The UK’s scheme for ensuring power supplies during the winter months has been suspended after a ruling by the European court of justice that it constitutes illegal state aid.
Payments under the £1bn capacity market scheme will be halted until the government can win permission from the European commission to restart it.
The scheme subsidises owners of coal and gas power stations so the plants are ready to provide emergency backup in times of high demand. It started operating last year to ensure electricity for businesses and homes is available at peak times in winter.
"Keep Buggering On" hoping something would turn up to save the day. Churchill's mantra from WWII which was admirable at the time in the circumstances.
Unfortunately for May and the country it now does massive damage.
This deal will not pass Parliament. It is irrelevant to your views on Brexit what you think about that, its simply is. So determinedly buggering on to inevitable defeat and burning further time and patience isn't admirable, its stupid.
Given May's constant refrain that the Brexit vote has to be respected, it looks ever more as though her bloody-minded determination to "Keep Buggering On" can only result in No Deal Brexit. Nothing else will respect the Brexit vote in the time she has left.
You can see why some Brexiteers think it best to keep her in place.
LZ 129 is my response to the idea that hydrogen is perfectky harmless.
ON THEIR OWN was the criteria. Without oxygen, hydrogen doesn't do much at all.
I thought hydrogen gas was quite corrosive, that being one of the difficulties with storing it for use in transport?
You can make an argument that pretty much every element or compound is dangerous to some degree. Witness the water drinking competition "winner" in California, who died from hyponatremia (a.k.a water intoxication).
"Keep Buggering On" hoping something would turn up to save the day. Churchill's mantra from WWII which was admirable at the time in the circumstances.
Unfortunately for May and the country it now does massive damage.
This deal will not pass Parliament. It is irrelevant to your views on Brexit what you think about that, its simply is. So determinedly buggering on to inevitable defeat and burning further time and patience isn't admirable, its stupid.
Given May's constant refrain that the Brexit vote has to be respected, it looks ever more as though her bloody-minded determination to "Keep Buggering On" can only result in No Deal Brexit. Nothing else will respect the Brexit vote in the time she has left.
You can see why some Brexiteers think it best to keep her in place.
May is moving towards calling a referendum if she cannot get her Deal through, note she included No Brexit at all in future options last night as Remain almost certainly beats No Deal in EUref2 based on polling
How will some ERG vetted leader achieve something that will pass through parliament?
i don't think they've thought that through. Unless they call a GE.
What happens if said ERG vetted leader recommends No Deal and Parliament rejects that... Can they not just sit it out and wait for it to happen anyway?
How will some ERG vetted leader achieve something that will pass through parliament?
i don't think they've thought that through. Unless they call a GE.
They're panicking and playing the only card they have left. Let's not mistake it for a great act of strategy. There's a good reason they haven't done this at any time since the Chequers deal was announced.
If there is a VONC I think it would force May to say what would happen next if her deal is rejected by parliament. If she won't answer that question or if she answers it and Tory MPs don't like the answer then I think they may well vote her out.
Most Tory MPs voted Remain remember, only 120 voted Leave and even fewer are ERG
"Keep Buggering On" hoping something would turn up to save the day. Churchill's mantra from WWII which was admirable at the time in the circumstances.
Unfortunately for May and the country it now does massive damage.
This deal will not pass Parliament. It is irrelevant to your views on Brexit what you think about that, its simply is. So determinedly buggering on to inevitable defeat and burning further time and patience isn't admirable, its stupid.
Given May's constant refrain that the Brexit vote has to be respected, it looks ever more as though her bloody-minded determination to "Keep Buggering On" can only result in No Deal Brexit. Nothing else will respect the Brexit vote in the time she has left.
You can see why some Brexiteers think it best to keep her in place.
May is moving towards calling a referendum if she cannot get her Deal through, note she included No Brexit at all in future options last night as Remain almost certainly beats No Deal in EUref2 based on polling
I doubt it if it includes signing up to Schengen and the Euro.
If there is a VONC I think it would force May to say what would happen next if her deal is rejected by parliament. If she won't answer that question or if she answers it and Tory MPs don't like the answer then I think they may well vote her out.
LZ 129 is my response to the idea that hydrogen is perfectky harmless.
