EU announced tonight Bits to pay 7EUR for travel visa last three years. Great negotiating TM.
Irrelevant - we wont leave now
How? No deal is default and parliament is deadlocked.
We both know no deal will be stopped
Do we? How?
A way will be found. Likely Article 50 being revoked or suspended. There is no way a Remain parliament and a Remain establishment is going to let No Deal happen. Simply no chance.
I fear a big part of Labour's strategy would allow us to fall from the cliff provided it is the Tories who get the blame.
Then should not the Tories step away from the edge?
All the Tories stepping way from the edge does not take the UK away from the edge. It's the numbers.....
To be fair, he effectively called those who voted against May the extremists. Many Brexiteers voted for her. And it’s a bit rich for the ERGers to complain about intemperate language.
It was a pretty silly thing to say, even if to some extent true.
And it is an illustration that emotion rather than reason is motivating a large number of MPs now, which is why the impasse is likely to continue.
EU announced tonight Bits to pay 7EUR for travel visa last three years. Great negotiating TM.
Irrelevant - we wont leave now
How? No deal is default and parliament is deadlocked.
We both know no deal will be stopped
Do we? How?
A way will be found. Likely Article 50 being revoked or suspended. There is no way a Remain parliament and a Remain establishment is going to let No Deal happen. Simply no chance.
I fear a big part of Labour's strategy would allow us to fall from the cliff provided it is the Tories who get the blame.
Then should not the Tories step away from the edge?
All the Tories stepping way from the edge does not take the UK away from the edge. It's the numbers.....
EU announced tonight Bits to pay 7EUR for travel visa last three years. Great negotiating TM.
Irrelevant - we wont leave now
How? No deal is default and parliament is deadlocked.
We both know no deal will be stopped
Do we? How?
A way will be found. Likely Article 50 being revoked or suspended. There is no way a Remain parliament and a Remain establishment is going to let No Deal happen. Simply no chance.
I fear a big part of Labour's strategy would allow us to fall from the cliff provided it is the Tories who get the blame.
Then should not the Tories step away from the edge?
Corbyn could "reluctantly for the national interest" agree to abstain on the meaningful vote adding that he will test the confidence of the house after such a move. If the DUP stay true to their word then he gets a GE. If they back the Tories he could hold a national exec where A50 revocation is agreed and block the further legislation needed for the WA dependant on a second referendum. OK so it is playing games to some degree, but the DUP would have to back the deal which seems unlikely. That would be far more responsible than just digging in with the current impasse.
It’s a theoretical possibility, but seems unlikely to me. It would actually be a statesmanlike thing to do. I’d be interested in Nick Palmer’s opinion of this.
I can't see it, the party probably wouldn't be happy about it. He has the power to go against MPs and Labour party members but there is no advantage to sticking his neck out like this. Everyone has their own national interest argument (usually lines up with their position) would Corbyn see May's deal as it?
I don't think so.
Although Nick is a far better person to ask just my guess.
Edit: I imagine Labour party voters wouldn't be too happy either...
No Deal, not Remain, is the default. Politics follows the path of least resistance, and too many in the Labour Party see No Deal Brexit as an event that - while it might cause distress to the country - will cause more to the Conservative Party. No Deal, they say, bring it on, for it is the Tories who will be blamed.
The Labour party are surely wrong if they think the blame for a disaster will attach itself neatly to the Tories. There will be plenty of blame to go around, and their voting for triggering A50 will make them at least partly complicit.
But how do we end up with No Deal outcome? Surely if it gets close and people get worried, parliament will just chuck out Theresa May by 500-100 and then we will rescind A50 for a new govt to have a crack at the negotiation?
If legislation is necessary, it can be passed through the Commons in one day if needed - and it hardly seems likely the Lords will delay it either...
No Deal, not Remain, is the default. Politics follows the path of least resistance, and too many in the Labour Party see No Deal Brexit as an event that - while it might cause distress to the country - will cause more to the Conservative Party. No Deal, they say, bring it on, for it is the Tories who will be blamed.
The Labour party are surely wrong if they think the blame for a disaster will attach itself neatly to the Tories. There will be plenty of blame to go around, and their voting for triggering A50 will make them at least partly complicit.
But how do we end up with No Deal outcome? Surely if it gets close and people get worried, parliament will just chuck out Theresa May by 500-100 and then we will rescind A50 for a new govt to have a crack at the negotiation?
If legislation is necessary, it can be passed through the Commons in one day if needed - and it hardly seems likely the Lords will delay it either...
I don't think you are missing anything. Leavers like Robert just haven't processed yet the significance of the CJEU ruling on revocation of A50. Yes no deal is technically the default but we would now de facto have to actively decide to leave with no deal as we can just revoke if we want to.
All Brexit gas gas going for it since at least the GE result is it's inevitability. Which is why must Brexiter are in denial about the CJEU ruling.
No Deal, not Remain, is the default. Politics follows the path of least resistance, and too many in the Labour Party see No Deal Brexit as an event that - while it might cause distress to the country - will cause more to the Conservative Party. No Deal, they say, bring it on, for it is the Tories who will be blamed.
The Labour party are surely wrong if they think the blame for a disaster will attach itself neatly to the Tories. There will be plenty of blame to go around, and their voting for triggering A50 will make them at least partly complicit.
But how do we end up with No Deal outcome? Surely if it gets close and people get worried, parliament will just chuck out Theresa May by 500-100 and then we will rescind A50 for a new govt to have a crack at the negotiation?
If legislation is necessary, it can be passed through the Commons in one day if needed - and it hardly seems likely the Lords will delay it either...
No Deal, not Remain, is the default. Politics follows the path of least resistance, and too many in the Labour Party see No Deal Brexit as an event that - while it might cause distress to the country - will cause more to the Conservative Party. No Deal, they say, bring it on, for it is the Tories who will be blamed.
The Labour party are surely wrong if they think the blame for a disaster will attach itself neatly to the Tories. There will be plenty of blame to go around, and their voting for triggering A50 will make them at least partly complicit.
But how do we end up with No Deal outcome? Surely if it gets close and people get worried, parliament will just chuck out Theresa May by 500-100 and then we will rescind A50 for a new govt to have a crack at the negotiation?
If legislation is necessary, it can be passed through the Commons in one day if needed - and it hardly seems likely the Lords will delay it either...
I don't think you are missing anything. Leavers like Robert just haven't processed yet the significance of the CJEU ruling on revocation of A50. Yes no deal is technically the default but we would now de facto have to actively decide to leave with no deal as we can just revoke if we want to.
All Brexit gas gas going for it since at least the GE result is it's inevitability. Which is why must Brexiter are in denial about the CJEU ruling.
The ruling has made it less likely that Parliament will say "you got it wrong, vote again" and more likely that they will say "you got it wrong, we'll just ignore you".
No Deal, not Remain, is the default. Politics follows the path of least resistance, and too many in the Labour Party see No Deal Brexit as an event that - while it might cause distress to the country - will cause more to the Conservative Party. No Deal, they say, bring it on, for it is the Tories who will be blamed.
The Labour party are surely wrong if they think the blame for a disaster will attach itself neatly to the Tories. There will be plenty of blame to go around, and their voting for triggering A50 will make them at least partly complicit.
But how do we end up with No Deal outcome? Surely if it gets close and people get worried, parliament will just chuck out Theresa May by 500-100 and then we will rescind A50 for a new govt to have a crack at the negotiation?
If legislation is necessary, it can be passed through the Commons in one day if needed - and it hardly seems likely the Lords will delay it either...
I don't think you are missing anything. Leavers like Robert just haven't processed yet the significance of the CJEU ruling on revocation of A50. Yes no deal is technically the default but we would now de facto have to actively decide to leave with no deal as we can just revoke if we want to.
All Brexit gas gas going for it since at least the GE result is it's inevitability. Which is why must Brexiter are in denial about the CJEU ruling.
The ruling has made it less likely that Parliament will say "you got it wrong, vote again" and more likely that they will say "you got it wrong, we'll just ignore you".
The only way out of Britain's Ratners Moment is a #peoplesvote.
Government and Parliament cannot resolve this.
Ashcroft polling shows that Remainers hate Mays Deal even more than Leavers. There simply is no compromise that all can agree on:
No Deal, not Remain, is the default. Politics follows the path of least resistance, and too many in the Labour Party see No Deal Brexit as an event that - while it might cause distress to the country - will cause more to the Conservative Party. No Deal, they say, bring it on, for it is the Tories who will be blamed.
The Labour party are surely wrong if they think the blame for a disaster will attach itself neatly to the Tories. There will be plenty of blame to go around, and their voting for triggering A50 will make them at least partly complicit.
But how do we end up with No Deal outcome? Surely if it gets close and people get worried, parliament will just chuck out Theresa May by 500-100 and then we will rescind A50 for a new govt to have a crack at the negotiation?
If legislation is necessary, it can be passed through the Commons in one day if needed - and it hardly seems likely the Lords will delay it either...
I don't think you are missing anything. Leavers like Robert just haven't processed yet the significance of the CJEU ruling on revocation of A50. Yes no deal is technically the default but we would now de facto have to actively decide to leave with no deal as we can just revoke if we want to.
All Brexit gas gas going for it since at least the GE result is it's inevitability. Which is why must Brexiter are in denial about the CJEU ruling.
The ruling has made it less likely that Parliament will say "you got it wrong, vote again" and more likely that they will say "you got it wrong, we'll just ignore you".
We did get it wrong. Brexit is proving to be a disaster. Somebody has to do something.
No Deal, not Remain, is the default. Politics follows the path of least resistance, and too many in the Labour Party see No Deal Brexit as an event that - while it might cause distress to the country - will cause more to the Conservative Party. No Deal, they say, bring it on, for it is the Tories who will be blamed.
The Labour party are surely wrong if they think the blame for a disaster will attach itself neatly to the Tories. There will be plenty of blame to go around, and their voting for triggering A50 will make them at least partly complicit.
But how do we end up with No Deal outcome? Surely if it gets close and people get worried, parliament will just chuck out Theresa May by 500-100 and then we will rescind A50 for a new govt to have a crack at the negotiation?
If legislation is necessary, it can be passed through the Commons in one day if needed - and it hardly seems likely the Lords will delay it either...
I don't think you are missing anything. Leavers like Robert just haven't processed yet the significance of the CJEU ruling on revocation of A50. Yes no deal is technically the default but we would now de facto have to actively decide to leave with no deal as we can just revoke if we want to.
All Brexit gas gas going for it since at least the GE result is it's inevitability. Which is why must Brexiter are in denial about the CJEU ruling.
The CJEU ruling was politically driven precisely to push the UK towards Remaining.
The Conservatives are supposed to be about good economic governance. --> even as the economy is going well, they're trashing that reputation on the altar of Brexit.
Labour are supposed to be about being good for people. --> by risking the economic chaos of no deal that will hurt real people, by being in the grip of interest groups, and by having an anti-Semite in charge, they're trashing that reputation.
Lib Dems are supposed to be a reasonable middle ground. --> they're not trashing that reputation as they're invisible, and the ones that do offer suggestions are wildly unrealistic.
The DUP are supposed to want to keep NI in the UK. --> they're risking exactly the opposite.
Only the SNP seem to be doing anything like their traditional role. Then again, it's quite easy for them given their situation (especially the Scottish vote in the EU ref).
Incidentally, has anyone worked out what Mrs May is asking the EU for?
I suspect that she’s really asking them to prove to the halfwit class that all this renegotiate sh1t they’re spouting is just another lie. Applies as much to Corbyn groupies as the ERG types.
