I think the London attack is going to be a net negative for the tories, the issues around MI5 and police inaction will, fairly or unfairly, be seen as a governance problem. May has been PM or Home Sec since 2010 and the buck stops with her for these issues in the eyes of the public. I think the Enough is Enough narrative will fail to catch on as it is replaced by anger at why we didn't stop these people before. It won't have a big effect, but it will perhaps stop any consolidation of the security vote for May. People won't be humming the 'enough is enough' line as they go into polling booths.
Standing by my prediction of Tory majority of 50-80, but don't see a new landslide likely, as some on here have since predicted.
Totally agree apart from the majority which I expect to be 150.Regarding Police cuts she looked into the wrong area amalgamation of many of the 43 English forces was the way forward.For example a Yorkshire force instead of North South West and Humberside Police.However there was more concern about parochial issues than national interest.
I would prefer May govt to Corbyn all day long, but I don't think Tories quite understand how difficult it is for someone who has voted Labour all their life to vote Conservative. I was chatting w the lady in the betting shop while backing UKIP to win Dagenham yesterday, and she (and her man who was there) had always voted Lab, cant have Corbyn at all, but just cant bring herself to vote Tory. My parents are the same, as am I to a certain extent. Small sample obviously, but I think this leads to low turnout Lab/Tory marginals.. Many Lab just wont vote, tacitly hoping for a Con win
Yep - I agree. Corbyn is a massive liability, but actively voting Tory is a step too far for many.
Why?
It's just a party.
Primarily because the Tories are led by a very poor Prime Minister who has assembled a team of non-entities and incompetents.
More philosophically, the track record of Tory governments is not great if you are sitting in a Labour heartland seat. The Tories have been in control for most of the last 50 years and overall have delivered very little. Because of FPTP, their focus is on where they have the best chance of winning (as is Labour's, of course).
I am not sure Theresa May is the problem. Most Lab people I know like her than Cameron, he was a real turn off
In my case its more feeling your family would be disappointed in you. That's what my Dad says he cant vote Tory, as his Dad would be so disappointed in him.
Mind you, his brother, my uncle, is a member of the Con Club!
I think the London attack is going to be a net negative for the tories, the issues around MI5 and police inaction will, fairly or unfairly, be seen as a governance problem. May has been PM or Home Sec since 2010 and the buck stops with her for these issues in the eyes of the public. I think the Enough is Enough narrative will fail to catch on as it is replaced by anger at why we didn't stop these people before. It won't have a big effect, but it will perhaps stop any consolidation of the security vote for May. People won't be humming the 'enough is enough' line as they go into polling booths.
Standing by my prediction of Tory majority of 50-80, but don't see a new landslide likely, as some on here have since predicted.
Yes, that's exactly how I feel, Paris.
I'm a born and bred Londoner, and have lived here most of my life. It is a tolerant and welcoming City but when moved Londoners are a force of nature. There's a sense of anger and outrage that my normally phlegmatic city dwellers rarely display, and I just do not see it playing to the PM's advantage. The locals are not a wildly political bunch but the fact she was Home Secretary for six years will not have gone unnoticed.
Personally I will be surprised if London does not trend Labour, even against the national trend.
View from London, and I'm sure you're right, for london. London is the last Labour bastion. Here in the North the Tories are poised to clean up. The only thing which will save some Labour seats is where UKIP are standing.
YouGov has again updated its rolling seat-based model (not sure how meaningful today's update is, given that Sunday's VI survey had technical problems?)
Tory seats down one to 304, Labour seats down two to 266, vote share still 42%/38%. LDs down one to 12. SNP up to 46, PC 2, Green 1, and still the Indy in East Devon.
@gabyhinsliff: Torn by the whole Abbott situation. She's obv hopelessly under-prepped & fair to expose that. But there's an ugly, bullying tone to it all.
@DAaronovitch: @gabyhinsliff@GroomB I suppose the question is if she were a middle aged white man would you feel the same? Or would she get away with it?
@gabyhinsliff: @DAaronovitch@GroomB as I was just saying to someone else, it mainly reminds me of IDS at the end. Also not up to it. But things just got weirdly cruel. So; no.
@DAaronovitch: @gabyhinsliff@GroomB Good point. We slaughtered IDS. It was gruesome and I couldn’t watch that Murnaghan thing to the end it was so embarrassing.
I think the London attack is going to be a net negative for the tories, the issues around MI5 and police inaction will, fairly or unfairly, be seen as a governance problem. May has been PM or Home Sec since 2010 and the buck stops with her for these issues in the eyes of the public. I think the Enough is Enough narrative will fail to catch on as it is replaced by anger at why we didn't stop these people before. It won't have a big effect, but it will perhaps stop any consolidation of the security vote for May. People won't be humming the 'enough is enough' line as they go into polling booths.
Standing by my prediction of Tory majority of 50-80, but don't see a new landslide likely, as some on here have since predicted.
Yes, that's exactly how I feel, Paris.
I'm a born and bred Londoner, and have lived here most of my life. It is a tolerant and welcoming City but when moved Londoners are a force of nature. There's a sense of anger and outrage that my normally phlegmatic city dwellers rarely display, and I just do not see it playing to the PM's advantage. The locals are not a wildly political bunch but the fact she was Home Secretary for six years will not have gone unnoticed.
Personally I will be surprised if London does not trend Labour, even against the national trend.
View from London, and I'm sure you're right, for london. London is the last Labour bastion. Here in the North the Tories are poised to clean up. The only thing which will save some Labour seats is where UKIP are standing.
Don't dispute it, Leeds. I can only report as I find, as I am sure you do too.
I would prefer May govt to Corbyn all day long, but I don't think Tories quite understand how difficult it is for someone who has voted Labour all their life to vote Conservative. I was chatting w the lady in the betting shop while backing UKIP to win Dagenham yesterday, and she (and her man who was there) had always voted Lab, cant have Corbyn at all, but just cant bring herself to vote Tory. My parents are the same, as am I to a certain extent. Small sample obviously, but I think this leads to low turnout Lab/Tory marginals.. Many Lab just wont vote, tacitly hoping for a Con win
Yep - I agree. Corbyn is a massive liability, but actively voting Tory is a step too far for many.
Why?
It's just a party.
Primarily because the Tories are led by a very poor Prime Minister who has assembled a team of non-entities and incompetents.
