I'm still wondering: how does Theresa May standing down make the Deal any better than it was before?
It has won over Boris, IDS, Burns, Rees-Mogg etc for the Deal which gives it a chance but it will probably still fall just short. If as expected SM and or customs union then wins the indicative votes tonight and MV3 fails May could well call a general election on a platform of giving her a majority for her Deal or BINO with PM Corbyn and the SNP
Yes, fighting a GE on "let's leave the customs union" will be a sure fire winner.
Well it will for Tories, Corbyn as PM guarantees staying permanently in a Customs Union
If the Tories call another snap GE and the reason has anything to do with Brexit, I expect they will be in for another surprise.
As I said before I would expect sadly a repeat of February 1974, May like Heath says 'who governs Britain' the public says 'Not You'. Though like Feb 1974 it would be very close, remember Heath won the popular vote and a majority in England even if Wilson won most seats across the UK.
I would then expect Corbyn to become PM on a platform of negotiating Single Market and Customs Union BINO with the EU propped up by the SNP while Boris wins the Tory leadership on a hard Brexit platform after May resigns and Boris then becomes Leader of the Opposition
Put that to your Tory friends and I can't see them saying "Great, HY, let's go for it!"
MV3 to pass is now odds on, at least at WmHills. Evs or thereabouts elsewhere.
It's over.
Looks like a good time to bet against it to me. The votes just don’t look to be there yet. There are still too many staunch holdouts.
Was Sheryll Murray on your list (she now says she'll support it)?
Yes, so far my fake irreconcilable list is Conor Burns, Boris Johnson, Sherryl Murray and Henry Smith. The rump stands at 34 including Suella Braverman.
If Theres's deal goes through on Friday I wonder if she will stand down as Con leader next week but stay on as PM to over see us leaving the EU on 22nd May.
A Con leadership election takes around two months so that would mean the new leader takes over as PM just after Brexit Day - It also means the Summer (June or July) is freed up for a general election.
Interesting to note that the public favour a referendum yet reject any plausible option that might be on it.
Maybe Parliament is merely reflecting the nation.
A recent poll suggested 61:39 in favour of remain over May' s deal in any referendum ; something the Tories may have briefly forgotten tonight.
In fact those numbers are more decisive than any of the questions listed below - it's the getting to the referendum that's roughly as contentious as some of the others, which is certainly a bit illogical.
I'm still wondering: how does Theresa May standing down make the Deal any better than it was before?
It has won over Boris, IDS, Burns, Rees-Mogg etc for the Deal which gives it a chance but it will probably still fall just short. If as expected SM and or customs union then wins the indicative votes tonight and MV3 fails May could well call a general election on a platform of giving her a majority for her Deal or BINO with PM Corbyn and the SNP
Yes, fighting a GE on "let's leave the customs union" will be a sure fire winner.
Well it will for Tories, Corbyn as PM guarantees staying permanently in a Customs Union
If the Tories call another snap GE and the reason has anything to do with Brexit, I expect they will be in for another surprise.
As I said before I would expect sadly a repeat of February 1974, May like Heath says 'who governs Britain' the public says 'Not You'. Though like Feb 1974 it would be very close, remember Heath won the popular vote and a majority in England even if Wilson won most seats across the UK.
I would then expect Corbyn to become PM on a platform of negotiating Single Market and Customs Union BINO with the EU propped up by the SNP while Boris wins the Tory leadership on a hard Brexit platform after May resigns and Boris then becomes Leader of the Opposition
Put that to your Tory friends and I can't see them saying "Great, HY, let's go for it!"
Given the DUP and about 20 Tory MPs are still refusing to back the Deal and the Deal still does not have at least 20 Labour MPs backing it has May just made a unicorn resignation proposal?
Who might swing from Labour without a whip?
Who else is sympathetic?
I can’t think of anyone.
Which means even if every Tory MP voted for the Deal the Deal would still be narrowly defeated if no more Labour MPs switch to back the Deal and the DUP still votes against the Deal
For a completely unrelated £1bn, I would imagine the DUP might abstain along with a few of the remaining ERG purists. That should see it home.
For an unrelated billion and a face saving gesture they may even vote for. But the ERG got its pound of flesh tonight, the DUP will not switch until they've got theirs.
What might swing the DUP? They already have a £1B splurge of general funding for NI. Add your suggestions here.
(1) Ministerial jag for Arlene? (2) Ireland kicked out of 6N? (3) A laser big enough to write F*CK THE POPE on the moon? (4) Wood pellet burner for Westminster? (5) Ban Riverdance?