ON THEIR OWN was the criteria. Without oxygen, hydrogen doesn't do much at all.
I thought hydrogen gas was quite corrosive, that being one of the difficulties with storing it for use in transport?
You can make an argument that pretty much every element or compound is dangerous to some degree. Witness the water drinking competition "winner" in California, who died from hyponatremia (a.k.a water intoxication).
Yes, the original question was ill-posed, but we can reinterpret it to provide a useful answer by considering relative danger. I'd say that elemental carbon and nitrogen were both less dangerous than elemental hydrogen.
Given that the Cabinet approved the deal yesterday, am I right in thinking that but for Gina Miller's intervention, Mrs. May would now be free to trundle over to Brussels with her signing pen?
LZ 129 is my response to the idea that hydrogen is perfectky harmless.
ON THEIR OWN was the criteria. Without oxygen, hydrogen doesn't do much at all.
I thought hydrogen gas was quite corrosive, that being one of the difficulties with storing it for use in transport?
You can make an argument that pretty much every element or compound is dangerous to some degree. Witness the water drinking competition "winner" in California, who died from hyponatremia (a.k.a water intoxication).
Yes, the original question was ill-posed, but we can reinterpret it to provide a useful answer by considering relative danger. I'd say that elemental carbon and nitrogen were both less dangerous than elemental hydrogen.
Yes, I would agree with that. However it's very, very easy to make oxygen and hydrogen go 'pop', or 'kabooom'.
Creating cyanide is trickier, though not that tricky (it can be done by flowing ammonia over a hot charcoal barbecue).
JRM's point about masses of talent in the Tory ranks is very true. There are some immensely capable people. Raab is an obvious one, which is why Labour went hard at him. There are others who could do a much better job than Theresa May.
The EU is a pretty corrupt, often unaccountable and disunited group. A brilliant politician, properly advised by people who believe in Brexit (i.e. not Ollie Robbins) and with guts will get a MUCH better deal for Britain.
We should enact a 12 month extension on Article 50. A new Tory leader will throw a bone to Remainers by offering that ALL options will be on the table in Parliament i.e. a second vote. That will bring down May and we can sort out this mess once and for all.
In terms of the EU, it's actually not that hard. You just have to stand up to bullies.
We have two real choices aside from the No Deal.
1. Stay in the EU and reform it by the scruff of its neck Trump-style. Why? Because it's in a shambolic state.
or
2. Negotiate a much better deal for Britain and then leave.
Given that the Cabinet approved the deal yesterday, am I right in thinking that but for Gina Miller's intervention, Mrs. May would now be free to trundle over to Brussels with her signing pen?
Gina. Hur hur hur......
it has been a consistent feature of Brexit that so called smart moves end up shooting the instigator in both feet
Given that the Cabinet approved the deal yesterday, am I right in thinking that but for Gina Miller's intervention, Mrs. May would now be free to trundle over to Brussels with her signing pen?
Gina. Hur hur hur......
Wouldn't she be a People's Voter? She certainly wouldn't want this deal, or any other, going through in that case
Blaming Labour for the current mess may make some Tories feel better about themselves but they would probably be better off confronting reality.
It's not Labour's fault that the deal is what it is, clearly. However, if Labour pursue a GE or alternative negotiation and we have no deal as a result, that would be, in part, a consequence of their action, even though the Tories would still be principally at fault. Labour have the votes to sink a deal. It may be the right choice, it may not, but it is within their power.
Brits have spent too much time thinking they are going back in to the Europe of 2016, Merkel et al have too many other problems without extending Brexit. They want it over.
Given that the Cabinet approved the deal yesterday, am I right in thinking that but for Gina Miller's intervention, Mrs. May would now be free to trundle over to Brussels with her signing pen?
Gina. Hur hur hur......
it has been a consistent feature of Brexit that so called smart moves end up shooting the instigator in both feet
Although, of course, it might be that the requirement to get past the HoC has prevented MAy just doing the No Deal thing.
Brits have spent too much time thinking they are going back in to the Europe of 2016, Merkel ey al have too many other problems without extending Brexit. They want it over.
If that was the case the way to get it over with would be to make concessions that would be acceptable to Parliament. They've not done that.
