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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The attention now turns to TMay’s attendance at the 1922 commi

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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,403
    IanB2 said:

    £/$ looks happy

    £/$ is stuck in a range between 1.30-33 and has been for weeks. All this is fluff the market is waiting for something concrete.
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    malcolmg said:

    Just the moronic Tories being reminded of what happened to them at public school
    I didnt go to public school Malc !!!!
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,130
    I wouldn't bet against May still being there at the end of the year.
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    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578
    IanB2 said:
    Looks like she will be gone by mid-April then. Shortly after she has asked the EU to extend to at least December.
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    George Osborne to win the Maidenhead by election for the Tories this Autumn.

    You heard it here first.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    LOL at people believing May will go just because she's said she will.

    Have they really not learnt yet that she'll tell shameless lie after shameless lie, as long as it gets her through the day?
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    IanB2 said:
    Looks like she will be gone by mid-April then. Shortly after she has asked the EU to extend to at least December.
    It is a threat not a promise.

    If there is a long extension, she'll stay on, because there won't have been a Brexit.
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    PendduPenddu Posts: 265
    Sandpit said:

    Mr. B2, probably not if you get paid in dollars...

    *waves*
    Waves back...
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787

    George Osborne to win the Maidenhead by election for the Tories this Autumn.

    You heard it here first.

    I don't think she'll stand down as MP - not a bolter like Blair or Cameron.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137

    IanB2 said:
    Looks like she will be gone by mid-April then. Shortly after she has asked the EU to extend to at least December.
    It is a threat not a promise.

    If there is a long extension, she'll stay on, because there won't have been a Brexit.
    Until December. When 250 letters will go in within the hour.....
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,894
    That should be enough now for all members of the Tory Party to vote for the deal.

    If they can get Bercow to agree to MV3 she should whip the party to vote for it with the threat of expulsion for anyone voting against.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,889
    Afternoon all :)

    So the final sacrifice has been made. May will throw herself to the lions to get the WA passed but will it? The Conservatives might rally round but they need every vote to go up against the DUP and the Opposition parties.

    This is the final card she has to play but there are two questions in my mind:

    1) Has the WA changed enough to allow Bercow to even call the vote?
    2) IF it fails what then?
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    Oh, and as others have said, a load of bollocks from the EU in the last couple of days on internet content and car regulations, doing a good job of reminding a lot of people why they voted to leave in the first place.
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    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    IanB2 said:

    No they did not. Even if every Tory Brexiteer backed MV1 and MV2 it would still have lost.
    No. If the Tory party had untied behind championing the deal from the outset, it would have got through. The ERG wouldn't have given remainers cover to oppose it, and Labour leavers would have taken their chance to make their mark on history.
    Yep. If Brexit fails it will be because of the Brexiteers - what did they expect, voting against it?
    They voted against a crap deal not Brexit.
    But the ballot paper did not say anything about 'crap deal' and whether it was ok or not. So if you voted Leave, you were voting for any form of Leave - from BRINO to NO Deal and all stops in between.
    Of course. So one of them should happen and then we should hold Parliament to account to how happy we are with what they've come up with.
    Well, those that voted Leave can hardly complain about what sort of leave they get, even those who has since come to believe it wasn't a very smart choice.
    Of course they can complain! That's a right every Englishman and woman has. People who don't vote have no reason to complain but those who do should.

    They should follow through with their complaints if need be by voting accordingly at the next election. Call it taking back control.
    Lol! And what about the poor sods who voted Remain? We lost, so we don't count. Just ignore is now, yes?
    You get to complain, agitate and vote at the next election too.

    If at the next election a party with a Rejoin manifesto wins, you get what you want back.
    If Remain had won 52-48 would that have been a mandate for immediate integration into a federal European superstate? No, of course it wouldn't have been. I cannot see how any Leaver can honestly claim a 52-48 victory on the question should the UK leave the EU gave a mandate for anything other than simply leaving the EU. Everything else is a matter of debate.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,904

    George Osborne to win the Maidenhead by election for the Tories this Autumn.

    You heard it here first.

    You're deliciously evil TSE.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,403
    rpjs said:

    IanB2 said:

    No they did not. Even if every Tory Brexiteer backed MV1 and MV2 it would still have lost.
    No. If the Tory party had untied behind championing the deal from the outset, it would have got through. The ERG wouldn't have given remainers cover to oppose it, and Labour leavers would have taken their chance to make their mark on history.
    Yep. If Brexit fails it will be because of the Brexiteers - what did they expect, voting against it?
    They voted against a crap deal not Brexit.
    But the ballot paper did not say anything about 'crap deal' and whether it was ok or not. So if you voted Leave, you were voting for any form of Leave - from BRINO to NO Deal and all stops in between.
    Of course. So one of them should happen and then we should hold Parliament to account to how happy we are with what they've come up with.
    Well, those that voted Leave can hardly complain about what sort of leave they get, even those who has since come to believe it wasn't a very smart choice.
    Of course they can complain! That's a right every Englishman and woman has. People who don't vote have no reason to complain but those who do should.

