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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the betting markets a no deal Brexit moves from a 37% chanc

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  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    CD13 said:


    How about a referendum on getting rid of nuclear power?


    May would only ban certain types of reactor. And only those in Dorset. And they wouldn't be banned - just shut on Sundays. In February. During leap years.

    Happy ?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    Miss Cyclefree, but if we don't crack down on whistleblowers there might be more of them in the future. And then where would we be?


    I know. Imagine: we might actually have to deal with the bad things that people bring to our attention.

    That army video - if correct - is very troubling. Wasn’t there a soldier recently convicted (and expelled from the army) for belonging to one of the banned fascist terrorist organisations? The army had better get onto this quick.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    So May has finally made her choice and it is not to the advantage of the ERG position. Who would have thought that that could happen? Pretty much anybody with average intelligence I would say which of course leaves a lot of ERG members in the dark. They will probably still get a Brexit although that remains less than guaranteed but it will be a much softer Brexit than they could have had by supporting May's deal from the outset.

    The priority remains getting this sorted. The economy has surprised even me with its robust response to our imminent departure but investment and capital spending are undoubtedly being affected by people not knowing what the rules might be in 8 days time. The irresponsibility of our political class has consequences, as the ERG are now finding out.

    Was that you on GMS yesterday David, Was a David L spokesman for Advocates on.
    Nope. I was in the Sheriff Appeal Court yesterday minding my own business.
    Were you found guilty ?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,008
    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    So May has finally made her choice and it is not to the advantage of the ERG position. Who would have thought that that could happen? Pretty much anybody with average intelligence I would say which of course leaves a lot of ERG members in the dark. They will probably still get a Brexit although that remains less than guaranteed but it will be a much softer Brexit than they could have had by supporting May's deal from the outset.

    The priority remains getting this sorted. The economy has surprised even me with its robust response to our imminent departure but investment and capital spending are undoubtedly being affected by people not knowing what the rules might be in 8 days time. The irresponsibility of our political class has consequences, as the ERG are now finding out.

    Was that you on GMS yesterday David, Was a David L spokesman for Advocates on.
    Nope. I was in the Sheriff Appeal Court yesterday minding my own business.
    Hope you got off.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    RoyalBlue said:

    Wow.

    Is there a single institution in this country that isn’t totally and utterly ****ed?
    LOL. This isn't even in the worst 1,000 moral outrages 3 PARA have ever done.

    Also LOL at range shooting with airsoft. I wouldn't lower myself.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    edited April 2019
    Mr Edmund,

    "What is it about complex technical subjects that makes people think they should be decided by random people."

    I would vote against, but you're missing the point. Democracy doesn't ask for expertise in a given subject and nor should it. Scientists get it wrong too. I used to get enquiries from the public and some were verging on moronic, but at least, they were interested enough to ask.


    Edit: What makes you think politicians are any better than random people? Moronic would be a compliment for some.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    Nigelb said:

    malcolmg said:

    O/T - What do people think about Trudeau removing the two whistleblower MPs from his party caucus. Looks bad imo - the audio recording seems clear pressuring of the attormey general to me.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-47754193

    He makes Trump look Presidential
    He really doesn't.
    Though he makes himself look more than a bit like Trump.
    It was a bit tongue in cheek re Trump but you got my gist.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Miss Cyclefree, think it was about three years ago, Irish chap with a penchant for explosives. Pipe bombs, perhaps.

    Also, whilst not a Corbyn fan in any way, that's entirely inappropriate for the army.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Scott_P said:
    Well, this is going to be a fun day. Loads of Ministers no-one has ever heard of with no discernible achievements to their name impress us all with their ability to sign a letter.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    Miss Cyclefree, think it was about three years ago, Irish chap with a penchant for explosives. Pipe bombs, perhaps.

    Also, whilst not a Corbyn fan in any way, that's entirely inappropriate for the army.

    Morris squaddies have feelings too, you know.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019

    Blue_rog said:

    IanB2 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Sky confirmed in absence of agreement with Corbyn TM will post indicative votes on monday and will go with the winning proposition

    And what if there is no winning proposition? Aren’t we back to square one?
    Enter AV...
    I think the current political situation is so broken that some sort of PR may come in. Both parties are completely split and at least PR would give an opportunity for consensus government. What a bland tasteless future that would be.
    Consensus about what? The Cameroons are Blairites and the Blairites are Cameroons? The logic of FPTP has pushed those on the left and right into two broad church parties: Labour and Conservative. PR might or might not lead to centrism but if the electorate wanted right-tilted centrism, it is already on offer from the LibDems, currently languishing in fourth or fifth depending how you count the TIGgers and assorted independents.
    I was thinking of the two main parties fracturing into several different factions. With PR, you might get different factions with broadly similar views entering into coalition. As I said, a bland, tasteless future.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219
    Cyclefree said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Wow.

    Is there a single institution in this country that isn’t totally and utterly ****ed?
    The RHS?
    Probably a good leave majority amongst the membership :)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Cyclefree said:

    Well, this is going to be a fun day. Loads of Ministers no-one has ever heard of with no discernible achievements to their name impress us all with their ability to sign a letter.

    https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/1063010554179137536
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    Chris said:

    Current Betfair implied probabilities on leaving the EU:

    This year: 51%
    Next year: 16%
    Some time: 7%
    Never: 25%

    (Bit of licence used in describing the last two.)

    I think "this year" is too high, and the others are value. It looks like it's highly likely that there's going to be an extension, and if there's an extension we're apparently talking at least 9 months, which gets you into next year. In theory they could leave before that, but if there's no pressure, it's unlikely to happen.

    One possibility we need to start thinking about is managed no-deal. People have been saying "managed no-deal" previously as a euphemism for "insane high-speed car crash at 6 hours notice, which will somehow work out OK". But say you'd just won a Tory leadership contest on No Deal. You have some credibility as the No Deal guy that'll buy you some time, but you also don't want to blow up the economy and show everyone that you're a massively useless incompetent. What you'd want to do would be to actually plan for No Deal. You'd announce a date at least 6 months away, better 12 months or 18 months. And you, countries you trade with, and businesses who would now know when it was going to happen, could actually make plans for it.
    In betting terms its really dicey, as the most likely leaving point with a long extension is midnight 1 Jan 2020, but at CET time, which puts it at 11pm on 31 Dec 2019 UK time, this year! Ask Mr Glenn!
    In that instance I think a void bet between @WilliamGlenn and @SeanT would be fair.
    Betfair might have some issues as well. Their terms simply refer to the "date" on which we exit, with the small print referring to the date within the Withdrawal Agreement. As I understand it the WA works from CET?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    TOPPING said:

    malcolmg said:

    Dear Dear , how low has the UK fallen, banana republic here we come. It absolutely paints a vivid picture of how nasty and right wing the UK (England ) is nowadays.
    Twat. I'm sure 2 PARA have similar japes.

