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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. May fights on – so what now?

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  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    The DUP are supposed to want to keep NI in the UK.
    --> they're risking exactly the opposite.

    My Irish wife said yesterday that she thought the DUP wanted a hard border because they saw it as the way to ensure that demographics didn't lead to a united Ireland as such a border would create a practical division across the island
    Given that NI itself is nearly 50-50 now, you would soon end up with a majority Catholic statelet next to a majority Catholic state
  • I bet the ERG wish sir Graham’s shredder hadn’t broken until today. The reports of the Maybot not having a clue what she wants I am sure would have got another 20-30 votes on their side and made mays position untenable.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Scott_P said:
    Nightmare? Keep May, but swap cabinet and shadow cabinet. People would be fleeing to Venezuala within six months.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Freggles said:

    Seems like today would have been a better day to trigger the 48 letters

    That timing was down to Sir Graham.

    Nope, it was down to the incompetent quarterwits who utterly mismanaged the mailshot
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Anazina said:

    Nope, it was down to the incompetent quarterwits who utterly mismanaged the mailshot

    It would be entirely fitting if Owen Patterson was the letter that put them over the top and completely screwed their only shot.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    edited December 2018
    Mr. M, Ed Miliband was an atrocious Energy secretary. Grayling should remain at Transport.

    Edited extra bit: for those reading this without context, it's a discussion about a nightmare government, not a good one.
  • algarkirk said:

    Essential to Tony Blair's position on Today this morning is that the EU has to offer the UK something on FoM very like the offer they conspicuously did not make to David Cameron - which would have led to a very different outcome in 2016. While I am sure they should do exactly that, and hope they will, it would be hard to disguise in that scenario the absolute folly of events prior to Mrs May becoming PM.

    Who wants to disguise it?

    A large chunk of the blame for the current mess is attributable to the EU itself, but we are where we are and the voices of Blair, Clarke and other grown-ups need to be listened to if we are going to get out of it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    EUCO have given May an even more brutal rebuff than ?"

    image

    So even the EU affirm the backstop is seats
    Well yes, we could all have told her that. But this communique actually puts her into a worse position than she started in. A remarkable achievement, even for her.
    It doesn't actually
    She told her party she was going to get "legally binding assurance" about the backstop being undesirable for the EU too. They actually removed that text, and replaced it with text affirming the backstop is there to protect the single market.

    Not only has May not gotten what she promised on the backstop from her party or the DUP, she's actually gottent the EUCO to re-affirm their support for it!

    This has contrived to make May's impossible parliamentary arithmetic even harder, because she's now lied to her party and DUP (again) about the backstop, and suffered what is being widely reported as a "rebuff", "humiliation", "Salzburg 2.0" and my personal favorite, "diplomatic disaster".
    It does seem to have gone even worse than she could have imagined. MV today as no pretext was provided for delaying.
    Is it because they are as fed up with this shitshow as the rest of us?

    Realpolitik suggests that May is a lame duck and that there is simply no Deal which will get through Parliament. 118 “extremists” and 10 DUPers will put pay to that.

    The EU needed to tell May to stop fucking about and find a cross-party solution. She has all the tools necessary to do so (inc A50 extension, A50 revocation, referendum, making the customs union permanent etc).
    I'm sure they are sick of it but holing May below waterline isn't helpful - her ability to carry those other options had just been reduced because they've humiliated her, and it will increase the number of eff off sentiment. I get they want us to revoke A50 rather than take the deal, they want to keep that money so badly, but if someone has approached a cliff edge, even of their own accord, I don't know that insulting them and mocking then when they complain about their own problems helps draw them away from the edge, which they dont want either.

    Its not about May it's about the Commons. Even fewer Tories will now back the deal with no clear support for anything else and Labour only care about a GE. Mocking the one person who did want a deal and at least tried has made them feel better I'm sure but what does it achieve?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Mr. Walker, I agree with you. And with Mr. Meeks. I'm not an EU fan but I simply don't trust May, and I sympathise with them trying to negotiate with her.

    She should've known her deal was a non-starter. Maybe she did.

    That mistrust is widely shared, Morris.

    She says she will not allow No Deal, but then she said she wouldn't call a General Election. She also promised a Meaningful Vote. Can we trust her No Deal promise?

    Personally I wouldn't want to.
    She is blatant and cynical liar of Trump like dimensions. At various times she has said:

    Remaining in the EU is in the national interest.
    Leaving the EU is in the national interest.
    Not having a GE is in the national interest.
    Having a GE is in the national interest.
    Not having a referendum is in the national interest.

    Complete the sequence...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177

    Does anyone seriously think there aren't already draft Revocation Bills in desk draws all over Westminster ? If we are heading toward no deal in March one or two of them will be introduced and the Lords version will pass. Which means if the government wants no deal it will have to vote for no deal in the Commons by at least denying the Lords bill time and/or the SNP/PC/LD/Green Commons version. The CJEU ruling means the Commons is going to have to vote for no deal.

    ... and surely they won't.
    No. At which point they should just revoke then and there since a public vote on the EU deal or no deal would be pointless.
  • Scott_P said:

    The problem you have there is how do Parliament revoke when that cannot be done without the agreement if the Executive. Scott was contending the other night that the Executive can do it on their own. Now I think he is incorrect but what no one has argued is that Parliament can do it on their own without the agreement of the Executive.

    So how do you see us getting to a position where we can revoke as long as the Tories remain in control of the Executive?

    Dos the humble address, legal advice, contempt of Parliament episode demonstrate that Parliament can force the Executive to do things it doesn't want to?
    No because they did not involve primary legislation. A revocation needs primary legislation.
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    EUCO have given May an even more brutal rebuff than ?"

    image

    So even the EU affirm the backstop is seats
    Well yes, we could all have told her that. But this communique actually puts her into a worse position than she started in. A remarkable achievement, even for her.
    It doesn't actually
    She market.

    Not only has May not gotten what she promised on the backstop from her party or the DUP, she's actually gottent the EUCO to re-affirm their support for it!

    This has contrived to make May's impossible parliamentary arithmetic even harder, because she's now lied to her party and DUP (again) about the backstop, and suffered what is being widely reported as a "rebuff", "humiliation", "Salzburg 2.0" and my personal favorite, "diplomatic disaster".
    It does seem to have gone even worse than she could have imagined. MV today as no pretext was provided for delaying.
    Is it because they are as fed up with this shitshow as the rest of us?

    Realpolitik suggests that May is a lame duck and that there is simply no Deal which will get through Parliament. 118 “extremists” and 10 DUPers will put pay to that.

    The EU needed to tell May to stop fucking about and find a cross-party solution. She has all the tools necessary to do so (inc A50 extension, A50 revocation, referendum, making the customs union permanent etc).
    I'm sure they are sick of it but holing May below waterline isn't helpful - her ability to carry those other options had just been reduced because they've humiliated her, and it will increase the number of eff off sentiment. I get they want us to revoke A50 rather than take the deal, they want to keep that money so badly, but if someone has approached a cliff edge, even of their own accord, I don't know that insulting them and mocking then when they complain about their own problems helps draw them away from the edge, which they dont want either.

    Its not about May it's about the Commons. Even fewer Tories will now back the deal with no clear support for anything else and Labour only care about a GE. Mocking the one person who did want a deal and at least tried has made them feel better I'm sure but what does it achieve?

    May allowed herself to be humiliated - yet again - by making promises she had no hope of keeping. That is no-one's fault but her own. She was not mocked. She was just told what she surely must have known she would be told.

  • algarkirk said:

    Essential to Tony Blair's position on Today this morning is that the EU has to offer the UK something on FoM very like the offer they conspicuously did not make to David Cameron - which would have led to a very different outcome in 2016. While I am sure they should do exactly that, and hope they will, it would be hard to disguise in that scenario the absolute folly of events prior to Mrs May becoming PM.

    Who wants to disguise it?

    A large chunk of the blame for the current mess is attributable to the EU itself, but we are where we are and the voices of Blair, Clarke and other grown-ups need to be listened to if we are going to get out of it.

    It's also an EU largely composed of very different leaders - Merkel excepted. And she is on the way out.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    A revocation needs primary legislation.

    This was another point of debate the other night. I am not sure we are agreed on that point either
  • I notice May has had to publicly repeat her private assurance to the '22 that she won't lead the Tories into the next scheduled election. Always a moment when a PM says that publicly.
  • kle4 said:

    So much for helping 'facilitate' things. Couldn't even be arsed to fig leaf it. They really have given up on the deal have their eggs in the Remain basket if They wont even try some classic last minute EU fudge.

    What excuse does May have for not holding the MV now?
    I have a lot of sympathy with the EU on this. They're negotiating with a blancmange.
    True.
    They are now, but not when Cameron went to them.