No Deal, not Remain, is the default. Politics follows the path of least resistance, and too many in the Labour Party see No Deal Brexit as an event that - while it might cause distress to the country - will cause more to the Conservative Party. No Deal, they say, bring it on, for it is the Tories who will be blamed.
The Labour party are surely wrong if they think the blame for a disaster will attach itself neatly to the Tories. There will be plenty of blame to go around, and their voting for triggering A50 will make them at least partly complicit.
But how do we end up with No Deal outcome? Surely if it gets close and people get worried, parliament will just chuck out Theresa May by 500-100 and then we will rescind A50 for a new govt to have a crack at the negotiation?
If legislation is necessary, it can be passed through the Commons in one day if needed - and it hardly seems likely the Lords will delay it either...
I don't think you are missing anything. Leavers like Robert just haven't processed yet the significance of the CJEU ruling on revocation of A50. Yes no deal is technically the default but we would now de facto have to actively decide to leave with no deal as we can just revoke if we want to.
All Brexit gas gas going for it since at least the GE result is it's inevitability. Which is why must Brexiter are in denial about the CJEU ruling.
The ruling has made it less likely that Parliament will say "you got it wrong, vote again" and more likely that they will say "you got it wrong, we'll just ignore you".
The only way out of Britain's Ratners Moment is a #peoplesvote.
Government and Parliament cannot resolve this.
Ashcroft polling shows that Remainers hate Mays Deal even more than Leavers. There simply is no compromise that all can agree on:
The one thing that we should all be able to agree on is that this saga has shown that Parliament shouldn't put an option to the people that it doesn't want to implement.
From this it follows that if Parliament can't accept leaving with the deal and can't accept leaving with no deal then it must revoke off its own bat.
The DUP are supposed to want to keep NI in the UK. --> they're risking exactly the opposite.
My Irish wife said yesterday that she thought the DUP wanted a hard border because they saw it as the way to ensure that demographics didn't lead to a united Ireland as such a border would create a practical division across the island
The Conservatives are supposed to be about good economic governance. --> even as the economy is going well, they're trashing that reputation on the altar of Brexit.
Labour are supposed to be about being good for people. --> by risking the economic chaos of no deal that will hurt real people, by being in the grip of interest groups, and by having an anti-Semite in charge, they're trashing that reputation.
Lib Dems are supposed to be a reasonable middle ground. --> they're not trashing that reputation as they're invisible, and the ones that do offer suggestions are wildly unrealistic.
The DUP are supposed to want to keep NI in the UK. --> they're risking exactly the opposite.
Only the SNP seem to be doing anything like their traditional role. Then again, it's quite easy for them given their situation (especially the Scottish vote in the EU ref).
That polling says 32% of those who think Brexit is going badly blame anti-Brexit politicians. Voters would blame the govt more certainly, but there would be plenty of blame for the opposition and for politicians in general.
Why did May not ask for rUK to remain in single market for goods within backstop perhaps obviating potential Irish Sea regulatory barriers ? It does not affect the remainder of the WA and could have been provided via legal addendum like Spain's Gibraltar clarification.
Did anyone even ask for it ??????
Because the Tory party were outraged by the "common rule book" approach in Chequers, so the future declaration was changed to reflect Canada+. No more frictionless trade.
No Deal, not Remain, is the default. Politics follows the path of least resistance, and too many in the Labour Party see No Deal Brexit as an event that - while it might cause distress to the country - will cause more to the Conservative Party. No Deal, they say, bring it on, for it is the Tories who will be blamed.
The Labour party are surely wrong if they think the blame for a disaster will attach itself neatly to the Tories. There will be plenty of blame to go around, and their voting for triggering A50 will make them at least partly complicit.
But how do we end up with No Deal outcome? Surely if it gets close and people get worried, parliament will just chuck out Theresa May by 500-100 and then we will rescind A50 for a new govt to have a crack at the negotiation?
If legislation is necessary, it can be passed through the Commons in one day if needed - and it hardly seems likely the Lords will delay it either...
I think you are missing Corbyn. He is the block to that scenario because he is more fundamentally in favour of Leaving than May, Tory rebels will not put him into number ten and the failed coup of 2016, combined with the 2017GE, has cowed Labour's Parliamentary rebels in sufficient numbers.
Incidentally, has anyone worked out what Mrs May is asking the EU for?
AIUI, we want to stop free movement, having to accept rules being made for our trade by the EU and we want to be able to make trade deals with the rest of the world (How does EU membership do that?) and we want to stop non British fishermen fishing in ‘our’ waters BUT we also want to be able to trade freely with other EU countries, without border controls, we want our standards to be accepted without consultation, we want our financial institutions to operate without let or hindrance across the EU and we want our fishermen to be able to sell their catch in the EU.
@Donny43 is correct. Parliamentenarians should stop arguing for a charade of a people's vote and simply call to reverse Art 50. Clearly no deal and any deal to leave the EU is acceptable to the majority of members.
That polling says 32% of those who think Brexit is going badly blame anti-Brexit politicians. Voters would blame the govt more certainly, but there would be plenty of blame for the opposition and for politicians in general.
That is a quite spread 32% though, from those blaming the Lib Dems or the SNP who have been quite prominent anti Brexit parties to those blaming individuals in Labour or Labour as a whole. The government figure is all the Tories.
Which isn't to say your wrong but I would suspect that a lot of those who would pick out Labour to blame are the type to be anti Labour to start with without much blame coming from those who would consider voting or actually vote Labour.
No Deal, not Remain, is the default. Politics follows the path of least resistance, and too many in the Labour Party see No Deal Brexit as an event that - while it might cause distress to the country - will cause more to the Conservative Party. No Deal, they say, bring it on, for it is the Tories who will be blamed.
The Labour party are surely wrong if they think the blame for a disaster will attach itself neatly to the Tories. There will be plenty of blame to go around, and their voting for triggering A50 will make them at least partly complicit.
But how do we end up with No Deal outcome? Surely if it gets close and people get worried, parliament will just chuck out Theresa May by 500-100 and then we will rescind A50 for a new govt to have a crack at the negotiation?
If legislation is necessary, it can be passed through the Commons in one day if needed - and it hardly seems likely the Lords will delay it either...
I think you are missing Corbyn. He is the block to that scenario because he is more fundamentally in favour of Leaving than May, Tory rebels will not put him into number ten and the failed coup of 2016, combined with the 2017GE, has cowed Labour's Parliamentary rebels in sufficient numbers.
Corbyn wouldn't be blocking article 50 revocation if it was being pushed through by May instead of no deal.
No Deal, not Remain, is the default. Politics follows the path of least resistance, and too many in the Labour Party see No Deal Brexit as an event that - while it might cause distress to the country - will cause more to the Conservative Party. No Deal, they say, bring it on, for it is the Tories who will be blamed.
The Labour party are surely wrong if they think the blame for a disaster will attach itself neatly to the Tories. There will be plenty of blame to go around, and their voting for triggering A50 will make them at least partly complicit.
But how do we end up with No Deal outcome? Surely if it gets close and people get worried, parliament will just chuck out Theresa May by 500-100 and then we will rescind A50 for a new govt to have a crack at the negotiation?
If legislation is necessary, it can be passed through the Commons in one day if needed - and it hardly seems likely the Lords will delay it either...
I don't think you are missing anything. Leavers like Robert just haven't processed yet the significance of the CJEU ruling on revocation of A50. Yes no deal is technically the default but we would now de facto have to actively decide to leave with no deal as we can just revoke if we want to.
All Brexit gas gas going for it since at least the GE result is it's inevitability. Which is why must Brexiter are in denial about the CJEU ruling.
The CJEU ruling was politically driven precisely to push the UK towards Remaining.
Not sure that’s true. One of my friends works in a senior position within the ECJ and the EU were lobbying hard for this not to happen on the basis that it would set a precedent for others, in particular Italy. From what I understand, the way A50 was drafted gave the ECJ no real choice though. The EU’s influence has however been felt in the non abuse part of the judgement I suspect (as this wasn’t clear from the drafting either and an interpretation).
No Deal, not Remain, is the default. Politics follows the path of least resistance, and too many in the Labour Party see No Deal Brexit as an event that - while it might cause distress to the country - will cause more to the Conservative Party. No Deal, they say, bring it on, for it is the Tories who will be blamed.
The Labour party are surely wrong if they think the blame for a disaster will attach itself neatly to the Tories. There will be plenty of blame to go around, and their voting for triggering A50 will make them at least partly complicit.
But how do we end up with No Deal outcome? Surely if it gets close and people get worried, parliament will just chuck out Theresa May by 500-100 and then we will rescind A50 for a new govt to have a crack at the negotiation?
If legislation is necessary, it can be passed through the Commons in one day if needed - and it hardly seems likely the Lords will delay it either...
I don't think you are missing anything. Leavers like Robert just haven't processed yet the significance of the CJEU ruling on revocation of A50. Yes no deal is technically the default but we would now de facto have to actively decide to leave with no deal as we can just revoke if we want to.
All Brexit gas gas going for it since at least the GE result is it's inevitability. Which is why must Brexiter are in denial about the CJEU ruling.
That is a good point. Mrs May's hope that by letting time pass without much happening will make her plan the only alternative to a No Deal Brexit cannot now work. Her best bet would be to have a Deal/Remain referendum where she stands a chance of winning. To get to March without things having been decided now means that the real choice will be Deal or 'Revoke and Remain'. No sane government will let the UK exit with No Deal and if her Deal is still wildly unpopular then they will have to revoke and remain. It would be better for her to take her chance and get the electorate's backing for her Deal or Remain.
No Deal, not Remain, is the default. Politics follows the path of least resistance, and too many in the Labour Party see No Deal Brexit as an event that - while it might cause distress to the country - will cause more to the Conservative Party. No Deal, they say, bring it on, for it is the Tories who will be blamed.
The Labour party are surely wrong if they think the blame for a disaster will attach itself neatly to the Tories. There will be plenty of blame to go around, and their voting for triggering A50 will make them at least partly complicit.
But how do we end up with No Deal outcome? Surely if it gets close and people get worried, parliament will just chuck out Theresa May by 500-100 and then we will rescind A50 for a new govt to have a crack at the negotiation?
If legislation is necessary, it can be passed through the Commons in one day if needed - and it hardly seems likely the Lords will delay it either...
I think you are missing Corbyn. He is the block to that scenario because he is more fundamentally in favour of Leaving than May, Tory rebels will not put him into number ten and the failed coup of 2016, combined with the 2017GE, has cowed Labour's Parliamentary rebels in sufficient numbers.
1) Corbyn doesn't have to become PM for legislation rescinding A50 to pass. 2) There's no way Corbyn would insist on a no deal brexit. He would lose the membership and hence cease to be leader.
If we end up with a second referendum, which I must admit after this shambles of an attempted renegotiation I lean a little more toward tonight, the entire process will have been a VERY worthwhile exercise in showing up the absolute lack of talent, imagination, failure to engage with reality, wishful thinking and all round incompetence of our politics.
Agree with all of this. I would personally take May’s deal but if the HoC is too stupid and useless to play ball then a referendum is the only practical option. The politicians should reap the whirlwind here but you need a plausible candidate for PM to make that a positive outcome though.
No Deal, not Remain, is the default. Politics follows the path of least resistance, and too many in the Labour Party see No Deal Brexit as an event that - while it might cause distress to the country - will cause more to the Conservative Party. No Deal, they say, bring it on, for it is the Tories who will be blamed.
