Except that a PM faced with crash out would revoke and a Parliament faced with a last minute vote would do the same. The only way you get to no deal is if the PM is disallowed from revoking as an act of government and Parliament for some reason runs out of diary to hold the necessary vote.
Yes, but my point (which you seem to have missed) is that there will not be an EXTENSION to the period now.
So it would have to be a revoke, as I said. Although I think they'd extend for a vote.
I cannot see how we do not go to No Deal from here.
The Labour leadership wants to avoid a referendum at all costs because a Tory-owned No Deal is its absolute priority. May will never compromise on freedom of movement and will not countenance any move by Parliament that puts the possibility of ending it at risk.
The only thing that might change the equation is overwhelming public pressure and I see little sign of that.
Start stocking up.
The EU Court has said we can unilaterally revoke Brexit. It would be the government's choice to let No Deal happen.
Yep - and I think the government will choose to do that because Labour will do all it can to avoid any other outcome.
OK, that's a view, but it would be the Tories choosing No Deal over a People's Vote and over 'Revoke and Remain'. That would be their choice, Labour don't figure in that at all. My view is if they do that their party will split and they may never be in power again.
Yep. If the Tories "actively" let no deal happen, then they are almost certainly finished.
The ECJ ruling has removed the fig leaf that this potential route isn't their preferred choice. Now it is. And the EU will clearly extend A50 for a referendum if we ask.
At this point I'm worried May might have just drained all goodwill left to negotiate they have. They did say they would extend article 50 for a referendum or an election and obviously Labour don't have the same red lines so it would be easier to negotiate a closer and different relationship than previously but would they offer enough of an extension to make that possible?
I suppose there is a small chance if the government got to work quickly and negotiations went well in the original extension period they might be happy to extend again if its going somewhere. It isn't out of the question but definitely not a given considering how much time has elapsed.
May has drained her goodwill, and probably has no credibility left in Brussels that she can get anything they offer her through parliament. But a new leader and new negotiation would be completely different, and at the end of the day, the EU don't want No Deal either.
It's not about the EU offering an extension, under their rules, we would have reset the clock. Whenever we restart it, we would get 2 years again. At least that's my understanding.
I don't understand that an agreed extension would work that way
Sorry, I must have been unclear. I'm talking about a decision by the UK to rescind A50.
No deal please. Apparently on the EU side they're fine and prepared. I'm sure it will not present France with any issues, it's not like they're a fractious bunch who take to the streets at the drop of a hat is it? And I'm sure they won't miss that £39bn either. Let's just prepare as best we can, and get on with it.
Did you miss the bit about Nick saying he and others told him he voted remain?
I think you meant, 'Corbyn told Nick and others,' and I'm responding in that vein.
Corbyn has repeatedly publicly stated he voted Remain, not least when Owen Smith accused him of being a leaver during the leadership hustings.
The problem is Corbyn also has a massive credibility gap. He's told so many lies about his politics over the years - tuition fees, wreaths, terrorism, Venezuela etc. - that it's difficult to take pretty much anything he says on trust. And his actions - from the campaign itself to setting conditions that can only be fulfilled by Remaining (which he has ruled out) or rewriting the space-time continuum do not inspire confidence that he isn't simply intriguing for no deal.
The irony to my mind is that Corbyn constantly inveighs against Blair and lambasts him but actually they're very similar in crucial ways - they're both utterly unprincipled opportunists and populists who think the truth is an optional extra to be ignored when inconvenient, but whose supporters have a starry-eyed enthusiasm for them that bears no resemblance to the facts. They just happen to have slightly different political starting points.
I cannot see how we do not go to No Deal from here.
The Labour leadership wants to avoid a referendum at all costs because a Tory-owned No Deal is its absolute priority. May will never compromise on freedom of movement and will not countenance any move by Parliament that puts the possibility of ending it at risk.
The only thing that might change the equation is overwhelming public pressure and I see little sign of that.
Start stocking up.
Given you said in the past that the Labour leadership did not want power, whereas clearly they do and Nick has heard from him and others that know him that he voted remain I'm not sure I buy into your Corbyn wants no deal most of all ideas. With the greatest of respect you don't seem to be that great at identifying what actually motivates the left but instead go with a negative impression that suits your biases...
A No Deal Tory Brexit is Labour's quickest route to power. It also delivers what Corbyn and McDonnell have wanted for decades: the UK out of the EU. What is not to like from their perspective?
I suspect some of their outriders fancy a bit of revolutionary chaos.
The German Communists had a slogan that was something like, "First Hitler, then us." It didn't end well for them.
I don’t have that much to do with my CLP these days, but on FB it’s the ex communists pushing hardest against a second vote. The wishy washy middle of road Corbynites say nothing, the old school Labour and right wing want a vote.
My only Labour member friend on Facebook joined in 2015 in enthusiasm for Corbyn and is full-on EU face paint and marching against Brexit. I'm almost as interested in seeing the resolution of that contradiction as I am to see the resolution of the country's position. The "Lexit" supporting SWPer has gone quiet.
I cannot see how we do not go to No Deal from here.
The Labour leadership wants to avoid a referendum at all costs because a Tory-owned No Deal is its absolute priority. May will never compromise on freedom of movement and will not countenance any move by Parliament that puts the possibility of ending it at risk.
The only thing that might change the equation is overwhelming public pressure and I see little sign of that.
Start stocking up.
Given you said in the past that the Labour leadership did not want power, whereas clearly they do and Nick has heard from him and others that know him that he voted remain I'm not sure I buy into your Corbyn wants no deal most of all ideas. With the greatest of respect you don't seem to be that great at identifying what actually motivates the left but instead go with a negative impression that suits your biases...
A No Deal Tory Brexit is Labour's quickest route to power. It also delivers what Corbyn and McDonnell have wanted for decades: the UK out of the EU. What is not to like from their perspective?
If you're so confident, how about a bet?
Corbyn can't allow a no-deal Brexit because the Labour party membership will kick him out.
I'm with you. The point SO is overlooking is that we know which issues matter to Corbyn because his principal hobby for years has been going to meetings to debate them and travelling the world meeting their supporters. I don't see any evidence that the EU mattered much to Corbyn one way or the other - hence his "70% remain" which was an honest answer to the question.
I really do think a lot of people are underestimating Mrs May's determination to end freedom of movement for EU and UK citizens. She will take the country over the cliff rather than give up on that possibility.
At this point I'm worried May might have just drained all goodwill left to negotiate they have. They did say they would extend article 50 for a referendum or an election and obviously Labour don't have the same red lines so it would be easier to negotiate a closer and different relationship than previously but would they offer enough of an extension to make that possible?
I suppose there is a small chance if the government got to work quickly and negotiations went well in the original extension period they might be happy to extend again if its going somewhere. It isn't out of the question but definitely not a given considering how much time has elapsed.
May has drained her goodwill, and probably has no credibility left in Brussels that she can get anything they offer her through parliament. But a new leader and new negotiation would be completely different, and at the end of the day, the EU don't want No Deal either.
It's not about the EU offering an extension, under their rules, we would have reset the clock. Whenever we restart it, we would get 2 years again. At least that's my understanding.
I don't understand that an agreed extension would work that way
Yeah we can't just revoke article 50 and then reinvoke it. I mean we could but that would royally piss the EU off and would a bad faith withdrawal so would be blocked actually.
The only way you negotiate with them now rather than years down the line is with an extension, which they will offer for a GE but I don't think it will be the 2 year timeframe May had before she called GE'17.
If in the timeframe they gave you progress was going really well on a different deal they may be happy to keep that going but it might be a stretch.
When the EU said they will offer an extension for a GE or referendum did they have in mind the GE producing a leader wanted a different deal or just wanting to revoke article 50?
No deal please. Apparently on the EU side they're fine and prepared. I'm sure it will not present France with any issues, it's not like they're a fractious bunch who take to the streets at the drop of a hat is it? And I'm sure they won't miss that £39bn either. Let's just prepare as best we can, and get on with it.
the yellow bellied Tories will never have the balls to make that decision.
May fights is a terrible outcome for the Tories. They continue to fight over Brexit which dominates 100% of the political agenda; they continue to be led by a lame duck leader whom no one wants to lead them in the next election because of her appalling campaigning skills and total detachment from people’s lives; rivals spend all their time jockeying for position as power and authority drains from May; Hammond continues as Chancellor solely concerned with blocking no deal preparation whilst the economy deteriorates and investment goes elsewhere and all this serves to make the most hard left and incompetent Labour leadership since Foot look half way credible.
And the most popular politician in the Country
What's Nicola Sturgeon got to do with it?
How are her ratings v Ruth - I really do not know the answer which surprises me somewhat
Who is this Ruth you speak of , never seen never heard, former sockpuppet of London, they have run out of Buffalo and tanks for her.
Until she resigns, the Scottish Unionists will never be politically ruthless.
I cannot see how we do not go to No Deal from here.
The Labour leadership wants to avoid a referendum at all costs because a Tory-owned No Deal is its absolute priority. May will never compromise on freedom of movement and will not countenance any move by Parliament that puts the possibility of ending it at risk.
The only thing that might change the equation is overwhelming public pressure and I see little sign of that.
Start stocking up.
The EU Court has said we can unilaterally revoke Brexit. It would be the government's choice to let No Deal happen.
Yep - and I think the government will choose to do that because Labour will do all it can to avoid any other outcome.
If Labour want to avoid that outcome then they could back the deal, with amendments or conditions if needs be on future trade arrangements or voting.
Same goes for the ERG. They are both being supremely irresponsible.
May even conceded that she would open up the debate on the future trade arrangements - but everyone was too busy confusing the backstop with the future trade agreement to notice.
As I have said before, given the timings and issues it is this deal or no deal.
Not this deal.
Therefore no deal.
Yep. Unless Remainers stop dreaming, accept we really are leaving and decide - maximum pain for all, or suck it up and pass May's deal.....
It’s pain either way. Short term or long term. The best May can expect from Remainers is not to stop it. But to vote for it, is perhaps a bridge to far. You’ll get bullshit like 85% of voters backed Brexit in 2017 to legitimise their mad schemes.