    Juncker made a big mistake when deciding to play hardball with him.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    I notice May has had to publicly repeat her private assurance to the '22 that she won't lead the Tories into the next scheduled election. Always a moment when a PM says that publicly.

    They weren't exactly private.
  • Morning all,

    The May's EU meeting seems to have gone well.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177

    Mr. Punter, she's also promised no second referendum.

    I do find it interesting people seem to respect May for her dogged determination. It's not a view I share, but is worth noting.

    You can respect even an enemy for positive qualities, even where those qualities are misdirected. She has no choice but to change course again whether now or after Xmas no matter how dogged she is. She's the best friend of the EU in trying to find something and they don't care enough to even pretend to care about that any more, which you'd hope will close down labour and Tory unicorn believers at least.
  • Morning all,

    The May's EU meeting seems to have gone well.

    In a sense, it has. It has been tremendously clarifying.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,494
    There's a new backstop avoiding proposal over on Conhome. No idea if it's any good but surely May could have just taken that with her rather than being tongue tied when Mutti asked what she wanted.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871



    Nick, what we do not have at the moment is any notion that Labour will do all it can to prevent a No Deal Brexit. There is a majority in the House of Commons to prevent one, but it needs Labour to lead. Labour is not doing that. Everything else is detail right now.

    True. Owen Jones is a useful outrider for the leadership on this:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/14/labour-prepare-second-referendum-peoples-vote
    Its not the most convincing of articles, and the conclusion is not well grounded. And from the photo, Starmer doesn't appear to have got the memo about the dress code?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    kle4 said:

    EUCO have given May an even more brutal rebuff than at Salzburg.

    As predicted, the draft addendum has been salami sliced till there's nothing left. I think EUCO are trying to send May a message: "WHICH PART OF THE DEAL IS FINAL DO YOU NOT UNDERSTAND?"

    image

    I’m unsure what the EU reasoning for this is. There is a possibility that we will be asked in the near future whether we want to change our minds and associate with the EU again, I cannot fathom why they would think this would be a good idea.
    They believe frightening people is better than enticing people.
    Are you referring to Theresa with that?

    The EU have merely agreed with her redlines.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177

    kle4 said:

    So much for helping 'facilitate' things. Couldn't even be arsed to fig leaf it. They really have given up on the deal have their eggs in the Remain basket if They wont even try some classic last minute EU fudge.

    What excuse does May have for not holding the MV now?
    I have a lot of sympathy with the EU on this. They're negotiating with a blancmange.
    We have not been helpful. May is undercut by how divided the country is but she's not exactly helped.
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    EUCO have given May an even more brutal rebuff than ?"

    image

    So even the EU affirm the backstop is seats
    Well yes, we could all have told her that. But this communique actually puts her into a worse position than she started in. A remarkable achievement, even for her.
    It doesn't actually
    She market.

    Not only has May not gotten what she promised on the backstop from her party or the DUP, she's actually gottent the EUCO to re-affirm their support for it!

    This has contrived to make May's impossible parliamentary arithmetic even harder, because she's now lied to her party and DUP (again) about the backstop, and suffered what is being widely reported as a "rebuff", "humiliation", "Salzburg 2.0" and my personal favorite, "diplomatic disaster".
    It does seem to have gone even worse than she could have imagined. MV today as no pretext was provided for delaying.
    Is it because they are as fed up with this shitshow as the rest of us?

    Realpolitik suggests that May is a lame duck and that there is simply no Deal which will get through Parliament. 118 “extremists” and 10 DUPers will put pay to that.

    The EU needed to tell May to stop fucking about and find a cross-party solution. She has all the tools necessary to do so (inc A50 extension, A50 revocation, referendum, making the customs union permanent etc).
    I'm sure they are sick of it but holing May below waterline isn't helpful - her ability to carry th want either.

    Its not about May it's about the Commons. Even fewer Tories will now back the deal with no clear support for anything else and Labour only care about a GE. Mocking the one person who did want a deal and at least tried has made them feel better I'm sure but what does it achieve?

    May allowed herself to be humiliated - yet again - by making promises she had no hope of keeping. That is no-one's fault but her own. She was not mocked. She was just told what she surely must have known she would be told.

    Incidentally, why did she need to go in person - no internet in Downing Street? She doesn't know how to text?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,136
    edited December 2018
    Totally O/T but seems being a massive online retailer isn’t all sweetness and light...crazy tales of massive amounts of amazon returns, which then get sold to B2B who sell them to small Del Boys types, who then sell them through amazon!!!!...head spins..

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/13/returned-goods-are-a-problem-for-retailers-resellers-are-cashing-in.html
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    Not sure why the 200 Tories would regret their choice now. May had previously told them the deal was it and about that many were going to vote for it. She was right.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Scott_P said:
    PM: Hilary Benn
    Chancellor: Ed Balls
    Foreign Secretary: Nick Clegg
    Home Secretary: Ken Clarke
    Health: Norman Lamb
    Communities and Local Govt including devolution: Nicola Sturgeon
    Defense: Ruth Davidson
    Transport: Andy Burnham
    Environment: Michael Gove


    That would be awesome
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    No deal please. Apparently on the EU side they're fine and prepared. I'm sure it will not present France with any issues, it's not like they're a fractious bunch who take to the streets at the drop of a hat is it? And I'm sure they won't miss that £39bn either. Let's just prepare as best we can, and get on with it.

    the yellow bellied Tories will never have the balls to make that decision.
    Hopefully rightly because it would be bloody stupid!

    I think they are actually generally more scared about being seen to act against the result of the referendum, apart from the ERG faction who are effectively controlling the prospect of a no deal outcome (and largely mad).

    If we want to let the ERG dictate that, then parliament has gone collectively crazy. Probably a poetic denouement in some ways.
    They need to p*** or get off the pot, stop thinking of their personal interests. Either revoke A50 or get ready for a No Deal, it is painfully obvious and simple decision.
    PS: These arses get paid shedloads to make decisions, supposedly.
    Nandy and Kendall want to pass the decision of a referendum question to Citizens' Assemblies before they even.vote on holding a referendum
    Yes, what we need now is to introduce new, untested mechanisms into our convoluted constitutional processes. I get not wanting to he accountable but toughen the fuck up.
  • kle4 said:

    Not sure why the 200 Tories would regret their choice now. May had previously told them the deal was it and about that many were going to vote for it. She was right.

    The suggestion is of course nonsense. Indeed after JRM and others threats to the party since the vote I would expect she would have added to her support.
  • kle4 said:

    Not sure why the 200 Tories would regret their choice now. May had previously told them the deal was it and about that many were going to vote for it. She was right.

    It would have only taken another say 30 and her position wouldn’t have been safe and I bet there was at least that who thought usual EU game, May will get a bit of fudge when she goes at the end of the week.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    Mr. Punter, she's also promised no second referendum.

    I do find it interesting people seem to respect May for her dogged determination. It's not a view I share, but is worth noting.

    I think her determination and perseverance pays off in situations where she controls most of the pieces, or where it is simply a matter of grinding down an opponent. But as a control freak she cannot cope in situations where the solution relies upon others and demands compromise, co-operation and give-and-take. Unfortunately politics isn't a very good career match for such a character.
  • kle4 said:


    I'm sure they are sick of it but holing May below waterline isn't helpful - her ability to carry those other options had just been reduced because they've humiliated her, and it will increase the number of eff off sentiment. I get they want us to revoke A50 rather than take the deal, they want to keep that money so badly, but if someone has approached a cliff edge, even of their own accord, I don't know that insulting them and mocking then when they complain about their own problems helps draw them away from the edge, which they dont want either.

    Its not about May it's about the Commons. Even fewer Tories will now back the deal with no clear support for anything else and Labour only care about a GE. Mocking the one person who did want a deal and at least tried has made them feel better I'm sure but what does it achieve?

    The EU don't really need to achieve anything more now. They have achieved everything they need. May's deal is fine for the EU if not the UK and so would be our rescinding A50. They fear our exit on WTO terms as well they should but know that there is no chance of it happening thanks to 1. 5 out of 6 MPs being against it and that 2. May clearly sees it as the worst of all options.

    So they are free to insult and humiliate the UK PM as much as they wish.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    EUCO have given May an even more brutal rebuff than at Salzburg.

    As predicted, the draft addendum has been salami sliced till there's nothing left. I think EUCO are trying to send May a message: "WHICH PART OF THE DEAL IS FINAL DO YOU NOT UNDERSTAND?"

    image

    I’m unsure what the EU reasoning for this is. There is a possibility that we will be asked in the near future whether we want to change our minds and associate with the EU again, I cannot fathom why they would think this would be a good idea.
    They believe frightening people is better than enticing people.
    Are you referring to Theresa with that?

