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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Raab’s resignation sparks off huge movements on the TMay exit,

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  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    So my feeling is that if the 48 go in, the ERG's best strategy is to say they'll support Javid, possibly for a coronation. I think he's the figure most acceptable to both sides. Even if ditching May doesn't help get a better deal it would avoid the new problem of her being able to squat, unmovable, in Number 10 for a year.

    Everyone should be laying 2019 as May's departure date if they think the threshold will be reached, right?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,728

    Well, I've carefully evaluated the probabilities of all the possible outcomes, and I can confirm that they are all impossible.

    We need an infinite improbability drive ...
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Sooooo, (at least) three more letters in today and we're still at 47.999?
  • TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    I honestly don't know how people like TSE justify voting for Cameron and his referendum over Miliband in 2015.
    Cameron certainly bears the heaviest burden of guilt for the current debacle. May inherited an almost impossible situation; however she took every opportunity to make it worse.
    All of this could have been avoided if Labour had honoured their commitment to hold a referendum on Lisbon.

    If Blair hadn't dicked about the voting system for partisan reasons for European elections UKIP would have never surged.
    I feel so sorry for you and the reasonable Conservatives on this board. I do wonder if the Conservative Party will survive this.
    Of course it will - look we picked a duff leader. It happens. We need a better one.
    It has survived a great many problems over the last couple of centuries. But it may not survive this: it is riven.
    24 hours of Corbyn in Number Ten will almost certainly concentrate minds.
  • Paging PB scientists.

    Can you name me two chemicals/elements that are perfectly harmless on their own but when combined results in danger/disaster.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Well, I've carefully evaluated the probabilities of all the possible outcomes, and I can confirm that they are all impossible.

    Yeah, that's how I've been feeling about this moment for a long time now. I just wish May had brought us here earlier when we still had time to maneuver, rather than can-kicking for so long
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,677

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    I honestly don't know how people like TSE justify voting for Cameron and his referendum over Miliband in 2015.
    Cameron certainly bears the heaviest burden of guilt for the current debacle. May inherited an almost impossible situation; however she took every opportunity to make it worse.
    All of this could have been avoided if Labour had honoured their commitment to hold a referendum on Lisbon.

    If Blair hadn't dicked about the voting system for partisan reasons for European elections UKIP would have never surged.
    I feel so sorry for you and the reasonable Conservatives on this board. I do wonder if the Conservative Party will survive this.
    Of course it will - look we picked a duff leader. It happens. We need a better one.
    It has survived a great many problems over the last couple of centuries. But it may not survive this: it is riven.
    24 hours of Corbyn in Number Ten will almost certainly concentrate minds.
    Especially when he turns out to be good.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    But the Moggster is putting his in.... I doubt he will be alone.
  • RoyalBlue said:

    Sean_F said:

    rpjs said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Well, this is fun, isn’t it?

    Remember when you said only a Leave win would finally unite the Tory party.
    The Leave win was usurped by Remainer May who seeks to thwart us leaving in practice and not in name only.

    A real Leave would eventually finally unite the Tory party. But a real Leave isn't what May has sought.
    Leavers like Royal Blue and Mortimer support this deal, it is the headbangers who ruining this.

    As I predicted they would.
    To be fair to most leavers on this board they seem far more capable of compromise than the diehards in the ERG. The happiest leavers on this board are the Labourites who are cock a hoop with the Gov't being in a proper mess.
    The ERG is more Flash and Thompson rather than Mortimer and Royale.
    Agreed. I don't like Remain, and I don't like a car crash Brexit. But, it looks as if we'll get one of them.
    The ERG are making the same mistake the anti-Treaty IRA made in 1922. They should understand this deal does not get them all that they want, but it does get the single most important thing that they want, an exit from the EU., plus it provides a route for them to get all or most of what they want, just over time.

    Although if Mrs May survives the rest of the week she should probably refrain from taking the ministerial limo on any tours of the backways of deepest Somerset for the forseeable future.
    Deep down, do they even want to leave the EU?
    I have wondered this myself. We need a psychologist to give us the answer.

    I think that’s one profession we don’t have on PB. Think of all the material they’d have to work with...
    Perhaps they are here, just silently taking notes and nodding occasionally.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    John McDonnell: “If we can’t get a general election, yes we will keep a People’s Vote on the table”

    Is Jezza out of the loop now?
    Hey I win about 3 grand if he is somehow next PM :p
    It’s a great time to lay Jezza.