Given the DUP and about 20 Tory MPs are still refusing to back the Deal and the Deal still does not have at least 20 Labour MPs backing it has May just made a unicorn resignation proposal?
Who might swing from Labour without a whip?
Who else is sympathetic?
I can’t think of anyone.
Which means even if every Tory MP voted for the Deal the Deal would still be narrowly defeated if no more Labour MPs switch to back the Deal and the DUP still votes against the Deal
For a completely unrelated £1bn, I would imagine the DUP might abstain along with a few of the remaining ERG purists. That should see it home.
For an unrelated billion and a face saving gesture they may even vote for. But the ERG got its pound of flesh tonight, the DUP will not switch until they've got theirs.
What might swing the DUP? They already have a £1B splurge of general funding for NI. Add your suggestions here.
(1) Ministerial jag for Arlene? (2) Ireland kicked out of 6N? (3) A laser big enough to write F*CK THE POPE on the moon? (4) Wood pellet burner for Westminster? (5) Ban Riverdance?
(2) Except that Ireland plays as a single nation in the Rugby!
Given the DUP and about 20 Tory MPs are still refusing to back the Deal and the Deal still does not have at least 20 Labour MPs backing it has May just made a unicorn resignation proposal?
Who might swing from Labour without a whip?
Who else is sympathetic?
I can’t think of anyone.
Which means even if every Tory MP voted for the Deal the Deal would still be narrowly defeated if no more Labour MPs switch to back the Deal and the DUP still votes against the Deal
For a completely unrelated £1bn, I would imagine the DUP might abstain along with a few of the remaining ERG purists. That should see it home.
For an unrelated billion and a face saving gesture they may even vote for. But the ERG got its pound of flesh tonight, the DUP will not switch until they've got theirs.
What might swing the DUP? They already have a £1B splurge of general funding for NI. Add your suggestions here.
(1) Ministerial jag for Arlene? (2) Ireland kicked out of 6N? (3) A laser big enough to write F*CK THE POPE on the moon? (4) Wood pellet burner for Westminster? (5) Ban Riverdance?
The DUP can do the maths and see the writing on the wall. They know that there's zero reason for them to switch early but by switching late they can name their price. Plus if they don't give in then they risk PM Corbyn. Plus they've flown kites about potentially backing it if they get the right assurances.
They'll be given assurances to guarantee no internal UK barriers and coincidentally another billion splurged on Northern Ireland for entirely unrelated reasons.
"I don't know what assurances May has given the DUP, but Northern Ireland now has a space program".
If Theres's deal goes through on Friday I wonder if she will stand down as Con leader next week but stay on as PM to over see us leaving the EU on 22nd May.
A Con leadership election takes around two months so that would mean the new leader takes over as PM just after Brexit Day - It also means the Summer (June or July) is freed up for a general election.
Cutting through the airy persiflage of today, I still cannot see the numbers for the May deal. No DUP and without the Tory BREXIT and REMAIN rebels and she's still well short.
Given the DUP and about 20 Tory MPs are still refusing to back the Deal and the Deal still does not have at least 20 Labour MPs backing it has May just made a unicorn resignation proposal?
Who might swing from Labour without a whip?
Who else is sympathetic?
I can’t think of anyone.
Which means even if every Tory MP voted for the Deal the Deal would still be narrowly defeated if no more Labour MPs switch to back the Deal and the DUP still votes against the Deal
For a completely unrelated £1bn, I would imagine the DUP might abstain along with a few of the remaining ERG purists. That should see it home.
For an unrelated billion and a face saving gesture they may even vote for. But the ERG got its pound of flesh tonight, the DUP will not switch until they've got theirs.
What might swing the DUP? They already have a £1B splurge of general funding for NI. Add your suggestions here.
(1) Ministerial jag for Arlene? (2) Ireland kicked out of 6N? (3) A laser big enough to write F*CK THE POPE on the moon? (4) Wood pellet burner for Westminster? (5) Ban Riverdance?
You mean being styled as "the guardians of the union" or whatever JRM called them today isn't enough?
Cash insisting both Commons and Lords approval is needed to postpone EU exit. He must be close to the mystery Betfair punter; first mention of the Lords. I wonder who they have lined up for tomorrow's attempted filibuster?
Cash insisting both Commons and Lords approval is needed to postpone EU exit. He must be close to the mystery Betfair punter; first mention of the Lords. I wonder who they have lined up for tomorrow's attempted filibuster?
The irreconciliables must have something in mind otherwise their continued opposition makes no sense.
Cash insisting both Commons and Lords approval is needed to postpone EU exit. He must be close to the mystery Betfair punter; first mention of the Lords. I wonder who they have lined up for tomorrow's attempted filibuster?
