Reflecting on the move by TM yesterday I would compare it to Kinnock's put down of militant.
Except Kinnock for all his faults, didn't spend three years playing up to Militant and have a general election promising to implement Militant policies.
Opinion polls change and they're not always right. June 23rd was a win for Remain then?
Two years after most GEs, the winning party are usually down in the polls. Mind you, an opinion poll would be a lot cheaper than holding a GE, but you'd need to check them every month. Swing doors in the HoC?
JRM getting rattled and trying to bully the female R4 presenter is not a good look for him.
He is an absolute and utter ****.
Yep. When someone tries to draw some great distinction between the AfD and Le Pen's FN, you can assume that person didn't have much of a moral compass in the first place.
It took me a few seconds to figure out which one is supposed to be the good ones... I guess AFD considering the context but aren't FN if anything a bit less dodgy then AFD?
A very low bar which they could scrape over, although that is based on only a little knowledge.
I'd have said both are a bunch of racist ****s, but a low bar as you say.
I can genuinely see 1936 Mogg getting outraged about comparisons being made between sound patriot Hitler and vile Marxist Stalin.
Reflecting on the move by TM yesterday I would compare it to Kinnock's put down of militant.
Except Kinnock for all his faults, didn't spend three years playing up to Militant and have a general election promising to implement Militant policies.
TM produced a good brexit deal but the ultras took it down
Reflecting on the move by TM yesterday I would compare it to Kinnock's put down of militant.
Except Kinnock for all his faults, didn't spend three years playing up to Militant and have a general election promising to implement Militant policies.
TM produced a good brexit deal but the ultras took it down
The ultras did not take down Brexit. They didn't have the numbers.
Labour MPs in Leave-voting seats took it down. They had the numbers to do right by their voters. To date, they have chosen not to.
Reflecting on the move by TM yesterday I would compare it to Kinnock's put down of militant.
Except Kinnock for all his faults, didn't spend three years playing up to Militant and have a general election promising to implement Militant policies.
TM produced a good brexit deal but the ultras took it down
We're including Labour MPS, ultra Con Remainers and the DUP (who she's only in hock to because she blew Cameron's majority in her vanity election) in that as well yes? (Given that even if every member of the ERG had voted for her agreement it still wouldn't have passed?)
Opinion polls change and they're not always right. June 23rd was a win for Remain then?
Two years after most GEs, the winning party are usually down in the polls. Mind you, an opinion poll would be a lot cheaper than holding a GE, but you'd need to check them every month. Swing doors in the HoC?
Excluding what is consistently by far the most popular option from any referendum just because you really don't like it would be a travesty of democracy.
You can argue against a referendum and there are strong arguments against a fresh referendum. But if there is a fresh referendum, it is absolutely non-negotiable that what appears to be by far the most popular single option is on the paper.
Not much, but the symbolism of no longer being a member of the EU would at least be a start, and make it easier to gradually release ourselves from it in the future.
It also makes it impossible for the establishment to forget that over 50% of voters disagreed with them on something they held dear & presumed was the will of the nation.
Thank God we have been released from the grip of the Establishment by a ragged-trousered army of Old Etonians and their billionaire hedge fund paymasters.
Politicians on the whole are part of the elite establishment, it’s not worth trying to play that card really. It’s the voters that disagreed with the establishment status quo.
Suppose JRM et al won and implemented whatever flavour of Brexit their tiny, warped, idiotic, moronic brains wanted. Why would that not then be the establishment status quo?
That would read so much better without the gratuitous insults.
Perhaps it would be, so what? Although in the context of the last 20 years or so of British political thought, I don’t think the ERG are the establishment. That would be Cameroon/Blairites
I wouldn't want you to be in any doubt as to my view of those people.
Meanwhile "I don't think the ERG are the establishment" must surely go down as a hall of famer PB quote.
If you ignore the context, even when it is explicitly emphasised, any quote can be twisted. Put it up on your wall and score it 1-0 to you if you need to.
Look at it in the context both of the last 20 years and of the last 200 years. The ERG want to go back to a period when the UK was untroubled by pesky foreigners, to a time when the UK's institutions (let's call it "the establishment") held sway with no external influence or compromise.
And as you know Arsenal are never more at risk of losing than when they are 1-0 up and anyway I am not taking down my posters of Mark Francois and Andrew Bridgen and that tennis girl for anyone.
12pm - PMQs. Mostly obscure backbenchers listed for Qs Then a couple bits of brief business
c. 1pm - Business Motion from Letwin/Cooper providing for their Bill Three procedural amendments tabled (Speaker's decision on whether to take): B: ERG to reduce the available time and delete the restrictions on filibuster C: Leaver MPs to require a two thirds majority at Second Reading A: Remainer MPs to continue the MPs' own indicative vote process on Monday
Procedural Debate must conclude for a vote by 5pm Main Motion Debate must conclude for a vote by 10pm
I believe amendments to the main motion can be tabled before it reaches Second Reading, but there are none tabled in advance for the Order Paper
So what goes wrong from here? For me, the only concern is No Deal. Once that is off the table, the only outcomes possible are: * A Brexit so soft it is almost Remain. * A referendum on May’s Deal v Remain * Remain No Deal is receding, but it could still happen. That’s the worry.