No deal please. Apparently on the EU side they're fine and prepared. I'm sure it will not present France with any issues, it's not like they're a fractious bunch who take to the streets at the drop of a hat is it? And I'm sure they won't miss that £39bn either. Let's just prepare as best we can, and get on with it.
the yellow bellied Tories will never have the balls to make that decision.
At this point I'm worried May might have just drained all goodwill left to negotiate they have. They did say they would extend article 50 for a referendum or an election and obviously Labour don't have the same red lines so it would be easier to negotiate a closer and different relationship than previously but would they offer enough of an extension to make that possible?
I suppose there is a small chance if the government got to work quickly and negotiations went well in the original extension period they might be happy to extend again if its going somewhere. It isn't out of the question but definitely not a given considering how much time has elapsed.
May has drained her goodwill, and probably has no credibility left in Brussels that she can get anything they offer her through parliament. But a new leader and new negotiation would be completely different, and at the end of the day, the EU don't want No Deal either.
It's not about the EU offering an extension, under their rules, we would have reset the clock. Whenever we restart it, we would get 2 years again. At least that's my understanding.
I don't understand that an agreed extension would work that way
Sorry, I must have been unclear. I'm talking about a decision by the UK to rescind A50.
If we rescind, it is acadamic. Having spent two years trapped on this crazy ride and seeing the shambles and risk of its end, if we do escape intact there will be no political and little public appetite for going round to the start and getting on again. The Brexiters will go back to talking to themselves on the back seat of the bus.
I cannot see how we do not go to No Deal from here.
The Labour leadership wants to avoid a referendum at all costs because a Tory-owned No Deal is its absolute priority. May will never compromise on freedom of movement and will not countenance any move by Parliament that puts the possibility of ending it at risk.
The only thing that might change the equation is overwhelming public pressure and I see little sign of that.
Start stocking up.
The EU Court has said we can unilaterally revoke Brexit. It would be the government's choice to let No Deal happen.
Yep - and I think the government will choose to do that because Labour will do all it can to avoid any other outcome.
If Labour want to avoid that outcome then they could back the deal, with amendments or conditions if needs be on future trade arrangements or voting.
Same goes for the ERG. They are both being supremely irresponsible.
May even conceded that she would open up the debate on the future trade arrangements - but everyone was too busy confusing the backstop with the future trade agreement to notice.
Because the backstop is the only meaningful future trade agreement.
I cannot see how we do not go to No Deal from here.
The Labour leadership wants to avoid a referendum at all costs because a Tory-owned No Deal is its absolute priority. May will never compromise on freedom of movement and will not countenance any move by Parliament that puts the possibility of ending it at risk.
The only thing that might change the equation is overwhelming public pressure and I see little sign of that.
Start stocking up.
Given you said in the past that the Labour leadership did not want power, whereas clearly they do and Nick has heard from him and others that know him that he voted remain I'm not sure I buy into your Corbyn wants no deal most of all ideas. With the greatest of respect you don't seem to be that great at identifying what actually motivates the left but instead go with a negative impression that suits your biases...
A No Deal Tory Brexit is Labour's quickest route to power. It also delivers what Corbyn and McDonnell have wanted for decades: the UK out of the EU. What is not to like from their perspective?
If you're so confident, how about a bet?
Corbyn can't allow a no-deal Brexit because the Labour party membership will kick him out.
No, the Labour membership will blame the Tories. Labour voters may not, of course.
I cannot see how we do not go to No Deal from here.
The Labour leadership wants to avoid a referendum at all costs because a Tory-owned No Deal is its absolute priority. May will never compromise on freedom of movement and will not countenance any move by Parliament that puts the possibility of ending it at risk.
The only thing that might change the equation is overwhelming public pressure and I see little sign of that.
Start stocking up.
The EU Court has said we can unilaterally revoke Brexit. It would be the government's choice to let No Deal happen.
Yep - and I think the government will choose to do that because Labour will do all it can to avoid any other outcome.
If Labour want to avoid that outcome then they could back the deal, with amendments or conditions if needs be on future trade arrangements or voting.
Same goes for the ERG. They are both being supremely irresponsible.
I think you misunderstand Southam. Labour are massive supporters of no deal, according to Southam. Labour, apparently, want to avoid any outcome apart from no deal.
No Deal, not Remain, is the default. Politics follows the path of least resistance, and too many in the Labour Party see No Deal Brexit as an event that - while it might cause distress to the country - will cause more to the Conservative Party. No Deal, they say, bring it on, for it is the Tories who will be blamed.
The Labour party are surely wrong if they think the blame for a disaster will attach itself neatly to the Tories. There will be plenty of blame to go around, and their voting for triggering A50 will make them at least partly complicit.
But how do we end up with No Deal outcome? Surely if it gets close and people get worried, parliament will just chuck out Theresa May by 500-100 and then we will rescind A50 for a new govt to have a crack at the negotiation?
If legislation is necessary, it can be passed through the Commons in one day if needed - and it hardly seems likely the Lords will delay it either...
May will not rescind Article 50. It's not in her DNA. The window to do that will have gone by sunrise on 30th March, while she is been still doggedly sticking to her Deal. So, Remainers - ball in your court: May's Deal, or Hard Brexit?
Has to be Hard Brexit rather than that dogs breakfast of a total surrender.
I cannot see how we do not go to No Deal from here.
The Labour leadership wants to avoid a referendum at all costs because a Tory-owned No Deal is its absolute priority. May will never compromise on freedom of movement and will not countenance any move by Parliament that puts the possibility of ending it at risk.
The only thing that might change the equation is overwhelming public pressure and I see little sign of that.
Start stocking up.
The EU Court has said we can unilaterally revoke Brexit. It would be the government's choice to let No Deal happen.
Yep - and I think the government will choose to do that because Labour will do all it can to avoid any other outcome.
If Labour want to avoid that outcome then they could back the deal, with amendments or conditions if needs be on future trade arrangements or voting.
Same goes for the ERG. They are both being supremely irresponsible.
I think you misunderstand Southam. Labour are massive supporters of no deal, according to Southam. Labour, apparently, want to avoid any outcome apart from no deal.
I don't think he said Labour is, because they're clearly not. I think it's Corbyn and Macdonnell he's talking about.
I cannot see how we do not go to No Deal from here.
The Labour leadership wants to avoid a referendum at all costs because a Tory-owned No Deal is its absolute priority. May will never compromise on freedom of movement and will not countenance any move by Parliament that puts the possibility of ending it at risk.
The only thing that might change the equation is overwhelming public pressure and I see little sign of that.
Start stocking up.
The EU Court has said we can unilaterally revoke Brexit. It would be the government's choice to let No Deal happen.
Yep - and I think the government will choose to do that because Labour will do all it can to avoid any other outcome.
If Labour want to avoid that outcome then they could back the deal, with amendments or conditions if needs be on future trade arrangements or voting.
Same goes for the ERG. They are both being supremely irresponsible.
I think you misunderstand Southam. Labour are massive supporters of no deal, according to Southam. Labour, apparently, want to avoid any outcome apart from no deal.
The Conservatives are supposed to be about good economic governance. --> even as the economy is going well, they're trashing that reputation on the altar of Brexit.
Labour are supposed to be about being good for people. --> by risking the economic chaos of no deal that will hurt real people, by being in the grip of interest groups, and by having an anti-Semite in charge, they're trashing that reputation.
Lib Dems are supposed to be a reasonable middle ground. --> they're not trashing that reputation as they're invisible, and the ones that do offer suggestions are wildly unrealistic.
The DUP are supposed to want to keep NI in the UK. --> they're risking exactly the opposite.
Only the SNP seem to be doing anything like their traditional role. Then again, it's quite easy for them given their situation (especially the Scottish vote in the EU ref).
Caroline Lucas seems to be enjoying a bit of a resurgence these days. I doubt we’re going to have a Green surge a la Germany, but they could conceivably overtake the Lib Dems if Vince remains somnolent.
(It really is time to dump Vince and elect Jo Swinson or, better, Layla Moran.)
I cannot see how we do not go to No Deal from here.
The Labour leadership wants to avoid a referendum at all costs because a Tory-owned No Deal is its absolute priority. May will never compromise on freedom of movement and will not countenance any move by Parliament that puts the possibility of ending it at risk.
The only thing that might change the equation is overwhelming public pressure and I see little sign of that.
Start stocking up.
The EU Court has said we can unilaterally revoke Brexit. It would be the government's choice to let No Deal happen.
Yep - and I think the government will choose to do that because Labour will do all it can to avoid any other outcome.
If Labour want to avoid that outcome then they could back the deal, with amendments or conditions if needs be on future trade arrangements or voting.
Same goes for the ERG. They are both being supremely irresponsible.
I think you misunderstand Southam. Labour are massive supporters of no deal, according to Southam. Labour, apparently, want to avoid any outcome apart from no deal.
Corbyn is doing nothing to stop no deal. Look at what he does not the script he reads.
No deal please. Apparently on the EU side they're fine and prepared. I'm sure it will not present France with any issues, it's not like they're a fractious bunch who take to the streets at the drop of a hat is it? And I'm sure they won't miss that £39bn either. Let's just prepare as best we can, and get on with it.
the yellow bellied Tories will never have the balls to make that decision.
Hopefully rightly because it would be bloody stupid!
I think they are actually generally more scared about being seen to act against the result of the referendum, apart from the ERG faction who are effectively controlling the prospect of a no deal outcome (and largely mad).
If we want to let the ERG dictate that, then parliament has gone collectively crazy. Probably a poetic denouement in some ways.
I cannot see how we do not go to No Deal from here.
The Labour leadership wants to avoid a referendum at all costs because a Tory-owned No Deal is its absolute priority. May will never compromise on freedom of movement and will not countenance any move by Parliament that puts the possibility of ending it at risk.
The only thing that might change the equation is overwhelming public pressure and I see little sign of that.
Start stocking up.
The EU Court has said we can unilaterally revoke Brexit. It would be the government's choice to let No Deal happen.
Yep - and I think the government will choose to do that because Labour will do all it can to avoid any other outcome.
If Labour want to avoid that outcome then they could back the deal, with amendments or conditions if needs be on future trade arrangements or voting.
