I'm intrigued that so many people claim this deal will not pass Parliament.
This deal in its current form clearly won't pass at a first attempt, and it is clear that the PM thinks she had got as good as she could from the negotiations upto this point.
What we now have given the EU in the past 24 hours is a very clear picture that the deal as constructed is not enough. We've showcased this morning all of the bits that can not be accepted by one group or another. We've allowed the mediaevalists in the DUP to show they are dead set on going down in flames, and we've shown that this could easily cost the PM her job and the alternatives are (mostly) pretty disastrous (JC or an ERGer).
The routes to a GE are almost non-existent. The routes to another referendum are IMHO unlikely, divisive and probably not decisive. That is a bad route and we don't have the time to anyway.
So, as with all complex stalemates in the end-game of negotiations, we now need something to happen to create the required movement. The last 24 hours should be enough to convince the EU we are not bluffing, the deal won't pass and no deal (even if mitigated by mini-deals) really is the unwelcome alternative.
It may be enough to enable Mrs May to go back and screw more out of the EU now, or we may need it to fail at the first attempt.
Time-limiting the backstop with a unilateral exit mechanism and making both ends of the swimming pool more equal in depth, (coupled with more flesh on the future relationship outline) might be enough to turn this deal into something that can pass parliament at the second attempt.
But the past 24 hours may not be enough for Mrs May to get that final movement. It may need a quick change of PM to Mr Raab to go back with this draft and screw the necessary concessions out of the EU team and re-present it to parliament. He is probably the only one who could pick up the mantle quickly with reasonable confidence from both wings of the party, and not entail us going back to square one.
The EU have made it clear. This is the deal. It's this, crash and burn or (maybe) remain.
Crash and burn will hurt them too, yes, but clearly either they don't think it'll hurt enough to make them interested in budging or they think that to avoid crash and burn we'll plead to remain.
The germans will take the approach that if the brits cant sign, then assume its no deal and all the time you have left is spent preparing for what that means.
I'm intrigued that so many people claim this deal will not pass Parliament.
This deal in its current form clearly won't pass at a first attempt, and it is clear that the PM thinks she had got as good as she could from the negotiations upto this point.
What we now have given the EU in the past 24 hours is a very clear picture that the deal as constructed is not enough. We've showcased this morning all of the bits that can not be accepted by one group or another. We've allowed the mediaevalists in the DUP to show they are dead set on going down in flames, and we've shown that this could easily cost the PM her job and the alternatives are (mostly) pretty disastrous (JC or an ERGer).
The routes to a GE are almost non-existent. The routes to another referendum are IMHO unlikely, divisive and probably not decisive. That is a bad route and we don't have the time to anyway.
So, as with all complex stalemates in the end-game of negotiations, we now need something to happen to create the required movement. The last 24 hours should be enough to convince the EU we are not bluffing, the deal won't pass and no deal (even if mitigated by mini-deals) really is the unwelcome alternative.
It may be enough to enable Mrs May to go back and screw more out of the EU now, or we may need it to fail at the first attempt.
Time-limiting the backstop with a unilateral exit mechanism and making both ends of the swimming pool more equal in depth, (coupled with more flesh on the future relationship outline) might be enough to turn this deal into something that can pass parliament at the second attempt.
But the past 24 hours may not be enough for Mrs May to get that final movement. It may need a quick change of PM to Mr Raab to go back with this draft and screw the necessary concessions out of the EU team and re-present it to parliament. He is probably the only one who could pick up the mantle quickly with reasonable confidence from both wings of the party, and not entail us going back to square one.
The EU have made it clear. This is the deal. It's this, crash and burn or (maybe) remain.
Crash and burn will hurt them too, yes, but clearly either they don't think it'll hurt enough to make them interested in budging or they think that to avoid crash and burn we'll plead to remain.
Labour, the ERG and Tory remainers: The EU are a bunch of liars, who would therefore very easily do a deal with us, which would be completely better in contradictory ways.
Blaming Labour for the current mess may make some Tories feel better about themselves but they would probably be better off confronting reality.
Holding Labour, and Corbyn, responsible for their choices is entirely reasonable. How Tories feel about it is more or less irrelevant.
I believe Labour and Corbyn should be, which is why they can't be held responsible for the current Tory mess. It is not their doing.
They could have prevented it - or at least shown willing to try to do so. Instead they went along with the Tory shambles (now a disaster) every step of the way.
Why are so many people still considering their position? This is not rocket science - either you support the deal, whether or not it would pass the Commons, or you don't. If you don;t you quit if you do you stay and take the consequences when it is voted down.
There's not much to think about here when weighing options.
The news cycle and the impact on a future leadership bid are important and complex matters to consider when the national interest (inseparable from their becoming leader in some MPs’ minds) is at stake.
Betfair 2018 GE now 23 on Betfair - not sure why as now legally impossible to have GE before Christmas - as minimum 5 weeks between dissolution and GE - Thur 20 Dec is 5 weeks from today.
Thur 27 Dec still legally possible but surely completely inconceivable.
Couldn’t Parliament legislate to reduce the 5 weeks if a crisis demands it?
In theory, yes. In practice, shoving through legislation of that order within the space of a week by a divided government that doesn't want a snap election should be thousands to one.
That said, I don't think that general elections have to be on a Thursday.
Blaming Labour for the current mess may make some Tories feel better about themselves but they would probably be better off confronting reality.
Holding Labour, and Corbyn, responsible for their choices is entirely reasonable. How Tories feel about it is more or less irrelevant.
I believe Labour and Corbyn should be, which is why they can't be held responsible for the current Tory mess. It is not their doing.