    They should follow through with their complaints if need be by voting accordingly at the next election. Call it taking back control.
    Lol! And what about the poor sods who voted Remain? We lost, so we don't count. Just ignore is now, yes?
    You get to complain, agitate and vote at the next election too.

    If at the next election a party with a Rejoin manifesto wins, you get what you want back.
    If Remain had won 52-48 would that have been a mandate for immediate integration into a federal European superstate? No, of course it wouldn't have been. I cannot see how any Leaver can honestly claim a 52-48 victory on the question should the UK leave the EU gave a mandate for anything other than simply leaving the EU. Everything else is a matter of debate.
    We went through the PB Leaver approach to all this earlier today.

    Thick as ***** the lot of them.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Sandpit said:

    Oh, and as others have said, a load of bollocks from the EU in the last couple of days on internet content and car regulations, doing a good job of reminding a lot of people why they voted to leave in the first place.

    Agreed on internet content, car regs seem reasonable to me.

    Regarding ISA a speed limiter that can be overridden in an emergency seems quite rational. Being able to accelerate in emergencies seems reasonable but if the technology is there to assist in staying within the law why not do so?

    Regarding an on-board black box, planes etc have them without it being unreasonable, many insurance companies now request them especially from younger drivers. I don't see what's unreasonable.

    If the ISA can't be overridden that would be absurd.
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    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578
    Danny565 said:

    LOL at people believing May will go just because she's said she will.

    Have they really not learnt yet that she'll tell shameless lie after shameless lie, as long as it gets her through the day?

    I wonder if candidates will begin to declare themselves formally now? There will be a lot of pressure on them to do so.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,130
    You can drive a coach and horses through this.

    https://twitter.com/RaynerSkyNews/status/1110960910414303232
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    GIN1138 said:

    That should be enough now for all members of the Tory Party to vote for the deal.
    1) The Tories alone aren't enough to get the deal through and the DUP remain hostile.
    2) Here's my list of MPs who I expect to be the most challenging to persuade. Some of them have made very indiscreet remarks indeed. Watch what they say before deciding how the deal will do.

    Adam Afriyie (Windsor)
    Lucy Allan (Telford)
    Steve Baker (Wycombe)
    Crispin Blunt (Reigate)
    Peter Bone (Wellingborough)
    Andrew Bridgen (North West Leicestershire)
    Christopher Chope (Christchurch)
    Richard Drax (South Dorset)
    James Duddridge (Rochford and Southend East)
    Mark Francois (Rayleigh and Wickford)
    Marcus Fysh (Yeovil)
    Chris Green (Bolton West)
    Philip Hollobone (Kettering)
    Adam Holloway (Gravesham)
    Ranil Jayawardena (North East Hampshire)
    Andrea Jenkyns (Morley and Outwood)
    Boris Johnson (Uxbridge and South Ruislip)
    David Jones (Clwyd West)
    Julian Lewis (New Forest East)
    Craig Mackinlay (South Thanet)
    Sheryll Murray (South East Cornwall)
    Priti Patel (Witham)
    Owen Paterson (North Shropshire)
    John Redwood (Wokingham)
    Andrew Rosindell (Romford)
    Royston Smith (Southampton Itchen)
    Ross Thomson (Aberdeen South)
    Michael Tomlinson (Mid Dorset and North Poole)
    Anne-Marie Trevelyan (Berwick-upon-Tweed)
    Guto Bebb (Aberconwy)
    Justine Greening (Putney)
    Dominic Grieve (Beaconsfield)
    Sam Gyimah (East Surrey)
    Jo Johnson (Orpington)
    Phillip Lee (Bracknell)
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    So the final sacrifice has been made. May will throw herself to the lions to get the WA passed but will it? The Conservatives might rally round but they need every vote to go up against the DUP and the Opposition parties.

    This is the final card she has to play but there are two questions in my mind:

    1) Has the WA changed enough to allow Bercow to even call the vote?
    2) IF it fails what then?

    3) if the MV3 passes, do the DUP follow through on their promise to vote against the government in a vote of confidence?

    Remember that MV3 doesn’t ratify the Treaty, there’s a whole new Bill that needs to pass in order to do that.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,408
    Backing both CM2 and CU with Ladbrokes, with a positive return of either of them comes top, looks like a good bet.
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831

    George Osborne to win the Maidenhead by election for the Tories this Autumn.

    You heard it here first.

    We can but hope he keeps his bitterness outside of Parliament for many years to come. We had enough of Ted Heath glowering from the back benches.

    Osborne would be far, far worse.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,991
    edited March 2019
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    So the final sacrifice has been made. May will throw herself to the lions to get the WA passed but will it? The Conservatives might rally round but they need every vote to go up against the DUP and the Opposition parties.