More philosophically, the track record of Tory governments is not great if you are sitting in a Labour heartland seat. The Tories have been in control for most of the last 50 years and overall have delivered very little. Because of FPTP, their focus is on where they have the best chance of winning (as is Labour's, of course).
I am not sure Theresa May is the problem. Most Lab people I know like her than Cameron, he was a real turn off
In my case its more feeling your family would be disappointed in you. That's what my Dad says he cant vote Tory, as his Dad would be so disappointed in him.
Mind you, his brother, my uncle, is a member of the Con Club!
My father never dared join the Con Club while his father was alive!
@jessicaelgot: Johnson says Corbyn had "taken the side of every adversary we have had, from IRA to Hamas." And then almost compares them to EU...
@jessicaelgot: "Of course, I don't mean to compare them to our European friends..." Boris clarifies
Boris Johnson is a moron. Hamas has never been an adversary of Britain.
Hamas has always spoken out against British involvement in the area and would happily kill British citizens in Israel if they believed it would favour their course.
I think the London attack is going to be a net negative for the tories, the issues around MI5 and police inaction will, fairly or unfairly, be seen as a governance problem. May has been PM or Home Sec since 2010 and the buck stops with her for these issues in the eyes of the public. I think the Enough is Enough narrative will fail to catch on as it is replaced by anger at why we didn't stop these people before. It won't have a big effect, but it will perhaps stop any consolidation of the security vote for May. People won't be humming the 'enough is enough' line as they go into polling booths.
Standing by my prediction of Tory majority of 50-80, but don't see a new landslide likely, as some on here have since predicted.
Yes, that's exactly how I feel, Paris.
I'm a born and bred Londoner, and have lived here most of my life. It is a tolerant and welcoming City but when moved Londoners are a force of nature. There's a sense of anger and outrage that my normally phlegmatic city dwellers rarely display, and I just do not see it playing to the PM's advantage. The locals are not a wildly political bunch but the fact she was Home Secretary for six years will not have gone unnoticed.
Personally I will be surprised if London does not trend Labour, even against the national trend.
I think London will be a big labour win
There is a big swell of support for Labour in London and they'll take Croydon Central. But do you think they may take seats such as Hendon, Harrow East, Enfield Southgate? The next one after that is Finchley & Golders Green - very unlikely.
I would prefer May govt to Corbyn all day long, but I don't think Tories quite understand how difficult it is for someone who has voted Labour all their life to vote Conservative. I was chatting w the lady in the betting shop while backing UKIP to win Dagenham yesterday, and she (and her man who was there) had always voted Lab, cant have Corbyn at all, but just cant bring herself to vote Tory. My parents are the same, as am I to a certain extent. Small sample obviously, but I think this leads to low turnout Lab/Tory marginals.. Many Lab just wont vote, tacitly hoping for a Con win
Yep - I agree. Corbyn is a massive liability, but actively voting Tory is a step too far for many.
Why?
It's just a party.
Primarily because the Tories are led by a very poor Prime Minister who has assembled a team of non-entities and incompetents.
More philosophically, the track record of Tory governments is not great if you are sitting in a Labour heartland seat. The Tories have been in control for most of the last 50 years and overall have delivered very little. Because of FPTP, their focus is on where they have the best chance of winning (as is Labour's, of course).
I am not sure Theresa May is the problem. Most Lab people I know like her than Cameron, he was a real turn off
In my case its more feeling your family would be disappointed in you. That's what my Dad says he cant vote Tory, as his Dad would be so disappointed in him.
Mind you, his brother, my uncle, is a member of the Con Club!
My father never dared join the Con Club while his father was alive!
Personally, I won’t go in the place!
Oh my Grandad died in 1973...My Dad could prob console himself that times have changed!
@AidanKerrTweets: Tories gaining confidence of winning Edinburgh South West but losing confidence of winning East Renfrewshire. We'll find out soon #GE2017
@jessicaelgot: Johnson says Corbyn had "taken the side of every adversary we have had, from IRA to Hamas." And then almost compares them to EU...
@jessicaelgot: "Of course, I don't mean to compare them to our European friends..." Boris clarifies
Boris Johnson is a moron. Hamas has never been an adversary of Britain.
Hamas has always spoken out against British involvement in the area and would happily kill British citizens in Israel if they believed it would favour their course.
You're struggling there.
The only state established by terrorists (fighting against Britain as it happens) in that region is Israel.
I think the London attack is going to be a net negative for the tories, the issues around MI5 and police inaction will, fairly or unfairly, be seen as a governance problem. May has been PM or Home Sec since 2010 and the buck stops with her for these issues in the eyes of the public. I think the Enough is Enough narrative will fail to catch on as it is replaced by anger at why we didn't stop these people before. It won't have a big effect, but it will perhaps stop any consolidation of the security vote for May. People won't be humming the 'enough is enough' line as they go into polling booths.
Standing by my prediction of Tory majority of 50-80, but don't see a new landslide likely, as some on here have since predicted.
Yes, that's exactly how I feel, Paris.
I'm a born and bred Londoner, and have lived here most of my life. It is a tolerant and welcoming City but when moved Londoners are a force of nature. There's a sense of anger and outrage that my normally phlegmatic city dwellers rarely display, and I just do not see it playing to the PM's advantage. The locals are not a wildly political bunch but the fact she was Home Secretary for six years will not have gone unnoticed.
Personally I will be surprised if London does not trend Labour, even against the national trend.
I think London will be a big labour win
There is a big swell of support for Labour in London and they'll take Croydon Central. But do you think they may take seats such as Hendon, Harrow East, Enfield Southgate? The next one after that is Finchley & Golders Green - very unlikely.
@gabyhinsliff: Torn by the whole Abbott situation. She's obv hopelessly under-prepped & fair to expose that. But there's an ugly, bullying tone to it all.
@DAaronovitch: @gabyhinsliff@GroomB I suppose the question is if she were a middle aged white man would you feel the same? Or would she get away with it?
@gabyhinsliff: @DAaronovitch@GroomB as I was just saying to someone else, it mainly reminds me of IDS at the end. Also not up to it. But things just got weirdly cruel. So; no.
@DAaronovitch: @gabyhinsliff@GroomB Good point. We slaughtered IDS. It was gruesome and I couldn’t watch that Murnaghan thing to the end it was so embarrassing.
If a middle aged white man had spoke about race the way Abbott has, he would have been booted out of politics way before middle age
More BREAKING: Conservatives likely to be 22 seats short of majority - YouGov election model.