    If May loses, it’s a Tory. If she narrowly wins she’ll go next year, and then it’s a Tory.

    Only Jezza with an early GE.
    Hm. I think Labour will struggle to win a snap election because of the the Lib Dem factor. Lots of Lab voters are anti-Brexit and may switch if the election is before B-day.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,752

    Paging PB scientists.

    Can you name me two chemicals/elements that are perfectly harmless on their own but when combined results in danger/disaster.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vRKK6pliejs
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,677

    Paging PB scientists.

    Can you name me two chemicals/elements that are perfectly harmless on their own but when combined results in danger/disaster.

    Sodium and Water.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628

    Well, I've carefully evaluated the probabilities of all the possible outcomes, and I can confirm that they are all impossible.

    Great day to be an Anarchist.
  • Paging PB scientists.

    Can you name me two chemicals/elements that are perfectly harmless on their own but when combined results in danger/disaster.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vRKK6pliejs
    I wouldn't suggest ingesting lithium to be fair or indeed leaving it even in air
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    Jonathan said:

    It would be fun if after all this they do not get to 48. If I were Brady I would be tempted to say so, just to wind people up.
    He won't have to say so, his continued silence shows they have not (yet) hit 48.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Paging PB scientists.

    Can you name me two chemicals/elements that are perfectly harmless on their own but when combined results in danger/disaster.

    Carbon and nitrogen combine to form cyanide.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,412
    My wife reports that Tim Farron (remember him) is in Kirby Lonsdale at the moment...
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited November 2018
    Gove turns down May's offer to be Brexit Secretary. Rory Stewart might say yes...
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,728
    When the gas supply goes out this cold winter, the memories of the rabid bleatings of leavers blaming everyone else for their decision will keep me toasty warm.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_P said:
    I honestly don't know how people like TSE justify voting for Cameron and his referendum over Miliband in 2015.
    Cameron certainly bears the heaviest burden of guilt for the current debacle. May inherited an almost impossible situation; however she took every opportunity to make it worse.
    All of this could have been avoided if Labour had honoured their commitment to hold a referendum on Lisbon.

    If Blair hadn't dicked about the voting system for partisan reasons for European elections UKIP would have never surged.
    I love the way the Tories try to palm this off onto anyone else, Corbyn, Blair, The EU, UKIP, Bobby Davro, H from Steps, Pope Gregory IX, Morph.
    I love the way Labour is a responsibility-free zone.....
    If the Tories had a scintilla of discipline about them, today could have been made very difficult for Corbyn.
    I suspect the ERG have called this badly wrong, The country simply wants the thing finished and signed. I see no rewards in referendum 2 for them and only bigger downsides. They just dont know when to settle.
    If May wins a No Confidence vote she is unstoppable for a year, if she loses the Deal vote she can then call an EU referendum in January or February on Deal No Deal or Remain which would pass the Commons most likely, Remain would probably win and the ERG end up with nothing
    which ever way you look at it the Tories are unmanageable
    The Tories have learned nothing and forgotten nothing. They need to learn that Tory party is utterly split over Europe and needs to actually split for any of it to survive. But it won't because the will never forget the split over the Corn Laws.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    Paging PB scientists.

    Can you name me two chemicals/elements that are perfectly harmless on their own but when combined results in danger/disaster.

    Sadly, I think Cummingtonite is relatively inert.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Andy_JS said:

    A general election in December would be interesting.

    Too late for that now!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    The ERG are hugely misplaying it.

    Any new leader will presumably rip up the deal and hence they instantly relieve the Labour Party of any dilemma.

    The current Lab dilemma is support the deal or not. If they don't they could be accused of acting against the National interest; if they do, well they support the government and that isn't what an Opposition is supposed to do.

    The ERG looks like it is about to relieve them of that problem. No Labour MP with a pulse would ever vote for a Party with one of the Brex-o-loons in charge and hence Lab can sit back and blame the extreme wing of the party whereas they will hint, they would reluctantly but dutifully have backed May's deal.
  • Paging PB scientists.

    Can you name me two chemicals/elements that are perfectly harmless on their own but when combined results in danger/disaster.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vRKK6pliejs
    Thanks.

    I'll be doing a thread comparing the EU to water and the Tory Party to lithium.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,690

    Pulpstar said:

    Has the ERG concluded its research into Europe yet ?