The Labour party are surely wrong if they think the blame for a disaster will attach itself neatly to the Tories. There will be plenty of blame to go around, and their voting for triggering A50 will make them at least partly complicit.
But how do we end up with No Deal outcome? Surely if it gets close and people get worried, parliament will just chuck out Theresa May by 500-100 and then we will rescind A50 for a new govt to have a crack at the negotiation?
If legislation is necessary, it can be passed through the Commons in one day if needed - and it hardly seems likely the Lords will delay it either...
I think you are missing Corbyn. He is the block to that scenario because he is more fundamentally in favour of Leaving than May, Tory rebels will not put him into number ten and the failed coup of 2016, combined with the 2017GE, has cowed Labour's Parliamentary rebels in sufficient numbers.
Corbyn wouldn't be blocking article 50 revocation if it was being pushed through by May instead of no deal.
The scenario given was: "parliament will just chuck out Theresa May by 500-100 and then we will rescind A50 for a new govt to have a crack at the negotiation?" - because May will not abandon her deal. She will try to use the pressure of time to force support for it.
No Deal, not Remain, is the default. Politics follows the path of least resistance, and too many in the Labour Party see No Deal Brexit as an event that - while it might cause distress to the country - will cause more to the Conservative Party. No Deal, they say, bring it on, for it is the Tories who will be blamed.
The Labour party are surely wrong if they think the blame for a disaster will attach itself neatly to the Tories. it.
But how do we end up with No Deal outcome? Surely if it gets close and people get worried, parliament will just chuck out Theresa May by 500-100 and then we will rescind A50 for a new govt to have a crack at the negotiation?
If legislation is necessary, it can be passed through the Commons in one day if needed - and it hardly seems likely the Lords will delay it either...
I don't think you are missing anything. Leavers like Robert just haven't processed yet the significance of the CJEU ruling on revocation of A50. Yes no deal is technically the default but we would now de facto have to actively decide to leave with no deal as we can just revoke if we want to.
All Brexit gas gas going for it since at least the GE result is it's inevitability. Which is why must Brexiter are in denial about the CJEU ruling.
That is a good point. Mrs May's hope that by letting time pass without much happening will make her plan the only alternative to a No Deal Brexit cannot now work. Her best bet would be to have a Deal/Remain referendum where she stands a chance of winning. To get to March without things having been decided now means that the real choice will be Deal or 'Revoke and Remain'. No sane government will let the UK exit with No Deal and if her Deal is still wildly unpopular then they will have to revoke and remain. It would be better for her to take her chance and get the electorate's backing for her Deal or Remain.
A deal/Remain vote always was the likely end game, as I've been saying for a long time. But of course May prefers the deal to a referendum whereas most of the opposition prefers a referendum to the deal. We are stalemated because both sides prefer both to crashing out, and therefore think the other side might blink first.
In particular May and the Tories need to have the referendum forced upon them by the parliamentary arithmetic, since any sign of actively pursuing it would be career limiting. May herself has of course just limited her career, so she might now be a tad more liberated, although she will still fret over her entry in the history books.
No Deal, not Remain, is the default. Politics follows the path of least resistance, and too many in the Labour Party see No Deal Brexit as an event that - while it might cause distress to the country - will cause more to the Conservative Party. No Deal, they say, bring it on, for it is the Tories who will be blamed.
The Labour party are surely wrong if they think the blame for a disaster will attach itself neatly to the Tories. There will be plenty of blame to go around, and their voting for triggering A50 will make them at least partly complicit.
But how do we end up with No Deal outcome? Surely if it gets close and people get worried, parliament will just chuck out Theresa May by 500-100 and then we will rescind A50 for a new govt to have a crack at the negotiation?
If legislation is necessary, it can be passed through the Commons in one day if needed - and it hardly seems likely the Lords will delay it either...
I don't think you are missing anything. Leavers like Robert just haven't processed yet the significance of the CJEU ruling on revocation of A50. Yes no deal is technically the default but we would now de facto have to actively decide to leave with no deal as we can just revoke if we want to.
All Brexit gas gas going for it since at least the GE result is it's inevitability. Which is why must Brexiter are in denial about the CJEU ruling.
That is a good point. Mrs May's hope that by letting time pass without much happening will make her plan the only alternative to a No Deal Brexit cannot now work. Her best bet would be to have a Deal/Remain referendum where she stands a chance of winning. To get to March without things having been decided now means that the real choice will be Deal or 'Revoke and Remain'. No sane government will let the UK exit with No Deal and if her Deal is still wildly unpopular then they will have to revoke and remain. It would be better for her to take her chance and get the electorate's backing for her Deal or Remain.
It's 2018 and you are invoking "sane government" ?
I must say that the hatred of Corbyn from the Tory side seems to me to be greater than that for any other Labour leader I’ve seen, and I’ve watched this sort of thing for a long time.
Angela Rayner was making the point on QT last night that after the last GE Labour had offered to discuss the How of Leaving with the Government and had been firmly rebuffed.
I cannot see how we do not go to No Deal from here.
The Labour leadership wants to avoid a referendum at all costs because a Tory-owned No Deal is its absolute priority. May will never compromise on freedom of movement and will not countenance any move by Parliament that puts the possibility of ending it at risk.
The only thing that might change the equation is overwhelming public pressure and I see little sign of that.
No Deal, not Remain, is the default. Politics follows the path of least resistance, and too many in the Labour Party see No Deal Brexit as an event that - while it might cause distress to the country - will cause more to the Conservative Party. No Deal, they say, bring it on, for it is the Tories who will be blamed.
The Labour party are surely wrong if they think the blame for a disaster will attach itself neatly to the Tories. There will be plenty of blame to go around, and their voting for triggering A50 will make them at least partly complicit.
But how do we end up with No Deal outcome? Surely if it gets close and people get worried, parliament will just chuck out Theresa May by 500-100 and then we will rescind A50 for a new govt to have a crack at the negotiation?
If legislation is necessary, it can be passed through the Commons in one day if needed - and it hardly seems likely the Lords will delay it either...
I think you are missing Corbyn. He is the block to that scenario because he is more fundamentally in favour of Leaving than May, Tory rebels will not put him into number ten and the failed coup of 2016, combined with the 2017GE, has cowed Labour's Parliamentary rebels in sufficient numbers.
1) Corbyn doesn't have to become PM for legislation rescinding A50 to pass. 2) There's no way Corbyn would insist on a no deal brexit. He would lose the membership and hence cease to be leader.
Corbyn will insist on becoming PM - rather than supporting rebel Tories who might support a different PM as head of a national unity government. This blocks such a government from being created. This means there is not a government that will bring the A50 legislation to the House. No deal then happens as the default in the absence of any alternative. Corbyn blames the Tories.
No Deal, not Remain, is the default. Politics follows the path of least resistance, and too many in the Labour Party see No Deal Brexit as an event that - while it might cause distress to the country - will cause more to the Conservative Party. No Deal, they say, bring it on, for it is the Tories who will be blamed.
The Labour party are surely wrong if they think the blame for a disaster will attach itself neatly to the Tories. There will be plenty of blame to go around, and their voting for triggering A50 will make them at least partly complicit.
But how do we end up with No Deal outcome? Surely if it gets close and people get worried, parliament will just chuck out Theresa May by 500-100 and then we will rescind A50 for a new govt to have a crack at the negotiation?
If legislation is necessary, it can be passed through the Commons in one day if needed - and it hardly seems likely the Lords will delay it either...
I think you are missing Corbyn. He is the block to that scenario because he is more fundamentally in favour of Leaving than May, Tory rebels will not put him into number ten and the failed coup of 2016, combined with the 2017GE, has cowed Labour's Parliamentary rebels in sufficient numbers.
Corbyn wouldn't be blocking article 50 revocation if it was being pushed through by May instead of no deal.
The scenario given was: "parliament will just chuck out Theresa May by 500-100 and then we will rescind A50 for a new govt to have a crack at the negotiation?" - because May will not abandon her deal. She will try to use the pressure of time to force support for it.
Okay, Corbyn would not oppose article 50 revocation over no deal regardless of who is in charge of parliament.
My hunch is May or enough of the Tory party wouldn't want to crash out with no deal unprepared rather than revoke or extend for a 2nd referendum.
I cannot see how we do not go to No Deal from here.
The Labour leadership wants to avoid a referendum at all costs because a Tory-owned No Deal is its absolute priority. May will never compromise on freedom of movement and will not countenance any move by Parliament that puts the possibility of ending it at risk.
The only thing that might change the equation is overwhelming public pressure and I see little sign of that.
Start stocking up.
The EU Court has said we can unilaterally revoke Brexit. It would be the government's choice to let No Deal happen.
I cannot see how we do not go to No Deal from here.
The Labour leadership wants to avoid a referendum at all costs because a Tory-owned No Deal is its absolute priority. May will never compromise on freedom of movement and will not countenance any move by Parliament that puts the possibility of ending it at risk.
The only thing that might change the equation is overwhelming public pressure and I see little sign of that.
Start stocking up.
Care to bet on that? Not the easiest to define admittedly. Btw - we have an outstanding bet (5-1) for 25 quid on Corbyn becoming PM within six months of the next General election.
No Deal, not Remain, is the default. Politics follows the path of least resistance, and too many in the Labour Party see No Deal Brexit as an event that - while it might cause distress to the country - will cause more to the Conservative Party. No Deal, they say, bring it on, for it is the Tories who will be blamed.
The Labour party are surely wrong if they think the blame for a disaster will attach itself neatly to the Tories. There will be plenty of blame to go around, and their voting for triggering A50 will make them at least partly complicit.
But how do we end up with No Deal outcome? Surely if it gets close and people get worried, parliament will just chuck out Theresa May by 500-100 and then we will rescind A50 for a new govt to have a crack at the negotiation?
If legislation is necessary, it can be passed through the Commons in one day if needed - and it hardly seems likely the Lords will delay it either...
The obvious thing I think you are missing is that if we rescind Article 50 then we will be members of the EU, not negotiating for a withdrawal.
If we triggered it again after 6 months, which I think is what you were implying, the EU will either simply put forward the same deal again or tell us just to leave and stop annoying them. I cannot see that changing unless a Euroscpetic group gets to nominate the Commission - even if they do, Selmayr and the entire bureaucracy would have to be sacked as well.
I really do think a lot of people are underestimating Mrs May's determination to end freedom of movement for EU and UK citizens. She will take the country over the cliff rather than give up on that possibility.
I cannot see how we do not go to No Deal from here.
The Labour leadership wants to avoid a referendum at all costs because a Tory-owned No Deal is its absolute priority. May will never compromise on freedom of movement and will not countenance any move by Parliament that puts the possibility of ending it at risk.
The only thing that might change the equation is overwhelming public pressure and I see little sign of that.
Start stocking up.
Well quite, May doesn’t want a vote, her deal will not pass and we’re stuck with her.
I really do think a lot of people are underestimating Mrs May's determination to end freedom of movement for EU and UK citizens. She will take the country over the cliff rather than give up on that possibility.
Good point. Her record at the Home Office demonstrates it.
No Deal, not Remain, is the default. Politics follows the path of least resistance, and too many in the Labour Party see No Deal Brexit as an event that - while it might cause distress to the country - will cause more to the Conservative Party. No Deal, they say, bring it on, for it is the Tories who will be blamed.
The Labour party are surely wrong if they think the blame for a disaster will attach itself neatly to the Tories. There will be plenty of blame to go around, and their voting for triggering A50 will make them at least partly complicit.
But how do we end up with No Deal outcome? Surely if it gets close and people get worried, parliament will just chuck out Theresa May by 500-100 and then we will rescind A50 for a new govt to have a crack at the negotiation?