Those vote shares ain't budging. Reminds me of 2015
You gov seems frozen in time - are they still 42-38
Until yesterday there was a small trend towards anti-Tory tactical voting in the seat model; today there seems to be a small SNP recovery. Otherwise it is very static. They do however claim to be re-polling only a proportion of the 50,000 panel every day (mine are coming through every 2-3 days recently).
Don't these suicide bombers have some sort of dispensation and a free ticket to heaven blessed by some sort of religious representative?
I'm pretty sure that's what they imagine they have.
I was re-reading Anthony Burgess' Earthly Powers recently and in it a loony Jim-Jones-type cult preacher tells his congregation that if they take a suicide pill, they will wake up in heaven an instant later. That put it very well for me. I think that is how they see it.
It is then clear why the 9/11 hijackers spent their last few weeks buying prostituted women and boozing. If you're about to do something that's sure to get you into heaven, you can blacken the slate as much as you like. All that sex and booze they've been itching to try, they can try it now.
One of the better ideas we need to conquer Islamism may be a more casual approach to sex. If these young men were getting more they'd have a channel for their spare energy and they might also come to a realisation that as pastimes go it's a bit overrated anyway.
My 'live' Fb is under my actual name and reflects my actual life but entirely omits any mention of my political interests... it is a politics-free haven.
Call the real me a very shy (card-carrying) Tory, that is, shy everywhere except here and in conversation (not online) with a few highly political friends. (When I was fitter, I was an activist but that was some time back and pre-Facebook.)
I live in an ultra-safe Tory constituency.
I have received 2-3 Tory messages daily throughout the campaign period, both positive and attacking Labour.
Messages from the Labour Party? Zero.
Make of that what you will.
I have never discussed politics on FB as it just seems inflame all the wrong passions, so I avoid it. I generally never look at FB adverts because a huge proportion of them seem to be fake or from suspect, recently registered domains (I did some research of my own a while back and 40% of FB adverts in my feed were for fake fashion items behind false domains)
So, on that basis I have just taken the trouble to actually look at the adverts and there is a Tory one urging me to vote Tory for the best Brexit deal (great focusing there.... not!). Having said that, an ad for "Vets for Pets" is higher up the list and my cat has been dead 6 years.
Unfortunately, Grandad voted by post last week. But nice try...
Grandpa "01274 516872, who is it?" Momentum "Hello Grandpa, it's Zander Britney Tarquin" G "Oh hello, the one with Purple hair and metal in your face? I thought you were on a Gap Yah in Tibet". M "That's the one. Who will you be voting for in the election". G "May I suppose" M "But you can't grandpa, the Tories are evil" G "As opposed to the Garden Gnome that likes terrorists and people who aren't British?" M "But you don't understand. He's going to transform the economy..." G "Transform my bloody wallet more like. Didn't you drop economics in your community college and concentrate on putting Solar Panels on Yurts or something?" M "How can you be so Uncaring, there's starving Nurses in food banks and the poor don't have access to Interpretive dance" G "Probably the IRA shooting at me on the Falls Road might have something to do with it. Now listen son"... M "Son, that's an outdated Gender Stereotype that doesn't recognise the emotional gender fluidity of today's modern caring generation" G "Huh? You been playing American Football without a helmet again?" M "You just don't care, it's like Brexit all over again, you're destroying my future" G "Protecting your future more like, rather than inviting the first 80 Pages of the Bucharest phone directory in every day to compete against you. Speaking of which, how's the job hunt going". M "I'm finding that people are scared of my ideas in job interviews when I tell them how they need to run their business. Also they're not paying enough to recognise my talents" G "Right oh, Must dash, your Grandma says hello" M "Oh, You just don't understand. You're being so unfair, I hate you" G "Love you too son. Bye then".
I would prefer May govt to Corbyn all day long, but I don't think Tories quite understand how difficult it is for someone who has voted Labour all their life to vote Conservative. I was chatting w the lady in the betting shop while backing UKIP to win Dagenham yesterday, and she (and her man who was there) had always voted Lab, cant have Corbyn at all, but just cant bring herself to vote Tory. My parents are the same, as am I to a certain extent. Small sample obviously, but I think this leads to low turnout Lab/Tory marginals.. Many Lab just wont vote, tacitly hoping for a Con win
Yep - I agree. Corbyn is a massive liability, but actively voting Tory is a step too far for many.
Why?
It's just a party.
Primarily because the Tories are led by a very poor Prime Minister who has assembled a team of non-entities and incompetents.
More philosophically, the track record of Tory governments is not great if you are sitting in a Labour heartland seat. The Tories have been in control for most of the last 50 years and overall have delivered very little. Because of FPTP, their focus is on where they have the best chance of winning (as is Labour's, of course).
I am not sure Theresa May is the problem. Most Lab people I know like her than Cameron, he was a real turn off
In my case its more feeling your family would be disappointed in you. That's what my Dad says he cant vote Tory, as his Dad would be so disappointed in him.
Mind you, his brother, my uncle, is a member of the Con Club!
The family thing is definitely also very strong. But, in the end, the Tories do not prioritise areas that have a history of voting Labour - just as Labour governments are not going to factor Tory voting areas into their planning.
Cutting spending is almost off the table now. None of the parties are talking about it, the public has had enough, and the upward pressures on pensions, health, social care and education are significant. Obviously there'll still be constraints on most departments, but total public spending is not going to go down.
They'll have a go at raising some more money next, depending on how constrained they are by their politics and promises.
The eventual 'solution' will be a sustained period of inflation above interest rates, on the basis that all of the alternative solutions to the debt crisis are more catastrophic.
Unfortunately we are still living far beyond our means and there is no prospect of us doing anything about it until it is too late. Things like making sure corporations pay their taxes properly are necessary but only in terms of removing the distraction and proving that the underlying problem cannot be solved that way. Raising taxes will not work long term because eventually you run into Maggie's old adage and run out of other people's money. In the meantime people get more and more wedded to the idea that the 'Government' will always provide all these services. It is simply fantasy and the sooner we face up to that the better.
Our political system (and arguably our economic and financial ones as well) doesn't point people towards the right long-term decisions, though. The upside of short-term decisions is always greater than of doing the right thing longer term.
True but you do eventually reach a point where this is no longer sustainable.
