In Para 3 the EU rip out reassurance that Backstop is "not a desirable outcome for the Union" and add a bit on the 'integrity of the single market'.
Para 4 the add is designed to remind UK that trust cuts both ways, as does this deal.
Para 5 was controversial part even before the night began (the Irish hated it). It promised to examine whether "any further reassurance can be provided". In the final communique it was ripped out completely and replaced with a pledge to ramp up no-deal preps.
May is now in a worse position than before she started negotiating.
lol
The EU don't actually want a deal, do they?
They think we are heading towards Remain and are doing everything they can to help us on our way.
How on earth can we remain in an organisation that treats us this way?
Good question. Anyone? Anyone?
I think we just have to revoke Article 50 in accordance with our national constitutional requirements.
It would be the best way
We can't be far off one of the sane Leavers calling for A50 revocation. Come back with a serious 10 to 15 year Canada via Norway plan to put in the Tory 2022 manifesto giving the electorate a double or even triple lock in 2027 and 2032 on whether it wants to proceed to the next stage. It's probably now the best way to save Brexit.
If A50 is revoked now, that's it for ever. If leaving now is too difficult, how can it be easier after 10 or 20 years more integration?
Well it wouldn't be any easier. You could only get 3.8% against the Posh Boys and now you are up against the Underwoods. And Trump won't last for ever. If you think this is hard wait till we get a remotely normal US State Department back to act as the other part of a vice with the Franco,- German deep state. But it's a judgement call you need to make about a Brexit reset where Brexiter remains a hypothetical you can campaign for or whether you charge further into the current quagmire.
A friend just texted me the answer for Brexit. A workable outcome that satisfies Remainers and Brexiteers alike. It was brilliant. A way out of this hell in 140 chars.
EUCO have given May an even more brutal rebuff than at Salzburg.
As predicted, the draft addendum has been salami sliced till there's nothing left. I think EUCO are trying to send May a message: "WHICH PART OF THE DEAL IS FINAL DO YOU NOT UNDERSTAND?"
So even the EU affirm the backstop is an insurance only and they intend to start work on an Agreement in 2020, all the rest is just petty party politics games, there is nothing May can do that will get ERG hardliners behind the Deal, if she is to get it through it will be with Labour MPs in Leave seats
EUCO have given May an even more brutal rebuff than at Salzburg.
As predicted, the draft addendum has been salami sliced till there's nothing left. I think EUCO are trying to send May a message: "WHICH PART OF THE DEAL IS FINAL DO YOU NOT UNDERSTAND?"
So even the EU affirm the backstop is an insurance only and they intend to start work on an Agreement in 2020, all the rest is just petty party politics games, there is nothing May can do that will get ERG hardliners behind the Deal, if she is to get it through it will be with Labour MPs in Leave seats
Well yes, we could all have told her that. But this communique actually puts her into a worse position than she started in. A remarkable achievement, even for her.
.....there is nothing May can do that will get ERG hardliners behind the Deal, if she is to get it through it will be with Labour MPs in Leave seats
Mogg has said he'll vote against WA even without the backstop. He's not for reasoning with - nothing short of a nuclear attack on Brussels will satisfy him.
A friend just texted me the answer for Brexit. A workable outcome that satisfies Remainers and Brexiteers alike. It was brilliant. A way out of this hell in 140 chars.
A friend just texted me the answer for Brexit. A workable outcome that satisfies Remainers and Brexiteers alike. It was brilliant. A way out of this hell in 140 chars.
Sadly I deleted it by accident.
Nuke the planet from orbit, it's the only way to be sure.
.....there is nothing May can do that will get ERG hardliners behind the Deal, if she is to get it through it will be with Labour MPs in Leave seats
Mogg has said he'll vote against WTA even without the backstop. He's not for reasoning with - nothing short of a nuclear attack on Brussels will satisfy him.
I wouldn't put it past May, if she thinks it will keep her in office for another 24 hours.
.....there is nothing May can do that will get ERG hardliners behind the Deal, if she is to get it through it will be with Labour MPs in Leave seats
Mogg has said he'll vote against WA even without the backstop. He's not for reasoning with - nothing short of a nuclear attack on Brussels will satisfy him.
I blame his governess. She should be barred from working with the children of important people ever again.
A friend just texted me the answer for Brexit. A workable outcome that satisfies Remainers and Brexiteers alike. It was brilliant. A way out of this hell in 140 chars.
EU announced tonight Bits to pay 7EUR for travel visa last three years. Great negotiating TM.
Irrelevant - we wont leave now
How? No deal is default and parliament is deadlocked.
We both know no deal will be stopped
Do we? How?
A way will be found. Likely Article 50 being revoked or suspended. There is no way a Remain parliament and a Remain establishment is going to let No Deal happen. Simply no chance.
That last crossed out bit is killer isn't it? JRM's Christmas has just come early.
Interesting times! Night all.
IKR. Last minute changed to communiques like this don't happen, unless people are trying to make a big point, in the sharpest possible fashion. In this case:
MRS MAY: NO MORE ASSURANCES, NO MORE RENEGOTIATIONS. WE ARE DONE HERE.
EU announced tonight Bits to pay 7EUR for travel visa last three years. Great negotiating TM.
Irrelevant - we wont leave now
How? No deal is default and parliament is deadlocked.
We both know no deal will be stopped
Do we? How?
Revoke A50 or a referendum
Who will introduce these bills? May won’t. She can’t be moved in time.
What's to stop May moving from The Deal to revoking/suspending Article 50? 'I tried to get my deal through; it wasn't to be, so in the national interest we are tabling a vote to revoke/suspend while we go away and think again'.
.....there is nothing May can do that will get ERG hardliners behind the Deal, if she is to get it through it will be with Labour MPs in Leave seats
Mogg has said he'll vote against WA even without the backstop. He's not for reasoning with - nothing short of a nuclear attack on Brussels will satisfy him.