    Dominic Raab has just informed them that it isn't far from Dover.
    Dominic Raab said he meant to say its Dover not over
  • Pulpstar said:

    Has the ERG concluded its research into Europe yet ?

    Dominic Raab has just informed them that it isn't far from Dover.
    Dominic Raab said he meant to say its Dover not over
    I used to love her
    But it's all Dover now
  • Drove back from meeting listening to Radio 5 - Andrea Jenkyns interview was being replayed.

    Oh dear...
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,677

    Paging PB scientists.

    Can you name me two chemicals/elements that are perfectly harmless on their own but when combined results in danger/disaster.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vRKK6pliejs
    Thanks.

    I'll be doing a thread comparing the EU to water and the Tory Party to lithium.
    Surely you want something where the catalyst is unharmed and the reactive agent completely destroys itself.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    Paging PB scientists.

    Can you name me two chemicals/elements that are perfectly harmless on their own but when combined results in danger/disaster.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vRKK6pliejs
    Thanks.

    I'll be doing a thread comparing the EU to water and the Tory Party to lithium.
    Meh, we had a chemistry teacher who would chuck lumps of sodium into a bucket of water out in the car park.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    eek said:

    My wife reports that Tim Farron (remember him) is in Kirby Lonsdale at the moment...

    Ask her to confirm whether it's true that whenever he stands still, you can hear The Sound of Silence softly playing in the background
  • Paging PB scientists.

    Can you name me two chemicals/elements that are perfectly harmless on their own but when combined results in danger/disaster.

    Carbon and nitrogen combine to form cyanide.
    Damn! Beat me to it!
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Anorak said:

    Gove turns down May's offer to be Brexit Secretary.

    Do we really need a Brexit secretary anymore? Can’t May spend 100% of her time on Brexit until 25th November?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    Paging PB scientists.

    Can you name me two chemicals/elements that are perfectly harmless on their own but when combined results in danger/disaster.

    Tomknoxium and Malbec
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,728

    Paging PB scientists.

    Can you name me two chemicals/elements that are perfectly harmless on their own but when combined results in danger/disaster.

    If you wish to use common household chemicals, cleaning materials with bleach and ammonia in them can be a bad idea.
  • If you think Raab's comment on the channel was eye opening...

    Japan's new cyber-security minister has dumbfounded his country by saying he has never used a computer.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-46222026
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Paging PB scientists.

    Can you name me two chemicals/elements that are perfectly harmless on their own but when combined results in danger/disaster.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vRKK6pliejs
    Thanks.

    I'll be doing a thread comparing the EU to water and the Tory Party to lithium.
    How about the Hindenburg. Full of hydrogen which is pretty harmless in the absence of oxygen. Mix them, and add a spark...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,301

    If you think Raab's comment on the channel was eye opening...

    Japan's new cyber-security minister has dumbfounded his country by saying he has never used a computer.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-46222026

    Makes him pretty secure, I suppose.

  • TOPPING said:

    The ERG are hugely misplaying it.

    Any new leader will presumably rip up the deal and hence they instantly relieve the Labour Party of any dilemma.

    The current Lab dilemma is support the deal or not. If they don't they could be accused of acting against the National interest; if they do, well they support the government and that isn't what an Opposition is supposed to do.

    The ERG looks like it is about to relieve them of that problem. No Labour MP with a pulse would ever vote for a Party with one of the Brex-o-loons in charge and hence Lab can sit back and blame the extreme wing of the party whereas they will hint, they would reluctantly but dutifully have backed May's deal.

    :like:
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    edited November 2018

    Paging PB scientists.

    Can you name me two chemicals/elements that are perfectly harmless on their own but when combined results in danger/disaster.

    Hydrogen & Fluoride

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrogen_fluoride
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,677
    edited November 2018
    We need a steady old hand back in the cabinet.

    Ken Clarke for Brexit Sec.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    TOPPING said:

    The ERG are hugely misplaying it.

    Any new leader will presumably rip up the deal and hence they instantly relieve the Labour Party of any dilemma.

    The current Lab dilemma is support the deal or not. If they don't they could be accused of acting against the National interest; if they do, well they support the government and that isn't what an Opposition is supposed to do.

    The ERG looks like it is about to relieve them of that problem. No Labour MP with a pulse would ever vote for a Party with one of the Brex-o-loons in charge and hence Lab can sit back and blame the extreme wing of the party whereas they will hint, they would reluctantly but dutifully have backed May's deal.