At the moment the politicians have been dumb and allowed the reality of this to be deflected by valid arguments about corporate pay and taxes, loopholes and avoidance. They have allowed a myth to develop that if only everyone paid what they were supposed to under the current arrangements then we would be able to fund the welfare state, the NHS and everything else they demand.
This is why we need to deal with those things and close all the loopholes, force the companies to pay tax in the UK and make sure everyone pays what they are supposed to - not because it will provide all the money we need, but because it will burn away that last fig leaf that the left hide behind in their claims about what is possible I terms of state provision.
Theresa May is in Wrexham at the moment. All Lab seats outside London with less than 8k majority (and a ukip vote) seem to be in play judging by the on the ground campaigning. There is no panic from the Tories, no throwing the kitchen sink and betting market reflects this.
Other than the 'worst' polls is there any strong evidence for a hung parliament or the Tory seat share going backwards?
One of the better ideas we need to conquer Islamism may be a more casual approach to sex. If these young men were getting more they'd have a channel for their spare energy and they might also come to a realisation that as pastimes go it's a bit overrated anyway.
Hmmm... I think I see what you are trying to get at, but I think enough blokes already have a sufficiently casual attitude to sex that I could do without adding another legion or two to the numbers.
If Farron loses, it will be excellent news for the LibDems. (Assuming that one of Brake, Lamb, or Swinson wins.) Of course, it could be that the young LibDem candidate for Edinburgh West or Fife NE ends up the LibDem leader.
Tell me, how does the rest of the world look to you from up there on your high horse?
You should save this sort of moralising drivel for Facebook, where I'm sure you'd get plenty of 'likes' to give you that warm fuzzy feeling.
Looks far better than I suspect it does in the Tory gutter. Treating people with basic decency and humanity used to be a key Tory principle as well. Its not me that found false morals, its the Conservative Party that lost them.
I'm totally sick and tired of people like you impugning upon my morals, ethics and basic human decency just because we happen to support a different polirival party. Attitudes like yours explain why there are just so many shy Tories.
There is nothing unhuman about ensuring the nation is solvent, the economy strong, and the overall level of wealth in the nation growing.
In fact, that's the only way the additional investment in public services you crave can be sustainably achieved. Anything else is hogwash.
You will lose on Thursday, and deservedly so, for daring to take Britain back to the stone ages and insulting the integrity of almost half its electorate who, thankfully, have far more common sense than you do.
You've had 7 years and the Tory manifesto promises 5 more years of cuts.
When exactly is the additional investment of which you speak going to become manifest?
Labour spent it all.
We are growing into their levels of spending
that secret money tree went to the banks and now all the rich people have shares in the banks after osborne gave them a discount.
The people who bought shares in banks at a discount (you are meaning Lloyds, I assume) weren't "all the rich people". There wasn't a retail offering (which annoyed @Pulpstar). Instead shares were sold to pension funds - the likes of you and me. And the discounts were wafer thin. And the investment banks didn't take a underwriting fee.
Theresa May is in Wrexham at the moment. All Lab seats outside London with less than 8k majority (and a ukip vote) seem to be in play judging by the on the ground campaigning. There is no panic from the Tories, no throwing the kitchen sink and betting market reflects this.
Other than the 'worst' polls is there any strong evidence for a hung parliament or the Tory seat share going backwards?
Boris doing a big speech on Brexit now does not look good.
Theresa May has tried to win this on her own, and now realises she can't. I hope and pray it's not too late.
But as the SNP still won almost every seat in Scotland and 50% of the vote, compared with 45% in indyref - wouldn't that would suggest that it was NO voters, i.e the victorious side, that didn't bother voting as much in the following election? We could see a lot of EU ref brexiteers returning to non-voting status despite them saying they will vote this time.
Edit: I was commenting on a different tweet about Youth turnout in Scotland, I guess you since swapped it out for the LD one?
I hear the Tories are very confident about Westmoreland
Eh? This has been the Tories' message for the past fortnight. If he was announcing free owls that would indicate panic.
it's more that they are putting up Boris. He appeals (counterintuitivley) to working class labour voters. He is seen as straight talking in a Jeremy Clarkson kind of way.
Cutting spending is almost off the table now. None of the parties are talking about it, the public has had enough, and the upward pressures on pensions, health, social care and education are significant. Obviously there'll still be constraints on most departments, but total public spending is not going to go down.
They'll have a go at raising some more money next, depending on how constrained they are by their politics and promises.
The eventual 'solution' will be a sustained period of inflation above interest rates, on the basis that all of the alternative solutions to the debt crisis are more catastrophic.
Unfortunately we are still living far beyond our means and there is no prospect of us doing anything about it until it is too late. Things like making sure corporations pay their taxes properly are necessary but only in terms of removing the distraction and proving that the underlying problem cannot be solved that way. Raising taxes will not work long term because eventually you run into Maggie's old adage and run out of other people's money. In the meantime people get more and more wedded to the idea that the 'Government' will always provide all these services. It is simply fantasy and the sooner we face up to that the better.
Our political system (and arguably our economic and financial ones as well) doesn't point people towards the right long-term decisions, though. The upside of short-term decisions is always greater than of doing the right thing longer term.
True but you do eventually reach a point where this is no longer sustainable.
At the moment the politicians have been dumb and allowed the reality of this to be deflected by valid arguments about corporate pay and taxes, loopholes and avoidance. They have allowed a myth to develop that if only everyone paid what they were supposed to under the current arrangements then we would be able to fund the welfare state, the NHS and everything else they demand.
This is why we need to deal with those things and close all the loopholes, force the companies to pay tax in the UK and make sure everyone pays what they are supposed to - not because it will provide all the money we need, but because it will burn away that last fig leaf that the left hide behind in their claims about what is possible I terms of state provision.
Theresa May is in Wrexham at the moment. All Lab seats outside London with less than 8k majority (and a ukip vote) seem to be in play judging by the on the ground campaigning. There is no panic from the Tories, no throwing the kitchen sink and betting market reflects this.
Other than the 'worst' polls is there any strong evidence for a hung parliament or the Tory seat share going backwards?
how will You Gov excuse themselves on Friday if its a Tory Landslide? surely their reputation will be in tatters?
That is very true. Don't want to sound disrespectful but I've heard foodbanks being discussed way more amongst my middle than working class friends. What Labour thinks people want to hear and what people actually want to hear are two very different things in my experience.
I've never understood the left's hatred of food banks. Surely looking after those in society who have very little should be exactly what they support?
