I think the evidence on the ground is stacking up for a TMICIPM big maj approaching landslide.
The Manchester Evening News report.
The Lab Uncut one
My own in NE Derbyshire.
Could well be bed at 22.05 on Thursday for me.
I do find the reports on the ground, including in my own patch, impossible to reconcile with the (most of) the polls. Of the two constituencies I oversee, Theresa May has been to Hemsworth twice and Wakefield not at all (though that said, the main manifesto launch would have been in Wakefield had we been able to source an appropriate venue at short notice). Even so, to visit somewhere like Hemsworth twice (and that would have been three times had we been able to arrange details for another visit), is completely inconsistent with a picture of a national net swing to Labour.
Quite what is going on, the gods only know. I assume that they're laughing.
Does the mismatch feel the same as other elections or is this something new?
No, the mismatch is far worse than any previous election I've been involved in, which goes back to 1992. There may be local effects in my own experiences but the reports seem to be fairly consistent across large parts of the country.
In his seminal book, The Righteous Mind, social psychologist Jonathan Haidt showed that political convictions are, in large part, a rationalization of personality traits. He demonstrated that, while rightists had no difficulty grasping leftists’ motivations — a desire, above all, to stand up for the underdog — the reverse was not true. Many leftists simply could not understand motivations such as patriotism, religion or reciprocity. Their reasoning therefore went something like this: “I’m a nice person. I care about poor people and minorities and fluffy animals. You are on the opposite side. Therefore you think the opposite of me. Therefore you hate poor people and minorities and fluffy animals.”
There are arguments for voting Labour, but lectures about morality from the party that invaded Iraq then wrecked the economy aren't foremost among them, it must be said.
Thing is Alice those things don't wash either - except for with Tory flag wavers. Iraq was stupid. And was wholeheartedly supported by the Tories. Which is why it wasn't an electoral issue even in 2005. And the wrecked economy - feels pretty wrecked to millions of people out there who work hard and can't pay their bills. And ramping up debt by 70% at the same time as grinding austerity tells you all you need to know about Tory economics.
Quick question. The various examples of terminal cancer patients being "cured" and dying in penury. The terminally ill patients who posthumously overturn their "fit for work" judgements. The disabled being left to sit in their own filth having had their motability car and wheelchair and home help taken away. You alright with that? I clearly disagree with you on economics, but as a basic issue of humanity I want to hear you either defend it or decry it.
Please, RP. Please get out there and 'convert' as many Tory voters as you can.
My instinct tells me that Theresa is not going to get an increased majority and that we are entering a period of very unstable Government. I am pleased that my Canadian trip was last month when I received a good exchange rate (1.75) as I expect that on Friday there will be a blood bath on the markets.
The irony is that Theresa is by far the best for dealing with this security crisis as labour would just not be able to take the hard decisions needed.
Still we are where we are and it looks increasingly likely to me that we are heading for a soft Brexit
Soft Brexit = firmer £, does it not?
Soft Brexit means a lot of positives in the economy but will fire up UKIP.
Also if Corbyn gets any way near having an influence over Brexit I want as close a relationship as possible with the EU to prevent his extremes on re nationalisation
Reminds me of certain people in my office during the EU ref...
I've just had a chat with a member of our team in the office. She was intending to vote Tory because of Brexit - having seen nothing of the campaign. Two minutes on the other things that bother her about society and she's now going to stay at home.
Morality works. People can see right and wrong when you point it out to them, because in their gut they know that much of what this government has been doing to the sick and disabled is wrong at a basic level.
Bet you she is still going to vote Tory.
My thought entirely. What are a polite and non-confrontational nation we are.
Her starting position was not voting at all this time. A few of us said everyone should vote. Then she said how she normally votes....
So she said she wasn't voting - and her regular choice you describe as immoral and wrong at a basic level.
I think it is wrong and morally bankrupt to support labour who have no credible plan to pay for all the goodies they are trying to bribe voters with. Why else try and bung 11 billion to middle classes through student fees. At least the libdems have a credible costing for limited ambitions, shame they won't get to govern.
I don't know why this sort of thing isn't reported more prominently in the UK press:
More than 130 imams refuse to perform Islamic burials for Manchester and London attackers
"We will not perform the traditional Islamic funeral prayer for the perpetrators and we also urge fellow imams and religious authorities to withdraw such a privilege. This is because such indefensible actions are completely at odds with the lofty teachings of Islam"
Because it would make it harder for Daily Mailers to say 'the community should be doing more', based on their ignorance of what Muslim communities actually do in response to these nutjobs?
What, because the whole of the UK press is at all times 100% behind the Daily Mail's agenda and goes out of its way to give the Mail a clear run? Numpty.
The Sun and the Daily Mail being by far the highest circulation print media? You do find such stories in the likes of the Guardian and the Indy, but who notices? Pretty pathetic to try and start a barney on here, numpty.
So, the fact of "The Sun and the Daily Mail being by far the highest circulation print media" ineluctably dictates what the Guardian, the Independent and the BBC (for instance) report and don't report? Could you explain in detail how that comes about?
Original questioner asked 'why it isn't reported more prominently in the UK press'. The answer is probably because it would undermine a well-selling stance of the two highest circulation newspapers in the country, where the lack of such stories has an impact. There are lots of people whose response to these events is 'well what are the Muslim community doing about it!?' without having any idea what those communities do and no interest in finding out, it pays to reinforce that standpoint rather than challenge it if you are the Sun or the Daily Mail. You need to join Diane and have a lie down.
I agree that this should be more widely reported as I see it as a very positive move. I do wonder about the impact though. Don't these suicide bombers have some sort of dispensation and a free ticket to heaven blessed by some sort of religious representative? If there message was communicated day in day out in mosques that if you do this you'll spend eternity in hell it may have a better impact long term.
I would prefer May govt to Corbyn all day long, but I don't think Tories quite understand how difficult it is for someone who has voted Labour all their life to vote Conservative. I was chatting w the lady in the betting shop while backing UKIP to win Dagenham yesterday, and she (and her man who was there) had always voted Lab, cant have Corbyn at all, but just cant bring herself to vote Tory. My parents are the same, as am I to a certain extent. Small sample obviously, but I think this leads to low turnout Lab/Tory marginals.. Many Lab just wont vote, tacitly hoping for a Con win
Morning all. Feeling energised now we are in the closing straight despite summer flu striking me and my beloved hard! Betting wise I've sat out of the seat markets as I think it's either going to be HP or landslide and can't work out which way to jump! The bets I have are small bets (have agreed with the partner I won't beat on seat totals and wont stake more than £20 this time as I've been losing money like water lately) I have a quid on UKIP at 10s in south thanet Two quid on Labour in Norwich North at 12s Small bets on Tories in Moray, Argyll and Bute, Ayr Carrick and Cumnock and Banff and Buchan SNP in Edinburgh South Tories in Sheffield Hallam and Westmorland and Lonsdale Covered a few scenarios to give some interest on the night outside the result itself. I've got a fiver left to bet - will bet five long shots at a quid each. Any tips welcome! Individual seats only.
Dyed...if I were you I'd nip down the Alexandra and spend that fiver on a nice ale and a pack of cheese and onion crisps...you only live once right...
I'm a lager drinker Tyson my mucker. Pint of Carling for me in that fine establishment. Used to enjoy Coors Light in the BV but they've inexplicably discontinued it leaving only rancid Amstel for session drinking. Nonetheless the pony is written off, and some of my bets will come in
Not Edinburgh South....