EUCO have given May an even more brutal rebuff than at Salzburg.
As predicted, the draft addendum has been salami sliced till there's nothing left. I think EUCO are trying to send May a message: "WHICH PART OF THE DEAL IS FINAL DO YOU NOT UNDERSTAND?"
I’m unsure what the EU reasoning for this is. There is a possibility that we will be asked in the near future whether we want to change our minds and associate with the EU again, I cannot fathom why they would think this would be a good idea.
It's utterly standard practice if you've any front line experience of counselling/advice work with irrational , addicted, mentally ill or self harming clients. Most times you save people from themselves. But there are key moments where you brutally let folk experience the consequences of their actions. A night sleeping rough, a service ban or a few days without electricity can be useful at reaching the Metanoia point needed for people to move on. Of course statistically it kills or permanently damages a small minority of clients but to govern is to choose and it works in the vast majority of cases.
EU announced tonight Bits to pay 7EUR for travel visa last three years. Great negotiating TM.
Irrelevant - we wont leave now
How? No deal is default and parliament is deadlocked.
We also know thanks to the Grieve amendment passing if May's Deal falls Parliament can also take over and propose EUref2 or Customs Union + Single Market etc
EU announced tonight Bits to pay 7EUR for travel visa last three years. Great negotiating TM.
Irrelevant - we wont leave now
How? No deal is default and parliament is deadlocked.
We both know no deal will be stopped
Do we? How?
Revoke A50 or a referendum
Who will introduce these bills? May won’t. She can’t be moved in time.
What's to stop May moving from The Deal to revoking/suspending Article 50? 'I tried to get my deal through; it wasn't to be, so in the national interest we are tabling a vote to revoke/suspend while we go away and think again'.
Very unlikely. Not impossible. But very unlikely. She is not giving up her deal.
EU announced tonight Bits to pay 7EUR for travel visa last three years. Great negotiating TM.
Irrelevant - we wont leave now
How? No deal is default and parliament is deadlocked.
We both know no deal will be stopped
Do we? How?
Revoke A50 or a referendum
Who will introduce these bills? May won’t. She can’t be moved in time.
What's to stop May moving from The Deal to revoking/suspending Article 50? 'I tried to get my deal through; it wasn't to be, so in the national interest we are tabling a vote to revoke/suspend while we go away and think again'.
She hasn't tried to get her deal through yet. Although after this catastrophic, and by all reasonable accounts, final chance May will get to demand concessions from the EU, absolutely nothing else is to be gained from dragging this out another day.
Resume the Meaningful Vote business. On Tuesday, let the cards fall where they May.
EU announced tonight Bits to pay 7EUR for travel visa last three years. Great negotiating TM.
Irrelevant - we wont leave now
How? No deal is default and parliament is deadlocked.
We both know no deal will be stopped
Do we? How?
Revoke A50 or a referendum
Who will introduce these bills? May won’t. She can’t be moved in time.
What's to stop May moving from The Deal to revoking/suspending Article 50? 'I tried to get my deal through; it wasn't to be, so in the national interest we are tabling a vote to revoke/suspend while we go away and think again'.
Until and unless the withdrawal act is repealed, she's bound by the procedure set out in it.
EU announced tonight Bits to pay 7EUR for travel visa last three years. Great negotiating TM.
Irrelevant - we wont leave now
How? No deal is default and parliament is deadlocked.
We both know no deal will be stopped
Do we? How?
Revoke A50 or a referendum
Who will introduce these bills? May won’t. She can’t be moved in time.
What's to stop May moving from The Deal to revoking/suspending Article 50? 'I tried to get my deal through; it wasn't to be, so in the national interest we are tabling a vote to revoke/suspend while we go away and think again'.
Very unlikely. Not impossible. But very unlikely. She is not giving up her deal.
The deal has to be voted on and at that time the HOC will take control through amendments
.....there is nothing May can do that will get ERG hardliners behind the Deal, if she is to get it through it will be with Labour MPs in Leave seats
Mogg has said he'll vote against WA even without the backstop. He's not for reasoning with - nothing short of a nuclear attack on Brussels will satisfy him.
EU announced tonight Bits to pay 7EUR for travel visa last three years. Great negotiating TM.
Irrelevant - we wont leave now
How? No deal is default and parliament is deadlocked.
We both know no deal will be stopped
Do we? How?
Revoke A50 or a referendum
Who will introduce these bills? May won’t. She can’t be moved in time.
What's to stop May moving from The Deal to revoking/suspending Article 50? 'I tried to get my deal through; it wasn't to be, so in the national interest we are tabling a vote to revoke/suspend while we go away and think again'.
Very unlikely. Not impossible. But very unlikely. She is not giving up her deal.
It would give her the perfect resignation moment as well: revokes/suspends Article 50 so that we remain in the EU going forward, then stands aside for the Conservative Party and the country to make its decisions without being under the A50 pressure. The last two years didn't happen. The ultmate cop-out but she'll probably be lauded by many.
Fraser Nelson on Newsnight: a growing number of cabinet ministers favour a general election in March next year.
It is going to have to come and in the new year TM should announce it and as labour would support it offf we go
Strong and Stable II !!!!!
Total madness!
The party has to rid itself of its UKIP base
Doubt it. What's much more likely is that Remainers and Leavers are swept away in equal numbers...
For every Andrea Jenkyns losing their seat there will be an Amber Rudd...
In the the end the MP's left will still be split asunder and the membership will probably elect someone like JRM as LOTO.
As long as Corbyn remains Labour leader there is very unlikely to be many Tory seats lost even if Corbyn becomes PM he will likely lack a majority
And anyone who thinks a rainbow Coalition of Labour / SNP / Green / LibDems / PC would be able to lead the country in a strong and stable has not heard them bickering this week
EUCO have given May an even more brutal rebuff than at Salzburg.
