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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMay’s problem is that the vast majority of voters, including

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  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    Chris said:

    Chris_A said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    stodge said:


    In which case the public will rightly blame EU intransigence for there being no deal. Good.

    Or the EU sees sense and blinks. Good.

    Either way: good.

    How are the EU being intransigent? It's not their problem our Prime Minister can't get the deal she agreed to through her own Parliament.

    No doubt we're going to be subjected to the usual anti-European vitriol from the usual suspects if we leave without a Deal in 60 or so days.

    Of course it is. She should have refused to sign it but they knew full well it wasn't supported and she was saying so until she folded.

    If we leave without a deal it will be because the EU have chosen not to compromise.
    That's true. They're not compromising between the deal that it took two years to negotiate and that we actually asked for, and the deal we just made up which sounds really great in our head.
    People say it took two years to negotiate the deal like it means anything whatsoever.

    A revised deal will be based on this deal and so take most of the groundwork. Furthermore fudges that reach a final compromise generally happen in any negotiation like this in the final moments and not over years.
    27 countries and the European Parliament have to sign off on this. If one of them says no we are fucked. We have 59 days.
    Plus the European Parliament
    The Withdrawal Agreement doesn't need unanimous backing from the 27, only a "super qualified majority". It's extension that requires unanimity.
    But it does need the approval of the European Parliament
  • HYUFD said:

    The real story from tonight is that the Tories are buggered - they deliver No Deal or split. And Dennis Skinner is a Tory scab.

    Most Tory voters prefer No Deal to Remain, most Labour voters want EUref2 with a Remain option over Brexit, if we go to No Deal and Corbyn has not backed EUref2 with a Remain option beforehand it may be Labour most buggered, with the LDs the main beneficiaries
    The added complication after tonight's shenanigans is wtf would be put up against Remain in an EUref2? May's deal, no Deal, May + Brady offer?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,138
    Drutt said:

    viewcode said:

    Foxy said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    stodge said:


    In which case the public will rightly blame EU intransigence for there being no deal. Good.

    Or the EU sees sense and blinks. Good.

    Either way: good.

    How are the EU being intransigent? It's not their problem our Prime Minister can't get the deal she agreed to through her own Parliament.

    No doubt we're going to be subjected to the usual anti-European vitriol from the usual suspects if we leave without a Deal in 60 or so days.

    Of course it is. She should have refused to sign it but they knew full well it wasn't supported and she was saying so until she folded.

    If we leave without a deal it will be because the EU have chosen not to compromise.
    That's true. They're not compromising between the deal that it took two years to negotiate and that we actually asked for, and the deal we just made up which sounds really great in our head.
    People say it took two years to negotiate the deal like it means anything whatsoever.

    A revised deal will be based on this deal and so take most of the groundwork. Furthermore fudges that reach a final compromise generally happen in any negotiation like this in the final moments and not over years.
    27 countries and the European Parliament have to sign off on this. If one of them says no we are fucked. We have 59 days.
    QMV for the WA, Unanimity for the FTA as I recall.

    Though in practice the EU like unity in these matters.
    I know. I'm hiding under the bed again. Oh look, a Lego.
    I was at uni with a girl who is now head of LEGO marketing and I think she will confirm that LEGO does not take an article or a plural. It's 'a bit of LEGO' or 'pieces of LEGO'.

    Strange that this is the most important thing today.
    PB. Infinitely surprising.
  • viewcode said:

    Drutt said:

    viewcode said:

    Foxy said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    stodge said:


    In which case the public will rightly blame EU intransigence for there being no deal. Good.

    Or the EU sees sense and blinks. Good.

    Either way: good.

    How are the EU being intransigent? It's not their problem our Prime Minister can't get the deal she agreed to through her own Parliament.

    No doubt we're going to be subjected to the usual anti-European vitriol from the usual suspects if we leave without a Deal in 60 or so days.

    Of course it is. She should have refused to sign it but they knew full well it wasn't supported and she was saying so until she folded.

    If we leave without a deal it will be because the EU have chosen not to compromise.
    That's true. They're not compromising between the deal that it took two years to negotiate and that we actually asked for, and the deal we just made up which sounds really great in our head.
    People say it took two years to negotiate the deal like it means anything whatsoever.

    A revised deal will be based on this deal and so take most of the groundwork. Furthermore fudges that reach a final compromise generally happen in any negotiation like this in the final moments and not over years.
    27 countries and the European Parliament have to sign off on this. If one of them says no we are fucked. We have 59 days.
    QMV for the WA, Unanimity for the FTA as I recall.

    Though in practice the EU like unity in these matters.
    I know. I'm hiding under the bed again. Oh look, a Lego.
    I was at uni with a girl who is now head of LEGO marketing and I think she will confirm that LEGO does not take an article or a plural. It's 'a bit of LEGO' or 'pieces of LEGO'.