But if you want to recover your losses put £1.25 on East Lothian to go Labour.
As I said yesterday my understanding is that the Labour internal polling /canvass returns are very bad for them . If you read the Labour Uncut article it highlights that the gap between them and the Tories as evidenced by canvass returns is much worse than 2015- I believe this to be on average by about 5-10 per cent worse outside London.The MEN article is supporting this sort of analysis of a swing to the Tories of this approximate magnitude in greater Manchester though I believe it is more in the W midlands and North east . I also understand that they had earlier in the campaign been pouring resources into Watson and Cooper's seats to stop a decapitation. I presume they are more relaxed now as the swing seems to have settled down.
@christopherhope: BREAKING Diane Abbott pulls out of @BBCRadio4 Woman's Hour this morning. Labour has told the BBC she is "unwell".
Of course she's unwell, she was involved in a big car crash only 12 hours ago.
Is that the same illness she had during the artcle 50 vote?
Migraine (verb) - to wimp out on tough decisions in the HOC and TV studios…
I'm fairly sure she is actually unwell.
I think she has to be in some form or other. Because there is incompetence which amuses (!) us all, or something else and this is beyond incompetence.
That said, Jezza did it also, so perhaps they really are just winging it and don't really care how or why they get where they're going (lose, HP, win) as they are having the time of their life and never expected to be there.
Dear Morris Dancer old friend and colleague, if I point out that I realised some time ago that North Cadboll is in fact the outside edge of the County of Cromartyshire and not in Easter Ross, does that tell you who I am?
Mr. NorthWales, I disagree. Con to increase votes and seats. Not to staggering proportions, but a sort of 2005 (maybe slightly better) Lab victory level.
The blues have a massive lead with the elderly, who vote. The reds have a massive lead with the young, who do not. And are fewer in number.
I don't know why this sort of thing isn't reported more prominently in the UK press:
More than 130 imams refuse to perform Islamic burials for Manchester and London attackers
"We will not perform the traditional Islamic funeral prayer for the perpetrators and we also urge fellow imams and religious authorities to withdraw such a privilege. This is because such indefensible actions are completely at odds with the lofty teachings of Islam"
Because it would make it harder for Daily Mailers to say 'the community should be doing more', based on their ignorance of what Muslim communities actually do in response to these nutjobs?
What, because the whole of the UK press is at all times 100% behind the Daily Mail's agenda and goes out of its way to give the Mail a clear run? Numpty.
The Sun and the Daily Mail being by far the highest circulation print media? You do find such stories in the likes of the Guardian and the Indy, but who notices? Pretty pathetic to try and start a barney on here, numpty.
So, the fact of "The Sun and the Daily Mail being by far the highest circulation print media" ineluctably dictates what the Guardian, the Independent and the BBC (for instance) report and don't report? Could you explain in detail how that comes about?
Original questioner asked 'why it isn't reported more prominently in the UK press'. The answer is probably because it would undermine a well-selling stance of the two highest circulation newspapers in the country, where the lack of such stories has an impact. There are lots of people whose response to these events is 'well what are the Muslim community doing about it!?' without having any idea what those communities do and no interest in finding out, it pays to reinforce that standpoint rather than challenge it if you are the Sun or the Daily Mail. You need to join Diane and have a lie down.
You are doing it again. The UK press in general, you say, is holding back from reporting an important story because running it "would undermine a well-selling stance of the two highest circulation newspapers in the country". Why are the editors of the Guardian/Indy/NS so reluctant to undermine the sales of the Mail and the Sun?
Morning all. Feeling energised now we are in the closing straight despite summer flu striking me and my beloved hard! Betting wise I've sat out of the seat markets as I think it's either going to be HP or landslide and can't work out which way to jump! The bets I have are small bets (have agreed with the partner I won't beat on seat totals and wont stake more than £20 this time as I've been losing money like water lately) I have a quid on UKIP at 10s in south thanet Two quid on Labour in Norwich North at 12s Small bets on Tories in Moray, Argyll and Bute, Ayr Carrick and Cumnock and Banff and Buchan SNP in Edinburgh South Tories in Sheffield Hallam and Westmorland and Lonsdale Covered a few scenarios to give some interest on the night outside the result itself. I've got a fiver left to bet - will bet five long shots at a quid each. Any tips welcome! Individual seats only.
Dyed...if I were you I'd nip down the Alexandra and spend that fiver on a nice ale and a pack of cheese and onion crisps...you only live once right...
I'm a lager drinker Tyson my mucker. Pint of Carling for me in that fine establishment. Used to enjoy Coors Light in the BV but they've inexplicably discontinued it leaving only rancid Amstel for session drinking. Nonetheless the pony is written off, and some of my bets will come in
Not Edinburgh South....
But if you want to recover your losses put £1.25 on East Lothian to go Labour.
I've taken on Roberts bet as it goes, and I ought to be a good little punter and stick to my limit so I don't get it in the neck. Re East Lothian my feeling is the tactical unionist vote will get confused and the SNP will hang on although I'd back Labour to beat the Tories for second
Cutting spending is almost off the table now. None of the parties are talking about it, the public has had enough, and the upward pressures on pensions, health, social care and education are significant. Obviously there'll still be constraints on most departments, but total public spending is not going to go down.
They'll have a go at raising some more money next, depending on how constrained they are by their politics and promises.
The eventual 'solution' will be a sustained period of inflation above interest rates, on the basis that all of the alternative solutions to the debt crisis are more catastrophic.
Unfortunately we are still living far beyond our means and there is no prospect of us doing anything about it until it is too late. Things like making sure corporations pay their taxes properly are necessary but only in terms of removing the distraction and proving that the underlying problem cannot be solved that way. Raising taxes will not work long term because eventually you run into Maggie's old adage and run out of other people's money. In the meantime people get more and more wedded to the idea that the 'Government' will always provide all these services. It is simply fantasy and the sooner we face up to that the better.
Our political system (and arguably our economic and financial ones as well) doesn't point people towards the right long-term decisions, though. The upside of short-term decisions is always greater than of doing the right thing longer term.
True but you do eventually reach a point where this is no longer sustainable.
At the moment the politicians have been dumb and allowed the reality of this to be deflected by valid arguments about corporate pay and taxes, loopholes and avoidance. They have allowed a myth to develop that if only everyone paid what they were supposed to under the current arrangements then we would be able to fund the welfare state, the NHS and everything else they demand.
This is why we need to deal with those things and close all the loopholes, force the companies to pay tax in the UK and make sure everyone pays what they are supposed to - not because it will provide all the money we need, but because it will burn away that last fig leaf that the left hide behind in their claims about what is possible I terms of state provision.
I think the evidence on the ground is stacking up for a TMICIPM big maj approaching landslide.
The Manchester Evening News report.
The Lab Uncut one
My own in NE Derbyshire.
Could well be bed at 22.05 on Thursday for me.
I do find the reports on the ground, including in my own patch, impossible to reconcile with the (most of) the polls. Of the two constituencies I oversee, Theresa May has been to Hemsworth twice and Wakefield not at all (though that said, the main manifesto launch would have been in Wakefield had we been able to source an appropriate venue at short notice). Even so, to visit somewhere like Hemsworth twice (and that would have been three times had we been able to arrange details for another visit), is completely inconsistent with a picture of a national net swing to Labour.
Quite what is going on, the gods only know. I assume that they're laughing.