You are evading the point - the deal being a mess is not Labour's doing. Voting down that mess is still Labour's own choice however. Maybe it is the right choice, we shall see. The fact of it being a mess may or may not justify that choice. But it will still be their choice and if that choice leads to a terrible no deal outcome that the Tories did a bad job doesn't take away Labour's choice.
Blaming Labour for the current mess may make some Tories feel better about themselves but they would probably be better off confronting reality.
Same can be said for you and Corbyn's anti-Semitism. Embrace the reality.
I know it can be confusing for Islamophobes such as yourself but Corbyn continuing Ed's policies opposing the occupation of Palestine isn't anti semitism. Embrace the reality
LOL. I am not an Islamaphobe. Far from. I stand by my record on here of calling out Islamaphobia and anti-Semitism, and it says nothing positive about you that you descend to that level.
But for the record, Corbyn's doing much more than than you say. And people should stop hiding their anti-Semitism behind anti-Zionism.
I should ask how bonfire night went for you. Did you mix up your Katyusha and sparklers?
Labour's problem is that the voting blend that got behind Corbyn includes a lot of very pro-EU people (mainly young). May has delivered (more or less) the only "soft exit" deal that can exist. The only coherent alternatives are WTO (with possibly a cobbled together set of temporary arrangements) or remain. McDonnell stating that he could get a better deal is ludicrous becuase he also stated that permanent CU and SM membership was his aim which is literally not leaving apart from giving up voting rights.
May is moving towards calling a referendum if she cannot get her Deal through, note she included No Brexit at all in future options last night as Remain almost certainly beats No Deal in EUref2 based on polling
Were you listening to her answers this morning?
She said perhaps some 10 times that she would not be calling a referendum.
Which, following the example of GE2017, means it's nailed on. I salute your perspicacity.
If Parliament blocks a soft brexit (which TM's deal is) then I can't see where we go. A hard brexit has very little MP support and a 2nd ref would be a crazy course of action. Golly.
Betfair 2018 GE now 23 on Betfair - not sure why as now legally impossible to have GE before Christmas - as minimum 5 weeks between dissolution and GE - Thur 20 Dec is 5 weeks from today.
Thur 27 Dec still legally possible but surely completely inconceivable.
Couldn’t Parliament legislate to reduce the 5 weeks if a crisis demands it?
In theory, yes. In practice, shoving through legislation of that order within the space of a week by a divided government that doesn't want a snap election should be thousands to one.
That said, I don't think that general elections have to be on a Thursday.
Yes, I wasn’t suggesting that 23 was a good price, but if you get to a general election it’s probably because the government have conceded one (as the only way out of the crisis other than a Referendum) rather than been NCed into it, and then all parties would cooperate to get it done quickly.
It is true, but it is totally irrelevant. We are where we are today because David Cameron was worried about UKIP, because a lot of right wing Tories sold an entirely unachievable prospectus to the electorate and because those same right wing Tories will not accept that. This Brexit was made in the Conservative party and is owned entirely by the Conservative party - which once could claim to be the patriotic, pro-business party without being laughed out of court.
If Parliament blocks a soft brexit (which TM's deal is) then I can't see where we go. A hard brexit has very little MP support and a 2nd ref would be a crazy course of action. Golly.
The only actions left are crazy. Hard Brexit has a lot more support than you might think, because so many MPs are willing to risk it - their actions therefore back it as a possibility no matter how much they cry crocodile tears about it with their words.
I think that must be the right thing to do. It's high-risk, for all the reasons we've explored, and highly unsatisfactory on a number of counts, but since there is no chance at all of the EU agreeing a better deal than the PM has managed to achieve, and since leaving without a deal would be absolutely catastrophic, the only possible way out if parliament won't accept the deal is to reverse the People's Vote, and the only possible way of doing that with sufficient democratic cover would be to re-run it. Of course, it would be a 50-50 shot at best, but that's better than a 100% chance of disaster. (And both are worse than a near-100% chance of a decent result, which parliament seem set to reject. Hey-ho)
It is true, but it is totally irrelevant. We are where we are today because David Cameron was worried about UKIP, because a lot of right wing Tories sold an entirely unachievable prospectus to the electorate and because those same right wing Tories will not accept that. This Brexit was made in the Conservative party and is owned entirely by the Conservative party - which once could claim to be the patriotic, pro-business party without being laughed out of court.
The grave of the Tory Party reads "Fuck Business"- Conservative Foreign Secretary* 2018.
Labour's problem is that the voting blend that got behind Corbyn includes a lot of very pro-EU people (mainly young). May has delivered (more or less) the only "soft exit" deal that can exist. The only coherent alternatives are WTO (with possibly a cobbled together set of temporary arrangements) or remain. McDonnell stating that he could get a better deal is ludicrous becuase he also stated that permanent CU and SM membership was his aim which is literally not leaving apart from giving up voting rights.
Blaming Labour for the current mess may make some Tories feel better about themselves but they would probably be better off confronting reality.
Holding Labour, and Corbyn, responsible for their choices is entirely reasonable. How Tories feel about it is more or less irrelevant.
I believe Labour and Corbyn should be, which is why they can't be held responsible for the current Tory mess. It is not their doing.
They could have prevented it - or at least shown willing to try to do so. Instead they went along with the Tory shambles (now a disaster) every step of the way.
That is exactly what May wanted, she was goading it, she ended up having to use Sadiq Khan as the bogeyman who was trying to stop Brexit.
Whether Labour actually wanted Brexit or wanted to stop it the only way to let this play out and stop Brexit would be the current strategy where it has blown up in the Conservatives faces.
If we are talking votes in the house of commons I don't think there are any that could have been won that Labour didn't try to win.
If Brexit was ever to be stopped I believe it had to get to this situation first and Labour opposing Brexit would have been the perfect bogeyman to keep it going longer.
