

    Telegraph reporting that Starmer wants to tag along to meet the PM but Jezza isn't keen.

    "Keep the gimp under the stairs...."
    How do gimps like Guto Bebb and Mark Francois become ministers?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,724

    Jonathan said:

    That Army thing is scary if real. Almost Breivik like.

    Yes, it's very disturbing.
    It's so utterly unprofessional. I know some of the ex-military types on here laugh about it, but it's not the behaviour that we admire our armed forces for.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622

    Jonathan said:

    That Army thing is scary if real. Almost Breivik like.

    Yes, it's very disturbing.
    If you think THAT is disturbing, you wouldn't want to hear some of the stuff that went on in the Falklands....

    Or NI.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,724

    Jonathan said:

    That Army thing is scary if real. Almost Breivik like.

    Yes, it's very disturbing.
    If you think THAT is disturbing, you wouldn't want to hear some of the stuff that went on in the Falklands....

    Or NI.
    That doesn't make it right ...
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Sean_F said:

    TGOHF said:

    Telegraph reporting that Starmer wants to tag along to meet the PM but Jezza isn't keen.

    "Keep the gimp under the stairs...."
    How do gimps like Guto Bebb and Mark Francois become ministers?
    squeaky wheels get the most oil.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Jonathan said:

    That Army thing is scary if real. Almost Breivik like.

    Yes, it's very disturbing.
    It's so utterly unprofessional. I know some of the ex-military types on here laugh about it, but it's not the behaviour that we admire our armed forces for.
    I for one feel fine pontificating about the antics of the army in the hell hole that is Afghanistan from my safe comfy armchair etc etc...

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Jonathan said:

    That Army thing is scary if real. Almost Breivik like.

    If you think we're in crisis now just wait until Corbyn becomes PM and the establishment try and "remove" him - Think we'd all better get into the brace position.... ;)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    I don't buy this "Corbyn now de facto PM" garbage.

    Surely having a discussion with the Leader of the Opposition to find a way of unlocking votes from his MPs, when you need to build a majority, is a world apart from saying "name your price, whatever it is I will pay it".

    She's already said that if the two of them can't find a way through, it will go back to Parliament to decide.

    Agreed. It's a hung parliament, other votes are needed to pass things and you need to discuss it with people in that parliament. Its unusual to say the least to think the loto might pitch in, but on a national issue this big is not untoward.

    Talk of legitimising him is crap as well. He already had a good chance if being PM, he got 40% of the vote and been leader for ages.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,724
    TGOHF said:

    Jonathan said:

    That Army thing is scary if real. Almost Breivik like.

    Yes, it's very disturbing.
    It's so utterly unprofessional. I know some of the ex-military types on here laugh about it, but it's not the behaviour that we admire our armed forces for.
    I for one feel fine pontificating about the antics of the army in the hell hole that is Afghanistan from my safe comfy armchair etc etc...
    Yes, I am sitting safely in my armchair, and I've (thankfully) not had to experience the sh*t some of these people have been through. But if that is used as an excuse, and this is seen as being fine and dandy, then where do you draw the line?
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Jonathan said:

    That Army thing is scary if real. Almost Breivik like.

    Jonathan said:

    That Army thing is scary if real. Almost Breivik like.

    I’m sure it’s May’s fault. Everything else is in your world.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    TGOHF said:

    Telegraph reporting that Starmer wants to tag along to meet the PM but Jezza isn't keen.

    Starmer overreaching there
    Maybe, but he's played it well on Brexit and no point Corbyn hinting at anything if hed face a massive blow up afterwards.
This discussion has been closed.