    (By 1948 the battalion was one of only three Regular Army parachute battalions remaining in the British Army. In June these battalions were renumbered and the 5th (Scottish) Parachute Battalion became the present day 2nd Battalion, Parachute Regiment.)
    Our armed forces are as decrepit as our governments nowadays, UK is rotten to the core. Fish rot from the head. Sure the decent Scottish lads would have nothing to do with those types of shenanigans.
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    edited April 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    Cyclefree said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Wow.

    Is there a single institution in this country that isn’t totally and utterly ****ed?
    The RHS?
    Probably a good leave majority amongst the membership :)
    Yes they could have stuck up a pic of Verhofstadt or Selmayr at least.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Cyclefree said:

    Miss Cyclefree, but if we don't crack down on whistleblowers there might be more of them in the future. And then where would we be?


    I know. Imagine: we might actually have to deal with the bad things that people bring to our attention.

    That army video - if correct - is very troubling. Wasn’t there a soldier recently convicted (and expelled from the army) for belonging to one of the banned fascist terrorist organisations? The army had better get onto this quick.
    Shades of the 1970s and retired colonels organising private armies for military coups against the Labour government, or at a lower level, the tasteless humour of the rail/air strike banner after the Falklands? That's the question.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219
    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    Chris said:

    Current Betfair implied probabilities on leaving the EU:

    This year: 51%
    Next year: 16%
    Some time: 7%
    Never: 25%

    (Bit of licence used in describing the last two.)

    I think "this year" is too high, and the others are value. It looks like it's highly likely that there's going to be an extension, and if there's an extension we're apparently talking at least 9 months, which gets you into next year. In theory they could leave before that, but if there's no pressure, it's unlikely to happen.

    One possibility we need to start thinking about is managed no-deal. People have been saying "managed no-deal" previously as a euphemism for "insane high-speed car crash at 6 hours notice, which will somehow work out OK". But say you'd just won a Tory leadership contest on No Deal. You have some credibility as the No Deal guy that'll buy you some time, but you also don't want to blow up the economy and show everyone that you're a massively useless incompetent. What you'd want to do would be to actually plan for No Deal. You'd announce a date at least 6 months away, better 12 months or 18 months. And you, countries you trade with, and businesses who would now know when it was going to happen, could actually make plans for it.
    In betting terms its really dicey, as the most likely leaving point with a long extension is midnight 1 Jan 2020, but at CET time, which puts it at 11pm on 31 Dec 2019 UK time, this year! Ask Mr Glenn!
    In that instance I think a void bet between @WilliamGlenn and @SeanT would be fair.
    Betfair might have some issues as well. Their terms simply refer to the "date" on which we exit, with the small print referring to the date within the Withdrawal Agreement. As I understand it the WA works from CET?
    Oh ye Betfair has to settle up one way or another. I had some bets in 2015 on SNP 50+/-% that I'm still not sure to this day which way the market settled.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    Dura_Ace said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Wow.

    Is there a single institution in this country that isn’t totally and utterly ****ed?
    LOL. This isn't even in the worst 1,000 moral outrages 3 PARA have ever done.

    Also LOL at range shooting with airsoft. I wouldn't lower myself.
    Given way they work nowadays I am surprised it wasn't pea shooters.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Pulpstar said:

    Cyclefree said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Wow.

    Is there a single institution in this country that isn’t totally and utterly ****ed?
    The RHS?
    Probably a good leave majority amongst the membership :)
    Not sure about that. Think about where most of our plants and flowers come from: immigrants the lot of them - and very welcome they are too!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,253
    What an opportunity for Jeremy to look pragmatic and Prime Ministerial and the early indications are that he will make the most of it.

    He has certainly made an excellent start with that photo this morning. Note the glasses perched halfway down his nose. It looks suitably serious for what is after all a serious situation. More to the point, he needs his spectacles to read the document in front of him, therefore that he is wearing them shows that he is all over this.

    And what is that document he is studying? This is the best sign of all. It is not the Withdrawal Agreement that everyone knows cannot be changed. No, it is the POLITICAL DECLARATION which (albeit meaningless) is now the heart of the matter and has the additional benefit of being much shorter and less unpleasant to wade through.

    The whole image says compromise, concentration, judgment, wood from the trees, national interest.

    But all of this great PR will be in vain if he does not go on to achieve what must be the objective - fail to reach an agreement with the PM while appearing to want one.

    That could prove difficult if the 'red lines' really have gone for a burton. How is he going to pull off a No Agreement if Mrs May is caving in left right and centre to his demands? That is the real challenge here and all the photos in the world will not help if Jeremy is not up to it. So is Jeremy up to it?

    Yes, I rather think he is.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_P said:
    Well, this is going to be a fun day. Loads of Ministers no-one has ever heard of with no discernible achievements to their name impress us all with their ability to sign a letter.
    Jobs for the boys ( girls) does not cover it, as you say all unknown nonentities supping at the trough.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Blue_rog said:

    Blue_rog said:

    IanB2 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Sky confirmed in absence of agreement with Corbyn TM will post indicative votes on monday and will go with the winning proposition

    And what if there is no winning proposition? Aren’t we back to square one?
    Enter AV...
    I think the current political situation is so broken that some sort of PR may come in. Both parties are completely split and at least PR would give an opportunity for consensus government. What a bland tasteless future that would be.
    Consensus about what? The Cameroons are Blairites and the Blairites are Cameroons? The logic of FPTP has pushed those on the left and right into two broad church parties: Labour and Conservative. PR might or might not lead to centrism but if the electorate wanted right-tilted centrism, it is already on offer from the LibDems, currently languishing in fourth or fifth depending how you count the TIGgers and assorted independents.
    I was thinking of the two main parties fracturing into several different factions. With PR, you might get different factions with broadly similar views entering into coalition. As I said, a bland, tasteless future.
    You might indeed but what then? If the left wing factions band together, and the right wing factions band together, then we have just recreated the Labour and Conservative Parties. If, on the other hand, the centrists band together, then we will have imposed upon us a government no-one wants. We know no-one wants it because absolutely no-one (within a margin of error) votes for its current proponents, the LibDems.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,725
    kinabalu said:

    But all of this great PR will be in vain if he does not go on to achieve what must be the objective - fail to reach an agreement with the PM while appearing to want one.

    That could prove difficult if the 'red lines' really have gone for a burton. How is he going to pull off a No Agreement if Mrs May is caving in left right and centre to his demands? That is the real challenge here and all the photos in the world will not help if Jeremy is not up to it. So is Jeremy up to it?

    Yes, I rather think he is.

    "We were ready to agree to a customs union with a say for Britain in trade deals, but Theresa May has botched the negotiations with the EU again."
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    Norm said:

    TOPPING said:

    Surely Jezza will ask for a confirmatory GE as the price of cooperation now.