We don't hate foodbanks. We are in favour of a decent standard of living for everybody, and we believe that the spread of voluntary-sector foodbanks assisted by churches and Tesco's public relations department points up the absence of a proper state welfare safety net, and that it also expresses Britain's fairly obvious trend towards becoming a third-world country, in which the filthy rich get even richer and loot everything that's not nailed down. It is a terrible indictment of policymakers in this country that so many must rely on foodbanks. We struggle to end these conditions. While they prevail, we strongly support foodbanks.
Have just come back from Vancouver and they have a dreadful homeless and foodbank problem rooted in drug abuse.
This is a problem throughout the West and unless drug abuse is resolved it will continue unabated forever
Food banks were started in this country under a Labour Governement in 2002. There will always be a need for food banks for people who fall between other provision, or whose have significant social problems. If you are addicted to drink, drugs or gambling then you will always need help, if you hit sudden serious financial problems, it is impossible for social services / welfare etc to immediately step in. They are not a sign of being third world, they are a sign that local communities want to support those within their community who are in a time of difficulty. It reflects well on the British people that they have proliferated so quickly as people identified both a need and volunteered and supported those addressing it
Remarkable Osbo spin on an interview where Boris refused to say anything about Tory policy or plans and answered every question with "Corbyn would be dangerous", six times in all!
It's a comedy listen on iPlayer; Boris gets the hump when the interviewer tries to tell him to stop talking about Corbyn, then continued to mention him twice more...
Eh? This has been the Tories' message for the past fortnight. If he was announcing free owls that would indicate panic.
it's more that they are putting up Boris. He appeals (counterintuitivley) to working class labour voters. He is seen as straight talking in a Jeremy Clarkson kind of way.
I'd be surprised if this was a last minute decision. I imagine it was in the grid from the campaign's start: bring out Boris in the closing stages - lots of people don't like him but lots do.
Theresa May is in Wrexham at the moment. All Lab seats outside London with less than 8k majority (and a ukip vote) seem to be in play judging by the on the ground campaigning. There is no panic from the Tories, no throwing the kitchen sink and betting market reflects this.
Other than the 'worst' polls is there any strong evidence for a hung parliament or the Tory seat share going backwards?
Boris doing a big speech on Brexit now does not look good.
Theresa May has tried to win this on her own, and now realises she can't. I hope and pray it's not too late.
Im sure the Tories all along wanted Brexit to be at the forefront of voters minds as they go to the polls and not surprised they are making these speeches. Wonder if it's a sign the terrorism narrative isn't doing them any favours.
If Farron loses, it will be excellent news for the LibDems. (Assuming that one of Brake, Lamb, or Swinson wins.) Of course, it could be that the young LibDem candidate for Edinburgh West or Fife NE ends up the LibDem leader.
That forecast by Marriott gives LibDem only 2 seats. Presumably one is Orkney.
One of the better ideas we need to conquer Islamism may be a more casual approach to sex. If these young men were getting more they'd have a channel for their spare energy and they might also come to a realisation that as pastimes go it's a bit overrated anyway.
Hmmm... I think I see what you are trying to get at, but I think enough blokes already have a sufficiently casual attitude to sex that I could do without adding another legion or two to the numbers.
Young men the world over are full of hormones, energy and stupid ideas. They need to burn off their frustrations and desires in a societally non-destructive way. Booze, sex, sport, violence of a non-human harming variety, hard work - all are needed. Islam deliberately restricts the booze and sex and is culturally down on hard work. This leaves only violence as the outlet for young Muslim men to blow off with. Islam deliberately directs the violence towards infidels. It's a culture almost perfectly designed to make young men do bad things. Even the non-radicalised would benefit hugely from getting royally pissed from time to time and getting their leg over.
There's a lot of - probably justified - talk about shy Tories, but might there not also be a few shy Labour voters? The (IMO reckless) Labour promise to cut tuition fees with immediate effect must surely be persuading a few normally Conservative-voting parents of university-age kids to secretly vote Labour out of self-interest.
@jessicaelgot: Johnson says Corbyn had "taken the side of every adversary we have had, from IRA to Hamas." And then almost compares them to EU...
@jessicaelgot: "Of course, I don't mean to compare them to our European friends..." Boris clarifies
Boris Johnson is a moron. Hamas has never been an adversary of Britain.
Hamas has always spoken out against British involvement in the area and would happily kill British citizens in Israel if they believed it would favour their course.
No, no, all you need to do is walk into a Hamas area and say "I'm a friend of Jeremy" all will be well then.
That is very true. Don't want to sound disrespectful but I've heard foodbanks being discussed way more amongst my middle than working class friends. What Labour thinks people want to hear and what people actually want to hear are two very different things in my experience.
I've never understood the left's hatred of food banks. Surely looking after those in society who have very little should be exactly what they support?
We don't hate foodbanks. We are in favour of a decent standard of living for everybody, and we believe that the spread of voluntary-sector foodbanks assisted by churches and Tesco's public relations department points up the absence of a proper state welfare safety net, and that it also expresses Britain's fairly obvious trend towards becoming a third-world country, in which the filthy rich get even richer and loot everything that's not nailed down. It is a terrible indictment of policymakers in this country that so many must rely on foodbanks. We struggle to end these conditions. While they prevail, we strongly support foodbanks.
Have just come back from Vancouver and they have a dreadful homeless and foodbank problem rooted in drug abuse.
This is a problem throughout the West and unless drug abuse is resolved it will continue unabated forever
Food banks were started in this country under a Labour Governement in 2002. There will always be a need for food banks for people who fall between other provision, or whose have significant social problems.
Not if social conditions can be improved to at least the pre-2002 level.
I think that's kind of endearing .... and actually believable given her background!
Naughtiest thing she ever done How about cutting police numbers and making us less safe.
Loving your variety and presence... please do stay beyond 10pm on Thursday.
I shall be hopping over to view the UKpolling message board at 10pm Thursday. There's some posters on there including 'DrMibbles' and many others who would have been banned after 1 post on here with their tribal arrogance and made up intel.
"See it through" seems a climbdown from "Strong and Stable". Expect our Brexit to be utterly crap but we will carry on regardless.
I have to say I have never been amenable to Boris Johnson's charms. Obviously many are. Without that charm, I just see him for the dickhead he really is. A bias, I guess.
"See it through" seems a climbdown from "Strong and Stable". Expect our Brexit to be utterly crap but we will carry on regardless.