A fast-track Tory leadership is implemented. New PM by leaving date. General Election called for September. No Deal is managed surprisingly well. A very pro-business Budget is implemented. The Brexit boil is lanced.
Corbyn goes back to attacking austerity, poverty, housing - usual politics returns.
The prize for Corbyn is being able to present himself as the man who finally delivered Brexit, after the Tories abjectly failed to. That should be enough to see him win the next election. I reckon he'll go for it.
Corbyn’s Brexit will essentially be in name only. If that is delivered, the Tories will split and Labour - even under him - would win a majority.
I think Corbyn's plan for Brexit still sees an end to Freedom of Movement (as well as being outside the CAP, CFP, etc). Losing Freedom of Movement feels like a big loss to me and is far from being BINO.
I don’t think Corbyn would choose ending FoM as a hill to die on. Some cosmetic changes, no more.
He wouldn’t because his view is the more immigration the better.
He has come out as against exploitation of immigrant workers and the undercutting of the British low paid, which are the two major problems with FOM.
I’d guess he wants to make it harder for big corporates to profit from it anymore too, which is it’s main driver.
Corbyn’s solution is stronger unions. It’s not a bad one if ending workplace exploitation is your priority.
I’ve always found it strange that a party founded on strong unions was so relaxed about FOMs effect on the lowest paid. I was brainwashed into being a Labour supporter as a child, and it seemed to be in conflict with what I saw as Labour values. If you have the time I’d strongly recommend listening to this podcast.
Because unions and worker protections are a different way of solving the same problem. And in fact a much more effective one. It's like asking why, if doctors are so interested in treating cancer, they don't also support homeopathic treatments
Reflecting on the move by TM yesterday I would compare it to Kinnock's put down of militant.
Except Kinnock for all his faults, didn't spend three years playing up to Militant and have a general election promising to implement Militant policies.
TM produced a good brexit deal but the ultras took it down
The ultras did not take down Brexit. They didn't have the numbers.
Labour MPs in Leave-voting seats took it down. They had the numbers to do right by their voters. To date, they have chosen not to.
If all the ERG had voted on the first vote for the WDA we would be out now
I agree. Solemn promises are an important issue. I had a little sympathy for the LDs on tuition fees, because they weren't governing on their own and weren't in total control, but once you knowingly lie to the electorate about your policies, that makes a mockery of representative democracy.
Having your fingers crossed behind your backs isn't sufficient excuse.
Sky confirmed in absence of agreement with Corbyn TM will post indicative votes on monday and will go with the winning proposition
Well, that's what she said. But she attached the requirement that for her to whip for the winning option, Labour would have to do the same. Is that still the case?
Opinion polls change and they're not always right. June 23rd was a win for Remain then?
Two years after most GEs, the winning party are usually down in the polls. Mind you, an opinion poll would be a lot cheaper than holding a GE, but you'd need to check them every month. Swing doors in the HoC?
Excluding what is consistently by far the most popular option from any referendum just because you really don't like it would be a travesty of democracy.
You can argue against a referendum and there are strong arguments against a fresh referendum. But if there is a fresh referendum, it is absolutely non-negotiable that what appears to be by far the most popular single option is on the paper.
I don't know about "non-negotiable" but it looks pretty politically inevitable, despite all the froth it seems to generate every time somebody raises it here.
Sky confirmed in absence of agreement with Corbyn TM will post indicative votes on monday and will go with the winning proposition
Looking at the numbers from last time, CU is probably favourite, but the key question becomes where do the abstentions go? For example, 45 Tories abstained on the second referendum question, which you can potentially read as inclined to be supportive but not wanting to go public (yet). Could see CU with confirmatory referendum getting there.
Reflecting on the move by TM yesterday I would compare it to Kinnock's put down of militant.
Except Kinnock for all his faults, didn't spend three years playing up to Militant and have a general election promising to implement Militant policies.
TM produced a good brexit deal but the ultras took it down
The ultras did not take down Brexit. They didn't have the numbers.
Labour MPs in Leave-voting seats took it down. They had the numbers to do right by their voters. To date, they have chosen not to.
No, the ultras took it down by trashing it from the off.
Opinion polls change and they're not always right. June 23rd was a win for Remain then?
Two years after most GEs, the winning party are usually down in the polls. Mind you, an opinion poll would be a lot cheaper than holding a GE, but you'd need to check them every month. Swing doors in the HoC?
Excluding what is consistently by far the most popular option from any referendum just because you really don't like it would be a travesty of democracy.
You can argue against a referendum and there are strong arguments against a fresh referendum. But if there is a fresh referendum, it is absolutely non-negotiable that what appears to be by far the most popular single option is on the paper.
The point is that it may not be a choice between options at all. It may just be yes/no on a single option- May's deal
Reflecting on the move by TM yesterday I would compare it to Kinnock's put down of militant.
Except Kinnock for all his faults, didn't spend three years playing up to Militant and have a general election promising to implement Militant policies.
TM produced a good brexit deal but the ultras took it down
The ultras did not take down Brexit. They didn't have the numbers.
Labour MPs in Leave-voting seats took it down. They had the numbers to do right by their voters. To date, they have chosen not to.
If all the ERG had voted on the first vote for the WDA we would be out now
If the ERG voted for anything, DUP would have voted against anything.