Same goes for the ERG. They are both being supremely irresponsible.
I think you misunderstand Southam. Labour are massive supporters of no deal, according to Southam. Labour, apparently, want to avoid any outcome apart from no deal.
Corbyn is doing nothing to stop no deal. Look at what he does not the script he reads.
They need to start walking the walk, I agree. Otherwise it will become increasingly obvious.
I cannot see how we do not go to No Deal from here.
The Labour leadership wants to avoid a referendum at all costs because a Tory-owned No Deal is its absolute priority. May will never compromise on freedom of movement and will not countenance any move by Parliament that puts the possibility of ending it at risk.
The only thing that might change the equation is overwhelming public pressure and I see little sign of that.
Start stocking up.
The EU Court has said we can unilaterally revoke Brexit. It would be the government's choice to let No Deal happen.
Yep - and I think the government will choose to do that because Labour will do all it can to avoid any other outcome.
If Labour want to avoid that outcome then they could back the deal, with amendments or conditions if needs be on future trade arrangements or voting.
Same goes for the ERG. They are both being supremely irresponsible.
I think you misunderstand Southam. Labour are massive supporters of no deal, according to Southam. Labour, apparently, want to avoid any outcome apart from no deal.
Corbyn is doing nothing to stop no deal. Look at what he does not the script he reads.
Yes but this is provoking a strong backlash already, from MPs and members
May fights is a terrible outcome for the Tories. They continue to fight over Brexit which dominates 100% of the political agenda; they continue to be led by a lame duck leader whom no one wants to lead them in the next election because of her appalling campaigning skills and total detachment from people’s lives; rivals spend all their time jockeying for position as power and authority drains from May; Hammond continues as Chancellor solely concerned with blocking no deal preparation whilst the economy deteriorates and investment goes elsewhere and all this serves to make the most hard left and incompetent Labour leadership since Foot look half way credible.
And the most popular politician in the Country
What's Nicola Sturgeon got to do with it?
How are her ratings v Ruth - I really do not know the answer which surprises me somewhat
Who is this Ruth you speak of , never seen never heard, former sockpuppet of London, they have run out of Buffalo and tanks for her.
Until she resigns, the Scottish Unionists will never be politically ruthless.
I'll get my coat...
ydoethur, you can be relied on at all times, well done.
I cannot see how we do not go to No Deal from here.
The Labour leadership wants to avoid a referendum at all costs because a Tory-owned No Deal is its absolute priority. May will never compromise on freedom of movement and will not countenance any move by Parliament that puts the possibility of ending it at risk.
The only thing that might change the equation is overwhelming public pressure and I see little sign of that.
Start stocking up.
The EU Court has said we can unilaterally revoke Brexit. It would be the government's choice to let No Deal happen.
Yep - and I think the government will choose to do that because Labour will do all it can to avoid any other outcome.
If Labour want to avoid that outcome then they could back the deal, with amendments or conditions if needs be on future trade arrangements or voting.
Same goes for the ERG. They are both being supremely irresponsible.
I think you misunderstand Southam. Labour are massive supporters of no deal, according to Southam. Labour, apparently, want to avoid any outcome apart from no deal.
Corbyn is doing nothing to stop no deal. Look at what he does not the script he reads.
Corbyn May not be, the vast majority of his MPs are firmly into no Deal. Stephen Kinnock even jointly authored a pro Norway and Customs Union piece in the most recent Sunday Times. Corbyn is also committed to closer EU ties than the PM too by backing permanent not temporary UK membership of a Customs Union
Did you miss the bit about Nick saying he and others told him he voted remain?
I think you meant, 'Corbyn told Nick and others,' and I'm responding in that vein.
Corbyn has repeatedly publicly stated he voted Remain, not least when Owen Smith accused him of being a leaver during the leadership hustings.
The problem is Corbyn also has a massive credibility gap. He's told so many lies about his politics over the years - tuition fees, wreaths, terrorism, Venezuela etc. - that it's difficult to take pretty much anything he says on trust. And his actions - from the campaign itself to setting conditions that can only be fulfilled by Remaining (which he has ruled out) or rewriting the space-time continuum do not inspire confidence that he isn't simply intriguing for no deal.
The irony to my mind is that Corbyn constantly inveighs against Blair and lambasts him but actually they're very similar in crucial ways - they're both utterly unprincipled opportunists and populists who think the truth is an optional extra to be ignored when inconvenient, but whose supporters have a starry-eyed enthusiasm for them that bears no resemblance to the facts. They just happen to have slightly different political starting points.
Given your inventions regarding Labour's manifesto recently you have a bit of a credibility gap yourself...
You don't like Corbyn and think he is always lying and bad and so on and so forth for all it means I may as well ask some passionate left wing miner from around the strike period to give me an assessment of Thatcher. It does strike me that you are probably as bad as the most deluded Corbynista in your views on him but from the completely opposite angle.
Does anyone seriously think there aren't already draft Revocation Bills in desk draws all over Westminster ? If we are heading toward no deal in March one or two of them will be introduced and the Lords version will pass. Which means if the government wants no deal it will have to vote for no deal in the Commons by at least denying the Lords bill time and/or the SNP/PC/LD/Green Commons version. The CJEU ruling means the Commons is going to have to vote for no deal.
No deal please. Apparently on the EU side they're fine and prepared. I'm sure it will not present France with any issues, it's not like they're a fractious bunch who take to the streets at the drop of a hat is it? And I'm sure they won't miss that £39bn either. Let's just prepare as best we can, and get on with it.
the yellow bellied Tories will never have the balls to make that decision.
Hopefully rightly because it would be bloody stupid!
I think they are actually generally more scared about being seen to act against the result of the referendum, apart from the ERG faction who are effectively controlling the prospect of a no deal outcome (and largely mad).
If we want to let the ERG dictate that, then parliament has gone collectively crazy. Probably a poetic denouement in some ways.
They need to p*** or get off the pot, stop thinking of their personal interests. Either revoke A50 or get ready for a No Deal, it is painfully obvious and simple decision. PS: These arses get paid shedloads to make decisions, supposedly.
The Conservatives are supposed to be about good economic governance. --> even as the economy is going well, they're trashing that reputation on the altar of Brexit.
Labour are supposed to be about being good for people. --> by risking the economic chaos of no deal that will hurt real people, by being in the grip of interest groups, and by having an anti-Semite in charge, they're trashing that reputation.
Lib Dems are supposed to be a reasonable middle ground. --> they're not trashing that reputation as they're invisible, and the ones that do offer suggestions are wildly unrealistic.
The DUP are supposed to want to keep NI in the UK. --> they're risking exactly the opposite.
Only the SNP seem to be doing anything like their traditional role. Then again, it's quite easy for them given their situation (especially the Scottish vote in the EU ref).
Caroline Lucas seems to be enjoying a bit of a resurgence these days. I doubt we’re going to have a Green surge a la Germany, but they could conceivably overtake the Lib Dems if Vince remains somnolent.
(It really is time to dump Vince and elect Jo Swinson or, better, Layla Moran.)
I utterly agree. Cable has many problems, but not only is he (and therefore his party) invisible at the moment, but I can't see any indications he's rebuilding his party's local base - something that has traditionally been a Lib Dem strength, and which his predecessor was addressing.
(I'd love it if a Lib Dem activist could say whether this perception is correct.)
Arriving at Valletta airport there were three entry doors. Shengen EU/EEC Other. Speaking to several people before the closing ceremony for this years European City of Culture I suspect if the British Leavers could put some context what this wonderful European entity is all about they would have seen things differently and probably wanted to have gone in more wholeheartedly.
As it is I really feel the reputation of the English in particular has taken a huge hit and one which will take a long time to recover from. Rather like Trump has tarnished many values felt about Americans this has done the same to the British though moreso because our reputation started at a higher level
Maybe but as the rise of gilets jaunes, Le Pen, Salvini and Lega Nord, the AfD, the Swedish Democrats, Vox end shows continental Europe is not immune to the populist anti immigration right either
I cannot see how we do not go to No Deal from here.
The Labour leadership wants to avoid a referendum at all costs because a Tory-owned No Deal is its absolute priority. May will never compromise on freedom of movement and will not countenance any move by Parliament that puts the possibility of ending it at risk.
The only thing that might change the equation is overwhelming public pressure and I see little sign of that.
Start stocking up.
The EU Court has said we can unilaterally revoke Brexit. It would be the government's choice to let No Deal happen.
Yep - and I think the government will choose to do that because Labour will do all it can to avoid any other outcome.
If Labour want to avoid that outcome then they could back the deal, with amendments or conditions if needs be on future trade arrangements or voting.
Same goes for the ERG. They are both being supremely irresponsible.
I think you misunderstand Southam. Labour are massive supporters of no deal, according to Southam. Labour, apparently, want to avoid any outcome apart from no deal.
Corbyn is doing nothing to stop no deal. Look at what he does not the script he reads.
Yes but this is provoking a strong backlash already, from MPs and members
Not the members. There is literally nothing that Corbyn could do that would alienate him from them.
The Conservatives are supposed to be about good economic governance. --> even as the economy is going well, they're trashing that reputation on the altar of Brexit.
Labour are supposed to be about being good for people. --> by risking the economic chaos of no deal that will hurt real people, by being in the grip of interest groups, and by having an anti-Semite in charge, they're trashing that reputation.
Lib Dems are supposed to be a reasonable middle ground. --> they're not trashing that reputation as they're invisible, and the ones that do offer suggestions are wildly unrealistic.
The DUP are supposed to want to keep NI in the UK. --> they're risking exactly the opposite.
Only the SNP seem to be doing anything like their traditional role. Then again, it's quite easy for them given their situation (especially the Scottish vote in the EU ref).
Caroline Lucas seems to be enjoying a bit of a resurgence these days. I doubt we’re going to have a Green surge a la Germany, but they could conceivably overtake the Lib Dems if Vince remains somnolent.
(It really is time to dump Vince and elect Jo Swinson or, better, Layla Moran.)
I utterly agree. Cable has many problems, but not only is he (and therefore his party) invisible at the moment, but I can't see any indications he's rebuilding his party's local base - something that has traditionally been a Lib Dem strength, and which his predecessor was addressing.