    This is the final card she has to play but there are two questions in my mind:

    1) Has the WA changed enough to allow Bercow to even call the vote?
    2) IF it fails what then?

    Bercow probably cannot be persuaded under any circumstances, he is working full tilt to acheive his own outcomes, so it is not a question of if it has changed enough, it's whether he thinks it aids his cause. Is it true though that he has essentially told the government it cannot even suspend standing orders to allow them to vote again regardless? I thought he'd explicitly confirmed that was possible previously.
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    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578

    You can drive a coach and horses through this.

    https://twitter.com/RaynerSkyNews/status/1110960910414303232

    NOTHING HAS CHANGED
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    You can drive a coach and horses through this.

    https://twitter.com/RaynerSkyNews/status/1110960910414303232

    Are you worried the deal may go through now
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Despite May's offer to go, I still don't buy that the core nutters in the ERG are bright enough to realise this is their final chance to ensure Brexit. I'd give it 2 hours before one of them is on the telly wittering on about powdered egg and the blitz spirit :(
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    rpjs said:

    You get to complain, agitate and vote at the next election too.

    If at the next election a party with a Rejoin manifesto wins, you get what you want back.

    If Remain had won 52-48 would that have been a mandate for immediate integration into a federal European superstate? No, of course it wouldn't have been. I cannot see how any Leaver can honestly claim a 52-48 victory on the question should the UK leave the EU gave a mandate for anything other than simply leaving the EU. Everything else is a matter of debate.
    Its a mandate for whatever was pushed by the winning side during the vote, same as at a General Election. An election only technically results in MPs being elected nothing else, but the principle that there is a mandate for the manifesto is well established.

    Given Remain didn't push for a federal European superstate there is no mandate for that, just as there is equally no Leave mandate for No Deal since Vote Leave didn't push for No Deal. There would have been a Remain mandate to see Cameron's renegotiations be implemented since that was part of the Remain agenda.
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    Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,301
    Addressing the 1922 Committee this evening, Prime Minister Theresa May said:

    “This has been a testing time for our country and our party. We’re nearly there. We’re almost ready to start a new chapter and build that brighter future.

    “But before we can do that, we have to finish the job in hand. As I say, I don’t tour the bars and engage in the gossip – but I do make time to speak to colleagues, and I have a great team in the Whips' Office. I also have two excellent PPSs.

    “And I have heard very clearly the mood of the parliamentary party. I know there is a desire for a new approach – and new leadership – in the second phase of the Brexit negotiations – and I won’t stand in the way of that.

    “I know some people are worried that if you vote for the Withdrawal Agreement, I will take that as a mandate to rush on into phase two without the debate we need to have. I won’t – I hear what you are saying.

    “But we need to get the deal through and deliver Brexit.

    […]

    “I am prepared to leave this job earlier than I intended in order to do what is right for our country and our party.

    “I ask everyone in this room to back the deal so we can complete our historic duty – to deliver on the decision of the British people and leave the European Union with a smooth and orderly exit.”
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,130

    You can drive a coach and horses through this.

    https://twitter.com/RaynerSkyNews/status/1110960910414303232

    Are you worried the deal may go through now
    No. I just think May isn't going anywhere. She's baiting the more craven MPs into showing their hand.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    You can drive a coach and horses through this.

    https://twitter.com/RaynerSkyNews/status/1110960910414303232

    That's not fair. At last something HAS changed.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,403
    "Earlier than intended" = two days before next GE instead of day before.
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    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    So the final sacrifice has been made. May will throw herself to the lions to get the WA passed but will it? The Conservatives might rally round but they need every vote to go up against the DUP and the Opposition parties.

    This is the final card she has to play but there are two questions in my mind:

    1) Has the WA changed enough to allow Bercow to even call the vote?
    2) IF it fails what then?

    The WA has not changed significantly, so even if Bercow does allow it, why would anybody change their vote? Why does her departure make any difference to whether the deal is ok?
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    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578

    GIN1138 said:

    That should be enough now for all members of the Tory Party to vote for the deal.
    1) The Tories alone aren't enough to get the deal through and the DUP remain hostile.
    2) Here's my list of MPs who I expect to be the most challenging to persuade. Some of them have made very indiscreet remarks indeed. Watch what they say before deciding how the deal will do.