The ERG have been the useful idiots in allowing Labour Leave MPs the cover to shout "Look - ERG squirrel!"
Opinion polls change and they're not always right. June 23rd was a win for Remain then?
Two years after most GEs, the winning party are usually down in the polls. Mind you, an opinion poll would be a lot cheaper than holding a GE, but you'd need to check them every month. Swing doors in the HoC?
Excluding what is consistently by far the most popular option from any referendum just because you really don't like it would be a travesty of democracy.
You can argue against a referendum and there are strong arguments against a fresh referendum. But if there is a fresh referendum, it is absolutely non-negotiable that what appears to be by far the most popular single option is on the paper.
The point is that it may not be a choice between options at all. It may just be yes/no on a single option- May's deal
Absolutely no - the one thing parliament is simply never going to do is hold a referendum where one of the choices leaves the whole matter unresolved.
Sky confirmed in absence of agreement with Corbyn TM will post indicative votes on monday and will go with the winning proposition
Well, that's what she said. But she attached the requirement that for her to whip for the winning option, Labour would have to do the same. Is that still the case?
I have not heard that but maybe best waiting further detail on monday in due course
Opinion polls change and they're not always right. June 23rd was a win for Remain then?
Two years after most GEs, the winning party are usually down in the polls. Mind you, an opinion poll would be a lot cheaper than holding a GE, but you'd need to check them every month. Swing doors in the HoC?
Excluding what is consistently by far the most popular option from any referendum just because you really don't like it would be a travesty of democracy.
You can argue against a referendum and there are strong arguments against a fresh referendum. But if there is a fresh referendum, it is absolutely non-negotiable that what appears to be by far the most popular single option is on the paper.
I don't know about "non-negotiable" but it looks pretty politically inevitable, despite all the froth it seems to generate every time somebody raises it here.
Well of course it's inevitable. But if the country is to retain any semblance of a democracy then public votes are not to exclude likely winners just because those setting the thing up don't like them.
Parallel universe: Leadsom wins the leadership and becomes PM.
How different would Brexit have turned out?
She would have crashed and burned earlier, losing her remainer wing and we'd be into a GE or Referendum by now.
See Leadsome's reported comments on indications of Irish direct rule ("let's call it something else"); the woman is really not smart and actually dangerous
JRM getting rattled and trying to bully the female R4 presenter is not a good look for him.
He is an absolute and utter ****.
Yep. When someone tries to draw some great distinction between the AfD and Le Pen's FN, you can assume that person didn't have much of a moral compass in the first place.
It took me a few seconds to figure out which one is supposed to be the good ones... I guess AFD considering the context but aren't FN if anything a bit less dodgy then AFD?
A very low bar which they could scrape over, although that is based on only a little knowledge.
I'd have said both are a bunch of racist ****s, but a low bar as you say.
I can genuinely see 1936 Mogg getting outraged about comparisons being made between sound patriot Hitler and vile Marxist Stalin.
I would say that there is very little difference between the divisive politics of the AfD and the SNP; their supporters both break windows of people they disagree with. Scottish Nationalist; the clue is in the name.
Opinion polls change and they're not always right. June 23rd was a win for Remain then?
Two years after most GEs, the winning party are usually down in the polls. Mind you, an opinion poll would be a lot cheaper than holding a GE, but you'd need to check them every month. Swing doors in the HoC?
Excluding what is consistently by far the most popular option from any referendum just because you really don't like it would be a travesty of democracy.
You can argue against a referendum and there are strong arguments against a fresh referendum. But if there is a fresh referendum, it is absolutely non-negotiable that what appears to be by far the most popular single option is on the paper.
The point is that it may not be a choice between options at all. It may just be yes/no on a single option- May's deal
No has to mean something. Telling the public that they are to give a democratic mandate to a course of action but they can't choose an option that is more popular than either you are giving them would be an abuse of democracy.
JRM getting rattled and trying to bully the female R4 presenter is not a good look for him.
He is an absolute and utter ****.
Yep. When someone tries to draw some great distinction between the AfD and Le Pen's FN, you can assume that person didn't have much of a moral compass in the first place.
It took me a few seconds to figure out which one is supposed to be the good ones... I guess AFD considering the context but aren't FN if anything a bit less dodgy then AFD?
A very low bar which they could scrape over, although that is based on only a little knowledge.
I'd have said both are a bunch of racist ****s, but a low bar as you say.
I can genuinely see 1936 Mogg getting outraged about comparisons being made between sound patriot Hitler and vile Marxist Stalin.
I would say that there is very little difference between the divisive politics of the AfD and the SNP; their supporters both break windows of people they disagree with. Scottish Nationalist; the clue is in the name.
Except that's not their name. Why are you gratuitously offensive about the SNP?
Parallel universe: Leadsom wins the leadership and becomes PM.
How different would Brexit have turned out?
She would have crashed and burned earlier, losing her remainer wing and we'd be into a GE or Referendum by now.
See Leadsome's reported comments on indications of Irish direct rule ("let's call it something else"); the woman is really not smart and actually dangerous
Parallel universe: Leadsom wins the leadership and becomes PM.
How different would Brexit have turned out?
She would have crashed and burned earlier, losing her remainer wing and we'd be into a GE or Referendum by now.