    The EU have merely agreed with her redlines.
    They didn't even try useful diplomatic fudge they do it too.
  • kle4 said:


    I'm sure they are sick of it but holing May below waterline isn't helpful - her ability to carry those other options had just been reduced because they've humiliated her, and it will increase the number of eff off sentiment. I get they want us to revoke A50 rather than take the deal, they want to keep that money so badly, but if someone has approached a cliff edge, even of their own accord, I don't know that insulting them and mocking then when they complain about their own problems helps draw them away from the edge, which they dont want either.

    Its not about May it's about the Commons. Even fewer Tories will now back the deal with no clear support for anything else and Labour only care about a GE. Mocking the one person who did want a deal and at least tried has made them feel better I'm sure but what does it achieve?

    The EU don't really need to achieve anything more now. They have achieved everything they need. May's deal is fine for the EU if not the UK and so would be our rescinding A50. They fear our exit on WTO terms as well they should but know that there is no chance of it happening thanks to 1. 5 out of 6 MPs being against it and that 2. May clearly sees it as the worst of all options.

    So they are free to insult and humiliate the UK PM as much as they wish.

    I agree with your comments but the EU are going to have one very difficult member if the UK remains
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    EUCO have given May an even more brutal rebuff than ?"

    image

    So even the EU affirm the backstop is seats
    Well yes, we could all have told her that. But this communique actually puts her into a worse position than she started in. A remarkable achievement, even for her.
    It doesn't actually
    She market.

    Not only has May not gotten what she promised on the backstop from her party or the DUP, she's actually gottent the EUCO to re-affirm their support for it!

    This has contrived to make May's impossible parliamentary arithmetic even harder, because she's now lied to her party and DUP (again) about the backstop, and suffered what is being widely reported as a "rebuff", "humiliation", "Salzburg 2.0" and my personal favorite, "diplomatic disaster".
    It does seem to have gone even worse than she could have imagined. MV today as no pretext was provided for delaying.
    Is it because they are as fed up with this shitshow as the rest of us?

    Realpolitik suggests that May is a lame duck and that there is simply no Deal which will get through Parliament. 118 “extremists” and 10 DUPers will put pay to that.

    The EU needed to tell May to stop fucking about and find a cross-party solution. She has all the tools necessary to do so (inc A50 extension, A50 revocation, referendum, making the customs union permanent etc).
    I'm sure they are sick of it but holing May below waterline isn't helpful - her ability to carry th want either.

    Its not about May it's about the Commons. Even fewer Tories will now back the deal with no clear support for anything else and Labour only care about a GE. Mocking the one person who did want a deal and at least tried has made them feel better I'm sure but what does it achieve?

    May allowed herself to be humiliated - yet again - by making promises she had no hope of keeping. That is no-one's fault but her own. She was not mocked. She was just told what she surely must have known she would be told.

    Incidentally, why did she need to go in person - no internet in Downing Street? She doesn't know how to text?
    I can imagine how the WhatsApp group would have gone.

    - Can we have a chat about the backstop
    - No
    - Please
    - No
    - we aren’t renegotiating
    - what about some sort of clarification
    - no
    - please
    - no
    - what exactly do you want clarified
    - stuff
    ....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    edited December 2018

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    EUCO have given May an even more brutal rebuff than ?"

    image

    So even the EU affirm the backstop is seats
    Well yes, we could all have told her that. But this communique actually puts her into a worse position than she started in. A remarkable achievement, even for her.
    It doesn't actually


    This has contrived to make May's impossible parliamentary arithmetic even harder, because she's now lied to her party and DUP (again) about the backstop, and suffered what is being widely reported as a "rebuff", "humiliation", "Salzburg 2.0" and my personal favorite, "diplomatic disaster".
    It does seem to have gone even worse than she could have imagined. MV today as no pretext was provided for delaying.
    Is it because they are as fed up with this shitshow as the rest of us?

    Realpolitik suggests that May is a lame duck and that there is simply no Deal which will get through Parliament. 118 “extremists” and 10 DUPers will put pay to that.

    The EU needed to tell May to stop fucking about and find a cross-party solution. She has all the tools necessary to do so (inc A50 extension, A50 revocation, referendum, making the customs union permanent etc).
    I'm sure they are sick of it but holing May below waterline isn't helpful - her ability to carry those other options had just been reduced because they've humiliated her, and away from the edge, which they dont want either.

    Its not about I'm sure but what does it achieve?

    May allowed herself to be humiliated - yet again - by making promises she had no hope of keeping. That is no-one's fault but her own. She was not mocked. She was just told what she surely must have known she would be told.

    There are different ways of being told things. Blunt diplomatic language is a choice they made rather than any traditional EU fudge. What does thatachieve here? May already knew they didn't want to renegotiate it's parliament that needs convincing, does this help that?

    Diplomats don't just get sick of others' shit and get blunt they do it to achieve an outcome, I just am not sure which outcome they thought this helped, since May is only a very small part off The problem.

    And the BBC says her performance was labelled bad. Only the EU saw the performance that personal judgement must come from them.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited December 2018

    kle4 said:


    I'm sure they are sick of it but holing May below waterline isn't helpful - her ability to carry those other options had just been reduced because they've humiliated her, and it will increase the number of eff off sentiment. I get they want us to revoke A50 rather than take the deal, they want to keep that money so badly, but if someone has approached a cliff edge, even of their own accord, I don't know that insulting them and mocking then when they complain about their own problems helps draw them away from the edge, which they dont want either.

    Its not about May it's about the Commons. Even fewer Tories will now back the deal with no clear support for anything else and Labour only care about a GE. Mocking the one person who did want a deal and at least tried has made them feel better I'm sure but what does it achieve?

    The EU don't really need to achieve anything more now. They have achieved everything they need. May's deal is fine for the EU if not the UK and so would be our rescinding A50. They fear our exit on WTO terms as well they should but know that there is no chance of it happening thanks to 1. 5 out of 6 MPs being against it and that 2. May clearly sees it as the worst of all options.

    So they are free to insult and humiliate the UK PM as much as they wish.

    I agree with your comments but the EU are going to have one very difficult member if the UK remains
    The EU is a Eurozone club now. The UK can sit at the back of the bus with the Visigrad countries. If you look at the new rules for QMV, it's fecking hard for a non-EZ country to summon a blocking minority and EZ countries make up more than 55% of the votes.

    Under the current rules QMV is also contextual, which is fair enough - the UK gets no votes on Euro or Schengen measures.

    'Influence' is a hollow joke whether in or out.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202

    kle4 said:


    I'm sure they are sick of it but holing May below waterline isn't helpful - her ability to carry those other options had just been reduced because they've humiliated her, and it will increase the number of eff off sentiment. I get they want us to revoke A50 rather than take the deal, they want to keep that money so badly, but if someone has approached a cliff edge, even of their own accord, I don't know that insulting them and mocking then when they complain about their own problems helps draw them away from the edge, which they dont want either.

    Its not about May it's about the Commons. Even fewer Tories will now back the deal with no clear support for anything else and Labour only care about a GE. Mocking the one person who did want a deal and at least tried has made them feel better I'm sure but what does it achieve?

    The EU don't really need to achieve anything more now. They have achieved everything they need. May's deal is fine for the EU if not the UK and so would be our rescinding A50. They fear our exit on WTO terms as well they should but know that there is no chance of it happening thanks to 1. 5 out of 6 MPs being against it and that 2. May clearly sees it as the worst of all options.

    So they are free to insult and humiliate the UK PM as much as they wish.
    May's Deal is fine for the UK as it ends free movement and avoids permanent Customs Union unlike what will happen under PM Corbyn.

    We should fear WTO terms far more than the EU as it would hugely damage our economy and more so than theirs as 44% of UK exports go to the EU but only 16% of EU exports to the UK
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Freggles said:

    Scott_P said:
    PM: Hilary Benn
    Chancellor: Ed Balls
    Foreign Secretary: Nick Clegg
    Home Secretary: Ken Clarke
    Health: Norman Lamb
    Communities and Local Govt including devolution: Nicola Sturgeon
    Defense: Ruth Davidson
    Transport: Andy Burnham
    Environment: Michael Gove


    That would be awesome
    I'd prefer Darling to Balls, and swap Clegg, Clarke and Sturgeon about, but that's a solid lineup.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    IanB2 said:

    Mr. Punter, she's also promised no second referendum.

    I do find it interesting people seem to respect May for her dogged determination. It's not a view I share, but is worth noting.

    I think her determination and perseverance pays off in situations where she controls most of the pieces, or where it is simply a matter of grinding down an opponent. But as a control freak she cannot cope in situations where the solution relies upon others and demands compromise, co-operation and give-and-take. Unfortunately politics isn't a very good career match for such a character.
    The combination of May being a control freak, combined with being a poor listener makes her particularly unsuited to being a negotiator. She has totally failed, yet her party decided to keep her on the rack rather than try anything else.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202

    HYUFD said:

    200 Tory MPs now regretting they didn’t boot May out when they had the chance, after the EU give her the usual two fingered salute over the backstop. What a shower. That’s any chance of Toryunity beingrestored gine, any chance of rebuilding bridges with the DUP gone, any chance of fending off a VNOC gine. They deserve a Corbyn Gov. Just a shame they are going to inflict Calamity Corbyn on the rest of us.