    Listening to Barry Gardiner and Rebecca Long-Bailey, I do not believe the Labour leadership wants another referendum.
    But the vast majority of party members, a lot of Labour MPs and the Deputy Leader do. And if they do not get one some could well threaten defect to TIG. Whereas Labour opponents of a referendum have nowhere else to go and little leverage in the party - they are hardly going to join the ERG. So Corbyn will have to tread very carefully and it's hard to see how he can come to an agreement with May that does not involve either a referendum or a general election, and obviously he will go for the latter if he can.
    A GE deals nicely with his tiggers in that most of them will lose their seats.
    Certainly. I can't see Corbyn signing up to a Tory Brexit plan, goes against his nature. But he might come up with an agreed shortlist list of options to put to the Commons, which might perhaps be CU, CU/SM and EEA, and a referendum could be tacked on to any of those. If the alternative is a general election some of the more moderate Tories might decide that a referendum is the lesser evil.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    kinabalu said:

    What an opportunity for Jeremy to look pragmatic and Prime Ministerial and the early indications are that he will make the most of it.

    He has certainly made an excellent start with that photo this morning. Note the glasses perched halfway down his nose. It looks suitably serious for what is after all a serious situation. More to the point, he needs his spectacles to read the document in front of him, therefore that he is wearing them shows that he is all over this.

    And what is that document he is studying? This is the best sign of all. It is not the Withdrawal Agreement that everyone knows cannot be changed. No, it is the POLITICAL DECLARATION which (albeit meaningless) is now the heart of the matter and has the additional benefit of being much shorter and less unpleasant to wade through.

    The whole image says compromise, concentration, judgment, wood from the trees, national interest.

    But all of this great PR will be in vain if he does not go on to achieve what must be the objective - fail to reach an agreement with the PM while appearing to want one.

    That could prove difficult if the 'red lines' really have gone for a burton. How is he going to pull off a No Agreement if Mrs May is caving in left right and centre to his demands? That is the real challenge here and all the photos in the world will not help if Jeremy is not up to it. So is Jeremy up to it?

    Yes, I rather think he is.

    Theresa May spent seven hours yesterday not reaching agreement with her own Cabinet. She has spent the last two years not compromising with anyone. Why will it be different this time?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,875
    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    So May has finally made her choice and it is not to the advantage of the ERG position. Who would have thought that that could happen? Pretty much anybody with average intelligence I would say which of course leaves a lot of ERG members in the dark. They will probably still get a Brexit although that remains less than guaranteed but it will be a much softer Brexit than they could have had by supporting May's deal from the outset.

    The priority remains getting this sorted. The economy has surprised even me with its robust response to our imminent departure but investment and capital spending are undoubtedly being affected by people not knowing what the rules might be in 8 days time. The irresponsibility of our political class has consequences, as the ERG are now finding out.

    Was that you on GMS yesterday David, Was a David L spokesman for Advocates on.
    Nope. I was in the Sheriff Appeal Court yesterday minding my own business.
    I thought maybe you were hitting the big time on GMS.
    What is GMS?
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Scott_P said:
    They normally happen in 30 minute intervals into PMQs
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,875
    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_P said:
    Well, this is going to be a fun day. Loads of Ministers no-one has ever heard of with no discernible achievements to their name impress us all with their ability to sign a letter.
    I've no doubt that the lamentations and rending of garments in Wales will be resounding.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,875

    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    So May has finally made her choice and it is not to the advantage of the ERG position. Who would have thought that that could happen? Pretty much anybody with average intelligence I would say which of course leaves a lot of ERG members in the dark. They will probably still get a Brexit although that remains less than guaranteed but it will be a much softer Brexit than they could have had by supporting May's deal from the outset.

    The priority remains getting this sorted. The economy has surprised even me with its robust response to our imminent departure but investment and capital spending are undoubtedly being affected by people not knowing what the rules might be in 8 days time. The irresponsibility of our political class has consequences, as the ERG are now finding out.

    Was that you on GMS yesterday David, Was a David L spokesman for Advocates on.
    Nope. I was in the Sheriff Appeal Court yesterday minding my own business.
    Hope you got off.
    For now Divvie, for now.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,008
    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    So May has finally made her choice and it is not to the advantage of the ERG position. Who would have thought that that could happen? Pretty much anybody with average intelligence I would say which of course leaves a lot of ERG members in the dark. They will probably still get a Brexit although that remains less than guaranteed but it will be a much softer Brexit than they could have had by supporting May's deal from the outset.

    The priority remains getting this sorted. The economy has surprised even me with its robust response to our imminent departure but investment and capital spending are undoubtedly being affected by people not knowing what the rules might be in 8 days time. The irresponsibility of our political class has consequences, as the ERG are now finding out.

    Was that you on GMS yesterday David, Was a David L spokesman for Advocates on.
    Nope. I was in the Sheriff Appeal Court yesterday minding my own business.
    I thought maybe you were hitting the big time on GMS.
    What is GMS?
    Good Morning Scotland, often described unkindly as an oxymoron.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Norm said:

    TOPPING said:

    Surely Jezza will ask for a confirmatory GE as the price of cooperation now.

    Listening to Barry Gardiner and Rebecca Long-Bailey, I do not believe the Labour leadership wants another referendum.
    But the vast majority of party members, a lot of Labour MPs and the Deputy Leader do. And if they do not get one some could well threaten defect to TIG. Whereas Labour opponents of a referendum have nowhere else to go and little leverage in the party - they are hardly going to join the ERG. So Corbyn will have to tread very carefully and it's hard to see how he can come to an agreement with May that does not involve either a referendum or a general election, and obviously he will go for the latter if he can.
    A GE deals nicely with his tiggers in that most of them will lose their seats.
    Certainly. I can't see Corbyn signing up to a Tory Brexit plan, goes against his nature. But he might come up with an agreed shortlist list of options to put to the Commons, which might perhaps be CU, CU/SM and EEA, and a referendum could be tacked on to any of those. If the alternative is a general election some of the more moderate Tories might decide that a referendum is the lesser evil.

    Lets face it - post a GE neither Corbyn or whoever else might be PM will be bound by very much of this.



  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    TOPPING said:



    Twat. I'm sure 2 PARA have similar japes.

    I am quite sure that civvies have little idea of what the average inmate of the "Maroon Machine" is really like.

    I saw some scholar from 2 PARA swim across a giant open air cesspit at Kandahar airfield on a very hot day to win $10 from some very impressed US Rakkasans.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    TOPPING said:

    JRM getting rattled and trying to bully the female R4 presenter is not a good look for him.

    He is an absolute and utter ****.

    Yep.
    When someone tries to draw some great distinction between the AfD and Le Pen's FN, you can assume that person didn't have much of a moral compass in the first place.
    It took me a few seconds to figure out which one is supposed to be the good ones... I guess AFD considering the context but aren't FN if anything a bit less dodgy then AFD?