Yes, it's odd - and what's Corbyn been doing in the Midlands Tory marginals? I think a possible explanation is that the Tories are continuing to record genuine substantial progress in working-class North/Midlands seats (cf. BigJohn's and David's comments) and Scotland (cf. polls), while falling back in London (cf. polls and Timmo note), Wales (cf. polls), and the East Midlands (cf. numerous doorstep reports). So CCHQ is piling into the north and traditional Labour seats, while Labour is attacking in London (Croydon Central will fall if anywhere does), Wales and the E Mids.
But can UNS really be that wrong? (Scratches head) Genuinely don't know.
Incidentally, the police numbers thing seems to be really cutting through on the doorstep.
Dear Morris Dancer old friend and colleague, if I point out that I realised some time ago that North Cadboll is in fact the outside edge of the County of Cromartyshire and not in Easter Ross, does that tell you who I am?
Mr. NorthWales, I disagree. Con to increase votes and seats. Not to staggering proportions, but a sort of 2005 (maybe slightly better) Lab victory level.
The blues have a massive lead with the elderly, who vote. The reds have a massive lead with the young, who do not. And are fewer in number.
FWIW a few of us on the ground in Scotland have been predicting this shift since the Tory manifesto launch and the increasingly optimistic predictions of SCON gains by SCON and their MSM fanboys. The Corbyn surge has just added to this shift.
I'm feeling a little better about my SNP gain Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and, Tweeddale bet.
In his seminal book, The Righteous Mind, social psychologist Jonathan Haidt showed that political convictions are, in large part, a rationalization of personality traits. He demonstrated that, while rightists had no difficulty grasping leftists’ motivations — a desire, above all, to stand up for the underdog — the reverse was not true. Many leftists simply could not understand motivations such as patriotism, religion or reciprocity. Their reasoning therefore went something like this: “I’m a nice person. I care about poor people and minorities and fluffy animals. You are on the opposite side. Therefore you think the opposite of me. Therefore you hate poor people and minorities and fluffy animals.”
Political psychologists always find the results they want. E.g.:
You've had 7 years and the Tory manifesto promises 5 more years of cuts.
When exactly is the additional investment of which you speak going to become manifest?
Labour spent it all.
We are growing into their levels of spending
Labour never spent this much on so little. A 70% rise in the national debt under the Tories - £700bn. Spent on...?
Day to day spending, which will quite evidently increase undet labour. If you thought the Tory debt total was bad, just wait til Labours...
This just shows how little you understand how debt works. The last labour government set the trajectory of Government spending. Some would say that increased spending was an attempt to bribe the electorate ahead of 2010, others would say that Gordon Brown maliciously used this such a fuel duty escalator to impede his successor.
300bn of debt added in the first 2 years of Coalition government down to Labour's plans. As the Coalition managed down the deficit, a very difficult task, Labour opposed every cut so it's a little rich of them to criticise the total debt.
I would prefer May govt to Corbyn all day long, but I don't think Tories quite understand how difficult it is for someone who has voted Labour all their life to vote Conservative.
Quite, its fine to criticise Labour for targeting the youth vote who never turn up at the polling stations but May's tactic of trying to win the ex-Labour Northern WWC on the basis of Brexit and little else seems to me to have the same problem.
I would prefer May govt to Corbyn all day long, but I don't think Tories quite understand how difficult it is for someone who has voted Labour all their life to vote Conservative. I was chatting w the lady in the betting shop while backing UKIP to win Dagenham yesterday, and she (and her man who was there) had always voted Lab, cant have Corbyn at all, but just cant bring herself to vote Tory. My parents are the same, as am I to a certain extent. Small sample obviously, but I think this leads to low turnout Lab/Tory marginals.. Many Lab just wont vote, tacitly hoping for a Con win
There was an argument in one of the papers I saw recently, that people also use polls as a way to indicate discontent, without actually intending to follow through with their vote. Thus when the campaign started some former UKIP/Labour supporters indicated a switch to Tory when asked by pollsters, but are now returning to either abstaining or their original preference (or original preference in the case of former Lab UKIP voters) as the real vote approaches. This argument does seem credible.
Many people are used to online voting for talent shows etc. and it can feel more like a 'vote', which you can use to make a protest akin to a local or by-election, and less like a question.
Makes the move toward online VI polling problematic...
I would prefer May govt to Corbyn all day long, but I don't think Tories quite understand how difficult it is for someone who has voted Labour all their life to vote Conservative. I was chatting w the lady in the betting shop while backing UKIP to win Dagenham yesterday, and she (and her man who was there) had always voted Lab, cant have Corbyn at all, but just cant bring herself to vote Tory. My parents are the same, as am I to a certain extent. Small sample obviously, but I think this leads to low turnout Lab/Tory marginals.. Many Lab just wont vote, tacitly hoping for a Con win
Yep - I agree. Corbyn is a massive liability, but actively voting Tory is a step too far for many.
I think the evidence on the ground is stacking up for a TMICIPM big maj approaching landslide.
The Manchester Evening News report.
The Lab Uncut one
My own in NE Derbyshire.
Could well be bed at 22.05 on Thursday for me.
I do find the reports on the ground, including in my own patch, impossible to reconcile with the (most of) the polls. Of the two constituencies I oversee, Theresa May has been to Hemsworth twice and Wakefield not at all (though that said, the main manifesto launch would have been in Wakefield had we been able to source an appropriate venue at short notice). Even so, to visit somewhere like Hemsworth twice (and that would have been three times had we been able to arrange details for another visit), is completely inconsistent with a picture of a national net swing to Labour.
Quite what is going on, the gods only know. I assume that they're laughing.
Yes, it's odd - and what's Corbyn been doing in the Midlands Tory marginals? I think a possible explanation is that the Tories are continuing to record genuine substantial progress in working-class North/Midlands seats (cf. BigJohn's and David's comments) and Scotland (cf. polls), while falling back in London (cf. polls and Timmo note), Wales (cf. polls), and the East Midlands (cf. numerous doorstep reports). So CCHQ is piling into the north and traditional Labour seats, while Labour is attacking in London (Croydon Central will fall if anywhere does), Wales and the E Mids.
But can UNS really be that wrong? (Scratches head) Genuinely don't know.
Incidentally, the police numbers thing seems to be really cutting through on the doorstep.
I think the recent referendum makes UNS particularly useless as a model this time. All the pointers are toward some very different regional swings.
I would prefer May govt to Corbyn all day long, but I don't think Tories quite understand how difficult it is for someone who has voted Labour all their life to vote Conservative.
Quite, its fine to criticise Labour for targeting the youth vote who never turn up at the polling stations but May's tactic of trying to win the ex-Labour Northern WWC on the basis of Brexit and little else seems to me to have the same problem.
I still think the Tories will make less than 50 seats. When I read stuff like James Reed's posts it does sound like more votes piling up where they make little difference.
But can UNS really be that wrong? (Scratches head) Genuinely don't know.
It might well be that UNS works less well this time than in previous elections, for multiple reasons:
- Brexit and the collapse of UKIP - The apparent near-collapse of the LibDems - The fact that, to put it neutrally, Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbott are very different from the Labour top brass of recent elections - Increased polarisation by age - Theresa May parking her tanks (or at least seeking to) on lawns which Cameron found difficult to reach
As you say, there is some evidence of bigger regional differences in swing than we are used to. I'm inclined to think that's a real effect.