    Adam Afriyie (Windsor)
    Lucy Allan (Telford)
    Steve Baker (Wycombe)
    Crispin Blunt (Reigate)
    Peter Bone (Wellingborough)
    Andrew Bridgen (North West Leicestershire)
    Christopher Chope (Christchurch)
    Richard Drax (South Dorset)
    James Duddridge (Rochford and Southend East)
    Mark Francois (Rayleigh and Wickford)
    Marcus Fysh (Yeovil)
    Chris Green (Bolton West)
    Philip Hollobone (Kettering)
    Adam Holloway (Gravesham)
    Ranil Jayawardena (North East Hampshire)
    Andrea Jenkyns (Morley and Outwood)
    Boris Johnson (Uxbridge and South Ruislip)
    David Jones (Clwyd West)
    Julian Lewis (New Forest East)
    Craig Mackinlay (South Thanet)
    Sheryll Murray (South East Cornwall)
    Priti Patel (Witham)
    Owen Paterson (North Shropshire)
    John Redwood (Wokingham)
    Andrew Rosindell (Romford)
    Royston Smith (Southampton Itchen)
    Ross Thomson (Aberdeen South)
    Michael Tomlinson (Mid Dorset and North Poole)
    Anne-Marie Trevelyan (Berwick-upon-Tweed)
    Guto Bebb (Aberconwy)
    Justine Greening (Putney)
    Dominic Grieve (Beaconsfield)
    Sam Gyimah (East Surrey)
    Jo Johnson (Orpington)
    Phillip Lee (Bracknell)
    May's pronouncement is not likely to have any impact on the remainers in that list. They will still oppose the deal.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,927
    Anorak said:

    Despite May's offer to go, I still don't buy that the core nutters in the ERG are bright enough to realise this is their final chance to ensure Brexit. I'd give it 2 hours before one of them is on the telly wittering on about powdered egg and the blitz spirit :(

    "My father didn't fight in the war against the Hun to see this country become a slave to the European Union."
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    Sandpit said:

    Looking at empty Commons chamber, what chance of the SNP proposing a point of order to end the debate and move immediately to the votes?

    Chuck out all options, maximum confusion. And we couldn't possibly vote on any of them again, could we Mr. Speaker.....?
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    NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    Danny565 said:

    LOL at people believing May will go just because she's said she will.

    Have they really not learnt yet that she'll tell shameless lie after shameless lie, as long as it gets her through the day?

    I think you can tell from her improved demeanour at PMQs today that she has made her mind up to go. After all the crap she gets I can't imagine she wants to hang on much longer anyway.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,991
    Anorak said:

    Despite May's offer to go, I still don't buy that the core nutters in the ERG are bright enough to realise this is their final chance to ensure Brexit. I'd give it 2 hours before one of them is on the telly wittering on about powdered egg and the blitz spirit :(

    I would not agree but almost respect someone who stayed true to the end for what they believed, but it has been more than a bit worrying to see a spread of MPs and other ERG friendly types contemplating switching on the basis of reasoning which was blooming obvious for months, like that the Commons will see soft Brexit or No brexit before it allows no deal. They apparently never saw that coming, even though they were told it many times.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    So the final sacrifice has been made. May will throw herself to the lions to get the WA passed but will it? The Conservatives might rally round but they need every vote to go up against the DUP and the Opposition parties.

    This is the final card she has to play but there are two questions in my mind:

    1) Has the WA changed enough to allow Bercow to even call the vote?
    2) IF it fails what then?

    The WA has not changed significantly, so even if Bercow does allow it, why would anybody change their vote? Why does her departure make any difference to whether the deal is ok?
    Because they have more confidence in her successor to make the most of the opportunities the Transition Period gives.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,927

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    So the final sacrifice has been made. May will throw herself to the lions to get the WA passed but will it? The Conservatives might rally round but they need every vote to go up against the DUP and the Opposition parties.

    This is the final card she has to play but there are two questions in my mind:

    1) Has the WA changed enough to allow Bercow to even call the vote?
    2) IF it fails what then?

    The WA has not changed significantly, so even if Bercow does allow it, why would anybody change their vote? Why does her departure make any difference to whether the deal is ok?
    If your reason for opposing the Deal is because you hate Theresa May, then it makes a difference.
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    Sandpit said:

    Oh, and as others have said, a load of bollocks from the EU in the last couple of days on internet content and car regulations, doing a good job of reminding a lot of people why they voted to leave in the first place.

    Agreed on internet content, car regs seem reasonable to me.

    Regarding ISA a speed limiter that can be overridden in an emergency seems quite rational. Being able to accelerate in emergencies seems reasonable but if the technology is there to assist in staying within the law why not do so?

    Regarding an on-board black box, planes etc have them without it being unreasonable, many insurance companies now request them especially from younger drivers. I don't see what's unreasonable.

    If the ISA can't be overridden that would be absurd.
    Government tracking, that's what is unreasonable, because that what they want to do.

    Anyway, I'm not totally convinced by the technology. GPS isn't accurate everywhere at all times. What if you are on, eg, the A1(M), which has parallel roads either side, and the limiter decides that you are on one of those? Might be 'interesting'.

    Hidden technology which over-rides the driver in unexpected ways can lead to accidents. Ask Boeing.

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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,991

    GIN1138 said:

    That should be enough now for all members of the Tory Party to vote for the deal.
    1) The Tories alone aren't enough to get the deal through and the DUP remain hostile.
    2) Here's my list of MPs who I expect to be the most challenging to persuade. Some of them have made very indiscreet remarks indeed. Watch what they say before deciding how the deal will do.