    A very low bar which they could scrape over, although that is based on only a little knowledge.
    I'd have said both are a bunch of racist ****s, but a low bar as you say.

    I can genuinely see 1936 Mogg getting outraged about comparisons being made between sound patriot Hitler and vile Marxist Stalin.
    I would say that there is very little difference between the divisive politics of the AfD and the SNP; their supporters both break windows of people they disagree with. Scottish Nationalist; the clue is in the name.
    It's not just the arglefarglebargle, it's that it's precisely the same arglefarglebargle every time. You're dumb AND unfunny, and I feel for you, but please jog on and squeak at someone else.
    If an AfD equivalent ever emerges in Britain, I vote we call them Argle Fargle Bargle instead of AfB.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    malcolmg said:

    TOPPING said:

    malcolmg said:

    Dear Dear , how low has the UK fallen, banana republic here we come. It absolutely paints a vivid picture of how nasty and right wing the UK (England ) is nowadays.
    Twat. I'm sure 2 PARA have similar japes.

    (By 1948 the battalion was one of only three Regular Army parachute battalions remaining in the British Army. In June these battalions were renumbered and the 5th (Scottish) Parachute Battalion became the present day 2nd Battalion, Parachute Regiment.)
    Our armed forces are as decrepit as our governments nowadays, UK is rotten to the core. Fish rot from the head. Sure the decent Scottish lads would have nothing to do with those types of shenanigans.
    LOL.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    I think she can be sure that Jezza will gently lead the discussion away from that one!!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Artist said:
    Yep. Precisely what I thought last night (the bit about future PM tearing it all up).

    Boris will start again to be honest with the only PD.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,875

    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    So May has finally made her choice and it is not to the advantage of the ERG position. Who would have thought that that could happen? Pretty much anybody with average intelligence I would say which of course leaves a lot of ERG members in the dark. They will probably still get a Brexit although that remains less than guaranteed but it will be a much softer Brexit than they could have had by supporting May's deal from the outset.

    The priority remains getting this sorted. The economy has surprised even me with its robust response to our imminent departure but investment and capital spending are undoubtedly being affected by people not knowing what the rules might be in 8 days time. The irresponsibility of our political class has consequences, as the ERG are now finding out.

    Was that you on GMS yesterday David, Was a David L spokesman for Advocates on.
    Nope. I was in the Sheriff Appeal Court yesterday minding my own business.
    I thought maybe you were hitting the big time on GMS.
    What is GMS?
    Good Morning Scotland, often described unkindly as an oxymoron.
    Oh right, I was on that many years ago but not recently.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Dura_Ace said:

    TOPPING said:



    Twat. I'm sure 2 PARA have similar japes.

    I am quite sure that civvies have little idea of what the average inmate of the "Maroon Machine" is really like.

    I saw some scholar from 2 PARA swim across a giant open air cesspit at Kandahar airfield on a very hot day to win $10 from some very impressed US Rakkasans.
    Our ops rooms had more or less a hotline to the Sinn Fein councillor up the road where PARA REG were having their larks.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    When do Labour fall apart over a second vote ?

    Can’t see this ending well for Labour . Corbyn needs to avoid having Labour fingerprints anywhere near Brexit .

    And the membership overwhelmingly wants to stay in the EU and wants a second vote.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219

    I think she can be sure that Jezza will gently lead the discussion away from that one!!
    Labour policy is for a confirmatory referendum on a 'bad Tory Brexit' if a General Election can't be secured.

    I think Jezza will follow it to the letter.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited April 2019

    I think she can be sure that Jezza will gently lead the discussion away from that one!!
    Indeed. Hed already said a labour negotiated Brexit wont need a PV. And hes not gonna give the public a chance to nay something hes got a hand in. Would mean labour front bench having to openly campaign for Brexit in a referendum too.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,875
    Artist said:
    This completely misses the point. Corbyn doesn't want a referendum, he wants another election before everyone finally agrees that he is just too old as well as too stupid. He's an old man in a hurry and the price will be an election so that a new government can determine the future relationship with the EU.

    Which, by the way, is the correct answer.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    Cyclefree said:

    Sky confirmed in absence of agreement with Corbyn TM will post indicative votes on monday and will go with the winning proposition

    And what if there is no winning proposition? Aren’t we back to square one?
    *No Deal waves*
    Not waving, but drowning.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    Dura_Ace said:

    TOPPING said:



    Twat. I'm sure 2 PARA have similar japes.

    I am quite sure that civvies have little idea of what the average inmate of the "Maroon Machine" is really like.

    I saw some scholar from 2 PARA swim across a giant open air cesspit at Kandahar airfield on a very hot day to win $10 from some very impressed US Rakkasans.
    joe joe joe joe joe
    joe joe joe joe joe
    joe joe joe joe joe
    joe joe joe joe joe
    joe joe joe joe joe
    joe joe joe joe joe
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    Artist said:
    Yep. Precisely what I thought last night (the bit about future PM tearing it all up).

    Boris will start again to be honest with the only PD.
    I really do not think this argument is as strong as people say.

    It relies on:

    - May being replaced by a Brexiteer
    - Said Brexiteer choosing the difficult option of ripping everything up instead of the easy option of bending it a bit
    - Not being able to punish said treatchery at the polls
    - The EU agreeing to move from their agreed position and
    - Most importantly, PM getting a majority in the House of Commons behind not only hard Brexit but also one on the above basis!
  • The point about the no-referendumers having nowhere to go in Labour is a good one. Who have they got to defect to ? At the same time the willingness for that has to come from Corbyn, and I haven't seen it so far.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    HYUFD said:

    CD13 said:

    I should have said I've no problems with a confirmatory referendum. Do you want the agreed deal? Yes or no? But where does a remain option come from?

    From the fact that it is currently by far the most popular option in the opinion polls at present and may well command a majority even before any run-off took place.
    Actually Deltapoll at the weekend had Deal plus Customs Union and Common Market 2.0 more popular on a net basis than revoke and Remain, Yougov yesterday even had Leave with No Deal just ahead of Remain as the voters preferred option on a forced choice if the EU refuse a further extension

    Leave was ahead of revoke in that poll, not remain, which is actually quite an important difference.

  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    The SNP wil make the most of the stitch up narrative .

    Tories and Labour in cahoots .
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    TGOHF said:

    Norm said:

    TOPPING said:

    Surely Jezza will ask for a confirmatory GE as the price of cooperation now.