I do find the reports on the ground, including in my own patch, impossible to reconcile with the (most of) the polls. Of the two constituencies I oversee, Theresa May has been to Hemsworth twice and Wakefield not at all (though that said, the main manifesto launch would have been in Wakefield had we been able to source an appropriate venue at short notice). Even so, to visit somewhere like Hemsworth twice (and that would have been three times had we been able to arrange details for another visit), is completely inconsistent with a picture of a national net swing to Labour.
Quite what is going on, the gods only know. I assume that they're laughing.
Apart from Survation, none of the polls show a swing TOWARDS Labour. YouGov is essentially no swing and the others degrees of swing to the Conservatives. The chances of a Labour government on any of this polling is very slim.
I think the London attack is going to be a net negative for the tories, the issues around MI5 and police inaction will, fairly or unfairly, be seen as a governance problem. May has been PM or Home Sec since 2010 and the buck stops with her for these issues in the eyes of the public. I think the Enough is Enough narrative will fail to catch on as it is replaced by anger at why we didn't stop these people before. It won't have a big effect, but it will perhaps stop any consolidation of the security vote for May. People won't be humming the 'enough is enough' line as they go into polling booths.
Standing by my prediction of Tory majority of 50-80, but don't see a new landslide likely, as some on here have since predicted.
I think the evidence on the ground is stacking up for a TMICIPM big maj approaching landslide.
The Manchester Evening News report.
The Lab Uncut one
My own in NE Derbyshire.
Could well be bed at 22.05 on Thursday for me.
I do find the reports on the ground, including in my own patch, impossible to reconcile with the (most of) the polls. Of the two constituencies I oversee, Theresa May has been to Hemsworth twice and Wakefield not at all (though that said, the main manifesto launch would have been in Wakefield had we been able to source an appropriate venue at short notice). Even so, to visit somewhere like Hemsworth twice (and that would have been three times had we been able to arrange details for another visit), is completely inconsistent with a picture of a national net swing to Labour.
Quite what is going on, the gods only know. I assume that they're laughing.
Yes, it's odd - and what's Corbyn been doing in the Midlands Tory marginals? I think a possible explanation is that the Tories are continuing to record genuine substantial progress in working-class North/Midlands seats (cf. BigJohn's and David's comments) and Scotland (cf. polls), while falling back in London (cf. polls and Timmo note), Wales (cf. polls), and the East Midlands (cf. numerous doorstep reports). So CCHQ is piling into the north and traditional Labour seats, while Labour is attacking in London (Croydon Central will fall if anywhere does), Wales and the E Mids.
But can UNS really be that wrong? (Scratches head) Genuinely don't know.
Incidentally, the police numbers thing seems to be really cutting through on the doorstep.
Fine, but most likely Corbyn is simply going wherever he isn't unwanted by the Labour candidate?
Dear Morris Dancer old friend and colleague, if I point out that I realised some time ago that North Cadboll is in fact the outside edge of the County of Cromartyshire and not in Easter Ross, does that tell you who I am?
My instinct tells me that Theresa is not going to get an increased majority and that we are entering a period of very unstable Government. I am pleased that my Canadian trip was last month when I received a good exchange rate (1.75) as I expect that on Friday there will be a blood bath on the markets.
The irony is that Theresa is by far the best for dealing with this security crisis as labour would just not be able to take the hard decisions needed.
Still we are where we are and it looks increasingly likely to me that we are heading for a soft Brexit
Soft Brexit = firmer £, does it not?
Soft Brexit means a lot of positives in the economy but will fire up UKIP.
Also if Corbyn gets any way near having an influence over Brexit I want as close a relationship as possible with the EU to prevent his extremes on re nationalisation
I do not think your fears about the election will come to pass.
But I am reminded of the words of GK Chesterton: when men cease to believe in God they do not come to believe in nothing but will instead believe in anything. Substitute for 'God' conventional politics and for 'believing in anything' substitute Trumpism, Corbynism, populism etc.
We have an electorate which is gullible, weary, shell-shocked and infantalised. While I trust that the centre will hold and the toxic hard left will be consigned to oblivion, I cannot say that I am not just a little nervous.
I think the evidence on the ground is stacking up for a TMICIPM big maj approaching landslide.
The Manchester Evening News report.
The Lab Uncut one
My own in NE Derbyshire.
Could well be bed at 22.05 on Thursday for me.
I do find the reports on the ground, including in my own patch, impossible to reconcile with the (most of) the polls. Of the two constituencies I oversee, Theresa May has been to Hemsworth twice and Wakefield not at all (though that said, the main manifesto launch would have been in Wakefield had we been able to source an appropriate venue at short notice). Even so, to visit somewhere like Hemsworth twice (and that would have been three times had we been able to arrange details for another visit), is completely inconsistent with a picture of a national net swing to Labour.
Quite what is going on, the gods only know. I assume that they're laughing.
Yes, it's odd - and what's Corbyn been doing in the Midlands Tory marginals? I think a possible explanation is that the Tories are continuing to record genuine substantial progress in working-class North/Midlands seats (cf. BigJohn's and David's comments) and Scotland (cf. polls), while falling back in London (cf. polls and Timmo note), Wales (cf. polls), and the East Midlands (cf. numerous doorstep reports). So CCHQ is piling into the north and traditional Labour seats, while Labour is attacking in London (Croydon Central will fall if anywhere does), Wales and the E Mids.
But can UNS really be that wrong? (Scratches head) Genuinely don't know.
Incidentally, the police numbers thing seems to be really cutting through on the doorstep.
Fine, but most likely Corbyn is simply going wherever he isn't unwanted by the Labour candidate?
That's the most logical explanation I have heard yet of his curious itinery.
I would prefer May govt to Corbyn all day long, but I don't think Tories quite understand how difficult it is for someone who has voted Labour all their life to vote Conservative. I was chatting w the lady in the betting shop while backing UKIP to win Dagenham yesterday, and she (and her man who was there) had always voted Lab, cant have Corbyn at all, but just cant bring herself to vote Tory. My parents are the same, as am I to a certain extent. Small sample obviously, but I think this leads to low turnout Lab/Tory marginals.. Many Lab just wont vote, tacitly hoping for a Con win
Yep - I agree. Corbyn is a massive liability, but actively voting Tory is a step too far for many.
@MrHarryCole: BBC sources confirm Abbott was en route when she pulled out - and understand Emily Thornberry had to cycle to the rescue,
I suspect she was turned back at Oxford Circus tube (photo of her on the phone at Oxford Circus tweeted earlier) as that's the closest tube to Broadcasting House.
Dear Morris Dancer old friend and colleague, if I point out that I realised some time ago that North Cadboll is in fact the outside edge of the County of Cromartyshire and not in Easter Ross, does that tell you who I am?
The Klaxon's have been blaring all month! It took this long to rouse you?
My 'live' Fb is under my actual name and reflects my actual life but entirely omits any mention of my political interests... it is a politics-free haven.
Call the real me a very shy (card-carrying) Tory, that is, shy everywhere except here and in conversation (not online) with a few highly political friends. (When I was fitter, I was an activist but that was some time back and pre-Facebook.)
I live in an ultra-safe Tory constituency.
I have received 2-3 Tory messages daily throughout the campaign period, both positive and attacking Labour.