I managed to catch a little of May in the Commons - she reminded me of one of those boxers up against the ropes gloves protecting the head absorbing the blows and hoping to land an occasional counter punch.
For all the accolades from her apologists (many of whom are more terrified of the alternatives), it didn't make for easy viewing.
How will this play out? Naturally, May will have plenty of supporters and plenty will want to blame the EU who seem to have negotiated this well from their side. We aren't used to and we don't like the notion of being humiliated - remember the outrage when we lost to Iceland in the football?
How will the sense of humiliation play out? It could be focussed on the EU and I suspect anti-EU sentiments will be further entrenched - it could be focussed on May who will have to carry the can for what seems in the latter stage to have been a process she very largely owned.
Yet her trump card (poor choice of words I admit) isn't Corbyn but Mark Carney. His apocalyptic briefing on the possible consequences of "No Deal" has shored up her support and has left others questioning whether the consequences of voting down the Deal are so horrendous as to make voting for a bad, unsatisfactory Deal the only option.
The problem is we have left it appallingly late to make proper preparation for No Deal and that is as much a fault of political leadership as not making provision for a LEAVE victory in 2016.
Blaming Labour for the current mess may make some Tories feel better about themselves but they would probably be better off confronting reality.
Same can be said for you and Corbyn's anti-Semitism. Embrace the reality.
I know it can be confusing for Islamophobes such as yourself but Corbyn continuing Ed's policies opposing the occupation of Palestine isn't anti semitism. Embrace the reality
Brits have spent too much time thinking they are going back in to the Europe of 2016, Merkel ey al have too many other problems without extending Brexit. They want it over.
If that was the case the way to get it over with would be to make concessions that would be acceptable to Parliament. They've not done that.
If they make concessions theyll get asked for more. Why would you ?
The only thing which helps May today is it seriosuly reduces the chances of an EU27 member blocking the deal with extra demands of their own. Theyll get leant on.
The thing is, JRM doesn't seem to want No Deal either:
13:47 Rees-Mogg says the government should go back to Brussels and tell them that the UK will leave without a deal, and trade on WTO terms.
It would be sensible to make “a generous offer” to the EU, including on the rights of EU nationals and money in return for a transition deal.
But isn't the latter exactly what Theresa May has done?
No - she has started from EU membership and tried to subtract.
An alternative would be to start with WTO and offer additions in return for £.
That's what she did, but it doesn't work because the reality is that our economy is configured on the basis of being inside the single market and customs union. You can't expect the other side to suspend disbelief in order to make your fantasy negotiating strategy work.
No one ever believed it. It was merely a snake oil position pushed by hard leftists to convince moderate Labour MPs to collapse the economy so Corbyn can come to power.
I'm intrigued that so many people claim this deal will not pass Parliament.
This deal in its current form clearly won't pass at a first attempt, and it is clear that the PM thinks she had got as good as she could from the negotiations upto this point.
What we now have given the EU in the past 24 hours is a very clear picture that the deal as constructed is not enough. We've showcased this morning all of the bits that can not be accepted by one group or another. We've allowed the mediaevalists in the DUP to show they are dead set on going down in flames, and we've shown that this could easily cost the PM her job and the alternatives are (mostly) pretty disastrous (JC or an ERGer).
The routes to a GE are almost non-existent. The routes to another referendum are IMHO unlikely, divisive and probably not decisive. That is a bad route and we don't have the time to anyway.
So, as with all complex stalemates in the end-game of negotiations, we now need something to happen to create the required movement. The last 24 hours should be enough to convince the EU we are not bluffing, the deal won't pass and no deal (even if mitigated by mini-deals) really is the unwelcome alternative.
It may be enough to enable Mrs May to go back and screw more out of the EU now, or we may need it to fail at the first attempt.
Time-limiting the backstop with a unilateral exit mechanism and making both ends of the swimming pool more equal in depth, (coupled with more flesh on the future relationship outline) might be enough to turn this deal into something that can pass parliament at the second attempt.
But the past 24 hours may not be enough for Mrs May to get that final movement. It may need a quick change of PM to Mr Raab to go back with this draft and screw the necessary concessions out of the EU team and re-present it to parliament. He is probably the only one who could pick up the mantle quickly with reasonable confidence from both wings of the party, and not entail us going back to square one.