As predicted, the draft addendum has been salami sliced till there's nothing left. I think EUCO are trying to send May a message: "WHICH PART OF THE DEAL IS FINAL DO YOU NOT UNDERSTAND?"
So even the EU affirm the backstop is an insurance only and they intend to start work on an Agreement in 2020, all the rest is just petty party politics games, there is nothing May can do that will get ERG hardliners behind the Deal, if she is to get it through it will be with Labour MPs in Leave seats
Well yes, we could all have told her that. But this communique actually puts her into a worse position than she started in. A remarkable achievement, even for her.
It doesn't actually, the EU have affirmed the backstop is an insurance only and aim to work for a subsequent agreement by December 2020, just some of the meaningless less backstoppy language May tried to include like 'does not represent a desirable outcome from the Union' and on further assurances which means sod all in legal terms was removed
Must say that was a shockingly poor performance from Raynor on QT. If she is a leading contender for the day Jezza retires to his manhole museum then we are all even more fucked than we thought.
Fraser Nelson on Newsnight: a growing number of cabinet ministers favour a general election in March next year.
It is going to have to come and in the new year TM should announce it and as labour would support it offf we go
Strong and Stable II !!!!!
Total madness!
The party has to rid itself of its UKIP base
Doubt it. What's much more likely is that Remainers and Leavers are swept away in equal numbers...
For every Andrea Jenkyns losing their seat there will be an Amber Rudd...
In the the end the MP's left will still be split asunder and the membership will probably elect someone like JRM as LOTO.
As long as Corbyn remains Labour leader there is very unlikely to be many Tory seats lost even if Corbyn becomes PM he will likely lack a majority
And anyone who thinks a rainbow Coalition of Labour / SNP / Green / LibDems / PC would be able to lead the country in a strong and stable has not heard them bickering this week
It would be able to lead the country to BINO customs union and single market though while the Tories go to a hard Brexit position in opposition
The EU have had enough and realize nothing they can do at this stage will get the deal over the line . It’s hilarious reading some of the martyr comments in here from Leavers who expect the EU to continue to placate UK MPs who need a reality check.
EUCO have given May an even more brutal rebuff than at Salzburg.
As predicted, the draft addendum has been salami sliced till there's nothing left. I think EUCO are trying to send May a message: "WHICH PART OF THE DEAL IS FINAL DO YOU NOT UNDERSTAND?"
So even the EU affirm the backstop is an insurance only and they intend to start work on an Agreement in 2020, all the rest is just petty party politics games, there is nothing May can do that will get ERG hardliners behind the Deal, if she is to get it through it will be with Labour MPs in Leave seats
Well yes, we could all have told her that. But this communique actually puts her into a worse position than she started in. A remarkable achievement, even for her.
It doesn't actually
She told her party she was going to get "legally binding assurance" about the backstop being undesirable for the EU too. They actually removed that text, and replaced it with text affirming the backstop is there to protect the single market.
Not only has May not gotten what she promised on the backstop from her party or the DUP, she's actually gottent the EUCO to re-affirm their support for it!
This has contrived to make May's impossible parliamentary arithmetic even harder, because she's now lied to her party and DUP (again) about the backstop, and suffered what is being widely reported as a "rebuff", "humiliation", "Salzburg 2.0" and my personal favorite, "diplomatic disaster".
EUCO have given May an even more brutal rebuff than at Salzburg.
As predicted, the draft addendum has been salami sliced till there's nothing left. I think EUCO are trying to send May a message: "WHICH PART OF THE DEAL IS FINAL DO YOU NOT UNDERSTAND?"
I’m unsure what the EU reasoning for this is. There is a possibility that we will be asked in the near future whether we want to change our minds and associate with the EU again, I cannot fathom why they would think this would be a good idea.
The natural response from anyone with any backbone is a resolution that we need to leave these people behind. Unfortunately the response from our wet MPs will be 'oh, leaving is just too hard, let's not bother'. Like the beaten wife always returning home.
Fraser Nelson on Newsnight: a growing number of cabinet ministers favour a general election in March next year.
It is going to have to come and in the new year TM should announce it and as labour would support it offf we go
Strong and Stable II !!!!!
Total madness!
The party has to rid itself of its UKIP base
Doubt it. What's much more likely is that Remainers and Leavers are swept away in equal numbers...
For every Andrea Jenkyns losing their seat there will be an Amber Rudd...
In the the end the MP's left will still be split asunder and the membership will probably elect someone like JRM as LOTO.
As long as Corbyn remains Labour leader there is very unlikely to be many Tory seats lost even if Corbyn becomes PM he will likely lack a majority
And anyone who thinks a rainbow Coalition of Labour / SNP / Green / LibDems / PC would be able to lead the country in a strong and stable has not heard them bickering this week
It would be able to lead the country to BINO customs union and single market though while the Tories go to a hard Brexit position in opposition
I just don’t see how it would last more than a couple of weeks. They would all be jockeying for their nationalist / left wing / eco credentials. The Libdems won’t sign up after getting shafted last time. If we think it is chaos now I can’t see it getting better any time soon
Indeed, but you can see why the EU might be giving her such short shrift, asking for legally-binding but completely non-specific assurances to water down the backstop she spent 18 months getting negotiated and signed off.
Fraser Nelson on Newsnight: a growing number of cabinet ministers favour a general election in March next year.
It is going to have to come and in the new year TM should announce it and as labour would support it offf we go
Strong and Stable II !!!!!
Total madness!
The party has to rid itself of its UKIP base
Doubt it. What's much more likely is that Remainers and Leavers are swept away in equal numbers...
For every Andrea Jenkyns losing their seat there will be an Amber Rudd...
In the the end the MP's left will still be split asunder and the membership will probably elect someone like JRM as LOTO.