The irreconciliables must have something in mind otherwise their continued opposition makes no sense.
It's the person piling £thousands onto apparently lost bets that interests me
The ERG were going to oppose regardless. But big bets like that imply some sort of plan
If Theres's deal goes through on Friday I wonder if she will stand down as Con leader next week but stay on as PM to over see us leaving the EU on 22nd May.
A Con leadership election takes around two months so that would mean the new leader takes over as PM just after Brexit Day - It also means the Summer (June or July) is freed up for a general election.
Cutting through the airy persiflage of today, I still cannot see the numbers for the May deal. No DUP and without the Tory BREXIT and REMAIN rebels and she's still well short.
And that's assuming they're even allowed to vote on it
I'm still wondering: how does Theresa May standing down make the Deal any better than it was before?
Because it is not a Deal. It is a non-Deal because so much is left undecided. All that has really been decided is that the UK will have thrown all its best cards away for the next phase of negotiations.
Who leads the UK in that next phase of negotiation nonetheless matters and that is why the prospect of May going does at least sugar the pill slightly.
Given the DUP and about 20 Tory MPs are still refusing to back the Deal and the Deal still does not have at least 20 Labour MPs backing it has May just made a unicorn resignation proposal?
Who might swing from Labour without a whip?
Who else is sympathetic?
I can’t think of anyone.
Which means even if every Tory MP voted for the Deal the Deal would still be narrowly defeated if no more Labour MPs switch to back the Deal and the DUP still votes against the Deal
For a completely unrelated £1bn, I would imagine the DUP might abstain along with a few of the remaining ERG purists. That should see it home.
For an unrelated billion and a face saving gesture they may even vote for. But the ERG got its pound of flesh tonight, the DUP will not switch until they've got theirs.
What might swing the DUP? They already have a £1B splurge of general funding for NI. Add your suggestions here.
(1) Ministerial jag for Arlene? (2) Ireland kicked out of 6N? (3) A laser big enough to write F*CK THE POPE on the moon? (4) Wood pellet burner for Westminster? (5) Ban Riverdance?
The DUP can do the maths and see the writing on the wall. They know that there's zero reason for them to switch early but by switching late they can name their price. Plus if they don't give in then they risk PM Corbyn. Plus they've flown kites about potentially backing it if they get the right assurances.
They'll be given assurances to guarantee no internal UK barriers and coincidentally another billion splurged on Northern Ireland for entirely unrelated reasons.
"I don't know what assurances May has given the DUP, but Northern Ireland now has a space program".
While I think that MPs can be quite mercenary, I am less convinced than PB Tories that bribery can get either the DUP or Labour rebels into May's lobby. Indeed May standing down in favour of probably a hard Brexiteer is likely to push them away. I can't see it working myself.
Interesting to note that the public favour a referendum yet reject any plausible option that might be on it.
Maybe Parliament is merely reflecting the nation.
A recent poll suggested 61:39 in favour of remain over May' s deal in any referendum ; something the Tories may have briefly forgotten tonight.
Opinium however, have 45/55, and Survation 50/50. It depends how many Leavers abstain or vote for it.
Aren't those figures for Remain / Leave, though, rather than specifically for Remain / May's Deal ?
No, May's Deal/Remain.
Looks like a range of views then, generally from strongly opposed to May's deal to mildly opposed. One thing that could sway some Tory voters is the new-found love, marshmallows and kisses for it from Boris and company, though, I suppose.
US regulators are probing Swedbank over a series of money-laundering scandals in a dramatic escalation of the Swedish bank’s dirty-money problems.
The New York State Department of Financial Services wrote to Swedbank last month saying it was looking into seven separate matters involving the Swedish bank, according to a copy of the letter seen by the Financial Times.
News of the letter came on the same day that Swedish prosecutors raided Swedbank and only hours after it emerged that it handled €135bn of money from high-risk non-residents, mostly Russians, through its Estonian operation over the past decade.
My takes on Theresa May's self sacrifice to the false ERG god:
1. The ERG rationalisation that May's resignation makes a bad deal worthwhile is that what happens next is decided entirely by the ERG as part of their control of the next Tory leader. This needs to take no account of what parliament or the country wants.
2. Labour MPs have even less reason to vote for May's Deal.
3. Brexit destroys the DUP reputation for being wily political operators. They made their first mistake by supporting a Brexit that destabilises Northern Ireland. They compounded their mistake by throwing their lot in with the ERG, when a customs union would get them out of their backstop trap. I wouldn't rule out the DUP making a third mistake (from their PoV) by voting for May's Deal that doesn't include a customs union. However...