    What price a General Election in March. Still, at least Brenda in Bristol didn’t have one this year. She must be getting withdrawal symptoms.

    A no deal Brexit is looking more likely every day and every day this pathetic Giv refuses to prepare properly for it. The electorate will never forgive them. The Tory Party must surely split now if there is to be sane party in British politics. Let the muppets like Soubry, Allen Morgan go off to the LibDems or join Umnunna, Cooper, Kendall is a new SDP.

    It is No Deal Brexit that opens the door to Corbyn and the EU have confirmed again they aim to have have completed an agreement by the end of 2020 so the backstop is not triggered.

    However of cause if Corbyn does get it No Deal will not last long, Corbyn will agree to permanent Customs Union as per Labour policy and most likely permanent Customs Union too as the SNP will demand in return for confidence and supply. So by rejecting May's Deal hardliners like you will just end up with BINO in the end ( though the Tories may go on a more hard line position in opposition under Boris)
    It’s May and her incompetence making a Corbyn Gov more likely. Neither May’s word nor that of the EU has been good for anything thus far so why would that change. May has surrendered in every issue she is so weak and inept. Once we’ve parted with our £ 39 bn and are in the Withdrawal agreement we’re trapped. It’s either agree to EU dictated terms on trade of Exeter the backstop in perpetuity. That shouldn’t appeal to anyone - Leaver or Remainer.

    A permanent customs union is worthless. Might as well stay in the EU and revoke Article 50 as do that and Corbyn makes up policy on the hoof. Starmer might want a permanent customs union but that doesn’t make it Labour policy. Corbyn and McDonnell are so shallow they’ll just say anything g to get an election and power. No one in their right minds is going to trust them.
    Corbyn will give you permanent Customs Union and you will deserve it through your refusal to compromise
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    IanB2 said:

    Freggles said:

    Scott_P said:
    PM: Hilary Benn
    Chancellor: Ed Balls
    Foreign Secretary: Nick Clegg
    Home Secretary: Ken Clarke
    Health: Norman Lamb
    Communities and Local Govt including devolution: Nicola Sturgeon
    Defense: Ruth Davidson
    Transport: Andy Burnham
    Environment: Michael Gove


    That would be awesome
    I'd prefer Darling to Balls, and swap Clegg, Clarke and Sturgeon about, but that's a solid lineup.
    I quite like Darling, but in a pure fantasy world, I'd like to get Martin Lewis into the Treasury.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    edited December 2018
    kle4 said:

    Not sure why the 200 Tories would regret their choice now. May had previously told them the deal was it and about that many were going to vote for it. She was right.

    She only got 200 because of the payroll vote and by promising to step down as leader. I don’t think changing or not changing the backstop had much to do with it. That was more about trying to get something to persuade MPs to approve her deal because unless the backstop changes she’ll lose the vote on her deal and lose the VNOC that will surely follow as the DUP will side with Labour. Tories who supported her will then find themselves in a GE with May still party leader which she has promised them she wouldn’t be. She and they will have no chance of changing anything then but will see themselves kicked out of office. Plenty of cause for regret I would have thought.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202

    kle4 said:

    Not sure why the 200 Tories would regret their choice now. May had previously told them the deal was it and about that many were going to vote for it. She was right.

    She only got 200 because of the payroll vote and by promising to step down as leader. I don’t think changing or not changing the backstop had much to do with it. That was more about trying to get something to persuade MPs to approve her deal because unless the backstop changes she’ll lose the vote on her deal and lose the VNOC that will surely follow as the DUP will side with Labour. Tories who supported her will then find themselves in a GE with May still party leader which she has promised them she wouldn’t be. She and they will have no chance then.
    May still leads Corbyn as preferred PM and still the Tories largely tied with Labour in the polls
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    edited December 2018

    kle4 said:


    I'm sure they are sick of it but holing May below waterline isn't helpful - her ability to carry those other options had just been reduced because they've humiliated her, and it will increase the number of eff off sentiment. I get they want us to revoke A50 rather than take the deal, they want to keep that money so badly, but if someone has approached a cliff edge, even of their own accord, I don't know that insulting them and mocking then when they complain about their own problems helps draw them away from the edge, which they dont want either.

    Its not about May it's about the Commons. Even fewer Tories will now back the deal with no clear support for anything else and Labour only care about a GE. Mocking the one person who did want a deal and at least tried has made them feel better I'm sure but what does it achieve?

    The EU don't really need to achieve anything more now. They have achieved everything they need. May's deal is fine for the EU if not the UK and so would be our rescinding A50. They fear our exit on WTO terms as well they should but know that there is no chance of it happening thanks to 1. 5 out of 6 MPs being against it and that 2. May clearly sees it as the worst of all options.

    So they are free to insult and humiliate the UK PM as much as they wish.

    I agree with your comments but the EU are going to have one very difficult member if the UK remains
    Good, lets remain, and try to bugger things up from the inside and make ourselves as difficult as possible
  • Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Mr. Punter, she's also promised no second referendum.

    I do find it interesting people seem to respect May for her dogged determination. It's not a view I share, but is worth noting.

    I think her determination and perseverance pays off in situations where she controls most of the pieces, or where it is simply a matter of grinding down an opponent. But as a control freak she cannot cope in situations where the solution relies upon others and demands compromise, co-operation and give-and-take. Unfortunately politics isn't a very good career match for such a character.
    The combination of May being a control freak, combined with being a poor listener makes her particularly unsuited to being a negotiator. She has totally failed, yet her party decided to keep her on the rack rather than try anything else.
    With Johnson and Rees Mogg threatening economic armageddon it was the right decision
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Freggles said:

    Scott_P said:
    PM: Hilary Benn
    Chancellor: Ed Balls
    Foreign Secretary: Nick Clegg
    Home Secretary: Ken Clarke
    Health: Norman Lamb
    Communities and Local Govt including devolution: Nicola Sturgeon
    Defense: Ruth Davidson
    Transport: Andy Burnham
    Environment: Michael Gove


    That would be awesome
    I'd prefer Darling to Balls, and swap Clegg, Clarke and Sturgeon about, but that's a solid lineup.
    I quite like Darling, but in a pure fantasy world, I'd like to get Martin Lewis into the Treasury.
    Doubly awesome.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Mr. Punter, she's also promised no second referendum.

    I do find it interesting people seem to respect May for her dogged determination. It's not a view I share, but is worth noting.

    I think her determination and perseverance pays off in situations where she controls most of the pieces, or where it is simply a matter of grinding down an opponent. But as a control freak she cannot cope in situations where the solution relies upon others and demands compromise, co-operation and give-and-take. Unfortunately politics isn't a very good career match for such a character.
    The combination of May being a control freak, combined with being a poor listener makes her particularly unsuited to being a negotiator. She has totally failed, yet her party decided to keep her on the rack rather than try anything else.
    All the alternatives wanted to renegotiate and the EU doesn't want to. A better negotiator would only help if they took over years ago.

    The leader now seems kind of irrelevant. They need to choose. No deal or remain. (Labour have deal or remain to pick from and sure as he'll won't deal, so that's off the table)
  • HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Not sure why the 200 Tories would regret their choice now. May had previously told them the deal was it and about that many were going to vote for it. She was right.

    She only got 200 because of the payroll vote and by promising to step down as leader. I don’t think changing or not changing the backstop had much to do with it. That was more about trying to get something to persuade MPs to approve her deal because unless the backstop changes she’ll lose the vote on her deal and lose the VNOC that will surely follow as the DUP will side with Labour. Tories who supported her will then find themselves in a GE with May still party leader which she has promised them she wouldn’t be. She and they will have no chance then.
    May still leads Corbyn as preferred PM and still the Tories largely tied with Labour in the polls
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Not sure why the 200 Tories would regret their choice now. May had previously told them the deal was it and about that many were going to vote for it. She was right.

    She only got 200 because of the payroll vote and by promising to step down as leader. I don’t think changing or not changing the backstop had much to do with it. That was more about trying to get something to persuade MPs to approve her deal because unless the backstop changes she’ll lose the vote on her deal and lose the VNOC that will surely follow as the DUP will side with Labour. Tories who supported her will then find themselves in a GE with May still party leader which she has promised them she wouldn’t be. She and they will have no chance then.
    May still leads Corbyn as preferred PM and still the Tories largely tied with Labour in the polls
    That is true, HUYFD, but do you think the polls mean much at the moment?

