If I were forced to guess right now, I'd say Jeremy Corbyn is forming the next government.
I doubt it, at most it will be a Hammond and LDs confidence and supply deal for soft Brexit (perhaps 'cashing in' transition controls from 2004 Blair did not do), even on BBC exit poll that would have a majority
I have no idea what to think or feel. On one hand Con largest party, but NOM dream is partly coming true, on the other what the actual fucking fuck. Then to balance it out, yay SNP may b down!
I'm loving this. The consequences can sort themselves out later.
Democracy is fun.
Yeah, this exciting (the post you quoted was referencing my assessment of PBers, not my actual mood....I don't know what the hell to expect, but I don't expect anyone to do get to anything too extreme once a government is formed).
BBC MerseysideAccount verificato @bbcmerseyside 5 min5 minuti fa Labour candidate @MikeAmesbury is confident of winning the Weaver Vale seat from the Conservatives #GE2017 #BBCelection
Remember Boris can't replace May. Ruth hates him as much as she hates the SNP.
So does the EU, they despise Boris, they were merely indifferent to May, if Boris is PM it is definitely hard Brexit the EU will set terms so impossible he could not meet them. If Boris is Tory leader it will only be in opposition. Hammond is the only one who could get the LDs on board and do a deal with the EU, I have to say he was very calm and assured and spoke well at the CCHQ phonebank last week when I went, I would be happy with Hammond as PM as a Tory member if there was no alternative to get a Tory government
If I were forced to guess right now, I'd say Jeremy Corbyn is forming the next government.
I doubt it, at most it will be a Hammond and LDs confidence and supply deal for soft Brexit (perhaps 'cashing in' transition controls from 2004 Blair did not do), even on BBC exit poll that would have a majority
Hammond as PM would be absolutely fine by me. What are the chances realistically?
BBC MerseysideAccount verificato @bbcmerseyside 5 min5 minuti fa Labour candidate @MikeAmesbury is confident of winning the Weaver Vale seat from the Conservatives #GE2017 #BBCelection
Lol corbyn was there yesterday. What about Aberconwy???
LDs confident in cheadle and hazel grove. Didn't expect that.
Going by the poster count for Mark Hunter, I thought when driving through this constituency a few days ago that the LDs might have a chance in Cheadle.
Mortimer, CarlottaVance, Alanbrooke, Alanbrooke, can you hear me?
Your girl took one hell of a beating.
Perhaps increasing student fees, making housing unaffordable, borrowing hundreds of billions more than predicted and then trashing the Project Fear brand weren't George Osborne's best strategic moves.
For those saying exit poll looks spot on it looks like the Cons aren't not doing well in Wales like the exit poll predicted.
So even worse for Con that it seemed. This is worrisome - it doesn't take much less than 314 before PM Corbyn becomes a real possibility. Tories getting tiny swings in the NE don't mean jack.
If I were forced to guess right now, I'd say Jeremy Corbyn is forming the next government.
I doubt it, at most it will be a Hammond and LDs confidence and supply deal for soft Brexit (perhaps 'cashing in' transition controls from 2004 Blair did not do), even on BBC exit poll that would have a majority
Hammond as PM would be absolutely fine by me. What are the chances realistically?
Better than the 500/1 that was tipped here a while ago.
BBC MerseysideAccount verificato @bbcmerseyside 5 min5 minuti fa Labour candidate @MikeAmesbury is confident of winning the Weaver Vale seat from the Conservatives #GE2017 #BBCelection
Wow -- thought Labour might sneak some gains in this part of the world, but would never have expected that one.
Mortimer, CarlottaVance, Alanbrooke, Alanbrooke, can you hear me?
Your girl took one hell of a beating.
*If* it ends up as the exit poll says, I shall replay my conversation with Alanbrooke from the other day over and over.
The thing none of the talking heads are saying on TV - and surprisingly few people are saying here - is it was the dementia tax. It was all the dementia tax. Don't mess with people's homes. The Tories stomped home at the locals last month. The narrative changed with the dementia tax.
Can anyone think of an appropriate punishment for Nick Timothy? I'm struggling right now.