I think the London attack is going to be a net negative for the tories, the issues around MI5 and police inaction will, fairly or unfairly, be seen as a governance problem. May has been PM or Home Sec since 2010 and the buck stops with her for these issues in the eyes of the public. I think the Enough is Enough narrative will fail to catch on as it is replaced by anger at why we didn't stop these people before. It won't have a big effect, but it will perhaps stop any consolidation of the security vote for May. People won't be humming the 'enough is enough' line as they go into polling booths.
Standing by my prediction of Tory majority of 50-80, but don't see a new landslide likely, as some on here have since predicted.
It may well be in London but the problem is will voters vote Corbyn as a better choice on national security
Might steady some nerves or not re closeness of polling.
Perhaps some pollsters have gone down the path of Gerald Ratner, whilst others have not.
Truth is with the regional differentials we are only getting snapshots of what is going on. I expect this is the case in Yorkshire though. I'm struggling to believe there with be anything other than a decent swing to the Tories in East Midlands despite what Nick Palmer says, though appreciate he has greater intel than I do. For me places like Mansfield and Gedling are very likely to go Tory given the high UKIP vote to squeeze and I can see Corbyn and Abbott being massive drags not to mention the average voter age being on the high side.
Dear Morris Dancer old friend and colleague, if I point out that I realised some time ago that North Cadboll is in fact the outside edge of the County of Cromartyshire and not in Easter Ross, does that tell you who I am?
Aha! Welcome back Eas... sorry Mr Cadboll (wink)
Had me beat. It was far too good a post for a novice but I would never have guessed the poster.
I would prefer May govt to Corbyn all day long, but I don't think Tories quite understand how difficult it is for someone who has voted Labour all their life to vote Conservative. I was chatting w the lady in the betting shop while backing UKIP to win Dagenham yesterday, and she (and her man who was there) had always voted Lab, cant have Corbyn at all, but just cant bring herself to vote Tory. My parents are the same, as am I to a certain extent. Small sample obviously, but I think this leads to low turnout Lab/Tory marginals.. Many Lab just wont vote, tacitly hoping for a Con win
Yep - I agree. Corbyn is a massive liability, but actively voting Tory is a step too far for many.
It would be an interesting moral puzzle if I lived in a Lab-Tory marginal. As I live in a v safe Conservative seat I have the luxury of letting the Tories win rather than actively helping it
But as the SNP still won almost every seat in Scotland and 50% of the vote, compared with 45% in indyref - wouldn't that would suggest that it was NO voters, i.e the victorious side, that didn't bother voting as much in the following election? We could see a lot of EU ref brexiteers returning to non-voting status despite them saying they will vote this time.
Edit: I was commenting on a different tweet about Youth turnout in Scotland, I guess you since swapped it out for the LD one?
I do find the reports on the ground, including in my own patch, impossible to reconcile with the (most of) the polls. Of the two constituencies I oversee, Theresa May has been to Hemsworth twice and Wakefield not at all (though that said, the main manifesto launch would have been in Wakefield had we been able to source an appropriate venue at short notice). Even so, to visit somewhere like Hemsworth twice (and that would have been three times had we been able to arrange details for another visit), is completely inconsistent with a picture of a national net swing to Labour.
Quite what is going on, the gods only know. I assume that they're laughing.
Apart from Survation, none of the polls show a swing TOWARDS Labour. YouGov is essentially no swing and the others degrees of swing to the Conservatives. The chances of a Labour government on any of this polling is very slim.
Anything showing a Con lead of less than 6% is showing a swing to Labour, and more than just Survation has reported that.
I would prefer May govt to Corbyn all day long, but I don't think Tories quite understand how difficult it is for someone who has voted Labour all their life to vote Conservative. I was chatting w the lady in the betting shop while backing UKIP to win Dagenham yesterday, and she (and her man who was there) had always voted Lab, cant have Corbyn at all, but just cant bring herself to vote Tory. My parents are the same, as am I to a certain extent. Small sample obviously, but I think this leads to low turnout Lab/Tory marginals.. Many Lab just wont vote, tacitly hoping for a Con win
Yep - I agree. Corbyn is a massive liability, but actively voting Tory is a step too far for many.
It would be an interesting moral puzzle if I lived in a Lab-Tory marginal. As I live in a v safe Conservative seat I have the luxury of letting the Tories win rather than actively helping it
Being in a marginal makes you have great power & responsibility. Not been in a marginal for a while. With inevitable Lab/urban-rural/Tory polarisation, I am this time.
Quick question. The various examples of terminal cancer patients being "cured" and dying in penury. The terminally ill patients who posthumously overturn their "fit for work" judgements. The disabled being left to sit in their own filth having had their motability car and wheelchair and home help taken away. You alright with that? I clearly disagree with you on economics, but as a basic issue of humanity I want to hear you either defend it or decry it.
@ Rochdale
The fact is that you didn't arrive at your view of Labour or the Tories from a blank sheet of paper and via a careful and balanced evaluation of each's record. You hate the Tories and always have. Am I right? But as a 21st century human, you feel commendably embarrassed by this primitive and somewhat infra-dig hatred, and you understand that you need to furnish yourself with something you can kid yourself is a respectable excuse for harbouring it.
This requires you to seize on certain derelictions by the Tories while ignoring identical or far worse ones by Labour. If for the sake of argument we assume your last paragraph is true, it was equally true of Orwellian workhouses like Mid-Staffs, for example, where doctors had to prescribe food and water for the patients because otherwise the nurses let them die of hunger and thirst. This was even though - as we saw - Labour felt itself under no compunction whatsoever to limit how much it spent.
Likewise, when you try to argue that Labour's bloodshed in Iraq "was wholeheartedly supported by the Tories", that is an attempt to include the party that wasn't in government in the blame, so that no unique culpability can be argued to attach to Labour, right? The trouble with that is that the Tories supported it because they were lied to by a Labour Prime Minister. Had the government been truthful, there'd have been no war to support.
I accept that Blair being truthful is a preposterous counterfactual, like Hitler stopping in 1940, but Labour chose him and need not have.
All you demonstrate in trying to claim the moral high ground is that it's a poor strategy for any party because it's always going to backfire farcically. Whatever Labour comes up with is always and forever going to be trumped by Iraq. Lecturing and hectoring don't make this go away.
So we are left considering who's likelier to do a better job of managing the business of the state within its actual means? I could be wrong, but I think on Friday we'll wake up to a conclusive Tory majority because there's really only one pragmatic answer to that.
About 1% of taxpayers pay 25% of the income tax, and they will be off in a puff of smoke the day after Corbyn gets in. If that happens then the rest us (who have no choice) and the unborn (who have no vote) will be picking up the slack. I find that very worrying.
But as the SNP still won almost every seat in Scotland and 50% of the vote, compared with 45% in indyref - wouldn't that would suggest that it was NO voters, i.e the victorious side, that didn't bother voting as much in the following election? We could see a lot of EU ref brexiteers returning to non-voting status despite them saying they will vote this time.
Edit: I was commenting on a different tweet about Youth turnout in Scotland, I guess you since swapped it out for the LD one?
@isam Cruddas May well hold because people won't be able to bring themselves to vote AGAINST HIM specifically. It'd be rough if he was to be turfed out with the general tide.
My 'live' Fb is under my actual name and reflects my actual life but entirely omits any mention of my political interests... it is a politics-free haven.
Call the real me a very shy (card-carrying) Tory, that is, shy everywhere except here and in conversation (not online) with a few highly political friends. (When I was fitter, I was an activist but that was some time back and pre-Facebook.)
I live in an ultra-safe Tory constituency.