The Brexit message reinforcement will probably only serve to alienate London even more but the Tories are gunning for the north and midlands, it seems.
If Farron loses, it will be excellent news for the LibDems. (Assuming that one of Brake, Lamb, or Swinson wins.) Of course, it could be that the young LibDem candidate for Edinburgh West or Fife NE ends up the LibDem leader.
It may be ungallant of me, but not sure Christine Jardine could be described as the young LibDem candidate.
Whats the naughtiest thing you've ever done -When I was 12, we use to play football on the local green. About 20 kids use to play 2-3times a week. One of the grannies, protested about the noise during the weekend afternoons, she contacted the council and got a no ball games sign put up on the door.
I put a brick through her window wrapped around in a piece of paper - We have no where to play because of you.
I got into serious trouble with my parents and the police but I refused to apologize. Got told that it was the wrong way to protest. She ruined the whole area all the kids ended up staying in doors.
I would prefer May govt to Corbyn all day long, but I don't think Tories quite understand how difficult it is for someone who has voted Labour all their life to vote Conservative. I was chatting w the lady in the betting shop while backing UKIP to win Dagenham yesterday, and she (and her man who was there) had always voted Lab, cant have Corbyn at all, but just cant bring herself to vote Tory. My parents are the same, as am I to a certain extent. Small sample obviously, but I think this leads to low turnout Lab/Tory marginals.. Many Lab just wont vote, tacitly hoping for a Con win
Yep - I agree. Corbyn is a massive liability, but actively voting Tory is a step too far for many.
Why?
It's just a party.
Primarily because the Tories are led by a very poor Prime Minister who has assembled a team of non-entities and incompetents.
More philosophically, the track record of Tory governments is not great if you are sitting in a Labour heartland seat. The Tories have been in control for most of the last 50 years and overall have delivered very little. Because of FPTP, their focus is on where they have the best chance of winning (as is Labour's, of course).
The truth is never as it seems... the "biggest cuts" came about in the most deprived councils because labour repeatedly manipulated the local government settlement grant with allowances that inflated significantly the amount of money going to some (usually theirs) councils. Much of these were removed with the reductions.
So they only did disproportionately worse because the system had been gamed to make them disproportionately better off.
Remarkable Osbo spin on an interview where Boris refused to say anything about Tory policy or plans and answered every question with "Corbyn would be dangerous", six times in all!
It's a comedy listen on iPlayer; Boris gets the hump when the interviewer tries to tell him to stop talking about Corbyn, then continued to mention him twice more...
Osborne. A poster child for accepting redundancy with dignity.
Re Facebook, I had an ad from Labour, with an arts administrator backing their candidate. I recognised the man's name, from quite a while ago when I was living in London. I doubt it was clever targeting, more one of those very odd coincidences.
The other ad from Labour, I've seen was for a candidate in the neighbouring seat. So far I haven't seen any Tory Facebook Ads or leaflets.
"See it through" seems a climbdown from "Strong and Stable". Expect our Brexit to be utterly crap but we will carry on regardless.
I have to say I have never been amenable to Boris Johnson's charms. Obviously many are. Without that charm, I just see him for the dickhead he really is. A bias, I guess.
A lot of other cabinet ministers may be out of their depth, but Boris is an active impediment to UK interests. If there is one move May should make asap after the election is to get him out of the foreign office.
If Farron loses, it will be excellent news for the LibDems. (Assuming that one of Brake, Lamb, or Swinson wins.) Of course, it could be that the young LibDem candidate for Edinburgh West or Fife NE ends up the LibDem leader.
That forecast by Marriott gives LibDem only 2 seats. Presumably one is Orkney.
It seems pretty obvious from Farron's comments and rather strange demeanour throughout this campaign that he knows he is a goner
"See it through" seems a climbdown from "Strong and Stable". Expect our Brexit to be utterly crap but we will carry on regardless.
The Brexit message reinforcement will probably only serve to alienate London even more but the Tories are gunning for the north and midlands, it seems.
It is more like a dog whistle, an extremely unsophisticated one at that. Leave voters are much more fired up about Brexit where as Remain seem to be pretty much fatalistic about it happening. The Lib Dems would be doing much better if Remain voters were not resigned to the path the country has chosen, I voted Remain just for the record.
Thats a defence Alice. Their lives don't matter to you. And thats fine - we have a different set of values.
Because the treatment of people in this degrading manner is nothing to do with economics. We can afford basic human dignity. Its that this government chooses not to.
Its not even Conservative values. Yes Thatcher went to war with unionised heavy industry. But her government then invested heavily in redevelopment and chunky redundancy packages and maintained a high and guaranteed level of welfare to the out of work and sick and disabled. What this government does is an abomination to Tory values as well as mine.
Their lives don't matter to you either, RP. If they did, you wouldn't tolerate Mid-Staffs Dickensian workhouses, and you wouldn't try to shuffle the blame for Iraq off your party and onto bystanders. You'd own them both, you'd condemn them both and you'd want hospital administrators, Labour health secretaries and a Labour prime minister facing charges of corporate manslaughter. You'd demand that they run the same personal risk of imprisonment as a manager of a rail track, or a financial compliance officer, for example.
Unless, that is, you are ex parte a Labour supporter, and all these supposed moral poses that you strike are actually ex post facto rationalisations for views you already held, adduced spuriously to excuse motives you don't like to admit to because you recognise to be wholly base.
Am I right?
If she thinks like I do, like a lot of women do, you didn't persuade your female colleague either and she's still voting Conservative.
"See it through" seems a climbdown from "Strong and Stable". Expect our Brexit to be utterly crap but we will carry on regardless.
I have to say I have never been amenable to Boris Johnson's charms. Obviously many are. Without that charm, I just see him for the dickhead he really is. A bias, I guess.
"See it through" seems a climbdown from "Strong and Stable". Expect our Brexit to be utterly crap but we will carry on regardless.
I have to say I have never been amenable to Boris Johnson's charms. Obviously many are. Without that charm, I just see him for the dickhead he really is. A bias, I guess.
Having him as prime minister would be a disaster. There have been competent and incompetent prime ministers, but I don't recall any who have been moronic, shoot-from-the-mouth, dickheaded lying thugs, in love with themselves like Johnson.
One has to wonder what on earth a man of his ilk is doing in such a position.