    Strange that this is the most important thing today.
    PB. Infinitely surprising.
    Why I keep coming back to PB.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Floater said:

    Chris_A said:

    Floater said:

    Chris_A said:

    Floater said:

    Chris_A said:

    viewcode said:

    So Brussels - how is that No Deal Brexit looking down your end of the telescope?

    I assume they will deal with it in the same way as they have dealt with every other UK proposal since Cameron's renegotiation: bemusement followed by refusal. Are you expecting something different?
    Frankly, yes. Past forms says something will happen in the final 48 hours of dealing with the EU. That needs No Deal still to be on the table - tick. Irish panicking - tick. Other heads of EU countries wondering "is it worth dying in a ditch for the backstop?" - tick.
    Having to be anxious when travelling on the tube again - tick
    Remind me what the terrorist threat level is again?
    Not the highest. We have that to look forward to when the IRA reactivates.
    Go and look at what the highest level actually means .......

    I know what the highest level means and the first IRA bomb on a border post will raise it to that level. For that we have only the Tories and a dozen or so Labour incompetents to blame.
    Clearly you don't

    Threat level Response
    Critical An attack is expected imminently.

    Currently the threat level is severe

    severe - an attack is highly likely

    Honestly - give it a rest
    Not often we agree Floater but Chris A is out of order with that comment
    Let us enjoy these moments BJO :-)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742

    Foxy said:

    Football's going to kill me this season.

    Ready for the might of Claude Puel's Blue Army!

    How are you doing on the PB FF League? :)
    No Virgil tomorrow so I'm expecting Vardy to pummel us and Puel's Blue Army to win.

    As for the fantasy football, I'm doing as well as Brexit.
    Leicester are all over the place at the moment, so anything can happen.

    VVD trained today, so we will see.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Chris_A said:

    Chris said:

    Chris_A said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    stodge said:


    In which case the public will rightly blame EU intransigence for there being no deal. Good.

    Or the EU sees sense and blinks. Good.

    Either way: good.

    How are the EU being intransigent? It's not their problem our Prime Minister can't get the deal she agreed to through her own Parliament.

    No doubt we're going to be subjected to the usual anti-European vitriol from the usual suspects if we leave without a Deal in 60 or so days.

    Of course it is. She should have refused to sign it but they knew full well it wasn't supported and she was saying so until she folded.

    If we leave without a deal it will be because the EU have chosen not to compromise.
    That's true. They're not compromising between the deal that it took two years to negotiate and that we actually asked for, and the deal we just made up which sounds really great in our head.
    People say it took two years to negotiate the deal like it means anything whatsoever.

    A revised deal will be based on this deal and so take most of the groundwork. Furthermore fudges that reach a final compromise generally happen in any negotiation like this in the final moments and not over years.
    27 countries and the European Parliament have to sign off on this. If one of them says no we are fucked. We have 59 days.
    Plus the European Parliament
    The Withdrawal Agreement doesn't need unanimous backing from the 27, only a "super qualified majority". It's extension that requires unanimity.
    But it does need the approval of the European Parliament
    Yes and this is what mystifies me about people saying that our Parliament can not have a say on the deal when the EU Parliament has a say on the deal as well.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,773

    NEW THREAD

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Hang on they've been defeated? If the government can't bring the same things back after being defeated (Bercow was clear about that) how come backbench MPs can?
    I thought the government are planning to bring the WA back again?
    Not an identical WA though? They've got some get some change or Bercow said he wouldn't allow it to come back?
    She could cite the Spellman amendment as requiring the House to vote on something to avoid No Deal...? Well, here's that something.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,138
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Hang on they've been defeated? If the government can't bring the same things back after being defeated (Bercow was clear about that) how come backbench MPs can?
    I thought the government are planning to bring the WA back again?
    Not an identical WA though? They've got some get some change or Bercow said he wouldn't allow it to come back?
    They're going to change some of the words. Apparently there's going to be a "stopback".
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,876
    So a rather better night for Mrs May than the night of the MV. The choices are narrowing, the clock is ticking and there is now a way out. Difficult but just maybe possible.

    What will remainers do now that their options are largely in the bin? Will they come on board? Not sure that they are ready to give up just yet but things are no longer moving their way.
  • The real story from tonight is that the Tories are buggered - they deliver No Deal or split. And Dennis Skinner is a Tory scab.

    The story tonight is that if May gets the brexiteers onside then the Tories are united.

    Spoiler - she can’t.

    But the EU can. How much do they want a deal?
  • Not a surprise poll... No deal is real brexit so leavers unhappy, remain is no brexit so remainers unhappy. It's almost like the public can see straight through TMays fake brexit...
This discussion has been closed.