I'm not so sure. She's proved a far better Leader of the House than May has proved a PM....
She would probably have told the EU to piss off on the negotiation structure. That could have gone either way. I also think it likely she would also have planned for No Deal from the off. That may have had early doors Cabinet resignations. But defections?
I suspect we would have had a Canada-style deal in the bag with Tusk. Ireland border would still be fun and games. But maybe with some more creative thinking....
For example, 45 Tories abstained on the second referendum question, which you can potentially read as inclined to be supportive but not wanting to go public (yet). Could see CU with confirmatory referendum getting there.
You need to subtract most of the Tory cabinet numbers from that.
Reflecting on the move by TM yesterday I would compare it to Kinnock's put down of militant. TM has directly faced down ERG who were just as disruptive as militant and has moved the conservatives towards a one nation party
The irony in this is the crass behaviour of ERG themselves in overplaying their hand in sending in the letters to vonc TM far too early, then TM wins a vonc in her government, and in the last week promising to stand down on brexit providing her space to act as she has
I understand TM has given the talks with Corbyn until friday and in the absence of agreement TM will put forward indicative votes on monday to arrive at the will of the HOC, which she has said she will implement
Everything from Norway to customs union and referendums are very much still in play
She has followed the lead given by the ERG who voted with Corbyn 3 times against a Conservative government. Karma can be a bitch at times.
Surely Jezza will ask for a confirmatory GE as the price of cooperation now.
Listening to Barry Gardiner and Rebecca Long-Bailey, I do not believe the Labour leadership wants another referendum.
Of course they don't
Why on Earth would they want a referendum that will further split Sunderland from London when they can have a general election and begin the UK's first Marxist government?
Parallel universe: Leadsom wins the leadership and becomes PM.
How different would Brexit have turned out?
She would have crashed and burned earlier, losing her remainer wing and we'd be into a GE or Referendum by now.
I'm not so sure. She's proved a far better Leader of the House than May has proved a PM....
She would probably have told the EU to piss off on the negotiation structure. That could have gone either way. I also think it likely she would also have planned for No Deal from the off. That may have had early doors Cabinet resignations. But defections?
I suspect we would have had a Canada-style deal in the bag with Tusk. Ireland border would still be fun and games. But maybe with some more creative thinking....
She has been steady as Leader of the House, but I'm not convinced about creative thinking.
Yesterday's long cabinet demonstrates the delicate balance within Cabinet, which May is able to straddle given her political positioning. Trying to run the process from the Leave side would surely have alienated more of the House by now.
Surely Jezza will ask for a confirmatory GE as the price of cooperation now.
Listening to Barry Gardiner and Rebecca Long-Bailey, I do not believe the Labour leadership wants another referendum.
Of course they don't
Why on Earth would they want a referendum that will further split Sunderland from London when they can have a general election and begin the UK's first Marxist government?
Parallel universe: Leadsom wins the leadership and becomes PM.
How different would Brexit have turned out?
She would have crashed and burned earlier, losing her remainer wing and we'd be into a GE or Referendum by now.
I'm not so sure. She's proved a far better Leader of the House than May has proved a PM....
She would probably have told the EU to piss off on the negotiation structure. That could have gone either way. I also think it likely she would also have planned for No Deal from the off. That may have had early doors Cabinet resignations. But defections?
I suspect we would have had a Canada-style deal in the bag with Tusk. Ireland border would still be fun and games. But maybe with some more creative thinking....
She has been steady as Leader of the House, but I'm not convinced about creative thinking.
Yesterday's long cabinet demonstrates the delicate balance within Cabinet, which May is able to straddle given her political positioning. Trying to run the process from the Leave side would surely have alienated more of the House by now.
I should have said I've no problems with a confirmatory referendum. Do you want the agreed deal? Yes or no? But where does a remain option come from?
From the fact that it is currently by far the most popular option in the opinion polls at present and may well command a majority even before any run-off took place.
Actually Deltapoll at the weekend had Deal plus Customs Union and Common Market 2.0 more popular on a net basis than revoke and Remain, Yougov yesterday even had Leave with No Deal just ahead of Remain as the voters preferred option on a forced choice if the EU refuse a further extension
Parallel universe: Leadsom wins the leadership and becomes PM.
How different would Brexit have turned out?
She would have crashed and burned earlier, losing her remainer wing and we'd be into a GE or Referendum by now.
I'm not so sure. She's proved a far better Leader of the House than May has proved a PM....
She would probably have told the EU to piss off on the negotiation structure. That could have gone either way. I also think it likely she would also have planned for No Deal from the off. That may have had early doors Cabinet resignations. But defections?
I suspect we would have had a Canada-style deal in the bag with Tusk. Ireland border would still be fun and games. But maybe with some more creative thinking....
She has been steady as Leader of the House, but I'm not convinced about creative thinking.
Yesterday's long cabinet demonstrates the delicate balance within Cabinet, which May is able to straddle given her political positioning. Trying to run the process from the Leave side would surely have alienated more of the House by now.
May has been a creative-thinking void.....
She's displayed some pretty creative can-kicking skills.
O/T - What do people think about Trudeau removing the two whistleblower MPs from his party caucus. Looks bad imo - the audio recording seems clear pressuring of the attormey general to me.