That is very true. Don't want to sound disrespectful but I've heard foodbanks being discussed way more amongst my middle than working class friends. What Labour thinks people want to hear and what people actually want to hear are two very different things in my experience.
I've never understood the left's hatred of food banks. Surely looking after those in society who have very little should be exactly what they support?
We don't hate foodbanks. We are in favour of a decent standard of living for everybody, and we believe that the spread of voluntary-sector foodbanks assisted by churches and Tesco's public relations department points up the absence of a proper state welfare safety net, and that it also expresses Britain's fairly obvious trend towards becoming a third-world country, in which the filthy rich get even richer and loot everything that's not nailed down. It is a terrible indictment of policymakers in this country that so many must rely on foodbanks. We struggle to end these conditions. While they prevail, we strongly support foodbanks.
Have just come back from Vancouver and they have a dreadful homeless and foodbank problem rooted in drug abuse.
This is a problem throughout the West and unless drug abuse is resolved it will continue unabated forever
Food banks were started in this country under a Labour Governement in 2002. There will always be a need for food banks for people who fall between other provision, or whose have significant social problems.
Not if social conditions can be improved to at least the pre-2002 level.
I was a regular contributor to foodbanks until I heard on Twitter how evil they are. I'm not going to feed this evil any more. Enough is enough!
Theresa May is in Wrexham at the moment. All Lab seats outside London with less than 8k majority (and a ukip vote) seem to be in play judging by the on the ground campaigning. There is no panic from the Tories, no throwing the kitchen sink and betting market reflects this.
Other than the 'worst' polls is there any strong evidence for a hung parliament or the Tory seat share going backwards?
how will You Gov excuse themselves on Friday if its a Tory Landslide? surely their reputation will be in tatters?
There is some evidence of differential swing. The *overall* polling average of about 43-35 seems about right. In London and the South a slight swing to Labour, while in the Midlands and North a significant swing to the Tories, enabling a majority of around 80.
As far as Yougov are concerned, you're right - they've trapped themselves in their methodology yet again. There really is no point having such a huge panel, and quizzing 50,000 of them every few days if you're not prepared to amend your methodology along the way if you have evidence of bias in the sample. If they can't get such a basic thing right then they're trashing their business.
That is very true. Don't want to sound disrespectful but I've heard foodbanks being discussed way more amongst my middle than working class friends. What Labour thinks people want to hear and what people actually want to hear are two very different things in my experience.
I've never understood the left's hatred of food banks. Surely looking after those in society who have very little should be exactly what they support?
We don't hate foodbanks. We are in favour of a decent standard of living for everybody, and we believe that the spread of voluntary-sector foodbanks assisted by churches and Tesco's public relations department points up the absence of a proper state welfare safety net, and that it also expresses Britain's fairly obvious trend towards becoming a third-world country, in which the filthy rich get even richer and loot everything that's not nailed down. It is a terrible indictment of policymakers in this country that so many must rely on foodbanks. We struggle to end these conditions. While they prevail, we strongly support foodbanks.
Have just come back from Vancouver and they have a dreadful homeless and foodbank problem rooted in drug abuse.
This is a problem throughout the West and unless drug abuse is resolved it will continue unabated forever
It is even worse in Seattle and San Francisco. Parts of Downtown Seattle at night is really quite scary as hoards of people looking like the living dead are everywhere.
I think the London attack is going to be a net negative for the tories, the issues around MI5 and police inaction will, fairly or unfairly, be seen as a governance problem. May has been PM or Home Sec since 2010 and the buck stops with her for these issues in the eyes of the public. I think the Enough is Enough narrative will fail to catch on as it is replaced by anger at why we didn't stop these people before. It won't have a big effect, but it will perhaps stop any consolidation of the security vote for May. People won't be humming the 'enough is enough' line as they go into polling booths.
Standing by my prediction of Tory majority of 50-80, but don't see a new landslide likely, as some on here have since predicted.
Yes, that's exactly how I feel, Paris.
I'm a born and bred Londoner, and have lived here most of my life. It is a tolerant and welcoming City but when moved Londoners are a force of nature. There's a sense of anger and outrage that my normally phlegmatic city dwellers rarely display, and I just do not see it playing to the PM's advantage. The locals are not a wildly political bunch but the fact she was Home Secretary for six years will not have gone unnoticed.
Personally I will be surprised if London does not trend Labour, even against the national trend.
I think London will be a big labour win
There is a big swell of support for Labour in London and they'll take Croydon Central. But do you think they may take seats such as Hendon, Harrow East, Enfield Southgate? The next one after that is Finchley & Golders Green - very unlikely.
I am really at the point that I have no idea
Mike Freer will get back with a bigger majority.
Labour are fielding a Jewish candidate, but they did that last time in F & GG and it didn't work then. She isn't standing this time and one wonders if that's because the feedback was bad enough then and has got worse since? The JC says 77% of Jews are backing the Conservatives versus 13% for Labour.
If Farron loses, it will be excellent news for the LibDems. (Assuming that one of Brake, Lamb, or Swinson wins.) Of course, it could be that the young LibDem candidate for Edinburgh West or Fife NE ends up the LibDem leader.
That forecast by Marriott gives LibDem only 2 seats. Presumably one is Orkney.
It seems pretty obvious from Farron's comments and rather strange demeanour throughout this campaign that he knows he is a goner
Hard to see it, given it's a remain voting seat, he should get a bonus from being party leader and he holds an 11k majority with no UKIP vote to squeeze. I think his local following will see him home.
His comments probably reflect the disappointing National picture for the lib dems and clinging on to his job.
Comments
In my case its more feeling your family would be disappointed in you. That's what my Dad says he cant vote Tory, as his Dad would be so disappointed in him.
Mind you, his brother, my uncle, is a member of the Con Club!
Tory seats down one to 304, Labour seats down two to 266, vote share still 42%/38%. LDs down one to 12. SNP up to 46, PC 2, Green 1, and still the Indy in East Devon.
@DAaronovitch: @gabyhinsliff @GroomB I suppose the question is if she were a middle aged white man would you feel the same? Or would she get away with it?
@gabyhinsliff: @DAaronovitch @GroomB as I was just saying to someone else, it mainly reminds me of IDS at the end. Also not up to it. But things just got weirdly cruel. So; no.
@DAaronovitch: @gabyhinsliff @GroomB Good point. We slaughtered IDS. It was gruesome and I couldn’t watch that Murnaghan thing to the end it was so embarrassing.