As long as Corbyn remains Labour leader there is very unlikely to be many Tory seats lost even if Corbyn becomes PM he will likely lack a majority
And anyone who thinks a rainbow Coalition of Labour / SNP / Green / LibDems / PC would be able to lead the country in a strong and stable has not heard them bickering this week
It would be able to lead the country to BINO customs union and single market though while the Tories go to a hard Brexit position in opposition
I just don’t see how it would last more than a couple of weeks. They would all be jockeying for their nationalist / left wing / eco credentials. The Libdems won’t sign up after getting shafted last time. If we think it is chaos now I can’t see it getting better any time soon
That's all it needs, practically. Just long enough to get the referendum bill passed, or the revocation of A50 and related repeal bills/cleanup legislation.
Fraser Nelson on Newsnight: a growing number of cabinet ministers favour a general election in March next year.
It is going to have to come and in the new year TM should announce it and as labour would support it offf we go
Strong and Stable II !!!!!
Total madness!
The party has to rid itself of its UKIP base
Doubt it. What's much more likely is that Remainers and Leavers are swept away in equal numbers...
For every Andrea Jenkyns losing their seat there will be an Amber Rudd...
In the the end the MP's left will still be split asunder and the membership will probably elect someone like JRM as LOTO.
As long as Corbyn remains Labour leader there is very unlikely to be many Tory seats lost even if Corbyn becomes PM he will likely lack a majority
And anyone who thinks a rainbow Coalition of Labour / SNP / Green / LibDems / PC would be able to lead the country in a strong and stable has not heard them bickering this week
It would be able to lead the country to BINO customs union and single market though while the Tories go to a hard Brexit position in opposition
I just don’t see how it would last more than a couple of weeks. They would all be jockeying for their nationalist / left wing / eco credentials. The Libdems won’t sign up after getting shafted last time. If we think it is chaos now I can’t see it getting better any time soon
The LDs will vote for single market and Customs Union over No Deal, it would last long enough to get the job done even if the Tory opposition builds up a big poll lead having opposition effectively to itself
EUCO have given May an even more brutal rebuff than at Salzburg.
As predicted, the draft addendum has been salami sliced till there's nothing left. I think EUCO are trying to send May a message: "WHICH PART OF THE DEAL IS FINAL DO YOU NOT UNDERSTAND?"
So even the EU affirm the backstop is an insurance only and they intend to start work on an Agreement in 2020, all the rest is just petty party politics games, there is nothing May can do that will get ERG hardliners behind the Deal, if she is to get it through it will be with Labour MPs in Leave seats
Well yes, we could all have told her that. But this communique actually puts her into a worse position than she started in. A remarkable achievement, even for her.
It doesn't actually
She told her party she was going to get "legally binding assurance" about the backstop being undesirable for the EU too. They actually removed that text, and replaced it with text affirming the backstop is there to protect the single market.
Not only has May not gotten what she promised on the backstop from her party or the DUP, she's actually gottent the EUCO to re-affirm their support for it!
This has contrived to make May's impossible parliamentary arithmetic even harder, because she's now lied to her party and DUP (again) about the backstop, and suffered what is being widely reported as a "rebuff", "humiliation", "Salzburg 2.0" and my personal favorite, "diplomatic disaster".
The EU have affirmed the backstop is an insurance measure only and they aim to have an agreement in place by December 2020 to ensure it is not triggered, all the rest is just semantics and largely irrelevant
Fraser Nelson on Newsnight: a growing number of cabinet ministers favour a general election in March next year.
It is going to have to come and in the new year TM should announce it and as labour would support it offf we go
Strong and Stable II !!!!!
Total madness!
The party has to rid itself of its UKIP base
Doubt it. What's much more likely is that Remainers and Leavers are swept away in equal numbers...
For every Andrea Jenkyns losing their seat there will be an Amber Rudd...
In the the end the MP's left will still be split asunder and the membership will probably elect someone like JRM as LOTO.
As long as Corbyn remains Labour leader there is very unlikely to be many Tory seats lost even if Corbyn becomes PM he will likely lack a majority
And anyone who thinks a rainbow Coalition of Labour / SNP / Green / LibDems / PC would be able to lead the country in a strong and stable has not heard them bickering this week
It would be able to lead the country to BINO customs union and single market though while the Tories go to a hard Brexit position in opposition
I just don’t see how it would last more than a couple of weeks. They would all be jockeying for their nationalist / left wing / eco credentials. The Libdems won’t sign up after getting shafted last time. If we think it is chaos now I can’t see it getting better any time soon
The LDs will vote for single market and Customs Union over No Deal, it would last long enough to get the job done even if the Tory opposition builds up a big poll lead having opposition effectively to itself
Whilst I agree a deal could be made over Brexit there is the little issue of the rest of everything a Government has to do. It will not work - there will be another election probably unclear outcome. In normal times I would suggest a unity government but cannot see it whilst Corbyn is around - he is not the type of politician to cooperate.
TBH whilst I can’t stand Corbyn I would love to see him try and negotiate a better Brexit deal with the EU.
Fraser Nelson on Newsnight: a growing number of cabinet ministers favour a general election in March next year.
It is going to have to come and in the new year TM should announce it and as labour would support it offf we go
Strong and Stable II !!!!!
Total madness!
The party has to rid itself of its UKIP base
Doubt it. What's much more likely is that Remainers and Leavers are swept away in equal numbers...
For every Andrea Jenkyns losing their seat there will be an Amber Rudd...
In the the end the MP's left will still be split asunder and the membership will probably elect someone like JRM as LOTO.
As long as Corbyn remains Labour leader there is very unlikely to be many Tory seats lost even if Corbyn becomes PM he will likely lack a majority
And anyone who thinks a rainbow Coalition of Labour / SNP / Green / LibDems / PC would be able to lead the country in a strong and stable has not heard them bickering this week
It would be able to lead the country to BINO customs union and single market though while the Tories go to a hard Brexit position in opposition
I just don’t see how it would last more than a couple of weeks. They would all be jockeying for their nationalist / left wing / eco credentials. The Libdems won’t sign up after getting shafted last time. If we think it is chaos now I can’t see it getting better any time soon
That's all it needs, practically. Just long enough to get the referendum bill passed, or the revocation of A50 and related repeal bills/cleanup legislation.