    But... it's not much of a dilemma. They're obviously not going to support it, and they'd be crazy to. I don't think preserving that situation is a high priority for the ERG
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565
    eek said:

    My wife reports that Tim Farron (remember him) is in Kirby Lonsdale at the moment...

    I get the feeling he is having a much better time of things being a stormingly good local MP, than he was as party leader. Good for him.
  • Paging PB scientists.

    Can you name me two chemicals/elements that are perfectly harmless on their own but when combined results in danger/disaster.

    Carbon and nitrogen combine to form cyanide.
    That's the best suggestion. Lithium isn't harmless on its own, but carbon and nitrogen are.
  • Paging PB scientists.

    Can you name me two chemicals/elements that are perfectly harmless on their own but when combined results in danger/disaster.

    Carbon and nitrogen combine to form cyanide.
    Thanks, we have a winner.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,728

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    I honestly don't know how people like TSE justify voting for Cameron and his referendum over Miliband in 2015.
    Cameron certainly bears the heaviest burden of guilt for the current debacle. May inherited an almost impossible situation; however she took every opportunity to make it worse.
    All of this could have been avoided if Labour had honoured their commitment to hold a referendum on Lisbon.

    If Blair hadn't dicked about the voting system for partisan reasons for European elections UKIP would have never surged.
    I feel so sorry for you and the reasonable Conservatives on this board. I do wonder if the Conservative Party will survive this.
    Of course it will - look we picked a duff leader. It happens. We need a better one.
    It has survived a great many problems over the last couple of centuries. But it may not survive this: it is riven.
    24 hours of Corbyn in Number Ten will almost certainly concentrate minds.
    But EU membership will still be festering in the background. You'll have shits like Boris and JRM hanging around in the background, constantly whinging. The opposition and media will play up their every word.

    They're destroying the Conservative Party and good governance of the country.

    In JRM's case, I can understand it: he's insulated from the effects and can afford to hold harmful ideologies dear. It's Boris and his ilk that I have special contempt for: the ones who are doing it to further their own careers.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,752
    Rees-Mogg giving a press conference calling for May to go.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,291

    Paging PB scientists.

    Can you name me two chemicals/elements that are perfectly harmless on their own but when combined results in danger/disaster.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vRKK6pliejs
    Thanks.

    I'll be doing a thread comparing the EU to water and the Tory Party to lithium.
    Perhaps potassium and water. Much bigger bang and absolutely no role in the treatment of the schizophrenia.

  • TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    I honestly don't know how people like TSE justify voting for Cameron and his referendum over Miliband in 2015.
    Cameron certainly bears the heaviest burden of guilt for the current debacle. May inherited an almost impossible situation; however she took every opportunity to make it worse.
    All of this could have been avoided if Labour had honoured their commitment to hold a referendum on Lisbon.

    If Blair hadn't dicked about the voting system for partisan reasons for European elections UKIP would have never surged.
    I feel so sorry for you and the reasonable Conservatives on this board. I do wonder if the Conservative Party will survive this.
    Of course it will - look we picked a duff leader. It happens. We need a better one.
    It has survived a great many problems over the last couple of centuries. But it may not survive this: it is riven.
    24 hours of Corbyn in Number Ten will almost certainly concentrate minds.
    But EU membership will still be festering in the background. You'll have shits like Boris and JRM hanging around in the background, constantly whinging. The opposition and media will play up their every word.

    They're destroying the Conservative Party and good governance of the country.

    In JRM's case, I can understand it: he's insulated from the effects and can afford to hold harmful ideologies dear. It's Boris and his ilk that I have special contempt for: the ones who are doing it to further their own careers.
    they won't have any f**king careers after this.
  • Jonathan said:

    It would be fun if after all this they do not get to 48. If I were Brady I would be tempted to say so, just to wind people up.
    He won't have to say so, his continued silence shows they have not (yet) hit 48.
    No, I think they have. My guess is that he won't announce it until he's had chance to brief May personally and so that she's not ambushed while still in the Commons. Expect something c3pm?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,412

    eek said:

    My wife reports that Tim Farron (remember him) is in Kirby Lonsdale at the moment...

    Ask her to confirm whether it's true that whenever he stands still, you can hear The Sound of Silence softly playing in the background
    Don't need to as the answer is no (we know him from university and after). The only surprise was that Mrs Eek wasn't expecting to see and equally him to see her (thanks to her new job).
  • Paging PB scientists.

    Can you name me two chemicals/elements that are perfectly harmless on their own but when combined results in danger/disaster.