Will Corbyn get a photo of himself walking in to number 10 by the front door today? He missed the opportunity to do so at the last round of talks.
He is in risky territory here though, if he doesn't demand some sort of referendum as well as the customs Union he may well end up in trouble in an election. Actually being in a position to implement his own Brexit plan, and still not going for a second vote, may be the final straw. If you look at the Owen Jones types of supporters, the argument so far has been that Labour are powerless to get a second vote through because of the tory majority. That argument becomes much more tricky once he is deciding policy with the government.
Will Corbyn get a photo of himself walking in to number 10 by the front door today? He missed the opportunity to do so at the last round of talks.
He is in risky territory here though, if he doesn't demand some sort of referendum as well as the customs Union he may well end up in trouble in an election. Actually being in a position to implement his own Brexit plan, and still not going for a second vote, may be the final straw. If you look at the Owen Jones types of supporters, the argument so far has been that Labour are powerless to get a second vote through because of the tory majority. That argument becomes much more tricky once he is deciding policy with the government.
Which is why insisting on a free vote on a PV is clever. It pleases his supporters and gives May a real difficulty agreeing to it, despite the default if they dont agree being that one happens on Monday anyway.
Reflecting on the move by TM yesterday I would compare it to Kinnock's put down of militant.
Except Kinnock for all his faults, didn't spend three years playing up to Militant and have a general election promising to implement Militant policies.
TM produced a good brexit deal but the ultras took it down
The ultras did not take down Brexit. They didn't have the numbers.
Labour MPs in Leave-voting seats took it down. They had the numbers to do right by their voters. To date, they have chosen not to.
10 to 15 Labour MPs were apparently ready to vote for the Deal last Friday but in the end chose not to once they saw it would definitely lose thanks to the ERG, you can rebel to win much harder to do so to lose
Look on the bright side. Even if BINO wins, we could elect a government with a manifesto of staying in the EU, but they were lying and they take us out instead.
How about a referendum on getting rid of nuclear power? I'd vote against but if we lost 52 - 48, I'd wouldn't expect us to get rid of 52% of the nuclear stations but leave 48% to appease me and the other losers.
All political systems have faults, but without good faith, they're all useless.
Can anybody think of a reason why we shouldn't, as a country, start political measures against Brunei wrt their rather medieval new laws?
There are times when 'condemnation' is not enough. Before anyone starts, I'm not talking about war, but something more than just tut-tutting.
I raised just this the other day and, other than @CarlottaVance, who suggested expelling them from the Commonwealth, the view here was that the government would do nothing. Though I am with you, they should do something: expulsion from the Commonwealth, making it clear that no one from the Brunei Royal Family will be welcome here, no use of any of their hotels here for any government functions, etc etc.
But as we can’t or won’t stand up to those who want to discriminate against gays here the chances of doing anthing about Brunei are about as great as Rees-Mogg talking sense or Arlene Foster being flexible.
JRM getting rattled and trying to bully the female R4 presenter is not a good look for him.
He is an absolute and utter ****.
Yep. When someone tries to draw some great distinction between the AfD and Le Pen's FN, you can assume that person didn't have much of a moral compass in the first place.
It took me a few seconds to figure out which one is supposed to be the good ones... I guess AFD considering the context but aren't FN if anything a bit less dodgy then AFD?
A very low bar which they could scrape over, although that is based on only a little knowledge.
I'd have said both are a bunch of racist ****s, but a low bar as you say.
I can genuinely see 1936 Mogg getting outraged about comparisons being made between sound patriot Hitler and vile Marxist Stalin.
I would say that there is very little difference between the divisive politics of the AfD and the SNP; their supporters both break windows of people they disagree with. Scottish Nationalist; the clue is in the name.
Moronic halfwit, back under your rock where you belong.
Surely Jezza will ask for a confirmatory GE as the price of cooperation now.
Listening to Barry Gardiner and Rebecca Long-Bailey, I do not believe the Labour leadership wants another referendum.
A referendum gets them nothing. Where they are lucky is that the option that is emerging as the front runner (CU of some flavour) is their policy more or less so they can state that not only is a GE best for the nation, it is simply reflecting the current reality also.
O/T - What do people think about Trudeau removing the two whistleblower MPs from his party caucus. Looks bad imo - the audio recording seems clear pressuring of the attormey general to me.
Current Betfair implied probabilities on leaving the EU:
This year: 51% Next year: 16% Some time: 7% Never: 25%
(Bit of licence used in describing the last two.)
I think "this year" is too high, and the others are value. It looks like it's highly likely that there's going to be an extension, and if there's an extension we're apparently talking at least 9 months, which gets you into next year. In theory they could leave before that, but if there's no pressure, it's unlikely to happen.
One possibility we need to start thinking about is managed no-deal. People have been saying "managed no-deal" previously as a euphemism for "insane high-speed car crash at 6 hours notice, which will somehow work out OK". But say you'd just won a Tory leadership contest on No Deal. You have some credibility as the No Deal guy that'll buy you some time, but you also don't want to blow up the economy and show everyone that you're a massively useless incompetent. What you'd want to do would be to actually plan for No Deal. You'd announce a date at least 6 months away, better 12 months or 18 months. And you, countries you trade with, and businesses who would now know when it was going to happen, could actually make plans for it.