(I'd love it if a Lib Dem activist could say whether this perception is correct.)
I cannot see how we do not go to No Deal from here.
The Labour leadership wants to avoid a referendum at all costs because a Tory-owned No Deal is its absolute priority. May will never compromise on freedom of movement and will not countenance any move by Parliament that puts the possibility of ending it at risk.
The only thing that might change the equation is overwhelming public pressure and I see little sign of that.
Start stocking up.
The EU Court has said we can unilaterally revoke Brexit. It would be the government's choice to let No Deal happen.
Yep - and I think the government will choose to do that because Labour will do all it can to avoid any other outcome.
If Labour want to avoid that outcome then they could back the deal, with amendments or conditions if needs be on future trade arrangements or voting.
Same goes for the ERG. They are both being supremely irresponsible.
I think you misunderstand Southam. Labour are massive supporters of no deal, according to Southam. Labour, apparently, want to avoid any outcome apart from no deal.
The Labour leadership is not Labour. The problem is that it controls Labour.
No deal please. Apparently on the EU side they're fine and prepared. I'm sure it will not present France with any issues, it's not like they're a fractious bunch who take to the streets at the drop of a hat is it? And I'm sure they won't miss that £39bn either. Let's just prepare as best we can, and get on with it.
the yellow bellied Tories will never have the balls to make that decision.
Hopefully rightly because it would be bloody stupid!
I think they are actually generally more scared about being seen to act against the result of the referendum, apart from the ERG faction who are effectively controlling the prospect of a no deal outcome (and largely mad).
If we want to let the ERG dictate that, then parliament has gone collectively crazy. Probably a poetic denouement in some ways.
They need to p*** or get off the pot, stop thinking of their personal interests. Either revoke A50 or get ready for a No Deal, it is painfully obvious and simple decision. PS: These arses get paid shedloads to make decisions, supposedly.
Nandy and Kendall want to pass the decision of a referendum question to Citizens' Assemblies before they even.vote on holding a referendum
The Conservatives are supposed to be about good economic governance. --> even as the economy is going well, they're trashing that reputation on the altar of Brexit.
Labour are supposed to be about being good for people. --> by risking the economic chaos of no deal that will hurt real people, by being in the grip of interest groups, and by having an anti-Semite in charge, they're trashing that reputation.
Lib Dems are supposed to be a reasonable middle ground. --> they're not trashing that reputation as they're invisible, and the ones that do offer suggestions are wildly unrealistic.
The DUP are supposed to want to keep NI in the UK. --> they're risking exactly the opposite.
Only the SNP seem to be doing anything like their traditional role. Then again, it's quite easy for them given their situation (especially the Scottish vote in the EU ref).
Caroline Lucas seems to be enjoying a bit of a resurgence these days. I doubt we’re going to have a Green surge a la Germany, but they could conceivably overtake the Lib Dems if Vince remains somnolent.
(It really is time to dump Vince and elect Jo Swinson or, better, Layla Moran.)
I utterly agree. Cable has many problems, but not only is he (and therefore his party) invisible at the moment, but I can't see any indications he's rebuilding his party's local base - something that has traditionally been a Lib Dem strength, and which his predecessor was addressing.
(I'd love it if a Lib Dem activist could say whether this perception is correct.)
I think the truth of the matter is that neither Moran nor Swinson want the job. Or don't think they are ready, which amounts to the same thing. Hence Vince is stuck and his rather hapless toying with the idea of a non-MP leader was his attempt to find a way out of the job.
Ambition way in excess of talent seems to be a male thing.
I cannot see how we do not go to No Deal from here.
The Labour leadership wants to avoid a referendum at all costs because a Tory-owned No Deal is its absolute priority. May will never compromise on freedom of movement and will not countenance any move by Parliament that puts the possibility of ending it at risk.
The only thing that might change the equation is overwhelming public pressure and I see little sign of that.
Start stocking up.
The EU Court has said we can unilaterally revoke Brexit. It would be the government's choice to let No Deal happen.
Yep - and I think the government will choose to do that because Labour will do all it can to avoid any other outcome.
If Labour want to avoid that outcome then they could back the deal, with amendments or conditions if needs be on future trade arrangements or voting.
Same goes for the ERG. They are both being supremely irresponsible.
I think you misunderstand Southam. Labour are massive supporters of no deal, according to Southam. Labour, apparently, want to avoid any outcome apart from no deal.
Corbyn. Corbyn wants no deal.
And McDonnell, Milne, Murray, Murphy, McCluskey and Formby. And as long as that does not change the Labour leadership will do nothing to stop a No Deal Brexit.
So much for helping 'facilitate' things. Couldn't even be arsed to fig leaf it. They really have given up on the deal have their eggs in the Remain basket if They wont even try some classic last minute EU fudge.
What excuse does May have for not holding the MV now?
I cannot see how we do not go to No Deal from here.
The Labour leadership wants to avoid a referendum at all costs because a Tory-owned No Deal is its absolute priority. May will never compromise on freedom of movement and will not countenance any move by Parliament that puts the possibility of ending it at risk.
The only thing that might change the equation is overwhelming public pressure and I see little sign of that.
Start stocking up.
The EU Court has said we can unilaterally revoke Brexit. It would be the government's choice to let No Deal happen.
Yep - and I think the government will choose to do that because Labour will do all it can to avoid any other outcome.
If Labour want to avoid that outcome then they could back the deal, with amendments or conditions if needs be on future trade arrangements or voting.
Same goes for the ERG. They are both being supremely irresponsible.
I think you misunderstand Southam. Labour are massive supporters of no deal, according to Southam. Labour, apparently, want to avoid any outcome apart from no deal.
Corbyn is doing nothing to stop no deal. Look at what he does not the script he reads.
Yes but this is provoking a strong backlash already, from MPs and members
Not the members. There is literally nothing that Corbyn could do that would alienate him from them.
If you think there aren't tons of Labour members unhappy (and more) at Labours vacuity and masterful inactivity on Brexit, then you are so gripped by PB that you aren't dropping by other political forums.
200 Tory MPs now regretting they didn’t boot May out when they had the chance, after the EU give her the usual two fingered salute over the backstop. What a shower. That’s any chance of Tory unity being restored gone, any chance of rebuilding bridges with the DUP gone, any chance of fending off a VNOC gone. They deserve a Corbyn Gov. Just a shame they are going to inflict Corbyn on the rest of us.
What price a General Election in March. Still, at least Brenda in Bristol didn’t have one this year. She must be getting withdrawal symptoms.
A no deal Brexit is looking more likely every day and every day this pathetic Giv refuses to prepare properly for it. The electorate will never forgive them. The Tory Party must surely split now if there is to be sane party in British politics. Let the muppets like Soubry, Allen, Morgan etc go off to the LibDems or join Umnunna, Cooper, Kendall is a new SDP.
I think there is a great deal of complacency among Remainers that looming No Deal makes Remain more likely.
And I think there's a great deal of complacency among No Dealers that Project Fear (Mark 2.0) is dramatically overdone, and that we will be able to sail through the process with no ill effects.
I'm here to tell you that both these complacencies are incorrect. No Deal, not Remain, is the default. Politics follows the path of least resistance, and too many in the Labour Party see No Deal Brexit as an event that - while it might cause distress to the country - will cause more to the Conservative Party. No Deal, they say, bring it on, for it is the Tories who will be blamed.
No Dealers? Three issues. The biggest is to think that the world is divided between perfidious Europeans, and the rest of the world, made of moral free traders. Let me tell you a secret: Europeans, Nation Staters, Americans, Saudis, Russians, Chinese, Australians and Chileans - they're all out for themselves. They won't look at a UK-?? relationship, and ask themselves "how do we maximise the pie?", they will ask "how do I maximise my share?"
The second one is to see small adminstrative issues as, well, small administrative issues. Individually, they're small, cumulatively they're massive.
Thirdly, the UK economy is sick. And it's not sick because of membership of the EU, but because governments have repeatedly prioritised spending over saving. Over the 21 years since 1997 we'been as profligate as the Greeks - it just hasn't come home to roost yet.
No Dealers, you won't go down as heroes, you'll go down as deluded. Remainers won't get the pleasure of schadenfreuda, you'll be seen as complicit. Your inaction is every bit as reprehensible as the that of the No Dealers.
And underlying all this is a fundamental misconception. Whatever is agreed, whatever is said in the legal texts, everything is always up for renegotiation. Scotland has no "exit clause", but does anyone doubt that if they voted to go, we'd let them? Before the Lisbon Treaty, there was not "how to leave the EU" method, yet Greenland managed it. Does anyone seriously think that if the Brits had voted in 2001 to leave the EU, then we could not have achieved it due to the lack of an exit clause?
Theresa May's deal is not perfect. Most importantly, it must be the people of Northern Ireland who should choose whether they remain in the backstop. But the deal is an exit. It honours the referendum result. It will neither torpedo the British democratic system, nor cause serious economic hardships. And whatever is agreed now, it will not last forever.
EUCO have given May an even more brutal rebuff than at Salzburg.
As predicted, the draft addendum has been salami sliced till there's nothing left. I think EUCO are trying to send May a message: "WHICH PART OF THE DEAL IS FINAL DO YOU NOT UNDERSTAND?"
I’m unsure what the EU reasoning for this is. There is a possibility that we will be asked in the near future whether we want to change our minds and associate with the EU again, I cannot fathom why they would think this would be a good idea.
They believe frightening people is better than enticing people.
If I were negotiating for the EU, what would I do? Exactly as they are. Hopefully produce a united front, say lots of nice words to Mrs May (a useful idiot) and hold firm on the current deal.
If it's accepted, we carry on as BINO. If it's not, we hope and expect, at the very worst, a second referendum as pressure grows on the UK government.
Tony Blair is the most clear thinking politician we have ever had. Even now he makes the rest sound self serving confused or stupid. For an explanation which makes sense switch onto radio 4 and listen to his whole interview
Fraser Nelson on Newsnight: a growing number of cabinet ministers favour a general election in March next year.
It is going to have to come and in the new year TM should announce it and as labour would support it offf we go
I can see why one would happen but not why the Tories would favour it. They'd be mad to do it rather than a referendum.