    Listening to Barry Gardiner and Rebecca Long-Bailey, I do not believe the Labour leadership wants another referendum.
    But the vast majority of party members, a lot of Labour MPs and the Deputy Leader do. And if they do not get one some could well threaten defect to TIG. Whereas Labour opponents of a referendum have nowhere else to go and little leverage in the party - they are hardly going to join the ERG. So Corbyn will have to tread very carefully and it's hard to see how he can come to an agreement with May that does not involve either a referendum or a general election, and obviously he will go for the latter if he can.
    A GE deals nicely with his tiggers in that most of them will lose their seats.
    Certainly. I can't see Corbyn signing up to a Tory Brexit plan, goes against his nature. But he might come up with an agreed shortlist list of options to put to the Commons, which might perhaps be CU, CU/SM and EEA, and a referendum could be tacked on to any of those. If the alternative is a general election some of the more moderate Tories might decide that a referendum is the lesser evil.

    Lets face it - post a GE neither Corbyn or whoever else might be PM will be bound by very much of this.



    Won't it be funny if Corbyn wins the next election with a big enough majority to be able to push the likes of Starmer out the door and go full on hard Brexiteer.

    Tory Remainers will have destroyed their party for absolutely nothing... :D
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,253

    "We were ready to agree to a customs union with a say for Britain in trade deals, but Theresa May has botched the negotiations with the EU again."

    Yes, I quite like that.

    It is a tricky situation, this, because the difference between May's Deal (permanent CU via the backstop) and Labour's policy (permanent CU via the backstop and the PD) is of the order zero.

    Will not be easy to avoid an agreement. Still, fingers crossed that they can manage it.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,725
    edited April 2019

    The point about the no-referendumers having nowhere to go in Labour is a good one. Who have they got to defect to ? At the same time the willingness for that has to come from Corbyn, and I haven't seen it so far.

    When the choices narrow and you can't avoid going for one of them, it just has to be the least bad option.

    Does helping the Tories ratify the WA sound like the way Corbyn would choose to start an election campaign?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    kinabalu said:

    "We were ready to agree to a customs union with a say for Britain in trade deals, but Theresa May has botched the negotiations with the EU again."

    Yes, I quite like that.

    It is a tricky situation, this, because the difference between May's Deal (permanent CU via the backstop) and Labour's policy (permanent CU via the backstop and the PD) is of the order zero.

    Will not be easy to avoid an agreement. Still, fingers crossed that they can manage it.
    I demanded a jobs first Brexit but she insisted on an employment focused Brexit
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219
    nico67 said:

    The SNP wil make the most of the stitch up narrative .

    Tories and Labour in cahoots .

    Whatever May and Corbyn agree, short of another referendum will doubtless be "bad for Scotland !"
  • May I thank all those who are inviting the masses of people to discover Das Kapital by Karl Marx, or even The Communist Manifesto by Marx and Engels. By promoting the next potential Prime Minister as Marxist, many are going to be wanting to find out more about this "strange" previously "unknown" and definitely unpublicised philosophy. Now on sale on Amazon from 99p on Kindle and from £3.99 in paperback.
    You should take pride in your achievements in bringing down Capitalism and neo-liberalism. from the inside.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    nico67 said:

    The SNP wil make the most of the stitch up narrative .

    Tories and Labour in cahoots .

    Release the Kelpie and vanquish the southern bandits
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,253
    edited April 2019

    Theresa May spent seven hours yesterday not reaching agreement with her own Cabinet. She has spent the last two years not compromising with anyone. Why will it be different this time?

    It might not be, but I do get the sense this time that she might be up for it. In which case Jeremy must stand firm.

    Brexit is Tory and Tory is Brexit. Important not to dilute that essential truth.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,724

    May I thank all those who are inviting the masses of people to discover Das Kapital by Karl Marx, or even The Communist Manifesto by Marx and Engels. By promoting the next potential Prime Minister as Marxist, many are going to be wanting to find out more about this "strange" previously "unknown" and definitely unpublicised philosophy. Now on sale on Amazon from 99p on Kindle and from £3.99 in paperback.
    You should take pride in your achievements in bringing down Capitalism and neo-liberalism. from the inside.

    Obvious troll is obvious. ;)
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited April 2019
    Bad Al (who for all his faults knows a thing or two about winning power from the Tories) thinks Jezza is pretty much Prime Minister in all but name now

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/04/03/weak-incompetent-tories-have-surrendered-fate-brexit-jeremy/
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited April 2019

    May I thank all those who are inviting the masses of people to discover Das Kapital by Karl Marx, or even The Communist Manifesto by Marx and Engels. By promoting the next potential Prime Minister as Marxist, many are going to be wanting to find out more about this "strange" previously "unknown" and definitely unpublicised philosophy. Now on sale on Amazon from 99p on Kindle and from £3.99 in paperback.
    You should take pride in your achievements in bringing down Capitalism and neo-liberalism. from the inside.

    Although in reality Corbyn is about as much a Marxist as Yannis Varoufakis - at a less intellectually advanced level - which is to say .. not that much.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    May I thank all those who are inviting the masses of people to discover Das Kapital by Karl Marx, or even The Communist Manifesto by Marx and Engels. By promoting the next potential Prime Minister as Marxist, many are going to be wanting to find out more about this "strange" previously "unknown" and definitely unpublicised philosophy. Now on sale on Amazon from 99p on Kindle and from £3.99 in paperback.
    You should take pride in your achievements in bringing down Capitalism and neo-liberalism. from the inside.

    I saw a schoolboy on the tube reading Das Kapital the other day. I just assumed it was @TheJezziah brushing up.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,725
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    TOPPING said:

    May I thank all those who are inviting the masses of people to discover Das Kapital by Karl Marx, or even The Communist Manifesto by Marx and Engels. By promoting the next potential Prime Minister as Marxist, many are going to be wanting to find out more about this "strange" previously "unknown" and definitely unpublicised philosophy. Now on sale on Amazon from 99p on Kindle and from £3.99 in paperback.
    You should take pride in your achievements in bringing down Capitalism and neo-liberalism. from the inside.

    I saw a schoolboy on the tube reading Das Kapital the other day. I just assumed it was @TheJezziah brushing up.
    probably on his way to Winchester School
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    TOPPING said:

    May I thank all those who are inviting the masses of people to discover Das Kapital by Karl Marx, or even The Communist Manifesto by Marx and Engels. By promoting the next potential Prime Minister as Marxist, many are going to be wanting to find out more about this "strange" previously "unknown" and definitely unpublicised philosophy. Now on sale on Amazon from 99p on Kindle and from £3.99 in paperback.
    You should take pride in your achievements in bringing down Capitalism and neo-liberalism. from the inside.

    I saw a schoolboy on the tube reading Das Kapital the other day. I just assumed it was @TheJezziah brushing up.
    Das Kapital is a bit tedious, but The Communist Manifesto is short and very readable. It is one of the political classics that everyone should read.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Michael Gove backers should note that he urged a long extension after signing the letter calling for Britain to exit on 22 May. Whether this commendable flexibility makes him more or less likely to reach the top of the greasy pole is not yet clear.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/04/02/seven-hours-rows-recrimination-cabinet-produced-surprising-shift/
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,253
    "PM to meet Corbyn for talks" screams the BBC headline.