Sky confirmed in absence of agreement with Corbyn TM will post indicative votes on monday and will go with the winning proposition
And what if there is no winning proposition? Aren’t we back to square one?
Enter AV...
I think the current political situation is so broken that some sort of PR may come in. Both parties are completely split and at least PR would give an opportunity for consensus government. What a bland tasteless future that would be.
Current Betfair implied probabilities on leaving the EU:
This year: 51% Next year: 16% Some time: 7% Never: 25%
(Bit of licence used in describing the last two.)
I think "this year" is too high, and the others are value. It looks like it's highly likely that there's going to be an extension, and if there's an extension we're apparently talking at least 9 months, which gets you into next year. In theory they could leave before that, but if there's no pressure, it's unlikely to happen.
One possibility we need to start thinking about is managed no-deal. People have been saying "managed no-deal" previously as a euphemism for "insane high-speed car crash at 6 hours notice, which will somehow work out OK". But say you'd just won a Tory leadership contest on No Deal. You have some credibility as the No Deal guy that'll buy you some time, but you also don't want to blow up the economy and show everyone that you're a massively useless incompetent. What you'd want to do would be to actually plan for No Deal. You'd announce a date at least 6 months away, better 12 months or 18 months. And you, countries you trade with, and businesses who would now know when it was going to happen, could actually make plans for it.
In betting terms its really dicey, as the most likely leaving point with a long extension is midnight 1 Jan 2020, but at CET time, which puts it at 11pm on 31 Dec 2019 UK time, this year! Ask Mr Glenn!
JRM getting rattled and trying to bully the female R4 presenter is not a good look for him.
He is an absolute and utter ****.
Yep. When someone tries to draw some great distinction between the AfD and Le Pen's FN, you can assume that person didn't have much of a moral compass in the first place.
It took me a few seconds to figure out which one is supposed to be the good ones... I guess AFD considering the context but aren't FN if anything a bit less dodgy then AFD?
A very low bar which they could scrape over, although that is based on only a little knowledge.
I'd have said both are a bunch of racist ****s, but a low bar as you say.
I can genuinely see 1936 Mogg getting outraged about comparisons being made between sound patriot Hitler and vile Marxist Stalin.
I would say that there is very little difference between the divisive politics of the AfD and the SNP; their supporters both break windows of people they disagree with. Scottish Nationalist; the clue is in the name.
Except that's not their name. Why are you gratuitously offensive about the SNP?
O/T - What do people think about Trudeau removing the two whistleblower MPs from his party caucus. Looks bad imo - the audio recording seems clear pressuring of the attormey general to me.
JRM getting rattled and trying to bully the female R4 presenter is not a good look for him.
He is an absolute and utter ****.
Yep. When someone tries to draw some great distinction between the AfD and Le Pen's FN, you can assume that person didn't have much of a moral compass in the first place.
It took me a few seconds to figure out which one is supposed to be the good ones... I guess AFD considering the context but aren't FN if anything a bit less dodgy then AFD?
A very low bar which they could scrape over, although that is based on only a little knowledge.
I'd have said both are a bunch of racist ****s, but a low bar as you say.
I can genuinely see 1936 Mogg getting outraged about comparisons being made between sound patriot Hitler and vile Marxist Stalin.
I would say that there is very little difference between the divisive politics of the AfD and the SNP; their supporters both break windows of people they disagree with. Scottish Nationalist; the clue is in the name.
It's not just the arglefarglebargle, it's that it's precisely the same arglefarglebargle every time. You're dumb AND unfunny, and I feel for you, but please jog on and squeak at someone else.
Sky confirmed in absence of agreement with Corbyn TM will post indicative votes on monday and will go with the winning proposition
And what if there is no winning proposition? Aren’t we back to square one?
Enter AV...
I think the current political situation is so broken that some sort of PR may come in. Both parties are completely split and at least PR would give an opportunity for consensus government. What a bland tasteless future that would be.
To be fair I was only thinking for the Indicative Votes!
I notice the media is still calling them indicative even though the suggestion is that on Monday they will be binding.
How about a referendum on getting rid of nuclear power?
What is it about complex technical subjects that makes people think they should be decided by random people with no relevant expertise based on a briefing from a facebook ad?
Dear Dear , how low has the UK fallen, banana republic here we come. It absolutely paints a vivid picture of how nasty and right wing the UK (England ) is nowadays.
Surely Jezza will ask for a confirmatory GE as the price of cooperation now.
Listening to Barry Gardiner and Rebecca Long-Bailey, I do not believe the Labour leadership wants another referendum.
But the vast majority of party members, a lot of Labour MPs and the Deputy Leader do. And if they do not get one some could well threaten defect to TIG. Whereas Labour opponents of a referendum have nowhere else to go and little leverage in the party - they are hardly going to join the ERG. So Corbyn will have to tread very carefully and it's hard to see how he can come to an agreement with May that does not involve either a referendum or a general election, and obviously he will go for the latter if he can.
So May has finally made her choice and it is not to the advantage of the ERG position. Who would have thought that that could happen? Pretty much anybody with average intelligence I would say which of course leaves a lot of ERG members in the dark. They will probably still get a Brexit although that remains less than guaranteed but it will be a much softer Brexit than they could have had by supporting May's deal from the outset.