If legislation is necessary, it can be passed through the Commons in one day if needed - and it hardly seems likely the Lords will delay it either...
No Deal, not Remain, is the default. Politics follows the path of least resistance, and too many in the Labour Party see No Deal Brexit as an event that - while it might cause distress to the country - will cause more to the Conservative Party. No Deal, they say, bring it on, for it is the Tories who will be blamed.
The Labour party are surely wrong if they think the blame for a disaster will attach itself neatly to the Tories. There will be plenty of blame to go around, and their voting for triggering A50 will make them at least partly complicit.
But how do we end up with No Deal outcome? Surely if it gets close and people get worried, parliament will just chuck out Theresa May by 500-100 and then we will rescind A50 for a new govt to have a crack at the negotiation?
If legislation is necessary, it can be passed through the Commons in one day if needed - and it hardly seems likely the Lords will delay it either...
I think you are missing Corbyn. He is the block to that scenario because he is more fundamentally in favour of Leaving than May, Tory rebels will not put him into number ten and the failed coup of 2016, combined with the 2017GE, has cowed Labour's Parliamentary rebels in sufficient numbers.
Corbyn wouldn't be blocking article 50 revocation if it was being pushed through by May instead of no deal.
The scenario given was: "parliament will just chuck out Theresa May by 500-100 and then we will rescind A50 for a new govt to have a crack at the negotiation?" - because May will not abandon her deal. She will try to use the pressure of time to force support for it.
Okay, Corbyn would not oppose article 50 revocation over no deal regardless of who is in charge of parliament.
My hunch is May or enough of the Tory party wouldn't want to crash out with no deal unprepared rather than revoke or extend for a 2nd referendum.
We can revoke unilaterally, the Council needs to agree an extension. The reason No Deal is now the likeliest outcome is that they won't agree an extension, instead just telling us to revoke.
I cannot see how we do not go to No Deal from here.
The Labour leadership wants to avoid a referendum at all costs because a Tory-owned No Deal is its absolute priority. May will never compromise on freedom of movement and will not countenance any move by Parliament that puts the possibility of ending it at risk.
The only thing that might change the equation is overwhelming public pressure and I see little sign of that.
Start stocking up.
The EU Court has said we can unilaterally revoke Brexit. It would be the government's choice to let No Deal happen.
Yep - and I think the government will choose to do that because Labour will do all it can to avoid any other outcome.
No Deal, not Remain, is the default. Politics follows the path of least resistance, and too many in the Labour Party see No Deal Brexit as an event that - while it might cause distress to the country - will cause more to the Conservative Party. No Deal, they say, bring it on, for it is the Tories who will be blamed.
The Labour party are surely wrong if they think the blame for a disaster will attach itself neatly to the Tories. There will be plenty of blame to go around, and their voting for triggering A50 will make them at least partly complicit.
But how do we end up with No Deal outcome? Surely if it gets close and people get worried, parliament will just chuck out Theresa May by 500-100 and then we will rescind A50 for a new govt to have a crack at the negotiation?
If legislation is necessary, it can be passed through the Commons in one day if needed - and it hardly seems likely the Lords will delay it either...
I think you are missing Corbyn. He is the block to that scenario because he is more fundamentally in favour of Leaving than May, Tory rebels will not put him into number ten and the failed coup of 2016, combined with the 2017GE, has cowed Labour's Parliamentary rebels in sufficient numbers.
1) Corbyn doesn't have to become PM for legislation rescinding A50 to pass. 2) There's no way Corbyn would insist on a no deal brexit. He would lose the membership and hence cease to be leader.
Corbyn will insist on becoming PM - rather than supporting rebel Tories who might support a different PM as head of a national unity government. This blocks such a government from being created. This means there is not a government that will bring the A50 legislation to the House. No deal then happens as the default in the absence of any alternative. Corbyn blames the Tories.
I don't he'd do that. But even if he did, there's no way he'd be able to get Labour MPs to stand by while No Deal occurred. Any interim PM would only have the support of the House to rescind A50 and then Corbyn would be able to pass his VONC, leading to a general election. Which is what he wants.
No Deal, not Remain, is the default. Politics follows the path of least resistance, and too many in the Labour Party see No Deal Brexit as an event that - while it might cause distress to the country - will cause more to the Conservative Party. No Deal, they say, bring it on, for it is the Tories who will be blamed.
The Labour party are surely wrong if they think the blame for a disaster will attach itself neatly to the Tories. There will be plenty of blame to go around, and their voting for triggering A50 will make them at least partly complicit.
But how do we end up with No Deal outcome? Surely if it gets close and people get worried, parliament will just chuck out Theresa May by 500-100 and then we will rescind A50 for a new govt to have a crack at the negotiation?
If legislation is necessary, it can be passed through the Commons in one day if needed - and it hardly seems likely the Lords will delay it either...
I think you are missing Corbyn. He is the block to that scenario because he is more fundamentally in favour of Leaving than May, Tory rebels will not put him into number ten and the failed coup of 2016, combined with the 2017GE, has cowed Labour's Parliamentary rebels in sufficient numbers.
Corbyn wouldn't be blocking article 50 revocation if it was being pushed through by May instead of no deal.
The scenario given was: "parliament will just chuck out Theresa May by 500-100 and then we will rescind A50 for a new govt to have a crack at the negotiation?" - because May will not abandon her deal. She will try to use the pressure of time to force support for it.
Okay, Corbyn would not oppose article 50 revocation over no deal regardless of who is in charge of parliament.
My hunch is May or enough of the Tory party wouldn't want to crash out with no deal unprepared rather than revoke or extend for a 2nd referendum.
I thought May would pivot away from her deal for the reasons you give above - but by pulling the vote to protect her deal from its inevitable heavy defeat before Christmas she has acted in a way that changes my mind. It was not the action of a PM prepared to bow to the will of the Commons. If she had been she would have allowed the Commons a vote to express that will.
No Deal, not Remain, is the default. Politics follows the path of least resistance, and too many in the Labour Party see No Deal Brexit as an event that - while it might cause distress to the country - will cause more to the Conservative Party. No Deal, they say, bring it on, for it is the Tories who will be blamed.
The Labour party are surely wrong if they think the blame for a disaster will attach itself neatly to the Tories. There will be plenty of blame to go around, and their voting for triggering A50 will make them at least partly complicit.
But how do we end up with No Deal outcome? Surely if it gets close and people get worried, parliament will just chuck out Theresa May by 500-100 and then we will rescind A50 for a new govt to have a crack at the negotiation?
If legislation is necessary, it can be passed through the Commons in one day if needed - and it hardly seems likely the Lords will delay it either...
I think you are missing Corbyn. He is the block to that scenario because he is more fundamentally in favour of Leaving than May, Tory rebels will not put him into number ten and the failed coup of 2016, combined with the 2017GE, has cowed Labour's Parliamentary rebels in sufficient numbers.
Corbyn wouldn't be blocking article 50 revocation if it was being pushed through by May instead of no deal.
The scenario given was: "parliament will just chuck out Theresa May by 500-100 and then we will rescind A50 for a new govt to have a crack at the negotiation?" - because May will not abandon her deal. She will try to use the pressure of time to force support for it.
Okay, Corbyn would not oppose article 50 revocation over no deal regardless of who is in charge of parliament.
My hunch is May or enough of the Tory party wouldn't want to crash out with no deal unprepared rather than revoke or extend for a 2nd referendum.
We can revoke unilaterally, the Council needs to agree an extension. The reason No Deal is now the likeliest outcome is that they won't agree an extension, instead just telling us to revoke.
Except that a PM faced with crash out would revoke and a Parliament faced with a last minute vote would do the same. The only way you get to no deal is if the PM is disallowed from revoking as an act of government and Parliament for some reason runs out of diary to hold the necessary vote.
No Deal, not Remain, is the default. Politics follows the path of least resistance, and too many in the Labour Party see No Deal Brexit as an event that - while it might cause distress to the country - will cause more to the Conservative Party. No Deal, they say, bring it on, for it is the Tories who will be blamed.
The Labour party are surely wrong if they think the blame for a disaster will attach itself neatly to the Tories. There will be plenty of blame to go around, and their voting for triggering A50 will make them at least partly complicit.
But how do we end up with No Deal outcome? Surely if it gets close and people get worried, parliament will just chuck out Theresa May by 500-100 and then we will rescind A50 for a new govt to have a crack at the negotiation?
If legislation is necessary, it can be passed through the Commons in one day if needed - and it hardly seems likely the Lords will delay it either...
I think you are missing Corbyn. He is the block to that scenario because he is more fundamentally in favour of Leaving than May, Tory rebels will not put him into number ten and the failed coup of 2016, combined with the 2017GE, has cowed Labour's Parliamentary rebels in sufficient numbers.
1) Corbyn doesn't have to become PM for legislation rescinding A50 to pass. 2) There's no way Corbyn would insist on a no deal brexit. He would lose the membership and hence cease to be leader.
Corbyn will insist on becoming PM - rather than supporting rebel Tories who might support a different PM as head of a national unity government. This blocks such a government from being created. This means there is not a government that will bring the A50 legislation to the House. No deal then happens as the default in the absence of any alternative. Corbyn blames the Tories.
I don't he'd do that. But even if he did, there's no way he'd be able to get Labour MPs to stand by while No Deal occurred. Any interim PM would only have the support of the House to rescind A50 and then Corbyn would be able to pass his VONC, leading to a general election. Which is what he wants.
You think that Labour's backbenchers would fly in the face of 30 years of spineless cowardice and finally kick him out in such a scenario?
I cannot see how we do not go to No Deal from here.
The Labour leadership wants to avoid a referendum at all costs because a Tory-owned No Deal is its absolute priority. May will never compromise on freedom of movement and will not countenance any move by Parliament that puts the possibility of ending it at risk.
The only thing that might change the equation is overwhelming public pressure and I see little sign of that.
Start stocking up.
Given you said in the past that the Labour leadership did not want power, whereas clearly they do and Nick has heard from him and others that know him that he voted remain I'm not sure I buy into your Corbyn wants no deal most of all ideas. With the greatest of respect you don't seem to be that great at identifying what actually motivates the left but instead go with a negative impression that suits your biases...
No Deal, not Remain, is the default. Politics follows the path of least resistance, and too many in the Labour Party see No Deal Brexit as an event that - while it might cause distress to the country - will cause more to the Conservative Party. No Deal, they say, bring it on, for it is the Tories who will be blamed.
The Labour party are surely wrong if they think the blame for a disaster will attach itself neatly to the Tories. There will be plenty of blame to go around, and their voting for triggering A50 will make them at least partly complicit.
But how do we end up with No Deal outcome? Surely if it gets close and people get worried, parliament will just chuck out Theresa May by 500-100 and then we will rescind A50 for a new govt to have a crack at the negotiation?
If legislation is necessary, it can be passed through the Commons in one day if needed - and it hardly seems likely the Lords will delay it either...
The obvious thing I think you are missing is that if we rescind Article 50 then we will be members of the EU, not negotiating for a withdrawal.
If we triggered it again after 6 months, which I think is what you were implying, the EU will either simply put forward the same deal again or tell us just to leave and stop annoying them. I cannot see that changing unless a Euroscpetic group gets to nominate the Commission - even if they do, Selmayr and the entire bureaucracy would have to be sacked as well.
Yes that's what I am implying. We would renegotiate with a different PM, with different priorities. The deal the EU has offered is based on what May said she wanted and what her red lines were, and probably also the fact she needed the DUP.