I think that must be the right thing to do. It's high-risk, for all the reasons we've explored, and highly unsatisfactory on a number of counts, but since there is no chance at all of the EU agreeing a better deal than the PM has managed to achieve, and since leaving without a deal would be absolutely catastrophic, the only possible way out is to reverse the People's Vote, and the only possible way of doing that with sufficient democratic cover would be to re-run it. Of course, it would be a 50-50 shot at best, but that's better than a 100% chance of disaster.
has anyone calling for a second referendum any idea what the question might be ?
Any new leader will presumably rip up the deal and hence they instantly relieve the Labour Party of any dilemma.
The current Lab dilemma is support the deal or not. If they don't they could be accused of acting against the National interest; if they do, well they support the government and that isn't what an Opposition is supposed to do.
The ERG looks like it is about to relieve them of that problem. No Labour MP with a pulse would ever vote for a Party with one of the Brex-o-loons in charge and hence Lab can sit back and blame the extreme wing of the party whereas they will hint, they would reluctantly but dutifully have backed May's deal.
Yes, exactly right.
Plus of course any new leader is going to come back with the same deal, and will face the same parliamentary arithmetic.
Personally if I was the EU Id offer less than before to the UK to stop them messing about.
I think Rees-Mogg would be happy with the EU offering less. He doesn't want more from the EU he wants less and seems perfectly content to get nothing at all from them and leave on a clean Brexit.
Brits have spent too much time thinking they are going back in to the Europe of 2016, Merkel ey al have too many other problems without extending Brexit. They want it over.
If that was the case the way to get it over with would be to make concessions that would be acceptable to Parliament. They've not done that.
If they make concessions theyll get asked for more. Why would you ?
The only thing which helps May today is it seriosuly reduces the chances of an EU27 member blocking the deal with extra demands of their own. Theyll get leant on.
Indeed just as the UK has been made to make more concessions every time we've made any.
So what you're suggesting now is they don't simply want it over with. It's May's desire to get something to make this over which has led to us making concessions.
May decided she wanted to be Prime Minister when Cameron resigned. It might have been an over-inflated "sense of duty" but she took the chance when it was offered without any hesitation. Her conduct during the EU Referendum when she was almost as invisible as Jeremy Corbyn is all the evidence you need she is an opportunist who would have happily remained (as it were) as HS had Cameron stayed on and awaited his retirement before putting herself forward.
My guess is she will have to be dragged away from No.10 by her fingernails and its' interesting she is relying more on the Cabinet Secretary and other senior civil servants to support her and hold the line. She is treating the office of PM just as she did the office of Home Secretary surrounding herself with sycophantically loyal officials and advisers.
It is true, but it is totally irrelevant. We are where we are today because David Cameron was worried about UKIP, because a lot of right wing Tories sold an entirely unachievable prospectus to the electorate and because those same right wing Tories will not accept that. This Brexit was made in the Conservative party and is owned entirely by the Conservative party - which once could claim to be the patriotic, pro-business party without being laughed out of court.
The grave of the Tory Party reads "Fuck Business"- Conservative Foreign Secretary* 2018.
* Not a sackable offence.
The Tory Party is putting forward and majority voting for a very workable Brexit Plan. It looks like the Labour Party is voting for the cliff edge crash.
Why are so many people still considering their position? This is not rocket science - either you support the deal, whether or not it would pass the Commons, or you don't. If you don;t you quit if you do you stay and take the consequences when it is voted down.
There's not much to think about here when weighing options.
I have no sympathy for Grayling in the slightest as he's the Transport Secretary who doored a cyclist and then fled the scene.
However, I do think it could take some time to decide between your personal loyalty to an individual you have supported closely for a long time and your personal judgement on a matter of policy. He must trust May's judgement to a considerable degree, so to find his own judgement in conflict with it must be a wrench.
Hang on, I'm losing track: Has Penny Mordaunt resigned and been completely forgotten about in the general brouhaha, or is she still in Cabinet?
She's not made it onto the Guardian liveblog as resigned, and they have a list with all the PPS resignations.
Some of these PPS's have real jobs.
Yes, my point was that the Guardian's desire for completeness included them, indeed it includes a Downing Street official who has also resigned, even though politically there is a tendency to overlook them.
My point was I wasn't quite so sure about Penny Mordaunt who always sounds like a character out of Harry Potter to me, probably Slytherin.
Blaming Labour for the current mess may make some Tories feel better about themselves but they would probably be better off confronting reality.
Holding Labour, and Corbyn, responsible for their choices is entirely reasonable. How Tories feel about it is more or less irrelevant.
I believe Labour and Corbyn should be, which is why they can't be held responsible for the current Tory mess. It is not their doing.
You are evading the point - the deal being a mess is not Labour's doing. Voting down that mess is still Labour's own choice however. Maybe it is the right choice, we shall see. The fact of it being a mess may or may not justify that choice. But it will still be their choice and if that choice leads to a terrible no deal outcome that the Tories did a bad job doesn't take away Labour's choice.
I did say (admittedly to someone else) that Labour are responsible for their actions from here. Which they are.
What I said was the Tories were responsible for the current mess which exists regardless of Labours future voting intentions on the deal. Which they are. So I do agree with you but my specific point was about the current situation.
Labour's problem is that the voting blend that got behind Corbyn includes a lot of very pro-EU people (mainly young). May has delivered (more or less) the only "soft exit" deal that can exist. The only coherent alternatives are WTO (with possibly a cobbled together set of temporary arrangements) or remain. McDonnell stating that he could get a better deal is ludicrous becuase he also stated that permanent CU and SM membership was his aim which is literally not leaving apart from giving up voting rights.
