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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. May fights on – so what now?

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  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,159
    edited December 2018
    Very supportive comments for TM from the Luxembourg PM who hits out at the mps trying to obstruct a good deal for their own purposes
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Philip Collins has a cunning plan for May to do a deal with Lab moderate remainers for a 2nd vote: her deal vs remain.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/163188a2-fef4-11e8-92e0-7fb8092617eb

    Very much doubt May has it in her to be so bold. And he fails to say what happens if her deal wins and then HoC again doesn't pass it. I suppose the referendum could be made binding - can that be done?

    Why is there the assumption that the second referendum doesn't have WTO on the ballot paper?
    Because no sane politician or sensible government would or could afford to put it forward.
    But Leave Means Leave (or some other group) will take the electoral commission to court as soon as the question is revealed without WTO Brexit on the ballot?

    What if the "enemies of the people" side with the people and say WTO must be on the ballot?

    Would't that be delicious. :D
    Parliament decides what the referendum choice is; the Commission just confirms the wording of the statements on offer.
    OK so Leave Means Leave will take the electoral commission AND the government to court to get No Deal on the ballot.
  • NEW THREAD

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,494
    edited December 2018
    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kle4 said:


    I'm sure they are sick of it but holing May below waterline isn't helpful - her ability to carry those other options had just been reduced because they've humiliated her, and it will increase the number of eff off sentiment. I get they want us to revoke A50 rather than take the deal, they want to keep that money so badly, but if someone has approached a cliff edge, even of their own accord, I don't know that insulting them and mocking then when they complain about their own problems helps draw them away from the edge, which they dont want either.

    Its not about May it's about the Commons. Even fewer Tories will now back the deal with no clear support for anything else and Labour only care about a GE. Mocking the one person who did want a deal and at least tried has made them feel better I'm sure but what does it achieve?

    The EU don't really need to achieve anything more now. They have achieved everything they need. May's deal is fine for the EU if not the UK and so would be our rescinding A50. They fear our exit on WTO terms as well they should but know that there is no chance of it happening thanks to 1. 5 out of 6 MPs being against it and that 2. May clearly sees it as the worst of all options.

    So they are free to insult and humiliate the UK PM as much as they wish.

    I agree with your comments but the EU are going to have one very difficult member if the UK remains
    Only while this disgusting wreck of a government staggers on. The imminent and inevitable Labour government will have a more cordial and constructive relationship with the EU.
    With Corbyn as leader? :p
    I think that Corbyn would be cordial and constructive with the EU. Some elements of the UK population may find him less so, but even with opponents he is generally well mannered and cordial.
    I also think he'd be cordial and constructive, and of course this would get us absolutely nowhere. The only leader we had who got anything meaningful from the EU was Thatcher, and she didn't do that by being nice, or by handbagging, she did it by credible threat of disruption. You can't negotiate when there's no jeopardy for other side. Which is why each PM since her has got less and less.
  • IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Philip Collins has a cunning plan for May to do a deal with Lab moderate remainers for a 2nd vote: her deal vs remain.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/163188a2-fef4-11e8-92e0-7fb8092617eb

    Very much doubt May has it in her to be so bold. And he fails to say what happens if her deal wins and then HoC again doesn't pass it. I suppose the referendum could be made binding - can that be done?

    Why is there the assumption that the second referendum doesn't have WTO on the ballot paper?
    Because no sane politician or sensible government would or could afford to put it forward.
    But Leave Means Leave (or some other group) will take the electoral commission to court as soon as the question is revealed without WTO Brexit on the ballot?

    What if the "enemies of the people" side with the people and say WTO must be on the ballot?