I have received 2-3 Tory messages daily throughout the campaign period, both positive and attacking Labour.
Messages from the Labour Party? Zero.
Make of that what you will.
I am the same - receiving daily emails from Theresa, Boris, Phil et al and asking me to share them on social media. I did not receive any e mails in 2015.
Might steady some nerves or not re closeness of polling.
Perhaps some pollsters have gone down the path of Gerald Ratner, whilst others have not.
Truth is with the regional differentials we are only getting snapshots of what is going on. I expect this is the case in Yorkshire though. I'm struggling to believe there with be anything other than a decent swing to the Tories in East Midlands despite what Nick Palmer says, though appreciate he has greater intel than I do. For me places like Mansfield and Gedling are very likely to go Tory given the high UKIP vote to squeeze and I can see Corbyn and Abbott being massive drags not to mention the average voter age being on the high side.
It will be carnage for Labour across the Midlands and in the north outside the Manchester/Merseyside corridor. It looks like steady as she goes in the rest of the country, with the outside chance of a gain or two in Scotland and London. Overall a Tory majority of around 100. All this despite a dire government and a PM whose severe limitations have become horribly apparent over the last few weeks.
In fact, but for May, Labour probably would have lost even more heavily; so the party should be thankful for small mercies.
"The family home of London Bridge terrorist Khuram Butt has been raided in Pakistan as it emerged the killer had worked at Westminster tube station and had access to tunnels under Parliament."
Thats a defence Alice. Their lives don't matter to you. And thats fine - we have a different set of values.
Because the treatment of people in this degrading manner is nothing to do with economics. We can afford basic human dignity. Its that this government chooses not to.
Its not even Conservative values. Yes Thatcher went to war with unionised heavy industry. But her government then invested heavily in redevelopment and chunky redundancy packages and maintained a high and guaranteed level of welfare to the out of work and sick and disabled. What this government does is an abomination to Tory values as well as mine.
That is very true. Don't want to sound disrespectful but I've heard foodbanks being discussed way more amongst my middle than working class friends. What Labour thinks people want to hear and what people actually want to hear are two very different things in my experience.
I've never understood the left's hatred of food banks. Surely looking after those in society who have very little should be exactly what they support?
We don't hate foodbanks. We are in favour of a decent standard of living for everybody, and we believe that the spread of voluntary-sector foodbanks assisted by churches and Tesco's public relations department points up the absence of a proper state welfare safety net, and that it also expresses Britain's fairly obvious trend towards becoming a third-world country, in which the filthy rich get even richer and loot everything that's not nailed down. It is a terrible indictment of policymakers in this country that so many must rely on foodbanks. We struggle to end these conditions. While they prevail, we strongly support foodbanks.
I would prefer May govt to Corbyn all day long, but I don't think Tories quite understand how difficult it is for someone who has voted Labour all their life to vote Conservative. I was chatting w the lady in the betting shop while backing UKIP to win Dagenham yesterday, and she (and her man who was there) had always voted Lab, cant have Corbyn at all, but just cant bring herself to vote Tory. My parents are the same, as am I to a certain extent. Small sample obviously, but I think this leads to low turnout Lab/Tory marginals.. Many Lab just wont vote, tacitly hoping for a Con win
Yep - I agree. Corbyn is a massive liability, but actively voting Tory is a step too far for many.
It would be an interesting moral puzzle if I lived in a Lab-Tory marginal. As I live in a v safe Conservative seat I have the luxury of letting the Tories win rather than actively helping it
I am in a safe Tory seat, too. Most of us will be after Thursday!
Slightly perturbed by the vitriol on this site. Surely the reality is that no one can tell which of the two clusters of polls is right. It might be very tight - there might be a solid majority. Given every pollster has a reputation on the line, I think it is a bit daft to impugn they are out to deceive. And we will know in 72 hours.
My 'live' Fb is under my actual name and reflects my actual life but entirely omits any mention of my political interests... it is a politics-free haven.
Call the real me a very shy (card-carrying) Tory, that is, shy everywhere except here and in conversation (not online) with a few highly political friends. (When I was fitter, I was an activist but that was some time back and pre-Facebook.)
I live in an ultra-safe Tory constituency.
I have received 2-3 Tory messages daily throughout the campaign period, both positive and attacking Labour.
Messages from the Labour Party? Zero.
Make of that what you will.
This is the Facebook election. 2010 was Cameron's shiny forehead on visible-to-all billboards, now we have no idea who is seeing what. Voters are U-boats and we are scrabbling around trying to invent sonar.
I would prefer May govt to Corbyn all day long, but I don't think Tories quite understand how difficult it is for someone who has voted Labour all their life to vote Conservative.
Quite, its fine to criticise Labour for targeting the youth vote who never turn up at the polling stations but May's tactic of trying to win the ex-Labour Northern WWC on the basis of Brexit and little else seems to me to have the same problem.
Yes, no criticism of Theresa, but a somewhat parochial lower middle-class Tory lady from the South East would struggle to understand the northern mindset - it really is a different world from hers. Moreover, most in the North would think her better suited to running the WI or the village flower-arranging society. I suspect Cameron, with his dashing officer-class mien, at least inspired a bit of Bronte-esque fascination in those parts.
There are actions backing up the talk of panic from CCHQ. For example people were going to be diverted from previously regarded safe south london seats on polling day to more marginal ones.. this has now been abandoned.
Not sure I understand this post? Who is supposedly panicking and diverting resources?
I cant say anymore sorry.. but its resource thatbwas going to go from a supposed safe Tory south london seat to one that needs help ie a marginal but they cant now because thatbseat isnt as safe as they thought.
Can see Labour doing well in London, but struggling to think what safe seat you are talking about? Maybe Battersea? Gavin Barwell might also be on the wrong side of a narrow defeat this time.
I think it's pretty obvious timmo is talking about Battersea being in trouble And the marginal is Croydon Central.
Which would meant they think the YouGov model is right.
I think the London attack is going to be a net negative for the tories, the issues around MI5 and police inaction will, fairly or unfairly, be seen as a governance problem. May has been PM or Home Sec since 2010 and the buck stops with her for these issues in the eyes of the public. I think the Enough is Enough narrative will fail to catch on as it is replaced by anger at why we didn't stop these people before. It won't have a big effect, but it will perhaps stop any consolidation of the security vote for May. People won't be humming the 'enough is enough' line as they go into polling booths.
Standing by my prediction of Tory majority of 50-80, but don't see a new landslide likely, as some on here have since predicted.
Yes, that's exactly how I feel, Paris.
I'm a born and bred Londoner, and have lived here most of my life. It is a tolerant and welcoming City but when moved Londoners are a force of nature. There's a sense of anger and outrage that my normally phlegmatic city dwellers rarely display, and I just do not see it playing to the PM's advantage. The locals are not a wildly political bunch but the fact she was Home Secretary for six years will not have gone unnoticed.
Personally I will be surprised if London does not trend Labour, even against the national trend.
@isam Cruddas May well hold because people won't be able to bring themselves to vote AGAINST HIM specifically. It'd be rough if he was to be turfed out with the general tide.
I like him, but I am quite big on UKIP there now. A party majoring on an anti Islam ticket cant be 33/1 in a traditional WWC area where jihadis are getting arrested
My 'live' Fb is under my actual name and reflects my actual life but entirely omits any mention of my political interests... it is a politics-free haven.