Labour MPs need to know they are voting between a soft exit and a cliff edge crash. If the majority of Tory MPs vote for the former and they vote for the latter it is clear who will be responsible.
It is true, but it is totally irrelevant. We are where we are today because David Cameron was worried about UKIP, because a lot of right wing Tories sold an entirely unachievable prospectus to the electorate and because those same right wing Tories will not accept that. This Brexit was made in the Conservative party and is owned entirely by the Conservative party - which once could claim to be the patriotic, pro-business party without being laughed out of court.
The grave of the Tory Party reads "Fuck Business"- Conservative Foreign Secretary* 2018.
* Not a sackable offence.
The Tory Party is putting forward and majority voting for a very workable Brexit Plan. It looks like the Labour Party is voting for the cliff edge crash.
Hmmm. Keep on saying it if it makes you feel better, but when Tory MPs are openly slagging off each other and sending open letters of no confidence in the PM to Brady, I think it's fair to say that this is not a Labour thing.
It is true, but it is totally irrelevant. We are where we are today because David Cameron was worried about UKIP, because a lot of right wing Tories sold an entirely unachievable prospectus to the electorate and because those same right wing Tories will not accept that. This Brexit was made in the Conservative party and is owned entirely by the Conservative party - which once could claim to be the patriotic, pro-business party without being laughed out of court.
The grave of the Tory Party reads "Fuck Business"- Conservative Foreign Secretary* 2018.
* Not a sackable offence.
The Tory Party is putting forward and majority voting for a very workable Brexit Plan. It looks like the Labour Party is voting for the cliff edge crash.
You think the Tories will hold together long enough to actually put the deal to a vote?
It is true, but it is totally irrelevant. We are where we are today because David Cameron was worried about UKIP, because a lot of right wing Tories sold an entirely unachievable prospectus to the electorate and because those same right wing Tories will not accept that. This Brexit was made in the Conservative party and is owned entirely by the Conservative party - which once could claim to be the patriotic, pro-business party without being laughed out of court.
The grave of the Tory Party reads "Fuck Business"- Conservative Foreign Secretary* 2018.
* Not a sackable offence.
The Tory Party is putting forward and majority voting for a very workable Brexit Plan. It looks like the Labour Party is voting for the cliff edge crash.
I’m not sure there are many prizes for being able to deliver a bare majority of your party unless you hold 100% of the seats in Parliament. Otherwise it’s just another way of saying the government can’t command the confidence of the house.
May decided she wanted to be Prime Minister when Cameron resigned. It might have been an over-inflated "sense of duty" but she took the chance when it was offered without any hesitation. Her conduct during the EU Referendum when she was almost as invisible as Jeremy Corbyn is all the evidence you need she is an opportunist who would have happily remained (as it were) as HS had Cameron stayed on and awaited his retirement before putting herself forward.
My guess is she will have to be dragged away from No.10 by her fingernails and its' interesting she is relying more on the Cabinet Secretary and other senior civil servants to support her and hold the line. She is treating the office of PM just as she did the office of Home Secretary surrounding herself with sycophantically loyal officials and advisers.
Absolutely! The implicit idea that this situation was somehow forced on May is bizarre.
Blaming Labour for the current mess may make some Tories feel better about themselves but they would probably be better off confronting reality.
Same can be said for you and Corbyn's anti-Semitism. Embrace the reality.
I know it can be confusing for Islamophobes such as yourself but Corbyn continuing Ed's policies opposing the occupation of Palestine isn't anti semitism. Embrace the reality
LOL. I am not an Islamaphobe. Far from. I stand by my record on here of calling out Islamaphobia and anti-Semitism, and it says nothing positive about you that you descend to that level.
But for the record, Corbyn's doing much more than than you say. And people should stop hiding their anti-Semitism behind anti-Zionism.
I should ask how bonfire night went for you. Did you mix up your Katyusha and sparklers?
I think your just consistent in being an angry man, Islamophobes are often angry people.
I think that must be the right thing to do. It's high-risk, for all the reasons we've explored, and highly unsatisfactory on a number of counts, but since there is no chance at all of the EU agreeing a better deal than the PM has managed to achieve, and since leaving without a deal would be absolutely catastrophic, the only possible way out is to reverse the People's Vote, and the only possible way of doing that with sufficient democratic cover would be to re-run it. Of course, it would be a 50-50 shot at best, but that's better than a 100% chance of disaster.
has anyone calling for a second referendum any idea what the question might be ?
Yes, absolutely, many options have been presented. No one has yet agreed a question though because, officially, neither party backs it.
I do think that will change. Even as (in fact because of how) pathetically riven as they are the Tories will not want to concede a GE as the price (I don't see how they avoid one in 2019 at some point though) for a referendum, and a referendum is Labour's backup option if there is no GE, so I would think there is a chance they will agree for a no deal, deal, remain referendum, with Labour backing remain and Tories arguing every which way. I know Labour have leave votes, but their membership and MPs know what they want to do here. Maybe it would be on a free campaign and vote, in which case most Labour people will campaign for remain.
It is true, but it is totally irrelevant. We are where we are today because David Cameron was worried about UKIP, because a lot of right wing Tories sold an entirely unachievable prospectus to the electorate and because those same right wing Tories will not accept that. This Brexit was made in the Conservative party and is owned entirely by the Conservative party - which once could claim to be the patriotic, pro-business party without being laughed out of court.
The grave of the Tory Party reads "Fuck Business"- Conservative Foreign Secretary* 2018.
* Not a sackable offence.
The Tory Party is putting forward and majority voting for a very workable Brexit Plan. It looks like the Labour Party is voting for the cliff edge crash.