    Rees and Mogg
  • TOPPING said:

    The ERG are hugely misplaying it.

    Any new leader will presumably rip up the deal and hence they instantly relieve the Labour Party of any dilemma.

    The current Lab dilemma is support the deal or not. If they don't they could be accused of acting against the National interest; if they do, well they support the government and that isn't what an Opposition is supposed to do.

    The ERG looks like it is about to relieve them of that problem. No Labour MP with a pulse would ever vote for a Party with one of the Brex-o-loons in charge and hence Lab can sit back and blame the extreme wing of the party whereas they will hint, they would reluctantly but dutifully have backed May's deal.

    Yes, exactly right.

    Plus of course any new leader is going to come back with the same deal, and will face the same parliamentary arithmetic.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,677
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    TOPPING said:

    The ERG are hugely misplaying it.

    Any new leader will presumably rip up the deal and hence they instantly relieve the Labour Party of any dilemma.

    The current Lab dilemma is support the deal or not. If they don't they could be accused of acting against the National interest; if they do, well they support the government and that isn't what an Opposition is supposed to do.

    The ERG looks like it is about to relieve them of that problem. No Labour MP with a pulse would ever vote for a Party with one of the Brex-o-loons in charge and hence Lab can sit back and blame the extreme wing of the party whereas they will hint, they would reluctantly but dutifully have backed May's deal.

    But... it's not much of a dilemma. They're obviously not going to support it, and they'd be crazy to. I don't think preserving that situation is a high priority for the ERG
    I don't think they would have supported it but it is nevertheless a dilemma - witness May today appealing to everyone to act in the national interest.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    TOPPING said:

    The ERG are hugely misplaying it.

    Any new leader will presumably rip up the deal and hence they instantly relieve the Labour Party of any dilemma.

    The current Lab dilemma is support the deal or not. If they don't they could be accused of acting against the National interest; if they do, well they support the government and that isn't what an Opposition is supposed to do.

    The ERG looks like it is about to relieve them of that problem. No Labour MP with a pulse would ever vote for a Party with one of the Brex-o-loons in charge and hence Lab can sit back and blame the extreme wing of the party whereas they will hint, they would reluctantly but dutifully have backed May's deal.

    Indeed. ERG don't know when to stop. Yesterday, was the correct answer.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Paging PB scientists.

    Can you name me two chemicals/elements that are perfectly harmless on their own but when combined results in danger/disaster.

    Hydrogen & Fluoride

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrogen_fluoride
    LZ 129 is my response to the idea that hydrogen is perfectky harmless.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    TOPPING said:

    The ERG are hugely misplaying it.

    Any new leader will presumably rip up the deal and hence they instantly relieve the Labour Party of any dilemma.

    The current Lab dilemma is support the deal or not. If they don't they could be accused of acting against the National interest; if they do, well they support the government and that isn't what an Opposition is supposed to do.

    The ERG looks like it is about to relieve them of that problem. No Labour MP with a pulse would ever vote for a Party with one of the Brex-o-loons in charge and hence Lab can sit back and blame the extreme wing of the party whereas they will hint, they would reluctantly but dutifully have backed May's deal.

    Yes, exactly right.

    Plus of course any new leader is going to come back with the same deal, and will face the same parliamentary arithmetic.
    Personally if I was the EU Id offer less than before to the UK to stop them messing about.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478

    Paging PB scientists.

    Can you name me two chemicals/elements that are perfectly harmless on their own but when combined results in danger/disaster.

    arm and hammer.

    https://tinyurl.com/ya26gmel
  • Remainers are magic,
    Leavers are tragic.
  • TOPPING said:

    The ERG are hugely misplaying it.

    Any new leader will presumably rip up the deal and hence they instantly relieve the Labour Party of any dilemma.

    The current Lab dilemma is support the deal or not. If they don't they could be accused of acting against the National interest; if they do, well they support the government and that isn't what an Opposition is supposed to do.

    The ERG looks like it is about to relieve them of that problem. No Labour MP with a pulse would ever vote for a Party with one of the Brex-o-loons in charge and hence Lab can sit back and blame the extreme wing of the party whereas they will hint, they would reluctantly but dutifully have backed May's deal.

    Yes, exactly right.