Hang on, I'm losing track: Has Penny Mordaunt resigned and been completely forgotten about in the general brouhaha, or is she still in Cabinet?
She's not made it onto the Guardian liveblog as resigned, and they have a list with all the PPS resignations.
Some of these PPS's have real jobs.
Yes, my point was that the Guardian's desire for completeness included them, indeed it includes a Downing Street official who has also resigned, even though politically there is a tendency to overlook them.
So I guess now the question is whether reasonable Labour MPs care about their country more than the ERG.
That's not a question. Labour policy is to try and get a Labour government, which by definition they regard as being what is best for the country. They are for the most part also clear they don't believe no deal is a real possibility, therefore they see no risk in voting it down, particularly when 40-80 Tories are already voting against.
There's just no incentive for them to vote in favour - even if some do believe no deal is real and a GE is not viable (and many of the potential ones have already said the deal is no good), not enough of them agree to get it through so why bother?
It's a shame, but there's no path to an approval here.
Blaming Labour for the current mess may make some Tories feel better about themselves but they would probably be better off confronting reality.
It's not Labour's fault that the deal is what it is, clearly. However, if Labour pursue a GE or alternative negotiation and we have no deal as a result, that would be, in part, a consequence of their action, even though the Tories would still be principally at fault. Labour have the votes to sink a deal. It may be the right choice, it may not, but it is within their power.
Everyone is of course responsible to some degree that is arguable but the current state of things is almost entirely in the hands of the Conservative party. What happens from here might have more input from Labour but the Conservatives have mostly arrived here themselves.
Corbyn didn't campaign bla bla (whilst delivering a similar remain percentage to the Lib Dems and SNP) might be a nice bedtime story for Tory remainers who can't accept their parties part in things but arguing the current situation is anything but almost entirely the Tories fault is just completely detached from reality.
So I guess now the question is whether reasonable Labour MPs care about their country more than the ERG.
That's not a question. Labour policy is to try and get a Labour government, which by definition they regard as being what is best for the country. They are for the most part also clear they don't believe no deal is a real possibility, therefore they see no risk in voting it down, particularly when 40-80 Tories are already voting against.
There's just no incentive for them to vote in favour - even if some do believe no deal is real and a GE is not viable (and many of the potential ones have already said the deal is no good), not enough of them agree to get it through so why bother?
It's a shame, but there's no path to an approval here.
Sadly agree with that. Irony is that we will end up sleepwalking into No Deal because of that line of thinking.
Betfair 2018 GE now 23 on Betfair - not sure why as now legally impossible to have GE before Christmas - as minimum 5 weeks between dissolution and GE - Thur 20 Dec is 5 weeks from today.
Thur 27 Dec still legally possible but surely completely inconceivable.
Blaming Labour for the current mess may make some Tories feel better about themselves but they would probably be better off confronting reality.
It's not Labour's fault that the deal is what it is, clearly. However, if Labour pursue a GE or alternative negotiation and we have no deal as a result, that would be, in part, a consequence of their action, even though the Tories would still be principally at fault. Labour have the votes to sink a deal. It may be the right choice, it may not, but it is within their power.
Everyone is of course responsible to some degree that is arguable but the current state of things is almost entirely in the hands of the Conservative party. What happens from here might have more input from Labour but the Conservatives have mostly arrived here themselves.
Corbyn didn't campaign bla bla (whilst delivering a similar remain percentage to the Lib Dems and SNP) might be a nice bedtime story for Tory remainers who can't accept their parties part in things but arguing the current situation is anything but almost entirely the Tories fault is just completely detached from reality.
It would clearly be wrong to say Labour are more at fault. The government of the day must bear most responsibility.
But if no deal occurs and is as bad as people say the people who decided that do bear some responsibility, and it is parliament's decision and therefore its collective responsibility if it fails to get through. The crapness of a deal would be some level of excuse, but if people would rather no deal than crap deal then they are lying about thinking no deal is so bad.
The thing is, JRM doesn't seem to want No Deal either:
13:47 Rees-Mogg says the government should go back to Brussels and tell them that the UK will leave without a deal, and trade on WTO terms.