The priority remains getting this sorted. The economy has surprised even me with its robust response to our imminent departure but investment and capital spending are undoubtedly being affected by people not knowing what the rules might be in 8 days time. The irresponsibility of our political class has consequences, as the ERG are now finding out.
Was that you on GMS yesterday David, Was a David L spokesman for Advocates on.
Nope. I was in the Sheriff Appeal Court yesterday minding my own business.
Sky confirmed in absence of agreement with Corbyn TM will post indicative votes on monday and will go with the winning proposition
And what if there is no winning proposition? Aren’t we back to square one?
Enter AV...
I think the current political situation is so broken that some sort of PR may come in. Both parties are completely split and at least PR would give an opportunity for consensus government. What a bland tasteless future that would be.
Consensus about what? The Cameroons are Blairites and the Blairites are Cameroons? The logic of FPTP has pushed those on the left and right into two broad church parties: Labour and Conservative. PR might or might not lead to centrism but if the electorate wanted right-tilted centrism, it is already on offer from the LibDems, currently languishing in fourth or fifth depending how you count the TIGgers and assorted independents.
O/T - What do people think about Trudeau removing the two whistleblower MPs from his party caucus. Looks bad imo - the audio recording seems clear pressuring of the attormey general to me.
Surely Jezza will ask for a confirmatory GE as the price of cooperation now.
Listening to Barry Gardiner and Rebecca Long-Bailey, I do not believe the Labour leadership wants another referendum.
But the vast majority of party members, a lot of Labour MPs and the Deputy Leader do. And if they do not get one some could well threaten defect to TIG. Whereas Labour opponents of a referendum have nowhere else to go and little leverage in the party - they are hardly going to join the ERG. So Corbyn will have to tread very carefully and it's hard to see how he can come to an agreement with May that does not involve either a referendum or a general election, and obviously he will go for the latter if he can.
A GE deals nicely with his tiggers in that most of them will lose their seats.
Current Betfair implied probabilities on leaving the EU:
This year: 51% Next year: 16% Some time: 7% Never: 25%
(Bit of licence used in describing the last two.)
I think "this year" is too high, and the others are value. It looks like it's highly likely that there's going to be an extension, and if there's an extension we're apparently talking at least 9 months, which gets you into next year. In theory they could leave before that, but if there's no pressure, it's unlikely to happen.
One possibility we need to start thinking about is managed no-deal. People have been saying "managed no-deal" previously as a euphemism for "insane high-speed car crash at 6 hours notice, which will somehow work out OK". But say you'd just won a Tory leadership contest on No Deal. You have some credibility as the No Deal guy that'll buy you some time, but you also don't want to blow up the economy and show everyone that you're a massively useless incompetent. What you'd want to do would be to actually plan for No Deal. You'd announce a date at least 6 months away, better 12 months or 18 months. And you, countries you trade with, and businesses who would now know when it was going to happen, could actually make plans for it.
In betting terms its really dicey, as the most likely leaving point with a long extension is midnight 1 Jan 2020, but at CET time, which puts it at 11pm on 31 Dec 2019 UK time, this year! Ask Mr Glenn!
In that instance I think a void bet between @WilliamGlenn and @SeanT would be fair.
Makes you wonder what's going to happen when Jezza becomes Prime Minister in a few weeks?
Given the way the establishment has tried to frustrate Brexit at every turn what lengths with they go to to try and remove Corbyn?
I think we should have a confirmatory referendum on whether or not Corbyn can become PM if Labour 'wins'. After all people won't have voted for an SNP stitch up.
So May has finally made her choice and it is not to the advantage of the ERG position. Who would have thought that that could happen? Pretty much anybody with average intelligence I would say which of course leaves a lot of ERG members in the dark. They will probably still get a Brexit although that remains less than guaranteed but it will be a much softer Brexit than they could have had by supporting May's deal from the outset.
The priority remains getting this sorted. The economy has surprised even me with its robust response to our imminent departure but investment and capital spending are undoubtedly being affected by people not knowing what the rules might be in 8 days time. The irresponsibility of our political class has consequences, as the ERG are now finding out.
Was that you on GMS yesterday David, Was a David L spokesman for Advocates on.
Nope. I was in the Sheriff Appeal Court yesterday minding my own business.
I thought maybe you were hitting the big time on GMS.
Dear Dear , how low has the UK fallen, banana republic here we come. It absolutely paints a vivid picture of how nasty and right wing the UK (England ) is nowadays.
Twat. I'm sure 2 PARA have similar japes.
(By 1948 the battalion was one of only three Regular Army parachute battalions remaining in the British Army. In June these battalions were renumbered and the 5th (Scottish) Parachute Battalion became the present day 2nd Battalion, Parachute Regiment.)
JRM getting rattled and trying to bully the female R4 presenter is not a good look for him.
He is an absolute and utter ****.
Yep. When someone tries to draw some great distinction between the AfD and Le Pen's FN, you can assume that person didn't have much of a moral compass in the first place.
It took me a few seconds to figure out which one is supposed to be the good ones... I guess AFD considering the context but aren't FN if anything a bit less dodgy then AFD?
A very low bar which they could scrape over, although that is based on only a little knowledge.
I'd have said both are a bunch of racist ****s, but a low bar as you say.