    Adam Afriyie (Windsor)
    Lucy Allan (Telford)
    Steve Baker (Wycombe)
    Crispin Blunt (Reigate)
    Peter Bone (Wellingborough)
    Andrew Bridgen (North West Leicestershire)
    Christopher Chope (Christchurch)
    Richard Drax (South Dorset)
    James Duddridge (Rochford and Southend East)
    Mark Francois (Rayleigh and Wickford)
    Marcus Fysh (Yeovil)
    Chris Green (Bolton West)
    Philip Hollobone (Kettering)
    Adam Holloway (Gravesham)
    Ranil Jayawardena (North East Hampshire)
    Andrea Jenkyns (Morley and Outwood)
    Boris Johnson (Uxbridge and South Ruislip)
    David Jones (Clwyd West)
    Julian Lewis (New Forest East)
    Craig Mackinlay (South Thanet)
    Sheryll Murray (South East Cornwall)
    Priti Patel (Witham)
    Owen Paterson (North Shropshire)
    John Redwood (Wokingham)
    Andrew Rosindell (Romford)
    Royston Smith (Southampton Itchen)
    Ross Thomson (Aberdeen South)
    Michael Tomlinson (Mid Dorset and North Poole)
    Anne-Marie Trevelyan (Berwick-upon-Tweed)
    Guto Bebb (Aberconwy)
    Justine Greening (Putney)
    Dominic Grieve (Beaconsfield)
    Sam Gyimah (East Surrey)
    Jo Johnson (Orpington)
    Phillip Lee (Bracknell)
    May's pronouncement is not likely to have any impact on the remainers in that list. They will still oppose the deal.
    And Labour semi-leavers (the ones who don't want to vote for any deal, but want to appear reluctant to back remaining at least) are now free to vote for other options rather than the deal - they can focus on a long extension to pretend to think about brexit options.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    kle4 said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    So the final sacrifice has been made. May will throw herself to the lions to get the WA passed but will it? The Conservatives might rally round but they need every vote to go up against the DUP and the Opposition parties.

    This is the final card she has to play but there are two questions in my mind:

    1) Has the WA changed enough to allow Bercow to even call the vote?
    2) IF it fails what then?

    Bercow probably cannot be persuaded under any circumstances, he is working full tilt to acheive his own outcomes, so it is not a question of if it has changed enough, it's whether he thinks it aids his cause. Is it true though that he has essentially told the government it cannot even suspend standing orders to allow them to vote again regardless? I thought he'd explicitly confirmed that was possible previously.
    I feel like the whole Bercow stuff is a red herring - if a majority in the Commons want something, it's going to happen one way or the other, as the government/Brexiteer Tories learnt when they thought they could trigger No Deal with their procedural wheezes and "legal default" nonsense.

    If there's ever a majority in favour of the deal then Bercow will have to give way; the more important question is whether there ever will be a majority.
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    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,503
    edited March 2019
    The deal is not going to get through, even without Bercow.

    MP's are living in a parallel universe - again - and this time there'll be nowhere to run after the April 11 deadline.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,534
    Sean_F said:

    FWIW, Conor Burns and Gordon Henderson now say they support the WA.

    Both the ERG MPs I’ve been in touch with have now switched.

    Still don’t think it’s enough though.
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Sean_F said:

    Anorak said:

    Despite May's offer to go, I still don't buy that the core nutters in the ERG are bright enough to realise this is their final chance to ensure Brexit. I'd give it 2 hours before one of them is on the telly wittering on about powdered egg and the blitz spirit :(

    "My father didn't fight in the war against the Hun to see this country become a slave to the European Union."
    Indeed.

    I'd pay good money to see Clark and Boles as the final two in the run off for new PM. Mark Francois would be like the Nazi at the end of Raiders of the Lost Ark, melting in apoplexy.
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    You can drive a coach and horses through this.

    https://twitter.com/RaynerSkyNews/status/1110960910414303232

    Are you worried the deal may go through now
    No. I just think May isn't going anywhere. She's baiting the more craven MPs into showing their hand.
    I have said for some time that TM will facillitate a successor election in late spring early summer and it is the right thing to do
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941

    Sandpit said:

    Oh, and as others have said, a load of bollocks from the EU in the last couple of days on internet content and car regulations, doing a good job of reminding a lot of people why they voted to leave in the first place.

    Agreed on internet content, car regs seem reasonable to me.

    Regarding ISA a speed limiter that can be overridden in an emergency seems quite rational. Being able to accelerate in emergencies seems reasonable but if the technology is there to assist in staying within the law why not do so?

    Regarding an on-board black box, planes etc have them without it being unreasonable, many insurance companies now request them especially from younger drivers. I don't see what's unreasonable.