Personally, I won’t go in the place!
LD 44% (+1)
Con. 33% (+1)
Lab. 20% (-2)
Gr. 3% (-0)
The only state established by terrorists (fighting against Britain as it happens) in that region is Israel.
I was re-reading Anthony Burgess' Earthly Powers recently and in it a loony Jim-Jones-type cult preacher tells his congregation that if they take a suicide pill, they will wake up in heaven an instant later. That put it very well for me. I think that is how they see it.
It is then clear why the 9/11 hijackers spent their last few weeks buying prostituted women and boozing. If you're about to do something that's sure to get you into heaven, you can blacken the slate as much as you like. All that sex and booze they've been itching to try, they can try it now.
One of the better ideas we need to conquer Islamism may be a more casual approach to sex. If these young men were getting more they'd have a channel for their spare energy and they might also come to a realisation that as pastimes go it's a bit overrated anyway.
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/872038440203935744
So, on that basis I have just taken the trouble to actually look at the adverts and there is a Tory one urging me to vote Tory for the best Brexit deal (great focusing there.... not!). Having said that, an ad for "Vets for Pets" is higher up the list and my cat has been dead 6 years.
FB is no more accurate than the pollsters
He has gone from they are all the same I am not voting to Lab since my visit 2 weeks ago,
I suspect bad weather would stop him though as he isnt really safe
Momentum "Hello Grandpa, it's Zander Britney Tarquin"
G "Oh hello, the one with Purple hair and metal in your face? I thought you were on a Gap Yah in Tibet".
M "That's the one. Who will you be voting for in the election".
G "May I suppose"
M "But you can't grandpa, the Tories are evil"
G "As opposed to the Garden Gnome that likes terrorists and people who aren't British?"
M "But you don't understand. He's going to transform the economy..."
G "Transform my bloody wallet more like. Didn't you drop economics in your community college and concentrate on putting Solar Panels on Yurts or something?"
M "How can you be so Uncaring, there's starving Nurses in food banks and the poor don't have access to Interpretive dance"
G "Probably the IRA shooting at me on the Falls Road might have something to do with it. Now listen son"...
M "Son, that's an outdated Gender Stereotype that doesn't recognise the emotional gender fluidity of today's modern caring generation"
G "Huh? You been playing American Football without a helmet again?"
M "You just don't care, it's like Brexit all over again, you're destroying my future"
G "Protecting your future more like, rather than inviting the first 80 Pages of the Bucharest phone directory in every day to compete against you. Speaking of which, how's the job hunt going".
M "I'm finding that people are scared of my ideas in job interviews when I tell them how they need to run their business. Also they're not paying enough to recognise my talents"
G "Right oh, Must dash, your Grandma says hello"
M "Oh, You just don't understand. You're being so unfair, I hate you"
G "Love you too son. Bye then".
https://capx.co/britains-economically-illiterate-election/
Other than the 'worst' polls is there any strong evidence for a hung parliament or the Tory seat share going backwards?
But apart from that do carry on.
Theresa May has tried to win this on her own, and now realises she can't. I hope and pray it's not too late.
"These switchers represent a new generation of shy Tories, located deep inside Labour’s core vote."
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2017/06/05/polls-labours-surging-non-london-doorstep-its-a-nuclear-winter-for-labour-somethings-got-to-give/
Btw, thank you for doing this, it is very helpful to us punters. You know you are bang in line with the legendary Nate Silver? Great minds, eh?
Interesting supplemental about drone strikes and if I'd give the order.
It's a comedy listen on iPlayer; Boris gets the hump when the interviewer tries to tell him to stop talking about Corbyn, then continued to mention him twice more...
How about cutting police numbers and making us less safe.
Even the non-radicalised would benefit hugely from getting royally pissed from time to time and getting their leg over.
Presumably he's been hoiked out of hiding to counteract Diane Abbot.
There is no chance of Lab making Net Gains from the Tories
-When I was 12, we use to play football on the local green. About 20 kids use to play 2-3times a week. One of the grannies, protested about the noise during the weekend afternoons, she contacted the council and got a no ball games sign put up on the door.
I put a brick through her window wrapped around in a piece of paper - We have no where to play because of you.
I got into serious trouble with my parents and the police but I refused to apologize. Got told that it was the wrong way to protest. She ruined the whole area all the kids ended up staying in doors.
So they only did disproportionately worse because the system had been gamed to make them disproportionately better off.
The other ad from Labour, I've seen was for a candidate in the neighbouring seat. So far I haven't seen any Tory Facebook Ads or leaflets.
It'll vote Labour but on a crap comparitive turnout to the rest of NED. Dronfield will win it for Rowley I think.
Unless, that is, you are ex parte a Labour supporter, and all these supposed moral poses that you strike are actually ex post facto rationalisations for views you already held, adduced spuriously to excuse motives you don't like to admit to because you recognise to be wholly base.
Am I right?
If she thinks like I do, like a lot of women do, you didn't persuade your female colleague either and she's still voting Conservative.
One has to wonder what on earth a man of his ilk is doing in such a position.
Five out of the first eight posts are videos taking the piss out of Diane Abbott, two are about the terror attacks and the other is about the weather
One of the posts was this (I got it off twitter)
Cant be today as its pissing down
https://twitter.com/UKlPVoter/status/872037657790042114
As far as Yougov are concerned, you're right - they've trapped themselves in their methodology yet again. There really is no point having such a huge panel, and quizzing 50,000 of them every few days if you're not prepared to amend your methodology along the way if you have evidence of bias in the sample. If they can't get such a basic thing right then they're trashing their business.
As, using the 2015 result,
a) I cant see many (if any) direct Plaid>Tory switchers, so 2800 Plaid->Lab leaves both parties on 12,340 votes.
b) Cons+Ukip (4300) = 12,700 but neil hamilton is standing for UKip so he should get at least 500 votes.
c) There is also no green candidate in 2017 - polled 1000 votes in 2015 - most of these should be added to the lab candidate i reckon.
I can see Cons coming 2nd, (if Plaid voters stay loyal), but I can't see them winning.
Labour are fielding a Jewish candidate, but they did that last time in F & GG and it didn't work then. She isn't standing this time and one wonders if that's because the feedback was bad enough then and has got worse since? The JC says 77% of Jews are backing the Conservatives versus 13% for Labour.
His comments probably reflect the disappointing National picture for the lib dems and clinging on to his job.