EUCO have given May an even more brutal rebuff than at Salzburg.
As predicted, the draft addendum has been salami sliced till there's nothing left. I think EUCO are trying to send May a message: "WHICH PART OF THE DEAL IS FINAL DO YOU NOT UNDERSTAND?"
So even the EU affirm the backstop is an insurance only and they intend to start work on an Agreement in 2020, all the rest is just petty party politics games, there is nothing May can do that will get ERG hardliners behind the Deal, if she is to get it through it will be with Labour MPs in Leave seats
In 2020? What the bloody hell are they going to talk about in 2019 if not the agreement?
Fraser Nelson on Newsnight: a growing number of cabinet ministers favour a general election in March next year.
It is going to have to come and in the new year TM should announce it and as labour would support it offf we go
Strong and Stable II !!!!!
Total madness!
The party has to rid itself of its UKIP base
Doubt it. What's much more likely is that Remainers and Leavers are swept away in equal numbers...
For every Andrea Jenkyns losing their seat there will be an Amber Rudd...
In the the end the MP's left will still be split asunder and the membership will probably elect someone like JRM as LOTO.
As long as Corbyn remains Labour leader there is very unlikely to be many Tory seats lost even if Corbyn becomes PM he will likely lack a majority
And anyone who thinks a rainbow Coalition of Labour / SNP / Green / LibDems / PC would be able to lead the country in a strong and stable has not heard them bickering this week
It would be able to lead the country to BINO customs union and single market though while the Tories go to a hard Brexit position in opposition
I just don’t see how it would last more than a couple of weeks. They would all be jockeying for their nationalist / left wing / eco credentials. The Libdems won’t sign up after getting shafted last time. If we think it is chaos now I can’t see it getting better any time soon
The LDs will vote for single market and Customs Union over No Deal, it would last long enough to get the job done even if the Tory opposition builds up a big poll lead having opposition effectively to itself
Whilst I agree a deal could be made over Brexit there is the little issue of the rest of everything a Government has to do. It will not work - there will be another election probably unclear outcome. In normal times I would suggest a unity government but cannot see it whilst Corbyn is around - he is not the type of politician to cooperate.
TBH whilst I can’t stand Corbyn I would love to see him try and negotiate a better Brexit deal with the EU.
I think there is a great deal of complacency among Remainers that looming No Deal makes Remain more likely.
And I think there's a great deal of complacency among No Dealers that Project Fear (Mark 2.0) is dramatically overdone, and that we will be able to sail through the process with no ill effects.
I'm here to tell you that both these complacencies are incorrect. No Deal, not Remain, is the default. Politics follows the path of least resistance, and too many in the Labour Party see No Deal Brexit as an event that - while it might cause distress to the country - will cause more to the Conservative Party. No Deal, they say, bring it on, for it is the Tories who will be blamed.
No Dealers? Three issues. The biggest is to think that the world is divided between perfidious Europeans, and the rest of the world, made of moral free traders. Let me tell you a secret: Europeans, Nation Staters, Americans, Saudis, Russians, Chinese, Australians and Chileans - they're all out for themselves. They won't look at a UK-?? relationship, and ask themselves "how do we maximise the pie?", they will ask "how do I maximise my share?"
The second one is to see small adminstrative issues as, well, small administrative issues. Individually, they're small, cumulatively they're massive.
Thirdly, the UK economy is sick. And it's not sick because of membership of the EU, but because governments have repeatedly prioritised spending over saving. Over the 21 years since 1997 we'been as profligate as the Greeks - it just hasn't come home to roost yet.
No Dealers, you won't go down as heroes, you'll go down as deluded. Remainers won't get the pleasure of schadenfreuda, you'll be seen as complicit. Your inaction is every bit as reprehensible as the that of the No Dealers.
And underlying all this is a fundamental misconception. Whatever is agreed, whatever is said in the legal texts, everything is always up for renegotiation. Scotland has no "exit clause", but does anyone doubt that if they voted to go, we'd let them? Before the Lisbon Treaty, there was not "how to leave the EU" method, yet Greenland managed it. Does anyone seriously think that if the Brits had voted in 2001 to leave the EU, then we could not have achieved it due to the lack of an exit clause?
Theresa May's deal is not perfect. Most importantly, it must be the people of Northern Ireland who should choose whether they remain in the backstop. But the deal is an exit. It honours the referendum result. It will neither torpedo the British democratic system, nor cause serious economic hardships. And whatever is agreed now, it will not last forever.
Swedish PM Stefan Löfven faces a parliamentary vote later today on his latest attempt to form a government. The problem is the parliament just approved the opposition's budget on Wednesday. Not sure how that combination works.
May's deal will not be able to get through Parliament
May cannot be removed internally for a year
A50 requires a commons vote to be revoked, which is unlikely to pass
The public would return an even more hung parliament if asked
Labour have (very wisely) no intention of taking government
A referendum with remain and May's deal as the two options would result in the deal winning, hence pro-remain MPs are unlikely to vote for such a thing.
.....there is nothing May can do that will get ERG hardliners behind the Deal, if she is to get it through it will be with Labour MPs in Leave seats
Mogg has said he'll vote against WA even without the backstop. He's not for reasoning with - nothing short of a nuclear attack on Brussels will satisfy him.
Mogg is in incompetent foiled assassin sulk mode.
He was already like that before they failed - for example his ridiculous attack on Carney.
A referendum with remain and May's deal as the two options would result in the deal winning, hence pro-remain MPs are unlikely to vote for such a thing.
I'm sure they'd be willing to take their chances.
The hard part is, even if TMay were willing to do such a thing, whether enough of them care about it enough to sustain her in office for long enough to pass the legislation to do this.
EU announced tonight Bits to pay 7EUR for travel visa last three years. Great negotiating TM.