Hmmm. Keep on saying it if it makes you feel better, but when Tory MPs are openly slagging off each other and sending open letters of no confidence in the PM to Brady, I think it's fair to say that this is not a Labour thing.
A minority of the Conservative parliamentary party is being irresponsible. The entirety of the Labour parliamentary party is.
Blaming Labour for the current mess may make some Tories feel better about themselves but they would probably be better off confronting reality.
Holding Labour, and Corbyn, responsible for their choices is entirely reasonable. How Tories feel about it is more or less irrelevant.
I believe Labour and Corbyn should be, which is why they can't be held responsible for the current Tory mess. It is not their doing.
You are evading the point - the deal being a mess is not Labour's doing. Voting down that mess is still Labour's own choice however. Maybe it is the right choice, we shall see. The fact of it being a mess may or may not justify that choice. But it will still be their choice and if that choice leads to a terrible no deal outcome that the Tories did a bad job doesn't take away Labour's choice.
Whatever, the Tories will carry the can for the outcome of this whole charade, which they own from start to finish.
It is true, but it is totally irrelevant. We are where we are today because David Cameron was worried about UKIP, because a lot of right wing Tories sold an entirely unachievable prospectus to the electorate and because those same right wing Tories will not accept that. This Brexit was made in the Conservative party and is owned entirely by the Conservative party - which once could claim to be the patriotic, pro-business party without being laughed out of court.
The grave of the Tory Party reads "Fuck Business"- Conservative Foreign Secretary* 2018.
* Not a sackable offence.
The Tory Party is putting forward and majority voting for a very workable Brexit Plan. It looks like the Labour Party is voting for the cliff edge crash.
Hmmm. Keep on saying it if it makes you feel better, but when Tory MPs are openly slagging off each other and sending open letters of no confidence in the PM to Brady, I think it's fair to say that this is not a Labour thing.
A minority of the Conservative parliamentary party is being irresponsible. The entirety of the Labour parliamentary party is.
If you want Labour to govern, it is very easy - resign.
It is true, but it is totally irrelevant. We are where we are today because David Cameron was worried about UKIP, because a lot of right wing Tories sold an entirely unachievable prospectus to the electorate and because those same right wing Tories will not accept that. This Brexit was made in the Conservative party and is owned entirely by the Conservative party - which once could claim to be the patriotic, pro-business party without being laughed out of court.
The grave of the Tory Party reads "Fuck Business"- Conservative Foreign Secretary* 2018.
* Not a sackable offence.
The Tory Party is putting forward and majority voting for a very workable Brexit Plan. It looks like the Labour Party is voting for the cliff edge crash.
Hmmm. Keep on saying it if it makes you feel better, but when Tory MPs are openly slagging off each other and sending open letters of no confidence in the PM to Brady, I think it's fair to say that this is not a Labour thing.
A minority of the Conservative parliamentary party is being irresponsible. The entirety of the Labour parliamentary party is.
I think that must be the right thing to do. It's high-risk, for all the reasons we've explored, and highly unsatisfactory on a number of counts, but since there is no chance at all of the EU agreeing a better deal than the PM has managed to achieve, and since leaving without a deal would be absolutely catastrophic, the only possible way out if parliament won't accept the deal is to reverse the People's Vote, and the only possible way of doing that with sufficient democratic cover would be to re-run it. Of course, it would be a 50-50 shot at best, but that's better than a 100% chance of disaster. (And both are worse than a near-100% chance of a decent result, which parliament seem set to reject. Hey-ho)
How to stop the vote from being a 50/50: a) enfranchise 16 year olds. Scotland is the precedent. b) allow UK citizens living overseas to vote postally. c) Have at least three options to be ranked in preference, without committing in advance to the methodology by which the findings will be presented.
I reckon that takes it up to an 80% probability [/rorystewart]
It is true, but it is totally irrelevant. We are where we are today because David Cameron was worried about UKIP, because a lot of right wing Tories sold an entirely unachievable prospectus to the electorate and because those same right wing Tories will not accept that. This Brexit was made in the Conservative party and is owned entirely by the Conservative party - which once could claim to be the patriotic, pro-business party without being laughed out of court.
The grave of the Tory Party reads "Fuck Business"- Conservative Foreign Secretary* 2018.
* Not a sackable offence.
The Tory Party is putting forward and majority voting for a very workable Brexit Plan. It looks like the Labour Party is voting for the cliff edge crash.
Hmmm. Keep on saying it if it makes you feel better, but when Tory MPs are openly slagging off each other and sending open letters of no confidence in the PM to Brady, I think it's fair to say that this is not a Labour thing.
A minority of the Conservative parliamentary party is being irresponsible. The entirety of the Labour parliamentary party is.
Good luck with that, Theo.
A content free response because you can't justify their behaviour.
It is true, but it is totally irrelevant. We are where we are today because David Cameron was worried about UKIP, because a lot of right wing Tories sold an entirely unachievable prospectus to the electorate and because those same right wing Tories will not accept that. This Brexit was made in the Conservative party and is owned entirely by the Conservative party - which once could claim to be the patriotic, pro-business party without being laughed out of court.
The grave of the Tory Party reads "Fuck Business"- Conservative Foreign Secretary* 2018.
* Not a sackable offence.
The Tory Party is putting forward and majority voting for a very workable Brexit Plan. It looks like the Labour Party is voting for the cliff edge crash.
You think the Tories will hold together long enough to actually put the deal to a vote?
I think it is 50/50 that the deal gets to a vote at some point, 99/1 that it fails. I think the responsible thing for the Commons to do is formally reject it. Even if it is obvious, as it is, that it won't get through, I think people should know how many would back it. The EU might be interested in the answer as well, since if we accept for the sake of argument they are up for some level of renegotiation, knowing how many would have accepted this offer might be a price for opening up renegotiation at all.