I can genuinely see 1936 Mogg getting outraged about comparisons being made between sound patriot Hitler and vile Marxist Stalin.
I would say that there is very little difference between the divisive politics of the AfD and the SNP; their supporters both break windows of people they disagree with. Scottish Nationalist; the clue is in the name.
Total violence on the Yes side during the 2014 Independence referendum: two eggs thrown.
Comments
Opinion polls change and they're not always right. June 23rd was a win for Remain then?
Two years after most GEs, the winning party are usually down in the polls. Mind you, an opinion poll would be a lot cheaper than holding a GE, but you'd need to check them every month. Swing doors in the HoC?
I can genuinely see 1936 Mogg getting outraged about comparisons being made between sound patriot Hitler and vile Marxist Stalin.
Labour MPs in Leave-voting seats took it down. They had the numbers to do right by their voters. To date, they have chosen not to.
You can argue against a referendum and there are strong arguments against a fresh referendum. But if there is a fresh referendum, it is absolutely non-negotiable that what appears to be by far the most popular single option is on the paper.
And as you know Arsenal are never more at risk of losing than when they are 1-0 up and anyway I am not taking down my posters of Mark Francois and Andrew Bridgen and that tennis girl for anyone.
12pm - PMQs. Mostly obscure backbenchers listed for Qs
Then a couple bits of brief business
c. 1pm - Business Motion from Letwin/Cooper providing for their Bill
Three procedural amendments tabled (Speaker's decision on whether to take):
B: ERG to reduce the available time and delete the restrictions on filibuster
C: Leaver MPs to require a two thirds majority at Second Reading
A: Remainer MPs to continue the MPs' own indicative vote process on Monday
Procedural Debate must conclude for a vote by 5pm
Main Motion Debate must conclude for a vote by 10pm
I believe amendments to the main motion can be tabled before it reaches Second Reading, but there are none tabled in advance for the Order Paper
I agree. Solemn promises are an important issue. I had a little sympathy for the LDs on tuition fees, because they weren't governing on their own and weren't in total control, but once you knowingly lie to the electorate about your policies, that makes a mockery of representative democracy.
Having your fingers crossed behind your backs isn't sufficient excuse.
How different would Brexit have turned out?
The ERG have been the useful idiots in allowing Labour Leave MPs the cover to shout "Look - ERG squirrel!"
I’m with Mr Meeks on this one: a referendum on whatever deal finally gets cooked vs Remain.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_National_Party
She would probably have told the EU to piss off on the negotiation structure. That could have gone either way. I also think it likely she would also have planned for No Deal from the off. That may have had early doors Cabinet resignations. But defections?
I suspect we would have had a Canada-style deal in the bag with Tusk. Ireland border would still be fun and games. But maybe with some more creative thinking....
Why on Earth would they want a referendum that will further split Sunderland from London when they can have a general election and begin the UK's first Marxist government?
They voted for her.
Yesterday's long cabinet demonstrates the delicate balance within Cabinet, which May is able to straddle given her political positioning. Trying to run the process from the Leave side would surely have alienated more of the House by now.
After all, if they fail to reach agreement, a Referendum option is going to be up before them on Monday anyway.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-47754193
He is in risky territory here though, if he doesn't demand some sort of referendum as well as the customs Union he may well end up in trouble in an election. Actually being in a position to implement his own Brexit plan, and still not going for a second vote, may be the final straw. If you look at the Owen Jones types of supporters, the argument so far has been that Labour are powerless to get a second vote through because of the tory majority. That argument becomes much more tricky once he is deciding policy with the government.
or help prop up London's 5 star hotels.
Sadly, I fear you're right about the government's lack of action
Anyone know how the Canadian General Election is set?
How about a referendum on getting rid of nuclear power? I'd vote against but if we lost 52 - 48, I'd wouldn't expect us to get rid of 52% of the nuclear stations but leave 48% to appease me and the other losers.
All political systems have faults, but without good faith, they're all useless.
But as we can’t or won’t stand up to those who want to discriminate against gays here the chances of doing anthing about Brunei are about as great as Rees-Mogg talking sense or Arlene Foster being flexible.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_2019_Canadian_federal_election
Is there a single institution in this country that isn’t totally and utterly ****ed?
One possibility we need to start thinking about is managed no-deal. People have been saying "managed no-deal" previously as a euphemism for "insane high-speed car crash at 6 hours notice, which will somehow work out OK". But say you'd just won a Tory leadership contest on No Deal. You have some credibility as the No Deal guy that'll buy you some time, but you also don't want to blow up the economy and show everyone that you're a massively useless incompetent. What you'd want to do would be to actually plan for No Deal. You'd announce a date at least 6 months away, better 12 months or 18 months. And you, countries you trade with, and businesses who would now know when it was going to happen, could actually make plans for it.
I notice the media is still calling them indicative even though the suggestion is that on Monday they will be binding.
Given the way the establishment has tried to frustrate Brexit at every turn what lengths with they go to to try and remove Corbyn?
Though he makes himself look more than a bit like Trump.
Edited extra bit: possibly*.
(By 1948 the battalion was one of only three Regular Army parachute battalions remaining in the British Army. In June these battalions were renumbered and the 5th (Scottish) Parachute Battalion became the present day 2nd Battalion, Parachute Regiment.)