Irrelevant - we wont leave now
How? No deal is default and parliament is deadlocked.
We both know no deal will be stopped
Do we? How?
A way will be found. Likely Article 50 being revoked or suspended. There is no way a Remain parliament and a Remain establishment is going to let No Deal happen. Simply no chance.
I fear a big part of Labour's strategy would allow us to fall from the cliff provided it is the Tories who get the blame.
Fraser Nelson on Newsnight: a growing number of cabinet ministers favour a general election in March next year.
They are aware that May would be the leader at that point right? As she has said she has no intention of leading them into a 2022 GE.
Maybe they have the kind of memory that makes a goldfish proud as to what happened last time she was on the stump.
It's possible it's the other way around. For how can May actually lead a GE campaign and put herself up for next PM after what she has said? Surely the truth is that as soon as a GE is called (or even looks imminent), she has to resign?
Why did May not ask for rUK to remain in single market for goods within backstop perhaps obviating potential Irish Sea regulatory barriers ? It does not affect the remainder of the WA and could have been provided via legal addendum like Spain's Gibraltar clarification.
EU announced tonight Bits to pay 7EUR for travel visa last three years. Great negotiating TM.
Irrelevant - we wont leave now
How? No deal is default and parliament is deadlocked.
We both know no deal will be stopped
Do we? How?
A way will be found. Likely Article 50 being revoked or suspended. There is no way a Remain parliament and a Remain establishment is going to let No Deal happen. Simply no chance.
I fear a big part of Labour's strategy would allow us to fall from the cliff provided it is the Tories who get the blame.
At what point in the process to Labour MPs decide that the deal on offer is better than no deal?
To me, this is now the key question for the next three months, and determines whether we leave with the deal or without it. The failure of Conservative rebel MPs on both sides to unseat the PM this week mads no deal much more likely IMO.
Fraser Nelson on Newsnight: a growing number of cabinet ministers favour a general election in March next year.
They are aware that May would be the leader at that point right? As she has said she has no intention of leading them into a 2022 GE.
Maybe they have the kind of memory that makes a goldfish proud as to what happened last time she was on the stump.
It's possible it's the other way around. For how can May actually lead a GE campaign and put herself up for next PM after what she has said? Surely the truth is that as soon as a GE is called (or even looks imminent), she has to resign?
It loooks sufficiently at risk of being imminent to mean that half her Cabinet will be focussed on getting their leadership bid underway. It's now all about the succession.
EU announced tonight Bits to pay 7EUR for travel visa last three years. Great negotiating TM.
Irrelevant - we wont leave now
How? No deal is default and parliament is deadlocked.
We both know no deal will be stopped
Do we? How?
A way will be found. Likely Article 50 being revoked or suspended. There is no way a Remain parliament and a Remain establishment is going to let No Deal happen. Simply no chance.
I fear a big part of Labour's strategy would allow us to fall from the cliff provided it is the Tories who get the blame.
EU announced tonight Bits to pay 7EUR for travel visa last three years. Great negotiating TM.
Irrelevant - we wont leave now
How? No deal is default and parliament is deadlocked.
We both know no deal will be stopped
Do we? How?
A way will be found. Likely Article 50 being revoked or suspended. There is no way a Remain parliament and a Remain establishment is going to let No Deal happen. Simply no chance.
I fear a big part of Labour's strategy would allow us to fall from the cliff provided it is the Tories who get the blame.
That looks to be Corbyn's strategy.
If the Tories take us over the edge, it will probably work. A classic case of where self interest is hugely at variance with the national interest.
No, it's the inevitable consequence of a deal that already provides what she wants (since the EU doesn't want us in the backstop and it is supposed to be temporary) that May cannot sell because she is trying to sell a deal to people who don't want one, and never did, May should have realised from the beginning that she would never get the fruitcake wing of her own party on board for any settlement, and planned accordingly.
There must come a point soon when sensible Tories realise they need a deal with the opposition, or at least to be seen trying to secure one,
Labour MPs would go for a referendum. I can't see many of them voting for the deal even if May attempts blackmail by running down the clock.
Will May and 98% of Tories be happy to crash out without a deal is the bit I am less sure on.
Or the other alternative is will the Conservatives be able to win around their own rebels. If the Tories vote for it I think you could get enough votes from the rest of the house for it to pass.
No, it's the inevitable consequence of a deal that already provides what she wants (since the EU doesn't want us in the backstop and it is supposed to be temporary) that May cannot sell because she is trying to sell a deal to people who don't want one, and never did, May should have realised from the beginning that she would never get the fruitcake wing of her own party on board for any settlement, and planned accordingly.
There must come a point soon when sensible Tories realise they need a deal with the opposition, or at least to be seen trying to secure one,
I would suggest a deal that will not pass the House does not provide what she wants.
Irrespective, time to start preparing those side deals. And to confirm that we will not be charging tariffs on, for example, automotive parts coming into the UK. Better late No Deal preparation than no No Deal preparation. And confirming that all medicines will continue to flow into the UK, unimpeded. You're there for the duration, May. So show us what you got.
EU announced tonight Bits to pay 7EUR for travel visa last three years. Great negotiating TM.
Irrelevant - we wont leave now
How? No deal is default and parliament is deadlocked.
We both know no deal will be stopped
Do we? How?
A way will be found. Likely Article 50 being revoked or suspended. There is no way a Remain parliament and a Remain establishment is going to let No Deal happen. Simply no chance.
I fear a big part of Labour's strategy would allow us to fall from the cliff provided it is the Tories who get the blame.
Then should not the Tories step away from the edge?
At Salzburg the EU leaders treated Theresa May dreadfully. Last night she got the treatment she deserved. If you sign a deal, then ask for a renegotiation, then do not articulate what you actually substantively want, you are going to be monstered.
EU announced tonight Bits to pay 7EUR for travel visa last three years. Great negotiating TM.
Irrelevant - we wont leave now
How? No deal is default and parliament is deadlocked.