    If the ISA can't be overridden that would be absurd.
    I’m going to take a guess that this isn’t a “120 light” as seen in other countries, this is a GPS tracker designed primarily to allow interaction with self driving cars, and a precursor to non-equipped cars being banned from most roads - or effectively so by being uninsurable.
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    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Still no sign of the DUP, so even if Tory rebels are absolutely minimised (15?), they still need 21 Labour rebels to pass.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,950
    dixiedean said:

    viewcode said:

    Cute that she's announcing it like this is her decision and she had a choice.
    It is her choice. There are ways of forcing her resignation. But they have not been invoked. If resigning gets her deal thru, then good for her. Although it is somewhat late... :(
    And somewhat early to assume this gets her deal through .
    :(
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,991

    George Osborne to win the Maidenhead by election for the Tories this Autumn.

    You heard it here first.

    I think I'll hear it here last, too.
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    History might well treat her far better if this is indeed the outcome...

    https://twitter.com/adamboultonSKY/status/1110956586137206785

    It is a far, far better thing that I do now...
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    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,791
    malcolmg said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Ha Ha the English nationalists do not like democracy
    Nationalists of any stripe generally don't. They thrive on the politics of hate and division. Scottish nationalism is a good example of this; thriving on faux grievances against the British state, when in reality Scots have been massively over represented in the British body-politic and were central to the exercise of British power and colonialism. Then of course there is the little matter of the SNPs flirtation with 1930s fascists, which I know you will deny, a denial that will no doubt be embellished with your usual thuggish insults that further prove my view of the unpleasantness of Scottish nationalists
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    Sean_F said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    So the final sacrifice has been made. May will throw herself to the lions to get the WA passed but will it? The Conservatives might rally round but they need every vote to go up against the DUP and the Opposition parties.

    This is the final card she has to play but there are two questions in my mind:

    1) Has the WA changed enough to allow Bercow to even call the vote?
    2) IF it fails what then?

    The WA has not changed significantly, so even if Bercow does allow it, why would anybody change their vote? Why does her departure make any difference to whether the deal is ok?
    If your reason for opposing the Deal is because you hate Theresa May, then it makes a difference.
    Yup, that's true. How many such nutters do you think there are?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,991
    Fenster said:

    History might well treat her far better if this is indeed the outcome...

    https://twitter.com/adamboultonSKY/status/1110956586137206785

    I was just thinking the same.

    She'll be the Andy Dufresne PM... the woman who dug through a concrete wall and waded through a mile of shit to reach the other side.
    Love it. Here's hoping.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,130
    eek said:
    "When Brexit is approved" will take on the same meaning as "when the sun rises in the west".
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    NormNorm Posts: 1,251

    GIN1138 said:

    That should be enough now for all members of the Tory Party to vote for the deal.
    1) The Tories alone aren't enough to get the deal through and the DUP remain hostile.
    2) Here's my list of MPs who I expect to be the most challenging to persuade. Some of them have made very indiscreet remarks indeed. Watch what they say before deciding how the deal will do.

    Adam Afriyie (Windsor)
    Lucy Allan (Telford)
    Steve Baker (Wycombe)
    Crispin Blunt (Reigate)
    Peter Bone (Wellingborough)
    Andrew Bridgen (North West Leicestershire)
    Christopher Chope (Christchurch)
    Richard Drax (South Dorset)
    James Duddridge (Rochford and Southend East)
    Mark Francois (Rayleigh and Wickford)
    Marcus Fysh (Yeovil)
    Chris Green (Bolton West)
    Philip Hollobone (Kettering)
    Adam Holloway (Gravesham)
    Ranil Jayawardena (North East Hampshire)
    Andrea Jenkyns (Morley and Outwood)
    Boris Johnson (Uxbridge and South Ruislip)
    David Jones (Clwyd West)
    Julian Lewis (New Forest East)
    Craig Mackinlay (South Thanet)
    Sheryll Murray (South East Cornwall)
    Priti Patel (Witham)
    Owen Paterson (North Shropshire)
    John Redwood (Wokingham)
    Andrew Rosindell (Romford)
    Royston Smith (Southampton Itchen)
    Ross Thomson (Aberdeen South)
    Michael Tomlinson (Mid Dorset and North Poole)
    Anne-Marie Trevelyan (Berwick-upon-Tweed)
    Guto Bebb (Aberconwy)
    Justine Greening (Putney)
    Dominic Grieve (Beaconsfield)
    Sam Gyimah (East Surrey)
    Jo Johnson (Orpington)
    Phillip Lee (Bracknell)
    Lucy Allan has switched to backing the WA

    https://www.shropshirestar.com/news/politics/2019/03/27/lucy-allan-announces-support-for-prime-ministers-brexit-deal/
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,314
    Andrew said:

    Still no sign of the DUP, so even if Tory rebels are absolutely minimised (15?), they still need 21 Labour rebels to pass.

    A new leader surely brings a GE closer, so Jezza (given his age etc) might quietly send a few more of his troops over?

    Or am I being too cynical?