    Not "May to meet Corbyn". Not "Mr Corbyn". Not "Leader of the Opposition."

    Another example of insidious establishment bias against any politician who has the cheek to be a socialist.

    So transparent.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    edited April 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    Chris said:

    Current Betfair implied probabilities on leaving the EU:

    This year: 51%
    Next year: 16%
    Some time: 7%
    Never: 25%

    (Bit of licence used in describing the last two.)

    I think "this year" is too high, and the others are value. It looks like it's highly likely that there's going to be an extension, and if there's an extension we're apparently talking at least 9 months, which gets you into next year. In theory they could leave before that, but if there's no pressure, it's unlikely to happen.

    One possibility we need to start thinking about is managed no-deal. People have been saying "managed no-deal" previously as a euphemism for "insane high-speed car crash at 6 hours notice, which will somehow work out OK". But say you'd just won a Tory leadership contest on No Deal. You have some credibility as the No Deal guy that'll buy you some time, but you also don't want to blow up the economy and show everyone that you're a massively useless incompetent. What you'd want to do would be to actually plan for No Deal. You'd announce a date at least 6 months away, better 12 months or 18 months. And you, countries you trade with, and businesses who would now know when it was going to happen, could actually make plans for it.
    In betting terms its really dicey, as the most likely leaving point with a long extension is midnight 1 Jan 2020, but at CET time, which puts it at 11pm on 31 Dec 2019 UK time, this year! Ask Mr Glenn!
    In that instance I think a void bet between @WilliamGlenn and @SeanT would be fair.
    Indeed I would expect Sean and William to shake on a gentlemen’s draw in that scenario.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    nico67 said:

    The SNP wil make the most of the stitch up narrative .

    Tories and Labour in cahoots .

    Release the Kelpie and vanquish the southern bandits
    Sky report May meeting Sturgeon today. Postpone the Kelpie
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    edited April 2019

    The point about the no-referendumers having nowhere to go in Labour is a good one. Who have they got to defect to ? At the same time the willingness for that has to come from Corbyn, and I haven't seen it so far.

    I don't think he will agree to a referendum in talks with May (and I doubt she will agree to one ether) but he will leave the way open for parliament to go for one later. A route it is quite likely to take now I think. A referendum will inevitably lead to the fall of the government.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited April 2019
    CD13 said:

    Mr Edmund,

    "What is it about complex technical subjects that makes people think they should be decided by random people."

    I would vote against, but you're missing the point. Democracy doesn't ask for expertise in a given subject and nor should it. Scientists get it wrong too. I used to get enquiries from the public and some were verging on moronic, but at least, they were interested enough to ask.


    Edit: What makes you think politicians are any better than random people? Moronic would be a compliment for some.

    Politicians are better than random people at making complex technical decisions because they have more time to think about them, far more and better advice, and a much better idea of who's an actual expert, and who's a representative of a pressure group that stuck "scientists" on their name or a fossil fuel lobbyist pretending to be an environmentalist. For example, after Fukushima I was trying to work out what was going on and it took me several weeks to work out that Arnie Gundersen, who is billed as a former nuclear reactor operator and speaks very authoritatively and plausibly, was a massive bullshitter. I only became sure of that when I saw a video where he pretended to take random samples from bits of dirt in Tokyo, but he was actually getting them from places that a lot of water runs through, which I knew (unlike his target audience which were paying less attention) were where the radiation was concentrated.

    They also have the authority to make all the other, related decisions, and to know how those other decisions are likely to be made. So for nuclear power, there would be two different angles from the anti-nuclear side, the environmentalists who thought you should stop nuclear and replace it with solar and wind, and the climate change skeptics who thought it cost too much and you should use fossil fuels. One of these two groups would definitely feel betrayed by the final outcome, but when they voted, nobody would know what the result would be. I genuinely wouldn't know how to vote in that referendum - it would depend on things that weren't on the ballot paper.

    I'm not saying representative democracy is always better than direct democracy but nuclear power is an impressively unsuitable subject for a keep vs stop referendum, which also weirdly has a lot of the exact same pathologies as the brexit one.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    GIN1138 said:

    Bad Al (who for all his faults knows a thing or two about winning power from the Tories) thinks Jezza is pretty much Prime Minister in all but name now

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/04/03/weak-incompetent-tories-have-surrendered-fate-brexit-jeremy/

    With every day that passes, Jezza looks more and more like the real tenant of Number 10.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    It;s more a statement of fact, but maybe.

    We're looking at a long extention whatever i think.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kinabalu said:

    "PM to meet Corbyn for talks" screams the BBC headline.

    Not "May to meet Corbyn". Not "Mr Corbyn". Not "Leader of the Opposition."

    Another example of insidious establishment bias against any politician who has the cheek to be a socialist.

    So transparent.

    No just the authority of office. If Brown had met Cameron in similar circumstances the headline would have been "PM to meet Cameron for talks"
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    TOPPING said:

    May I thank all those who are inviting the masses of people to discover Das Kapital by Karl Marx, or even The Communist Manifesto by Marx and Engels. By promoting the next potential Prime Minister as Marxist, many are going to be wanting to find out more about this "strange" previously "unknown" and definitely unpublicised philosophy. Now on sale on Amazon from 99p on Kindle and from £3.99 in paperback.
    You should take pride in your achievements in bringing down Capitalism and neo-liberalism. from the inside.

    I saw a schoolboy on the tube reading Das Kapital the other day. I just assumed it was @TheJezziah brushing up.
    probably on his way to Winchester School
    LOL yes very probably (actually I think it might have been WLFS).
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited April 2019
    "The SNP has described Theresa May’s offer of Brexit talks with Jeremy Corbyn as “Better Together 2.0”, as the BBC reports that Scotland’s first minister Nicola Sturgeon is seeking urgent talks herself with the prime minister.

    SNP MP Douglas Chapman told BBC Radio Scotland’s Good Morning Scotland that it would be “foolish of the prime minister not to include the third party in parliament” in her compromise discussions, likening her planned talks to the alliance between Labour and Tories during the 2014 Scottish independence referendum campaign."

    The SNP must be furious. Ms Sturgeon was getting quite excited with the no-deal preparations, which would basically have nailed-on independence, had they come to fruition.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    TOPPING said:

    May I thank all those who are inviting the masses of people to discover Das Kapital by Karl Marx, or even The Communist Manifesto by Marx and Engels. By promoting the next potential Prime Minister as Marxist, many are going to be wanting to find out more about this "strange" previously "unknown" and definitely unpublicised philosophy. Now on sale on Amazon from 99p on Kindle and from £3.99 in paperback.
    You should take pride in your achievements in bringing down Capitalism and neo-liberalism. from the inside.