The only thing that will significantly change opinion is actual economic harm. Sadly if that were to happen that will happen after the decision not before.
Who knows it might not be to bad, David Davis said it would be fine.
I really do think a lot of people are underestimating Mrs May's determination to end freedom of movement for EU and UK citizens. She will take the country over the cliff rather than give up on that possibility.
Perhaps that should be the question of the second referendum.
Do you wish to end free movement of people from the EU and give up your right to free movement within the EU?
If people say yes, we know what Brexit means. If they say no, Mrs May is no longer bound by her biggest red line.
Except that a PM faced with crash out would revoke and a Parliament faced with a last minute vote would do the same. The only way you get to no deal is if the PM is disallowed from revoking as an act of government and Parliament for some reason runs out of diary to hold the necessary vote.
Yes, but my point (which you seem to have missed) is that there will not be an EXTENSION to the period now.
No Deal, not Remain, is the default. Politics follows the path of least resistance, and too many in the Labour Party see No Deal Brexit as an event that - while it might cause distress to the country - will cause more to the Conservative Party. No Deal, they say, bring it on, for it is the Tories who will be blamed.
The Labour party are surely wrong if they think the blame for a disaster will attach itself neatly to the Tories. There will be plenty of blame to go around, and their voting for triggering A50 will make them at least partly complicit.
But how do we end up with No Deal outcome? Surely if it gets close and people get worried, parliament will just chuck out Theresa May by 500-100 and then we will rescind A50 for a new govt to have a crack at the negotiation?
If legislation is necessary, it can be passed through the Commons in one day if needed - and it hardly seems likely the Lords will delay it either...
I think you are missing Corbyn. He is the block to that scenario because he is more fundamentally in favour of Leaving than May, Tory rebels will not put him into number ten and the failed coup of 2016, combined with the 2017GE, has cowed Labour's Parliamentary rebels in sufficient numbers.
1) Corbyn doesn't have to become PM for legislation rescinding A50 to pass. 2) There's no way Corbyn would insist on a no deal brexit. He would lose the membership and hence cease to be leader.
Corbyn will insist on becoming PM - rather than supporting rebel Tories who might support a different PM as head of a national unity government. This blocks such a government from being created. This means there is not a government that will bring the A50 legislation to the House. No deal then happens as the default in the absence of any alternative. Corbyn blames the Tories.
I don't he'd do that. But even if he did, there's no way he'd be able to get Labour MPs to stand by while No Deal occurred. Any interim PM would only have the support of the House to rescind A50 and then Corbyn would be able to pass his VONC, leading to a general election. Which is what he wants.
I hope you are right, but I fear that you are not. Hope hasn't had a good time of it in politics recently.
No Deal, not Remain, is the default. Politics follows the path of least resistance, and too many in the Labour Party see No Deal Brexit as an event that - while it might cause distress to the country - will cause more to the Conservative Party. No Deal, they say, bring it on, for it is the Tories who will be blamed.
The Labour party are surely wrong if they think the blame for a disaster will attach itself neatly to the Tories. There will be plenty of blame to go around, and their voting for triggering A50 will make them at least partly complicit.
But how do we end up with No Deal outcome? Surely if it gets close and people get worried, parliament will just chuck out Theresa May by 500-100 and then we will rescind A50 for a new govt to have a crack at the negotiation?
If legislation is necessary, it can be passed through the Commons in one day if needed - and it hardly seems likely the Lords will delay it either...
The obvious thing I think you are missing is that if we rescind Article 50 then we will be members of the EU, not negotiating for a withdrawal.
If we triggered it again after 6 months, which I think is what you were implying, the EU will either simply put forward the same deal again or tell us just to leave and stop annoying them. I cannot see that changing unless a Euroscpetic group gets to nominate the Commission - even if they do, Selmayr and the entire bureaucracy would have to be sacked as well.
May will not rescind Article 50. It's not in her DNA. The window to do that will have gone by sunrise on 30th March, while she is been still doggedly sticking to her Deal. So, Remainers - ball in your court: May's Deal, or Hard Brexit?
I cannot see how we do not go to No Deal from here.
The Labour leadership wants to avoid a referendum at all costs because a Tory-owned No Deal is its absolute priority. May will never compromise on freedom of movement and will not countenance any move by Parliament that puts the possibility of ending it at risk.
The only thing that might change the equation is overwhelming public pressure and I see little sign of that.
Start stocking up.
Given you said in the past that the Labour leadership did not want power, whereas clearly they do and Nick has heard from him and others that know him that he voted remain I'm not sure I buy into your Corbyn wants no deal most of all ideas. With the greatest of respect you don't seem to be that great at identifying what actually motivates the left but instead go with a negative impression that suits your biases...
A No Deal Tory Brexit is Labour's quickest route to power. It also delivers what Corbyn and McDonnell have wanted for decades: the UK out of the EU. What is not to like from their perspective?
I cannot see how we do not go to No Deal from here.
The Labour leadership wants to avoid a referendum at all costs because a Tory-owned No Deal is its absolute priority. May will never compromise on freedom of movement and will not countenance any move by Parliament that puts the possibility of ending it at risk.
The only thing that might change the equation is overwhelming public pressure and I see little sign of that.
Start stocking up.
The EU Court has said we can unilaterally revoke Brexit. It would be the government's choice to let No Deal happen.
Yep - and I think the government will choose to do that because Labour will do all it can to avoid any other outcome.
OK, that's a view, but it would be the Tories choosing No Deal over a People's Vote and over 'Revoke and Remain'. That would be their choice, Labour don't figure in that at all. My view is if they do that their party will split and they may never be in power again.
No Deal, not Remain, is the default. Politics follows the path of least resistance, and too many in the Labour Party see No Deal Brexit as an event that - while it might cause distress to the country - will cause more to the Conservative Party. No Deal, they say, bring it on, for it is the Tories who will be blamed.
The Labour party are surely wrong if they think the blame for a disaster will attach itself neatly to the Tories. There will be plenty of blame to go around, and their voting for triggering A50 will make them at least partly complicit.
But how do we end up with No Deal outcome? Surely if it gets close and people get worried, parliament will just chuck out Theresa May by 500-100 and then we will rescind A50 for a new govt to have a crack at the negotiation?
If legislation is necessary, it can be passed through the Commons in one day if needed - and it hardly seems likely the Lords will delay it either...
The obvious thing I think you are missing is that if we rescind Article 50 then we will be members of the EU, not negotiating for a withdrawal.
If we triggered it again after 6 months, which I think is what you were implying, the EU will either simply put forward the same deal again or tell us just to leave and stop annoying them. I cannot see that changing unless a Euroscpetic group gets to nominate the Commission - even if they do, Selmayr and the entire bureaucracy would have to be sacked as well.
Yes that's what I am implying. We would renegotiate with a different PM, with different priorities. The deal the EU has offered is based on what May said she wanted and what her red lines were, and probably also the fact she needed the DUP.
No we wouldn't, because under such circumstances the EU would certainly not negotiate with us. They will not want to give the idea that you can tie them up in years of endless negotiations that reset every time there is a change of government.
I cannot see how we do not go to No Deal from here.
The Labour leadership wants to avoid a referendum at all costs because a Tory-owned No Deal is its absolute priority. May will never compromise on freedom of movement and will not countenance any move by Parliament that puts the possibility of ending it at risk.
The only thing that might change the equation is overwhelming public pressure and I see little sign of that.
Start stocking up.
Given you said in the past that the Labour leadership did not want power, whereas clearly they do and Nick has heard from him and others that know him that he voted remain I'm not sure I buy into your Corbyn wants no deal most of all ideas. With the greatest of respect you don't seem to be that great at identifying what actually motivates the left but instead go with a negative impression that suits your biases...
Corbyn has the fence so far up his arse, Donald Trump has suggested shipping him to Mexico
No Deal, not Remain, is the default. Politics follows the path of least resistance, and too many in the Labour Party see No Deal Brexit as an event that - while it might cause distress to the country - will cause more to the Conservative Party. No Deal, they say, bring it on, for it is the Tories who will be blamed.
The Labour party are surely wrong if they think the blame for a disaster will attach itself neatly to the Tories. There will be plenty of blame to go around, and their voting for triggering A50 will make them at least partly complicit.
But how do we end up with No Deal outcome? Surely if it gets close and people get worried, parliament will just chuck out Theresa May by 500-100 and then we will rescind A50 for a new govt to have a crack at the negotiation?
If legislation is necessary, it can be passed through the Commons in one day if needed - and it hardly seems likely the Lords will delay it either...
I don't think you are missing anything. Leavers like Robert just haven't processed yet the significance of the CJEU ruling on revocation of A50. Yes no deal is technically the default but we would now de facto have to actively decide to leave with no deal as we can just revoke if we want to.
All Brexit gas gas going for it since at least the GE result is it's inevitability. Which is why must Brexiter are in denial about the CJEU ruling.
The CJEU ruling was politically driven precisely to push the UK towards Remaining.
Not sure that’s true. One of my friends works in a senior position within the ECJ and the EU were lobbying hard for this not to happen on the basis that it would set a precedent for others, in particular Italy. From what I understand, the way A50 was drafted gave the ECJ no real choice though. The EU’s influence has however been felt in the non abuse part of the judgement I suspect (as this wasn’t clear from the drafting either and an interpretation).
The Commission and the UK government were on the same side in the case.
I cannot see how we do not go to No Deal from here.
The Labour leadership wants to avoid a referendum at all costs because a Tory-owned No Deal is its absolute priority. May will never compromise on freedom of movement and will not countenance any move by Parliament that puts the possibility of ending it at risk.
The only thing that might change the equation is overwhelming public pressure and I see little sign of that.
Start stocking up.
The EU Court has said we can unilaterally revoke Brexit. It would be the government's choice to let No Deal happen.
Yep - and I think the government will choose to do that because Labour will do all it can to avoid any other outcome.
I cannot see how we do not go to No Deal from here.
The Labour leadership wants to avoid a referendum at all costs because a Tory-owned No Deal is its absolute priority. May will never compromise on freedom of movement and will not countenance any move by Parliament that puts the possibility of ending it at risk.
The only thing that might change the equation is overwhelming public pressure and I see little sign of that.
Start stocking up.
The EU Court has said we can unilaterally revoke Brexit. It would be the government's choice to let No Deal happen.
Yep - and I think the government will choose to do that because Labour will do all it can to avoid any other outcome.
I was about to type that even these Tories aren't that stupid, but am now sitting here wondering.
No Deal, not Remain, is the default. Politics follows the path of least resistance, and too many in the Labour Party see No Deal Brexit as an event that - while it might cause distress to the country - will cause more to the Conservative Party. No Deal, they say, bring it on, for it is the Tories who will be blamed.
The Labour party are surely wrong if they think the blame for a disaster will attach itself neatly to the Tories. There will be plenty of blame to go around, and their voting for triggering A50 will make them at least partly complicit.
But how do we end up with No Deal outcome? Surely if it gets close and people get worried, parliament will just chuck out Theresa May by 500-100 and then we will rescind A50 for a new govt to have a crack at the negotiation?
If legislation is necessary, it can be passed through the Commons in one day if needed - and it hardly seems likely the Lords will delay it either...
I think you are missing Corbyn. He is the block to that scenario because he is more fundamentally in favour of Leaving than May, Tory rebels will not put him into number ten and the failed coup of 2016, combined with the 2017GE, has cowed Labour's Parliamentary rebels in sufficient numbers.