    Would't that be delicious. :D
    Parliament decides what the referendum choice is; the Commission just confirms the wording of the statements on offer.
    Precisely. That's like saying the electoral commission could be taken to court on the AV referendum for not listing PR as an option. If Parliament says it is Remain vs Remainer May's deal then tough luck to anyone who thought Brexit means Brexit.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,175
    RobD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Commentators confirm the ERG position that if we leave on no deal in March the EU will be forced into erecting a border and they have a real blind spot on this

    The EU has said they won't erect a hard border in any circumstances (as as ROI and UK? )
    So what's the big fuss about?
    Quite. They won't bend on it though
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    GIN1138 said:

    Foxy said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Commentators confirm the ERG position that if we leave on no deal in March the EU will be forced into erecting a border and they have a real blind spot on this

    The EU has said they won't erect a hard border in any circumstances (as as ROI and UK? )
    Have they? On the radio last night they were saying that they (and we) would be obliged to under WTO rules.
    I thought WTO had said exceptions can be made when the political situation is particularly "delicate" like with NI and ROI?
    Any country who objected would pursue their grievance via the WTO processes which are, being kind, low velocity.
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    EUCO have given May an even more brutal rebuff than ?"

    image

    So even the EU affirm the backstop is seats
    Well yes, we could all have told her that. But this communique actually puts her into a worse position than she started in. A remarkable achievement, even for her.
    It doesn't actually
    She market.

    Not only has May not gotten what she promised on the backstop from her party or the DUP, she's actually gottent the EUCO to re-affirm their support for it!

    This has contrived to make May's impossible parliamentary arithmetic even harder, because she's now lied to her party and DUP (again) about the backstop, and suffered what is being widely reported as a "rebuff", "humiliation", "Salzburg 2.0" and my personal favorite, "diplomatic disaster".
    It does seem to have gone even worse than she could have imagined. MV today as no pretext was provided for delaying.
    Is it because they are as fed up with this shitshow as the rest of us?

    Realpolitik suggests that May is a lame duck and that there is simply no Deal which will get through Parliament. 118 “extremists” and 10 DUPers will put pay to that.

    The EU needed to tell May to stop fucking about and find a cross-party solution. She has all the tools necessary to do so (inc A50 extension, A50 revocation, referendum, making the customs union permanent etc).
    I'm sure they are sick of it but holing May below waterline isn't helpful - her ability to carry th want either.

    Its not about May it's about the Commons. Even fewer Tories will now back the deal with no clear support for anything else and Labour only care about a GE. Mocking the one person who did want a deal and at least tried has made them feel better I'm sure but what does it achieve?

    May allowed herself to be humiliated - yet again - by making promises she had no hope of keeping. That is no-one's fault but her own. She was not mocked. She was just told what she surely must have known she would be told.

    Incidentally, why did she need to go in person - no internet in Downing Street? She doesn't know how to text?
    Presumably she thought her charm and people skills would be more persuasive in person.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,494
    PM Thatcher
    COE Gladstone
    Home Norman Tebbit
    Foreign Disraeli
    Defence Duke of Wellington
    Health Sally Fallon Morrell
    Business James Dyson
    Work and pensions George Cadbury
    Education Rab Butler
    DEFRA Graham Harvey
    Transport Isambard Kingdom Brunel
    Ind dev roll into the FCO
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,728

    PM Thatcher
    COE Gladstone
    Home Norman Tebbit
    Foreign Disraeli
    Defence Duke of Wellington
    Health Sally Fallon Morrell
    Business James Dyson
    Work and pensions George Cadbury
    Education Rab Butler
    DEFRA Graham Harvey
    Transport Isambard Kingdom Brunel
    Ind dev roll into the FCO

    Don't let Brunel anywhere near transport. He was a good civil engineer, but financially many of his projects were basketcases, and the less said about his mechanical abilities, the better. If you want the sort of person who could tun a department as varied and non-functional as transport, you'd want someone like Josiah Stamp. Although hopefully without the same sad demise, and hopefully the state wouldn't act so terribly to his estate.

    Although the nearest living person in archetype to Brunel is Elon Musk. There are some quite startling similarities ...
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234


    Although the nearest living person in archetype to Brunel is Elon Musk. There are some quite startling similarities ...

    I don't remember Brunel's securities frauds, calling people paedos on Twitter, building stupid "submarines" for their egos...
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