    We're in the middle of a national crisis. When it is resolved, things are likely to look very different.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    edited December 2018
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Mr. Punter, she's also promised no second referendum.

    I do find it interesting people seem to respect May for her dogged determination. It's not a view I share, but is worth noting.

    I think her determination and perseverance pays off in situations where she controls most of the pieces, or where it is simply a matter of grinding down an opponent. But as a control freak she cannot cope in situations where the solution relies upon others and demands compromise, co-operation and give-and-take. Unfortunately politics isn't a very good career match for such a character.
    The combination of May being a control freak, combined with being a poor listener makes her particularly unsuited to being a negotiator. She has totally failed, yet her party decided to keep her on the rack rather than try anything else.
    tbf this would be the worst possible time to make a switch. There aren't any risk-free alternatives. And the state of their party is such that a contest could easily light the touchpaper.


    Edit/The negotiation bit, in terms of the contents of the deal, hasn't gone all that badly. Where she has failed is in strategy and presentation, specifically in not working out how the deal would be delivered and working out how to present it and build the necessary consensus and buy-in.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Not sure why the 200 Tories would regret their choice now. May had previously told them the deal was it and about that many were going to vote for it. She was right.

    She only got 200 because of the payroll vote and by promising to step down as leader. I don’t think changing or not changing the backstop had much to do with it. That was more about trying to get something to persuade MPs to approve her deal because unless the backstop changes she’ll lose the vote on her deal and lose the VNOC that will surely follow as the DUP will side with Labour. Tories who supported her will then find themselves in a GE with May still party leader which she has promised them she wouldn’t be. She and they will have no chance then.
    May still leads Corbyn as preferred PM and still the Tories largely tied with Labour in the polls
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Not sure why the 200 Tories would regret their choice now. May had previously told them the deal was it and about that many were going to vote for it. She was right.

    She only got 200 because of the payroll vote and by promising to step down as leader. I don’t think changing or not changing the backstop had much to do with it. That was more about trying to get something to persuade MPs to approve her deal because unless the backstop changes she’ll lose the vote on her deal and lose the VNOC that will surely follow as the DUP will side with Labour. Tories who supported her will then find themselves in a GE with May still party leader which she has promised them she wouldn’t be. She and they will have no chance then.
    May still leads Corbyn as preferred PM and still the Tories largely tied with Labour in the polls
    That is true, HUYFD, but do you think the polls mean much at the moment?
    QTWTAIY. For him anyway.
  • IanB2 said:

    Freggles said:

    Scott_P said:
    PM: Hilary Benn
    Chancellor: Ed Balls
    Foreign Secretary: Nick Clegg
    Home Secretary: Ken Clarke
    Health: Norman Lamb
    Communities and Local Govt including devolution: Nicola Sturgeon
    Defense: Ruth Davidson
    Transport: Andy Burnham
    Environment: Michael Gove


    That would be awesome
    I'd prefer Darling to Balls, and swap Clegg, Clarke and Sturgeon about, but that's a solid lineup.
    The way to do the emergency national unity government would be to turn all the select committee chairs directly into ministers.

    This works uniquely well right now because, what with both the main parties being run by total and utter arsehats, all the competent people are sitting things out on the committees rather than serving on their respective front benches.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    200 Tory MPs now regretting they didn’t boot May out when they had the chance, after the EU give her the usual two fingered salute over the backstop. What a shower. That’s any chance of Toryunity beingrestored gine, any chance of rebuilding bridges with the DUP gone, any chance of fending off a VNOC gine. They deserve a Corbyn Gov. Just a shame they are going to inflict Calamity Corbyn on the rest of us.

    What price a General Election in March. Still, at least Brenda in Bristol didn’t have one this year. She must be getting withdrawal symptoms.

    A no deal Brexit is looking more likely every day and every day this pathetic Giv refuses to prepare properly for it. The electorate will never forgive them. The Tory Party must surely split now if there is to be sane party in British politics. Let the muppets like Soubry, Allen Morgan go off to the LibDems or join Umnunna, Cooper, Kendall is a new SDP.

    However of cause if Corbyn does get it No Deal will not last long, Corbyn will agree to permanent Customs Union as per Labour policy and most likely permanent Customs Union too as the SNP will demand in return for confidence and supply. So by rejecting May's Deal hardliners like you will just end up with BINO in the end ( though the Tories may go on a more hard line position in opposition under Boris)
    It’s May and her incompetence making a Corbyn Gov more likely. Neither May’s word nor that of the EU has been good for anything thus far so why would that change. May has surrendered in every issue she is so weak and inept. Once we’ve parted with our £ 39 bn and are in the Withdrawal agreement we’re trapped. It’s either agree to EU dictated terms on trade of Exeter the backstop in perpetuity. That shouldn’t appeal to anyone - Leaver or Remainer.

    A permanent customs union is worthless. Might as well stay in the EU and revoke Article 50 as do that and Corbyn makes up policy on the hoof. Starmer might want a permanent customs union but that doesn’t make it Labour policy. Corbyn and McDonnell are so shallow they’ll just say anything g to get an election and power. No one in their right minds is going to trust them.
    Corbyn will give you permanent Customs Union and you will deserve it through your refusal to compromise
    Shouldnt have supported such a lame duck leader and a lame duck policy and been so contemptuous of 17.4m voters then should you. Corbyn will give the whole of Britain plenty of cause to regret. If you think that is a price worth paying to spit in the eye of Leavers, you’ll get your wish. Personally, I think you’ll regret it but, hey, maybe you are a closet socialist.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293

    kle4 said:


    I'm sure they are sick of it but holing May below waterline isn't helpful - her ability to carry those other options had just been reduced because they've humiliated her, and it will increase the number of eff off sentiment. I get they want us to revoke A50 rather than take the deal, they want to keep that money so badly, but if someone has approached a cliff edge, even of their own accord, I don't know that insulting them and mocking then when they complain about their own problems helps draw them away from the edge, which they dont want either.

    Its not about May it's about the Commons. Even fewer Tories will now back the deal with no clear support for anything else and Labour only care about a GE. Mocking the one person who did want a deal and at least tried has made them feel better I'm sure but what does it achieve?

    The EU don't really need to achieve anything more now. They have achieved everything they need. May's deal is fine for the EU if not the UK and so would be our rescinding A50. They fear our exit on WTO terms as well they should but know that there is no chance of it happening thanks to 1. 5 out of 6 MPs being against it and that 2. May clearly sees it as the worst of all options.

    So they are free to insult and humiliate the UK PM as much as they wish.

    I agree with your comments but the EU are going to have one very difficult member if the UK remains
    Good, lets remain, and try to bugger things up from the inside and make ourselves as difficult as possible
    Who's going to do that? If we remain the political class will see it as the green light to join the Euro, EU army etc. That's why people took their chance to vote to leave in 2016 in the first place.
  • Philip Collins has a cunning plan for May to do a deal with Lab moderate remainers for a 2nd vote: her deal vs remain.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/163188a2-fef4-11e8-92e0-7fb8092617eb

    Very much doubt May has it in her to be so bold. And he fails to say what happens if her deal wins and then HoC again doesn't pass it. I suppose the referendum could be made binding - can that be done?
  • HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Not sure why the 200 Tories would regret their choice now. May had previously told them the deal was it and about that many were going to vote for it. She was right.

    She only got 200 because of the payroll vote and by promising to step down as leader. I don’t think changing or not changing the backstop had much to do with it. That was more about trying to get something to persuade MPs to approve her deal because unless the backstop changes she’ll lose the vote on her deal and lose the VNOC that will surely follow as the DUP will side with Labour. Tories who supported her will then find themselves in a GE with May still party leader which she has promised them she wouldn’t be. She and they will have no chance then.
    May still leads Corbyn as preferred PM and still the Tories largely tied with Labour in the polls
    Those will be the same polls that May lost a 20% lead in during the last election will they. Worth a lot at this stage to be parity with a party racked with problems on antisemitism and misogyny.
  • I saw an extract of Angela Rayner ruling out a second referendum on question time last night. I was surprised how firmly she was against it.

    So when will the labour split occur
  • IanB2 said:

    Freggles said:

    Scott_P said:
    PM: Hilary Benn
    Chancellor: Ed Balls
    Foreign Secretary: Nick Clegg
    Home Secretary: Ken Clarke
    Health: Norman Lamb
    Communities and Local Govt including devolution: Nicola Sturgeon
    Defense: Ruth Davidson
    Transport: Andy Burnham
    Environment: Michael Gove


    That would be awesome
    I'd prefer Darling to Balls, and swap Clegg, Clarke and Sturgeon about, but that's a solid lineup.
    I particularly like Davidson at Defence. Nobody would mess with her!