1) Corbyn doesn't have to become PM for legislation rescinding A50 to pass. 2) There's no way Corbyn would insist on a no deal brexit. He would lose the membership and hence cease to be leader.
Corbyn will insist on becoming PM - rather than supporting rebel Tories who might support a different PM as head of a national unity government. This blocks such a government from being created. This means there is not a government that will bring the A50 legislation to the House. No deal then happens as the default in the absence of any alternative. Corbyn blames the Tories.
I don't he'd do that. But even if he did, there's no way he'd be able to get Labour MPs to stand by while No Deal occurred. Any interim PM would only have the support of the House to rescind A50 and then Corbyn would be able to pass his VONC, leading to a general election. Which is what he wants.
You think that Labour's backbenchers would fly in the face of 30 years of spineless cowardice and finally kick him out in such a scenario?
All I can say is that I admire your optimism.
They would rebel, they can't kick him out with a no confidence vote as they already discovered. In any case, if Corbyn tries to whip MPs against preventing 'No deal' he is finished.
No Deal, not Remain, is the default. Politics follows the path of least resistance, and too many in the Labour Party see No Deal Brexit as an event that - while it might cause distress to the country - will cause more to the Conservative Party. No Deal, they say, bring it on, for it is the Tories who will be blamed.
The Labour party are surely wrong if they think the blame for a disaster will attach itself neatly to the Tories. There will be plenty of blame to go around, and their voting for triggering A50 will make them at least partly complicit.
But how do we end up with No Deal outcome? Surely if it gets close and people get worried, parliament will just chuck out Theresa May by 500-100 and then we will rescind A50 for a new govt to have a crack at the negotiation?
If legislation is necessary, it can be passed through the Commons in one day if needed - and it hardly seems likely the Lords will delay it either...
The obvious thing I think you are missing is that if we rescind Article 50 then we will be members of the EU, not negotiating for a withdrawal.
If we triggered it again after 6 months, which I think is what you were implying, the EU will either simply put forward the same deal again or tell us just to leave and stop annoying them. I cannot see that changing unless a Euroscpetic group gets to nominate the Commission - even if they do, Selmayr and the entire bureaucracy would have to be sacked as well.
Yes that's what I am implying. We would renegotiate with a different PM, with different priorities. The deal the EU has offered is based on what May said she wanted and what her red lines were, and probably also the fact she needed the DUP.
At this point I'm worried May might have just drained all goodwill left to negotiate they have. They did say they would extend article 50 for a referendum or an election and obviously Labour don't have the same red lines so it would be easier to negotiate a closer and different relationship than previously but would they offer enough of an extension to make that possible?
I suppose there is a small chance if the government got to work quickly and negotiations went well in the original extension period they might be happy to extend again if its going somewhere. It isn't out of the question but definitely not a given considering how much time has elapsed.
No Deal, not Remain, is the default. Politics follows the path of least resistance, and too many in the Labour Party see No Deal Brexit as an event that - while it might cause distress to the country - will cause more to the Conservative Party. No Deal, they say, bring it on, for it is the Tories who will be blamed.
The Labour party are surely wrong if they think the blame for a disaster will attach itself neatly to the Tories. There will be plenty of blame to go around, and their voting for triggering A50 will make them at least partly complicit.
But how do we end up with No Deal outcome? Surely if it gets close and people get worried, parliament will just chuck out Theresa May by 500-100 and then we will rescind A50 for a new govt to have a crack at the negotiation?
If legislation is necessary, it can be passed through the Commons in one day if needed - and it hardly seems likely the Lords will delay it either...
I think you are missing Corbyn. He is the block to that scenario because he is more fundamentally in favour of Leaving than May, Tory rebels will not put him into number ten and the failed coup of 2016, combined with the 2017GE, has cowed Labour's Parliamentary rebels in sufficient numbers.
Corbyn wouldn't be blocking article 50 revocation if it was being pushed through by May instead of no deal.
The scenario given was: "parliament will just chuck out Theresa May by 500-100 and then we will rescind A50 for a new govt to have a crack at the negotiation?" - because May will not abandon her deal. She will try to use the pressure of time to force support for it.
Okay, Corbyn would not oppose article 50 revocation over no deal regardless of who is in charge of parliament.
My hunch is May or enough of the Tory party wouldn't want to crash out with no deal unprepared rather than revoke or extend for a 2nd referendum.
I thought May would pivot away from her deal for the reasons you give above - but by pulling the vote to protect her deal from its inevitable heavy defeat before Christmas she has acted in a way that changes my mind. It was not the action of a PM prepared to bow to the will of the Commons. If she had been she would have allowed the Commons a vote to express that will.
Unless she reasoned that having her life's work overwhelmingly rejected like that might bring about her end?
Incidentally, has anyone worked out what Mrs May is asking the EU for?
AIUI, we want to stop free movement, having to accept rules being made for our trade by the EU and we want to be able to make trade deals with the rest of the world (How does EU membership do that?) and we want to stop non British fishermen fishing in ‘our’ waters BUT we also want to be able to trade freely with other EU countries, without border controls, we want our standards to be accepted without consultation, we want our financial institutions to operate without let or hindrance across the EU and we want our fishermen to be able to sell their catch in the EU.
Simples.
A pedant writes: we want to stop free movement without stopping immigration. This is a continuation of Theresa May's earlier policy of being hostile to immigrants while also welcoming them.
I cannot see how we do not go to No Deal from here.
The Labour leadership wants to avoid a referendum at all costs because a Tory-owned No Deal is its absolute priority. May will never compromise on freedom of movement and will not countenance any move by Parliament that puts the possibility of ending it at risk.
The only thing that might change the equation is overwhelming public pressure and I see little sign of that.
Start stocking up.
Given you said in the past that the Labour leadership did not want power, whereas clearly they do and Nick has heard from him and others that know him that he voted remain I'm not sure I buy into your Corbyn wants no deal most of all ideas. With the greatest of respect you don't seem to be that great at identifying what actually motivates the left but instead go with a negative impression that suits your biases...
A No Deal Tory Brexit is Labour's quickest route to power. It also delivers what Corbyn and McDonnell have wanted for decades: the UK out of the EU. What is not to like from their perspective?
I suspect some of their outriders fancy a bit of revolutionary chaos.
I cannot see how we do not go to No Deal from here.
The Labour leadership wants to avoid a referendum at all costs because a Tory-owned No Deal is its absolute priority. May will never compromise on freedom of movement and will not countenance any move by Parliament that puts the possibility of ending it at risk.
The only thing that might change the equation is overwhelming public pressure and I see little sign of that.
Start stocking up.
Given you said in the past that the Labour leadership did not want power, whereas clearly they do and Nick has heard from him and others that know him that he voted remain I'm not sure I buy into your Corbyn wants no deal most of all ideas. With the greatest of respect you don't seem to be that great at identifying what actually motivates the left but instead go with a negative impression that suits your biases...
A No Deal Tory Brexit is Labour's quickest route to power. It also delivers what Corbyn and McDonnell have wanted for decades: the UK out of the EU. What is not to like from their perspective?
May's problem is that a big chunk of her party is more obsessed with crash-out Brexit than it is with stopping a decade of Corbynism.
I cannot see how we do not go to No Deal from here.
The Labour leadership wants to avoid a referendum at all costs because a Tory-owned No Deal is its absolute priority. May will never compromise on freedom of movement and will not countenance any move by Parliament that puts the possibility of ending it at risk.
The only thing that might change the equation is overwhelming public pressure and I see little sign of that.
Start stocking up.
Given you said in the past that the Labour leadership did not want power, whereas clearly they do and Nick has heard from him and others that know him that he voted remain I'm not sure I buy into your Corbyn wants no deal most of all ideas. With the greatest of respect you don't seem to be that great at identifying what actually motivates the left but instead go with a negative impression that suits your biases...
A No Deal Tory Brexit is Labour's quickest route to power. It also delivers what Corbyn and McDonnell have wanted for decades: the UK out of the EU. What is not to like from their perspective?
That 70% of their voters wanted to Remain, but Corbyn won't have stopped us leaving. And those 70% (plus a fair few more % who wanted May's deal) will see Corbyn could have abstained at least and stopped the worst option - Hard Brexit. That he didn't stop either might just suggest he is less Magic Grandpa, more Tommy Cooper. A new, energetic LibDem leader could make hay.
I really do think a lot of people are underestimating Mrs May's determination to end freedom of movement for EU and UK citizens. She will take the country over the cliff rather than give up on that possibility.
Yep. She is obsessed with that as the last of her red lines.
In her mind keeping FOM is the bad deal that is worse than No Deal.
I cannot see how we do not go to No Deal from here.
The Labour leadership wants to avoid a referendum at all costs because a Tory-owned No Deal is its absolute priority. May will never compromise on freedom of movement and will not countenance any move by Parliament that puts the possibility of ending it at risk.
The only thing that might change the equation is overwhelming public pressure and I see little sign of that.
Start stocking up.
Given you said in the past that the Labour leadership did not want power, whereas clearly they do and Nick has heard from him and others that know him that he voted remain I'm not sure I buy into your Corbyn wants no deal most of all ideas. With the greatest of respect you don't seem to be that great at identifying what actually motivates the left but instead go with a negative impression that suits your biases...
A No Deal Tory Brexit is Labour's quickest route to power. It also delivers what Corbyn and McDonnell have wanted for decades: the UK out of the EU. What is not to like from their perspective?
May's problem is that a big chunk of her party is more obsessed with crash-out Brexit than it is with stopping a decade of Corbynism.
And, Labour MPs are helping facilitate that as well.
Oh Dear, not happy that she has overseen the Art School destruction debacle she is now trumpeting her unionist views under the sad impression that she is witty.
I cannot see how we do not go to No Deal from here.
The Labour leadership wants to avoid a referendum at all costs because a Tory-owned No Deal is its absolute priority. May will never compromise on freedom of movement and will not countenance any move by Parliament that puts the possibility of ending it at risk.
The only thing that might change the equation is overwhelming public pressure and I see little sign of that.
Start stocking up.
Given you said in the past that the Labour leadership did not want power, whereas clearly they do and Nick has heard from him and others that know him that he voted remain I'm not sure I buy into your Corbyn wants no deal most of all ideas. With the greatest of respect you don't seem to be that great at identifying what actually motivates the left but instead go with a negative impression that suits your biases...
A No Deal Tory Brexit is Labour's quickest route to power. It also delivers what Corbyn and McDonnell have wanted for decades: the UK out of the EU. What is not to like from their perspective?
That 70% of their voters wanted to Remain, but Corbyn won't have stopped us leaving. And those 70% (plus a fair few more % who wanted May's deal) will see Corbyn could have abstained at least and stopped the worst option - Hard Brexit. That he didn't stop either might just suggest he is less Magic Grandpa, more Tommy Cooper. A new, energetic LibDem leader could make hay.
Either way, the Tories lose. The way our system works the LibDems could easily gain most votes and Labour most seats. The question is whether there is a shred of rationality within the Tory party that can foresee the potential for a re-run of 1997 before the final decision point?
I cannot see how we do not go to No Deal from here.
The Labour leadership wants to avoid a referendum at all costs because a Tory-owned No Deal is its absolute priority. May will never compromise on freedom of movement and will not countenance any move by Parliament that puts the possibility of ending it at risk.
The only thing that might change the equation is overwhelming public pressure and I see little sign of that.
Start stocking up.
Given you said in the past that the Labour leadership did not want power, whereas clearly they do and Nick has heard from him and others that know him that he voted remain I'm not sure I buy into your Corbyn wants no deal most of all ideas. With the greatest of respect you don't seem to be that great at identifying what actually motivates the left but instead go with a negative impression that suits your biases...