Going for a GE wouldn't lead to the accusation of 'betraying the vote'. And most MPs live in bubbles that persuade them more of the public shares their viewpoint than is the reality. A GE allows them all to imagine a get out of jail card, at least until the 10pm exit poll.
Tony Blair is the most clear thinking politician we have ever had. Even now he makes the rest sound self serving confused or stupid. For an explanation which makes sense switch onto radio 4 and listen to his whole interview
Yes, he is. He's not always right (Iraq! PFI!) but he thinks clearly and puts his case vigorously. I don't dislike Mrs May but after two years I'm little the wiser on what she actually wants.
200 Tory MPs now regretting they didn’t boot May out when they had the chance, after the EU give her the usual two fingered salute over the backstop. What a shower. That’s any chance of Toryunity beingrestored gine, any chance of rebuilding bridges with the DUP gone, any chance of fending off a VNOC gine. They deserve a Corbyn Gov. Just a shame they are going to inflict Calamity Corbyn on the rest of us.
What price a General Election in March. Still, at least Brenda in Bristol didn’t have one this year. She must be getting withdrawal symptoms.
A no deal Brexit is looking more likely every day and every day this pathetic Giv refuses to prepare properly for it. The electorate will never forgive them. The Tory Party must surely split now if there is to be sane party in British politics. Let the muppets like Soubry, Allen Morgan go off to the LibDems or join Umnunna, Cooper, Kendall is a new SDP.
It is No Deal Brexit that opens the door to Corbyn and the EU have confirmed again they aim to have have completed an agreement by the end of 2020 so the backstop is not triggered.
However of cause if Corbyn does get it No Deal will not last long, Corbyn will agree to permanent Customs Union as per Labour policy and most likely permanent Customs Union too as the SNP will demand in return for confidence and supply. So by rejecting May's Deal hardliners like you will just end up with BINO in the end ( though the Tories may go on a more hard line position in opposition under Boris)
No Deal, not Remain, is the default. Politics follows the path of least resistance, and too many in the Labour Party see No Deal Brexit as an event that - while it might cause distress to the country - will cause more to the Conservative Party. No Deal, they say, bring it on, for it is the Tories who will be blamed.
The Labour party are surely wrong if they think the blame for a disaster will attach itself neatly to the Tories. There will be plenty of blame to go around, and their voting for triggering A50 will make them at least partly complicit.
But how do we end up with No Deal outcome? Surely if it gets close and people get worried, parliament will just chuck out Theresa May by 500-100 and then we will rescind A50 for a new govt to have a crack at the negotiation?
If legislation is necessary, it can be passed through the Commons in one day if needed - and it hardly seems likely the Lords will delay it either...
I don't think you are missing anything. Leavers like Robert just haven't processed yet the significance of the CJEU ruling on revocation of A50. Yes no deal is technically the default but we would now de facto have to actively decide to leave with no deal as we can just revoke if we want to.
All Brexit gas gas going for it since at least the GE result is it's inevitability. Which is why must Brexiter are in denial about the CJEU ruling.
That is a good point. Mrs May's hope that by letting time pass without much happening will make her plan the only alternative to a No Deal Brexit cannot now work. Her best bet would be to have a Deal/Remain referendum where she stands a chance of winning. To get to March without things having been decided now means that the real choice will be Deal or 'Revoke and Remain'. No sane government will let the UK exit with No Deal and if her Deal is still wildly unpopular then they will have to revoke and remain. It would be better for her to take her chance and get the electorate's backing for her Deal or Remain.
The problem you have there is how do Parliament revoke when that cannot be done without the agreement if the Executive. Scott was contending the other night that the Executive can do it on their own. Now I think he is incorrect but what no one has argued is that Parliament can do it on their own without the agreement of the Executive.
So how do you see us getting to a position where we can revoke as long as the Tories remain in control of the Executive?
I cannot see how we do not go to No Deal from here.
The Labour leadership wants to avoid a referendum at all costs because a Tory-owned No Deal is its absolute priority. May will never compromise on freedom of movement and will not countenance any move by Parliament that puts the possibility of ending it at risk.
The only thing that might change the equation is overwhelming public pressure and I see little sign of that.
Start stocking up.
The EU Court has said we can unilaterally revoke Brexit. It would be the government's choice to let No Deal happen.
Yep - and I think the government will choose to do that because Labour will do all it can to avoid any other outcome.
If Labour want to avoid that outcome then they could back the deal, with amendments or conditions if needs be on future trade arrangements or voting.
Same goes for the ERG. They are both being supremely irresponsible.
I think you misunderstand Southam. Labour are massive supporters of no deal, according to Southam. Labour, apparently, want to avoid any outcome apart from no deal.
Corbyn is doing nothing to stop no deal. Look at what he does not the script he reads.
Yes but this is provoking a strong backlash already, from MPs and members
Not the members. There is literally nothing that Corbyn could do that would alienate him from them.
If you think there aren't tons of Labour members unhappy (and more) at Labours vacuity and masterful inactivity on Brexit, then you are so gripped by PB that you aren't dropping by other political forums.
There are tens of thousands of Labour members in total despair. I speak to them all the time. I know them. They are my friends. But they are a minority.
Tony Blair is the most clear thinking politician we have ever had. Even now he makes the rest sound self serving confused or stupid. For an explanation which makes sense switch onto radio 4 and listen to his whole interview
Yes, he is. He's not always right (Iraq! PFI!) but he thinks clearly and puts his case vigorously. I don't dislike Mrs May but after two years I'm little the wiser on what she actually wants.
Ken Clarke is ahead of him, imo, but both are like grown-ups in a room full of children.
So much for helping 'facilitate' things. Couldn't even be arsed to fig leaf it. They really have given up on the deal have their eggs in the Remain basket if They wont even try some classic last minute EU fudge.
What excuse does May have for not holding the MV now?
I have a lot of sympathy with the EU on this. They're negotiating with a blancmange.
EU announced tonight Bits to pay 7EUR for travel visa last three years. Great negotiating TM.
Irrelevant - we wont leave now
How? No deal is default and parliament is deadlocked.
We both know no deal will be stopped
Do we? How?
A way will be found. Likely Article 50 being revoked or suspended. There is no way a Remain parliament and a Remain establishment is going to let No Deal happen. Simply no chance.
I fear a big part of Labour's strategy would allow us to fall from the cliff provided it is the Tories who get the blame.
Then should not the Tories step away from the edge?
Corbyn could "reluctantly for the national interest" agree to abstain on the meaningful vote adding that he will test the confidence of the house after such a move. If the DUP stay true to their word then he gets a GE. If they back the Tories he could hold a national exec where A50 revocation is agreed and block the further legislation needed for the WA dependant on a second referendum. OK so it is playing games to some degree, but the DUP would have to back the deal which seems unlikely. That would be far more responsible than just digging in with the current impasse.
It’s a theoretical possibility, but seems unlikely to me. It would actually be a statesmanlike thing to do. I’d be interested in Nick Palmer’s opinion of this.
Presumably that no, the eu would definitely still negotiate as labour care less about the EU.
But push comes to shove labour will back remain. Now May was right all along about the EU not being helpful support for it will only increase.
Does anyone seriously think there aren't already draft Revocation Bills in desk draws all over Westminster ? If we are heading toward no deal in March one or two of them will be introduced and the Lords version will pass. Which means if the government wants no deal it will have to vote for no deal in the Commons by at least denying the Lords bill time and/or the SNP/PC/LD/Green Commons version. The CJEU ruling means the Commons is going to have to vote for no deal.
200 Tory MPs now regretting they didn’t boot May out when they had the chance, after the EU give her the usual two fingered salute over the backstop. What a shower. That’s any chance of Tory unity being restored gone, any chance of rebuilding bridges with the DUP gone, any chance of fending off a VNOC gone. They deserve a Corbyn Gov. Just a shame they are going to inflict Corbyn on the rest of us.
What price a General Election in March. Still, at least Brenda in Bristol didn’t have one this year. She must be getting withdrawal symptoms.
A no deal Brexit is looking more likely every day and every day this pathetic Giv refuses to prepare properly for it. The electorate will never forgive them. The Tory Party must surely split now if there is to be sane party in British politics. Let the muppets like Soubry, Allen, Morgan etc go off to the LibDems or join Umnunna, Cooper, Kendall is a new SDP.
It really is unreal that people call the WTO faction the irresponsible ones. They're not the ones who wasted 2 years of preparation time and at the same time killed their own negotiation because there was never a plausible threat of walking away. Its been Cameron's negotiation part 2.
I cannot see how we do not go to No Deal from here.
The Labour leadership wants to avoid a referendum at all costs because a Tory-owned No Deal is its absolute priority. May will never compromise on freedom of movement and will not countenance any move by Parliament that puts the possibility of ending it at risk.
The only thing that might change the equation is overwhelming public pressure and I see little sign of that.
Start stocking up.
The EU Court has said we can unilaterally revoke Brexit. It would be the government's choice to let No Deal happen.
Yep - and I think the government will choose to do that because Labour will do all it can to avoid any other outcome.
If Labour want to avoid that outcome then they could back the deal, with amendments or conditions if needs be on future trade arrangements or voting.
Same goes for the ERG. They are both being supremely irresponsible.
I think you misunderstand Southam. Labour are massive supporters of no deal, according to Southam. Labour, apparently, want to avoid any outcome apart from no deal.
Corbyn is doing nothing to stop no deal. Look at what he does not the script he reads.
So what counterproductive action should he currently be taking?
Interrupting the Tories as they are tearing each other apart?
Or making the line May keeps using about Corbyn trying to stop Brexit true?
May has to come around the idea of a second referendum by other things being ruled out.
It is not in Labours interest to give them an easy target and distract them from the journey they must take. It is not in Labours interest to fight the next election with the Tories running a blame narrative. The government will have to come to the decision and Labour will support them on it.
Tony Blair is the most clear thinking politician we have ever had. Even now he makes the rest sound self serving confused or stupid. For an explanation which makes sense switch onto radio 4 and listen to his whole interview
It is easy to be clear thinking when you hold the electorate in such contempt. I believe it is called megalomania.