    By the way, I am a dedicated Gove-hater, but my son who is a lecturer in agriculture and no friend of the Tories has dealt directly with him and was very impressed. So he's in. :-)
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    kle4 said:


    I'm sure they are sick of it but holing May below waterline isn't helpful - her ability to carry those other options had just been reduced because they've humiliated her, and it will increase the number of eff off sentiment. I get they want us to revoke A50 rather than take the deal, they want to keep that money so badly, but if someone has approached a cliff edge, even of their own accord, I don't know that insulting them and mocking then when they complain about their own problems helps draw them away from the edge, which they dont want either.

    Its not about May it's about the Commons. Even fewer Tories will now back the deal with no clear support for anything else and Labour only care about a GE. Mocking the one person who did want a deal and at least tried has made them feel better I'm sure but what does it achieve?

    The EU don't really need to achieve anything more now. They have achieved everything they need. May's deal is fine for the EU if not the UK and so would be our rescinding A50. They fear our exit on WTO terms as well they should but know that there is no chance of it happening thanks to 1. 5 out of 6 MPs being against it and that 2. May clearly sees it as the worst of all options.

    So they are free to insult and humiliate the UK PM as much as they wish.

    I agree with your comments but the EU are going to have one very difficult member if the UK remains
    Only while this disgusting wreck of a government staggers on. The imminent and inevitable Labour government will have a more cordial and constructive relationship with the EU.
  • Philip Collins has a cunning plan for May to do a deal with Lab moderate remainers for a 2nd vote: her deal vs remain.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/163188a2-fef4-11e8-92e0-7fb8092617eb

    Very much doubt May has it in her to be so bold. And he fails to say what happens if her deal wins and then HoC again doesn't pass it. I suppose the referendum could be made binding - can that be done?

    It would leave her very vulnerable after the referendum vote had been passed. But given she has already accepted that she is going soon anyway, she might as well accept this as her quietus rather than hunkering down in a corner waiting to be overwhelmed.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    kle4 said:


    I'm sure they are sick of it but holing May below waterline isn't helpful - her ability to carry those other options had just been reduced because they've humiliated her, and it will increase the number of eff off sentiment. I get they want us to revoke A50 rather than take the deal, they want to keep that money so badly, but if someone has approached a cliff edge, even of their own accord, I don't know that insulting them and mocking then when they complain about their own problems helps draw them away from the edge, which they dont want either.

    Its not about May it's about the Commons. Even fewer Tories will now back the deal with no clear support for anything else and Labour only care about a GE. Mocking the one person who did want a deal and at least tried has made them feel better I'm sure but what does it achieve?

    The EU don't really need to achieve anything more now. They have achieved everything they need. May's deal is fine for the EU if not the UK and so would be our rescinding A50. They fear our exit on WTO terms as well they should but know that there is no chance of it happening thanks to 1. 5 out of 6 MPs being against it and that 2. May clearly sees it as the worst of all options.

    So they are free to insult and humiliate the UK PM as much as they wish.

    I agree with your comments but the EU are going to have one very difficult member if the UK remains
    Only while this disgusting wreck of a government staggers on. The imminent and inevitable Labour government will have a more cordial and constructive relationship with the EU.
    With luck, both sides will have learned from this scorching experience. It could lead to a far better relationship.

    Could.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited December 2018

    Philip Collins has a cunning plan for May to do a deal with Lab moderate remainers for a 2nd vote: her deal vs remain.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/163188a2-fef4-11e8-92e0-7fb8092617eb

    Very much doubt May has it in her to be so bold. And he fails to say what happens if her deal wins and then HoC again doesn't pass it. I suppose the referendum could be made binding - can that be done?

    Why is there the assumption that the second referendum doesn't have WTO on the ballot paper?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177

    Philip Collins has a cunning plan for May to do a deal with Lab moderate remainers for a 2nd vote: her deal vs remain.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/163188a2-fef4-11e8-92e0-7fb8092617eb

    Very much doubt May has it in her to be so bold. And he fails to say what happens if her deal wins and then HoC again doesn't pass it. I suppose the referendum could be made binding - can that be done?

    Seemingly yes, though they could just refuse to pass necessary other legislation.

    I think May has to do it. The big firsr issue is do her cabinet resign if she tries. She can't be removed as such but she won't have the votes even with labour if she is all alone. Then would no dealers split. Then would a GE occur.

    Unlike her changing her mind on a GE this would actually be a reasonable change in response to circumstance. But a farce without no deal as an option.
  • Mr. Punter, not sure if you were here, but one PBer (I forget who, alas), described Gove's role as being to un-fuck the departments the likes of Grayling has previously run :p
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    GIN1138 said:

    Philip Collins has a cunning plan for May to do a deal with Lab moderate remainers for a 2nd vote: her deal vs remain.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/163188a2-fef4-11e8-92e0-7fb8092617eb

    Very much doubt May has it in her to be so bold. And he fails to say what happens if her deal wins and then HoC again doesn't pass it. I suppose the referendum could be made binding - can that be done?

    Why is there the assumption that the second referendum doesn't have WTO on the ballot paper?
    Because no sane politician or sensible government would or could afford to put it forward.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    kle4 said:


    I'm sure they are sick of it but holing May below waterline isn't helpful - her ability to carry those other options had just been reduced because they've humiliated her, and it will increase the number of eff off sentiment. I get they want us to revoke A50 rather than take the deal, they want to keep that money so badly, but if someone has approached a cliff edge, even of their own accord, I don't know that insulting them and mocking then when they complain about their own problems helps draw them away from the edge, which they dont want either.

    Its not about May it's about the Commons. Even fewer Tories will now back the deal with no clear support for anything else and Labour only care about a GE. Mocking the one person who did want a deal and at least tried has made them feel better I'm sure but what does it achieve?

    The EU don't really need to achieve anything more now. They have achieved everything they need. May's deal is fine for the EU if not the UK and so would be our rescinding A50. They fear our exit on WTO terms as well they should but know that there is no chance of it happening thanks to 1. 5 out of 6 MPs being against it and that 2. May clearly sees it as the worst of all options.

    So they are free to insult and humiliate the UK PM as much as they wish.

    I agree with your comments but the EU are going to have one very difficult member if the UK remains
    Only while this disgusting wreck of a government staggers on. The imminent and inevitable Labour government will have a more cordial and constructive relationship with the EU.
    Constructive and cordial - as they do with the Jewish community and their women members you mean.
  • Commentators seem to imply the EU hardened their position due to the state of UK politics and that they are unable to know what would pass the HOC
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    Roger said:

    Tony Blair is the most clear thinking politician we have ever had. Even now he makes the rest sound self serving confused or stupid. For an explanation which makes sense switch onto radio 4 and listen to his whole interview

    This mess is at least partly his fault for not giving us the referendum on the constitution he promised, and for not pushing the euro which he believed in (probably still does, too).
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    Dura_Ace said:

    kle4 said:


    I'm sure they are sick of it but holing May below waterline isn't helpful - her ability to carry those other options had just been reduced because they've humiliated her, and it will increase the number of eff off sentiment. I get they want us to revoke A50 rather than take the deal, they want to keep that money so badly, but if someone has approached a cliff edge, even of their own accord, I don't know that insulting them and mocking then when they complain about their own problems helps draw them away from the edge, which they dont want either.

    Its not about May it's about the Commons. Even fewer Tories will now back the deal with no clear support for anything else and Labour only care about a GE. Mocking the one person who did want a deal and at least tried has made them feel better I'm sure but what does it achieve?

    The EU don't really need to achieve anything more now. They have achieved everything they need. May's deal is fine for the EU if not the UK and so would be our rescinding A50. They fear our exit on WTO terms as well they should but know that there is no chance of it happening thanks to 1. 5 out of 6 MPs being against it and that 2. May clearly sees it as the worst of all options.

    So they are free to insult and humiliate the UK PM as much as they wish.

    I agree with your comments but the EU are going to have one very difficult member if the UK remains
    Only while this disgusting wreck of a government staggers on. The imminent and inevitable Labour government will have a more cordial and constructive relationship with the EU.
    Yes, I think that correct. We would only be difficult while the Tories are in power, and that would not be for long after an A50 withdrawal.

    The only way for the Tories to survive is for May's Deal to pass, and that requires a #peoplesvote, as Parliament is not willing.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited December 2018
    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Philip Collins has a cunning plan for May to do a deal with Lab moderate remainers for a 2nd vote: her deal vs remain.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/163188a2-fef4-11e8-92e0-7fb8092617eb

    Very much doubt May has it in her to be so bold. And he fails to say what happens if her deal wins and then HoC again doesn't pass it. I suppose the referendum could be made binding - can that be done?

    Why is there the assumption that the second referendum doesn't have WTO on the ballot paper?
    Because no sane politician or sensible government would or could afford to put it forward.
    But Leave Means Leave (or some other group) will take the electoral commission to court as soon as the question is revealed without WTO Brexit on the ballot?