A No Deal Tory Brexit is Labour's quickest route to power. It also delivers what Corbyn and McDonnell have wanted for decades: the UK out of the EU. What is not to like from their perspective?
I suspect some of their outriders fancy a bit of revolutionary chaos.
The German Communists had a slogan that was something like, "First Hitler, then us." It didn't end well for them.
The Conservatives are supposed to be about good economic governance. --> even as the economy is going well, they're trashing that reputation on the altar of Brexit.
Labour are supposed to be about being good for people. --> by risking the economic chaos of no deal that will hurt real people, by being in the grip of interest groups, and by having an anti-Semite in charge, they're trashing that reputation.
Lib Dems are supposed to be a reasonable middle ground. --> they're not trashing that reputation as they're invisible, and the ones that do offer suggestions are wildly unrealistic.
The DUP are supposed to want to keep NI in the UK. --> they're risking exactly the opposite.
Only the SNP seem to be doing anything like their traditional role. Then again, it's quite easy for them given their situation (especially the Scottish vote in the EU ref).
Ken Clarke looks OK
Oh, there are certainly individual politicians on all sides who seem to be sensible and pragmatic. Unfortunately they are in a minority, and being dogmatic and silly (e.g. the ERGers or those remainers calling for a second referendum) produce better media.
"So, Mr Clarke, what do you think of the deal?"
"Well, it's not where I'd ideally be, but given where we are, it seems a sensible route forward."
"And you, Boris?"
"Well, cripes, it's obviously bloody awful. It's obvious to any fool that the deal is hideous, the worst possible of all worlds, and if I'd been anywhere near power for the last two years then it would never have happened. I'd rather we be able to stop those fuzzy-wuzzies from coming in, keep all our fisheries, trade with the EU under existing terms and conditions, have no border controls, rule over them (as is our British right) and basically SOVERIGNTY."
"Isn't that wanting the best of both worlds and unachievable?"
"Well, that's just what I'd expect the anti-Brexit doom-mongers of the BBC to say. Do you believe in this country or not?" Oh, and can you smell that unicorn flatulence in the air?"
I really do think a lot of people are underestimating Mrs May's determination to end freedom of movement for EU and UK citizens. She will take the country over the cliff rather than give up on that possibility.
Yep. She is obsessed with that as the last of her red lines.
In her mind keeping FOM is the bad deal that is worse than No Deal.
Brace! Brace! Brace!
Why don't we put FoM to a #peoplesvote then? See how popular it really is with the country.
I cannot see how we do not go to No Deal from here.
The Labour leadership wants to avoid a referendum at all costs because a Tory-owned No Deal is its absolute priority. May will never compromise on freedom of movement and will not countenance any move by Parliament that puts the possibility of ending it at risk.
The only thing that might change the equation is overwhelming public pressure and I see little sign of that.
Start stocking up.
Given you said in the past that the Labour leadership did not want power, whereas clearly they do and Nick has heard from him and others that know him that he voted remain I'm not sure I buy into your Corbyn wants no deal most of all ideas. With the greatest of respect you don't seem to be that great at identifying what actually motivates the left but instead go with a negative impression that suits your biases...
A No Deal Tory Brexit is Labour's quickest route to power. It also delivers what Corbyn and McDonnell have wanted for decades: the UK out of the EU. What is not to like from their perspective?
Did you miss the bit about Nick saying he and others told him he voted remain?
Did you then read the bit about being bad at identifying what motivates the left but instead go with a negative impression that suits your biases?
Because you displayed both in the post. What evil plans the nefarious left are up to in your head does not line up with reality. Much the same as the crazy left wingers who think all Blairites are evil always assume the worst.
In the interests of breaking this mould I will assume you have done the above out of trolling rather than convincing yourself because it suits you.
I cannot see how we do not go to No Deal from here.
The Labour leadership wants to avoid a referendum at all costs because a Tory-owned No Deal is its absolute priority. May will never compromise on freedom of movement and will not countenance any move by Parliament that puts the possibility of ending it at risk.
The only thing that might change the equation is overwhelming public pressure and I see little sign of that.
Start stocking up.
Given you said in the past that the Labour leadership did not want power, whereas clearly they do and Nick has heard from him and others that know him that he voted remain I'm not sure I buy into your Corbyn wants no deal most of all ideas. With the greatest of respect you don't seem to be that great at identifying what actually motivates the left but instead go with a negative impression that suits your biases...
Corbyn has the fence so far up his arse, Donald Trump has suggested shipping him to Mexico
A General Election solves nothing.
I wasn't calling for an election in that post. It was saying that Labour would prefer revoking article 50 to no deal.
I cannot see how we do not go to No Deal from here.
The Labour leadership wants to avoid a referendum at all costs because a Tory-owned No Deal is its absolute priority. May will never compromise on freedom of movement and will not countenance any move by Parliament that puts the possibility of ending it at risk.
The only thing that might change the equation is overwhelming public pressure and I see little sign of that.
Start stocking up.
Given you said in the past that the Labour leadership did not want power, whereas clearly they do and Nick has heard from him and others that know him that he voted remain I'm not sure I buy into your Corbyn wants no deal most of all ideas. With the greatest of respect you don't seem to be that great at identifying what actually motivates the left but instead go with a negative impression that suits your biases...
A No Deal Tory Brexit is Labour's quickest route to power. It also delivers what Corbyn and McDonnell have wanted for decades: the UK out of the EU. What is not to like from their perspective?
I suspect some of their outriders fancy a bit of revolutionary chaos.
The German Communists had a slogan that was something like, "First Hitler, then us." It didn't end well for them.
Even the Tories aren't going to abolish all future elections.
I cannot see how we do not go to No Deal from here.
The Labour leadership wants to avoid a referendum at all costs because a Tory-owned No Deal is its absolute priority. May will never compromise on freedom of movement and will not countenance any move by Parliament that puts the possibility of ending it at risk.
The only thing that might change the equation is overwhelming public pressure and I see little sign of that.
Start stocking up.
Given you said in the past that the Labour leadership did not want power, whereas clearly they do and Nick has heard from him and others that know him that he voted remain I'm not sure I buy into your Corbyn wants no deal most of all ideas. With the greatest of respect you don't seem to be that great at identifying what actually motivates the left but instead go with a negative impression that suits your biases...
A No Deal Tory Brexit is Labour's quickest route to power. It also delivers what Corbyn and McDonnell have wanted for decades: the UK out of the EU. What is not to like from their perspective?
I suspect some of their outriders fancy a bit of revolutionary chaos.
The German Communists had a slogan that was something like, "First Hitler, then us." It didn't end well for them.
I don’t have that much to do with my CLP these days, but on FB it’s the ex communists pushing hardest against a second vote. The wishy washy middle of road Corbynites say nothing, the old school Labour and right wing want a vote.
May fights is a terrible outcome for the Tories. They continue to fight over Brexit which dominates 100% of the political agenda; they continue to be led by a lame duck leader whom no one wants to lead them in the next election because of her appalling campaigning skills and total detachment from people’s lives; rivals spend all their time jockeying for position as power and authority drains from May; Hammond continues as Chancellor solely concerned with blocking no deal preparation whilst the economy deteriorates and investment goes elsewhere and all this serves to make the most hard left and incompetent Labour leadership since Foot look half way credible.
And the most popular politician in the Country
What's Nicola Sturgeon got to do with it?
How are her ratings v Ruth - I really do not know the answer which surprises me somewhat
Who is this Ruth you speak of , never seen never heard, former sockpuppet of London, they have run out of Buffalo and tanks for her.
At this point I'm worried May might have just drained all goodwill left to negotiate they have. They did say they would extend article 50 for a referendum or an election and obviously Labour don't have the same red lines so it would be easier to negotiate a closer and different relationship than previously but would they offer enough of an extension to make that possible?
I suppose there is a small chance if the government got to work quickly and negotiations went well in the original extension period they might be happy to extend again if its going somewhere. It isn't out of the question but definitely not a given considering how much time has elapsed.
May has drained her goodwill, and probably has no credibility left in Brussels that she can get anything they offer her through parliament. But a new leader and new negotiation would be completely different, and at the end of the day, the EU don't want No Deal either.
It's not about the EU offering an extension, under their rules, we would have reset the clock. Whenever we restart it, we would get 2 years again. At least that's my understanding.
At this point I'm worried May might have just drained all goodwill left to negotiate they have. They did say they would extend article 50 for a referendum or an election and obviously Labour don't have the same red lines so it would be easier to negotiate a closer and different relationship than previously but would they offer enough of an extension to make that possible?
I suppose there is a small chance if the government got to work quickly and negotiations went well in the original extension period they might be happy to extend again if its going somewhere. It isn't out of the question but definitely not a given considering how much time has elapsed.
May has drained her goodwill, and probably has no credibility left in Brussels that she can get anything they offer her through parliament. But a new leader and new negotiation would be completely different, and at the end of the day, the EU don't want No Deal either.
It's not about the EU offering an extension, under their rules, we would have reset the clock. Whenever we restart it, we would get 2 years again. At least that's my understanding.
I don't understand that an agreed extension would work that way
I cannot see how we do not go to No Deal from here.
The Labour leadership wants to avoid a referendum at all costs because a Tory-owned No Deal is its absolute priority. May will never compromise on freedom of movement and will not countenance any move by Parliament that puts the possibility of ending it at risk.
The only thing that might change the equation is overwhelming public pressure and I see little sign of that.
Start stocking up.
The EU Court has said we can unilaterally revoke Brexit. It would be the government's choice to let No Deal happen.
Yep - and I think the government will choose to do that because Labour will do all it can to avoid any other outcome.
If Labour want to avoid that outcome then they could back the deal, with amendments or conditions if needs be on future trade arrangements or voting.
Same goes for the ERG. They are both being supremely irresponsible.
No deal please. Apparently on the EU side they're fine and prepared. I'm sure it will not present France with any issues, it's not like they're a fractious bunch who take to the streets at the drop of a hat is it? And I'm sure they won't miss that £39bn either. Let's just prepare as best we can, and get on with it.
It was a clever move by whoever started the rumour about Mrs May standing down within 12 months, because I reckon that may have swung 10 or 15 votes in her favour yesterday. It turns out today it wasn't true and she's only saying she'll stand down "before the next general election".
At this point anyone who actually believe's a word Mrs May says is really just playing along with her and looking for an excuse to vote her way.
Gin, you are talking Tory MP's , they need to be extremely thick to get selected and only teh thickest make it to the trough.
Arriving at Valletta airport there were three entry doors. Shengen EU/EEC Other. Speaking to several people before the closing ceremony for this years European City of Culture I suspect if the British Leavers could put some context what this wonderful European entity is all about they would have seen things differently and probably wanted to have gone in more wholeheartedly.
As it is I really feel the reputation of the English in particular has taken a huge hit and one which will take a long time to recover from. Rather like Trump has tarnished many values felt about Americans this has done the same to the British though moreso because our reputation started at a higher level
I cannot see how we do not go to No Deal from here.
The Labour leadership wants to avoid a referendum at all costs because a Tory-owned No Deal is its absolute priority. May will never compromise on freedom of movement and will not countenance any move by Parliament that puts the possibility of ending it at risk.
The only thing that might change the equation is overwhelming public pressure and I see little sign of that.
Start stocking up.
Given you said in the past that the Labour leadership did not want power, whereas clearly they do and Nick has heard from him and others that know him that he voted remain I'm not sure I buy into your Corbyn wants no deal most of all ideas. With the greatest of respect you don't seem to be that great at identifying what actually motivates the left but instead go with a negative impression that suits your biases...