200 Tory MPs now regretting they didn’t boot May out when they had the chance, after the EU give her the usual two fingered salute over the backstop. What a shower. That’s any chance of Tory unity being restored gone, any chance of rebuilding bridges with the DUP gone, any chance of fending off a VNOC gone. They deserve a Corbyn Gov. Just a shame they are going to inflict Corbyn on the rest of us.
What price a General Election in March. Still, at least Brenda in Bristol didn’t have one this year. She must be getting withdrawal symptoms.
A no deal Brexit is looking more likely every day and every day this pathetic Giv refuses to prepare properly for it. The electorate will never forgive them. The Tory Party must surely split now if there is to be sane party in British politics. Let the muppets like Soubry, Allen, Morgan etc go off to the LibDems or join Umnunna, Cooper, Kendall is a new SDP.
It really is unreal that people call the WTO faction the irresponsible ones. They're not the ones who wasted 2 years of preparation time and at the same time killed their own negotiation because there was never a plausible threat of walking away. Its been Cameron's negotiation part 2.
At Salzburg the EU leaders treated Theresa May dreadfully. Last night she got the treatment she deserved. If you sign a deal, then ask for a renegotiation, then do not articulate what you actually substantively want, you are going to be monstered.
It's worse when you add the real context:
* Wasting time * Prolonging uncertainty for millions of people whose lives could be screwed in just a few months * To close down options that might solve the problem * With no apparent benefit except to sustain herself in office a little bit longer * By wasting the time of 27 national leaders with more serious problems to deal with
She got off lightly.
Tories and Labour both rejected the deal because they wanted different 're negotiations . Trying to do that was clearly about sustaining herself in office but it was also what those in parliament have demanded she do.
Yes May is further humiliated as the EU, keen for remain, couldn't even bother to hide their contempt, but May was doing what the mps and parliament wanted.
I cannot see how we do not go to No Deal from here.
The Labour leadership wants to avoid a referendum at all costs because a Tory-owned No Deal is its absolute priority. May will never compromise on freedom of movement and will not countenance any move by Parliament that puts the possibility of ending it at risk.
The only thing that might change the equation is overwhelming public pressure and I see little sign of that.
Start stocking up.
The EU Court has said we can unilaterally revoke Brexit. It would be the government's choice to let No Deal happen.
Yep - and I think the government will choose to do that because Labour will do all it can to avoid any other outcome.
If Labour want to avoid that outcome then they could back the deal, with amendments or conditions if needs be on future trade arrangements or voting.
Same goes for the ERG. They are both being supremely irresponsible.
I think you misunderstand Southam. Labour are massive supporters of no deal, according to Southam. Labour, apparently, want to avoid any outcome apart from no deal.
The Labour leadership is not Labour. The problem is that it controls Labour.
TBH the Labour leadership wants no deal as much as the rest of the party, you see the centrists think they can blame no deal on Corbyn and the Tories... etc.
200 Tory MPs now regretting they didn’t boot May out when they had the chance, after the EU give her the usual two fingered salute over the backstop. What a shower. That’s any chance of Tory unity being restored gone, any chance of rebuilding bridges with the DUP gone, any chance of fending off a VNOC gone. They deserve a Corbyn Gov. Just a shame they are going to inflict Corbyn on the rest of us.
What price a General Election in March. Still, at least Brenda in Bristol didn’t have one this year. She must be getting withdrawal symptoms.
A no deal Brexit is looking more likely every day and every day this pathetic Giv refuses to prepare properly for it. The electorate will never forgive them. The Tory Party must surely split now if there is to be sane party in British politics. Let the muppets like Soubry, Allen, Morgan etc go off to the LibDems or join Umnunna, Cooper, Kendall is a new SDP.
It really is unreal that people call the WTO faction the irresponsible ones. They're not the ones who wasted 2 years of preparation time and at the same time killed their own negotiation because there was never a plausible threat of walking away. Its been Cameron's negotiation part 2.
If the WTO faction had their way we would not even have got May's Deal but gone straight to No Deal and been about the only major economy in the world without a trade agreement with its largest market
Mr. Walker, I agree with you. And with Mr. Meeks. I'm not an EU fan but I simply don't trust May, and I sympathise with them trying to negotiate with her.
She should've known her deal was a non-starter. Maybe she did.
200 Tory MPs now regretting they didn’t boot May out when they had the chance, after the EU give her the usual two fingered salute over the backstop. What a shower. That’s any chance of Toryunity beingrestored gine, any chance of rebuilding bridges with the DUP gone, any chance of fending off a VNOC gine. They deserve a Corbyn Gov. Just a shame they are going to inflict Calamity Corbyn on the rest of us.
What price a General Election in March. Still, at least Brenda in Bristol didn’t have one this year. She must be getting withdrawal symptoms.
A no deal Brexit is looking more likely every day and every day this pathetic Giv refuses to prepare properly for it. The electorate will never forgive them. The Tory Party must surely split now if there is to be sane party in British politics. Let the muppets like Soubry, Allen Morgan go off to the LibDems or join Umnunna, Cooper, Kendall is a new SDP.
It is No Deal Brexit that opens the door to Corbyn and the EU have confirmed again they aim to have have completed an agreement by the end of 2020 so the backstop is not triggered.
However of cause if Corbyn does get it No Deal will not last long, Corbyn will agree to permanent Customs Union as per Labour policy and most likely permanent Customs Union too as the SNP will demand in return for confidence and supply. So by rejecting May's Deal hardliners like you will just end up with BINO in the end ( though the Tories may go on a more hard line position in opposition under Boris)
It’s May and her incompetence making a Corbyn Gov more likely. Neither May’s word nor that of the EU has been good for anything thus far so why would that change. May has surrendered in every issue she is so weak and inept. Once we’ve parted with our £ 39 bn and are in the Withdrawal agreement we’re trapped. It’s either agree to EU dictated terms on trade of Exeter the backstop in perpetuity. That shouldn’t appeal to anyone - Leaver or Remainer.
A permanent customs union is worthless. Might as well stay in the EU and revoke Article 50 as do that and Corbyn makes up policy on the hoof. Starmer might want a permanent customs union but that doesn’t make it Labour policy. Corbyn and McDonnell are so shallow they’ll just say anything g to get an election and power. No one in their right minds is going to trust them.
I cannot see how we do not go to No Deal from here.
The Labour leadership wants to avoid a referendum at all costs because a Tory-owned No Deal is its absolute priority. May will never compromise on freedom of movement and will not countenance any move by Parliament that puts the possibility of ending it at risk.
The only thing that might change the equation is overwhelming public pressure and I see little sign of that.
Start stocking up.
The EU Court has said we can unilaterally revoke Brexit. It would be the government's choice to let No Deal happen.
Yep - and I think the government will choose to do that because Labour will do all it can to avoid any other outcome.
If Labour want to avoid that outcome then they could back the deal, with amendments or conditions if needs be on future trade arrangements or voting.
Same goes for the ERG. They are both being supremely irresponsible.
I think you misunderstand Southam. Labour are massive supporters of no deal, according to Southam. Labour, apparently, want to avoid any outcome apart from no deal.
The Labour leadership is not Labour. The problem is that it controls Labour.
TBH the Labour leadership wants no deal as much as the rest of the party, you see the centrists think they can blame no deal on Corbyn and the Tories... etc.
Conspiracy theories are fun!
I am getting confused. So apart from the sane ones on PB, who doesn't want No Deal?
Ian, Southam: I probably talk to more Labour members from all parts of the party than either of you - forums aren't the best guide to average thinking. For many it's a second order issue - they usually don't see any problem in remaining and see the whole issue as flat-earthism, or in a few cases they'd prefer to leave, but primarily they want to get the government out as they think its obsession with Brexit is letting every other problem fester. For those who feel strongly, the great majority are Remain, as the polls show. Those are divided into some who feel exasperated by leadership caution and those who reluctantly feel it's necessary. But there isn't some burning revolt poised to explode.
Where I think Labour is missing a trick is in stating an alternative strategy simply - probably "We'd govern for 6 months. We'd accept fully integrated trade, throwing out the customs union red line, and then we'd offer a referendum choosing that or leaving with a minimal deal or simply remaining; we'd then call a fresh election to decide who should govern for the next 5 years". I think even Corbyn-haters might find that a package they could live with.
At Salzburg the EU leaders treated Theresa May dreadfully. Last night she got the treatment she deserved. If you sign a deal, then ask for a renegotiation, then do not articulate what you actually substantively want, you are going to be monstered.
It's worse when you add the real context:
* Wasting time * Prolonging uncertainty for millions of people whose lives could be screwed in just a few months * To close down options that might solve the problem * With no apparent benefit except to sustain herself in office a little bit longer * By wasting the time of 27 national leaders with more serious problems to deal with
She got off lightly.
Tories and Labour both rejected the deal because they wanted different 're negotiations . Trying to do that was clearly about sustaining herself in office but it was also what those in parliament have demanded she do.
Yes May is further humiliated as the EU, keen for remain, couldn't even bother to hide their contempt, but May was doing what the mps and parliament wanted.
No she isn't.
They wanted a meaningful vote, but she cancelled it when it appeared to be going badly. Without that vote, we cannot say what they wanted, although the likelihood is that it would have indicated her tour of Europe was pointless.
EUCO have given May an even more brutal rebuff than at Salzburg.
As predicted, the draft addendum has been salami sliced till there's nothing left. I think EUCO are trying to send May a message: "WHICH PART OF THE DEAL IS FINAL DO YOU NOT UNDERSTAND?"
So even the EU affirm the backstop is an insurance only and they intend to start work on an Agreement in 2020, all the rest is just petty party politics games, there is nothing May can do that will get ERG hardliners behind the Deal, if she is to get it through it will be with Labour MPs in Leave seats
Well yes, we could all have told her that. But this communique actually puts her into a worse position than she started in. A remarkable achievement, even for her.
It doesn't actually
She told her party she was going to get "legally binding assurance" about the backstop being undesirable for the EU too. They actually removed that text, and replaced it with text affirming the backstop is there to protect the single market.
Not only has May not gotten what she promised on the backstop from her party or the DUP, she's actually gottent the EUCO to re-affirm their support for it!
