Is there a possibility that the Remain voters have reaped revenge and picked the non-governing party, whilst Leave voters, despite backing the Conservatives more have not done so with the same discipline. As such the non-Conservative parties will gain more than the Conservatives do?
The Conservative Party made a major error. Brexit has always been a JOURNEY. The best thing for the country was for us to take back, over the next decade, ever greater amounts of power.
This way we could have completely removed the "money" issue, as we'd pay in during the transition but not take out. We'd be able to negotiate new trade deals.
Gah.
Brexit was promoted on false premises. Saying Brexit is a JOURNEY is spin. If I divorce my wife, it isn't a journey in any meaningful sense.
What an absolute shambles if May doesn't scrape a majority. To throw away a 20 point lead, great local elections a month ago and all against Jeremey fucking Corbyn is utterly astonishing.
Memo to CCHQ - someone had better be working hard on the next manifesto by lunchtime tomorrow. We're going to need it soon, and it had better be good this time. Oh, and we'll need someone new to front it too.
Somewhere around YouGov to Exit poll seems right. Don;t know where claims of Cobryn in government come from.
Con largest doesn't mean Con government. Nobody other than the unionist parties is likely to support their QS. If it's bang on the exit I think they can just do it (functional majority in single figures). Any worse and it's our old friend, the Coalition of Chsos.
If Lab are on ~266 it could hardly be Corbyn as PM
too many Pb comments, i'm just skipping to the last page on each thread. What's the PB consensus so far? tory minority govt, lab coalition of chaos, or tory eeking out a majority?
Tory minority govt
Sorry Sean but Tory sub 300 and labour minority government. Brexit dead
The Conservative Party made a major error. Brexit has always been a JOURNEY. The best thing for the country was for us to take back, over the next decade, ever greater amounts of power.
This way we could have completely removed the "money" issue, as we'd pay in during the transition but not take out. We'd be able to negotiate new trade deals.
Gah.
Brexit was promoted on false premises. Saying Brexit is a JOURNEY is spin. If I divorce my wife, it isn't a journey in any meaningful sense.
It's certainly turning into a journey for the Tory party
If Tories are in trouble in Kensington, Putney and Witney how can they possibly be largest party?
They can't be. I'm calling credible on the first two, bullshit in Witney.
However in a discussion earlier we mentioned that Witney, Wantage, Henley, Maidenhead etc all have a very similar profile and voting history, so one result could be repeated - however of course in Witney the LDs laid a lot more groundwork a few months ago.
too many Pb comments, i'm just skipping to the last page on each thread. What's the PB consensus so far? tory minority govt, lab coalition of chaos, or tory eeking out a majority?
Analogies can be drawn with Feb 1974 and July 1970, when incumbent Governments were both surprisingly defeated. But by far the greatest parallel is December 1923, when the new Tory Prime Minister Stanley Baldwin called a sudden, snap, unnecessary election on the question of Britain's global trading relationship. To the shock of the establishment, he lost badly and ushered in the first Labour administration, led by Ramsay MacDonald, a man who was often painted as extreme and unpatriotic.
Somewhere around YouGov to Exit poll seems right. Don;t know where claims of Cobryn in government come from.
Con largest doesn't mean Con government. Nobody other than the unionist parties is likely to support their QS. If it's bang on the exit I think they can just do it (functional majority in single figures). Any worse and it's our old friend, the Coalition of Chsos.
If Lab are on ~266 it could hardly be Corbyn as PM
That's how it works. I'd say you should blame the people who wrote the constitution but...well, that's the problem really.
I still don't see any route from here to a Corbyn premiership.
Thank fuck.
Tory NOM, Boris, Faron or Hammond, as PM, a rethink on Hard Brexit, a new election in October.
Yes, I think we're looking at 330 seats, but May is done. Literally fucking done.
Seems like you are not happy !
I'll be happy if we get to 320 seats by tomorrow morning and Theresa May is gone by Monday, plus an EEA/EFTA Brexit. Would be the ideal result for me personally because I don't think hard Brexit is optimal.
To be honest, Max, it wouldn't surprised me if Brexit is kicked into the long grass now. All the EU27 have to do is vote unanimously to extend the A50 period indefinitely, or for 5-10 years, and do a new treaty with the UK, perhaps generously putting Dave's deal back on the table again.
Then I and millions like me will be back to voting UKIP again.
Do you think I'm ever voting or supporting UKIP again given how their voters have broken for Labour, tonight?
UKIP'ers might have ended up betraying their own Brexit.
Its not about Labour or the Tories its about our country. It is a shame you don't see that.
I don't think UKIP voters have broken for Labour.
There's been a direct Con to Lab swing.
People who want free university for their kids and who are scared about losing their homes and WFA.
The LDs, Tory, and SNP will all be within a few percent of each other.
If the Lib Dems have Gordon, then they will be well above 20
If the LDs are over 20, then I foresee a Tory-LD Coalition, and very Soft Brexit?
LDs won't touch coalition with anyone, and they won't even make any informal agreement with the Tories, I'd bet my house on that even with having called the GE wrong. They'll back Corbyn for as soft a brexit as they can manage, call it a 'progressive' arrangement (not coalition) and the SNP will make up the numbers.
This result is going to be a harder brexit than anything. May would have produced
We need hard Brexit (and I say that as a leaver). Anything else will be a few years of chaos, especially now. Short term pain instead of medium-term chaos.
People have to learn that democracy means living with their decisions. That means 2016 as well as 2017.
too many Pb comments, i'm just skipping to the last page on each thread. What's the PB consensus so far? tory minority govt, lab coalition of chaos, or tory eeking out a majority?
Tory minority govt
Sorry Sean but Tory sub 300 and labour minority government. Brexit dead
Comments
'NO, NO Hard Brexit for you'
Memo to CCHQ - someone had better be working hard on the next manifesto by lunchtime tomorrow. We're going to need it soon, and it had better be good this time. Oh, and we'll need someone new to front it too.
"
Same dribbling moron who said IDS would lose his seat.
Great campaign, Theresa. Well done!
Cons 24809
Lab 22314
Tory hold
However in a discussion earlier we mentioned that Witney, Wantage, Henley, Maidenhead etc all have a very similar profile and voting history, so one result could be repeated - however of course in Witney the LDs laid a lot more groundwork a few months ago.
Heaven help us.
What a strange night
This site has been so wrong on May, Corbyn etc I'm not inclined to take more of its advice.
It's all pocket change compared to how much I'd lose if the LDs lose Orkney & Shetland, however.
People who want free university for their kids and who are scared about losing their homes and WFA.
People have to learn that democracy means living with their decisions. That means 2016 as well as 2017.
Con 15321
Lab 17000
Labour hold
It'd save me frantically and drunkenly typing into wiki.
The biggest strategic error in political history, backing hard Brexit? Discuss.
Step foward, PM Corbyn.
See some of you in Canada.