Something extraordionary going on here. The Brexit election which did not even dare speak its name, where everyone mocked the LD's for making it a central plank - and now a swing to Labour seems to be exactly mapped on to the remain areas, largely, apparently by young voters who didn't turn out for the referendum.
Brexit, Act II - The young.
Firstly, we don't know the extent of the turnout of the younger voters. Is it up? If so, by how much? Secondly, we don't know exactly what factors motivated them to vote.
Some people are assuming that Brexit was the main factor. We may find out after the election that the abolition of student fees was more important.
We simply do not know yet. People are projecting their own feelings on to this.
Remember Boris can't replace May. Ruth hates him as much as she hates the SNP.
So does the EU, they despise Boris, they were merely indifferent to May, if Boris is PM it is definitely hard Brexit the EU will set terms so impossible he could not meet them. If Boris is Tory leader it will only be in opposition. Hammond is the only one who could get the LDs on board and do a deal with the EU, I have to say he was very calm and assured and spoke well at the CCHQ phonebank last week when I went, I would be happy with Hammond as PM as a Tory member if there was no alternative to get a Tory government
The LD's are not going to get on board with the Tories, this time round.
So just to be clear, the results so far are a notional swing of 6.5% to the Conservatives compared to the exit poll projection, but Conservative Majority is 2.6 at Betfair? Hmm.
Something extraordionary going on here. The Brexit election which did not even dare speak its name, where everyone mocked the LD's for making it a central plank - and now a swing to Labour seems to be exactly mapped on to the remain areas, largely, apparently by young voters who didn't turn out for the referendum.
Brexit, Act II - The young.
Firstly, we don't know the extent of the turnout of the younger voters. Is it up? If so, by how much? Secondly, we don't know exactly what factors motivated them to vote.
Some people are assuming that Brexit was the main factor. We may find out after the election that the abolition of student fees was more important.
We simply do not know yet. People are projecting their own feelings on to this.
Just like people projected their interpretation onto the EU referendum. The result is the result; the consequences are the consequences. Brexit is dead in the water.
On results so far, Cons +6% to Exit poll, Lab -6% to Exit poll.......
But where the swings are more or less are critical. Good swings in no hoper seats won't make the exit poll seat predictions any better, in fact it could be worse.
So it looks like pretty much all the experts were wrong.
From OGH to JackW to JohnO to TSE to Kieran Pedley among PBers alone.
But so were many of the opinion polls and blogging experts.
And so were almost all the MPs - the Conservatives have been campaigning to make gains while Labour MPs were fighting defensively in their own constituencies.
Comments
PS. Dimbleby isn't the talented anchor he once was. Perhaps he's a disappointed Tory? He's all but growling
A swing to Labour in Swindon north???
Democracy is fun.
Your girl took one hell of a beating.
I still think we're heading for Con maj, but even so. Shocked.
Labour candidate @MikeAmesbury is confident of winning the Weaver Vale seat from the Conservatives #GE2017 #BBCelection
Sunderland Central
Lab 53
Con 33
Reality
Lab 55
Con 33
It's happening.
She's a pound shop Andrew Bonar Law.
0.6% Lab to Con swing
There are loads of northern marginals.
UKIP voters polled were too politically engaged, giving clever answers.
Tories up 6% on exit poll, Labour 6% lower than exit poll nationwide
But Labour might gain Kensington.
Can anyone think of an appropriate punishment for Nick Timothy? I'm struggling right now.
Secondly, we don't know exactly what factors motivated them to vote.
Some people are assuming that Brexit was the main factor. We may find out after the election that the abolition of student fees was more important.
We simply do not know yet. People are projecting their own feelings on to this.
Washington and Sunderland WEst
Lab: 57
Con 29
Reality
Lab 60
Con 29
FUUUUUCK ME
YouGov's model looking spookily accurate right now.
It would finish them.
https://twitter.com/ProfChalmers/status/872955414115168256
From OGH to JackW to JohnO to TSE to Kieran Pedley among PBers alone.
But so were many of the opinion polls and blogging experts.
And so were almost all the MPs - the Conservatives have been campaigning to make gains while Labour MPs were fighting defensively in their own constituencies.
A total misread of the country.