Corbyn has the fence so far up his arse, Donald Trump has suggested shipping him to Mexico
A General Election solves nothing.
I wasn't calling for an election in that post. It was saying that Labour would prefer revoking article 50 to no deal.
Corbyn and co have said nothing. Their position allows all of us to read what we want. That was very clever until this week. He has to climb off the fence and offer a clear alternative on Brexit. Not an election, or any other route to an alternative, and actual workable plan. He has said nothing on revoking A50. Nothing.
I cannot see how we do not go to No Deal from here.
The Labour leadership wants to avoid a referendum at all costs because a Tory-owned No Deal is its absolute priority. May will never compromise on freedom of movement and will not countenance any move by Parliament that puts the possibility of ending it at risk.
The only thing that might change the equation is overwhelming public pressure and I see little sign of that.
Start stocking up.
Given you said in the past that the Labour leadership did not want power, whereas clearly they do and Nick has heard from him and others that know him that he voted remain I'm not sure I buy into your Corbyn wants no deal most of all ideas. With the greatest of respect you don't seem to be that great at identifying what actually motivates the left but instead go with a negative impression that suits your biases...
A No Deal Tory Brexit is Labour's quickest route to power. It also delivers what Corbyn and McDonnell have wanted for decades: the UK out of the EU. What is not to like from their perspective?
Did you miss the bit about Nick saying he and others told him he voted remain?
Did you then read the bit about being bad at identifying what motivates the left but instead go with a negative impression that suits your biases?
Because you displayed both in the post. What evil plans the nefarious left are up to in your head does not line up with reality. Much the same as the crazy left wingers who think all Blairites are evil always assume the worst.
In the interests of breaking this mould I will assume you have done the above out of trolling rather than convincing yourself because it suits you.
Jeremy Corbyn has said many things that are not true.
What motivates the far left is the creation of conditions that will see the proletariat rise up to take power. If you do not understand this then you have not been paying attention to anything the far left has said and done for the last 50 years.
A No Deal Tory Brexit is beyond its wildest dreams. And it is three months away.
I cannot see how we do not go to No Deal from here.
The Labour leadership wants to avoid a referendum at all costs because a Tory-owned No Deal is its absolute priority. May will never compromise on freedom of movement and will not countenance any move by Parliament that puts the possibility of ending it at risk.
The only thing that might change the equation is overwhelming public pressure and I see little sign of that.
Start stocking up.
Given you said in the past that the Labour leadership did not want power, whereas clearly they do and Nick has heard from him and others that know him that he voted remain I'm not sure I buy into your Corbyn wants no deal most of all ideas. With the greatest of respect you don't seem to be that great at identifying what actually motivates the left but instead go with a negative impression that suits your biases...
A No Deal Tory Brexit is Labour's quickest route to power. It also delivers what Corbyn and McDonnell have wanted for decades: the UK out of the EU. What is not to like from their perspective?
If you're so confident, how about a bet?
Corbyn can't allow a no-deal Brexit because the Labour party membership will kick him out.
Mrs May negotiated a deal that depends on the EU playing nice guy and allowing us to leave at some time in the future. Why would they? Cui Bono. This is business, not a social event. The UK leaving will cost them money and sends out a message to other countries with a growing Eurosceptic outlook.
I suspect she is a Remainer at heart and trusts those nice, cuddly people in Brussels. She is asking for a legal instrument of some sort to ensure it will be possible to leave. She won't get one. Why would they agree to that when they hope that intransigence will produce a second referendum or revocation of Art 50?
From this position, there is no way Labour would get any different deal.
The EU cannot offer anything definitive on FOM and survive in its present form. It is inherently unstable until it forms a true federal union. It cannot go back and survive in its present form. A trading union only is not on offer.
Comments
And it’s a bit rich for the ERGers to complain about intemperate language.
It was a pretty silly thing to say, even if to some extent true.
And it is an illustration that emotion rather than reason is motivating a large number of MPs now, which is why the impasse is likely to continue.
I don't think so.
Although Nick is a far better person to ask just my guess.
Edit: I imagine Labour party voters wouldn't be too happy either...
But how do we end up with No Deal outcome? Surely if it gets close and people get worried, parliament will just chuck out Theresa May by 500-100 and then we will rescind A50 for a new govt to have a crack at the negotiation?
If legislation is necessary, it can be passed through the Commons in one day if needed - and it hardly seems likely the Lords will delay it either...
https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld200809/ldselect/ldconst/116/11604.htm
Or am I missing something very obvious?
All Brexit gas gas going for it since at least the GE result is it's inevitability. Which is why must Brexiter are in denial about the CJEU ruling.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/07/04/whos-blame-brexit-going-badly
Government and Parliament cannot resolve this.
Ashcroft polling shows that Remainers hate Mays Deal even more than Leavers. There simply is no compromise that all can agree on:
https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2018/12/lord-ashcroft-my-new-brexit-poll-people-are-tipping-further-away-from-mays-deal.html
--> even as the economy is going well, they're trashing that reputation on the altar of Brexit.
Labour are supposed to be about being good for people.
--> by risking the economic chaos of no deal that will hurt real people, by being in the grip of interest groups, and by having an anti-Semite in charge, they're trashing that reputation.
Lib Dems are supposed to be a reasonable middle ground.
--> they're not trashing that reputation as they're invisible, and the ones that do offer suggestions are wildly unrealistic.
The DUP are supposed to want to keep NI in the UK.
--> they're risking exactly the opposite.
Only the SNP seem to be doing anything like their traditional role. Then again, it's quite easy for them given their situation (especially the Scottish vote in the EU ref).
The one thing that we should all be able to agree on is that this saga has shown that Parliament shouldn't put an option to the people that it doesn't want to implement.
From this it follows that if Parliament can't accept leaving with the deal and can't accept leaving with no deal then it must revoke off its own bat.
Simples.
Clearly no deal and any deal to leave the EU is acceptable to the majority of members.
Which isn't to say your wrong but I would suspect that a lot of those who would pick out Labour to blame are the type to be anti Labour to start with without much blame coming from those who would consider voting or actually vote Labour.
Mrs May's hope that by letting time pass without much happening will make her plan the only alternative to a No Deal Brexit cannot now work. Her best bet would be to have a Deal/Remain referendum where she stands a chance of winning. To get to March without things having been decided now means that the real choice will be Deal or 'Revoke and Remain'.
No sane government will let the UK exit with No Deal and if her Deal is still wildly unpopular then they will have to revoke and remain. It would be better for her to take her chance and get the electorate's backing for her Deal or Remain.
2) There's no way Corbyn would insist on a no deal brexit. He would lose the membership and hence cease to be leader.
Agree with all of this. I would personally take May’s deal but if the HoC is too stupid and useless to play ball then a referendum is the only practical option. The politicians should reap the whirlwind here but you need a plausible candidate for PM to make that a positive outcome though.
In particular May and the Tories need to have the referendum forced upon them by the parliamentary arithmetic, since any sign of actively pursuing it would be career limiting. May herself has of course just limited her career, so she might now be a tad more liberated, although she will still fret over her entry in the history books.
Bless.
Angela Rayner was making the point on QT last night that after the last GE Labour had offered to discuss the How of Leaving with the Government and had been firmly rebuffed.
The Labour leadership wants to avoid a referendum at all costs because a Tory-owned No Deal is its absolute priority. May will never compromise on freedom of movement and will not countenance any move by Parliament that puts the possibility of ending it at risk.
The only thing that might change the equation is overwhelming public pressure and I see little sign of that.
Start stocking up.
My hunch is May or enough of the Tory party wouldn't want to crash out with no deal unprepared rather than revoke or extend for a 2nd referendum.
Btw - we have an outstanding bet (5-1) for 25 quid on Corbyn becoming PM within six months of the next General election.
If we triggered it again after 6 months, which I think is what you were implying, the EU will either simply put forward the same deal again or tell us just to leave and stop annoying them. I cannot see that changing unless a Euroscpetic group gets to nominate the Commission - even if they do, Selmayr and the entire bureaucracy would have to be sacked as well.
So brace, brace, brace.
But even if he did, there's no way he'd be able to get Labour MPs to stand by while No Deal occurred. Any interim PM would only have the support of the House to rescind A50 and then Corbyn would be able to pass his VONC, leading to a general election. Which is what he wants.
All I can say is that I admire your optimism.
Who knows it might not be to bad, David Davis said it would be fine.
Do you wish to end free movement of people from the EU and give up your right to free movement within the EU?
If people say yes, we know what Brexit means. If they say no, Mrs May is no longer bound by her biggest red line.
Now that's a "#peoplesvote" I can get behind...
My view is if they do that their party will split and they may never be in power again.
A General Election solves nothing.
I suppose there is a small chance if the government got to work quickly and negotiations went well in the original extension period they might be happy to extend again if its going somewhere. It isn't out of the question but definitely not a given considering how much time has elapsed.
In her mind keeping FOM is the bad deal that is worse than No Deal.
Brace! Brace! Brace!
Not this deal.
Therefore no deal.
"So, Mr Clarke, what do you think of the deal?"
"Well, it's not where I'd ideally be, but given where we are, it seems a sensible route forward."
"And you, Boris?"
"Well, cripes, it's obviously bloody awful. It's obvious to any fool that the deal is hideous, the worst possible of all worlds, and if I'd been anywhere near power for the last two years then it would never have happened. I'd rather we be able to stop those fuzzy-wuzzies from coming in, keep all our fisheries, trade with the EU under existing terms and conditions, have no border controls, rule over them (as is our British right) and basically SOVERIGNTY."
"Isn't that wanting the best of both worlds and unachievable?"
"Well, that's just what I'd expect the anti-Brexit doom-mongers of the BBC to say. Do you believe in this country or not?" Oh, and can you smell that unicorn flatulence in the air?"
Did you then read the bit about being bad at identifying what motivates the left but instead go with a negative impression that suits your biases?
Because you displayed both in the post. What evil plans the nefarious left are up to in your head does not line up with reality. Much the same as the crazy left wingers who think all Blairites are evil always assume the worst.
In the interests of breaking this mould I will assume you have done the above out of trolling rather than convincing yourself because it suits you.
It's not about the EU offering an extension, under their rules, we would have reset the clock. Whenever we restart it, we would get 2 years again. At least that's my understanding.
If Labour want to avoid that outcome then they could back the deal, with amendments or conditions if needs be on future trade arrangements or voting.
Same goes for the ERG. They are both being supremely irresponsible.
As it is I really feel the reputation of the English in particular has taken a huge hit and one which will take a long time to recover from. Rather like Trump has tarnished many values felt about Americans this has done the same to the British though moreso because our reputation started at a higher level
What motivates the far left is the creation of conditions that will see the proletariat rise up to take power. If you do not understand this then you have not been paying attention to anything the far left has said and done for the last 50 years.
A No Deal Tory Brexit is beyond its wildest dreams. And it is three months away.
Corbyn can't allow a no-deal Brexit because the Labour party membership will kick him out.
I suspect she is a Remainer at heart and trusts those nice, cuddly people in Brussels. She is asking for a legal instrument of some sort to ensure it will be possible to leave. She won't get one. Why would they agree to that when they hope that intransigence will produce a second referendum or revocation of Art 50?
From this position, there is no way Labour would get any different deal.
The EU cannot offer anything definitive on FOM and survive in its present form. It is inherently unstable until it forms a true federal union. It cannot go back and survive in its present form. A trading union only is not on offer.