We both know no deal will be stopped
Do we? How?
A way will be found. Likely Article 50 being revoked or suspended. There is no way a Remain parliament and a Remain establishment is going to let No Deal happen. Simply no chance.
I fear a big part of Labour's strategy would allow us to fall from the cliff provided it is the Tories who get the blame.
Then should not the Tories step away from the edge?
At Salzburg the EU leaders treated Theresa May dreadfully. Last night she got the treatment she deserved. If you sign a deal, then ask for a renegotiation, then do not articulate what you actually substantively want, you are going to be monstered.
Almost the entire British political system looks beyond help right now. And the almost might be superfluous
At Salzburg the EU leaders treated Theresa May dreadfully. Last night she got the treatment she deserved. If you sign a deal, then ask for a renegotiation, then do not articulate what you actually substantively want, you are going to be monstered.
It's worse when you add the real context:
* Wasting time * Prolonging uncertainty for millions of people whose lives could be screwed in just a few months * To close down options that might solve the problem * With no apparent benefit except to sustain herself in office a little bit longer * By wasting the time of 27 national leaders with more serious problems to deal with
If we end up with a second referendum, which I must admit after this shambles of an attempted renegotiation I lean a little more toward tonight, the entire process will have been a VERY worthwhile exercise in showing up the absolute lack of talent, imagination, failure to engage with reality, wishful thinking and all round incompetence of our politics.
EU announced tonight Bits to pay 7EUR for travel visa last three years. Great negotiating TM.
Irrelevant - we wont leave now
How? No deal is default and parliament is deadlocked.
We both know no deal will be stopped
Do we? How?
A way will be found. Likely Article 50 being revoked or suspended. There is no way a Remain parliament and a Remain establishment is going to let No Deal happen. Simply no chance.
I fear a big part of Labour's strategy would allow us to fall from the cliff provided it is the Tories who get the blame.
Then should not the Tories step away from the edge?
Corbyn could "reluctantly for the national interest" agree to abstain on the meaningful vote adding that he will test the confidence of the house after such a move. If the DUP stay true to their word then he gets a GE. If they back the Tories he could hold a national exec where A50 revocation is agreed and block the further legislation needed for the WA dependant on a second referendum. OK so it is playing games to some degree, but the DUP would have to back the deal which seems unlikely. That would be far more responsible than just digging in with the current impasse.
EU announced tonight Bits to pay 7EUR for travel visa last three years. Great negotiating TM.
Irrelevant - we wont leave now
How? No deal is default and parliament is deadlocked.
We both know no deal will be stopped
Do we? How?
A way will be found. Likely Article 50 being revoked or suspended. There is no way a Remain parliament and a Remain establishment is going to let No Deal happen. Simply no chance.
I fear a big part of Labour's strategy would allow us to fall from the cliff provided it is the Tories who get the blame.
Then should not the Tories step away from the edge?
All the Tories stepping way from the edge does not take the UK away from the edge. It's the numbers.....
EU announced tonight Bits to pay 7EUR for travel visa last three years. Great negotiating TM.
Irrelevant - we wont leave now
How? No deal is default and parliament is deadlocked.
We both know no deal will be stopped
Do we? How?
A way will be found. Likely Article 50 being revoked or suspended. There is no way a Remain parliament and a Remain establishment is going to let No Deal happen. Simply no chance.
I fear a big part of Labour's strategy would allow us to fall from the cliff provided it is the Tories who get the blame.
At what point in the process to Labour MPs decide that the deal on offer is better than no deal?
To me, this is now the key question for the next three months, and determines whether we leave with the deal or without it. The failure of Conservative rebel MPs on both sides to unseat the PM this week mads no deal much more likely IMO.
I disagree. No deal would have been equally, if not more likely had May been unseated. That would not have changed the Parliamentary arithmetic, and there is no alternate leave plan available.
The question is not just whether there are enough Labour MPs who decide that May’s deal is better than no deal, but also whether they think a second referendum is or isn’t possible, and whether they think they can get a third outcome like remain, or an extension and renegotiation (fantasy though that is).
EU announced tonight Bits to pay 7EUR for travel visa last three years. Great negotiating TM.
Irrelevant - we wont leave now
How? No deal is default and parliament is deadlocked.
We both know no deal will be stopped
Do we? How?
A way will be found. Likely Article 50 being revoked or suspended. There is no way a Remain parliament and a Remain establishment is going to let No Deal happen. Simply no chance.
I fear a big part of Labour's strategy would allow us to fall from the cliff provided it is the Tories who get the blame.
Then should not the Tories step away from the edge?
All the Tories stepping way from the edge does not take the UK away from the edge. It's the numbers.....
EU announced tonight Bits to pay 7EUR for travel visa last three years. Great negotiating TM.
Irrelevant - we wont leave now
How? No deal is default and parliament is deadlocked.
We both know no deal will be stopped
Do we? How?
A way will be found. Likely Article 50 being revoked or suspended. There is no way a Remain parliament and a Remain establishment is going to let No Deal happen. Simply no chance.
I fear a big part of Labour's strategy would allow us to fall from the cliff provided it is the Tories who get the blame.
Then should not the Tories step away from the edge?
Corbyn could "reluctantly for the national interest" agree to abstain on the meaningful vote adding that he will test the confidence of the house after such a move. If the DUP stay true to their word then he gets a GE. If they back the Tories he could hold a national exec where A50 revocation is agreed and block the further legislation needed for the WA dependant on a second referendum. OK so it is playing games to some degree, but the DUP would have to back the deal which seems unlikely. That would be far more responsible than just digging in with the current impasse.
It’s a theoretical possibility, but seems unlikely to me. It would actually be a statesmanlike thing to do. I’d be interested in Nick Palmer’s opinion of this.
Comments
Lucky, lucky Corbyn.
Of course the rest of us are going to get the old "no lube" treatment.
Going to be a rough time ahead.