It would be sensible to make “a generous offer” to the EU, including on the rights of EU nationals and money in return for a transition deal.
But isn't the latter exactly what Theresa May has done?
No - she has started from EU membership and tried to subtract.
An alternative would be to start with WTO and offer additions in return for £.
That's what she did, but it doesn't work because the reality is that our economy is configured on the basis of being inside the single market and customs union. You can't expect the other side to suspend disbelief in order to make your fantasy negotiating strategy work.
That's because they didn't see us assuming no deal in execution.
A bold and radical prospectus for a new modern economy presented 18 months ago could have got us in decent nick for no deal.
Assume the worst and any deal with the EU is a bonus should have been the approach.
The thing is, JRM doesn't seem to want No Deal either:
13:47 Rees-Mogg says the government should go back to Brussels and tell them that the UK will leave without a deal, and trade on WTO terms.
It would be sensible to make “a generous offer” to the EU, including on the rights of EU nationals and money in return for a transition deal.
But isn't the latter exactly what Theresa May has done?
No - she has started from EU membership and tried to subtract.
An alternative would be to start with WTO and offer additions in return for £.
That's what she did, but it doesn't work because the reality is that our economy is configured on the basis of being inside the single market and customs union. You can't expect the other side to suspend disbelief in order to make your fantasy negotiating strategy work.
That's because they didn't see us assuming no deal in execution.
A bold and radical prospectus for a new modern economy presented 18 months ago could have got us in decent nick for no deal.
Assume the worst and any deal with the EU is a bonus should have been the approach.
Betfair 2018 GE now 23 on Betfair - not sure why as now legally impossible to have GE before Christmas - as minimum 5 weeks between dissolution and GE - Thur 20 Dec is 5 weeks from today.
Thur 27 Dec still legally possible but surely completely inconceivable.
Couldn’t Parliament legislate to reduce the 5 weeks if a crisis demands it?
Why are so many people still considering their position? This is not rocket science - either you support the deal, whether or not it would pass the Commons, or you don't. If you don;t you quit if you do you stay and take the consequences when it is voted down.
There's not much to think about here when weighing options.
Blaming Labour for the current mess may make some Tories feel better about themselves but they would probably be better off confronting reality.
Glen is a Labour supporter.
I have been reading his twitter account for months now...
If he is a Labour supporter I am a Thatcherite, the thing he most insults is Labour.
He may be a Blairite I guess which is mostly covered by the label Tory. He would rather blame the left for what is happening than the right because that is where his natural loyalty lies. Like yourself, except your not Blairite.
Edit: and you don't insult Labour as much as him.
Come to think of it if he really is in some way actually Labour can we swap him for you, you are far more complimentary and less insulting about Labour than him. No need to even change your opinions.
Why are so many people still considering their position? This is not rocket science - either you support the deal, whether or not it would pass the Commons, or you don't. If you don;t you quit if you do you stay and take the consequences when it is voted down.
There's not much to think about here when weighing options.
Because they're all a bunch of egoists and grandstanders.
Blaming Labour for the current mess may make some Tories feel better about themselves but they would probably be better off confronting reality.
Glen is a Labour supporter.
I have been reading his twitter account for months now...
If he is a Labour supporter I am a Thatcherite, the thing he most insults is Labour.
He may be a Blairite I guess which is mostly covered by the label Tory. He would rather blame the left for what is happening than the right because that is where his natural loyalty lies. Like yourself, except your not Blairite.
I'm intrigued that so many people claim this deal will not pass Parliament.
This deal in its current form clearly won't pass at a first attempt, and it is clear that the PM thinks she had got as good as she could from the negotiations upto this point.
What we now have given the EU in the past 24 hours is a very clear picture that the deal as constructed is not enough. We've showcased this morning all of the bits that can not be accepted by one group or another. We've allowed the mediaevalists in the DUP to show they are dead set on going down in flames, and we've shown that this could easily cost the PM her job and the alternatives are (mostly) pretty disastrous (JC or an ERGer).
The routes to a GE are almost non-existent. The routes to another referendum are IMHO unlikely, divisive and probably not decisive. That is a bad route and we don't have the time to anyway.