    Plus of course any new leader is going to come back with the same deal, and will face the same parliamentary arithmetic.
    Personally if I was the EU Id offer less than before to the UK to stop them messing about.
    I think Rees-Mogg would be happy with the EU offering less. He doesn't want more from the EU he wants less and seems perfectly content to get nothing at all from them and leave on a clean Brexit.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_P said:
    I honestly don't know how people like TSE justify voting for Cameron and his referendum over Miliband in 2015.
    Cameron certainly bears the heaviest burden of guilt for the current debacle. May inherited an almost impossible situation; however she took every opportunity to make it worse.
    All of this could have been avoided if Labour had honoured their commitment to hold a referendum on Lisbon.

    If Blair hadn't dicked about the voting system for partisan reasons for European elections UKIP would have never surged.
    I love the way the Tories try to palm this off onto anyone else, Corbyn, Blair, The EU, UKIP, Bobby Davro, H from Steps, Pope Gregory IX, Morph.
    I love the way Labour is a responsibility-free zone.....
    If the Tories had a scintilla of discipline about them, today could have been made very difficult for Corbyn.
    I suspect the ERG have called this badly wrong, The country simply wants the thing finished and signed. I see no rewards in referendum 2 for them and only bigger downsides. They just dont know when to settle.
    If May wins a No Confidence vote she is unstoppable for a year, if she loses the Deal vote she can then call an EU referendum in January or February on Deal No Deal or Remain which would pass the Commons most likely, Remain would probably win and the ERG end up with nothing
    which ever way you look at it the Tories are unmanageable
    It may end up with Corbyn as PM and permanent Customs Union and a minority Labour government and Boris leader of the Opposition but I think May survives until a general election
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    edited November 2018
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Paging PB scientists.

    Can you name me two chemicals/elements that are perfectly harmless on their own but when combined results in danger/disaster.

    Hydrogen & Fluoride

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrogen_fluoride
    LZ 129 is my response to the idea that hydrogen is perfectky harmless.
    Fair point; fluorine's not so nice either.. Probably why I only got a B in Chemistry O level :lol:

    EDIT: Although... one could argue oxygen was as much to blame for the Hindenburg tragedy.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453


    I think Rees-Mogg would be happy with the EU offering less. He doesn't want more from the EU he wants less and seems perfectly content to get nothing at all from them and leave on a clean Brexit.

    As long as his hedge fund in Dublin is OK...
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,677
    Physics gives the biggest bangs.
  • Jonathan said:

    Physics gives the biggest bangs.

    Particle physics gives me a hadron.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    Scott_P said:
    Smartarse.

    But keep that headline - you'll need it again soon enough.....
  • This was all so utterly predictable. Back in the day, I remember saying buy shares in betrayal. Yep.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    TOPPING said:

    The ERG are hugely misplaying it.

    Any new leader will presumably rip up the deal and hence they instantly relieve the Labour Party of any dilemma.

    The current Lab dilemma is support the deal or not. If they don't they could be accused of acting against the National interest; if they do, well they support the government and that isn't what an Opposition is supposed to do.

    The ERG looks like it is about to relieve them of that problem. No Labour MP with a pulse would ever vote for a Party with one of the Brex-o-loons in charge and hence Lab can sit back and blame the extreme wing of the party whereas they will hint, they would reluctantly but dutifully have backed May's deal.

    Yes, exactly right.

    Plus of course any new leader is going to come back with the same deal, and will face the same parliamentary arithmetic.
    Personally if I was the EU Id offer less than before to the UK to stop them messing about.
    Personally I'm hoping the ECJ rules Art 50 is not revocable. We need to be taught a lesson here.
  • TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    I honestly don't know how people like TSE justify voting for Cameron and his referendum over Miliband in 2015.
    Cameron certainly bears the heaviest burden of guilt for the current debacle. May inherited an almost impossible situation; however she took every opportunity to make it worse.
    All of this could have been avoided if Labour had honoured their commitment to hold a referendum on Lisbon.

    If Blair hadn't dicked about the voting system for partisan reasons for European elections UKIP would have never surged.
    I feel so sorry for you and the reasonable Conservatives on this board. I do wonder if the Conservative Party will survive this.
    Of course it will - look we picked a duff leader. It happens. We need a better one.
    It has survived a great many problems over the last couple of centuries. But it may not survive this: it is riven.
    24 hours of Corbyn in Number Ten will almost certainly concentrate minds.
    But EU membership will still be festering in the background. You'll have shits like Boris and JRM hanging around in the background, constantly whinging. The opposition and media will play up their every word.

    They're destroying the Conservative Party and good governance of the country.