This has contrived to make May's impossible parliamentary arithmetic even harder, because she's now lied to her party and DUP (again) about the backstop, and suffered what is being widely reported as a "rebuff", "humiliation", "Salzburg 2.0" and my personal favorite, "diplomatic disaster".
It does seem to have gone even worse than she could have imagined. Other than trying to bolster remain I don't know why the EU would be so blunt and personally attack May given she didn't want to go in the first place she was forced parliament, and while they were always going to say no they could have bought her a few weeks. But now they should voted in the MV today as no pretext was provided for delaying.
Essential to Tony Blair's position on Today this morning is that the EU has to offer the UK something on FoM very like the offer they conspicuously did not make to David Cameron - which would have led to a very different outcome in 2016. While I am sure they should do exactly that, and hope they will, it would be hard to disguise in that scenario the absolute folly of events prior to Mrs May becoming PM.
At Salzburg the EU leaders treated Theresa May dreadfully. Last night she got the treatment she deserved. If you sign a deal, then ask for a renegotiation, then do not articulate what you actually substantively want, you are going to be monstered.
It's worse when you add the real context:
* Wasting time * Prolonging uncertainty for millions of people whose lives could be screwed in just a few months * To close down options that might solve the problem * With no apparent benefit except to sustain herself in office a little bit longer * By wasting the time of 27 national leaders with more serious problems to deal with
She got off lightly.
Tories and Labour both rejected the deal because they wanted different 're negotiations . Trying to do that was clearly about sustaining herself in office but it was also what those in parliament have demanded she do.
Yes May is further humiliated as the EU, keen for remain, couldn't even bother to hide their contempt, but May was doing what the mps and parliament wanted.
No she isn't.
They wanted a meaningful vote, but she cancelled it when it appeared to be going badly. Without that vote, we cannot say what they wanted, although the likelihood is that it would have indicated her tour of Europe was pointless.
Maybe she is really close to getting her Platinum Airmiles Membership and wants to make sure she qualifies before she is voted out.
200 Tory MPs now regretting they didn’t boot May out when they had the chance, after the EU give her the usual two fingered salute over the backstop. What a shower. That’s any chance of Tory unity being restored gone, any chance of rebuilding bridges with the DUP gone, any chance of fending off a VNOC gone. They deserve a Corbyn Gov. Just a shame they are going to inflict Corbyn on the rest of us.
What price a General Election in March. Still, at least Brenda in Bristol didn’t have one this year. She must be getting withdrawal symptoms.
A no deal Brexit is looking more likely every day and every day this pathetic Giv refuses to prepare properly for it. The electorate will never forgive them. The Tory Party must surely split now if there is to be sane party in British politics. Let the muppets like Soubry, Allen, Morgan etc go off to the LibDems or join Umnunna, Cooper, Kendall is a new SDP.
It really is unreal that people call the WTO faction the irresponsible ones. They're not the ones who wasted 2 years of preparation time and at the same time killed their own negotiation because there was never a plausible threat of walking away. Its been Cameron's negotiation part 2.
Get real.
That is the reality Ian. How could we negotiate successfully when No deal was not even being prepared for? Even fake preparations would have been worth spending some money on. But once again, there was no credible way we could walk away. Indeed, since the alternative actually seems to have been 'no Brexit', that is actively incentivising the EU to provide a poor deal.
Arriving at Valletta airport there were three entry doors. Shengen EU/EEC Other. Speaking to several people before the closing ceremony for this years European City of Culture I suspect if the British Leavers could put some context what this wonderful European entity is all about they would have seen things differently and probably wanted to have gone in more wholeheartedly.
As it is I really feel the reputation of the English in particular has taken a huge hit and one which will take a long time to recover from. Rather like Trump has tarnished many values felt about Americans this has done the same to the British though moreso because our reputation started at a higher level
Maybe but as the rise of gilets jaunes, Le Pen, Salvini and Lega Nord, the AfD, the Swedish Democrats, Vox end shows continental Europe is not immune to the populist anti immigration right either
Roger lives in a Provencal bubble - he has zero understanding of the real world of ordinary folk in any European country.
At Salzburg the EU leaders treated Theresa May dreadfully. Last night she got the treatment she deserved. If you sign a deal, then ask for a renegotiation, then do not articulate what you actually substantively want, you are going to be monstered.
It's worse when you add the real context:
* Wasting time * Prolonging uncertainty for millions of people whose lives could be screwed in just a few months * To close down options that might solve the problem * With no apparent benefit except to sustain herself in office a little bit longer * By wasting the time of 27 national leaders with more serious problems to deal with
She got off lightly.
Tories and Labour both rejected the deal because they wanted different 're negotiations . Trying to do that was clearly about sustaining herself in office but it was also what those in parliament have demanded she do.
Yes May is further humiliated as the EU, keen for remain, couldn't even bother to hide their contempt, but May was doing what the mps and parliament wanted.
No she isn't.
They wanted a meaningful vote, but she cancelled it when it appeared to be going badly. Without that vote, we cannot say what they wanted, although the likelihood is that it would have indicated her tour of Europe was pointless.
Which us why pulling the vote was so stupid as i said at the time but we have the official labour policy of renegotiate and dozens of Tories asking for it too. So no there's no vote to prove it but yes, we do know they wanted renegotiation, it's phoney to say it is not clear what they wanted.
I cannot see how we do not go to No Deal from here.
The Labour leadership wants to avoid a referendum at all costs because a Tory-owned No Deal is its absolute priority. May will never compromise on freedom of movement and will not countenance any move by Parliament that puts the possibility of ending it at risk.
The only thing that might change the equation is overwhelming public pressure and I see little sign of that.
Start stocking up.
The EU Court has said we can unilaterally revoke Brexit. It would be the government's choice to let No Deal happen.
Yep - and I think the government will choose to do that because Labour will do all it can to avoid any other outcome.
If Labour want to avoid that outcome then they could back the deal, with amendments or conditions if needs be on future trade arrangements or voting.
Same goes for the ERG. They are both being supremely irresponsible.
I think you misunderstand Southam. Labour are massive supporters of no deal, according to Southam. Labour, apparently, want to avoid any outcome apart from no deal.
The Labour leadership is not Labour. The problem is that it controls Labour.
TBH the Labour leadership wants no deal as much as the rest of the party, you see the centrists think they can blame no deal on Corbyn and the Tories... etc.
Conspiracy theories are fun!
I am getting confused. So apart from the sane ones on PB, who doesn't want No Deal?
They are all in on it and we are just pawns in their game!!
Ian, Southam: I probably talk to more Labour members from all parts of the party than either of you - forums aren't the best guide to average thinking. For many it's a second order issue - they usually don't see any problem in remaining and see the whole issue as flat-earthism, or in a few cases they'd prefer to leave, but primarily they want to get the government out as they think its obsession with Brexit is letting every other problem fester. For those who feel strongly, the great majority are Remain, as the polls show. Those are divided into some who feel exasperated by leadership caution and those who reluctantly feel it's necessary. But there isn't some burning revolt poised to explode.
Where I think Labour is missing a trick is in stating an alternative strategy simply - probably "We'd govern for 6 months. We'd accept fully integrated trade, throwing out the customs union red line, and then we'd offer a referendum choosing that or leaving with a minimal deal or simply remaining; we'd then call a fresh election to decide who should govern for the next 5 years". I think even Corbyn-haters might find that a package they could live with.
Thanks Nick. You're right. We now need a clear plan. The £1M question is will Corbyn do that, indeed can he do that?
Ian, Southam: I probably talk to more Labour members from all parts of the party than either of you - forums aren't the best guide to average thinking. For many it's a second order issue - they usually don't see any problem in remaining and see the whole issue as flat-earthism, or in a few cases they'd prefer to leave, but primarily they want to get the government out as they think its obsession with Brexit is letting every other problem fester. For those who feel strongly, the great majority are Remain, as the polls show. Those are divided into some who feel exasperated by leadership caution and those who reluctantly feel it's necessary. But there isn't some burning revolt poised to explode.
Where I think Labour is missing a trick is in stating an alternative strategy simply - probably "We'd govern for 6 months. We'd accept fully integrated trade, throwing out the customs union red line, and then we'd offer a referendum choosing that or leaving with a minimal deal or simply remaining; we'd then call a fresh election to decide who should govern for the next 5 years". I think even Corbyn-haters might find that a package they could live with.
Nick, what we do not have at the moment is any notion that Labour will do all it can to prevent a No Deal Brexit. There is a majority in the House of Commons to prevent one, but it needs Labour to lead. Labour is not doing that. Everything else is detail right now.
The problem you have there is how do Parliament revoke when that cannot be done without the agreement if the Executive. Scott was contending the other night that the Executive can do it on their own. Now I think he is incorrect but what no one has argued is that Parliament can do it on their own without the agreement of the Executive.
So how do you see us getting to a position where we can revoke as long as the Tories remain in control of the Executive?
Dos the humble address, legal advice, contempt of Parliament episode demonstrate that Parliament can force the Executive to do things it doesn't want to?
Mr. Walker, I agree with you. And with Mr. Meeks. I'm not an EU fan but I simply don't trust May, and I sympathise with them trying to negotiate with her.
She should've known her deal was a non-starter. Maybe she did.
That mistrust is widely shared, Morris.
She says she will not allow No Deal, but then she said she wouldn't call a General Election. She also promised a Meaningful Vote. Can we trust her No Deal promise?
EUCO have given May an even more brutal rebuff than at Salzburg.
As predicted, the draft addendum has been salami sliced till there's nothing left. I think EUCO are trying to send May a message: "WHICH PART OF THE DEAL IS FINAL DO YOU NOT UNDERSTAND?"
So even the EU affirm the backstop is an insurance only and they intend to start work on an Agreement in 2020, all the rest is just petty party politics games, there is nothing May can do that will get ERG hardliners behind the Deal, if she is to get it through it will be with Labour MPs in Leave seats
Well yes, we could all have told her that. But this communique actually puts her into a worse position than she started in. A remarkable achievement, even for her.
It doesn't actually
She told her party she was going to get "legally binding assurance" about the backstop being undesirable for the EU too. They actually removed that text, and replaced it with text affirming the backstop is there to protect the single market.