Laura Kuenssberg (whose general reporting has been dismal throughout Brexit) now seems to think it's Juncker's job to be "helpful" to Theresa May.
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1073355430884241409
Interesting times! Night all.
Fog in channel. Continent cut off.
Summary, the political class are really, really bad.
Peoples vote lot are total fools.
https://news.liverpool.ac.uk/2018/12/13/full-speech-sir-ivan-rogers-on-brexit/
MRS MAY: NO MORE ASSURANCES, NO MORE RENEGOTIATIONS. WE ARE DONE HERE.
As interim PM.
Resume the Meaningful Vote business. On Tuesday, let the cards fall where they May.
1) Promise Corbyn a general election in return for mass abstentions
2) Referendum of some form
Not only has May not gotten what she promised on the backstop from her party or the DUP, she's actually gottent the EUCO to re-affirm their support for it!
This has contrived to make May's impossible parliamentary arithmetic even harder, because she's now lied to her party and DUP (again) about the backstop, and suffered what is being widely reported as a "rebuff", "humiliation", "Salzburg 2.0" and my personal favorite, "diplomatic disaster".
https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1073363165663117313
https://twitter.com/laurnorman/status/1073360848972857346
Zig-a-zig ahhh?
https://twitter.com/JamesCrisp6/status/1073378170898919424
TBH whilst I can’t stand Corbyn I would love to see him try and negotiate a better Brexit deal with the EU.
And I think there's a great deal of complacency among No Dealers that Project Fear (Mark 2.0) is dramatically overdone, and that we will be able to sail through the process with no ill effects.
I'm here to tell you that both these complacencies are incorrect. No Deal, not Remain, is the default. Politics follows the path of least resistance, and too many in the Labour Party see No Deal Brexit as an event that - while it might cause distress to the country - will cause more to the Conservative Party. No Deal, they say, bring it on, for it is the Tories who will be blamed.
No Dealers? Three issues. The biggest is to think that the world is divided between perfidious Europeans, and the rest of the world, made of moral free traders. Let me tell you a secret: Europeans, Nation Staters, Americans, Saudis, Russians, Chinese, Australians and Chileans - they're all out for themselves. They won't look at a UK-?? relationship, and ask themselves "how do we maximise the pie?", they will ask "how do I maximise my share?"
The second one is to see small adminstrative issues as, well, small administrative issues. Individually, they're small, cumulatively they're massive.
Thirdly, the UK economy is sick. And it's not sick because of membership of the EU, but because governments have repeatedly prioritised spending over saving. Over the 21 years since 1997 we'been as profligate as the Greeks - it just hasn't come home to roost yet.
No Dealers, you won't go down as heroes, you'll go down as deluded. Remainers won't get the pleasure of schadenfreuda, you'll be seen as complicit. Your inaction is every bit as reprehensible as the that of the No Dealers.
And underlying all this is a fundamental misconception. Whatever is agreed, whatever is said in the legal texts, everything is always up for renegotiation. Scotland has no "exit clause", but does anyone doubt that if they voted to go, we'd let them? Before the Lisbon Treaty, there was not "how to leave the EU" method, yet Greenland managed it. Does anyone seriously think that if the Brits had voted in 2001 to leave the EU, then we could not have achieved it due to the lack of an exit clause?
Theresa May's deal is not perfect. Most importantly, it must be the people of Northern Ireland who should choose whether they remain in the backstop. But the deal is an exit. It honours the referendum result. It will neither torpedo the British democratic system, nor cause serious economic hardships. And whatever is agreed now, it will not last forever.
https://www.thelocal.se/20181212/parliament-to-vote-on-stefan-lofven-as-pm
May's deal will not be able to get through Parliament
May cannot be removed internally for a year
A50 requires a commons vote to be revoked, which is unlikely to pass
The public would return an even more hung parliament if asked
Labour have (very wisely) no intention of taking government
A referendum with remain and May's deal as the two options would result in the deal winning, hence pro-remain MPs are unlikely to vote for such a thing.
What a mess.
The hard part is, even if TMay were willing to do such a thing, whether enough of them care about it enough to sustain her in office for long enough to pass the legislation to do this.
It does not affect the remainder of the WA and could have been provided via legal addendum like Spain's Gibraltar clarification.
Did anyone even ask for it ??????
To me, this is now the key question for the next three months, and determines whether we leave with the deal or without it. The failure of Conservative rebel MPs on both sides to unseat the PM this week mads no deal much more likely IMO.
"Brexit: EU says no to May on renegotiaiting deal" - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46560807
There must come a point soon when sensible Tories realise they need a deal with the opposition, or at least to be seen trying to secure one,
Will May and 98% of Tories be happy to crash out without a deal is the bit I am less sure on.
Or the other alternative is will the Conservatives be able to win around their own rebels. If the Tories vote for it I think you could get enough votes from the rest of the house for it to pass.
Irrespective, time to start preparing those side deals. And to confirm that we will not be charging tariffs on, for example, automotive parts coming into the UK. Better late No Deal preparation than no No Deal preparation. And confirming that all medicines will continue to flow into the UK, unimpeded. You're there for the duration, May. So show us what you got.
* Wasting time
* Prolonging uncertainty for millions of people whose lives could be screwed in just a few months
* To close down options that might solve the problem
* With no apparent benefit except to sustain herself in office a little bit longer
* By wasting the time of 27 national leaders with more serious problems to deal with
She got off lightly.
That would be far more responsible than just digging in with the current impasse.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/12/13/civil-war-breaks-among-tories-chancellor-branded-moron-calling
The question is not just whether there are enough Labour MPs who decide that May’s deal is better than no deal, but also whether they think a second referendum is or isn’t possible, and whether they think they can get a third outcome like remain, or an extension and renegotiation (fantasy though that is).
I am not hugely optimistic.
It would actually be a statesmanlike thing to do. I’d be interested in Nick Palmer’s opinion of this.