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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,991
    Assuming we do Brexit, whoever is PM will need to bow to either the DUP or Labour in order to get anything done for the next phase. Frankly, I'd recommending bowing to Labour on something over the DUP.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941

    You can drive a coach and horses through this.

    https://twitter.com/RaynerSkyNews/status/1110960910414303232

    Are you worried the deal may go through now
    No. I just think May isn't going anywhere. She's baiting the more craven MPs into showing their hand.
    I have said for some time that TM will facillitate a successor election in late spring early summer and it is the right thing to do
    Indeed you have, and indeed it is.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,991

    Andrew said:

    Still no sign of the DUP, so even if Tory rebels are absolutely minimised (15?), they still need 21 Labour rebels to pass.

    A new leader surely brings a GE closer, so Jezza (given his age etc) might quietly send a few more of his troops over?

    Or am I being too cynical?

    It was a longstanding theory that his best chance of becoming PM was that the deal passed, just barely, off the back of Lab rebel votes. UNfortunately for him if that was the plan the deal was too unpopular to pass and Lab rebels too unwilling to add their voices to see it through.
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,505
    Scott_P said:
    He could have written that the day she became PM. She was always going to be a Brexit PM.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941

    eek said:
    "When Brexit is approved" will take on the same meaning as "when the sun rises in the west".
    When travelling on Concorde?
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Sandpit said:

    Oh, and as others have said, a load of bollocks from the EU in the last couple of days on internet content and car regulations, doing a good job of reminding a lot of people why they voted to leave in the first place.

    Agreed on internet content, car regs seem reasonable to me.

    Regarding ISA a speed limiter that can be overridden in an emergency seems quite rational. Being able to accelerate in emergencies seems reasonable but if the technology is there to assist in staying within the law why not do so?

    Regarding an on-board black box, planes etc have them without it being unreasonable, many insurance companies now request them especially from younger drivers. I don't see what's unreasonable.

    If the ISA can't be overridden that would be absurd.
    Government tracking, that's what is unreasonable, because that what they want to do.

    Anyway, I'm not totally convinced by the technology. GPS isn't accurate everywhere at all times. What if you are on, eg, the A1(M), which has parallel roads either side, and the limiter decides that you are on one of those? Might be 'interesting'.

    Hidden technology which over-rides the driver in unexpected ways can lead to accidents. Ask Boeing.

    Its not hidden though and it can be overridden - and if its overridden that is simply recorded. If the limiter determines you're on the wrong rode you override the limiter and that's the end of it.

    Technology that can't be overridden is a terrible idea. Technology that assists but can be overridden makes.

    15 years ago I would have objected to the Big Brother style road charging and the idea of black box tracking where I am driving and the government knowing that. But lets be honest, our mobile phones do that now anyway.
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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,800
    Jonathan said:

    George Osborne to win the Maidenhead by election for the Tories this Autumn.

    You heard it here first.

    You're deliciously evil TSE.
    Forgiveness is available if he runs and wins in Islington North.

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    kle4 said:

    Andrew said:

    Still no sign of the DUP, so even if Tory rebels are absolutely minimised (15?), they still need 21 Labour rebels to pass.

    A new leader surely brings a GE closer, so Jezza (given his age etc) might quietly send a few more of his troops over?

    Or am I being too cynical?

    It was a longstanding theory that his best chance of becoming PM was that the deal passed, just barely, off the back of Lab rebel votes. UNfortunately for him if that was the plan the deal was too unpopular to pass and Lab rebels too unwilling to add their voices to see it through.
    If JC appears even remotely responsible for Brexit happening his favorabilty ratings will plumb new depths.
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
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    When's the DUP statement supposed to be ?
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    History might well treat her far better if this is indeed the outcome...

    https://twitter.com/adamboultonSKY/status/1110956586137206785

    Smooth and orderly Brexit being the slogan repeated four times in the 2017 manifesto. Is the Prime Minister oblivious to change and even the passage of time?
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,994
    Anorak said:

    kjohnw said:

    Anorak said:

    Out of order. Utterly partial. Where on the referendum paper did it mention any of those things?
    https://twitter.com/DExEUgov/status/1110942385775755264

    They are the main reasons people voted leave and were the the main discussions during the referendum campaign, to say otherwise is to ignore reality
    That's not the function of a government department.
    Was it the function of Government departments to campaign for us to stay in the EU?
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,205
    Scott_P said:
    But I thought Thatcher's demise had nothing to do with Europe and everything to do with the Poll Tax Community Charge?
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    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    At the rate Mogg is u-turning he'll soon be campaigning for her to be named President-for-Life.
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Anorak said:

    kjohnw said:

    Anorak said:

    Out of order. Utterly partial. Where on the referendum paper did it mention any of those things?
    https://twitter.com/DExEUgov/status/1110942385775755264

    They are the main reasons people voted leave and were the the main discussions during the referendum campaign, to say otherwise is to ignore reality
    That's not the function of a government department.
    Was it the function of Government departments to campaign for us to stay in the EU?
    Yes. It was policy at the time. The information provided was factual, not a nonsensical and wholly political interpretation of the referendum question.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    The one audience the PM always manages to win over is the 1922 Committee. They fall for it every time.
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    RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    edited March 2019
    What date in May does she exceed Gordon Brown’s tenure?