Mr Jessop is right, Leave argued for all sorts of things but very few argued for 'No Deal' (is that what you mean by 'proerly leave'?) Mrs May's deal would fulfil the referendum result even if it is Brexit In Name Only and worse than staying.
Cameron already went and got the best deal possible from the EU. The voters rejected this best deal and voted to leave.
The leave vote wasn't for yet another renegotiation with the EU. Unfortunately this seems to be what it has become since they've decided not to plan to leave on WTO terms at all.
If the leave plan was always to leave without a deal then they should have had the f*ing guts to say so during the referendum. Their lies and mendacity is beyond belief. Everything that has ever been said about the euro-loonies is being shown to be the case.
It is true, but it is totally irrelevant. We are where we are today because David Cameron was worried about UKIP, because a lot of right wing Tories sold an entirely unachievable prospectus to the electorate and because those same right wing Tories will not accept that. This Brexit was made in the Conservative party and is owned entirely by the Conservative party - which once could claim to be the patriotic, pro-business party without being laughed out of court.
The grave of the Tory Party reads "Fuck Business"- Conservative Foreign Secretary* 2018.
* Not a sackable offence.
The Tory Party is putting forward and majority voting for a very workable Brexit Plan. It looks like the Labour Party is voting for the cliff edge crash.
Hmmm. Keep on saying it if it makes you feel better, but when Tory MPs are openly slagging off each other and sending open letters of no confidence in the PM to Brady, I think it's fair to say that this is not a Labour thing.
A minority of the Conservative parliamentary party is being irresponsible. The entirety of the Labour parliamentary party is.
If you want Labour to govern, it is very easy - resign.
Which brings us to the core of the matter. You lot are willing to crash the economy, plunging millions of people into joblessness and poverty to get a shot at government. You people are selfish and disgusting.
Theresa May is in an impossible position. There's no way she can satisfy all shades of opinion at the same time. But kudos to her for trying.
Sometimes leadership isn't about trying to satisfy mutually incompatible shades of opinion, it is showing some grit and leadership and accepting you'll annoy some people.
Instead she's show no backbone and simply wound down the clock until signing the deal the EU wrote for her. She doesn't deserve kudos for that.
Blaming Labour for the current mess may make some Tories feel better about themselves but they would probably be better off confronting reality.
Holding Labour, and Corbyn, responsible for their choices is entirely reasonable. How Tories feel about it is more or less irrelevant.
I believe Labour and Corbyn should be, which is why they can't be held responsible for the current Tory mess. It is not their doing.
You are evading the point - the deal being a mess is not Labour's doing. Voting down that mess is still Labour's own choice however. Maybe it is the right choice, we shall see. The fact of it being a mess may or may not justify that choice. But it will still be their choice and if that choice leads to a terrible no deal outcome that the Tories did a bad job doesn't take away Labour's choice.
Whatever, the Tories will carry the can for the outcome of this whole charade, which they own from start to finish.
I didn't say otherwise(that the Tories will not take serious blame that is), what are you on about? Obviously the Tories take by far the largest hit because they are in power, but if parliament votes against everyone who did bears some responsibility for their actions if that then leads to a negative outcome. It is hardly controversial to suggest people are accountable for their actions, it is one of the principles of conduct in public life.
Moreover, while I am not voting Tory again for a very long time at the least, it is very disheartening that people are still choosing to focus, overwhelmingly, on which party to blame the most right now and how much, and their leadership ambitions, etc etc.
It is true, but it is totally irrelevant. We are where we are today because David Cameron was worried about UKIP, because a lot of right wing Tories sold an entirely unachievable prospectus to the electorate and because those same right wing Tories will not accept that. This Brexit was made in the Conservative party and is owned entirely by the Conservative party - which once could claim to be the patriotic, pro-business party without being laughed out of court.
The grave of the Tory Party reads "Fuck Business"- Conservative Foreign Secretary* 2018.
* Not a sackable offence.
The Tory Party is putting forward and majority voting for a very workable Brexit Plan. It looks like the Labour Party is voting for the cliff edge crash.
You think the Tories will hold together long enough to actually put the deal to a vote?
I think the Tories will hold together and I do not think Corbyn will be prime minister. Even if they cannot hold together on Europe. I cro not see a large amo7nt of personal support for Theresa May in the 40% support for Conservatives. A significant amount of this is against scared of a Corbyn style gov would do. Corbyn was 60 seats short last time and is now less popular, and if he looks like a contender he will then falter under the scrutiny.
It is true, but it is totally irrelevant. We are where we are today because David Cameron was worried about UKIP, because a lot of right wing Tories sold an entirely unachievable prospectus to the electorate and because those same right wing Tories will not accept that. This Brexit was made in the Conservative party and is owned entirely by the Conservative party - which once could claim to be the patriotic, pro-business party without being laughed out of court.
The grave of the Tory Party reads "Fuck Business"- Conservative Foreign Secretary* 2018.
* Not a sackable offence.
The Tory Party is putting forward and majority voting for a very workable Brexit Plan. It looks like the Labour Party is voting for the cliff edge crash.
Hmmm. Keep on saying it if it makes you feel better, but when Tory MPs are openly slagging off each other and sending open letters of no confidence in the PM to Brady, I think it's fair to say that this is not a Labour thing.
A minority of the Conservative parliamentary party is being irresponsible. The entirety of the Labour parliamentary party is.
If you want Labour to govern, it is very easy - resign.
Which brings us to the core of the matter. You lot are willing to crash the economy, plunging millions of people into joblessness and poverty to get a shot at government. You people are selfish and disgusting.
I love you too. You probably need to lie down. You're the one wanting Labour to ride to the rescue.