Call the real me a very shy (card-carrying) Tory, that is, shy everywhere except here and in conversation (not online) with a few highly political friends. (When I was fitter, I was an activist but that was some time back and pre-Facebook.)
I live in an ultra-safe Tory constituency.
I have received 2-3 Tory messages daily throughout the campaign period, both positive and attacking Labour.
Messages from the Labour Party? Zero.
Make of that what you will.
This is the Facebook election. 2010 was Cameron's shiny forehead on visible-to-all billboards, now we have no idea who is seeing what. Voters are U-boats and we are scrabbling around trying to invent sonar.
What really interesting about that is how BBC/Sky etc perceive it as a threat to their dominance.
My 'live' Fb is under my actual name and reflects my actual life but entirely omits any mention of my political interests... it is a politics-free haven.
Call the real me a very shy (card-carrying) Tory, that is, shy everywhere except here and in conversation (not online) with a few highly political friends. (When I was fitter, I was an activist but that was some time back and pre-Facebook.)
I live in an ultra-safe Tory constituency.
I have received 2-3 Tory messages daily throughout the campaign period, both positive and attacking Labour.
Messages from the Labour Party? Zero.
Make of that what you will.
This is the Facebook election. 2010 was Cameron's shiny forehead on visible-to-all billboards, now we have no idea who is seeing what. Voters are U-boats and we are scrabbling around trying to invent sonar.
That Sir, is a very good point. Most of us live in safe-ish seats and have no idea what is being seen online by those living in marginals or targets seats. It's not like the good old days when we could all see the huge billboards taking up space usually occupied by companies advertising products and services.
"The family home of London Bridge terrorist Khuram Butt has been raided in Pakistan as it emerged the killer had worked at Westminster tube station and had access to tunnels under Parliament."
Tunnels under Parliament, my arse. This is clever Tory PR. Someone knows their archetypes and how to put a "takeaway" into a headline. It smacks of brilliance, even. It plays to the "under the beds" meme, it plays to 17th century English history, it plays to "our institutions".
Meanwhile, I wonder what problems the Gulf crisis will cause in the British banking system in the near future, possibly the very near future.
That is very true. Don't want to sound disrespectful but I've heard foodbanks being discussed way more amongst my middle than working class friends. What Labour thinks people want to hear and what people actually want to hear are two very different things in my experience.
I've never understood the left's hatred of food banks. Surely looking after those in society who have very little should be exactly what they support?
We don't hate foodbanks. We are in favour of a decent standard of living for everybody, and we believe that the spread of voluntary-sector foodbanks assisted by churches and Tesco's public relations department points up the absence of a proper state welfare safety net, and that it also expresses Britain's fairly obvious trend towards becoming a third-world country, in which the filthy rich get even richer and loot everything that's not nailed down. It is a terrible indictment of policymakers in this country that so many must rely on foodbanks. We struggle to end these conditions. While they prevail, we strongly support foodbanks.
Have just come back from Vancouver and they have a dreadful homeless and foodbank problem rooted in drug abuse.
This is a problem throughout the West and unless drug abuse is resolved it will continue unabated forever
I would prefer May govt to Corbyn all day long, but I don't think Tories quite understand how difficult it is for someone who has voted Labour all their life to vote Conservative. I was chatting w the lady in the betting shop while backing UKIP to win Dagenham yesterday, and she (and her man who was there) had always voted Lab, cant have Corbyn at all, but just cant bring herself to vote Tory. My parents are the same, as am I to a certain extent. Small sample obviously, but I think this leads to low turnout Lab/Tory marginals.. Many Lab just wont vote, tacitly hoping for a Con win
Yep - I agree. Corbyn is a massive liability, but actively voting Tory is a step too far for many.
Why?
It's just a party.
Primarily because the Tories are led by a very poor Prime Minister who has assembled a team of non-entities and incompetents.
More philosophically, the track record of Tory governments is not great if you are sitting in a Labour heartland seat. The Tories have been in control for most of the last 50 years and overall have delivered very little. Because of FPTP, their focus is on where they have the best chance of winning (as is Labour's, of course).
My 'live' Fb is under my actual name and reflects my actual life but entirely omits any mention of my political interests... it is a politics-free haven.
Call the real me a very shy (card-carrying) Tory, that is, shy everywhere except here and in conversation (not online) with a few highly political friends. (When I was fitter, I was an activist but that was some time back and pre-Facebook.)
I live in an ultra-safe Tory constituency.
I have received 2-3 Tory messages daily throughout the campaign period, both positive and attacking Labour.
Messages from the Labour Party? Zero.
Make of that what you will.
This is the Facebook election. 2010 was Cameron's shiny forehead on visible-to-all billboards, now we have no idea who is seeing what. Voters are U-boats and we are scrabbling around trying to invent sonar.
This. It's the future: barely a national campaign, just highly targetted and intense local campaigns in the 150 or so seats that matter.
I think the London attack is going to be a net negative for the tories, the issues around MI5 and police inaction will, fairly or unfairly, be seen as a governance problem. May has been PM or Home Sec since 2010 and the buck stops with her for these issues in the eyes of the public. I think the Enough is Enough narrative will fail to catch on as it is replaced by anger at why we didn't stop these people before. It won't have a big effect, but it will perhaps stop any consolidation of the security vote for May. People won't be humming the 'enough is enough' line as they go into polling booths.
Standing by my prediction of Tory majority of 50-80, but don't see a new landslide likely, as some on here have since predicted.
Yes, that's exactly how I feel, Paris.
I'm a born and bred Londoner, and have lived here most of my life. It is a tolerant and welcoming City but when moved Londoners are a force of nature. There's a sense of anger and outrage that my normally phlegmatic city dwellers rarely display, and I just do not see it playing to the PM's advantage. The locals are not a wildly political bunch but the fact she was Home Secretary for six years will not have gone unnoticed.
Personally I will be surprised if London does not trend Labour, even against the national trend.
Slightly perturbed by the vitriol on this site. Surely the reality is that no one can tell which of the two clusters of polls is right.
Not picking on you - others have said the same - but I'm not sure the narrative about two clusters of polls is right. Take the last poll from each company, you have: 1 4 5 6 6 8 9 10 11 12. That's a pretty even spread (especially if you ignore Survation).
Comments
Not saying Labour *will* retake the seat, just that it's credible and the 5 (Betfair Sportsbook last I checked) is too long.
Also if Corbyn gets any way near having an influence over Brexit I want as close a relationship as possible with the EU to prevent his extremes on re nationalisation
Safe now. The Spectre of a visitation from Denis Skinner has happily vanished.
I think it is wrong and morally bankrupt to support labour who have no credible plan to pay for all the goodies they are trying to bribe voters with. Why else try and bung 11 billion to middle classes through student fees. At least the libdems have a credible costing for limited ambitions, shame they won't get to govern.
But if you want to recover your losses put £1.25 on East Lothian to go Labour.
Anyway, I must be off. Got sod all work done yesterday and I want to complete the proofread ahead of the election (and F1).
https://www.callyourgrandfolks.com/
"Folks"?
Normally they don't endorse a party.
I also understand that they had earlier in the campaign been pouring resources into Watson and Cooper's seats to stop a decapitation. I presume they are more relaxed now as the swing seems to have settled down.
That said, Jezza did it also, so perhaps they really are just winging it and don't really care how or why they get where they're going (lose, HP, win) as they are having the time of their life and never expected to be there.