    What if the "enemies of the people" side with the people and say WTO must be on the ballot?

    Would't that be delicious. :D
  • Mr. Punter, not sure if you were here, but one PBer (I forget who, alas), described Gove's role as being to un-fuck the departments the likes of Grayling has previously run :p

    Lol! No I didn't catch that.

    Number One Son tends to be apolitical and calls things straight, so it was intriguing he spoke so highly of Gove as a Minister, especially as he thinks Brexit is Bonkers and Gove of course is....
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,159
    edited December 2018
    Commentators confirm the ERG position that if we leave on no deal in March the EU will be forced into erecting a border and they have a real blind spot on this
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293

    Commentators confirm the ERG position that if we leave on no deal in March the EU will be forced into erecting a border and they have a real blind spot on this

    The EU has said they won't erect a hard border in any circumstances (as as ROI and UK? )
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742

    Commentators confirm the ERG position that if we leave on no deal in March the EU will be forced into erecting a border and they have a real blind spot on this

    Yes, but is so then any Hard Irish Border would be blamed on Britain, not agreed by the EU.
  • Commentators confirm the ERG position that if we leave on no deal in March the EU will be forced into erecting a border and they have a real blind spot on this

    So if they don't want a border they can compromise.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    GIN1138 said:

    Commentators confirm the ERG position that if we leave on no deal in March the EU will be forced into erecting a border and they have a real blind spot on this

    The EU has said they won't erect a hard border in any circumstances (as as ROI and UK? )
    So what's the big fuss about?
  • Donny43 said:

    Roger said:

    Tony Blair is the most clear thinking politician we have ever had. Even now he makes the rest sound self serving confused or stupid. For an explanation which makes sense switch onto radio 4 and listen to his whole interview

    This mess is at least partly his fault for not giving us the referendum on the constitution he promised, and for not pushing the euro which he believed in (probably still does, too).
    Donny43 said:

    Roger said:

    Tony Blair is the most clear thinking politician we have ever had. Even now he makes the rest sound self serving confused or stupid. For an explanation which makes sense switch onto radio 4 and listen to his whole interview

    This mess is at least partly his fault for not giving us the referendum on the constitution he promised, and for not pushing the euro which he believed in (probably still does, too).
    The blame spreads far and wide, Donny, but as usual the greatest responsibility rests on those with the greatest power.

    I'd start in Brussels and work down.
  • GIN1138 said:

    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Philip Collins has a cunning plan for May to do a deal with Lab moderate remainers for a 2nd vote: her deal vs remain.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/163188a2-fef4-11e8-92e0-7fb8092617eb

    Very much doubt May has it in her to be so bold. And he fails to say what happens if her deal wins and then HoC again doesn't pass it. I suppose the referendum could be made binding - can that be done?

    Why is there the assumption that the second referendum doesn't have WTO on the ballot paper?
    Because no sane politician or sensible government would or could afford to put it forward.
    But Leave Means Leave (or some other group) will take the electoral commission to court as soon as the question is revealed without WTO Brexit on the ballot?

    What if the "enemies of the people" side with the people and say WTO must be on the ballot?

    Would't that be delicious. :D
    I cannot see a referendum without no deal on it

    Even Gina Miller has said it would have to be deal - no deal - remain 'to be fair to all parties'
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Dura_Ace said:

    kle4 said:


    I'm sure they are sick of it but holing May below waterline isn't helpful - her ability to carry those other options had just been reduced because they've humiliated her, and it will increase the number of eff off sentiment. I get they want us to revoke A50 rather than take the deal, they want to keep that money so badly, but if someone has approached a cliff edge, even of their own accord, I don't know that insulting them and mocking then when they complain about their own problems helps draw them away from the edge, which they dont want either.

    Its not about May it's about the Commons. Even fewer Tories will now back the deal with no clear support for anything else and Labour only care about a GE. Mocking the one person who did want a deal and at least tried has made them feel better I'm sure but what does it achieve?

    The EU don't really need to achieve anything more now. They have achieved everything they need. May's deal is fine for the EU if not the UK and so would be our rescinding A50. They fear our exit on WTO terms as well they should but know that there is no chance of it happening thanks to 1. 5 out of 6 MPs being against it and that 2. May clearly sees it as the worst of all options.

    So they are free to insult and humiliate the UK PM as much as they wish.

    I agree with your comments but the EU are going to have one very difficult member if the UK remains
    Only while this disgusting wreck of a government staggers on. The imminent and inevitable Labour government will have a more cordial and constructive relationship with the EU.
    With Corbyn as leader? :p
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    GIN1138 said:

    Commentators confirm the ERG position that if we leave on no deal in March the EU will be forced into erecting a border and they have a real blind spot on this

    The EU has said they won't erect a hard border in any circumstances (as as ROI and UK? )
    Have they? On the radio last night they were saying that they (and we) would be obliged to under WTO rules.
  • Mr. Punter, not sure if you were here, but one PBer (I forget who, alas), described Gove's role as being to un-fuck the departments the likes of Grayling has previously run :p

    Lol! No I didn't catch that.

    Number One Son tends to be apolitical and calls things straight, so it was intriguing he spoke so highly of Gove as a Minister, especially as he thinks Brexit is Bonkers and Gove of course is....
    Gove was quite controversial at schools and justice, but I've heard equally high praise from non-Tories at DEFRA. I think he genuinely enjoys it too.
  • Foxy said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Commentators confirm the ERG position that if we leave on no deal in March the EU will be forced into erecting a border and they have a real blind spot on this

    The EU has said they won't erect a hard border in any circumstances (as as ROI and UK? )
    Have they? On the radio last night they were saying that they (and we) would be obliged to under WTO rules.
    Well thats on them for not providing a workable deal then....
  • GIN1138 said:

    Commentators confirm the ERG position that if we leave on no deal in March the EU will be forced into erecting a border and they have a real blind spot on this

    The EU has said they won't erect a hard border in any circumstances (as as ROI and UK? )
    Apparently they would have to
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    How about this for a Gov't of all the talents ?

    PM: Raab
    Chancellor: McDonald
    Home: Boris Johnson
    Foreign: David Davis
    Defence: Corbyn
    Health: Mogg
    Business: Burgon
    Work and pensions: IDS
    Education: Angela Rayner
    DEFRA: Paterson
    Transport: Grayling
    International development: Patel
    Fun: May
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    RobD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kle4 said:


    I'm sure they are sick of it but holing May below waterline isn't helpful - her ability to carry those other options had just been reduced because they've humiliated her, and it will increase the number of eff off sentiment. I get they want us to revoke A50 rather than take the deal, they want to keep that money so badly, but if someone has approached a cliff edge, even of their own accord, I don't know that insulting them and mocking then when they complain about their own problems helps draw them away from the edge, which they dont want either.

    Its not about May it's about the Commons. Even fewer Tories will now back the deal with no clear support for anything else and Labour only care about a GE. Mocking the one person who did want a deal and at least tried has made them feel better I'm sure but what does it achieve?

    The EU don't really need to achieve anything more now. They have achieved everything they need. May's deal is fine for the EU if not the UK and so would be our rescinding A50. They fear our exit on WTO terms as well they should but know that there is no chance of it happening thanks to 1. 5 out of 6 MPs being against it and that 2. May clearly sees it as the worst of all options.

    So they are free to insult and humiliate the UK PM as much as they wish.

    I agree with your comments but the EU are going to have one very difficult member if the UK remains
    Only while this disgusting wreck of a government staggers on. The imminent and inevitable Labour government will have a more cordial and constructive relationship with the EU.
    With Corbyn as leader? :p
    I think that Corbyn would be cordial and constructive with the EU. Some elements of the UK population may find him less so, but even with opponents he is generally well mannered and cordial.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    John_M said:

    kle4 said:


    I'm sure they are sick of it but holing May below waterline isn't helpful - her ability to carry those other options had just been reduced because they've humiliated her, and it will increase the number of eff off sentiment. I get they want us to revoke A50 rather than take the deal, they want to keep that money so badly, but if someone has approached a cliff edge, even of their own accord, I don't know that insulting them and mocking then when they complain about their own problems helps draw them away from the edge, which they dont want either.

    Its not about May it's about the Commons. Even fewer Tories will now back the deal with no clear support for anything else and Labour only care about a GE. Mocking the one person who did want a deal and at least tried has made them feel better I'm sure but what does it achieve?

    The EU don't really need to achieve anything more now. They have achieved everything they need. May's deal is fine for the EU if not the UK and so would be our rescinding A50. They fear our exit on WTO terms as well they should but know that there is no chance of it happening thanks to 1. 5 out of 6 MPs being against it and that 2. May clearly sees it as the worst of all options.

    So they are free to insult and humiliate the UK PM as much as they wish.