So, as with all complex stalemates in the end-game of negotiations, we now need something to happen to create the required movement. The last 24 hours should be enough to convince the EU we are not bluffing, the deal won't pass and no deal (even if mitigated by mini-deals) really is the unwelcome alternative.
It may be enough to enable Mrs May to go back and screw more out of the EU now, or we may need it to fail at the first attempt.
Time-limiting the backstop with a unilateral exit mechanism and making both ends of the swimming pool more equal in depth, (coupled with more flesh on the future relationship outline) might be enough to turn this deal into something that can pass parliament at the second attempt.
But the past 24 hours may not be enough for Mrs May to get that final movement. It may need a quick change of PM to Mr Raab to go back with this draft and screw the necessary concessions out of the EU team and re-present it to parliament. He is probably the only one who could pick up the mantle quickly with reasonable confidence from both wings of the party, and not entail us going back to square one.
The EU have made it clear. This is the deal. It's this, crash and burn or (maybe) remain.
Crash and burn will hurt them too, yes, but clearly either they don't think it'll hurt enough to make them interested in budging or they think that to avoid crash and burn we'll plead to remain.
Betfair 2018 GE now 23 on Betfair - not sure why as now legally impossible to have GE before Christmas - as minimum 5 weeks between dissolution and GE - Thur 20 Dec is 5 weeks from today.
Thur 27 Dec still legally possible but surely completely inconceivable.
Couldn’t Parliament legislate to reduce the 5 weeks if a crisis demands it?
And how would a Commons and Lords this divided manage to do that?
Why are so many people still considering their position? This is not rocket science - either you support the deal, whether or not it would pass the Commons, or you don't. If you don;t you quit if you do you stay and take the consequences when it is voted down.
There's not much to think about here when weighing options.
Because they're all a bunch of egoists and grandstanders.
Because if you choose wrong, your political career (or at least your leadership ambition) is over.
And nobody really has any clue what the fuck is going on, so you're gonna wargame the possibilities carefully.
Comments
https://twitter.com/tristanpw1/status/1063023355903787008?s=21
You can see why some Brexiteers think it best to keep her in place.
http://articles.latimes.com/2007/jan/14/local/me-water14
((I like pineapple on pizza by the way))
""You have got Boris Johnson and David Davis. You have got Dominic Raab and Esther McVey. You have got Penny Mordaunt."
I find single breasted ones a bit plebian.
13:47 Rees-Mogg says the government should go back to Brussels and tell them that the UK will leave without a deal, and trade on WTO terms.
It would be sensible to make “a generous offer” to the EU, including on the rights of EU nationals and money in return for a transition deal.
But isn't the latter exactly what Theresa May has done?
Someone who actually believes in Brexit and tries to make it work.
Mr. Urquhart, that sounds quite mad.
Gina. Hur hur hur......
Creating cyanide is trickier, though not that tricky (it can be done by flowing ammonia over a hot charcoal barbecue).
The EU is a pretty corrupt, often unaccountable and disunited group. A brilliant politician, properly advised by people who believe in Brexit (i.e. not Ollie Robbins) and with guts will get a MUCH better deal for Britain.
We should enact a 12 month extension on Article 50. A new Tory leader will throw a bone to Remainers by offering that ALL options will be on the table in Parliament i.e. a second vote. That will bring down May and we can sort out this mess once and for all.
In terms of the EU, it's actually not that hard. You just have to stand up to bullies.
We have two real choices aside from the No Deal.
1. Stay in the EU and reform it by the scruff of its neck Trump-style. Why? Because it's in a shambolic state.
or
2. Negotiate a much better deal for Britain and then leave.
https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1063054601228898310
Mogg didn't even read the deal before going off the deep end. He probably still hasn't.
Waistcoats (of any type) haven't been plebian since before the war. Keep up!
I managed to catch a little of May in the Commons - she reminded me of one of those boxers up against the ropes gloves protecting the head absorbing the blows and hoping to land an occasional counter punch.
For all the accolades from her apologists (many of whom are more terrified of the alternatives), it didn't make for easy viewing.
How will this play out? Naturally, May will have plenty of supporters and plenty will want to blame the EU who seem to have negotiated this well from their side. We aren't used to and we don't like the notion of being humiliated - remember the outrage when we lost to Iceland in the football?