    Edit: Ah I see. 28th.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,130
    edited March 2019
    tlg86 said:

    Scott_P said:
    But I thought Thatcher's demise had nothing to do with Europe and everything to do with the Poll Tax Community Charge?
    Geoffrey Howe's resignation was over Europe. One of the classic speeches. She was gone within 2 weeks.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMRZM9uTd5Q
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,991
    13 July is her preferred date, no doubt. If she could stand down as party leader on Brexit day, but stay as PM for the replacement contest she would make it to 3 years. But Gordon Brown day is probably a more realistic option, if she can get the deal passed.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,793

    What date in May does she exceed Gordon Brown’s tenure?

    23rd, I think.
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    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,503
    edited March 2019
    Indeed, as if he's still actually envisaging a no-deal Brexit, despite his public statements of support, he might judge her better placed to steer through and towards that, in a way the Brexiters would like, than someone like Liddington or even Gove.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,894
    kle4 said:

    Assuming we do Brexit, whoever is PM will need to bow to either the DUP or Labour in order to get anything done for the next phase. Frankly, I'd recommending bowing to Labour on something over the DUP.

    There will be a general election within 2-3 months I think.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    When's the DUP statement supposed to be ?

    Dunno.

    But Nigel Dodds' most recent activity was liking this tweet:

    https://twitter.com/dcshiels/status/1110829564056518656
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    tlg86 said:

    Scott_P said:
    But I thought Thatcher's demise had nothing to do with Europe and everything to do with the Poll Tax Community Charge?
    Geoffrey Howe's resignation was over Europe. One of the classic speeches.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMRZM9uTd5Q
    A classic and effective speech but not actually a very good one. The cricket analogy makes no sense.
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    AnotherEngineerAnotherEngineer Posts: 64
    edited March 2019


    Its not hidden though and it can be overridden - and if its overridden that is simply recorded. If the limiter determines you're on the wrong rode you override the limiter and that's the end of it.

    Technology that can't be overridden is a terrible idea. Technology that assists but can be overridden makes.

    15 years ago I would have objected to the Big Brother style road charging and the idea of black box tracking where I am driving and the government knowing that. But lets be honest, our mobile phones do that now anyway.

    Not if you don't have a mobile switched on. :-)

    It would still cause the car to slow down, and you'd have to realise what was going on before the old Audi 2 inches behind (and not fitted with a limiter) goes into the back of you.

    If it was just a warning ping if you accelerate past the limit (like most GPS navigation applications do already if you turn it on) then I can't see that being a problem.

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    solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623

    When's the DUP statement supposed to be ?

    The original thought was there was supposed to be one at 6pm although Sky recently said there now wasn't going to be one after all
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,991
    Danny565 said:

    When's the DUP statement supposed to be ?

    Dunno.

    But Nigel Dodds' most recent activity was liking this tweet:

    https://twitter.com/dcshiels/status/1110829564056518656
    The DUP love humiliating themselves, I'm sure he's about to roll back his position. Not.
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    Pesto on Twitter convinced by Downing St insiders leaking that a late May Tory leadership contest is on, like fat Pat's thong.
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited March 2019
    Danny565 said:

    When's the DUP statement supposed to be ?

    Dunno.

    But Nigel Dodds' most recent activity was liking this tweet:

    https://twitter.com/dcshiels/status/1110829564056518656
    Liking something your other half says is common sense, not politics. Ensures that dinner does not end up in the dog, and you don't up on the sofa.

    EDIT: Ok, it is politics, but not Westminster politics. Alright?
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    Danny565 said:

    When's the DUP statement supposed to be ?

    Dunno.

    But Nigel Dodds' most recent activity was liking this tweet:

    https://twitter.com/dcshiels/status/1110829564056518656
    ..so in other words, a lot of all this we're hearing today may be meaningless - again.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061
    It seems highly odd that a bunch of MPs who have been solidly against something in what is the biggest issue facing our country in a generation, should suddenly change their mind and vote for it just because the PM says she'll stand down.

    Either the deal is good enough to vote for, or it is not. Instead they're looking at their chances of getting the top job for themselves or their best buds.

    Every single one of them should vote for the deal and then resign from parliament in disgrace.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,060
    Did I miss anything?
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    rcs1000 said:

    Did I miss anything?

    No
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kle4 said:

    13 July is her preferred date, no doubt. If she could stand down as party leader on Brexit day, but stay as PM for the replacement contest she would make it to 3 years. But Gordon Brown day is probably a more realistic option, if she can get the deal passed.
    Late July or August seems most likely to me. Get us through to 22nd May, then start a leadership contest and hand over once the winner is elected. Two to three months for a leadership contest including a membership vote seems quite probable.
This discussion has been closed.