    In JRM's case, I can understand it: he's insulated from the effects and can afford to hold harmful ideologies dear. It's Boris and his ilk that I have special contempt for: the ones who are doing it to further their own careers.
    Sure, it wouldn't be a comfortable truce. They were difficult for Cameron while Brown was PM. Surely though that was a different level of discord to that evident at present? And a Corbyn-led government would be a greater inducement to uneasy unity than even Brown and a deficit well into twelve digits.

    Europe will only cease being an issue for the Conservatives when one side or the other is completely vanquished - but it would be less of an issue if they have an external enemy to unite against.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Paging PB scientists.

    Can you name me two chemicals/elements that are perfectly harmless on their own but when combined results in danger/disaster.

    Hydrogen & Fluoride

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrogen_fluoride
    LZ 129 is my response to the idea that hydrogen is perfectky harmless.
    ON THEIR OWN was the criteria. Without oxygen, hydrogen doesn't do much at all.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    Scott_P said:
    Just means she's not throwing her hat in the ring this time....
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,141

    Paging PB scientists.

    Can you name me two chemicals/elements that are perfectly harmless on their own but when combined results in danger/disaster.

    nail varnish remover + bleach = chloroform
    vinegar + bleach = weak chlorine gas
    kerosene + (concentrated) bleach = big explosion
    alkali metal + water = small explosion
    ammonium nitrite + fuel oil = explosive

    h ttps://abc13.com/health/household-chemicals-you-should-never-mix/1748504/
    h ttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypergolic_propellant
    h ttp://www.bbc.co.uk/schools/gcsebitesize/science/add_ocr_21c/chemical_patterns/elementsrev3.shtml
    h ttps://www.aristatek.com/newsletter/0512December/TechSpeak.aspx
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    The ERG are hugely misplaying it.

    Any new leader will presumably rip up the deal and hence they instantly relieve the Labour Party of any dilemma.

    The current Lab dilemma is support the deal or not. If they don't they could be accused of acting against the National interest; if they do, well they support the government and that isn't what an Opposition is supposed to do.

    The ERG looks like it is about to relieve them of that problem. No Labour MP with a pulse would ever vote for a Party with one of the Brex-o-loons in charge and hence Lab can sit back and blame the extreme wing of the party whereas they will hint, they would reluctantly but dutifully have backed May's deal.

    Yes, exactly right.

    Plus of course any new leader is going to come back with the same deal, and will face the same parliamentary arithmetic.
    Personally if I was the EU Id offer less than before to the UK to stop them messing about.
    Personally I'm hoping the ECJ rules Art 50 is not revocable. We need to be taught a lesson here.
    thats the weakness in all the UK political class arguments, the get a better deal\remain\outright leave arguments assume that the other side is going to fall in to line with their goals. Why should they ?

    UK politics is currently a triumph of hope over experience
  • Scott_P said:
    Just means she's not throwing her hat in the ring this time....
    I think many on pb are reading this wrong and the next leader will be a minister who did not resign. It looks like Leadsom agrees with me, as do Javid and Hunt.
  • "Keep Buggering On" hoping something would turn up to save the day. Churchill's mantra from WWII which was admirable at the time in the circumstances.

    Unfortunately for May and the country it now does massive damage.

    This deal will not pass Parliament. It is irrelevant to your views on Brexit what you think about that, its simply is. So determinedly buggering on to inevitable defeat and burning further time and patience isn't admirable, its stupid.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    viewcode said:

    Paging PB scientists.

    Can you name me two chemicals/elements that are perfectly harmless on their own but when combined results in danger/disaster.

    nail varnish remover + bleach = chloroform
    vinegar + bleach = weak chlorine gas
    kerosene + (concentrated) bleach = big explosion
    alkali metal + water = small explosion
    ammonium nitrite + fuel oil = explosive

    h ttps://abc13.com/health/household-chemicals-you-should-never-mix/1748504/
    h ttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypergolic_propellant
    h ttp://www.bbc.co.uk/schools/gcsebitesize/science/add_ocr_21c/chemical_patterns/elementsrev3.shtml
    h ttps://www.aristatek.com/newsletter/0512December/TechSpeak.aspx
    Please don't google the last on that list.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited November 2018
    viewcode said:

    Paging PB scientists.