How will the sense of humiliation play out? It could be focussed on the EU and I suspect anti-EU sentiments will be further entrenched - it could be focussed on May who will have to carry the can for what seems in the latter stage to have been a process she very largely owned.
Yet her trump card (poor choice of words I admit) isn't Corbyn but Mark Carney. His apocalyptic briefing on the possible consequences of "No Deal" has shored up her support and has left others questioning whether the consequences of voting down the Deal are so horrendous as to make voting for a bad, unsatisfactory Deal the only option.
The problem is we have left it appallingly late to make proper preparation for No Deal and that is as much a fault of political leadership as not making provision for a LEAVE victory in 2016.
An alternative would be to start with WTO and offer additions in return for £.
The only thing which helps May today is it seriosuly reduces the chances of an EU27 member blocking the deal with extra demands of their own. Theyll get leant on.
This deal in its current form clearly won't pass at a first attempt, and it is clear that the PM thinks she had got as good as she could from the negotiations upto this point.
What we now have given the EU in the past 24 hours is a very clear picture that the deal as constructed is not enough. We've showcased this morning all of the bits that can not be accepted by one group or another. We've allowed the mediaevalists in the DUP to show they are dead set on going down in flames, and we've shown that this could easily cost the PM her job and the alternatives are (mostly) pretty disastrous (JC or an ERGer).
The routes to a GE are almost non-existent. The routes to another referendum are IMHO unlikely, divisive and probably not decisive. That is a bad route and we don't have the time to anyway.
So, as with all complex stalemates in the end-game of negotiations, we now need something to happen to create the required movement. The last 24 hours should be enough to convince the EU we are not bluffing, the deal won't pass and no deal (even if mitigated by mini-deals) really is the unwelcome alternative.
It may be enough to enable Mrs May to go back and screw more out of the EU now, or we may need it to fail at the first attempt.
Time-limiting the backstop with a unilateral exit mechanism and making both ends of the swimming pool more equal in depth, (coupled with more flesh on the future relationship outline) might be enough to turn this deal into something that can pass parliament at the second attempt.
But the past 24 hours may not be enough for Mrs May to get that final movement. It may need a quick change of PM to Mr Raab to go back with this draft and screw the necessary concessions out of the EU team and re-present it to parliament. He is probably the only one who could pick up the mantle quickly with reasonable confidence from both wings of the party, and not entail us going back to square one.
There's just no incentive for them to vote in favour - even if some do believe no deal is real and a GE is not viable (and many of the potential ones have already said the deal is no good), not enough of them agree to get it through so why bother?
It's a shame, but there's no path to an approval here.
Corbyn didn't campaign bla bla (whilst delivering a similar remain percentage to the Lib Dems and SNP) might be a nice bedtime story for Tory remainers who can't accept their parties part in things but arguing the current situation is anything but almost entirely the Tories fault is just completely detached from reality.
I've stockpiled beans and bottled water.
Thur 27 Dec still legally possible but surely completely inconceivable.
But if no deal occurs and is as bad as people say the people who decided that do bear some responsibility, and it is parliament's decision and therefore its collective responsibility if it fails to get through. The crapness of a deal would be some level of excuse, but if people would rather no deal than crap deal then they are lying about thinking no deal is so bad.
I do not think those words mean what he thinks they mean.
A bold and radical prospectus for a new modern economy presented 18 months ago could have got us in decent nick for no deal.
Assume the worst and any deal with the EU is a bonus should have been the approach.
There's not much to think about here when weighing options.
If he is a Labour supporter I am a Thatcherite, the thing he most insults is Labour.
He may be a Blairite I guess which is mostly covered by the label Tory. He would rather blame the left for what is happening than the right because that is where his natural loyalty lies. Like yourself, except your not Blairite.
Edit: and you don't insult Labour as much as him.
Come to think of it if he really is in some way actually Labour can we swap him for you, you are far more complimentary and less insulting about Labour than him. No need to even change your opinions.
Crash and burn will hurt them too, yes, but clearly either they don't think it'll hurt enough to make them interested in budging or they think that to avoid crash and burn we'll plead to remain.
And nobody really has any clue what the fuck is going on, so you're gonna wargame the possibilities carefully.