    I saw a schoolboy on the tube reading Das Kapital the other day. I just assumed it was @TheJezziah brushing up.
    probably on his way to Winchester School
    Winchester College, it's called
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Corbyn is definitely going to be our prime minister in the next 3 years. A new chapter will begin in our island story.

    It’s going to be exciting!
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    tlg86 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Bad Al (who for all his faults knows a thing or two about winning power from the Tories) thinks Jezza is pretty much Prime Minister in all but name now

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/04/03/weak-incompetent-tories-have-surrendered-fate-brexit-jeremy/

    With every day that passes, Jezza looks more and more like the real tenant of Number 10.
    Possibly - I am sure Jezza is more and more popular in London and the cities. Whether he has as much support where it is required. Squaddies shooting a picture of Corbyn whilst in bad taste (wonder whether those criticising it would say the same about a similar incident with a picture of Thatcher) surely shows a strand of traditional Labour supporters who may not vote for Corbyn in the way the chattering classes would expect, what we need now is a good poll - like the YouGov constituencies polling.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065

    Blue_rog said:

    Blue_rog said:

    IanB2 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Sky confirmed in absence of agreement with Corbyn TM will post indicative votes on monday and will go with the winning proposition

    And what if there is no winning proposition? Aren’t we back to square one?
    Enter AV...
    I think the current political situation is so broken that some sort of PR may come in. Both parties are completely split and at least PR would give an opportunity for consensus government. What a bland tasteless future that would be.
    Consensus about what? The Cameroons are Blairites and the Blairites are Cameroons? The logic of FPTP has pushed those on the left and right into two broad church parties: Labour and Conservative. PR might or might not lead to centrism but if the electorate wanted right-tilted centrism, it is already on offer from the LibDems, currently languishing in fourth or fifth depending how you count the TIGgers and assorted independents.
    I was thinking of the two main parties fracturing into several different factions. With PR, you might get different factions with broadly similar views entering into coalition. As I said, a bland, tasteless future.
    You might indeed but what then? If the left wing factions band together, and the right wing factions band together, then we have just recreated the Labour and Conservative Parties. If, on the other hand, the centrists band together, then we will have imposed upon us a government no-one wants. We know no-one wants it because absolutely no-one (within a margin of error) votes for its current proponents, the LibDems.
    But there would be a difference. The mix of each type of left or right coalition is specified by the electorate and not by Labour/Tory constituency members prior to the election. The exact form of government policy is then agreed after the GE to form the coalition, and somewhat reflects the mix of the vote on the most popular wing.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    The point about the no-referendumers having nowhere to go in Labour is a good one. Who have they got to defect to ? At the same time the willingness for that has to come from Corbyn, and I haven't seen it so far.

    Call themselves The Dispossessed and sit as an EMO group in the darkest corner of the house.
    Seriously though its yet another grouping in a splintering house. Youve even got a former leadership contender of the Lib Dems on the verge of walking
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    RoyalBlue said:

    Corbyn is definitely going to be our prime minister in the next 3 years.

    Most likely within the next 3 months surely?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    edited April 2019
    Ishmael_Z said:

    TOPPING said:

    May I thank all those who are inviting the masses of people to discover Das Kapital by Karl Marx, or even The Communist Manifesto by Marx and Engels. By promoting the next potential Prime Minister as Marxist, many are going to be wanting to find out more about this "strange" previously "unknown" and definitely unpublicised philosophy. Now on sale on Amazon from 99p on Kindle and from £3.99 in paperback.
    You should take pride in your achievements in bringing down Capitalism and neo-liberalism. from the inside.

    I saw a schoolboy on the tube reading Das Kapital the other day. I just assumed it was @TheJezziah brushing up.
    probably on his way to Winchester School
    Winchester College, it's called
    ha! You fell for Alan's transparently obvious diversion.
  • tottenhamWCtottenhamWC Posts: 352
    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF said:

    Norm said:

    TOPPING said:

    Surely Jezza will ask for a confirmatory GE as the price of cooperation now.

    Listening to Barry Gardiner and Rebecca Long-Bailey, I do not believe the Labour leadership wants another referendum.
    But the vast majority of party members, a lot of Labour MPs and the Deputy Leader do. And if they do not get one some could well threaten defect to TIG. Whereas Labour opponents of a referendum have nowhere else to go and little leverage in the party - they are hardly going to join the ERG. So Corbyn will have to tread very carefully and it's hard to see how he can come to an agreement with May that does not involve either a referendum or a general election, and obviously he will go for the latter if he can.
    A GE deals nicely with his tiggers in that most of them will lose their seats.
    Certainly. I can't see Corbyn signing up to a Tory Brexit plan, goes against his nature. But he might come up with an agreed shortlist list of options to put to the Commons, which might perhaps be CU, CU/SM and EEA, and a referendum could be tacked on to any of those. If the alternative is a general election some of the more moderate Tories might decide that a referendum is the lesser evil.

    Lets face it - post a GE neither Corbyn or whoever else might be PM will be bound by very much of this.



    Won't it be funny if Corbyn wins the next election with a big enough majority to be able to push the likes of Starmer out the door and go full on hard Brexiteer.

    Tory Remainers will have destroyed their party for absolutely nothing... :D
    Chances of that happening are zero.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    "The SNP has described Theresa May’s offer of Brexit talks with Jeremy Corbyn as “Better Together 2.0”, as the BBC reports that Scotland’s first minister Nicola Sturgeon is seeking urgent talks herself with the prime minister.

    SNP MP Douglas Chapman told BBC Radio Scotland’s Good Morning Scotland that it would be “foolish of the prime minister not to include the third party in parliament” in her compromise discussions, likening her planned talks to the alliance between Labour and Tories during the 2014 Scottish independence referendum campaign."

    The SNP must be furious. Ms Sturgeon was getting quite excited with the no-deal preparations, which would basically have nailed-on independence, had they come to fruition.

    Number 10 have confirmed shes meeting the Sturg today
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Good Morning Scotland, often described unkindly as an oxymoron.

    Good Morning Theuniondivvie, often described unkindly as a moron ....

    .....................................

    On the 3Para Jezza paintball incident. A small number of paratroopers acting like idiots isn't representative of the military. It's like saying Peter Bone represents all Conservative MP's or TSE is the worldwide advocate of the Association of Pineapple Pizza Manufacturers.

  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited April 2019

    The point about the no-referendumers having nowhere to go in Labour is a good one. Who have they got to defect to ? At the same time the willingness for that has to come from Corbyn, and I haven't seen it so far.

    Call themselves The Dispossessed and sit as an EMO group in the darkest corner of the house.
    Seriously though its yet another grouping in a splintering house. Youve even got a former leadership contender of the Lib Dems on the verge of walking
    But the labour left has always piggy-backed off the national party's tradition, presence and party machine in the core heartlands. I'm not a sure a leftwing TIG would get much purchase in Scunthorpe.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited April 2019
    IanB2 said:

    FPT:

    Charles said:

    Xtrain said:

    I'm registered to vote in Twickenham but am spending most of my time in West Dorset, a second home. Are there any ramifications if I register to vote in West Dorset with the intention of voting here in any GE?