    Can you name me two chemicals/elements that are perfectly harmless on their own but when combined results in danger/disaster.

    nail varnish remover + bleach = chloroform
    vinegar + bleach = weak chlorine gas
    kerosene + (concentrated) bleach = big explosion
    alkali metal + water = small explosion
    ammonium nitrite + fuel oil = explosive

    h ttps://abc13.com/health/household-chemicals-you-should-never-mix/1748504/
    h ttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypergolic_propellant
    h ttp://www.bbc.co.uk/schools/gcsebitesize/science/add_ocr_21c/chemical_patterns/elementsrev3.shtml
    h ttps://www.aristatek.com/newsletter/0512December/TechSpeak.aspx
    I would not call bleach "perfectly harmless" on its own, its a hazardous chemical in its own right. Nobody in their right mind would drink it.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    If there is a VONC I think it would force May to say what would happen next if her deal is rejected by parliament. If she won't answer that question or if she answers it and Tory MPs don't like the answer then I think they may well vote her out.
  • This summit on the 25th. It's a lot of work for some quite busy people. Aren't they justified in asking for some evidence that May can command a majority before they go ahead with it?
  • viewcode said:

    Paging PB scientists.

    Can you name me two chemicals/elements that are perfectly harmless on their own but when combined results in danger/disaster.

    nail varnish remover + bleach = chloroform
    vinegar + bleach = weak chlorine gas
    kerosene + (concentrated) bleach = big explosion
    alkali metal + water = small explosion
    ammonium nitrite + fuel oil = explosive

    h ttps://abc13.com/health/household-chemicals-you-should-never-mix/1748504/
    h ttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypergolic_propellant
    h ttp://www.bbc.co.uk/schools/gcsebitesize/science/add_ocr_21c/chemical_patterns/elementsrev3.shtml
    h ttps://www.aristatek.com/newsletter/0512December/TechSpeak.aspx
    Potassium permanganate and glycerin -- probably still available from Boots.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    FTSE's hardly moved but lots of big fallers and risers depending on whether UK or foreign based earnings. Housebuilders and retail banks taking a tonking.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    "Keep Buggering On" hoping something would turn up to save the day. Churchill's mantra from WWII which was admirable at the time in the circumstances.

    Unfortunately for May and the country it now does massive damage.

    This deal will not pass Parliament. It is irrelevant to your views on Brexit what you think about that, its simply is. So determinedly buggering on to inevitable defeat and burning further time and patience isn't admirable, its stupid.

    Yes, May's entire MO has been burning time, and some here have called her the Great Survivor like it's a good thing.

    The one thing that could have made this current situation better is if it had happened nine months ago, when it was already inevitable.
  • chloechloe Posts: 308
    How will some ERG vetted leader achieve something that will pass through parliament?
  • Anorak said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Paging PB scientists.

    Can you name me two chemicals/elements that are perfectly harmless on their own but when combined results in danger/disaster.

    Hydrogen & Fluoride

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrogen_fluoride
    LZ 129 is my response to the idea that hydrogen is perfectky harmless.
    ON THEIR OWN was the criteria. Without oxygen, hydrogen doesn't do much at all.
    I thought hydrogen gas was quite corrosive, that being one of the difficulties with storing it for use in transport?
  • The UK’s scheme for ensuring power supplies during the winter months has been suspended after a ruling by the European court of justice that it constitutes illegal state aid.

    Payments under the £1bn capacity market scheme will be halted until the government can win permission from the European commission to restart it.

    The scheme subsidises owners of coal and gas power stations so the plants are ready to provide emergency backup in times of high demand. It started operating last year to ensure electricity for businesses and homes is available at peak times in winter.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/15/uk-backup-power-subsidies-illegal-european-court-capacity-market
  • Hang on, I'm losing track: Has Penny Mordaunt resigned and been completely forgotten about in the general brouhaha, or is she still in Cabinet?
  • The UK’s scheme for ensuring power supplies during the winter months has been suspended after a ruling by the European court of justice that it constitutes illegal state aid.

    Payments under the £1bn capacity market scheme will be halted until the government can win permission from the European commission to restart it.

    The scheme subsidises owners of coal and gas power stations so the plants are ready to provide emergency backup in times of high demand. It started operating last year to ensure electricity for businesses and homes is available at peak times in winter.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/15/uk-backup-power-subsidies-illegal-european-court-capacity-market

    we got clearance from the European Commission, it's hardly our fault
  • chloe said:

    How will some ERG vetted leader achieve something that will pass through parliament?

    i don't think they've thought that through. Unless they call a GE.
This discussion has been closed.