Re East Lothian my feeling is the tactical unionist vote will get confused and the SNP will hang on although I'd back Labour to beat the Tories for second
At the moment the politicians have been dumb and allowed the reality of this to be deflected by valid arguments about corporate pay and taxes, loopholes and avoidance. They have allowed a myth to develop that if only everyone paid what they were supposed to under the current arrangements then we would be able to fund the welfare state, the NHS and everything else they demand.
This is why we need to deal with those things and close all the loopholes, force the companies to pay tax in the UK and make sure everyone pays what they are supposed to - not because it will provide all the money we need, but because it will burn away that last fig leaf that the left hide behind in their claims about what is possible I terms of state provision.
But can UNS really be that wrong? (Scratches head) Genuinely don't know.
Incidentally, the police numbers thing seems to be really cutting through on the doorstep.
http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0052970 - Conservatives are more emotion-driven than Liberals...
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25381287 - Leftists are more emotion-driven than Rightists...
300bn of debt added in the first 2 years of Coalition government down to Labour's plans. As the Coalition managed down the deficit, a very difficult task, Labour opposed every cut so it's a little rich of them to criticise the total debt.
Many people are used to online voting for talent shows etc. and it can feel more like a 'vote', which you can use to make a protest akin to a local or by-election, and less like a question.
Makes the move toward online VI polling problematic...
On the 11th of September 2014 Comres released a poll on Sindy covering just the Scottish Borders and Dumfries and Galloway.
In it they recorded 5-10/10 certainty to vote (which they used to get their headline figure) at 90%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Actual results
Yes 34%
No 66%
Turnout 87%
Yesterday the spread moved around quite a bit but seems to have stabilised now.
https://twitter.com/JamesReedYP/status/872017346600333313
Might steady some nerves or not re closeness of polling.
Perhaps some pollsters have gone down the path of Gerald Ratner, whilst others have not.
https://twitter.com/TelegraphNews/status/872028830910660608
- Brexit and the collapse of UKIP
- The apparent near-collapse of the LibDems
- The fact that, to put it neutrally, Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbott are very different from the Labour top brass of recent elections
- Increased polarisation by age
- Theresa May parking her tanks (or at least seeking to) on lawns which Cameron found difficult to reach
As you say, there is some evidence of bigger regional differences in swing than we are used to. I'm inclined to think that's a real effect.
Standing by my prediction of Tory majority of 50-80, but don't see a new landslide likely, as some on here have since predicted.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/871998549621444608
apologies re rehash of YP tweet - hadn't looked at the earlier contributions at that point.
But I am reminded of the words of GK Chesterton: when men cease to believe in God they do not come to believe in nothing but will instead believe in anything. Substitute for 'God' conventional politics and for 'believing in anything' substitute Trumpism, Corbynism, populism etc.
We have an electorate which is gullible, weary, shell-shocked and infantalised. While I trust that the centre will hold and the toxic hard left will be consigned to oblivion, I cannot say that I am not just a little nervous.
It's just a party.
Btw, someone a lot earlier downthread mentioned something in the Manchester Evening News being positive for Tezza?
Edit - thanks dr_spyn
My 'live' Fb is under my actual name and reflects my actual life but entirely omits any mention of my political interests... it is a politics-free haven.
Call the real me a very shy (card-carrying) Tory, that is, shy everywhere except here and in conversation (not online) with a few highly political friends. (When I was fitter, I was an activist but that was some time back and pre-Facebook.)
I live in an ultra-safe Tory constituency.
I have received 2-3 Tory messages daily throughout the campaign period, both positive and attacking Labour.
Messages from the Labour Party? Zero.
Make of that what you will.
Welcome back.
Edit: I was commenting on a different tweet about Youth turnout in Scotland, I guess you since swapped it out for the LD one?
SNP hold or LD gain?
The fact is that you didn't arrive at your view of Labour or the Tories from a blank sheet of paper and via a careful and balanced evaluation of each's record. You hate the Tories and always have. Am I right? But as a 21st century human, you feel commendably embarrassed by this primitive and somewhat infra-dig hatred, and you understand that you need to furnish yourself with something you can kid yourself is a respectable excuse for harbouring it.
This requires you to seize on certain derelictions by the Tories while ignoring identical or far worse ones by Labour. If for the sake of argument we assume your last paragraph is true, it was equally true of Orwellian workhouses like Mid-Staffs, for example, where doctors had to prescribe food and water for the patients because otherwise the nurses let them die of hunger and thirst. This was even though - as we saw - Labour felt itself under no compunction whatsoever to limit how much it spent.
Likewise, when you try to argue that Labour's bloodshed in Iraq "was wholeheartedly supported by the Tories", that is an attempt to include the party that wasn't in government in the blame, so that no unique culpability can be argued to attach to Labour, right? The trouble with that is that the Tories supported it because they were lied to by a Labour Prime Minister. Had the government been truthful, there'd have been no war to support.
I accept that Blair being truthful is a preposterous counterfactual, like Hitler stopping in 1940, but Labour chose him and need not have.
All you demonstrate in trying to claim the moral high ground is that it's a poor strategy for any party because it's always going to backfire farcically. Whatever Labour comes up with is always and forever going to be trumped by Iraq. Lecturing and hectoring don't make this go away.
So we are left considering who's likelier to do a better job of managing the business of the state within its actual means? I could be wrong, but I think on Friday we'll wake up to a conclusive Tory majority because there's really only one pragmatic answer to that.
About 1% of taxpayers pay 25% of the income tax, and they will be off in a puff of smoke the day after Corbyn gets in. If that happens then the rest us (who have no choice) and the unborn (who have no vote) will be picking up the slack. I find that very worrying.
I have had no e mail comms from any other party
In fact, but for May, Labour probably would have lost even more heavily; so the party should be thankful for small mercies.
"The family home of London Bridge terrorist Khuram Butt has been raided in Pakistan as it emerged the killer had worked at Westminster tube station and had access to tunnels under Parliament."
Because the treatment of people in this degrading manner is nothing to do with economics. We can afford basic human dignity. Its that this government chooses not to.
Its not even Conservative values. Yes Thatcher went to war with unionised heavy industry. But her government then invested heavily in redevelopment and chunky redundancy packages and maintained a high and guaranteed level of welfare to the out of work and sick and disabled. What this government does is an abomination to Tory values as well as mine.
Which would meant they think the YouGov model is right.
I'm a born and bred Londoner, and have lived here most of my life. It is a tolerant and welcoming City but when moved Londoners are a force of nature. There's a sense of anger and outrage that my normally phlegmatic city dwellers rarely display, and I just do not see it playing to the PM's advantage. The locals are not a wildly political bunch but the fact she was Home Secretary for six years will not have gone unnoticed.
Personally I will be surprised if London does not trend Labour, even against the national trend.
BREAKING: Conservatives likely to be 22 seats short of majority - YouGov election model.
WillS.
Meanwhile, I wonder what problems the Gulf crisis will cause in the British banking system in the near future, possibly the very near future.
This is a problem throughout the West and unless drug abuse is resolved it will continue unabated forever
More philosophically, the track record of Tory governments is not great if you are sitting in a Labour heartland seat. The Tories have been in control for most of the last 50 years and overall have delivered very little. Because of FPTP, their focus is on where they have the best chance of winning (as is Labour's, of course).
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/most-deprived-english-councils-suffer-biggest-cuts-in-spending-power-10045665.html
@jessicaelgot: "Of course, I don't mean to compare them to our European friends..." Boris clarifies