Not only has May not gotten what she promised on the backstop from her party or the DUP, she's actually gottent the EUCO to re-affirm their support for it!
This has contrived to make May's impossible parliamentary arithmetic even harder, because she's now lied to her party and DUP (again) about the backstop, and suffered what is being widely reported as a "rebuff", "humiliation", "Salzburg 2.0" and my personal favorite, "diplomatic disaster".
It does seem to have gone even worse than she could have imagined. Other than trying to bolster remain I don't know why the EU would be so blunt and personally attack May given she didn't want to go in the first place she was forced parliament, and while they were always going to say no they could have bought her a few weeks. But now they should voted in the MV today as no pretext was provided for delaying.
Is it because they are as fed up with this shitshow as the rest of us?
Realpolitik suggests that May is a lame duck and that there is simply no Deal which will get through Parliament. 118 “extremists” and 10 DUPers will put pay to that.
The EU needed to tell May to stop fucking about and find a cross-party solution. She has all the tools necessary to do so (inc A50 extension, A50 revocation, referendum, making the customs union permanent etc).
I cannot see how we do not go to No Deal from here.
The Labour leadership wants to avoid a referendum at all costs because a Tory-owned No Deal is its absolute priority. May will never compromise on freedom of movement and will not countenance any move by Parliament that puts the possibility of ending it at risk.
The only thing that might change the equation is overwhelming public pressure and I see little sign of that.
Start stocking up.
Given you said in the past that the Labour leadership did not want power, whereas clearly they do and Nick has heard from him and others that know him that he voted remain I'm not sure I buy into your Corbyn wants no deal most of all ideas. With the greatest of respect you don't seem to be that great at identifying what actually motivates the left but instead go with a negative impression that suits your biases...
Corbyn has the fence so far up his arse, Donald Trump has suggested shipping him to Mexico
A General Election solves nothing.
Exactly. there are several not great options before us but which solve more than that one. If labour got off the fence maybe, but if you're not promising a clear new direction it's actively harmful as a waste of time.
So much for helping 'facilitate' things. Couldn't even be arsed to fig leaf it. They really have given up on the deal have their eggs in the Remain basket if They wont even try some classic last minute EU fudge.
What excuse does May have for not holding the MV now?
I have a lot of sympathy with the EU on this. They're negotiating with a blancmange.
Well yes, we could all have told her that. But this communique actually puts her into a worse position than she started in. A remarkable achievement, even for her.
It doesn't actually
She told her party she was going to get "legally binding assurance" about the backstop being undesirable for the EU too. They actually removed that text, and replaced it with text affirming the backstop is there to protect the single market.
Not only has May not gotten what she promised on the backstop from her party or the DUP, she's actually gottent the EUCO to re-affirm their support for it!
This has contrived to make May's impossible parliamentary arithmetic even harder, because she's now lied to her party and DUP (again) about the backstop, and suffered what is being widely reported as a "rebuff", "humiliation", "Salzburg 2.0" and my personal favorite, "diplomatic disaster".
It does seem to have gone even worse than she could have imagined. Other than trying to bolster remain I don't know why the EU would be so blunt and personally attack May given she didn't want to go in the first place she was forced parliament, and while they were always going to say no they could have bought her a few weeks. But now they should voted in the MV today as no pretext was provided for delaying.
Is it because they are as fed up with this shitshow as the rest of us?
Realpolitik suggests that May is a lame duck and that there is simply no Deal which will get through Parliament. 118 “extremists” and 10 DUPers will put pay to that.
The EU needed to tell May to stop fucking about and find a cross-party solution. She has all the tools necessary to do so (inc A50 extension, A50 revocation, referendum, making the customs union permanent etc).
If anything putting a stop to this now makes a solution more likely. May doesn't really have excuses or vague words to add, we know where we stand. So now there is more chance of figuring out where we go from here with more time available.
Nick, what we do not have at the moment is any notion that Labour will do all it can to prevent a No Deal Brexit. There is a majority in the House of Commons to prevent one, but it needs Labour to lead. Labour is not doing that. Everything else is detail right now.
True. Owen Jones is a useful outrider for the leadership on this:
Comments
The ECJ ruling has removed the fig leaf that this potential route isn't their preferred choice. Now it is. And the EU will clearly extend A50 for a referendum if we ask.
I'm talking about a decision by the UK to rescind A50.
Corbyn has repeatedly publicly stated he voted Remain, not least when Owen Smith accused him of being a leaver during the leadership hustings.
The problem is Corbyn also has a massive credibility gap. He's told so many lies about his politics over the years - tuition fees, wreaths, terrorism, Venezuela etc. - that it's difficult to take pretty much anything he says on trust. And his actions - from the campaign itself to setting conditions that can only be fulfilled by Remaining (which he has ruled out) or rewriting the space-time continuum do not inspire confidence that he isn't simply intriguing for no deal.
The irony to my mind is that Corbyn constantly inveighs against Blair and lambasts him but actually they're very similar in crucial ways - they're both utterly unprincipled opportunists and populists who think the truth is an optional extra to be ignored when inconvenient, but whose supporters have a starry-eyed enthusiasm for them that bears no resemblance to the facts. They just happen to have slightly different political starting points.
Shrug. #FacebookAnecdotes eh?
Anyone who can predict what happens next could do rather well in the markets.
I think the one thing of which we can be certain is that Mordaunt really should succeed May.
The only way you negotiate with them now rather than years down the line is with an extension, which they will offer for a GE but I don't think it will be the 2 year timeframe May had before she called GE'17.
If in the timeframe they gave you progress was going really well on a different deal they may be happy to keep that going but it might be a stretch.
When the EU said they will offer an extension for a GE or referendum did they have in mind the GE producing a leader wanted a different deal or just wanting to revoke article 50?
I'll get my coat...
(It really is time to dump Vince and elect Jo Swinson or, better, Layla Moran.)
I think they are actually generally more scared about being seen to act against the result of the referendum, apart from the ERG faction who are effectively controlling the prospect of a no deal outcome (and largely mad).
If we want to let the ERG dictate that, then parliament has gone collectively crazy. Probably a poetic denouement in some ways.
You don't like Corbyn and think he is always lying and bad and so on and so forth for all it means I may as well ask some passionate left wing miner from around the strike period to give me an assessment of Thatcher. It does strike me that you are probably as bad as the most deluded Corbynista in your views on him but from the completely opposite angle.
PS: These arses get paid shedloads to make decisions, supposedly.
(I'd love it if a Lib Dem activist could say whether this perception is correct.)
Her deal only passes if she literally takes it to the wire. But, that would be holding a gun to the country’s head and would be reprehensible.
Her only hope to salvage Deal, country, and reputation is a referendum on said Deal with Remain as the other option.
She should perhaps, sit out the Referendum, promising that she will depart very shortly thereafter.
She will have performed her duty.
And shown, through her labours, what it really means to govern.
Ambition way in excess of talent seems to be a male thing.
What excuse does May have for not holding the MV now?
What price a General Election in March. Still, at least Brenda in Bristol didn’t have one this year. She must be getting withdrawal symptoms.
A no deal Brexit is looking more likely every day and every day this pathetic Giv refuses to prepare properly for it. The electorate will never forgive them. The Tory Party must surely split now if there is to be sane party in British politics. Let the muppets like Soubry, Allen, Morgan etc go off to the LibDems or join Umnunna, Cooper, Kendall is a new SDP.
If it's accepted, we carry on as BINO. If it's not, we hope and expect, at the very worst, a second referendum as pressure grows on the UK government.
However of cause if Corbyn does get it No Deal will not last long, Corbyn will agree to permanent Customs Union as per Labour policy and most likely permanent Customs Union too as the SNP will demand in return for confidence and supply. So by rejecting May's Deal hardliners like you will just end up with BINO in the end ( though the Tories may go on a more hard line position in opposition under Boris)
So how do you see us getting to a position where we can revoke as long as the Tories remain in control of the Executive?
But push comes to shove labour will back remain. Now May was right all along about the EU not being helpful support for it will only increase.
Interrupting the Tories as they are tearing each other apart?
Or making the line May keeps using about Corbyn trying to stop Brexit true?
May has to come around the idea of a second referendum by other things being ruled out.
It is not in Labours interest to give them an easy target and distract them from the journey they must take. It is not in Labours interest to fight the next election with the Tories running a blame narrative. The government will have to come to the decision and Labour will support them on it.
Yes May is further humiliated as the EU, keen for remain, couldn't even bother to hide their contempt, but May was doing what the mps and parliament wanted.
Conspiracy theories are fun!
She should've known her deal was a non-starter. Maybe she did.
A permanent customs union is worthless. Might as well stay in the EU and revoke Article 50 as do that and Corbyn makes up policy on the hoof. Starmer might want a permanent customs union but that doesn’t make it Labour policy. Corbyn and McDonnell are so shallow they’ll just say anything g to get an election and power. No one in their right minds is going to trust them.
Where I think Labour is missing a trick is in stating an alternative strategy simply - probably "We'd govern for 6 months. We'd accept fully integrated trade, throwing out the customs union red line, and then we'd offer a referendum choosing that or leaving with a minimal deal or simply remaining; we'd then call a fresh election to decide who should govern for the next 5 years". I think even Corbyn-haters might find that a package they could live with.
They wanted a meaningful vote, but she cancelled it when it appeared to be going badly. Without that vote, we cannot say what they wanted, although the likelihood is that it would have indicated her tour of Europe was pointless.
I agree with you on the mood of the membership.
She says she will not allow No Deal, but then she said she wouldn't call a General Election. She also promised a Meaningful Vote. Can we trust her No Deal promise?
Personally I wouldn't want to.
Realpolitik suggests that May is a lame duck and that there is simply no Deal which will get through Parliament. 118 “extremists” and 10 DUPers will put pay to that.
The EU needed to tell May to stop fucking about and find a cross-party solution. She has all the tools necessary to do so (inc A50 extension, A50 revocation, referendum, making the customs union permanent etc).
I do find it interesting people seem to respect May for her dogged determination. It's not a view I share, but is worth noting.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/14/labour-prepare-second-referendum-peoples-vote