    So long as you only vote once it’s ok

    (There may also be council tax implications for primary residence)
    The rules on this have changed and it is no longer sufficient to register as a voter that you own a property, pay council tax on it, or spend an amount of time there. Unlike in the old days where just being the owner allowed you to register.

    There needs to be a reasonable degree of permanent residence. If you split your time reasonably equally between two locations, you can register at both. If you have a clear primary residence and only use the second property for leisure purposes (for example occasional holidays and weekends) then you cannot register there, and must register at your main property.

    From the OP's posting, if his "spending most of his time" is an ongoing situation and not simply transient, he actually MUST register in Dorset and come off the register in Twickenham.
    That's not quite right, I think. The law is much less clear-cut than you imply.

    Here's what the Electoral Commission says:

    Whether or not you reside at an address is not defined in law. Residence is understood to mean a “considerable degree of permanence”.

    This means a person with two homes who spends the same amount of time in each can legally register at both addresses.

    It is unlikely that merely owning a second home that is used for recreation would be enough to qualify you to register to vote in that area. Simply paying council tax on a second home would also not be enough.


    Note that they DON'T say that spending about the same time in the two residences is a condition for registering at both addresses. The reason they don't say that is that there is no basis in law for saying it.

    As I understand it, the main case law on this is Fox vs Stirk, helpfully summarised by the tax man here:

    https://www.gov.uk/hmrc-internal-manuals/capital-gains-manual/cg64455

    As you can see, there's no hard-and-fast requirement to spend roughly equal amounts of time in the two residences.
  • RoyalBlue said:

    Corbyn is definitely going to be our prime minister in the next 3 years. A new chapter will begin in our island story.

    It’s going to be exciting!

    All thanks to Brexit and the intransigence of the ERG.
  • tottenhamWCtottenhamWC Posts: 352
    This apparent future desire for Corbyn amongst some of the harder Brexit posters does show how the extremes of political right and left are much closer than one might otherwise predict or expect :)
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    May I thank all those who are inviting the masses of people to discover Das Kapital by Karl Marx, or even The Communist Manifesto by Marx and Engels. By promoting the next potential Prime Minister as Marxist, many are going to be wanting to find out more about this "strange" previously "unknown" and definitely unpublicised philosophy. Now on sale on Amazon from 99p on Kindle and from £3.99 in paperback.
    You should take pride in your achievements in bringing down Capitalism and neo-liberalism. from the inside.

    I saw a schoolboy on the tube reading Das Kapital the other day. I just assumed it was @TheJezziah brushing up.
    Das Kapital is a bit tedious, but The Communist Manifesto is short and very readable. It is one of the political classics that everyone should read.
    The romance of Marx is undeniable. You've got a penniless and extravagantly bearded exile scratching away in the reading room of the British Library but he's writing a compelling political and economic history of a century that is yet to come.

    Hopefully we'll get him on a banknote in the second term.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    The point about the no-referendumers having nowhere to go in Labour is a good one. Who have they got to defect to ? At the same time the willingness for that has to come from Corbyn, and I haven't seen it so far.

    Call themselves The Dispossessed and sit as an EMO group in the darkest corner of the house.
    Seriously though its yet another grouping in a splintering house. Youve even got a former leadership contender of the Lib Dems on the verge of walking
    But the labour left has always piggy-backed off the national party's tradition and party machine in the core heartlands. I'm not a sure a leftwing TIG would get much purchase in Scunthorpe.
    A splinter group within the whole then? Like Watsons scooby gang but of the left
  • This apparent future desire for Corbyn amongst some of the harder Brexit posters does show how the extremes of political right and left are much closer than one might otherwise predict or expect :)

    Brexit and Corbynism are two cheeks of the same arse.

    Both blame others for the ills of the country and are prepared to trash the economy so they can they deliver on their policies.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited April 2019

    The point about the no-referendumers having nowhere to go in Labour is a good one. Who have they got to defect to ? At the same time the willingness for that has to come from Corbyn, and I haven't seen it so far.

    Call themselves The Dispossessed and sit as an EMO group in the darkest corner of the house.
    Seriously though its yet another grouping in a splintering house. Youve even got a former leadership contender of the Lib Dems on the verge of walking
    But the labour left has always piggy-backed off the national party's tradition and party machine in the core heartlands. I'm not a sure a leftwing TIG would get much purchase in Scunthorpe.
    A splinter group within the whole then? Like Watsons scooby gang but of the left
    More plausible, like a leftwing ERG. John Mann and Kate Hoey gallantly leading the fishermen down the Thames.
  • Asking for a friend.

    Why is it ok for the ERG to vote with Corbyn to stop Mrs May's Brexit deal but Mrs May is evil for trying to get Corbyn's votes to pass a deal?
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    edited April 2019
    Not commented since the TM announcement last night.

    Think she has been pragmatic and sensible. What else can she really do?

    Whilst I do sympathise with the ERG to a degree (notwithstanding their idiocy), they are behaving as if this is a Tory administration with a 100 seat majority. May tried for that in June 2017, and day by day is being vindicated for that strategic judgement call even if she ballsed it up. We all posted on here on the morning after the GE that Brexit was either dead completely or we would have BINO.

    May valiantly tried to press on and came very very close to getting a sensible compromise deal which should have kept both sides of her party together, the DUP, and a sensible core of moderate Labour MPs particularly those in Leave seats. The backstop was a mess and we should have stood firmer on that sooner. But I do admire what she has tried to do.

    The ERG say we should No Deal. But how can a minority Government, under threat of a VONC every day and likely to get hammered at a GE, allow such a thing to happen - especially when Parliament may take it out of their hands next week anyway?

    I think with hindsight "pressing on anyway" after June 2017 was a grave mistake. She should have said "we are minority now so we have to build consensus". Even with Cameron's thin majority the same may well have been true anyway.

    Engaging Corbyn is right, and I am encouraged by his consensual and statesmanlike tone, which is to his credit. I think they will sort it. Or agree a list of options, one of which will get a majority in the final crunch vote on Monday. The Tories will lose core voter support (I read a tweet by Jenkyns last night and the comments of her "betrayed" constituents in response to it do not make happy reading for moderate middle ground Tory supporters like me frankly), but in the long term we are probably going to leave the EU, we will find a happy compromise settlement which will be worse than TM's own deal, but the administration may survive, with a new PM, and get to lead the future settlement which may depart from whatever the May/Corbyn deal requires. The country will get to move on, the Union will survive for now, and in time, we will have a GE where we get a straight choice between the new PM and Corbyn away from the current frenzied heat.

    I hope...!
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