Why are so many people still considering their position? This is not rocket science - either you support the deal, whether or not it would pass the Commons, or you don't. If you don;t you quit if you do you stay and take the consequences when it is voted down.
There's not much to think about here when weighing options.
I have no sympathy for Grayling in the slightest as he's the Transport Secretary who doored a cyclist and then fled the scene.
However, I do think it could take some time to decide between your personal loyalty to an individual you have supported closely for a long time and your personal judgement on a matter of policy. He must trust May's judgement to a considerable degree, so to find his own judgement in conflict with it must be a wrench.
To discover that he has any judgment at all would be quite an achievement.
It is true, but it is totally irrelevant. We are where we are today because David Cameron was worried about UKIP, because a lot of right wing Tories sold an entirely unachievable prospectus to the electorate and because those same right wing Tories will not accept that. This Brexit was made in the Conservative party and is owned entirely by the Conservative party - which once could claim to be the patriotic, pro-business party without being laughed out of court.
The grave of the Tory Party reads "Fuck Business"- Conservative Foreign Secretary* 2018.
* Not a sackable offence.
The Tory Party is putting forward and majority voting for a very workable Brexit Plan. It looks like the Labour Party is voting for the cliff edge crash.
Hmmm. Keep on saying it if it makes you feel better, but when Tory MPs are openly slagging off each other and sending open letters of no confidence in the PM to Brady, I think it's fair to say that this is not a Labour thing.
A minority of the Conservative parliamentary party is being irresponsible. The entirety of the Labour parliamentary party is.
If you want Labour to govern, it is very easy - resign.
Which brings us to the core of the matter. You lot are willing to crash the economy, plunging millions of people into joblessness and poverty to get a shot at government. You people are selfish and disgusting.
I love you too. You probably need to lie down. You're the one wanting Labour to ride to the rescue.
To the rescue of the nation. They don't need to worry that the government would last long afterwards after all.
The amusing thing which is being lost in the maelstrom is that, on the EU side, there are concerns that the deal is too favourable to the UK:
France, Spain, Denmark and the Netherlands are all understood to have serious concerns that a customs union has been handed to the UK without sufficient safeguards to ensure British companies cannot undercut European industry. They are likely to make their voices heard at a meeting of EU affairs ministers on Monday.
They are not grandstanding, this has been a consistent concern in some parts of the EU right from the start.
Well yes, but then Labour would have lost a bunch of seats to the tories at the next election.
Corbyn may be stupid but having seen what happened to SLab on the whole "campaign with the Tories thingy" they weren't going to do that again.
I don't know about David Frum but there is nothing that would have delighted Glen O'Hara more than Labour losing scores of seats, so it is annoying to him that Corbyn isn't that stupid.
Blaming Labour for the current mess may make some Tories feel better about themselves but they would probably be better off confronting reality.
Same can be said for you and Corbyn's anti-Semitism. Embrace the reality.
I know it can be confusing for Islamophobes such as yourself but Corbyn continuing Ed's policies opposing the occupation of Palestine isn't anti semitism. Embrace the reality
LOL. I am not an Islamaphobe. Far from. I stand by my record on here of calling out Islamaphobia and anti-Semitism, and it says nothing positive about you that you descend to that level.
But for the record, Corbyn's doing much more than than you say. And people should stop hiding their anti-Semitism behind anti-Zionism.
I should ask how bonfire night went for you. Did you mix up your Katyusha and sparklers?
I think your just consistent in being an angry man, Islamophobes are often angry people.
Angry, nah. Amused. I'm quite enjoying today.
I'm intrigued why you keep on calling me an Islamaphobe. As far as I can tell, it's because I say that both the Palestinians and Israelis have to make moves to peace, and that my calls for he Palestinian groups to stop launching rockets (or in your words, fireworks) are a sign of a feverish Islamaphobe.
Despite the fact I say the Israelis have more moves to make as well.
Gove is going to have to come out of hiding at some point. He can't stay in a quantum superposition of Brexit secretary/Not brexit secretary/resigned/unresigned forever.
The amusing thing which is being lost in the maelstrom is that, on the EU side, there are concerns that the deal is too favourable to the UK:
France, Spain, Denmark and the Netherlands are all understood to have serious concerns that a customs union has been handed to the UK without sufficient safeguards to ensure British companies cannot undercut European industry. They are likely to make their voices heard at a meeting of EU affairs ministers on Monday.
They are not grandstanding, this has been a consistent concern in some parts of the EU right from the start.
It is true, but it is totally irrelevant. We are where we are today because David Cameron was worried about UKIP, because a lot of right wing Tories sold an entirely unachievable prospectus to the electorate and because those same right wing Tories will not accept that. This Brexit was made in the Conservative party and is owned entirely by the Conservative party - which once could claim to be the patriotic, pro-business party without being laughed out of court.
The grave of the Tory Party reads "Fuck Business"- Conservative Foreign Secretary* 2018.
* Not a sackable offence.
The Tory Party is putting forward and majority voting for a very workable Brexit Plan. It looks like the Labour Party is voting for the cliff edge crash.
Hmmm. Keep on saying it if it makes you feel better, but when Tory MPs are openly slagging off each other and sending open letters of no confidence in the PM to Brady, I think it's fair to say that this is not a Labour thing.
A minority of the Conservative parliamentary party is being irresponsible. The entirety of the Labour parliamentary party is.
If you want Labour to govern, it is very easy - resign.
Which brings us to the core of the matter. You lot are willing to crash the economy, plunging millions of people into joblessness and poverty to get a shot at government. You people are selfish and disgusting.
I've voted Tory in every election since 1997, and today's selfish and disgusting behaviour by the Tories will - in all likelihood - mean that I don't vote for them again. Given the state of Labour, I will probably end up just sitting at home. A plague on both their houses.