4. I think it's quite likely that MP votes will indicate something that includes a customs union. And ...
5. Don't imagine Brexit will be settled any time soon. Limbo will continue for years yet, at the grace and favour of the EU in terms of rolling over extensions.
The assumption appears to be that if May's deal passes the Tory leadership contest is primed to start the day after exit day in late May but the PM stays in office as leader and PM until the contest is concluded. Puts a possible departure date into late summer, I guess?
The issue is that if her deal fails she appears to want to stay longer but many of her colleagues have a different view.
Have I ever mentioned I tipped Hunt, Lidington, and Hancock at 100/1?
A firm of solicitors has never held office.
Lloyd George, Roberts and Co. says hello.
Ah so that's the firm you've been using for the work on the accidental scrambling of your name. Have you considered that the ostensible partners haven't been seen since the 1920s? I realise that there's precedent in slow progress, but Jarndice aside you may want to consider the state of affairs. I realise this may be unwelcome news, but you may die before the wise posts you've made on PB are correctly attributed to yourself.
Ydoethur's name is " y doethur", which is Welsh for "The Doctor". Unfortunately there has never been a Welsh Doctor Who, so the obvious joke goes unspoken...
Being a PB loyalist, and going to PB before the BBC site, I must be the only person in the whole country who learned of Melanie Onn’s resignation before I learned of Theresa May’s.
Comments
Maybe Parliament is merely reflecting the nation.
A Con leadership election takes around two months so that would mean the new leader takes over as PM just after Brexit Day - It also means the Summer (June or July) is freed up for a general election.
In fact those numbers are more decisive than any of the questions listed below - it's the getting to the referendum that's roughly as contentious as some of the others, which is certainly a bit illogical.
(1) Ministerial jag for Arlene?
(2) Ireland kicked out of 6N?
(3) A laser big enough to write F*CK THE POPE on the moon?
(4) Wood pellet burner for Westminster?
(5) Ban Riverdance?
The arithmetic is still awful with the DUP against. Even with it's not guaranteed.
Most famous as the birthplace of the greatest bowler who ever lived.
They'll be given assurances to guarantee no internal UK barriers and coincidentally another billion splurged on Northern Ireland for entirely unrelated reasons.
"I don't know what assurances May has given the DUP, but Northern Ireland now has a space program".
MV on the WA only to pass soon.
https://mobile.twitter.com/wesstreeting/status/1110988621304287232
No party needs idiots like that running round shooting his mouth off
The ERG were going to oppose regardless. But big bets like that imply some sort of plan
But Sydney F. Barnes was a Chadsmoor man.
Who leads the UK in that next phase of negotiation nonetheless matters and that is why the prospect of May going does at least sugar the pill slightly.
Melanie Onn off.
I'm just amazed he's sufficiently self aware to realise it.
Twat
Paging Morris Dancer.
It’s all very funny.
US regulators are probing Swedbank over a series of money-laundering scandals in a dramatic escalation of the Swedish bank’s dirty-money problems.
The New York State Department of Financial Services wrote to Swedbank last month saying it was looking into seven separate matters involving the Swedish bank, according to a copy of the letter seen by the Financial Times.
News of the letter came on the same day that Swedish prosecutors raided Swedbank and only hours after it emerged that it handled €135bn of money from high-risk non-residents, mostly Russians, through its Estonian operation over the past decade.
https://www.ft.com/content/acc757b0-507a-11e9-b401-8d9ef1626294
1. The ERG rationalisation that May's resignation makes a bad deal worthwhile is that what happens next is decided entirely by the ERG as part of their control of the next Tory leader. This needs to take no account of what parliament or the country wants.
2. Labour MPs have even less reason to vote for May's Deal.
3. Brexit destroys the DUP reputation for being wily political operators. They made their first mistake by supporting a Brexit that destabilises Northern Ireland. They compounded their mistake by throwing their lot in with the ERG, when a customs union would get them out of their backstop trap. I wouldn't rule out the DUP making a third mistake (from their PoV) by voting for May's Deal that doesn't include a customs union. However...
4. I think it's quite likely that MP votes will indicate something that includes a customs union. And ...
5. Don't imagine Brexit will be settled any time soon. Limbo will continue for years yet, at the grace and favour of the EU in terms of rolling over extensions.
Wait, has Charlie Faulkner gone too?
The issue is that if her deal fails she appears to want to stay longer but many of her colleagues have a different view.
Yesterday they were the Grand Wizards.
Perhaps they should replay all Corbyn's comments on the EU too.