    I agree with your comments but the EU are going to have one very difficult member if the UK remains
    The EU is a Eurozone club now. The UK can sit at the back of the bus with the Visigrad countries. If you look at the new rules for QMV, it's fecking hard for a non-EZ country to summon a blocking minority and EZ countries make up more than 55% of the votes.

    Under the current rules QMV is also contextual, which is fair enough - the UK gets no votes on Euro or Schengen measures.

    'Influence' is a hollow joke whether in or out.
    EU members get a vote and can trade off most of the things they dislike through horse trading. You get influence from those facts. The corrollary is that outside that trading system and without a vote no-one is interested in your horse or will pay you any attention at all.
  • Mr. Punter, not sure if you were here, but one PBer (I forget who, alas), described Gove's role as being to un-fuck the departments the likes of Grayling has previously run :p

    Lol! No I didn't catch that.

    Number One Son tends to be apolitical and calls things straight, so it was intriguing he spoke so highly of Gove as a Minister, especially as he thinks Brexit is Bonkers and Gove of course is....
    Gove was quite controversial at schools and justice, but I've heard equally high praise from non-Tories at DEFRA. I think he genuinely enjoys it too.
    Horses for courses, Rabbit. I hate the bastard but even I would put him in a position for which he showed real talent.
  • Foxy said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Commentators confirm the ERG position that if we leave on no deal in March the EU will be forced into erecting a border and they have a real blind spot on this

    The EU has said they won't erect a hard border in any circumstances (as as ROI and UK? )
    Have they? On the radio last night they were saying that they (and we) would be obliged to under WTO rules.
    So they can compromise then.

    No sign of that currently.
  • Pulpstar said:

    How about this for a Gov't of all the talents ?

    PM: Raab
    Chancellor: McDonald
    Home: Boris Johnson
    Foreign: David Davis
    Defence: Corbyn
    Health: Mogg
    Business: Burgon
    Work and pensions: IDS
    Education: Angela Rayner
    DEFRA: Paterson
    Transport: Grayling
    International development: Patel
    Fun: May

    I would go back and live in Scotland as they become Independent
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    Pulpstar said:

    How about this for a Gov't of all the talents ?

    PM: Raab
    Chancellor: McDonald
    Home: Boris Johnson
    Foreign: David Davis
    Defence: Corbyn
    Health: Mogg
    Business: Burgon
    Work and pensions: IDS
    Education: Angela Rayner
    DEFRA: Paterson
    Transport: Grayling
    International development: Patel
    Fun: May

    I don't think that one would get past the first round of Britain's Got Talent!
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471
    How can the WTO force us to build a border if neither country wants to?

    Could we just sign a WTO-like deal with the EU which is exactly the same but without a border with Ireland?
  • Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kle4 said:


    I'm sure they are sick of it but holing May below waterline isn't helpful - her ability to carry those other options had just been reduced because they've humiliated her, and it will increase the number of eff off sentiment. I get they want us to revoke A50 rather than take the deal, they want to keep that money so badly, but if someone has approached a cliff edge, even of their own accord, I don't know that insulting them and mocking then when they complain about their own problems helps draw them away from the edge, which they dont want either.

    Its not about May it's about the Commons. Even fewer Tories will now back the deal with no clear support for anything else and Labour only care about a GE. Mocking the one person who did want a deal and at least tried has made them feel better I'm sure but what does it achieve?

    The EU don't really need to achieve anything more now. They have achieved everything they need. May's deal is fine for the EU if not the UK and so would be our rescinding A50. They fear our exit on WTO terms as well they should but know that there is no chance of it happening thanks to 1. 5 out of 6 MPs being against it and that 2. May clearly sees it as the worst of all options.

    So they are free to insult and humiliate the UK PM as much as they wish.

    I agree with your comments but the EU are going to have one very difficult member if the UK remains
    Only while this disgusting wreck of a government staggers on. The imminent and inevitable Labour government will have a more cordial and constructive relationship with the EU.
    With Corbyn as leader? :p
    I think that Corbyn would be cordial and constructive with the EU. Some elements of the UK population may find him less so, but even with opponents he is generally well mannered and cordial.
    You really are a Corbynista
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Foxy said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Commentators confirm the ERG position that if we leave on no deal in March the EU will be forced into erecting a border and they have a real blind spot on this

    The EU has said they won't erect a hard border in any circumstances (as as ROI and UK? )
    Have they? On the radio last night they were saying that they (and we) would be obliged to under WTO rules.
    I thought WTO had said exceptions can be made when the political situation is particularly "delicate" like with NI and ROI?
  • Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    How about this for a Gov't of all the talents ?

    PM: Raab
    Chancellor: McDonald
    Home: Boris Johnson
    Foreign: David Davis
    Defence: Corbyn
    Health: Mogg
    Business: Burgon
    Work and pensions: IDS
    Education: Angela Rayner
    DEFRA: Paterson
    Transport: Grayling
    International development: Patel
    Fun: May

    I don't think that one would get past the first round of Britain's Got Talent!
    how much is a one way plane ticket out of here?
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251

    IanB2 said:

    Freggles said:

    Scott_P said:
    PM: Hilary Benn
    Chancellor: Ed Balls
    Foreign Secretary: Nick Clegg
    Home Secretary: Ken Clarke
    Health: Norman Lamb
    Communities and Local Govt including devolution: Nicola Sturgeon
    Defense: Ruth Davidson
    Transport: Andy Burnham
    Environment: Michael Gove


    That would be awesome
    I'd prefer Darling to Balls, and swap Clegg, Clarke and Sturgeon about, but that's a solid lineup.
    I particularly like Davidson at Defence. Nobody would mess with her!

    By the way, I am a dedicated Gove-hater, but my son who is a lecturer in agriculture and no friend of the Tories has dealt directly with him and was very impressed. So he's in. :-)
    A farmer friend of mine I was speaking to yesterday called him a weedy little man but reading between the lines I rather suspect he holds a grudging respect for the guy.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kle4 said:


    I'm sure they are sick of it but holing May below waterline isn't helpful - her ability to carry those other options had just been reduced because they've humiliated her, and it will increase the number of eff off sentiment. I get they want us to revoke A50 rather than take the deal, they want to keep that money so badly, but if someone has approached a cliff edge, even of their own accord, I don't know that insulting them and mocking then when they complain about their own problems helps draw them away from the edge, which they dont want either.

    Its not about May it's about the Commons. Even fewer Tories will now back the deal with no clear support for anything else and Labour only care about a GE. Mocking the one person who did want a deal and at least tried has made them feel better I'm sure but what does it achieve?

    The EU don't really need to achieve anything more now. They have achieved everything they need. May's deal is fine for the EU if not the UK and so would be our rescinding A50. They fear our exit on WTO terms as well they should but know that there is no chance of it happening thanks to 1. 5 out of 6 MPs being against it and that 2. May clearly sees it as the worst of all options.

    So they are free to insult and humiliate the UK PM as much as they wish.

    I agree with your comments but the EU are going to have one very difficult member if the UK remains
    Only while this disgusting wreck of a government staggers on. The imminent and inevitable Labour government will have a more cordial and constructive relationship with the EU.
    With Corbyn as leader? :p
    I think that Corbyn would be cordial and constructive with the EU. Some elements of the UK population may find him less so, but even with opponents he is generally well mannered and cordial.
    You really are a Corbynista
    No, but neither am I a Jezzaphobe. He has many positive qualities, but also many negative ones.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    GIN1138 said:

    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Philip Collins has a cunning plan for May to do a deal with Lab moderate remainers for a 2nd vote: her deal vs remain.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/163188a2-fef4-11e8-92e0-7fb8092617eb

    Very much doubt May has it in her to be so bold. And he fails to say what happens if her deal wins and then HoC again doesn't pass it. I suppose the referendum could be made binding - can that be done?

    Why is there the assumption that the second referendum doesn't have WTO on the ballot paper?
    Because no sane politician or sensible government would or could afford to put it forward.
    But Leave Means Leave (or some other group) will take the electoral commission to court as soon as the question is revealed without WTO Brexit on the ballot?

    What if the "enemies of the people" side with the people and say WTO must be on the ballot?

    Would't that be delicious. :D
    Parliament decides what the referendum choice is; the Commission just confirms the wording of the statements on offer.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    Philip Collins has a cunning plan for May to do a deal with Lab moderate remainers for a 2nd vote: her deal vs remain.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/163188a2-fef4-11e8-92e0-7fb8092617eb

    Very much doubt May has it in her to be so bold. And he fails to say what happens if her deal wins and then HoC again doesn't pass it. I suppose the referendum could be made binding - can that be done?

    And I don't think Labour moderates are interested. They are now convinced that Brexit can be reversed and they have nothing to gain by digging May out of the pile of ordure she has poured over herself.
This discussion has been closed.