The amusing thing which is being lost in the maelstrom is that, on the EU side, there are concerns that the deal is too favourable to the UK:
France, Spain, Denmark and the Netherlands are all understood to have serious concerns that a customs union has been handed to the UK without sufficient safeguards to ensure British companies cannot undercut European industry. They are likely to make their voices heard at a meeting of EU affairs ministers on Monday.
They are not grandstanding, this has been a consistent concern in some parts of the EU right from the start.
So was it confirmed at Gove refused to accept the Brexit Secretary job? If so May lost two of them in a day - some going
Whoever takes it on is going to need to do some turbo-charged No Deal preparation. Basically, two years worth in two months....
That's not possible. No matter how much money or people you put into things sometimes they take time, you cannot do that much in that short space of time.
Gove is going to have to come out of hiding at some point. He can't stay in a quantum superposition of Brexit secretary/Not brexit secretary/resigned/unresigned forever.
Reporters said there were "genuine family reasons" so perhaps not today
Gove is going to have to come out of hiding at some point. He can't stay in a quantum superposition of Brexit secretary/Not brexit secretary/resigned/unresigned forever.
I've still not seen an answer as to why we need Brexit secretary. They seem to claim they never see anything until it is too late anyway, so just have the department report directly to the PM.
It's one less Cabinet Minister to inevitably resign.
Comments
That said, I don't think that general elections have to be on a Thursday.
But for the record, Corbyn's doing much more than than you say. And people should stop hiding their anti-Semitism behind anti-Zionism.
I should ask how bonfire night went for you. Did you mix up your Katyusha and sparklers?
She said perhaps some 10 times that she would not be calling a referendum.
Which, following the example of GE2017, means it's nailed on. I salute your perspicacity.
About 200-1 would be tempting.
* Not a sackable offence.
Whether Labour actually wanted Brexit or wanted to stop it the only way to let this play out and stop Brexit would be the current strategy where it has blown up in the Conservatives faces.
If we are talking votes in the house of commons I don't think there are any that could have been won that Labour didn't try to win.
If Brexit was ever to be stopped I believe it had to get to this situation first and Labour opposing Brexit would have been the perfect bogeyman to keep it going longer.
So what you're suggesting now is they don't simply want it over with. It's May's desire to get something to make this over which has led to us making concessions.
May decided she wanted to be Prime Minister when Cameron resigned. It might have been an over-inflated "sense of duty" but she took the chance when it was offered without any hesitation. Her conduct during the EU Referendum when she was almost as invisible as Jeremy Corbyn is all the evidence you need she is an opportunist who would have happily remained (as it were) as HS had Cameron stayed on and awaited his retirement before putting herself forward.
My guess is she will have to be dragged away from No.10 by her fingernails and its' interesting she is relying more on the Cabinet Secretary and other senior civil servants to support her and hold the line. She is treating the office of PM just as she did the office of Home Secretary surrounding herself with sycophantically loyal officials and advisers.
However, I do think it could take some time to decide between your personal loyalty to an individual you have supported closely for a long time and your personal judgement on a matter of policy. He must trust May's judgement to a considerable degree, so to find his own judgement in conflict with it must be a wrench.
What I said was the Tories were responsible for the current mess which exists regardless of Labours future voting intentions on the deal. Which they are. So I do agree with you but my specific point was about the current situation.
And in turn a referendum and ultimately Remain will in due course become favourite too.
Brexiteers have overplayed their hand.
May will refuse, which *surely* means Mordaunt has to go.
https://twitter.com/Brexit/status/1063079665965916160
I do think that will change. Even as (in fact because of how) pathetically riven as they are the Tories will not want to concede a GE as the price (I don't see how they avoid one in 2019 at some point though) for a referendum, and a referendum is Labour's backup option if there is no GE, so I would think there is a chance they will agree for a no deal, deal, remain referendum, with Labour backing remain and Tories arguing every which way. I know Labour have leave votes, but their membership and MPs know what they want to do here. Maybe it would be on a free campaign and vote, in which case most Labour people will campaign for remain.
Someone has described today as 'The last days of Caligula without the orgies and shagging'
Do you think this is a good weekend to write threads in advance?
I reckon that takes it up to an 80% probability [/rorystewart]
Instead she's show no backbone and simply wound down the clock until signing the deal the EU wrote for her. She doesn't deserve kudos for that.
Moreover, while I am not voting Tory again for a very long time at the least, it is very disheartening that people are still choosing to focus, overwhelmingly, on which party to blame the most right now and how much, and their leadership ambitions, etc etc.
Corbyn may be stupid but having seen what happened to SLab on the whole "campaign with the Tories thingy" they weren't going to do that again.
France, Spain, Denmark and the Netherlands are all understood to have serious concerns that a customs union has been handed to the UK without sufficient safeguards to ensure British companies cannot undercut European industry. They are likely to make their voices heard at a meeting of EU affairs ministers on Monday.
They are not grandstanding, this has been a consistent concern in some parts of the EU right from the start.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/15/theresa-may-brexit-deal-best-we-can-do-brussels-warns
Supporting this Deal is going to be CV strychnine for any of her wannabe successors. *Nobody* wants to touch it.
I understand Mr Gove is having his wisdom teeth fixed..
I'm intrigued why you keep on calling me an Islamaphobe. As far as I can tell, it's because I say that both the Palestinians and Israelis have to make moves to peace, and that my calls for he Palestinian groups to stop launching rockets (or in your words, fireworks) are a sign of a feverish Islamaphobe.
Despite the fact I say the Israelis have more moves to make as well.
Is that it, or have I committed some other sin?
It's one less Cabinet Minister to inevitably resign.